A CITIZEN'S BLOG

The 2008 MLB Draft began yesterday afternoon with the Tampa Bay Rays taking shortstop Tim Beckham with the #1 Overall Pick, perhaps the last time the Rays will be in that position for a long time. The Phillies were busy with nine picks in the first six rounds. Here are a few thoughts:

In a draft that was deep on corner infielders and catcher prospects, as well as college players, the Phillies weren't afraid to be different. Their first four picks and six of their first seven, were high school players. The Phillies first three picks were high school players projected as outfielders. The Phillies chose:

Round:
1. Anthony Hewitt (SS/OF) - Salisbury, High School
1A. Zach Collier (OF) - Chino Hills High School
2. Anthony Grose (OF) - Bellflower High School
2. Jason Knapp (RHP) - North Hunterdon High School
3. Vance Worley (RHP) - Long Beach State College
3A. Jonathan Pettibone (RHP) - Esperanza High School
4. Trevor May (RHP) - Kelso High School
5. Jeremy Hamilton (1B) - Wright State
6. Colby Shreve (RHP) - Southern Nevada Community College

Obviously your attention is drawn to Hewitt and Collier, a pair of talented outfielders with a lot of raw tools who are anywhere from 4-6 years of development away from the major leagues. I wouldn't expect to see them crack the Phillies lineup until 2013 or so at the earliest. But both players are interesting picks in that they break with the Phillies recent focus on pitching and they also buck the trend in baseball towards drafting MLB-ready college kids who could crack lineups by 2010. The Phillies took two guys with a lot of raw talent who could anchor the Phillies outfield in the future. Hewitt looks like a future compliment to Ryan Howard and Chase Utley in the lineup as a #5 hitter, while Collier looks like a future #2 hitter who has been compared with the Angels Garrett Anderson.

It is interesting to me that the Phillies were able to snare the two guys they really wanted, Hewitt and Collier, after it looked like the team might have to choose between them. Keith Law of ESPN thought that Collier was going to slide to the Minnesota Twins at #27, but then Collier slid out of the first round and fell to them in the supplemental first round. The focus, especially from small market teams, on college-ish MLB-ready talent really might pay dividends as the Phillies secured a pair of first-round guys who probably would have gone much higher in the draft in previous years.

According to Baseball America, second-round pick Jason Knapp had an outstanding outwork with the team and the Phillies considered taking him in the Supplemental First Round at #34, but he fell to them in the second round at #71. What impresses me about Knapp is his size: six-foot-five, 215 lbs, which hopefully means that his fastball will come screaming down on hitters like Randy Johnson. Knapp and fellow-second rounder Anthony Grose are raw talents like Collier and Hewitt, which means that the Phillies are going to have a lot of work ahead of them in terms of talent development, but nearly all of these players are guys rated by the talent experts as having big upsides. Grose looks like a lead-off guy with a lot of speed and terrific defensive abilities. Some have compared him to the Dodgers Juan Pierre.

Starting with Knapp, the Phillies took four pitchers with their next five picks. The one who really interests me is May, a Washington State High Schooler who apparently has a fastball clocked in the high-90s and a devastating knuckle-curveball. Can the Phillies keep him from attending Washington State University?

-Generally I thought this was a very good draft for the Phillies. If their first four picks turn out well, the farm system could be dramatically restocked. This is a risky draft which could lay the foundations for great things in 2013-2014, or it could be a disaster and a wasted opportunity. We'll see.

Look for the Phillies to stock up on some mid-level pitchers today and a few project-type players. I think you'll see the Phillies take some catchers and middle infielders in the mid-level rounds today ....

-I thought ESPN's coverage of the Draft was pretty good but there was too much filler at the end and the failure to cover beyond the first round and supplemental first round left an incomplete picture to the viewer. In the future I'd like to see ESPN try and expand their coverage, perhaps starting the first round earlier in the day than two o'clock and following into the second and third rounds.

ESPN's panel was good - any panel featuring Peter Gammons is going to be good - but I would have liked to have seen more of Baseball America's Jim Callis or ESPN's Keith Law. Chris Singleton did a nice job as the token player giving the draftee's perspective on the system amidst the pundits, but he seemed like he had big stretches of time where he had nothing to say. One of the reasons why the NFL Draft does so well is because Mel Kiper, Jr., is there on Draft Day to deliver the definitive word on who this guy from Central Appalachian State is. I would like to see Law, a knowledgeable and articulate presence, on the panel as the expert on all things talent.

-Ed Wade and the Astros earned scorn for taking catcher Jason Castro with the #10 pick. I hope Wade knows what he's doing.

-The Pirates decision to take Pedro Alvarez is a real watershed moment for the Pirates. Either the team has helped itself by laying the foundation for future success - Alvarez has been compared to Manny Ramirez and is the powerful RBI-machine that the Pirates badly need in the middle of their lineup - or they have just doomed themselves to disaster. A year removed from a draft that earned them scorn for ducking on taking a Scott Boras client because of signability issues, they stepped up to the plate and took Alvarez, a major talent who also has Boras negotiating on his behalf. Also given that Pirates GM Neal Huntington is Boras former nemesis ... well, this is a big moment for the Pirates. They need to sign Alvarez and they have little leverage in these negotiations. They are a small-market team that needs to develop talent quickly. This will be interesting ...

Oh yeah, the Phillies played some baseball yesterday, wrapping up a four-game series with the Reds with their third win, a 5-0 shutout by Cole Hamels. The big moment in the game was Manager Charlie Manuel's decision to bench 2007 N.L. MVP Jimmy Rollins for failing to run out a pop fly that turned into a single after a silly little-league-type error by the Reds. It was a gutsy decision which could have blown up on everyone had Rollins reacted badly. Instead, the message was received by Rollins and he took it with a lot of dignity. Manuel's hold on the clubhouse was secure and Rollins displayed a lot of humility and maturity in accepting responsibility and putting team harmony first. This is the kind of moment that separates championship teams from also-rans.

The Phillies went 8-2 on their homestand and sit two and a half games in first heading into a road trip with the Atlanta Braves. More later on today ...

Labels: Braves, Managing, MLB Draft, Rollins, State of the Phillies

Labels: Bourn, Bruntlett, Bullpen, Geary, Lidge, Minors, Pitching, Speed, State of the Phillies

Last night's 9-5 victory over the Rockies was sweet revenge. Too bad we couldn't move that game to last October ... Another rough start for Kyle Kendrick though: 5 IP, 5 ER, 2 K, 2 BB, 2 HR. Kendrick's style, allowing the hitters to make contact and relying on the Phillies fielders, is starting to really bite him in the a--, because now when hitters make contact they are launching home runs. He also needs to avoid issuing these walks. You can get by without getting a lot of strikeouts, but nobody can survive a 1:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, much less Kendrick's 0.72 K/BB ratio (11 walks, 8 strikeouts) ... On the plus side, the rest of the Phillies pitching staff was fine. The relief corps threw the last four innings and allowed just one hit, zero runs, and got five strikeouts.

We're roughly one-eighth of the way through the 2008 baseball season and I thought that I might comment on some things are surprising to me and perhaps to others as well. We'll start with ...

The Not-So-Improved Nats. The Nationals, supposedly new and improved with the acquisitions of Lasting Milledge, Paul Lo Duca, and Elijah Dukes and their new multi-million dollar digs in our Nation's Capitol were supposed to compete. Instead Dukes really hasn't played, Lo Duca stinks (.200 Batting Average), Milledge has been ok (.345 OBP) and superstar Ryan Zimmerman has struggled (2 home runs, 7 RBI, .244 OBP). Strike that. Struggled badly. Meanwhile Nats pitchers have been as bad as advertised, with a 4.73 ERA.

Thunder from the Desert. The 13-5 Diamondbacks are easily the best team in the National League right now and probably in baseball. Forget the Mets, the D-Backs might have bought themselves a pennant when they teamed Dan Haren (3-0, 1.80 ERA, 4 Quality Starts, 6.83 K/9) with Brandon Webb (4-0, 1.86 ERA, 4 Quality Starts, 6.84 ERA). Along with Micah Owings (3-0, 2.29 ERA, 3 Quality Starts, 8.69 K/9), the D-Backs are easily the most deadly team in the majors in pitching. Their offensive unit is playing well too: they've scored 116 runs, which puts them on pace to score 900 or so. Eric Byrnes (.908 OPS) is great, but Justin Upton (5 Home Runs, 13 RBI, 1.068 OPS) has been fantastic.

Injuries. At the moment the Phillies feature a lot of players sitting on the Disabled List. Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Chris Snelling are the notables. Snelling himself, ironically, had been recalled from Lehigh Valley to fill-in for Victorino.

Speed. Thus far in 2008, the Phillies have stolen eight of eleven bases in twenty games, a pretty lethargic total for a team that really cut-loose in 2007, stealing 138 bases in 157 attempts, a success rate of 87.9%. The 138 steals were second-best in the National League after the Mets 200. The Phillies also led the N.L. in triples with 41. Like many sabremetricians, I am distainful of the "small ball"-types that chirp about how teams have to manufacture runs with bunts and steals and the like to score runs. I am a big believer in the idea that the home run is the most efficient means of scoring runs and winning baseball games. However, I do credit the resurgence in interest in speed with playing a major factor in the Phillies 2007 campaign for the N.L. East crowd. Under the careful instruction of First Base Coach Davey Lopes, the Phillies were faster on the bases in 2007. Jimmy Rollins hit 20 triples and stole 41 bases. Victorino hit 3 triples and stole 37 bases in 41 tries. Michael Bourn hit 3 triples and stole 18 bases in 19 tries. That extra-dimension of speed played a major factor in helping the Phillies win the N.L. East.

Fast forward to 2008. In the off-season Davey Lopes was diagnosed with cancer and is currently undergoing treatment. Since undergoing surgery on March 17th he hasn't been with the team and isn't expected to return until May. The team dealt Michael Bourn to the Houston Astros as part of the Brad Lidge / Eric Bruntlett deal. As an Astro, Bourn has successfully stolen eleven of eleven bases, though his absurdly low batting average (.211) constrains his effectiveness. With Jimmy Rollins and Victorino out of the lineup with injuries, the Phillies are left without any major weapons on the bases. Thus far in 2008 they've stolen eight of eleven bases and have hit 2 triples in twenty games. At their current pace the Phillies will hit half as many triples as they hit last year and will steal just 65 bases, or roughly half what they did in 2007.

Power. Some idiot sniped at me when I did a talk-back for another blog about a prediction I had made that Chase Utley was capable of making a run at the triple crown. Apparently this guy thought I was an idiot for believing that Chase Utley could out-homer David Wright, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and the rest. Well ... I looked at the numbers this morning and Chase Utley leads the major leagues with nine home runs. He's also hitting .356 and has 18 RBI (the N.L. leader has 19) ... Pat Burrell has been great too, having hit seven home runs and nineteen RBI. Burrell's 15 walks also give him an astonishing .476 OBP to go along with all of that power ... Chris Coste has made the most of his playing time and owns the team's best OPS: 1.205. What really impresses me about Coste is that he's drawn four walks and has struckout just twice. He's really making a powerful argument that the Phillies ought to play him more and make him their #1 pinch-hitter ... The Phillies are really packing a punch this season. They've hit 33 home runs so far and their team isolated power at the plate is a robust .200 ... Isolated Power is where you eliminate singles from slugging percentage by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage ... I am only concerned that their power is going for naught as they have a pedestrian .337 OBP, which is just seventh in the N.L. As a consequence they've scored just 94 runs to the D-Backs 120.

Pitching. I'm not saying that the Phillies pitchers are as good as the D-Backs, but the team ERA os 3.61 is very, very respectable and suggests that the Phillies are making strides. The rotation is pretty predictable: Hamels (2-2, 1.86 ERA) and Myers (2-1, 3.96 ERA) are both terrific, while Kendrick (1-2, 5.59 ERA) is struggling and Adam Eaton (0-0, 4.74 ERA) and Jamie Moyer (1-1, 4.79 ERA) have both been solid. In Eaton's case, "solid" is a major improvement. What is really startling to me is how well the bullpen has done. Rudy Seanez, Brad Lidge and J.C. Romero all own ERAs of 0.00, and Chad Durbin's 0.64 ERA is right there with them. I'm pleasantly surprised.

Labels: Bourn, Burrell, Durbin, Eaton, Hamels, Howard, Kenderick, Lidge, Moyer, Myers, Pitching, Rollins, Romero, Seánez, Snelling, Speed, State of the Phillies, Utley, Victorino

The Phillies 2008 season kicks off next Monday with Brett Myers taking the mound at 3:05 PM against the Washington Nationals in Citizens Bank Ballpark. I thought that I might give my two cents about this season and how it is going to unfold. If you’ve read my predictions for the National League you’ll know that I am projecting the Phillies to finish second in the N.L. East, edging out the Mets, but finishing behind the Braves and that the Phillies will flame out in the first round against the Diamondbacks. I’ve gotten a very negative reaction from Mets fans …

This will be an interesting season to watch: will the Phillies build on their division title in 2007? Or will last season prove to be a fluke? This will be an important year for the team, but not pivotal. The ’08 Phillies are a young team and will contend in 2009, in 2010 and 2011. The future is bright. Brighter, certainly, then the aging Mets.

The ’08 Phillies look like a team that will win 88-93 or so games, which will put them into the mix for the post-season. The D-Backs boasted the best record in the N.L. last season and that was just 90-72, only a game better than the Phillies. Even with Johan Santana hurling fastballs for the Mets the Phillies have a very good opportunity to make the playoffs this season. With the core of their ’08 team returning, the Phillies remain the team to beat in the N.L. East. Let’s start with the bats:

First off, here are some terms so that you are not totally confused about what I’m talking about. Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage. On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances). Walks per plate appearance (BB/PA): BB / PA = .BB/PA Avg. Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate. Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.

Ordinarily I like to post a massive piece taking everything together, but I’ve found myself deluged at work and desperately trying to finish this project. I’m going to post my thoughts on batting first, then try and finish pitching and fielding later this week. Back to the Phillies …

The 2008 Phillies will have no problem scoring runs. The Phillies 892 runs scored in 2007 led the National league by a margin of 32 over the Colorado Rockies. The Phillies also led the N.L. in On-Base Percentage (.354), in Slugging Percentage (.458), and in triples (41). They finished second in home runs (213), in stolen bases (138). The Phillies lineup is only slightly changed from last season. Gone is Centerfielder Aaron Rowand and his surprisingly productive bat. Rowand hit 27 Home Runs, 45 Doubles, 89 RBI and scored 105 runs in 2007. His 100 Runs Created were a career high for Rowand, a talented hitter who doesn’t draw walks much (just 18 in 2006, 47 last season) and tends to see inconsistent results. In his place the Phillies intend to shift Shane Victorino over the centerfield (more on that later), and platoon Jayson Werth and Geoff Jenkins in rightfield. Werth and Jenkins will slide into Rowand’s slot and platoon as the #6 hitter. Pedro Feliz replaces the ineffectual trio of Wes Helms, Abraham Nunez and Greg Dobbs as the Phillies everyday third baseman, while Carlos Ruiz takes the reins as the regular catcher, a job he’s had off-and-on for the last two seasons.

Probable Lineup:
SS – Jimmy Rollins
CF – Shane Victorino
2B – Chase Utley
1B – Ryan Howard
LF – Pat Burrell
RF – Jayson Werth / Geoff Jenkins
3B – Pedro Feliz
C – Carlos Ruiz
P – Pitcher

Jimmy Rollins, the 2007 N.L. MVP, leads off for the Phillies in 2008. Rollins was spectacular in 2007, posting a career-high 124 Runs Created, and leading the league in triples for the fourth time in his career. Rollins batted .296 (.345 OBP), hit 30 home runs, 20 triples, 38 doubles, scored 139 runs, batted in 94, and stole 41 of the 47 bases he tried to steal. Simply put, Rollins was the catalyst for the Phillies N.L.-best offense. When Rollins first joined the Phillies he was primarily there for his speed. In his first season he stole 46 bases in 54 tries. Rollins still retained his speed: his 20 triples was a career high, and the 41 steals were fifth-best in the N.L. Rollins is also a superb baserunner: he didn’t make a single baserunning out last season and gained an extra 32 bases with his savvy running, according to the 2008 Bill James Handbook … 2007 was the culmination of a long maturation in Rollins game that began in 2004 when he underwent the tutelage of Tony Gwynn, the legendary contact hitter, prior to the 2004 season. After striking out 108, 103 and 113 times during his first three MLB seasons, Rollins has lowered that to 73, 71, 80 and 85 in ‘07, becoming a much better contact hitter. In addition to making contact, Rollins has also refined his power stroke. Prior to 2006, Rollins career-high for home runs had been 14. He hit 25 in 2006 and 30 last season, major increases in his raw power at the plate:

ISO:
2001: .145
2002: .135
2003: .124
2004: .166
2005: .141
2006: .201
2007: .235

Having a guy at the top of the order with so much speed and power at the plate is a rare combination and remind many of Rickey Henderson when he helped the Oakland A’s and Toronto Blue Jays to World Series titles in 1989 and 1993 respectively … as an aside, Rickey Henderson’s MVP campaign in 1990 – 28 home runs, 119 runs scored, 65 steals in 75 tries, a .439 OBP – compares very much to J.Roll’s ’07 campaign … Much was made about the fact that Rollins led the N.L. in outs last year with 527, but much less was made over the fact that Rollins also led the N.L. in plate appearances with 778. Rollins gained nearly as many bases as MVP-runner up Matt Holliday (386 to 380), and played a more-challenging defensive position well. Holliday also plays in a much more offensive-friendly park … Without Rollins exceptional production, the Phillies would have been sunk in 2007. How will J.Roll perform in 2008? Well, the 2008 Bill James Handbook projects a decline for Jimmy Rollins in 2008: 21 Home Runs, 10 triples, 41 doubles, 120 runs scored, 76 RBI, .339 OBP, 35 steals in 45 tries, and 108 Runs Created. No doubt that Rollins won’t quite achieve what he did last season, but I think he’ll hit more like 12-15 triples, and 22-25 home runs. He’ll still be a major threat and a major reason why the Phillies are a playoff contender … Next is Shane Victorino, a talent the Phillies stole from the San Diego Padres in the Rule 5 Draft in 2004. After playing most of the season in a part-time role in ‘06 (injuries to Aaron Rowand got him into centerfield for some time, then Victorino got some playing time after Bobby Abreu was dealt to the Yankees), Victorino got to become the Phillies everyday rightfielder in 2007 but missed about a month of the season with injuries. The Flyin’ Hawaiian (Victorino grew up on Maui) is a superb defensive outfielder (more on that later) and a speed demon. Victorino hit eight triples in 2006, a taste for the Phillies of what he would accomplish in 2007. Victorino hit another three triples and stole 37 of the 41 bases he tried to steal. Victorino does have to become a smarter player on the basepaths, however: he made four baserunning outs in 2007 and gained just seven extra bases with his running. Victorino also doesn’t have Rollins power at the plate: he hit just twelve home runs in 2007. His isolated power at the plate was just .142. He gives the Phillies exactly what they need in the two slot: a fast guy who gets on base (.347 OBP) and has a little power. The 2008 Bill James Handbook, by the way, projects Victorino to pretty much repeat his performance last season: 20 doubles, 5 triples, 12 home runs, 25 steals in 32 tries, a .336 OBP and 64 Runs Created … Consistency thy name is Chase Utley. I have a feeling that I’ll be writing a lot about Mr. Utley in the coming weeks for the 2008 season because he is my odds-on favorite to be the Phillies candidate for the MVP award, and if the Phillies are in the 2008 playoff hunt, he WILL be one of the top candidates. Had Utley not have missed a month of the season last year with a broken hand I think he might have actually beaten J.Roll out for the award. Chase Utley is a nearly perfect player: he’s a power hitter with speed who gets on base, hits well in the clutch and is the best fielder at a challenging defensive position. Last season Utley was third in the N.L. in batting average (.332), fifth in On-Base Percentage (.410), seventh in slugging percentage (.566), first in Hit By Pitches (25), first in Runs Created per 27 Outs (8.1), and he finished third in doubles (48, but he almost certainly would have bested Matt Holiday’s 50 had he not been injured). Simply put, Utley’s MVP candidacy died when he lost a month of the season after being hit by a pitch on July 26th against the Nationals. Had he not he probably would have edged Rollins out based on the fact that Utley’s adjusted OPS was better than his – 145 to 118 – and was even better than Ryan Howard’s 144 … Since taking the second base job in 2005 when Placido Polanco was dealt to the Tigers, Utley has been astonishingly consistent. Look at his three-year totals for Home Runs (28, 32, 22), for Doubles (39, 40, 48), for RBI (105, 102, 103) and OBP (.376, .379, .410). When the stakes are high Utley shines. Look at Utley’s BA/RISP:

2005: .309
2006: .308
2007: .304

I think 2008 will be Utley’s season to shine. He consistently plays a tough defensive position well, hits for power and average and runs the bases well. If Utley manages the feat he’d be the third Phillie to win the MVP award in three years, feat a trio of teammates haven’t done in the National League since Mort Cooper, Stan Musial and Marty Marion did it in ’42 – ’44 … I should note that Roger Maris, Mickey Mantle and Elston Howard did it from ’61 – ’63 in the American League … I think Utley’s chances are good … Here’s a fun fact: in 2007 Chase Utley finished eighth in OPS (On-Base Percentage plus Slugging Percentage) in the National League against sliders (1.086), against changeups (1.067), and against fastballs (.977). That’s consistency … Well, we’ve discussed one MVP and a potential MVP, so let’s discuss the other MVP on the Phillies roster: Ryan Howard. The $10 Million dollar man had failed to add an award to his mantle for the first time last season after being named the 2005 Rookie of the Year and 2006 National League MVP, but he still powered the Phillies with 47 home runs and 136 RBI. Off to a terrific start this spring it will be interesting to see if the Phillies and Howard can kiss and make up, or is the split between the two irreconcilable? If Howard were to flee the Phillies as a free agent and leave for Los Angeles or New York, the calamity the Phillies would be faced with would be awful. In the here and now, Howard powers the Phillies attack with his big bat. Last season Howard was second in the N.L. in home runs (three behind Prince Fielder), second in RBI (one behind Matt Holliday), fourth in walks (107), fifth in slugging percentage (.584), and first in strikeouts … In the last three seasons Ryan Howard has struck out 380 times in 1,700 plate appearances, meaning that he strikes-out 28.2% of the time. I personally think the strikeout is over-rated. An out is an out is an out. What is the big deal if the scorers card reads “K” or “F-7”? Arguably a strikeout is better than a walk: it takes a minimum of three pitches but usually five or six to actually strikeout. A pop-fly could be one pitch or two. What’s better: an out that uses up the pitchers arm? Or a quick out on a contact play? I’ll take the strikeout. The criticism that Howard strikes out too much is nonsense, I believe. Howard’s 4.20 pitches per plate appearance were third-best in the N.L. after Pat Burrell and Todd Helton … Howard plays a vital role in the Phillies offense because he ability to bash the 400-foot home run clears the bases and gives the Phillies the big innings that power them to 7-4 victories. I look for Howard to top 50+ home runs again this season and to hit 140-150 RBI. Is a second MVP award out of reach? Not really. Ryan Howard has the ability to build on his MVP campaign in 2006 with an even better one in 2008. He also has, according to the 2008 Bill James Handbook, an 11% chance of hitting 700 or home runs, which means that he could challenge Barry Bonds 762 home runs one day in the future. At 129 in just two and a half MLB seasons, he’s well on his way … Pat Burrell enters the sixth and final year of a deal that he signed in the wake of his spectacular 2002 season, when he seemed to step into Scott Rolen’s shoes and become the focal point of the franchise. Burrell hit 37 home runs, 39 doubles and 116 RBI with a .376 OBP that season, a real breakthrough for the first overall pick in the 1998 Draft, and numbers that seemed to cement the powerful, athletic Burrell as the face of the franchise. He was going to do what Scott Rolen couldn’t or wouldn’t: become the greatest Phillie since Mike Schmidt. With the announcement that the Phillies had acquired Jim Thome heading into the ’03 season, the sky seemed the limit for Burrell. Schmidt, as I recall, predicted the duo would hit 100+ home runs together … Instead, Burrell’s horrific 2003 campaign, where he hit just 21 home runs and 64 RBI, and saw his adjusted OPS fall from 146 to 90, destroyed his promising future … Burrell’s Win Shares plunged from 25 to 9 … It was a terrible decline for a player who had once seemed like the next superstar on a team that hadn’t had one in twenty years. He spent nearly all season in 2004 regaining his stroke. Burrell’s OBP rebounded to .365, but his raw power at the plate remained flat: .195 ISO in 2003, .198 ISO in 2004. Burrell had 117 RBI in 2005, a career-high, but his production wasn’t quite the same. He still put up great numbers in ’05 – ’07, but he became a different player statistically – more of an OBP threat, more of a defensive liability – and the trauma of ’03 – ’04 remained in the minds of Phillies fans ... The shame of it is that while Pat Burrell isn’t the same player that he was in 2002, he’s a critical cog in the Phillies offense. In 2007 Pat Burrell hit 30 home runs, had 97 RBI, drew a whopping 114 walks and posted an OBP of .400 … Burrell was third in the N.L. in walks and ninth in On-Base Percentage. His 4.22 pitches per plate appearance were second to just the Rockies Todd Helton at 4.36. Burrell is no-longer an aggressive free-swinger at the plate. He’s a cautious, meticulous player. Unfortunately people buy into the image of the swaggering free swinger, so Burrell’s contributions go entirely unnoticed. The fact that he takes 63.8% of the pitches he sees – fourth in the N.L. – means that Burrell isn’t up there hacking away heroically. Interestingly, 40% of Burrell’s plate appearances ended in walks or strikeouts: outcomes where the ball was never put into play. The fact that he is often removed for a defensive substitution now is another blow to his image as the swaggering heir to Mike Schmidt. The fact is that after Ryan Howard, Burrell might be the most powerful bat the Phillies have in their lineup:

HR/AB:
Howard: 11.3
Burrell: 15.7
Rollins: 23.9
Utley: 24.9

After Howard, whose bat moves runners off the bases more efficiently? No, Phillies fans don’t trust Pat Burrell because he isn’t the heroic leader of the team anymore. Nobody who draws a walk 20% of the time he goes to the plate can be a leader, can he? … What can Burrell do in 2008? I see another 110-120 walk season with 30-35 home runs, 95-105 RBI and little respect in store for Burrell this season. I also think he’ll get off to a nice start too, because his OPS in the second half of the season last years was 1.010, seventh-best in the N.L. … The Phillies plan to platoon Jayson Weth and Geoff Jenkins in rightfield in 2008. Werth, the former Dodger, joined the Phillies last season enjoyed impressive success as the Phillies fourth outfielder, hitting 8 home runs with 49 RBI and 43 runs scored in limited action (just 304 plate appearances). Werth’s 55 Runs Created in 183 Outs meant that Werth had 8.11 Runs Created per 27 Outs, one of the best percentages in all of baseball, had he earned enough plate appearances to qualify. What was impressive about Werth’s performance was how he consistently got hits when he put the ball into play (.386 BA/BIP), worked counts to draw walks (.145 walks per plate appearance, which helped his OBP to a staggering .404) and the fact that he didn’t ground into a single double play last season. That’s right. Not a one. Zip. Zero. Zilch. Werth also hit an astonishing .379 with runners in scoring position. Naturally, I don’t expect Werth to entirely replicate his impressive .298 batting average in 2008, but his OBP ought to be in that .360 - .370 range again. Not just an OBP machine, Werth has impressive skill at the plate in terms of power: his 22 extra-base hits might not sound impressive, but given his limited action they were impressive. Werth;s Isolated Power at the plate was an impressive .161 … Jenkins, a left-handed hitter, will join the right-handed Werth in the outfield platoon. Geoff Jenkins was a long-time member of the Milwaukee Brewers and no longer fit into their plans. Might Jenkins acquisition, like Werth’s and Greg Dobbs and Chris Coste’s and David Dellucci’s, be another savvy move made by the Phillies high-command to rescue a seemingly washed up player from the slag heap and find a useful role? Jenkins isn’t the solid get-on-base with some power guy that Werth is. Jenkins is a slugger: his 32 walks in 464 plate appearances gave him an average .069 BB/PA. Jenkins hit 21 home runs and 24 doubles for the Brewers and posted a .216 isolated power last season. I hope, in comparing Werth and Jenkins, that the Phillies give more playing time to Werth and utilize Jenkins in later innings as a pinch-hitter when his capacity to stroke 400-foot home runs might be more useful. Jenkins and Werth give the Phillies a flexible platoon to replace Rowand, who used to hit in the sixth slot. I know there was much hand-wringing from Phillies fans over Rowand’s departure in the off-season, but it is silly. The Phillies could never have offered Rowand the money that the Giants, so desperate to move out of the Barry Bonds era, could have. Inking Rowand, an over-rated defensive outfielder who enjoyed a career year at the plate last season to a long-term deal would have been foolish. Check out the numbers the Bill James Handbook projects Jenkins, Werth and Rowand to post this season:

Runs Created / 27 Outs (Projected):
Jayson Werth: 6.12
Aaron Rowand: 5.63
Geoff Jenkins: 5.29

Rowand was a free-swinger who surprised everyone with an impressive .345 BA/BIP last season. Werth, and to a lesser-extent Jenkins, are savvier hitters at the plate than Rowand. Hard as it may be for Phillies fans to accept, the Phillies will hit better with Werth and Jenkins than Rowand … Moving along to the seventh slot in the Phillies lineup we encounter Pedro Feliz. The Phillies got awful production out of their third basemen in 2007, a sad fact for a team that featured the greatest third baseman of all-time just a quarter century ago. Greg Dobbs, Wes Helms and Abraham Nunez all played significant time and all, to varying degrees, failed to deliver consistent production. Helms, acquired from the Florida Marlins, was a flop, hitting .198 with runners in scoring position, just 24 extra-base hits (and just five of those were home runs), a horrible .297 OBP and an OPS+ of 88. Nunez had an OBP of .318 and an OPS of 79. Dobbs hit better last season (see below) but remains more of a pinch-hitter type of player than an every day player. The Phillies hope all of that changes with Feliz, a former San Francisco Giant. I’m frankly not impressed by the move, despite Feliz’s hot start in spring training. Perhaps Feliz will post better numbers playing in a cozy park like Citizens Bank, but some of the numbers suggest that Feliz will have issues. Let’s start with the fact that Feliz has had a sub-.300 OBP each of the last three seasons: .290 in ’07, .282 in ’06, and .295 in ’05. So the Phillies didn’t acquire Feliz for his capacity to get on base – his .049 BB/PA was the third-worst in the National League last season – can Feliz hit the ball? Well, Feliz has hit 84 home runs over the last four seasons, but that isn’t that impressive in this modern age. Disturbingly, Feliz’s isolated power has been on a trend downwards: .209 in 2004, .172 in 2005, .184 in 2006, and .165 last season. Feliz hit well with runners in scoring position last season – .310 – but in every other respect, his performance last season ought not to fill Phillies fans with hope. It should fill them with dread … Finally we get down to the catchers slot. With Rod Barajas gone the catchers slot firmly belongs to Carlos Ruiz. After being over-shadowed by Chris Coste, the thirty-something minor-leaguer (whose book I am busy reading and will shortly post a review of) who burst onto the scene in 2006, Ruiz got a lot of playing time last year and made the most of it. He hit just six home runs, but hit an impressive 29 doubles and two triples in 429 plate appearances. Surprisingly for a catcher, he was successful in six of his seven stolen base attempts. Ruiz displayed a good eye at the plate, drawing 42 walks against 49 strikeouts. His .280 batting average with runners in scoring position was pretty good. The only real surprise when looking at Ruiz’s stats was that he grounded into 17 double plays, an awfully high percentage for a guy who doesn’t play more than 70-80% of the time … That’s the Phillies starting lineup, a fearsome collection of bats that will score 850-to-900 runs next season. Here is what the Phillies bench will probably look like:

Bench:
OF – So Taguchi
IF/ OF – Greg Dobbs
IF – Wes Helms
IF – Eric Buntlett
IF / C- Chris Coste

Of the Phillies bench players, the first bat off the bench (after Jenkins or Werth) will be Greg Dobbs, who hit ten home runs and 55 RBI in 2007 in very limited action. Dobbs, who never got to play much in Seattle, finally got a chance to show what he can do. The Phillies like Dobbs a lot because he can play first base, he can play third, and he can play in the outfield. He’s the sort of versatile guy you want on your team … Chris Coste is a great story – give me a few days and I’ll finally get finished typing my review of his book, The 33-Year old Rookie – a career Minor Leaguer who jumped around in the Red Sox, Pirates and Indians systems before finding his way to Philadelphia in 2006. Pressed into duty with the injuries to Mike Lieberthal and Sal Fasano, Coste stunned observers by hitting .328 (.376 OBP) along with 7 home runs and 32 RBI in just 213 plate appearances. Coste played more sparingly in 2007, getting about 80 fewer turns at the plate and hitting .279. Coste’s OPS fell from .881 to .730 last season. The only thing I don’t like about Coste is his refusal to draw walks. He drew just four last season in 137 plate appearances and ten in 213 in 2006. Usually, I think an inability to draw walks is fatal to a player’s performance, but I still like seeing Chris Coste’s #27 on the Phillies roster. His defense improved last year (more on that later) and he became a more rounded player. He seems fated to be the Phillies backup catcher and a dangerous bat off the bench … Eric Bruntlett was a throw-in piece to the Brad Lidge deal and he seems fated to play the role of the new Abraham Nunez: the light-hitting defensive player you never want to see holding a bat at the plate in the bottom of the ninth. Bruntlett played sparingly with the Astros over the last few years and when he did he contributed little to the team’s offense. Bruntlett’s OPS for the last several years has been .705 in 2005, .695 in 2006, and .629 last season … So Taguchi joins the Phillies after spending the last several years with the St. Louis Cardinals as their reserve outfielder / pinch-hitter / pinch-runner. Taguchi is this year’s Michael Bourn, the speedy outfielder who stole 18 of 19 bases in a largely pinch-runner / defensive replacement role in 2007 for the Phillies. Taguchi has hit just 19 home runs in his MLB career, but has stolen 36 of 48 bases. Disturbingly, in exceedingly limited play last year Taguchi grounded into ten double plays … Securing the Phillies final roster slot will be Wes Helms. Based on comments from General Manager Pat Gillick the Phillies seem likely to bring 14 position players and 11 pitchers north with them, but the Phillies might go with 12 pitchers and 13 position players if they feel that they need a deeper bullpen. If they go with 12 pitchers then Helms won’t have a job anymore. (That’s good news for Clay Condrey, who seems likely to make the team only if Helms doesn’t.) I personally would prefer to see Condrey make the team over Helms. Helms was awful in 2007, hitting just five home runs and 39 RBI (and 24 Runs Created). The Phillies brought him onto the team after his strong part-time performance with the Marlins in 2006, when he posted a .390 OBP and 45 Runs Created in just 240 At-Bats. Helms OBP collapsed almost 100 points to .297 last year and he didn’t hit for power at all. The consequence was the Phillies had a light-hitting power hitter who grounded into a lot of double plays: ten. Perhaps 2007 was a fluke, but I am skeptical. Helms will have to do a lot better in ’08 to justify a roster spot, especially since the Phillies have a third baseman – Pedro Feliz – and a capable backup – Greg Dobbs – already.

What kind of a performance will the Phillies turn in this season? I’m going to project them to hit about 200 home runs, to steal 100-110 bases, to hit 320-330 doubles, and to score 900 runs. Ryan Howard will top 50 home runs and Chase Utley will make a powerful statement to MVP voters with an OBP over .400, a .300+ Batting Average, 110 RBI, 25 or so Home Runs, and 50 Doubles. If you are looking for a player to surprise you, I’d take a look at Shane Victorino. I think he’ll improve his OBP this season and will steal 45 to 50 bases, as well as hit 7 to 10 triples.

So those are the hitters. I ought to post the pitchers on Thursday and the Fielders on Friday or Saturday. No guarantees.

Labels: Burrell, Coste, Dobbs, Feliz, Helms, Howard, Power-Hitting, Predictions, Rollins, Ruiz, State of the Phillies, Utley, Victorino, Werth

Good so far? Okay, here are the stats I refer to with respect to fielding stats: Zone Rating (ZR): Is a stat which measures a player’s defensive ability by measuring plays they should have made. Admittedly, this is a stat left open to subjective opinions. Fielding Percentage: (Putouts + Assists) / (Putouts + Assists + Errors). How often the player successfully handled the ball. Range Factor: (Putouts + Assists) * 9 / IP. Essentially measures how much a player is involved in defensive plays. Unearned Run Average (UERA): (Unearned Runs Allowed * 9) / IP. Basically how many unearned runs a defense allows.

Not too confused? Okay, here are the stats I refer to defined with respect to pitching stats: Earned Run Average (ERA): Runs Allowed * 9 / Innings Pitched = What a pitcher would give up if they hurled a nine-inning game. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): (((13 * HR) + (3 * BB) – (2 * K)) / IP) + League Factor. Basically a measure of how a pitcher would have done if he had an average defense behind him. Home Runs per 9 Innings (HR/9): (HR * 9) / IP. Walks per 9 Innings (BB/9): (BB * 9) / IP. Strikeouts per 9 Innings (K/9): (K * 9) / IP.

Enough with the numbers. This is going to be a great baseball season. Let’s begin our analysis with …

Labels: National League, Predictions, State of the Phillies

Last night I appeared on Philly Sports Talk Now to discuss the 2008 season and the Phillies. My thanks again to Jim Dogg and Rich for having me on their show. I always have a blast. Click here for the podcast.

Labels: Odds 'n Ends, Predictions, State of the Phillies

Spring Training is under way and the Phillies are 2-2 with a 7-7 tie with the Yankees thrown into the mix. Here are some preliminary observations …

Pitching … Thus far the Phillies team ERA sits at a hefty 6.25. The team has tossed 36 innings and surrendered 25 earned runs (I’m not including the numbers from yesterday’s tie in the mix). They’ve surrendered 2.00 home runs per nine innings, 4.50 walks per nine innings and 6.50 strikeouts per nine innings and have a 1.44 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Two pitching performances have stood out as being outstanding:

Jamie Moyer, the ageless wonder, hurled three innings on the first day of spring training and surrendered just one hit, didn’t allow a run, a home run or a walk and struck-out three hitters. Not bad.

Travis Blackley, the Phillies Rule 5 Draftee fighting for a roster spot, tossed three shut-out innings as well, allowing just on hit, no walks or home runs, and struck-out two hitters. This performance thus far strongly suggests that Blackley is in the running to make the Phillies Opening Day roster and stay with the team in 2008.

Carlos Carrasco, the Phillies highly-touted rookie, tossed three innings and struck-out three, allowing just three hits and no runs against the Yankees. Nice job.

Performances that ought to worry Phillies fans … Temporary closer Tom Gordon has pitched two-thirds of an inning and allowed two runs on two hits and a walk … In two innings of work, Adam Eaton surrendered five hits (one a home run) and two runs.

As yet there isn’t a whole lot of data to extract positive clues from, but the preliminary outcomes suggest that the Phillies pitching is going to have some weak points.

Over on the offensive side, many Phillies hitters are off to big starts. Carlos Ruiz is hitting .667 on four-of-six at the plate with two doubles and an RBI. Pedro Feliz is hitting .571 on four-of-seven hitting with two doubles and an RBI. Ryan Howard is four-for-ten with two doubles and a home run and three RBI, while Chase Utley is three-for-eight with three doubles and two RBI.

Some Phillies are struggling – Pat Burrell is one-for-six and Jimmy Rollins is one-for-seven – but these are traditionally slow-starting hitters. Wes Helms – zero-for-six – has lost his position as the third baseman and won’t mount much of an argument to reclaim it with this spring performance.

Quick Eagles discussion … The Birds have made some nice moves in free agency, inking Chris Clemons and Assante Samuel to deals to strengthen the defensive unit. Samuel is a real shut-down corner who will strengthen the Eagles pass-rush by locking down wideouts. I hope the Eagles resist the temptation to deal Lito Shepard and keep him and Sheldon Brown to play next to Samuel. Having three Pro Bowl quality cornerbacks can’t hurt in a division where you play Plaxico Burress and T.O., can it? Clemons is a little under-sized and may not be able to fight through the rigors on the NFL regular season as a starter, but the team seemed committed to a rotation-style strategy on the defensive line … I’ve been very impressed by the splash that the Cleveland Browns have made this off-season, keeping Derek Anderson and Jamal Lewis, their quarterback and running back respectively, and acquiring game-breaking wideout Donte Stallworth, the former Eagle. The Eagles – Browns game this year is going to be a big, big battle.

Labels: Batting, Blackley, Burrell, Carrasco, Gordon, Helms, Howard, Moyer, Pitching, Rollins, Spring Training, State of the Phillies

General Manager Pat Gillick, in an interview recently on sports talk radio, recently declined to give Manager Charlie Manuel a vote of confidence and state that Manuel will be the manager of the red pinstripes in 2008. I’m not surprised at all to see Gillick uninterested in Manuel returning, and I actually am surprised to see that Manuel is still the Phillies skipper. Gillick, remember, took over the team in 2006 and still kept Manuel on, even though Manuel had been hired and had worked as an advisor for the Phillies old regime. After the Phillies surprising run at the playoffs in ’06, I am sure that Gillick felt he had no choice but keep Manuel on for ’07, but short of the Phillies making the playoffs and doing some damage (making the World Series?) I think that Gillick will hand Manuel his pink slip at the end of the season.

So as the days close on the Manuel era I thought I might take stock a little bit. There are three questions worth asking:

Is Manuel an effective manager? I submit so. Compare Manuel’s record to that of Larry Bowa, Manuel’s predecessor:

Larry Bowa: 337-308 (.522)
Charlie Manuel: 233-204 (.533)

The difference between the two is miniscule. Bowa’s teams went 86-76 in 2001, 2002 and 2004, his worst record being a 80-81 finish in 2003. The Phillies finished second in ’01 and ’04 and third in ’02 and ’03. Manuel’s teams finished second in 2005 (88-74) and 2006 (85-77) and currently seem destined to finish second again in 2007 (with an 86-76 record). Sure, the Phillies haven’t made the playoffs under Bowa or Manuel, but they’ve won under both managers.

Credit Manuel, however, for keeping the Phillies competitive despite struggles in terms of major injuries to key members on the roster (Jim Thome in 2005, Aaron Rowand in 2006, Chase Utley, et al., in 2007) and despite slow starts. The Phillies were .490 under Bowa in April and .424 under Manuel. Imagine if the Phillies didn’t get off to such sluggish starts these last few years: the team plays .555 baseball after April under Manuel and .528 under Bowa.

If your curious, the Phillies would have averaged 90 wins in a season if they played at their post-April pace under Manuel.

Tactically, I think Manuel makes good decisions. He's not someone who over-manages and coaches himself right out of a game. According to the 2007 Bill James Handbook, he used the fewest lineups in the N.L., he was reluctant to yank starters from games, he didn't sacrifice bunt or base-steal or try many hit-and-runs, instead relying on his team's strength, its capacity to hit the ball and hit the ball hard to score runs. A good manager days to his team's strengths.

Who will replace him? There are two candidates that spring to mind and they both sit on the Phillies bench next to Manuel. The first is Jimy Williams, the former coach of the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Astros. The 64-year old Williams has worked with Gillick before as coach of the Blue Jays from 1986 to 1989, so there is a relationship between the two. Gillick would probably feel comfortable with Williams holding the reins, however …

I think the real candidate to replace Manuel stands behind the first base bag: Davey Lopes.

This season you’ve seen real aggressiveness on the Phillies part to press aggressively on the base-paths and steal bases. Credit the Phillies newfound aggressiveness to Lopes, whose energy and enthusiasm and passion for the running game makes him Manuel’s heir apparent. True, he’s not much younger than Williams (62), and doesn’t have as much experience as a manager as Williams (340 games with the Brewers vs. 1,701), but Lopes has energy and passion, and he is selling the gospel of the running game. The Phillies under Manuel seem like an N.L. Moneyball team, reliant on the walk and the three-run home run to generate offense. With the tide turning against Moneyball and home runs in the minds of managers and pundits, Gillick and the Phillies management must be impressed with how aggressively Lopes has pushed the running game. Despite playing in a park tailor-made for bash ball, the ’07 Phillies rank second in the N.L. in stolen bases with 92. This is a much more aggressive running team, a factor I credit evenly to Lopes influence and to updates in the Phillies personnel (specifically, Shane Victorino and Michael Bourn).

Can someone do a better job? Manuel’s stumbles in April are interesting to analyze here. People fault Manuel for being too laid-back in handling his players and submit that the Phillies struggles at the outset of the season are a product of Manuel’s lack of intensity. Is that true? Bowa’s teams struggled in April too and went on to play better ball later in the season and nobody would mistake Larry Bowa for Charlie Manuel. The ’04 Phillies got off to nearly the same start – 10-11 – as Manuel did the next three seasons as skipper: 10-14 in ’05, 10-14 in ’06 and 11-14 this season. I don’t think intensity is an issue here, and I don’t think intensity is a plus either. Gene Mauch mercilessly rode his teams, and the ’64 Phillies boast one of the most epic collapses in sports history. The ’86 California Angels blew a 3-1 lead in the ALCS and dropped three in a row to the Boston Red Sox. Intense managers ride their teams into the group. Manuel was temperamentally well-suited to managing a veteran ball club like the Phillies.

What about the weather? Well, the Phillies are built around the big bang theory of baseball. April, with the rainy weather in the Northeast, is hardly the best time of year for the Phillies brand of baseball. In July and August, with the blisteringly hot weather, is great for big bang baseball. Any coincidence that the Phillies do well at this time of the season?

I hope everyone enjoyed the weekend. Tomorrow, a look at the Phillies playoff prospects.

Labels: Managing, State of the Phillies

… The Phillies lost their 10,000th game. As I predicted, Adam Eaton bore the loss for number ten thousand. I think the significance of 10,000 losses is somewhat overplayed, but it does give the Phillies a little immortality and a little media attention when they seem to warrant so little from the national media.


They are the losingest [is that a word?] team in baseball history, the first team to lose so many games. Quite a distinction to have isn’t it? Sports Illustrated had a nice little piece in last week’s issue containing quotes from the Phillies recent past about the team’s futility. The principle lure of the Chicago Cubs is their futility, the lovable losers who haven’t won a World Series since 1908. The Boston Red Sox built their identity for the better part of eighty years on the fact that they traded away the greatest player in baseball history. Both teams are beloved by their long-suffering fans. An entire movie – Fever Pitch – was built around the idea that a seemingly sane and normal guy put his love of the Red Sox before his relationships with women. Stephen King has written often about the Red Sox in his books. Books, documentaries, websites devoted to the Red Sox and Cubs abound.


Why haven’t the Phillies built a similar following? There are a few possibilities: Philadelphia, the blue-collar town it is, isn’t full of narcissistic writers the way New England is. The Phillies have no one traumatic event that shook the team to the core like the Babe Ruth deal, Bill Buckner’s error, or Bucky Dent’s home run. Unlike the Cubs, the Phillies haven’t always played in attractive stadiums full of ivy on the outfield walls (admit it Cubs fans, 90% of the appeal of Cubs baseball is Wrigley Field). Add in that the Cubs actually were a strong team at the turn of the century and won the World Series twice (1907 & 1908), as compared to the fact that the Phillies didn’t win until 1980 – thus becoming the last of the original sixteen teams to win the World Series, and it doesn’t surprise anyone that the Phillies barely register on the radar of the national media.


The fact that the Phillies get notice for their futility only is something that irks me. Here are the all-time leaders in losses:


Philadelphia Phillies: 10,000
Boston/Milwaukee/Atlanta Braves: 9,677
Chicago Cubs: 9,421
Pittsburgh Pirates: 9,336
Cincinnati Reds: 9,335
St. Louis Cardinals: 9,152


I thought it was interesting that nobody is mocking the St. Louis Cardinals for losing over 9,000 games in their long history, or the Braves for being closer to 10,000 losses than 9,000. The Philadelphia Phillies have existed since 1883. They’ve lost a lot of games. They’ve also won a lot: 8,805. The Mets have only been around since 1962 and they’ve already lost 3,775 games. The Mariners? Been around for thirty years and have lost 2,541 games. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays will hit 1,000 losses this season for certain and they’ve only been around for a decade. They have a worse winning percentage than the Phillies!: .399 vs. .468 … As do the Texas Rangers: .467 vs. .468 … And the Colorado Rockies: .465 vs. .468 …

… The Phillies are still in the playoff hunt. Right at that .500 mark (okay, a game below it) and they are still holding on, just six games behind the Mets, despite some serious stumbles along the way. After the Phillies weather this series in San Diego with the Padres, they have some smooth sailing coming up: Nats and Pirates at home, then the Cubbies in Wrigley. The Phillies don’t get to match-up again with the Braves until August 10 and the Mets until August 27. I know it is encoded in the DNA of Phillies fans to be pessimistic and anxious about the team’s prospects, but people shouldn’t.

The Mets, by the way, have amazing resiliency. After looking vulnerable in mid-June, they’ve been playing some good ball of late. The stretch in late-June / early-July where they were playing 18 games in 17 days actually turned out well: one postponement, ten wins and seven losses. I was wrong. These guys are for real. Damn…

… The Phillies signed first-round pick Joe Savery. Savery is off to beautiful Williamsport, PA to join the Crosscutters in the New York – Penn League. Unfortunately Savery has missed the first month of their season and probably won’t get more than four or five starts in before the Crosscutters season sends on September 7th.

The Crosscutters are 14-15, by the way, and sit three games out of first place in their division. Their top player thus far this season has been Tyler Mach, their second baseman and the Phillies fourth-round pick (143rd overall) in the draft. In 21 games, Mach has 15 extra-base hits. Keep an eye on him.

Schedule for next week:

Monday: Thoughts on 756
Tuesday: Small-Ball Index
Wednesday: Farm Report - Lakewood
Thursday: Is the Phillies Starting Pitching Bad?
Friday: Farm Report - Clearwater

Labels: Braves, Mets, Odds 'n Ends, Playoffs, State of the Phillies

A few years ago … well, specifically on July 11, 2005 … I wrote a State of the Phillies address that I imagined Ed Wade, then the Phillies General Manager, delivering to the media, a la the State of the Union, inside of Citizens Bank Ballpark. It was generally well-received, but I thought that I might turn that a little on its ear this year.

Few people know this, but the State of the Union used to be delivered in written form, in massive bound volumes where the President laboriously laid out how wonderful things were in the U.S. thanks to their leadership. The first State of the Union, delivered by George Washington in 1790, was given as a speech, but that was discontinued when Thomas Jefferson became President in 1801. Thereafter, the State of the Union was given in written form until Woodrow Wilson traveled to the Capitol in 1913.

Today’s State of the Phillies will be a Jeffersonian document, laying out the Phillies perspective from the point of view (basically) of current Phillies G.M. Pat Gillick. If Gillick was giving / writing the speech, this is what it might say:

The State of the Phillies is much the same as the State of the game of Baseball, in flux, unknown, undetermined. We stand here today, at the All-Star Break, a team in search of our first playoff berth since 1993. Our circumstances could be better, they could be worse.

In case everyone is wondering how the Phillies have fared at the break in recent history:

2004: 46-41 / 1st Place / 0.0 Games Back*
2005: 45-44 / 4th Place / 7.5 Games Back
2006: 40-47 / 2nd Place / 12.0 Games Back
2007: 44-44/ 3rd Place / 4.5 Games Back

* At the 2004 All-Star Break the Phillies sat in first, with three teams grouped behind them within two games of first place. After the Phillies were the Braves (1.0 GB), the Marlins (1.5 GB), and the Mets (2.0 GB).

So the Phillies current predicament is basically what they’ve done for the last three years.

I will start by addressing our pitching situation. You can never have too much pitching. This is a lesson I learned in my time building the Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners into contenders. A solid pitching staff will form a fortress around a team, enabling them to survive struggles on offense, shoddy defense or simple bad breaks. I tried, this season, to build a rotation that would ward off all assaults: Cole Hamels, a rookie last season, is off to a terrific start in 2007 (10-4, 3.72 ERA) and shall one day be mentioned in the same breath as Robin Roberts and Steve Carlton. Hamels is a fearsome strikeout artist (9.8 K/9, second in the N.L. to Jake Peavy) and is already, in just his second season, a dominant pitcher.

The rest of our staff has been, candidly, a mess. We have seen injuries fall Tom Gordon, Brett Myers, Jon Lieber, and Freddy Garcia. We have lost our closer and three of our starting pitchers. Only Myers has any realistic chance of returning to the rotation or the bullpen by the end of the season.

As a consequence, we’ve had to rush some of our promising arms into the rotation. J.D. Durbin, J.A. Happ, Kyle Kendrick. The fact that we went into a critical series with our nemesis, the New York Mets, with three rookie pitchers illustrates how dire our pitching situation really is.

The flux with our pitching staff means that we still haven’t improved over our recent showings. We still rank near the bottom of the National League in terms of some pitching statistics. We are dead-last in the N.L. in ERA. We have allowed 113 home runs this season, by far the worst in the N.L. Sadly we have also allowed 295 bases on balls, fifth-most in the N.L. While our pitchers have done well in getting strikeouts – 589, fifth-best in the N.L. – our inability to keep cheap runners off the bases and to allow the big bombs has been killing us.

Defensively, we have been a disappointment. Yes, our fielding percentage respectable - .984, seventh in the N.L. – but we know that success is measured in the plays that we make, not the mistakes that we avoid. We have not been making enough of those.

Revised Zone Rating on The Hardball Times says that the Phillies as a team are .820, which is .003 behind the N.L. average. The Phillies are at +2 in terms of Plus / Minus, which is exactly what the N.L. average is. The Phillies problem is that while they are pretty decent in terms of infield defense - .793, which is .012 better than the N.L. average – they are really struggling in the outfield. The Phillies have a .859 RZR in the outfield, which is fourteenth in the N.L. Only the Cardinals and Pirates have worse outfield defensive alignments. Clearly, either Pat Burrell is a major, unmitigated disaster in the outfield, or Aaron Rowand is continuing to struggle, or both. I looked up Burrell and Rowand’s numbers on THT and sure enough, both rank near the bottom.

Offensively, we have continued to be a juggernaut. Once more, we lead the N.L. in runs scored. We rank near the top of every major statistical category.

This season we have tried to move into the realm of small ball. Some may disagree, but this station-to-station baseball we have played in the recent past has led sloppy play and squandered opportunities. We are trying to manufacture runs more this season and have been helped by the terrific play of Shane Victorino and Michael Bourn on the basepaths.

The Phillies rank third in the N.L. in successful steals with 70 in 80 attempts. They are 37 attempts away from equaling what they did last year. Expect the Phillies to have somewhere in the neighborhood of 150-165 attempted steals this season. I have no idea how many bunts / sacrifice bunts the Phillies have tried, but I suspect it is a significant increase over last season.

Victorino ranks third in the N.L. in stolen bases with 27 in 29 tries, an exceptional 93% success rate. Bourn, who has barely played except as a pinch-runner, is 13-for-13. Jimmy Rollins is 15-for-18. Lots of speed on the roster right now. Expect to see Bourn dangled to teams as bait for a starting pitcher closer to the trading deadline.

That said, we are still scoring runs with the long ball. With a roster boasting Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell, Aaron Rowand, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins, how can we not?

The Phillies rank third in home runs with 102. We rank second in slugging percentage at .443 and third in terms of raw power at the plate (.175 ISO). The Phillies lead the league in walks drawn and are second in OBP. The power numbers are still really good for the Phillies. Consider that Burrell has been struggling and that Ryan Howard missed big chunks of the season, and you can see that the Phillies still have probably the most dangerous offense in the N.L.

And there we are. Last season we went 45-30, a winning percentage of .600, and nearly made the playoffs. If we do that again this season we will finish with 88 wins. That could be enough to win the N.L. East, and it ought to be enough to take the wildcard. Yes, we are just .500, but we are well-poised to finally make the playoffs. And remember that anything that happens in the playoffs is a crap-shoot. The Cardinals won just 83 games in 2006 and were champions of the world. Have faith, Philadelphia. Good day!

Whenever I talk about the Phillies or get comments it is always from people pessimistic about the direction the team is taking. There isn't enough optimism out there. Be optimistic, darn it!

Enjoy the All-Star Break. I'll be back tomorrow or Wednesday with some more thoughts.

Labels: Bullpen, Fielding, Pitching, Power-Hitting, Speed, State of the Phillies