Saturday, August 07, 2004
Individual stats… (team v. team, later…)
Starters: (GPA / ISO / RC27)
Thome: .334 / .340 / 8.61
Abreu: .332 / .226 / 9.48
Bell: .271 / .171 / 5.43
Burrell: .283 / .196 / 6.20
Rollins: .250 / .127 / 5.05
Polanco: .241 / .095 / 4.12
Lieberthal: .248 / .169 / 4.23
Byrd: .207 / .075 / 2.79
Bench: (GPA / ISO / RC27)
Michaels: .253 / .083 / 4.71
Glanville: .203 / .054 / 3.02
Utley: .261 / .221 / 5.23
Pratt: .219 / .037 / 2.73
Perez: .241 / .205 / 4.47
What the stats mean:
GPA (Gross Productive Average): (1.8 * .OBP + .SLG) / 4 = .GPA
ISO (Isolated Power): .SLG - .BA = .ISO
RC27 (Runs Created per 27 Outs): ESPN’s formula for Runs Created is simply too complex for me to replicate easily here. This is their stat based on what a hypothetical team of nine of the same player would score.
Byrd has played four games in his return engagement from Scranton. Thus far: 3 for 14 (.214 BA), with two runs and two RBIs. Too soon to tell. Let’s see if he starts drawing walks. He has none thus far.
Misc. thoughts: … Jimmy Rollins hasn’t drawn a walk since July 23. That’s 56 AB’s without a walk … On the plus, side, he’s gotten hits in 15 of his last 17 games, so he has been getting on base, but the question is if he’ll continue to do so consistently … Thome has 6 RBI’s in his last 17 games, and hasn’t had a multi-RBI game since July 17. Meanwhile, Burrell's been hitting .221 since the beginning of June (so his trip to the DL might be a blessing in disguise ... ), etc. Yeah, I’d be nervous right now if I'm Ed Wade and Larry Bowa. This team is starting to seriously slip at the plate. Don't be fooled by the fact that they are in second right now. This team will finish third.
Thursday, August 05, 2004
Good to see the Phils win two from the Padres. This is a team we are competing against for the wildcard, so it is good to get some traction. I wonder if the division might be a lost cause. The way the Braves are playing, nobody is going to catch them.
Sorry for infrequency of posts but moving out of my apartment is going slowly. Check back for more on Monday.
Monday, August 02, 2004
Hmmm... Check out Aaron Gleeman's analysis of the dealbetween the Red Sox / Nomar / Twins / Cubs ... lots of people are involved ... just read Aaron's article.
Meanwhile, Monday's Inquirer is replete with talk about the imminent demise of Bowa's coaching career, as well as the distraction it has been for the team. Robert W. Keidel, a professor at Drexel, wrote an interesting piece suggesting that Bowa and his temper are better suited to coaching football instead of baseball. I doubt the Phils will fire Bowa in the regular season, but if they failed to make the playoffs (which is appearing increasingly likely), then I'd count Bowa out as the first manager axed in October.
Sunday, August 01, 2004
Burrell: (GPA / ISO)
April: .276 / .132
May: .372/ .334
June: .245/ .170
July: .248 / .164
Season: .283 / .200
The Phils are fifth in NL ZR at .854 … Baseball Tonight mentioned that the Red Sox wanted to improve their defense, which is why they did the deal to get Gold Glovers Doug Mientkiewicz and Orlando Cabrera from the Twins. How bad are the Sox at D? Dead last. Thirtieth out of thirty: .818 ZR, narrowly worse than the Pirates NL-worst .825 ZR. It is going to be weird seeing Nomar (Nomah!) in a Cubbies uniform, but I think this deal will make the Sox better.
I’ve been keeping track of walks per plate appearance. It’s an interesting stat. I like to see guys walk often and it seems like Abreu, Thome, Burrell and Micheals excel at it … btw, Barry Bonds leads the majors with a mind-boggling .373 BB/PA:
Micheals: .185 (Michaels would be 3rd or 4th in NL if he had enough PA's)
Bench / Scranton:
Alright, I’m off to bed …
"I think we've improved our club," Wade said [refering to the team's off-season deals]. "Now it's up to us to move forward and play to our capabilities."
I nodded my head, reading that, ready to interject with a comment that the problem was that the Phils management hadn't done enough to keep pace with our competition for the playoffs, but the article proceeded to make my point for me. The Cubs-Red Sox-Expos-Twins Nomar, et al deal was a good example of the kind of risky, aggressive decision-making other clubs make that the Phils are reluctant to follow. I'm not saying that the Phils need to be so aggressive (prudence is better than rashness), but the team's caution runs the risk of becoming paralysis. Do we want to be like the Mariners? A team that failed to make deals in '02 and '03 and then ran out of steam against the A's, a team that seems to thrive on late-season deals? Don't mortgage the future, but make some informed decisions in the here-and-now:
- Polanco won't be back in '04 and Utley is playing well, plus the A's and Cards are interested in him. Couldn't the Phils have gotten something for him?
- If the Phils are prepared to return Byrd to center and have Jason Michaels play the role of the 4th outfielder, why not deal Glanville for anything?
Those are my thoughts on the matter. Well, let's see what we can do against the Padres...