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Michael/Male/26-30. Lives in United States/Pennsylvania/Wexford/Christopher Wren, speaks English. Spends 20% of daytime online. Uses a Fast (128k-512k) connection. And likes baseball /politics.
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United States, Pennsylvania, Wexford, Christopher Wren, English, Michael, Male, 26-30, baseball , politics.

Sunday, June 20, 2004

Pitching Stats 2 - Home v. Road 

With all of the talk about Citizens being a hitter park few people have really talked about the effect that the park is having on Phils pitching stats. Citizens has been having some strange effects. Here are the facts of the case, ladies and gentlemen …

@Citizens Bank: WHIP / ERA
Wolf: 1.20 / 2.82
Myers: 1.21 / 3.52
Millwood: 1.41 / 4.62
Milton: 1.47 / 4.05
Padilla: 1.49 / 5.40

On the Road: WHIP / ERA
Wolf: 1.05 / 3.04
Myers: 1.59 / 4.61
Millwood: 1.56 / 5.13
Milton: 1.64 / 5.08
Padilla: 1.34 / 2.19

The most intriguing difference seems to be with the effect Citizens has on Myers and Padilla: Wolf is uniformly pitching well away and at home, while Milton and Millwood are uniformly pitching badly. (Yes, Milton is pitching badly, though you wouldn’t know it given the fact that he’s 9-1.)

Padilla? He seems to be pitching substantially better on the road than at home. His ERA is less than half on the road than it is at home! The data indicates that Padilla has played badly at home.

Myers, meanwhile, seems to pitch well at home. Bizarrely, given what we’ve been told about Citizen’s cozy contours giving up lots and lots of home runs, Myers has found a way to pitch better at home in a hitters park than on the road.

What really had me intruiged, though, was this:

Strikeouts per 9 innings: (home / away)
Wolf: 5.40 / 6.08
Myers: 6.46 / 6.37
Millwood: 8.76 / 5.70
Milton: 8.91 / 5.77
Padilla: 7.46 / 5.11

Look at the differences between Wolf & Myers and Millwood, Milton & Padilla: Millwood, Milton & Padilla strike out a lot more players at home than they do on the road while Wolf & Milton are fairly consistent. Myers and Wolf have had success at Citizens, and the other three haven't. It suggests that power pitchers accustomed to getting strikeouts are faring very badly at Citizens.

Notice that when Millwood, Milton & Padilla go on the road they strike out fewer guys than Wolf and Myers, but at Citizens they strike out substantially more. This brings up a puzzling question: why do those three have so much success in striking guys out at home and then turn ordinary on the road? (Or, why do Wolf & Myers have so much success by lowering their strikeouts at home and increasing them on the road?) It seems puzzling.

(It occurs, as I write this, that my method of analysis is sort of amateur scientistish: there are bigger variables at work here like whether Myers pitched in rainy conditions, against whom did he pitch, how much run support he got, etc. I draw broad conclusions based on the data before me. If I'm wrong, tell me and don't spare my feelings.)

As I said earlier, the starting pitching has been a bust, with the exception of Wolf. The relievers are turning in a terrific performance:

Home:
Rotation:
1.35 WHIP / 4.08 ERA
Bullpen: 1.33 WHIP ./ 3.94 ERA

Road:
Rotation: 1.47 WHIP / 4.28 ERA
Bullpen: 1.43 WHIP / 4.70 ERA

Each of the Phils relievers reacts differently to Citizens:

Billy Wagner pitches better at Citizens then on the road:
Home: 0.64 WHIP / 1.64 ERA
Road: 0.78 WHIP / 5.00 ERA

Tim Worrell is better on the road:
Home: 1.25 WHIP / 3.57 ERA
Road: 1.19 WHIP / 2.55 ERA

I thought that the stats were very interesting and illuminating. What does everyone else think?

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