Friday, June 06, 2008
2008 Draft Recap: Day One
The 2008 MLB Draft began yesterday afternoon with the Tampa Bay Rays taking shortstop Tim Beckham with the #1 Overall Pick, perhaps the last time the Rays will be in that position for a long time. The Phillies were busy with nine picks in the first six rounds. Here are a few thoughts:
In a draft that was deep on corner infielders and catcher prospects, as well as college players, the Phillies weren't afraid to be different. Their first four picks and six of their first seven, were high school players. The Phillies first three picks were high school players projected as outfielders. The Phillies chose:
Round:
1. Anthony Hewitt (SS/OF) - Salisbury, High School
1A. Zach Collier (OF) - Chino Hills High School
2. Anthony Grose (OF) - Bellflower High School
2. Jason Knapp (RHP) - North Hunterdon High School
3. Vance Worley (RHP) - Long Beach State College
3A. Jonathan Pettibone (RHP) - Esperanza High School
4. Trevor May (RHP) - Kelso High School
5. Jeremy Hamilton (1B) - Wright State
6. Colby Shreve (RHP) - Southern Nevada Community College
Obviously your attention is drawn to Hewitt and Collier, a pair of talented outfielders with a lot of raw tools who are anywhere from 4-6 years of development away from the major leagues. I wouldn't expect to see them crack the Phillies lineup until 2013 or so at the earliest. But both players are interesting picks in that they break with the Phillies recent focus on pitching and they also buck the trend in baseball towards drafting MLB-ready college kids who could crack lineups by 2010. The Phillies took two guys with a lot of raw talent who could anchor the Phillies outfield in the future. Hewitt looks like a future compliment to Ryan Howard and Chase Utley in the lineup as a #5 hitter, while Collier looks like a future #2 hitter who has been compared with the Angels Garrett Anderson.
It is interesting to me that the Phillies were able to snare the two guys they really wanted, Hewitt and Collier, after it looked like the team might have to choose between them. Keith Law of ESPN thought that Collier was going to slide to the Minnesota Twins at #27, but then Collier slid out of the first round and fell to them in the supplemental first round. The focus, especially from small market teams, on college-ish MLB-ready talent really might pay dividends as the Phillies secured a pair of first-round guys who probably would have gone much higher in the draft in previous years.
According to Baseball America, second-round pick Jason Knapp had an outstanding outwork with the team and the Phillies considered taking him in the Supplemental First Round at #34, but he fell to them in the second round at #71. What impresses me about Knapp is his size: six-foot-five, 215 lbs, which hopefully means that his fastball will come screaming down on hitters like Randy Johnson. Knapp and fellow-second rounder Anthony Grose are raw talents like Collier and Hewitt, which means that the Phillies are going to have a lot of work ahead of them in terms of talent development, but nearly all of these players are guys rated by the talent experts as having big upsides. Grose looks like a lead-off guy with a lot of speed and terrific defensive abilities. Some have compared him to the Dodgers Juan Pierre.
Starting with Knapp, the Phillies took four pitchers with their next five picks. The one who really interests me is May, a Washington State High Schooler who apparently has a fastball clocked in the high-90s and a devastating knuckle-curveball. Can the Phillies keep him from attending Washington State University?
-Generally I thought this was a very good draft for the Phillies. If their first four picks turn out well, the farm system could be dramatically restocked. This is a risky draft which could lay the foundations for great things in 2013-2014, or it could be a disaster and a wasted opportunity. We'll see.
Look for the Phillies to stock up on some mid-level pitchers today and a few project-type players. I think you'll see the Phillies take some catchers and middle infielders in the mid-level rounds today ....
-I thought ESPN's coverage of the Draft was pretty good but there was too much filler at the end and the failure to cover beyond the first round and supplemental first round left an incomplete picture to the viewer. In the future I'd like to see ESPN try and expand their coverage, perhaps starting the first round earlier in the day than two o'clock and following into the second and third rounds.
ESPN's panel was good - any panel featuring Peter Gammons is going to be good - but I would have liked to have seen more of Baseball America's Jim Callis or ESPN's Keith Law. Chris Singleton did a nice job as the token player giving the draftee's perspective on the system amidst the pundits, but he seemed like he had big stretches of time where he had nothing to say. One of the reasons why the NFL Draft does so well is because Mel Kiper, Jr., is there on Draft Day to deliver the definitive word on who this guy from Central Appalachian State is. I would like to see Law, a knowledgeable and articulate presence, on the panel as the expert on all things talent.
-Ed Wade and the Astros earned scorn for taking catcher Jason Castro with the #10 pick. I hope Wade knows what he's doing.
-The Pirates decision to take Pedro Alvarez is a real watershed moment for the Pirates. Either the team has helped itself by laying the foundation for future success - Alvarez has been compared to Manny Ramirez and is the powerful RBI-machine that the Pirates badly need in the middle of their lineup - or they have just doomed themselves to disaster. A year removed from a draft that earned them scorn for ducking on taking a Scott Boras client because of signability issues, they stepped up to the plate and took Alvarez, a major talent who also has Boras negotiating on his behalf. Also given that Pirates GM Neal Huntington is Boras former nemesis ... well, this is a big moment for the Pirates. They need to sign Alvarez and they have little leverage in these negotiations. They are a small-market team that needs to develop talent quickly. This will be interesting ...
Oh yeah, the Phillies played some baseball yesterday, wrapping up a four-game series with the Reds with their third win, a 5-0 shutout by Cole Hamels. The big moment in the game was Manager Charlie Manuel's decision to bench 2007 N.L. MVP Jimmy Rollins for failing to run out a pop fly that turned into a single after a silly little-league-type error by the Reds. It was a gutsy decision which could have blown up on everyone had Rollins reacted badly. Instead, the message was received by Rollins and he took it with a lot of dignity. Manuel's hold on the clubhouse was secure and Rollins displayed a lot of humility and maturity in accepting responsibility and putting team harmony first. This is the kind of moment that separates championship teams from also-rans.
The Phillies went 8-2 on their homestand and sit two and a half games in first heading into a road trip with the Atlanta Braves. More later on today ...
(1) comments
In a draft that was deep on corner infielders and catcher prospects, as well as college players, the Phillies weren't afraid to be different. Their first four picks and six of their first seven, were high school players. The Phillies first three picks were high school players projected as outfielders. The Phillies chose:
Round:
1. Anthony Hewitt (SS/OF) - Salisbury, High School
1A. Zach Collier (OF) - Chino Hills High School
2. Anthony Grose (OF) - Bellflower High School
2. Jason Knapp (RHP) - North Hunterdon High School
3. Vance Worley (RHP) - Long Beach State College
3A. Jonathan Pettibone (RHP) - Esperanza High School
4. Trevor May (RHP) - Kelso High School
5. Jeremy Hamilton (1B) - Wright State
6. Colby Shreve (RHP) - Southern Nevada Community College
Obviously your attention is drawn to Hewitt and Collier, a pair of talented outfielders with a lot of raw tools who are anywhere from 4-6 years of development away from the major leagues. I wouldn't expect to see them crack the Phillies lineup until 2013 or so at the earliest. But both players are interesting picks in that they break with the Phillies recent focus on pitching and they also buck the trend in baseball towards drafting MLB-ready college kids who could crack lineups by 2010. The Phillies took two guys with a lot of raw talent who could anchor the Phillies outfield in the future. Hewitt looks like a future compliment to Ryan Howard and Chase Utley in the lineup as a #5 hitter, while Collier looks like a future #2 hitter who has been compared with the Angels Garrett Anderson.
It is interesting to me that the Phillies were able to snare the two guys they really wanted, Hewitt and Collier, after it looked like the team might have to choose between them. Keith Law of ESPN thought that Collier was going to slide to the Minnesota Twins at #27, but then Collier slid out of the first round and fell to them in the supplemental first round. The focus, especially from small market teams, on college-ish MLB-ready talent really might pay dividends as the Phillies secured a pair of first-round guys who probably would have gone much higher in the draft in previous years.
According to Baseball America, second-round pick Jason Knapp had an outstanding outwork with the team and the Phillies considered taking him in the Supplemental First Round at #34, but he fell to them in the second round at #71. What impresses me about Knapp is his size: six-foot-five, 215 lbs, which hopefully means that his fastball will come screaming down on hitters like Randy Johnson. Knapp and fellow-second rounder Anthony Grose are raw talents like Collier and Hewitt, which means that the Phillies are going to have a lot of work ahead of them in terms of talent development, but nearly all of these players are guys rated by the talent experts as having big upsides. Grose looks like a lead-off guy with a lot of speed and terrific defensive abilities. Some have compared him to the Dodgers Juan Pierre.
Starting with Knapp, the Phillies took four pitchers with their next five picks. The one who really interests me is May, a Washington State High Schooler who apparently has a fastball clocked in the high-90s and a devastating knuckle-curveball. Can the Phillies keep him from attending Washington State University?
-Generally I thought this was a very good draft for the Phillies. If their first four picks turn out well, the farm system could be dramatically restocked. This is a risky draft which could lay the foundations for great things in 2013-2014, or it could be a disaster and a wasted opportunity. We'll see.
Look for the Phillies to stock up on some mid-level pitchers today and a few project-type players. I think you'll see the Phillies take some catchers and middle infielders in the mid-level rounds today ....
-I thought ESPN's coverage of the Draft was pretty good but there was too much filler at the end and the failure to cover beyond the first round and supplemental first round left an incomplete picture to the viewer. In the future I'd like to see ESPN try and expand their coverage, perhaps starting the first round earlier in the day than two o'clock and following into the second and third rounds.
ESPN's panel was good - any panel featuring Peter Gammons is going to be good - but I would have liked to have seen more of Baseball America's Jim Callis or ESPN's Keith Law. Chris Singleton did a nice job as the token player giving the draftee's perspective on the system amidst the pundits, but he seemed like he had big stretches of time where he had nothing to say. One of the reasons why the NFL Draft does so well is because Mel Kiper, Jr., is there on Draft Day to deliver the definitive word on who this guy from Central Appalachian State is. I would like to see Law, a knowledgeable and articulate presence, on the panel as the expert on all things talent.
-Ed Wade and the Astros earned scorn for taking catcher Jason Castro with the #10 pick. I hope Wade knows what he's doing.
-The Pirates decision to take Pedro Alvarez is a real watershed moment for the Pirates. Either the team has helped itself by laying the foundation for future success - Alvarez has been compared to Manny Ramirez and is the powerful RBI-machine that the Pirates badly need in the middle of their lineup - or they have just doomed themselves to disaster. A year removed from a draft that earned them scorn for ducking on taking a Scott Boras client because of signability issues, they stepped up to the plate and took Alvarez, a major talent who also has Boras negotiating on his behalf. Also given that Pirates GM Neal Huntington is Boras former nemesis ... well, this is a big moment for the Pirates. They need to sign Alvarez and they have little leverage in these negotiations. They are a small-market team that needs to develop talent quickly. This will be interesting ...
Oh yeah, the Phillies played some baseball yesterday, wrapping up a four-game series with the Reds with their third win, a 5-0 shutout by Cole Hamels. The big moment in the game was Manager Charlie Manuel's decision to bench 2007 N.L. MVP Jimmy Rollins for failing to run out a pop fly that turned into a single after a silly little-league-type error by the Reds. It was a gutsy decision which could have blown up on everyone had Rollins reacted badly. Instead, the message was received by Rollins and he took it with a lot of dignity. Manuel's hold on the clubhouse was secure and Rollins displayed a lot of humility and maturity in accepting responsibility and putting team harmony first. This is the kind of moment that separates championship teams from also-rans.
The Phillies went 8-2 on their homestand and sit two and a half games in first heading into a road trip with the Atlanta Braves. More later on today ...
Labels: Braves, Managing, MLB Draft, Rollins, State of the Phillies
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
The Mind of Charlie Manuel
A little while ago I had done a talkback with a Chicago Cubs blogger and he asked me to give his readers a sense of what kind of a manager Charlie Manuel is. My answer was that Manuel was a near-ideal manager for the Phillies: patient (he’s got a team full of veterans), laid-back (you need to be to survive the maelstrom that is the Philadelphia media circus), and a manager who plays to his team’s strengths (power-hitting, fielding). I thought I might take a moment to take a look at what we can derive from Manuel’s strategic maneuvers as the Phillies skipper.
Managing in baseball is a pretty tough thing to look at and evaluate. In football coaches shape their team’s actions as in no other sport and are recognized for doing such. The football coaches devise the complicated game-plans (e.g. Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson), install complicated and innovative schemes (e.g., San Francisco 49ers coach Bill Walsh and his West Coast Offense or Michigan Coach Rich Rodriguez and his spread-option offense), motivate players (Bill Parcells was a genius at this). To a lesser extent coaches in the NBA and NHL shape their teams too by devising strategies to emphasize and magnify strengths and downplay weaknesses. But unlike in football and basketball and hockey, where the action is fluid and much of the action and decision-making lays in the hands of the coaches, baseball is the game where the players make the key decisions and the format of the game is fairly static. Managing in baseball is less like being at the helm of the battleship as it steams into battle than sitting as the chairman of the board at a Fortune 500 Company.
But managers do shape their teams in far subtler ways that have real impact as the 162-game season unfolds.
I think we can look at a number of things and see how Charlie Manuel manages. Here are a few things that are important:
1. Charlie Manuel got his start in the American League. In Manuel’s first two seasons of managing a Cleveland Indians team in decline (the previous season, in 1999, it had blown a massive lead to the Boston Red Sox in the ALDS, flaming out from the playoffs yet again) were quite successful: the Indians went 90-72 and 91-71. In ’02 Manuel was cashiered after the Tribe got off to a 39-48 start, the beginning of the Indians rebuilding campaign. In the AL, with the designated hitter, they do thing differently. There is more of an emphasis on power-hitting and moving runners around the bases than on timely hitting and speed. Seeing how the Phillies routinely hit poorly in the clutch yet score bushels of runs thanks to their power-hitting, you can see how Manuel’s experiences shaped him when he was the Indians skipper.
2. 2007 was different. The 2007 campaign represented a number of doctrinal shifts in Manuel’s thinking. The evolution of Manuel towards speed and defense – a more National League-oriented game – occurred in ’07. Let’s measure speed two ways: stolen bases attempted and pinch-runners.
The number of stolen base attempts is pretty obvious in terms of the meaning it conveys. After ranking eighth in stolen base attempts in 2006, the Phillies jumped to second in 2007, after the Mets. Manuel did have terrific personnel to pull off the move (Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn) but Victorino and Rollins had been on the roster in ’06 and they hadn’t run much. Victorino had played extensively in ’06 and attempted a mere seven steals. In ’07 he attempted 41. Rollins was pretty consistent in ’06 and ’07, but he was the team’s sole base-stealing threat in ’06. In fact, he attempted 43% of the Phillies steals in ‘06, while attempting 30% in ’07.
Not persuaded? Okay, look at the increasing number of pinch-runners the Phillies used in 2007. As the Indians coach in ’00 and ’01, Manuel used 40 and 30 pinch-runners respectively. That number increased slightly in ’05 when Manuel took over the Phillies: 36. It jumped to 42 in 2006. In ’07 Manuel used 56 pinch-runners, most in the majors. The average N.L. team, as a matter of fact, utilized such 28 pinch-runners, half what the Phillies used. I don’t think this was solely a factor of personnel – the fact that Manuel had the speedy Michael Bourn sitting on the bench – but of a real interest in utilizing speed whenever possible to stretch the defense. When Bourn was on the DL Chris Roberson, the speedy and talented outfielder whom Bourn beat-out for the fourth outfielder slot oftentimes got into the game when the Phillies needed some speed.
Defense became much more important to Manuel. When Manuel took over the Phillies in ’05 he made 19 defensive substitutions. The next year he more than doubled that, making 49. Last year Charlie Manuel made a whopping 75 defensive substitutions, second-most in the N.L. after the Nationals Manny Acta. The average N.L. team made 48 … What that tells me was that Manuel consistently wanted to see better defensive players in the game and to do so he was willing to sacrifice some offense. Typically, the defensive switch Manuel would make would be to bring Michael Bourn into the game to play leftfield in place of Pat Burrell. If the game rolled on and Bourn came to hit, the Phillies would find themselves with a light-hitting outfielder in Burrell’s spot, costing the team plenty of offensive firepower.
However Manuel placed such a premium on defense that he usually assumed the risk and made the switch. Again, like with stealing bases and pinch-hitters, defensive substitutions are typically a National League thing. In 2007, the average A.L. team utilized 32 defensive substitutions. The average N.L. team utilized 48. Five N.L. teams utilized more defensive substitutions than the Texas Rangers, who led the A.L. with 53.
3. Manuel doesn’t tinker. Charlie Manuel utilized 87 different lineups in 2007, second-fewest in the N.L. after the Braves Bobby Cox with 86. The average N.L. manager utilized 115 lineups. I think there is a tendency amongst baseball managers to tinker with their lineups to show people how smart they are and how hard they are working. For example: the manager who decides to sit Person A from the lineup because he hits .001 lower against lefties than Person B. That is someone who is needlessly tinkering and fidgeting with their lineup because that what they think wins baseball games. Players want to know where they are hitting in the lineup and they want to stay there.
Manuel was exceedingly consistent in terms of his lineup usage. His 87 lineups in ’07 is right in line with the 81 he used in ’06 and the 80 he used in ’05.
4. Manuel is a good tactician. This is sort of a tough thing to judge because it is tempting a lot of times to engage in Monday Morning Quarterbacking and pass judgment on whether or not bringing Person A in was a better move than bringing Person B into the lineup or on the mound. It is difficult to tell, difficult to get an actual idea about which decision was the best. I am going to focus on Manuel’s decision-making where it comes to utilizing the intentional walk. The IBB is usually a maneuver teams employ to minimize damage by setting up force-outs or to avoid dangerous hitters. Oftentimes it comes back to bite teams in the butt. The Bill James Handbook started looking at whether or not their utilization of the IBB was good (no runs scored in the inning or the next guy grounds into a double play), not good (one run scored in the inning) or the bomb (two or more runs scored). Manuel utilized the IBB 62 times in 2007. 41 times the outcome was good. That’s a 66% success rate. The average N.L. manager utilized the IBB 50 times, 31 of them good. That’s a 62% success rate.
Okay, my belief in Manuel’s tactical-decision making is partly subject to conjecture, but he really does a nice job in the dugout, in my opinion. He sets a stable lineup and plays to his team’s strengths. He’s willing to change and makes good tactical decisions. And he’s a winner. Aside from his short season in ’02, he’s had teams that contended for the playoffs each and every season. Can’t argue with that.
(1) comments
Managing in baseball is a pretty tough thing to look at and evaluate. In football coaches shape their team’s actions as in no other sport and are recognized for doing such. The football coaches devise the complicated game-plans (e.g. Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson), install complicated and innovative schemes (e.g., San Francisco 49ers coach Bill Walsh and his West Coast Offense or Michigan Coach Rich Rodriguez and his spread-option offense), motivate players (Bill Parcells was a genius at this). To a lesser extent coaches in the NBA and NHL shape their teams too by devising strategies to emphasize and magnify strengths and downplay weaknesses. But unlike in football and basketball and hockey, where the action is fluid and much of the action and decision-making lays in the hands of the coaches, baseball is the game where the players make the key decisions and the format of the game is fairly static. Managing in baseball is less like being at the helm of the battleship as it steams into battle than sitting as the chairman of the board at a Fortune 500 Company.
But managers do shape their teams in far subtler ways that have real impact as the 162-game season unfolds.
I think we can look at a number of things and see how Charlie Manuel manages. Here are a few things that are important:
1. Charlie Manuel got his start in the American League. In Manuel’s first two seasons of managing a Cleveland Indians team in decline (the previous season, in 1999, it had blown a massive lead to the Boston Red Sox in the ALDS, flaming out from the playoffs yet again) were quite successful: the Indians went 90-72 and 91-71. In ’02 Manuel was cashiered after the Tribe got off to a 39-48 start, the beginning of the Indians rebuilding campaign. In the AL, with the designated hitter, they do thing differently. There is more of an emphasis on power-hitting and moving runners around the bases than on timely hitting and speed. Seeing how the Phillies routinely hit poorly in the clutch yet score bushels of runs thanks to their power-hitting, you can see how Manuel’s experiences shaped him when he was the Indians skipper.
2. 2007 was different. The 2007 campaign represented a number of doctrinal shifts in Manuel’s thinking. The evolution of Manuel towards speed and defense – a more National League-oriented game – occurred in ’07. Let’s measure speed two ways: stolen bases attempted and pinch-runners.
The number of stolen base attempts is pretty obvious in terms of the meaning it conveys. After ranking eighth in stolen base attempts in 2006, the Phillies jumped to second in 2007, after the Mets. Manuel did have terrific personnel to pull off the move (Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn) but Victorino and Rollins had been on the roster in ’06 and they hadn’t run much. Victorino had played extensively in ’06 and attempted a mere seven steals. In ’07 he attempted 41. Rollins was pretty consistent in ’06 and ’07, but he was the team’s sole base-stealing threat in ’06. In fact, he attempted 43% of the Phillies steals in ‘06, while attempting 30% in ’07.
Not persuaded? Okay, look at the increasing number of pinch-runners the Phillies used in 2007. As the Indians coach in ’00 and ’01, Manuel used 40 and 30 pinch-runners respectively. That number increased slightly in ’05 when Manuel took over the Phillies: 36. It jumped to 42 in 2006. In ’07 Manuel used 56 pinch-runners, most in the majors. The average N.L. team, as a matter of fact, utilized such 28 pinch-runners, half what the Phillies used. I don’t think this was solely a factor of personnel – the fact that Manuel had the speedy Michael Bourn sitting on the bench – but of a real interest in utilizing speed whenever possible to stretch the defense. When Bourn was on the DL Chris Roberson, the speedy and talented outfielder whom Bourn beat-out for the fourth outfielder slot oftentimes got into the game when the Phillies needed some speed.
Defense became much more important to Manuel. When Manuel took over the Phillies in ’05 he made 19 defensive substitutions. The next year he more than doubled that, making 49. Last year Charlie Manuel made a whopping 75 defensive substitutions, second-most in the N.L. after the Nationals Manny Acta. The average N.L. team made 48 … What that tells me was that Manuel consistently wanted to see better defensive players in the game and to do so he was willing to sacrifice some offense. Typically, the defensive switch Manuel would make would be to bring Michael Bourn into the game to play leftfield in place of Pat Burrell. If the game rolled on and Bourn came to hit, the Phillies would find themselves with a light-hitting outfielder in Burrell’s spot, costing the team plenty of offensive firepower.
However Manuel placed such a premium on defense that he usually assumed the risk and made the switch. Again, like with stealing bases and pinch-hitters, defensive substitutions are typically a National League thing. In 2007, the average A.L. team utilized 32 defensive substitutions. The average N.L. team utilized 48. Five N.L. teams utilized more defensive substitutions than the Texas Rangers, who led the A.L. with 53.
3. Manuel doesn’t tinker. Charlie Manuel utilized 87 different lineups in 2007, second-fewest in the N.L. after the Braves Bobby Cox with 86. The average N.L. manager utilized 115 lineups. I think there is a tendency amongst baseball managers to tinker with their lineups to show people how smart they are and how hard they are working. For example: the manager who decides to sit Person A from the lineup because he hits .001 lower against lefties than Person B. That is someone who is needlessly tinkering and fidgeting with their lineup because that what they think wins baseball games. Players want to know where they are hitting in the lineup and they want to stay there.
Manuel was exceedingly consistent in terms of his lineup usage. His 87 lineups in ’07 is right in line with the 81 he used in ’06 and the 80 he used in ’05.
4. Manuel is a good tactician. This is sort of a tough thing to judge because it is tempting a lot of times to engage in Monday Morning Quarterbacking and pass judgment on whether or not bringing Person A in was a better move than bringing Person B into the lineup or on the mound. It is difficult to tell, difficult to get an actual idea about which decision was the best. I am going to focus on Manuel’s decision-making where it comes to utilizing the intentional walk. The IBB is usually a maneuver teams employ to minimize damage by setting up force-outs or to avoid dangerous hitters. Oftentimes it comes back to bite teams in the butt. The Bill James Handbook started looking at whether or not their utilization of the IBB was good (no runs scored in the inning or the next guy grounds into a double play), not good (one run scored in the inning) or the bomb (two or more runs scored). Manuel utilized the IBB 62 times in 2007. 41 times the outcome was good. That’s a 66% success rate. The average N.L. manager utilized the IBB 50 times, 31 of them good. That’s a 62% success rate.
Okay, my belief in Manuel’s tactical-decision making is partly subject to conjecture, but he really does a nice job in the dugout, in my opinion. He sets a stable lineup and plays to his team’s strengths. He’s willing to change and makes good tactical decisions. And he’s a winner. Aside from his short season in ’02, he’s had teams that contended for the playoffs each and every season. Can’t argue with that.
Labels: Managing
Friday, April 11, 2008
Welcome Home: Cubs vs. Phillies Preview
The Phillies return home from their seven games in Cincinnati and Queens to start a nine game homestand at Citizens Bank tonight. First up, Phillies vs. Cubs.
Exactly 100 years ago the Chicago Cubs won their last World Series, defeating the Detroit Tigers four games to one in the 1908 World Series. The victory was part of an impressive era for the Cubs, who won 530 of 766 games (.692) between 1906 and 1910. Between those seasons the Cubs dominated the National League, winning four pennants and two World Series in five seasons. The 1906 team won 116 games - a mark tied by the '01 Seattle Mariners - and lost just 36. Their .762 winning percentage is something that will never be equaled in baseball again. With Joe Tinker manning shortstop, Johnny Evers at second base and Frank Chance at first (Tinker to Evers to Chance), the dead-ball era Cubs were a powerhouse.
In the years subsequent the Cubs failed to find any kind of sustained success, losing World Series in 1929, 1932, 1935 and 1938. The '29 team blew an 8-0 lead in Game Four of the World Series, allowing the then-Philadelphia Athletics to score ten runs in the bottom of the eighth inning to win 10-8 and take a dominating 3-1 advantage in the series.
In 1945 the Cubs lost the World Series in seven games to the Tigers, their seventh consecutive defeat in the World Series. Since then, the Cubs haven't been back. Between 1946 and 1983 the Cubs didn't even make the playoffs, consistently finishing with losing records despite featuring terrific players like Ernie Banks or Ron Santo. The '69 season actually inspired hope amongst Cubs fans as the Cubs actually sat in first place for nearly the entire season before dropping 11 of 12 games between Sept. 3 and Sept. 15 and see their 5 game lead over the Mets suddenly turn into a 4.5 game deficit.
In 1984 the Cubs punished their fans for believing in them by blowing a 2-0 lead in the best-of-five NLCS to the San Diego Padres. After brief post-season appearances in 1989 and 1998, the Cubs once more punished their fans with a spectacular collapse in the NLCS as the Cubs gave up eight runs in the eighth inning of Game Six to the Marlins (shades of 1929) and watched as a three games-to-one advantage turned into a defeat.
The '07 Cubs were swiftly swept by the Diamondbacks in the NLDS, ending the Cubs 99th year of disappointment. In the years since the Cubs last World Series victory ... the Titanic sank (1912), World War I started (1914), and ended (1919), the Stock Market fell apart (1929), World War II started (1939), Pearl Harbor was attacked (1941), World War II ended (1945), the Brooklyn Dodgers won the World Series (1955), America put a man on the Moon (1969), Richard Nixon resigned the Presidency (1974), and the movie Titanic made millions for James Cameron (1997-1998). Yes, it has been an eventful century.
That was then, this is now ... The 2008 Chicago Cubs are eager to erase the stain of the past. The Red Sox managed to undo 86 years of history in 2004, so the Cubs are definitely due.
Phillies Hitting vs. Cubs Pitching. The Phillies enter this series with a lot of hot bats in the lineup. Pat Burrell is off to a hot start with a whopping .513 On-Base Percentage and three home runs and nine RBI in ten games. Burrell has also hit three doubles. Right behind him, making his argument to be considered in the MVP race is Chase Utley who has a .447 OBP and also has three home runs to go with four doubles and eight RBI.
Exactly 100 years ago the Chicago Cubs won their last World Series, defeating the Detroit Tigers four games to one in the 1908 World Series. The victory was part of an impressive era for the Cubs, who won 530 of 766 games (.692) between 1906 and 1910. Between those seasons the Cubs dominated the National League, winning four pennants and two World Series in five seasons. The 1906 team won 116 games - a mark tied by the '01 Seattle Mariners - and lost just 36. Their .762 winning percentage is something that will never be equaled in baseball again. With Joe Tinker manning shortstop, Johnny Evers at second base and Frank Chance at first (Tinker to Evers to Chance), the dead-ball era Cubs were a powerhouse.
In the years subsequent the Cubs failed to find any kind of sustained success, losing World Series in 1929, 1932, 1935 and 1938. The '29 team blew an 8-0 lead in Game Four of the World Series, allowing the then-Philadelphia Athletics to score ten runs in the bottom of the eighth inning to win 10-8 and take a dominating 3-1 advantage in the series.
In 1945 the Cubs lost the World Series in seven games to the Tigers, their seventh consecutive defeat in the World Series. Since then, the Cubs haven't been back. Between 1946 and 1983 the Cubs didn't even make the playoffs, consistently finishing with losing records despite featuring terrific players like Ernie Banks or Ron Santo. The '69 season actually inspired hope amongst Cubs fans as the Cubs actually sat in first place for nearly the entire season before dropping 11 of 12 games between Sept. 3 and Sept. 15 and see their 5 game lead over the Mets suddenly turn into a 4.5 game deficit.
In 1984 the Cubs punished their fans for believing in them by blowing a 2-0 lead in the best-of-five NLCS to the San Diego Padres. After brief post-season appearances in 1989 and 1998, the Cubs once more punished their fans with a spectacular collapse in the NLCS as the Cubs gave up eight runs in the eighth inning of Game Six to the Marlins (shades of 1929) and watched as a three games-to-one advantage turned into a defeat.
The '07 Cubs were swiftly swept by the Diamondbacks in the NLDS, ending the Cubs 99th year of disappointment. In the years since the Cubs last World Series victory ... the Titanic sank (1912), World War I started (1914), and ended (1919), the Stock Market fell apart (1929), World War II started (1939), Pearl Harbor was attacked (1941), World War II ended (1945), the Brooklyn Dodgers won the World Series (1955), America put a man on the Moon (1969), Richard Nixon resigned the Presidency (1974), and the movie Titanic made millions for James Cameron (1997-1998). Yes, it has been an eventful century.
That was then, this is now ... The 2008 Chicago Cubs are eager to erase the stain of the past. The Red Sox managed to undo 86 years of history in 2004, so the Cubs are definitely due.
Phillies Hitting vs. Cubs Pitching. The Phillies enter this series with a lot of hot bats in the lineup. Pat Burrell is off to a hot start with a whopping .513 On-Base Percentage and three home runs and nine RBI in ten games. Burrell has also hit three doubles. Right behind him, making his argument to be considered in the MVP race is Chase Utley who has a .447 OBP and also has three home runs to go with four doubles and eight RBI.
The Phillies problems are at the top of the lineup. If Jimmy Rollins continues to sit out of the lineup, as he did for the final two games of the Mets series, then the Phillies have serious problems. Shane Victorino is off to a slow start with a .233 OBP and just two runs scored. He's also stolen just a single base and was caught once. Eric Bruntlett, J.Roll's replacement, is making a terrific argument for the Phillies to promote Jason Donald from Double-A Reading to play short. Thus far, in addition to making two costly errors on Wednesday night, Bruntlett has an OBP of .231. In order for Burrell, Utley, Pedro Feliz and Ryan Howard to have RBI opportunities, then Victorino and Bruntlett are going to have to produce, or the Phillies will have a dangerously unbalanced lineup.
Meanwhile the Cubs send Jason Marquis (6.75 ERA) to the mound tonight, followed by Carlos Zambrano (1.32 ERA) and Ted Lilly (9.72 ERA). Zambrano is off to a terrific start, with 12 strikeouts to 1 walk in thirteen and two-thirds of an inning. Zambrano has thirteen Pitching Runs Created, exactly eleven more than Lilly and Marquis combined. It will be interesting if the Phillies can get to Zambrano on Saturday.
Here is an X-factor for this series: last season with Jason Kendall behind the plate teams stole bases on the Cubs again and again and again. This season the Cubs have turned to Geovany Soto and Henry Blanco to man the backstop. The question is whether or not Soto and Blanco can stop potential base-stealers. The Phillies have terrific ones in Victorino (37 of 41 steals last season) and (if he's healthy) Rollins (41 of 47 steals). If Rollins and Victorino get on base and successfully test the Cubs catchers arms, then the Phillies will win.
Cubs Hitting vs. Phillies Pitching. The Phillies send Brett Myers, Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer to the mound this weekend. Myers, the team's Opening Day starter, has struggled in his first two starts of the season, going just five innings in both starts and allowing seven earned runs for an ERA of 6.30. After being returned to the rotation after functioning as the team's closer in 2007, Myers is eager to prove himself. Traditionally Myers has pitched the Cubs well: the last three seasons he was 3-2, with a 2.52 ERA and two complete games in his four starts against them. He'll have the edge on Marquis tonight.
Cole Hamels is off to a terrific start in 2008, splitting his first two decisions with an ERA of 1.20. Hamels was actually better in his defeat than he was in his victory, going eight innings and allowing a single run. The matchup Saturday with Zambrano will be spectacular, a real pitchers duel between two hurlers at the top of their respective games.
Sunday the Phillies send Jamie Moyer, who used to pitch with the Cubs back in 1571 (just kidding: 1986 - 1988) to the mound to fight Ted Lilly. I give the edge to Moyer, the soft-tossing lefty who will frustrate Cubs hitters all day long.
The Cubs have some real weapons in their lineup: Kosuke Fukudome is off to a terrific start, with a .526 OBP. Fukudome helps the Cubs correct a major issue their team last season had: nobody setting the table for Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez. After Fukudome the Cubs have no major OBP threats right now. Centerfielder Felix Pie has an OBP of .238 and Shortstop Ryan Theroit has an OBP of .281. These crummy performances are ruining the Cubs powerful bats. Tellingly, Derrek Lee has just four RBI despite having three home runs. If the Cubs want to wipe the last 100 years off the scope, they'll have to do better than that.
Cubs Hitting vs. Phillies Pitching. The Phillies send Brett Myers, Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer to the mound this weekend. Myers, the team's Opening Day starter, has struggled in his first two starts of the season, going just five innings in both starts and allowing seven earned runs for an ERA of 6.30. After being returned to the rotation after functioning as the team's closer in 2007, Myers is eager to prove himself. Traditionally Myers has pitched the Cubs well: the last three seasons he was 3-2, with a 2.52 ERA and two complete games in his four starts against them. He'll have the edge on Marquis tonight.
Cole Hamels is off to a terrific start in 2008, splitting his first two decisions with an ERA of 1.20. Hamels was actually better in his defeat than he was in his victory, going eight innings and allowing a single run. The matchup Saturday with Zambrano will be spectacular, a real pitchers duel between two hurlers at the top of their respective games.
Sunday the Phillies send Jamie Moyer, who used to pitch with the Cubs back in 1571 (just kidding: 1986 - 1988) to the mound to fight Ted Lilly. I give the edge to Moyer, the soft-tossing lefty who will frustrate Cubs hitters all day long.
The Cubs have some real weapons in their lineup: Kosuke Fukudome is off to a terrific start, with a .526 OBP. Fukudome helps the Cubs correct a major issue their team last season had: nobody setting the table for Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez. After Fukudome the Cubs have no major OBP threats right now. Centerfielder Felix Pie has an OBP of .238 and Shortstop Ryan Theroit has an OBP of .281. These crummy performances are ruining the Cubs powerful bats. Tellingly, Derrek Lee has just four RBI despite having three home runs. If the Cubs want to wipe the last 100 years off the scope, they'll have to do better than that.
Tonight: Myers vs. Marquis.
Labels: Base-Stealing, Burrell, Hamels, Managing, Moyer, Myers, Pitching, Power-Hitting, Rollins, Utley, Victorino
Monday, November 12, 2007
The Envelope Please...
It’s awards time once again and I thought I might chime in with my predictions and arguments for who deserves each of the major awards, from Manager of the Year to MVP. Without further ado … The envelope please …
AL Manager of the Year
Who will win … Terry Francona, Boston Red Sox.
Who should win … Joe Torre, New York Yankees.
Perhaps baseball will give the award to Torre to spit in the eye of George Steinbrenner and the mighty Evil Empite in the Bronx. No, baseball will give the award to Francona because the Red Sox were the strongest team in baseball in 2007, seizing control of the A.L. East and never relinquishing it on their way to their second World Series title in four years. The deserving candidate is Torre, who won it in 1996 and 1998, but who turned in his greatest performance as a manager this season, taking a Yankees team that was 21-29 on May 29th, and then going 73-39 the rest of the way. Torre took a team loaded with egos and no pitching and succeeded in making them into contenders. He was the A.L.’s best manager.
NL Manager of the Year
Who will win … Charlie Manuel, Phillies
Who should win … Manuel
Maybe the Rockies Clint Hurdle stands a chance here, but Manuel took a team that struggled early in the season (remember that 3-10 start?) and had a pitching staff that was eviscerated and created a winner. His calm presence and skilled tactics led the Phillies to victory. Did anyone in baseball, aside from maybe Joe Torre, do a better job? I think not. Manuel should be a lock.
AL Rookie of the Year
Who will win … Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox.
Who should win … Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox.
Dice-K was pretty decent in 2007. Pedroia led all rookies in OPS (.823, 108 OPS+) and really came out of nowhere to help power the Red Sox to the World Series. Dice-K got all of the glory and will win the award, but I think teammate Pedroia was the best of an uninspired lot.
NL Rookie of the Year
Who will win … Troy Tulowitski, Colorado Rockies.
Who should win … Tulowitski.
Let’s see … Tulowitski plays shortstop, a demanding defensive position, very well, and he hit 24 Home Runs, 99 RBIs, .838 OPS (110 OPS+). He led all N.L. shortstops in Range Factor (5.39) and in Fielding Win Shares (10.9). Hard to have a better rookie season than that! Tulowitski was clearly the best rookie in the National League.
AL Cy Young
Who will win… Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox.
Who should win… Beckett.
Beckett, the sole 20-game winner in the majors in 2007 (20-7), will win the award, and he clearly deserves it. While the Twins Johan Santana pitched well, he lost a step in 2007/ Beckett’s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA was 3.22 to Santana’s 3.94. Beckett also had a better K/BB ratio: 4.85 to 4.51, and allowed fewer walks (1.9 BB/9 to 2.3) and fewer Home Runs (0.80 to 1.45 HR/9) than Santana. I actually think the Indians C.C. Sabathia is the runner-up, rather than Santana. Still, this was Beckett’s season. Bottom-line: Beckett was the best pitcher in the AL in 2007.
NL Cy Young
Who will win … Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres.
Who should win … Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks.
I give the edge to Webb over Peavy because Peavy accumulated his stats playing in the park that favors pitchers above all others in the Major League. Peavy gets more strikeouts (10.4 K/9 to 7.7), gives up roughly the same number of walks (2.9 BB/9), and gives up slightly more home runs (0.56 HR/9 for Peavy to Webb’s 4.8). Peavy’s FIP is 2.80 to Webb’s 3.19, but Peavy plays in a pitchers park with a terrific defense backing him up. Webb plays in a hitters dream with a mediocre team behind him. Much like how Sandy Koufax carried the Dodgers in the 1960’s, Brandon Webb carries the D-Backs. They’d be sunk without him. Maybe this is an argument based on sentiment more than hard stats, but I like Webb for his second consecutive Cy Young award.
AL MVP
Who will win… Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees.
Who should win … A-Rod.
Basically, this is the only award that the Red Sox won’t take. How good was A-Rod? 54 Home Runs, 156 RBI, 160 Runs Created, 31 Doubles, 24 steals in 28 tries … A-Rod was clearly the best player in the American League in 2007. Nobody played better baseball. Had it not been for A-Rod’s torrid April, the Yankees would never have made the playoffs at all. As it stands, he was the best bat in the league and played a tough defensive position well. If the ballot isn’t unanimous for A-Rod, I’d be shocked.
NL MVP
Who will win … Matt Holliday, Rockies.
Who should win … Jimmy Rollins, Phillies.
Hitting 36 Home Runs, 137 RBI, .405 OBP, and 125 Runs Created ought to win you the MVP award. But who was more important to their team than Jimmy Rollins? Holliday was a cog in the Rockies machine, but Rollins was the fire-starter for the Phillies. This was no ordinary season for J.Roll: 38 Doubles, 20 Triples, 30 Home Runs, 94 RBI, 41 stolen bases in 47 attempts, 122 Runs Created. Sure, there are things not to like about Jimmy Rollins. His .345 OBP is too low for a lead-off hitter. And he did lead the N.L. in Outs with 527. But he has a unique blend of speed, power and defense and his terrific play was vital in sparking the Phillies to the NL East crown. He was the best individual player in the league and was the most important to his team. He was the 2007 NL MVP. Give it to him!
Alright, sometime this week look for Part II of my Minor League review, then look for Part I of my Phillies Season in Review: Fielding next Monday.
(2) comments
AL Manager of the Year
Who will win … Terry Francona, Boston Red Sox.
Who should win … Joe Torre, New York Yankees.
Perhaps baseball will give the award to Torre to spit in the eye of George Steinbrenner and the mighty Evil Empite in the Bronx. No, baseball will give the award to Francona because the Red Sox were the strongest team in baseball in 2007, seizing control of the A.L. East and never relinquishing it on their way to their second World Series title in four years. The deserving candidate is Torre, who won it in 1996 and 1998, but who turned in his greatest performance as a manager this season, taking a Yankees team that was 21-29 on May 29th, and then going 73-39 the rest of the way. Torre took a team loaded with egos and no pitching and succeeded in making them into contenders. He was the A.L.’s best manager.
NL Manager of the Year
Who will win … Charlie Manuel, Phillies
Who should win … Manuel
Maybe the Rockies Clint Hurdle stands a chance here, but Manuel took a team that struggled early in the season (remember that 3-10 start?) and had a pitching staff that was eviscerated and created a winner. His calm presence and skilled tactics led the Phillies to victory. Did anyone in baseball, aside from maybe Joe Torre, do a better job? I think not. Manuel should be a lock.
AL Rookie of the Year
Who will win … Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox.
Who should win … Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox.
Dice-K was pretty decent in 2007. Pedroia led all rookies in OPS (.823, 108 OPS+) and really came out of nowhere to help power the Red Sox to the World Series. Dice-K got all of the glory and will win the award, but I think teammate Pedroia was the best of an uninspired lot.
NL Rookie of the Year
Who will win … Troy Tulowitski, Colorado Rockies.
Who should win … Tulowitski.
Let’s see … Tulowitski plays shortstop, a demanding defensive position, very well, and he hit 24 Home Runs, 99 RBIs, .838 OPS (110 OPS+). He led all N.L. shortstops in Range Factor (5.39) and in Fielding Win Shares (10.9). Hard to have a better rookie season than that! Tulowitski was clearly the best rookie in the National League.
AL Cy Young
Who will win… Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox.
Who should win… Beckett.
Beckett, the sole 20-game winner in the majors in 2007 (20-7), will win the award, and he clearly deserves it. While the Twins Johan Santana pitched well, he lost a step in 2007/ Beckett’s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA was 3.22 to Santana’s 3.94. Beckett also had a better K/BB ratio: 4.85 to 4.51, and allowed fewer walks (1.9 BB/9 to 2.3) and fewer Home Runs (0.80 to 1.45 HR/9) than Santana. I actually think the Indians C.C. Sabathia is the runner-up, rather than Santana. Still, this was Beckett’s season. Bottom-line: Beckett was the best pitcher in the AL in 2007.
NL Cy Young
Who will win … Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres.
Who should win … Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks.
I give the edge to Webb over Peavy because Peavy accumulated his stats playing in the park that favors pitchers above all others in the Major League. Peavy gets more strikeouts (10.4 K/9 to 7.7), gives up roughly the same number of walks (2.9 BB/9), and gives up slightly more home runs (0.56 HR/9 for Peavy to Webb’s 4.8). Peavy’s FIP is 2.80 to Webb’s 3.19, but Peavy plays in a pitchers park with a terrific defense backing him up. Webb plays in a hitters dream with a mediocre team behind him. Much like how Sandy Koufax carried the Dodgers in the 1960’s, Brandon Webb carries the D-Backs. They’d be sunk without him. Maybe this is an argument based on sentiment more than hard stats, but I like Webb for his second consecutive Cy Young award.
AL MVP
Who will win… Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees.
Who should win … A-Rod.
Basically, this is the only award that the Red Sox won’t take. How good was A-Rod? 54 Home Runs, 156 RBI, 160 Runs Created, 31 Doubles, 24 steals in 28 tries … A-Rod was clearly the best player in the American League in 2007. Nobody played better baseball. Had it not been for A-Rod’s torrid April, the Yankees would never have made the playoffs at all. As it stands, he was the best bat in the league and played a tough defensive position well. If the ballot isn’t unanimous for A-Rod, I’d be shocked.
NL MVP
Who will win … Matt Holliday, Rockies.
Who should win … Jimmy Rollins, Phillies.
Hitting 36 Home Runs, 137 RBI, .405 OBP, and 125 Runs Created ought to win you the MVP award. But who was more important to their team than Jimmy Rollins? Holliday was a cog in the Rockies machine, but Rollins was the fire-starter for the Phillies. This was no ordinary season for J.Roll: 38 Doubles, 20 Triples, 30 Home Runs, 94 RBI, 41 stolen bases in 47 attempts, 122 Runs Created. Sure, there are things not to like about Jimmy Rollins. His .345 OBP is too low for a lead-off hitter. And he did lead the N.L. in Outs with 527. But he has a unique blend of speed, power and defense and his terrific play was vital in sparking the Phillies to the NL East crown. He was the best individual player in the league and was the most important to his team. He was the 2007 NL MVP. Give it to him!
Alright, sometime this week look for Part II of my Minor League review, then look for Part I of my Phillies Season in Review: Fielding next Monday.
Labels: Managing, Odds 'n Ends, Rollins
Tuesday, October 09, 2007
Why Charlie Manuel Should Come Back…
Just a few weeks ago Charlie Manuel’s job was as good as gone. This season was Manuel’s third managing the Phillies since taking over from Phillies legend Larry Bowa after Bowa’s team flamed out in 2004 and never contended despite playing in a brand-new ballpark with a revamped roster. The Phillies had come close in 2005 and 2006, but were ultimately undone when their slow starts at the beginning of the season came back to bite them later in the season. The 2007 likewise got off to a slow start and the Phillies were little more than an after thought in the playoff picture. Manuel’s frustration with managing the under-achieving Phillies boiled over early in the season when he nearly got into a fist-fight with a writer. On his bench was Davey Lopes, the aggressive assistant coach who once managed to Brewers and seemed like a logical fit to succeed Manuel as manager. September, it seemed just a few weeks ago, belonged to the Mets, Padres and the Atlanta Braves. And Charlie Manuel’s days were numbered.
Oh, what a difference a month makes. The 2007 Phillies pulled off the impossible upset and secured the first playoff berth and division title for the team since 1993. Despite the Phillies playoff flame-out, Charlie does deserve, and hopefully will get, an extension to coach the Phillies again in 2008.
It is hard not to like Charlie Manuel. The Norfolk, West Virginia native played briefly in the late 1960’s and early 1970’s for the Twins and Dodgers before moving into Japanese league baseball, then on to the realm of managing. At age 56 he got his first chance, managing the 2000 Cleveland Indians to a 90-72 record, while narrowly missing the playoffs. The next season Manuel led the Indians to a 91-71 record and an A.L. Central division title. In the post-season his Indians lost to the 116-win Seattle Mariners three games to two. Ironically, Jamie Moyer helped pitch the Mariners to victories in game two and five of that series.
The next season Manuel was fired on July 11th, after the Indians got off to a 39-48 start and were hopelessly out of the playoff race. Manuel found his way to Philadelphia to help advise General Manager Ed Wade as an assistant. When Wade and the Phillies fired Larry Bowa in 2004, Manuel was given the reins.
While Manuel wasn’t won 90 games like he did with the Indians, his record does speak for itself:
2005: 88-74 2nd place
2006: 85-77 2nd place
2007: 89-73 1st place
Total: 262-224 (.539)
I’ve always been a big fan of Manuel’s because the experience of managing in the American League has shaped a lot of Manuel’s thinking. In contrast to the fiery, small-ball oriented Larry Bowa, Manuel was been a calm, stabilizing influence on the team and has really tailored the Phillies strategy on the field to their strengths: the power offense. The 2005-2007 Phillies ran modestly, bunted rarely and relied on power in their cozy ballpark to make the difference.
But Manuels’ finest performance has been this season. How chaotic has it been? Well, the Phillies began the season with six starting pitchers: Jon Lieber, Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Freddy Garcia, Adam Eaton and Brett Myers. The Phillies were expected to deal Lieber for help in the bullpen and rely on new acquisitions Eaton and Garcia to give the Phillies the edge over the Mets and Braves for the division. Instead, Freddy Garcia injured his arm on his way to throwing just 58 innings and posting a 1-5 record with a 5.90 ERA. Eaton was a major bust, going 10-10 with 6.29 ERA. Lieber ended up pitching well, but injured his foot and was lost for the season after getting off to a very, very impressive start. Sure, his 3-6 record with a 4.73 doesn’t seem impressive, but you have to see that Lieber allowed few walks and home runs and was generally done in by shoddy defense. Myers got shelled and was moved to the bullpen, which was shattered after Tom Gordon got injured.
Suddenly the Phillies deep pitching staff was thin and the team stumbled to a 4-11 start that saw the phillies with the worst record in the majors and left them six and a half games out of first place, just fifteen games in. The Phillies rallied, and since that point posted the best record in the National League. Along the way they started rookie pitchers Kyle Kendrick and J.D. Durbin thirty times, saw second baseman and MVP candidate Chase Utley miss a month with a broken hand, saw former MVP Ryan Howard struggle and dealt with numerous other bad breaks. Overall, the Phillies 89 wins were second to just the Arizona Diamondbacks 90.
Any man who could pull off the job of keeping the Phillies stable with all of their injuries and get them to the playoffs deserves another year as Manager.
Tomorrow, I'll review both LCS series, as promised.
(3) comments
Oh, what a difference a month makes. The 2007 Phillies pulled off the impossible upset and secured the first playoff berth and division title for the team since 1993. Despite the Phillies playoff flame-out, Charlie does deserve, and hopefully will get, an extension to coach the Phillies again in 2008.
It is hard not to like Charlie Manuel. The Norfolk, West Virginia native played briefly in the late 1960’s and early 1970’s for the Twins and Dodgers before moving into Japanese league baseball, then on to the realm of managing. At age 56 he got his first chance, managing the 2000 Cleveland Indians to a 90-72 record, while narrowly missing the playoffs. The next season Manuel led the Indians to a 91-71 record and an A.L. Central division title. In the post-season his Indians lost to the 116-win Seattle Mariners three games to two. Ironically, Jamie Moyer helped pitch the Mariners to victories in game two and five of that series.
The next season Manuel was fired on July 11th, after the Indians got off to a 39-48 start and were hopelessly out of the playoff race. Manuel found his way to Philadelphia to help advise General Manager Ed Wade as an assistant. When Wade and the Phillies fired Larry Bowa in 2004, Manuel was given the reins.
While Manuel wasn’t won 90 games like he did with the Indians, his record does speak for itself:
2005: 88-74 2nd place
2006: 85-77 2nd place
2007: 89-73 1st place
Total: 262-224 (.539)
I’ve always been a big fan of Manuel’s because the experience of managing in the American League has shaped a lot of Manuel’s thinking. In contrast to the fiery, small-ball oriented Larry Bowa, Manuel was been a calm, stabilizing influence on the team and has really tailored the Phillies strategy on the field to their strengths: the power offense. The 2005-2007 Phillies ran modestly, bunted rarely and relied on power in their cozy ballpark to make the difference.
But Manuels’ finest performance has been this season. How chaotic has it been? Well, the Phillies began the season with six starting pitchers: Jon Lieber, Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Freddy Garcia, Adam Eaton and Brett Myers. The Phillies were expected to deal Lieber for help in the bullpen and rely on new acquisitions Eaton and Garcia to give the Phillies the edge over the Mets and Braves for the division. Instead, Freddy Garcia injured his arm on his way to throwing just 58 innings and posting a 1-5 record with a 5.90 ERA. Eaton was a major bust, going 10-10 with 6.29 ERA. Lieber ended up pitching well, but injured his foot and was lost for the season after getting off to a very, very impressive start. Sure, his 3-6 record with a 4.73 doesn’t seem impressive, but you have to see that Lieber allowed few walks and home runs and was generally done in by shoddy defense. Myers got shelled and was moved to the bullpen, which was shattered after Tom Gordon got injured.
Suddenly the Phillies deep pitching staff was thin and the team stumbled to a 4-11 start that saw the phillies with the worst record in the majors and left them six and a half games out of first place, just fifteen games in. The Phillies rallied, and since that point posted the best record in the National League. Along the way they started rookie pitchers Kyle Kendrick and J.D. Durbin thirty times, saw second baseman and MVP candidate Chase Utley miss a month with a broken hand, saw former MVP Ryan Howard struggle and dealt with numerous other bad breaks. Overall, the Phillies 89 wins were second to just the Arizona Diamondbacks 90.
Any man who could pull off the job of keeping the Phillies stable with all of their injuries and get them to the playoffs deserves another year as Manager.
Tomorrow, I'll review both LCS series, as promised.
Labels: Managing
Monday, October 08, 2007
Phillies - Rockies Series Review
What a horrible week for Phillies baseball. After Sunday ended with the Phillies triumph over the Mets for the N.L. East crown, nothing went right for the Phillies.
First, the San Diego Padres blew a lead to the Colorado Rockies and sent to the Rockies to the playoffs as the N.L. wildcard. The Rockies had concluded their season with victories in 14 of 15 games. They were the only team in baseball playing with more confidence and more momentum than the Phillies.
Then the Phillies dropped both of the opening games at home, before going onto Colorado and dropping the final game of the series 2-1 Saturday Night (late, I might add, I stayed up until 12:30 AM to watch it) in the Mile-High City. The quick exit tarnished the Phillies September run and has left a sour taste in the mouths of Phillies phandom.
Let’s go back and give a few reasons why the Phillies lost in the first place. Good pitching always defeats good hitting and vice versa, said Yogi Berra. Good pitching was the difference here. The Rockies managed to hold the Phillies to eight runs and a .274 OBP, about eighty points under the Phillies season average. The Phillies .366 slugging percentage was ninety-two points lower. The Phillies OPS in the series was just .640, compared to their .812 in the regular season.
More stats of note: in their 27 innings of work, the Rockies struck-out 26 Phillies and issued 12 walks.
As I poured through the numbers it became apparent that the Phillies never got going against the Rockies hitters. They hit poorly in the clutch: 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position (.091 BA/RISP), but part of that was that the Phillies rarely had runners in scoring position. Aside from their five home runs, there were just two Phillies hits for extra-bases: a triple of Jimmy Rollins and a double by Carlos Ruiz. The Phillies also only stole three bases.
Every Phillies hitter struggled. Aside from hitting solo home runs in Game One, Aaron Rowand and Pat Burrell were virtually automatic outs. Rowand was 1-for-12 and Burrell was 2-for-11. Throw out those home runs they hit, and the two went 1-for-21 with no runs, no RBI and seven strike-outs.
Chase Utley was 2-for-11 with five strikeouts. Ryan Howard was 3-for-12 with seven strikeouts. The supporting cast wasn’t a help either: Wes Helms was 0-for-2, Jayson Werth was 0-for-3, and Greg Dobbs was 0-for-3. Jimmy Rollins went 2-for-11, but he also had a triple, a home run, hit four RBI, had a stolen base and drew two walks. Out of all of the Phillies, he played the best.
The Phillies pitchers deserve some of the blame for the debacle, but you have to acknowledge that Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer pitched well. Moyer, in particular, was a surprise since he hadn’t beaten the Rockies in his career, his start in Denver this season had gone so poorly, and his soft-tossing style seemed to promise hits sailing into the outfield. Yet Jamie Moyer tried to keep the Phillies in the series with a brilliant performance in Game Three, allowing just one run on five hits and two walks in six innings of work.
Cole Hamels pitched well in Game One, allowing just three runs in six and two-thirds of an inning of work, tagging seven strikeouts and allowing just three hits and four walks. He seemed in control of the game and had he gotten some run support from his brethren, he might have won Game One for the Phillies.
The rest of the Phillies pitching staff is another story entirely. Kyle Kendrick pitched poorly in Game Two and Kyle Lohse allowed the pivotal home run in Game Two that effectively sank the Phillies chances in the series. J.C. Romero failed the Phillies in the eighth inning Saturday Night. Jose Mesa’s ERA in the series was 81.00. ‘Nuff said.
Simply put, the Phillies couldn’t hold a candle to the Rockies pitching staff, which is vastly under-rated and under-appreciated. As I watched the Rockies on Saturday Night, I thought: poor Diamondbacks. They don’t have a chance. The Rockies pitching staff is very good and was the real difference-maker. If they pitch this well against the D-backs more punch-less offense, I don’t see how the Rockies could lose.
What of Charlie Manuel? He certainly made mistakes in the series. His decision in Game Three to take out Tom Gordon and put J.C. Romero in can be second-guessed. His decision in Game Two to intentionally walk Yorvit Torrealba was baffling and came back to bite the Phillies when Seth Smith hit an infield single to load the bases, then Manuel brought in Lohse to surrender the pivotal grand slam to Kaz Matsui. The walk to Torrealba looms large as a blunder, but allowing Romero to pitch while saving Brett Myers for the ninth-inning and extra-innings seemed like a reasonable strategy in Game Three, and bringing in Lohse to pitch to Matsui seemed like a good move given that Kendrick had thrown a number of pitches by that juncture. I don’t think you can pin this loss in the series on Charlie Manuel. That would be unfair.
The odd thing I noticed in the pages of the Philadelphia Inquirer was how upbeat the coverage of the Phillies was. Despite the tragic sweep, the people who cover this team seem to be optimistic about its future. E.g., check out Jim Salisbury's take. It’s players seem to be optimistic. The fans need to be too. This is only the beginning of the Phillies run, not the end.
In summing up, let me just comment on the stunning fact that three of the four divisional series were sweeps: the Rockies over the Phillies, the Diamondbacks over the Cubs, the Red Sox over the Angels. I’d like to add that I got every one of those series wrong. The Cubs are a much stronger team on paper than the Diamondbacks and I was certain they’d take the series, especially with the momentum they’ve been playing with. Lou Pinella’s decision to pull Carlos Zambrano in Game One of their series looks to be the thread that unwound the Cubs tapestry. Burdened by decades of history and expectations, they folded quietly. Wait ‘til next year.
Over in the American League, I was stunned by how the Red Sox pitching utterly dominated the Angels. I really thought that the Angels would have an edge here, but they did not. Josh Beckett’s nine-inning, four-hit, eight-strikeout masterpiece in Game One set the tone. Meanwhile, the Yankees kept alive, but I think the Indians will win the series regardless. That one will go to five games.
Alright, so here is the posting schedule for the week coming up:
Tuesday: Rockies – Diamondbacks Analysis
Wednesday: Bring Back Charlie Manuel?
Thursday: Speed & the Phillies in 2007
Friday: The Blueprint for 2008
(2) comments
First, the San Diego Padres blew a lead to the Colorado Rockies and sent to the Rockies to the playoffs as the N.L. wildcard. The Rockies had concluded their season with victories in 14 of 15 games. They were the only team in baseball playing with more confidence and more momentum than the Phillies.
Then the Phillies dropped both of the opening games at home, before going onto Colorado and dropping the final game of the series 2-1 Saturday Night (late, I might add, I stayed up until 12:30 AM to watch it) in the Mile-High City. The quick exit tarnished the Phillies September run and has left a sour taste in the mouths of Phillies phandom.
Let’s go back and give a few reasons why the Phillies lost in the first place. Good pitching always defeats good hitting and vice versa, said Yogi Berra. Good pitching was the difference here. The Rockies managed to hold the Phillies to eight runs and a .274 OBP, about eighty points under the Phillies season average. The Phillies .366 slugging percentage was ninety-two points lower. The Phillies OPS in the series was just .640, compared to their .812 in the regular season.
More stats of note: in their 27 innings of work, the Rockies struck-out 26 Phillies and issued 12 walks.
As I poured through the numbers it became apparent that the Phillies never got going against the Rockies hitters. They hit poorly in the clutch: 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position (.091 BA/RISP), but part of that was that the Phillies rarely had runners in scoring position. Aside from their five home runs, there were just two Phillies hits for extra-bases: a triple of Jimmy Rollins and a double by Carlos Ruiz. The Phillies also only stole three bases.
Every Phillies hitter struggled. Aside from hitting solo home runs in Game One, Aaron Rowand and Pat Burrell were virtually automatic outs. Rowand was 1-for-12 and Burrell was 2-for-11. Throw out those home runs they hit, and the two went 1-for-21 with no runs, no RBI and seven strike-outs.
Chase Utley was 2-for-11 with five strikeouts. Ryan Howard was 3-for-12 with seven strikeouts. The supporting cast wasn’t a help either: Wes Helms was 0-for-2, Jayson Werth was 0-for-3, and Greg Dobbs was 0-for-3. Jimmy Rollins went 2-for-11, but he also had a triple, a home run, hit four RBI, had a stolen base and drew two walks. Out of all of the Phillies, he played the best.
The Phillies pitchers deserve some of the blame for the debacle, but you have to acknowledge that Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer pitched well. Moyer, in particular, was a surprise since he hadn’t beaten the Rockies in his career, his start in Denver this season had gone so poorly, and his soft-tossing style seemed to promise hits sailing into the outfield. Yet Jamie Moyer tried to keep the Phillies in the series with a brilliant performance in Game Three, allowing just one run on five hits and two walks in six innings of work.
Cole Hamels pitched well in Game One, allowing just three runs in six and two-thirds of an inning of work, tagging seven strikeouts and allowing just three hits and four walks. He seemed in control of the game and had he gotten some run support from his brethren, he might have won Game One for the Phillies.
The rest of the Phillies pitching staff is another story entirely. Kyle Kendrick pitched poorly in Game Two and Kyle Lohse allowed the pivotal home run in Game Two that effectively sank the Phillies chances in the series. J.C. Romero failed the Phillies in the eighth inning Saturday Night. Jose Mesa’s ERA in the series was 81.00. ‘Nuff said.
Simply put, the Phillies couldn’t hold a candle to the Rockies pitching staff, which is vastly under-rated and under-appreciated. As I watched the Rockies on Saturday Night, I thought: poor Diamondbacks. They don’t have a chance. The Rockies pitching staff is very good and was the real difference-maker. If they pitch this well against the D-backs more punch-less offense, I don’t see how the Rockies could lose.
What of Charlie Manuel? He certainly made mistakes in the series. His decision in Game Three to take out Tom Gordon and put J.C. Romero in can be second-guessed. His decision in Game Two to intentionally walk Yorvit Torrealba was baffling and came back to bite the Phillies when Seth Smith hit an infield single to load the bases, then Manuel brought in Lohse to surrender the pivotal grand slam to Kaz Matsui. The walk to Torrealba looms large as a blunder, but allowing Romero to pitch while saving Brett Myers for the ninth-inning and extra-innings seemed like a reasonable strategy in Game Three, and bringing in Lohse to pitch to Matsui seemed like a good move given that Kendrick had thrown a number of pitches by that juncture. I don’t think you can pin this loss in the series on Charlie Manuel. That would be unfair.
The odd thing I noticed in the pages of the Philadelphia Inquirer was how upbeat the coverage of the Phillies was. Despite the tragic sweep, the people who cover this team seem to be optimistic about its future. E.g., check out Jim Salisbury's take. It’s players seem to be optimistic. The fans need to be too. This is only the beginning of the Phillies run, not the end.
In summing up, let me just comment on the stunning fact that three of the four divisional series were sweeps: the Rockies over the Phillies, the Diamondbacks over the Cubs, the Red Sox over the Angels. I’d like to add that I got every one of those series wrong. The Cubs are a much stronger team on paper than the Diamondbacks and I was certain they’d take the series, especially with the momentum they’ve been playing with. Lou Pinella’s decision to pull Carlos Zambrano in Game One of their series looks to be the thread that unwound the Cubs tapestry. Burdened by decades of history and expectations, they folded quietly. Wait ‘til next year.
Over in the American League, I was stunned by how the Red Sox pitching utterly dominated the Angels. I really thought that the Angels would have an edge here, but they did not. Josh Beckett’s nine-inning, four-hit, eight-strikeout masterpiece in Game One set the tone. Meanwhile, the Yankees kept alive, but I think the Indians will win the series regardless. That one will go to five games.
Alright, so here is the posting schedule for the week coming up:
Tuesday: Rockies – Diamondbacks Analysis
Wednesday: Bring Back Charlie Manuel?
Thursday: Speed & the Phillies in 2007
Friday: The Blueprint for 2008
Labels: Dobbs, Gordon, Hamels, Helms, Howard, Kenderick, Lohse, Managing, Mesa, Playoffs, Power-Hitting, Rollins, Romero, Rowand, Utley, Werth
Monday, October 01, 2007
The Afternoon After...
Now it is the day after the Phillies phantasic comeback and everyone is waking up and coming to grips with what happened. There were some nice pieces in the Philadelphia Inquirer:
I like David Aldridge's piece about Charlie Manuel. I've always been a big fan of his and believed that the Phillies were better off with the reins in Manuel's hands than anyone else's. Manuel's calm, steady approach and Moneyball-esque strategy on the field are important reasons why the Phillies have had win totals in the upper-80s and were playoff contenders these last three seasons. I believe completely that Pat Gillick intended to fire him at the end of the season and replace him with Davey Lopes for 2008 until the Phillies surged. Now Charlie will get another season, or more.
Phil Sheridan looks at the losers up I-95 in Shea Stadium. I had forgotten that Billy Wagner was a Met and beating his team makes this all the sweeter until I read Sheridan's article. Sounds like the Mets are going to be a mess this off-season.
Todd Zolecki talks a little bit about Jimmy Rollins, who certainly has the momentum to be the 2007 NL MVP. I'm rather skeptical J.Roll was the NL MVP based on the numbers - he did lead the NL in outs with 527, he finished well behind Matt Holliday in Runs Created, 149 to 135, and he wasn't the best defensive shortstop in the league - but J.Roll was the critical cog in the Phillies machine down the stretch, a key bat and the team's emotional leader. J.Roll was been amazing at the plate: thirty home runs, twenty triples, thirty-eight doubles, forty-one steals in forty-seven tries, 139 runs scored, 94 RBI, there is probably nobody in baseball with his unique blend of speed and power at the plate. This season was J.Roll's best in the bigs and I'd have no problem with giving him the nod over Holliday based on emotion alone. Oh, and while J.Roll isn't the best NL shortstop, he plays a much tougher position than Holliday. That has to count for something.
I bet that J.Roll will come out ahead of Holliday and will take the NL MVP, although I wonder if Chase Utley and Ryan Howard might split the Phillies vote. J.Roll has some big advantages here: he plays in a major, East Coast market close to New York and he was a hero in a close, well-televised playoff race. Momentum is there, as opposed to Holliday and the Rockies, who largely flew under the radar of the national media in their race for the playoffs.
By the way, give the Rockies credit for quite a run for the playoffs: they've won 13 of 14 games. Aside from a 4-2 loss to the Diamondbacks on Sept. 28, the Rockies haven't lost in nearly two weeks. Part of me wants to see the Rockies win because they look like a weaker team on paper than the pitching-heavy Padres, but then I think you also have to worry about how strong the Rockies are finishing.
Here is what the Mets fans are saying. First The Eddie Kranepool Society talks about the Mets collapse. The anger is obvious, though restrained. The Musings and Prophecies of Metstradamus was pretty petulant and juvenile about the Mets loss. A lot of pathetic, sour-loser whining about the Phillies. Don't whine or make snide comments about the team that beat your team, big guy. It just makes the Phillies triumph all the sweeter.
ESPN's Page 2 has a nice litany of reasons why the Mets blew their lead.
Baseball Prospectus' Nate Silver has a nice article at SI.com about the biggest chokes in baseball history. He ranks the '64 Phillies at #13, and puts the Mets collapse at #5. Silver notes that the Mets had a 99.8% probability of winning the N.L. East on Sept. 12, when they held their 7-game lead. The '51 Dodgers - Giants pennant race ranks #1, which I can see. The '95 Mariners - Angels race, has been pretty underrated by writers and historians, ranks #4. Maybe because the Angels won the '02 World Series and erased some of the stain. According to BP, the odds against the Angels losing in '95 were 8,332-to-1, far bigger than the Mets 500-to-1 choke in '07 or the Dodgers 382-to-1 choke in '51. By the way, the Phillies were 25-to-1 to blow it in 1964, which is pretty minor comparatively.
Tomorrow: NLDS preview.
(0) comments
I like David Aldridge's piece about Charlie Manuel. I've always been a big fan of his and believed that the Phillies were better off with the reins in Manuel's hands than anyone else's. Manuel's calm, steady approach and Moneyball-esque strategy on the field are important reasons why the Phillies have had win totals in the upper-80s and were playoff contenders these last three seasons. I believe completely that Pat Gillick intended to fire him at the end of the season and replace him with Davey Lopes for 2008 until the Phillies surged. Now Charlie will get another season, or more.
Phil Sheridan looks at the losers up I-95 in Shea Stadium. I had forgotten that Billy Wagner was a Met and beating his team makes this all the sweeter until I read Sheridan's article. Sounds like the Mets are going to be a mess this off-season.
Todd Zolecki talks a little bit about Jimmy Rollins, who certainly has the momentum to be the 2007 NL MVP. I'm rather skeptical J.Roll was the NL MVP based on the numbers - he did lead the NL in outs with 527, he finished well behind Matt Holliday in Runs Created, 149 to 135, and he wasn't the best defensive shortstop in the league - but J.Roll was the critical cog in the Phillies machine down the stretch, a key bat and the team's emotional leader. J.Roll was been amazing at the plate: thirty home runs, twenty triples, thirty-eight doubles, forty-one steals in forty-seven tries, 139 runs scored, 94 RBI, there is probably nobody in baseball with his unique blend of speed and power at the plate. This season was J.Roll's best in the bigs and I'd have no problem with giving him the nod over Holliday based on emotion alone. Oh, and while J.Roll isn't the best NL shortstop, he plays a much tougher position than Holliday. That has to count for something.
I bet that J.Roll will come out ahead of Holliday and will take the NL MVP, although I wonder if Chase Utley and Ryan Howard might split the Phillies vote. J.Roll has some big advantages here: he plays in a major, East Coast market close to New York and he was a hero in a close, well-televised playoff race. Momentum is there, as opposed to Holliday and the Rockies, who largely flew under the radar of the national media in their race for the playoffs.
By the way, give the Rockies credit for quite a run for the playoffs: they've won 13 of 14 games. Aside from a 4-2 loss to the Diamondbacks on Sept. 28, the Rockies haven't lost in nearly two weeks. Part of me wants to see the Rockies win because they look like a weaker team on paper than the pitching-heavy Padres, but then I think you also have to worry about how strong the Rockies are finishing.
Here is what the Mets fans are saying. First The Eddie Kranepool Society talks about the Mets collapse. The anger is obvious, though restrained. The Musings and Prophecies of Metstradamus was pretty petulant and juvenile about the Mets loss. A lot of pathetic, sour-loser whining about the Phillies. Don't whine or make snide comments about the team that beat your team, big guy. It just makes the Phillies triumph all the sweeter.
ESPN's Page 2 has a nice litany of reasons why the Mets blew their lead.
Baseball Prospectus' Nate Silver has a nice article at SI.com about the biggest chokes in baseball history. He ranks the '64 Phillies at #13, and puts the Mets collapse at #5. Silver notes that the Mets had a 99.8% probability of winning the N.L. East on Sept. 12, when they held their 7-game lead. The '51 Dodgers - Giants pennant race ranks #1, which I can see. The '95 Mariners - Angels race, has been pretty underrated by writers and historians, ranks #4. Maybe because the Angels won the '02 World Series and erased some of the stain. According to BP, the odds against the Angels losing in '95 were 8,332-to-1, far bigger than the Mets 500-to-1 choke in '07 or the Dodgers 382-to-1 choke in '51. By the way, the Phillies were 25-to-1 to blow it in 1964, which is pretty minor comparatively.
Tomorrow: NLDS preview.
Labels: Managing, Mets, Rollins
It’s Christmas In October …
1964 … 1980 … 10,000 … 7 … I work with a lot of numbers on my blog. I’m not a flowery or witty writer, or at least I don’t have the time to be. I work quickly and I work with information and I utilize numbers to tell you the unknown story that is behind the headlines. E.g., the Phillies are winning because … they are leading the N.L. in stolen base percentage … they are leading the N.L. in triples hit in the last three innings of a game … You get the idea.
I look at a lot of numbers on A Citizen’s Blog and I wonder if they mean anything to people. They mean something to me. I was the kid in High School Algebra doodling baseball statistics when my teacher was explaining what in the heck (X-2) (X – 1X – 4) meant. The numbers tell the whole story of a game. You can look back and extrapolate from box scores about hits and runs and what happened in a game. You can look at stats and extrapolate how a team works (or doesn’t) and how it wins (or doesn’t). Who is contributing and who isn’t.
I work with a lot of numbers and they just don’t seem to be adequate to sum up or even really explain the Phillies stunning late September surge from 7 games back just two and a half weeks ago to where they are now: first place in the N.L. East and a berth in the playoffs. The Phillies 125-years of futility, their 10,000 losses, none of it really matters right now, because the Phillies won the division and sit in the playoff jumble, one of four teams with a chance to go to the playoffs and one of eight who will win it. This team had heart, it believed and it played better than anyone thought it could. The passion of the Phillies fans as they waved towels and wildly cheered the team as it made its run to the playoffs, the passion of the individual Phillies themselves, it simply cannot be replicated and cannot be explained by numbers. This is really stunning stuff, and I am happy that I was here to talk about it.
In the end, the Phillies won their 89th game of the year, which gave them one more than the Mets or anyone else in the N.L. East. Their 89-73 record means that this is the Phillies seventh consecutive season with 80 or more wins. This is also the first time under manager Charlie Manuel that the team has made the playoffs after several near-misses. The ’05 team was eliminated on the final day of the season and the ’06 team was eliminated on the second-to-last day of the season.
The Phillies were as much fighting history as they were fighting the Mets. This season they became the first professional sports franchise to lose 10,000 games, an event that the media made far too big a deal over. The team has just one championship, in 1980. They’ve come close and blown it many times: in 1950 they nearly blew a massive lead in the N.L. pennant race to the Dodgers, then got swept in the World Series. 1964? Well, until the ’07 Mets came along, the ’64 Phillies had the biggest choke job in MLB history, blowing a 6-game lead with just twelve to go. The great Phillies teams of the 1970’s lost three consecutive NLCS. The magical ’93 team lost the World Series on a walk-off home run. History was a real obstacle here, more than people realize. This is new ground that the Phillies are exploring: success.
Poor Charlie Manuel, much maligned for not being fiery enough, has his playoff berth. Perhaps now people will stop complaining about him and arguing to replace him with a much more aggressive manager. This is a veteran team that knows what needs to be done, Manuel was the right man to manage it, without screaming and yelling and acting like a crazy man. If the ’07 Phillies had been led by Larry Bowa, I shudder to think how this season would have ended.
Now let us turn our attention to the rest of the MLB playoffs. Here in the N.L., the Phillies are joined by the Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs, as well as the winner of tonight’s Rockies – Padres playoff game. The Padres have a big edge in terms of pitching, but the Rockies are the better team on offense, they are playing with momentum and they are at home. I don’t see Jake Peavy as the silver bullet that the Padres are hoping and praying that he will be. I say that tonight’s game will be a 5-2 Rockies victory.
Alright, tomorrow I will preview the Phillies – Rockies / Padres series and give an overview on the 2007 playoffs. Stay right here for all of your Phillies baseball needs!
(2) comments
I look at a lot of numbers on A Citizen’s Blog and I wonder if they mean anything to people. They mean something to me. I was the kid in High School Algebra doodling baseball statistics when my teacher was explaining what in the heck (X-2) (X – 1X – 4) meant. The numbers tell the whole story of a game. You can look back and extrapolate from box scores about hits and runs and what happened in a game. You can look at stats and extrapolate how a team works (or doesn’t) and how it wins (or doesn’t). Who is contributing and who isn’t.
I work with a lot of numbers and they just don’t seem to be adequate to sum up or even really explain the Phillies stunning late September surge from 7 games back just two and a half weeks ago to where they are now: first place in the N.L. East and a berth in the playoffs. The Phillies 125-years of futility, their 10,000 losses, none of it really matters right now, because the Phillies won the division and sit in the playoff jumble, one of four teams with a chance to go to the playoffs and one of eight who will win it. This team had heart, it believed and it played better than anyone thought it could. The passion of the Phillies fans as they waved towels and wildly cheered the team as it made its run to the playoffs, the passion of the individual Phillies themselves, it simply cannot be replicated and cannot be explained by numbers. This is really stunning stuff, and I am happy that I was here to talk about it.
In the end, the Phillies won their 89th game of the year, which gave them one more than the Mets or anyone else in the N.L. East. Their 89-73 record means that this is the Phillies seventh consecutive season with 80 or more wins. This is also the first time under manager Charlie Manuel that the team has made the playoffs after several near-misses. The ’05 team was eliminated on the final day of the season and the ’06 team was eliminated on the second-to-last day of the season.
The Phillies were as much fighting history as they were fighting the Mets. This season they became the first professional sports franchise to lose 10,000 games, an event that the media made far too big a deal over. The team has just one championship, in 1980. They’ve come close and blown it many times: in 1950 they nearly blew a massive lead in the N.L. pennant race to the Dodgers, then got swept in the World Series. 1964? Well, until the ’07 Mets came along, the ’64 Phillies had the biggest choke job in MLB history, blowing a 6-game lead with just twelve to go. The great Phillies teams of the 1970’s lost three consecutive NLCS. The magical ’93 team lost the World Series on a walk-off home run. History was a real obstacle here, more than people realize. This is new ground that the Phillies are exploring: success.
Poor Charlie Manuel, much maligned for not being fiery enough, has his playoff berth. Perhaps now people will stop complaining about him and arguing to replace him with a much more aggressive manager. This is a veteran team that knows what needs to be done, Manuel was the right man to manage it, without screaming and yelling and acting like a crazy man. If the ’07 Phillies had been led by Larry Bowa, I shudder to think how this season would have ended.
Now let us turn our attention to the rest of the MLB playoffs. Here in the N.L., the Phillies are joined by the Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs, as well as the winner of tonight’s Rockies – Padres playoff game. The Padres have a big edge in terms of pitching, but the Rockies are the better team on offense, they are playing with momentum and they are at home. I don’t see Jake Peavy as the silver bullet that the Padres are hoping and praying that he will be. I say that tonight’s game will be a 5-2 Rockies victory.
Alright, tomorrow I will preview the Phillies – Rockies / Padres series and give an overview on the 2007 playoffs. Stay right here for all of your Phillies baseball needs!
Labels: 1950, Managing, Mets, Playoffs
Monday, August 13, 2007
Goodbye Charlie Manuel?
General Manager Pat Gillick, in an interview recently on sports talk radio, recently declined to give Manager Charlie Manuel a vote of confidence and state that Manuel will be the manager of the red pinstripes in 2008. I’m not surprised at all to see Gillick uninterested in Manuel returning, and I actually am surprised to see that Manuel is still the Phillies skipper. Gillick, remember, took over the team in 2006 and still kept Manuel on, even though Manuel had been hired and had worked as an advisor for the Phillies old regime. After the Phillies surprising run at the playoffs in ’06, I am sure that Gillick felt he had no choice but keep Manuel on for ’07, but short of the Phillies making the playoffs and doing some damage (making the World Series?) I think that Gillick will hand Manuel his pink slip at the end of the season.
So as the days close on the Manuel era I thought I might take stock a little bit. There are three questions worth asking:
Is Manuel an effective manager? I submit so. Compare Manuel’s record to that of Larry Bowa, Manuel’s predecessor:
Larry Bowa: 337-308 (.522)
Charlie Manuel: 233-204 (.533)
The difference between the two is miniscule. Bowa’s teams went 86-76 in 2001, 2002 and 2004, his worst record being a 80-81 finish in 2003. The Phillies finished second in ’01 and ’04 and third in ’02 and ’03. Manuel’s teams finished second in 2005 (88-74) and 2006 (85-77) and currently seem destined to finish second again in 2007 (with an 86-76 record). Sure, the Phillies haven’t made the playoffs under Bowa or Manuel, but they’ve won under both managers.
Credit Manuel, however, for keeping the Phillies competitive despite struggles in terms of major injuries to key members on the roster (Jim Thome in 2005, Aaron Rowand in 2006, Chase Utley, et al., in 2007) and despite slow starts. The Phillies were .490 under Bowa in April and .424 under Manuel. Imagine if the Phillies didn’t get off to such sluggish starts these last few years: the team plays .555 baseball after April under Manuel and .528 under Bowa.
If your curious, the Phillies would have averaged 90 wins in a season if they played at their post-April pace under Manuel.
Tactically, I think Manuel makes good decisions. He's not someone who over-manages and coaches himself right out of a game. According to the 2007 Bill James Handbook, he used the fewest lineups in the N.L., he was reluctant to yank starters from games, he didn't sacrifice bunt or base-steal or try many hit-and-runs, instead relying on his team's strength, its capacity to hit the ball and hit the ball hard to score runs. A good manager days to his team's strengths.
Who will replace him? There are two candidates that spring to mind and they both sit on the Phillies bench next to Manuel. The first is Jimy Williams, the former coach of the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Astros. The 64-year old Williams has worked with Gillick before as coach of the Blue Jays from 1986 to 1989, so there is a relationship between the two. Gillick would probably feel comfortable with Williams holding the reins, however …
I think the real candidate to replace Manuel stands behind the first base bag: Davey Lopes.
This season you’ve seen real aggressiveness on the Phillies part to press aggressively on the base-paths and steal bases. Credit the Phillies newfound aggressiveness to Lopes, whose energy and enthusiasm and passion for the running game makes him Manuel’s heir apparent. True, he’s not much younger than Williams (62), and doesn’t have as much experience as a manager as Williams (340 games with the Brewers vs. 1,701), but Lopes has energy and passion, and he is selling the gospel of the running game. The Phillies under Manuel seem like an N.L. Moneyball team, reliant on the walk and the three-run home run to generate offense. With the tide turning against Moneyball and home runs in the minds of managers and pundits, Gillick and the Phillies management must be impressed with how aggressively Lopes has pushed the running game. Despite playing in a park tailor-made for bash ball, the ’07 Phillies rank second in the N.L. in stolen bases with 92. This is a much more aggressive running team, a factor I credit evenly to Lopes influence and to updates in the Phillies personnel (specifically, Shane Victorino and Michael Bourn).
Can someone do a better job? Manuel’s stumbles in April are interesting to analyze here. People fault Manuel for being too laid-back in handling his players and submit that the Phillies struggles at the outset of the season are a product of Manuel’s lack of intensity. Is that true? Bowa’s teams struggled in April too and went on to play better ball later in the season and nobody would mistake Larry Bowa for Charlie Manuel. The ’04 Phillies got off to nearly the same start – 10-11 – as Manuel did the next three seasons as skipper: 10-14 in ’05, 10-14 in ’06 and 11-14 this season. I don’t think intensity is an issue here, and I don’t think intensity is a plus either. Gene Mauch mercilessly rode his teams, and the ’64 Phillies boast one of the most epic collapses in sports history. The ’86 California Angels blew a 3-1 lead in the ALCS and dropped three in a row to the Boston Red Sox. Intense managers ride their teams into the group. Manuel was temperamentally well-suited to managing a veteran ball club like the Phillies.
What about the weather? Well, the Phillies are built around the big bang theory of baseball. April, with the rainy weather in the Northeast, is hardly the best time of year for the Phillies brand of baseball. In July and August, with the blisteringly hot weather, is great for big bang baseball. Any coincidence that the Phillies do well at this time of the season?
I hope everyone enjoyed the weekend. Tomorrow, a look at the Phillies playoff prospects.
(0) comments
So as the days close on the Manuel era I thought I might take stock a little bit. There are three questions worth asking:
Is Manuel an effective manager? I submit so. Compare Manuel’s record to that of Larry Bowa, Manuel’s predecessor:
Larry Bowa: 337-308 (.522)
Charlie Manuel: 233-204 (.533)
The difference between the two is miniscule. Bowa’s teams went 86-76 in 2001, 2002 and 2004, his worst record being a 80-81 finish in 2003. The Phillies finished second in ’01 and ’04 and third in ’02 and ’03. Manuel’s teams finished second in 2005 (88-74) and 2006 (85-77) and currently seem destined to finish second again in 2007 (with an 86-76 record). Sure, the Phillies haven’t made the playoffs under Bowa or Manuel, but they’ve won under both managers.
Credit Manuel, however, for keeping the Phillies competitive despite struggles in terms of major injuries to key members on the roster (Jim Thome in 2005, Aaron Rowand in 2006, Chase Utley, et al., in 2007) and despite slow starts. The Phillies were .490 under Bowa in April and .424 under Manuel. Imagine if the Phillies didn’t get off to such sluggish starts these last few years: the team plays .555 baseball after April under Manuel and .528 under Bowa.
If your curious, the Phillies would have averaged 90 wins in a season if they played at their post-April pace under Manuel.
Tactically, I think Manuel makes good decisions. He's not someone who over-manages and coaches himself right out of a game. According to the 2007 Bill James Handbook, he used the fewest lineups in the N.L., he was reluctant to yank starters from games, he didn't sacrifice bunt or base-steal or try many hit-and-runs, instead relying on his team's strength, its capacity to hit the ball and hit the ball hard to score runs. A good manager days to his team's strengths.
Who will replace him? There are two candidates that spring to mind and they both sit on the Phillies bench next to Manuel. The first is Jimy Williams, the former coach of the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Astros. The 64-year old Williams has worked with Gillick before as coach of the Blue Jays from 1986 to 1989, so there is a relationship between the two. Gillick would probably feel comfortable with Williams holding the reins, however …
I think the real candidate to replace Manuel stands behind the first base bag: Davey Lopes.
This season you’ve seen real aggressiveness on the Phillies part to press aggressively on the base-paths and steal bases. Credit the Phillies newfound aggressiveness to Lopes, whose energy and enthusiasm and passion for the running game makes him Manuel’s heir apparent. True, he’s not much younger than Williams (62), and doesn’t have as much experience as a manager as Williams (340 games with the Brewers vs. 1,701), but Lopes has energy and passion, and he is selling the gospel of the running game. The Phillies under Manuel seem like an N.L. Moneyball team, reliant on the walk and the three-run home run to generate offense. With the tide turning against Moneyball and home runs in the minds of managers and pundits, Gillick and the Phillies management must be impressed with how aggressively Lopes has pushed the running game. Despite playing in a park tailor-made for bash ball, the ’07 Phillies rank second in the N.L. in stolen bases with 92. This is a much more aggressive running team, a factor I credit evenly to Lopes influence and to updates in the Phillies personnel (specifically, Shane Victorino and Michael Bourn).
Can someone do a better job? Manuel’s stumbles in April are interesting to analyze here. People fault Manuel for being too laid-back in handling his players and submit that the Phillies struggles at the outset of the season are a product of Manuel’s lack of intensity. Is that true? Bowa’s teams struggled in April too and went on to play better ball later in the season and nobody would mistake Larry Bowa for Charlie Manuel. The ’04 Phillies got off to nearly the same start – 10-11 – as Manuel did the next three seasons as skipper: 10-14 in ’05, 10-14 in ’06 and 11-14 this season. I don’t think intensity is an issue here, and I don’t think intensity is a plus either. Gene Mauch mercilessly rode his teams, and the ’64 Phillies boast one of the most epic collapses in sports history. The ’86 California Angels blew a 3-1 lead in the ALCS and dropped three in a row to the Boston Red Sox. Intense managers ride their teams into the group. Manuel was temperamentally well-suited to managing a veteran ball club like the Phillies.
What about the weather? Well, the Phillies are built around the big bang theory of baseball. April, with the rainy weather in the Northeast, is hardly the best time of year for the Phillies brand of baseball. In July and August, with the blisteringly hot weather, is great for big bang baseball. Any coincidence that the Phillies do well at this time of the season?
I hope everyone enjoyed the weekend. Tomorrow, a look at the Phillies playoff prospects.
Labels: Managing, State of the Phillies
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Small Ball Index
I thought I might look at the Phillies small-ball index today …
A little while ago I wrote that a new deadball era is emerging in baseball. No, baseball isn’t going back to the days prior to World War I, when the Philadelphia Athletics were the best team in baseball and hitting twenty home runs eclipsed what most teams did in a season, but the game is being deadened a little. I credit not only the increased scrutinty on steroids, but also the backlash against the book Moneyball and the success of small-ball teams like the Anaheim Angels. Let me talk a little about the influences on the game before turning to what the Phillies are doing:
Sports Illustrated’s piece on baseball’s second-half of the season labeled the Angels as a contender for this season – noting their impressive pitching staff – and also named them as a potential powerhouse into the future – noting their aggressive and savvy owner, their robust payroll and their well-stocked minor league system. Don’t underestimate the influence that an Angels pennant this season could have on baseball’s future. Baseball is like any sport – success breeds imitators. After the San Francisco 49ers won Super Bowl XXIX in 1994, every team suddenly was enthralled with the West Coast offense and jumped to employ it in their offensive sets. Like many who read this blog, Moneyball was a major influence on my thinking, as were the writings of Bill James. I’ve always admired people who have ideas that change the world around them. Walsh has always been a hero of mine because his West Coast offense has utterly changed the way NFL teams approach the game of football. Teams adopted the 49ers short-passing style and now virtually every team in the NFL runs some sort of variation of the West Coast offense.* There isn’t a single team in the NFL who hasn’t felt the effect of the spread of Bill Walsh’s philosophy through the league.
* Moneyball author Michael Lewis has a book out entitled The Blind Side: Evolution of a Game, where he traces this evolution, which really was a product of the AFL, the upstart league that challenged the NFL in the 1960’s. According to Lewis, the true author of the West Coast offense was Sid Gillman, the coach of the San Diego Chargers, who utilized the vertical passing game to stretch the field when he coached the Los Angeles – later San Diego – Chargers. Guys like Don Coryell and Bill Walsh took Gillman’s ideas and fleshed them out. Coryell and the Chargers of the 1970’s and early 1980’s tried to stretch the field vertically, while Walsh and the West Coast offense stretched the width of the field, utilizing the short passing game to spread the defense out.
Same thing with baseball. The success of the Oakland A’s and the spread of the gospel of Moneyball has had tremendous effect. Teams moved to embrace On-Base-Percentage (OBP). The A’s philosophy to employ the home run as a team’s primary offensive tool has had tremendous effect throughout the league.
The Angels are the anti-Moneyball team. They bunt, they steal bases, they hit-and-run. They thrive on doing “the little things” that apparently Moneyball teams don't do. They draft high school players rather than college players like the A’s. An Angels triumph in 2007 will shape the thinking of teams for years to come. Suddenly, the A’s are no longer the blue-print for success.
Don’t under-estimate the anti-intellectual backlash against Moneyball. While many embraced the book and suddenly discovered the writings of Bill James, others covered their heads in the sand and embraced what was familiar, what they were taught. I’ve compared the differences between the Moneyball and anti-Moneyballers as being akin to the Protestant / Catholic split. The Protestant Moneyballers questioned the dogma of baseball’s Holy Church and the Catholic anti-Moneyballers clung more aggressively than ever to their faith. We are today at the beginning of baseball’s counter-reformation. Expect to see the writings of Bill James lose influence in the minds of baseball executives. All the counter-reformists need is a writer to crystallize their own beliefs in print. (Calling Joe Morgan?) Buzz Bissinger’s Three Days in August comes the closest, and could still becoming the bible of Anti-Moneyballers if a much-discussed movie ever gets made.
(In the interest of full disclosure I am a Catholic. Not to ignite a religious war here, but I am going to say that I’ve found that the Catholic Church, for all its faults, is a more progressive and intellectual institution than most fundamentalist Protestant Churches. I note that so that my foregoing comments aren’t perceived as being anti-Catholic.)
And steroids. I already talked about them enough yesterday in reference to Barry Bonds. Let’s move on …
I think there is ample evidence to show that the home run is in decline. According to The Sporting News, at the start of the season 33.3% of all runs scored in baseball games came via the home run, a decline from 36.9% in 2004. According to The Sporting News, home runs accounted for all of the runs scored in baseball games:
1957: 30.6%
1961: 33.7%
1967: 28.9%
1968: 27.2%
1976: 23.4%
1977: 30.8%
1987: 35.3%
1997: 33.9%
2004: 36.9%
2007: 33.3%
Notice the evolution here: ’61 was the year of Roger Maris and expansion. The home run declined in the 1960’s with the rise of the pitcher, but teams were still adjusting. In the 1970’s teams had adjusted to the end of the pitchers era with an embrace of bunting, base-stealing and the hit-and-run. Notice how home runs had declined in 1976. The rise of steroids, smaller parks and the like shows in the 1980’s and 1990’s. The year 2004 is the apex of the home run. Any coincidence that this was also the year that the Red Sox won the World Series? The year after Moneyball was published?
Now let’s look at the Phillies. If there was ever an N.L.-Moneyball team it is the Phillies of the recent past. (The availability of the DH in the A.L. helped to facilitate the rise of the Moneyball team.) The Phillies bashed home runs, worked counts, and were a powerful offensive juggernaut in their cozy little ballpark. Last season the Phillies hired Davy Lopes to be their first base coach. Don’t underestimate the impact Lopes is having on the Phillies. With the team’s current struggles placing manager Charlie Manuel on the hot-seat, Lopes would be an easy replacement option should the Phillies decide to make a change this season or next in the dugout.
Lopes was a speedster when he played baseball in the 1970’s, back when teams had reacted to the end of the home run era by emphasizing small ball. That clearly has weighed on Lopes mind as he has sought to reintroduce the Phillies to the joys of small ball. Lopes blames the Moneyball revolution for this calamity. Says Lopes:
Lopes can’t control what the team’s overall strategy is – Charlie Manuel is the manager and makes the ultimate decisions about bunting, and the like – however, Lopes clearly is having an impact in that he’s getting the Phillies to run more. Thus far in 2007, the Phillies are averaging 0.91 attempted steals a game. Last year they averaged 0.72. His encouragement has seen Michael Bourn go 14-for-14 in steals this season, Shane Victorino go 28-for-31, and J.Roll go 16-for-20.
So are the Phillies actually playing small ball? We are going to look at three major categories: stolen bases, hitting with runners in scoring position and sacrifice hits (i.e., sac bunts).
Batting Average with Runners in Scoring Position. This is not an area of the game that the 2006 Philadelphia Phillies excelled at. The ’06 Phillies had a .255 BA/RISP, below the .264 N.L. average. Only the Astros (.253), the Nationals (.250), and the Reds (.243) did worse. Naturally, defenders of Moneyball, like myself, note that this is a somewhat irrelevant stat because the Phillies led the N.L. in runs scored in 2006 with 865. When you can sting the opposition with a 400-foot home run at any moment of the game, relying on getting runners on base is pretty much irrelevant.
The ’07 Phillies are doing pretty decently at this: .266 BA/RISP, fifth in the N.L., and better than the N.L. average of .260. Aaron Rowand is leading the way at .348 (32-for-92, with 36 RBIs), followed by Chase Utley (.311) and Ryan Howard (.309). The much-maligned, much-unloved Pat Burrell is hitting .279 with 31 RBIs in 68 At-Bats. Wes Helms (.197) and Rod Barajas (.111) are, quite frankly, terrible at moving runners this season and are really dragging on the Phillies offense.
By the way, the L.A. Dodgers are once more leading the N.L. in BA/RISP at .291, which is what they did last season (.286). Over in the A.L. the Angels are hitting just .275 with runners on, only .005 better than the A.L. average. The Moneyball teams are predictably not doing well:
BA/RISP (A.L. rank of 14 teams)
Boston: .267 (9th)
Toronto: .266 (10th)
Oakland: .234 (14th)
Moving on … Sacrifice Hits. The Colorado Rockies led the N.L. in them is 2006, with 119, which is surely a shock to those who remember the 1990’s, when the Rockies had four or five guys in the lineup who could hit 40 home runs. The ’06 Phillies ranked dead-last in sac hits with 57, well off the N.L. average of 74.
The ’07 Phillies aren’t trying the sacrifice more. They have 33 sacrifice hits, which puts them in a four-way tie for eleventh in the N.L., five off the N.L. average. This is one area of the team where Charlie Manuel’s mind appears to be made up and he’s resisting change.
Stolen bases … the Phillies rank third in the N.L. with 74 steals, just behind the Dodgers (81) and the Mets (115). What is interesting to me is how successful the Phillies are: an 86% success rate. The Mets aren’t far behind at 82%. The ’07 Phillies should easily surpass the ’06 team in terms of stolen bases. The ’07 Phillies are on a pace to take 126 bases, while the ’06 team took just 92. Here is where you are seeing Lopes influence being felt.
At the end of the season I’ll be curious to see two things:
1. How the Phillies did in terms of Manufactured Runs
2. How the Phillies did in terms of base-running.
In his 2007 Handbook, Bill James tried to define Manufactured Runs and figure out which teams did it the most. James delineated between Type-1 Manufactured Runs (a run coming directly or indirectly as a product of a sac bunt, a stolen base, a bunt hit or a hit-and-run), and Type-2 Manufactured Runs (all others, including runs scored on doubles or triples, sacrifice flies). After James ran the numbers on the ’06 campaign he determined that the Phillies ranked dead-last in the N.L. in the pure small-ball Type-1 runs with 33, 1/3 that of the Chicago Cubs with 99. Overall the Phillies had 148 Manufactured Runs, enough to rank them 12th in the N.L. The ’06 Angels ranked second in the A.L. in both the Type-1 Manufactured Runs (80, four less than the Twins), and in overall Manufactured Runs (190, 34 less than the Twins).
Obviously I don’t have the ability to pour through the stat sheets and get a rough idea about how many Manufactured Runs the Phillies will have in 2007, but I strong suspect it will be greater than what they did in 2006.
James has also sought to quantify base-running in the ’07 Handbook too. Unfortunately he didn’t rank teams, but he did rank players and we got to see that while Chase Utley is terrific (James ranked him the second-best base runner in 2006), the Phillies had a lot of slow-footed plodders on the team (Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell), those DH-types of player that Lopes was complaining about.
I am very curious to see how Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Michael Bourn change the Phillies numbers. Bourn is completely new. Victorino barely played in 2006 and still ranked as one of the top base-runners. The Phillies are trying to bench Burrell more and more. The Phillies have to be a speedier team and I hope that Bill James ranks teams as well as individuals in the 2008 Handbook.
Alright, tomorrow expect a far shorter opus on the Phillies minor leaguers.
(1) comments
A little while ago I wrote that a new deadball era is emerging in baseball. No, baseball isn’t going back to the days prior to World War I, when the Philadelphia Athletics were the best team in baseball and hitting twenty home runs eclipsed what most teams did in a season, but the game is being deadened a little. I credit not only the increased scrutinty on steroids, but also the backlash against the book Moneyball and the success of small-ball teams like the Anaheim Angels. Let me talk a little about the influences on the game before turning to what the Phillies are doing:
Sports Illustrated’s piece on baseball’s second-half of the season labeled the Angels as a contender for this season – noting their impressive pitching staff – and also named them as a potential powerhouse into the future – noting their aggressive and savvy owner, their robust payroll and their well-stocked minor league system. Don’t underestimate the influence that an Angels pennant this season could have on baseball’s future. Baseball is like any sport – success breeds imitators. After the San Francisco 49ers won Super Bowl XXIX in 1994, every team suddenly was enthralled with the West Coast offense and jumped to employ it in their offensive sets. Like many who read this blog, Moneyball was a major influence on my thinking, as were the writings of Bill James. I’ve always admired people who have ideas that change the world around them. Walsh has always been a hero of mine because his West Coast offense has utterly changed the way NFL teams approach the game of football. Teams adopted the 49ers short-passing style and now virtually every team in the NFL runs some sort of variation of the West Coast offense.* There isn’t a single team in the NFL who hasn’t felt the effect of the spread of Bill Walsh’s philosophy through the league.
* Moneyball author Michael Lewis has a book out entitled The Blind Side: Evolution of a Game, where he traces this evolution, which really was a product of the AFL, the upstart league that challenged the NFL in the 1960’s. According to Lewis, the true author of the West Coast offense was Sid Gillman, the coach of the San Diego Chargers, who utilized the vertical passing game to stretch the field when he coached the Los Angeles – later San Diego – Chargers. Guys like Don Coryell and Bill Walsh took Gillman’s ideas and fleshed them out. Coryell and the Chargers of the 1970’s and early 1980’s tried to stretch the field vertically, while Walsh and the West Coast offense stretched the width of the field, utilizing the short passing game to spread the defense out.
Same thing with baseball. The success of the Oakland A’s and the spread of the gospel of Moneyball has had tremendous effect. Teams moved to embrace On-Base-Percentage (OBP). The A’s philosophy to employ the home run as a team’s primary offensive tool has had tremendous effect throughout the league.
The Angels are the anti-Moneyball team. They bunt, they steal bases, they hit-and-run. They thrive on doing “the little things” that apparently Moneyball teams don't do. They draft high school players rather than college players like the A’s. An Angels triumph in 2007 will shape the thinking of teams for years to come. Suddenly, the A’s are no longer the blue-print for success.
Don’t under-estimate the anti-intellectual backlash against Moneyball. While many embraced the book and suddenly discovered the writings of Bill James, others covered their heads in the sand and embraced what was familiar, what they were taught. I’ve compared the differences between the Moneyball and anti-Moneyballers as being akin to the Protestant / Catholic split. The Protestant Moneyballers questioned the dogma of baseball’s Holy Church and the Catholic anti-Moneyballers clung more aggressively than ever to their faith. We are today at the beginning of baseball’s counter-reformation. Expect to see the writings of Bill James lose influence in the minds of baseball executives. All the counter-reformists need is a writer to crystallize their own beliefs in print. (Calling Joe Morgan?) Buzz Bissinger’s Three Days in August comes the closest, and could still becoming the bible of Anti-Moneyballers if a much-discussed movie ever gets made.
(In the interest of full disclosure I am a Catholic. Not to ignite a religious war here, but I am going to say that I’ve found that the Catholic Church, for all its faults, is a more progressive and intellectual institution than most fundamentalist Protestant Churches. I note that so that my foregoing comments aren’t perceived as being anti-Catholic.)
And steroids. I already talked about them enough yesterday in reference to Barry Bonds. Let’s move on …
I think there is ample evidence to show that the home run is in decline. According to The Sporting News, at the start of the season 33.3% of all runs scored in baseball games came via the home run, a decline from 36.9% in 2004. According to The Sporting News, home runs accounted for all of the runs scored in baseball games:
1957: 30.6%
1961: 33.7%
1967: 28.9%
1968: 27.2%
1976: 23.4%
1977: 30.8%
1987: 35.3%
1997: 33.9%
2004: 36.9%
2007: 33.3%
Notice the evolution here: ’61 was the year of Roger Maris and expansion. The home run declined in the 1960’s with the rise of the pitcher, but teams were still adjusting. In the 1970’s teams had adjusted to the end of the pitchers era with an embrace of bunting, base-stealing and the hit-and-run. Notice how home runs had declined in 1976. The rise of steroids, smaller parks and the like shows in the 1980’s and 1990’s. The year 2004 is the apex of the home run. Any coincidence that this was also the year that the Red Sox won the World Series? The year after Moneyball was published?
Now let’s look at the Phillies. If there was ever an N.L.-Moneyball team it is the Phillies of the recent past. (The availability of the DH in the A.L. helped to facilitate the rise of the Moneyball team.) The Phillies bashed home runs, worked counts, and were a powerful offensive juggernaut in their cozy little ballpark. Last season the Phillies hired Davy Lopes to be their first base coach. Don’t underestimate the impact Lopes is having on the Phillies. With the team’s current struggles placing manager Charlie Manuel on the hot-seat, Lopes would be an easy replacement option should the Phillies decide to make a change this season or next in the dugout.
Lopes was a speedster when he played baseball in the 1970’s, back when teams had reacted to the end of the home run era by emphasizing small ball. That clearly has weighed on Lopes mind as he has sought to reintroduce the Phillies to the joys of small ball. Lopes blames the Moneyball revolution for this calamity. Says Lopes:
Those people [i.e., the Moneyball types, sabremetricians] that came into the game and said the stolen base is a negative part of the game and took the running game out of it have just made it more boring. Too many teams are sitting back waiting for the three-run homer. You’ve got a bunch of guys who are slow afoot, go one base at a time, clog up the bases, and that’s pretty much
what the game has become. A nonathletic-type game. We’ve got too many DHs.
Lopes can’t control what the team’s overall strategy is – Charlie Manuel is the manager and makes the ultimate decisions about bunting, and the like – however, Lopes clearly is having an impact in that he’s getting the Phillies to run more. Thus far in 2007, the Phillies are averaging 0.91 attempted steals a game. Last year they averaged 0.72. His encouragement has seen Michael Bourn go 14-for-14 in steals this season, Shane Victorino go 28-for-31, and J.Roll go 16-for-20.
So are the Phillies actually playing small ball? We are going to look at three major categories: stolen bases, hitting with runners in scoring position and sacrifice hits (i.e., sac bunts).
Batting Average with Runners in Scoring Position. This is not an area of the game that the 2006 Philadelphia Phillies excelled at. The ’06 Phillies had a .255 BA/RISP, below the .264 N.L. average. Only the Astros (.253), the Nationals (.250), and the Reds (.243) did worse. Naturally, defenders of Moneyball, like myself, note that this is a somewhat irrelevant stat because the Phillies led the N.L. in runs scored in 2006 with 865. When you can sting the opposition with a 400-foot home run at any moment of the game, relying on getting runners on base is pretty much irrelevant.
The ’07 Phillies are doing pretty decently at this: .266 BA/RISP, fifth in the N.L., and better than the N.L. average of .260. Aaron Rowand is leading the way at .348 (32-for-92, with 36 RBIs), followed by Chase Utley (.311) and Ryan Howard (.309). The much-maligned, much-unloved Pat Burrell is hitting .279 with 31 RBIs in 68 At-Bats. Wes Helms (.197) and Rod Barajas (.111) are, quite frankly, terrible at moving runners this season and are really dragging on the Phillies offense.
By the way, the L.A. Dodgers are once more leading the N.L. in BA/RISP at .291, which is what they did last season (.286). Over in the A.L. the Angels are hitting just .275 with runners on, only .005 better than the A.L. average. The Moneyball teams are predictably not doing well:
BA/RISP (A.L. rank of 14 teams)
Boston: .267 (9th)
Toronto: .266 (10th)
Oakland: .234 (14th)
Moving on … Sacrifice Hits. The Colorado Rockies led the N.L. in them is 2006, with 119, which is surely a shock to those who remember the 1990’s, when the Rockies had four or five guys in the lineup who could hit 40 home runs. The ’06 Phillies ranked dead-last in sac hits with 57, well off the N.L. average of 74.
The ’07 Phillies aren’t trying the sacrifice more. They have 33 sacrifice hits, which puts them in a four-way tie for eleventh in the N.L., five off the N.L. average. This is one area of the team where Charlie Manuel’s mind appears to be made up and he’s resisting change.
Stolen bases … the Phillies rank third in the N.L. with 74 steals, just behind the Dodgers (81) and the Mets (115). What is interesting to me is how successful the Phillies are: an 86% success rate. The Mets aren’t far behind at 82%. The ’07 Phillies should easily surpass the ’06 team in terms of stolen bases. The ’07 Phillies are on a pace to take 126 bases, while the ’06 team took just 92. Here is where you are seeing Lopes influence being felt.
At the end of the season I’ll be curious to see two things:
1. How the Phillies did in terms of Manufactured Runs
2. How the Phillies did in terms of base-running.
In his 2007 Handbook, Bill James tried to define Manufactured Runs and figure out which teams did it the most. James delineated between Type-1 Manufactured Runs (a run coming directly or indirectly as a product of a sac bunt, a stolen base, a bunt hit or a hit-and-run), and Type-2 Manufactured Runs (all others, including runs scored on doubles or triples, sacrifice flies). After James ran the numbers on the ’06 campaign he determined that the Phillies ranked dead-last in the N.L. in the pure small-ball Type-1 runs with 33, 1/3 that of the Chicago Cubs with 99. Overall the Phillies had 148 Manufactured Runs, enough to rank them 12th in the N.L. The ’06 Angels ranked second in the A.L. in both the Type-1 Manufactured Runs (80, four less than the Twins), and in overall Manufactured Runs (190, 34 less than the Twins).
Obviously I don’t have the ability to pour through the stat sheets and get a rough idea about how many Manufactured Runs the Phillies will have in 2007, but I strong suspect it will be greater than what they did in 2006.
James has also sought to quantify base-running in the ’07 Handbook too. Unfortunately he didn’t rank teams, but he did rank players and we got to see that while Chase Utley is terrific (James ranked him the second-best base runner in 2006), the Phillies had a lot of slow-footed plodders on the team (Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell), those DH-types of player that Lopes was complaining about.
I am very curious to see how Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Michael Bourn change the Phillies numbers. Bourn is completely new. Victorino barely played in 2006 and still ranked as one of the top base-runners. The Phillies are trying to bench Burrell more and more. The Phillies have to be a speedier team and I hope that Bill James ranks teams as well as individuals in the 2008 Handbook.
Alright, tomorrow expect a far shorter opus on the Phillies minor leaguers.
Labels: Bourn, Bunting, Burrell, Helms, Howard, Managing, Speed, Utley, Victorino
Friday, April 06, 2007
Predictability
Predictably the Phillies season opened with the team being swept by the Atlanta Braves. Predictably the media is chortling over the highly touted Phillies stumbles, predictably resurrecting Jimmy Rollins claim that the Phillies are the team to beat in the N.L. East. Predictably the Phillies bullpen stumbled badly. Predictably Charlie Manuel made decisions that seemed sound but promptly blew up in his face. Predictably one of the Phillies major off-season acquisitions, Adam Eaton, was destroyed in his first start with the team.
Well, that just figures.
The ’07 Phillies opened the campaign with a 0-3 start to the Atlanta Braves. Yesterday’s game was a fiasco from start to end. Eaton went just four and two-thirds, surrendering eight runs (seven earned), on seven hits and four walks. Astonishingly, the bullpen actually successfully shut the braves down, holding them to a pair of hits and a walk while striking out nine Braves for the rest of the game. Expect to see a lot more of Antonio Alfonseca in the future after the struggles of Gordon and Madson in the first two games as Charlie Manuel searches for a solution.
As for Charlie Manuel, people will predictably assail his decision-making, asking why he chose to leave Brett Myers in on Opening Day to face Edgar Renteria. I wouldn’t fault Manuel at all, he’s a smart guy who made a solid decision on opening day: your pitcher is virtually unhittable, so why not leave him in and see what he can do against a light-hitting shortstop?
The weakness of the 2007 Phillies lies in their porous bullpen. That’s pretty apparent, so I’d expect to see Pat Gillick move immediately to shore up this weak point. Yesterday, for example, they acquired minor-leaguer Francisco Rosario from the Toronto Blue Jays for cash. Perhaps Gillick will try to deal Aaron Rowand to the Padres again for Scott Linebrick?
So the Phillies are off to an 0-3 start. You can’t put too much stock into the opening series of the season. The Pittsburgh Pirates are 3-0 right now and does anyone expect them to win the N.L. Central? Take a deep breath and relax Phillies fans. The season is a marathon, not a sprint.
So what is next for the Red Pinstripes? A trip to Florida to duel with the Marlins, themselves 2-1. Going tonight for the Phillies is Jamie Moyer, exactly the tonic the Phillies need, a veteran pitcher who will be unfazed by the yelling and screaming and will concentrate on what the Phillies really need: a win.
Have a nice weekend, everyone!
(2) comments
Well, that just figures.
The ’07 Phillies opened the campaign with a 0-3 start to the Atlanta Braves. Yesterday’s game was a fiasco from start to end. Eaton went just four and two-thirds, surrendering eight runs (seven earned), on seven hits and four walks. Astonishingly, the bullpen actually successfully shut the braves down, holding them to a pair of hits and a walk while striking out nine Braves for the rest of the game. Expect to see a lot more of Antonio Alfonseca in the future after the struggles of Gordon and Madson in the first two games as Charlie Manuel searches for a solution.
As for Charlie Manuel, people will predictably assail his decision-making, asking why he chose to leave Brett Myers in on Opening Day to face Edgar Renteria. I wouldn’t fault Manuel at all, he’s a smart guy who made a solid decision on opening day: your pitcher is virtually unhittable, so why not leave him in and see what he can do against a light-hitting shortstop?
The weakness of the 2007 Phillies lies in their porous bullpen. That’s pretty apparent, so I’d expect to see Pat Gillick move immediately to shore up this weak point. Yesterday, for example, they acquired minor-leaguer Francisco Rosario from the Toronto Blue Jays for cash. Perhaps Gillick will try to deal Aaron Rowand to the Padres again for Scott Linebrick?
So the Phillies are off to an 0-3 start. You can’t put too much stock into the opening series of the season. The Pittsburgh Pirates are 3-0 right now and does anyone expect them to win the N.L. Central? Take a deep breath and relax Phillies fans. The season is a marathon, not a sprint.
So what is next for the Red Pinstripes? A trip to Florida to duel with the Marlins, themselves 2-1. Going tonight for the Phillies is Jamie Moyer, exactly the tonic the Phillies need, a veteran pitcher who will be unfazed by the yelling and screaming and will concentrate on what the Phillies really need: a win.
Have a nice weekend, everyone!
Labels: Alfonseca, Managing, Moyer, Rowand
Tuesday, April 03, 2007
Opening Day & Roster Thoughts…
I am certain that people will blow yesterday's 5-3 loss to the Atlanta Braves wildly out of proportion. Yes, it is disheartening that the Phillies lost and their new and improved pitching staff surrendered three home runs. And yes, the Phillies blew a slew of chances (bottom of the fourth, the Phillies have Chase Utley and Pat Burrell on second and third and Rowand lines out to Renteria) to score runs, but how often is Edgar Renteria going to beat you with two home runs? There is a lot to be happy with:
-Jimmy Rollins is off to a hot start, hitting his first home run of the year, going 2-for-5 yesterday.
-Brett Myers pitched a nice game, going seven and two-thirds of an inning and surrendering just three runs (okay, there are two home runs in there), while getting nine strikeouts and giving up two walks. Myers looked great and really dominated a dangerous Braves lineup at times. Seventy of Myers 106 pitches yesterday were strikes. Nice.
Obviously there is a lot to dislike: the bullpen effectively lost the game, the team blew scoring chances, etc. Look on the bright side: the Braves couldn't muster any offense without the long ball. Out of their seven hits, three were home runs.
Predictably there will be a lot of second-guessing of Charlie Manuel for leaving Brett Myers in to face Renteria in the eighth inning. In this age of pitch counts and coddling starters, it is a little refreshing to see the manager give his guy the ball and say: "Get 'em." Letting your starter go 7, 8 innings is as old school as baseball strategy gets these days. More like the days of Robin Roberts than Trevor Hoffman. Disagree with me, but I don't think that Charlie Manuel made the wrong call by leaving a starter having a strong day in to face a light-hitting shortstop with nobody on.
That'll do it for our Opening Day post-mortem. Now, I have a couple of thoughts on the Phillies 2007 Roster. I predicted that the Phillies starting lineup would be:
SS – Jimmy Rollins
RF – Shane Victorino
2B – Chase Utley
1B – Ryan Howard
LF – Pat Burrell
CF – Aaron Rowand
3B – Wes Helms
C – Rod Barajas
Pitcher
Well … Flip Helms and Rowand and I got the call right on the money. I actually like the way Manuel has constructed the Phillies lineup a little better: Helms will be a better, more potent, threat at the plate than Rowand.
Next, the Bench. I predicted that the Bench would look like …
OF – Jayson Werth
OF – Chris Roberson
IF – Danny Sandoval
IF – Abraham Nunez
C – Carlos Ruiz
IF/ C – Chris Coste
In actuality …
OF – Jayson Werth
OF – Michael Bourn
IF – Greg Dobbs
IF – Abraham Nunez
C – Carlos Ruiz
IF/ C – Chris Coste (?)
I was certain that Roberson and Sandoval would be a part of the Phillies roster as they traveled north. I am delighted to see that they are not. Sandoval, a poor performer and fairly old (28) career minor leaguer, was passed over in favor of Dobbs, a talented (if light-hitting – just two career home runs) player from the Seattle Mariners who has more of an upside.
I am particularly delighted by the Phillies decision to offer the job of the fifth outfielder to Bourn, a talented speedster with a much greater upside than Roberson. Theoretically Roberson, the more senior and experienced player should have been offered the job while Bourn, who played just 38 games of Triple-A ball, should have been sent to Ottawa for “seasoning”. Instead the Phillies made a bold decision to give the job to Bourn. Bourn is a much, much faster player who is a better threat to get on base and to supply some speed to the Phillies on the base paths. In 2006 Bourn had a higher On-Base-Percentage (OBP than Roberson did in Scranton (.368 vs. .349), and was a better base-stealer (15 of 16 vs. 25 of 24). This is a great move by the Phillies brass and really shows a lot of boldness. Rather than play cautiously and give the job to Roberson they are going to roll the dice and give Bourn a shot. Well done.
I put a question mark next to Coste, because I think/hope the Phillies are ultimately going to give the final roster spot to Coste, who is currently on the 15-Day DL for a minor muscle ailment. Expect Coste, a real jack of all trades (catcher, infielder), to be #25 on the Phillies roster.
The pitching staff …
Projected / Opening Day
Cole Hamels / same
Brett Myers / same
Jamie Moyer / same
Freddy Garcia / Zach Segovia
Adam Eaton / same
Jon Lieber / Clay Condrey
Ryan Madson / same
Geoff Geary / same
Fabio Castro / Matt Smith
Alfonso Alfonseca / same
Tom Gordon / same
Basically what I expected. Injuries to Lieber and Garcia have required the Phillies to bring in some help, particularly Segovia, a highly talented minor-leaguer who is actually slated to start for the Phillies on Sunday against the Florida Marlins. Segovia pitched in Double-A Reading in 2006, so skipping a season in Ottawa and getting to start in the bigs would be a major moment for Segovia.
Today is an off-day. I'll be back to preview Cole Hamels v. Tim Hudson tomorrow.
(3) comments
-Jimmy Rollins is off to a hot start, hitting his first home run of the year, going 2-for-5 yesterday.
-Brett Myers pitched a nice game, going seven and two-thirds of an inning and surrendering just three runs (okay, there are two home runs in there), while getting nine strikeouts and giving up two walks. Myers looked great and really dominated a dangerous Braves lineup at times. Seventy of Myers 106 pitches yesterday were strikes. Nice.
Obviously there is a lot to dislike: the bullpen effectively lost the game, the team blew scoring chances, etc. Look on the bright side: the Braves couldn't muster any offense without the long ball. Out of their seven hits, three were home runs.
Predictably there will be a lot of second-guessing of Charlie Manuel for leaving Brett Myers in to face Renteria in the eighth inning. In this age of pitch counts and coddling starters, it is a little refreshing to see the manager give his guy the ball and say: "Get 'em." Letting your starter go 7, 8 innings is as old school as baseball strategy gets these days. More like the days of Robin Roberts than Trevor Hoffman. Disagree with me, but I don't think that Charlie Manuel made the wrong call by leaving a starter having a strong day in to face a light-hitting shortstop with nobody on.
That'll do it for our Opening Day post-mortem. Now, I have a couple of thoughts on the Phillies 2007 Roster. I predicted that the Phillies starting lineup would be:
SS – Jimmy Rollins
RF – Shane Victorino
2B – Chase Utley
1B – Ryan Howard
LF – Pat Burrell
CF – Aaron Rowand
3B – Wes Helms
C – Rod Barajas
Pitcher
Well … Flip Helms and Rowand and I got the call right on the money. I actually like the way Manuel has constructed the Phillies lineup a little better: Helms will be a better, more potent, threat at the plate than Rowand.
Next, the Bench. I predicted that the Bench would look like …
OF – Jayson Werth
OF – Chris Roberson
IF – Danny Sandoval
IF – Abraham Nunez
C – Carlos Ruiz
IF/ C – Chris Coste
In actuality …
OF – Jayson Werth
OF – Michael Bourn
IF – Greg Dobbs
IF – Abraham Nunez
C – Carlos Ruiz
IF/ C – Chris Coste (?)
I was certain that Roberson and Sandoval would be a part of the Phillies roster as they traveled north. I am delighted to see that they are not. Sandoval, a poor performer and fairly old (28) career minor leaguer, was passed over in favor of Dobbs, a talented (if light-hitting – just two career home runs) player from the Seattle Mariners who has more of an upside.
I am particularly delighted by the Phillies decision to offer the job of the fifth outfielder to Bourn, a talented speedster with a much greater upside than Roberson. Theoretically Roberson, the more senior and experienced player should have been offered the job while Bourn, who played just 38 games of Triple-A ball, should have been sent to Ottawa for “seasoning”. Instead the Phillies made a bold decision to give the job to Bourn. Bourn is a much, much faster player who is a better threat to get on base and to supply some speed to the Phillies on the base paths. In 2006 Bourn had a higher On-Base-Percentage (OBP than Roberson did in Scranton (.368 vs. .349), and was a better base-stealer (15 of 16 vs. 25 of 24). This is a great move by the Phillies brass and really shows a lot of boldness. Rather than play cautiously and give the job to Roberson they are going to roll the dice and give Bourn a shot. Well done.
I put a question mark next to Coste, because I think/hope the Phillies are ultimately going to give the final roster spot to Coste, who is currently on the 15-Day DL for a minor muscle ailment. Expect Coste, a real jack of all trades (catcher, infielder), to be #25 on the Phillies roster.
The pitching staff …
Projected / Opening Day
Cole Hamels / same
Brett Myers / same
Jamie Moyer / same
Freddy Garcia / Zach Segovia
Adam Eaton / same
Jon Lieber / Clay Condrey
Ryan Madson / same
Geoff Geary / same
Fabio Castro / Matt Smith
Alfonso Alfonseca / same
Tom Gordon / same
Basically what I expected. Injuries to Lieber and Garcia have required the Phillies to bring in some help, particularly Segovia, a highly talented minor-leaguer who is actually slated to start for the Phillies on Sunday against the Florida Marlins. Segovia pitched in Double-A Reading in 2006, so skipping a season in Ottawa and getting to start in the bigs would be a major moment for Segovia.
Today is an off-day. I'll be back to preview Cole Hamels v. Tim Hudson tomorrow.
Labels: Managing, Myers, Pitching, Rollins
Monday, March 26, 2007
The Journey North: Quick Start
Time to start thinking about the Phillies opening month of the season. Part of being a Phillies fan is dealing with the anger and frustration you feel watching your team start slowly and find itself battling to make the playoffs. Since moving to Citizens Bank Ballpark in 2004 the Phillies are 30-39 in the month of April, going 10-11, 10-14 and 10-14 the last three seasons. In 2004 they emerged from April in fourth place, four games out; in 2005 the Phillies were dead-last and five games out of first; last season the Phillies were in third-place but were six games behind the Mets already. Slow starts have bred pessimism amongst the fan base and left the Phillies scrambling to catch up to the leaders. If the Phillies can start strong then they’ll be in good position to close the season strong.
The Phillies open the season at home on April 2 with the Atlanta Braves, then get an off day before going again on April 4th and 5th. The Braves series gives the Phillies a nice chance to serve notice on the Bland Empire that they won’t be able to resurrect their 1991-2005 success. Add in the fact that the Phillies were 11-7 against the Braves last season and have had real success over the last several years with them, there is a real possibility for the Phillies to get off to a 2-1 or a 3-0 start to the season. The Opening series will also be an opportunity for Phillies fans to see how dominating the new rotation is: assuming that Cole Hamels, Brett Myers and Freddy Garcia will go 1, 2, 3 in the rotation, then we can see if the Phillies starting pitching is going to dominate the division this year, as we hope it will. (We'll also have to see if Garcia is healthy...)
After the Braves the Phillies go on the road to square off with more N.L. East foes, traveling to South Florida to play the Marlins over the weekend and then going to Queens to play the Mets starting April 9th. After an off-day on the 10th, the Mets and Phillies go again April 11th and 12th, before the Phillies head home and start a home-stand.
Again, as with the Braves, the Phillies have an opportunity to gain separation from their N.L. East rivals. The fact that they play N.L. East teams in their first nine games is a real opportunity. The Mets series in New York in particular is important for the Phillies to win, given that the Mets are expected to be the Phillies main rival for the division title.
Heading home the Phillies play the Astros for three games, which ought to be two or three wins, then play a two-set set with the Mets before heading on the road to Washington D.C. to play the Nats and then traveling to Cincinnati to play the Reds. The Phillies close the month with home games against the Nationals and Marlins. Of the Phillies 26 games in April, 20 are against N.L. East teams. This is a unique opportunity for the Phillies to move ahead and capture a lead in the division by defeating rivals.
So the opportunity exists for the Phillies to get out to a quick start.
Let’s talk worst-case scenario: what if the Phillies struggle out of the gate?
Chaos.
Simply put, there is tremendous pressure on this team to succeed. If they don’t I predict that Pat Gillick and the Phillies High Command will fire Charlie Manuel in May and replace him with Davey Lopes in an effort to fire the team up, then if the team doesn’t show immediate improvement, watch Gillick attempt to move Pat Burrell and Aaron Rowand to anyone who will take them. Such a shakeup would probably end the Phillies season and leave the team thinking about 2008. So, yes, a quick start is vital for the Phillies.
(3) comments
The Phillies open the season at home on April 2 with the Atlanta Braves, then get an off day before going again on April 4th and 5th. The Braves series gives the Phillies a nice chance to serve notice on the Bland Empire that they won’t be able to resurrect their 1991-2005 success. Add in the fact that the Phillies were 11-7 against the Braves last season and have had real success over the last several years with them, there is a real possibility for the Phillies to get off to a 2-1 or a 3-0 start to the season. The Opening series will also be an opportunity for Phillies fans to see how dominating the new rotation is: assuming that Cole Hamels, Brett Myers and Freddy Garcia will go 1, 2, 3 in the rotation, then we can see if the Phillies starting pitching is going to dominate the division this year, as we hope it will. (We'll also have to see if Garcia is healthy...)
After the Braves the Phillies go on the road to square off with more N.L. East foes, traveling to South Florida to play the Marlins over the weekend and then going to Queens to play the Mets starting April 9th. After an off-day on the 10th, the Mets and Phillies go again April 11th and 12th, before the Phillies head home and start a home-stand.
Again, as with the Braves, the Phillies have an opportunity to gain separation from their N.L. East rivals. The fact that they play N.L. East teams in their first nine games is a real opportunity. The Mets series in New York in particular is important for the Phillies to win, given that the Mets are expected to be the Phillies main rival for the division title.
Heading home the Phillies play the Astros for three games, which ought to be two or three wins, then play a two-set set with the Mets before heading on the road to Washington D.C. to play the Nats and then traveling to Cincinnati to play the Reds. The Phillies close the month with home games against the Nationals and Marlins. Of the Phillies 26 games in April, 20 are against N.L. East teams. This is a unique opportunity for the Phillies to move ahead and capture a lead in the division by defeating rivals.
So the opportunity exists for the Phillies to get out to a quick start.
Let’s talk worst-case scenario: what if the Phillies struggle out of the gate?
Chaos.
Simply put, there is tremendous pressure on this team to succeed. If they don’t I predict that Pat Gillick and the Phillies High Command will fire Charlie Manuel in May and replace him with Davey Lopes in an effort to fire the team up, then if the team doesn’t show immediate improvement, watch Gillick attempt to move Pat Burrell and Aaron Rowand to anyone who will take them. Such a shakeup would probably end the Phillies season and leave the team thinking about 2008. So, yes, a quick start is vital for the Phillies.
Labels: Managing, Predictions
Monday, March 12, 2007
2007 Phillies Season Preview
Instead of doing usual, massive three-part season preview that rehashes things we already talked about in my season in review last year, I am going to write a single look ahead at the Phillies 2007 season and hopefully cover some new ground. We start with …
I. The Starting Rotation. Undoubtedly the new Phillies rotation is a good deal stronger than it was in 2006 or any season in recent memory. This is very good news because the 2007 Phillies are going to sink or swim based on how their rotation holds up. Gone (sort of) are disappointing veteran performers like Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle. Failed starter Ryan Madson is back in the bullpen where he belongs. Gone is ace-to-be Gavin Floyd, busy rehabbing his career in Chicago with the White Sox as part of the Freddy Garcia deal. In short, the Phillies starting rotation looks nothing like it did on Opening Day 2006. Aside from Brett Myers not one of the Phillies five front-line pitchers was in a Phillies uniform on Opening Day last year.
I. The Starting Rotation. Undoubtedly the new Phillies rotation is a good deal stronger than it was in 2006 or any season in recent memory. This is very good news because the 2007 Phillies are going to sink or swim based on how their rotation holds up. Gone (sort of) are disappointing veteran performers like Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle. Failed starter Ryan Madson is back in the bullpen where he belongs. Gone is ace-to-be Gavin Floyd, busy rehabbing his career in Chicago with the White Sox as part of the Freddy Garcia deal. In short, the Phillies starting rotation looks nothing like it did on Opening Day 2006. Aside from Brett Myers not one of the Phillies five front-line pitchers was in a Phillies uniform on Opening Day last year.
I am going to stop right here. Whenever I forget to define stats I post in this blog I get emails from people utterly baffled by what a mean when I note that a player's FIP was 3.91 in 2006, which was lower than his 3.74 FIP in 2005. To understand what I am talking about when it comes to pitching stats, here are definitions:
WHIP – Walks plus hits by innings pitched: (BB + H) / IP = WHIP
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
WHIP – Walks plus hits by innings pitched: (BB + H) / IP = WHIP
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
DER – Defense Efficiency Ratio: (Batters Faced – (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) / (Batters Faced – (Home Runs, Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) How often fielders convert balls put into play into outs.
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
The upgrade from ’06 to ‘07 is tremendous. The Phillies are going into battle with a fearsome staff. The team’s ace is going to be young Cole Hamels, the aggressive 23-year old pitcher who was 9-8 with a 4.08 ERA in 2006. After a choppy start Hamels improved as the season wore on, developing pin-point control to go with his blazing-quick fastball. Impressively Hamels struck-out 26% of the batters he faced, 145 in 132 & 1/3 innings pitched. While struggling at times with allowing walks in the beginning of the season, Hamels quickly settled in and cut-down on the free passes he issued. Hamels strikeout/walk ratio went from 1.83 prior to the All-Star Break to 4.20 after.
Pre / Post All-Star Break
ERA: 5.44 / 3.39
HR/9: 1.01 / 1.44
BB/9: 4.84 / 2.46
K/9: 8.87 / 10.37
My belief is that Hamels will improve and quickly establish himself as the Phillies ace pitcher in 2007.
Complimenting Hamels is Brett Myers, who will hopefully avoid problems with the criminal justice system in 2007. Myers went 12-7 with a 3.91 ERA in 2006 and is poised to improve on that in 2007. Myers makes a great compliment to Hamels. In fact, Hamels and Myers posted remarkably similar stats in 2006:
Hamels / Myers
HR/9: 1.29 / 1.32
BB/9: 3.26 / 2.86
K/9: 9.86 / 8.59
What is exciting about Myers is watching him continue to refine his skill and become a better and better pitcher. After going 11-11 with a 5.52 ERA in 2004, Myers has settled down, lowered the number of home runs he surrendered, and become a much more effective pitcher. The last two seasons he’s been 25-15 with a 3.81 ERA. Myers gets three strikeouts for every walk, and can get even better.
Freddy Garcia is the Phillies biggest off-season acquisition. What pitcher will show up in 2007? The Garcia who went 14-8 with a 3.87 ERA while helping the White Sox win their first World Series in … well, a loooong time, in 2005? Or the guy who went 17-9, but with a 4.53 ERA. Aside from issuing a few more home runs in 2006 than he did in the White Sox magical season in ’05, Garcia was pretty consistent last year. He numbers did not change much:
2005 / 2006
HR/9: 1.03 / 1.33
BB/9: 2.37 / 2.00
K/9: 5.76 / 5.62
What the Phillies are getting in Freddy Garcia – and they probably won’t have it in 2008 because Garcia will command on the open market more than the Phillies can hope to spend – is a pitcher who doesn’t give up many walks. Over the last several seasons Garcia has cut down on the free passes, from 2.74 in 2004, to 2.37 in 2005, to 2.00 last season. Not allowing home runs and walks is the hallmark of a good pitcher and Garcia has the tools to succeed at Citizens Bank Ballpark.
Adam Eaton, the number four starter, is an open question-mark. A former Phillies first-rounder, Eaton was signed in the off-season from the Texas Rangers. Eaton, who had been dealt by the team to the San Diego Padres back in 1999, has a checkered past history and could either make the Phillies a formidable staff or a strong staff with a hole in it:
To-wit, Eaton went just 7-6 with a 5.12 ERA in 2006. He struck out just 5.95 batters per nine innings and walked 3.32 per nine. The season before Eaton did a little better. Certainly his 11-5 record looked much better (as did his 4.27 ERA), and he struck out more batters (6.99 K/9), but he gave up a large number of walks (3.08 BB/9). The season previous to that, Eaton was 11-14 with a 4.61 ERA but he got strikeouts (6.92 K/9) and he cut-down on the walks (2.35 BB/9). He’s a talented player with great stuff in his arsenal of pitches, but I am not entirely sure that he’ll put things together and be a dominant pitcher. The other issue, of course, is durability. Eaton was injured in 2006, which is why he hurled just 65 innings in 2006. Can he be a durable pitcher for the Phillies? Or will their depth be challenged?
Finally we come to Jamie Moyer, the Phillies 44-year old fifth starting pitcher who was acquired late in the season and went 5-2 with a 4.03 ERA with the Phillies. I am sure one day that someone will write a biography of Moyer’s life or will make a movie or something because if nobody does, it will be a shame. At the age of 44 Moyer is starting over with the Phillies after being a Seattle Mariner for ten seasons. He’s had a remarkable career, particularly of late, getting his first twenty-game win season when he was 38, and getting his second at 40.
Never much of a strikeout artist (5.35 K/9 in his career), Moyer did it by keeping guys from getting walks, keeping them from hitting home runs, and letting his fielders do the work. Moyer’s arrival on the team coincided with a rise in the team DER for the month of September to .707, much better than what the team did in the regular season. The team’s DER behind Moyer was phenomenal – .735 – much better than what it was behind Cole Hamels (.700) or Brett Myers (.689). You have to give credit, at least a little, to Moyer for controlling the situation with his off-speed pitches and other junk. Moyer seems penciled in as the Phillies fifth starter and will get a work-out this season.
After Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Eaton and Garcia, there is Jon Lieber, who is in the walk year of his three-year, $21 mil deal with the Phillies. I’ve been greatly frustrated with Lieber, a pitcher whose signing I applauded in 2004. Alas, Lieber has gone just 26-24 with the Phillies, with a 4.51 ERA. I had expected him to be stingy with allowing walks (and to his credit he was – 1.51 BB/9) and with home runs (which he was not, allowing 1.39 HR/9 … sixty in two seasons). Lieber’s strategy of throwing lots of groundball outs really didn’t work too well when the Phillies defense decided to tank in 2006. Lieber’s struggles with the Phillies aren’t really his fault … well, not entirely, but he simply didn’t develop into the pitcher that me and many other assumed he’d be when the Phillies inked the deal back in ’04.
At the moment Lieber is occupying a netherworld, the sixth starter on a team that needs five. It seems likely that he’ll be relegated to the bullpen as a long-inning relief artist / emergency starter if Adam Eaton or Jamie Moyer go down. I tend to think that the Phillies will deal him … maybe even as I write this … to some pitching-desperate team in exchange for prospects or outfield help for the Phillies. We shall see …
Should the Phillies trade Jon Lieber, expect the Phillies to turn to their farm system and bring up Scott Mathieson, should there be a good for help in the rotation. Matheson is a talented 23-year old right-hander who went 1-4 with a 7.47 ERA with the Phillies in 2006. If Mathieson is pressed into duty thanks to an injury to Eaton or Moyer, I hope he will do better.
II. The Bullpen. The conventional wisdom on the ’06 Phillies was that their bullpen, expected to be a weakness, turned into an unexpected strength. Yes, I would agree that the Phillies did surprise people with having a good – but not great – bullpen last season. However, I also don’t believe that the Phillies ‘pen was that good. Yes, it ranked third in the N.L. in ERA amongst relief pitchers. However, I think that the bullpen was a beneficiary of good defense, or luck … or both. The Phillies ’07 bullpen has a lot of issues, beginning with closer Tom Gordon.
I had been skeptical of Gordon when he signed with the Phillies to replace Billy Wagner given that he was fairly old for a baseball player – he was entering his eighteenth MLB season – and had recently been a set-up man, not a closer, for the Yankees. He hadn’t been used exclusively as a closer since he played with the Cubs in 2001. Could he make the transition to relief artist? I was skeptical, but for half of the season Tom Gordon proved me wrong. Pre-All Star Break Gordon went 3-3 with 21 saves and a 2.17 ERA. He actually made the 2006 All-Star Game as one of the Phillies three representatives, and their sole pitcher. The second half of the season was a major disaster, however, as Gordon went 0-1 with just 13 saves and a 5.32 ERA.
Will Gordon return and duplicate his first-half performance or his second? My money is on his second-half performance and I fear that Gordon’s inability to close games could sabotage the Phillies right out of the gate. Simply put, for the Phillies to do something this season they need to get out of the gate quick and avoid some of the sluggish starts they’ve had in the past. Having Gordon struggle at the outset of the season would be a disaster.
After Gordon the Phillies have Ryan Madson, a player whom Phillies bloggers ("phloggers"?) have long been high on. Madson did two stints in the Phillies rotation as a starter, a job that he most definitely did not excel at, going 8-5, but with a 6.28 ERA. Ryan was moved back to the bullpen where he pitched better, but still probably suffered from the whole starting experience. The differences between Ryan Madson the reliever and Ryan Madson the starter in ’06 were stark:
Relief / Starter
HR/9: 1.02 / 1.49
BB/9: 2.66 / 3.69
K/9: 7.77 / 6.08
K/BB: 2.92 / 1.61
ERA: 4.50 / 6.28
WHIP: 1.48 / 1.78
Ryan will step into the role of being the Phillies set-up man, typically pitching the seventh or eighth innings to set Tom Gordon up to close out Phillies victories. I wonder, however, if Ryan can step into the role of closing games should Tom Gordon struggle.
Another key piece of the Phillies relief corps puzzle is Geoff Geary. Geary went 7-1 with a 2.96 ERA in 2006, setting up several saves for Tom Gordon. Geary is a groundball oriented pitcher who keeps the ball in the park, avoid allowing walks and gets his share of strikeouts. It is hard to not be impressed by what he did in 2006:
HR/9: 0.59
BB/9: 1.97
K/9: 5.91
K/BB: 3.00
WHIP: 1.35
Geary was durable too, appearing in 81 games for the Phillies and hurling 91 & 1/3 innings of work. More than Ryan Madson, perhaps more than Tom Gordon, Geoff Geary was the top Phillies reliever in 2006. Look who had the best Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA amongst the relief artists in 2006:
FIP:
Geary: 3.48
Castro: 3.69
Gordon: 3.86
White: 4.40
Madson: 4.93
Oh, and by the way, Geary had 10 Win Shares to Gordon’s 8 in 2006.
Fabio Castro, acquired by the team midseason from the Texas Rangers, will play a big role for the team in 2007. A young player – just 22 – Castro is a good left arm to balance out Madson and Geary, a pair of righties. He certainly pitched well with the Phillies in ’06, appearing in 16 games with hurling an ERA of 1.54. Despite hurling a number of innings at Citizens Bank, Castro allowed just one home run and struck out 5.01 batters per nine innings and allowed 2.31 walks per nine.
It will be interesting to see what Castro can do in the future. 2006 was his rookie campaign, and he only pitched seventeen and one-third innings of Double-A or Triple-A ball. In 2005 he hurled 79 innings in Winston-Salem and struck out 75 batters, with a 5-5 record and a 2.28 ERA. He’s got skills and it will be interesting to see how he develops them. Fabio Castro might supplant Madson and – perhaps – Geary as the Phillies main set-up man.
Also rejoining the Phillies ‘pen after having been acquired in midseason from the Cincinnati Reds is Rick White, who 3-1 with a 4.34 ERA with the Phillies. White pitched okay with the Phillies, surrendering just 0.72 home runs per nine innings, however he also allowed 3.61 walks per nine innings. I’m not particularly high on White because he surrendered so many walks in 2006, a terrible trait in a pitcher and particularly one who is supposed to close games out.
That is the bullpen. I have confidence in Geary and Madson to set up the save for Gordon, but I have major problems believing that Gordon can get the job done in ‘07. I suppose we’ll see …
III. The Position Players. You have to give the Phillies offense a lot of credit in 2006. They led the N.L. in runs scored with 865, and it was a good thing too, because the Phillies pitchers gave up 812 runs. Their 865 runs were 94 runs better than the N.L. average of 771. Why were the Phillies so successful? To get a real good feel for how the Phillies offense functions take a quick gander at how many types of hits they had vs. the league averages:
National League / Phillies (Phillies +/-)
Singles: 954 / 967 (+13)
Doubles: 302 / 294 (-8)
Triples: 35 / 41 (+6)
Home Runs: 178 / 216 (+38)
Walks: 538 / 626 (+88)
Strikeouts: 1089 / 1203 (+114)
Sac. Hits: 74 / 57 (-17)
Stolen Bases Att.: 133 / 117 (-16)
Now I know that many people could make a compelling case for the Small Ball tactics practiced by the Anaheim Angels or the Los Angeles Dodgers (or the Colorado Rockies), but the Phillies “Big Ball” tactics seem to be successful. The Phillies milked counts and drew walks and waited for the 400-foot home run. The Phillies were third in the N.L. in pitches per plate appearance at 3.82, better than the league average of 3.76. In contrast to the Angels the Phillies don’t try to steal bases (despite having two great base-runners on the team in Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley), they don’t sacrifice bunt, and they don’t hit well in the clutch (.250 BA/RISP, thirteenth in the National League). Sure, playing 50% of their games at Citizens Bank Ballpark helps the Phillies power numbers, but the Phillies offensive model works well on the road as well and is a convincing blueprint for teams for how to win ball games.
When you can hit the ball 400-feet, who really cares about how you hit in the clutch? The links in the chain that the Angels must assemble to manufacture a run or two are irrelevant to the Phillies, who have a collection of guys capable of going yard at any time. This sort of modern power offense renders no lead truly safe and makes the game very, very exciting.
I know people wring their hands a lot about strikeouts, but the Phillies suggest that strikeouts aren’t that big of a deal. Note that three Phillies, Ryan Howard (181), Chase Utley (132), and Pat Burrell (131), ranked in the Top Ten in strikeouts in the N.L. in 2006. I think the real stat people ought to look at, to scrutinize, is pitches per plate appearance. The Phillies most successful hitters in 2006 were guys who milked counts and made pitchers work to get them out, guys like Pat Burrell (4.32), Ryan Howard (4.07 P/PA), Chase Utley (3.96) and David Dellucci (3.96).
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
The upgrade from ’06 to ‘07 is tremendous. The Phillies are going into battle with a fearsome staff. The team’s ace is going to be young Cole Hamels, the aggressive 23-year old pitcher who was 9-8 with a 4.08 ERA in 2006. After a choppy start Hamels improved as the season wore on, developing pin-point control to go with his blazing-quick fastball. Impressively Hamels struck-out 26% of the batters he faced, 145 in 132 & 1/3 innings pitched. While struggling at times with allowing walks in the beginning of the season, Hamels quickly settled in and cut-down on the free passes he issued. Hamels strikeout/walk ratio went from 1.83 prior to the All-Star Break to 4.20 after.
Pre / Post All-Star Break
ERA: 5.44 / 3.39
HR/9: 1.01 / 1.44
BB/9: 4.84 / 2.46
K/9: 8.87 / 10.37
My belief is that Hamels will improve and quickly establish himself as the Phillies ace pitcher in 2007.
Complimenting Hamels is Brett Myers, who will hopefully avoid problems with the criminal justice system in 2007. Myers went 12-7 with a 3.91 ERA in 2006 and is poised to improve on that in 2007. Myers makes a great compliment to Hamels. In fact, Hamels and Myers posted remarkably similar stats in 2006:
Hamels / Myers
HR/9: 1.29 / 1.32
BB/9: 3.26 / 2.86
K/9: 9.86 / 8.59
What is exciting about Myers is watching him continue to refine his skill and become a better and better pitcher. After going 11-11 with a 5.52 ERA in 2004, Myers has settled down, lowered the number of home runs he surrendered, and become a much more effective pitcher. The last two seasons he’s been 25-15 with a 3.81 ERA. Myers gets three strikeouts for every walk, and can get even better.
Freddy Garcia is the Phillies biggest off-season acquisition. What pitcher will show up in 2007? The Garcia who went 14-8 with a 3.87 ERA while helping the White Sox win their first World Series in … well, a loooong time, in 2005? Or the guy who went 17-9, but with a 4.53 ERA. Aside from issuing a few more home runs in 2006 than he did in the White Sox magical season in ’05, Garcia was pretty consistent last year. He numbers did not change much:
2005 / 2006
HR/9: 1.03 / 1.33
BB/9: 2.37 / 2.00
K/9: 5.76 / 5.62
What the Phillies are getting in Freddy Garcia – and they probably won’t have it in 2008 because Garcia will command on the open market more than the Phillies can hope to spend – is a pitcher who doesn’t give up many walks. Over the last several seasons Garcia has cut down on the free passes, from 2.74 in 2004, to 2.37 in 2005, to 2.00 last season. Not allowing home runs and walks is the hallmark of a good pitcher and Garcia has the tools to succeed at Citizens Bank Ballpark.
Adam Eaton, the number four starter, is an open question-mark. A former Phillies first-rounder, Eaton was signed in the off-season from the Texas Rangers. Eaton, who had been dealt by the team to the San Diego Padres back in 1999, has a checkered past history and could either make the Phillies a formidable staff or a strong staff with a hole in it:
To-wit, Eaton went just 7-6 with a 5.12 ERA in 2006. He struck out just 5.95 batters per nine innings and walked 3.32 per nine. The season before Eaton did a little better. Certainly his 11-5 record looked much better (as did his 4.27 ERA), and he struck out more batters (6.99 K/9), but he gave up a large number of walks (3.08 BB/9). The season previous to that, Eaton was 11-14 with a 4.61 ERA but he got strikeouts (6.92 K/9) and he cut-down on the walks (2.35 BB/9). He’s a talented player with great stuff in his arsenal of pitches, but I am not entirely sure that he’ll put things together and be a dominant pitcher. The other issue, of course, is durability. Eaton was injured in 2006, which is why he hurled just 65 innings in 2006. Can he be a durable pitcher for the Phillies? Or will their depth be challenged?
Finally we come to Jamie Moyer, the Phillies 44-year old fifth starting pitcher who was acquired late in the season and went 5-2 with a 4.03 ERA with the Phillies. I am sure one day that someone will write a biography of Moyer’s life or will make a movie or something because if nobody does, it will be a shame. At the age of 44 Moyer is starting over with the Phillies after being a Seattle Mariner for ten seasons. He’s had a remarkable career, particularly of late, getting his first twenty-game win season when he was 38, and getting his second at 40.
Never much of a strikeout artist (5.35 K/9 in his career), Moyer did it by keeping guys from getting walks, keeping them from hitting home runs, and letting his fielders do the work. Moyer’s arrival on the team coincided with a rise in the team DER for the month of September to .707, much better than what the team did in the regular season. The team’s DER behind Moyer was phenomenal – .735 – much better than what it was behind Cole Hamels (.700) or Brett Myers (.689). You have to give credit, at least a little, to Moyer for controlling the situation with his off-speed pitches and other junk. Moyer seems penciled in as the Phillies fifth starter and will get a work-out this season.
After Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Eaton and Garcia, there is Jon Lieber, who is in the walk year of his three-year, $21 mil deal with the Phillies. I’ve been greatly frustrated with Lieber, a pitcher whose signing I applauded in 2004. Alas, Lieber has gone just 26-24 with the Phillies, with a 4.51 ERA. I had expected him to be stingy with allowing walks (and to his credit he was – 1.51 BB/9) and with home runs (which he was not, allowing 1.39 HR/9 … sixty in two seasons). Lieber’s strategy of throwing lots of groundball outs really didn’t work too well when the Phillies defense decided to tank in 2006. Lieber’s struggles with the Phillies aren’t really his fault … well, not entirely, but he simply didn’t develop into the pitcher that me and many other assumed he’d be when the Phillies inked the deal back in ’04.
At the moment Lieber is occupying a netherworld, the sixth starter on a team that needs five. It seems likely that he’ll be relegated to the bullpen as a long-inning relief artist / emergency starter if Adam Eaton or Jamie Moyer go down. I tend to think that the Phillies will deal him … maybe even as I write this … to some pitching-desperate team in exchange for prospects or outfield help for the Phillies. We shall see …
Should the Phillies trade Jon Lieber, expect the Phillies to turn to their farm system and bring up Scott Mathieson, should there be a good for help in the rotation. Matheson is a talented 23-year old right-hander who went 1-4 with a 7.47 ERA with the Phillies in 2006. If Mathieson is pressed into duty thanks to an injury to Eaton or Moyer, I hope he will do better.
II. The Bullpen. The conventional wisdom on the ’06 Phillies was that their bullpen, expected to be a weakness, turned into an unexpected strength. Yes, I would agree that the Phillies did surprise people with having a good – but not great – bullpen last season. However, I also don’t believe that the Phillies ‘pen was that good. Yes, it ranked third in the N.L. in ERA amongst relief pitchers. However, I think that the bullpen was a beneficiary of good defense, or luck … or both. The Phillies ’07 bullpen has a lot of issues, beginning with closer Tom Gordon.
I had been skeptical of Gordon when he signed with the Phillies to replace Billy Wagner given that he was fairly old for a baseball player – he was entering his eighteenth MLB season – and had recently been a set-up man, not a closer, for the Yankees. He hadn’t been used exclusively as a closer since he played with the Cubs in 2001. Could he make the transition to relief artist? I was skeptical, but for half of the season Tom Gordon proved me wrong. Pre-All Star Break Gordon went 3-3 with 21 saves and a 2.17 ERA. He actually made the 2006 All-Star Game as one of the Phillies three representatives, and their sole pitcher. The second half of the season was a major disaster, however, as Gordon went 0-1 with just 13 saves and a 5.32 ERA.
Will Gordon return and duplicate his first-half performance or his second? My money is on his second-half performance and I fear that Gordon’s inability to close games could sabotage the Phillies right out of the gate. Simply put, for the Phillies to do something this season they need to get out of the gate quick and avoid some of the sluggish starts they’ve had in the past. Having Gordon struggle at the outset of the season would be a disaster.
After Gordon the Phillies have Ryan Madson, a player whom Phillies bloggers ("phloggers"?) have long been high on. Madson did two stints in the Phillies rotation as a starter, a job that he most definitely did not excel at, going 8-5, but with a 6.28 ERA. Ryan was moved back to the bullpen where he pitched better, but still probably suffered from the whole starting experience. The differences between Ryan Madson the reliever and Ryan Madson the starter in ’06 were stark:
Relief / Starter
HR/9: 1.02 / 1.49
BB/9: 2.66 / 3.69
K/9: 7.77 / 6.08
K/BB: 2.92 / 1.61
ERA: 4.50 / 6.28
WHIP: 1.48 / 1.78
Ryan will step into the role of being the Phillies set-up man, typically pitching the seventh or eighth innings to set Tom Gordon up to close out Phillies victories. I wonder, however, if Ryan can step into the role of closing games should Tom Gordon struggle.
Another key piece of the Phillies relief corps puzzle is Geoff Geary. Geary went 7-1 with a 2.96 ERA in 2006, setting up several saves for Tom Gordon. Geary is a groundball oriented pitcher who keeps the ball in the park, avoid allowing walks and gets his share of strikeouts. It is hard to not be impressed by what he did in 2006:
HR/9: 0.59
BB/9: 1.97
K/9: 5.91
K/BB: 3.00
WHIP: 1.35
Geary was durable too, appearing in 81 games for the Phillies and hurling 91 & 1/3 innings of work. More than Ryan Madson, perhaps more than Tom Gordon, Geoff Geary was the top Phillies reliever in 2006. Look who had the best Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA amongst the relief artists in 2006:
FIP:
Geary: 3.48
Castro: 3.69
Gordon: 3.86
White: 4.40
Madson: 4.93
Oh, and by the way, Geary had 10 Win Shares to Gordon’s 8 in 2006.
Fabio Castro, acquired by the team midseason from the Texas Rangers, will play a big role for the team in 2007. A young player – just 22 – Castro is a good left arm to balance out Madson and Geary, a pair of righties. He certainly pitched well with the Phillies in ’06, appearing in 16 games with hurling an ERA of 1.54. Despite hurling a number of innings at Citizens Bank, Castro allowed just one home run and struck out 5.01 batters per nine innings and allowed 2.31 walks per nine.
It will be interesting to see what Castro can do in the future. 2006 was his rookie campaign, and he only pitched seventeen and one-third innings of Double-A or Triple-A ball. In 2005 he hurled 79 innings in Winston-Salem and struck out 75 batters, with a 5-5 record and a 2.28 ERA. He’s got skills and it will be interesting to see how he develops them. Fabio Castro might supplant Madson and – perhaps – Geary as the Phillies main set-up man.
Also rejoining the Phillies ‘pen after having been acquired in midseason from the Cincinnati Reds is Rick White, who 3-1 with a 4.34 ERA with the Phillies. White pitched okay with the Phillies, surrendering just 0.72 home runs per nine innings, however he also allowed 3.61 walks per nine innings. I’m not particularly high on White because he surrendered so many walks in 2006, a terrible trait in a pitcher and particularly one who is supposed to close games out.
That is the bullpen. I have confidence in Geary and Madson to set up the save for Gordon, but I have major problems believing that Gordon can get the job done in ‘07. I suppose we’ll see …
III. The Position Players. You have to give the Phillies offense a lot of credit in 2006. They led the N.L. in runs scored with 865, and it was a good thing too, because the Phillies pitchers gave up 812 runs. Their 865 runs were 94 runs better than the N.L. average of 771. Why were the Phillies so successful? To get a real good feel for how the Phillies offense functions take a quick gander at how many types of hits they had vs. the league averages:
National League / Phillies (Phillies +/-)
Singles: 954 / 967 (+13)
Doubles: 302 / 294 (-8)
Triples: 35 / 41 (+6)
Home Runs: 178 / 216 (+38)
Walks: 538 / 626 (+88)
Strikeouts: 1089 / 1203 (+114)
Sac. Hits: 74 / 57 (-17)
Stolen Bases Att.: 133 / 117 (-16)
Now I know that many people could make a compelling case for the Small Ball tactics practiced by the Anaheim Angels or the Los Angeles Dodgers (or the Colorado Rockies), but the Phillies “Big Ball” tactics seem to be successful. The Phillies milked counts and drew walks and waited for the 400-foot home run. The Phillies were third in the N.L. in pitches per plate appearance at 3.82, better than the league average of 3.76. In contrast to the Angels the Phillies don’t try to steal bases (despite having two great base-runners on the team in Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley), they don’t sacrifice bunt, and they don’t hit well in the clutch (.250 BA/RISP, thirteenth in the National League). Sure, playing 50% of their games at Citizens Bank Ballpark helps the Phillies power numbers, but the Phillies offensive model works well on the road as well and is a convincing blueprint for teams for how to win ball games.
When you can hit the ball 400-feet, who really cares about how you hit in the clutch? The links in the chain that the Angels must assemble to manufacture a run or two are irrelevant to the Phillies, who have a collection of guys capable of going yard at any time. This sort of modern power offense renders no lead truly safe and makes the game very, very exciting.
I know people wring their hands a lot about strikeouts, but the Phillies suggest that strikeouts aren’t that big of a deal. Note that three Phillies, Ryan Howard (181), Chase Utley (132), and Pat Burrell (131), ranked in the Top Ten in strikeouts in the N.L. in 2006. I think the real stat people ought to look at, to scrutinize, is pitches per plate appearance. The Phillies most successful hitters in 2006 were guys who milked counts and made pitchers work to get them out, guys like Pat Burrell (4.32), Ryan Howard (4.07 P/PA), Chase Utley (3.96) and David Dellucci (3.96).
Now, before I go any further, here are some offensive stats in need of definition:
Gross Productive Average (GPA): (1.8 * .OBP + .SLG) / 4 = .GPA. Invented by The Hardball Times Aaron Gleeman, GPA measures a players production by weighing his ability to get on base and hit with power. This is my preferred all-around stat.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Walks per plate appearance (BB/PA): BB / PA = .BB/PA Avg
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). If you use ESPN’s version be advised that it is pitifully is out-of-date, however. James adjusted RC after the 2004 season ended.
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Walks per plate appearance (BB/PA): BB / PA = .BB/PA Avg
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). If you use ESPN’s version be advised that it is pitifully is out-of-date, however. James adjusted RC after the 2004 season ended.
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
Naturally, any discussion of the Phillies offense begins with Ryan Howard, who almost single-handedly carried the Phillies to the playoffs in 2006, shattering the club record for home runs with 58 on his way to also hitting 149 RBIs, scoring 104 runs, drawing 108 walks and taking 383 total bases. Howard’s 58 Home Runs and 149 RBIs led the N.L.
I suppose that you’d have to describe Ryan Howard’s rise to the top in the majors as “meteoric”. After playing a little in 2004, he jumped into the role of the Phillies first baseman following the injuries Jim Thome suffered in 2005. In just 88 games Howard had 22 Home Runs and 63 RBIs and was the 2005 N.L. Rookie of the Year.
This past season the Phillies cleared the way for Howard to become their first baseman by dealing Jim Thome to the White Sox in the off-season and then they made him into the team superstar by dealing Bobby Abreu to the Yankees. Howard responded by going on a tear, hitting 14 home runs and 41 RBIs in August alone. Teams wisely elected to pitch around Howard, who saw his walks spike from 22 in August to 35 in September. Ryan Howard’s walks went from 31 before the All-Star Break to 77 after.
Howard is now one of the two best pure hitters in the N.L., the other being Albert Pujols, an individual destined to become Howard’s arch-nemesis. They are different hitters in that Pujols is a little faster on the bases and isn’t as dependant on the home run as Howard – Pujols had 49 home runs in 83 extra-base hits, Howard had 58 home runs in his 84 extra-base hits – but they are more alike than not. Obviously Pujols, the runner-up for the MVP last season, is bitter about losing to Howard, so this rivalry is off to a hot start.
I expect Howard to respond by putting up great numbers once more in 2007. After his Rookie of the Year performance in '05, I had feared a sophomore slump and he ended up posting one of the greatest seasons in baseball history, shattering the Phillies former single-season mark for home runs set by Mike Schmidt, and winning yet another award. No slump here. The only question is whether teams will actually pitch to Ryan Howard in 2007. If Pat Burrell and Aaron Rowand make teams regret that decision by hitting home runs and getting RBIs, then Ryan Howard will get lots of opportunities, but I expect Howard to see his home run totals drop off to 40 or so and to see him draw 150-170 walks in 2007. Howard will post Barry Bonds-like .500 - .550 OBP numbers in 2007 because teams won’t want Howard to sting them for a big 450-foot home run.
After Ryan Howard we turn our attention to J.Roll … 2006 was an exceptional year for Jimmy Rollins. His assault on Joe DiMaggio's consecutive game hitting streak came to an end at the beginning of the season and he suffered through his usual slump at the start of the season, but he became an exceptional player in the second-half of the season. His 25 home runs were a personal best, eleven better than his previous career-high of 14 in 2001 and 2004. His 45 doubles were also a career-high. Jimmy Rollins went from being a merely a fast player with some pop to being probably the best lead-off hitter in the N.L., with a unique combination of speed and power at the plate. The big difference in J.Roll’s career is the fact that he worked with Tony Gwynn to improve his batting eye and decrease the number of strikeouts he had. The work with Gwynn was a major success, as J.Roll’s strikeout rate dipped from 108, 103 and 113 to 73, 71 and 80 the last three seasons. Check out the differences. First look at J.Roll’s three seasons with 100+ strikeouts:
GPA / ISO / Runs Created:
2001: .250 / .145 / 96
2002: .233 / .135 / 72
2003: .241 / .124 / 78
Then see what he’s been able to do since Gwynn worked with him:
GPA / ISO / Runs Created:
2004: .270 / .166 / 108
2005: .260 / .141 / 100
2006: .270 / .201 / 114
Tremendous. J.Roll went from 20, 17 & 19 Win Shares to 24, 21 & 25.
Jimmy Rollins has speed to burn: he led the N.L. in steals once and in triples three times. With Davey Lopes manning first base, expect the Phillies to use Rollins more aggressively on the base paths. The problem is that the Phillies have talked about using J.Roll as the team’s fifth hitter behind Ryan Howard to provide Howard some protection in the lineup. I think that would be a major mistake. J.Roll is a unique weapon that the Phillies have: a dangerous lead-off hitter would can steal a base or take you deep. Leave J.Roll at lead-off.
Next is Shane Victorino. Shane is probably the Phillies best defensive outfielder (more on that later), but only a so-so hitter. There are a lot of things I don’t like about the way that Victorino hits. To start, he drew just 24 walks in 462 plate appearances, or .052 BB/PA. That’s pretty lousy. When he did put the ball into play, he didn’t do much with it either, hitting just six home runs. Check out some of his stats … GPA: .259; ISO: .127; Runs Created: 58 / RC27: 5.15. Victorino’s .414 slugging percentage was the worst of any Phillie 2006 except for light-hitting third basemen David Bell and Abraham Nunez.
The only plus Victorino has going for him at the plate is that he is fast, which is why the team intends to bat him first or second in 2007. Victorino didn’t try many steals (seven attempts, four successful), but he hit eight triples, and was +14 in base-running (see, The 2007 Bill James Handbook), meaning that he took 14 extra bases over the average base runner.
The Phillies believe that Victorino’s speed and defensive skills out-weigh his slugging hitting. I tend to agree. Victorino is a great player and might improve greatly at the plate. 2006 was, after all, his first real year in the majors. He had played in just a handful of games prior to ’06. Additionally, I’d note that 41 of Victorino’s appearances were as a pinch-hitter, which is a tough job to do, coming into a game cold. I am willing to assume that Victorino is going to be a much, much better player in 2007.
After Victorino comes Chase Utley, probably the Phillies best overall player. Yes, Ryan Howard is the Phillies best hitter, but Chase Utley is every bit as valuable as he is, but Chase plays a difficult defensive position and plays it well, and Chase has speed on the base-paths, something Ryan Howard does not.
How great was Chase Utley’s 2006 season? Well, he hit 32 home runs, 40 doubles, 102 RBIs, scored 131 runs (best in the N.L.), and stole 15 bases in 19 attempts. Utley’s GPA was a robust .302 and his Isolated Power was .218. He had 122 Runs Created, or 7.03 per 27 Outs. Not impressed? Well, Chase also was the second-best base-runner in the majors in 2006, according to Bill James, rating a +27 on the bases.
This is a player who did everything well. Yes, the Phillies would struggle with Ryan Howard down, but Chase Utley is the real key player for the Phillies. Without him the Phillies would lose their second most-lethal offensive threat, their best base-runner, and a key defensive player. The Phillies are very, very lucky to have Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley, two talented middle infielders who field well, and have speed and power at the plate.
Right behind Chase Utley and Ryan Howard is Pat Burrell, the Phillies former superstar and MVP-of-the-future. People are very critical of Pat Burrell and the team seemed to give up hope in him at points in the ’06 campaign. To be sure, Pat Burrell has had a rocky history with the Phillies, but a lot of the criticism of him is utterly unwarranted. He’s a talented player and a deadly bat to have in the lineup, but the Phillies treat him as if he’s a problem case, benching him for no reason and trying like mad to trade him to the San Francisco Giants and/or Baltimore Orioles.
Let’s start at the beginning. Pat Burrell played in 144 games for the Phillies in 2006, hitting 29 home runs and 95 RBIs. This was coming off a year in which he quietly hit 32 home runs and had 117 RBIs, which nearly led the league. And yet the Phillies benched him several times in favor of David Dellucci and Jeff Conine, believing they would help protect Ryan Howard in the lineup better.
The idea that Burrell slumped in 2006 is ludicrous. He posted nearly as many home runs (29) as in 2006 (32), and nearly as many doubles (24) as he had in ’06 (29). And he did it in 100 fewer At-Bats in 2006 compared with 2005. The Phillies shot themselves in the foot in September by sitting Burrell in favor of Conine and Dellucci (especially with respect to Conine), because Burrell is one of the best hitters on the team after Ryan Howard. Only Ryan Howard had a higher isolated power at the plate. Nobody on the team worked counts as aggressively as Pat Burrell did. His 4.32 pitches per plate appearance led the Phillies and the National League. This is a player that made pitchers fight aggressively for every out and stung them when they made a mistake. So why the hostility?
There is a progression to Burrell’s career that is sad to see: the path from golden boy whose promise was boundless (2000-2002), to the dreadful slump (2003), then his recovery (2004) and return to grace (2005), followed by the uncertainty of whether or not the Phillies still believe in him. I think these numbers illustrate that:
Win Shares / ISO
2000: 12 / .203
2001: 17 / .211
2002: 25 / .262
2003: 9 / .195
2004: 14 / .198
2005: 24 / .223
2006: 15 / .244
Career: 116 / .221
Burrell is a great player and I think that the numbers back me up on this. If Burrell can continue to play and contribute there is no reason why he can’t continue to be a 30 Home Run / 100+ RBI guy well into the future. Certainly, I think it would be a big, big mistake to replace him.
Following Burrell is probably going to be Aaron Rowand, the Phillies centerfielder, in the sixth slot. Rowand turned out to be a major disappointment to the Phillies in 2006. His fielding wasn’t up to par (see Part V, below), and he turned in a terrible performance at the plate.
How weak a hitter was Rowand? Well, let’s see … He was the least choosey hitter on the team (after Mike Lieberthal), averaging just 3.4 pitches per plate appearance. In 445 trips to the plate he drew just 18 walks! His .040 BB/PA is comically low compared to the rest of the Phillies regulars (players with 200 or more plate appearances in 2006):
BB/PA:
Abreu: .208
Burrell: .172
Howard: .153
Nunez: .111
Dellucci: .093
Bell: .088
Utley: .085
Rollins: .075
Victorino: .052
Coste: .047
Rowand: .040
Lieberthal: .035
Rowand relied on getting on base the old-fashioned way, with getting hits. He didn’t do too great of a job at that either, hitting just .262. His total On-Base Percentage was just .321. The only regulars with worse OBPs were Lieberthal and Nunez.
Did Rowand make up for his inability to draw walks and get on base with a lot of power at the plate? Not really. He hit just 12 home runs and 24 doubles in 2006. His Isolated Power at the plate was .163, not a terrible number (hey, Abraham Nunez’s was .062), but not great either. I think that the Phillies assumed that Rowand was going to be a bigger bat than he really is. In 2004 Rowand hit .310 with 24 home runs and 38 doubles for the White Sox, on his way to scoring 94 runs for the team. That season, in which his ISO was .234, was largely a fluke. Rowand’s ISO dropped to .137 in 2005, a season where he hit just 13 home runs and 30 doubles despite playing 17 more games than in 2004.
Rowand isn’t a particularly fast player either, stealing just ten bases in fourteen tries and hitting only three triples. Perhaps his lack of stolen bases is an outgrowth of his inability to draw walks. You can’t steal first base after all. In ’04 & ’05 he stole 33 bases in 43 tries, seasons where he had many, many more hits and actually got to spend some time on the base-paths. To his credit, Rowand is a very good base-runner, posting a +13 in 2006, despite not really having much of an opportunity to be on base.
After Rowand is the Phillies new third baseman, Wes Helms. Mike Schmidt and Scott Rolen, Wes Helms is not. A quiet player who turned in some solid years in Atlanta, Milwaukee and Florida, Helms turned in … well, quietly … a solid year with the Marlins in 2006, hitting ten home runs and forty-seven RBIs in just 278 plate appearances. Helms appeared in 140 games, but was a pinch-hitter in 52 and a pinch-runner in 3 more. His playing time was pretty limited, but he made the most of it when he had it. Helms Isolated Power was .246, slightly better than Burrell’s .244. Helms Runs Created per 27 Outs was much better than Burrell’s too: 7.06 to 6.18
Extrapolated to a full season, Helms might have hit 25 home runs and 30 or so doubles in 2006. If the Phillies can get that – 25 home runs, 30 doubles, 80-90 Runs Created – from Helms, they’ll get a bargain, a big-time hitter in the seventh hole, extending the reach of the Phillies murderers row deep into the bottom of the lineup and preventing opposing pitchers from having a respite from the onslaught of hitters patiently working the count and hitting home runs. If Helms can do the 25 / 30 / 80-90 thing, the Phillies will score 900+ runs in 2007.
Finally, hitting eighth – just above the pitchers – is Phillies catcher Rod Barajas. I posted in the past that I am not really a fan of the Phillies signing Barajas when they have two perfectly talented catchers sitting on the bench who could do the job as good – or better – for far less cash. But I am not Pat Gillick. He sees value in Barajas and who am I to argue?
Barajas is a 31-year old catcher entering his eighth MLB season. He hit .256 with the Texas Rangers in 2006, along with 11 home runs and 41 RBIs. For whatever reason, Barajas showed an absolute phobia of drawing a walk in ’06. His BB/PA was an Aaron Rowand-like .046. The result was a stunningly low .298 OBP. Power, not average, is where Barajas makes his living at the plate. In addition to the 11 home runs, he also hit 20 doubles in 2006. Here are Barajas power numbers from his three seasons as a Texas Ranger:
ISO
2004: .204
2005: .212
2006: .154
I am assuming that those numbers are partly a product of playing in a hitter environment like the Ballpark at Arlington. His ISO for his three previous seasons as an Arizona Diamondback were much less impressive:
2001: .114
2002: .123
2003: .109
The other thing that bothers me from looking at his power numbers was that he had dropped nearly sixty points from ’05 to ’06. Does this portend a dramatic decline in Barajas skills?
I suppose that it is a good thing to have your catcher be a slugger rather than a singles-hitting OBP machine like the A’s Jason Kendall when you have him hitting in the 8-slot, just ahead of the pitcher. Imagine the scenario: Aaron Rowand strikes out to start the inning, Wes Helms singles to center, bringing up the catcher. In the old days, it would have been Sal Fasano striding to the plate. Fasano would have grounded into a 6-4-3 double play to end the inning and put the pitcher as the lead-off hitter in the next inning. Instead, the Phillies will have Barajas, who might hit a home run or a double and possibly score Helms. According to the data from The 2007 Hardball Times Baseball Annual, just 31% of the balls Barajas put into play were grounders, well off of the 44% the average player hit. Barajas put 51% of the balls put into play into the outfield as fly-balls.
Barajas is designed to avoid the 6-4-3 double play and allow the Phillies to have the pitcher bat and minimize the damage he does to the team. Provided that he matches his totals from 2004 & 2005 (15 home runs, 26 doubles, 58 RBI & 21 home runs, 24 doubles, 60 RBI), Barajas is going to be a solid addition to the Phillies lineup.
I suppose that you’d have to describe Ryan Howard’s rise to the top in the majors as “meteoric”. After playing a little in 2004, he jumped into the role of the Phillies first baseman following the injuries Jim Thome suffered in 2005. In just 88 games Howard had 22 Home Runs and 63 RBIs and was the 2005 N.L. Rookie of the Year.
This past season the Phillies cleared the way for Howard to become their first baseman by dealing Jim Thome to the White Sox in the off-season and then they made him into the team superstar by dealing Bobby Abreu to the Yankees. Howard responded by going on a tear, hitting 14 home runs and 41 RBIs in August alone. Teams wisely elected to pitch around Howard, who saw his walks spike from 22 in August to 35 in September. Ryan Howard’s walks went from 31 before the All-Star Break to 77 after.
Howard is now one of the two best pure hitters in the N.L., the other being Albert Pujols, an individual destined to become Howard’s arch-nemesis. They are different hitters in that Pujols is a little faster on the bases and isn’t as dependant on the home run as Howard – Pujols had 49 home runs in 83 extra-base hits, Howard had 58 home runs in his 84 extra-base hits – but they are more alike than not. Obviously Pujols, the runner-up for the MVP last season, is bitter about losing to Howard, so this rivalry is off to a hot start.
I expect Howard to respond by putting up great numbers once more in 2007. After his Rookie of the Year performance in '05, I had feared a sophomore slump and he ended up posting one of the greatest seasons in baseball history, shattering the Phillies former single-season mark for home runs set by Mike Schmidt, and winning yet another award. No slump here. The only question is whether teams will actually pitch to Ryan Howard in 2007. If Pat Burrell and Aaron Rowand make teams regret that decision by hitting home runs and getting RBIs, then Ryan Howard will get lots of opportunities, but I expect Howard to see his home run totals drop off to 40 or so and to see him draw 150-170 walks in 2007. Howard will post Barry Bonds-like .500 - .550 OBP numbers in 2007 because teams won’t want Howard to sting them for a big 450-foot home run.
After Ryan Howard we turn our attention to J.Roll … 2006 was an exceptional year for Jimmy Rollins. His assault on Joe DiMaggio's consecutive game hitting streak came to an end at the beginning of the season and he suffered through his usual slump at the start of the season, but he became an exceptional player in the second-half of the season. His 25 home runs were a personal best, eleven better than his previous career-high of 14 in 2001 and 2004. His 45 doubles were also a career-high. Jimmy Rollins went from being a merely a fast player with some pop to being probably the best lead-off hitter in the N.L., with a unique combination of speed and power at the plate. The big difference in J.Roll’s career is the fact that he worked with Tony Gwynn to improve his batting eye and decrease the number of strikeouts he had. The work with Gwynn was a major success, as J.Roll’s strikeout rate dipped from 108, 103 and 113 to 73, 71 and 80 the last three seasons. Check out the differences. First look at J.Roll’s three seasons with 100+ strikeouts:
GPA / ISO / Runs Created:
2001: .250 / .145 / 96
2002: .233 / .135 / 72
2003: .241 / .124 / 78
Then see what he’s been able to do since Gwynn worked with him:
GPA / ISO / Runs Created:
2004: .270 / .166 / 108
2005: .260 / .141 / 100
2006: .270 / .201 / 114
Tremendous. J.Roll went from 20, 17 & 19 Win Shares to 24, 21 & 25.
Jimmy Rollins has speed to burn: he led the N.L. in steals once and in triples three times. With Davey Lopes manning first base, expect the Phillies to use Rollins more aggressively on the base paths. The problem is that the Phillies have talked about using J.Roll as the team’s fifth hitter behind Ryan Howard to provide Howard some protection in the lineup. I think that would be a major mistake. J.Roll is a unique weapon that the Phillies have: a dangerous lead-off hitter would can steal a base or take you deep. Leave J.Roll at lead-off.
Next is Shane Victorino. Shane is probably the Phillies best defensive outfielder (more on that later), but only a so-so hitter. There are a lot of things I don’t like about the way that Victorino hits. To start, he drew just 24 walks in 462 plate appearances, or .052 BB/PA. That’s pretty lousy. When he did put the ball into play, he didn’t do much with it either, hitting just six home runs. Check out some of his stats … GPA: .259; ISO: .127; Runs Created: 58 / RC27: 5.15. Victorino’s .414 slugging percentage was the worst of any Phillie 2006 except for light-hitting third basemen David Bell and Abraham Nunez.
The only plus Victorino has going for him at the plate is that he is fast, which is why the team intends to bat him first or second in 2007. Victorino didn’t try many steals (seven attempts, four successful), but he hit eight triples, and was +14 in base-running (see, The 2007 Bill James Handbook), meaning that he took 14 extra bases over the average base runner.
The Phillies believe that Victorino’s speed and defensive skills out-weigh his slugging hitting. I tend to agree. Victorino is a great player and might improve greatly at the plate. 2006 was, after all, his first real year in the majors. He had played in just a handful of games prior to ’06. Additionally, I’d note that 41 of Victorino’s appearances were as a pinch-hitter, which is a tough job to do, coming into a game cold. I am willing to assume that Victorino is going to be a much, much better player in 2007.
After Victorino comes Chase Utley, probably the Phillies best overall player. Yes, Ryan Howard is the Phillies best hitter, but Chase Utley is every bit as valuable as he is, but Chase plays a difficult defensive position and plays it well, and Chase has speed on the base-paths, something Ryan Howard does not.
How great was Chase Utley’s 2006 season? Well, he hit 32 home runs, 40 doubles, 102 RBIs, scored 131 runs (best in the N.L.), and stole 15 bases in 19 attempts. Utley’s GPA was a robust .302 and his Isolated Power was .218. He had 122 Runs Created, or 7.03 per 27 Outs. Not impressed? Well, Chase also was the second-best base-runner in the majors in 2006, according to Bill James, rating a +27 on the bases.
This is a player who did everything well. Yes, the Phillies would struggle with Ryan Howard down, but Chase Utley is the real key player for the Phillies. Without him the Phillies would lose their second most-lethal offensive threat, their best base-runner, and a key defensive player. The Phillies are very, very lucky to have Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley, two talented middle infielders who field well, and have speed and power at the plate.
Right behind Chase Utley and Ryan Howard is Pat Burrell, the Phillies former superstar and MVP-of-the-future. People are very critical of Pat Burrell and the team seemed to give up hope in him at points in the ’06 campaign. To be sure, Pat Burrell has had a rocky history with the Phillies, but a lot of the criticism of him is utterly unwarranted. He’s a talented player and a deadly bat to have in the lineup, but the Phillies treat him as if he’s a problem case, benching him for no reason and trying like mad to trade him to the San Francisco Giants and/or Baltimore Orioles.
Let’s start at the beginning. Pat Burrell played in 144 games for the Phillies in 2006, hitting 29 home runs and 95 RBIs. This was coming off a year in which he quietly hit 32 home runs and had 117 RBIs, which nearly led the league. And yet the Phillies benched him several times in favor of David Dellucci and Jeff Conine, believing they would help protect Ryan Howard in the lineup better.
The idea that Burrell slumped in 2006 is ludicrous. He posted nearly as many home runs (29) as in 2006 (32), and nearly as many doubles (24) as he had in ’06 (29). And he did it in 100 fewer At-Bats in 2006 compared with 2005. The Phillies shot themselves in the foot in September by sitting Burrell in favor of Conine and Dellucci (especially with respect to Conine), because Burrell is one of the best hitters on the team after Ryan Howard. Only Ryan Howard had a higher isolated power at the plate. Nobody on the team worked counts as aggressively as Pat Burrell did. His 4.32 pitches per plate appearance led the Phillies and the National League. This is a player that made pitchers fight aggressively for every out and stung them when they made a mistake. So why the hostility?
There is a progression to Burrell’s career that is sad to see: the path from golden boy whose promise was boundless (2000-2002), to the dreadful slump (2003), then his recovery (2004) and return to grace (2005), followed by the uncertainty of whether or not the Phillies still believe in him. I think these numbers illustrate that:
Win Shares / ISO
2000: 12 / .203
2001: 17 / .211
2002: 25 / .262
2003: 9 / .195
2004: 14 / .198
2005: 24 / .223
2006: 15 / .244
Career: 116 / .221
Burrell is a great player and I think that the numbers back me up on this. If Burrell can continue to play and contribute there is no reason why he can’t continue to be a 30 Home Run / 100+ RBI guy well into the future. Certainly, I think it would be a big, big mistake to replace him.
Following Burrell is probably going to be Aaron Rowand, the Phillies centerfielder, in the sixth slot. Rowand turned out to be a major disappointment to the Phillies in 2006. His fielding wasn’t up to par (see Part V, below), and he turned in a terrible performance at the plate.
How weak a hitter was Rowand? Well, let’s see … He was the least choosey hitter on the team (after Mike Lieberthal), averaging just 3.4 pitches per plate appearance. In 445 trips to the plate he drew just 18 walks! His .040 BB/PA is comically low compared to the rest of the Phillies regulars (players with 200 or more plate appearances in 2006):
BB/PA:
Abreu: .208
Burrell: .172
Howard: .153
Nunez: .111
Dellucci: .093
Bell: .088
Utley: .085
Rollins: .075
Victorino: .052
Coste: .047
Rowand: .040
Lieberthal: .035
Rowand relied on getting on base the old-fashioned way, with getting hits. He didn’t do too great of a job at that either, hitting just .262. His total On-Base Percentage was just .321. The only regulars with worse OBPs were Lieberthal and Nunez.
Did Rowand make up for his inability to draw walks and get on base with a lot of power at the plate? Not really. He hit just 12 home runs and 24 doubles in 2006. His Isolated Power at the plate was .163, not a terrible number (hey, Abraham Nunez’s was .062), but not great either. I think that the Phillies assumed that Rowand was going to be a bigger bat than he really is. In 2004 Rowand hit .310 with 24 home runs and 38 doubles for the White Sox, on his way to scoring 94 runs for the team. That season, in which his ISO was .234, was largely a fluke. Rowand’s ISO dropped to .137 in 2005, a season where he hit just 13 home runs and 30 doubles despite playing 17 more games than in 2004.
Rowand isn’t a particularly fast player either, stealing just ten bases in fourteen tries and hitting only three triples. Perhaps his lack of stolen bases is an outgrowth of his inability to draw walks. You can’t steal first base after all. In ’04 & ’05 he stole 33 bases in 43 tries, seasons where he had many, many more hits and actually got to spend some time on the base-paths. To his credit, Rowand is a very good base-runner, posting a +13 in 2006, despite not really having much of an opportunity to be on base.
After Rowand is the Phillies new third baseman, Wes Helms. Mike Schmidt and Scott Rolen, Wes Helms is not. A quiet player who turned in some solid years in Atlanta, Milwaukee and Florida, Helms turned in … well, quietly … a solid year with the Marlins in 2006, hitting ten home runs and forty-seven RBIs in just 278 plate appearances. Helms appeared in 140 games, but was a pinch-hitter in 52 and a pinch-runner in 3 more. His playing time was pretty limited, but he made the most of it when he had it. Helms Isolated Power was .246, slightly better than Burrell’s .244. Helms Runs Created per 27 Outs was much better than Burrell’s too: 7.06 to 6.18
Extrapolated to a full season, Helms might have hit 25 home runs and 30 or so doubles in 2006. If the Phillies can get that – 25 home runs, 30 doubles, 80-90 Runs Created – from Helms, they’ll get a bargain, a big-time hitter in the seventh hole, extending the reach of the Phillies murderers row deep into the bottom of the lineup and preventing opposing pitchers from having a respite from the onslaught of hitters patiently working the count and hitting home runs. If Helms can do the 25 / 30 / 80-90 thing, the Phillies will score 900+ runs in 2007.
Finally, hitting eighth – just above the pitchers – is Phillies catcher Rod Barajas. I posted in the past that I am not really a fan of the Phillies signing Barajas when they have two perfectly talented catchers sitting on the bench who could do the job as good – or better – for far less cash. But I am not Pat Gillick. He sees value in Barajas and who am I to argue?
Barajas is a 31-year old catcher entering his eighth MLB season. He hit .256 with the Texas Rangers in 2006, along with 11 home runs and 41 RBIs. For whatever reason, Barajas showed an absolute phobia of drawing a walk in ’06. His BB/PA was an Aaron Rowand-like .046. The result was a stunningly low .298 OBP. Power, not average, is where Barajas makes his living at the plate. In addition to the 11 home runs, he also hit 20 doubles in 2006. Here are Barajas power numbers from his three seasons as a Texas Ranger:
ISO
2004: .204
2005: .212
2006: .154
I am assuming that those numbers are partly a product of playing in a hitter environment like the Ballpark at Arlington. His ISO for his three previous seasons as an Arizona Diamondback were much less impressive:
2001: .114
2002: .123
2003: .109
The other thing that bothers me from looking at his power numbers was that he had dropped nearly sixty points from ’05 to ’06. Does this portend a dramatic decline in Barajas skills?
I suppose that it is a good thing to have your catcher be a slugger rather than a singles-hitting OBP machine like the A’s Jason Kendall when you have him hitting in the 8-slot, just ahead of the pitcher. Imagine the scenario: Aaron Rowand strikes out to start the inning, Wes Helms singles to center, bringing up the catcher. In the old days, it would have been Sal Fasano striding to the plate. Fasano would have grounded into a 6-4-3 double play to end the inning and put the pitcher as the lead-off hitter in the next inning. Instead, the Phillies will have Barajas, who might hit a home run or a double and possibly score Helms. According to the data from The 2007 Hardball Times Baseball Annual, just 31% of the balls Barajas put into play were grounders, well off of the 44% the average player hit. Barajas put 51% of the balls put into play into the outfield as fly-balls.
Barajas is designed to avoid the 6-4-3 double play and allow the Phillies to have the pitcher bat and minimize the damage he does to the team. Provided that he matches his totals from 2004 & 2005 (15 home runs, 26 doubles, 58 RBI & 21 home runs, 24 doubles, 60 RBI), Barajas is going to be a solid addition to the Phillies lineup.
Expect the Phillies to approach their 865 runs scored in 2006 and possibly exceed it in 2007. 900 runs? A possibility.
IV. The Bench. In recent history the Phillies have had a pretty good bench. Placido Polanco was backed up by Chase Utley at second base in 2003 and 2004. Jason Michaels was the Phillies fourth outfielder for a while and he is now a very good starter for the Indians. Ryan Howard backed up Jim Thome for the first half of 2005. Just this past year the Phillies surprised me and showed a lot of bench strength, sending in Chris Coste, Carlos Ruiz, David Dellucci and others to deliver timely hits. Their bench was very, very strong. Dellucci spelled Pat Burrell in left field often and hit 13 home runs in just 301 plate appearances. Ruiz and Coste combined to hit ten home runs and have 46 Runs Created to go with Dellucci’s 43. This was a hidden strength for the 2006 Phillies.
This season will most likely see some of those characters back: Ruiz is slated to be the backup catcher and Coste, if he makes the team (and he should), will be the designated pinch hitter and third-string catcher. And there are some new faces.
First and foremost is Jayson Werth. The talented outfielder missed the entire 2006 campaign with injuries and played sparingly with the Dodgers before that. Werth is versatile, having played 64 games in left field, 43 in right and 30 in center field in 2005. He seems fated to follow in the role that Jason Michaels occupied for the Phillies, that of the multi-position fourth outfielder. Werth is capable of playing all three positions, something the Phillies need if Pat Burrell or Aaron Rowand go down with injuries in 2007, a virtually certainty.
As a hitter Werth is solid, although I am unsure how the layoff in 2006 will affect his game. It is difficult to get a read on Werth’s hitting: his OBP was a constant .338 in 2004 and 2005, but his slugging percentage went from .486 to .374. He hit 16 home runs in 2004 and just 7 in 2005. I doubt this was a product of a decline in his game and rather a product of the Dodgers moving the fences back at Dodgers Stadium. (He hit 11 home runs at home in 2004 and just one in 2005.) I think he’ll thrive and show a lot of power at Citizens when he gets to play, and I predict that Werth will get to make appearances in maybe as many as 50% of the Phillies games.
The catching situation will be interesting. The Phillies primary catcher is going to be Barajas, the former Texas Ranger, with Carlos Ruiz backing up him and Chris Coste available to step in as a super-utility man, capable of playing the infield and at catcher. Essentially the Phillies are going to have three catchers.
Coste, a long-time minor leaguer who didn’t make his major league debut until he was 33-years old, in particular surprised people in 2006, hitting seven home runs with 32 RBIs. Coste’s stats are a little weaker when you consider how lucky he was: despite drawing just ten walks in his 213 plate appearances, he had an OBP of .376, which means that a lot of his batted balls landed for hits when they probably wouldn’t have. Consider that 29% of Coste’s batted balls were Line-Drives, and that is significant because three-quarters of Line-Drives usually fall in for hits. The typical major-leaguer gets about 20% of his hits as Line-Drives. I wouldn’t expect the same level of production from Coste in 2007 that the Phillies got in ’06. He’s a solid player and makes a great bat off the bench, but he needs to work on drawing more walks, or he won’t enjoy the same success he had in 2006.
Ruiz has a lot of Phillies fans intrigued. He played sparingly in ’06 but hit well (three home runs and ten RBIs in just 78 plate appearances). Ruiz played very well at Triple-A Scranton before getting the call to Philadelphia, hitting 16 home runs with 69 RBI in 100 games with the Red Barons. He hit for power (.198 ISO), and for average (.301 GPA). I think he’ll make a great #2 option for the Phillies at catcher and will actually be a more reliable hitter than Coste.
After Ruiz, Coste and Werth is going to be Chris Roberson or Michael Bourn. The Phillies will probably play Roberson as their fifth outfielder instead of Bourn, though Bourn is very talented and appears to be the Phillies centerfielder of the future. Roberson is a talented player who appeared in 57 games with the Phillies, fifteen as a pinch-hitter and sixteen as a pinch-runner. He’s got speed – stealing all three of the bases he tried to take as a Phillie and taking another 25 of 34 as a member of the Phillies Scranton Triple-A affiliate – but he has little power and had an OBP of just .214 with the Phillies. If the Phillies want, they might go instead with Bourn (see my recent post on the Bourn v. Roberson issue), a blazing fast player who successfully stole forty-five of the fifty steals he attempted in the minors in 2006. Bourn might be a riskier move, but a better one in the long-term.
Finally, rounding out the Phillies bench, are Danny Sandoval and Abraham Nunez. Nunez isn’t much of a hitter: his OBP was a terrible .303 and his slugging percentage was a beyond-terrible .273 in 2006. There seems little doubt that the Phillies want to expose Nunez to as few opportunities to gum-up their offense as they can, so Helms will be the starter at third base. Don’t expect Nunez to play much and even when he does, don’t expect him to contribute anything at all. Nunez career GPA is just .220.
I am frankly surprised that Danny Sandoval has finally battled his way to the majors and is poised to be the Phillies backup middle infielder. At the age of 28, he’s played in a handful of major league games and has been in the minors since 1998. He’s not a great power hitter (single-season high of eight home runs). Sandoval also never really became a speedster on the base-paths. In 2005 he was caught in half of the twenty-two steals he attempted in Scranton, a factor that probably explains why he attempted just two steals in 2006 as a Red Baron. Tellingly, the Phillies never used him as a pinch-runner in 2006. I wouldn’t expect to see Danny Sandoval play much at all in 2007.
That’s the Phillies bench, a mixed bag of solid hitters with pop like Ruiz, Coste and Werth, speedsters like Bourn and Roberson, and light-hitting defensive utility infielders like Nunez and Sandoval. It is probably the equal of last year’s bench, which contributed mightily to the Phillies success. I expect them to do the same again.
V. Fielding. I wasn’t surprised at all when John Dewan, author of The Fielding Bible, published his 2006 team Plus / Minus stats in The 2007 Hardball Times Baseball Annual and I saw that the Phillies finished thirteenth in the National League and twenty-second overall in team Plus / Minus. I had known, throughout the season, that the Phillies were a bad fielding team and wouldn’t rank well. That was probably news to the average fan who saw things like Aaron Rowand running into a wall to make a catch and assumed that the Phillies were a defensive powerhouse thanks to Aaron Rowand’s addition to the team. To the contrary, the Phillies went from being the best Plus / Minus team in all of baseball in 2005 to being one of the worst. After going +108 in 2005 – which led the second-best N.L. team, the Houston Astros, by a whopping 58 plays – the Phillies dropped to -33 in 2006. That’s a swing of 141 plays. Basically, the team was a play worse in every game they played from 2006.
IV. The Bench. In recent history the Phillies have had a pretty good bench. Placido Polanco was backed up by Chase Utley at second base in 2003 and 2004. Jason Michaels was the Phillies fourth outfielder for a while and he is now a very good starter for the Indians. Ryan Howard backed up Jim Thome for the first half of 2005. Just this past year the Phillies surprised me and showed a lot of bench strength, sending in Chris Coste, Carlos Ruiz, David Dellucci and others to deliver timely hits. Their bench was very, very strong. Dellucci spelled Pat Burrell in left field often and hit 13 home runs in just 301 plate appearances. Ruiz and Coste combined to hit ten home runs and have 46 Runs Created to go with Dellucci’s 43. This was a hidden strength for the 2006 Phillies.
This season will most likely see some of those characters back: Ruiz is slated to be the backup catcher and Coste, if he makes the team (and he should), will be the designated pinch hitter and third-string catcher. And there are some new faces.
First and foremost is Jayson Werth. The talented outfielder missed the entire 2006 campaign with injuries and played sparingly with the Dodgers before that. Werth is versatile, having played 64 games in left field, 43 in right and 30 in center field in 2005. He seems fated to follow in the role that Jason Michaels occupied for the Phillies, that of the multi-position fourth outfielder. Werth is capable of playing all three positions, something the Phillies need if Pat Burrell or Aaron Rowand go down with injuries in 2007, a virtually certainty.
As a hitter Werth is solid, although I am unsure how the layoff in 2006 will affect his game. It is difficult to get a read on Werth’s hitting: his OBP was a constant .338 in 2004 and 2005, but his slugging percentage went from .486 to .374. He hit 16 home runs in 2004 and just 7 in 2005. I doubt this was a product of a decline in his game and rather a product of the Dodgers moving the fences back at Dodgers Stadium. (He hit 11 home runs at home in 2004 and just one in 2005.) I think he’ll thrive and show a lot of power at Citizens when he gets to play, and I predict that Werth will get to make appearances in maybe as many as 50% of the Phillies games.
The catching situation will be interesting. The Phillies primary catcher is going to be Barajas, the former Texas Ranger, with Carlos Ruiz backing up him and Chris Coste available to step in as a super-utility man, capable of playing the infield and at catcher. Essentially the Phillies are going to have three catchers.
Coste, a long-time minor leaguer who didn’t make his major league debut until he was 33-years old, in particular surprised people in 2006, hitting seven home runs with 32 RBIs. Coste’s stats are a little weaker when you consider how lucky he was: despite drawing just ten walks in his 213 plate appearances, he had an OBP of .376, which means that a lot of his batted balls landed for hits when they probably wouldn’t have. Consider that 29% of Coste’s batted balls were Line-Drives, and that is significant because three-quarters of Line-Drives usually fall in for hits. The typical major-leaguer gets about 20% of his hits as Line-Drives. I wouldn’t expect the same level of production from Coste in 2007 that the Phillies got in ’06. He’s a solid player and makes a great bat off the bench, but he needs to work on drawing more walks, or he won’t enjoy the same success he had in 2006.
Ruiz has a lot of Phillies fans intrigued. He played sparingly in ’06 but hit well (three home runs and ten RBIs in just 78 plate appearances). Ruiz played very well at Triple-A Scranton before getting the call to Philadelphia, hitting 16 home runs with 69 RBI in 100 games with the Red Barons. He hit for power (.198 ISO), and for average (.301 GPA). I think he’ll make a great #2 option for the Phillies at catcher and will actually be a more reliable hitter than Coste.
After Ruiz, Coste and Werth is going to be Chris Roberson or Michael Bourn. The Phillies will probably play Roberson as their fifth outfielder instead of Bourn, though Bourn is very talented and appears to be the Phillies centerfielder of the future. Roberson is a talented player who appeared in 57 games with the Phillies, fifteen as a pinch-hitter and sixteen as a pinch-runner. He’s got speed – stealing all three of the bases he tried to take as a Phillie and taking another 25 of 34 as a member of the Phillies Scranton Triple-A affiliate – but he has little power and had an OBP of just .214 with the Phillies. If the Phillies want, they might go instead with Bourn (see my recent post on the Bourn v. Roberson issue), a blazing fast player who successfully stole forty-five of the fifty steals he attempted in the minors in 2006. Bourn might be a riskier move, but a better one in the long-term.
Finally, rounding out the Phillies bench, are Danny Sandoval and Abraham Nunez. Nunez isn’t much of a hitter: his OBP was a terrible .303 and his slugging percentage was a beyond-terrible .273 in 2006. There seems little doubt that the Phillies want to expose Nunez to as few opportunities to gum-up their offense as they can, so Helms will be the starter at third base. Don’t expect Nunez to play much and even when he does, don’t expect him to contribute anything at all. Nunez career GPA is just .220.
I am frankly surprised that Danny Sandoval has finally battled his way to the majors and is poised to be the Phillies backup middle infielder. At the age of 28, he’s played in a handful of major league games and has been in the minors since 1998. He’s not a great power hitter (single-season high of eight home runs). Sandoval also never really became a speedster on the base-paths. In 2005 he was caught in half of the twenty-two steals he attempted in Scranton, a factor that probably explains why he attempted just two steals in 2006 as a Red Baron. Tellingly, the Phillies never used him as a pinch-runner in 2006. I wouldn’t expect to see Danny Sandoval play much at all in 2007.
That’s the Phillies bench, a mixed bag of solid hitters with pop like Ruiz, Coste and Werth, speedsters like Bourn and Roberson, and light-hitting defensive utility infielders like Nunez and Sandoval. It is probably the equal of last year’s bench, which contributed mightily to the Phillies success. I expect them to do the same again.
V. Fielding. I wasn’t surprised at all when John Dewan, author of The Fielding Bible, published his 2006 team Plus / Minus stats in The 2007 Hardball Times Baseball Annual and I saw that the Phillies finished thirteenth in the National League and twenty-second overall in team Plus / Minus. I had known, throughout the season, that the Phillies were a bad fielding team and wouldn’t rank well. That was probably news to the average fan who saw things like Aaron Rowand running into a wall to make a catch and assumed that the Phillies were a defensive powerhouse thanks to Aaron Rowand’s addition to the team. To the contrary, the Phillies went from being the best Plus / Minus team in all of baseball in 2005 to being one of the worst. After going +108 in 2005 – which led the second-best N.L. team, the Houston Astros, by a whopping 58 plays – the Phillies dropped to -33 in 2006. That’s a swing of 141 plays. Basically, the team was a play worse in every game they played from 2006.
Defensive stats defined:
Range Factor (RF): (Putouts + Assists) * 9 / IP. Essentially measures how much a player is involved in defensive plays.
Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER): (Batters Faced – (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) / (Batters Faced – (Home Runs, Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) How often fielders convert balls put into play into outs.
The ’06 Phillies were much worse than the league average in Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER) at .683 (.010 behind the league average). They threw out 27% of base-stealers, a little worse than the league average of 28%. They were about average in terms of errors and double plays.
Why the drop-off? I tend to think that a number of the Phillies played over their heads defensively in 2005, so the resulting fall-off last season took them by surprise. The Phillies do have a number of excellent defenders on the roster. Chief amongst them were the Phillies double-play duo of Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley. Chase Utley continued to solidify his credentials for being the best second baseman in the majors with his +19, third amongst second basemen, in 2006. J.Roll tied for seventh in the majors amongst shortstops at +12. The two helped the Phillies convert 42% of their double play opportunities. The Phillies might be blessed with the strongest middle infield in baseball. Both of these guys are Gold Glove candidates.
Over in right field the Phillies have Shane Victorino, their talented outfielder with a cannon for an arm. Filling in for Aaron Rowand in center field in 2006, Victorino had as many assists as Rowand – six – in 343 fewer innings of play. In just 156 innings in right field Victorino had three assists, just two fewer than Bobby Abreu had in 690 more innings of work. Victorino’s Range Factor was better than Rowand in centerfield (2.70 vs. 2.57), better than Pat Burrell in leftfield (2.14 vs. 1.93), and better than Bobby Abreu in rightfield (2.37 vs. 1.95). He played 814 & 2/3 innings in the outfield in 2006 and didn’t commit a single throwing or fielding error. It would not surprise me if Shane Victorino won the Gold Glove for right field in 2007. In fact, I expect it.
That said, the Phillies have a number of players who struggled in the field. Ryan Howard is one. Ryan stunned people in 2005 when he went +16 after taking over the first base job from Jim Thome and becoming Rookie of the Year. This past season Howard went -8, a massive swing of 24 plays against. Naturally, his performance at the plate more than overshadowed his struggles at first, but you still want to be as complete a player as you can be. Ryan Howard was probably never going to win the Gold Glove, but the decline is a problematic. It also strengthens the arguments – that I don’t agree with – made by Albert Pujols supporters for why their man (who led all MLB first basemen in Plus / Minus at +19) ought to have won the MVP last season.
Over in left field, the Phillies have Pat Burrell, once a solid left fielder with a great arm, but now a poor defender. Over in center field the Phillies have Aaron Rowand, perhaps the best defensive outfielder in baseball in 2005, but someone who struggled last season, plunging from +30 in '06 to -4 in '07 in Plus / Minus. In contrast to the smooth-fielding Victorino, Rowand made five errors in 2006 (two throwing, three fielding). While everyone applauded Rowand’s grit and gasped in amazement at his catch and throw against the Braves earlier in the season, the day-to-day performance Rowand turned in left something to be desired. The Phillies are going to need Rowand to regain his 2005 form to become an elite defensive team once more.
The biggest wildcard the Phillies defense has is over at third base, where Wes Helms and Abraham Nunez will be the Phillies corner defenders. Previously the Phillies were blessed and cursed with David Bell, a weak hitter but strong fielder who provided the Phillies with stellar play at third base. In fact, Bell tied for third in Plus / Minus from 2004-2006 at +54, just a few behind Adrian Beltre (+64) and Scott Rolen (+61), for all third basemen. Now the Phillies enter a new era without Bell’s quick feet and strong arm. Helms seems destined to be the starter over Nunez, which has definite advantages for the Phillies offensively, but is a major unknown to the Phillies defense because he played the position so little in 2006.
Nunez played third for the Phillies late in the 2006 season and we have no Plus / Minus data to look at, I’d note that Nunez Range Factor (2.66) was a little worse than Bell’s (2.78). I have a sneaking suspicion that Nunez’s defensive stats from late in 2006 were very poor, but I have nothing to back that up.
Finally, at catcher the Phillies are going to have three on the roster. Gone are Sal Fasano and long-time Phillie Mike Lieberthal. In their place are Barajas, Ruiz and possibly Coste.
As I noted above, the Phillies aren’t exactly getting Barajas to be a real offensive threat in their lineup. They are getting him to settle down the Phillies pitchers and keep guys like Carlos Beltran from stealing second base. Barajas did a nice job in 2006, throwing out 28% of the runners who tried to steal on him. Teams only tried 0.58 steals a game on Barajas. Teams tried to steal on Coste and Ruiz 0.64 and 0.66 times a game, better than the team average of 1.01, which suggests to me that either Coste and Ruiz caught a lot of games against the Atlanta Braves – who almost never stole bases in 2006 – or they had arms that opposing teams respected. Mike Lieberthal threw out 33% of the guys who tried to steal on him, but teams ran on him much more. Coste and Ruiz 19% and 15% rates of throwing out would-be base-stealers isn’t as interesting as the fact that teams ran on Lieberthal more. Take what you want from that. Overall, I’d say that Barajas, Ruiz and Coste are going to do a nice job holding runners to first base.
And that’s what a good catcher does.
VI. The Outlook Ahead. People are always pessimistic when it comes to the Phillies and I understand why. This is a franchise that always disappoints its fans.
Fans in the 1950s thought that the Wiz Kids were harbingers of future success. They weren’t.
Fans in the 1960s watched the ’64 squad blow a massive lead with just days left in the season.
Fans in the 1970s watched the team struggle to reach the World Series and lose the NLCS three consecutive seasons.
Fans in the 1980s watched the team win their sole World Series and then collapse back into obscurity.
Fans in the 1990s watched the team enjoy a brief, fleeting moment of success in ’93, then watch the team spiral into irrelevance.
Now, in this decade, we’ve watched the Phillies botch their move into their new ballpark with disappointing runs towards the playoffs that came up short.
This team has a bad habit of disappointing the good fans of Philadelphia, who have suffered through decades of bitter disappointment and have a fool me once / fool me twice mentality towards this team.
Maybe this will be different. I am cautiously optimistic about the 2007 Philadelphia Phillies. This team has the best rotation in the N.L. East and maybe even the entire NL – although the Dodgers would give them a run for their money on that score. Armed with the big guns of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell and Jimmy Rollins, there isn’t a reason in the world for the 2007 Phillies not to have the best offense in the N.L. once more. Aside from a weak bullpen (specifically, a weak closer), this team is stacked.
So why can’t the Phillies win World Series? This is a stunning thought for people to contemplate, but I don’t see why not. I think the ’06 Cardinals were an absurdly weak team that peaked at exactly the right time. The Phillies were a game and a half better than the Redbirds in the regular season. A stronger finish and the Phillies might have made the playoffs and blitzed to the World Series. Hey, their 45-30 Post All-Star record was the best in the N.L.
So what can stop the Phillies? Pessimism. The natural malaise that fans who have been fooled too many times feel when they see this team promise their fans, as so many unfaithful spouses do, that this time will be different. The jilted fans reply, like the long-suffering victims naturally do, with: “Show me.”
Well, I think this season will be different. I’m sure I predicted this in the past, but it feels like there is a real chance now. The pitching is there, the hitting is there and the fielding in there. This is the best team in the N.L. East and I don’t see why they couldn’t best the field in the N.L. and make it into the 2007 World Series. This team is different, this year feels different. I hope I am not disappointed.
Projected Opening Day Roster:
Lineup:
SS – Jimmy Rollins
RF – Shane Victorino
2B – Chase Utley
1B – Ryan Howard
LF – Pat Burrell
CF – Aaron Rowand
3B – Wes Helms
C – Rod Barajas
This team has a bad habit of disappointing the good fans of Philadelphia, who have suffered through decades of bitter disappointment and have a fool me once / fool me twice mentality towards this team.
Maybe this will be different. I am cautiously optimistic about the 2007 Philadelphia Phillies. This team has the best rotation in the N.L. East and maybe even the entire NL – although the Dodgers would give them a run for their money on that score. Armed with the big guns of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell and Jimmy Rollins, there isn’t a reason in the world for the 2007 Phillies not to have the best offense in the N.L. once more. Aside from a weak bullpen (specifically, a weak closer), this team is stacked.
So why can’t the Phillies win World Series? This is a stunning thought for people to contemplate, but I don’t see why not. I think the ’06 Cardinals were an absurdly weak team that peaked at exactly the right time. The Phillies were a game and a half better than the Redbirds in the regular season. A stronger finish and the Phillies might have made the playoffs and blitzed to the World Series. Hey, their 45-30 Post All-Star record was the best in the N.L.
So what can stop the Phillies? Pessimism. The natural malaise that fans who have been fooled too many times feel when they see this team promise their fans, as so many unfaithful spouses do, that this time will be different. The jilted fans reply, like the long-suffering victims naturally do, with: “Show me.”
Well, I think this season will be different. I’m sure I predicted this in the past, but it feels like there is a real chance now. The pitching is there, the hitting is there and the fielding in there. This is the best team in the N.L. East and I don’t see why they couldn’t best the field in the N.L. and make it into the 2007 World Series. This team is different, this year feels different. I hope I am not disappointed.
Projected Opening Day Roster:
Lineup:
SS – Jimmy Rollins
RF – Shane Victorino
2B – Chase Utley
1B – Ryan Howard
LF – Pat Burrell
CF – Aaron Rowand
3B – Wes Helms
C – Rod Barajas
P – Pitcher
Bench:
OF – Jayson Werth
OF – Chris Roberson
IF – Danny Sandoval
IF – Abraham Nunez
C – Carlos Ruiz
IF / C – Chris Coste
Pitching Staff:
SP – Cole Hamels
SP – Brett Myers
SP – Jamie Moyer
SP – Freddy Garcia
SP – Adam Eaton
RP – Ryan Madson
RP – Fabio Castro
RP – Rick White
RP – Geoff Geary
RP – Jon Lieber / Alfonso Alfonseca
RP – Tom Gordon
(I am assuming that the Phillies carry 14 position players and 11 pitchers. They will likely carry 13 position players and 12 pitchers, in which case I’d designate Sandoval for the minors and ensure Alfonseca of a spot in the ‘pen.)
PLAY BALL!
Bench:
OF – Jayson Werth
OF – Chris Roberson
IF – Danny Sandoval
IF – Abraham Nunez
C – Carlos Ruiz
IF / C – Chris Coste
Pitching Staff:
SP – Cole Hamels
SP – Brett Myers
SP – Jamie Moyer
SP – Freddy Garcia
SP – Adam Eaton
RP – Ryan Madson
RP – Fabio Castro
RP – Rick White
RP – Geoff Geary
RP – Jon Lieber / Alfonso Alfonseca
RP – Tom Gordon
(I am assuming that the Phillies carry 14 position players and 11 pitchers. They will likely carry 13 position players and 12 pitchers, in which case I’d designate Sandoval for the minors and ensure Alfonseca of a spot in the ‘pen.)
PLAY BALL!
Labels: Batting, Fielding, Managing, Pitching, Predictions
