A CITIZEN'S BLOG

Oftentimes I don't really pay too much attention to the standings at the start of the season. I've seen too many teams come on like gangbusters in April, only to fall back to mediocrity in June and July. If you have a winning record on June 1, then we'll talk. So all during the months of April and May I've been dimly aware that the Florida Marlins, the team that unloaded nearly all of its talent (e.g., Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera) to rebuild once again, were sitting near the top of the standings. As I looked at things the other day, there are what the standings looked like to me:

N.L. East
1. Florida 30-22
2. Philadelphia 31-24
3. Atlanta 28-25
4. New York 25-26
5. Washington 23-31

I was stunned and needed to let the information sink in for a moment before I could process it. Now to all of those Mets fans who questioned my sanity in the preseason for doubting that the '08 Mets were the greatest thing since sliced bread, let me just take a moment and say this:

HA-HA!!!!!!

That felt good ... Well let's just look at the puny Marlins, with their team payroll according to ESPN.com of $22.6 million dollars (half - half! - that of the #29 team, the Tampa Bay Rays at $43.4 million) and the fact that have a better record that the of not-so-mighty New York Mets, spenders of $137 million dollars. Truly stunning. Now, I do intend to take a moment and devote an entire post to mocking the Mets (soon) and dissecting their struggles, but that's not going to be today. Today we are going to try and solve an important question. The Florida Marlins: Who are these guys?

Marlins Offense vs. Phillies Pitching & Fielding. So far the Marlins are scoring runs off their ability to hit home runs. They've hit 76 thus far, second in the N.L. after the Phillies with 79. Dan Uggla leads the team with 16 home runs and 38 RBI. Uggla, who finished third in the 2006 Rookie of the Year Award, is a solid defensive player with a lot of power. He makes a lot of comparisons to Chase Utley because the two play the same position - second base - and hit for power and average, but Uggla isn't the great defensive player that Utley is. While Uggla is an extremely talented player, Hanley Ramirez, the 2006 N.L. Rookie of the Year, is clearly the Fishstripes best: with nine home runs Ramirez has power, but he also supplies something that the Marlins lack this season. Speed. Ramirez has 13 steals in 18 attempts, having swiped half of the Marlins stolen bases.

While Uggla and Ramirez have been great, the big surprise to me is the play of Mike Jacobs. The unheralded Jacobs, who like Uggla and Ramirez debuted with the Marlins in 2006, has quietly hit 11 home runs and 29 RBI so far this season. The Marlins are going to need guys like Jacobs to continue to produce, lest they become a two-man show.

Their power at the plate is the reason why they've scored 254 runs, but they haven't nearly been as efficient as the Phillies have. They've hit .242 with runners in scoring position (BA/RISP) thirteenth in the N.L. Their paltry .326 OBP is also eleventh in the N.L. While the Marlins have scored runs and have had success I believe that their long-term prospects offensively are limited: without good situational hitting or without guys setting the table for the big bats, the Marlins are going to decline offensively because after a while you stop hitting solo home runs and winning games 4-3 by hitting three home runs.

The series will be an interesting test for Brett Myers, who pitches tonight. Can he stop Uggla, Ramirez and Jacobs? Thus far this season Myers has surrendered 15 home runs in 65 innings: 2.07 HR/9. Yikes. Can Myers survive the Fishstripes onslaught? Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer, the Phillies pitchers for Saturday and Sunday respectively, matchup well with the Marlins. Tonight will be the big, critical test.

Phillies Offense vs. Marlins Pitching & Fielding. At the moment the Phillies are doing nearly everything right. They rank second in the N.L. in clutching hitting, they are second in runs scored, first in home runs, third in doubles and fourth in On-Base-Percentage (OBP). They set the table, score runs, hit for power ... all they need is to improve their team speed which languished with Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins on the shelf, but seems to be making a comeback. The Phillies are doing what they are doing largely on the strength of Chase Utley (17 home runs, 46 RBI, .394 OBP) and Pat Burell (13 home runs, 35 RBI, .417 OBP) strong performances. The Phillies have done all of this despite weak play from free agent signee Pedro Feliz (7 home runs, 28 RBI, .305 OBP) and the struggles of superstar Ryan Howard (14 home runs, 38 RBI, .315 OBP). Add in the fact that speedsters Rollins (8/8 steals) and Victorino (12/14 steals) spent much of the season on the bench, and you have a Phillies offense that will only improve as the season wears on.

What do the Marlins send to the mound? A unit that is young (four of their five starting pitchers are younger than the age of 25) and solid, if unspectacular. The Marlins run a little behind the N.L. average in terms of getting strikeouts and allowing walks, so the team's middling 4.25 ERA is no surprise. That the Marlins team ERA is worse than the Phillies (3.99) is a shocker.

Defensively, the Marlins are basically average. There isn't a whole lot separating the Phillies and the Marlins here. Both teams are near the N.L. average of .695 in terms of Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER):

Marlins: .699 DER

Phillies: .692 DER

What does the series hold? With the Phillies coming off their big sweep of the Rockies which saw them score 33 runs, the Phillies clearly have momentum. My prediction is that the Marlins get to Brett Myers tonight and win a close one, but that the Phillies win Saturday and Sunday. Have a good weekend everyone ...

Labels: Base-Stealing, Burrell, Feliz, Howard, Marlins, Myers, Power-Hitting, Rollins, Speed, Utley, Victorino

The Phillies emerge from a so-so trip out to the West which saw the team drop four of even games against the Diamondbacks and Giants with an off-day before starting up a three-game series with the Atlanta Braves tomorrow. I’ll preview the Phillies – Braves series tomorrow.

Despite losing two of three to the Giants over the weekend, I think the Phillies are returning a stronger team than they left Philadelphia as. Jimmy Rollins has returned to the roster and extended trips to the West Coast have to be draining on the Phillies. Up next: the Braves and then an inter-league series with the Toronto Blue Jays, a rematch of the 1993 World Series …

I wanted to talk a little about speed and the Phillies … There are basically two things we look at to measure speed in baseball: stolen bases and triples. The stolen base is a measure of speed because the player attempting to steal has to traverse the area from first to second while the ball is still within the baseball diamond area. You have to be fast to go from a dead-stop to a run and accomplish that. We also look at triples because players need to be quick to leg out the extra 90 feet to take this from a double to a three-bagger. We usually don’t count doubles because usually doubles are the product of hard-hit balls to distant portions of the ballpark rather than speed.

As those who read sabremetric publications like The Hardball Times or Baseball Prospectus, or who read Michael Lewis’ Moneyball, know the stolen base isn’t typically a strategy held in high esteem by the sabremetrics community. I’ve often argued that where you stand on the stolen base is a pretty good indication about whether or not you stand on the Catholic or Protestant divide of baseball, the old schoolers or the sabremetricians. To the old school, Small Ballers, the argument for the stolen base is basically this: you’ve got to be aggressive and do little things like bunt, hit-and-run and, yes, steal, to get that extra base to get into position to score and to claw out those runs.

The counter-argument is basically that base-stealing is counter-productive because the penalty for being caught stealing out-weighs the benefits. Better to play safer station-to-station baseball, advancing runners with singles, doubles and the mighty home run. Consider this …

According to Baseball Prospectus’ Run Expectancy Matrix (see, Table 4-1.1 of Baseball Between the Numbers), a team with a runner on first and no outs can expect to score 0.9259 runs in an inning. Let’s say that runner attempts to steal second base. There are two possible outcomes:

If he’s safe, the run expectancy matrix improves to 1.1596, an improvement of 0.2337 …
If he’s out, the run expectancy matrix declines to 0.2866, a decline of 0.6393 …

Your position can increase by a quarter of a run, or it can decline by two-thirds of a run. The guys at Baseball Prospectus ran the numbers and determined that a stolen base adds 0.1593 runs to a team’s total, while a caught stealing subtracts 0.3687 runs from a team’s total.

If you play the numbers, the BP guys argue, then stealing bases is a losing strategy unless you can be successful around 73% of the time.

The 2007 Phillies were a remarkable successful team in this respect, successfully stealing 138 bases in 157 tries, for a 88% success rate. Applying the numbers above, the Phillies added 22 runs to their offense with base-stealing though they lost 7 runs with the caught stealings. Total net gain: 15 runs. The New York Mets, the Phillies competition last season, led the majors with 200 stolen bases, but their aggressive base-running only netted them an extra 15 runs as well because they were caught stealing 46 times (in fact, they were actually a tenth of a run behind the Phillies). While it isn’t conventional sabremetric wisdom, I think that the stolen base was a successful strategy and helped the Phillies improve their offense in ‘07. I think that most of the credit for that belongs to First Base Coach Davey Lopes, who was brought onto the team last season to help Charlie Manuel. Taking players like Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn and Chris Roberson aside, he made them all into aggressive base-runners who stole bases by the bushel. J.Roll and Victorino finished fifth and sixth respectively in terms of stolen bases in the N.L. in 2007, with J.Roll swiping 41 in 47 tries (87.2% success) and Victorino taking 37 of 41 (90.2%). Michael Bourn, in limited playing time, stole 18 of 19 bases (94.7%).

Applying BP’s numbers, that meant that J.Roll’s running added 4.32 runs, Victorino added 4.42 runs, and Bourn added 2.50 runs. Compare those totals to that of the Mets Jose Reyes, who led the N.L. in steals with 78 in 99 attempts (78.8%), but whose manic base-running only added 4.68 runs.

Lopes also helped press Jimmy Rollins in the basepaths to leg out more triples. J.Roll, who had previously led the N.L. in triples three times, led the N.L. in triples once again, but he hit 20 in ‘07, eight more than his previous season highs in ’01 and ’04. With Lopes counsel, the Phillies went from eighth in stolen bases in 2006 to second last season, and from sixth in triples to first last season.

Now, one thing that I thought when I looked at the Phillies base-stealing totals was that Lopes tutelage helped the Phillies run the bases well. Well … the Phillies base-running stats yield some interesting facts. While the Phillies over-all gained +104 bases in 2007 with their aggressiveness on the bases, they gained 100 of those 104 via base-stealing. The Phillies rated a +4 based on pure running on the bases according to the 2007 Bill James Handbook … As an aside, I’ll note that the Mets likewise struggled, posting an MLB-best +111, of which all but three were a product of base-stealing … It is kind of an interesting thing: that the two fastest teams in baseball were actually average base-running teams. The best MLB in running the bases in 2007 was, of all teams, the Kansas City Royals at +60. The best team in the N.L. was the Atlanta Braves at +40.

What else? The Phillies made 24 base-running outs, which was pretty average (the N.L. average was 22.6) … Phillies base-runners scored about 29% of the time, a little bit better than the MLB average of 28%.

One way of looking at what Lopes did was to look at the improvements Victorino and Rollins made in ’07 over their ’06 stats. (Not enough data to look at Bourn.) Unfortunately, while there is data on Victorino, there isn’t much. Victorino made a base-running out and was +14 in base-running in ’06. Last season he made four base-running outs and was +36, but James sub-divides base-running (+7) from base-stealing (+29). Looking at Victorino’s numbers, I cannot say that there is anything to support m theory that Lopes influence made the team better, more aggressive base-runners or improved the team in any better.

The numbers are much different with Rollins: in ’06 Rollins was a mere +9 in base-running and made four base-running outs. In ’07, Rollins was a whopping +61. While +29 of that was base-stealing, even more – +32 – was honest-to-goodness base-running. Additionally, Rollins didn’t make a single base-running out. It is difficult to draw conclusions from numbers relating to one player, but it seems likely to me that Lopes influence made Rollins a better threat running the bases and helped make him the 2007 N.L. MVP. Given how critical Rollins play was to the Phillies success last season, then Lopes – it could be argued – played a vital role in securing the Phillies the N.L. East title by making J.Roll into an aggressive base-runner.

The Phillies have had numerous set-backs this season and I wondered how the setbacks were affecting the Phillies totals. First, the Phillies dealt Michael Bourn to the Astros in the Brad Lidge deal, thus losing their fourth outfielder and their primary defensive replacement / pinch-runner. Then Lopes was diagnosed with cancer and took a leave of absence from the team. Finally, Rollins and Victorino both went down during big portions of the month of April. Rollins only just made his return to the lineup Friday night against the San Francisco Giants.

At the moment the Phillies top base-stealer is – surprise, surprise – Jayson Werth with six steals in seven tries. Victorino is right behind him with five in six tries, while J.Roll has swiped just two. Collectively the Phillies have 21 steals in 26 attempts (80.7%). The Phillies have also only hit five triples so far this season. Astonishingly, Ryan Howard (1) has out-tripled Jimmy Rollins (0). That will change …

Overall, the Phillies rank ninth in stolen bases and eleventh in triples. The Phillies poor showing in both categories is largely a product of Rollins and Lopes being away from the team. Rollins is already back in the lineup and Davey Lopes ought to re-join the team shortly. I’d expect to see the Phillies get much, much more aggressive on the bases and start to really stretch opposing defenses. It is worth noting that despite the Phillies injuries the team has emerged from April with a winning record and sits, at 21-18, just three games out of first place at the moment. With J.Roll back, look for the Phillies to start positing some big speed numbers to balance their awesome power stats.

Phillies – Braves tomorrow.

Labels: Base-Stealing, Bourn, Rollins, Speed, Victorino

The Phillies problems are at the top of the lineup. If Jimmy Rollins continues to sit out of the lineup, as he did for the final two games of the Mets series, then the Phillies have serious problems. Shane Victorino is off to a slow start with a .233 OBP and just two runs scored. He's also stolen just a single base and was caught once. Eric Bruntlett, J.Roll's replacement, is making a terrific argument for the Phillies to promote Jason Donald from Double-A Reading to play short. Thus far, in addition to making two costly errors on Wednesday night, Bruntlett has an OBP of .231. In order for Burrell, Utley, Pedro Feliz and Ryan Howard to have RBI opportunities, then Victorino and Bruntlett are going to have to produce, or the Phillies will have a dangerously unbalanced lineup.



Click here for the Q & A session I did with GoatRiders of the Apocalypse.

Labels: Base-Stealing, Burrell, Hamels, Managing, Moyer, Myers, Pitching, Power-Hitting, Rollins, Utley, Victorino

When Bill Clinton declared that the era of big government was over in his 1996 State of the Union, he was wrong. When Bill Clinton left office five years later in 2001, he was replaced by a President who created the biggest government that America has seen since Lyndon Johnson embarked on his Great Society in 1964. From Medicare Part D to hiking tariffs on steel to invading Iraq to listening into domestic conversations without a warrant to Federalism (i.e., Terri Schiavo), George Bush’s government has been the biggest Big Government in four decades. Arguably Bush’s decisions have been good for America. Arguably they haven’t. The point I am making is that nobody can predict the future with any reliability and we haven’t a clue how events now will shape the world to come. People who have looked at macrotrends and have been wildly off in their predictions.

In 1996, Bill Clinton wanted to make a clean break with the Democratic Party’s tax-and-spend past and he was largely successful: his second term saw record fiscal surpluses and a dearth of federal spending. Bill Clinton became the most conservative Democratic President since Grover Cleveland held office in 1893 – 1897. But events like 9/11 and the primacy of conservative, evangelical voters in the political calculations brought about big changes in the governmental landscape. You could see emerging trends in 1996 that never achieved fruition in 2006.

So too I see emerging trends in the game of baseball and in the Phillies approach to it, but I am loathe to go out on a limb and make a definitive declaration about what baseball and the Philadelphia Phillies will look like in 2017. I think the trends I see are significant, but we shall see.

Specifically, I see a definite trend towards small ball in 2008, based on what I saw in 2007, and I think you’ll definitely see teams change their strategies in the coming years.

What is small ball? Well, basically small ball is the strategy teams employ to score runs by means like bunting, base-stealing, sacrifice flies, aggressive base-running, etc. I’ll be referring to Bill James section on Manufactured Runs contained in the 2008 Handbook. James divides Manufactured Runs into two categories: the bunting / base-stealing kind (Type-1) and the sac fly / base-running kind (Type-2). Managers and old school-types love the idea of the manufactured run – the grit, the toughness shown. Clay Davenport has a nice bit entitled “Durocher’s Obsession: Static Versus Dynamic Offenses” in the new book from the writers of Baseball Prospectus called It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over. Davenport sums up the appeal of the dynamic, small ball offense thusly: “Managers have often preferred the active teams, the dynamic ones, partly because these teams let the manager do something.” Managers like Leo Durocher, the skipper of the 1951 New York Giants, and modern managers like the Angels Mike Scioscia like to utilize these tactics. Scoiosca, for example, has seen his Angels lead the American League in stolen bases attempted the last five seasons and lead the A.L. in runners moving at the pitch the last four.

The reason why sabremetricians, and the rare manager like the Baltimore Orioles Earl Weaver, dislike small ball is that teams need home runs to generate offense. Davenport (page 267):

The trouble is that you can’t get a really good offense without home runs. It’s like trying to lose weight without exercising, or running for office without raising money. The gain from home runs is so enormous that any other way requires exceptional – and unsustainable – performances.

I see the trend towards small ball in part because of the focus on steroids in the game of baseball has tainted the home runs records of Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and countless other players. The era of the home run was done in by Barry Bonds chemically enhanced body. The sight of Bonds jacking a 455-foot home run has left teams with a bitter taste in their mouths. Steroids don’t make you a better base-stealer, so teams are moving in that direction, I believe.

What’s my proof? Well, I’ll cite to three pieces of evidence:

#1 – Manufactured Runs are up. According to Bill James (see, 2008 Handbook), Manufactured Runs were up 2% over 2006. It’s not a smoking gun – and hey, it might be statistically insignificant – but it is there and it is worth considering;

#2 – The total number of home runs were down in 2007. MLB hitters bopped 4,957 home runs in 2007, the first time since 1997 that the total number of home runs did not exceed 5,000.

#3 – The Phillies ran a lot in 2007 and seemed to embrace a hybrid fusion of small ball with big ball. Maybe the Phillies are unique, but they might be a barometer for the rest of baseball. If the team with Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell (two classic big ball slugger types) moved towards small ball in 2007, can the rest of the major leagues be far behind?

Let’s start with Manufactured Runs: the Phillies ranked twelvth in 2006 in MR, with 148. The break-down was rather interesting. The Phillies were dead-last in all of baseball – not just in the N.L., but in all of baseball – in Type-1 MR with 33. Even American League Small-Ball allergic teams like the Toronto Blue Jays (42), the Boston Red Sox (39) and the Oakland A’s (37) had more. Given that the Phillies boasted one of the finest base-stealers in baseball in Jimmy Rollins on the roster, this was a mild surprise. Simply put, the 2006 Phillies tried to bash their way to the pennant and came close when teams actually pitched to Ryan Howard. The Phillies were actually third in the N.L. with 115 Type-2 MR, which suggests that the team was aggressive in many respects.

The 2007 Phillies were quite the change from the previous season. The ’07 Phillies were fourth overall in Manufactured Runs with 169. They were fourth in Type-2 MRs with 106 in 2007, but they doubled their output of Type-1 MRs with 63, ranking them sixth in the N.L. James includes individual data on MRs in 2007, so we can see that two Phillies ranked in the top ten of Manufactured Runs. Jimmy Rollins, the 2007 N.L. MVP ranked fifth in MRs with 32 (15 are Type-1, 17 are Type-2), while Shane Victorino tied for ninth with the Rockies Troy Tulowitzki with 26 MR’s (13 each). The MLB and N.L. leader in Manufactured Runs, by the way, was the Mets Jose Reyes with a whopping 52. Reyes had 35 Type-1 MRs alone.

… As an aside, Pat Burrell and Aaron Rowand, surprisingly, ranked third on the Phillies roster in MRs with 14 each. Interesting, Rowand had all 14 of his MRs as the Type-2 “hustle” variety. Burrell split his 7 each for Type-1 and Type-2. I thought this was a misprint, and I might be right: Pat Burrell had zero sac bunts in 2007 and zero stolen bases attempted. That has to be wrong.

Let’s look at the Phillies numbers next. On stolen bases, the Phillies ranked second is successful steals and third in attempts in 2007 with 157, a change over 2006, when they ranked eighth in successful steals and ninth in attempts with 117. With Shane Victorino and Michael Bourn helping J.Roll, the Phillies took 138 bases and were caught just 19 times, the fewest in the N.L. and possessed the best success rate of any MLB team: 88%. The average N.L. team was successful 76% of the time.

What about bunting? Well, the Phillies attempted 84 sacrifice bunts in 2007, a slight increase over 79 in 2006. Clearly the sacrifice is not a major weapon in the Phillies game-plan. The Phillies also had the runners moving 90 times, 3 under the N.L. average, but significantly more than the 69 they tried in 2007. My conclusion is that the Phillies incorporated some more small ball into their plans in 2007, but they chose to emphasize speed. Here I credit former Milwaukee Brewers manager and current Phillies first base coach Davey Lopes, who worked with J.Roll, Bourn, Victorino and other Phillies to improve the team’s speed. Certainly the uptick clearly shows that the Phillies are running more, but aren’t bunting runners over.

Incidentially, for the second year in a row the Rockies led the N.L. in sacrifice bunts. I’m continually surprised that the Rockies are such aggressive practitioners of small ball.

That’s the Phillies small-ball index. As I said earlier, I see emerging trends in the game towards speed and small ball tactics, but I could be very wrong. Time shall tell.

Labels: Base-Stealing, Bunting, Speed

You can’t win baseball games without scoring runs. That’s about as simple a statement about baseball that you will ever hear. And the truest. Great baseball teams need to be balanced at every phase of the game, from hitting to pitching to fielding. Teams that attempt to rely solely on their pitchers and defense will inevitably fail because you cannot hope to eke out 1-0 victories in the modern game of baseball.

The subject of hitting probably the most tilled field in the baseball world. Fielding is baseball’s newest frontier and pitching, thanks to people like Voros McCracken, has recently been the subject of much discussion and analysis. The offensive aspect of the game has long been discussed and analyzed, so we have many metrics and tools to utilize in this discussion. While sabremetrics began with Bill James questioning the error and fielding percentage, fielding stats, in his original Baseball Abstract, it is in the realm of hitting that he made his first real splash when he conceived of the statistic of Runs Created (RC) as a tool to measure individual performance.

Many of the readers of this blog are keenly aware of RC and know the history behind it, but I’ll give a little primer on some of the stats we’ll be talking about:

Runs Created was developed by James to combat the problem of evaluating players performance without relying on what their teammates do. Runs scored, for example, is flawed because it relies on the guy hitting behind you. He has to bat you in. Runs Batted In (RBI), which was championed by newspaperman Ernie Lanigan in the early 1900’s and only became an official stat of the N.L. and A.L. in 1920, relies on players getting on base ahead of you. Easy to rip 100 RBIs if the guys playing in front of you are named Derek Jeter Alex Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield. The solution was to look at what you did to give your teammates chances to score by getting on base (A Factor) what you did to advance runners (B Factor), and how many chances you had (C Factor). Here is the modern formula:

A= (H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP)
B= (S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K)
C= (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF).

(A * B) / C

The original formula proposed by James in his third Baseball Abstract in 1979, looked like this: ((Hits + Walks) * (Total Bases)) / (At Bats + Walks)

James most recently created the modern formula in 2004 to account for the complexities in the modern game.

After Runs Created there are a passel of stats we’ll look at, ranging from Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO., a stat which measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage, to Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage, which measures overall power at the plate, to On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances), which is a stat that ousted Batting Average as a measure of a player’s ability thanks to the Oakland A’s realization during the 1980’s that since a walk was just as good, if not better, than a single, than any system that didn’t take the walk into account was flawed. I talked a little about this the other day in discussing fielding. Eric Walker’s The Sinister First Baseman, a collection of essays on baseball that Oakland A’s General Manager Sandy Alderson read in the early 1980’s and whose conclusions Alderson incorporated into the A’s baseball philosophy, is the key intellectual author of OBP. As Walker notes in his book, the most precious thing that a team has in baseball is it’s three outs each inning and their twenty-seven in a game. Once you waste those, they are gone forever, so Thou Shalt Not Waste Outs is the creed of the Moneyball movement.

Alright, with all of that theory behind us, let’s move on to the Phillies.

So how did the Phillies offense function? Very well. For the second consecutive season, the Phillies offense ranked first in the National League with runs scored, scoring 892, 32 more than the Colorado Rockies and 82 more than the Atlanta Braves. The Phillies 892 runs would have actually ranked them second in the American League, where scoring is always higher because of the designated hitter. The Yankees led the A.L. in runs scored with 968, but the Phillies hit more home runs than they did (213 vs. 201) and stole more bases (138 vs. 123). The Phillies 892 runs scored are the most in the N.L. since the Braves scored 907 runs in 2003.

The Phillies were the offensive juggernaut they were because they packed power at the plate, they got on base, and they were fast.

In addition to ranking first in runs scored, the Phillies ranked second in home runs with 213 (18 fewer than the Milwaukee Brewers), second in stolen bases with 138 (62 fewer than the N.Y. Mets – although it is worth pointing out that they did rank first in stolen base percentage at 88%, better than the Mets 81%), fourth in doubles with 326, first in slugging percentage (.458) and they tied for first in On-Base Percentage with the Rockies.

Undoubtedly Phillies critics will point to the cozy confines of Citizens Bank Ballpark and argue that the Phillies offense only performs well at home. Not true. The 2007 Phillies ranked first in runs scored in away games in the N.L. with 442. The Phillies .442 away slugging percentage was second in the N.L., and their 97 road home runs were third. No Coors Field effect for the Phillies, in contrast to the Colorado Rockies, who scored just 382 runs on the road (good for fifth in the N.L.) and who rank tenth in away OPS with .730 to the Phillies .793 away OPS … Although to be fair, the Rockies played three times as many games at Petco Park in 2007 as the Phillies did, so that might have had an effect. Curse baseball’s unbalanced schedule!

We are going to break up the discussions of the individual Phillies into particular areas of the game.


The star of our 2007 Season In Review is the 2007 National League MVP, Jimmy Rollins. I won’t repeat my earlier post about the evolution of J.Roll’s game from free-swinging lead-off hitter who never got on base to the weapon he is today, but it does bear some repeating: basically, for Jimmy Rollins first three years in the big leagues he was a free-swinger who racked up 100+ strikeouts a season. After undergoing some tutelage from contact-hitter extraordinaire Tony Gwynn, J.Roll cut down on the strikeouts and became a much more complete player.


His last four seasons he’s posted 100+ Runs Created. A uniquely dangerous hitter with his speed and power, starting in the second-half of the 2006 season J.Roll became much more dangerous threat by beginning to club home runs with regularity. J.Roll hit 25 home runs in 2006 after hitting a total of 26 in 2004 and 2005 combined. The trend towards power in his stroke is pretty clear when you look at J.Roll’s Isolated Power numbers:



ISO:
2004: .166
2005: .141
2006: .201
2007: .235


The N.L. average for Isolated Power was .157 in 2007, so J.Roll has elevated himself from lead-off guy with average power to a real slugger. Rollins .531 Slugging Percentage ranked third on the Phillies roster in 2007, bested by just Ryan Howard (.584) and Chase Utley (.566). This season he hit 30 home runs and added an astonishing 20 triples, leading the N.L. by eight (the Mets Jose Reyes was second with a distant 12). Empowered to run more, J.Roll took 41 of 47 bases in the field, good enough for fifth in the N.L. J.Roll’s terrific season helped elevate the Phillies offense and enable the Phillies to lead the N.L. in triples and finish second in stolen bases, the two major ‘speed’ categories.

We’ll start with speed … Remember what I noted earlier about the lessons of The Sinister First Baseman and the Oakland A’s Thou Shalt Not Waste Outs. This is a central tenant of sabremetrics and becomes one of the biggest bones of contention with the old school of baseball when discussed with the subject of the stolen base.

The old school of thought on the steal might be accurately summed up as follows: in order to win baseball games, teams must be aggressive, and being aggressive means doing things like sacrifice bunts and stealing bases. Just imagine that image of the grizzled veteran sliding hard into second base, squaring around to bunt his teammate from second base to third. The slide, the dirty uniform, the grit, the sweat, the determination.

That was the popular image of baseball, something of a hold-over from the Dead Ball era when teams did a lot of that – bunting, base-stealing, stretching doubles into triples, etc. – and the old schoolers incorporate that popular image into what they want to see in modern baseball. The philosophy even has a name: Small Ball.

Sabremetricians, in contrast, long-ago came to the conclusion that the Small Ball strategy was a loser. The benefits of the stolen base – an extra base advanced – rarely exceed the risk of losing a baserunner and losing an out. The home run, the Sabremetricians argued, was the most effective way of clearing the bases and scoring runs. Bill James, when discussing Rickey Henderson’s epic 1982 season, which saw Henderson set a major-league record with 130 stolen bases, noted that Henderson had also been caught stealing 42 times. Said James in his 1983 Baseball Abstract: “That’s 42 outs he took away from some Oakland batter … The actual increase in runs scored resulting from Henderson’s base running: 4 1/2 runs. Four and a half goddamn runs, and they want to give him an MVP award for it.”

Baseball Between the Numbers, the book written in 2006 by the staff of Baseballprospectus.com, tagged Rickey Henderson’s running in 1982 as gaining the A’s 22.2 runs, while the times he was caught stealing cost the A’s 20.6 runs, thus netting the A’s an extra 1.6 runs for the season. The “break-even” rate, the rate by which you must be successful for this to be a winning strategy is roughly 73-78%. The value of a stolen base is .1593 runs, the cost of an out trying to steal is .3687 runs.

The old school belief in Small Ball is summed up by Joe Morgan, the Hall of Fame second baseman whose scattershot ramblings drive sabremetricians batty, when he stated about an Oakland A’s playoff defeat: “The A’s lose because they are two-dimensional. They have good pitching and they try to hit home runs. They don’t use speed and don’t try to manufacture runs. They wait for the home run. They are still waiting.” That’s the basic divide between the sabremetrics crowd and the small ballers.

There is no doubt that the Phillies ran more in 2007 then they had in recent memory. In 2007 they attempted 157 steals, 138 of which were successful. (Incidentially, applying the numbers mentioned above to the Phillies, that means that the Phillies added 14.97 runs to their total by running in 2007: (.1593 * 138) + (-.3687 * 19). The Mets, who attempted 246 steals and were successful 200 times, added 14.89 runs to their total by base-stealing.) This was a significant jump over 2006, when they ran just 117 times, 92 of them successful. (Added runs: 5.43.) The influence here comes from new Phillies First Base coach Davey Lopes, a talented base-runner in his own day, who joined the Phillies for the 2007 season and heartily encouraged the Phillies players to run more and show better discipline on the base-paths.

As I noted, J.Roll led the Phillies with 41 stolen bases in 47 attempts. But he wasn’t the Phillies only base-stealing threat. Shane Victorino, the Phillies new centerfielder, took an astonishing 37 of 41 stolen bases. Victorino’s success rate was actually higher than J.Roll’s (90% to 87%). Aaron Rowand stole six of nine bases. Tadahito Iguchi, Chase Utley’s replacement at second base when he was injured, took six of seven bases in limited action. Jayson Werth, the Phillies new full-time rightfielder, took seven of eight in similarly limited action. Chase Utley took nine of ten. Even Carlos Ruiz, the Phillies catcher, took six of seven!

But no discussion of speed and base-stealing would be complete without mentioning the fact that Michael Bourn stole 18 of 19 bases in 2007. I know that I raved about this ad naseum this year, but the performance Bourn put in earlier in the season in San Francisco where he entered the game as a pinch-runner, stolen second, then stole third and scored on a weak grounder by Wes Helms because of his blazing speed, was one of the most astonishing performances I’ve seen recently. The run was a pure manufactured run, made possible only by Bourn’s speed around the bases.

In you are counting, by the way, those numbers mean J.Roll added 4.319 runs to the Phillies offense stealing bases, Victorino added 4.419 runs, and Bourn added 2.498.

Also, for the second consecutive season, the Phillies hit 41 triples. The decline of the triple is an interesting subject in baseball – partly a product of conservative-minded baserunners or the proliferation of slow-footed DH-type sluggers, partly due to the trend towards natural grass and smaller parks – but the Phillies managed to lead the N.L. in them in 2007. Credit here goes almost solely to J.Roll, who hit nearly half of them (20). Utley hit five, Victorino hit another three, Bourn hit three, and Werth hit three. Surprisingly, Greg Dobbs, the Phillies backup infielder / outfielder, hit four. Even more surprisingly, Carlos Ruiz had two triples in 2007. While the Phillies didn’t even come close to leading the majors in triples in 2006 (the Dodgers did with 58), their 41 that season was impressive.

Let me stop and talk a little about Victorino here. What a terrific season he had in 2007: in addition to his 37 steals, Victorino also hit 12 home runs, 23 doubles, 47 RBI and scored 78 runs. Victorino’s .347 OBP was actually a shade better than J.Roll’s .345 … As I noted in my Season in Review series, you have to read Victorino’s accomplishments at the plate in conjunction with what he does in the field, because he might have been one of the best rightfielders in baseball in 2007, throwing out eight runners attempting to advance. The Flyin’ Hawaiian has a nice balance of speed (he hit eight triples in 2006), power at the plate (a respectable .142 ISO), and defense. I’m glad that he’ll be manning centerfield in 2008.

Michael Bourn, who left the Phillies in the Brad Lidge deal, became a favorite of Phillies fans as the season wore on, and many wanted to see Bourn move over into centerfield and succeed J.Roll as the Phillies lead-off hitter. Yes, Michael Bourn was a terrific – bit – player for the Phillies in 2007, but there were a lot of flaws to his game. Defensively, Bourn played 302 innings for the Phillies and never collected an assist, which I find odd. Bourn had little real power at the plate that he did not manufacture with his legs. His isolated power at the plate was a sub-par .101 … Bourn himself had 33 hits in 2007, 26 of which were singles. I’m not sure he’d duplicate his success in 2008, and in any case, his defensive contributions wouldn’t be greater than Victorino’s.

At any rate, here is what Rollins, Bourn and Victorino all contributed to the Phillies lineup in 2007, according to Runs Created per 27 Outs:

RC/27:
J.Roll: 6.25
Bourn: 5.76
Victorino: 4.87

I don’t have the Phillies base-running data yet (Bill James Handbook 2008 is on my bookshelf and I intend to open it up after January 1), but I suspect that the Phillies will have better base-running numbers then they did in 2006, when Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell ranked as two of the worst base-runners in the major leagues. I suspect all of this, the better base-running, the increase in steals, the high success rate in stolen bases, etc., is the product of Lopes counsel and advice to his hitters.

I think the Phillies decision to utilize the stolen base and to be more aggressive on the bases was a good thing. The hatred the sabremetrics community has for the stolen base isn’t unanimity – Bill James, I’ve noticed from reading his Historical Baseball Abstract, has some nice things to say about the stolen base. Check out James comments for 1960’s baseball:

As the [1960’s] commenced, baseball showed promise of opening up into a new generation of exciting, multi-faceted offense. The use of speed as an offensive weapon, which had atrophied for forty years, began to re-emerge late in the fifties …

Many sabremetricians think the stolen base is exciting and want to see more speed in the game, which is running the risk of becoming a game of nine sluggers at the plate smashing 450-foot solo home runs. In the Lords of the Game I think I see an emerging trend away from the power game and back to a more balanced offense that people used to see in the 1970’s. I’m not saying that every team is going to look like the 1980’s St. Louis Cardinals, but I think teams are going to run more because the focus on steroids is going to impact sluggers, and the backlash against Moneyball is going to encourage teams to utilize speed more and more. It looks like the Phillies, with Victorino and J.Roll, are going to be on the cusp of these changes, with two speedy players who like to steal bases and leg doubles into triples. In fact, all throughout the Phillies roster they have a lot of surprisingly fast players, from Jayson Werth to Chase Utley, even to catcher Carlos Ruiz. This is a fast team, and I expect to see the total of 138 stolen bases exceeded in 2008.

The Phillies don’t really practice a lot of small ball, although that changed a little in 2007. The bunt, the sacrifice, is also a component of small ball and the Phillies didn’t do a lot of that in 2007, 65 sacrifice hits – eighth in the N.L. and exactly the league average. The Mets, who led the N.L. in steals, also ranked second in sacrifice hits. The Phillies actually ranked sixteenth in sac hits in 2006, so you are seeing an evolution of the Phillies offense away from the pure home run to a bit more of a mix, but the Phillies have kept their feet in the long-ball camp more.

Let’s move along to clutch hitting … Another of the shibboleths of sabremetrics is that clutch hitting doesn’t exist. Naturally, this is a topic of much consternation amongst baseball people because the idea that some players elevate their game in ‘clutch’ situations is center to their view of the baseball universe. Dick Cramer, a researcher for a pharmaceutical company, utilized his company’s computers to test whether or not clutch hitting was real and came to the conclusion, right around the time that Bill James was publishing his Abstracts, that it did not. This observation is met with much disagreement with the old school baseball people who fervently believe that clutch hitting is a talent, not random luck, and that it is essential to a team’s success.

I think the Phillies refute that conventional wisdom quite nicely:

BA/RISP:
1. Atlanta: .291
2. Chicago: .278
3. Los Angeles: .278
4. NY Mets: .277
5. Colorado: .276
6. St. Louis: .274
7. Pittsburgh: .272
8. San Diego: .271
9. Florida: .268
10. Houston: .267
11. San Francisco: .264
12. Cincinnati: .263
13. Milwaukee: .261
14. Washington: .261
15. Philadelphia: .259
16. Arizona: .249
N.L. Average: .269

I think the Phillies performance is a testament to the essential truth that clutch hitting is over-rated. They were the second-worst clutch-hitting team and yet they managed to led the N.L. in runs scored. The two worst clutch-hitting teams in the National League were two of the league’s four playoff teams. Although, interestingly, I found that the Phillies were the third-best in BA/RISP with 2 outs, hitting .261, where the N.L. average was .249 …

The Phillies success at the plate and lack of ability to drive in clutch runs is hardly new – in 2006 they ranked thirteenth in BA/RISP in the N.L. despite leading the league in runs scored.

Conclusions: hitting well with runners in scoring position is not important!

But let’s see how each of the individual Phillies did here …

BA/RISP:
Werth: .379
Utley: .304
Rowand: .287
Howard: .282
Ruiz: .280
Rollins: .272
Iguchi: .267
Burrell: .258
Dobbs: .245
Victorino: .236
Nunez: .217
Helms: .198

Hitting well with runners in scoring position is something that fluctuates from year-ti-year. E.g., Pat Burrell, who hit .263 BA/RISP in 2004, then hit .313 in 2005, dipped to .222 in 2006, and leveled off to .258 in 2007. It is really something where there is little-to-no consistency from year-in and year-out.

Let’s talk about Chase Utley for a moment … Jimmy Rollins won the 2007 N.L. MVP award because of his terrific hitting, his speed, his power and his defense. He was the key figure in the Phillies playoff push. However, Chase Utley was well on his way to being the 2007 N.L. MVP before his injury mid-summer, which caused him to miss a month of the season. I think Utley will emerge as the favorite to win the award in 2008 because he is so consistently one of the best hitters in baseball. While we are talking about hitting in the clutch, here are Utley’s 2004-2007 BA/RISP stats:

2004: .275
2005: .309
2006: .308
2007: .304

Mind you that Utley didn’t take over as the Phillies regular second baseman until the one-third point of the 2005 season, splitting time with Placido Polanco. Since Utley got the job, he’s been terrific. In 2007, he hit 48 doubles – which tied him for third in the N.L. and was just two behind Matt Holiday, all while missing a month of the season – and 22 Home Runs, 103 RBI, 5 triples, scored 104 runs, had a batting average of .322 and an On-Base Percentage of .410, grounded into just seven double plays all season long (even a great player like Albert Pujols hit into 27 of them in 2007), stole nine of ten bases and posted his third consecutive season with 100+ Runs Created.

Utley is a hitter with innumerable dimensions at the plate. Want power? Check out his Isolated Power stats:

ISO:
2004: .202
2005: .249
2006: .218
2007: .234

What speed? He’s stolen 74 bases in 83 attempts, an 89% success rate, and he’s hit 17 triples in his brief career.

Toughness? He was hit by pitches a whopping 25 times in 2007, more than any other player in the N.L. (second – teammate Aaron Rowand).

Utley is the Phillies most dangerous and effective hitter in 2007, better than J.Roll or Ryan Howard. Check out Runs Created per 27 Outs:

RC/27 (400+ Plate Appearances):
Utley: 7.88
Howard: 7.76
Burrell: 7.02
J.Roll: 6.25
Rowand: 5.88
Victorino: 4.87
Ruiz: 4.27

That’s phenomenal. Add in the fact that Utley is one of the best defensive second basemen in baseball, and you have a really complete player. Despite missing as much time as he did, Utley still managed to tie with J.Roll and Prince Fielder for sixth in Win Shares amongst N.L. players with 28. Utley’s 17 Wins Shares Above Bench player ranked him fifth amongst N.L. players, again without the benefit of a month of the 2007 season. Look how consistently good Utley has been seen through the eyes of Win Shares:

Win Shares / WSAB
2004: 8 / 2
2005: 27 / 15
2006: 28 / 14
2007: 28 / 17

If Chase Utley wins the 2008 MVP award he’ll be the third Phillie in three years to win it, a feat unmatched in the N.L. since Mort Cooper, Stan Musial and Marty Marion did it for the St. Louis Cardinals in 1942-1944. (Roger Maris, Mickey Mantle and Elston Howard did it between 1961-1963 in the American League.) Wouldn’t that be something?

I talked a little about Jayson Werth the other day, so I won’t dwell on his 2007 season too much. For a guy who played only part-time, he did a nice job, with 55 Runs Created in only 304 plate appearances. That’s actually a better Runs Created per 27 Outs number than Utley: 8.11 to 7.88 … I think he’ll do well as the Phillies new rightfielder in 2008.

Moving along … Wes Helms. If anyone deserves the dubious distinction of being the most disappointing Phillie in 2007, Wes Helms might narrowly get the nod over Adam Eaton. Boy did Helms stink in 2007. After rolling up some interesting numbers playing part-time with the Florida Marlins in 2006 (.390 OBP, .246 ISO, 281 BA/RISP), Helms seemed like a good bet to solidify the gaping hole the Phillies have had at third base ever since Scott Rolen left in 2002. Instead, Helms was a major disaster at the plate. How bad was he?

Well, his .198 BA/RISP was the worst on the Phillies roster .... Sort of. His Isolated Power at the plate plunged from .246 to a paltry .122. He walked just 19 times, seeing his OBP plunge 100 points to .297, the worst on the Phillies roster. He grounded into ten double plays despite playing in less than half of the Phillies games. Never a strong defensive player, Helms was an anchor on the Phillies offense. His 2.73 Runs Created per 27 Outs is the worst on the Phillies roster, narrowly out-doing utility infielder Abraham Nunez (2.74 RC/27). Expect to see the Phillies give Helms another chance, but deal for someone come mid-April if he struggles.

Carlos Ruiz. Many Phillies bloggers have long been fans of Ruiz, even while the media fawned over Chris Coste in 2006, Ruiz quietly took over the catching duties that season and established himself as the Phillies catcher of the future. It’s not hard to see why the Phillies have confidence in Ruiz: he’s a steady player (.308 BA/RISP in 2006, .280 in 2007), who has a good eye (just 49 strikeouts to 42 walks in 2006), and delivers some good hits. True, he grounded into a whopping 17 double plays in 2007, but his 4.27 RC/27 is pretty good for a player who has to concentrate on defense. I also think Ruiz has surprising speed: six steals in seven tries and two triples. His six steals ties him for second amongst N.L. catchers.

Power-Hitting … The Gospel of the Three-Run Home Run is something that most sabremetricians preach. The value of the home run is pretty obvious: in one blow you clear the bases and score a lot of runs. I was reading the new book from Baseball Prospectus about pennant races and I came across the section talking about ’51 Giants Manager Leo Durocher and his preference for dynamic, small ball-ish teams over the long-ball oriented Giants that he took over. Clay Davenport writes:

Managers have often preferred the active teams, the dynamic ones, parly because these teams let the manager do something. The only real exception might be Earl Weaver, who preached the doctrine of the three-run homer. The trouble is that you can’t get a really good offense without home runs … [I]t takes a lot of singles, doubles and walks in sequence for a team to score three runs, whereas it takes just two baserunners and a long fly to score three on a home run.

It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, Pages 267-268. Davenport goes on to note that an analysis of baseball history bears this out: the top 100 dynamic / small ball teams in baseball history scored an average of 711 runs, while the top 100 static / home run-oriented teams in baseball history scored an average of 763 runs. It is easier, more efficient and more successful for teams to rely on the home run rather than the stolen base.

Thank goodness for the Phillies, they’ve got the firepower at the plate to do that. Check out the Phillies adjusted OPS (On-base Percentage Plus Slugging Percentage) (OPS / Lg OPS = Adj. OPS, 100 is average, 100+ is better than average, lower than 100 is worse):

OPS+
1. Philadelphia: 108
2. Colorado: 104
3. Milwaukee: 103
4. Florida: 103
5. N.Y. Mets: 102
6. Atlanta: 102
7. Cincinnati: 102
8. Chicago Cubs: 99
9. St. Louis: 98
10. L.A. Dodgers: 98
11. Houston: 98
12. Arizona: 97
13. Pittsburgh: 97
14. San Diego: 97
15. Washington: 95
16. San Francisco: 94


The Phillies had a pretty powerful offense. A good deal of that was concentrated in their raw power at the plate:

ISO:
1. Milwaukee: .194
2. Philadelphia: .184
3. Florida: .181
4. Cincinnati: .169
5. Arizona: .163
6. Atlanta: .160
7. San Diego: .160
8. Colorado: .157
9. N.Y. Mets: .157
10. Houston: 152
11. Chicago Cubs: .151
12. Pittsburgh: .148
13. Washington: .134
14. San Francisco: .133
15. L.A. Dodgers: .131
16. St. Louis: .131

Who were the Phillies big poppers? Well…

ISO:
Howard: .316
Burrell: .246
Rollins: .235
Utley: .234
Rowand: .206
Dobbs: .179
Barajas: .164
Werth: .161
Victorino: .143
Coste: .140
Iguchi: .138
Ruiz: .138
Helms: .121
Bourn: .101
Nunez: .048

I think it is fairly astonishing that the Phillies lineup features five players with an ISO of .200 or better, including the team’s lead-off hitter. With the exception of Victorino, every one of the Phillies 1-6 hitters was a major threat to go yard. In fact, if you look at the N.L. stats for 2007, the Phillies hitters rank 2nd (Howard), 9th (Burrell), 14th (Rollins), 16th (Utley) and 25th (Rowand) in the entire N.L. in ISO. That means that five of the twenty-five most powerful bats were found in red pinstripes in 2007 … By the way, these five players were also all in the top 22 in terms of Runs Created per 27 Outs as well: Utley (2nd), Howard (10th), Burrell (13th), J.Roll (19th) and Rowand (22nd) … Look at the home runs totals: Howard: 47, Rollins & Burrell: 30, Rowand: 27, Utley: 22. The five combined for 156 home runs, 519 RBI, 519 Runs Scored, 183 Doubles, 840 Hits, 367 Walks, and 541 Runs Created. Let’s talk about the focal point of the Phillies offense: Ryan Howard.

Ryan Howard had a career season in 2006, winning the MVP award on his way to clubbing 58 Home Runs, 149 RBI, drawing 108 walks (37 intentional), and having 138 Runs Created. Howard literally powered the Phillies into contention before the strain of being pitched around nearly every game caught up to Howard and the Phillies fell by the wayside. Howard continued to get Barry Bonds treatment in 2007, being intentionally walked 35 times. Still, despite missing several games, Howard managed to hit 47 Home Runs, 136 RBI and have 117 Runs Created. Howard’s .316 ISO was second to just Prince Fielder (.330).

Howard’s bat is powerful. Check out his 2005-2007 ISO totals:

2005: .278
2006: .346
2007: .316
’05 – ’07: .320

Ryan Howard is tailor-made for the Phillies power offense. He’s not a fast guy: one stolen base in his career, which must have been an accident, and three triples. In 2006-2007 he hit 105 Home Runs, but only hit 52 doubles or triples. Howard sits at the plate, milks the count, and makes the pitcher pay when he makes a mistake. His 72 IBB in 1,352 plate appearances in 2006-2007 means that 5% of the time, the opposition intentionally walks Ryan Howard rather than take a chance on pitching to him. That’s astonishing. Chase Utley, as good as he is, has only been intentionally walked eight times in his career.

Howard is a testament to the wisdom of the three-home run strategy. He’s one of the best RBI guys in the league while hitting o.k. with runners in scoring position:

BA/RISP
2005: .241
2006: .256
2007: .282

It’s the long ball and drawing walks. Even without the free passes, Howard is very good at drawing walks. His walks per plate appearance are very good:

BB/PA:
2005: .094
2006: .153
2007: .165

Howard’s .165 BB/PA ranks him third in the N.L. in 2007. If you throw out the IBB’s …

BB/PA - IBB:
2005: .073
2006: .106
2007: .117

That’s still phenomenal. In sum, Howard is a major force in the Phillies offense and one of the finest hitters in baseball. In the N.L., his status as the premiere cleanup hitter is only equaled by Albert Pujols and, perhaps, Prince Fielder. Nobody is more the focal point of a team’s offense than Howard and he carries the load quite well.

Right behind Howard, posting some surprising numbers, is Pat Burrell. I’ve long been a fan of Burrell’s work and a defender of him. Perhaps no member of the Phillies roster gets ripped on more or is the subject of more trade talk and speculation.

Burrell’s sin, quite simply, is that he failed to become the next Mike Schmidt. Since Schmidt retired the Phillies have been eagerly looking for a successor to his mantle of team leader and face of the franchise. Scott Rolen failed to live up to expectations and he was dealt in 2002. Burrell stepped into the breach that season and played phenomenal baseball, hitting 37 home runs, 39 doubles, 116 RBI while hitting .282. Burrell finished the 2002 season with a .262 ISO and when teamed with Jim Thome in 2003 Spring Training people, including Schmidt, speculated that the pair would combine to hit 100 home runs that season. The Phillies inked Burrell to a massive six-year deal that season. 2002, as it turned out, was a season that created unrealistic expectations amongst fans.

Instead, Burrell crashed to earth in 2003, hitting .209, seeing his home run totals crash to just 21, and his RBI’s drop to 64. It was a disaster of a season that haunted Burrell’s career. He struggled to get back into form in 2004, hitting 24 home runs and 84 RBI, but he hadn’t recovered his power stroke. After a .195 ISO in 2003, Burrell climbed back to .199 in 2004.

In 2005, Burrell made his comeback, hitting 32 home runs, 27 doubles and 117 RBI. His ISO climbed back to .223, below his exceptional 2002 season, but an improvement over ’03 – ’04. Burrell hit another 29 home runs and 95 RBI in 2006, but he was emerging as a changed hitter. Injuries depleted his speed. After posting 29 doubles in 2001 – his first full season – and 39 in 2002, he hit another 31 while struggling in 2003, before hitting a paltry 17 in 2004. For the first time, Burrell hit more home runs than doubles. In 2005 he hit just 27 doubles and just 24 in 2006. Removed for defensive replacements often, Burrell was actually benched several times in 2006.

Burrell was evolving, seeing injuries take his speed and defensive abilities away. Burrell became a walks-and-home runs hitter, skilled at getting on base. Burrell drew 99 walks in 2005 and 98 in 2006. In 2007 Burrell out-did himself, drawing a whopping 114 walks. For the first time in his career he nearly achieved a 1:1 walk/strikeout ratio. Pat Burrell’s .191 BB/PA ranks him first amongst N.L. hitters.

Once more Burrell had more home runs than doubles – 30 vs. 26 – and once more he hit 90+ RBI with 97. Despite the limited playing time he posted 96 Runs Created. He may not be the player that the fans thought he would be in 2002, but Burrell has evolved into a brutally tough out. The last four seasons Burrell has seen milking counts for bases on balls. After ranking sixth in the N.L. in pitches per plate appearance in 2004, Burrell has ranked second, first and second in the last three seasons.

That choosey, grinding style helps Burrell pluck out the best pitches to clobber. Look at how his isolated power has rebounded.

ISO:
2002: .262
2003: .195
2004: .199
2005: .223
2006: .244
2007: .246

Burrell is consistently one of the best hitters in baseball. Yes, he might be a liability in the running game and defensively, but Pat Burrell is a major weapon in the Phillies offense and they would be hard-pressed to replace him if he is traded. I expect Burrell to play out this, the last year of his six-year deal that will pay him close to $14 million in 2008, and then leave the Phillies and the N.L. to be a DH in the American League in 2009.

Aaron Rowand is no longer a Phillie but he gave the team a good year in his walk year. As much as Burrell is a hard-nosed guy willing to work the count, Rowand is a free swinger who made a lot of nice choices in 2007. His 27 home runs and 89 RBI, along with a .374 OBP and .206 ISO were major improvements over his atrocious .321 OBP and .163 ISO in 2006.

I’m not sorry to see Rowand go because his defensive reputation is over-stated and he’s too free with his hacks at the plate. I think the San Francisco Giants are going to be bitterly disappointed with the player they are getting. Rowand is too inconsistent a player. He relies on getting hits and not drawing walks to get on base. He runs hot-and-cold in the power game:

ISO
2004: .234 (as White Sox)
2005: .137 (as White Sox)
2006: .163
2007: .206

He’s a free swinger who will struggle to produce runs in a park not nearly as friendly to hitters as Citizens Bank Ballpark. Good luck, Aaron. You’re going to need it.

The Bench … The bench turned in a nice performance in 2007. I’m going to incorporate my discussions of Jayson Werth and Michael Bourn here because they weren’t starters, but they turned in a darn nice jobs and was the Phillies best clutch hitter and base-stealer respectively.

The acquisition of Tadahito Iguchi was an important moment for the Phillies in 2007. When Utley went down a major cog in the Phillies offense was on the DL, but Pat Gillick did a nice job raiding a team that was clearly a seller at the trading deadline and prying away a good player for virtually nothing. Iguchi turned in a nice performance for the Phillies, stealing six of seven bases, hitting ten doubles, posting a .361 OBP and playing some good second base (a 1.000 Fielding Percentage in 265 innings of work!). This was one of Gillick’s best moves.

The Phillies cut ties with Abraham Nunez this off-season and I’m certainly not sorry to see Nunez go. In 2007 his isolated power at the plate (.048) was worse than Adam Eaton’s (.065), Freddy Garcia’s (.059), and J.D. Durbin’s (.053). You can be a light-hitter, but not that light! Additionally, Nunez was terrible with runners in scoring position (.217 BA/RISP in 2007). Offensively, he really wasn’t much of an upgrade from having a pitcher at the plate. His Wins Shares Above Bench have been -4 each of the last two seasons. Offensively, he has a 0.6 Batting Win Share for 2006 & 2007 combined.

Also gone is Rod Barajas, the Phillies catcher who went from being the starter to the backup as Carlos Ruiz proved that he could handle the Phillies pitchers like a veteran. Like Nunez, I never much cared for Barajas. He hit .129 with runners in scoring position, which was actually lower than Wes Helms. (Helms had many more at-bats, so he wins the award for worse clutch hitter.) Barajas had some pop in his bat (.163 ISO) and he got on base (.352 OBP, 21 walks against just 24 strikeouts), but he was a drag on the Phillies offense and his defensive abilities don’t overshadow his offensive limitations.

Finally, we come to Greg Dobbs. Anyone notice what a good job Dobbs did in 2007? He had just 358 plate appearances, but he clubbed ten home runs, twenty doubles and four triples. His .179 ISO was good and he got on base a decent amount (.330 OBP). He was 0 WSAB, but he showed real versatility, playing 418 innings at third base, 97 at first base, 82 in left field, 10 in right field, and 7 at second base. I hope Dobbs gets a chance with the Phillies in 2008, but I suspect he’ll be done.

Alright, that’s the individual players … In the end I think 2007 was a spectacularly successful season for the Phillies, their most successful campaign since 1993 and easily their second-best of the last quarter century. The Phillies erased one of the largest leads in baseball history that late in the season and came out of nowhere to upend the heavily favored Mets. They shook off a terrible start and managed to win their first division title and playoff slot in 14 years. Any way that you slice it, 2007 was a big moment for the Phillies.

Is the fact that they got swept by the Rockies cause for concern? Not at all. Making the playoffs was a victory and there is no disgrace in losing to such a formidable team. The Rockies 2007 might just be the most impressive sustained drive of success in baseball history. The Phillies were a team of destiny whose wave crested too soon. I think we’ll look back in 2007 as being a pivotal moment for the Phillies, a moment where they turned a corner, got a taste for success and decided they liked it.

If you look down the phillies roster you see a bunch of young guys – Carlos Ruiz, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins are 28. Ryan Howard is 27. Ryan Madson, Brett Myers and Shane Victorino are 26. Cole Hamels is 23. The team greybeard is Pat Burrell at 30.

This is an absurdly young team that is also a veteran team. They’ve been in pennant races in 2005, 2006 and 2007 and they know what it takes to win and make the post-season. With Myers and Hamels teamed in the rotation and Brad Lidge closing, I think the Phillies pitching will be better in 2008. Remember that the strength of the team going into those final weeks was actually their bullpen, not their offense, which ranked seventh in OPS in September, just .010 off the N.L. average for the month. With Myers, Madson, Romero, Gordon and Geary closing down the opposition, the Phillies would have failed to make the playoffs.

Simply put, this is going to be a team that is going to contend in 2008, in 2009 and 2010. I’m not saying that this is the new golden age for the Phillies, but we might be entering a Silver Age for the team of sustained success, playoff berths and possibly championships. The 2008 N.L. will be wide-open. Remember that the best record in the N.L. in 2007 was just 90-72. The 2008 Phillies can do better than that and their adversaries haven’t made appreciable strides to match the Phillies. The Marlins are a wreck with Willis and Cabrera gone, and the Nationals will remain a substandard team for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile the Braves and Mets have talent and firepower, but they aren’t as deeply talented as the Phillies.

In case you couldn’t tell, this whole series was probably a month or so late. I’ve been busy and probably bit off more than I could chew in writing this. I’m taking a sabbatical until January, then I’ll be back rating the new Phillies (including Geoff Jenkins) and talking a little about 2008. Happy New Year!!!

Labels: Base-Stealing, Bourn, Burrell, Helms, Howard, Power-Hitting, Rollins, Rowand, Ruiz, Speed, Utley, Victorino, Werth

This Phillies have had a lot of luck over the last few seasons finding rookies to step up and make contributions to the team in unexpected ways. Ryan Howard stepped into the breach and became the 2005 Rookie of the Year. Chris Coste came out of nowhere – actually North Dakota – to make the majors after a decade in the minor leagues and gave the Phillies some timely hitting down the stretch. Michael Bourn? His performance last season is legendary around A Citizens Blog: 18 of 19 stolen bases.

So who is the next Michael Bourn? Two candidates emerge:

Chris Roberson. I already talked about Roberson replacing Bourn a few weeks ago. Roberson and Bourn are very similar players in many respects. Roberson, the Phillies first-round pick in the 2001 Draft, was likely to make the Phillies roster as the Phils fifth outfielder until Bourn impressed the Phillies brass enough they decided to take a chance on him. Now with Bourn gone, Roberson has his chance back.

Roberson, currently playing with the Naranjeros de Hermosillo (the Hermosillo Oranges? – my Spanish is a little rusty) in the Winter Liga Mexicana del Pacifico (Mexican Winter League) has a chance of approaching Bourn’s output. He’s fast – 19 steals in 28 tries with Triple-A Ottawa in 2007, and 25 steals in 34 tries with Triple-A Scranton in 2006 – and swings a pretty good bat: .349 OBP in ’06, .313 OBP in ’07.

Bonus points for Roberson: he’s a native of Oakland, California, just like Jimmy Rollins.

The other candidate for Bourn-status is Greg Golson, the Phillies first-round pick in the 2004 Draft. Golson is an interesting case if he actually manages to make it to Philadelphia. Basically, he has no concept about working counts and drawing walks, and would therefore have to be utilized exclusively as a defensive replacement / pinch-runner. While Golson hit .285 with the Clearwater Threshers in 2007, his OBP was just .322. He managed to draw just 21 walks and struck-out 124 times.

Promoted to Double-A Reading, Golson struck-out 49 times in 153 At-Bats. Okay, that’s bad. Even worse – he managed to draw just two walks. Yes, he drew two walks in 37 games and struck-out 49 times. That’s atrocious and a virtual guarantee that Golson won’t make it in the majors. His track-record is that he’s a free-swinger. Golson struck-out 107 times with Single-A Lakewood in 2006, walking just 19 times. Golson also struck-out 53 times with Clearwater and walked 11 times in 2006.

The pity is that Golson’s got tools. In 2006 he stole thirty bases in forty tries, hit six triples and thirteen home runs. In 2007 he took thirty of thirty-eight bases, hit 15 home runs and five triples. Were it not for his chronic inability to get on base consistently, Golson would be a good bet to make the Phillies roster later in the season. Is there hope for Golson? Sure, he’s stolen all eight of the bases he’s tried for and he’s hit three triples thus far in the Arizona Winter League. Good. He’s also drawn eight walks in 27 games! Cutting that K/BB ratio down from 5-to-1 to 3-to-1 isn’t great news, but it is improvement.

If I had to place money on Roberson or Golson, I'd put it on Roberson, who might benefit more from the advice and counsel of First Base coach Davey Lopes and becomes an impressive base-stealing threat himself. I'm sure Roberson won't go 18 for 19 in steals next season, but he'll do well and might be a big help for the Phillies in 2008.

Season in Review is tentatively scheduled for publishing on Thursday or Friday. Stay Tuned.

Labels: Base-Stealing, Bourn, Golson, Roberson, Speed

Nobody at the beginning of the 2007 would have predicted that Jimmy Rollins would emerge as the National League MVP. Even on the Phillies own roster I assumed that Ryan Howard, the 2006 MVP, or Chase Utley would be the Phillies prime contender for the award. Rollins was the Phillies lead-off hitter, their speed guy, the guy who briefly made a run on Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak.

Rollins 2007 MVP award is the product of a lot of intangibles. This might be the first MVP award given because a promise was kept: Rollins spring training statement that the Phillies were the team to beat in the N.L. East, which increasingly looked ridiculous when they got off to a 3-10 start, came true down the stretch as the Phillies erased the Mets seven game lead.

But the numbers on Jimmy Rollins are impressive. What really impresses me about J.Roll is how he’s progressively refined his game, season after season, to become a better and better player. It’s that evolution of skill that I’d like to examine here a little today.

Jimmy Rollins broke into the major leagues in 2000, playing 14 games for the Phillies at the close of the season. Rollins play helped to oust Desi Relaford from the Phillies lineup as starting shortstop and J.Roll was on his way.

In 2001, J.Roll played his first season and scored 97 runs, hit 29 doubles, 12 triples, and 14 home runs. J.Roll stole 46 bases in 54 tries. However, his .323 OBP was extremely low for a lead-off hitter and he struck-out 108 times, or 15% of his plate appearances. The next two seasons, J.Roll posted similar numbers:

2002: 82 runs scored, 33 doubles, 10 triples, 11 home runs, 31 steals in 44 tries, .306 OBP, .146 K/PA (strike-outs per plate appearance) …

2003: 85 runs scored, 42 doubles, 6 triples, 8 home runs, 20 steals in 32 tries, .320 OBP, .164 K/PA …

Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF).
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.

At the close of J.Roll’s 2003 campaign, there were a lot of grumblings that he struck-out too much and was too focused on being a speed guy with power than in being an effective lead-off hitter. Tellingly, the Phillies had dropped J.Roll to the bottom of the order, having him hit sixth, seventh or even eighth and giving the lead-off job to rookie Marlon Byrd.

In the off-season, J.Roll, a West Coast native, worked with former San Diego Padre Tony Gwynn to improve his swing. The aim was to cut-down on strike-outs. Gwynn was a terrific teacher. The Hall of Famer’s career OBP was .388 and his career batting average was a robust .338. Gwynn drew 790 walks in his career, a decent total, but struck-out just 434 times in 10,232 plate appearances. That’s just 4% of the time. In contrast, J.Roll had 331 strike-outs in 2,169 plate appearances entering 2004. Gwynn and J.Roll worked to make contact more often and put the ball into play, not to be more patient at the plate and to draw more walks.
At the start of the 2004 campaign, J.Roll once against started at the bottom on the Phillies batting order, hitting seventh on Opening Day against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He continued to languish at the bottom of the order for the months of April and May before Byrd’s struggles drove him out of the Phillies lineup and handed J.Roll the lead-off job once more. Secure as the Phillies lead-off hitter once again, Rollins hit lead-off for the rest of the 2004 season.

The effect on his numbers was electric: suddenly J.Roll saw his strike-outs drop from .152 K/PA to .100 in 2004 (73 in 725 PA). J.Roll’s runs scored went from 85 to 119. His OBP improved to .348. He hit 14 home runs, 43 doubles, 12 triples and stole 30 of 39 bases. J.Roll finally broke 100+ Runs Created for the first time in his career with 109. His previous high had been 96 in 2001.

In 2005 and 2006 J.Roll once more posted similar numbers. His walk totals never improved during this time period, but his strike-outs never approached his pre-2004 totals:

K/PA
2001: .150
2002: .146
2003: .164
2004: .100
2005: .097
2006: .106

Look at the corresponding shift in Rollins Runs Created per Game:

RC/27
2001: 5.1
2002: 3.8
2003: 4.2
2004: 6.0
2005: 5.6
2006: 5.9

Rollins closed off the 2005 season with a 31-game hitting streak wherein he hit .386 (.435 OBP), 17 doubles, 4 triples, 3 home runs, scored 28 runs, and stole 13 of 14 bases. He began the 2006 season half-way to DiMaggio’s magical mark of 56 games. Sadly, he went 0-for-4 in the third game of the season, so the batting streak died at 33 games.

Something in Rollins as the 2006 season wore on. Always a speedy player with some pop in his bat (the comparison to Rickey Henderson was obvious), J.Roll began to hit with more power as time went on. He hit 16 home runs after the All-Star Game in Pittsburgh, which was more than he had hit in an entire season before. His slugging percentage was an astonishing .580 in August of 2006. Partly Rollins was feeding off teammate Ryan Howard, well on his way to an MVP season himself, but J.Roll was evolving into a different player.

In the 2007 off-season J.Roll boldly predicted that the Phillies, not the mighty Mets or the complacent Braves, were the team to beat in the N.L. East. Observers brushed off J.Roll’s words and mocked him. How could the Mets, loaded as they were with bats like Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, David Wright and Jose Reyes, lose the division? Plus, the Braves, the team that had dominated the division for over a decade, were poised to come back into the mix. What chance did the Phillies have?

Additionally, J.Roll wasn’t thought off as the best player at his position in the division, let alone being the best player in the league. 2006 Rookie of the year Hanley Ramirez and the Mets Reyes were thought to be #1 and #2 amongst shortstops in the N.L. East. Reyes, who stole 64 bases with a .354 OBP in 2006, was thought of as perhaps the best player in the division and key to the Mets hopes of winning the N.L. East again in 2007.

And J.Roll delivered while Ramirez languished on a losing team and Reyes found himself ensnared in a nightmare in Queens. As the Mets sank, losing 12 of their last 17 games, Reyes hit .187, scored just 11 runs and was caught stealing three of his five attempts. J.Roll, as the Phillies won 13 of those 17 games, hit .309 with 3 home runs, 3 triples, 3 doubles, 12 RBI, 14 runs scored and he was successful in all ten of his stolen base attempts. At the end of the season, J.Roll had set career highs for hits with 212, runs scored with 139, home runs with 30, triples with 20, RBI with 94, Runs Created with 135, Slugging Percentage with .531, and Batting Average with .296. He also equaled his highest stolen base total with 41.

For all of that he was the 2007 National League MVP, winning by 17 points in the closest vote since 1991, when the Braves Terry Pendleton beat out the Pittsburgh Pirates Barry Bonds by 15 points.

It was a terrific season and J.Roll was deserving of the award. With Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins, the award has finally been wrestled away from the clutches of Barry Bonds and his chemically-enhanced body. Incidentally, notice that three Phillies are amongst the top eight vote getters in the MVP balloting: Ryan Howard finished fifth in the voting with 112 votes and Chase Utley finished eighth with 89. Aaron Rowand got three votes and thus finished 22nd in the MVP voting.

I’d also like to note that J.Roll did a terrific job in interviews crediting the success of the Phillies as a team and stating that he wants his team to find success more than himself. What a terrific leader.

So what are the chances that a Phillie could win the award once more in 2008? Pretty good actually. Chase Utley was a viable MVP candidate as well when he went down. Like J.Roll he plays terrific defense at a challenging position, and like J.Roll he’s a tough hitter who can run and hit for power: 48 doubles, 22 home runs and 103 RBI despite missing a month with a broken hand. I could easily see Utley winning the award in 2008, giving the Phillies a run reminiscent of when Jose Canseco, Mark McGwire and Walt Weiss won the A.L. Rookie of the Year award in 1986, 1987 and 1988 respectively for the Oakland A’s. Along with Utley there is also the chance that J.Roll or Ryan Howard could capture the crown again. How many teams are lucky enough to have not one or two, but three viable MVP candidates?

Can I also comment on the institutional bias against pitchers winning the MVP award?

Back in 1952, when the Phillies Robin Roberts went 28-7, there was no Cy Young award, so Roberts had to content himself with being narrowly beaten out for the MVP award by Hank Sauer of the Chicago Cubs. Roberts was spectacular in 1952, throwing a complete game in 30 of his 37 starts and finishing the season with an ERA+ of 141 (Roberts ERA was 2.59, while the league’s ERA was 3.66. 3.66 / 2.59 = 141). And yet Sauer beat him out for the MVP 226 to 211. Roberts, whose run as the best pitcher in baseball went from 1950 to 1955, began to decline in 1956, the year the Cy Young Award was first handed out. Because Roberts, who might have won as many as three or four Cy Youngs between 1950 – 1955, never won a Cy Young he’s never got the recognition he’s deserved from baseball historians. Being the best pitcher in an era known for batting will do that.

But baseball is biased against pitchers winning the MVP. Even when Randy Johnson was winning his five Cy Young Awards, he was barely a factor in the MVP voting, finishing sixth in 1995 with the Seattle Mariners. The last pitcher to win the MVP was Dennis Eckersley in 1992, when he saved 51 games for the Oakland A’s. A pitcher hasn’t won the N.L. MVP since Bob Gibson did it in 1968. There is a sense in baseball that they ought to stick to “their” award.

Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb turned in terrific performances in 2007. Each was a major factor in their teams contending in the N.L. West. Without Peavy, the Padres would have been a .500 team. Without Webb, the D-backs probably would have been a sub-.500 team. And yet Peavy finished seventh and Webb seventeenth in the MVP voting. Chipper Jones and Prince Fielder turned in nice seasons with their teams, but were they really more valuable than Peavy or Webb? I doubt it.

Unfortunately I don’t like how the Phillies off-season is unfolding. Mike Lowell is gone, back to the Boston Red Sox, and the Phillies pitching options have dried up now that Curt Schilling has returned to the Red Sox and the White Sox dealt Jon Garland to the Anaheim Angels. While the Phillies have improved the bullpen, they still need to add another starting pitcher to help Cole Hamels, Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer. I suspect that the Phillies might offer some prospects to the White Sox for Pitcher Jose Contreras, or they might attempt to deal for Third Baseman Joe Crede, but the Phillies need to make a move soon before they find themselves pressured into doing something foolish like offering $50 million to Kyle Lohse or Carlos Silva. A starting pitcher or a third baseman. The Phillies have to land one or the other or both to make this a successful off-season.

Torii Hunter might set the market next week and sign a deal that will determine how much Andruw Jones and Aaron Rowand get to ask for. I think that Hunter will ink a deal with the White Sox and stay in the A.L. Central, while the Texas Rangers will make a run at Jones and Rowand. I guess there is always a chance of the Phillies re-signing Rowand, but that is pretty remote, especially if the Phillies swing a deal for pitching and try to lock up their young stars (Hamels and Howard) to long-term deals.

Monday: Season In Review, Fielding. Until then, enjoy your Turkey.

Labels: Base-Stealing, Fielding, Howard, Marlins, Mets, Power-Hitting, Rollins, Rowand, Utley

With the trade of Michael Bourn to the Astros as part of the Brad Lidge deal and with Aaron Rowand’s near-certain departure in free agency, the Phillies 2008 Outfield is going to look very different than it did in 2007. Over in Left Field will be Pat Burrell once more, while Shane Victorino will probably keep his current slot in Right Field because of his terrific arm. Jayson Werth, the talented former Dodger who hit .298 with 8 home runs and 49 RBI in limited action in 2007, will likely get the Center Field slot. Greg Dobbs, who had 55 RBI in equally limited playing time in 2007, seems slated to be the Phillies fourth outfielder and primary pinch-hitting weapon.

The Phillies need a new reserve outfielder to back Dobbs, who played 86 games in the infield in 2007 and seems likely to get significant time there in 2008 as well. The speedy Bourn filled the role to a T, entering numerous games as a defensive substitution and being a pinch runner 35 times. Bourn’s speed was electrifying.

Enter the Phillies newest speed man, Chris Roberson.

Roberson, the Phillies ninth-round selection in the 2001 Draft, seemed destined to be the Phillies fifth outfielder in 2007, but Charlie Manuel and the Phillies high command gave the job to Bourn in a surprise move. Roberson returned to Ottawa to play for the Lynx, the Phillies Triple-A affiliate in the International League. Roberson played well: hitting .266 (.313 OBP), scoring 64 runs with 48 RBI in 113 games. Roberson drew 31 walks, hit 21 doubles and 3 triples, and stole 19 of 28 bases. Needing help with Bourn and Victorino down with injuries, the Phillies recalled Roberson and utilized him for several games.

With Bourn gone, it seems likely that Roberson will get some playing time in 2008. The question is: Can Chris Roberson be Michael Bourn?

Let’s look at Bourn’s resume: in 2006 he played with the Phillies Double-A and Triple-A affiliates. In Double-A Reading, Bourn had a .350 OBP and stole 30 of 34 bases he attempted. In Triple-A Scranton (the Phillies previous Triple-A affiliate), Bourn had a .368 OBP and stole 15 of 16 bases. When he joined the Phillies in 2007, Bourn pretty much held to that line of performance, with a .348 OBP and 18 of 19 steals.

Roberson’s performance in the minors hasn’t been so good. In contrast to Bourn in 2006, Roberson’s Triple-A performance in 2007 was fifty-five points lower and his stolen base success rate was much lower: 68% to 94%. Roberson did better in 2006 with Scranton: hitting .292 (.349 OBP) and stealing 25 of 34 bases (73%).

It seems to me, looking at Roberson’s minor league stats, that he used to run more before the Phillies minor league instructors put a stop to it. In 2005, with the Reading Phillies, he stole 34 of 48 bases. In 2004, with the Clearwater Threshers, he stole 16 of 28 bases. In 2003, as a member of the Lakewood Blue Claws, he stole 59 of 75 bases. In 2002, as a member of the Batavia Muckdogs, he stole 17 of 25 bases. His steal rate has consistently been about 70-75% and his OBP has been a solid .350 - .360. Those are good stats and auger well for his performance in 2008.

Davey Lopes, the Phillies first base coach and designated speed instructor, will no doubt work with Roberson in 2008 Spring Training and develop his technique. Perhaps Chris Roberson won’t achieve the same number of wow plays that Bourn did in 2007, but he’ll be a solid runner and will give the Phillies another terrific threat to take second base.

Labels: Base-Stealing, Bourn, Outfield, Roberson