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Michael/Male/26-30. Lives in United States/Pennsylvania/Wexford/Christopher Wren, speaks English. Spends 20% of daytime online. Uses a Fast (128k-512k) connection. And likes baseball /politics.
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United States, Pennsylvania, Wexford, Christopher Wren, English, Michael, Male, 26-30, baseball , politics.

Thursday, June 24, 2004

Thoughts on Moneyball... 

I finished Moneyball the other day and, after some reflection, I'm able to jot down a few random thoughts on the subject ...

Before I read Moneyball, thought about the Oakland A's, or even knew who Billy Beane or Bill James were I had read Michael Lewis' excerpt in Sports Illustrated last summer. (Actually I was dimly aware of Bill James: he had written an essay for the companion book to Ken Burns Baseball documentary.) It was a quick 12-14 page excerpt but it fired up my interest in the subject. I ended up stumbling upon Baseball Primer a few weeks later and I was hooked on sabremetrics. However, as I said in a recent post, I never really understood the ideas until I read about where they had come from and why James had lodged some of the complaints he had. Oliver Wendell Holmes' aphorism that a page of history is worth a volume of logic (said in the context of trying to explain America's archaic property laws) has never rang truer than when I began reading Moneyball . This past week or so I proceeded to re-read the content on sites like Hardball Times and Baseball Think Factory. Now I think that I am starting to get it.

-I think that Moneyball illustrates a problem with baseball: it is too inflexible, too unwilling to change. Compare baseball to football:

Football embraced television and created subsidiaries like NFL Films to help develop fan interest in the game. Baseball's use of television has me baffled: they have, to the best of my knowledge, nothing like NFL Films and the league has historically approached TV with trepidation. I'd like to see MLB try and cash in on HDTV and wide-screens.

Football embraced revenue-sharing on the idea that it is unfair to have one team with tremendous financial resources routinely pummel on the other teams. How much fun is it to watch the Yankees win every year? Not very. The A's prove that smart management can over-come limited finances, but most fans just assume their team will be gutted in the fall.

It is genuinely exciting to watch the NFL because every team has a shot. The Carolina Panthers were 1-15 two years ago and they just came within a few minutes of winning the Super Bowl. Teams with smart management strategies are the successful NFL teams (e.g. the Eagles, the Patriots, the Titans...) and the big-spenders stay home in the off-season (yes, I'm talking about the Redskins here). Aside from the A's, I don't really see that in MLB: the best teams are the ones willing to spend the cash: Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, etc. Teams like the Royals and Brewers can make runs at the top from time-to-time, but they are prepetually mired in a re-building process, while the Yankees are prepetually in contention. The A's have to be perfect. The Yankees can write-off bone-headed decisions.

(And in any case, I wonder how good the A's will be once Mulder, Hudson and Zito get the opportunity to test the free agent market. Even sabremetrics can only go so far towards finding talent.)

Fans in New York can quit whining about poorer teams cutting into their budgets: players will always gravitate towards New York because it is the largest media market in America and the center of the advertising universe. Athletes will want to play there or in LA because they have the opportunity to make a killing off of endorsements. Jeremy Shockey isn't the best tight end in football, but because he plays in New York he gets endorsements and gets his face on TV. The Chief's Tony Gonzalez is probably the best tight end in football, but you'd never know that.

-I was truly surprised to read that people derrided Beane as "arrogant". I didn't find anything particularly arrogant about his tone or statements in Moneyball. His dealing with Steve Phillips didn't indicate someone in love with themselves or positively dripping with contempt for those even the slightest bit less intelligent, as critics had complained. If you miked all of these GM's I'm sure they'd sound exactly alike.

It sort of reminds me of something my fiancee said about Jessica Simpson: People mock her for her ditsy comments, but if you'd mike anyone else and edit their questions and respones, that person would probably sound exactly the same. I'm sure that if you'd record these GM's conversations and then replayed them, they'd sound exactly like Billy Beane.

-I liked Lewis' writing style. I think he mixed up his individual stories about Bradford and Hatteburg enough (I note that, as I write this, that Hatteburg is leading the A's in Runs Created per 27 outs: 8.17) with the theories underpining sabremetrics and Beane's own journey to the subject. I wish that Lewis had talked about some of the internet resources like Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Primer a little more, but I can't complain. Lewis' prose flows and his communicates his ideas fluidly, though he often got repititious at times and the information he presented was cumulative.

-If I had to sum up Moneyball in two words it would be: "Risk Management". That is basically what the A's strategy is all about: lowering risk. They don't have to commit $10 million a year to Player A when they can get 50%-75% of the same production from Player B, who makes $500,000 a year. If Player B flops, the A's can cut him loose and move on. If Player A flops, the A's have to eat his salary for years and don't have a chance. It is odd that it took baseball this long to embrace the concept give that the rest of America has embraced it for years:

Lowering costs and maximizing profit are what the American economy is all about. Modern trends in American government and economic life like outsourcing, deregulation, privitazation are all about slashing overhead and trying to maximize production. The A's are really the first team to take this sort of mindset and apply it to baseball: work with limited overhead, cut guys loose without remorse, etc. (I was just thinking of the team's decision to cut Mike Magnante just days short of getting his pension. Cold to downsize him like that, but they needed Rincon.) The A's remind me of the corporation that slashes its payroll and imposes higher productivity requirements on its workers: they want fewer people on the payroll and they want the same (if not higher) production. Great for the team, lousy for the players.

-Further reading: I found this back-and-forth between ESPN's Rob Neyer and James Surowiecki of The New Yorker. I also found this article from Surowiecki about James that was interesting. (I found a review of Moneyball from the liberal American Prospect here. The Weekly Standard, a conservative magazine, reviewed it here.)
(Alright, gotta go. Everyone have a nice weekend!)

(BTW: I recently found out that my fiancée and her family are distantly related to A’s DH Erubiel Durazo. Small world.)

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How to Get Famous -- In only 90 Days!
by Joe Vitale

"I am indebted to the press of the United States for
almost every dollar which I possess..." -- P.T. Barnum,
1891

Charlie Stratton was a little boy who would not grow. He
was destined to be less than three feet tall.

His parents accepted the fact that he would never become
a full sized adult. The neighbors felt sorry for the nice
family and their midget. But no one saw an opportunity for
greatness. No one saw the potential for fame and fortune.
No one, that is, until one man came along in 1842 with an
eye for hidden possibilities. That man was P.T. Barnum.

Barnum taught the child to sing and dance. He taught him
to express himself, to accept how he looked, to feel good
about who he was. He also taught the boy how to charm and
entertain crowds. And he named the young prodigy a name
that still lives today: General Tom Thumb.

Years later, after Tom was rich and world famous, his
Connecticut neighbors would shake their heads and smile.
"We always thought little Charlie was a nice boy but not
very special," many said, "but we never knew he would
become a celebrity until Barnum took him and Barnumized
him."

P.T. Barnum took many people who were talented but
unknown and made them rich and famous. While Jenny Lind
was known as the greatest Swedish soprano in all of
Europe, few had any idea who she was in America. Yet
Barnum hired her, managed her, promoted her, and Jenny
Lind became so famous that 30,000 people met her ship
when it docked in New York in the mid 1800s. Again,
Barnum had practiced the art of "Barnumizing" someone.

And to prove that his techniques worked, when Lind
decided to save money and manage her own concerts
without Barnum's help, her crowds grew smaller. Lind
didn't get media attention. And she returned to Europe
without fanfare. Yet it was the same Jenny Lind that
the crowds had gone wild to see under Barnum's art!

That art is not lost today, of course. Throughout 1997
I smiled whenever I saw an article on the singer Jewel.
Here you have a woman barely out of her teens, with
only one CD released at the time, making front page
headlines and cover stories on national magazines.
Last I heard she had been hired to write her
autobiography (!) and was paid more than a million
dollars for it. Yet Jewel is barely an adult! How is
this happening? Clearly, Jewel is being Barnumized.

And that's how anyone can become famous today. You
need someone skilled in the art of Barnumizing. There
should be a latent talent or trait that can be
publicized, of course, but even that can be gotten
around. Richard Branson, the tycoon founder of many
businesses, including Virgin Records and Virgin
Airlines, Barnumizes himself by creating balloon
flights around the world. Whether he actually succeeds
at the trip doesn't matter. His events bring himself
international publicity. And he is not promoting any
talent except maybe the bold desire to be famous.

I've been personally fascinated by publicity and
publicists since I began researching P.T. Barnum a
few years ago. Here's a taste of some of the people
I've discovered:

* Harry Reichenbach was an audacious silent movies
publicist who made people famous in the early 1900s.
In fact, his incredible creative ideas helped stop
World War I.

* Edward L. Bernays helped make such stars as the
singer Caruso famous. And he got American women to
smoke with a publicity event he helped orchestrate
in 1929.

* And publicists today continue to Barnumize people
like chicken soup authors Mark Victor Hanson and
Jack Canfield. One reason Deepak Chopra remains a
bestselling author is the publicist behind him:
Arielle Ford.

But let's forget actors and actresses, authors and
speakers, singers and celebrities for a moment. What
about the average person? What about you? Can you be
Barnumized? Can you be made famous?

Without hesitation, I say yes. The secret is in
hiring a publicist who knows how to find or create a
news worthy subject out of you or something you do.

There isn't any one way to fame that fits for all
people. Sometimes all you need is one wild event to
draw attention to everything else you do:

* Barnum once showed a preposterous "Fejee Mermaid."
The curious half-monkey-half fish increased his
ticket sales 33%.

* In our own century a circus once displayed a
"Unicorn." While everyone knows unicorns aren't
real, ticket sales increased 55%. Again, the one
publicity stunt drew crowds to see everything else
being offered.

But you don't have to be wild and crazy to get
attention. In an article I wrote titled "Hidden
Selling," I talk about the various people who are
getting rich and famous by sponsoring events that
serve a good cause. Bill Phillips, for example, is
selling people on the idea of getting fit. He gives
away his book, and a video, and holds yearly
contests. He donates his money to the Make-A-Wish
Foundation. All of this is making Bill
internationally famous. How does he make any money?
He sells nutritional supplements. Back this fact is
"hidden." What Bill is doing is getting fame, and
then using that fame to make money. Very, very
smart.

One of the easiest ways to begin to seek fame is to
write a book. You still have to promote the book, of
course, but as an author you have an excuse to get
publicity. That's what Evel Knievel wanted when he
called me. He wanted me to help him write his life
story. He knew that a book could bring him more
fame. (I turned him down.) Many other people know
this fact, too, from Donald Trump to J. Paul Getty
to Madonna, and that's why they write (or hire
someone to write) books for them.

By now you've heard the quote from Andy Warhol that
in the future everyone will be famous for 15 minutes.
My belief is that if you create fame for yourself
that sticks, that fame will be a credential you can
bank on for the rest of your life.

Take Evel Knievel. His publicity stunts Barnumized
him in the 1970s. Yet we still know his name today,
thirty years later. He wedged his name into public
awareness through his fame tactics. And he's still
cashing in on his name. In fact, his name is so
strong that it has helped launch the career of
another daredevil: Evel's own son, Robbie Knievel.

Most people know the name Tom Thumb today, as well.
Why? The fame Barnum created for his little friend
still lives. Fame can do that for you, too. It can
become a lasting advertisement for who you and what
you do. From then on, everything you touch will get
automatic attention. Tom Thumb used to sell toys
and other products. So did Evel Knievel. As a
result of their fame, these otherwise mediocre
products sold. The products weren't important, it
was the name associated with the products. The more
famous the name, the more easily the products sold.
That's why Pepsi hires the latest hot stars to
appear in their commercials. Their fame brings
favorable attention to Pepsi.

But what if you can't afford a publicist? Easy.
What you have to do is become your own publicist
and Barnumize yourself.

Let me explain:

A year or so ago I wrote a news release that helped
make Jeff DeLong---barely 28 years old---wealthy.
The headline read:

50 Ways to Leave Your Lover (or anyone else);
Unusual cards don't greet, say Hit The Streets

Paul Krupin of the ImediaFax news bureau sent it
out by fax and email. As a result, Jeff did twenty
radio interviews the day his release hit. The
Associated Press picked up the story at least twice
and spread the word to the media nationally. The
number of times the story was reprinted is
impossible to tally. But as a direct result, Jeff's
website sales blasted to $20,000 a week.
(A week!)

What made his news release so successful?

1. There was news here.

I didn't have to dig too hard to see that Jeff's
greeting cards were newsworthy in and of themselves.
(You send his c-ya cards out when you *end*
relationships.) Too many people send out news
releases without any news. They are thinly disguised
ads. Editors hate ads. They want NEWS.

2. We tied it to current news.

Valentine's Day was right around the corner. While
Jeff didn't want to tie his release to that event,
I knew that doing so would cause the media to grab
his release. It helped make his news relevant.
Whenever you can tie your product or service to
existing news, you up the odds in being used by the
media.

3. We distributed the release to select media.

Paul Krupin hand picked a list of media contacts.
What you send out has to match the interests of
those receiving it. Don't send artillery news to
an anti-gun newspaper.

You can get publicity for virtually any product or
service. The media is desperate for news. Provide it
and they'll advertise your business. But how do you
find the right news angle? There are at least three
ways: (1) Have news, (2) invent news, or (3) tie
your business to current news.

Jeff's release was an example of one and three. (His
cards were news, and we tied it to Valentine's Day,
which was current news.) Here's an example of number
two: Inventing news.

When Barry Michaels in Australia hired me to write a
release for his clothing store, I had to hunt to
find the news angle. I talked to him and learned that
because he was getting bogus orders online, he
started calling virtually *everyone* who contacted
him. This turned out to be a breakthrough. Customers
were in awe that a retailer in Australia would call
them. Not only did Barry stop the bogus orders, but
he increased his sales with this extra personal
service. So I wrote a news release with this
headline:

Retailer Finds Way to Turn Bogus Orders Into Profit;
Australia teaches the globe how to make money online

As a result, the Investors Business Daily called him.
Since that is a national publication, Barry's news
release will turn into *thousands* of dollars in free
publicity. Very nice.

Finally, let me tell you what I did a few months ago.
In mid-June I bought a mermaid. Yes, a mermaid. P.T.
Barnum had one and I figured it would be cool if I
did, too. It turned out to be a disappointment and I
felt like an idiot for getting it. But then I saw a
publicity opportunity. So I wrote a news release
(using method number two) that began with this
headline:

Barnum Expert Suckered Into Buying "Real" Mermaid;
Discovers curiosity as powerful marketing tool

The response stunned me. The editor of the American
Legal Association's newsletter asked if they could
run the story. Radio hosts wanted to interview me.
An A&E Biography TV show on Barnum plugged my book,
causing my book to sell out overnight. Ah, I love
this!

The point is, news angles are everywhere. Start to
think like a reporter, get creative, and plug you
or your business *within* your story. It's the key
secret to getting rich and famous today----within
only 90 days---and with or without a mermaid!
 
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