A CITIZEN'S BLOG

Okay ... A Few More ....

2008-12-05T14:22:00.004-05:00

So here's the deal. I began this blog a looooong time ago, back in March of 2004. I did it as a lark when I was in law school to burn off a little steam. Over time it built into a bit of an obsession for me, consuming hours and hours and hours of my time. On the face of it, it seems a little silly: at best the readership of this blog is 150-200 people a day. Why do I do it?

I love baseball and I love the Phillies and I want to share those twin passions with you, the fan. So I plugged along, writing and writing and ultimately posting 999 posts before I felt burned out last year and quit on July 7th, 2008, writing my second "this is my final post" post. (I had previously quit in August of '05 only to return to the job in February of '06.) Watching the Phillies as a fan was cathardic. It was fun. I was worried that my posts were getting boring, that I was getting to be a snore. My own sense of it was that I was turning out some turgid prose.

So here is what I am going to do. I'm coming back. I got bit by the bug watching the Phillies win the World Series and I was kicking myself a little as I watched Brad Lidge toss the final strikeout. Wouldn't it be fun to write again? I'm betting it will.

So I'm back. With a catch: I won't be posting anything until March 2, 2009. Why am I putting off my return to so far into the future? Because, my dear reader, I have decided to marshall all of my energy into writing for six months. I'll be slaving away on posts from now until then that won't even see the light of day until March because I want to write the definative account of the 2009 season, from beginning to end, which I will expand upon at the end of the season into my long-discussed, long-planned book, which I have tenatively entitled Still the Team to Beat: A Blogger's Story of the 2009 Philadelphia Phillies. My 2009 posts will be, effectively, the first draft of that book. That's the plan at any rate.

So that's it. I'll see you on March 2nd. 'Til then if you want to reach me, email me at citizensblog at gmail dot com. Enjoy!

Nine Hundred and Ninety-Nine.

2008-07-07T09:31:00.005-05:00

This is my 999th post at a Citizen's Blog. It will also be my last.

I began this blog a loooong time ago, way back in March of 2004. Blogging was very new and interesting to me and was a terrific means of blowing off steam in a time of great stress: studying for the bar exam and helping my wife plan our wedding. Since then I've written 998 posts detailing very little thing I could think of about my favorite team. In the interim, I passed the bar exam, got married, bought a house, got my career started. But in the past few months I've been getting tired of the daily blogging grind. Recently I took on extra responsibilities at my office. More work, more time, more stress. No longer has blogging been a stress-reliever. Now I get done with a trial and I have to remind myself: it's been two days since you've posted. Better find something interesting to talk about. I've felt the quality of my work decline for some time. My prose has become more wooden and mechanical. My passion is clearly not present. Lots of people have hobbies and this was mine. Not any more.

These ought to be exciting days to be a Phillies blogger. This team is playoff-bound and could very well play in the World Series. This team could be a champion. These are the days to be a Phillies fan. And that's what I am going to go back to being. A fan. I just want to sit on my couch and watch and not think about something interesting to write about. I just want to be. When I saw the number count on my posts this morning, I knew it was the right move to make. 999 posts. Just one short of that golden 1,000. It's like being a Phillies fan. Just one thing, one win, one player, one moment, short of greatness, of happiness, of contentment.

That's what I plan to be from here on out. A fan. Not a blogger. Not a fan-journalist. Just a fan.

I plan to direct my energies elsewhere. I can't get the baseball bug out of my skin. I plan to write some longer articles on topics that interest me and try to get them published elsewhere. The idea of writing a book has always appealed to me and maybe now I'll have the energy to make that happen. Let's see. But in the here and now I'm content to leave A Citizen's Blog stand alone at 999. My body of work, my legacy.

Go Phillies.

Brotherly Love: Phillies vs. A's Preview

2008-06-24T06:07:00.007-05:00

Once upon a time, Philadelphia had two baseball teams. They played in different stadiums, in different leagues, and had different fans. If you came from the city’s blue-collar, predominately Italian neighborhoods and were a Democrat, you went to the Baker Bowl* to root for the Phillies. If you were Irish, middle-class and a Republican, you journeyed to Shibe Park and rooted for the Athletics. While Phillies fans sat through decades of defeats – between 1918 and 1948 the team had a losing record every season but one, a 78-76 campaign in 1932 – the Athletics had a few good teams.

* The Phillies and A’s shared Shibe Park starting in 1938.

Owned by the mild-mannered Connie Mack, the Philadelphia Athletics won the American League pennant in 1902, 1905, 1910, 1911, 1913 and 1914, winning the World Series in ’10, ’11 and ’13. Forced to disband his team, which featured the $100,000 Infield of Home Run Baker, Eddie Collins, Jack Barry and Stuffy McInnis, due to finances after losing the ’14 World Series to the Boston Braves, Mack returned the A’s to glory in the late 1920’s. The A’s finished second to the mighty New York Yankees in ’27 and ’28 before dethroning them in 1929, featuring a team that might be one of the finest in baseball history. (Click here for a terrific story that ran in Sports Illustrated a few years ago about the ’29 – ’31 Athletics and how their greatness has been lost to history.)

The ’29 A’s repeated as champs in ’30 and won the A.L. pennant again in ’31 before returning to mediocrity. As the cross-town Phillies rose in the late ‘40s, the A’s plodded along before they joined baseball’s westward movement and left Philadelphia after the ’54 season for Kansas City, where they became the western-most franchise in baseball before the Dodgers and Giants moved to the West Coast in 1958. The A’s would sit in Kansas City for another decade, existing as a virtual farm team of the New York Yankees, selling them stars like Roger Maris and Clete Boyer, before leaving for the San Francisco Bay Area in 1967, whereupon they became the Oakland Athletics.

Today, many Philadelphia sports fans don’t know about the A’s and their history in Philadelphia, which is too bad. Even before I read Moneyball and came to admire Billy Beane, the A’s were my second-favorite team in baseball. How could you not love Philadelphia’s other baseball team, those long-lost sons living on the West Coast? The A’s turbulent history, their decades of terrible baseball interwoven with two great dynasties (’10 – ’14 and ’29 – ’31), symbolizes how fleeting triumph and success were to Philadelphia in the early-1900s. As much as the Phillies struggles with racial issues in the latter half of the century mirror society’s own struggles with race, the Athletics symbolize how the city of Philadelphia struggled along to find success but was so frequently over-shadowed by that behemoth to the north of us: New York City.

Before I dive too much into tonight's Phillies - A's preview, I want to include a link to the Philadelphia A's Historical Society website. I love the work that they've done. I haven't had a chance to visit their Museum, which is located in Hatboro, but I plan to one of these days. Their web site is phenomenal and is a terrific resource of information. These guys are an under-appreciated treasure.

So the Phillies swing out to the West Coast to do battle with the Oakland A's before heading to Dallas, Texas, to take on the Rangers. The A's - Phillies matchup ought to be a good one, only the third time in history that these two teams have met. The A's, of course, are well-known throughout baseball for their pioneering Moneyball-approach to the game, which has enabled them to remain competitive despite having a fraction of the payroll of the rest of baseball. These days the A's are a different team from the walks-and-homers squad that Miguel Tejada and Jason Giambi led to division titles between 2000 and 2003. Peter Gammons forecasted this back in '04 when he noted that the market at the time was under-valuing fielding and that teams like the A's were moving to emphasize the fielding component of the game.

Sure enough, fielding, not walks-and-homers, is the A's forte these days. At +28 Fielding Plays, the A's are the top defensive team in the A.L., a fact that helps keep the A's team ERA at 3.41, lowest in the A.L. after the White Sox. The A's ought to send their best pitcher to the mound tonight, Joe Blanton. This will be an interesting game partly because Blanton has been on the radar of a number of MLB teams as a trading prospect. I believe that the Reds were connected to Blanton at one time or another. Don't be surprised if the Phillies swing a trade for the enormously talented Blanton later this season. He would be a terrific fit for the Phillies: in 2007 he allowed just 40 walks and 16 home runs in 230 innings of work (1.6 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9).

Offensively the A's aren't what they were in the early part of the decade. Their .330 OBP is below league average and their .378 slugging percentage is one of the worst in the A.L. This is a team that is still maturing. I'm not sure that Jack Cust (11 Home Runs, 34 RBI, .416 OBP) is the answer, but they need more bats to protect him.

I'll comment again tomorrow, but that is all for today.

'77 vs '08: Which is better?

2008-06-23T06:26:00.026-05:00

Well, the Phillies pretty much got their asses kicked by the Angels and their pitching staff. This weekend's sweep at the hands of the Angels caps a five-game losing streak. The Phillies have lost seven of their last eight games since they clocked the Cardinals 20-2 on Friday the 13th of June. They need to righten ship and it will be interesting to see what they do against the A's in Oakland starting tomorrow night, which starts a six-game road trip to the Bay Area and deep into the heart of Texas for the Phillies. More on that tomorrow. Today's topic:

The Daily News Bill Conlin just published a pretty good piece comparing the '77 Phillies offense to the '08 Phillies. I thought it was worth following up with my own thoughts on the subject.

A little bit of history: the '77 team was a monster, the second consecutive Phillies team to win 101 games and was generally regarded as being better than its '76 predecessor, which got swept by the Big Red Machine in the '76 NLCS. The '77 team, which was managed by Danny Ozark, seemed fated to face-off with the Yankees in a rematch of the 1950 World Series, but the '77 team fell to the L.A. Dodgers 3-1 in the NLCS. The '78 team won 90 games and returned to the NLCS but were once more unceremoniously beaten by the Dodgers 3-to-1. Danny Ozark was dumped by the Phillies in '79 after failing to win the N.L. East and the team marched on to its climactic date with history in '80.

The '77 team was probably the best team in Phillies history after the '80 (and possibly '81) team(s), so it is worth looking at the '08 team and wondering if we are looking at a team that will occupy the pantheon of legendary Phillies teams. Here is Conlin's article:

Bill Conlin: Phillies' 2008 offense might be better than 1977 powerhouse

By Bill Conlin
Philadelphia Daily News
Daily News Sports ColumnistTODAY'S EXERCISE: Match up the best offensive Phillies team you've seen in days of yore with a 2008 offense that might be the best in franchise history. But first, some observations:

Psychological trauma, sports- team-collapse variety, often leaves reality gaps in our memories.
Black Friday of 1977 - Game 3 of the NLCS against the Dodgers - is known as "The 10-Minute Collapse." But the actual moment of truth, Manny Mota's two-out fly to the warning track in left that Greg Luzinski failed to catch, was more like 10 seconds, counting the wild relay throw that set up the rest of the inning.

A black hole of denial surrounds that loss. The Phillies had two more possible home games to atone for the baseball crimes committed while squandering that 5-3 lead. And Steve Carlton vs. Tommy John in Game 4 seemed to flip the odds back in the Phils' favor. But the veteran lefthander outpitched Lefty in a swirling mist of rain. Thirty-one years later, The 10-Minute Collapse is all that remains.
In Game 6 of 1993, what if Joe Carter had popped up? Was there a guarantee that Curt Schilling would have beaten the talented Blue Jays in a Game 7?

But this is about offense, the run-scoring kind, not the kind of offense that scars our souls.
It comes down to either a '77 team that won 101 games or the '93 upstarts who won 97 on the way to an easy NL East title. One will face off with a 21st century attack that appears headed for special status.

Each was prolific. But their approaches to offense could not have been more different. The scalawags and rascals of '93 took a grinding, relentless approach to the business of scoring 877 runs. One number tells most of it: an on base-percentage of .351, commendable for an individual, but insane for an entire team.
Unlike the 2008 mashers, who specialize in late-inning lightning, the 1977 team ended a lot of games early. After the Phils sent a pitcher to an early shower one night, a scout cracked, "The least this team could do is wait until the fans got to their seats." And the '77 team could longball an opponent from any spot in the lineup - even No. 9. Carlton batted .268 with three homers and 15 RBI. Larry Christenson also hit three with 13 RBI.

The 77ers hit .279 as a team, pounded 186 homers and finished with a .346 OBP and .448 slugging average.
But they accomplished those numbers playing in Veterans Stadium, a so-called "neutral" ballpark. The Pirates, Cardinals and Reds played in similar all-purpose yards. There was no interleague play, no Rockies or D-backs, no spate of new retro-parks, most with hitter-friendly dimensions. Suffice it to say, these Phillies would not be on the scoring and homer pace they are on playing by '77 parameters. And Mike Schmidt's Phillies might have put up epic numbers playing in Citizens Bank Park.

But the structures of both teams are similar enough for side-by-side comparisons regardless of ballpark and era gaps. In fact, some key 2008 stats are on track to wind up eerily similar. This team projects to hit a club- record 235 homers. That team hit 186, led by Greg Luzinski's 39 and Mike Schmidt's 38, and a total of seven players homered in double figures. Chase Utley, Pat Burrell and Ryan Howard are already in double figures with 97 games remaining. Pedro Feliz, Jason Werth, Geoff Jenkins and Chris Coste are on track for double-digit dongs and could make seven, as well.
Those Phillies scored 847 runs. These Phillies are on an 857 pace. That's close. As for the dreaded strikeouts, the '77 gang whiffed an economical 806 times. Charlie Manuel's Big Wind Machine is headed for 1,054. But . . . An amazing seven National League teams have struck out more this season than the Phils' to-date total of 423. Take away Howard's obscene 87 and you're looking at Club Contact.

In their 65th game of the 1977 season, the Phils engaged basically the same Big Red Machine that swept them in the '76 LCS (Hello, Rockies). It was 9-9 after six. Christenson gave up seven and Ron Reed gave up a pair. But the Phils scored six unanswered runs while Tug McGraw was finishing with three scoreless innings.
PITA (Pitchers In Traction Again) would be aghast at such abuse.

But Tugger was not the headline. My piece saluted "The Mouse That Roared." In the seventh inning, shortstop Larry Bowa pounced on a fastball from former teammate Joe Hoerner and ripped it to left-center for the only grand slam of his career. It was a grab-a-towel-and-fan-your-fainted-teammate moment.
Another thing stands out from that Game 65: The victory left the second-place Phils with an underwhelming 36-29 record. They trailed the Cubs by an alarming 6 1/2 games.

General manager Paul Owens had been unhappy with the production at the top of Danny Ozark's lineup. Second baseman Ted Sizemore had been a great No. 2 hitter behind Lou Brock in St. Louis, but the slap hitter didn't have a great basestealer to protect here.
The trade deadline in 1977 was June 15. The Phils were in Cincinnati and the press box emptied when the Reds announced they had just traded for Mets ace Tom Seaver. Owens and Minister of Trade Hugh Alexander quietly returned to the hotel the homeward-bound Phils already had checked out of and completed a far more significant deal. The Pope sent some top prospects to the Cardinals for rightfielder Bake McBride.

McBride - "Shake and Bake" - was soon leading off for a lineup that finally was stabilized. Garry Maddox, never comfortable leading off, batted No. 2. Sizemore's weak bat was moved to the back of the order.
McBride and Maddox put up numbers similar to those Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino have been putting up this season. You'll agree Mike Schmidt and Chase Utley are a fine match in the No. 3 hole. Ditto Luzinski and Howard batting cleanup. The Bull hit .309 and drove in a career-high 130 runs. Despite his troubles, Howard is on pace for 122.

Like Charlie Manuel, Ozark was blessed with a versatile bench and his reserve outfield and pinch-hitting options included Jay Johnstone, Jerry Martin and Ollie Brown. His infield reserves included unselfish Terry Harmon and walking-baseball encyclopedia Davey Johnson, a pennant-winning manager in waiting. Tim McCarver caught Lefty. Bob Boone caught everybody else.
The Phillies made up for a quiet 1977 hurricane season. After the All-Star Game, they were a Category 5 baseball storm. They had cut the Cubs' lead to 2 1/2 games by taking three of four going into the break. But by July 29 they had sagged to third place, three out of the lead and had been downgraded to a Tropical Fraud.

But on Aug. 23, they led the Pirates by 7 1/2 games. They had cracked the race open with the hottest stretch in franchise history, going 21-2 with a 13-game winning streak between losses to go 33 games over .500. In one stretch, they scored 10 runs in four straight games.
The Phillies' current 12-2 run and weekend sweep of the Braves is starting to look eerily similar to the '77 drive from chaser to chasee.

Both teams had extreme longball power. But a complementary ability to extend innings and add on runs when the longball is lacking is a shared characteristic.
The game has changed immeasurably since 1977, making comparisons almost pointless. But good hitters are good hitters in any era. Mike Schmidt never had the kind of so-hot-it's-silly roll Chase Utley has been on so far this year. But how many of those frequent warning-track flies No. 20 hit in the Vet and similar cookie-cutter stadiums would be into the flowers and beyond in the Money Pit?

If I had to pick the one Phillies lineup I would least like to face, it would be . . .
The 1977 Phillies playing in Citizens Bank Park. But that's a fantasy reach, isn't it?

Charlie Manuel's team playing in the Vet, the Money Pit or even in Yellowstone Park represents a dry-mouth game for any pitching staff.
You are watching the most potent Phils lineup of my time. And yours.

It's a nice article and I agree with a lot, but with a few comments. I'll start with a broad overview of the Phillies lineups in '77 and in '08 and what numbers they produced. First, here is the '77 lineup:

RF - Bake McBride (11 Home Runs, 55 Runs Scored, 149 OPS+, 27 steals in 31 tries)
SS- Larry Bowa (.313 OBP, 32 steals in 35 tries)
3B- Mike Schmidt (38 Home Runs, 101 RBI, 151 OPS+)
LF- Greg Luzinski (39 Home Runs, 130 RBI, 156 OPS+)
1B- Rich Hebner (18 Home Runs, 62 RBI, 126 OPS+)
CF- Garry Maddox (14 Home Runs, 74 RBI, 22 steals in 28 tries)
C- Bob Boone (11 Home Runs, 66 RBI)
2B- Ted Sizemore (.345 OBP, 25 Grounded Into Double Play)
Pitcher

And here is the '08 Phillies:
SS- Jimmy Rollins (6 Home Runs, 33 Runs Scored, 14 steals in 14 tries, 110 OPS+)
CF- Shane Victorino (.347 OBP, 14 steals in 17 tries)
2B- Chase Utley (22 Home Runs, 62 RBI, 152 OPS+)
1B- Ryan Howard (19 Home Runs, 63 RBI, 105 OPS+)
LF- Pat Burrell (18 Home Runs, 47 RBI, 159 OPS+)
RF - Geoff Jenkins (
3B- Pedro Feliz (.316 OBP, 10 GIDP, 8 Home Runs, 33 RBI)
C- Carlos Ruiz (.311 OBP, 8 GIDP, 2 Home Runs, 20 RBI)
Pitcher

The '77 Phillies hit 186 Home Runs, 56 Triples, 286 Doubles, 135 steals in 203 tries (66.5% success rate), and scored 847 runs (5.23 runs per game).

The '08 Phillies are on a pace to hit 225 Home Runs, 26 Triples, 315 Doubles, 112 steals in 127 tries (88.1% success rate), and score 860 runs (5.31 runs per game).

Obviously the '77 and '08 teams have to be viewed through the prism of their respective times. Baseball in the 1970's was a game that balanced speed with power. The '77 Pirates, for example, stole 260 bases and hit 133 Home Runs. Baseball in 2008 is gradually moving towards a greater embrace of speed (home runs are down, stolen bases ought to be more frequent soon as teams shift tactics), but right now power is still where it is at. The OPS of the N.L. in '77 was .724. The OPS of the N.L. this season is .741.

That makes a good point of departure: how well did the '77 and '08 teams do compared with the rest of the league? How much did they exceed the league average? Well, the '08 Phillies have an adjusted OPS (team OPS / lg OPS = OPS+) of 108, which is second in the league after the Cubs (110 OPS+). The '77 Phillies have an OPS+ of 114, which tied them with the Cincinnati Reds. Advantage: '77 Phillies. The exceeded the league standard by a wider margin. Yes, the '08 Phillies have some nice power, but they are doing that in an era where power rules.

Okay, let's compare various aspects of each team. Speed? Well, the obvious temptation there is to award it to the '77 team. They stole 135 bases and ran 203 times during the season and hit twice as many triples as what the '08 team is projected to hit. Obviously they were faster, right? Not so fast. First off, obviously the '07 team was a little faster than '08: Victorino and Rollins are doing a nice job this year but they lack Michael Bourn and his exceptional 18 of 19 steals. The '77 team ranked fourth of twelve teams in successful steals. The '08 team ranks sixth of sixteen teams. That's pretty comparable. What pops out is the relative success rate: 88% success rate of the '08 team. The '08 team has been caught just 7 times and are on pace to be caught just 15 times this season. The '77 team was caught 68 times, which was fifth in the N.L. Sure, Bake McBride (27 for 31) and Larry Bowa (32 for 35) were great, but the rest of the team was just 76 for 137 (55%). Ted Sizemore, who hit in the #2 slot for much of the early part of the season, was caught on 11 of his 19 steal attempts.

The '08 team, even excluding Rollins and Victorino, has an impressive steal rate: 23 in 27 tries. Chase Utley is six-for-six. Eric Bruntlett, who filled in during J.Roll's stint on the DL, was six-for-seven. Jayson Werth? He's seven-for-eight. As for triples, both Victorino and J.Roll have missed time. I think that the speed numbers of the '08 are going to climb as the season progresses and you'll see the '08 team finish in the top three in the N.L. in triples and steals. Advantage: actually I'm giving it to the '08 team, narrowly.

The Vet vs. Citizens Bank: there is a big difference in terms of the stadiums the two teams play in. First, there is The Vet, the massive concrete bowl that the Phillies played three and a half decades in. The general consensus of thought is that The Vet was a park that suppressed offense and made things easier for pitchers. Citizens Bank, with its short fences, is seen as a hitters park, so the '08 team gets an artificial bump here. So you'd expect the numbers to reflect that, right? Except ...

The '77 Phillies scored 5.59 runs per game at home. They are very difficult to beat at The Vet, winning 60 of 81 games there. They averaged just 4.86 runs on the road.

So what do you think of the '08 team? Probably out-score themselves pretty heavily at Citizens Bank, right? The '08 Phillies average 5.13 runs per game at home. They average 5.59 runs on the road. Surprised? I was.

In the final analysis, it is a little too early to see how the '08 and '77 Phillies stack up to each other. It is just the middle of June and it is worth remembering that Bake McBride, who helped spark the Phillies to the '77 pennant, wasn't acquired until June 15th of '77. Will the Phillies swing a deal and bring in another bat? Will they be forced to deal someone to get pitching help? We'll have to see. My take on the '77 and '08 teams is that they defy easy explanations. The '08 team is a lot quicker and more balanced than they are given credit for, but the '77 Phillies were a more powerful group than they've been recognized for being. It is a close call but in the end ... I agree with Conlin and give it to the '08 Phillies. Let's see if they hold onto their title ...

Small Ball vs. Big Ball: Angels vs. Phillies Preview

2008-06-20T08:34:00.001-05:00

Big Ball vs. Small Ball.

East Coast vs. West Coast.

Urban vs. SoCal.

Today begins a three-game series at Citizens Bank Ballpark between the Phillies and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, as the team formerly known as the California Angels and Anaheim Angels prefers to be called these days. I've very intrigued by the differences and contrasts provided by today's series. In terms of geography and culture, Philadelphia and Metro L.A. couldn't be further apart, the former being a gritty East Coast city featuring a fierce, blue-collar work ethic and artery-clogging cheesesteaks vs. the latter, a West Coast city with pretty people who dine on healthy cuisine and only healthy cuisine. The contrast in styles on the baseball diamond is astonishing too: the Phillies are probably the closest thing that the National League has to a Moneyball team, a team that emphasizes walks and home runs over bunts and steals, while the Angels are the epitome of small ball, always fighting and clawing for runs in the dirt, a delicious contrast to SoCal's effete image.

Trace the Angels small ball attitude back to their manager, Mike Scioscia, the former Dodgers catcher and Upper Darby native who brought a classically National League perspective to managing the Angels. Since taking over the Angels in 2000, Scioscia has guided the team to a 745-621 record (.545), four playoff berths ('02, '04, '05, and '07), and a World Series title in 2002. Scioscia's weapons have been bunting and stealing bases.

The 2008 Angels are an interesting crew, clearly better than the rest of the A.L. West, but still just a few games ahead of the surprising Oakland A's, whom the Angels can be expected to out-spend nearly two and a half to one this season (Angels payroll: $118 million to the A's $47 million dollar payroll). The Angels are a good team, but they feel like one that is under-achieving. Offensively, the Angels rank ninth in the fourteen team A.L. in home runs and tenth in slugging percentage. That partly helps to explain why they rank eleventh in runs scored.

What really explains the Angels struggles is this: they are really struggling at small ball this year.

What is small ball? Generally, small ball tends to be three things: 1) Bunting, with an emphasis on sacrifice bunting to move runners over; 2) Base-stealing; and 3) Clutch hitting. The '02 Angels were masters of this approach: their .290 batting average with runners in scoring position was tied for best in the A.L.; they stole 117 bases, which was third-best in the A.L.; and they led the A.L. in sacrifice hits with 49. That's a team that successfully executes a small ball approach to baseball.

The '08 Angels? Not so much. While they rank third in the A.L. in steals again, their 55 steals are off-set by the fact that they have been caught 22 times, so their 71% success rate means they aren't getting much benefit from running on the bases. Oh, and the Boston Red Sox, that Moneyball team, has more stolen bases, with 64. Surprisingly, the Angels rank twelfth in sacrifice hits with just 11. Finally, the Angels are ninth in batting average with runners in scoring position (BA/RISP) at .268, which is just a little better than the A.L. average of .267. The Angels problem is that they aren't getting guys on base: the team OBP is an awful .318. Garrett Anderson's OBP is .287. Torii Hunter, the team's marque free agent signing during the off-season, has just nine home runs and 33 RBI. Vlad Guerrero, the team's usually reliable slugger, has really struggled in '08: ten home runs and 35 RBI. Assuming that Vlad plays in 90% of the Angels games and continues at his current pace, he ought to have 80-85 RBI this season, which is terrible production from your clean-up hitter.

The Phillies are quite the contrast: the Phillies Isolated Power at the plate (Slugging Percentage minus Batting Average, which is basically Slugging Percentage without singles) is .187, which is very, very high. The Angels ISO is an atrocious .128. The big difference to me between the two teams is how the Phillies work the count harder than the Angels: the Angels 3.63 pitches per plate appearance were the fewest in the A.L., while the Phillies 3.8 P/PA is the N.L. average (typically in years past the Phillies finished #1 or #2).

While the Phillies have a lot of power at the plate (103 home runs to the Angels 61 homers) they aren't entirely without speed: Jimmy Rollins is 14-for-14 in steals and Shane Victorino is 14 of 17. The Phillies are a nice blend of speed and power as compared to the Angels reliance on speed and clutch-hitting.

The strength of the Angels is their pitching staff. The Angels have a pretty formidable rotation, although their pitching staff has been pretty average. The Angels 3.99 ERA is partly the product of really good defense. The Angels tend to pitch to contact: their 2.9 walks per game rate is one of the lowest in the American League, but their 6.0 strikeouts per game is also below the A.L. average as well.

Tonight the Angels send Ervin Santana to the mound against Adam Eaton, which is a major mismatch. Santana has been very good this season: 8-3, 3.40 ERA. His fielding independent pitching (FIP) ERA is terrific: 3.35. Santana has a nearly 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.9-to-1). He's tough to homer off of too: 0.89 HR/9. Looks like the Mets traded for the wrong Santana.

Joe Saunders goes Saturday night for the Angels against Brett Myers. Saunders record is 10-3 with a 3.06 ERA, which obscures the fact that he's not pitching particularly well. The Angels have been converting 75.6% of the balls Saunders allows to be put into play into outs, a major reason why his FIP ERA is over a run higher (4.36) than his "real" ERA. Saunders K/BB ratio is just a pedestrian 2-to-1 and he gets 4.7 strikeouts per nine innings. He also allows many more home runs (1.12 HR/9) than his compatriots.

Finally, Jered Weaver, the Angels ace hurler, takes the mound Sunday to finish the series against Cole Hamels. Weaver, who went 13-7 with a 3.91 ERA last season, is just 6-7 with a 4.73 ERA this season. Weaver is a nice illustration of the fact that won-loss records and ERAs are bad tools to measure pitchers performances upon. Weaver's numbers are virtually identical this year when compared to last year:

2007 / 2008
FIP: 4.14 / 4.13
HR/9: 0.9 / 1.2
BB/9: 2.5 / 2.4
K/9: 6.4 / 6.5

And yet the casual observer would wonder why Weaver is struggling this season after being so good last year ...

The battle between Weaver and Hamels on Sunday is going to be worth the price of admission. Young, talented pitchers, the top aces for playoff-caliber teams ...

Defensively the Angels are good, but not great. They've allowed just 16 unearned runs. Their defensive outfield is surprisingly below-average: Torii Hunter ranks 11th of 12 A.L. Centerfielders in Relative Zone Rating (RZR). Garrett Anderson and Vlad Guerrero likewise rank near the bottom in RZR in leftfield and rightfield. I expected such talented players to have much better skills. The Angels infield collectively ranks third of fourteen teams in RZR.

This will be an interesting series. Is it a World Series preview? Maybe. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see these two teams playing in October. Cheesesteaks vs. Fish Tacos.

I like the Phillies to take two of three from the Angels.

How do you spell relief?

2008-06-19T05:41:00.001-05:00

Everyone's throats sore from booing J.D. Drew last night? I remember booing Drew back in '99 at the Vet when he hit that home run. Good times. Alas, last night's 7-4 loss to the Red Sox drops the Phillies a little back in the division race. This weekend: the Angels of Los Angeles or Anaheim or California home to town, followed by a trip to the West Coast to play the A's. I'll preview both series.

Right now I am working on a book about the Wiz Kids, that lovable collection of young Phillies players who captured the 1950 pennant then settled into baseball obscurity after the team’s chronic refusal to sign African-American ballplayers caused the team to remain an also-ran. I ran a big series on the Wiz Kids back in ’06 and I immediately thought about relief pitcher extraordinaire Jim Konstanty, who won the 1950 N.L. MVP award on the strength of his amazing relief performances for the team that season.

For those not familiar with the tale of the Wiz Kids, Konstanty went 16-7 with a 2.66 ERA (that’s an ERA+ of 152) and 22 saves that season. Konstanty’s 22 saves were 14 more than the Pirates Bill Werle. Konstanty also pitched in 74 of the Phillies 152 games (that’s 48% of them) and finished 62 (41%). In an era where the starting pitcher went the distance in two of every five starts (there were 498 complete games in 1236 games that season), Konstanty was the major reason why the Phillies went 30-16 in one-run games and bested the Dodgers for the pennant, the sole pennant (or division title) the team won between ’15 and ’76.

I was thinking about Konstanty when I sat down and looked over the stats from the Phillies bullpen this season. I haven’t been watching Baseball Tonight of late, but I hope that the Baseball Tonight team has commented on the Phillies astonishing bullpen strength this season. People looking for a reason why the Phillies went 13-4 down the stretch last season and best the Mets for the 2007 N.L. East title can look at the bullpen. People looking for a reason why the Phillies are 42-31 and sit three games ahead of the Marlins (and six and a half ahead of the Braves and Mets) in the N.L. East race can look at the bullpen once more. People looking for a reason why the Phillies will win the N.L. East again in 2008 can look at the bullpen.

How good is the Phillies bullpen? Well, they have an ERA of 2.58, the best in the National League (that’s an ERA+ of 147), to go with 20 saves in 26 opportunities (fourth in the N.L., with a 77% save percentage, which is best in the N.L.) and a sterling 17-9 record. The Phillies relief corps has the lowest OPS in the N.L. at .633.

Want to compare that to last season? Last year the Phillies ‘pen had an ERA of 4.41 (that’s an ERA+ of 92) and an OPS of .764. The Phillies leaky bullpen blew one in every three save opportunities.

So how are they doing it? Interestingly, the Phillies bullpen ranks below the N.L. averages in strikeouts per nine innings (7.28 K/9 vs. 7.44 K/9) and in strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.84 vs. 1.94). Initially I was tempted to dismiss the bullpen’s success on the Phillies offense: the Phillies propensity towards late-game comebacks is a big reason why the Phillies bullpen ranks second in the N.L. in run support at 4.61 (just 0.05 under than the Cubs), but that doesn’t explain why the Phillies aren’t allowing many walks or home runs. Is it good pitching? Or is it good defense?

As Bill James noted in his final Baseball Abstract in 1988, much of what we think of as good pitching is, in reality, good defense. To be sure, the performance the Phillies relief corps is putting in right now is partly thanks to good defense. But most of it is because the Phillies pitchers aren’t giving guys anything to hit. Interesting thing I observed, when looking at the Phillies stats, is how the Phillies relief guys seemed to go deeper into the counts than the starters do. (I’m cautious reading too much into this because that might just be the nature of the beast: you’ve got to be careful when you inherit runners on base. More on this later.)

Of the twelve guys who have taken the mound for the Phillies in 2008, the five starters rank second (Kyle Kendrick), third (Jamie Moyer), fourth (Brett Myers), fifth (Cole Hamels) and seventh (Adam Eaton) in fewest pitches per plate appearance. Rudy Seanez ranks sixth, Chad Durbin ranks eighth, J.C. Romero ranks ninth, Ryan Madson ranks tenth, Tom Gordon ranks eleventh, and Brad Lidge ranks twelfth in pitches per plate appearance. Here are the numbers and their rank amongst the ninety relief pitchers who have tossed 20+ innings:

P/PA:
Lidge: 4.00 (21st)
Gordon: 3.95 (28th)
Madson: 3.94 (30th)
Romero: 3.94 (31st)
Durbin: 3.81 (56th)
Seanez: 3.79 (61st)

Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined with respect to pitching stats:
Earned Run Average (ERA): Runs Allowed * 9 / Innings Pitched = What a pitcher would give up if they hurled a nine-inning game.
Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER): Balls Put Into Play that are converted into outs.
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): (((13 * HR) + (3 * BB) – (2 * K)) / IP) + League Factor. Basically a measure of how a pitcher would have done if he had an average defense behind him.
Home Runs per 9 Innings (HR/9): (HR * 9) / IP
Walks per 9 Innings (BB/9): (BB * 9) / IP
Strikeouts per 9 Innings (K/9): (K * 9) / IP

Looking at Romero, who threw a lot of pitches per batter when he joined the Phillies last season (4.2 P/PA), I was struck about Bill James efforts to classify pitchers by types and his assessment of the Nolan Ryan-type of pitcher: the guy who never gave you anything to hit and so had a lot of walks, a lot of strikeouts, never gave up home runs and threw a lot of pitches over the course of a start. The relief corps largely seems to follow this pattern: while the average N.L. bullpen gives up 0.91 home runs per nine innings, the Phillies gave up 11 in 209 innings – or 0.47 HR/9. While the average N.L. bullpen gives up 3.89 walks per nine innings, the Phillies gave up 92 walks in those 209 innings – or 3.96 BB/9. That careful nipping at the plate is the reason why the Phillies have had a lot of success coming from their ‘pen.

Lidge, who has converted all eighteen of his saves after blowing eight in twenty-seven tries last season, has been fantastic this season. In 29 innings of work Lidge has yet to surrender a home run and has fanned 37 hitters, or 11.48 K/9. His 0.93 ERA is absurdly low and compares well to his predecessor as the Astros and Phillies closer, Billy Wagner (2.17 ERA, five blown saves in twenty tries).

The biggest surprise, to me, has been Chad Durbin, the former Detroit Tiger who challenged Adam Eaton for the #5 slot in the rotation before moving to the bullpen and becoming the Phillies bullpen workhorse. Durbin has surrendered just one home run in the forty and two-thirds of an inning he has worked this season. He’s pitching nowhere near as well as his 1.55 ERA indicates (his Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP, ERA is 3.20, which is actually second-best on the team after Lidge at 1.75), but he’s pitching very well. Despite pitching in a ballpark that makes pitchers very vulnerable to home runs, Durbin has found success with a modest 1.11 groundball-to-flyball ratio (G/F), especially compared with the more groundball-oriented pitchers on the staff like Seanez (2.64 G/F), Romero (2.10 G/F), Lidge (1.38 G/F), and Madson (1.29 G/F).

I’m sure that there are pundits and bloggers out there who dismiss the Phillies success and believe that it can’t last, but I’m reminded of how unlikely Konstanty’s success was in 1950. He had pitched just 128 innings in the majors before joining the Phillies in 1947 and had meager success. When the sportswriters compiled their list of MVP candidates in the preseason, it is safe to assume he appeared on nobody’s list, and yet there he was helping the under-manned Phillies steal the pennant with timely pitching. Konstanty was the consensus pick as the MVP by the sportswriters.

Nobody respects the Phillies ‘pen, especially when compared with the Braves or Mets, but Chad Durbin, Ryan Madson and J.C. Romero are going to be the ones popping the champagne come October, not Billy Wagner.

The Amazin' Mess and Other Observations

2008-06-17T11:44:00.004-05:00

Shame on the Mets for their cowardly firing of coach Willie Randolph. Yes, the Mets are underachieving and yes, someone needs to be held accountable, but to fire Randolph in an email quietly at 3:00 AM? It is a cowardly move and speaks volumes about what a disorganized mess the Mets are.

Maybe Randolph isn't the best coach in baseball, and maybe he had lost control of the Mets, that highly paid, looks-so-good-on-paper juggernaut that collapsed at the end of the '07 season and struggled to a meager 34-35 start this season. But did he deserve to be fired after a win? While the team is stuck on the West Coast? By email?

Let me also take this opportunity to chortle, probably for the 1,531st time this season, over the Mets struggles. Click here for all of the comments from Mets fans calling me an idiot for not awarding the N.L East to the Mets at the start of the season. I'm amazed that they can spell.

-Nice to see the Phillies bats come alive in last night's 8-2 crushing of the Boston Red Sox. Don't get too confident, Phillies fans, about tonight's game. The Phillies won Game One of the 1915 World Series, then didn't win another playoff game until 1977.

Ghosts of '15: Red Sox vs. Phillies Preview

2008-06-16T10:23:00.000-05:00

Few may remember, but I want to note that the Phillies and Red Sox have met before, prior to inter-league play, as the Red Sox and Phillies take to the field for a three game set that might be a World Series preview. These two teams squared off once before in the World Series, waaaay back in 1915, when the Phillies were led by Grover Cleveland Alexander, and the Red Sox had a roster featuring Centerfielder Tris Speaker and an unknown pitcher / hitter named Babe Ruth.

The ’15 World Series was played in the deadball era prior to the Roaring ‘20s. Boston won the Series four games to one, but out-scored the Phillies 12-10. The series featured terrific pitching from Alexander, who won Game One for the Phillies, but the Phillies were out-matched. In Game Two, with President Woodrow Wilson watching (the first U.S. President to watch a World Series game), the Red Sox won 2-1, and went on to win the final three games of the Series as well. The Phillies defeat in Game Two marked the beginning of an eleven-game post-season losing streak for the Phillies, who would also lose four consecutive games in the ’50 World Series and three consecutive games in the ’76 NLCS to the Reds before beating the Dodgers in Game One of the ’77 NLCS 7-5.

Could the ’08 World Series feature the Red Sox and Phillies once more? The way both teams are playing, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least. After obliterating the St. Louis Cardinals 20-2 on Friday night the Phillies enter this series having dropped two straight to the surprising Cardinals, but still hold a three-game lead over the Florida Marlins in the N.L. East and are playing terrific baseball. The Red Sox, meanwhile, sit two and a half games ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays in the A.L. East. Two division leaders going head-to-head.

The Red Sox are a formidable team but are lacking their big gun, DH David Ortiz (a.k.a., Big Papi), as well as pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka and Curt Schilling. Despite the absence of so many important players, the Red Sox muscle on and currently have the second-best offense in the American League (371 runs scored, 5.15 runs per game, an American League-leading .356 OBP). Losing Big Papi's bat hurts (13 home runs, 43 RBI, .234 Isolated Power - ISO* - at the plate), but the Red Sox have a diverse offense. Jacob Ellsbury, the team's lead-off hitter, does a terrific job getting on base (.373 OBP), but has a lot of speed (33 of 36 steals attempted). Kevin Youkilis, the Greek God of Walks, plays great defense at first base and sets the table very well (.376 OBP). Right now Manny Ramirez is picking up the slack: 15 home runs, 49 RBI, .248 ISO. Mike Lowell (10 home runs, 36 RBI, .224 ISO) and J.D. Drew (11 home runs, 38 RBI, .256 ISO) are playing well too. It's a powerful, deep lineup.

*ISO: .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.

The Moneyball-era Red Sox aren't the Red Sox of old, stacked with bats and lacking in pitching and defense. The Red Sox play defense very well (.703 Defense Efficiency Ratio, or DER, Balls Put Into Play that are converted into outs) and they have a nasty pitching staff: 3.83 ERA (fourth-best in the A.L.). The injuries to Schilling and Matsuzaka however have stretched the Red Sox staff. This weekend they send to the mound Bartolo Colon (4-1, 3.41 ERA), rookie Justin Masterson (3-1, 2.90 ERA, 31 career innings pitched) and Jon Lester. Josh Beckett, the Red Sox best pitcher, isn't slated to take the mound in this series.

It is a testament to the Red Sox eye for talent that they've cobbled together a staff that is really pitching nicely. Colon, seemingly washed up at the start of the season, has pitched well in his starts with the Red Sox, allowing just 7 walks in 29 innings of work. Lester, slated to pitch Tuesday night against Jamie Moyer, is just a month removed from tossing a beautiful nine-inning, two walk no-hitter against the Royals that saw him strikeout nine. Once the game gets to the bullpen, Jonathan Papelbon (2.08 ERA, 19 saves) and Hideki Okajima (3.24 ERA) are a nearly unstoppable duo.

The Phillies, meanwhile, send Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick to the mound in this series. Hamels is one of the best pitchers in the N.L. (6-4, 3.27 ERA), hurling 86 strikeouts in 99 innings (7.82 K/9). It will be interesting to see how Hamels handles the Red Sox in his first start against them.

After Hamels, Moyer takes the mound against Lester tomorrow night, then Kyle Kendrick on Wednesday. Moyer and Kendrick might not strike observers as being pitchers who might have success against the Red Sox, but I like them in these games because both Kendrick and Moyer pitch to contact. The Red Sox love to work the count against pitchers, so guys like Moyer and Kendrick might have success coming in to them aggressively. Just a hunch, but Moyer and Kendrick might actually have more success against the Red Sox hitters than people think.

On the Phillies side, Chase Utley (22 home runs, 61 RBI, .401 OBP) and Pat Burrell (18 home runs, 47 RBI, .425 OBP) are tearing things up. Overall, the Phillies have the second-best offense in the N.L. (381 runs scored, 5.37 per game) and do a great job mashing the ball (.188 ISO). Like the Red Sox, the Phillies have a deep roster with lots of power. Ryan Howard, meanwhile, continues to be mired in his struggles and is a notable exception. So far in June Howard's OBP is .313 with just two home runs and 16 RBI in 14 games.

Keep your eye on Jimmy Rollins: he's had success in the past against the Red Sox (career .915 OPS against the Sox) and he's off to a nice start since returning from the D.L. So far J.Roll is 13/13 stealing bases.

More tomorrow ...

Odds 'N Ends report

2008-06-12T08:25:00.001-05:00

You might have noticed that I failed to produce a post yesterday. Sorry. Morning storm knocked out my power and kept me in bed until it was time to go to work. I had to sprint to get to work on time ...

I have a couple of topics I want to touch on briefly today. They are ...

1. Chase Utley: MVP? Well, right now Utley is the run-away leader in the National League voting for second base, so he'll definitely be starting at the 2008 All-Star Game for the National League. The triple crown is a long stop for him (his .311 batting average is thirteenth in the N.L.), but his 21 home runs lead the N.L. and his 56 RBI tie him for second in the N.L., just one behind Adrian Gonzalez. He's fourth in the N.L. in Runs Created per 27 Outs at 9.56, and his Isolated Power at the plate (BA - SLG = ISO, basically your slugging percentage without singles) is third in the N.L. at .339. Utley is also playing terrific defense: he's second in the N.L. amongst second basemen in Range Factor (((Put-Outs + Assists) * 9) / IP). If Chase sustains this level of production he could end up with 45-50 home runs, 40-45 doubles, 130-140 RBI, and 12-15 stolen bases.

2. Sports Illustrated's Bizarro-world cover from two weeks ago really didn't touch on everything that is so topsy-turvey about this baseball season. (Click here for the article by Tom Verducci.) Focused mainly on the Tampa Bay Rays sitting at the top of the standings while the Yankees mire in mediocrity, the article really didn't get into back I find shocking about this baseball season: the screwed up nature of the A.L. Central race, which finds the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers with losing records, fighting to stay ahead of the Kansas City Royals. The Royals. The Tigers are a total mess, having shipped Dontrelle Willis to Single-A Lakeland to rehab, while the rest of their lineup groans and creaks towards a fourth-place finish. I'm tempted to blame the struggles of the Tigers on their age, but youngsters Chris Granderson has an OBP of just .297, and Jason Verlander is 3-9 with a 4.65 ERA. Gary Sheffield has just three home runs and twelve RBI.

The Indians have issues too: Victor Martinez has zero home runs and Travis Hafner has barely played as well. The Indians pitching staff, which I actually felt was the best in the American League, has two of its three starters getting rocked: C.C. Sabathia picked an awful time to struggle (4-8, 4.34 ERA), when millions of dollars in free agency money are at stake, and Paul Byrd (3-6, 4.89 ERA) has been bad too. To me the Tigers and Indians struggles are much, much bigger surprises than the Yankees and Rays respective situations.

3. The Phillies recent two-game losing streak to the Marlins has clipped the Phillies lead in the N.L. East from 4 games to 2 games. The Braves and Mets sit six and a half games back. Oh yeah, the Mets. I harken back to all of the mocking attacks Mets fans launched on me back in spring about my belief that Johan Santana's acquisition changed nothing. (Click here for some abject stupidity.) I was skeptical about the Mets rotation but they've actually been o.k. John Maine has been good (okay, Mets fans were right about him), but Oliver Perez has stunk. On offense, Carlos Delgado has been terrible and the Mets supporting cast hasn't protected Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran or David Wright.

We'll have more on the Mets struggles later.

Farm Report: June of '08 (Part II, Clearwater & Lakewood)

2008-06-10T05:36:00.013-05:00

So we're back on The Farm Report. Currently there are four Phillies minor league teams playing baseball although two others are about to get started. The Gulf Coast League (GCL) Phillies kick off their 2008 season on June 18 with a game against the GCL Blue Jays, while the Williamsport Crosscutters play Mahoning Valley on June 17th. We'll get to see a good number of the 52 players the Phillies took in the 2008 Draft that day. The GCL team is really going to be interesting to watch.

The Phillies begin a three-game series tonight in Florida. Brett Myers vs. some guy I've never heard of. Let's turn to the minors.

As I mentioned yesterday, the minor league system consists of a number of steps that players have to pass through in order to make their way to the major leagues. The Double-A Reading Phillies and Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs are the final two stops players have to pass through in order to make the big leagues in Philadelphia. The two teams we are going to talk about today, the Advanced Single-A Clearwater Threshers and Single-A Lakewood Blue Claws, are the teams that currently hold players taken in the '06 and '07 Drafts. These players are a few years away from being MLB-ready. Guys like Adrian Cardenas won't have a shot at making the move to Philadelphia until '10. Let's start with ...

Clearwater Threshers. Current record: 26-33. Standings: 6th of 6 teams in in the Florida State League's Western Division, thirteen and one-half games back of the Ft. Meyers Miracles. Players of note: Adrian Cardenas (2B/SS), Quintin Berry (OF), Joe Savery (P) and Kyle Drabek (P).

The crown jewels of the Phillies 2006 and 2007 Drafts - first-rounders Kyle Drabek and Joe Savery, as well as Supplemental first-rounder Adrian Cardenas - are currently sunning themselves in Clearwater, Florida, waiting to move up to Reading and join the Reading Phillies. Kyle Drabek is still recovering from an arm injury and will hopefully rejoin the team shortly. Before his injury last season he was 5-1 with a 4.33 ERA in Lakewood. After a so-so start with the GCL Phillies in '06, Drabek really seemed to have put things together in Lakewood (7.66 K/9). I'd like to see what he'll do in Clearwater. The jury is still out on him.

Adrian Cardenas, who was picked after Drabek in the sandwich round in '06, is off to a terrific start. It is stunning that a player so talented fell to the Phillies in the sandwich round that season. At the moment Cardenas has an OPS of .909, which would rank him second in the entire FSL behind Daniel Valencia of the Ft. Myers Miracles (.938). Cardenas is also fifth in the FSL in OBP at .397. While Cardenas' has just four home runs and twelve RBIs, remember that the FSL is a very pitching-oriented league. Two things that impress me about him: in addition to the power at the plate, Cardenas is quick (4 for 4 in steals this season, 20 of 27 last season; five triples in '06 and '07 combined) and he shows good bat control (17 walks to 21 K's this season). Add in Cardenas defensive abilities ... Cardenas' skills are limitless. He's easily the best position player the Phillies have in the minors and probably their second-best prospect after Carlos Carrasco.

Phillies fans are finally getting their first extended look at Joe Savery. The Phillies first pick in '07, he played sparringly in Williamsport last season, posting a 2-3 record with an impressive 2.73 ERA. The Phillies high command liked what they saw enough to jump Savery over Single-A Lakewood to Clearwater. So far he's off to a solid start, not that you could tell with his 2-7 record and 4.61 ERA, but his numbers are far more impressive. His strikeout rate is 7.54 per nine innings and he owns a 2-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Unlike Carrasco and Outman, two players the Phillies have elected to move along slowly, Savery appears to be MLB ready sooner rather than later. I could see the Phillies jumping Savery to Reading before the end of this season and giving him a chance at making the Phillies roster in '10.

Finally, Quintin Berry is really catching my eye in Clearwater. Currently he is second in the FSL in stolen bases at 19 (in 24 tries). If he could improve his ability to get on base (he currently has a .335 OBP), he'd be deadly. Let's move to the Jersey Shore and scope out the ...

Lakewood Blue Claws. Current record: 33-26. Standings: 3rd of 8 teams in in the South Atlantic League's Northern Division, two games behind of the Lake County Captains. Players of note: Dominic Brown (OF), D'Arby Myers (OF), Freddy Galvis (SS), Karl Bolt (1B), Travis Mattair (3B), and Drew Naylor (P).

Here is something that I just realized. The Blue Claws are the only Phillies affiliate right now with the winning record and not in last place. That's pretty sad.

Now, this is just a personal opinion, but I think the Phillies 2007 Draft was pretty good and yielded a lot of talent. While the '06 Draft yielded a clear superstar in Cardenas (the jury is still out on Drabek), I think the '07 Draft will yield a greater dividend of talent in terms of depth as opposed to quality. I can't see Naylor, Savery or Mattair making the kind of contribution that Cardenas will, but each will contribute to the Phillies roster as role players or fourth and fifth starters. In the end that depth will be as important as Cardenas will be. (Can you tell I think this guy is pretty good?)

Let's start with Dominic Brown. Brown is a player who really impresses me. Last season in Williamsport he stole 14 bases in 21 tries and posted an impressive .356 OBP while hitting 5 triples. This season he's surprised me by hitting five home runs (curiously, no triples, but 12 doubles) with an OBP of .362 and 11 steals in 12 tries. Brown is fast and shows good instinicts. I like the fact that in his last ten games he's walked 7 times and struckout just once. Discipline at the plate and speed. Brown could make a very effective leadoff hitter one day.

Airforce grad Karl Bolt and Travis Mattair man each end of the Phillies corner infield. Bolt, a first baseman, got off to an impressive start in the GCL with 8 home runs, 4 triples and 10 doubles and 31 RBI in just 57 games, an impressive feat given how pitcher-friendly the league is. He's off to a less-powerful start in Lakewood, with three home runs and seven doubles. So far Bolt is striking out way too much: 31 times in 37 games. Add in that he draws just 7 walks and you've got a recipe for disaster. Mattair, who played with Bolt in the GCL last season, is also struggling in Lakewood. His On-Base Percentage is an abysmal .322 and he has just one home run and 21 RBI in 52 games. Like Bolt, Mattair has wiffed a lot: 51 times in 52 games.

D'Arby Myers, who played in Williamsport in '07 and in the GCL in '06, is really struggling right now. His batting average is a beyond awful .189 and he's struckout 45 times in 50 games. Myers has speed to burn: 7 of 8 steals this season, 11 of 17 last season, but he's going to get few chances to showcase it unless he improves the OBP of .243 he has this season and the .286 he had last.

So who is the best position player in Lakewood? Say hello to Mr. Freddy Galvis. Ignore Galvis' .288 OBP in Lakewood and his .255 OBP in Williamsport. Galvis is a defensive superstar and has a lot of speed to burn: 9 steals in 10 tries in '08, 9 steals in 13 tries in '07. Galvis's defensive abilities are so impressive that when the team talked about what to do when Jimmy Rollins went down, Galvis' name was floated around by some members of the organization. A player this talented and this raw is still figuring things out at the plate. He'll improve and become a steady MLBer.

Finally we come to Drew Naylor. The Brisbane, Australia, native was the Phillies best hurler in Williamsport: 8-6, 3.28 ERA, 9.35 K/9, 2.70 BB/9, 3.46 K/BB ratio, 1.14 WHIP. Those are exceptional numbers and it will be interesting to see if Naylor can sustain those numbers in the long haul. So far this season he's burning up the South Atlantic League: 5-2, 2.61 ERA, 9.91 K/9, 2.18 BB/9, 4.55 K/BB ratio, 0.97 WHIP. Wow. If Naylor can keep that up, he's going to become a dominant MLB pitcher.

So in the end, I think that the current group of players at Lakewood will produce several talents who could play important supporting roles on the Phillies. Brown and Naylor are near-locks to make it to the majors, while Galvis ought to, and between Mattair, Bolt and Myers, one of the three ought to make it to the majors. That should be four major leaguers right there. While these guys might not contribute as dramatically as I expect Cardenas to do (I expect Cardenas to be a consistent, 25-30 home run, 100 RBI, 40-50 double type of player), they will perform important roles with the Phillies in the future.

So that's the Farm Report as I see it this first week of June, 2008. Enjoy your day. Tomorrow, I think I'll talk a little about Shane Victorino.

Farm Report: June of '08 (Part I, Lehigh Valley & Reading)

2008-06-09T05:35:00.011-05:00

Let's begin with a quick recap of this weekend's Braves - Phillies series. Friday night's game, which saw the Phillies snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, might just be the moment that Phillies fans look back upon and say that was the decisive game of the season. Kelly Johnson's error in the top end of the ninth allowed the Phillies to tie the game at 2-2, then Shane Victorino hit the decisive home run and threw out a Braves base-runner trying to tie the game up. The 4-3 win was the most exciting game of the season for the Phillies.

So as the smoke clears from the weekend, the Phillies find themselves sitting in first place, 3 & 1/2 games ahead of the Marlins at 39-26, their best record at this time of the year since '95 and probably their finest start since the '93 team went 40-25 to start the season. The Phillies also hold the second-best record in the N.L. after the Cubs and sit 6 & 1/2 games ahead of the Braves and 7 & 1/2 games ahead of the Mets.

Hey Mets fans, reind me again: wasn't some guy supposed to gaurantee you a division title? I forget.

The Farm Report Returns ... Inspired by the 2008 MLB Draft on Thursday and Friday, I decided that I'd revisit the Phillies minor leagues today and tomorrow with quick looks at how the Phillies minor league teams are doing and how some of our favorite players ("Phuture Phillies"?) are faring.

First, a word on how the minors work. Looking for the players the Phillies just drafted in Lakewood and Clearwater and Reading this summer? Don't. Draftees into the Phillies system will be sent to either Clearwater to play with the Gulf Coast League (GCL) Phillies or to Williamsport to play with the Short-Season Single-A Crosscutters in the New York - Penn League (NYPL). Typically high schoolers go to the GCL while college grads go to the NYPL. So expect to see Anthony Hewitt, Zach Collier, Anthony Grose and Jason Knapp in Clearwater while guys like Vance Worley head off to Williamsport. The minors are structured as follows:

Rookie League (e.g. GCL Phillies) - typical entry point for High School draftees.
Short-Season Single-A (e.g. the NYPL's Crosscutters) - typical entry point for College draftees.
Single-A (for the Phillies, the South Atlantic League's Lakewood Blue Claws) - usually the first full season in the minors for the players who survive the GCL or NYPL.
Advanced Single-A (for the Phillies, the Florida State League's Clearwater Threshers) - usually the second full season in the minors for the Phillies prospects.
Double-A (for the Phillies, the Eastern League's Reading Phillies) - usually the third full season in the minors for the Phillies prospects, although some players can advance here from Single-A or some are held back for development.
Triple-A (for the Phillies, the International League's Lehigh Valley IronPigs) - usually the fourth and final full year in the minors for the Phillies prospects, although oftentimes players spend extra time here developing or they advance here quickly.

Players like Hewitt and Collier and Grose and Knapp will probably start around July 1 with the GCL Phillies and play sixty or so games until the start of September. Some in need of further development might play winter ball somewhere. In 2009 Hewitt, et al., will graduate to the Jersey Shore and play with the Blue Claws in Lakewood. Given that these guys are all high schoolers, the Phillies will bring them along slowly, sending them to Clearwater in '10, followed by Reading in '11 or '12 and Lehigh Valley in '12 or '13. That's why people like ESPN's Keith Law forecast a looong development investment for guys like Hewitt. Opening Day, 2014, might be the first time we see Anthony Hewitt or any of the others wear the Red Pinstripes.

More advanced college players like Pedro Alvarez, the Vanderbilt third baseman who the Pittsburgh Pirates took with the #2 pick of the draft, in contrast will have a quicker path through the system: likely beginning at the State College Spikes in the NYPL, followed by the Single-A Hickory Crawdads in '09, skipping to the Double-A Altoona Curve in '10, then finishing in Triple-A Indianapolis in '11 and starting at third base for the Pirates in late '11 or early '12. That's the difference between the approaches teams that need MLB-ready talent now like the Pirates and the Phillies, who can afford to take time developing talent.

So let's start with the Phillies MLB-ready talent factory in Allentown with the Lehigh Valley IronPigs.

Lehigh Valley IronPigs. Current record: 21-41. Standings: 6th of 6 teams in in the International League's Northern Division, seventeen games back of the Scranton / Wilkes-Barre Yankees. Players of note: Jason Jamarillo (C), T.J. Bohn (OF), Travis Blackley (P), and J.A. Happ (P).

The IronPigs, the Phillies brand-spanking new Triple-A affiliate in the Lehigh Valley area, got off to a less than auspicious 6-30 start this season and have clawed their way back to ... well, not respectability. Let's try "mediocrity" ... with a 15-11 record since mid-May. The IronPigs are awful and it is pretty clear that there is little MLB-ready talent currently in Allentown. Jason Jamarillo, the IronPigs catcher, is making little argument for the job of Chris Coste, with his meager .667 OPS and three home runs and seventeen RBI this season. Jamarillo is the most highly touted catching prospect in the Phillies system, but he's really struggling at the plate while Coste, a player who scouts routinely passed on and paid little attention to, continues to play well in Philly. As long as Jamarillo struggles through this season, Coste and Carlos Ruiz are set in Philadelphia. T.J. Bohn played briefly with the Phillies at the end of May but recently rejoined the team. His .522 OPS is a testament to how little talent is actually located on the IronPigs roster.

Pitcher Travis Blackley, whom the Phillies took in the Rule 5 Draft last season from the San Francisco Giants farm system, didn't make the Phillies roster but found his way to Triple-A to develop. Blackley is 1-3 with a 5.65 ERA and has struckout 30 hitters (7.36 K/9) and walked 22 (5.4 BB/9) in thirty-six and two-thirds of an inning. Blackley has talent but needs to figure out how to control his stuff. If you can't keep hitters from walking in the International League, you won't be able to do that in the National League.

Far and away the Phillies best player on the IronPigs roster is J.A. Happ. Happ's pedestrian 3-5 record masks an impressive 3.86 ERA (impressively low and doubley impressive given how little help Happ gets) and some nice stats. Happ has 81 strikeouts in 77 innings of work (9.47 K/9) and he allowed 30 walks (2.70 K/BB ratio). If anyone from the Phillies rotation goes down or if Adam Eaton needs to be pulled in August and September, Happ is the guy to take his spot.

Reading Phillies. Current record: 22-34. Standings: 6th of 6 teams in in the Eastern League's Southern Division, eleven games back of Harrisburg. Players of note: Jason Donald (SS), Greg Golson (OF), Jeremy Slayden (OF), Andrew Carpenter (P), Carlos Carrasco (P), and Josh Outman (P).

There is a lot of talent on the Reading Phillies roster and I think that the '09 Lehigh Valley IronPigs are going to be a pretty decent team. I'm pretty bullish on the arms that the Phillies have coming up through their system and Reading is where the talent is at. Carpenter is just 2-7 with a 6.94 ERA but he is pitching better than that. It is also worth remembering that Carpenter pitched very well in Clearwater in '07: 17-6, 3.20 ERA, 6.40 K/9, 2.93 BB/9.

After Carpenter, the Phillies have two other terrific talents: Carrasco and Outman. Let's start with Carrasco, who has been rated as the best prospect in the Phillies system. Currently Carrasco has been blowing away the opposition in Reading. His 4-4 record and 3.91 ERA masks some scary numbers: 72 strikeouts in 73 & 2/3 innings, or 8.80 K/9. He also possesses a 2.57 K/BB ratio. Carrasco has an exceptional arm and is clearly destined to take the place of Jamie Moyer or Adam Eaton in Philadelphia in 2009. He might actually be major-league ready right now.

Outman is a curious case of someone who posts numbers equally good, if not better than Carrasco, and yet doesn't earn the same respect. Outman's issue right now is control: he has a 2-6 record and a 3.61 ERA but he's getting a lot of strikeouts and a lot of walks. How many players strikeout over ten batters per nine innings of work? Outman does: 10.3 K/9 (53 Ks in 46 & 1/3 innings). How many can find success despite allowing over five walks an inning? Outman does: 5.05 BB/9 (26 walks). Once Outman gains control he'll return to being the pitcher who matched Carrasco stride-for-stride in '06 and '07. I predict seeing Outman in Philadelphia in '10.

The Reading Phillies position players are an interesting bunch. First there is Greg Golson, the talented former high schooler from Texas that the Phillies are trying to make into a major leaguer and might yet succeed, but for Golson's inability to avoid striking out again and again and again. Golson is a strikeout artist and has K'd a whopping 73 times so far this year. Sadly, the strikeouts detract from the fact that Golson is fast (16 steals in 19 tries) and has power (13 doubles and 7 home runs in just 57 games).

Then these is Jeremy Slayden, the slow-footed slugging rightfielder from Georgia Tech who tore up the Florida State League last season. This season Slayden has struggled a little with good competition, but he's generally played well. His 5 home runs and 40 RBI aren't that impressive, but when coupled with his .355 OBP, they make a strong argument for Slayden to advance to the IronPigs in '09.

Finally, Jason Donald. The talented shortstop from the University of Arizona is the big surprise of the Phillies system. More of a defensively oriented player, Donald has an impressive .399 OBP and has displayed a lot of speed (7 for 9 in steals, 3 triples) and power (4 home runs, 10 doubles, and a .444 slugging percentage). He's a terrific player and could be backing up Jimmy Rollins next year.

Tomorrow: Clearwater and Lakewood. Today is an off-day for the Phillies.

2008 Draft Recap: Day One

2008-06-06T07:10:00.009-05:00

The 2008 MLB Draft began yesterday afternoon with the Tampa Bay Rays taking shortstop Tim Beckham with the #1 Overall Pick, perhaps the last time the Rays will be in that position for a long time. The Phillies were busy with nine picks in the first six rounds. Here are a few thoughts:

In a draft that was deep on corner infielders and catcher prospects, as well as college players, the Phillies weren't afraid to be different. Their first four picks and six of their first seven, were high school players. The Phillies first three picks were high school players projected as outfielders. The Phillies chose:

Round:
1. Anthony Hewitt (SS/OF) - Salisbury, High School
1A. Zach Collier (OF) - Chino Hills High School
2. Anthony Grose (OF) - Bellflower High School
2. Jason Knapp (RHP) - North Hunterdon High School
3. Vance Worley (RHP) - Long Beach State College
3A. Jonathan Pettibone (RHP) - Esperanza High School
4. Trevor May (RHP) - Kelso High School
5. Jeremy Hamilton (1B) - Wright State
6. Colby Shreve (RHP) - Southern Nevada Community College

Obviously your attention is drawn to Hewitt and Collier, a pair of talented outfielders with a lot of raw tools who are anywhere from 4-6 years of development away from the major leagues. I wouldn't expect to see them crack the Phillies lineup until 2013 or so at the earliest. But both players are interesting picks in that they break with the Phillies recent focus on pitching and they also buck the trend in baseball towards drafting MLB-ready college kids who could crack lineups by 2010. The Phillies took two guys with a lot of raw talent who could anchor the Phillies outfield in the future. Hewitt looks like a future compliment to Ryan Howard and Chase Utley in the lineup as a #5 hitter, while Collier looks like a future #2 hitter who has been compared with the Angels Garrett Anderson.

It is interesting to me that the Phillies were able to snare the two guys they really wanted, Hewitt and Collier, after it looked like the team might have to choose between them. Keith Law of ESPN thought that Collier was going to slide to the Minnesota Twins at #27, but then Collier slid out of the first round and fell to them in the supplemental first round. The focus, especially from small market teams, on college-ish MLB-ready talent really might pay dividends as the Phillies secured a pair of first-round guys who probably would have gone much higher in the draft in previous years.

According to Baseball America, second-round pick Jason Knapp had an outstanding outwork with the team and the Phillies considered taking him in the Supplemental First Round at #34, but he fell to them in the second round at #71. What impresses me about Knapp is his size: six-foot-five, 215 lbs, which hopefully means that his fastball will come screaming down on hitters like Randy Johnson. Knapp and fellow-second rounder Anthony Grose are raw talents like Collier and Hewitt, which means that the Phillies are going to have a lot of work ahead of them in terms of talent development, but nearly all of these players are guys rated by the talent experts as having big upsides. Grose looks like a lead-off guy with a lot of speed and terrific defensive abilities. Some have compared him to the Dodgers Juan Pierre.

Starting with Knapp, the Phillies took four pitchers with their next five picks. The one who really interests me is May, a Washington State High Schooler who apparently has a fastball clocked in the high-90s and a devastating knuckle-curveball. Can the Phillies keep him from attending Washington State University?

-Generally I thought this was a very good draft for the Phillies. If their first four picks turn out well, the farm system could be dramatically restocked. This is a risky draft which could lay the foundations for great things in 2013-2014, or it could be a disaster and a wasted opportunity. We'll see.

Look for the Phillies to stock up on some mid-level pitchers today and a few project-type players. I think you'll see the Phillies take some catchers and middle infielders in the mid-level rounds today ....

-I thought ESPN's coverage of the Draft was pretty good but there was too much filler at the end and the failure to cover beyond the first round and supplemental first round left an incomplete picture to the viewer. In the future I'd like to see ESPN try and expand their coverage, perhaps starting the first round earlier in the day than two o'clock and following into the second and third rounds.

ESPN's panel was good - any panel featuring Peter Gammons is going to be good - but I would have liked to have seen more of Baseball America's Jim Callis or ESPN's Keith Law. Chris Singleton did a nice job as the token player giving the draftee's perspective on the system amidst the pundits, but he seemed like he had big stretches of time where he had nothing to say. One of the reasons why the NFL Draft does so well is because Mel Kiper, Jr., is there on Draft Day to deliver the definitive word on who this guy from Central Appalachian State is. I would like to see Law, a knowledgeable and articulate presence, on the panel as the expert on all things talent.

-Ed Wade and the Astros earned scorn for taking catcher Jason Castro with the #10 pick. I hope Wade knows what he's doing.

-The Pirates decision to take Pedro Alvarez is a real watershed moment for the Pirates. Either the team has helped itself by laying the foundation for future success - Alvarez has been compared to Manny Ramirez and is the powerful RBI-machine that the Pirates badly need in the middle of their lineup - or they have just doomed themselves to disaster. A year removed from a draft that earned them scorn for ducking on taking a Scott Boras client because of signability issues, they stepped up to the plate and took Alvarez, a major talent who also has Boras negotiating on his behalf. Also given that Pirates GM Neal Huntington is Boras former nemesis ... well, this is a big moment for the Pirates. They need to sign Alvarez and they have little leverage in these negotiations. They are a small-market team that needs to develop talent quickly. This will be interesting ...

Oh yeah, the Phillies played some baseball yesterday, wrapping up a four-game series with the Reds with their third win, a 5-0 shutout by Cole Hamels. The big moment in the game was Manager Charlie Manuel's decision to bench 2007 N.L. MVP Jimmy Rollins for failing to run out a pop fly that turned into a single after a silly little-league-type error by the Reds. It was a gutsy decision which could have blown up on everyone had Rollins reacted badly. Instead, the message was received by Rollins and he took it with a lot of dignity. Manuel's hold on the clubhouse was secure and Rollins displayed a lot of humility and maturity in accepting responsibility and putting team harmony first. This is the kind of moment that separates championship teams from also-rans.

The Phillies went 8-2 on their homestand and sit two and a half games in first heading into a road trip with the Atlanta Braves. More later on today ...

Draft Update (Con't)

2008-06-05T16:25:00.003-05:00

The Draft rolls on ... Discussion has swirled around Anthony Hewitt and Zach Collier as being the Phillies targets for the Draft with the 24th pick. As fate would have it, after the Phillies took Hewitt at #24, Collier fell to the Phillies in the Supplemental First Round at #34 anyway. So with the first round nearly complete it looks like the Phillies have gotten both of their guys. Hewitt and Collier are both rated as raw projects by ESPN's Draft Day crew (Keith Law noted that Hewitt in particular struggled when forced to play with wooden bats and against more formitable competition and forecast 4-5 years of development ahead of him), with significant upsides. The video ESPN showed of Hewitt put the name "Bo Jackson" in my head and I was impressed with Zach Collier's throwing arm. The next Johnny Callison? Shane Victorino?

Both Hewitt and Collier are likely to play in the Phillies outfield circa 2013 or so if they make it. I'm impressed that the Phillies were able to snare two such talents in the first round. Look for the Phillies next pick in the second round to be a college pitcher given that they just took two high school position players. Don't be surprised if the Phillies take a college pitcher in round three either.

Speaking of trends: two-thirds of the first thirty picks were position players rather than pitchers, and two-thirds were college players ... 21 of 30 if you count Community College as being closer to College than High School. Stay tuned ...

Draft Update

2008-06-05T15:07:00.003-05:00

Andrew Cashner is off the board, falling to the Chicago Cubs at #19. The Detroit Tigers are on the clock at #21. Zach Collier and Anthony Hewitt are still on the board. I still say Hewitt.

Pedro Alvarez went #2 to the Pirates, which will set up an interesting situation: the small market Pirates and their anti-Boras General Manager negotiating with the devil in the dark suit.

Countdown to the Draft

2008-06-05T10:08:00.004-05:00

The Draft is just over two hours away. I'm 90% convinced that the Phillies will take High School shortstop Anthony Hewitt at #24. He's an exceptional talent and benefit from grooming within the Phillies system. Adrian Cardenas, another talented high schooler in need of grooming, is doing quite well at Clearwater with the Advanced Single-A Threshers. Imagine a future Phillies infield filled with Hewitt, Cardenas, Utley and Ryan Howard ...

Baseball Prospectus projects that the Phillies will pass on Hewitt and take Zach Collier, an outfielder from Chino Hills High School in California. Others say the Phillies will go with Andrew Cashner, a six foot six relief ace from Texas Christian who almost certainly would have a shorter path to the major leagues than Hewitt or Collier. I'm banking on the Phillies being more interested in developing a player in the long-term. That's why I am going with Hewitt, whom is the person Baseball America says is going at #24.

I really liked this article from SI's Tom Verducci about why the MLB Draft is so important now that we live in the post-steroids era.

Meanwhile ... Don't be fooled by Brett Myers performance last evening. Yes, he surrendered just one hit and one run in seven and one-third of an inning. Yes, he struck eight Reds out. He also surrendered six walks. Volquez, in contrast, tossed a third of an inning less than Myers and got the same number of strikeouts. He allowed just two hits and walked just two Phillies. Even when Myers held onto the no-hitter it struck me that Volquez was still out-pitching him.

Losing John Smoltz has to be a bitter blow to the Atlanta Braves, weakening their rotation and costing them a key veteran in their search to return to the playoffs for the first time since '05. I think Smoltz will return in '09, but it will be his final season. This loss will really hurt though. I'm not sure that the Braves will survive and catch up to the Mets and Phillies.

Speaking of the Braves, anyone notice the extreme home/road split that the Braves have? The Braves are 24-8 at home and 7-21 on the road. Compare the winning percentages:

N.L. East: (Home Pct / Road Pct / Diff.)
Atlanta: .750 / .250 / +.500
New York: .607 / .433 / +.174
Phillies: .606 / .536 / +.070
Marlins: .600 / .500 / +.100
Nats: .448 / .366 / +.082

The only team that comes as close to matching the Braves variance is the Reds, whose .655 home winning percentage is .333 higher than their .322 road winning percentage (although last night's game helped matters). If the Braves were homebodies, they'd be unbeatable.

I'll comment on the Draft later.

2008 MLB Draft Focus

2008-06-03T05:42:00.050-05:00

This week is Draft Week in baseball as the thirty major league baseball teams attempt to build for their future by drafting high school and college talent into their rosters. We'll spend some time this week talking about the Phillies recent drafts and the players they will take this Thursday.

This will be the second year in a row in which you can watch the draft on ESPN, which I intend to do Thursday evening off my DVR. (News I haven't broken to my wife yet ...) The MLB Draft has never held the attention of the public quite the way that the NFL Draft has for a number of reasons, some of which the MLB is trying to change. For one thing, the draft never used to actually be in a central location but was done over the intercom. No Commissioner striding to the podium to announce the next pick under the glare of the TV cameras as Bud Selig will do Thursday afternoon, and as the NFL as done for years in New York City.

The problem with the MLB's efforts to make the Draft an Event with a capital E is that, unlike the NFL, NBA and (to a lesser extent) NHL drafts, the MLB Draft will have absolutely no immediate impact on the teams that make their selections today. The '98 Minnesota Vikings took a gamble on Marshall wide receiver Randy Moss with the 19th pick of the first round of the Draft that season and landed an impact player who helped spark the Vikings to 556 points and a 15-1 record (after going just 9-7 the previous season) thanks to his 1,313 yards and 17 touchdowns. No player taken today is going to have that kind of impact in 2008 or even 2009. David Price was taken #1 overall last season from Vanderbilt and he has played no role whatsoever in the Tampa Bay Rays success in '08.

The players being taken today are going to be the cornerstones to their franchises in 2010 or 2011 at the earliest. Most of these players are going to make their MLB debuts in 2012, however. The lack of impact that these players will have on their teams makes the MLB Draft a spectacle for the hard-core baseball fan. The NFL Draft promises: "See tomorrow's players today!" The MLB Draft promises: "See the distant future's players today!"

Additionally, thanks to college football and basketball being televised to prominently by ESPN, CBS, ABC and the like, many fans are familiar already with the players they see on Draft Day. College baseball is barely on the radar of most baseball fans. High School baseball? Forget about it ...

So while I am skeptical that the MLB Draft will ever be an Event with a capital E, I applaud baseball for shaking up the status quo and attempting to make it interesting for the public. While baseball has traditionally been a sport given to tradition above all else, I enjoy seeing the powers that be attempt to grow the game and give something to get the fans fired up. This is the kind of forward thinking we typically don't see from Major League Baseball.

History. So where does the draft come from? The major league draft, which was adopted by baseball following the winter meetings in December of 1964, grew out of a concern that New York Yankees were dominating the game. The persistent dominance of the Yankees between 1921 and 1964 (in 44 years they won 29 American League Pennants and 20 World Series), in which the Yankees would attract and sign marquee talent like Joe DiMaggio and Mickey Mantle led Major League Baseball to institute the draft. Scouts like Tom Greenwade used to specialize in locating talent and signing them to the Bronx Bombers before other teams were aware these players existed. Suddenly the legions of scouts that the Yankees had criss-crossing the country looking for talent now longer had the ability to corner a player and lock him into a deal. Aging already, the Yankees went into an eclipse in the mid-to-late 1960's.

Theory. Typically teams took players in the MLB draft somewhat equally from college and high school and simply selected the players their scouts rated as the best. Scouts typically would give high ratings to high school players because they were more raw in terms of their talent and were the subject of more speculation. Speculation that oftentimes would prove erroneous. The proliferation over the last decade of sabremetric analysis in the game as well as the internet as turned the draft philosophies on its head. Bill James wrote in his 1988 Baseball Abstract: "Of all the studies I have done over the last twelve years, what have I learned? ... [After listing four things, James lists as the fifth:] Players taken in the June draft coming out of college (or with at least two years of college) perform dramatically better than players drafted out of high school." The ten points listed by James, of which the foregoing was number five, became known as A Bill James Primer.

The split between the sabremetric pundits and the baseball establishment over high schoolers vs. college players continued into the 1990's and 2000's. In the book Moneyball, author Michael Lewis spends a lot of time dissecting the Oakland A's draft in 2002 for many reasons. The '02 Draft showcases the A's approach to the game in a nutshell: their focus on stats over scouting, their focus on proven college talent over speculative high school talent, their obsession with keeping their costs reasonable. The experience and failure of Billy Beane the ballplayer, the talented high schooler from San Diego taken in the first round of the 1980 Draft, is what drives Billy Beane the A's General Manager.

Beane was a bust as a player because he was an unproven talent who could, in the eyes of scouts, be molded into a big leaguer. The scouts who saw Billy Beane play saw Billy Beane as the next Mickey Mantle. Billy Beane the General Manager has no interest or confidence in the capacity of minor league instructors to mold players or try and make them something they are not. Billy Beane wants proven talent, which is why the '02 A's took college players exclusively and took players that other teams took a pass on. Perhaps things didn't work out with Jeremy Brown, the much maligned catcher the A's took from the University of Alabama in the first round, in the minor leagues, but the A's success from 1999 to now otherwise underscores why the A's are such a successful franchise despite owning one of the smallest payrolls in the game. Author Michael Lewis wrote about the A's preparation for the 2002 Draft:

Billy [Beane] had his own idea about where to find future major league baseball players: inside [the computer of] Paul [DePodesta, then-Assistant General Manager] ... He'd flirted with the idea of firing all of the scouts and just drafting kids straight from Paul's laptop. The Internet now served up just about every statistic you could want about every college player in the country ... From Paul's point of view, that was the great thing about college players: they had meaningful stats. They played a lot more games, against stiffer competition, than high school players. The sample size of their relevant statistics was larger, and therefore a more accurate reflection of some underlying reality. You could project college players with greater certainty than you could project high school players. The statistics enabled you to find your way past all sorts of sight-based scouting prejudices ...

Moneyball, pages 37-38.

So what is the actual evidence for college superiority? According to Baseball Between the Numbers (see, Table 7-1.1 on page 237), College players are much, much more likely to make it to the majors than high schoolers. The percentage of high-school players drafted between 1984-1991 who made the majors was just 41%. In that same time period, 60% of college players drafted made the majors. Amongst high schoolers drafted between 1992-1999, 39% made the majors. About 57% of college players during that same time period made the big leagues. So College players are roughly 50% more likely to make the majors than a high schooler, which validates the A's belief in drafting college players. The A's need to develop talent from their farm system and cannot afford to have their draft picks come up short.

According to Baseball Between the Numbers (I am referencing Chapter 7.1, "What Happened to Todd Van Poppel?" by Dayn Perry, in this post, by the way), "High school pitchers remain the riskiest selections in the first round [of the Draft]. This is mostly because, unlike college hurlers, they haven't made it through the 'injury nexus'." That is partly why high schoolers are such a risky bet for big league teams to take.

Now, at this point, I ought to note that not every team follows the A's focus. The Anaheim Angels, for example, focus aggressively on taking high school talent and developing it. With their deep pockets and focus on small ball, the Angels are almost like baseball's Anti-A's. And the Angels have been successful in developing talent on their farm system, so there is a powerful counter-argument to be made that high schoolers are a good bet too: you get to shape and mold their development and you get to bring them aboard before they get into college and possibly suffer injuries. For teams with large payrolls, high schoolers are a good bet.

So that's basically where the draft comes from and what some of the theories about it are.

The Phillies position on Draft Day. The Phillies own the 24th, 34th, 51st, 71st, 102nd and 109th picks in the draft, or 6 of the top 109 picks. Why so many? The Phillies were given supplemental first and third round picks (#34 and #109 respectively) for losing Aaron Rowand to free-agency and failing to sign Brandon Workman, the Phillies third-round pick in the '07 draft. The supplemental picks, particularly the first-rounder, will pay huge dividends to the Phillies in the long run and will confirm the team's wisdom of not sacrificing draft picks to re-sign pricey free agents. As James wrote in the '88 Baseball Abstract: "The chance of getting a good player with a high draft pick is substantial enough that is clearly a disastrous strategy to give up a first-round draft pick to sign a player like Rick Dempsey, Pete Falcone, or Bill Stein." (This is #6 in the 10 points to the Bill James Primer.)

The Phillies ought to be able to leverage their large number of draft picks into a few talented players. Who will they pick?

Phillies Draft History. The Phillies have shown a real focus on pitchers recently. Four of their last five first-round draft choices have been pitchers.

First Round Picks
2007: Joe Savery, LHP
2006: Kyle Drabek, RHP
2005: No Pick (Took 3B Mike Costanzo in 2nd Round)
2004: Greg Golson, OF
2003: No Pick (Took 2B Tim Moss in 3rd Round)
2002: Cole Hamels, LHP
2001: Gavin Floyd, RHP
2000: Chase Utley, 2B
1999: Brett Myers, RHP
1998: Pat Burrell, 1B
1997: J.D. Drew, OF
1996: Adam Eaton, RHP

Take notice of the success the Phillies have generally had too: every one of those 1st rounders taken between '96 and '02 have made the majors and, aside from J.D. Drew, is or has been on the Phillies roster.

Winding their way right now through the Phillies system is a slew of great pitching talent: John Outman, Carlos Carrasco, Savery, Drabek, Drew Carpenter. The future is bright for the Phillies pitching staff as Outman and Carrasco (and possibly Savery) might be in the rotation in 2009 to supplement Hamels and Myers, two other former first-round picks.

The Phillies most recent draft does suggest, however, that the team might be moving back towards an emphasis on position players. The Phillies took position players with five of the six picks they had following their selection of Savery with the 19th overall pick. They selected seven pitchers in a row in rounds 7-13, but their focus was clearly on the position players.

It is difficult to predict who the Phillies will take in the draft, but I have heard a lot about the Phillies being interested in Anthony Hewitt, a talented high school shortstop from Connecticut. He is the name that keeps popping up in discussions with the Phillies. I tend to think that the Phillies will take a position player with their first round pick for the first time since they took Greg Golson in '04.

Misc. Points: This will be the final draft Pat Gillick oversees as the Phillies G.M. You have to wonder how much imput he'll have and how much imput someone like Assistant G.M. Reuben Amaro, who is Gillick's likely heir apparant, will have on the team.

I'll post some more thoughts tomorrow and Thursday, but I thought that I might put a few things out there now ...

Fans Dig the Long Ball: Reds vs. Phillies Preview

2008-06-02T11:02:00.001-05:00

The Phillies begin a four-game series tonight at Citizens Bank Ballpark with the Cincinnati Reds. Bring your gloves tonight kids, because you just might catch a home run when these two teams play each other. Plus you have a chance to catch some history as Ken Griffey, Jr. goes for #600. Fans dig the long ball.

Since the Phillies and Reds opened Citizens Bank and Great American Ballpark both teams have played in what are probably the two most home-run oriented ballparks in the majors after Coors Field. In 2007 the Home Run Factor for Citizens and Great American was 145 and 133 respectively (i.e., the two parks are 45% and 33% more likely to see a home run hit in them), tops in the major leagues. Because their ballparks are so oriented towards home run-hitting, both teams have shaped their rosters accordingly. Check out the Home Run totals for the last five seasons (including '08) and each team's N.L. rank:

Cincinnati / Philadelphia

2004: 194 (6th) / 215 (2nd)

2005: 222 (1st) / 194 (8th)

2006: 217 (2nd) / 216 (3rd)

2007: 204 (3rd) / 213 (2nd)

2008: 65 (T-3rd) / 85 (1st)

As you can see, this season is no exception. The Phillies continue to whack the ball into the cheap seats at a rate of 1.47 times per game. Extrapolated out of a 162 game season, then the Phillies are on a pace to hit 237 home runs this season. And it just became June, when the air gets a little warmer and the balls really fly out of the park. 240-250 home runs wouldn't be out of the question for the Phillies. The Reds, meanwhile, are on a pace to hit "just" 188 home runs.

The Reds top players are the 24-year old rookie Joey Votto (10 home runs, 29 RBI), second baseman Brandon Phillips (11 home runs, 31 RBI) and outfielder Adam Dunn (14 home runs, 36 RBI, .409 OBP). All three are young (Dunn is the eldest at 28) and all three pack a whallop at the plate. The Reds biggest problem is that they continue to feature Ken Griffey, Jr., out in rightfield. Griffey has seen his once-bright, Hall of Fame future crumble into a bitter disappointment as he has struggled through nearly a decade now in Cincinnati watching from the sidelines on the D.L. Crippling injuries have stolen the prime years of Griffey's career from him. At age 38 he's a decade older than Dunn and nearly every other regular starter on the Reds roster. He's also not producing much anymore: just a .336 OBP and six home runs to go with 27 RBI. If the Reds are engaged in a youth movement, then Griffey needs to go.

But not before Griffey becomes the sixth player to top six hundred home runs. More on that later ...

The Phillies, meanwhile, continue to kill the baseball. Chase Utley leads the N.L. with 20 home runs and 50 RBI. Pat Burrell and Ryan Howard have hit 13 and 15 home runs respectively. Extrapolated over a 162-game season, that means that these players will hit, respectively:

Home Runs:

Chase Utley: 56

Ryan Howard: 43

Pat Burrell: 38

I wonder how many teams have featured teammates with 40+ home runs, let alone any that featured three players with 40+ home runs. The most exceptional part of the Phillies home run production this year is the fact that Jimmy Rollins has hit just three and the Phillies survived over a month with the light-hitting Eric Bruntlett (two home runs in 117 At Bats) in the lineup.

Pitching matchups: Of course it is up to the Phillies and Reds pitchers to make sure that the other side doesn't manage to club some home runs. More particularly, Phillies pitchers want to make sure they aren't the one to surrender #600.

Monday: Kyle Kendrick vs. Bronson Arroyo. Kyle Kendrick hopefully won't be the one to surrender #600. So far this season he's done pretty good not allowing home runs: just five in 57 & 2/3 innings, or 0.74 HR/9. This is an even matchup between Arroyo and Kendrick, although they have different styles. Kendrick is a pitcher who pitches to contact. Arroyo is a strikeout artist. Kendrick gets half the strikeouts Arroyo gets (8.0 K/9 vs. 4.0), walks fewer hitters (3.4 K/9 vs. 2.7), allows fewer homers (1.05 vs. 0.74) and throws fewer pitches per plate appearance (4.0 vs. 3.6).

Tuesday: Adam Eaton vs. Aaron Harang. Bring your gloves Tuesday night because if Kendrick can get past Ken Griffey, Jr. tonight, chances are Adam Eaton will go down in history as Mr. 600. Eaton has been struggling a lot this season. Not as much as last season, but he's been struggling of late. Harang has a nearly 4-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio, so this one looks like a mismatch. Harang's Achillies Heel, however is is penchant for surrendering home runs: 11 in 82 & 2/3 of an inning.

Wednesday: Brett Myers vs. Edinson Volquez. I hope Myers recent strong outing (eight innings, three earned runs, just six hits and eleven strikeouts) is a harbinger of better outings to come. Volquez is a formitable hurler thus far this season. He's 7-2 with a 1.46 ERA. Don't be fooled - he isn't pitching that well - but he's still pitching very well. Like Arroyo and Harang, Volquez is a pitcher who throws a lot of pitches. Unlike guys to pitch to contact like Kendrick, pitchers like Volquez nibble around the edges of the strike zone and play coy with hitters. Volquez has K'd a phenomenal 83 batters this season (11.4 K/9) and has allowed just three home runs (0.41 HR/9), but he's walked 36 batters (5.0 BB/9) and his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA is a run and a half higher at 2.96. This will be a very interesting game.

Thursday: Cole Hamels vs. Homer Bailey. Cole Hamels gets to pitch again against the Reds for the second time this season. He won the first game 5-3, going seven innings and allowing just a single earned run. Some of Hamels most memorable starts have been against the Reds. He made his rookie debut against them in '06 and his eight inning, 15-strikeout masterpiece against them in '07 was the critical game that lifted the Phillies from their 4-11 start and got them back into the playoff race. Homer Bailey is a talented rookie who made his MLB debut in '07 for the team.

Intangibles: the Reds are leading the N.L. in strikeouts at 8.0 K/9, which is pretty impressive. Reds pitchers have to have good stuff however, because they get no help behind them. The Reds rank fifteenth (second to last) in the N.L. in Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER) at .679. The Phillies are more willing to pitch to contact because their defense is better, although at .693 it is still below the league average of .695. I'm amazed that the fact that the Phillies have the fifth-best ERA in the N.L. is flying completely under the radar with most observers. Such a maligned pitching staff playing behind a so-so defense ... Why don't people notice?

Enjoy ... I plan to have a discussion of the '08 MLB Draft tomorrow.

Who ARE these guys? Fishstripes vs. Phillies Preview

2008-05-30T06:00:00.000-05:00

Oftentimes I don't really pay too much attention to the standings at the start of the season. I've seen too many teams come on like gangbusters in April, only to fall back to mediocrity in June and July. If you have a winning record on June 1, then we'll talk. So all during the months of April and May I've been dimly aware that the Florida Marlins, the team that unloaded nearly all of its talent (e.g., Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera) to rebuild once again, were sitting near the top of the standings. As I looked at things the other day, there are what the standings looked like to me:

N.L. East
1. Florida 30-22
2. Philadelphia 31-24
3. Atlanta 28-25
4. New York 25-26
5. Washington 23-31

I was stunned and needed to let the information sink in for a moment before I could process it. Now to all of those Mets fans who questioned my sanity in the preseason for doubting that the '08 Mets were the greatest thing since sliced bread, let me just take a moment and say this:

HA-HA!!!!!!

That felt good ... Well let's just look at the puny Marlins, with their team payroll according to ESPN.com of $22.6 million dollars (half - half! - that of the #29 team, the Tampa Bay Rays at $43.4 million) and the fact that have a better record that the of not-so-mighty New York Mets, spenders of $137 million dollars. Truly stunning. Now, I do intend to take a moment and devote an entire post to mocking the Mets (soon) and dissecting their struggles, but that's not going to be today. Today we are going to try and solve an important question. The Florida Marlins: Who are these guys?

Marlins Offense vs. Phillies Pitching & Fielding. So far the Marlins are scoring runs off their ability to hit home runs. They've hit 76 thus far, second in the N.L. after the Phillies with 79. Dan Uggla leads the team with 16 home runs and 38 RBI. Uggla, who finished third in the 2006 Rookie of the Year Award, is a solid defensive player with a lot of power. He makes a lot of comparisons to Chase Utley because the two play the same position - second base - and hit for power and average, but Uggla isn't the great defensive player that Utley is. While Uggla is an extremely talented player, Hanley Ramirez, the 2006 N.L. Rookie of the Year, is clearly the Fishstripes best: with nine home runs Ramirez has power, but he also supplies something that the Marlins lack this season. Speed. Ramirez has 13 steals in 18 attempts, having swiped half of the Marlins stolen bases.

While Uggla and Ramirez have been great, the big surprise to me is the play of Mike Jacobs. The unheralded Jacobs, who like Uggla and Ramirez debuted with the Marlins in 2006, has quietly hit 11 home runs and 29 RBI so far this season. The Marlins are going to need guys like Jacobs to continue to produce, lest they become a two-man show.

Their power at the plate is the reason why they've scored 254 runs, but they haven't nearly been as efficient as the Phillies have. They've hit .242 with runners in scoring position (BA/RISP) thirteenth in the N.L. Their paltry .326 OBP is also eleventh in the N.L. While the Marlins have scored runs and have had success I believe that their long-term prospects offensively are limited: without good situational hitting or without guys setting the table for the big bats, the Marlins are going to decline offensively because after a while you stop hitting solo home runs and winning games 4-3 by hitting three home runs.

The series will be an interesting test for Brett Myers, who pitches tonight. Can he stop Uggla, Ramirez and Jacobs? Thus far this season Myers has surrendered 15 home runs in 65 innings: 2.07 HR/9. Yikes. Can Myers survive the Fishstripes onslaught? Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer, the Phillies pitchers for Saturday and Sunday respectively, matchup well with the Marlins. Tonight will be the big, critical test.

Phillies Offense vs. Marlins Pitching & Fielding. At the moment the Phillies are doing nearly everything right. They rank second in the N.L. in clutching hitting, they are second in runs scored, first in home runs, third in doubles and fourth in On-Base-Percentage (OBP). They set the table, score runs, hit for power ... all they need is to improve their team speed which languished with Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins on the shelf, but seems to be making a comeback. The Phillies are doing what they are doing largely on the strength of Chase Utley (17 home runs, 46 RBI, .394 OBP) and Pat Burell (13 home runs, 35 RBI, .417 OBP) strong performances. The Phillies have done all of this despite weak play from free agent signee Pedro Feliz (7 home runs, 28 RBI, .305 OBP) and the struggles of superstar Ryan Howard (14 home runs, 38 RBI, .315 OBP). Add in the fact that speedsters Rollins (8/8 steals) and Victorino (12/14 steals) spent much of the season on the bench, and you have a Phillies offense that will only improve as the season wears on.

What do the Marlins send to the mound? A unit that is young (four of their five starting pitchers are younger than the age of 25) and solid, if unspectacular. The Marlins run a little behind the N.L. average in terms of getting strikeouts and allowing walks, so the team's middling 4.25 ERA is no surprise. That the Marlins team ERA is worse than the Phillies (3.99) is a shocker.

Defensively, the Marlins are basically average. There isn't a whole lot separating the Phillies and the Marlins here. Both teams are near the N.L. average of .695 in terms of Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER):

Marlins: .699 DER

Phillies: .692 DER

What does the series hold? With the Phillies coming off their big sweep of the Rockies which saw them score 33 runs, the Phillies clearly have momentum. My prediction is that the Marlins get to Brett Myers tonight and win a close one, but that the Phillies win Saturday and Sunday. Have a good weekend everyone ...

The Mind of Charlie Manuel

2008-05-28T06:27:00.002-05:00

A little while ago I had done a talkback with a Chicago Cubs blogger and he asked me to give his readers a sense of what kind of a manager Charlie Manuel is. My answer was that Manuel was a near-ideal manager for the Phillies: patient (he’s got a team full of veterans), laid-back (you need to be to survive the maelstrom that is the Philadelphia media circus), and a manager who plays to his team’s strengths (power-hitting, fielding). I thought I might take a moment to take a look at what we can derive from Manuel’s strategic maneuvers as the Phillies skipper.

Managing in baseball is a pretty tough thing to look at and evaluate. In football coaches shape their team’s actions as in no other sport and are recognized for doing such. The football coaches devise the complicated game-plans (e.g. Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson), install complicated and innovative schemes (e.g., San Francisco 49ers coach Bill Walsh and his West Coast Offense or Michigan Coach Rich Rodriguez and his spread-option offense), motivate players (Bill Parcells was a genius at this). To a lesser extent coaches in the NBA and NHL shape their teams too by devising strategies to emphasize and magnify strengths and downplay weaknesses. But unlike in football and basketball and hockey, where the action is fluid and much of the action and decision-making lays in the hands of the coaches, baseball is the game where the players make the key decisions and the format of the game is fairly static. Managing in baseball is less like being at the helm of the battleship as it steams into battle than sitting as the chairman of the board at a Fortune 500 Company.

But managers do shape their teams in far subtler ways that have real impact as the 162-game season unfolds.

I think we can look at a number of things and see how Charlie Manuel manages. Here are a few things that are important:

1. Charlie Manuel got his start in the American League. In Manuel’s first two seasons of managing a Cleveland Indians team in decline (the previous season, in 1999, it had blown a massive lead to the Boston Red Sox in the ALDS, flaming out from the playoffs yet again) were quite successful: the Indians went 90-72 and 91-71. In ’02 Manuel was cashiered after the Tribe got off to a 39-48 start, the beginning of the Indians rebuilding campaign. In the AL, with the designated hitter, they do thing differently. There is more of an emphasis on power-hitting and moving runners around the bases than on timely hitting and speed. Seeing how the Phillies routinely hit poorly in the clutch yet score bushels of runs thanks to their power-hitting, you can see how Manuel’s experiences shaped him when he was the Indians skipper.

2. 2007 was different. The 2007 campaign represented a number of doctrinal shifts in Manuel’s thinking. The evolution of Manuel towards speed and defense – a more National League-oriented game – occurred in ’07. Let’s measure speed two ways: stolen bases attempted and pinch-runners.

The number of stolen base attempts is pretty obvious in terms of the meaning it conveys. After ranking eighth in stolen base attempts in 2006, the Phillies jumped to second in 2007, after the Mets. Manuel did have terrific personnel to pull off the move (Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn) but Victorino and Rollins had been on the roster in ’06 and they hadn’t run much. Victorino had played extensively in ’06 and attempted a mere seven steals. In ’07 he attempted 41. Rollins was pretty consistent in ’06 and ’07, but he was the team’s sole base-stealing threat in ’06. In fact, he attempted 43% of the Phillies steals in ‘06, while attempting 30% in ’07.

Not persuaded? Okay, look at the increasing number of pinch-runners the Phillies used in 2007. As the Indians coach in ’00 and ’01, Manuel used 40 and 30 pinch-runners respectively. That number increased slightly in ’05 when Manuel took over the Phillies: 36. It jumped to 42 in 2006. In ’07 Manuel used 56 pinch-runners, most in the majors. The average N.L. team, as a matter of fact, utilized such 28 pinch-runners, half what the Phillies used. I don’t think this was solely a factor of personnel – the fact that Manuel had the speedy Michael Bourn sitting on the bench – but of a real interest in utilizing speed whenever possible to stretch the defense. When Bourn was on the DL Chris Roberson, the speedy and talented outfielder whom Bourn beat-out for the fourth outfielder slot oftentimes got into the game when the Phillies needed some speed.

Defense became much more important to Manuel. When Manuel took over the Phillies in ’05 he made 19 defensive substitutions. The next year he more than doubled that, making 49. Last year Charlie Manuel made a whopping 75 defensive substitutions, second-most in the N.L. after the Nationals Manny Acta. The average N.L. team made 48 … What that tells me was that Manuel consistently wanted to see better defensive players in the game and to do so he was willing to sacrifice some offense. Typically, the defensive switch Manuel would make would be to bring Michael Bourn into the game to play leftfield in place of Pat Burrell. If the game rolled on and Bourn came to hit, the Phillies would find themselves with a light-hitting outfielder in Burrell’s spot, costing the team plenty of offensive firepower.

However Manuel placed such a premium on defense that he usually assumed the risk and made the switch. Again, like with stealing bases and pinch-hitters, defensive substitutions are typically a National League thing. In 2007, the average A.L. team utilized 32 defensive substitutions. The average N.L. team utilized 48. Five N.L. teams utilized more defensive substitutions than the Texas Rangers, who led the A.L. with 53.

3. Manuel doesn’t tinker. Charlie Manuel utilized 87 different lineups in 2007, second-fewest in the N.L. after the Braves Bobby Cox with 86. The average N.L. manager utilized 115 lineups. I think there is a tendency amongst baseball managers to tinker with their lineups to show people how smart they are and how hard they are working. For example: the manager who decides to sit Person A from the lineup because he hits .001 lower against lefties than Person B. That is someone who is needlessly tinkering and fidgeting with their lineup because that what they think wins baseball games. Players want to know where they are hitting in the lineup and they want to stay there.

Manuel was exceedingly consistent in terms of his lineup usage. His 87 lineups in ’07 is right in line with the 81 he used in ’06 and the 80 he used in ’05.

4. Manuel is a good tactician. This is sort of a tough thing to judge because it is tempting a lot of times to engage in Monday Morning Quarterbacking and pass judgment on whether or not bringing Person A in was a better move than bringing Person B into the lineup or on the mound. It is difficult to tell, difficult to get an actual idea about which decision was the best. I am going to focus on Manuel’s decision-making where it comes to utilizing the intentional walk. The IBB is usually a maneuver teams employ to minimize damage by setting up force-outs or to avoid dangerous hitters. Oftentimes it comes back to bite teams in the butt. The Bill James Handbook started looking at whether or not their utilization of the IBB was good (no runs scored in the inning or the next guy grounds into a double play), not good (one run scored in the inning) or the bomb (two or more runs scored). Manuel utilized the IBB 62 times in 2007. 41 times the outcome was good. That’s a 66% success rate. The average N.L. manager utilized the IBB 50 times, 31 of them good. That’s a 62% success rate.

Okay, my belief in Manuel’s tactical-decision making is partly subject to conjecture, but he really does a nice job in the dugout, in my opinion. He sets a stable lineup and plays to his team’s strengths. He’s willing to change and makes good tactical decisions. And he’s a winner. Aside from his short season in ’02, he’s had teams that contended for the playoffs each and every season. Can’t argue with that.

Book Review: Hammerin' Hank, George Almighty and the Say Hey Kid

2008-05-27T06:01:00.000-05:00

First of all, as some of you might have noticed, it has been two weeks since I posted anything on A Citizens Blog. No, I am not quitting. Between work and some other things I had a few crisis that needed to be resolved and I needed a brief break from thinking about the Phillies. Now that I'm back I am eager to make up for lost time. This week alone I'll be posting a big piece analyzing Charlie Manuel's managing style and a preview of the Phillies & Marlins series at the end of the week. My recent pieces have been short on analysis, a deficiency I hope to correct soon.

Let's start off with a book review.

The 1970's may not have been a great era for America - Watergate, malaise, gas shortages, the Iranian Hostage Crisis, bell-bottom pants and disco - but it was actually a good era for baseball in many respects. The game had declined in the late 1950's as the public left the cities near their teams in favor of the suburbs. Football, a game uniquely suited for television, took off in popularity following the 1958 NFL title game between the Baltimore Colts and New York Giants, as the NFL-AFL rivalry in the 1960's spurred interest in the game. Baseball no longer seemed relevant in the rebellious era of the 1960's. Pitchers came to dominate the game in the '60s, great stars like Mickey Mantle retired, fans felt disconnected to the game and baseball seemed ill-suited to adapting with the changing times.

That changed in the 1970's as baseball emerged from the dark days of the 1960's and began to embrace a more exciting form of baseball. Speed combined with power and made baseball more exciting and multifaceted than it had been in the station-to-station, wait for the home run 1950's. Dramatic personalities entered the picture, a welcome departure from the staid conformity of the 1950's. George Steinbrenner bought the Yankees, that symbol of 1950's establishment corporatism, and injected some life into a dull entity. The Oakland A's won three consecutive titles between 1972 and 1974, featuring a team that was never dull and uninteresting. Oh, and some guy out in Kansas City took out some paper and began to write about baseball in his spare time as a night watchman. It was, in many respects, a great era for baseball.

It is with all of that in mind I sat down and began to read Hammerin' Hank, George Almighty and the Say Hey Kid, the story of the 1973 baseball season. Written by John Rosengren, Hammerin' Hank has a lot of material to move through and I wanted to see what the author did with it. I was very impressed with Rosengren's approach. He really tries to move the reader to get a feel for the season as it unfolded, practically day-by-day. As the story moves along we get to see how the '73 season unfolded, but we also hear about Nixon and Watergate and how events outside of the game drove the public and impacted the game.

Some things about the '73 season that Rosengren reminds us:

-Hank Aaron made his run on Babe Ruth's record of 714 home runs in the 1973 season before falling a little short and breaking the record early in the '74 season. Aaron's story is pretty dramatic: the virulent racism hurled at the quiet man whose sin was that he was black and exceptionally talented. Aaron made his run on Babe Ruth's record amid exceptional hatred and intimidation. Rosengren's book is worth reading alone for the discussion about Aaron's season from hell.

-The novel Designated Hitter Rule began in '73, an innovation which would dramatically alter the game. It would seperate the American League from the National League and be an excellant example of how innovations to the game in the '70s helped bring fans back.

-What a colorful and exciting group the 1970's Oakland Athletics were. Reggie Jackson, Jim "Catfish" Hunter, Joe Rudi, Dick Williams and Owner Charlie Finley - I doubt that baseball will ever see such an interesting and diverse collection of personalities to grace the game ever again. The A's feuded and fought and argued and won again and again and again. Aside from the Yankees, no other franchise has won three consecutive World Series as the A's did from '72 to '74. If Charlie Finley had the financial resources of Steinbrenner, who purchased the Yankees in '73, the A's of the 1970s might have stayed together and done terrific things. Sadly, we'll never know.

I loved every page of Hammerin' Hank, George Almighty and the Say Hey Kid and couldn't put it down once I picked it up. That's what a good book should do for you ...

Phillies - Braves Series Preview

2008-05-13T14:49:00.001-05:00

Sorry for the late afternoon post, but I've been busy. Better late than never, right? Alright, five things to keep in mind about the Braves & Phillies series tonight ...

1. The Braves are a lot better than their 19-18 record suggests. I like to follow teams Pythagorean Win-Loss records and compare them to their 'real' records to predict which teams are lucky and due for a fall or resurgence. Looking at records so far this season I'm seeing the Braves as a team that is poised to make a resurgence. As of this morning, this is where the N.L. East standings sit:

1. Florida: 23-15
2. Philadelphia: 21-18
3. New York: 19-17
4. Atlanta: 19-18
5. Washington: 16-23

Here are the Pythagorean Win-Loss records:

1. Atlanta: 23-14
2. Philadelphia: 21-18
3. Florida: 20-18
4. New York: 19-17
5. Washington: 16-23

The Mets, Phillies and Nationals are all hitting their pythagorean win-loss records right on the mark, but the Marlins are over-performing by three games and the Braves are under-performing by four. Why is that? Well, the Braves have a terrible record in close (i.e., games decided by two runs or less) games at 4-10. When they start getting those break landing their way, I think that the Braves will start winning and will validate my prediction that they'll win the N.L. East in 2008.

2. The Braves have a darn good pitching staff. Of the Phillies five starters, four boast ERAs of 4.93 or above:

Cole Hamels: 3.36
Kyle Kendrick: 4.93
Jamie Moyer: 5.02
Brett Myers: 5.33
Adam Eaton: 5.40

lower than 3.00. Compare that to the Braves starters: Tim Hudson (2.54) and John Smoltz (2.00) have ERAsJair Jurrgens, who tossed just thirty innings in relief for the Tigers last season, is 4-3 with a 3.10 ERA. Braves pitchers rank fourth in the N.L. in strikeouts per nine innings (7.26), while the Phillies rank twelfth (6.09). The Braves also rank first (or last, depending on how you view it ... let's just say "best") in OPS against at .664.

Bizarrely, Phillies starters have turned in slightly more (19 to 18) Quality Starts (a start where a pitcher tossed six or more innings and surrenders three or fewer runs) than the Braves. Go figure.

3. The Braves field well. Their fielding percentage is just seventh in the N.L. to the Phillies fourteenth, but they were also second in Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER), meaning that Braves fielders converted balls put into play into outs 71.8% of the time, second to just the Cubs at 72%.

4. The Braves can hit. They have a better OPS than the Phillies (.789 to .755), a slightly better batting average with runners in scoring position (.250 to .249 BA/RISP), and have scored more runs per game (4.89 to 4.74).

5. The Braves are going to sweep this series. Sorry, Phillies fans, but the Braves are a sleeping giant.

The Need for Speed

2008-05-12T06:01:00.001-05:00

The Phillies emerge from a so-so trip out to the West which saw the team drop four of even games against the Diamondbacks and Giants with an off-day before starting up a three-game series with the Atlanta Braves tomorrow. I’ll preview the Phillies – Braves series tomorrow.

Despite losing two of three to the Giants over the weekend, I think the Phillies are returning a stronger team than they left Philadelphia as. Jimmy Rollins has returned to the roster and extended trips to the West Coast have to be draining on the Phillies. Up next: the Braves and then an inter-league series with the Toronto Blue Jays, a rematch of the 1993 World Series …

I wanted to talk a little about speed and the Phillies … There are basically two things we look at to measure speed in baseball: stolen bases and triples. The stolen base is a measure of speed because the player attempting to steal has to traverse the area from first to second while the ball is still within the baseball diamond area. You have to be fast to go from a dead-stop to a run and accomplish that. We also look at triples because players need to be quick to leg out the extra 90 feet to take this from a double to a three-bagger. We usually don’t count doubles because usually doubles are the product of hard-hit balls to distant portions of the ballpark rather than speed.

As those who read sabremetric publications like The Hardball Times or Baseball Prospectus, or who read Michael Lewis’ Moneyball, know the stolen base isn’t typically a strategy held in high esteem by the sabremetrics community. I’ve often argued that where you stand on the stolen base is a pretty good indication about whether or not you stand on the Catholic or Protestant divide of baseball, the old schoolers or the sabremetricians. To the old school, Small Ballers, the argument for the stolen base is basically this: you’ve got to be aggressive and do little things like bunt, hit-and-run and, yes, steal, to get that extra base to get into position to score and to claw out those runs.

The counter-argument is basically that base-stealing is counter-productive because the penalty for being caught stealing out-weighs the benefits. Better to play safer station-to-station baseball, advancing runners with singles, doubles and the mighty home run. Consider this …

According to Baseball Prospectus’ Run Expectancy Matrix (see, Table 4-1.1 of Baseball Between the Numbers), a team with a runner on first and no outs can expect to score 0.9259 runs in an inning. Let’s say that runner attempts to steal second base. There are two possible outcomes:

If he’s safe, the run expectancy matrix improves to 1.1596, an improvement of 0.2337 …
If he’s out, the run expectancy matrix declines to 0.2866, a decline of 0.6393 …

Your position can increase by a quarter of a run, or it can decline by two-thirds of a run. The guys at Baseball Prospectus ran the numbers and determined that a stolen base adds 0.1593 runs to a team’s total, while a caught stealing subtracts 0.3687 runs from a team’s total.

If you play the numbers, the BP guys argue, then stealing bases is a losing strategy unless you can be successful around 73% of the time.

The 2007 Phillies were a remarkable successful team in this respect, successfully stealing 138 bases in 157 tries, for a 88% success rate. Applying the numbers above, the Phillies added 22 runs to their offense with base-stealing though they lost 7 runs with the caught stealings. Total net gain: 15 runs. The New York Mets, the Phillies competition last season, led the majors with 200 stolen bases, but their aggressive base-running only netted them an extra 15 runs as well because they were caught stealing 46 times (in fact, they were actually a tenth of a run behind the Phillies). While it isn’t conventional sabremetric wisdom, I think that the stolen base was a successful strategy and helped the Phillies improve their offense in ‘07. I think that most of the credit for that belongs to First Base Coach Davey Lopes, who was brought onto the team last season to help Charlie Manuel. Taking players like Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn and Chris Roberson aside, he made them all into aggressive base-runners who stole bases by the bushel. J.Roll and Victorino finished fifth and sixth respectively in terms of stolen bases in the N.L. in 2007, with J.Roll swiping 41 in 47 tries (87.2% success) and Victorino taking 37 of 41 (90.2%). Michael Bourn, in limited playing time, stole 18 of 19 bases (94.7%).

Applying BP’s numbers, that meant that J.Roll’s running added 4.32 runs, Victorino added 4.42 runs, and Bourn added 2.50 runs. Compare those totals to that of the Mets Jose Reyes, who led the N.L. in steals with 78 in 99 attempts (78.8%), but whose manic base-running only added 4.68 runs.

Lopes also helped press Jimmy Rollins in the basepaths to leg out more triples. J.Roll, who had previously led the N.L. in triples three times, led the N.L. in triples once again, but he hit 20 in ‘07, eight more than his previous season highs in ’01 and ’04. With Lopes counsel, the Phillies went from eighth in stolen bases in 2006 to second last season, and from sixth in triples to first last season.

Now, one thing that I thought when I looked at the Phillies base-stealing totals was that Lopes tutelage helped the Phillies run the bases well. Well … the Phillies base-running stats yield some interesting facts. While the Phillies over-all gained +104 bases in 2007 with their aggressiveness on the bases, they gained 100 of those 104 via base-stealing. The Phillies rated a +4 based on pure running on the bases according to the 2007 Bill James Handbook … As an aside, I’ll note that the Mets likewise struggled, posting an MLB-best +111, of which all but three were a product of base-stealing … It is kind of an interesting thing: that the two fastest teams in baseball were actually average base-running teams. The best MLB in running the bases in 2007 was, of all teams, the Kansas City Royals at +60. The best team in the N.L. was the Atlanta Braves at +40.

What else? The Phillies made 24 base-running outs, which was pretty average (the N.L. average was 22.6) … Phillies base-runners scored about 29% of the time, a little bit better than the MLB average of 28%.

One way of looking at what Lopes did was to look at the improvements Victorino and Rollins made in ’07 over their ’06 stats. (Not enough data to look at Bourn.) Unfortunately, while there is data on Victorino, there isn’t much. Victorino made a base-running out and was +14 in base-running in ’06. Last season he made four base-running outs and was +36, but James sub-divides base-running (+7) from base-stealing (+29). Looking at Victorino’s numbers, I cannot say that there is anything to support m theory that Lopes influence made the team better, more aggressive base-runners or improved the team in any better.

The numbers are much different with Rollins: in ’06 Rollins was a mere +9 in base-running and made four base-running outs. In ’07, Rollins was a whopping +61. While +29 of that was base-stealing, even more – +32 – was honest-to-goodness base-running. Additionally, Rollins didn’t make a single base-running out. It is difficult to draw conclusions from numbers relating to one player, but it seems likely to me that Lopes influence made Rollins a better threat running the bases and helped make him the 2007 N.L. MVP. Given how critical Rollins play was to the Phillies success last season, then Lopes – it could be argued – played a vital role in securing the Phillies the N.L. East title by making J.Roll into an aggressive base-runner.

The Phillies have had numerous set-backs this season and I wondered how the setbacks were affecting the Phillies totals. First, the Phillies dealt Michael Bourn to the Astros in the Brad Lidge deal, thus losing their fourth outfielder and their primary defensive replacement / pinch-runner. Then Lopes was diagnosed with cancer and took a leave of absence from the team. Finally, Rollins and Victorino both went down during big portions of the month of April. Rollins only just made his return to the lineup Friday night against the San Francisco Giants.

At the moment the Phillies top base-stealer is – surprise, surprise – Jayson Werth with six steals in seven tries. Victorino is right behind him with five in six tries, while J.Roll has swiped just two. Collectively the Phillies have 21 steals in 26 attempts (80.7%). The Phillies have also only hit five triples so far this season. Astonishingly, Ryan Howard (1) has out-tripled Jimmy Rollins (0). That will change …

Overall, the Phillies rank ninth in stolen bases and eleventh in triples. The Phillies poor showing in both categories is largely a product of Rollins and Lopes being away from the team. Rollins is already back in the lineup and Davey Lopes ought to re-join the team shortly. I’d expect to see the Phillies get much, much more aggressive on the bases and start to really stretch opposing defenses. It is worth noting that despite the Phillies injuries the team has emerged from April with a winning record and sits, at 21-18, just three games out of first place at the moment. With J.Roll back, look for the Phillies to start positing some big speed numbers to balance their awesome power stats.

Phillies – Braves tomorrow.

The Bourn Trade

2008-05-07T11:52:00.013-05:00

This is a late post, but a late post is better than a never post ... Last night's 6-4 loss to the Diamondbacks evens the series at 1-1 and saw Randy "Big Unit" Johnson post his 286th career victory, good enough to tie former Phillies great Robin Roberts at 27th all-time. Good work, Randy Johnson. It is unfortunate that Adam Eaton notched his first loss of the season after beginning the year quite well.

Tonight: Micah Owings (4-1, 4.41 ERA) vs. Kyle Kendrick (2-2, 5.01 ERA). Good luck, Kyle.

Prediction: Diamondbacks 8, Phillies 2. Kendrick is done is three innings or less.

Today's topic will be a brief evaluation of the Michael Bourn - Brad Lidge trade between the Phillies and Astros from this off-season and how the trade looks from one month plus into the 2008 season. A little recap: back on November 7 of last year the Phillies and Astros struck up a deal wherein the Phillies shipped Michael Bourn, their fourth outfielder in 2007, to the Astros along with prospect Mike Costanzo and middle reliever Geoff Geary in exchange for Closer Brad Lidge and Infielder Eric Bruntlett. The Phillies, jammed with Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino and Pat Burrell in the outfield, had no room for the speedy Bourn, who had wowed Phillies fans with 18 steals in 19 attempts in 2007. What they needed as a closer to get Brett Myers back into the rotation, thus improving the Phillies pitching staff in a two-for-the-price-one deal.

Reaction was generally mixed. Click here for a piece by Baseball Prospectus' Nate Silver blasting the Phillies for making the deal.

Well, I thought I might take a few moments to discuss how the deal is shaping up at the moment.
What the Astros Got:

Michael Bourn: currently the Astros starting centerfielder. So far this season he's wowed observers with 13 steals in 13 attempts. That means he's stolen 31 bases in 32 attempts the last two seasons combined. At his current pace of base-stealing, Bourn will steal 70-75 bases this season, a pretty nice total. Additionally, Bourn is one of the best defensive centerfielders in the National League. According to Relative Zone Rating (RZR), Bourn is the third-best in the N.L. with an RZR of .965. Bourn is also leading the N.L. in assists with three.

Before you get too impressed by Bourn's stats, let me just print a number that tells you all that you need to know about Bourn's abilities as a lead-off hitter:

.275

That's not Bourn's Batting Average. That's Bourn's On-Base Percentage. .275 ... At the moment Bourn is hitting .194, an absurdly low total with brings down his respectable .100 walks per plate appearance. I think Bourn's problem is that he strikes out waaaay too much: 28 times in 120 plate appearances. This might be a fluke: Bourn's Batting Average on Balls Put Into Play (BA/BIP) is just .234, nearly one hundred points lower than what he did last season with the Phillies: .330. He's going to have to hit better to be a more viable threat to steal bases and score runs. Despite those 13 steals, Bourn's scored just 14 runs, a pretty small total in my opinion. It is too soon to liken Bourn to Vince Coleman, the speedy outfielder who was the 1985 Rookie of the Year with the St. Louis Cardinals when he stole 110 bases but posted an anemic .320 OBP. Coleman was a fast player (he led the National League in stolen bases six consecutive seasons from 1985 to 1990), but he was hampered by his inability to get on base. His career OBP was just .324. Bourn is shaping up to be a speed demon who doesn't get on base enough.

Geoff Geary: Geary is having a solid season with the Astros, having tossed 14 innings with a 0-1 record and an ERA of 1.93. Geary's numbers are interesting because he's struck 15 batters out and walked eight, both are high numbers. Can a relief pitcher continue to keep giving batters free passes and then blow fastballs past them? I am skeptical, but at the moment Geary is the biggest part of the Lidge deal to actually be contributing to the Astros.

Mike Costanzo: this part of the deal is a little tough to evaluate because Costanzo was shipped back east to Baltimore as part of the Miguel Tejada deal. We'll start with Costanzo, who is currently playing with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides in the International League, and has struggled a little this season, with three home runs and nine RBI. His OPS is just .696. This is a big drop-off from the 27 home runs and 86 RBI he had in Double-A Reading last season. Costanzo's future potential is considerable, however, so don't be surprised to see him produce for the Orioles in 2008 and beyond.

Tejada, if you want to include him in the deal, has hit five home runs and 25 RBI and is powering the Astros offense. Costanzo's addition, which helped to bring Tejada's, might be the biggest part of the deal for the Astros, though Geary's impact clearly seems to be the most significant.

What the Phillies Got:

Brad Lidge: has been quite good as the Phillies closer since he returned from his pre-season knee injury. Lidge is currently 1-0 with an ERA of 0.00 and seven saves in seven tries. Naturally, Lidge's performance isn't sustainable, but he's gotten quite a few strikeouts (13 in 15 innings of work, or 7.8 K/9) although his walk rate (6 walks, or 3.6 BB/9) is very high as well. Lidge should save 35-40 games for the Phillies and give the team the reliable closer it needs to make a push on the N.L. East.

Eric Bruntlett: since Jimmy Rollins went down, Bruntlett has filled in as the Phillies starting shortstop and has done a decent job. Sort of a throw-in piece to the deal to give it some balance, Bruntlett has been pressed into service as the Phillies starting shortstop with 2007 N.L. MVP Jimmy Rollins on the D.L. Bruntlett's performance initially was bad (four errors in the field, an On Base Percentage of just .296), but he's improved of late. In games 1 & 2 of this series with the D-Backs, Bruntlett has two runs score, six RBI and a double, a triple and a home run on four-for-ten hitting.

Analysis: Time will tell how Bourn, et al. for Lidge, et al. impact the Phillies and Astros. Will Lidge be in a Phillies uniform in 2009? Will Bourn turn around, post a .300+ batting average and get on base enough to steal 100 or more bases? Will Geary struggle? Will Bruntlett turn into an effective middle-infielder? Will Costanzo get to Camden Yards, go on a tear and ultimately make the Orioles the real winners of this deal? Time shall tell.

The Diamondbacks Series & Jeremy Slayden

2008-05-06T11:11:00.000-05:00

From my perspective here is the remarkable thing about last night's 11-4 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks in the desert of the American Southwest: the Phillies didn't hit a single home run.

For those too bleary-eyed to stay up last night (or are too fixated on the Flyers impending series against the Pittsburgh Penguins) the Phillies defeated the Diamondbacks, the best team in the majors right now, 11-4 thanks to 17 hits and a nice outing from Jamie Moyer (seven innings pitched, two runs allowed, five strikeouts and zero walks). The victory kept the Phillies in first place and gave them a win to lead off their seven game road stand. As of this morning the Phillies own the N.L. East by a game:

N.L. East
1. Phillies: 19-14
2. Florida: 17-14 (1.0 Games Back)
3. Mets: 16-14 (1.5 Games Back)
4. Braves: 15-15 (2.5 Games Back)
5. Nationals: 14-18 (4.5 Games Back)

As I noted, the Phillies clocked 17 hits and not one was a home run. You know it is a good night at the plate when your pitcher (Moyer) goes 2-for-3 with a double and an RBI. Even more remarkable: Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell combined to go 1-for-9. Yes, it was a good night in the desert.

Tonight it is Adam Eaton vs. Randy Johnson. Read my post from yesterday to gain a better sense of the quasi-remarkable season that Eaton is having. Eaton will be hard-pressed to notch his first win of the season though against the Big Unit, who is pitching a lot better than his stats suggest: 1-1, 4.79 ERA. Johnson's DIPS ERA is 3.84, which is nearly a run better. The simple problem is that the D-Backs aren't playing good enough defense behind him. They've converted just 68.3% of the balls Johnson has allowed to be put into play into outs. Johnson is, as always, a formidable strikeout pitcher: 22 strikeouts in 20 and two-thirds of an inning of work. This is a mismatch that heavily favors the D-Backs.

Nice post on yesterday's game from the Inquirer's Todd Zolecki.

Quick look at a minor-leaguer of note: Jeremy Slayden. An eighth round pick in the 2005 Draft out of Georgia Tech, Slayden hasn't caught the attention of publications like Baseball America or has really registered in the minds of most fans. That's a shame because Slayden is a real talent:

w/ Double-A Reading ('08): OPS: .903 / HR: 3 / RBI: 20 / Doubles: 7 / OBP: .386 / ISO: .197
w/ Single-A Clearwater ('07): OPS: .834 / HR: 14 / RBI: 73 / Doubles: 24 / OBP: .376 / ISO: .171
w/ Single-A Lakewood ('06): OPS: .891 / HR: 10 / RBI: 81 / Doubles: 44 / OBP: .381 / ISO: .200

Even in the pitching-friendly Florida State League (FSL), Slayden mashed the heck out of the ball. He's one of those players who doesn't get a lot of ink because he wasn't highly drafted, he isn't flashy and pro scouts likely have a low opinion of his abilities. "Slow-footed slugger" is probably the most commonly written description of Slayden in the notebooks of scouts.

Slayden's rise through the Phillies system is a testament to the idea that a player's performance trumps the assumptions made. Perhaps Jeremy Slayden is a slow-footed slugger, but he wields a powerful bat. You'll see him in Philadelphia later this year, or early next.

Adam Eaton Rocks & Phillies vs. Diamondbacks

2008-05-05T06:50:00.001-05:00

Okay, the title is a little tongue-in-cheek, but it is partly true. Don’t look now Phillies fans but Adam Eaton, the disaster who had a 6.29 ERA last season, the guy who was pitching so bad that the Phillies left him off their playoff roster with the Colorado Rockies despite the fact that the Phillies are paying him $24 million dollars over the next three seasons … Isn’t pitching half bad this season.

Let’s take you back to a year ago. In the 2006-2007 off-season the Phillies signed Eaton, a former Phillies draft pick the team had sent west to the San Diego Padres in a trade years earlier, to a three-year, $24 million dollar deal (someone correct me if the numbers are off on that figure). In a pitching-thin marketplace, Eaton was one of the better talents out there, having gone 7-4 with a 5.12 ERA the previous season with the Texas Rangers. Eaton, who had spent the previous six seasons with the Padres after breaking in during the ’00 season, had started just thirteen games for the Rangers and had given up 11 home runs. He struggled, but had put up good numbers from ’00 – ’05 for the Padres and the Phillies desperately wanted to augment their leaky pitching staff. So the red pinstripes cut a check and Eaton came back to the team that saw enough in him to take him in the draft.

Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined with respect to pitching stats:
Earned Run Average (ERA): Runs Allowed * 9 / Innings Pitched = What a pitcher would give up if they hurled a nine-inning game.
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): (((13 * HR) + (3 * BB) – (2 * K)) / IP) + League Factor. Basically a measure of how a pitcher would have done if he had an average defense behind him.
Defense Independent Pitching Statistic (DIPS): The more sophisticated version of FIP developed by Voros McCracken that takes into account park factors and other considerations.
Home Runs per 9 Innings (HR/9): (HR * 9) / IP
Walks per 9 Innings (BB/9): (BB * 9) / IP
Strikeouts per 9 Innings (K/9): (K * 9) / IP

The end result was disaster. A 10-10 record that was largely the product of run support, as it was built on an ERA of 6.29. Eaton walked 71 hitters (3.95 BB/9) and gave up 30 home runs (1.67 HR/9). Opponents grounded into 19 double plays against him, more a product of them having so many runners on base than Eaton’s skills. Eaton’s 97 strikeouts in 161 and two-thirds of an inning (5.4 K/9) were respectable, but when coupled with his walk rate, they gave him a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1.37 (K/BB). Eaton was so bad that he earned just one Win Share in 2007, two below what a bench player would have earned. (In contrast, Cole Hamels earned 15 in 2007.) The Phillies, in the playoffs despite Eaton’s struggles, took no chances and left Eaton off the team’s playoff roster against the Rockies. In the off-season the team tried everything they could think of to scrap together pitching talent on the cheap, taking Travis Blackley from San Francisco in the Rule 5 Draft, and signing Chad Durbin from the Detroit Tigers. Neither Blackley nor Durbin could oust Eaton from the job, however, and Eaton returned to the Phillies rotation for 2008.

The numbers don’t really reflect it, but Eaton’s been pretty good this season: yeah he doesn’t have a win yet, but he also doesn’t have a loss. His six starts were all no-decisions. There are a few things that impress me though once you look inside of the numbers:

First off, Eaton’s average Game Score for this season has been 48. His average Game Score in 2007 was 42. Game Score is a stat devised by Bill James where a pitcher begins with a score of 50 and then is awarded or subtracted points for various events: add a point for a strikeout, subtract one for a walk, subtract four points for a run allowed, etc.

Second, four of Eaton’s six starts have been Quality Starts. A Quality Start is a start where the pitcher allows three or less runs and makes it six innings or more. Eaton tossed just 9 of those in 30 starts last season.

The reason for Eaton’s success this season has been that he’s cut down on the extra-base hits. Eaton’s slugging percentage allowed is just .402, far less than the .520 he allowed in 2007. So far this season he’s allowed three home runs in 34 and one-third of an inning (0.79 HR/9). As a result, Eaton’s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA has dropped this season to 4.09, nearly two runs better than last season’s 5.93 FIP. Incidentially, Eaton’s 4.09 FIP is just behind the 4.00 FIP posted by a certain Mets pitcher who we’ll call Johan S. … And Eaton's FIP is better than the Mets John Maine (4.71), the much-vaunted pitcher who Mets fans acted like I was crazy for believing wasn't the Second Coming.

What about DIPS, you ask? Well, Eaton's DIPS is a little worse: 4.35. Still, that's better than his real ERA and takes park factors into account. Additionally, Eaton's DIPS is better than Oliver Perez (4.38), Maine (4.86), Jamie Moyer (4.82) and the Giants Matt Cain (4.63).

It is a little too soon to hand out the Cy Young award to Eaton, however. He needs to improve his strikeout and walk ratios before he can be called out of the woods. His K/BB ratio this season is 1.46, barely improved over last season.

The inability to get strikeouts is where Eaton has struggled over the last few seasons. In Eaton’s first six seasons with the Padres his strikeouts per nine innings rate was 6.00 or better:

K/9:
2000: 6.00
2001: 8.41
2002: 6.75
2003: 7.18
2004: 6.91
2005: 7.00

Since then he’s been sub-6.00:

K/9:
2006 (Rangers): 5.95
2007 (Phillies): 5.40
2008 (Phillies): 5.34

He needs to improve that, and soon.

Here’s a little-known fact about Adam Eaton: there probably isn’t a pitcher in baseball tougher to get a steal off of. In 2007 fifteen baserunners tried to steal a base off Eaton. Nine failed, a success rate of just 40%. The previous season, in Texas, two in seven were successful. So far this season: one successful steal in three tries.

I had almost forgotten, but the Phillies begin a big four-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight in the desert of Arizona, the start of a week-long roadtrip that will take the Phillies to the Bay Area to play the Giants again. Cole Hamels and Tim Lincecum are set to rematch Friday Night after last night’s 6-5 Phillies win netted a no-decision for both pitchers.

I would consider a 2-2 split of the Phillies – Diamondbacks series to be a major victory for the Phillies. The 21-10 D-Backs are clearly the best team in baseball right now and boast the best pitching staff in the majors. How good is the D-Backs 1-2 punch of Brandon Webb (7-0, 2.49 ERA, 3.00 DIPS) and Dan Haren (4-1, 3.12 ERA, 3.34 DIPS)? Fortunately for the Phillies, they miss Haren and have to face just Webb in this series. Adam Eaton squares off with the Big Unit (1-1, 4.79 ERA, 3.84 DIPS) tomorrow night. The D-Backs are second in the N.L. in runs scored and lead the N.L. in slugging percentage and triples. Not surprisingly, their team ERA is also best in the majors. They have a number of talented players who are really producing well and they rely on no one person to be successful. While the D-Backs have hit 36 home runs, nobody has hit more than 7. They are balanced and deep. Young, fast, aggressive, the D-Backs are built to be a powerhouse for a long time to come. This will be a tough series for the Phillies to win. If I had to bet on which game the phillies could win, I’d bet on tonight’s Jamie Moyer vs. Max Scherzer matchup.

Tomorrow: I’ll talk a little about last night’s game and a little about the Reading Phillies Jeremy Slayden.

Phillies Notes

2008-05-02T09:50:00.001-05:00

First of all, let me lead off by noting that I haven't been posting for a week. I got kind of burned out from thinking about the Phillies last week and I needed a quick break. This week ahead prepare for a solid, five-post week on the Phillies. Sometimes I just need a quick break to get re-inspired.

Well, the Phillies managed to escape the month of April with a winning record for the first time since they went 16-12 in April, 2003. Their 15-13 record won't make Mets and Braves fans weep, but it is - combined with yesterday's 3-2 win over the Padres - enough to give the Phillies sole possession for first place in the N.L. East this morning, a half-game better than the Mets and Florida Marlins. The Braves sit three back at 12-15.

Last April the Phillies really survived a major crisis when they got off to the 4-11 start and saw the team come close to imploding: they lost their closer, suffered catastrophic injuries and their manager had a major meltdown. This April has been another crisis averted: Brad Lidge went down before the season started, the Phillies saw the 2007 N.L. MVP miss nearly the entire month with injuries, and starting center fielder Shane Victorino missed time too. Still, the team has survived and found itself sitting in first place, displaying real grit and determination.

What of the mighty Mets? Well, Jose Reyes is struggling badly with a .307 OBP and three caught stealings in nine tries. Carlos Delgado has an OPS of .620. On the pitching side, while Johan Santana has been as good as advertised - although his Fielding Independent ERA is 4.00, partly a product of the surprisingly high number of home runs he's allowed this season - the rest of the Mets pitchers are struggling badly. Oliver Perez and John Maine have allowed nearly as many walks as strikeouts and Pedro has made just one start. Looks like the Phillies are still the team to beat.

Keep an eye on the Braves, despite their sub-.500 record. John Smoltz and Tom Glavine have ERAs below 3.00 (2.00 for Smoltz and 2.60 for Glavine) and Tim Hudson is pitching well. As soon as Chuck James (7.62 ERA) works out his issues and the Braves get a little more solid at the plate, they'll start winning and outdistance the Mets. The key, I think, for the Braves is Mark Teixeira. The Braves need him to step up his performance and get more extra-base hits. Once Teixeira begins to produce, the Braves will finally have an offense to match their pitching staff.

The return of Shane Victorino to the Phillies lineup is welcome. As a team the Phillies are really struggling to steal bases and hit triples. At the moment they've stolen just 12 bases in 17 tries and they've hit just three triples. Once J.Roll returns and Victorino gets his groove on, the Phillies will finally have the speed to challenge the opposition. They've already hit an astonishing 42 home runs, but they cannot continue to rely on the long ball exclusively to score runs. One of the keys to the Phillies success in 2007 was that they were ruthlessly efficient in stretching the defense with a lot of successful steals and triples.

Here is a scary thought, Mets and Braves fans: the Phillies success in hitting home runs is partly because Chase Utley (11) and Pat Burrell (8) are on a major tear. Ryan Howard has hit just 6 this season, a low total. Once Howard begins hitting home runs the Phillies could have three 40+ home run guys on their roster. Yikes.

Giants vs. Phillies. The Phillies continue the second half of their six game homestand against N.L. West teams with a three game series against the San Francisco Giants. This will be the first time the Phillies have faced off with former Phillie center fielder Aaron Rowand. The 13-16 Giants are playing well in Year One of A.B. (After Barry.) These are going to be some rough years for Giants fans. They have an old team built around the idea of making a last run on the World Series for Bonds and nearly zero talent in their farm system. Right now they are riding their pitching staff and they are lucky to have some real talent there. Sunday is going to feature a terrific pitching duel between Cole Hamels (3-3, 2.70 ERA) and Tim Lincecum (4-1, 1.73 ERA). Lincecum and Matt Cain (Brett Myers foe Saturday night) are very good hurlers and will help keep the Giants competitive while they rebuild.

Offensively the Giants have moved far, far away from Barryball. They've hit just 16 home runs, but they've stole 33 bases so far. Interestingly, their top base-stealer has just six, so they really run a balanced speed game. As for Rowand: he's hitting .326 but his OBP is only .366. He's also hit just 2 home runs and 14 RBI. His production is going to fall off as the season progresses and he gets less and less lucky in putting the ball into play. The Phillies may miss his intensity, but they won't miss his bat. At all.

Minors Update. The Lehigh Valley IronPigs, the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, is off to a 3-24 start - yes you read that right: three wins and twenty-four losses - in International League play. As a team the IronPigs are dead-last in the IL in OPS (at .573 they are over one hundred points worse than the next-worst team, the Columbus Clippers) and in ERA. Travis Blackley is 0-3 with a 6.64 ERA and Jason Durbin is 0-5 with a 9.61 ERA. The IronPigs big power slugger, Brennan King, is hitting .204 with just one home run and five RBIs.

The Phillies two hot prospects at Lehigh Valley, Jason Jamarillo and J.A. Happ, are on different tracks. J.A. Happ is 0-3, but has actually pitched well: he has an ERA of 3.51 and has struck out 37 hitters in 33 and one-thirds of an inning. Happ has largely been done in by the fact that the IronPigs are awful. Happ might still earn a call-up with the Phillies if Kendrick struggles.

The highly touted Jason Jamarillo has some issues: .193 Batting Average, 2 Home Runs, 3 RBI. I'd say that Chris Coste's job as the backup catcher is very safe.

Over in Berks County, the Reading Phillies are 13-12 and sit three games out of first place in the Eastern League's Southern Division. Outfielder Gregory Golson is off to a terrific start: .320 batting average, 6 doubles, 2 triples, 2 home runs and 15 RBI and eight steals in eleven tries in twenty-five games. Jeremy Slayden, the powerful outfielder who I think is vastly under-rated by scouts and pundits, is hitting .310 with three home runs, twenty RBI and seven doubles.

In Clearwater the Threshers are 9-17 and sit in the Florida State League's Western division's cellar. Prospects Adrian Cardenas and Joe Savery are doing well: Savery has a 2.92 ERA and Cardenas is hitting .347. Finally, over at the Jersey Shore, the Lakewood Blue Claws are 13-13.

Monday, more!

Pirates 5, Phillies 1 - Two Out of Three Ain't Bad ...

2008-04-28T09:11:00.002-05:00

I've lived in the Pittsburgh region for the better part of thirteen years now. I first came to the 'Burgh back in 1995 to attend the University of Pittsburgh and, despite brief absences to live in Washington D.C. and with my parents in the Philadelphia suburbs, I've lived here since. I've never forgotten my allegiance as a Philly sports fan - a fact that oftentimes causes me to stick out in Western Pennsylvania, where allegiance to the Steelers ranks right up there with god, the American flag and, in lieu of apple pie, the Primanti Brothers Cheesesteak. My wife, patient spouse that she is, tries to indulge me by helping me see my favored sports teams whenever possible. Catching the Phillies when they play the Pirates is typically in the cards for us. Baseball tickets are pretty reasonable, when compared with football and hockey tickets, though I do suffer through one odd historical fact that I've noticed. Whenever we go to see the Phillies and Pirates play typically two things happen:

1. It rains.
2. The Phillies lose.

Case-in-point: the last Phillies - Pirates game I attended was Sunday, August 19, 2007, at PNC Park. After leading the game 4-0 going into the bottom of the seventh inning, the Pirates reeled off seven runs in the bottom of seventh on their way to a 8-4 win. The game took several hours to complete as we sat through several rain delays. A loss and rain.

So last week, for my birthday, my wife handed me two tickets to the Phillies and Pirates. Brett Myers vs. Paul Maholm. The tickets were great: Section 29, right along the third base line.

Rain? Defeat? Would we be greeted by either yesterday?

12:30 PM – My wife and I step onto the light rail train that connects Pittsburgh’s South Hills suburbs with Downtown. Our train is jammed with Pittsburgh Penguins fans on their way to watch the Penguins down the New York Rangers in Game Two of their conference semifinal series 2-0. After an uncomfortable ride we exit at Wood Street Station and head towards PNC Park. It is a glorious day in Pittsburgh: temperatures in the high-70s, bright sunshine. Not believing my luck, I slathered sunscreen on my face before we left. So no rain this time.

1:05 PM – My wife & I arrive at PNC Park. Sadly I’ve never been to Citizens Bank Ballpark, but I’ve been to a dozen or so games at PNC since it opened in April of 2001. The ballpark is pretty nice – instead of the concrete bowl that typified stadium construction in the 1970’s (see, Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia, Three Rivers Stadium in Pittsburgh, and Riverfront Stadium in Cincinnati), PNC is one of the numerous stadiums that correctly chose to utilize an open design to give fans a view of the downtown city area as well as of the Allegheny River. On a hot summer day, when you get tired of watching the Pirates lose, you can turn your attention to watching the boats glide by on the river. My wife & I cross the Roberto Clemente Bridge and enter PNC by the centerfield entrance. Stopping outside the bullpen area, I snap a few pictures of Carlos Ruiz catching Brett Myers before the game. I take the opportunity to don my Pat Burrell jersey. Wearing the opposition’s jersey in a passionate sports town is inadvisable typically – woe be the fool who wears an Eagles jersey to the Steelers game at Heinz Field – but with Pittsburgh’s apathy towards the Pirates in its sixteenth year, I figure I can get away with it. In any case there are legions of people standing around wearing Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels jerseys. We cross underneath the bleachers in leftfield and take our seats in Section 29, along the third base line.

1st Inning – After a 1-2-3 Phillies first, the Pirates Nate McLouth smacks a leadoff home run to rightfield over the head of So Taguchi. Half of my sections stands and applauds while the other half, wearing Phillies jerseys and t-shirts, sits on its hands. Pirates 1, Phillies 0.

2nd Inning – Pat Burrell draws a walk. Forget the 400 foot home runs, this is the play that excites me. Burrell is my favorite player because Phillies fans just don't appreciate what he does. Watching the patient, savvy Burrell work the count off the Pirates Paul Maholm is great stuff. It’s a pity that Burrell never became the next Mike Schmidt and struggled to put up decent numbers in ’03 and ’04. Since he regained his form in ’04, Burrell has been a terrific player. How many other players in baseball hit 30 Home Runs, 95-100 RBI, and have OBPs near .400? Naturally Pedro Feliz grounds into the inning-ending double play. On the other half of the inning Myers gets three strikeouts. Not bad. Still 1-0 Pirates.

3rd Inning – Ruiz walks with one out and the Phillies try to have Myers bunt Ruiz to second, a strategy that fails miserably when Myers bunts into the inning-ending double play. Ouch. Worryingly, I notice that the Phillies have hit into two double plays in three innings and haven’t gotten a hit. It’s not that Pirates starter Maholm is throwing a great game – in reality he’s tossed as many balls as strikes – but the Phillies hitters are grounding and popping out. It’s just not their day. Meanwhile Myers gets McLouth and Jason Bay to strike-out in the bottom half of the inning, his fifth K of the day. 1-0 Pirates.

4th Inning – Taguchi, Werth and Utley all make outs, bringing the Pirates to the plate. With two outs the struggling Adam LaRoche steps to the plate. The stadium PA blasts the fans with country music, leading me to deduce that LaRoche is a fan. After listening to the musical cues of hip-hop as each Pirate strode to the plate, LaRoche’s country is a pleasant brake. LaRoche then lines a single to the outfield out of the reach of Utley and Shortstop Eric Bruntlett. LaRoche advances to second on a wild pitch. Third baseman Jose Bautista laces a single to the outfield. Despite a nice throw from Jayson Werth, LaRoche is safe at home. Pirates 2, Phillies 0. Bautista steals second base, setting the Pirates up again to score. Pirates Shortstop Luis Rivas singles to centerfield. Again Jayson Werth charges the ball and delivers a perfect throw to the plate, just in time to gun down Bautista at home. Pirates 2-0.

5th Inning – After a pop-out by Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell doubles to give the Phillies life (see, left). Alas, Feliz, who hits a hard ball to third, cannot advance Burrell. Two outs. Then Bruntlett surprises me with a clutch hit to bring Burrell home. Pirates 2, Phillies 1. Those were the only two hits the Phillies got all day. Bruntlett is caught stealing, but the Phillies are on the board. In the Pirates half of the inning, the wheels come off Myers train. After walking Maholm, Myers serves up McLouth is second home run of the day with a weak shot to the rightfield bleachers. Pirates 4, Phillies 0. With Myers slated to hit in the top of the sixth inning, Charlie Manuel leaves Myers in to try and pitch himself out of this mess, which he does, but not after giving up a single to Bay. Still: Pirates 4, Phillies 1.

6th Inning – Hit the showers, Brett Myers. After Ruiz grounds out, Manuel sends Brad Harman to the plate to bat for him. Harman walks, but Taguchi and Werth both make outs. Myers line for the day: 5 Innings Pitched, 5 Strikeouts, 8 Hits, 1 Walk, 2 Home Runs and – most importantly – four runs allowed. In the bottom of the sixth, Rudy Seanez enters the game and promptly allows two singles by LaRoche and Bautista to put runners at first and third. The Phillies manage to turn a double play – their only of the day – on Rivas, but LaRoche scores again. Pirates 5, Phillies 1.

7th Inning – Ryan Howard walks and Pat Burrell hits a deep drive to centerfield, causing the crowd to gasp and stand up from their seats, but it is an out. Feliz is retired and the Phillies spoil another opportunity to score. The bullpen isn’t making me happy. Ryan Madson is in for Seanez and surrenders a single and a walk. After Jason Bay steals third base, there is a runner ninety feet from home plate for LaRoche, the Pirates struggling slugger. Alas, for Pirates fans, LaRoche strikes out. Still 5-1, Pirates.

8th Inning – Ruiz and Bruntlett fly out. Manuel pulls Madson for a pinch-hitter, sending Chris Coste to the plate. Coste launches a fly ball down the leftfield line that seems to be just inches to the left of the foul pole. Excitement finally builds in the air around the Phillies fans. Alas, Coste strikes out. Mighty Chris has struck out. Incidentially, it was just the second strikeout for Maholm all day. Groans from Phillies fans now coming to the realization that they are poised to have to endure a 300-mile trip on the turnpike with sunburn and a Phillies loss on their minds. Clay Condrey is in for Madson in the eighth and eventually retires the side after surrendering a lead off double to Bautista. Still, 5-1 Pirates.

9th Inning – Last chance. Taguchi lines out to third where Bautista makes a nice leaping grab. Just two outs left. Jayson Werth flies out to the warning track below the rightfield bleachers, prompting a gasp from my wife. Just one out left. Finally, Chase Utley, to a chorus of “M-V-P” chants from the Phillies section, launches a fly ball to the leftfield area. That’s it. Final Score: Pirates 5, Phillies 1. Paul Maholm gets the two-hit, one-run complete game despite allowing more walks (4) than strikeouts (2).

My wife and I gather our stuff and proceed to head towards the exit. On our way out one of the ushers pleasantly asks my wife & I if we want our photograph taken. We pause for a minute while she snaps our picture, then walk around a little to let the crowd thin out a little. (The pic of my wife & I failed to download, but on the left is a pic I snapped moments after the game went final.) I snap a picture of the Pirates fans heading over the Clemente Bridge to catch public transit in the downtown area of Pittsburgh (most Phillies fans are heading in the opposite direction to the parking lot to grab their cars. My wife and I head back to Wood Street to catch the train. With the Penguins and Rangers deep into the third period of a tight game, the train is mostly empty as we ride south to our house. As we sit down I listen to a train rider ask another rider what the score was. At being told it was a 5-1 Pirates victory there is surprise. Probably the only person not surprised is me. The Pirates always win whenever I go see them play the Phillies. No rain, but a big, fat "L" in the ledger.

Back in my house I slather Aloe Vera on my sunburned face and download the pictures from my digital camera. What a nice day. Too bad the Phillies only come over once a year. There’s always next year. Next time, I'll take a little rain.

Brewers - Phillies Musings

2008-04-24T12:59:00.000-05:00

The Phillies complete a quickie two game series with the Brewers tonight before journeying to the Three Rivers city to play the Pittsburgh Pirates. I'll be attending Sunday's game, which will hopefully not be a rain-out or rain-delay (as all Phillies - Pirates games I attend seem to be).

Last night's game with the Brewers sums up a lot of the season so far: Jimmy Rollins is out (rumor as it with a broken foot), Ryan Howard is struggling, and Chase Utley and Pat Burrell are carrying the team. Burrell hit his eighth home run and Utley hit his tenth last night. Sadly, the Phillies couldn't close the deal, losing 5-4 as Cole Hamels surrendered two runs at the bottom of the eighth inning to let the Brewers slip by with a comeback victory. Today the Brewers and Phillies play at 1:00 PM and Ryan Howard won't be in the lineup.

Phillies - Pirates Thoughts: the Pirates threaten the 1933 - 1948 Phillies place in the record books as they approach their sixteenth consecutive losing season. For those unfamiliar with Phillies history: the '33 - '48 team suffered through sixteen consecutive seasons of losing in a particularly ugly period of the team's history. The 1941 team lost 111 games, an impressive feat in an era when teams played 152 games. The '33 - '48 Phillies lost 100 or more games seven times. The '93 - '08 Pirates threaten that mark of futility this season. Since they lost the seventh game of the 1992 NLCS to the Atlanta Braves (how exactly did Sid Bream beat that throw from Barry Bonds?) the Pirates have been in a spiral of incompetence. The team periodically waivers from trying to rebuild with the farm system (a strategy undermined by the fact that the team drafts poorly) and trying to add declining veterans (see, Matt Morris) at the expense of developing players. The Pirates strategy is baffling to understand and it ought not be surprising that the team has throughly alienated its fan-base these last fifteen years.

The 2008 Pirates have some talent but they are hopelessly out-classed by the Phillies. I had proposed the Pirates as a dark-horse contender in the weak N.L. Central in my season preview but they've utterly flopped thus far this season, posting a 9-12 record thus far this season, six games behind the Cubs. The Pirates problem is that while they have a good pitching staff they are undermined by the fact that their position players cannot hit and cannot field. The Pirates currently rank thirteenth in the N.L. in OPS at .678, while the Phillies rank fourth in OPS at .802. The Pirates don't set the table much: they have an OBP of .310, compared to the Phillies .338. And when runners get on they don't close the deal: the Pirates Isolated Power at the plate is a puny .123 compared with the Phillies .203. The Pirates have hit 17 home runs to the Phillies 37. Chase Utley alone has ten home runs. Both the Phillies and Pirates hit below-average with runners in scoring position (BA/RISP):

Phillies: .240 BA/RISP
Pirates: .249 BA/RISP
N.L. Avg.: .254 BA/RISP

Although the Phillies inability to hit with runners in scoring position isn't lethal to their ability to score runs because they hit with so much power at the plate, whereas the Pirates struggles are compounded by their inability to hit home runs. While Jason Bay (.409 OBP) is hitting well, his four home runs have yielded just seven RBI, a testament to how little the Pirates do to set the table. Adam LaRoche, the Pirates first baseman, has been a disaster so far this season: .127 Batting Average, just one home run. Until LaRoche hits, the Pirates are sunk.

While I've bemoaned the Phillies lack of speed thus far this season (ten steals, two triples), the Pirates resemble some guy sitting on his couch watching TV in his underwear while eating a big bowl of fritos. They are the slowest team in the N.L., having stolen just six bases (the Astros Michael Bourn alone has thirteen) which is tied for the worst in the N.L., along with just one triple, the worst in the N.L.

The Pirates rotation, which I felt would be a strength, has been a major disappointment:

Ian Snell: 2-1, 4.45 ERA
Zack Duke: 0-1, 4.37 ERA
Paul Maholm: 1-2, 4.22 ERA
Matt Morris: 0-3, 9.15 ERA
Tom Gorzelanny: 1-2, 9.35 ERA

The Pirates team ERA is a whopping 5.66, by far the worst in the N.L. The Pirates hurlers are worst in the N.L. in terms of getting strikeouts (5.1 K/9) and have allowed far too many home runs and doubles to be hit off them. The team's .468 slugging percentage allowed is second-worst in the N.L. to the Florida Marlins. The Pirates 4.66 FIP is, again, worst in the N.L.

As you've noticed, the Pirates FIP is a full run better than their ERA, so one of the problems is that the Pirates fielders are simply abysmal: the team's .654 Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER - the percentage of balls put into play that fielders turn into outs) is the worst in the N.L. and sum up a major reason why the Pirates pitchers cannot develop: pitchers not confident that the fielders can take care of balls put into play tend to drive themselves nuts trying to strike each and every guy out. The Pirates inability to develop these position players is a major reason why their talented young pitchers have struggled.

Politics ... The eyes of America were on Pennsylvania Tuesday night. I voted in the Primary Election and I hope everyone registered as a Republican or a Democrat did the same. I was very surprised by the outcome: I truly expected to see Barak Obama close the deal and sink Hillary Clinton's Presidential campaign. Instead Hillary won a solid victory, 55%-45%. What was a major surprise to me was how poorly Obama did in the Philadelphia suburbs. He won Delaware and Chester Counties with just 55% of the vote and lost Montgomery County 51% to 49%. The fact that Obama lost Montgomery County, with its educated, white-collar voters - the very picture of the Obamacrat - is troubling for his campaign. John McCain is probably looking at swatches for the drapes in the Oval Office right now. On to North Carolina & Indiana ...

I'll have a few more musings tomorrow...

The Rematch: Rockies vs. Phillies

2008-04-22T08:17:00.000-05:00

Last night's 9-5 victory over the Rockies was sweet revenge. Too bad we couldn't move that game to last October ... Another rough start for Kyle Kendrick though: 5 IP, 5 ER, 2 K, 2 BB, 2 HR. Kendrick's style, allowing the hitters to make contact and relying on the Phillies fielders, is starting to really bite him in the a--, because now when hitters make contact they are launching home runs. He also needs to avoid issuing these walks. You can get by without getting a lot of strikeouts, but nobody can survive a 1:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, much less Kendrick's 0.72 K/BB ratio (11 walks, 8 strikeouts) ... On the plus side, the rest of the Phillies pitching staff was fine. The relief corps threw the last four innings and allowed just one hit, zero runs, and got five strikeouts.

We're roughly one-eighth of the way through the 2008 baseball season and I thought that I might comment on some things are surprising to me and perhaps to others as well. We'll start with ...

The Not-So-Improved Nats. The Nationals, supposedly new and improved with the acquisitions of Lasting Milledge, Paul Lo Duca, and Elijah Dukes and their new multi-million dollar digs in our Nation's Capitol were supposed to compete. Instead Dukes really hasn't played, Lo Duca stinks (.200 Batting Average), Milledge has been ok (.345 OBP) and superstar Ryan Zimmerman has struggled (2 home runs, 7 RBI, .244 OBP). Strike that. Struggled badly. Meanwhile Nats pitchers have been as bad as advertised, with a 4.73 ERA.

Thunder from the Desert. The 13-5 Diamondbacks are easily the best team in the National League right now and probably in baseball. Forget the Mets, the D-Backs might have bought themselves a pennant when they teamed Dan Haren (3-0, 1.80 ERA, 4 Quality Starts, 6.83 K/9) with Brandon Webb (4-0, 1.86 ERA, 4 Quality Starts, 6.84 ERA). Along with Micah Owings (3-0, 2.29 ERA, 3 Quality Starts, 8.69 K/9), the D-Backs are easily the most deadly team in the majors in pitching. Their offensive unit is playing well too: they've scored 116 runs, which puts them on pace to score 900 or so. Eric Byrnes (.908 OPS) is great, but Justin Upton (5 Home Runs, 13 RBI, 1.068 OPS) has been fantastic.

Injuries. At the moment the Phillies feature a lot of players sitting on the Disabled List. Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Chris Snelling are the notables. Snelling himself, ironically, had been recalled from Lehigh Valley to fill-in for Victorino.

Speed. Thus far in 2008, the Phillies have stolen eight of eleven bases in twenty games, a pretty lethargic total for a team that really cut-loose in 2007, stealing 138 bases in 157 attempts, a success rate of 87.9%. The 138 steals were second-best in the National League after the Mets 200. The Phillies also led the N.L. in triples with 41. Like many sabremetricians, I am distainful of the "small ball"-types that chirp about how teams have to manufacture runs with bunts and steals and the like to score runs. I am a big believer in the idea that the home run is the most efficient means of scoring runs and winning baseball games. However, I do credit the resurgence in interest in speed with playing a major factor in the Phillies 2007 campaign for the N.L. East crowd. Under the careful instruction of First Base Coach Davey Lopes, the Phillies were faster on the bases in 2007. Jimmy Rollins hit 20 triples and stole 41 bases. Victorino hit 3 triples and stole 37 bases in 41 tries. Michael Bourn hit 3 triples and stole 18 bases in 19 tries. That extra-dimension of speed played a major factor in helping the Phillies win the N.L. East.

Fast forward to 2008. In the off-season Davey Lopes was diagnosed with cancer and is currently undergoing treatment. Since undergoing surgery on March 17th he hasn't been with the team and isn't expected to return until May. The team dealt Michael Bourn to the Houston Astros as part of the Brad Lidge / Eric Bruntlett deal. As an Astro, Bourn has successfully stolen eleven of eleven bases, though his absurdly low batting average (.211) constrains his effectiveness. With Jimmy Rollins and Victorino out of the lineup with injuries, the Phillies are left without any major weapons on the bases. Thus far in 2008 they've stolen eight of eleven bases and have hit 2 triples in twenty games. At their current pace the Phillies will hit half as many triples as they hit last year and will steal just 65 bases, or roughly half what they did in 2007.

Power. Some idiot sniped at me when I did a talk-back for another blog about a prediction I had made that Chase Utley was capable of making a run at the triple crown. Apparently this guy thought I was an idiot for believing that Chase Utley could out-homer David Wright, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and the rest. Well ... I looked at the numbers this morning and Chase Utley leads the major leagues with nine home runs. He's also hitting .356 and has 18 RBI (the N.L. leader has 19) ... Pat Burrell has been great too, having hit seven home runs and nineteen RBI. Burrell's 15 walks also give him an astonishing .476 OBP to go along with all of that power ... Chris Coste has made the most of his playing time and owns the team's best OPS: 1.205. What really impresses me about Coste is that he's drawn four walks and has struckout just twice. He's really making a powerful argument that the Phillies ought to play him more and make him their #1 pinch-hitter ... The Phillies are really packing a punch this season. They've hit 33 home runs so far and their team isolated power at the plate is a robust .200 ... Isolated Power is where you eliminate singles from slugging percentage by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage ... I am only concerned that their power is going for naught as they have a pedestrian .337 OBP, which is just seventh in the N.L. As a consequence they've scored just 94 runs to the D-Backs 120.

Pitching. I'm not saying that the Phillies pitchers are as good as the D-Backs, but the team ERA os 3.61 is very, very respectable and suggests that the Phillies are making strides. The rotation is pretty predictable: Hamels (2-2, 1.86 ERA) and Myers (2-1, 3.96 ERA) are both terrific, while Kendrick (1-2, 5.59 ERA) is struggling and Adam Eaton (0-0, 4.74 ERA) and Jamie Moyer (1-1, 4.79 ERA) have both been solid. In Eaton's case, "solid" is a major improvement. What is really startling to me is how well the bullpen has done. Rudy Seanez, Brad Lidge and J.C. Romero all own ERAs of 0.00, and Chad Durbin's 0.64 ERA is right there with them. I'm pleasantly surprised.

Astros vs. Phillies: Comeback

2008-04-16T08:38:00.010-05:00

The Phillies dramatic 4-3 comeback last night against the Houston Astros last night at Citizens Bank Ballpark was one of the most stunning outcomes to a Phillies game that I've seen in a long, long time. After trailing 3-0 going into the bottom of the ninth inning, the Phillies had mustered just four hits and two walks in against Shawn Chacón and looked sunk. Enter Jose Valverde, who promptly allowed two home runs to get the game to a 3-3 tie before Pedro Feliz doubled Geoff Jenkins in to get the 4-3 win for the Phillies. The win was dramatic and thrilling and just the sort of miracle finish the Phillies need to pull out from time-to-time to win the N.L. East in 2008.

A couple of thoughts:

-Don't look now, but Adam Eaton hasn't done a bad job this season. Not good, mind you, but Eaton is clearly improved over 2007. Thus far Eaton has three no-decisions in his three starts, but his ERA is a respectable 4.12. While Eaton's K/BB ratio is pretty terrible (10 strikeouts vs. 8 walks, or 1.25 K/BB, actually worse than last year's 1.37 K/BB ratio), he's allowed just one home run in his 19 and two-thirds of an inning worked. Eaton's ERA will probably move towards the 4.50 mark as the season wears on, but he's no longer the Phillies worst pitcher.

-Pat Burrell is hot, hot, hot at the plate. Last night's two-run shot to tie the game at 3-3 was his fifth home run and fifteenth RBI of the season. His OBP is nearly .500 too. When are people going to give this poor guy his due?

-Eric Bruntlett was 1-for-2 with a walk and a stolen base, but the Phillies need to think about adding some depth in the middle infield after Jimmy Rollins gets back. The lost production from J.Roll's bat is going to hurt the Phillies sooner rather than later and the Phillies are going to need someone with the ability to hit the ball out of the infield if J.Roll or Chase Utley go down.

-Speaking of Chase Utley, thus far this season he's committed four errors after committing ten all last season. And what is up with the Phillies awful fielding?

-Bourn Watch: Bourn's OBP is just .310 ... But he makes up for making outs on the bases when he actually does get on base. So far Bourn is 7-for-7 in stolen bases, which means that he could steal 70-75 bases by the time the season is finished. Unless Bourn increases his ability to get on base he's going to be this generation's Vince Coleman, a speedy threat who never get on base enough to utilize his full potential.

Still, you have to be impressed with Bourn's production and wonder, now that Victorino and J.Roll are out of the lineup, if the Phillies might miss Bourn's abilities more than they realize.

Tonight the battered Roy Oswalt (0-3, 9.00 ERA) matches up against Kyle Kendrick (1-1, 6.14 ERA) is a battle between two pitchers who have gotten roughed up pretty badly thus far this season. Kendrick's struggles are no surprise: I think even before Spring Training I was speculating that Kendrick wasn't going to have the same success he did last season. With eight walks and one strikeout thus far this season, Kendrick is going to have to start finding his control and doing so quickly. Interesting fact: Kendrick has an ERA of 6.14 despite not surrendering a single home run this season. Oswalt, who has struck out twelve to two walks, his a 9.00 ERA because he's given up five home runs. Don't be fooled by the ERAs of Oswalt and Kendrick: this is a major mismatch in favor of the Astros. If the Phillies are going to win, they need to drive Oswalt from the mound with home runs or they'll need another miracle comeback.

No more for the week. I'm out of town for a few days. More on Monday.

Farm Report Preview: the Minors in 2008

2008-04-14T07:06:00.001-05:00

The Farm Report, a semi-regular focus on the Phillies minor league system, was born out of Cole Hamels meteroic rise through the Phillies system in 2006. Much-discussed by others, Hamels burst upon the scene in an explosion that largely took me by surprise and made me realize that I knew practically nothing about the Phillies minor-leaguers. In recent years we've seen many prospects move through the system and become productive members of the Phillies roster: Chase Utley, Chris Coste, Hamels, Carlos Ruiz, Ryan Howard, etc. The Phillies have an under-appreciate farm system that has been producing most of the team's stars. I resolved to never let another minor-league hot-shot catch me by surprise again.

With the 2008 Season under way I thought that I'd take a break from talking about the activity at Citizens Bank to focus on the Phillies four active minor league teams*.

* The Phillies actually have six established minor league teams: the four mentioned above as well as the Short-Season Single-A Williamsport Crosscutters and the Rookie League Gulf Coast League Phillies. The Crosscutters and GCL Phillies don't get their seasons started until the MLB Draft this summer because their rosters are filled out by the Draft.

We start first in beautiful Allentown, Pennsylvania ...

I. The Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Triple-A). The IronPigs begin their inaugural season as the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, the third move of the Phillies Triple-A site in the last three years. Previously the Phillies Triple-A team in the International League (IL) had been the Scranton Red Barons (now the Yankees Triple-A team), and then the Ottawa Lynx last season. The Lynx are now defunct - the final Canadian team in the fourteen-team IL - and the team moved to the Lehigh Valley area and was redubbed the "IronPigs" in honor of the Allentown-area's rich steel industry heritage.

I hope that the fans in Allentown aren't expecting a great baseball team because the 2008 IronPigs will likely struggle. The '07 Lynx finished the regular season with a 55-88 record, worst in the IL, and many of the same players return from a team that posted the highest ERA in the IL and featured the worst OPS in the IL.

Notable prospects:
Jason Jamarillo - Catcher
J.A. Happ - Pitcher

Jason Jamarillo is a player that really wasn't on my radar until he was listed on Baseball America's list of Top Ten Phillies prospects at #10. Jamarillo, a second-round pick by the Phillies in the 2004 Draft, was a 2005 South Atlantic League (SAL) All-Star with the Lakewood Blue Claws. He also also a 2007 mid-season All Star with the Lynx last season, hitting .271 (.350 OBP), with six home runs, 56 RBI and 52 Runs Scored. Jamarillo seems like a solid and dependable catcher, the sort of player who might be backing Carlos Ruiz up in 2009, or later this season if Ruiz or Chris Coste go down. What impresses me about Jamarillo is his bat control: 1.58 K/BB ratio at the plate ... J.A. Happ, who was picked in the third round of the 2004 Draft after Jamarillo, will be in his second season in Triple-A this year, having gone 4-6 with a 5.02 ERA with the Lynx in 2007. Happ's sole major league appearance was a catastrophic drubbing at the hands of the New York Mets last June at what might have been the low point in the season for the Phillies. The experience seemed to kill Happ for 2007, as he had swiftly risen through the ranks of the Phillies minor league system in 2005 and 2006, posting a 2.81 ERA with a 4.05 K/BB ratio with the Clearwater Threshers and a 2.64 ERA with a 2.79 K/BB ratio with the Reading Phillies. Can Happ regain his form with the IronPigs? He's the most likely minor league candidate to make the Phillies rotation and contribute in any meaningful way this season ... After that the IronPigs roster looks a little thin of talent. Never fear, people of Allentown, because future members of the IronPigs include ...

II. Reading Phillies (Double-A). If you live in the Reading metro area my advice to you right now is to go down to the Reading Phillies stadium and buy yourself some tickets. A lot of tickets. A slew of future major leaguers will be playing in beautiful Berks County, Pennsylvania, and you shouldn't miss out on seeing the stars of tomorrow ... Today.

Notable prospects:
Carlos Carrasco - Pitcher
Joshua Outman - Pitcher
Andrew Carpenter - Pitcher
Greg Golson - Outfield
Jeremy Slayden - Outfield
Jason Donald - Infield
Lou Marson - Catcher

Carlos Carrasco is the consensus pick by the experts as the Phillies top propect and Outman is right behind. Don't be surprised to see both occupying the #3 and #4 slots in the Phillies rotation as early as Opening Day 2009. Donald is a terrific prospect to occupy shortstop or second base in the event that Jimmy Rollins or Chase Utley go down and Slayden is a major talent flying under the radar of most people. Let's start with Carlos Carrasco ... Carrasco is the consensus pick as the gem of the Phillies farm system these days. Baseball Prospectus (click here for Baseball Prospectus' article on the Phillies top prospects), Baseball America (click here for Baseball America's write-up on the Phillies) and Top Prospect Alert (click here for Top Prospect Alert's article on the Phillies prospects) all rank Carrasco #1 in the Phillies system, and Keith Law of ESPN made Carrasco the only Phillie prospect on his list of the Top 100 Prospects in the minor leagues right now. Carrasco was spectacular in 2006 along with Outman and Matthew Maloney, as the trio smashed the opposition on their way to a 2006 SAL title. Carrasco went 12-6 with a 2.26 ERA and 159 strikeouts in 159 innings in 2006. Carrasco advanced into Advanced Single-A with the Threshers early last season and dominated again, going 6-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 53 strikeouts in 69 innings. Carrasco struggled in Double-A with the Reading Phillies, going 6-4, but seeing his ERA spike two runs to 4.86. His formitable K/BB ratio dropped:

K/BB ratio:
Single-A ('06): 2.45
Advanced-A ('07): 2.41
Double-A ('07): 1.06

as long as possible, so don't expect to see him in Philadelphia with Brett Myers and Cole Carrasco needs to work on his control more and expect him to go back to those terrifyingly good numbers he posted in Single-A and Advanced-A ball soon. The Phillies want to protect CarrascoHamels until 2009 at the earliest. It seems likely that he'll spend most of 2008 in Reading before getting the call to go to Allentown until later in the season ... Vastly underrated is Josh Outman, a talented pitcher who was Carrasco and Maloney's teammate in Lakewood in 2006, where he went 14=6 with a 2.95 ERA. Outman joined Carrasco in Clearwater and was every bit as impressive, going 10-4 with a 2.45 ERA. Impressively, Outman struck-out 117 batters in 117 innings of work. Like Carrasco, Outman joined the Reading Phillies and struggled a little, going 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA. In many respects though, Outman out-pitched Carrasco in Reading: his K/BB ratio was 1.47. Despite his obvious talent and proven track record, Outman has largely flown under the radar of most observers, ranking fourth in Baseball America's, Baseball Prospectus' and Top Prospect Alert's looks at the Phillies farm system ... Andrew Carpenter is the third pitcher in the Reading Phillies rotation and he ought not to be ignored. Carpenter, who ranks ninth on Baseball America's list of Phillies prospects, went 17-6 with a 3.20 ERA in 2007 with the Threshers. Durable, tough, Carpenter got stronger as the '07 season wore on, going 10-2 with a 2.05 ERA after the Florida State League mid-season All Star Game. Not quite the strikeout pitcher Outman or Carrasco are, Carpenter is a solid pitcher who doesn't allow many walks (2.93 BB/9) ... Gregory Golson first selection in the draft out of John enters his fifth season in the minor leagues, hoping to finally make the majors after battling his way from rookie ball in 2004, when he was the Phillies draft choice out of Connally High School in Texas. Golson is an extremely talented individual who might make a great major-leaguer one day, but for a massive problem with his game. Let's start with Golson's pluses. The guy is fast. In 2007 he stole 25 of 33 bases (76%) with the Clearwater Threshers and hit three triples. After joining the Reading Phillies later in the season Golson hit two more triples and stole all five bases he attempted. Golson went to Arizona to play in the Arizona Winter League and was eight-for-eight in steals with the Peoria Saguaros and hit three more triples. All of this was on the heels of a season in 2006 where he stole 30 of 40 bases and hit six triples with Lakewood and Clearwater. Golson has speed. And Golson has some power at the plate: he hit fifteen home runs in 136 games last season. Golson has power. What Gregory Golson does not struck-out 173 times in 571 minor league At-Bats and drew just 23 walks. As a consequence player-of-comparison, had a minor league have is the ability to get on base. In 2007 Golson's .273 batting average looked much less impressive when compared to his .305 OBP. In 2006 Golson K'd 160 times in 546 At Bats and walked just 30 times. His OBP was a mind-bogglingly awful .277 ... Golson's usefulness to the Phillies, beyond being an occasional pinch-hitter and defensive substitution, is rather limited. Before Golson can hope of being Michael Bourn II (who had a minor league OBP of .377) , he needs to learn how to draw walks and avoid striking out. When he does that, he'll shine ... How Jeremy Slayden has flown under the radar of the pundits - he appears on no Top Ten list for Baseball America, for Baseball Prospectus or for Top Prospect Alert - and Billy Beane and the Oakland A's, I'll never understand. The 2005 Draft choice out of Georgia Tech had a break-out season in 2007, smashing 14 home runs and 73 RBI in 118 games in the pitching-friendly Florida State League with the Threshers. Slayden's OPS+ was a robust 117. Slayden has exceptional slugging skills (.171 ISO in 2007), draws walks (60 in '07, coupled with a .376 OBP), and even occasionally steals bases and moves speedily (seven-of-eight in steals and four triples in 2007). Despite hitting so well at the plate, Slayden doesn't strikeout as much as a player like Greg Golson. Slayden might not be the best defensive outfielder in the Phillies system, but he's the classic Moneyball walks-and-home runs player. Perhaps Slayden has never appeared on the radar of Billy Beane, but he ought to. I hope Slayden, who is probably my favorite Phillies minor leaguer, makes the Phillies eventually ... Jason Donald is an interesting case. Completely ignored by Baseball America, he's #8 on Baseball Prospectus' list and #10 on Top Prospect Alert's. The 2006 draft pick out of the University of Arizona is extremely talented middle infielder and ought to have a bright future in the Phillies organization backing up Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley in 2009. Donald began his minor league career in the New York - Penn League (NYPL) with the Batavia Muckdogs (the Phillies former Short-Season Single-A franchise) and did some impressive work: .347 OBP, 12 steals in 13 tries, two triples ... He joined the Lakewood Blue Claws and found himself in the awkward position of playing the same position - shortstop - as the Phillies highly touted prospect Adrian Cardenas (see, Clearwater). The Phillies liked Donald enough they shifted Cardenas over the second base in Lakewood and let Donald play short. Donald responded with a .409 OBP and three triples (though, bizarrely, he was caught stealing five of seven times). Donald played well enough that the Phillies moved him to Clearwater to play with the Threshers. Again, Donald played well: .386 OBP and five triples. In Clearwater, where he spent most of the season, Donald actually developed something of a power stroke, posting a .191 Isolated Power (ISO) at the plate, impressive in the FSL, where the league average for ISO was .122 ... It is a little difficult to evaluate Donald's defensive skills (see, Freddy Galvis, below) but he seems to be a solid player. If Eric Bruntlett struggles as the backup middle infielder, it would not surprise me at all to see Donald in Philadelphia by the end of the season. At a minimum, he'll be a member of the IronPigs ... Finally, we come to Lou Marson, the talented catcher who is on the Reading Phillies roster. Marson caught Maloney, Outman and Carrasco in '06 when the Blue Claws obliterated the opposition on their way to the SAL title and he continued to catch them in 2007 with the Threshers. Along the way he's posted some solid stats, including a .373 OBP with Clearwater last season and an impressive .336 batting average with runners in scoring position (BA/RISP). I'd expect to see Marson on the Phillies roster in 2010 ... As you can see, there is a lot of talent currently in the Phillies system at Reading. Reading residents are lucky that so many terrific players who will be occupying important roles with the Phillies in 2009 and 2010 currently on the Reading Phillies roster right now.

III. Clearwater Threshers (Advanced Single-A). After Reading the second treasure trove of Phillies prospects sit in Clearwater. The Phillies have three terrific prospects who could have every bit as significant of an impact on the Phillies as Carrasco, Outman and Donald, although the prospects laboring under the hot Florida sun this year won't factor into the Phillies plans until 2010, at least.

Notable Prospects:
Joe Savery - Pitcher
Kyle Drabek - Pitcher
Adrian Cardenas - Infielder

We'll start with Joe Savery, the Phillies first selection in the 2007 Draft out of Rice University. The left-handed Savery went 2-3 with a 2.73 ERA with the Williamsport Crosscutters last season. Savery didn't surrender a single home run and struck-out 22 in 26 innings of work (7.5 K/9). Savery also allowed 13 walks, or 4.4 BB/9, which suggests that he's either still trying to get his control down or that he's going to be the type of pitcher who tosses a lot of pitchers because he tends to work the corners ... Kyle Drabek, the Phillies first selection in the 2006 Draft out of high school in Texas, will be hurling alongside Savery. Drabek threw well for the Lakewood Blue Claws before going down with an injury: amassing a 5-1 record with a 4.33 ERA. Drabek allowed 1.5 HR/9, 3.83 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 and had a 2:1 K/BB ratio. He had the added benefit of pitching in 2006 for the Gulf Coast League Phillies so he had some experience coming into 2007. The Phillies have high hopes for Savery and Drabek to contribute to the Phillies in 2010 and beyond or to be valuable trade bait in the event that the Phillies need to make a push for the playoffs ... The prize of the Threshers roster is Adrian Cardenas, the exceptionally talented high schooler from Florida whom the Phillies took in the supplemental round of 2006 Draft after Drabek. Cardenas, who destroyed high school pitching in Florida and accumulated awards like they were going out of style, has gotten off to a swift start in his first two seasons of minor league ball. Last season with the Blue Claws he had an OBP of .354 and hit 9 home runs and 30 doubles (.417 Slugging Percentage), along with 79 RBI and showed a lot of speed: 20 steals in 27 tries. Cardenas also posted impressive numbers in 2006 when he was drafted out of high school, stealing 13 of 16 bases in the Gulf Coast League and hitting four triples with a batting average of .318. He's a fast player who makes contact, plays terrific defense and has a little power. In terms of position players, Cardenas is clearly the prize pick in the Phillies system. Baseball America to Chase put him as the best position player in the Phillies system and second-best as a prospect to Carrasco, an opinion Baseball Prospectus and Top Prospect Alert shared. He bears a striking resemblenceUtley and will likely man a position in the outfield in 2010 or 2011 at Citizens Bank Ballpark ... After Savery, Drabek and Cardenas, the quality of the talent in Clearwater falls off a little. It is possible that while the quantity of talent isn't as deep in Clearwater, the quality might be better in the long run, as the Threshers might produce three terrific players.

IV. Lakewood Blue Claws (Single-A). Finally, we come to the Lakewood Blue Claws, who will be featuring players entering their first full season of minor league baseball in 2008. Nearly all of the players on the Blue Claws roster will be 2007 Draft choices who cut their teeth in Clearwater and Williamsport last season after they were drafted.

Notable Prospects:
Dominic Brown - Outfield
Travis Mattair - Third Base
Karl Bolt - First Base
Tyler Mach - Second Base
Freddy Galvis - Shortstop

Dominic Brown usually graduate to Single-A ball, not Short-Season Single-A in their second year) and played very well, stealing 14 of 21 bases and hitting five triples. Brown seems to have a lot of speed and a knack for getting on base, as he hit .295 in 2007 (.356 makes a nice starting point for our analysis of the Blue Claws roster. The 2006 Draft pick played in Williamsport last season (why, I am unsure, as Rookie LeaguersOBP) and managed to score 43 runs with a team that really struggled at the plate. Brown is the only prospect on the Blue Claws roster to earn much recognition from the pundits, ranking #6 on Baseball America's list, the second-best position player after Cardenas. Many have compared him to Darryl Strawberry ... The shame of it is that there is plenty of other talent on the Blue Claws. Freddy Galvis, the talented shortstop, deserves mention here as perhaps the finest defensive player in the Phillies system. Galvis can't hit - an abysmal .255 OBP in 2007 with the Crosscutters - but he can field and has won praise for his terrific fielding, being called the Phillies best defensive infielder by Baseball America. In a pre-season interview with the Daily News' Bill Conlon, Phillies minor league director Steve Noworyta stated that if the Phillies had to find a replacement in 2008 for Jimmy Rollins and if defense were the primary consideration, Galvis would be promoted to Philly over the other infield prospects in their system, quite a statement ... Karl Bolt, a 2007 draft pick out of the U.S. Air Force Academy, is another Jeremy Slayden-type who has flown under the radar of the scouts and pundits. Bolt was astonishing with the Gulf Coast League Phillies, hitting eight home runs and 31 RBI in 57 games. Bolt's Isolated Power (ISO) at the plate was a terrific .203. Bolt's OPS+ was 115, an impressive total in the weak-hitting GCL ... Another Blue Claw I am very impressed by is Tyler Mach, their new second baseman, who had a .362 OBP in the NYPL last season and hit five home runs and 38 RBI in 65 games. What really impresses me is that Mach drew 21 walks against 33 strikeouts, despite being a power-oriented hitter ... And finally, Travis Mattair, who struggled a little in the GCL last season (.297 OBP) but has great promise, and might be a worthy heir to Mike Schmidt as a Phillies Third Baseman ...

Conclusions: The Phillies systems don't really rate much notice from the pundits the way the Angels and their focus on high school players and the A's and their much derided fixation on college players occupy the attention of the punditry around Draft time. It is hard to argue with the development of players that the Phillies have made from within their system: Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Victorino, Ruiz, Utley, Myers ... These are all homegrown players, homegrown talent that honed their skills in Scranton and Reading and Clearwater on their way to Philadelphia. I doubt anyone beyond Happ or Jamarillo will make much of an impact from the farm system in 2008, but starting in 2009 and 2010, there will be an influx of talented players arriving in Philadelphia. Imagine a Phillies roster with Adrian Cardenas hitting behind Utley, J.Roll and Howard. Imagine Greg Golson stealing bases. Imagine Hamels and Myers getting teamed up with Outman and Carrasco in the rotation. The groundwork has been laid for a team that might not be merely good, but great in 2010. We shall see, but the future is bright, says I.

The interesting thing looking at the Phillies system is where the talent is distributed. The team's phobia about pitching, born out of four long seasons of watching home runs sail out of Citizens bank Ballpark, was to respond by devoting tremendous resources to getting pitching. Right there in the upper three levels of the Phillies system is a glut of pitching: Carrasco, Outman, Carpenter, Drabek, Savery, Happ. The team's realization that they needed to restock the position players within the system led to the Drafting of Donald and Cardenas in '06 but a real focus on position players in '07, when Mach, Galvis, and Mattair were taken.

So that's the farm report. We'll revisit this in a few weeks. Tomorrow I'll recap the Cubs & Phillies and give some thoughts on the week ahead.

Welcome Home: Cubs vs. Phillies Preview

2008-04-11T14:18:00.000-05:00

The Phillies return home from their seven games in Cincinnati and Queens to start a nine game homestand at Citizens Bank tonight. First up, Phillies vs. Cubs.

Exactly 100 years ago the Chicago Cubs won their last World Series, defeating the Detroit Tigers four games to one in the 1908 World Series. The victory was part of an impressive era for the Cubs, who won 530 of 766 games (.692) between 1906 and 1910. Between those seasons the Cubs dominated the National League, winning four pennants and two World Series in five seasons. The 1906 team won 116 games - a mark tied by the '01 Seattle Mariners - and lost just 36. Their .762 winning percentage is something that will never be equaled in baseball again. With Joe Tinker manning shortstop, Johnny Evers at second base and Frank Chance at first (Tinker to Evers to Chance), the dead-ball era Cubs were a powerhouse.

In the years subsequent the Cubs failed to find any kind of sustained success, losing World Series in 1929, 1932, 1935 and 1938. The '29 team blew an 8-0 lead in Game Four of the World Series, allowing the then-Philadelphia Athletics to score ten runs in the bottom of the eighth inning to win 10-8 and take a dominating 3-1 advantage in the series.

In 1945 the Cubs lost the World Series in seven games to the Tigers, their seventh consecutive defeat in the World Series. Since then, the Cubs haven't been back. Between 1946 and 1983 the Cubs didn't even make the playoffs, consistently finishing with losing records despite featuring terrific players like Ernie Banks or Ron Santo. The '69 season actually inspired hope amongst Cubs fans as the Cubs actually sat in first place for nearly the entire season before dropping 11 of 12 games between Sept. 3 and Sept. 15 and see their 5 game lead over the Mets suddenly turn into a 4.5 game deficit.

In 1984 the Cubs punished their fans for believing in them by blowing a 2-0 lead in the best-of-five NLCS to the San Diego Padres. After brief post-season appearances in 1989 and 1998, the Cubs once more punished their fans with a spectacular collapse in the NLCS as the Cubs gave up eight runs in the eighth inning of Game Six to the Marlins (shades of 1929) and watched as a three games-to-one advantage turned into a defeat.

The '07 Cubs were swiftly swept by the Diamondbacks in the NLDS, ending the Cubs 99th year of disappointment. In the years since the Cubs last World Series victory ... the Titanic sank (1912), World War I started (1914), and ended (1919), the Stock Market fell apart (1929), World War II started (1939), Pearl Harbor was attacked (1941), World War II ended (1945), the Brooklyn Dodgers won the World Series (1955), America put a man on the Moon (1969), Richard Nixon resigned the Presidency (1974), and the movie Titanic made millions for James Cameron (1997-1998). Yes, it has been an eventful century.

That was then, this is now ... The 2008 Chicago Cubs are eager to erase the stain of the past. The Red Sox managed to undo 86 years of history in 2004, so the Cubs are definitely due.

Phillies Hitting vs. Cubs Pitching. The Phillies enter this series with a lot of hot bats in the lineup. Pat Burrell is off to a hot start with a whopping .513 On-Base Percentage and three home runs and nine RBI in ten games. Burrell has also hit three doubles. Right behind him, making his argument to be considered in the MVP race is Chase Utley who has a .447 OBP and also has three home runs to go with four doubles and eight RBI.

The Phillies problems are at the top of the lineup. If Jimmy Rollins continues to sit out of the lineup, as he did for the final two games of the Mets series, then the Phillies have serious problems. Shane Victorino is off to a slow start with a .233 OBP and just two runs scored. He's also stolen just a single base and was caught once. Eric Bruntlett, J.Roll's replacement, is making a terrific argument for the Phillies to promote Jason Donald from Double-A Reading to play short. Thus far, in addition to making two costly errors on Wednesday night, Bruntlett has an OBP of .231. In order for Burrell, Utley, Pedro Feliz and Ryan Howard to have RBI opportunities, then Victorino and Bruntlett are going to have to produce, or the Phillies will have a dangerously unbalanced lineup.

Meanwhile the Cubs send Jason Marquis (6.75 ERA) to the mound tonight, followed by Carlos Zambrano (1.32 ERA) and Ted Lilly (9.72 ERA). Zambrano is off to a terrific start, with 12 strikeouts to 1 walk in thirteen and two-thirds of an inning. Zambrano has thirteen Pitching Runs Created, exactly eleven more than Lilly and Marquis combined. It will be interesting if the Phillies can get to Zambrano on Saturday.

Here is an X-factor for this series: last season with Jason Kendall behind the plate teams stole bases on the Cubs again and again and again. This season the Cubs have turned to Geovany Soto and Henry Blanco to man the backstop. The question is whether or not Soto and Blanco can stop potential base-stealers. The Phillies have terrific ones in Victorino (37 of 41 steals last season) and (if he's healthy) Rollins (41 of 47 steals). If Rollins and Victorino get on base and successfully test the Cubs catchers arms, then the Phillies will win.

Cubs Hitting vs. Phillies Pitching. The Phillies send Brett Myers, Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer to the mound this weekend. Myers, the team's Opening Day starter, has struggled in his first two starts of the season, going just five innings in both starts and allowing seven earned runs for an ERA of 6.30. After being returned to the rotation after functioning as the team's closer in 2007, Myers is eager to prove himself. Traditionally Myers has pitched the Cubs well: the last three seasons he was 3-2, with a 2.52 ERA and two complete games in his four starts against them. He'll have the edge on Marquis tonight.

Cole Hamels is off to a terrific start in 2008, splitting his first two decisions with an ERA of 1.20. Hamels was actually better in his defeat than he was in his victory, going eight innings and allowing a single run. The matchup Saturday with Zambrano will be spectacular, a real pitchers duel between two hurlers at the top of their respective games.

Sunday the Phillies send Jamie Moyer, who used to pitch with the Cubs back in 1571 (just kidding: 1986 - 1988) to the mound to fight Ted Lilly. I give the edge to Moyer, the soft-tossing lefty who will frustrate Cubs hitters all day long.

The Cubs have some real weapons in their lineup: Kosuke Fukudome is off to a terrific start, with a .526 OBP. Fukudome helps the Cubs correct a major issue their team last season had: nobody setting the table for Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez. After Fukudome the Cubs have no major OBP threats right now. Centerfielder Felix Pie has an OBP of .238 and Shortstop Ryan Theroit has an OBP of .281. These crummy performances are ruining the Cubs powerful bats. Tellingly, Derrek Lee has just four RBI despite having three home runs. If the Cubs want to wipe the last 100 years off the scope, they'll have to do better than that.

Click here for the Q & A session I did with GoatRiders of the Apocalypse.

Tonight: Myers vs. Marquis.

Cubs Q & A and Phillies - Mets thoughts ...

2008-04-11T06:10:00.000-05:00

I was actually somewhat pleased by certain things in last night's 12-inning 4-3 loss to the Mets. I continue to fret over Jimmy Rollins absence from the lineup and the play of Eric Bruntlett (0-for-6 last night), but while it sucks to lose to the Mets, at least there is some silver lining: Adam Eaton pitched ... ok. Not great, but 3 runs in 6 innings isn't bad and Eaton got 5 strikeouts and allowed just 2 walks. It was a surprisingly ok performance.

And the bullpen, with the usual exception of Tom Gordon, pitched well. Until Gordon entered the game they tossed four innings of shut-out baseball. Not too bad.

So that closes the book on the Phillies and Mets. While the Mets may have won 2 of 3, the war for the NL East rages on. Now the Phillies get to return home to match up against the Chicago Cubs, those lovable losers from the North Side of Chicago in search of their first World Series title in 100 years.

Know they enemy ... I had a great Q & A session with Byron Clarke of Goat Riders of the Apocalypse which he will be posting on his blog and then answered some questions of my own about the Cubs. Here they are:

"1. Is Kosuke Fukudome for real?"

Well, he's not a figment of our imagination, but is he .419/.526/.613 for real? Probably not. Interestingly enough, that's the first question most people want to know about the Cubs. In a fit of excitement after the first week, I told Bucs Dugout I expected a .310/.390/.600 line with 40 doubles, 20 homers, 15 steals, and 15 outfield assists. They pointed out the .600 was a tough sell with those power numbers, so maybe it will be a .500 power average, but yeah, I think he's pretty much for real. Whatever the case, he's the most dangerous bat in the lineup as of today.

"2. 2008 is the 100th Anniversary of the Cubs last World Series triumph . The Red Sox have exercised their demons. Will this be The Year for the Cubs?"

Not unless we acquire a front-line pitcher. The Cubs missed out on the World Series when Johan Santana went to the Mets. Our problem remains the same as last year. Carlos Zambrano matches up okay against other aces, Ted Lilly's not as good as the other #2s, and we have another half dozen #5 starters. Now, if Ryan Dempster keeps throwing as well as he did last night, 7 ip, 1 hit, 2 BB, 0 runs, then we might be good to go, but I put the likelihood of that up there with Fooky maintaining his current numbers.

"3. Kerry Wood: What Went Wrong? Could it still go right?"

He got injured. There are lots of things to blame it on, and everyone has their favorite. Some blame it on the two complete games he threw in a doubleheader at the Texas State High School baseball championships, some blame it on the onerous work load in 1998, still others blame Dusty Baker's taxing 2003 demands. Whatever the case may be, Woody can't stay healthy. If he ever does, and he seems to have a good chance to do so pitching out of the pen, then things could still go very right for Kid-K.

So far this year, he's having trouble adjusting to the end of the game. He's had three saves in four chances, but he surrendered a run in his other appearance, so essentially he's three for five in keeping the opponents scoreless. The good thing for Woody is that he has a tremendous pool of good-will stored up in Chicago. I was just telling my friend this morning that if Dempster was still the closer and had gotten off to the start Wood has, well there'd be some nasty columns in the papers. At this point, everyone's still giving Wood the benefit of the doubt.

"4. Who's is the Cubs MVP? (And why?)"

In his two outings, Carlos Zambrano has been masterful. In previous years, he's had very rough starts. Last year, after 5 starts, he was 1-1 with a 6.91 ERA and we were speculating that he was hiding an injury. If he avoids his horrid April and pitches like he does in the summer months, he could very likely be a top candidate for the Cy Young award.

To this point, Fukudome has been the MVP, but D-Lee, Aramis, and Soriano will all end up with better offensive numbers. But the player the Cubs need the most is Carlos.

"5. Is Lou Pinella the right guy to lead the Cubs?"

I think so. After one year, Dusty Baker was a god in Chicago, so things can change, but Lou's got a Chicago personality where Dude Dusty never did. The best thing about Piniella is he puts winning over ideology. Dusty had these notions about how winning baseball was played, and he wouldn't deviate even when we were tail-spinning into last place, or the personnel just didn't make sense. (See Lawsuit: Centerfielders hit leadoff, second basemen hit in the two-hole causing OBP blackholes Corey Patterson and Neifi Perez to hit in front of MVP-Caliber-Derrek Lee 500 times in 2005 v. Cubdom hates Dusty.)

Lou on the other hand has tried multiple times to move Soriano out of the lead-off slot, but has relented when the results don't work out. Anyhow, like all managers, Lou will continue to be loved in Chicago so long as he wins, and when he doesn't... well they fired Ditka once.

"Bonus Q: What makes the identity of being a Cubs fan so special?"

Constant re-affirmation by the people selling us things. Yes, I know it's a jaded viewpoint, but I attend the Cubs convention each January, and the line most likely to get great applause is the one where cubs fans are called "the best fans in the world" by the guys who just charged us $50 a pop to pack into a convention center. We just can't get enough of it.

In a less jaded moment, I would answer that there is a certain camaraderie that develops when a group of people are put through oppression. Cubs fans are proud to be authentic, even though that isn't a word I would use for many of us. Who joins a bandwagon for a team that hasn't won in 100 years? It's signing up for a lifetime of disappointment, but at least there's sunshine involved. So yes, Cubs fans are special... but blasphemy! so are fans of any other team that are equally as devoted, even if their teams win on occasion.

Cubs - Phillies preview later today.

Mets - Phillies: Round 2

2008-04-10T06:24:00.001-05:00

If you ever wanted a nice illustration as to what Jimmy Rollins means to the Phillies, then look no further than last night's cringe-inducing 8-2 loss to the Mets to see. Rollins, scratched from the lineup after an injury on Tuesday night, was replaced by Eric Bruntlett, a player thrown in as balance in the Brad Lidge deal. Bruntlett promptly made not one but two costly errors in the third innings, helping the Mets score six runs and effectively ending the game for the Phillies. A couple of thoughts (today is a brief post):

-Remember how concerned people were about Adam Eaton's abilities in the #5 slot of the rotation? Maybe Kyle Kendrick is cause for more concern. Check out the line on Kendrick's performance thus far this season:

vs. Mets: 2.1 IP / 7 Runs / 1 Earned Run / 4 Hits / 6 Walks / 0 Strikeouts
vs. Reds: 5.0 IP / 4 Runs / 4 Earned Runs / 8 Hits / 2 Walks / 1 Strikeout

If you are keeping tally at home, that means that Kendrick has allowed eight walks in seven and one-thirds of an inning and has just one strikeout to show for it. To be fair to Kendrick, just one of the seven runs were earned as the Mets big 6-run inning was largely a product of Bruntlett's defensive miscues, but his struggles on top of a shaky spring and the fact that he needed so much defensive help to get to his 10-4 record last season leaves me feeling pessimistic about Kendrick's chances.

Unless Kendrick can start getting some strikeouts he is going to continue to struggle and his days as a starter are numbered.

-Chad Durbin tossed three and two-thirds nice innings in relief, not allowing any runs and giving up just a single walk while striking four Mets out. He makes a compelling case to take Kendrick's spot.

-If Jimmy Rollins is out for a while and the Phillies lost confidence in Bruntlett's abilities, what will the team do? One rumor I heard was that they'll bring shortstop Freddy Galvis in from Single-A Lakewood to play short, something that I can hardly believe. Galvis might be a defensive standout, but that would be a shocker to see happen. A more definite possibility would be bringing Jason Donald, currently playing at Double-A Reading, into the fold.

-What in the heck is up with the Phillies fielding? In nine games they've made 13 errors. Chase Utley has made three, a fact that shocks me.

Tomorrow, I'll give my thoughts on tonight's Adam Eaton - John Maine duel and I'll turn my eye towards the Cubbies.

Mets - Phillies: Round 1

2008-04-09T08:49:00.000-05:00

Round One of the Phillies and Mets ended with a 5-2 victory by the Phillies yesterday afternoon in Shea Stadium. Before we cheer the results of the battle in excess of their actual significance (this is the first of nineteen games between the two teams this season), let's look at a couple of things we saw yesterday:

-Jimmy Rollins was 2-for-5 with two runs scored and an RBI. Jose Reyes was 1-for-5 with no runs scored and no RBIs or stolen bases. The performance from the Phillies and Mets leadoff hitters is a nice microcosm for the game and illustrate why the Phillies still have a slight edge on the Mets, even with Santana wearing a Mets uni: with the bright lights shining, J.Roll produced and Reyes didn't.

-Nice pitching performance from Jamie Moyer, scattering seven hits or walks over six innings of work.

-The Phillies bullpen bent but didn't break. They allowed three hits and a walk but no runs in the final three innings. The Mets bullpen imploded once Perez left the game, allowing five runs, five hits and three walks over the last three innings.

-Chase Utley got hit by his third pitch this season. Careful, Chase.

-Tonight Kyle Kendrick goes for the Phillies, hopefully improving on his shaky performance against the Reds, where he got the cheapest win imaginable, throwing just five innings and surrendering four runs in the process.

Mets - Phillies, Round 2, tonight at 7:10 in Queens.

Don't Fear Santana: Phillies vs. Mets

2008-04-08T07:16:00.000-05:00

And so the Mets (2-3) and Phillies (3-4) finally get to square off, in a series that has seen a lot of hype and anticipation developing around it over the last six months. Jayson Stark wrote in the pre-season about the emerging Phillies – Mets rivalry, challenging fans “to find two teams in the N.L. that are more closely matched – and more obsessed with each other – than these two.” The genesis for the immediate bad blood in this rivalry stretches back to the 2006-2007 off-season when Jimmy Rollins boldly predicted that the Phillies were the team to beat in the N.L. East (“I think we are the team to beat – finally.”), a claim roundly rejected by the Mets, the defending N.L. East champs, and most of the New York-focused media. The rivalry largely simmered during the regular season as the Mets got off to a lead and held it over the Phillies and Braves.

Let’s rewind to September 12, 2007. The Phillies had just gotten battered by the Colorado Rockies 12-0 at Citizens Bank Ballpark. Kyle Kendrick had gotten hammered badly. Meanwhile, the Mets had squeezed out a 4-3 win over the Atlanta Braves in Queens. The Mets record stood at 83-62, seven games (7.0) better than the 76-69 Phillies with a mere seventeen games left. The Mets second consecutive division title seemed assured. They would be playing October baseball for sure and seemed a likely pick to make it to the World Series against the Red Sox.

That’s when everything changed. The next night the Phillies beat the Rockies 12-4. That weekend (September 14-16) the Mets and Phillies squared off for the final time that season. The Phillies rallied to win the first two games 3-2 and 5-3, then broke open a 5-5 tie to win Sunday’s game 10-6. It was the third series the Phillies had swept the Mets in during the season out of the five they played. It ran the Phillies record over the Mets to 12-5. The Mets lead had been cut in half, from seven games to three and a half.

The Mets continued to struggle, losing two in a row to the Nationals before taking four of their next five games. The Mets 7-6 win over the Florida Marlins on Sunday, September 23rd, seemed to righten the Mets ship. They still held a two and a half game lead over the Phillies. The Phillies had also been playing terrific baseball during this time, winning five of six against the Cardinals and Nationals only to drop two in a row. The last week was dramatic and exceptional, some of the best baseball played in a long, long time.

After dropping a 10-6 loss to the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday (the Mets had gotten clobbered 13-4 by the Nationals the previous day when the Phillies were idle, cutting the Mets lead to a mere two games), the Phillies beat the Braves 5-2 and 6-4. Meanwhile the Mets were spiraling out of control: they lost to the Nationals 10-9 on Tuesday, then 9-6 the next day. The Mets 3-0 loss to the Cardinals on Thursday meant that the Mets and Phillies had identical records at 87-72. Friday night the Phillies beat the Nationals 6-0 before 45,084 roaring fans at Citizens Bank Ballpark while the Marlins defeated the Mets 7-4 in front of 55,298 stunned New Yorkers in Queens. The Phillies had won twelve of their previous fifteen games while the Mets had dropped eleven of fifteen. Mustering all of their strength, the Mets beat the Marlins 13-0 while the Phillies lost to the Nationals 4-2. The teams were tied 88-73. If both teams lost or if both teams won on Sunday there would be a one-game playoff.

That never happened: Tom Glavine took the mound on Sunday and promptly surrendered seven runs in the first inning on the way to a 8-1 loss to the Marlins, their twelfth loss in seventeen games. The Phillies, meanwhile, jumped out to a 3-0 lead over the Nationals on their way to a 6-1 win. It was the Phillies thirteenth win in seventeen games.

The off-season simmered once more until the Mets jumped into the Johan Santana derby and beat out the Red Sox and Yankees. Buoyed with their acquisition of Santana, the Mets suddenly felt emboldened to talk trash, leading Carlos Beltran to declare: “This year, tell Jimmy Rollins WE’RE the team to beat.”

Tonight the rivalry is renewed.

The interesting thing about this series is how the Mets and Phillies aren't putting the strongest pieces they have on the board forward. Johan Santana and Pedro Martinez won't take the mound for the Mets, Santana having pitched (and lost) Sunday, while Pedro is on the D.L. Cole Hamels and Brett Myers hurled the Phillies last two games, so both teams are going with the back ends of their rotations. As I noted above, the Phillies and Mets enter this series with losing records.

Not exactly the makings of Yankees - Red Sox, Part II.

The Mets and Phillies are sending nearly the same teams to the field tonight that met last season. The Phillies have upgraded themselves at third base, adding Pedro Feliz to replace the light-to-no hitting Wes Helms and Abraham Nunez, and ably replaced Aaron Rowand with the Jayson Werth / Geoff Jenkins platoon. There is no reason to believe that the Phillies can't equal the 892 runs they scored in 2007 this season, or even exceed it.

The Mets, meanwhile, bring David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado back along with Jose Reyes. Aside from Moises Alou, on the D.L. and replaced in the Mets lineup with ex-Phillie Endy Chavez, the Mets send substantially the same unit to the field that played last season - although the Mets did upgrade at catcher by acquiring Brian Schneider over Paul Lo Duca in what was basically a swap of catchers with the Nationals. The key to the Mets offense is the play of Jose Reyes, who might have won the 2007 N.L. MVP award had the Mets held on and won the N.L. East. In 2007 Reyes stole 78 bases, hit 12 triples and 12 home runs, scored 119 runs and had an .359 OBP. Reyes struggles down the stretch helped sink the Mets and probably elevated the candidacy of Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins, who shined while opposite number Reyes sank.

This season Reyes is off to a shaky start, hitting just .238 (.261 OBP) in five games (5-for-21) with a .283 slugging percentage (compared with a robust .421 last season). Reyes also is 0-for-1 in stolen bases. If Reyes isn't threatening the opposition the Mets offense loses its biggest gun and suddenly looks a whole lot more ordinary.

The Santana Issue. I might as well stop for a moment and talk about Johan Santana. I've gotten assailed by Mets fans more times than I can count on this score, but ... The acquisition of Santana improves the Mets, perhaps makes them 2-4 games better, but it isn't the smashing blow to the hopes of the rest of the N.L. that the Mets fans seem to think it is. Santana is a great pitcher, but great pitchers can lose 2-1 pitchers duels, and he only takes the mound once every four-to-five games. Baseball teams win, not individuals. This is what makes baseball a better sport than, say, the NBA. One man can propel an NBA team to a 25-30 game improvement, whereas baseball teams cannot rely on the impact of one player. I'll play the A-Rod card: A-Rod leaves Seattle before the '01 season and they improve by 26 games over their previous season's performance.

Comparisons: Based on last year's performances, here are now the Phillies and Mets stack up. Offensively, the Phillies have the clear edge here. They led the N.L. with 892 runs in 2007, whereas the Mets were fourth with 804 runs. The Mets did steal 200 bases last season - best in the N.L. - to the Phillies 138, but the Phillies were caught 19 times to the Mets 46. On-Base-Percentage? The Phillies led the N.L. with a .354 OBP to the Mets .342. The Phillies also led the Mets in home runs (213 to 177), doubles (326 to 294) and triples (41 to 27). The Phillies were also second in the N.L. in home runs and first in triples. Mets did hit better with runners in scoring position: .276 vs. .259 BA/RISP.

In terms of Pitching, the Mets have the clear edge. The Mets 4.26 team ERA was better than the Phillies 4.73 and they tossed twice as many shutouts as the Phillies: ten to five. The Mets also allowed fewer home runs (206 to 165) and got more strikeouts (1,134 to 1,050).

Fielding, the Mets have the edge once more, posting a superior Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER): .702 vs. .687, although the Mets had a higher Unearned Run Average (UERA): 0.39 vs. 0.33.

What is going to be the key to this series? I have a few.

Can the back end of the Mets rotation beat the Phillies? In particular, the Mets want to see a good game from #3 starter (now likely #2 starter) John Maine on Thursday night against Adam Eaton.

Will the Phillies usual Mets-killers make their appearance? Pat Burrell, who has three home runs and nine RBI in the Phillies first seven games, has a lifetime .921 OPS against the Mets with 41 home runs and 102 RBI in 134 games. If Burrell has a big series, then the Phillies will take at least two of the three games.

Putup or Shutup. Jimmy Rollins vs. Carlos Beltran. Last year J.Roll talked big but backed it up with an MVP performance. Can Beltran do the same after calling Rollins out in spring training? Last year J.Roll had a 1.057 OPS against the Mets with six home runs, 15 runs scored and 15 RBI, four doubles, two triples and eight steals in nine tries in 18 games with the Mets. If the Mets are going to beat the Phillies, Carlos Beltran needs to step up and be a leader and do something like that.

Ghosts of '07. Jose Reyes needs to shake his struggles down the stretch last season out of his head and play some baseball. More than any other player, the Mets need big things from him to beat the Phillies.

Today at 1PM, Jamie Moyer vs. Perez. Mets vs. Phillies. Battle of Armageddon, Take One.

Who is Rudy Seánez?

2008-04-07T06:18:00.000-05:00

The Rudy Seánez era here in Philadelphia got off to a start last week as the Phillies moved to bolster their bullpen by acquiring Seánez after he had been cut from the Dodgers roster. The move gives the Phillies 12 pitchers and 13 position players, as the Phillies were forced to cut Wes Helms loose to make room.

The definition of journeyman, Seánez played (deep breath) for the Indians (for whom he was a 1986 draft choice) from 1989 to 1991, the San Diego Padres in 1993, the Dodgers in 1994 and 1995, the Braves from '98 to '01, then the Padres again in '01, the Rangers in '02, the Red Sox in '03, then Royals in '04, followed by the Florida Marlins later that season, followed by a third stint with the Padres in '05 and '06, then a second tour with the Red Sox later that season, then the Dodgers again before winding up with the Phillies. Seánez joins fellow geriatric pitchers Jamie Moyer (45) and Tom Gordon (40), although he is the young pup of the group at age 39.

What has Rudy Seánez done with his career? In 2007, interestingly enough, Rudy Seánez posted career highs in batters faced (329), innings pitched (76) and games (73). Rudy Seánez managed to post some impressive numbers along the way ...

ERA: 3.79
ERA+: 121
FIP: 4.16
HR/9: 1.18
BB/9: 3.20
K/9: 8.64
K/BB ratio: 2.70

Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined with respect to pitching stats:
Earned Run Average (ERA): Runs Allowed * 9 / Innings Pitched = What a pitcher would give up if they hurled a nine-inning game.
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): (((13 * HR) + (3 * BB) – (2 * K)) / IP) + League Factor. Basically a measure of how a pitcher would have done if he had an average defense behind him.
Home Runs per 9 Innings (HR/9): (HR * 9) / IP
Walks per 9 Innings (BB/9): (BB * 9) / IP
Strikeouts per 9 Innings (K/9): (K * 9) / IP

Yes, he did this while pitching in a pitchers-friendly ballpark, but the fact remains that those are some pretty darn impressive numbers. Seanez's strikeout rate of 22% of the batters he faced is better than the N.L. average of 17%.

But all is not well with Seanez. Parusing his stats I noticed one troubling thing about his profile as a pitcher. In 2007 just 36% of the balls he allowed to be put into play were grounders, vs. 44% were flyballs. As Citizens Bank Ballpark is a far friendlier park to hitters than Dodgers Stadium (2007 Home Run Park Factor: Citizens Bank 145, Dodgers Stadium 104), this could be a real problem for him in the long-term. Will he allow a lot of home runs?

I figured that I'd take a moment to scope out the season thus far. The Phillies send Cole Hamels to the mound tonight to attempt to even up the series with the Reds at 2-2. Overall, the Phillies are 2-4 right now, not a great record, but they haven't played as badly as in Aprils past. Brett Myers struggles worry, but I'm confident that the team can righten ship. The Phillies are, after all, in a better spot than the 0-6 Detroit Tigers are right now. Hmmm ... my prediction of the A.L. Central for the Indians isn't looking quite so crazy now ... And the Mets are a mediocre 2-3 heading into the big series with the Phillies. The Mighty Johan Santana lost yesterday to John Smoltz and the Braves.

Weep for the fall of your idol, Mets fans! Mighty Santana is mortal! More on that tomorrow.

Series Preview: Reds vs. Phillies

2008-04-04T09:06:00.001-05:00

Tonight the Phillies kick off a four game series in Cincinnati with the Reds. Last night's 8-7 come-from-behind victory over the Washington Nationals helped the Phillies escape the ignominy of starting the season by being swept at home.

Yes, the Phillies are off to a slow start but this is nothing new. They started 4-11 last year and still won 89 games and the N.L. East. In 2006 they started the month of April 9-14 before reeling off nine consecutive victories and managed to run their record to 22-15 before falling back again. The Phillies haven't had a winning record in April since 2003, and they've finished the regular season with a winning record each and every year. I suppose 1-2 is an improvement over last season, when they began by being swept by the Braves at home in three games. At least they enter this series with a winning record.

I even see some positive points. The much-maligned bullpen pitched well yesterday, allowing just a run in six and one-third of an inning of work, helping the Phillies to claw back from Jamie Moyer's rough start. Game Two, the Phillies 1-0 loss to the Nationals on Wednesday was a fluke: how often does anyone lose a game where your starter goes eight innings and surrenders just one run on five hits and two walks? Hamels Game Score was a robust 72. Clearly Hamels is going to pitch well this season. And Myers will bounce back. They'll be fine ...

The Phillies foe for the next four games are the 2-1 Cincinnati Reds. The 2008 Cincinnati Reds are coming off a 72-90 campaign that saw the Reds finish in fifth place in the six team N.L. Central, 13 games behind the Chicago Cubs. It was the seventh consecutive losing season for the Reds, who haven’t been above .500 since the team’s disappointing 85-77 finish in 2000, the first year of the ill-fated Ken Griffey, Jr. Era.

2007 Season Series: the Phillies won four of six games in the season series last year. The teams first met in late April, just a few days removed from the Reds sitting in first place at 8-6. The Reds won the first game on April 20th by a score of 2-1 in ten innings after being one-hit by Jon Lieber, Antonio Alfonseca and Brett Myers for eight innings. The loss, which dropped the Phillies to 4-11 and dead-last in the N.L. East was the low ebb of the season for the team. Holding a 1-0 lead in the ninth inning, Tom Gordon entered the game and promptly surrendered a solo home run to Scott Hatteburg with two outs. In the bottom of the tenth inning Gordon loaded the bases and surrendered a game-ending single to Brandon Phillips.

The next night, however, Cole Hamels dazzled the baseball world by easily beating former Phillie Eric Milton 4-1, striking out fifteen Reds on his way to a complete game that ranked as one of the best pitching performances of 2007 according to Bill James Game Score system. The sole run scored by the Reds was a fluke Jeff Conine homer. The game might have been the turning point in the Phillies season, because the next night Freddy Garcia won his sole start as a Phillie, besting the Reds 9-3 thanks to 12 Phillies hits and 3 Reds errors. Thereafter, the Phillies improved and clawed back into contention.

The two teams didn’t meet again until late June, this time at Citizens Bank Ballpark. The slumping Reds were 29-47 and sat in sixth place (having lost 39 of 59 games since they had last met), sixteen games out of first. They had just lost eight of their previous eleven games. The Phillies, in contrast, had won 35 of the 60 games they had played since April 20 and were sitting in second-place, just two games out of first. The Phillies won the first game 11-4 despite shaky pitching from Kyle Kendrick, largely thanks to three home runs and four doubles Phillies hitters clubbed. Carlos Ruiz had four RBI as the Phillies cruised to victory. The next night the Reds got the Phillies back 9-6 after trailing 3-0 for the first six innings when the Reds offense caught fire and scored nine runs to win. The next night the Phillies won 8-7 thanks in part to Chase Utley hitting a pair of home runs. The Phillies survived a five-run outing by Adam Eaton.

Reds Key Arrivals: Francisco Cordero, Edinson Volquez, Manager Dusty Baker
Reds Key Departures: Josh Hamilton, Eric Milton, Kirk Saarloos

The 2008 Reds are trying to get back to a point where they can be competitive again and Manager Dusty Baker is going to try and shake up a team that needs some energy. The ’07 team scored and gave up a lot of runs. The Reds 783 runs was seventh in the N.L., but their 853 runs allowed was second-worst after the Florida Marlins (891).

The biggest drain on the Reds is their star player, #3, Ken Griffey, Jr. Simply put: the team has been struggling along since he joined their lineup in 2000. While the Mariners went out and won 393 games between 2000 and 2003. Griffey isn’t really to blame: he missed 418 games between 2001 and 2006, nearly three whole seasons. But the effect of a hobbled Griffey on the Reds has been terrible. They have a slower slugger who does little but hit home runs and play shoddy defense now.

The Reds 2-4 hitters (Brandon Phillips, Griffey and Adam Dunn) are as strong a collection of hitters as you’ll find in baseball:

2007 Stats:
Phillips: 30 Home Runs / 94 RBI / 26 Doubles / .331 OBP
Griffey: 30 Home Runs / 93 RBI / 24 Doubles / .372 OBP
Dunn: 40 Home Runs / 106 RBI / 27 Doubles / .386 OBP

That’s 100 Home Runs, 293 RBI, 286 Runs Scored, 77 Doubles, and 219 Walks. That’s a good deal of the Reds offense right there.

With a lot of young talent in the Reds farm system, the team is moving beyond the Griffey Era and is moving towards contending again with a younger team.

Pitching Matchups: Friday Night the Phillies send Kyle Kendrick for his first start of the season to the mound against Josh Fogg, who briefly pitched for the Colorado Rockies last season. Given how much Kendrick appeared to struggle in the pre-season, it will be interesting to see if the Reds will be able to get to him early and drive him from the mound. Saturday afternoon Brett Myers tries to rebound from his struggles on Opening Day against Aaron Harang, the Reds best pitcher. This will be the best matchup of the weekend, pitting two very good pitchers against each other. Sunday afternoon features a mismatch between Cole Hamels (whose last start at Great American Ballpark was the 15-strikeout game) and Edinson Volquez, a relatively new hurler the Reds snared from the Rangers. Then on Monday Night (yes, it is a four-game series), the Phillies send Jamie Moyer against Bronson Arroyo. In his only game against the Reds last season he went six innings and struck out eight, a season-high for him. To my knowledge, this will be the first time that Moyer has ever pitched at Great American Ballpark.

Park Factor: Great American and Citizens Bank are arguably the two most home run-oriented ballparks in baseball, which might help explain why the Phillies and Reds typically rank in the top three in home runs in the National League.

So there you have it, Reds vs. Phillies in a nutshell. See you Monday.

Book Review: The 33-Year-Old Rookie

2008-04-03T06:27:00.001-05:00

The jock bio is one of those subgenres of sports books that I usually can’t stand reading. Let’s face it: the typical athlete has a limited vocabulary and doesn’t write with much complexity. The words are simple, the prose is pedestrian and the plot is predictable. We’ve read them all before: blah blah blah, the athlete is extremely talented, does great things, yada yada yada. The problem with a biography, Bill Clinton once said, is that they are boring and self-serving. I greeted The 33-Year Old Rookie, Chris Coste’s tale of his battles to survive Independent League baseball and hook up with the Phillies in 2006, finally achieving his goal of making the major leagues, with some amount of skepticism when I picked it up. Another dull jock bio?

I found The 33-Year Old Rookie to be a pleasant surprise. The book itself has a different tone than the Dictaphone style that most jock bios are typically written in. Coste’s bubbling enthusiasm and joy for playing baseball clearly shine through. Coste has a sunny disposition throughout the book and gives the reader a vivid picture of the path his life took.

Many Phillies fans are familiar with the story, but I’ll rehash it a little here. Coste, the only son of a single mother in North Dakota, played Independent League baseball in North Dakota after Junior College and swiftly managed to catch on with the minor league systems of the Cleveland Indians, the Boston Red Sox and the Pittsburgh Pirates before joining the Phillies. Each time Coste would join a farm system, have success, but find the path to advancement thwarted by the fact that he was an Independent Leaguer and his unorthodox hitting style scared teams away. As time wore on Coste felt his dream of playing in the major leagues slipping away and he contemplated giving up or going overseas to playing Japan or Korea.

Ultimately Coste is successful and joins the Phillies after injuries sideline Sal Fasano and Mike Lieberthal in the summer of 2006. The palatable joy that flows from Coste describing the trip to Philadelphia from Scranton, the sensations of being at the ballpark for the first time, the eye-opening moment he took the field for the first time are all vividly described by Coste. No wooden prose, no dull clichés, Coste really does a nice job describing what it is like to be baseball player to the reader. Coste’s writing style is pretty good: conversational and informative, he always engages the reader and never turns this into a clunky book.

The parallel between Crash Davis the fictional character played by Kevin Costner in Bull Durham and Coste is obvious, though the two men couldn’t be further apart: Coste is a family man whose passion for making the big leagues has never left him. Costner’s Crash is single and embittered over his failure to make it back to the big leagues.

In the end I thoroughly enjoyed The 33-Year Old Rookie. This is a book that any fan of the game of baseball can pick up and enjoy.

Phillies Preview 2008: Pitching

2008-04-02T06:56:00.004-05:00

Enough with the Phillies offense. Let’s move along to the Phillies pitchers. Before I start talking any jargon, here are the stats, defined: Earned Run Average (ERA): Earned Runs (ER) Allowed * 9 / Innings Pitched (IP) = What a pitcher would give up if they hurled a nine-inning game. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): (((13 * HR) + (3 * BB) – (2 * K)) / IP) + League Factor. Basically a measure of how a pitcher would have done if he had an average defense behind him. A stat related to this is DER, or Defense Efficiency Ratio. That’s basically how often fielders converted balls put into play by the pitcher into outs. I might also talk about Defense Independent Pitching Statistic (DIPS): The more sophisticated version of FIP developed by Voros McCracken that takes into account park factors and other considerations. DIPS is the stat that revolutionized our understanding of pitching when it came out less than a decade ago. Basically DIPS stands for the proposition that pitchers cannot control the outcomes of balls they allow to be put into play, and thus, ought to be judged in a neutral manner. Finally, Home Runs per 9 Innings (HR/9): (HR * 9) / IP; Walks per 9 Innings (BB/9): (BB * 9) / IP; and Strikeouts per 9 Innings (K/9): (K * 9) / IP … Enough numbers. Back to the Phillies … The Phillies didn’t exactly light the world on fire with their pitching in 2007. The team threw just five shutouts, tied with the Pirates for second-fewest in the N.L … The worst: the Marlins with four. The best: the Padres with a whopping 20 … As a team the Phillies had an ERA of 4.73, much worse than the 4.43 league average. The Phillies FIP was slightly worse than that: 4.76, which ranks fifteenth in the N.L., worse than everyone save the Washington Nationals. The Phillies struck out 16% of the batters they faced, a little off the N.L. average of 17%, and they allowed 10% of those hitters to walk, again, a little off the N.L. average of 9%. The .451 slugging percentage the Phillies pitchers allowed was also worse than the N.L. average of .424 … I suppose that I ought to drop a few words here about the effect Citizens Bank Ballpark has on the Phillies and their pitching. A few years ago, when Citizens Bank opened, I argued pretty vigorously that it wasn’t a hitters park. After four years of data to look at, I am prepared to pretty much drop that argument. Citizens Bank’s Park Factor … hold on, a definition is in order here: “Park Factor” means you take the difference between what a team and its opponents do at home and what they do on the road, divide it and arrive at a number. 100 is neutral. Over 100 favors hitters. Under 100 favors pitchers … for 2007 was 103 for runs scored (3% easier to score a run), 145 for Home Runs (45% easier to hit a home run), and 101 for Batting Average (1% easier to get a hit). Citizens seems to compress hitting doubles (93) and triples (88). Interestingly, it might actually help pitchers in terms of generating strikeouts – 103 Park Factor – and compressing walks – 94 Park Factor – both generally things that we examine when we look at the quality of pitching. Generally speaking, however, the consensus is that a pitcher is going to have a harder go of it at Citizens than at any other ballpark in the N.L., with the possible exceptions of Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, Coors Field in Denver, and Chase Field in Phoenix because of those home runs … And indeed, allowing those massive home runs has been a problem for the Phillies over the last several years. When the team brought groundball pitcher extraordinaire Jon Lieber to the team in ’05, I thought the move was a savvy one. And then Lieber gave up 33 home runs that first season with the Phillies. Last year the Phillies allowed 1.22 home runs per nine innings (HR/9). The N.L. Average was 1.04. Getting pitchers who can take care of business is a tricky business for the Phillies and something that the team is still trying to figure out. If the Rockies unlocked the mystery of Coors Field, however, than surely so can the Phillies.

So what is the Phillies pitching staff going to look like in 2008? Here are the probable starters and relievers:

Pitching Staff:
SP – Cole Hamels
SP – Brett Myers
SP – Jamie Moyer
SP – Kyle Kendrick
SP – Adam Eaton
RP – Chad Durbin
RP – Clay Condrey
RP – Ryan Madson
RP – J.C. Romero
RP – Tom Gordon
RP – Brad Lidge

Let’s begin with the guys that take the mound at the start of a game. The Phillies starters struggled in 2007, despite a revamped rotation that featured high-priced talent like former White Sox hurler Freddy Garcia and former Padre (and former Phillies draft pick) Adam Eaton. Injuries soon forced Brett Myers, the team’s Opening Day starter to the bullpen as the new closer, while Garcia struggled before going on the Disabled List. Suddenly the Phillies deep rotation looked thin as the team was forced to bring Double-A pitcher Kyle Kendrick to the show to fill the gap in the summer last year when Jon Lieber joined Garcia on the Disabled List. The team that began the season with six starters was suddenly down to three. The patchwork rotation did seem to work as the season progressed. Still, statistically, the Phillies starters posted some terrible numbers. As a team the Phillies tied for eleventh in the N.L. in Quality Starts in ’07 … a Quality Start is a start where the Phillies pitcher goes at least six innings and allow three or fewer runs … The Phillies had 74 of those in 2007. Just three teams had fewer: the Cardinals (70), the Nationals (60), and the Marlins (49). The Phillies starters rank twelfth in the N.L. in ERA and OBP-allowed and in terms of slugging percentage allowed, they ranked fifteenth. Phillies pitchers did rank first in the N.L. in run support at 6.05, which helps to explain why the team won games despite their pitchers struggling so much. Whereas the San Diego Padres were accustomed to winning 2-1 games, the Phillies were usually locked in 7-5 shoot-outs.

The 2008 Phillies starting rotation is set with Cole Hamels and Myers occupying the #1 and #2 slots, followed closely by Jamie Moyer, Kendrick and Eaton at # 3, 4 & 5 respectively. Let’s start with Hamels … The Phillies are fortunate to have Cole Hamels, their star, their ace pitcher, who takes the mound tonight against the Nationals. Since he joined the Phillies staff in May of 2006, after a whirlwind sprint through the Phillies minor league system, Hamels has been a critical part of the team’s success. After going 9-8 with a 4.08 ERA that year, Hamels put everything together in his sophomore season and went 15-5 with a 3.39 ERA in 2007. Had Hamels not been injured and missed five or six starts, he might have figured more prominently in the Cy Young Award voting (though Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb were the clear #1 and #2 for the award last season). Hamels steadying pitching meant everything to the Phillies last season. His fifteen strikeout performance against the Reds on April 21 was not only tied for the second-best pitching performance in the N.L. in 2007 – utilizing Bill James Game Score pitching stat, which awards and detracts points for certain events – but it was a vital game in that it helped snap the Phillies out of their 4-11 start and help get them started on making up ground on the Mets. Overall, Hamels struck-out 23.8% of the batter he faced and finished third in the N.L. in terms of strikeouts per nine innings with 8.69. Not impressed yet? Don’t think Hamels will factor in the N.L. Cy Young award voting now that the mighty Johan Santana is here to grapple with defending champ Jake Peavy? Check this out: Hamels 4.12 strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) ration was better than Cy Young award winner Peavy’s 3.53 … And contrary to the image of Hamels as a fire-baller who just goes to the mound hurling 95 mph heat, Hamels threw the second-highest percentage of sliders in the N.L. last season: 34.5% … Batters hit just .200 with runners in scoring position against Hamels, second-best in the N.L. after the Braves John Smoltz. Hamels is dominating and will be an integral part of the Phillies rotation until at least 2010, or longer if the Phillies can sign him to a long-term deal … You have to admire the work Brett Myers did last season with the Phillies. The team’s Opening Day starter last season and this season, Myers said nary a peep when he was yanked from the rotation and sent to the bullpen to bolster the team’s closer situation when Tom Gordon faltered. Myers put up good numbers in the bullpen, saving 21 of 24 games for the Phillies and striking out 83 batters in just 68 and two-thirds innings of work … I thought it was kind of interesting to compare the performance Myers did with the Phillies last year with what Smoltz did with the Atlanta Braves from ’01 – ’04, when he moved from the Braves rotation to become their lights out closer (saving 154 of 168 games for the Braves). No longer having to pace himself, Smoltz fired the fastballs by hitters in the eighth and ninth innings during those years. Similarly, Myers turned up the strikeout quotient from 8.69 K/9 in ’05 to 8.59 K/9 in ’06 to 10.88 last season … Myers was an excellent starter for the Phillies in’05 (13-8, 3.72 ERA) and ’06 (12-7, 3.91 ERA), and he should return to that form in 2008. As you can see, his strikeout rates were consistently high both of those seasons, and his walk rate was a modest 2.84 and 2.86 in ’05 and ’06. The only flaw Myers has as a pitcher is the surprisingly high number of home runs he surrendered in those two seasons: 60. This is surprising to me because Myers tends to get many, many more groundballs than flyballs when balls are put into play. Amongst the Phillies pitchers he was very prone towards grounders:

2007 G/F ratio:
Geoff Geary: 1.57
Kyle Kendrick: 1.55
Jon Lieber: 1.52
Brett Myers: 1.32
Cole Hamels: 1.13
Jamie Moyer: 1.08
Adam Eaton: 1.06
Kyle Lohse: 0.95

I tend to think pitchers like Myers or ex-Phillie Jon Lieber possess the tools to be a successful pitcher for the team because groundball pitchers don’t allow home runs and give their defenses the ability to make outs. At Citizens Bank Ballpark these skills are musts … There is a lot of diversity in the baseball world, however, and I admit that the numbers don’t sway you one way or the other. Brandon Webb, who pitches in the offense-friendly confines of Chase Field (111 Home Run and Run Factor in 2007), had a groundball/flyball ratio of 3.34 in 2007, which was basically the largest ratio of any pitcher in baseball. Webb is a pretty good pitcher: second in the Cy Young Voting and a previous winner of the award. Jake Peavy has a G/F ratio of just 1.24. Then there is this really good pitcher named Johan Santana. Last season Johan Santana’s G/F was 0.92. So there is a lot of diversity in the pitching world and there is no one way to be effective … Back to Myers. I really think that Myers will pull out all of the stops and will turn in a stunning performance this season, rivaling that of Hamels. The two are a terrific one-two punch. If I had to guess what each will do this season …

Hamels: 17-9, 3.75 ERA
Myers: 16-8, 3.85 ERA

But the Phillies rotation consists of more than Hamels, Myers and hoping for an off-day. Right after them is this guy named Moyer … It’s hard not to love what Jamie Moyer does. This will be his twenty-second season in the major leagues in a career that began with the Chicago Cubs in 1986 (I was nine years old and still in elementary school) and has seen him face 15,102 batters, win 230 games, and strikeout 2,125 hitters. At age 45 Moyer is beginning what might actually be his final season in the big leagues (it is the final season in a two-year deal he signed with the Phillies after he was dealt to the team from the Seattle Mariners in 2006) as he searches for that elusive World Series ring. Moyer has lasted so long in the majors because of his pitching style: he is a soft-tossing lefty like the Boston / Milwaukee Braves Warren Spahn, or the Atlanta Braves Tom Glavine. I think a few numbers will nicely illustrate what kind of a pitcher Moyer is: last season his fastball averaged 81.1 miles per hour, which made his the slowest in the National League. Moyer threw his fastball just 37.1% of the time, the lowest percentage of fastballs of any N.L. pitcher. Moyer’s favored pitch was the changeup, which he threw 28.2% of the time, the third-highest percentage of any N.L. pitcher. Crafty 'ol Jamie Moyer … Overall, Moyer’s results weren’t great in 2007. He posted a winning record at 14-12, but his ERA was 5.01. He allowed 30 home runs, or 1.35 HR/9, and the slugging percentage against him was a whopping .483 … Moyer increased his strikeout rate last season to 133 in 199 and one-thirds innings (6.0 K/9), which was a substantial jump over what he did in his final full season with the Seattle Mariners in 2005 (4.59 K/9). Moyer’s near 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio (2.01 K/BB in 2007) is a consistent trend of his throughout his career (1.86 in ’06 with the Mariners, and 1.96 in ’05) … Consistency is a nice theme when writing about Moyer. His 18 Quality Starts lead the Phillies and was roughly the same percentage of Quality Starts per start as Cole Hamels: 55% to 57% … The Bill James Handbook projects Moyer to go 11-10 with a 4.31 ERA in 2008. I think that’s about right. The Phillies have Moyer on the roster to provide veteran leadership and playoff experience (Moyer pitched well in the Phillies Game 3 loss to the Rockies in the NLDS last season), and to eat up 180-200 innings … Kyle Kendrick, victim of Brett Myers hilarious practical joke in the preseason, is set as the Phillies #4 starter, quite a jump for a guy who was in Double-A this time last season and probably didn’t expect to make it to Philadelphia until 2009. Kendrick’s career began a little early when injuries in the rotation forced him to Philly. Once here Kendrick made the most of his opportunity, going 10-4 with a 3.87 ERA. With 13 Quality Starts in 20 Starts, his 65% QS percentage was substantially better than Cole Hamels or Jamie Moyer last season. Bravo … But beneath the exterior or Kendrick’s success are some problems. Kendrick allowed a lot of balls to be put into play in 2007. Of the 499 batters he faced last year, he allowed 409 to put the ball into play. Kendrick struck-out an absurdly low percentage of batters: 49 in 121 innings, or 3.64 K/9. To his credit he didn’t walk many either: 1.85 BB/9. The key to Kendrick’s success was that Phillies fielders did a nice job converting those balls put into play into outs: they posted a .719 DER behind Kendrick, a groundball oriented pitcher. Thankfully for Kyle, he’s got a Gold Glove winner at shortstop and a future Gold Glove winner over at second base. What if the Phillies fielders don’t do that for Kendrick next season? Pitchers who rely on fielders rather than getting strike-outs tend to be very inconsistent and often get hammered. Their numbers yo-yo from season to season because the fluctuations in the quality of their defense, not their own abilities, decide the numbers. In Kendrick’s case he was also the product of excellent run support: a whopping 7.74 per nine innings pitched. That support helped Kendrick to tie for fourth in the National League in “Cheap Wins” (Bill James stat) with four. While Kendrick’s ERA was a solid 3.87, his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA was a more robust – and Adam Eaton-like – 4.90. DIPS, a stat I trust a little more because it takes into account Park Factors, pegged Kendrick’s “real” ERA at 4.85, which was worse than what Jamie Moyer did (4.73) and much worse than Cole Hamels (3.63). My sense is that Kendrick will pitch nowhere near as well as he did last season and his ERA will hover in the 4.50 – 4.70 range. Kendrick has already struggled in the preseason, allowing 14 runs in seven and two-thirds of an inning of work (16.43 ERA). The Bill James Handbook declined to issue predictions for Kendrick based on one season of data, but I’ll make my own: 8-10, with a 4.65 ERA in 2008 … How bad was Adam Eaton in 2007? I think the raw stats alone tell the story: 10-10, 6.29 ERA, .520 slugging percentage against, 71 walks and 30 home runs allowed in 161 and two-third innings pitched (3.95 BB/9, 1.67 HR/9). His 10-10 record, which looks pretty decent - and, incidentally, Bill James credits Eaton with five of those ten wins as “Cheap Wins” - is a nice illustration why wins and losses are largely irrelevant when judging a pitcher’s abilities. Eaton got a lot of run support – 5.62 runs per nine innings pitched – and he survived that way. Eaton did pitch roughly as badly as his ERA indicates. His FIP ERA was 5.93 and his DIPS ERA was 5.69. Eaton’s problem was not like Kendrick’s in that he relies too much on his fielders – the team’s .691 DER was pretty average – but that he allowed far too many home runs and walks last year. Given that he only threw 65 innings with the Texas Rangers in 2006, I wonder if the Phillies knew what they were getting when they acquired Eaton in 2007. I think the team focused too much on Eaton’s strong 11-5, 4.27 ERA performance as a member of the San Diego Padres in ’05, failing to take into account the “Petco Park” factor … The Bill James Handbook pegs Eaton’s performance at 8-10 with a 4.89 ERA in 2008, which I think is a reasonable projection … In the event that Eaton or Kendrick struggle and the Phillies find a need to fill the gap, they will most likely turn their attention towards Chad Durbin, the former Detroit Tigers player, who is slated to begin the season in the bullpen, but seems likely to join the rotation at some juncture of the season. Durbin pitched in 36 games for the Tigers last season, starting 19 of them. Durbin’s record was a so-so 8-7 with a 4.72 ERA. Durbin failed to pry away the #5 starting job from Adam Eaton in spring training – partly because the Phillies have $21 million dollars invested in Eaton over the 2007-2009 seasons – but the job might still be his. Durbin threw 127 innings with the Tigers in 2007 and will need to improve on some areas of his game to be a viable starter in the National League. Durbin’s K/BB ratio was a less than stellar 1.35. He allowed far too many walks – 3.45 BB/9 – to be a successful pitcher. Durbin also allowed a fair number of home runs (1.48 HR/9) at Comerica Park (which had a Home Run Factor of 114 in 2007), which makes me wonder how many dingers Durbin will give up in 2008 … Durbin’s high 4.72 ERA masks a worse FIP ERA of 5.73 and a DIPS ERA of 5.48. The reason why Durbin’s ERA was “just” 4.72 last season was because the White Sox played terrific defense behind him, converting .731 of the balls he allowed to be put into play to become outs. The Bill James Handbook gives a pessimistic 4-6, 5.00 ERA assessment of Durbin might be right on the money … Moving deeper into the bullpen … I feel like I ought to cover the bullpen as a separate topic from the starting pitching because the two have very different roles. The starter typically needs to get those 6 or 7 innings in, keep the Phillies in the lead, then turn over the game in the eighth inning to the bullpen so they can clamp down on the opposition for the final two innings. That concentration on preserving leads and focusing narrowly on just an inning or two is very, very different from the mentality of the starter, who needs to pace himself and survive more challenges. The Phillies bullpen, I might add, was a major reason why the Phillies made the playoffs in 2007 … Check out the relief corps ERA and Innings Pitching in September of last year:

Innings Pitched / ERA
Romero: 15.2 / 0.00
Geary: 17.0 / 2.65
Myers: 18 / 3.00
Condrey: 12.1 / 3.65
Gordon: 16 / 3.94

Yes, you read that correctly. In fifteen and two-thirds of an innings pitched, J.C. Romero didn’t allow a single run. Zip. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Romero, Geary, Myers, Condrey and Gordon threw a combined 78 innings, or 30% of the Phillies September innings. While Jimmy Rollins was winning the MVP award, the bullpen was quietly winning the Phillies their first playoff berth in fourteen years … The Phillies primary set up options are going to be Condrey, Romero, Ryan Madson and Tom Gordon. Let’s talk about them next … Ryan Madson has been with the Phillies since he caught the eye of Phillies bloggers with his exceptional performance out of the bullpen in 2004: 9-3, 2.34 ERA. The nine Win Shares he had during his rookie season remains a career high. After that season Madson has had a somewhat uneven career with the Phillies. He struggled a little more in 2005, as his ERA rose to 4.14, as did the number of home runs allowed (0.70 in ’04 to 1.14 in ’05). However he was still a solid pitcher and his strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) went from 2.89 in ’04 to 3.16 in ’05. The Phillies elected to give Madson a chance to become a starter in 2006, but he flopped in the role. He started 17 games and finished the season with an ERA of 5.69. His home runs spiked (1.34 HR/9), the slugging percentage allowed jumped nearly ninety points to .516, and his K/BB ration dropped below 2.00 to just 1.98. Back in the bullpen, Madson was largely back to his ’04 form, going 2-2 with a 3.05 ERA. His Home Runs allowed went from 1.34 to 0.80. Madson’s K/BB ration dropped (1.87), but he still clearly pitched better in his role in the bullpen … J.C. Romero, a cast-off from the Red Sox last season, was a startlingly welcome addition to the Phillies bullpen down the stretch. In 51 games with the Phillies Romero went 1-2 with a 1.24 ERA. But just those numbers don’t even come close to giving you the full story about Romero’s extraordinary season with the Phillies in 2007. Romero faced 143 batters in a Phillies uniform and threw 597 pitches. In that time he allowed just one home run (0.25 HR/9) and a .191 slugging percentage against. Romero is one of those pitchers who throws a lot of pitches because he doesn’t want to give a batter a chance to hit anything at all. Consider this: Romero threw 4.17 pitches per batter. How does that compare with some of the rest of the Phillies?:

Pitches / Batters Faced:
Romero: 4.2
Myers: 4.1
Hamels: 3.8
Gordon: 3.8
Madson: 3.7
Eaton: 3.7
Moyer: 3.6
Kendrick: 3.5

The consequence is that of the 143 batters Romero faced, he walked 25 (19%) and struck-out 31 (22%). To give you comparison, remember that 9% of batters in the N.L. walked and 17% struck-out last season. Romero is an opposite extreme to Kendrick. Just 61% of the batters he faced put the ball into play. That is pretty remarkable. Here is another remarkable fact: of the 87 batters who put balls into play against Romero, 64% of those were groundballs. The N.L. average for groundballs is 43% … Do I expect Romero to repeat a lot of those stats again in 2007? His 0.00 September ERA is an impossibility. While he did generally pitch well in 2007, Romero’s FIP ERA was 3.98, nearly three runs (specifically, 2.75 more) than his “real” ERA. A stunning 83.3% of the balls put into play behind Romero were turned into outs. Simply put, that will not happen again. A 3.00 ERA for Romero is far more likely this season … I wonder how many other baseball teams boast two pitchers over the age of 40 on their rosters. The Phillies do with 45-year old Jamie Moyer and with 40-year old reliever Tom Gordon on the roster. Gordon, whose career began so long ago in 1988 with the Kansas City Royals, arrived in Philadelphia in 2006 to replace Billy Wagner as the team’s closer. Gordon, who had been setting up Mariano Rivera’s saves for the Yankees for the past several seasons, was a worrisome choice to replace the fire-balling Wagner. Was he up to the task? Well, Gordon actually did well in the first half of 2006, and was one of the Phillies three representatives in the All-Star Game in Pittsburgh. He saved 34 of 39 games for the Phillies with a 3-4 record and a 3.34 ERA. Gordon may not be firing 100 mph fastballs at hitters, but he was effective: 10.3 K/9, 3.09 K/BB ratio, just the sort of numbers you want from your setup man … Gordon struggled a little in 2007, seeing his ERA balloon to 4.72 and blowing five of eleven save opportunities. The closer job he lost to Brett Myers and the team brought in Brad Lidge this season to occupy the role. Gordon still will function as the Phillies set-up man, however, a nice counterpoint to the left-handed Romero. I like Gordon a lot and I think he’ll be effective, although I wonder if he might cede the set-up man role to Ryan Madson as the season wears on if he struggles. Gordon’s FIP ERA, which was 2.37 in ’04 and 3.55 in ’05 with the Yankees, remained at 3.86 in 2006, but spiked to 5.07. Fluke? Or age finally catching up to Gordon. Gordon many fewer strikeouts in 2007, but then he faced many fewer batters in ’07 than he had the year before and was battling injuries. The fifty point spike in his slugging percentage allowed might be a fluke or it might portend struggles to come. We shall see. I will go out on a limb and give a pessimistic assessment, and say that Ryan Madson will likely step into Gordon’s role as eighth inning setup guy for Brad Lidge by the time we get to the end of the season. Certainly Gordon’s performance in the ninth inning of Opening Day against the Nationals has done little to persuade me otherwise … Clay Condrey went 5-0 in 2007 with the Phillies, an excellent illustration of the reason why sabremetricians tend to ignore won-lost records in evaluating pitchers. Condrey did so with an ERA of 5.04 and a FIP of 4.31. Condrey’s 1.68 K/BB ratio was pretty uninspiring. He surrendered more walks than the N.L. average and got fewer strikeouts. I don’t expect to see too much from Condrey except in mop-up duty here and there … Finally we wrap up with Brad Lidge. Lidge was the Phillies biggest off-season acquisition, secured at the cost of a viable prospect (Mike Costanzo), one of the Phillies best base-stealers (Michael Bourn) and a reliable relief pitcher (Geoff Geary). The acquisition of Lidge is a major risk for the Phillies. They surrendered good talent to secure him as the team’s closer, a role Lidge occupied for the Astros from 2004 – 2007. In his first two years on the job Lidge was 71 of 79 saves with a 2.06 ERA. Then Lidge surrendered a post-season home run and hasn’t been the same. His ERA spiked to 5.28 in 2006 and he blew 6 of 38 save opportunities. Last year his ERA lowered to 3.36, but he blew 8 of 27 save opportunities. Can Lidge recapture that ’04 – ’05 magic? I think he can and the trick will be to lower those walk rates. For a closer Lidge allows a decent number of walks: 30 in 2007 (4.03 BB/9), 36 in 2006 (4.32 BB/9). He needs to lower that so that his phenomenal strikeout rate ca catch up. Check out Lidge’s strikeout rate between ’04 – ’07:

K/9:
2004: 14.93
2005: 13.12
2006: 12.48
2007: 11.82

Those are staggering numbers, not even ones that Billy Wagner, Lidge’s predecessor at both the Astros and Phillies closer could accomplish … Lidge begins the season on the D.L. and ought to return back shortly. His presence in the Phillies bullpen is essential to the Phillies long-term prospects because a bullpen-by-committee approach won’t work and Gordon probably can’t shoulder the load. If you are looking for a reason why the Phillies might miss the playoffs, look no further than Lidge’s balky knee … So there you are. That is the Phillies pitching preview. I’m sorry that it took me as long as it did, but it is done. Now, on to the fielders.

Thoughts on Opening Day & Tom Gordon's ERA

2008-04-01T11:15:00.001-05:00

Opening Day ends in bitter defeat once more for the Phillies, who drop a 11-6 decision to the Washington Nationals after Tom Gordon surrenders five runs in the top of the ninth to get the loss (fun Opening Day factoid: Tom Gordon allowed five earned runs in one-third of an inning of work, leaving his ERA at 135.0) after the Phillies managed to tie the game thanks to a two-run home run by Jimmy Rollins in the seventh inning.

Before anyone goes leaping off bridges and ceding the N.L. East and control of the known universe to the Mets, remember that Opening Day is ONE game. There are another 161 games left to play. The Phillies won the N.L. East last season despite losing 5-3 on Opening Day and opening the 2007 season with a 4-11 record. The Phillies and Nats cross swords Wednesday and Thursday, plenty of time for the Phillies to emerge from the series 2-1.

The game does serve notice that the old punchless Nationals are long gone. The lineup that faced the Phillies yesterday was strong: it pounded out seven extra-base hits, including a sixth inning home run from the bat of Lastings Milledge. Maybe the Nationals will factor in the playoff race beyond being the doormats the Phillies and Mets are crushing in September.

Meanwhile we got a good look at the Phillies new alignment and new players. Pedro Feliz was 0-for-4 with two strikeouts. Jayson Werth got the start in rightfield and doubled in three at-bats, scoring a run. Chad Durbin tossed a shutout inning.

The returning stars were a mixed bag: Jimmy Rollins was 2-for-4 with two runs scored and two RBI largely thanks to a seventh inning home run the 2007 MVP hit. Unfortunately Rollins also committed a costly error which allowed a Nationals run to score in the fifth inning. Chase Utley was 2-for-3 with two runs and RBIs likewise, but Shane Victorino was 0-for-3 and Ryan Howard was 1-for-4. Brett Myers struggled and Tom Gordon's role as setup man might go to Ryan Madson sooner rather than later.

So calm down Phillies fans. Take a deep breath! Got a long ways to go ...

On a personal note: I just completed my trial yesterday and I am busy catching up on lost blogging time. Expect my notes on Phillies pitching tomorrow or Thursday at the latest.

Opening Day: Phillies vs. Nationals

2008-03-31T06:55:00.001-05:00

Opening Day is finally here. I'm stunned. This spring has seemingly flown by and we are already into the 2008 Baseball season. At the moment I am furiously finishing my Season Preview series, of which I have yet to post about the Phillies pitching and fielding. I've been consumed at work in an exceptionally long trial that has left me physically exhausted. I hope to complete it today and post tomorrow or Wednesday.

Let's talk a little about Opening Day. Nationals vs. Phillies at 3:05 PM in Citizens Bank Ballpark. Somehow the timing doesn't feel right for me. Whenever I think of Opening Day I think of soft, warm breezes in the air, blooming flowers and a warm sun. It has been so cold this winter that it still feels like it is winter-time. Baseball somehow feels unnatural. I wonder if we'll have a repeat of last year, when cold weather in the Northeast United States resulted in havoc. (e.g., Snow in Cleveland.)

Well, if it feels like Opening Day or not, Brett Myers makes the start for the second consecutive Opening Day for the Phillies. I'm looking forward to seeing what Cole Hamels and Myers do together. They haven't played together since 2006 and in the only season where both started, Hamels was still a rookie. Teamed together, they both could win 20 games. They have that kind of talent.

Today we get our first look at the new-and-improved Washington Nationals. General Manager Jim Bowden has put together a team that reminds me a lot of his Cincinnati Reds teams: offensively inclined featuring great outfields. Well, the 2008 Nationals feature an outfield of Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns, three formitable players. Add them with Nick Johnson and Ryan Zimmerman, and the fact that the Nats are moving from RFK to a more hitter friendly park, and perhaps the Nats will actually score a few runs.

They'll need to because their pitching staff is awful. The Nats were one of the worst teams in baseball last year on the mound and that was with RFK turning 375 foot home runs into outs. Let's see how they do in cozier confines.

I think the Phillies start the season in an excellent state of mind: confident, calm, poised. My prediction: the Phillies take it 6-4, Brett Myers getting the win and Ryan Howard smashes a three-run bomb. Spring is finally here.

Phillies Season Preview 2008: Batting

2008-03-25T07:12:00.004-05:00

The Phillies 2008 season kicks off next Monday with Brett Myers taking the mound at 3:05 PM against the Washington Nationals in Citizens Bank Ballpark. I thought that I might give my two cents about this season and how it is going to unfold. If you’ve read my predictions for the National League you’ll know that I am projecting the Phillies to finish second in the N.L. East, edging out the Mets, but finishing behind the Braves and that the Phillies will flame out in the first round against the Diamondbacks. I’ve gotten a very negative reaction from Mets fans …

This will be an interesting season to watch: will the Phillies build on their division title in 2007? Or will last season prove to be a fluke? This will be an important year for the team, but not pivotal. The ’08 Phillies are a young team and will contend in 2009, in 2010 and 2011. The future is bright. Brighter, certainly, then the aging Mets.

The ’08 Phillies look like a team that will win 88-93 or so games, which will put them into the mix for the post-season. The D-Backs boasted the best record in the N.L. last season and that was just 90-72, only a game better than the Phillies. Even with Johan Santana hurling fastballs for the Mets the Phillies have a very good opportunity to make the playoffs this season. With the core of their ’08 team returning, the Phillies remain the team to beat in the N.L. East. Let’s start with the bats:

First off, here are some terms so that you are not totally confused about what I’m talking about. Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage. On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances). Walks per plate appearance (BB/PA): BB / PA = .BB/PA Avg. Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate. Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.

Ordinarily I like to post a massive piece taking everything together, but I’ve found myself deluged at work and desperately trying to finish this project. I’m going to post my thoughts on batting first, then try and finish pitching and fielding later this week. Back to the Phillies …

The 2008 Phillies will have no problem scoring runs. The Phillies 892 runs scored in 2007 led the National league by a margin of 32 over the Colorado Rockies. The Phillies also led the N.L. in On-Base Percentage (.354), in Slugging Percentage (.458), and in triples (41). They finished second in home runs (213), in stolen bases (138). The Phillies lineup is only slightly changed from last season. Gone is Centerfielder Aaron Rowand and his surprisingly productive bat. Rowand hit 27 Home Runs, 45 Doubles, 89 RBI and scored 105 runs in 2007. His 100 Runs Created were a career high for Rowand, a talented hitter who doesn’t draw walks much (just 18 in 2006, 47 last season) and tends to see inconsistent results. In his place the Phillies intend to shift Shane Victorino over the centerfield (more on that later), and platoon Jayson Werth and Geoff Jenkins in rightfield. Werth and Jenkins will slide into Rowand’s slot and platoon as the #6 hitter. Pedro Feliz replaces the ineffectual trio of Wes Helms, Abraham Nunez and Greg Dobbs as the Phillies everyday third baseman, while Carlos Ruiz takes the reins as the regular catcher, a job he’s had off-and-on for the last two seasons.

Probable Lineup:
SS – Jimmy Rollins
CF – Shane Victorino
2B – Chase Utley
1B – Ryan Howard
LF – Pat Burrell
RF – Jayson Werth / Geoff Jenkins
3B – Pedro Feliz
C – Carlos Ruiz
P – Pitcher

Jimmy Rollins, the 2007 N.L. MVP, leads off for the Phillies in 2008. Rollins was spectacular in 2007, posting a career-high 124 Runs Created, and leading the league in triples for the fourth time in his career. Rollins batted .296 (.345 OBP), hit 30 home runs, 20 triples, 38 doubles, scored 139 runs, batted in 94, and stole 41 of the 47 bases he tried to steal. Simply put, Rollins was the catalyst for the Phillies N.L.-best offense. When Rollins first joined the Phillies he was primarily there for his speed. In his first season he stole 46 bases in 54 tries. Rollins still retained his speed: his 20 triples was a career high, and the 41 steals were fifth-best in the N.L. Rollins is also a superb baserunner: he didn’t make a single baserunning out last season and gained an extra 32 bases with his savvy running, according to the 2008 Bill James Handbook … 2007 was the culmination of a long maturation in Rollins game that began in 2004 when he underwent the tutelage of Tony Gwynn, the legendary contact hitter, prior to the 2004 season. After striking out 108, 103 and 113 times during his first three MLB seasons, Rollins has lowered that to 73, 71, 80 and 85 in ‘07, becoming a much better contact hitter. In addition to making contact, Rollins has also refined his power stroke. Prior to 2006, Rollins career-high for home runs had been 14. He hit 25 in 2006 and 30 last season, major increases in his raw power at the plate:

ISO:
2001: .145
2002: .135
2003: .124
2004: .166
2005: .141
2006: .201
2007: .235

Having a guy at the top of the order with so much speed and power at the plate is a rare combination and remind many of Rickey Henderson when he helped the Oakland A’s and Toronto Blue Jays to World Series titles in 1989 and 1993 respectively … as an aside, Rickey Henderson’s MVP campaign in 1990 – 28 home runs, 119 runs scored, 65 steals in 75 tries, a .439 OBP – compares very much to J.Roll’s ’07 campaign … Much was made about the fact that Rollins led the N.L. in outs last year with 527, but much less was made over the fact that Rollins also led the N.L. in plate appearances with 778. Rollins gained nearly as many bases as MVP-runner up Matt Holliday (386 to 380), and played a more-challenging defensive position well. Holliday also plays in a much more offensive-friendly park … Without Rollins exceptional production, the Phillies would have been sunk in 2007. How will J.Roll perform in 2008? Well, the 2008 Bill James Handbook projects a decline for Jimmy Rollins in 2008: 21 Home Runs, 10 triples, 41 doubles, 120 runs scored, 76 RBI, .339 OBP, 35 steals in 45 tries, and 108 Runs Created. No doubt that Rollins won’t quite achieve what he did last season, but I think he’ll hit more like 12-15 triples, and 22-25 home runs. He’ll still be a major threat and a major reason why the Phillies are a playoff contender … Next is Shane Victorino, a talent the Phillies stole from the San Diego Padres in the Rule 5 Draft in 2004. After playing most of the season in a part-time role in ‘06 (injuries to Aaron Rowand got him into centerfield for some time, then Victorino got some playing time after Bobby Abreu was dealt to the Yankees), Victorino got to become the Phillies everyday rightfielder in 2007 but missed about a month of the season with injuries. The Flyin’ Hawaiian (Victorino grew up on Maui) is a superb defensive outfielder (more on that later) and a speed demon. Victorino hit eight triples in 2006, a taste for the Phillies of what he would accomplish in 2007. Victorino hit another three triples and stole 37 of the 41 bases he tried to steal. Victorino does have to become a smarter player on the basepaths, however: he made four baserunning outs in 2007 and gained just seven extra bases with his running. Victorino also doesn’t have Rollins power at the plate: he hit just twelve home runs in 2007. His isolated power at the plate was just .142. He gives the Phillies exactly what they need in the two slot: a fast guy who gets on base (.347 OBP) and has a little power. The 2008 Bill James Handbook, by the way, projects Victorino to pretty much repeat his performance last season: 20 doubles, 5 triples, 12 home runs, 25 steals in 32 tries, a .336 OBP and 64 Runs Created … Consistency thy name is Chase Utley. I have a feeling that I’ll be writing a lot about Mr. Utley in the coming weeks for the 2008 season because he is my odds-on favorite to be the Phillies candidate for the MVP award, and if the Phillies are in the 2008 playoff hunt, he WILL be one of the top candidates. Had Utley not have missed a month of the season last year with a broken hand I think he might have actually beaten J.Roll out for the award. Chase Utley is a nearly perfect player: he’s a power hitter with speed who gets on base, hits well in the clutch and is the best fielder at a challenging defensive position. Last season Utley was third in the N.L. in batting average (.332), fifth in On-Base Percentage (.410), seventh in slugging percentage (.566), first in Hit By Pitches (25), first in Runs Created per 27 Outs (8.1), and he finished third in doubles (48, but he almost certainly would have bested Matt Holiday’s 50 had he not been injured). Simply put, Utley’s MVP candidacy died when he lost a month of the season after being hit by a pitch on July 26th against the Nationals. Had he not he probably would have edged Rollins out based on the fact that Utley’s adjusted OPS was better than his – 145 to 118 – and was even better than Ryan Howard’s 144 … Since taking the second base job in 2005 when Placido Polanco was dealt to the Tigers, Utley has been astonishingly consistent. Look at his three-year totals for Home Runs (28, 32, 22), for Doubles (39, 40, 48), for RBI (105, 102, 103) and OBP (.376, .379, .410). When the stakes are high Utley shines. Look at Utley’s BA/RISP:

2005: .309
2006: .308
2007: .304

I think 2008 will be Utley’s season to shine. He consistently plays a tough defensive position well, hits for power and average and runs the bases well. If Utley manages the feat he’d be the third Phillie to win the MVP award in three years, feat a trio of teammates haven’t done in the National League since Mort Cooper, Stan Musial and Marty Marion did it in ’42 – ’44 … I should note that Roger Maris, Mickey Mantle and Elston Howard did it from ’61 – ’63 in the American League … I think Utley’s chances are good … Here’s a fun fact: in 2007 Chase Utley finished eighth in OPS (On-Base Percentage plus Slugging Percentage) in the National League against sliders (1.086), against changeups (1.067), and against fastballs (.977). That’s consistency … Well, we’ve discussed one MVP and a potential MVP, so let’s discuss the other MVP on the Phillies roster: Ryan Howard. The $10 Million dollar man had failed to add an award to his mantle for the first time last season after being named the 2005 Rookie of the Year and 2006 National League MVP, but he still powered the Phillies with 47 home runs and 136 RBI. Off to a terrific start this spring it will be interesting to see if the Phillies and Howard can kiss and make up, or is the split between the two irreconcilable? If Howard were to flee the Phillies as a free agent and leave for Los Angeles or New York, the calamity the Phillies would be faced with would be awful. In the here and now, Howard powers the Phillies attack with his big bat. Last season Howard was second in the N.L. in home runs (three behind Prince Fielder), second in RBI (one behind Matt Holliday), fourth in walks (107), fifth in slugging percentage (.584), and first in strikeouts … In the last three seasons Ryan Howard has struck out 380 times in 1,700 plate appearances, meaning that he strikes-out 28.2% of the time. I personally think the strikeout is over-rated. An out is an out is an out. What is the big deal if the scorers card reads “K” or “F-7”? Arguably a strikeout is better than a walk: it takes a minimum of three pitches but usually five or six to actually strikeout. A pop-fly could be one pitch or two. What’s better: an out that uses up the pitchers arm? Or a quick out on a contact play? I’ll take the strikeout. The criticism that Howard strikes out too much is nonsense, I believe. Howard’s 4.20 pitches per plate appearance were third-best in the N.L. after Pat Burrell and Todd Helton … Howard plays a vital role in the Phillies offense because he ability to bash the 400-foot home run clears the bases and gives the Phillies the big innings that power them to 7-4 victories. I look for Howard to top 50+ home runs again this season and to hit 140-150 RBI. Is a second MVP award out of reach? Not really. Ryan Howard has the ability to build on his MVP campaign in 2006 with an even better one in 2008. He also has, according to the 2008 Bill James Handbook, an 11% chance of hitting 700 or home runs, which means that he could challenge Barry Bonds 762 home runs one day in the future. At 129 in just two and a half MLB seasons, he’s well on his way … Pat Burrell enters the sixth and final year of a deal that he signed in the wake of his spectacular 2002 season, when he seemed to step into Scott Rolen’s shoes and become the focal point of the franchise. Burrell hit 37 home runs, 39 doubles and 116 RBI with a .376 OBP that season, a real breakthrough for the first overall pick in the 1998 Draft, and numbers that seemed to cement the powerful, athletic Burrell as the face of the franchise. He was going to do what Scott Rolen couldn’t or wouldn’t: become the greatest Phillie since Mike Schmidt. With the announcement that the Phillies had acquired Jim Thome heading into the ’03 season, the sky seemed the limit for Burrell. Schmidt, as I recall, predicted the duo would hit 100+ home runs together … Instead, Burrell’s horrific 2003 campaign, where he hit just 21 home runs and 64 RBI, and saw his adjusted OPS fall from 146 to 90, destroyed his promising future … Burrell’s Win Shares plunged from 25 to 9 … It was a terrible decline for a player who had once seemed like the next superstar on a team that hadn’t had one in twenty years. He spent nearly all season in 2004 regaining his stroke. Burrell’s OBP rebounded to .365, but his raw power at the plate remained flat: .195 ISO in 2003, .198 ISO in 2004. Burrell had 117 RBI in 2005, a career-high, but his production wasn’t quite the same. He still put up great numbers in ’05 – ’07, but he became a different player statistically – more of an OBP threat, more of a defensive liability – and the trauma of ’03 – ’04 remained in the minds of Phillies fans ... The shame of it is that while Pat Burrell isn’t the same player that he was in 2002, he’s a critical cog in the Phillies offense. In 2007 Pat Burrell hit 30 home runs, had 97 RBI, drew a whopping 114 walks and posted an OBP of .400 … Burrell was third in the N.L. in walks and ninth in On-Base Percentage. His 4.22 pitches per plate appearance were second to just the Rockies Todd Helton at 4.36. Burrell is no-longer an aggressive free-swinger at the plate. He’s a cautious, meticulous player. Unfortunately people buy into the image of the swaggering free swinger, so Burrell’s contributions go entirely unnoticed. The fact that he takes 63.8% of the pitches he sees – fourth in the N.L. – means that Burrell isn’t up there hacking away heroically. Interestingly, 40% of Burrell’s plate appearances ended in walks or strikeouts: outcomes where the ball was never put into play. The fact that he is often removed for a defensive substitution now is another blow to his image as the swaggering heir to Mike Schmidt. The fact is that after Ryan Howard, Burrell might be the most powerful bat the Phillies have in their lineup:

HR/AB:
Howard: 11.3
Burrell: 15.7
Rollins: 23.9
Utley: 24.9

After Howard, whose bat moves runners off the bases more efficiently? No, Phillies fans don’t trust Pat Burrell because he isn’t the heroic leader of the team anymore. Nobody who draws a walk 20% of the time he goes to the plate can be a leader, can he? … What can Burrell do in 2008? I see another 110-120 walk season with 30-35 home runs, 95-105 RBI and little respect in store for Burrell this season. I also think he’ll get off to a nice start too, because his OPS in the second half of the season last years was 1.010, seventh-best in the N.L. … The Phillies plan to platoon Jayson Weth and Geoff Jenkins in rightfield in 2008. Werth, the former Dodger, joined the Phillies last season enjoyed impressive success as the Phillies fourth outfielder, hitting 8 home runs with 49 RBI and 43 runs scored in limited action (just 304 plate appearances). Werth’s 55 Runs Created in 183 Outs meant that Werth had 8.11 Runs Created per 27 Outs, one of the best percentages in all of baseball, had he earned enough plate appearances to qualify. What was impressive about Werth’s performance was how he consistently got hits when he put the ball into play (.386 BA/BIP), worked counts to draw walks (.145 walks per plate appearance, which helped his OBP to a staggering .404) and the fact that he didn’t ground into a single double play last season. That’s right. Not a one. Zip. Zero. Zilch. Werth also hit an astonishing .379 with runners in scoring position. Naturally, I don’t expect Werth to entirely replicate his impressive .298 batting average in 2008, but his OBP ought to be in that .360 - .370 range again. Not just an OBP machine, Werth has impressive skill at the plate in terms of power: his 22 extra-base hits might not sound impressive, but given his limited action they were impressive. Werth;s Isolated Power at the plate was an impressive .161 … Jenkins, a left-handed hitter, will join the right-handed Werth in the outfield platoon. Geoff Jenkins was a long-time member of the Milwaukee Brewers and no longer fit into their plans. Might Jenkins acquisition, like Werth’s and Greg Dobbs and Chris Coste’s and David Dellucci’s, be another savvy move made by the Phillies high-command to rescue a seemingly washed up player from the slag heap and find a useful role? Jenkins isn’t the solid get-on-base with some power guy that Werth is. Jenkins is a slugger: his 32 walks in 464 plate appearances gave him an average .069 BB/PA. Jenkins hit 21 home runs and 24 doubles for the Brewers and posted a .216 isolated power last season. I hope, in comparing Werth and Jenkins, that the Phillies give more playing time to Werth and utilize Jenkins in later innings as a pinch-hitter when his capacity to stroke 400-foot home runs might be more useful. Jenkins and Werth give the Phillies a flexible platoon to replace Rowand, who used to hit in the sixth slot. I know there was much hand-wringing from Phillies fans over Rowand’s departure in the off-season, but it is silly. The Phillies could never have offered Rowand the money that the Giants, so desperate to move out of the Barry Bonds era, could have. Inking Rowand, an over-rated defensive outfielder who enjoyed a career year at the plate last season to a long-term deal would have been foolish. Check out the numbers the Bill James Handbook projects Jenkins, Werth and Rowand to post this season:

Runs Created / 27 Outs (Projected):
Jayson Werth: 6.12
Aaron Rowand: 5.63
Geoff Jenkins: 5.29

Rowand was a free-swinger who surprised everyone with an impressive .345 BA/BIP last season. Werth, and to a lesser-extent Jenkins, are savvier hitters at the plate than Rowand. Hard as it may be for Phillies fans to accept, the Phillies will hit better with Werth and Jenkins than Rowand … Moving along to the seventh slot in the Phillies lineup we encounter Pedro Feliz. The Phillies got awful production out of their third basemen in 2007, a sad fact for a team that featured the greatest third baseman of all-time just a quarter century ago. Greg Dobbs, Wes Helms and Abraham Nunez all played significant time and all, to varying degrees, failed to deliver consistent production. Helms, acquired from the Florida Marlins, was a flop, hitting .198 with runners in scoring position, just 24 extra-base hits (and just five of those were home runs), a horrible .297 OBP and an OPS+ of 88. Nunez had an OBP of .318 and an OPS of 79. Dobbs hit better last season (see below) but remains more of a pinch-hitter type of player than an every day player. The Phillies hope all of that changes with Feliz, a former San Francisco Giant. I’m frankly not impressed by the move, despite Feliz’s hot start in spring training. Perhaps Feliz will post better numbers playing in a cozy park like Citizens Bank, but some of the numbers suggest that Feliz will have issues. Let’s start with the fact that Feliz has had a sub-.300 OBP each of the last three seasons: .290 in ’07, .282 in ’06, and .295 in ’05. So the Phillies didn’t acquire Feliz for his capacity to get on base – his .049 BB/PA was the third-worst in the National League last season – can Feliz hit the ball? Well, Feliz has hit 84 home runs over the last four seasons, but that isn’t that impressive in this modern age. Disturbingly, Feliz’s isolated power has been on a trend downwards: .209 in 2004, .172 in 2005, .184 in 2006, and .165 last season. Feliz hit well with runners in scoring position last season – .310 – but in every other respect, his performance last season ought not to fill Phillies fans with hope. It should fill them with dread … Finally we get down to the catchers slot. With Rod Barajas gone the catchers slot firmly belongs to Carlos Ruiz. After being over-shadowed by Chris Coste, the thirty-something minor-leaguer (whose book I am busy reading and will shortly post a review of) who burst onto the scene in 2006, Ruiz got a lot of playing time last year and made the most of it. He hit just six home runs, but hit an impressive 29 doubles and two triples in 429 plate appearances. Surprisingly for a catcher, he was successful in six of his seven stolen base attempts. Ruiz displayed a good eye at the plate, drawing 42 walks against 49 strikeouts. His .280 batting average with runners in scoring position was pretty good. The only real surprise when looking at Ruiz’s stats was that he grounded into 17 double plays, an awfully high percentage for a guy who doesn’t play more than 70-80% of the time … That’s the Phillies starting lineup, a fearsome collection of bats that will score 850-to-900 runs next season. Here is what the Phillies bench will probably look like:

Bench:
OF – So Taguchi
IF/ OF – Greg Dobbs
IF – Wes Helms
IF – Eric Buntlett
IF / C- Chris Coste

Of the Phillies bench players, the first bat off the bench (after Jenkins or Werth) will be Greg Dobbs, who hit ten home runs and 55 RBI in 2007 in very limited action. Dobbs, who never got to play much in Seattle, finally got a chance to show what he can do. The Phillies like Dobbs a lot because he can play first base, he can play third, and he can play in the outfield. He’s the sort of versatile guy you want on your team … Chris Coste is a great story – give me a few days and I’ll finally get finished typing my review of his book, The 33-Year old Rookie – a career Minor Leaguer who jumped around in the Red Sox, Pirates and Indians systems before finding his way to Philadelphia in 2006. Pressed into duty with the injuries to Mike Lieberthal and Sal Fasano, Coste stunned observers by hitting .328 (.376 OBP) along with 7 home runs and 32 RBI in just 213 plate appearances. Coste played more sparingly in 2007, getting about 80 fewer turns at the plate and hitting .279. Coste’s OPS fell from .881 to .730 last season. The only thing I don’t like about Coste is his refusal to draw walks. He drew just four last season in 137 plate appearances and ten in 213 in 2006. Usually, I think an inability to draw walks is fatal to a player’s performance, but I still like seeing Chris Coste’s #27 on the Phillies roster. His defense improved last year (more on that later) and he became a more rounded player. He seems fated to be the Phillies backup catcher and a dangerous bat off the bench … Eric Bruntlett was a throw-in piece to the Brad Lidge deal and he seems fated to play the role of the new Abraham Nunez: the light-hitting defensive player you never want to see holding a bat at the plate in the bottom of the ninth. Bruntlett played sparingly with the Astros over the last few years and when he did he contributed little to the team’s offense. Bruntlett’s OPS for the last several years has been .705 in 2005, .695 in 2006, and .629 last season … So Taguchi joins the Phillies after spending the last several years with the St. Louis Cardinals as their reserve outfielder / pinch-hitter / pinch-runner. Taguchi is this year’s Michael Bourn, the speedy outfielder who stole 18 of 19 bases in a largely pinch-runner / defensive replacement role in 2007 for the Phillies. Taguchi has hit just 19 home runs in his MLB career, but has stolen 36 of 48 bases. Disturbingly, in exceedingly limited play last year Taguchi grounded into ten double plays … Securing the Phillies final roster slot will be Wes Helms. Based on comments from General Manager Pat Gillick the Phillies seem likely to bring 14 position players and 11 pitchers north with them, but the Phillies might go with 12 pitchers and 13 position players if they feel that they need a deeper bullpen. If they go with 12 pitchers then Helms won’t have a job anymore. (That’s good news for Clay Condrey, who seems likely to make the team only if Helms doesn’t.) I personally would prefer to see Condrey make the team over Helms. Helms was awful in 2007, hitting just five home runs and 39 RBI (and 24 Runs Created). The Phillies brought him onto the team after his strong part-time performance with the Marlins in 2006, when he posted a .390 OBP and 45 Runs Created in just 240 At-Bats. Helms OBP collapsed almost 100 points to .297 last year and he didn’t hit for power at all. The consequence was the Phillies had a light-hitting power hitter who grounded into a lot of double plays: ten. Perhaps 2007 was a fluke, but I am skeptical. Helms will have to do a lot better in ’08 to justify a roster spot, especially since the Phillies have a third baseman – Pedro Feliz – and a capable backup – Greg Dobbs – already.

What kind of a performance will the Phillies turn in this season? I’m going to project them to hit about 200 home runs, to steal 100-110 bases, to hit 320-330 doubles, and to score 900 runs. Ryan Howard will top 50 home runs and Chase Utley will make a powerful statement to MVP voters with an OBP over .400, a .300+ Batting Average, 110 RBI, 25 or so Home Runs, and 50 Doubles. If you are looking for a player to surprise you, I’d take a look at Shane Victorino. I think he’ll improve his OBP this season and will steal 45 to 50 bases, as well as hit 7 to 10 triples.

So those are the hitters. I ought to post the pitchers on Thursday and the Fielders on Friday or Saturday. No guarantees.

Stay Tuned

2008-03-24T06:56:00.000-05:00

Yeah, I was supposed to post my Season Preview for the Phillies today but I am a little behind. Stay tuned, I expect to post Wednesday. Hopefully.

In the meanwhile, check out this article from The Hardball Times talking about the Bobby Abreu deal. If you want to skip to the conclusions: the Phillies got nothing for Abreu but got to dump his salary on the only team in the MLB that could take it.

Also, apparently Adam Eaton has won the #5 starter job from Chad Durbin and Travis Blackley, apparently pitching well enough to take the job. Count on Durbin, who will move to the bullpen, to get some starts if / when Eaton and Kyle Kendrick struggle.

Predictions

2008-03-20T16:34:00.001-05:00

I've been pretty busy at my day job as a hard-charging attorney in Western Pennsylvania over the last few days to respond to emails or scope out comments. I've been waist-deep in the middle of a jury trial and preparation for another one that kicks off next week. Don't be surprised if I am a few days late on posting my Phillies preview, as I've been blissfully unaware of basically everything else that is going on in the world at large.

As for my National League predictions ... Predictably my, well, prediction that the Braves would out-pace the Phillies and Mets was met with derision (as well as bad grammar) by Mets fans. C'est la vie. Agree with me that the Braves rotation will be better or disagree, but quit displaying your own ignorance by pretending that your opinion is the only opinion anyone is entitled to.

On the plus side, please keep reading, as your obsessive, almost stalker-esqe pursuit of me across cyberspace increases the traffic on my blog.

The Hardball Times has been posting team previews for the upcoming season and I like what they have to say. Here are ...

... The Phillies.
... The Mets.
... The Braves.
... The Nats.
... & the Fishstripes.

I just got my copy of The 33-Year Old Rookie and I've been devouring it while I ride the train into work. It's really terrific and I'll be posting a review as soon as I catch my breath. Coste did a Q&A with ESPN's Page 2 here.

Monday: Phillies Preview. Maybe.

National League Predictions, 2008

2008-03-17T09:05:00.000-05:00

Last Monday I took a look at the American league. Today I look at the 2008 National League and make some predictions. Next Monday will be my official Phillies preview with all of my thoughts on the individual players themselves.

Let's talk about the N.L. Much has been made in recent years of the supposed gap in terms of talent between the American League and the National League. The deal which saw the Marlins send Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Detroit supposedly cinched the deal. The A.L. rules. Well, I’m not so sure, and not because Johan Santana wears a Mets as opposed to a Twins uniform. There is a lot of great baseball to be played in the Senior Circuit (the N.L. began in 1876, while the A.L. started in 1901) and I think that the next World Series champion will be an N.L. team.

Okay, because we go any further I am going to define a bunch of numbers that appear in this post so that you, friendly baseball fan, won't get confused and convinced that I am talking in gibberish. Here are some stats I refer to defined with respect to hitters: Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage. On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances). Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate. Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF).

Good so far? Okay, here are the stats I refer to with respect to fielding stats: Zone Rating (ZR): Is a stat which measures a player’s defensive ability by measuring plays they should have made. Admittedly, this is a stat left open to subjective opinions. Fielding Percentage: (Putouts + Assists) / (Putouts + Assists + Errors). How often the player successfully handled the ball. Range Factor: (Putouts + Assists) * 9 / IP. Essentially measures how much a player is involved in defensive plays. Unearned Run Average (UERA): (Unearned Runs Allowed * 9) / IP. Basically how many unearned runs a defense allows.

Not too confused? Okay, here are the stats I refer to defined with respect to pitching stats: Earned Run Average (ERA): Runs Allowed * 9 / Innings Pitched = What a pitcher would give up if they hurled a nine-inning game. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): (((13 * HR) + (3 * BB) – (2 * K)) / IP) + League Factor. Basically a measure of how a pitcher would have done if he had an average defense behind him. Home Runs per 9 Innings (HR/9): (HR * 9) / IP. Walks per 9 Innings (BB/9): (BB * 9) / IP. Strikeouts per 9 Innings (K/9): (K * 9) / IP.

Enough with the numbers. This is going to be a great baseball season. Let’s begin our analysis with …

N.L. East
1. Atlanta Braves
2. Philadelphia Phillies (Wildcard)
3. New York Mets
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins

The N.L. East … I’m sure most readers of my blog probably saw the order I ranked these teams at and assumed that I made a mistake. Surely Mike meant to switch #1 and #3? How can anyone in their right mind not see that the New York Mets are a lock, a shoo-in, to win the N.L. East? Might as well not even play the regular season! Just give up now and spare yourself the humiliation of defeat! … No. I looked at the numbers and came to the realization that the Atlanta Braves are the toughest team in the N.L. East, probably even the entire league. They will win the division. Quite easily, I might add. Their 2007 third-place finish was an aberration and not consistent with how well the Braves played last season. The ’07 Braves had a better runs scored / runs allowed differential (+77) than the Phillies (+71) and the Mets (+54). (Yes: the Mets probably ought to have finished third in the East instead of needing a 5-12 swan dive to blow a sure thing.) The ‘08 Braves are even better and will win 95-100 games. Why am I so confident in the Braves? Simply put, they’ve gone back to the formula that served them so well in the 1990s when Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine delivered twenty win seasons and division titles to Hotlanta. They’ve assembled the best pitching staff they’ve had in years in Atlanta with Smoltz, Glavine (returned from the Mets after a five-year stint in Queens), Tim Hudson and Chuck James. Look at how the 2008 Bill James Handbook projects the four to pitch in 2008:

Smoltz: 17-7, 3.22 ERA
Hudson: 15-9, 3.67 ERA
Glavine: 11-10, 3.99 ERA
James: 12-8, 3.86 ERA

Any team facing that rotation should weep. Added in is the problem that the Braves will have a healthy Chipper Jones (Bill James Handbook projects: 105 Runs Created in ‘08) and a full season from Mark Teixeira, who hit 17 home runs and 56 RBI in just 54 games with the Braves in ’07 (Handbook projection for 2008: 36 HR, 120 RBI, 121 Runs Created). True the Braves lost the talented defensive wiz Andruw Jones, a big reason why their pitchers did so well for so long, but they made up for it with the acquisition of Mark Kotsay from the A’s. Kotsay's .899 Zone Rating (ZR) was roughly comparable to Jones' .921, which suggests that their defense will continue to be very good. The ’08 Braves clearly improved on the ’07 squad and will be contenders … I won’t discuss the Phillies too much here – that’s what my season preview next Monday is for – but the Phillies made solid, marginal improvements to their roster by adding Brad Lidge and moving Brett Myers back into the rotation and they boast three potential MVP candidates in Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. I think the Phillies are good enough to make the playoffs, and sabremetrics guru Bill James agrees, holding the Phillies to be one of the two best teams in the National League … So why don’t I like the New York Mets? Well, for one thing they weren’t as good as they looked in 2007. As I discussed a little above, their Pythagorean win – loss record should have given them 86 wins instead of 88 and would have placed them third in the division. The question is: does the acquisition of Johan Santana alter the problems the Mets have? Absolutely not. Sure, the Mets now have a terrific starting pitcher who will contend for the Cy Young Award. However, the Mets 88 wins in 2007 were built on unexpectedly strong performances from John Maine (15-10, 3.91 ERA) and Oliver Perez (15-10, 3.56 ERA). Count on Maine and Perez to regress closer to average in 2008. Additionally, the team lost Tom Glavine, an experienced starter, to the Braves. Basically, the Mets rotation is going to consist of Maine, Perez, Santana and Pedro Martinez, provided that Pedro’s arm holds up. Good luck. Offensively the Mets have real issues on the field. Carlos Delgado is in decline after a lackluster season which saw him hit just 24 home runs and 87 RBI. Jose Reyes struggled down the stretch in ’07, so I am not sure if he’ll be in the right mental frame of mind next year. Oh, and injuries are a major issue here. With several key players in their late 30s and even 40s, they could really be done in if a key player like Carlos Beltran went down. Basically, the Mets have a few great players – Santana, David Wright, Beltran, Reyes, and maybe Pedro – surrounded by talent that ranges from average to mediocre. The Braves and Phillies have more depth than the Mets and their across-the-board strength gives them the edge in the regular season. Watch how the Mets would collapse without Beltran or Reyes in the lineup. Sure, the Mets might be tough to beat in a best-of-five – I sure wouldn’t want to face Santana and Pedro in a short series – but they don’t have the horses to go through 162 games and emerge victorious … The gap between the Mets and the Washington Nationals is enormous. The Nationals, since they moved to our nation’s capitol, have really struggled to turn things around. They’ve added a lot of hitters recently (Austin Kearns, Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes - adding quality outfielders seems to be a speciality of General Manager Jim Bowden), but their rotation is still absurdly bad. The Nationals will score a few more runs this season than they did in their dead-last 673 in 2007, but they still will allow a lot of runs. Their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA was the worst in the N.L. in 2007. Don’t expect that to improve in 2008 beyond a game or two … Speaking of not improving: the ’07 Florida Marlins were the worst defensive team in the N.L. last season (0.61 Unearned Run Average – UERA) and one of the worst pitching-wise as well (4.68 FIP, better than just the Phillies and Nationals). Take away their best hitter (Miguel Cabrera) and their best pitcher (Dontrelle Willis) and, well … There’s always 2011, Marlins fans. Sure the Marlins will reap a benefit in the long run by taking some good prospects like the Tigers Cameron Maybin, and they already have talent in Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez, but this is a 55-107 kind of team.

Other views: Click here for Baseball Prospectus' 2008 N.L. East preview. If you are interested in reading some blogs from fellow N.L. East bloggers, might I suggest ... For those interested in what Braves fans are saying, Braves Nation is a nice place to stop off at. Braves bloggers are a low-key, curiously dispassionate crew, so talking with them is pretty enjoyable. After the Mets won the N.L. East in '06 there was a glut of Mets bloggers out there on the internet. The signing of Johan Santana has evidentially prompted a new legion to hang out their shingle as well. MetsBlog is probably the best, well, Mets Blog out there, but the Mets bloggers run the risk of becoming Cubs bloggers are their worst: pathetic, ignorant, angry. In the unlikely event that you want to read about what Marlins fans are saying, scope out FishStripes. If you are into baseball in our nation's capitol, check out Nationals Power. Moving along ...

N.L. Central
1. Chicago Cubs
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

The N.L. Central … As fate would have it, 2008 marks the 100th Anniversary of the Chicago Cubs last World Series title. No pressure, Cubs fans. Is this the year that the Cubs win it all? Who knows. The ’06 Cardinals, winners of just 83 regular season games, were arguably the most unlikely World Series winner in two decades. Why not the Cubbies? … The ’08 Cubs are the best team in a bad division. The N.L. Central was probably the worst in baseball last year and might be again, perhaps eclipsed only by the A.L. West. The Cubs 85 wins were good enough to win the division and get them to the playoffs for the first time since 2003. 83-85 wins could be good enough to win in 2008 once more. The Cubs have quality pitching with Carlos Zambrano, Rich Hill, Ted Lilly and former Phillie Jon Lieber on the mound – Lieber, in particular, could be a spectacular find for the Cubs – and solid bats in their lineup: Aramis Ramirez, Derek Lee, and Alfonso Soriano. The big three of Soriano, Lee and Ramirez are all capable of producing 100+ Runs Created and Lilly, Zambrano and Hill are all capable of winning twenty games. Their ERAs last season were all under 4.00 and they all notched impressive strikeout totals. The Cubs, you may not be aware, surrendered the second-fewest runs in the N.L. in 2007: just 690. The problem the Cubs have is that the team is badly built: After the big three of Soriano, Lee and Ramirez, their lineup is pretty lousy. They have nobody to set the table. A team boasting those bats shouldn’t struggle to score runs. And yet the ’07 Cubs did. Their On-Base Percentages and Slugging Percentages were under the National League average. New centerfielder Felix Pie had an OBP of .271 in 2007. Hopefully he'll improve, but the Cubs don't have players that can get on base and set the table for the Big Three. As for power: the Big Three hit 81 of the Cubs 151 home runs, or 53%, in 2007. A team this shallow in terms of depth could falter against stronger competition … Thankfully for the North Siders, the best they have to play against are the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew, led by Prince Fielder (50 Home Runs, 119 RBI, 35 Doubles), actually led the N.L. Central for most of the season before faltering in the late summer, and might compete against the Cubs once more. They return nearly the same team to the field in 2008 that they fielded in 2007. The Brewers, who led the N.L. in Isolated Power at the plate at .194, will hit a lot of home runs, but need consistent table-setters to make Prince Fielder’s solo shots into two or three-run homers (the Brewers team OBP was a below-average .329) and they need to support their pitching staff with better defense. Ben Sheets and Jeff Suppan did a surprisingly nice job for the Brewers in 2007 (Suppan: 12-12, 4.62 ERA, Sheets: 12-5, 3.82 ERA), but their team Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER, the percentage of balls put into play turned into outs) was an absurdly bad .680. Third baseman - and undeserving 2007 Rookie of the Year - Ryan Braun committed a whopping 25 errors in 2007. Wisely, the Brewers moved him to leftfield, where he could do less damage, but this is a shoddy unit. These guys are too flawed to win consistently … The St. Louis Cardinals have gone a long way from their World Series title in 2006. The ’07 Cardinals fell apart and the team appears to be in transition. Gone are Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen, mainstays of the team over the last decade. Chris Duncan (21 Home Runs, 70 RBI) and Rick Ankiel (11 Home Runs, 39 RBI in 47 games) are the new outfielders along with centerfielder Skip Schumaker. The pitching staff is a mess. Chris Carpenter is back, but I wonder about the rest of the unit. As bad as Kip Wells was last season (7-17, 5.70 ERA), Brad Looper wasn’t much better (12-12, 4.94 ERA). I wonder, as I project the Cardinals for a third-place finish, if I am giving them too much credit. If Albert Pujols (32 Home Runs, 38 Doubles, .429 OBP, 103 RBI) is healthy, the Cardinals can go .500. Without Pujols, this team will challenge the Pirates for the cellar. They need recent signee, and former Phillie, Kyle Lohse to come up big. Good luck … I think that the day Ken Griffey Jr. retires will be the happiest day in the lives of many a Cincinnati Reds fan. When Griffey joined the Reds in 2000 it seemed that they had robbed Pat Gillick and the Mariners blind. They snared Griffey for a handful of players, didn’t have to give up defensive superstar Pokey Reese and added a formidable bat to a team that won 96 games the previous year. Griffey’s career has been one continuous disaster after another. His 144 games last season was the most he played since 2000, though he still ended the season on the D.L. His numbers at the plate are still solid (.372 OBP, 30 Home Runs and 93 RBI last season), but he’s a nightmare in rightfield. Worse, his karma has thoroughly permeated the Reds organization. That is too bad, because the ’08 Reds have some talent. Aaron Harang (16-6, 3.73) and Bronson Arroyo (9-15, 4.23 ERA) are a terrific one-two punch on the mound and put up good numbers despite pitching in one of the friendliest hitters parks in baseball. Unfortunately, the rest of the Reds pitching staff is mediocre and their fielding is equally forgettable. The Reds will hit lots and lots of homers, but they need to concentrate their resources on securing quality pitching. They might lap the Cards for third, but they won’t do much better than .500 … Former Phillies GM Ed Wade is busy trying to rebuild the Houston Astros into a contender and I wish him luck. Wade has worked some decent deals thus far, shipping closer Brad Lidge to the Phillies for Michael Bourn, minor leaguer Mike Costanzo (whom he promptly redealt to the Orioles) and Geoff Geary, then dealing for Orioles third baseman Miguel Tejada. Bourn is a solid player and Wade won’t regret that part of the deal, but the acquisition of Tejada gives him two slow, declining sluggers in Tejada and Carlos Lee on his roster. The Bill James Handbook projects Tejada, age 32, to hit just 24 Home Runs, while Lee, also 32, projects better, but both players are entering the twilight of their careers. The effort to win now might cost Ed Wade in the long run. He also needs to focus on his pitching and defense more. Both were substandard in 2007, and the weakness of his pitching staff is especially compounded by the problem that they had one of the finest pitchers in baseball on the staff in 2007: Roy Oswalt, 14-7 with 3.18 ERA. My friends at Philly Sports Talk Now picked the Astros to win the Central, but I think this could be a sixth place team … Will this be the year that the Pittsburgh Pirates finally finish above .500? This is a subject that I often find myself debating as I live here in the Western Pennsylvania area and have watched the Pirates struggle through year after year of misery on the field. My guess is that the Pirates will finish below .500 for the zillionth time since they lost the 1992 NLCS to the Atlanta Braves. That’s not to say that there is hope on the horizon for the Pirates, however. The team’s investment in pitching might really start to pay dividends in the future. Tom Gorzelanny (14-10, 3.88 ERA) and Ian Snell (9-12, 3.76 ERA) were brilliant and Matt Morris, an acquisition derided by most of the media, will give them a quality third arm. If Zach Duke (3-8, 5.53 ERA) and Paul Maholm (10-15, 5.02 ERA) turn their careers around, this could be a rotation as good as any in the N.L. That said, they need improved production from their position players. Jason Bay (21 home runs, 84 RBI) and Adam LaRoche (21 home runs, 88 RBI) both struggled at the plate and Freddy Sanchez needs to draw more walks (just 32, or .049 BB/PA) to be an effective table-setter. This was a bad unit in 2007 – particularly defensively – and it is pretty much unchanged in 2008. If Bay and LaRoche hit and if Maholm and Duke improve … this could be a dark horse team. .500 is a possibility and a division title is not impossible in the topsy-turvy world of the N.L. Central.

Other views: Click here for Baseball Prospectus' 2008 N.L. Central preview. Want to read a good Pirates blog? Check out Honest Wagner. I also like Red Reporter.

N.L. West
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. San Diego Padres
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
5. San Francisco Giants

The N.L. West … The West is Best. Team-for-team, the N.L. West is the best division in baseball, in my opinion. Any one of these teams could win the division and any team might finish dead-last and still have a .500 record. I think the Arizona Diamondbacks are the best of the bunch. With everyone yapping about how the Mets bought the pennant with Santana, everyone has ignored the fact that the D-backs have a better rotation than the Mets could hope for. Brandon Webb (18-10, 3.01 ERA), Randy "The Big Unit" Johnson and Dan Haren (15-9, 3.07 ERA) gives the D-backs three very good pitchers. This is a rotation that comes close to equaling the Braves for the best in the N.L. Yes, the D-backs starting lineup is weak. And yes, I am baffled about how they posted the best record in the N.L. despite being out-scored by 20 runs in 2007, but I like the D-backs strength on the mound and I think they’ll hit better than they did last season in 2008. This is a young team that has tasted success and wants some more … I was astonished by the San Diego Padres collapse last season: they had led the N.L. West for a good deal of the season then collapsed down the stretch not once but three times: first losing to the Diamondbacks in early September to surrender the division lead, then blowing a lead over the Brewers in the final weekend to allow the Rockies to catch up, then with Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy on the mound they still lost managed to lose. What a heart-breaking season, but the Padres offensive woes spelled their doom and will continue to haunt the team. There is a lot to like about the ’08 Padres though – any team featuring multiple Cy Young Award winners (Peavy, 19-6, 2.54 ERA and Greg Maddux, 14-11, 4.14 ERA) is going to have good pitching. Chris Young wasn’t too bad either on the mound in 2008: 9-8, with a 3.12 ERA. Peavy, Young and Maddux had three of the top seven fielding independent pitching (FIP) ERAs in the N.L. in ’08. Peavy had an astonishing 143 Pitching Runs Created, best in the N.L. (second: Brandon Webb with 129). This is a great pitching staff with a tremendous closer on the mound: Trevor Hoffman. The Padres are the ultimate pitching-and-defense oriented team: their 3.74 team FIP was the only one in the majors under 4.00 … Their .701 DER was above-average and one of the best in the N.L. Simply put, this team can prevent people from scoring runs: their 666 runs allowed was the fewest in the National League. Offensively, the Padres are pretty punchless at the plate. What surprises me about the Padres is that for a team that has such a good pitching staff and plays in such an extreme pitchers park (75 Run Factor, meaning it was 25% harder to score a run at Petco than anywhere else, and a home run factor of 71), I don’t know why the Padres don’t add more speed (just 55 stolen bases, worst in the N.L.) and better contact hitters (.322 OBP, second-worst in the N.L. after the D-backs). Surprisingly, the Padres hit with some power: their .160 isolated power at the plate was actually slightly better than the N.L. average. This team needs more speed and more table-setters. Their big off-season acquisition was to bring in a declining Jim Edmonds. Maybe Edmonds will rejuvenate his career in SD, but I think this team will fall a little short of the D-backs … What an exceptional season the Colorado Rockies had in 2007. They won 21 of 22 games to make the World Series before falling to the Red Sox. The great tragedy of the Phillies season was that they, the team of destiny, ran headlong into a team whose destiny was greater. Offensively the Rockies are fearsome. Matt Holiday would have been a deserving MVP winner if Jimmy Rollins hadn’t won. Troy Tolowitzki had one of the best seasons a Rookie has ever had. And the Rockies weren’t simple sluggers either. Holliday and Todd Helton had OBPs of .405 and .434 respectively. They even played a little small ball, leading the N.L. in 83 sacrifice hits. Defensively the Rockies are very good too. I wonder if their pitching will continue to excel. In the recent past the Rockies have seen their team ERA, which once was typically the worst in the N.L., improve to respectability. Last year’s team had a team ERA of 4.32, better than the N.L. average. The problem that I have with it is that the Rockies largely stitched it together with an assortment of spare parts here and there. Jeff Francis was great (17-9, 4.22 ERA), but the rest of the staff was a smattering of talent. Can the Rockies put things together again? I am going to say no. Third place … I feel like repeating my analysis of the Padres when I talk about the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Bill James Handbook projects Jason Schmidt, Brad Penny and Derek Lowe to go 10-6, 3.41 ERA; 12-10, 3.83 ERA; and 13-11, 3.78 ERA respectively. This is a rotation that is very strong and could be exceptional with the addition of Japanese player H Kuroda. Again, with the Padres, the Dodgers have a punchless offense that needs improvement. Perhaps free agent signee Andruw Jones will shake off his struggles last season (.222 BA) and perform well, but the Dodgers need some solid offensive firepower to move the runners around the bases. Their team .131 isolated power at the plate was the worst in the N.L. and nicely illustrates the problem teams have when they rely too heavily on timely hitting and speed to score runs. Still, the Dodgers could really surprise some people. I could even see this team in the playoffs … Finally we come to the San Francisco Giants, now entering Year 1 A.B., or After Barry. Bonds and his problematic pursuit of the home runs records has largely sucked the oxygen out of the Giants for years. They had built the team with veteran players to compliment Bonds and help him get to that elusive World Series ring, a task they nearly accomplished in 2002. Now the Giants can start to look towards their future. The thing that astonishes me is that when you look at their lineup, however, is that they have to be the oldest team in the National League. Over at shortstop is Omar Vizquel (41). Second baseman Ray Durham is 36, as are first baseman Rich Aurilla and leftfielder Dave Roberts. Rightfielder Randy Winn is 34. Catcher Bengie Molina is 33. Former Phillie Aaron Rowand is 30. Aside from third baseman Kevin Frandsen (the young pup of the group at age 26) not a single position starter is under 30. Yikes. This team is going to be bad. Last year, even with Bonds drawing intentional walks and clubbing home runs, they were still awful. The Giants scored the second-fewest runs in the N.L. and ranked fourteenth in isolated power and On-Base Percentage. In other words, they didn’t get on base and they didn’t hit for power. Defensively the Giants were pretty good and their pitching staff is the future of the team. Barry Zito has taken over as the face of the Giants turned in a solid performance (11-13, 4.53 ERA) which doesn’t really justify his contract. The real stars of the staff were Matt Cain, who went 7-16 despite posting an ERA of 3.65 (not surprisingly, he led the N.L. in tough losses with eight), and rookie Rim Lincecum, who went 7-5 with a 4.00 ERA. Like Cain, who’s eight tough losses obscure good pitching, Lincecum’s twelve no-decisions obscure good pitching too. Lincecum’s 9.22 strikeouts per nine innings was impressive and remind me a great deal of Cole Hamels. In the long run the Giants will improve, but they’ve got a ways to go and need to hope that their pitchers can win lots of 2-1 games. I think the Giants could contend, but I am skeptical. The A.B. era was something that should have begun years ago but the Giants wanted him to break the record in their uniform. Now they are paying the price.

Other views:

Click here for Baseball Prospectus' 2008 N.L. West preview. One of the best blogs on the 'Net is Geoff Young's Ducksnorts. I also like AZ Snakepit, a Diamondbacks Blog.

Playoff Race … will largely evolve into a battle between the Cubs and Brewers for the N.L. Central title, while the Diamondbacks and Braves cruise to easy wins in their races. The Phillies, Mets, Padres and Rockies will battle fiercely for the wildcard. The Rockies, and then the Mets, will falter down the stretch, making this into a two team race. The Phillies, with their superior offense, will hold off the pitching-heavy Padres for the final playoff slot …

Dark Horse team: Dodgers. Strong pitching staff might help them motor to the post-season.

NLDS:
Diamondbacks over Phillies, 3-2
Braves over Cubs, 3-1

The Phillies fall in the decisive fifth game to Brandon Webb in the heat of the Arizona desert, despite putting up a valiant battle. Meanwhile, the Braves steamroll the Cubs hitters with their rotation of pitchers.

NLCS:
Braves over Diamondbacks, 4-2. And the Braves return to the World Series for the first time since 1999 (nearly a decade!) by outlasting the D-backs. The advantage the Braves have is that they have a deeper rotation than the D-backs, who lacked the presence of Brandon Webb in the first two games of the series.

Awards:

N.L. MVP: Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies. Utley will win his first MVP award and the third for a member of the Phillies in as many years, something that hasn’t happened in the N.L. since the St. Louis Cardinals had three different winners in three years between 1942 – 1944. Why will Utley win the award? Simply put, he’s a consistent hitter who does everything well: he gets on base (.410 OBP in 2007), he hits for average (.332), he has speed (nine steals in ten tries, as well as five triples), he hits for power (48 doubles and 22 home runs in 2007 while missing a month of the season), and he plays a difficult defensive position well. He’s the best second baseman in baseball and probably the best all-around player in the National League. He had 28 Wins Shares in 2007 despite missing thirty plus games. Runners up: Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals; Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies; and Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers.

N.L. Cy Young: Brandon Webb, Starting Pitcher, Diamondbacks. Something that is very interesting about Brandon Webb: in the last two years he’s tossed nine complete games. Webb completed four starts in 2007 and Jake Peavy, the man who won the ’07 Cy Young from him, finished none. Webb was the second-best pitcher in the N.L. in ’07, but he’ll excel in 2008 with a better offense around him and more support in the rotation. Webb will win twenty games, post an ERA at or lower than 3.00, and will strikeout 200+ hitters again. Regardless of what Peavy does, what Webb does is more impressive because he does it at a hitters park as opposed to the cavernous pitchers domain of Petco in San Diego. Look for Santana to struggle in the early going with a sore arm. Runners up: Johan Santana, Starting Pitcher, Mets; Cole Hamels, Starting Pitcher, Phillies; John Smoltz, Starting Pitcher, Braves.

Rookie of the Year: Cameron Maybin, Outfield, Marlins. Expect the talented Mr. Maybin to get 162 games with the Marlins. Why not? These guys could field 5 or 6 rookies in their Opening Day roster.

World Series … The Atlanta Braves – yes those boring, dreary Atlanta Braves – will win their first World Series title since 1995 by defeating the Cleveland Indians once more in a dramatic, exciting series that sees arguably the two best pitching teams in the major leagues dueling for supremacy. I like the Braves in this series because they boast four terrific pitchers and are backed up by a solid collection of fielders and hitters. Call it Braves in six.

Next Monday: Phillies Preview! Read all about it!

Podcast!

2008-03-13T13:05:00.001-05:00

Last night I appeared on Philly Sports Talk Now to discuss the 2008 season and the Phillies. My thanks again to Jim Dogg and Rich for having me on their show. I always have a blast. Click here for the podcast.

American League Predictions, 2008

2008-03-10T08:59:00.009-05:00

Even though spring training is only half over I was too anxious to post my predictions. I am posting my A.L. predictions today and then I intend on posting the N.L. next week.

What can I say about the American League in 2008? The Junior Circuit went 137-115 against the N.L. in 2007, continuing the A.L.’s dominance of recent history. This has all been well-documented: since the Cincinnati Reds upset the Oakland A’s in the 1990 World Series four games to zip, the A.L. team has won eleven of the last sixteen World Series. I note, additionally, that the last three N.L. victories were all considered upsets: Diamondbacks over the Yankees in ’01, Marlins over the Yankees in ’03, and the Cardinals over the Tigers in ’06. Each of the four A.L. playoff teams last year won more games than any other N.L. team: the Indians and Red Sox won 96 games and the Angels and Yankees won 94. The N.L.’s best record in 2007 belonged to the Diamondbacks, who went a measly 90-72. The talent lays in the A.L. and if you had to bet on who will win the World Series, bet on an A.L. team, although with Santana journeying to Queens and the N.L., perhaps the talent flight has abated?

Okay, before we go any further I am going to define a bunch of numbers that appear in this post so that you, friendly baseball fan, won't get confused and convinced that I am talking in gibberish. Here are some stats I refer to defined with respect to hitters:

Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage. On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances). Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate. Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF).

Good so far? Okay, here are the stats I refer to with respect to fielding stats: Zone Rating (ZR): Is a stat which measures a player’s defensive ability by measuring plays they should have made. Admittedly, this is a stat left open to subjective opinions. Fielding Percentage: (Putouts + Assists) / (Putouts + Assists + Errors). How often the player successfully handled the ball. Range Factor (RF): (Putouts + Assists) * 9 / IP. Essentially measures how much a player is involved in defensive plays. Unearned Run Average (UERA): (Unearned Runs Allowed * 9) / IP. Basically how many unearned runs a defense allows.

Not too confused? Okay, here are the stats I refer to defined with respect to pitching stats: Earned Run Average (ERA): Runs Allowed * 9 / Innings Pitched = What a pitcher would give up if they hurled a nine-inning game. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): (((13 * HR) + (3 * BB) – (2 * K)) / IP) + League Factor. Basically a measure of how a pitcher would have done if he had an average defense behind him. Home Runs per 9 Innings: (HR/9): (HR * 9) / IP. Walks per 9 Innings (BB/9): (BB * 9) / IP. Strikeouts per 9 Innings (K/9): (K * 9) / IP.

Survived that? Okay, let's move along to the actual predictions. Does the A.L. Rule? That’s the party line and I’m not entirely convinced. N.L. teams are a lot better than people think. Still, there is a lot of talent in the American League and we begin with the …

A.L. East
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

The A.L. East. Ho-hum, another year and the same story basically that we’ve seen for the last decade or so. The Red Sox and Yankees battle it out for the top spot, the Blue Jays bring up the rear and the Rays and Orioles never even sniff .500 … Stop me if you’ve heard all of this before … The Boston Red Sox are loaded. They basically are returning the exact same team that went 36-16 by June 1, spent 172 days in first place last year after capturing it on April 18th, and won the A.L. East in a walk on their way to their second World Series title in four years, and just their second since Babe Ruth joined the Yankees. Their Opening Day roster ought to have 22 of their 25 players from the World Series team on the roster. Win the World Series? There is no reason to believe that the Red Sox can’t do it again in 2008. And 2009. And 2010. This is a fearsome team without any weaknesses. You want pitching? Their team ERA of 3.87 was the best in the A.L. Fielding? Their team DER of .706 tied for the best in the A.L. Offense? They were third in runs scored. Their .362 team OBP was only bettered by the Yankees. Worried because the Red Sox missed out on Santana and might lose Curt Schilling? Don’t be. The Red Sox have Josh Beckett (20-7, 3.27 ERA), Dice-K Matsuzaka (15-12, 4.40 ERA), Tim Wakefield (17-12, 4.76 ERA) and the highly touted Jon Lester waiting in the wings. If they get deep into a game with a lead, it is in the bag: the Red Sox bullpen of Jonathan Papelbon (37 saves, 1.85 ERA) and Hideki Okajima (2.22 ERA) is nearly unbeatable. Defensively the Red Sox are exceptional, and that’s with Manny Ramirez in leftfield. At the plate the Red Sox return Mike Lowell (21 home runs, 120 RBI), Kevin Youkilis (16 home runs, 83 RBI, .390 OBP), and Manny (20 home runs, 88 RBI), as well as David Ortiz. Ortiz is an exceptional hitter. His .445 OBP was the best in the A.L. in 2007. Despite being a DH, he is a legitimate MVP candidate because what he does with the bat. Great team, could win 100 games, ought to win the division in a walk … 2007 was the first time in ten years that the New York Yankees failed to capture the A.L. East crown. It was really a stunning development, as the Yankees had pretty easily cruised to nine consecutive division titles between 1998 and 2006. This off-season the Yankees underwent big changes at the top as the Bronx management bid good-bye to Joe Torre and installed Joe Girardi as manager. This is part of a larger trend within the Yankees management towards getting the team younger and building the team’s farm system. The Yankees reluctance to deal Joba Chamberlain and Philip Hughes must be seen in the context of the team wanting to get back to their successful 1996-2000 teams, which featured grinders at the plate like Paul O’Neill and Tino Martinez as opposed to their more star-studded teams that flamed out in the playoffs. Those teams were sound fundamentally, played tough defense and boasted formidable pitching. The Yankees of recent vintage have been loaded with bats but struggle to prevent runs. I like the direction the Yankees are moving in - they could be great in '09 - but I wonder if ’08 will be an off-year for them. While teams like the White Sox and Tigers made big strides and the Indians and Red Sox have superior pitching and defensive alignments, while the Yankees comparatively did little, I can’t see the ’08 Yankees doing any better than the wildcard … Someone argued recently that if the Toronto Blue Jays played in the N.L. East rather than the A.L. East, they’d easily win the division. Maybe, maybe not (the 2008 N.L. East will be pretty good), but the Blue Jays would definitely be a playoff contender. Instead they seem cursed to sit in third place, in the shadow of the Red Sox and Yankees. The thing that most impresses me about the Blue Jays is their impressive pitching and fielding. The Jays tied the Red Sox for the best Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER) in the American League at .706, meaning that they converted 70.6% of the balls put into play by their pitchers into outs. John Dewan’s Plus / Minus system rated them the best defense in baseball last season, making 92 more plays than the average team would have made. As for pitching, the Blue Jays 4.00 ERA was second to just the Boston Red Sox. Leading the way are Roy Halladay (16-7, 3.71 ERA) and A.J. Burnett (10-8, 3.75 ERA), two of the better starting pitchers in the American League. The Jays problem is that they don’t score many runs – just 753 last season. J.P. Riccardi, the former Billy Beane disciple, has built a terrific pitching and defense team, but the Blue Jays can’t figure out how to score runs and they need to do so if they are going to contend. Want to know why Toronto won't contend? Well, the Blue Jays first baseman is Lyle Overbay, who hit a mere ten home runs (a mere .151 isolated power - ISO - at the plate) and had an OBP of just .315. Simply put, first base is not a position where you can afford to have a player hitting for neither power nor average. The Blue Jays two best hitters are Frank Thomas (26 home runs, 95 RBI, age: 40) and Scott Rolen (8 home runs, 58 RBI with the Cardinals, age: 33), who are both older and are probably in major decline. The fact that Thomas led the Blue Jays in homers with just 26 is pretty bad. Simply put, the Blue Jays need to add some hitters to their lineup to be competitive with the Red Sox and Yankees … I picked the Tampa Bay Rays to beat out – if you can use those words to describe finishing in fourth place – the Orioles and I think that the Rays might be one of the most interesting teams in baseball. The least successful of the four expansion teams created in the 1990’s (the Marlins have two World Series titles, the Diamondbacks have one, and the Rockies have a pair of playoff berths to speak of), the Rays are desperately trying to break through and make an impact. I’m not sure they’ll do it, but the numbers from their ’07 campaign are interesting. Did you know that the Rays had the worst ERA in the A.L. last year? 5.54. However, the Rays led the A.L. in strikeouts: 1,194. How bizarre is that? Let’s start with their pitching. How awful were the Rays? They allowed a whopping 944 runs in 2007, 76 more than the Oroles. They allowed an A.L.-worst 199 home runs, they converted just 57% of their save opportunities, and their FIP ERA was 4.78, second-worst in the A.L. James Shields and Scott Kazmir pitched well for the Rays (12-8, 3.85 ERA and 13-9, 3.48 ERA, respectively) but the quality of their pitching staff drops off tremendously after that. Some of the pitchers how struggled in a big way last year will be back: Edwin Jackson (5-15, 5.76 ERA) and Andy Sonnanstine (6-10, 5.85 ERA), for example. Troy Percival will attempt to anchor their leaky bullpen. In order for this team to be competitive, they need to dramatically improve their pitching staff. Dramatically improve it. Defensively the Rays also need to make some strides. They were awful. While John Dewan’s Plus / Minus system rated the Blue Jays as the top team in the majors, it ranked the Ray the worst. Their -107 Plus / Minus rating was awful, as was their .657 DER. They also committed 117 errors, second worst in the A.L. Their leaky defense is a big reason why their pitchers struggled. The .648 DER behind Kazmir hurt his performance badly. Offensively the Rays have some talent, but that has been something people have been saying for years. Their hitters struck out 1,324 times in 2007, but the real problem is that their hitters, while having some power at the plate – .165 isolated power – had no table-setters: .336 OBP. The Rays have a lot of talent at the plate but they aren’t maximizing it. I say fourth place and not fifth, but only because the Orioles are more messed up than the Rays … I’ve been reading a lot of late about the Baltimore Orioles teams of the 1960’s and 1970’s. It is astonishing to me about how dominant those teams were – year-in and year-out they had power at the plate, great pitching and terrific defense – and now you look at the current Orioles and you understand how fans who grew up in the ‘60s and ‘70s must be furious at the decline of the team. Since they went to the playoffs in ’97 the Orioles have been consistently bad, posting one losing season after another. Unable to spend like the Red Sox and Yankees, they’ve also been unable to find a niche and exploit it like the Blue Jays have in managing to finish third for most of this time. No, the Orioles have finished fourth because they’ve managed to be incompetent in building their team. They’ve brought aging players in to bolster the team, squandered young talent, and have generally enraged their loyal fans. Perhaps now the Orioles are turning over a new leaf: the team’s decision to ship Miguel Tejada to the Astros and Erik Bedard to the Mariners for prospects might herald a new dawn for the Eastern Shore Birds. Losing Bedard will hurt in the short-term (his 3.33 FIP was the third-best in the A.L., and he struck out 221 batters, or a major-league leading 30% of the hitters he faced), but it was the right thing to do. Losing Tejada won’t hurt the Orioles a bit either: he is clearly in the declining portion of his career. Will the Orioles struggle in 2008? No doubt. They might be the worst team in the A.L., but there are better days on the horizon, Orioles fans.

A.L. Central
1. Cleveland Indians
2. Detroit Tigers (Wildcard)
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Kansas City Royals

The A.L. Central … The conventional wisdom is that the baseball team in Motown vastly improved themselves in the 2007 – 2008 off-season and that the Cleveland Indians, the 2007 A.L. Central champs, are going to be left in the dust. Sure the Indians kept their roster intact (23 of their 25 Opening Day guys played for the Indians in the ALCS) and didn’t make any splashy moves (signing Jamey Carroll doesn’t qualify). They also didn’t lose anyone either. The Indians return with a team that is both young and good and promises to do even better this season than it did last. The key to the Indians is their pitching staff. Last year’s Cy Young Award winner, C.C. Sabathia (19-7, 3.21 ERA), anchors the rotation and is the best individual pitcher in the A.L. with Santana gone. Sabathia’s 3.27 FIP was the second-best in the A.L., and his 1.5 walks per nine innings (BB/9) was also second-best. Sabathia is a strikeout pitcher with terrific control. His 5.65 K/BB ratio in 2007 was the best in the A.L., better than a strikeout over Santana (4.52). Right after Sabathia is Fausto Carmona (19-8, 3.06 ERA), who had the highest groundball / flyball ratio of any pitcher in the American league last year: 3.47. That G/F ratio helped Carmona induce a whopping 1.34 double plays per nine innings pitched. The .352 slugging percentage against Carmona was the third-lowest in the American League. Right after Carmona is Paul Byrd (15-8, 4.59 ERA), whose 1.3 BB/9 was the best in the A.L. This is a tough rotation to get through and a major reason why the Indians had arguably the best pitching staff in the A.L. in 2007 along with the Red Sox and Blue Jays. While their 4.05 team ERA was third in the A.L. behind the Red Sox and Blue Jays, their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA was actually better than the Red Sox: 4.12 vs. 4.24. In terms of preventing runs the Indians just need to get a little more solid in their glove work. Their 0.28 Unearned Run Average (UERA) was pretty low, but they were the league average in terms of John Dewan’s Plus / Minus and Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER). Offensively the Indians weren’t overwhelming at the plate like the Yankees, but they were very, very solid. Indians hitters were very disciplined at the plate, working counts and getting on base. Their 3.94 pitches per plate appearance was second-best in the A.L. after, you guessed it, the Red Sox. Travis Hafner (24 home runs, 100 RBI, .385 OBP) and V Martinez (25 home runs, 114 RBI, .374 OBP) paced the Indians attack, but their most valuable player was Centerfielder Grady Sizemore: .390 OBP, 33 steals in 43 tries, 24 home runs, 118 runs scored, 34 doubles, 101 walks. Power, speed, defense, Sizemore has it all. Sizemore’s 123 Runs Created and 124 Base Runs (BR is a little like RC) ranked him sixth and fourth in the American League respectively. If Sizemore plays anything like what he did in 2007, the Indians are going to be difficult to beat. First place again, until someone persuades me differently … I always try and resist being enamored of teams that make big moves in the off-season because moves that look good on paper rarely turn out in the regular season. Remember the ’02 New York Mets? Well, the ’08 Detroit Tigers could be a great team, but they have a real potential to disappoint. I tend to think that they’ll be a good team, but they could also struggle. The ’07 Tigers scored 887 runs. Now the ’08 Tigers return with basically the same lineup except they now have Miguel Cabrera (34 Home Runs, 119 RBI, 38 Doubles, .966 OPS) playing third base. Yikes. The Tigers scored a lot of runs thanks to timely hitting in 2007 (.311 BA/RISP, about eighteen points higher than the Yankees) and now will have some additional power in their lineup. However, I would be nervous, Tigers fans, over the fact that seven of their nine position players are over the age of 32:

CF – Chris Granderson: 27
LF – Jacque Jones: 33
RF – Magglio Ordonez: 34
1B – Carlos Guillen: 32
2B – Placido Polanco: 32
3B – Miguel Cabrera: 25
SS – Edgar Renteria: 32
C – Ivan Rodriguez: 36
DH – Gary Sheffield: 39

In particular, Ordonez and Sheffield – critical cogs in their offense – are due for major declines in 2008, in my opinion. Don’t be surprised to see Cabrera hitting home runs in droves and for the Tigers to still struggle at the plate. Their .311 BA/RISP is not going to be repeated in 2008. The key to the Tigers play in 2008 is going to be whether or not Granderson can repeat what he did in 2007: 23 home runs, 23 triples, 38 doubles, 26 steals in 27 tries, .361 OBP, 122 runs scored. With Granderson’s speed and power pacing their attack, the Tigers are deadly at the plate. Fielding: Granderson played well in centerfield, with a .921 Zone Rating (ZR) and 85 plays on balls outside of his zone. Second baseman Placido Polanco also had a fielding percentage of 1.000 in 2007. That’s right: 1,209 innings of work, 294 putouts, 389 assists, and not a single error. Nice work. But even with glove stars like Granderson and Polanco, the Tigers defense was substandard in 2007. They need to do better and might actually be worse with Brad Inge sitting on the bench. Pitching-wise, Dontrelle Willis might be the bigger addition for the Tigers, however, helping to stabilize a rotation that was actually below-average in 2007 (4.57 ERA). Willis, who had an off-year in 2007 (10-15, 5.17 ERA), will benefit from the change in scenery and will do well paired with Justin Verlander (18-6, 3.66 ERA). Jeremy Bonderman needs to do better than his 5.01 ERA. Their bullpen is weak too. Don’t be surprised to see the Tigers try and pry Joe Nathan off of the Twins, or Joe Blanton from the A’s. I look at the ’08 Tigers and I see a team that might be better in 2008, but it also might not … I was sorely tempted to rank the Chicago White Sox first in the A.L. Central and make them a playoff team, but I am wary about making such a bold prediction. I’ll play it safe and say 83-86 wins and third place for the ChiSox, but the truth is that the ’08 White Sox might be very, very good. They made a lot of good moves in the off-season. Nothing as flashy as the deals made by the Mets and Tigers, but ones that will pay off in the long run. Goodbye Darin Erstad (4 home runs, 32 RBI, .310 OBP), Jon Garland (10-13, 4.23 ERA), and Scott Podsednik (2 home runs, 11 RBI, .290 OBP). The elimination of Erstad and Podsednik alone qualifies as addition by subtraction. In their place the White Sox bolstered their bullpen by adding Scott Linebrink (3.80 ERA) and Octavio Dotel (4.11 ERA, 11 saves in 15 tries in 2007). Orlando Cabrera, gained in the Garland deal, bolsters a bad defense (-76 plays according to John Dewan’s Plus / Minus system) with his glove work (4.42 Range Factor, .983 Fielding Percentage). Finally, the White Sox stole Nick Swisher from the Oakland A’s. After the Tigers, the White Sox might be the most improved team in baseball. (Yes, more improved than the Mets.) I noticed that nearly all of these moves made by the White Sox basically flew under the radar of the baseball establishment. The only thing that would worry me is the fact that, like the Tigers, the White Sox have some older key players, such as Jermaine Dye (34), Jim Thome (37), and Paul Konerko (32). Catcher A.J. Pierzynski and Third Baseman Joe Crede are 31 and 30 respectively. The play of Dye will be key in 2008. He slumped badly in ’07, hitting 28 home runs and 78 RBI with an OBP of just .317. With Dye went the White Sox offense. As a team they ranked dead-last in the A.L. in OBP at .318. The White Sox lineup has some pop – second in the American league in home runs – but they hit a lot of solo home runs. Despite hitting 190 homers, the White Sox finished last in the A.L. in runs scored with 693. White Sox hitters hit the fewest singles in the A.L.: 882, and the fewest doubles: 249. The teams decision to re-emphasize “small ball” in 2007 was a tragic mistake. The team’s 41 sacrifice bunts squandered outs they could ill afford, and the 45 times they were caught stealing hurt too. They need to hit more consistently and set the table more in 2008. They also need to get more consistent play from their starting pitchers to get the team into position to hand off their leads to strong bullpens. I look for former Phillie Gavin Floyd to have a good season for them to have success. That weakness in their pitching staff is the only reason why I am not ranking them ahead of the Tigers. That, and their defense was terrible in 2007 … Here is the reason why the Minnesota Twins won’t do worse than their 79-83 record from 2007. They signed Adam Everett. ‘Nuff said. Adam Everett, as sabremetricians know, is one of the finest defensive players in all of baseball. Not as flashy or as adored by the media like the Yankees Derek Jeter, but a great player. Between 2005 and 2007, Adam Everett rated a whopping +92 under John Dewan’s Plus / Minus system, meaning that Everett made 92 more plays than an average player would have made in that time. Assuming that a play equals half a run, that’s 45 or so runs Everett saved with his glove over the last three years, phenomenal work on his part. And yet Everett attracted scant attention on the free agency market, allowing the Twins to scarf him up. This team is going to be fine, Johan Santana or no Johan Santana, because they make moves like that. This is, in my estimation, a young team that is going to be able to win baseball games. Francisco Liriano, who went 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA in 2006 before being injured and missing 2007, will be able to pick up the slack. The team also has star closer Joe Nathan (37 of 41 saves, 1.88 ERA in 2007), who is available to nail down victories, or the ability to snare prospects when the Twins ship him to a team like the Angels or Mariners, desperate to win. At the plate the Twins may miss Torii Hunter’s bat, but they’ve got terrific weapons in Joe Mauer (.382 OBP in 2007), and Justin Morneau (31 home runs, 111 RBI, .343 OBP). The Twins will have to win a lot of 3-2 games, but they have the ability and guys like Mauer and Morneau can help them squeeze out the runs. Losing Santana will hurt, but this team can do .500 … When thinking about the Kansas City Royals I am reminded of the line from Rounders when Matt Damon said if you look around a card table and can’t pick out the sucker, then you’re it. I wonder if the Royals approach their season the same way. Look around the table: the stacked Indians, the improved Tigers and White Sox, the still-dangerous Twins. The Royals are the suckers. Sadly, once upon a time (okay, it was 1975 – 1985) the Royals were actually a pretty good team. Just a few years after their creation in ’69, Whitey Herzog led them to a 91-71 finish in ’75, then three consecutive division titles (and three consecutive ALCS losses to the Yankees), becoming the Phillies victim in the ’80 World Series, more near-misses in ’81 and ’84 before stunning the Cardinals in the ’85 World Series. Since then there have been few highs for Royals fans: 100+ losses four of the last six seasons and the strengthening of the division from being a collection of doormats to real contenders. The Royals have some talent on the roster – Third Baseman Alex Gordon and Leftfielder Mark Teahan stand out – but the team needs to expand their payroll and build their farm system. I will note that the teams decision to award Gil Meche a $55 million-dollar deal, much maligned at the time, doesn’t look so crazy when you consider that Meche posted a respectable 3.67 ERA in 2007. Maybe the Royals are moving in the right direction after all …

A.L. West
1. Anaheim Angels
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Texas Rangers
4. Oakland A’s

The A.L. West … Basically, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (or whatever the heck their name is) cannot fail to make the playoffs. It’s virtually impossible. It is very possible that none of the other teams in their division will have a winning record, so the Angels could waltz into the playoffs with a 82-80 record quite easily. I’m not a huge fan of the Angels, that collection of small ballers that led the American League in sacrifice hits and was second in stolen bases in 2007. I don’t like the way they play baseball and I don’t think the team is particularly good. The sad fact is that the Halos are poised to dominate the A.L. West for years to come because the division is so weak now and management has very deep pockets. The ’08 Angels feature a solid pitching staff consisting of John Lackey (19-9, 3.01 ERA, but a 3.66 FIP), Jered Weaver (13-7, 4.30 ERA) and new addition Jon Garland (10-13, 4.23 ERA). The below-average defense is sapped by the team’s decision to ship Orlando Cabrera to the White Sox in the Garland deal. Any team featuring Vlad Guerrero and Torii Hunter in the outfield won’t be totally bad, however. Speaking of Hunter, he was the Angels big acquisition in the off-season, as the team forked out $90 million over six years for the declining star. Hunter hit .287 with 28 home runs and 107 RBI in 2007 for the Twins, but he also was caught nine of the twenty-seven times he tried to steal, grounded into 17 double plays, and struck out 101 times. Hunter turns 32 this season and the Bill James Handbook projects a decline. Certainly this is a deal that the Angels will regret – as they regretted their decision to sign Gary Matthews, Jr. the previous year – as Hunter gets into 2010, 2011 and 2012. The Angels lack of power is the reason why they aren’t likely to get past the first round of the playoffs and probably won’t do better than third or fourth in the East or Central divisions. You can’t always move the ball with bunts and steals and clutch hitting. The Angels wait for the perfect bunting situation and they are still waiting. The sad fact is that the rest of the division is so weak that the Angels are a near-lock to make the playoffs … I’ve always liked the Seattle Mariners. The ’07 team was a major surprise, actually challenging the Angels for the division before fading down the stretch. They were an absurdly lucky team last year, winning 88 games despite being outscored by 19 runs! Their Pythagorean win-loss record ought to have been 79-83. In case you are wondering how the A.L. West would have looked:

“Real”:
1. Anaheim: 94-68
2. Seattle: 88-74
3. Oakland: 76-86
4. Texas: 75-87

“Pythagorean”: (Games Under / Over)
1. Anaheim: 90-72 (-4)
2. Oakland: 79-83 (+3)
3. Seattle: 79-83 (-9)
4. Texas: 78-84 (+3)

That doesn’t auger well for 2008. Unfortunately the Mariners decided to bet their farm system on a playoff push in 2008 by sending loads of prospects to the Orioles for Erik Bedard (13-5, 3.16 ERA), so the Mariners can team him with Felix Hernandez, the phenom who stunned the Red Sox by out-pitching Dice-K Matsuzaka in his TV debut before settling into a mediocre 14-7 with a 3.92 ERA. The Mariners are hoping that Bedard and a rejuvenated King Felix can give the team a big one-two punch in 2008. The Mariners also made the bone-headed decision to give millions to Carlos Silva (13-14, 4.19 ERA), one of the few decent – and by that I mean better than awful – arms on the free agency market. I think the Mariners real problem is that they don’t muster much offense (794 runs scored, exactly the A.L. average) and their fielding is surprisingly poor – a .675 DER, thirteenth in the A.L., higher only than the Tampa Bay Rays. Ichiro Suzuki will continue to be a hitting dynamo (.351 batting average, second-best in the A.L.), but the Mariners can’t score runs unless Adrian Beltre re-discovers what made his 2004 season with the Dodgers so amazing (48 home runs, 121 RBI, 120 Runs Created). Since ‘04, Beltre has been a bust:

Runs Created
2004: 120
2005: 75
2006: 85
2007: 79

Perhaps the Mariners should have realized that Beltre’s 2004 season was a big anomaly compared to his career between 1999 and 2003:

Runs Created:
1999: 84
2000: 85
2001: 60
2002: 74
2003: 66

I’ll stop beating up on the Mariners, but their massive contract to Beltre has a major blunder that the team is going to be paying for years to come. I see the Mariners winning 75-80 games at best and second place … Lots of former Phillies on the Texas Rangers roster. Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, and Robinson Tejada are likely to be three of the Rangers five starting pitchers, while Marlon Byrd patrols their outfield. The ’07 Rangers struggled through a difficult season but seem like they are headed in the right direction finally. Even without Mark Teixeira, the Rangers are going to hit a lot of home runs at the Ballpark at Arlington. Their problem is that they need to improve their pitching staff – their 4.89 FIP ERA was the worst in the A.L. – and they need to play better defense. Their 0.56 UERA was worst in the A.L. The Rangers need to be more technically sound before they can think about contending … The Oakland A’s are in the midst of a rebuilding project after their sputtering 76-86 finish in 2007. Gone are pitcher Dan Haren (15-9, 3.07 ERA) and outfielder Nick Swisher (22 home runs, 78 RBI, .381 OBP), as well as Mike Piazza, Mark Kotsay and Shannon Stewart. Look for Billy Beane to deal Joe Blanton (14-10, 3.95 ERA) to a contender (White Sox?) before the season is done. Swisher and Blanton, of course, were major figures in Michael Lewis’ book Moneyball (see, pages 113-114), so the 2007-2008 campaigns are a major turning point for the A’s. Can the A’s compete in the A.L. West even with their depleted roster? Anything is possible, but I am a skeptic. Even with Jack Cust, the A’s are unlikely to even equal their 76 wins from last season. This is a 70-72 win team. In the long run, however, the future is bright for the A’s.

The Playoff Race … will go along with a fierce race in the A.L. East between the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox that sees the Red Sox pull away in August to capture the A.L. East crown, while the Angels have the West locked up around Labor Day. Meanwhile, in the Central, the White Sox, Indians and Tigers hold a spirited battle, all the while looking in their rear-view mirror at the Blue Jays and Yankees. When the season shakes out, the Indians narrowly take first place, the Tigers shift their attention in time and take the wildcard and the Yankees sit out the post-season for the first time since 1993.

Dark horse team: Minnesota Twins. Remember when Alex Rodriguez fled the Seattle Mariners and they ended up winning 116 games the next season? I’m not saying that the Twins are going to do that, but shedding the aging Torii Hunter and losing Johan Santana might not be the catastrophe that everyone seems to believe that it is. They seem to be stout defensively with Everett and might be as good with Liriano on the mound as Santana. Maybe a wildcard contender?

The playoffs …

ALDS:
Boston over Detroit, 3-1
Cleveland over Anaheim, 3-0

The Tigers improved hitting is no match for the Red Sox pitching, as the Tigers fall in four. Meanwhile, the Indians make swift work of the Angels, who lack a real offensive threat to challenge the Indians robust pitching staff.

ALCS:
Cleveland over Boston, 4-3

In an upset, the Indians manage to stave off the Red Sox and win the series in four games, with C.C. Sabathia out-dueling Beckett to win the critical seventh game. This will be a dramatic series and the most memorable in baseball since the ’04 ALCS.

Awards:

A.L. MVP: David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox. The great hero of the ’04 ALCS, the tremendous presence at the plate that he is, Ortiz is the best player in the A.L. who does not pitch. Yes, he doesn’t play defense, but no team expects more of Ortiz and he’s always delivered the clutch hits, he’s always hit the big three-run bomb when the Red Sox need him. Ortiz will probably club 40+ home runs, 120+ RBI, draw 110-120 walks, 50+ doubles, and lead the A.L. in most offensive categories. Runners up: Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees; Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Tigers, and Grady Sizemore, CF, Indians.

A.L. Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia, Starting Pitcher, Indians. I actually think a pretty good argument can be made for Sabathia for MVP, but pitchers never get considered. That said, with Johan Santana gone the path for Sabathia to take his second consecutive Cy Young is pretty clear. Runners up: Dice-K Matsuzaka, Starting Pitcher, Red Sox; Jonathan Papelbon, Closer, Red Sox; Fausto Cardamona, Starting Pitcher, Indians.

A.L. Rookie of the Year: Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays. Longoria will enter the Rays lineup and hit 30 Home Runs and 80-90 RBI. Runner up: Mike Costanzo, 1B, Baltimore Orioles.

More on the N.L. next Monday …