Michael/Male/26-30. Lives in United States/Pennsylvania/Wexford/Christopher Wren, speaks English. Spends 20% of daytime online. Uses a Fast (128k-512k) connection. And likes baseball /politics.
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United States, Pennsylvania, Wexford, Christopher Wren, English, Michael, Male, 26-30, baseball , politics.

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Brewers - Phillies Musings 

The Phillies complete a quickie two game series with the Brewers tonight before journeying to the Three Rivers city to play the Pittsburgh Pirates. I'll be attending Sunday's game, which will hopefully not be a rain-out or rain-delay (as all Phillies - Pirates games I attend seem to be).

Last night's game with the Brewers sums up a lot of the season so far: Jimmy Rollins is out (rumor as it with a broken foot), Ryan Howard is struggling, and Chase Utley and Pat Burrell are carrying the team. Burrell hit his eighth home run and Utley hit his tenth last night. Sadly, the Phillies couldn't close the deal, losing 5-4 as Cole Hamels surrendered two runs at the bottom of the eighth inning to let the Brewers slip by with a comeback victory. Today the Brewers and Phillies play at 1:00 PM and Ryan Howard won't be in the lineup.

Phillies - Pirates Thoughts: the Pirates threaten the 1933 - 1948 Phillies place in the record books as they approach their sixteenth consecutive losing season. For those unfamiliar with Phillies history: the '33 - '48 team suffered through sixteen consecutive seasons of losing in a particularly ugly period of the team's history. The 1941 team lost 111 games, an impressive feat in an era when teams played 152 games. The '33 - '48 Phillies lost 100 or more games seven times. The '93 - '08 Pirates threaten that mark of futility this season. Since they lost the seventh game of the 1992 NLCS to the Atlanta Braves (how exactly did Sid Bream beat that throw from Barry Bonds?) the Pirates have been in a spiral of incompetence. The team periodically waivers from trying to rebuild with the farm system (a strategy undermined by the fact that the team drafts poorly) and trying to add declining veterans (see, Matt Morris) at the expense of developing players. The Pirates strategy is baffling to understand and it ought not be surprising that the team has throughly alienated its fan-base these last fifteen years.

The 2008 Pirates have some talent but they are hopelessly out-classed by the Phillies. I had proposed the Pirates as a dark-horse contender in the weak N.L. Central in my season preview but they've utterly flopped thus far this season, posting a 9-12 record thus far this season, six games behind the Cubs. The Pirates problem is that while they have a good pitching staff they are undermined by the fact that their position players cannot hit and cannot field. The Pirates currently rank thirteenth in the N.L. in OPS at .678, while the Phillies rank fourth in OPS at .802. The Pirates don't set the table much: they have an OBP of .310, compared to the Phillies .338. And when runners get on they don't close the deal: the Pirates Isolated Power at the plate is a puny .123 compared with the Phillies .203. The Pirates have hit 17 home runs to the Phillies 37. Chase Utley alone has ten home runs. Both the Phillies and Pirates hit below-average with runners in scoring position (BA/RISP):

Phillies: .240 BA/RISP
Pirates: .249 BA/RISP
N.L. Avg.: .254 BA/RISP

Although the Phillies inability to hit with runners in scoring position isn't lethal to their ability to score runs because they hit with so much power at the plate, whereas the Pirates struggles are compounded by their inability to hit home runs. While Jason Bay (.409 OBP) is hitting well, his four home runs have yielded just seven RBI, a testament to how little the Pirates do to set the table. Adam LaRoche, the Pirates first baseman, has been a disaster so far this season: .127 Batting Average, just one home run. Until LaRoche hits, the Pirates are sunk.

While I've bemoaned the Phillies lack of speed thus far this season (ten steals, two triples), the Pirates resemble some guy sitting on his couch watching TV in his underwear while eating a big bowl of fritos. They are the slowest team in the N.L., having stolen just six bases (the Astros Michael Bourn alone has thirteen) which is tied for the worst in the N.L., along with just one triple, the worst in the N.L.

The Pirates rotation, which I felt would be a strength, has been a major disappointment:

Ian Snell: 2-1, 4.45 ERA
Zack Duke: 0-1, 4.37 ERA
Paul Maholm: 1-2, 4.22 ERA
Matt Morris: 0-3, 9.15 ERA
Tom Gorzelanny: 1-2, 9.35 ERA

The Pirates team ERA is a whopping 5.66, by far the worst in the N.L. The Pirates hurlers are worst in the N.L. in terms of getting strikeouts (5.1 K/9) and have allowed far too many home runs and doubles to be hit off them. The team's .468 slugging percentage allowed is second-worst in the N.L. to the Florida Marlins. The Pirates 4.66 FIP is, again, worst in the N.L.

As you've noticed, the Pirates FIP is a full run better than their ERA, so one of the problems is that the Pirates fielders are simply abysmal: the team's .654 Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER - the percentage of balls put into play that fielders turn into outs) is the worst in the N.L. and sum up a major reason why the Pirates pitchers cannot develop: pitchers not confident that the fielders can take care of balls put into play tend to drive themselves nuts trying to strike each and every guy out. The Pirates inability to develop these position players is a major reason why their talented young pitchers have struggled.

Politics ... The eyes of America were on Pennsylvania Tuesday night. I voted in the Primary Election and I hope everyone registered as a Republican or a Democrat did the same. I was very surprised by the outcome: I truly expected to see Barak Obama close the deal and sink Hillary Clinton's Presidential campaign. Instead Hillary won a solid victory, 55%-45%. What was a major surprise to me was how poorly Obama did in the Philadelphia suburbs. He won Delaware and Chester Counties with just 55% of the vote and lost Montgomery County 51% to 49%. The fact that Obama lost Montgomery County, with its educated, white-collar voters - the very picture of the Obamacrat - is troubling for his campaign. John McCain is probably looking at swatches for the drapes in the Oval Office right now. On to North Carolina & Indiana ...

I'll have a few more musings tomorrow...


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Tuesday, April 22, 2008

The Rematch: Rockies vs. Phillies 

Last night's 9-5 victory over the Rockies was sweet revenge. Too bad we couldn't move that game to last October ... Another rough start for Kyle Kendrick though: 5 IP, 5 ER, 2 K, 2 BB, 2 HR. Kendrick's style, allowing the hitters to make contact and relying on the Phillies fielders, is starting to really bite him in the a--, because now when hitters make contact they are launching home runs. He also needs to avoid issuing these walks. You can get by without getting a lot of strikeouts, but nobody can survive a 1:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, much less Kendrick's 0.72 K/BB ratio (11 walks, 8 strikeouts) ... On the plus side, the rest of the Phillies pitching staff was fine. The relief corps threw the last four innings and allowed just one hit, zero runs, and got five strikeouts.

We're roughly one-eighth of the way through the 2008 baseball season and I thought that I might comment on some things are surprising to me and perhaps to others as well. We'll start with ...

The Not-So-Improved Nats. The Nationals, supposedly new and improved with the acquisitions of Lasting Milledge, Paul Lo Duca, and Elijah Dukes and their new multi-million dollar digs in our Nation's Capitol were supposed to compete. Instead Dukes really hasn't played, Lo Duca stinks (.200 Batting Average), Milledge has been ok (.345 OBP) and superstar Ryan Zimmerman has struggled (2 home runs, 7 RBI, .244 OBP). Strike that. Struggled badly. Meanwhile Nats pitchers have been as bad as advertised, with a 4.73 ERA.

Thunder from the Desert. The 13-5 Diamondbacks are easily the best team in the National League right now and probably in baseball. Forget the Mets, the D-Backs might have bought themselves a pennant when they teamed Dan Haren (3-0, 1.80 ERA, 4 Quality Starts, 6.83 K/9) with Brandon Webb (4-0, 1.86 ERA, 4 Quality Starts, 6.84 ERA). Along with Micah Owings (3-0, 2.29 ERA, 3 Quality Starts, 8.69 K/9), the D-Backs are easily the most deadly team in the majors in pitching. Their offensive unit is playing well too: they've scored 116 runs, which puts them on pace to score 900 or so. Eric Byrnes (.908 OPS) is great, but Justin Upton (5 Home Runs, 13 RBI, 1.068 OPS) has been fantastic.

Injuries. At the moment the Phillies feature a lot of players sitting on the Disabled List. Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Chris Snelling are the notables. Snelling himself, ironically, had been recalled from Lehigh Valley to fill-in for Victorino.

Speed. Thus far in 2008, the Phillies have stolen eight of eleven bases in twenty games, a pretty lethargic total for a team that really cut-loose in 2007, stealing 138 bases in 157 attempts, a success rate of 87.9%. The 138 steals were second-best in the National League after the Mets 200. The Phillies also led the N.L. in triples with 41. Like many sabremetricians, I am distainful of the "small ball"-types that chirp about how teams have to manufacture runs with bunts and steals and the like to score runs. I am a big believer in the idea that the home run is the most efficient means of scoring runs and winning baseball games. However, I do credit the resurgence in interest in speed with playing a major factor in the Phillies 2007 campaign for the N.L. East crowd. Under the careful instruction of First Base Coach Davey Lopes, the Phillies were faster on the bases in 2007. Jimmy Rollins hit 20 triples and stole 41 bases. Victorino hit 3 triples and stole 37 bases in 41 tries. Michael Bourn hit 3 triples and stole 18 bases in 19 tries. That extra-dimension of speed played a major factor in helping the Phillies win the N.L. East.

Fast forward to 2008. In the off-season Davey Lopes was diagnosed with cancer and is currently undergoing treatment. Since undergoing surgery on March 17th he hasn't been with the team and isn't expected to return until May. The team dealt Michael Bourn to the Houston Astros as part of the Brad Lidge / Eric Bruntlett deal. As an Astro, Bourn has successfully stolen eleven of eleven bases, though his absurdly low batting average (.211) constrains his effectiveness. With Jimmy Rollins and Victorino out of the lineup with injuries, the Phillies are left without any major weapons on the bases. Thus far in 2008 they've stolen eight of eleven bases and have hit 2 triples in twenty games. At their current pace the Phillies will hit half as many triples as they hit last year and will steal just 65 bases, or roughly half what they did in 2007.

Power. Some idiot sniped at me when I did a talk-back for another blog about a prediction I had made that Chase Utley was capable of making a run at the triple crown. Apparently this guy thought I was an idiot for believing that Chase Utley could out-homer David Wright, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and the rest. Well ... I looked at the numbers this morning and Chase Utley leads the major leagues with nine home runs. He's also hitting .356 and has 18 RBI (the N.L. leader has 19) ... Pat Burrell has been great too, having hit seven home runs and nineteen RBI. Burrell's 15 walks also give him an astonishing .476 OBP to go along with all of that power ... Chris Coste has made the most of his playing time and owns the team's best OPS: 1.205. What really impresses me about Coste is that he's drawn four walks and has struckout just twice. He's really making a powerful argument that the Phillies ought to play him more and make him their #1 pinch-hitter ... The Phillies are really packing a punch this season. They've hit 33 home runs so far and their team isolated power at the plate is a robust .200 ... Isolated Power is where you eliminate singles from slugging percentage by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage ... I am only concerned that their power is going for naught as they have a pedestrian .337 OBP, which is just seventh in the N.L. As a consequence they've scored just 94 runs to the D-Backs 120.

Pitching. I'm not saying that the Phillies pitchers are as good as the D-Backs, but the team ERA os 3.61 is very, very respectable and suggests that the Phillies are making strides. The rotation is pretty predictable: Hamels (2-2, 1.86 ERA) and Myers (2-1, 3.96 ERA) are both terrific, while Kendrick (1-2, 5.59 ERA) is struggling and Adam Eaton (0-0, 4.74 ERA) and Jamie Moyer (1-1, 4.79 ERA) have both been solid. In Eaton's case, "solid" is a major improvement. What is really startling to me is how well the bullpen has done. Rudy Seanez, Brad Lidge and J.C. Romero all own ERAs of 0.00, and Chad Durbin's 0.64 ERA is right there with them. I'm pleasantly surprised.

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