Saturday, January 27, 2007
Go East, Pat Gillick (quickly!)
The Yankees have sent a delegation to China to try and promote the game of baseball there. The Yankees can't rule the world. Let's hope someone like ... I dunno ... the Phillies might realize that there is a growing, untapped market for merchandise and talent that might be explored.
(0) comments
Go East, Pat Gillick (quickly!)
The Yankees have sent a delegation to China to try and promote the game of baseball there. The Yankees can't rule the world. Let's hope someone like ... I dunno ... the Phillies might realize that there is a growing, untapped market for merchandise and talent that might be explored.
(0) comments
Friday, January 26, 2007
The Farm Report, Part IV: Clearwater Threshers
The Clearwater Threshers finished with a 77-72 record in the Florida State League (FSL), ending up twelve and a half games out of first place. In a contrast to the Batavia Muckdogs and the Lakewood Blue Claws, the Threshers were more of an offensive team, finishing fourth in runs scored and leading the FSL in OBP. It was a good thing that they scored runs, because they did a bad job stopping the opposition, allowing a 4.01 ERA, tenth of twelve teams. Expect the Threshers ERA to improve in 2007 with Carlos Carrasco, Matt Maloney and Josh Outman, all hot Phillies prospects, likely to join the team from Lakewood. The Phillies dramatic commitment to pitching – 12 of the Phillies first 21 picks in the 2005 draft were pitchers, as were 6 of the first 12 in 2006 – will bear fruit for the future.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
Gross Productive Average (GPA): (1.8 * .OBP + .SLG) / 4 = .GPA. Invented by The Hardball Times Aaron Gleeman, GPA measures a players production by weighing his ability to get on base and hit with power. This is my preferred all-around stat.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Walks per plate appearance (BB/PA): BB / PA = .BB/PA Avg
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
...and for the pitchers ...
WHIP – Walks plus hits by innings pitched: (BB + H) / IP = WHIP
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
As I noted, the Threshers were nothing special in terms of their pitching in 2006. J.A. Happ, the highly regarded prospect who jumped from the Threshers to the Reading Phillies to the Scranton Red Barons in 2006, hurled eighty innings in 2006, 3-7 with an impressive 2.81 ERA. Happ struck out four times as many batters as he walked with the Threshers (77 to 19), a factor which led Baseball America to peg Happ as having the best control of any Phillies prospect, and to rank him as the eighth-best prospect in the Phillies organization. Happ’s stats:
HR/9: 1.01
BB/9: 2.14
K/9: 8.66
WHIP: 1.03
After Happ, the Threshers best pitcher was Kyle Kenderick, who went 9-7 with a 3.53 ERA, good for seventh in the FSL. I wonder what Kenderick’s pro prospects look like however: he just finished a short stint for the Peoria Saguaros in the Arizona Fall League where he went 2-0, but with a 6.75 ERA.
The Threshers have two players that interest us: Mike Costanzo, a third baseman and the Phillies first pick in the 2005 draft (in the second round), and Gregory Golson, an outfielder and the Phillies first pick in the 2004 draft (in the first round). We’ll start with Golson, who I talked a little about yesterday and was lucky to escape Lakewood and move up to Clearwater.
Golson struggled mightily in 2005, hitting just .242 GPA with 106 strikeouts and just 26 walks in Lakewood. When you are 4.08 times more likely to strikeout than to walk, you are going to struggle badly, and Golson did. Golson, the Phillies tenth-best prospect according to Baseball America, didn’t improve with the Blue Claws in 2006, hitting a .199 GPA with 107 strikeouts to 19 walks (an atrocious 5.63 K/BB). Aside from displaying speed in Lakewood – 48 steals in 64 attempts between 2005 and 2006 – Golson really struggled to make much of anything happen.
Despite his struggles, the Phillies moved Golson up to Clearwater to join the Threshers. Golson then improved dramatically, hitting .264 GPA. The ability to draw a walk still eluded him (just eleven vs. 53 strikeouts, 4.81 K/BB), but Golson suddenly displayed some power to his swing:
ISO
Clearwater (’06): .208
Lakewood (’06): .075
Lakewood (’05): .125
Perhaps Golson will make the Phillies roster one day, but that day is not tomorrow and he still needs to work on his plate discipline. If he does that, he’ll be deadly on the base-paths. Baseball America named Golson as the Phillies best base-runner and their best athlete. BA also named Golson as the Phillies best defensive outfielder and said that Golson had the team’s best arm. Golson was the sole Phillies prospect to place in BA’s top ten for the FSL, ranking at number twenty.
Top Prospect Alert is a little higher on Golson, ranking him as the Phillies top position player prospect and as the Phillies fourth overall prospect.
Mike Costanzo’s career seems to be rolling along quite nicely. In 2005 he played for the Batavia Muckdogs and hit .278 GPA with a .199 ISO. Costanzo was bumped up to Clearwater, bypassing Lakewood, and played some more good baseball: .267 GPA, .153 ISO. Impressively, Costanzo displayed a lot of power at the plate and, while he struck out 133 times in 2006, he also drew 74 walks and his OBP was over one hundred points better than his batting average. He strikes me that he’s got the stuff to be a big leaguer: he’s got power at the plate and has enough bat control to work the counts and get on base. We’ll see Mike Costanzo in the big leagues for sure. Costanzo was also a 2006 All-Star for the FSL, and BA ranked him as the Phillies top power-hitting prospect.
It will be interesting to watch the Threshers in 2007. Will Golson and Costanzo advance to Reading and Ottawa? Will Maloney, Outman and Carrasco dominate the FSL? With so many exciting prospects down in the Phillies system at Lakewood, Batavia and the GCL, expect there to be a lot of action in Clearwater in 2007.
(3) comments
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
Gross Productive Average (GPA): (1.8 * .OBP + .SLG) / 4 = .GPA. Invented by The Hardball Times Aaron Gleeman, GPA measures a players production by weighing his ability to get on base and hit with power. This is my preferred all-around stat.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Walks per plate appearance (BB/PA): BB / PA = .BB/PA Avg
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
...and for the pitchers ...
WHIP – Walks plus hits by innings pitched: (BB + H) / IP = WHIP
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
As I noted, the Threshers were nothing special in terms of their pitching in 2006. J.A. Happ, the highly regarded prospect who jumped from the Threshers to the Reading Phillies to the Scranton Red Barons in 2006, hurled eighty innings in 2006, 3-7 with an impressive 2.81 ERA. Happ struck out four times as many batters as he walked with the Threshers (77 to 19), a factor which led Baseball America to peg Happ as having the best control of any Phillies prospect, and to rank him as the eighth-best prospect in the Phillies organization. Happ’s stats:
HR/9: 1.01
BB/9: 2.14
K/9: 8.66
WHIP: 1.03
After Happ, the Threshers best pitcher was Kyle Kenderick, who went 9-7 with a 3.53 ERA, good for seventh in the FSL. I wonder what Kenderick’s pro prospects look like however: he just finished a short stint for the Peoria Saguaros in the Arizona Fall League where he went 2-0, but with a 6.75 ERA.
The Threshers have two players that interest us: Mike Costanzo, a third baseman and the Phillies first pick in the 2005 draft (in the second round), and Gregory Golson, an outfielder and the Phillies first pick in the 2004 draft (in the first round). We’ll start with Golson, who I talked a little about yesterday and was lucky to escape Lakewood and move up to Clearwater.
Golson struggled mightily in 2005, hitting just .242 GPA with 106 strikeouts and just 26 walks in Lakewood. When you are 4.08 times more likely to strikeout than to walk, you are going to struggle badly, and Golson did. Golson, the Phillies tenth-best prospect according to Baseball America, didn’t improve with the Blue Claws in 2006, hitting a .199 GPA with 107 strikeouts to 19 walks (an atrocious 5.63 K/BB). Aside from displaying speed in Lakewood – 48 steals in 64 attempts between 2005 and 2006 – Golson really struggled to make much of anything happen.
Despite his struggles, the Phillies moved Golson up to Clearwater to join the Threshers. Golson then improved dramatically, hitting .264 GPA. The ability to draw a walk still eluded him (just eleven vs. 53 strikeouts, 4.81 K/BB), but Golson suddenly displayed some power to his swing:
ISO
Clearwater (’06): .208
Lakewood (’06): .075
Lakewood (’05): .125
Perhaps Golson will make the Phillies roster one day, but that day is not tomorrow and he still needs to work on his plate discipline. If he does that, he’ll be deadly on the base-paths. Baseball America named Golson as the Phillies best base-runner and their best athlete. BA also named Golson as the Phillies best defensive outfielder and said that Golson had the team’s best arm. Golson was the sole Phillies prospect to place in BA’s top ten for the FSL, ranking at number twenty.
Top Prospect Alert is a little higher on Golson, ranking him as the Phillies top position player prospect and as the Phillies fourth overall prospect.
Mike Costanzo’s career seems to be rolling along quite nicely. In 2005 he played for the Batavia Muckdogs and hit .278 GPA with a .199 ISO. Costanzo was bumped up to Clearwater, bypassing Lakewood, and played some more good baseball: .267 GPA, .153 ISO. Impressively, Costanzo displayed a lot of power at the plate and, while he struck out 133 times in 2006, he also drew 74 walks and his OBP was over one hundred points better than his batting average. He strikes me that he’s got the stuff to be a big leaguer: he’s got power at the plate and has enough bat control to work the counts and get on base. We’ll see Mike Costanzo in the big leagues for sure. Costanzo was also a 2006 All-Star for the FSL, and BA ranked him as the Phillies top power-hitting prospect.
It will be interesting to watch the Threshers in 2007. Will Golson and Costanzo advance to Reading and Ottawa? Will Maloney, Outman and Carrasco dominate the FSL? With so many exciting prospects down in the Phillies system at Lakewood, Batavia and the GCL, expect there to be a lot of action in Clearwater in 2007.
Thursday, January 25, 2007
The Farm Report, Part III (Lakewood BlueClaws)
When I was doing some research on how the minor league teams seasons unfolded I was interested to see how well the Phillies affiliates did in terms of pitching: three of the Phillies six teams led 
their league in ERA. J.P. Schwartz and Top Prospect Alert have ranked the Phillies Top Ten prospects and tabbed seven pitchers vs. three position players as being the Phillies top ten prospects. Baseball America is in agreement. (With the number but not necessarily the players.) We’ll look today at Single-A Lakewood, which won the South Atlantic League (SAL) on the strength of a tough pitching staff that had the league’s best ERA, best WHIP, allowed the fewest home runs and struck the most batters out. This is where the future of the Phillies rotation is being founded.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
WHIP – Walks plus hits by innings pitched: (BB + H) / IP = WHIP
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
...and for the batters ...
Gross Productive Average (GPA): (1.8 * .OBP + .SLG) / 4 = .GPA. Invented by The Hardball Times Aaron Gleeman, GPA measures a players production by weighing his ability to get on base and hit with power. This is my preferred all-around stat.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
The 2006 Blue Claws won the SAL title, going 84-55 and winning the Championship three games to one, all the while hurling 19 shutouts in 139 games, i.e. roughly one in every seven games. Baseball America rates three of the Phillies top ten prospects as Blue Claw pitchers. Heading the list were Carlos Carrasco (#1), Josh Outman (#6), and Matt Maloney (#9). Baseball America rated Carrasco, Maloney and Outman as being the number five, nineteen and twenty prospects in the entire SAL. Top Prospect Alert agrees, ranking Carrasco and Maloney 1-2, followed by Outman at #9.
Here is how Maloney, Carrasco and Outman did in 2006:
Matthew Maloney: W-L: 16-9; ERA: 2.03; WHIP: 1.14 … Good stats. Here is what is really impressive:
FIP: 3.01
HR/9: 0.27
BB/9: 3.90
K/9: 9.60
K/BB: 2.47
The Phillies third-round pick in the 2005 draft, Maloney got to skip the GCL Phillies last season and jump to Batavia, where he also pitched well: 2-1; 3.89 ERA; 1.43 WHIP …
HR/9: 0.49
BB/9: 3.65
K/9: 8.76
K/BB: 2.40
Clearly Maloney has great stuff. He was named the 2006 SAL Pitcher of the Year and won the Blue Claws the SAL title with a brilliant 5-0 complete game victory over Augusta. In his two playoff starts Maloney was 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA with 23 strikeouts and two walks allowed.
Now consider Carlos Carrasco: W-L: 12-6; ERA: 2.26; WHIP: 1.05. Take a closer look at Carrasco’s stats …
FIP: 3.18
HR/9: 0.34
BB/9: 3.67
K/9: 8.98
K/BB: 2.45
You can already see the improvement in Carrasco: in 2005 he began by running through the Gulf Coast League (GCL), hurling five innings before going to Batavia and pitching just fifteen and a third innings. Despite having mediocre numbers at Batavia (0-3, 13.50 ERA), Carrasco went to Lakewood. There, he turned in a rough performance, going 1-7 with a 7.04 ERA. Carrasco’s stats from his 2005 campaign at Lakewood make his ’06 campaign even more impressive:
HR/9: 1.58
BB/9: 4.02
K/9: 6.61
Carrasco had a 1.64 K/BB ratio in 2005, compared to the 2.45 he had in 2006. He had great stuff and clearly put it together in 2006. Looking at the 1-10 mark Carrasco posted in ’05 with the Muckdogs and Blue Claws, I would have assumed that his career was a bust. In the minors things can change quickly … I expect to see Carlos Carrasco playing with the Phillies along with Matt Maloney in the future.
Finally, Josh Outman: 14-6; ERA: 2.95; WHIP: 1.25 … and a closer look:
FIP: 3.25
HR/9: 0.29
BB/9: 4.35
K/9: 9.33
K/BB: 2.15
Outman was the Phillies tenth pick in the ’05 draft. Like Maloney he got to skip the GCL and go straight to Batavia in 2005: 2-1; 2.76 ERA; 1.26 WHIP. He actually posted, in many respects, better stats than Maloney that season:
HR/9: 0.31
BB/9: 4.30
K/9: 9.51
K/BB: 2.21
If you are wondering, Maloney, Carrasco and Outman finished two, three and five in the race for the South Atlantic League’s ERA title. Maloney led the SAL in strikeouts, while Outman and Carrasco were second and third. This was a dominating trio of pitchers. Each one of them pitched strong in 2006. Look at their stats and compare them to the South Atlantic League averages:
ERA: 3.88
HR/9: 0.66
BB/9: 3.46
K/9: 7.56
A few things popped out at me: first, Maloney, Carrasco and Outman each allowed more walks than the league average, and in the case of Outman, it was much higher, so there are some control issues that need to be worked out. Consider also that Maloney, Carrasco and Outman all exceeded, by a wide margin, the league average for strikeouts. Maloney in particular impressed me, wiffing nearly ten batters per nine innings. These guys have great stuff but they need to be refined slightly. Reminds of me the scene in Bull Durham, when the coaches evaluate Nuke LaLoosh’s first outing for the Bulls by noting that he set two Carolina League records, one for striking out eighteen batters and one for walking eighteen. As soon as Maloney, Carrasco and Outman get a good handle on their control, they’ll pitch very well.
With the quick development of Cole Hamels, Scott Mathieson’s uncertain future and the rest of the up-and-coming pitchers in the Phillies system, might the Phillies much maligned pitching staff have a bright future? We’ll see. Certainly the strength of the Blue Claws (and the Muckdogs) in 2006 augers well for the continued development of the Phillies pitching.
As with the GCL Phillies and the Muckdogs, the same cannot be said about the Blue Claws position players. Lakewood ranked eighth in the SAL in runs scored and On-Base Percentage, tenth in slugging percentage, fourteenth in home runs, and seventh in stolen bases. I had complained about the emphasis on small ball with the GCL Phillies and Muckdogs, and I worry the same here. Despite having an average-to-mediocre offense, the Blue Claws still won the SAL thanks to their exceptional pitching.
Any discussion of the Phillies position players in Lakewood has to start with Gregory Golson, an outfielder and the Phillies first-round pick in 2004. This was Golson’s second year at Lakewood. Golson hit just a .199 GPA in 2006, a terrible number largely the product of a .258 OBP. He has some power to his swing (seven home runs), and he’s got speed (23 steals in 30 attempts, which isn’t bad given how little he got on base in 2006), but nobody who strikes out 107 times in 387 At-Bats is going to make the majors. Golson’s ’06 campaign was actually a regression from ’05, when his GPA was a much more respectable .242. Again, Golson displayed a lot of speed that season – 25 steals in 34 tries – but he K’d 106 times in 375 At-Bats. These struggles are remarkable for a player who did well in his debut in the GCL, striking out just five times in 183 At-Bats.
Despite his struggles, the Phillies saw enough potential in Golson to elevate him to the Florida State League and watch him play well there. (More on Golson tomorrow in Part IV.)
Another player to note is C.J. Henry, the shortstop prospect the Phillies took from the Yankees as part of the Bobby Abreu deal. Henry was labeled a “disappointment” by observers of his progress through the Yankees system as he only hit a .237 GPA with the Yankees Single-A affiliate in Charleston before moving over to the Phillies and hitting .243. Big (six foot three, 205 lbs), Henry isn’t a speedster like Jimmy Rollins (fifteen steals in nineteen attempts in 2006, which is good but not great), more like a power shortstop in the mold of Miguel Tejada. If Henry does blossom into a power player in Lakewood or Clearwater, then the Phillies will get a gem and we can say that the Abreu deal was a major success for the Phillies.
Aside from them, the Blue Claws position players really struggled in 2006. While the strength of the Phillies pitching staff is very, very good news for the organization, which clearly needs help in this area, the weakness of the Phillies positions players is a cause for some alarm. The 2009 and 2010 teams could be very weak because of the farm system.
Tomorrow we’ll discuss the Clearwater Threshers and the Florida State League (FSL).
(2) comments
their league in ERA. J.P. Schwartz and Top Prospect Alert have ranked the Phillies Top Ten prospects and tabbed seven pitchers vs. three position players as being the Phillies top ten prospects. Baseball America is in agreement. (With the number but not necessarily the players.) We’ll look today at Single-A Lakewood, which won the South Atlantic League (SAL) on the strength of a tough pitching staff that had the league’s best ERA, best WHIP, allowed the fewest home runs and struck the most batters out. This is where the future of the Phillies rotation is being founded.Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
WHIP – Walks plus hits by innings pitched: (BB + H) / IP = WHIP
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
...and for the batters ...
Gross Productive Average (GPA): (1.8 * .OBP + .SLG) / 4 = .GPA. Invented by The Hardball Times Aaron Gleeman, GPA measures a players production by weighing his ability to get on base and hit with power. This is my preferred all-around stat.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
The 2006 Blue Claws won the SAL title, going 84-55 and winning the Championship three games to one, all the while hurling 19 shutouts in 139 games, i.e. roughly one in every seven games. Baseball America rates three of the Phillies top ten prospects as Blue Claw pitchers. Heading the list were Carlos Carrasco (#1), Josh Outman (#6), and Matt Maloney (#9). Baseball America rated Carrasco, Maloney and Outman as being the number five, nineteen and twenty prospects in the entire SAL. Top Prospect Alert agrees, ranking Carrasco and Maloney 1-2, followed by Outman at #9.
Here is how Maloney, Carrasco and Outman did in 2006:
Matthew Maloney: W-L: 16-9; ERA: 2.03; WHIP: 1.14 … Good stats. Here is what is really impressive:
FIP: 3.01
HR/9: 0.27
BB/9: 3.90
K/9: 9.60
K/BB: 2.47
The Phillies third-round pick in the 2005 draft, Maloney got to skip the GCL Phillies last season and jump to Batavia, where he also pitched well: 2-1; 3.89 ERA; 1.43 WHIP …
HR/9: 0.49
BB/9: 3.65
K/9: 8.76
K/BB: 2.40
Clearly Maloney has great stuff. He was named the 2006 SAL Pitcher of the Year and won the Blue Claws the SAL title with a brilliant 5-0 complete game victory over Augusta. In his two playoff starts Maloney was 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA with 23 strikeouts and two walks allowed.
Now consider Carlos Carrasco: W-L: 12-6; ERA: 2.26; WHIP: 1.05. Take a closer look at Carrasco’s stats …
FIP: 3.18
HR/9: 0.34
BB/9: 3.67
K/9: 8.98
K/BB: 2.45
You can already see the improvement in Carrasco: in 2005 he began by running through the Gulf Coast League (GCL), hurling five innings before going to Batavia and pitching just fifteen and a third innings. Despite having mediocre numbers at Batavia (0-3, 13.50 ERA), Carrasco went to Lakewood. There, he turned in a rough performance, going 1-7 with a 7.04 ERA. Carrasco’s stats from his 2005 campaign at Lakewood make his ’06 campaign even more impressive:
HR/9: 1.58
BB/9: 4.02
K/9: 6.61
Carrasco had a 1.64 K/BB ratio in 2005, compared to the 2.45 he had in 2006. He had great stuff and clearly put it together in 2006. Looking at the 1-10 mark Carrasco posted in ’05 with the Muckdogs and Blue Claws, I would have assumed that his career was a bust. In the minors things can change quickly … I expect to see Carlos Carrasco playing with the Phillies along with Matt Maloney in the future.
Finally, Josh Outman: 14-6; ERA: 2.95; WHIP: 1.25 … and a closer look:
FIP: 3.25
HR/9: 0.29
BB/9: 4.35
K/9: 9.33
K/BB: 2.15
Outman was the Phillies tenth pick in the ’05 draft. Like Maloney he got to skip the GCL and go straight to Batavia in 2005: 2-1; 2.76 ERA; 1.26 WHIP. He actually posted, in many respects, better stats than Maloney that season:
HR/9: 0.31
BB/9: 4.30
K/9: 9.51
K/BB: 2.21
If you are wondering, Maloney, Carrasco and Outman finished two, three and five in the race for the South Atlantic League’s ERA title. Maloney led the SAL in strikeouts, while Outman and Carrasco were second and third. This was a dominating trio of pitchers. Each one of them pitched strong in 2006. Look at their stats and compare them to the South Atlantic League averages:
ERA: 3.88
HR/9: 0.66
BB/9: 3.46
K/9: 7.56
A few things popped out at me: first, Maloney, Carrasco and Outman each allowed more walks than the league average, and in the case of Outman, it was much higher, so there are some control issues that need to be worked out. Consider also that Maloney, Carrasco and Outman all exceeded, by a wide margin, the league average for strikeouts. Maloney in particular impressed me, wiffing nearly ten batters per nine innings. These guys have great stuff but they need to be refined slightly. Reminds of me the scene in Bull Durham, when the coaches evaluate Nuke LaLoosh’s first outing for the Bulls by noting that he set two Carolina League records, one for striking out eighteen batters and one for walking eighteen. As soon as Maloney, Carrasco and Outman get a good handle on their control, they’ll pitch very well.
With the quick development of Cole Hamels, Scott Mathieson’s uncertain future and the rest of the up-and-coming pitchers in the Phillies system, might the Phillies much maligned pitching staff have a bright future? We’ll see. Certainly the strength of the Blue Claws (and the Muckdogs) in 2006 augers well for the continued development of the Phillies pitching.
As with the GCL Phillies and the Muckdogs, the same cannot be said about the Blue Claws position players. Lakewood ranked eighth in the SAL in runs scored and On-Base Percentage, tenth in slugging percentage, fourteenth in home runs, and seventh in stolen bases. I had complained about the emphasis on small ball with the GCL Phillies and Muckdogs, and I worry the same here. Despite having an average-to-mediocre offense, the Blue Claws still won the SAL thanks to their exceptional pitching.
Any discussion of the Phillies position players in Lakewood has to start with Gregory Golson, an outfielder and the Phillies first-round pick in 2004. This was Golson’s second year at Lakewood. Golson hit just a .199 GPA in 2006, a terrible number largely the product of a .258 OBP. He has some power to his swing (seven home runs), and he’s got speed (23 steals in 30 attempts, which isn’t bad given how little he got on base in 2006), but nobody who strikes out 107 times in 387 At-Bats is going to make the majors. Golson’s ’06 campaign was actually a regression from ’05, when his GPA was a much more respectable .242. Again, Golson displayed a lot of speed that season – 25 steals in 34 tries – but he K’d 106 times in 375 At-Bats. These struggles are remarkable for a player who did well in his debut in the GCL, striking out just five times in 183 At-Bats.
Despite his struggles, the Phillies saw enough potential in Golson to elevate him to the Florida State League and watch him play well there. (More on Golson tomorrow in Part IV.)
Another player to note is C.J. Henry, the shortstop prospect the Phillies took from the Yankees as part of the Bobby Abreu deal. Henry was labeled a “disappointment” by observers of his progress through the Yankees system as he only hit a .237 GPA with the Yankees Single-A affiliate in Charleston before moving over to the Phillies and hitting .243. Big (six foot three, 205 lbs), Henry isn’t a speedster like Jimmy Rollins (fifteen steals in nineteen attempts in 2006, which is good but not great), more like a power shortstop in the mold of Miguel Tejada. If Henry does blossom into a power player in Lakewood or Clearwater, then the Phillies will get a gem and we can say that the Abreu deal was a major success for the Phillies.
Aside from them, the Blue Claws position players really struggled in 2006. While the strength of the Phillies pitching staff is very, very good news for the organization, which clearly needs help in this area, the weakness of the Phillies positions players is a cause for some alarm. The 2009 and 2010 teams could be very weak because of the farm system.
Tomorrow we’ll discuss the Clearwater Threshers and the Florida State League (FSL).
Wednesday, January 24, 2007
The Farm Report, Part II (Batavia Muckdogs)
As I mentioned yesterday the Phillies minor league teams had some interesting seasons in 2007. Today I am going to discuss the Batavia Muckdogs, the Phillies 2006 short-season Single-A affiliate. As I have have noted yesterday, the Muckdogs are no longer a Phillies affiliate, having shifted to being a St. Louis Cardinals affiliate. The Phillies 2007 short-season team is going to be the Williamsport Crosscutters.The 2006 Muckdogs rode strong pitching to a respectable finish in the New York-Penn League, finishing 35-38 (.479), six and a half games out of first place. The Muckdogs had the best ERA in the New York-Penn (NYPL) League, along with the second-best WHIP and the third fewest walks allowed.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
WHIP – Walks plus hits by innings pitched: (BB + H) / IP = WHIP
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
...and for the batters...
Gross Productive Average (GPA): (1.8 * .OBP + .SLG) / 4 = .GPA. Invented by The Hardball Times Aaron Gleeman, GPA measures a players production by weighing his ability to get on base and hit with power. This is my preferred all-around stat.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
Being that the Muckdogs were a more advanced level of baseball, most of the Phillies 2006 draft picks that played college ball were sent to Batavia while the high schoolers like first rounders Adrian Cardenas and Kyle Drabek were sent to the Gulf Coast League (GCL). E.g., third-round pick Jason Donald, fifth-round pick Quintin Berry, sixth-round pick Daniel Brauer, seventh-round pick Charlie Yarbrough, ninth-round pick Andrew Cruse, tenth-round pick Samuel Walls, etc. You get the idea. All of those guys played college ball and got to bypass the GCL.
The only exception was Andrew Carpenter, the Phillies third overall pick in the draft, who hurled for the Muckdogs and was partly responsible for the excellent showing they had. According to J.P. Schwartz and Top Prospect Alert, Carpenter will be the Phillies eighth-best prospect in 2007. Carpenter threw just three innings in the CGL before being elevated and hurling another eleven and two-thirds for the Muckdogs. Taken as a whole, Carpenter got off to a good start in ’06, allowing just one earned run and getting sixteen strikeouts to five walks. . I expect Carpenter to be in either Williamsport or Lakewood in 2007, gaining more experience.
After Carpenter was Edgar Garcia, a free agent the Phillies signed in November of 2004, and currently ranks as Baseball America's fourth-best Phillies prospect. Garcia was just 3-5 in 2006, but his 2.98 ERA (3.52 FIP) was very good and he displayed a lot of impressive skills, including a reluctance to surrender walks (1.36 BB/9), and an ability to get strikeouts (6.24 K/9). Garcia is a good bet to advance to Lakewood and play with the Blue Claws in 2007.
The Phillies strongest pitchers, after Carpenter and Garcia, were Brauer and Cruse, 2006 draft picks. They helped lead the Muckdogs to a league-best 2.86 ERA:
NYPL ERA:
1. Batavia: 2.86
2. Brooklyn: 2.96
3. Tri-City: 3.03
4. Aberdeen: 3.08
5. Auburn: 3.12
When I tabulated the numbers and figured out what each team’s FIP was, the numbers changed a little:
NYPL FIP:
1. Hudson Valley: 3.01
2. Oneonta: 3.11
3. Batavia: 3.17
4. Brooklyn: 3.20
5. Staten Island: 3.27
To give you an idea about what a big jump Hudson Valley made (and how bad their defense must have been in 2006), Hudson Valley ranked tenth of fourteen teams in ERA and first in FIP. Hudson Valley also tied Batavia for the best WHIP in the NYPL. Oneonta went from sixth to second.
The Muckdogs strength was that they were the third-most stingy team to get a walk from, while being fairly average everywhere else. Here is how the Muckdogs did vs. the league averages:
NYPL / Muckdogs
ERA: 2.86 / 3.34
HR/9: 0.39 / 0.37
BB/9: 2.71 / 3.01
K/9: 7.96 / 7.53
K/BB: 2.93 / 2.50
A little worse on the home runs, a little better on the strikeouts and substantially better on the walks.
Here is how the Muckdogs rotation looked:
FIP ERA
Brauer: 2.33
Cruse: 3.29
Garcia: 3.52
Concepcion: 3.61
Dubee: 3.93
Brauer, a sixth-round pick from Northwestern, did particularly well with the Muckdogs:
W-L: 3-4
ERA: 1.96
HR/9: 0.16
BB/9: 2.95
K/9: 10.63
K/BB: 3.61
I don’t really think that Brauer was particularly heralded as being an exceptional talent, but the stats seem to suggest that he’s got a bright, bright future ahead of him. Right behind him was Andrew Cruse, a University of South Carolina (fake U.S.C.) graduate:
W-L: 4-4
ERA: 2.57
HR/9: 0.27
BB/9: 2.57
K/9: 6.48
K/BB: 2.53
The team’s workhorse, Alexander Concepcion, an amateur free agent signed back in ’03, hurled 83 & 2/3 innings, splitting twelve decisions:
W-L: 6-6
ERA: 3.76
HR/9: 0.86
BB/9: 1.83
K/9: 7.74
K/BB: 4.24
Certainly I think Concepcion’s strikeout/walk ratio is beyond impressive. It’s out of sight. This is a player with real control to his pitches and seems to have a promising future. If he could lower his home runs allowed, he’d be a lock to make the Phillies in 2009 or 2010. The Muckdogs rotation seemed to play well in 2006, so I’d expect to hear from at least a few of these players in the future.
Offensively, the less said about the Muckdogs, the better. The Muckdogs finished tenth in the NYPL in runs scored, a product of being eleventh in the league in On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage. You won’t win many games that way. In a troubling development, as I noted yesterday in my post on the GCL Phillies, the Muckdogs were second in the NYPL in stolen bases, perhaps portending a trend towards small ball in the Phillies organization. Minor leaguers aren’t typically big power sluggers down in Single-A, but the Muckdogs 19 home runs in 73 games is a surprise. They ranked – you guessed it – eleventh in ISO as well at .083, just a few ticks better than Vermont’s .078, worst in the league.
The Muckdogs best offensive player was, without question, Jason Donald, a shortstop from the University of Arizona and the Phillies third-round selection (97th overall), got to skip rookie league GCL and join the Muckdogs. Donald impressed, with a .347 OBP and twelve steals in thirteen attempts. He was the Phillies fourth overall selection.
There was quite a lot of speed on the Muckdogs roster. In addition to Donald, the Muckdogs also saw Zachary Penpraise, a thirteenth-round pick and fellow shortstop, swipe 19 of 25 attempts, and Quintin Berry, an outfielder from San Diego State University, swipe 19 of 23. As a team, the Muckdogs ran 113 times in 73 game and were successful 75% of the time. I guess we shall see if this portends a trend towards small ball.
Tomorrow we shall discuss the Lakewood Blue Claws, the Phillies most successful minor league team.
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
The $85 Million-Dollar Man
I saw that the Phillies inked a seven-year, $85 million dollar deal with Chase Utley to have him play second base for the Phillies. Chase gets a two million dollar signing bonus and then has his salary staggered from there. Here is how the deal basically breaks down:
Salary / Age
2007: $4.5 million / 28
2008: $7.5 million / 29
2009: $11.0 million / 30
2010: $15.0 million / 31
2011: $15.0 million / 32
2012: $15.0 million / 33
2013: $15.0 million / 34
When I began to look at the deal I had a few thoughts … First, note that Chase made a paltry $500,000 in 2006. Okay, that’s not paltry to you or me, but well below market value. Chase would probably have made much more than that through salary arbitration, but his 2007 salary would have been much closer to that than what’s he’s getting.
So what are the Phillies getting? A player who …
…was the second-best base-runner in baseball in 2006 (see, the base-running section of the Bill James Handbook)
…was the third-best defensive second baseman in 2006 (see, John Dewan’s Plus / Minus leaders in the Bill James Handbook)
… had his second consecutive season with 100+ RBI and 100+ Runs Created. Chase also scored 131 runs.
… got 203 hits, 40 doubles, 32 home runs and stole 15 bases.
… hit a .302 GPA and a .218 ISO.
… was basically the best second baseman in the National League.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
Gross Productive Average (GPA): (1.8 * .OBP + .SLG) / 4 = .GPA. Invented by The Hardball Times Aaron Gleeman, GPA measures a players production by weighing his ability to get on base and hit with power. This is my preferred all-around stat.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). If you use ESPN’s version be advised that it is pitifully is out-of-date, however. James adjusted RC after the 2004 season ended.
The deal is a smart one, in my judgment. Wisely, the Phillies locked Chase into a long-term deal that guarantees he and Jimmy Rollins will be working the pivot until 2010 or 2011. Along with Ryan Howard (not eligible for free agency until 2011) the Phillies infield is 75% set for the next half-decade. While it is true that Chase wouldn’t have been eligible for free agency until 2009, the Phillies now know that through the productive years of his career, Chase Utley is a Phillie. Notice when the deal terminates: 2013, when Chase will be 34 and his skills will likely be in decline.
Did the Phillies pay too much? I doubt it. Look at the deal the Houston Astros gave Carlos Lee: six years and $100 mil for an outfielder with bad defensive skills and who will be 37 when the deal expires. The Astros agreed to pay Lee – a pure hitter – about $17 million a year when he’ll be in the danger zone of his career, his mid-to-late 30’s. The Phillies will be paying Chase Utley much less to play a much more important defensive position turning a period of time where he is guaranteed to be much, much more productive.
This was a great, very savvy deal made by Pat Gillick.
(3) comments
Salary / Age
2007: $4.5 million / 28
2008: $7.5 million / 29
2009: $11.0 million / 30
2010: $15.0 million / 31
2011: $15.0 million / 32
2012: $15.0 million / 33
2013: $15.0 million / 34
When I began to look at the deal I had a few thoughts … First, note that Chase made a paltry $500,000 in 2006. Okay, that’s not paltry to you or me, but well below market value. Chase would probably have made much more than that through salary arbitration, but his 2007 salary would have been much closer to that than what’s he’s getting.
So what are the Phillies getting? A player who …
…was the second-best base-runner in baseball in 2006 (see, the base-running section of the Bill James Handbook)
…was the third-best defensive second baseman in 2006 (see, John Dewan’s Plus / Minus leaders in the Bill James Handbook)
… had his second consecutive season with 100+ RBI and 100+ Runs Created. Chase also scored 131 runs.
… got 203 hits, 40 doubles, 32 home runs and stole 15 bases.
… hit a .302 GPA and a .218 ISO.
… was basically the best second baseman in the National League.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
Gross Productive Average (GPA): (1.8 * .OBP + .SLG) / 4 = .GPA. Invented by The Hardball Times Aaron Gleeman, GPA measures a players production by weighing his ability to get on base and hit with power. This is my preferred all-around stat.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). If you use ESPN’s version be advised that it is pitifully is out-of-date, however. James adjusted RC after the 2004 season ended.
The deal is a smart one, in my judgment. Wisely, the Phillies locked Chase into a long-term deal that guarantees he and Jimmy Rollins will be working the pivot until 2010 or 2011. Along with Ryan Howard (not eligible for free agency until 2011) the Phillies infield is 75% set for the next half-decade. While it is true that Chase wouldn’t have been eligible for free agency until 2009, the Phillies now know that through the productive years of his career, Chase Utley is a Phillie. Notice when the deal terminates: 2013, when Chase will be 34 and his skills will likely be in decline.
Did the Phillies pay too much? I doubt it. Look at the deal the Houston Astros gave Carlos Lee: six years and $100 mil for an outfielder with bad defensive skills and who will be 37 when the deal expires. The Astros agreed to pay Lee – a pure hitter – about $17 million a year when he’ll be in the danger zone of his career, his mid-to-late 30’s. The Phillies will be paying Chase Utley much less to play a much more important defensive position turning a period of time where he is guaranteed to be much, much more productive.
This was a great, very savvy deal made by Pat Gillick.
Monday, January 22, 2007
The Farm Report, Part I (GCL Phillies)
As many of the readers of this blog know, I typically don’t focus on minor league players or discuss the progress minor leaguers make through the system until they arrive in Philly. Simply put, I didn’t have Cole Hamels on my radar until he arrived on the team and they gave him his first start. While nearly every other blog was buzzing about Hamels and his imminent impact on the Phillies I was largely oblivious and generally missed one of the biggest Phillies stories of 2006.
After Ryan Howard and Bobby Abreu’s departure, the biggest story of the Phillies season was the unexpected contributions the rookies made in 2006: Chris Coste and Carlos Ruiz were the Phillies de facto starting catchers for much of the season and both played very well in addition to Hamels splashy arrival. The Phillies also got to see players like Danny Sandoval, Chris Roberson and Michael Bourn play.
I am vowing to pay more attention to the Phillies farm clubs and the players that come up this season. To that end, I intend to make The Farm Report, a monthly recap of the Phillies minor league doings, a regular part of A Citizens Blog in 2007. Starting today I intend to discuss a little of what happened with the Phillies farm teams in 2006 and give some ideas about what 2007 holds. We’ll start with the Gulf Coast League (GCL) Phillies.
In case you are wondering, the Phillies minor league situation is somewhat in flux. For years … well, more specifically … since 1989 the Phillies Triple-A affiliate has been the Scranton Red Barons, but the Phillies broke off that agreement this season and bought the Ottawa Lynx as their Triple-A team in the International League (IL). The Lynx will play in their current home of Ottawa before moving to Allentown to become the Lehigh Valley IronPigs in 2008. Not the greatest name, I grant you, but one that acknowledges the Allentown area’s iron industry and might be kind of fun.
After the Lynx / IronPigs are the the Eastern League Reading Phillies, the Phillies Double-A affiliate, followed by the Phillies Single-A affiliates: the Clearwater Threshers of the Florida State League (advanced Single-A ball), the Lakewood Blue Claws of the South Atlantic League, and the Williamsport Crosscutters of the New York-Penn League (short season Single-A ball). The GCL Phillies also are a rookie-league (Gulf Coast League) entry-level team the Phillies have. The Crosscutters are, by the way, a new team. The Phillies old short season single-A team, the Batavia Muckdogs, are now an affiliate of the St. Louis Cardinals. The Muckdogs had been a Phillies affiliate since 1989 as well. Here is basically how the hierarchy goes:
1. Ottawa Lynx (AAA)
2. Reading Phillies (AA)
3. Clearwater Threshers (A+)
4. Lakewood Blue Claws (A)
5. Williamsport Crosscutters (A-)
6. Gulf Coast League Phillies (R)
Now there are other leagues like the Arizona Winter League and the Mexican League, but all of that is way too complicated to explain. Those six teams are going to be what we pay attention to in 2007.
We’ll start with the GCL Phillies. It was not a good season for the GCL Phillies. They finished dead-last in the GCL North at 18-31, 13 & ½ games behind the GCL Tigers.
The Phillies ranked dead-last in the GCL in runs scored with 180, 19 fewer than the next-worst team, the GCL Marlins. The GCL Phillies were also dead-last in OBP and second-to-last in slugging percentage. They were, however, tops in the GCL in stolen bases with 93. Goes to show you: small ball doesn’t consistently score runs. There seems to be an emphasis on speed in the Phillies system, which I hope does not portend to trend towards small ball in the future. I’ll discuss that a little more when I talk about Michael Bourn and the Red Barons, but here I’ll note that the GCL Phillies had four of the top fourteen GCL base-stealers on the roster in 2006.
Pitching-wise, there wasn’t much better news. The GCL Phillies ranked second-to-last in terms of Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). They accumulated the fewest strikeouts in the GCL as well. It was a grim season and hopefully not an indication of the future direction of the Phillies minor league system.
We’ll focus mainly on the performance of two players here: Kyle Drabek and Adrian Cardenas. Baseball America ranks Drabek and Cardenas as the Phillies number two and three prospects respectively, behind Lakewood Blue Claws (Single-A) pitcher Carlos Carrasco.
Drabek, the
Phillies first choice in the draft (eighteenth overall) and son of former major leaguer Doug Drabek, had a rough start to his professional baseball career in the GCL. Drabek was a two-time Baseball America First-Team All-American, and the Louisville Slugger Pitcher of the Year, having gone 14-0 with a 0.92 ERA in 2006 as a pitcher for his high school’s baseball team.
Unfortunately, he started his minor league career by going 1-3 with a 7.71 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP in his first six GCL starts. Drabek allowed two home runs (0.77 HR/9), which isn’t as impressive as it sounds: the GCL is very pitching-friendly. In twenty-three and two-thirds of an inning Drabek allowed eleven walks (4.24 BB/9) and fourteen strikeouts (5.40 K/9). Drabek struggled badly and never left the GCL. He ought to improve and move onto Williamsport in 2007 or he might be a flop.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
WHIP – Walks plus hits by innings pitched: (BB + H) / IP = WHIP
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
and for batters...
Gross Productive Average (GPA): (1.8 * .OBP + .SLG) / 4 = .GPA. Invented by The Hardball Times Aaron Gleeman, GPA measures a players production by weighing his ability to get on base and hit with power. This is my preferred all-around stat.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Adrian Cardenas, a shortstop, was the Phillies second pick in the 2006 draft, after Drabek. Cardenas was named the Louisville Slugger Player of the Year and the Baseball America High School player of the year, so people have recognized his skills. The thirty-seventh overall pick of the draft, Cardenas had a .384 OBP which was good for fourth-best in the GCL. Cardenas had a .283 GPA, much, much better than the team average of .210, with thirteen steals in sixteen attempts. Cardenas seems to have good contact skills (just 28 strikeouts in 154 At-Bats, a 1.65 K/BB ratio, better than the league average of 2.22), and some speed. He performed so well he was named to the 2006 GCL All-Star team. He seems to have a bright future ahead of himself.
It will be interesting to see if Cardenas and Drabek develop into major leaguers: from 1996 to 2002 nearly all of the Phillies top picks made the team:
2002: Cole Hamels
2001: Gavin Floyd
2000: Chase Utley
1999: Brett Myers
1998: Pat Burrell
1997: J.D. Drew
1996: Adam Eaton
Naturally Drew isn’t a Phillie (yeah, bad karma there), but he is a starter with the Red Sox, and all of those others players made the Phillies (in the case of Adam Eaton it just took a while) and played at Citizens Bank Ballpark.
Andrew Carpenter, the Phillies second-round pick and third overall selection hurled just three innings before being promoted to Batavia. There really isn’t a whole lot to say about the Phillies pitchers in the GCL: eleventh-round draft pick Jarrod Freeman was the staff workhorse, going 1-2 with a 3.38 ERA in 45 & 1/3 innings of work. Matthew Olson, the team’s thirteenth selection in the 2005 draft, hurled the most innings on the team after Freeman, throwing 41 & 1/3, with a 2-4 record and a 3.48 ERA. Olson went 3-3 with a 3.07 ERA with the GCL Phillies in ’05 as well. Nineteenth-rounder Darren Byrd threw 36 & 1/3 innings and went 2-1 with a 3.22 ERA.
FIP ERA:
Freeman: 3.14
Byrd: 3.69
Olson: 3.85
Drabek: 4.91
Team: 4.07
League: 3.63
Other than Freeman, none of the Phillies GCL pitchers did much in 2006.
After Cardenas, the GCL Phillies position players dropped off dramatically: Outfielder Dominic Brown, the Phillies twentieth pick., displayed some speed, getting thirteen steals in sixteen attempts, but his .292 OBP kept him off the bases too much. If he wants to make it to Williamsport and Lakewood, he’ll have to raise that OBP by sixty or seventy points. The only player on the GCL roster who came close to Cardenas was fourth-rounder D’Arby Myers, an outfielder who had a .353 OBP and stole eleven bases in fifteen tries. Expect to see Myers and Cardenas in Williamsport this season.
That’s Part I, tomorrow we’ll discuss the season the Batavia Muckdogs had in the New York-Penn League.
(2) comments
After Ryan Howard and Bobby Abreu’s departure, the biggest story of the Phillies season was the unexpected contributions the rookies made in 2006: Chris Coste and Carlos Ruiz were the Phillies de facto starting catchers for much of the season and both played very well in addition to Hamels splashy arrival. The Phillies also got to see players like Danny Sandoval, Chris Roberson and Michael Bourn play.
I am vowing to pay more attention to the Phillies farm clubs and the players that come up this season. To that end, I intend to make The Farm Report, a monthly recap of the Phillies minor league doings, a regular part of A Citizens Blog in 2007. Starting today I intend to discuss a little of what happened with the Phillies farm teams in 2006 and give some ideas about what 2007 holds. We’ll start with the Gulf Coast League (GCL) Phillies.
In case you are wondering, the Phillies minor league situation is somewhat in flux. For years … well, more specifically … since 1989 the Phillies Triple-A affiliate has been the Scranton Red Barons, but the Phillies broke off that agreement this season and bought the Ottawa Lynx as their Triple-A team in the International League (IL). The Lynx will play in their current home of Ottawa before moving to Allentown to become the Lehigh Valley IronPigs in 2008. Not the greatest name, I grant you, but one that acknowledges the Allentown area’s iron industry and might be kind of fun.
After the Lynx / IronPigs are the the Eastern League Reading Phillies, the Phillies Double-A affiliate, followed by the Phillies Single-A affiliates: the Clearwater Threshers of the Florida State League (advanced Single-A ball), the Lakewood Blue Claws of the South Atlantic League, and the Williamsport Crosscutters of the New York-Penn League (short season Single-A ball). The GCL Phillies also are a rookie-league (Gulf Coast League) entry-level team the Phillies have. The Crosscutters are, by the way, a new team. The Phillies old short season single-A team, the Batavia Muckdogs, are now an affiliate of the St. Louis Cardinals. The Muckdogs had been a Phillies affiliate since 1989 as well. Here is basically how the hierarchy goes:
1. Ottawa Lynx (AAA)
2. Reading Phillies (AA)
3. Clearwater Threshers (A+)
4. Lakewood Blue Claws (A)
5. Williamsport Crosscutters (A-)
6. Gulf Coast League Phillies (R)
Now there are other leagues like the Arizona Winter League and the Mexican League, but all of that is way too complicated to explain. Those six teams are going to be what we pay attention to in 2007.
We’ll start with the GCL Phillies. It was not a good season for the GCL Phillies. They finished dead-last in the GCL North at 18-31, 13 & ½ games behind the GCL Tigers.
The Phillies ranked dead-last in the GCL in runs scored with 180, 19 fewer than the next-worst team, the GCL Marlins. The GCL Phillies were also dead-last in OBP and second-to-last in slugging percentage. They were, however, tops in the GCL in stolen bases with 93. Goes to show you: small ball doesn’t consistently score runs. There seems to be an emphasis on speed in the Phillies system, which I hope does not portend to trend towards small ball in the future. I’ll discuss that a little more when I talk about Michael Bourn and the Red Barons, but here I’ll note that the GCL Phillies had four of the top fourteen GCL base-stealers on the roster in 2006.
Pitching-wise, there wasn’t much better news. The GCL Phillies ranked second-to-last in terms of Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). They accumulated the fewest strikeouts in the GCL as well. It was a grim season and hopefully not an indication of the future direction of the Phillies minor league system.
We’ll focus mainly on the performance of two players here: Kyle Drabek and Adrian Cardenas. Baseball America ranks Drabek and Cardenas as the Phillies number two and three prospects respectively, behind Lakewood Blue Claws (Single-A) pitcher Carlos Carrasco.
Drabek, the
Phillies first choice in the draft (eighteenth overall) and son of former major leaguer Doug Drabek, had a rough start to his professional baseball career in the GCL. Drabek was a two-time Baseball America First-Team All-American, and the Louisville Slugger Pitcher of the Year, having gone 14-0 with a 0.92 ERA in 2006 as a pitcher for his high school’s baseball team.Unfortunately, he started his minor league career by going 1-3 with a 7.71 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP in his first six GCL starts. Drabek allowed two home runs (0.77 HR/9), which isn’t as impressive as it sounds: the GCL is very pitching-friendly. In twenty-three and two-thirds of an inning Drabek allowed eleven walks (4.24 BB/9) and fourteen strikeouts (5.40 K/9). Drabek struggled badly and never left the GCL. He ought to improve and move onto Williamsport in 2007 or he might be a flop.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
WHIP – Walks plus hits by innings pitched: (BB + H) / IP = WHIP
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
and for batters...
Gross Productive Average (GPA): (1.8 * .OBP + .SLG) / 4 = .GPA. Invented by The Hardball Times Aaron Gleeman, GPA measures a players production by weighing his ability to get on base and hit with power. This is my preferred all-around stat.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Adrian Cardenas, a shortstop, was the Phillies second pick in the 2006 draft, after Drabek. Cardenas was named the Louisville Slugger Player of the Year and the Baseball America High School player of the year, so people have recognized his skills. The thirty-seventh overall pick of the draft, Cardenas had a .384 OBP which was good for fourth-best in the GCL. Cardenas had a .283 GPA, much, much better than the team average of .210, with thirteen steals in sixteen attempts. Cardenas seems to have good contact skills (just 28 strikeouts in 154 At-Bats, a 1.65 K/BB ratio, better than the league average of 2.22), and some speed. He performed so well he was named to the 2006 GCL All-Star team. He seems to have a bright future ahead of himself.
It will be interesting to see if Cardenas and Drabek develop into major leaguers: from 1996 to 2002 nearly all of the Phillies top picks made the team:
2002: Cole Hamels
2001: Gavin Floyd
2000: Chase Utley
1999: Brett Myers
1998: Pat Burrell
1997: J.D. Drew
1996: Adam Eaton
Naturally Drew isn’t a Phillie (yeah, bad karma there), but he is a starter with the Red Sox, and all of those others players made the Phillies (in the case of Adam Eaton it just took a while) and played at Citizens Bank Ballpark.
Andrew Carpenter, the Phillies second-round pick and third overall selection hurled just three innings before being promoted to Batavia. There really isn’t a whole lot to say about the Phillies pitchers in the GCL: eleventh-round draft pick Jarrod Freeman was the staff workhorse, going 1-2 with a 3.38 ERA in 45 & 1/3 innings of work. Matthew Olson, the team’s thirteenth selection in the 2005 draft, hurled the most innings on the team after Freeman, throwing 41 & 1/3, with a 2-4 record and a 3.48 ERA. Olson went 3-3 with a 3.07 ERA with the GCL Phillies in ’05 as well. Nineteenth-rounder Darren Byrd threw 36 & 1/3 innings and went 2-1 with a 3.22 ERA.
FIP ERA:
Freeman: 3.14
Byrd: 3.69
Olson: 3.85
Drabek: 4.91
Team: 4.07
League: 3.63
Other than Freeman, none of the Phillies GCL pitchers did much in 2006.
After Cardenas, the GCL Phillies position players dropped off dramatically: Outfielder Dominic Brown, the Phillies twentieth pick., displayed some speed, getting thirteen steals in sixteen attempts, but his .292 OBP kept him off the bases too much. If he wants to make it to Williamsport and Lakewood, he’ll have to raise that OBP by sixty or seventy points. The only player on the GCL roster who came close to Cardenas was fourth-rounder D’Arby Myers, an outfielder who had a .353 OBP and stole eleven bases in fifteen tries. Expect to see Myers and Cardenas in Williamsport this season.
That’s Part I, tomorrow we’ll discuss the season the Batavia Muckdogs had in the New York-Penn League.
