A CITIZEN'S BLOG

You might have noticed that I failed to produce a post yesterday. Sorry. Morning storm knocked out my power and kept me in bed until it was time to go to work. I had to sprint to get to work on time ...

I have a couple of topics I want to touch on briefly today. They are ...

1. Chase Utley: MVP? Well, right now Utley is the run-away leader in the National League voting for second base, so he'll definitely be starting at the 2008 All-Star Game for the National League. The triple crown is a long stop for him (his .311 batting average is thirteenth in the N.L.), but his 21 home runs lead the N.L. and his 56 RBI tie him for second in the N.L., just one behind Adrian Gonzalez. He's fourth in the N.L. in Runs Created per 27 Outs at 9.56, and his Isolated Power at the plate (BA - SLG = ISO, basically your slugging percentage without singles) is third in the N.L. at .339. Utley is also playing terrific defense: he's second in the N.L. amongst second basemen in Range Factor (((Put-Outs + Assists) * 9) / IP). If Chase sustains this level of production he could end up with 45-50 home runs, 40-45 doubles, 130-140 RBI, and 12-15 stolen bases.

2. Sports Illustrated's Bizarro-world cover from two weeks ago really didn't touch on everything that is so topsy-turvey about this baseball season. (Click here for the article by Tom Verducci.) Focused mainly on the Tampa Bay Rays sitting at the top of the standings while the Yankees mire in mediocrity, the article really didn't get into back I find shocking about this baseball season: the screwed up nature of the A.L. Central race, which finds the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers with losing records, fighting to stay ahead of the Kansas City Royals. The Royals. The Tigers are a total mess, having shipped Dontrelle Willis to Single-A Lakeland to rehab, while the rest of their lineup groans and creaks towards a fourth-place finish. I'm tempted to blame the struggles of the Tigers on their age, but youngsters Chris Granderson has an OBP of just .297, and Jason Verlander is 3-9 with a 4.65 ERA. Gary Sheffield has just three home runs and twelve RBI.

The Indians have issues too: Victor Martinez has zero home runs and Travis Hafner has barely played as well. The Indians pitching staff, which I actually felt was the best in the American League, has two of its three starters getting rocked: C.C. Sabathia picked an awful time to struggle (4-8, 4.34 ERA), when millions of dollars in free agency money are at stake, and Paul Byrd (3-6, 4.89 ERA) has been bad too. To me the Tigers and Indians struggles are much, much bigger surprises than the Yankees and Rays respective situations.

3. The Phillies recent two-game losing streak to the Marlins has clipped the Phillies lead in the N.L. East from 4 games to 2 games. The Braves and Mets sit six and a half games back. Oh yeah, the Mets. I harken back to all of the mocking attacks Mets fans launched on me back in spring about my belief that Johan Santana's acquisition changed nothing. (Click here for some abject stupidity.) I was skeptical about the Mets rotation but they've actually been o.k. John Maine has been good (okay, Mets fans were right about him), but Oliver Perez has stunk. On offense, Carlos Delgado has been terrible and the Mets supporting cast hasn't protected Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran or David Wright.

We'll have more on the Mets struggles later.

Labels: Odds 'n Ends

The Phillies complete a quickie two game series with the Brewers tonight before journeying to the Three Rivers city to play the Pittsburgh Pirates. I'll be attending Sunday's game, which will hopefully not be a rain-out or rain-delay (as all Phillies - Pirates games I attend seem to be).

Last night's game with the Brewers sums up a lot of the season so far: Jimmy Rollins is out (rumor as it with a broken foot), Ryan Howard is struggling, and Chase Utley and Pat Burrell are carrying the team. Burrell hit his eighth home run and Utley hit his tenth last night. Sadly, the Phillies couldn't close the deal, losing 5-4 as Cole Hamels surrendered two runs at the bottom of the eighth inning to let the Brewers slip by with a comeback victory. Today the Brewers and Phillies play at 1:00 PM and Ryan Howard won't be in the lineup.

Phillies - Pirates Thoughts: the Pirates threaten the 1933 - 1948 Phillies place in the record books as they approach their sixteenth consecutive losing season. For those unfamiliar with Phillies history: the '33 - '48 team suffered through sixteen consecutive seasons of losing in a particularly ugly period of the team's history. The 1941 team lost 111 games, an impressive feat in an era when teams played 152 games. The '33 - '48 Phillies lost 100 or more games seven times. The '93 - '08 Pirates threaten that mark of futility this season. Since they lost the seventh game of the 1992 NLCS to the Atlanta Braves (how exactly did Sid Bream beat that throw from Barry Bonds?) the Pirates have been in a spiral of incompetence. The team periodically waivers from trying to rebuild with the farm system (a strategy undermined by the fact that the team drafts poorly) and trying to add declining veterans (see, Matt Morris) at the expense of developing players. The Pirates strategy is baffling to understand and it ought not be surprising that the team has throughly alienated its fan-base these last fifteen years.

The 2008 Pirates have some talent but they are hopelessly out-classed by the Phillies. I had proposed the Pirates as a dark-horse contender in the weak N.L. Central in my season preview but they've utterly flopped thus far this season, posting a 9-12 record thus far this season, six games behind the Cubs. The Pirates problem is that while they have a good pitching staff they are undermined by the fact that their position players cannot hit and cannot field. The Pirates currently rank thirteenth in the N.L. in OPS at .678, while the Phillies rank fourth in OPS at .802. The Pirates don't set the table much: they have an OBP of .310, compared to the Phillies .338. And when runners get on they don't close the deal: the Pirates Isolated Power at the plate is a puny .123 compared with the Phillies .203. The Pirates have hit 17 home runs to the Phillies 37. Chase Utley alone has ten home runs. Both the Phillies and Pirates hit below-average with runners in scoring position (BA/RISP):

Phillies: .240 BA/RISP
Pirates: .249 BA/RISP
N.L. Avg.: .254 BA/RISP

Although the Phillies inability to hit with runners in scoring position isn't lethal to their ability to score runs because they hit with so much power at the plate, whereas the Pirates struggles are compounded by their inability to hit home runs. While Jason Bay (.409 OBP) is hitting well, his four home runs have yielded just seven RBI, a testament to how little the Pirates do to set the table. Adam LaRoche, the Pirates first baseman, has been a disaster so far this season: .127 Batting Average, just one home run. Until LaRoche hits, the Pirates are sunk.

While I've bemoaned the Phillies lack of speed thus far this season (ten steals, two triples), the Pirates resemble some guy sitting on his couch watching TV in his underwear while eating a big bowl of fritos. They are the slowest team in the N.L., having stolen just six bases (the Astros Michael Bourn alone has thirteen) which is tied for the worst in the N.L., along with just one triple, the worst in the N.L.

The Pirates rotation, which I felt would be a strength, has been a major disappointment:

Ian Snell: 2-1, 4.45 ERA
Zack Duke: 0-1, 4.37 ERA
Paul Maholm: 1-2, 4.22 ERA
Matt Morris: 0-3, 9.15 ERA
Tom Gorzelanny: 1-2, 9.35 ERA

The Pirates team ERA is a whopping 5.66, by far the worst in the N.L. The Pirates hurlers are worst in the N.L. in terms of getting strikeouts (5.1 K/9) and have allowed far too many home runs and doubles to be hit off them. The team's .468 slugging percentage allowed is second-worst in the N.L. to the Florida Marlins. The Pirates 4.66 FIP is, again, worst in the N.L.

As you've noticed, the Pirates FIP is a full run better than their ERA, so one of the problems is that the Pirates fielders are simply abysmal: the team's .654 Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER - the percentage of balls put into play that fielders turn into outs) is the worst in the N.L. and sum up a major reason why the Pirates pitchers cannot develop: pitchers not confident that the fielders can take care of balls put into play tend to drive themselves nuts trying to strike each and every guy out. The Pirates inability to develop these position players is a major reason why their talented young pitchers have struggled.

Politics ... The eyes of America were on Pennsylvania Tuesday night. I voted in the Primary Election and I hope everyone registered as a Republican or a Democrat did the same. I was very surprised by the outcome: I truly expected to see Barak Obama close the deal and sink Hillary Clinton's Presidential campaign. Instead Hillary won a solid victory, 55%-45%. What was a major surprise to me was how poorly Obama did in the Philadelphia suburbs. He won Delaware and Chester Counties with just 55% of the vote and lost Montgomery County 51% to 49%. The fact that Obama lost Montgomery County, with its educated, white-collar voters - the very picture of the Obamacrat - is troubling for his campaign. John McCain is probably looking at swatches for the drapes in the Oval Office right now. On to North Carolina & Indiana ...

I'll have a few more musings tomorrow...

Labels: Odds 'n Ends

I was actually somewhat pleased by certain things in last night's 12-inning 4-3 loss to the Mets. I continue to fret over Jimmy Rollins absence from the lineup and the play of Eric Bruntlett (0-for-6 last night), but while it sucks to lose to the Mets, at least there is some silver lining: Adam Eaton pitched ... ok. Not great, but 3 runs in 6 innings isn't bad and Eaton got 5 strikeouts and allowed just 2 walks. It was a surprisingly ok performance.

And the bullpen, with the usual exception of Tom Gordon, pitched well. Until Gordon entered the game they tossed four innings of shut-out baseball. Not too bad.

So that closes the book on the Phillies and Mets. While the Mets may have won 2 of 3, the war for the NL East rages on. Now the Phillies get to return home to match up against the Chicago Cubs, those lovable losers from the North Side of Chicago in search of their first World Series title in 100 years.

Know they enemy ... I had a great Q & A session with Byron Clarke of Goat Riders of the Apocalypse which he will be posting on his blog and then answered some questions of my own about the Cubs. Here they are:

"1. Is Kosuke Fukudome for real?"

Well, he's not a figment of our imagination, but is he .419/.526/.613 for real? Probably not. Interestingly enough, that's the first question most people want to know about the Cubs. In a fit of excitement after the first week, I told Bucs Dugout I expected a .310/.390/.600 line with 40 doubles, 20 homers, 15 steals, and 15 outfield assists. They pointed out the .600 was a tough sell with those power numbers, so maybe it will be a .500 power average, but yeah, I think he's pretty much for real. Whatever the case, he's the most dangerous bat in the lineup as of today.

"2. 2008 is the 100th Anniversary of the Cubs last World Series triumph . The Red Sox have exercised their demons. Will this be The Year for the Cubs?"

Not unless we acquire a front-line pitcher. The Cubs missed out on the World Series when Johan Santana went to the Mets. Our problem remains the same as last year. Carlos Zambrano matches up okay against other aces, Ted Lilly's not as good as the other #2s, and we have another half dozen #5 starters. Now, if Ryan Dempster keeps throwing as well as he did last night, 7 ip, 1 hit, 2 BB, 0 runs, then we might be good to go, but I put the likelihood of that up there with Fooky maintaining his current numbers.

"3. Kerry Wood: What Went Wrong? Could it still go right?"

He got injured. There are lots of things to blame it on, and everyone has their favorite. Some blame it on the two complete games he threw in a doubleheader at the Texas State High School baseball championships, some blame it on the onerous work load in 1998, still others blame Dusty Baker's taxing 2003 demands. Whatever the case may be, Woody can't stay healthy. If he ever does, and he seems to have a good chance to do so pitching out of the pen, then things could still go very right for Kid-K.

So far this year, he's having trouble adjusting to the end of the game. He's had three saves in four chances, but he surrendered a run in his other appearance, so essentially he's three for five in keeping the opponents scoreless. The good thing for Woody is that he has a tremendous pool of good-will stored up in Chicago. I was just telling my friend this morning that if Dempster was still the closer and had gotten off to the start Wood has, well there'd be some nasty columns in the papers. At this point, everyone's still giving Wood the benefit of the doubt.

"4. Who's is the Cubs MVP? (And why?)"

In his two outings, Carlos Zambrano has been masterful. In previous years, he's had very rough starts. Last year, after 5 starts, he was 1-1 with a 6.91 ERA and we were speculating that he was hiding an injury. If he avoids his horrid April and pitches like he does in the summer months, he could very likely be a top candidate for the Cy Young award.

To this point, Fukudome has been the MVP, but D-Lee, Aramis, and Soriano will all end up with better offensive numbers. But the player the Cubs need the most is Carlos.

"5. Is Lou Pinella the right guy to lead the Cubs?"

I think so. After one year, Dusty Baker was a god in Chicago, so things can change, but Lou's got a Chicago personality where Dude Dusty never did. The best thing about Piniella is he puts winning over ideology. Dusty had these notions about how winning baseball was played, and he wouldn't deviate even when we were tail-spinning into last place, or the personnel just didn't make sense. (See Lawsuit: Centerfielders hit leadoff, second basemen hit in the two-hole causing OBP blackholes Corey Patterson and Neifi Perez to hit in front of MVP-Caliber-Derrek Lee 500 times in 2005 v. Cubdom hates Dusty.)

Lou on the other hand has tried multiple times to move Soriano out of the lead-off slot, but has relented when the results don't work out. Anyhow, like all managers, Lou will continue to be loved in Chicago so long as he wins, and when he doesn't... well they fired Ditka once.

"Bonus Q: What makes the identity of being a Cubs fan so special?"

Constant re-affirmation by the people selling us things. Yes, I know it's a jaded viewpoint, but I attend the Cubs convention each January, and the line most likely to get great applause is the one where cubs fans are called "the best fans in the world" by the guys who just charged us $50 a pop to pack into a convention center. We just can't get enough of it.

In a less jaded moment, I would answer that there is a certain camaraderie that develops when a group of people are put through oppression. Cubs fans are proud to be authentic, even though that isn't a word I would use for many of us. Who joins a bandwagon for a team that hasn't won in 100 years? It's signing up for a lifetime of disappointment, but at least there's sunshine involved. So yes, Cubs fans are special... but blasphemy! so are fans of any other team that are equally as devoted, even if their teams win on occasion.

Cubs - Phillies preview later today.

Labels: Odds 'n Ends

Yeah, I was supposed to post my Season Preview for the Phillies today but I am a little behind. Stay tuned, I expect to post Wednesday. Hopefully.

In the meanwhile, check out this article from The Hardball Times talking about the Bobby Abreu deal. If you want to skip to the conclusions: the Phillies got nothing for Abreu but got to dump his salary on the only team in the MLB that could take it.

Also, apparently Adam Eaton has won the #5 starter job from Chad Durbin and Travis Blackley, apparently pitching well enough to take the job. Count on Durbin, who will move to the bullpen, to get some starts if / when Eaton and Kyle Kendrick struggle.

Labels: Durbin, Eaton, Kenderick, Odds 'n Ends, Pitching, Predictions, Rotation

I've been pretty busy at my day job as a hard-charging attorney in Western Pennsylvania over the last few days to respond to emails or scope out comments. I've been waist-deep in the middle of a jury trial and preparation for another one that kicks off next week. Don't be surprised if I am a few days late on posting my Phillies preview, as I've been blissfully unaware of basically everything else that is going on in the world at large.

As for my National League predictions ... Predictably my, well, prediction that the Braves would out-pace the Phillies and Mets was met with derision (as well as bad grammar) by Mets fans. C'est la vie. Agree with me that the Braves rotation will be better or disagree, but quit displaying your own ignorance by pretending that your opinion is the only opinion anyone is entitled to.

On the plus side, please keep reading, as your obsessive, almost stalker-esqe pursuit of me across cyberspace increases the traffic on my blog.

The Hardball Times has been posting team previews for the upcoming season and I like what they have to say. Here are ...

... The Phillies.
... The Mets.
... The Braves.
... The Nats.
... & the Fishstripes.

I just got my copy of The 33-Year Old Rookie and I've been devouring it while I ride the train into work. It's really terrific and I'll be posting a review as soon as I catch my breath. Coste did a Q&A with ESPN's Page 2 here.

Monday: Phillies Preview. Maybe.

Labels: Odds 'n Ends

Last night I appeared on Philly Sports Talk Now to discuss the 2008 season and the Phillies. My thanks again to Jim Dogg and Rich for having me on their show. I always have a blast. Click here for the podcast.

Labels: Odds 'n Ends, Predictions, State of the Phillies

Labels: Eaton, Kenderick, Myers, Odds 'n Ends, Pitching, Rotation, Savery, Spring Training

Over the weekend, Brett Myers pranked poor Kyle Kendrick into believing that the Phillies were going to deal him to the Japanese Big Leagues for a Japanese player, a ruse that left Kendrick completely floored. Here is the link from Yahoo! Sports and some video of Kendrick's reaction - courtesy of Comcast Sports Net - to the news. Well done, Brett Myers!


Meanwhile, in copycat news, Carlos Beltran has issued a declaration that the Mets are now the team to beat in the N.L. East, a boast Jimmy Rollins and the Phillies are wisely ignoring. Funny thing is, the Mets were the team to beat last year and they choked. Win some games in late September this time, Beltran, than we'll be impressed.

The Phillies signed 33-year old Kris Benson to the roster last week. Benson, who missed all of 2007 with injuries, was a former first pick in the 1996 Draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates. Benson never quite became the player that the Pirates envisioned and dealt him at the trading deadline in 2004 to the Mets. The Phillies decided to give Benson a shot. Generally speaking like some of Benson's numbers: in 2004, for example, he posted a 2.14 strikeout-to-walk ratio, which is very impressive. In '04 he also only allowed 0.67 HR/9. In 2005 he posted decent numbers once more: 1.93 K/BB ratio, 1.24 HR/9. He really struggled in Baltimore in '06 (11-12, 4.82 ERA, 1.51 K/BB), but if he sticks with the Phillies, they could have a dynamite #5 starter or long-reliever.

Let's just hope that his wife doesn't show up in training camp ...

Tomorrow: some thoughts on the Phillies - Howard arbitration battle.

Labels: Kenderick, Myers, Odds 'n Ends

I appeared on Philly Sports Talk Now with Jim and Rich last night to talk about the Phillies upcoming season. It is always a pleasure to appear on their program. Click here for anyone interested.

Labels: Odds 'n Ends

Happy New Year!!!!

I’m back and I intend to resume full-time posting on January 7, with a review of the new Bill James Handbook. I’ve been busy mapping out a plan of attack for 2008. For one, I need to modernize my blog and kill defunct links. Two, I plan on posting with a little more regularity in 2008 and devoting a little more time to my blogging. The Phillies run to the playoffs last fall re-energized my blogging and I want to make this season my best.

I got bogged down a lot in 2007 with work and just plain laziness on my part at various points in the season. I intend on jumping out to a productive start in 2008 and never looking back.

My goal is for A Citizens Blog to be the definitive Phillies blog. I hope you all see a marked improvement in my work. Originally I intended to make 2008 my final season blogging but I might go onto 2009 because I wanted to end my run by publishing a book on the Phillies and I got exactly no work done on that project this fall. So stay tuned. The book project will probably still happen, but I have its release tentatively scheduled for October of 2009.

I’ll comment a little on Phillies news – Pat Gillick shipped Chris Roberson to the Baltimore Orioles for cash, which figures given that the team brought So Taguchi, Geoff Jenkins and Chris Snelling in this off-season to round out the outfield with Jayson Werth, Pat Burrell and Shane Victorino. The team has basically decided that Snelling or Taguchi will be the fifth outfielder given that the team needs Werth and Jenkins bats pretty badly. My sense is that Roberson, if given the chance, will do a decent job in Baltimore, so good for him.

A little off-topic, but let me move onto football … The NFL playoffs heat up this weekend and for the second time in three years the Eagles won’t be a part of them. I’m less inclined to see 2007 as a failure compared to others. Yes, the Eagles are just 24-24 (25-25 if you count the playoffs) since they lost Super Bowl XXXIX to the Patriots. But the ’07 Birds won their final three games and lost four of their eight by three points or less. They two others (20-12 to the Redskins and 28-24 to the Seahawks) by less than 10 points to playoff teams. Remember that they destroyed the Lions 56-21 in week three and they beat the Cowboys in Big D.

Oh, and they probably came the closest of knocking off the Patsies.

The Eagles 2008 schedule looks pretty favorable: they play the AFC North in 2008, but luckily for the Eagles the Browns and Steelers are home games and they get the Bengals and Ravens, the weaker of the two AFC North teams, on the road. The Eagles also get the NFC West, arguably the weakest division in football, in 2008 as well. Home games against the Rams and Falcons are just what the doctor ordered. The Birds could go 12-4 and play in the Super Bowl. I think they need to shed some dead weight (i.e., Jevon Kearse) and get a little quicker on defense.

As for the NFL playoffs … Look for San Diego to rough up the Titans 41-14 on Sunday afternoon. I think the Redskins and Giants will pull off the upsets over the Seahawks and Buccaneers respectively 17-10 and 28-14. Finally, in the biggest game of the weekend, watch the Pittsburgh Steelers narrowly upend the Jacksonville Jaguars 14-13 in what will be a very, very cold evening in Pittsburgh.

As for college football … Wouldn’t it be a kick in the teeth if USC comes out of this year with the AP title? The BCS was meant to avoid these disasters and look what might happen!

Labels: Odds 'n Ends

First off, the Mitchell Report came down yesterday and I have a couple of thoughts:

1. I am pleasantly surprised to see that no current Phillies are mentioned on the report. David Bell, Lenny Dykstra, Ryan Franklin, Jeremy Giambi, Todd Pratt, all former Phillies, all made the list, but nobody like Pat Burrell or Ryan Howard or one of the Phillies other stars made the list.

2. There are some shockers on the list, starting with Andy Pettitte. Andy Pettitte? I would never have guessed that he used steroids given his thin-ish physique. Some members of the list kinda figure – Miguel Tejada, for example, and obviously Barry Bonds.

3. Not surprisingly, Mitchell lays the blame at the feet of everyone in baseball, from management to the player’s union. It is difficult to quibble Mitchell’s assertion that this was a problem that nobody wanted to confront. Certainly the players union deserves scorn for fighting, as vigorously as they could, any testing and resisting changes to the MLB’s policies.

4. Mitchell is also probably right in advocating no discipline for current players named in the report because of the resulting chaos that is likely to result.

Will the Mitchell Report fundamentally change the game of baseball? I doubt it. It is embarrassing to baseball, to be sure, but will it really spur changes? The Players Union will continue to fight testing. Management will quietly look the other way. The players will attempt to circumvent the testing system. The Steroid Era will march on.

The best thing for baseball to do is to declare an amnesty. Admit you've done it, come clean, pledge to be clean in the future. If you are willing to admit you've made a mistake, then all is forgiven. If you continue to lie, equivocate and fail to admit reponsibility for your actions, then you should suffer the consequences.

After an amnesty the consequences ought to be severe: a ban for 3-5 years or a lifetime ban. The only way baseball can ever hope to get a handle on this is for there to be severe consequences to attach to using steroids and lots and lots of testing. The Players Union will fight that tooth and nail. But the deterrent of testing - which heightens the chances of being caught - and the prospect of severe punishment - not just a few game suspension - are the only ways to stop players from doping. Don't count on it.

On to the Aaron Rowand signing … I must admit to being very, very surprised to see Aaron Rowand in San Francisco. Rowand, who seemed to embody the blue-collar toughness of the South Side of Chicago and Philadelphia, is now on baseball’s left coast. Rowand is going from Yeunglings and Cheesesteaks to Chianti and Tofu Hot Dogs. It seems like a bad fit. I'm sure that Rowand will be a favorite of the Giants faithful, but I just can't imagine them being as enthusiastic about him as Phillies fans were.

Five years and $60 million bucks was too rich for the Phillies and I don’t blame them. Statistically, his reputation as a terrific defensive centerfielder was undeserved these last two seasons. His play was extremely average. Sure he made the high-light reel over at ESPN with his patented run-into-the-wall catches, but the numbers showed that Rowand was pretty average in terms of his range.

As for Rowand's offensive abilities, he's generally a free-swinger (119 strike-outs in 2007) who doesn't draw many walks. Rowand was able to put up nice numbers for the Phillies in 2007 (27 Home Runs, 89 RBI, 45 Doubles) in part because he was playing in a hitters part. Good luck doing that in San Francisco where the Park Factor for Home Runs was 69 and was 99 for batting averages.

I think letting Rowand walk was the smart move. To the Phillies really want to tie up $12 million a year when they could use that money to get help for the pitching staff? And do the Phillies, after the Pat Burrell experience, really want to tie that much money up for the next five seasons? If Rowand flops, the Giants will have an financial albatross around their neck until 2012. The Phillies have a perfectly effective and low-cost alternative in Shane Victorino as well.

Season in Review: Hitting will be sometime next week.

Labels: Odds 'n Ends, Rowand

Alright … Today I was supposed to post my Season in Review for Pitching, but I’ve gotten a little bit behind because it turns out there was a lot more I wanted to say about pitching than I intended. So we’re going to comment on a few odds ‘n ends sort of things before talking about subjects other than baseball.

No movement on the Aaron Rowand front. No movement on any front, really. This has been a sloooowwwww off-season. Eventually Rowand will sign a massive 5 or 6 year deal worth $70-80 million, but not any time soon. I think teams are waiting to see how the Yankees and Mets play out their negotiations with the Twins for Johan Santana before they jump. Once Santana is unloaded and the A’s decide what they want for Dan Haren, I think you’ll see Rowand, Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse finally find homes.

Don’t count on the Phillies being too active. Now that they have Brad Lidge on the roster, I honestly think they might be out of moves. With Mike Lowell back in Boston, there are no available third basemen for them to scoop up, and with Jon Garland in Anaheim, I think their target for a trade for starting pitching is gone. This is the roster that the Phillies will probably go to Opening Day with.

Too bad Randy Wold inked a one-year deal with the Padres, because I wanted to see if the Phillies could re-sign him and bring him home. Oh well.

So the Eagles season is basically finished with their 28-24 loss to the Seattle Seahawks yesterday. After this loss and last week’s 31-28 loss to the Patriots, the 5-7 Eagles don’t have much of a shot. The NFC East title is out of reach, about to be claimed by the Cowboys. The Eagles have to win next Sunday’s game with the New York Giants because a loss to them means that the Eagles can’t catch them for wildcard slot #1. After the Giants there are three teams locked in at 6-6 (Minnesota, Detroit and Arizona) and then there are a slew of 5-7 teams with the Eagles. The Eagles aren’t a lost cause – they beat Detroit and Minnesota earlier in the season, remember, so they own tie-breakers – but the road is pretty tough. They basically have to win every game from here on out. My gut tells me that we’ll soon see Kevin Kolb making his NFL debut.

College Football: another year, another BCS controversy. Isn’t about time to junk this idiotic idea? I know college football doesn’t want to kill the BCS because it means the end of the traditional bowl system, but the fact that you have a two-loss team like LSU and a pretender like Ohio State battling it out for the National Title while the undefeated Hawaii Warriors aren’t playing for a National Title is absurd.

After all of those seasons watching teams forced to play in other bowls rather than meeting for a climatic championship game (Penn State and Nebraska in 1994, Michigan and Nebraska in 1997), the BCS was meant to preserve the lucrative bowl system and still get a consensus #1 vs. #2 match-up. Does it ever really accomplish that? Honestly, I think there was less controversy about the National Champ before the BCS, back when Miami would go 12-0 and you’d say, “Yes, that’s the best team, no question.”

This year’s match-up features Ohio State, a Big Ten team with a soft schedule that didn’t have the burden of playing in a conference title game, against LSU, a team with two losses. If Ohio State wins, the Big Ten gets away with highway robbery: they get a national champ despite having a conference full of mediocre teams that play nobody and not having their team leap through the hurdle of a conference championship game.

If LSU wins, then it is chaos. Utter, utter chaos. How do you give LSU the title if Hawaii wins the Sugar Bowl? How do the Tigers get to be #1 when the Warriors went undefeated? How does one-loss Kansas get to be excluded when two loss LSU wins it?

Other teams have finished their regular seasons undefeated and never been given a chance at a National Title game: Utah in 2004 and Boise State last season in particular come to mind. Both of those teams proved they deserved to be in their games with impressive wins over their opponents.

Some of the match-ups are absurd: how did USC and Illinois get into a BCS bowl? Why did the people who run the Rose Bowl take Illinois over Missouri? Afraid of competition for USC if they took Missouri? I won’t even watch the Rose Bowl this year, it is a real snoozer of a match-up. Why is Arizona State relegated to the Holiday Bowl?

My alma mater, Pitt, helped to make the weekend controversial with their 13-9 win over the West Virginia Mountaineers on Saturday. The Panthers, who limped into the game with a 4-7 record, were 28 point underdogs to WVU and still managed to win the game thanks to some tough running by tailback LaSean McCoy run 38 times for 148 yards, Pitt’s defense made terrific plays – they held WVU’s vaunted rushing attack to just 183 net yards – and WVU’s kicker missed two chip-shot field goals. It really fills you with confidence about Pitt’s 2008 prospects since McCoy and starting QB Pat Bostick are both freshmen.

How about some love for the Big East? WVU nearly played for a National Title. They went 5-0 in Bowl games in 2006. Connecticut had one of the best defenses in the country. Cincinnati was terrific, as was Rutgers. The Big East is clearly a great conference and definitely a better one than the Big Ten. Hey, at least one of our teams didn’t lose to a Division I-AA school.

Labels: Odds 'n Ends, Rowand, Third Base, Wolf

It’s awards time once again and I thought I might chime in with my predictions and arguments for who deserves each of the major awards, from Manager of the Year to MVP. Without further ado … The envelope please …

AL Manager of the Year

Who will win … Terry Francona, Boston Red Sox.

Who should win … Joe Torre, New York Yankees.

Perhaps baseball will give the award to Torre to spit in the eye of George Steinbrenner and the mighty Evil Empite in the Bronx. No, baseball will give the award to Francona because the Red Sox were the strongest team in baseball in 2007, seizing control of the A.L. East and never relinquishing it on their way to their second World Series title in four years. The deserving candidate is Torre, who won it in 1996 and 1998, but who turned in his greatest performance as a manager this season, taking a Yankees team that was 21-29 on May 29th, and then going 73-39 the rest of the way. Torre took a team loaded with egos and no pitching and succeeded in making them into contenders. He was the A.L.’s best manager.

NL Manager of the Year

Who will win … Charlie Manuel, Phillies

Who should win … Manuel

Maybe the Rockies Clint Hurdle stands a chance here, but Manuel took a team that struggled early in the season (remember that 3-10 start?) and had a pitching staff that was eviscerated and created a winner. His calm presence and skilled tactics led the Phillies to victory. Did anyone in baseball, aside from maybe Joe Torre, do a better job? I think not. Manuel should be a lock.

AL Rookie of the Year

Who will win … Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox.

Who should win … Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox.

Dice-K was pretty decent in 2007. Pedroia led all rookies in OPS (.823, 108 OPS+) and really came out of nowhere to help power the Red Sox to the World Series. Dice-K got all of the glory and will win the award, but I think teammate Pedroia was the best of an uninspired lot.

NL Rookie of the Year

Who will win … Troy Tulowitski, Colorado Rockies.

Who should win … Tulowitski.

Let’s see … Tulowitski plays shortstop, a demanding defensive position, very well, and he hit 24 Home Runs, 99 RBIs, .838 OPS (110 OPS+). He led all N.L. shortstops in Range Factor (5.39) and in Fielding Win Shares (10.9). Hard to have a better rookie season than that! Tulowitski was clearly the best rookie in the National League.

AL Cy Young

Who will win… Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox.

Who should win… Beckett.

Beckett, the sole 20-game winner in the majors in 2007 (20-7), will win the award, and he clearly deserves it. While the Twins Johan Santana pitched well, he lost a step in 2007/ Beckett’s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA was 3.22 to Santana’s 3.94. Beckett also had a better K/BB ratio: 4.85 to 4.51, and allowed fewer walks (1.9 BB/9 to 2.3) and fewer Home Runs (0.80 to 1.45 HR/9) than Santana. I actually think the Indians C.C. Sabathia is the runner-up, rather than Santana. Still, this was Beckett’s season. Bottom-line: Beckett was the best pitcher in the AL in 2007.

NL Cy Young

Who will win … Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres.

Who should win … Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks.

I give the edge to Webb over Peavy because Peavy accumulated his stats playing in the park that favors pitchers above all others in the Major League. Peavy gets more strikeouts (10.4 K/9 to 7.7), gives up roughly the same number of walks (2.9 BB/9), and gives up slightly more home runs (0.56 HR/9 for Peavy to Webb’s 4.8). Peavy’s FIP is 2.80 to Webb’s 3.19, but Peavy plays in a pitchers park with a terrific defense backing him up. Webb plays in a hitters dream with a mediocre team behind him. Much like how Sandy Koufax carried the Dodgers in the 1960’s, Brandon Webb carries the D-Backs. They’d be sunk without him. Maybe this is an argument based on sentiment more than hard stats, but I like Webb for his second consecutive Cy Young award.

AL MVP

Who will win… Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees.

Who should win … A-Rod.

Basically, this is the only award that the Red Sox won’t take. How good was A-Rod? 54 Home Runs, 156 RBI, 160 Runs Created, 31 Doubles, 24 steals in 28 tries … A-Rod was clearly the best player in the American League in 2007. Nobody played better baseball. Had it not been for A-Rod’s torrid April, the Yankees would never have made the playoffs at all. As it stands, he was the best bat in the league and played a tough defensive position well. If the ballot isn’t unanimous for A-Rod, I’d be shocked.

NL MVP

Who will win … Matt Holliday, Rockies.

Who should win … Jimmy Rollins, Phillies.

Hitting 36 Home Runs, 137 RBI, .405 OBP, and 125 Runs Created ought to win you the MVP award. But who was more important to their team than Jimmy Rollins? Holliday was a cog in the Rockies machine, but Rollins was the fire-starter for the Phillies. This was no ordinary season for J.Roll: 38 Doubles, 20 Triples, 30 Home Runs, 94 RBI, 41 stolen bases in 47 attempts, 122 Runs Created. Sure, there are things not to like about Jimmy Rollins. His .345 OBP is too low for a lead-off hitter. And he did lead the N.L. in Outs with 527. But he has a unique blend of speed, power and defense and his terrific play was vital in sparking the Phillies to the NL East crown. He was the best individual player in the league and was the most important to his team. He was the 2007 NL MVP. Give it to him!

Alright, sometime this week look for Part II of my Minor League review, then look for Part I of my Phillies Season in Review: Fielding next Monday.

Labels: Managing, Odds 'n Ends, Rollins

Former Phillies Triple-A Manager John Russell is getting the nod to succeed Jim Tracy as the Pittsburgh Pirates Manager for 2008 and beyond. Good luck, John, you’ll need it.

Apparently Curt Schilling has indicated that the Detroit Tigers and Phillies are on his short-list of teams he’d like to play for in 2008. I wouldn’t mind seeing the Phillies do a one-year deal for $11-13 million for Schilling. If Schilling is great, then it is money well-spent. Moyer, Schilling, Hamels, that is a deadly 1-2-3. And the team gets a pitcher with a proven track record in the playoffs. If not, then the Phillies cut their ties with him and turn to Carlos Carrasco and Josh Outman in 2009. Win-win.

Scott Boras apparently thinks that his guy (A-Rod) is going to get $30-35 million a season. Good luck. That pretty much rules the cash-strapped Phillies out of the mix and makes the Anaheim Angels the front-runner for the soon-to-be 2007 AL MVP's services.

The Arizona Fall League is well underway and the Peoria Saguaros, which has Phillies like 3B Mike Costanzo, OF Greg Golson and P Joe Savery on the roster are off to a 7-15 start. Ugh.

One of the reasons why I am opposed to the Phillies investing major amounts of money on free agent pitchers is that they have lots of talent currently in the pipeline and the success of the Boston Red Sox teaches us that teams are better-off developing their own talent from within rather than buying it on the marketplace. Teams are going to overpay if they pursue Freddy Garcia and Kyle Lohse, because the scarcity of quality pitching means that many dollars will be pursuing few goods on the market. Savery, Outman and Carrasco are going to be Major League-ready in 2009. Why make a major investment in free agents when cheap, home-grown talent will be ready in a year?

A turn to Football: Andy Reid needs to take a sabbatical from coaching and deal with his issues. It was painfully obvious that the Eagles play-calling has gotten absurdly predictable. The Cowboys leaped on every screen the Eagles tried to run to Westbrook and got into McNabb’s face all night. They never bothered to establish a running game and looked out of sync all night. With games coming up against the Redskins, Dolphins and Patriots, the Eagles need to revamp some things and return to the winning football they played at the end of 2006, when Marty Mornhinweg called the plays and the Eagles actually established a running game. Bottom-line, unless they keep Tom Brady and the Patriots off the field when they play, it is going to be a 52-7 Patriots laugher.

A turn to History: The Hardball Times John Brattain wrote a nice article ("Ghosts of World Series Past") about the 1950 World Series, which featured the Philadelphia Phillies in what was probably the hardest fought sweep in World Series history. Readers of this blog know that I wrote a series about the 1950 Wiz Kids last fall. Click here for the article about the World Series.

Labels: 1950, Free Agency, Odds 'n Ends

The Red Sox won their second World Series in the last four seasons and their second since 1918 with a stunning four-game sweep of the Colorado Rockies. I really felt that the Rockies would have the edge in the series, based on the fact that they had been playing so well and had so thoroughly dominated the Red Sox in their series in Fenway earlier in the season. Aside from Game One, the games in this series were generally close, but to the victors go the spoils and the bragging rights. I stand corrected.

So now the Red Sox will build on their triumph and attempt to construct a dynasty in Beantown. They’ll try to re-sign Mike Lowell and Curt Schilling, but expect the demand for their services to be high. Still, the Red Sox have a load of talent that will be returning in 2008 and John Henry & Co. have shown a willingness to spend money, attract talent and be competitive. The Red Sox could easily win some more titles in 2008, 2009 and beyond. This is a new golden age, Sox fans.

Meanwhile, over at the Evil Empire, A-Rod has apparently told the Yankees that he intends on opting out of his deal and pursuing free agency. With Lowell likely to leave, this opens up third base in Fenway to A-Rod. I can’t see A-Rod in a Red Sox uniform, but wouldn’t that be a shocker?

No, I think A-Rod is likely headed out to the West Coast to join the Anaheim Angels. It strikes me as a good fit: the Angels will spend the cash to make it happen and A-Rod strikes me as a SoCal kinda guy (i.e., a metrosexual) anyway, instead of Boston.

What a calamity the Yankees off-season is shaping up to be! The bad press over their "firing" of Joe Torre, the decision of A-Rod to leave, the likely departure of Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada and others ... They are making a nice move in bringing Joe Girardi aboard, but the bad news heavily outweighs the good. Plus, it seems like Steinbrenner's sons are angrily wielding power let petty tyrants. Hank Steinbrenner's angry tirade ("I don't want anybody on my team that doesn't want to be a Yankee") looks like sour grapes and underscores a petulant approach to negotiating and managing a team. With the Red Sox on the rise, these could be the new Dark Ages (remember 1965 - 1973?) for the Yankees.

More tomorrow. I have a few more posts for the week. Sorry I didn't post more last week, but I've been beat.

Labels: Odds 'n Ends, Playoffs, Predictions

We’ll actually start off the week with some Odds ‘N Ends …

The World Series matchup is set: Colorado Rockies vs. the Boston Red Sox. The team of Destiny 2007 vs. the Team of Destiny 2004. It will be an interesting series, featuring two teams with stellar offenses. The Rockies aren’t going to sneak up on people anymore and people know that the Rockies pitching is actually pretty good.

Much has been made of the American League’s dominance in inter-league play over the last several years, but the World Series have seen a lot of parity. Since the Yankees won the World Series in 2000 over the Mets, the split between the A.L. and N.L. is dead-even: each has won three titles. The N.L. has seen the Arizona Diamondbacks (2001), the Florida Marlins (2003), and the St. Louis Cardinals (2006) all win, while the A.L. has seen the Anaheim Angels (2002), the Boston Red Sox (2004) and the Chicago White Sox (2005) win. Interestingly, I think that the American League team was favored in each one of those series, so it just goes to show you that anything can happen in baseball.

I’ll break-down the World Series tomorrow, but my gut right now tells me to go with the Rockies, winners of 21 of their last 22 games, the new team of destiny.

Moving along to Phillies matters …

A fan named Dan Landis wrote into the Inquirer arguing that the Phillies should let Rowand walk because his asking price was too high and because Rowand wasn’t really a great defensive centerfielder. In the Sunday Edition there were a few letters assailing Landis letter, which I thought were worth commenting on. Here is the first from a fan in Holland:

No offense, but I have to ask Broomall's Dan Landis (The 700 Level, Oct. 14) a serious question: What are you smokin', pal?
So, the Phillies would do well not to sign Aaron Rowand for next year? Were you watching the same player the rest of us Phillies fans were this year? Did you not see the shoestring catches that got Phillies pitchers out of numerous jams? How about the leaping grabs inches from the top of the center-field wall? Did you miss the times he was there to save Pat Burrell's various malaprops? Granted, the $14 million Rowand's agent hinted he will command for 2008 and beyond is a Phillies ownership budget buster. However, don't tell me Rowand's "slowness" in the outfield is the reason you would let him "walk." Dan, you obviously do not have a clue as to what Rowand has done to help the 2007 Fightin' Phils successfully drive to the NL East championship.

Here is the second letter, this one is from a fan in Cherry Hill:

I couldn't believe my eyes while reading Dan Landis' letter "Rowand Must Go" last Sunday. What games has he been watching? Rowand slow? Rowand not a good defensive centerfielder? Good grief! He has always been regarded by the powers that be in major-league baseball as a solid defensive presence. Sure, Michael Bourn is faster. But very few outfielders have the instincts that Rowand possesses. Very few get the outstanding jump on the ball that he gets. And without good instincts, blinding speed means nothing. Also, where did that
"a problem getting to fly balls" come from? My wife and I watched literally every game this year. We didn't see a problem but did see some spectacular catches.

I sort of imagined Bill James or Rob Neyer or one of the writers over at The Hardball Times or Baseball Prospectus slapping their hands on their heads and doubling over at the headache as they tried to draft a response. “Did you see that catch that so-and-so made against that team? What a great defensive player!” This is the reason why sabremetricians nearly have a stroke when people argue that Derek Jeter is a great defensive player and cite his flip relay to Jorge Posada to catch Jeremy Giambi at home in the seventh inning of Game Three of the 2001 ALDS. Jeter’s flip caught Giambi as he motored in to score what would have been the tying run in the game. Instead the Yankees held on to win 1-0 and went on to win the series in an improbable comeback.

One play doesn’t a great defensive player make. Virtually the entire sabremetric community is unanimous in their agreement that Derek Jeter is a substandard shortstop and does not deserve his annual gold glove recognition. Here’s a thought fellas: maybe those “shoestring catches” to get Phillies pitchers “out of jams” are actually the product of Rowand’s limits on the field. Don’t the great players make routine plays? Maybe Rowand has to make shoestring catches because he lacks the speed to get to the ball and his hustle is the only thing keeping him in the game anymore.

The numbers don’t help the fan from Cherry Hill. Aaron Rowand might have had a reputation from the “powers that be” for being a great defensive centerfielder from his days with the White Sox, but the numbers show that he hasn’t live up to that reputation in Philly. Amongst the seven N.L. centerfielders who logged 1,000+ innings of work in 2007, Rowand ranks sixth of the seven in term of Relative Zone Rating (RZR): .861, behind the Braves Andruw Jones (.921), the Mets Carlos Beltran (.915), the Dodgers Juan Pierre (.902), the Padres Mike Cameron (.894), and the D-backs Chris Young (.875). Rowand is better than the Brewers Bill Hall (.846), which is little solace because Bill Hall is utterly incompetent in the field. In 2006, Rowand’s first season in the red pinstripes, he ranked worse: ninth of ten N.L. centerfielders in RZR. Remember, this was a season where Rowand had people swooning after him when he ran into the ball and broke his nose making a catch early in the season. In 2006 Rowand was better than … Ken Griffey, Jr. That’s not something to celebrate.

For all of Rowand’s energy you’d think he’d be involved in more plays, but he ranked just fourth of seven in Range Factor in 2007, at 2.64 he was behind Beltran (2.87), Jones (2.67) and the dithering Hall (2.65).

Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
Zone Rating (ZR): Is a stat which measures a player’s defensive ability by measuring plays they should have made. Admittedly, this is a stat left open to subjective opinions.
Range Factor: (Putouts + Assists) * 9 / IP. Essentially measures how much a player is involved in defensive plays.

That’s why the true evaluation of a baseball player is not how many shoestring catches they made, or how many times they run into walls, or how many clutch hits they make. The true evaluation of a player is how often do they get to ball in the field and how well do they hit at the plate.

Moving along … Joe Torre is now officially unemployed. I think he’ll probably spend 2008 watching the game from the TV announcer’s booth before making a commitment to coaching again in 2009. I could see him replacing Tony LaRussa in St. Louis, for example. I like what Jim Salisbury had to say about Torre in Sunday’s Inquirer: He was the calming, fatherly force in the tsunami that often is baseball in the Bronx.

I think the Yankees are in a period of transition right now. Brian Cashman is wielding a lot more power over the franchise and I thought it was interesting how steadfast Cashman has been in not dumping the Yankees prospects for short-term help. Philip Hughes and Joba Chamberlain were both pitchers who the Yankees would have unloaded for an extra bat in the past. Astonishing that they haven’t done that. I think Cashman is going to try and get the Yankees back to what they were in their 1996 – 2000 period, when they won four World Series in five seasons. Those teams were solid, deep teams loaded with good fielders, great pitching and solid, unspectacular hitters. The current Yankees are an All-Star collection of sluggers who don’t field well and their pitching is a bunch of retreads.

Who will get the job? I expect Joe Girardi to get the managing job. He’s young and already impressed people with his Manager of the Year performance in 2006 with the Florida Marlins. He’s a guy who could coach 10-15 years in the Bronx and give the Yankees some long-term stability.

I also expect to see Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez test the free agency market. I see the Chicago Cubs making a big run at Posada to catch for them, while the Angels will open up their wallets and make A-Rod a very rich man. Rivera? I’m sure you’ll see the Phillies make a pass at him, but I see Rivera in Boston in 2008. That’s right, a Red Sox.

Tomorrow, Red Sox vs. Rockies in the World Series.

Labels: Fielding, Odds 'n Ends, Playoffs, Rowand

I’m intrigued by the effect that Citizens Bank Ballpark has on the Phillies. During the 1990s a lot of stadiums got built in the majors and their impact on the game is going to be interesting to observe as time goes on. Gone are places like Riverfront Stadium or the Vet or Three Rivers. Now teams like the Reds, Phillies and Pirates play in gleaming stadiums that take full advantage of the views of the cities or natural phenomena that surround them. Watch riverboats float by on the Ohio at Great American Ballpark in Cincy. Gaze at the Philly skyline at Citizens Bank Ballpark and gaze at riverboats and the city skyline at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.

Generally the dimensions of these ballparks were tailored to suit offense. Great American and Citizens are cozy parks that emphasize offense. Places like Safeco Field in Seattle or Petco Park in San Diego tend towards pitchers, but most new parks are designed to emphasize offense. The long ball draws the fans, they pay tickets, the team makes money.

Citizens Bank in particular has gotten a rap for being a hitters ballpark. It’s something Phillies fans have heard ad naseum for quite some time now and it has more than some basis in fact. It is undeniable that Citizens is very friendly towards home runs hitters, but it isn’t like Coors Field or Chase Field, where all levels of offense are improved. Citizens and Great American Ballpark in Cincy are more alike with each other than they are with Coors Field, the usual gold standard of hitters park. Cozy dimensions, but Cincinnati and Philadelphia have humid air (both sit on rivers) and sit near sea level.

In contrast, Coors, with its thin, dry air and spacious dimensions, is a real hitters park. Not only can you hit a lot of home runs, but when the ball is put into play it is more likely to fall in for a hit. A shot hit to the gap will travel 300 feet 0.3 seconds faster than at sea level, cutting down the effective range of a fielder by 8 or 9 feet, according to Baseball Between the Numbers. I suspect that the dry air of Phoenix helps make the Diamondbacks stadium Chase Field a similar type park, just a little closer to sea level.

I looked at the 2006 numbers from The 2007 Bill James Handbook – I am curious to see what the 2008 Handbook has to say – and saw the following for Citizens:

Batting Average: 103
Runs Scored: 106
Doubles: 105
Home Runs: 122

Basically, Park Factor takes what the phillies and their foes do at home and multiply it by what they did on the road. A factor above 100 favors the hitter, below favors the pitcher. In the case of the Phillies, for example, the Phillies hit 112 home runs at home and their foes hit 121 at Citizens. Total: 233. On the road, the Phillies hit 104 home runs and their foes hit 90. Total: 194. 233 / 194 = 122.

Citizens 122 Home Runs factor ranks it behind the Reds Great American Ballpark (129) and the D-Backs Chase Field (133).

The numbers for batting average and runs scored aren’t bad and are partially explained by the high home run numbers. I checked out Great American and noticed something similar: the Reds and their foes hit a lot of home runs at Great American and that partially drove their other numbers higher artificially. Like Citizens, Great American’s batting average was a 103. Runs were 115. Doubles were 94. Those aren’t tremendous edges for hitters.

Coors, in contrast, is a hitter paradise. Its 114 Home Run factor isn’t dramatic – humidor, anyone? – but batting average is very high (111), as are runs scored (115). Doubles, are, to my surprise, low: 98. Check out Chase Field, deep in the Arizona desert:

Home Runs: 133
Batting Average: 109
Doubles: 108
Runs Scored: 114

That’s a hitters park and that is a place where environmental factors rather than park design, which can be changed, are decisive. The preliminary numbers I got on Park Factors from ESPN’s website indicate that while Citizens was the home run hitters dream park in 2007 (an astonishing 142 park factor), its other numbers were pretty ordinary: 103 run factor, and a 91 doubles factor.

For completeness, because you cannot just look at one season, here is how Citizens has done for the first three seasons of its life:

2004 / 2005 / 2006 / Cum.
HR: 123 / 119 / 122 / 120
BA: 101 / 109 / 103 / 103
2B: 90 / 108 / 105 / 99
R: 109 / 111 / 106 / 108

I think the picture of Citizens Bank Ballpark as a hitters park is incomplete without noting that while it emphasizes home run-hitting, its effect on other aspects of the game is less-than-spectacular. Home run hitters park, yes. Friendly to offense, yes. But I think that a more nuanced look at the numbers needs to be taken. You never hear anyone talking about how Chase Field is a hitters paradise and arguing that the Diamondbacks will never secure free-agent pitching while playing there. Yet the numbers clearly show that Chase Field is lethal to a pitchers ERA, and nobody assails Chase Field with the vigor that people snipe at Citizens with. A little perspective is all I am arguing for here.

Labels: Odds 'n Ends

You might notice that I pruned the blogroll a little, eliminating duplicate entries and blogs that haven't been updated for a while. If you are a Phillies blog and you haven't posted since August, I have categorized you blog as dead. If you are another blog and you haven't updated since June or July, I think you're all done. If anyone wants to add their blog back, please let me know, but you have to tell me that you are back.

Labels: Odds 'n Ends

Labels: Odds 'n Ends, Rollins

I quickly perused the Rockies blogosphere – such as it is – to see what fans up in the Mile High City are saying and thinking about this series. I found myself pleasantly surprised at the quality of discourse. No snide remarks about the city of Philadelphia or the Phillies players like you might see from … I dunno, Mets fans … Nothing defensive or angry or boastful. Good analysis, enthusiasm for their team … It’s hard not to like Rockies fans, if their bloggers are representative of their fans. If the Rockies do upset the Phillies I’ll be pulling for them all of the way. Check out:

Purple Row: a nice blog written by “Rox girl”. Her post today is a good, well-written analysis of today’s game. I’d just like to point out to her, however, that the Rockies made the playoffs in 1995.

Rockies Locker: A Blog written by “chinmusic” that contains a pretty thoughtful analysis of this series. Impressively, he weighs the stats and makes a reluctant conclusion that the Phillies will win. You have to be impressed by someone willing to go with an honest assessment of their team over a hopeful one.

Up in the Rockies gives the Rockies a 3-1 series victory. I disagree, but their analysis is thorough and well-reasoned.

Worth reading.

Labels: Odds 'n Ends, Playoffs