Thursday, January 24, 2008
Adios, Jon Lieber
It flew under the radar but one of the best and most interesting moves made by any MLB team this off-season was the Cubs decision to sign former Phillies (and former Cubs) hurler Jon Lieber to a 1-year deal worth $3.5 million dollars. After the blockbuster Tigers – Marlins deal that moved Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera to Motown and the unconsumated ménage a troi with the Twins and the Red Sox and Yankees over Johan Santana, the Lieber signing, as quiet as it was, might well turn out to be the most significant deal of the 2007-2008 off-season.
When Jon Lieber signed with the Phillies in 2004 I applauded the move, though I had reservations about Lieber’s health. Lieber, in his three years with the Phillies largely did what I figured he’d do: he didn’t surrender a lot of walks (1.69 BB/9 in ’05, 1.28 in ’06 and 2.54 in ’07), he was pretty good about home runs (1.29 HR/9 from ’05 to ’07), and he got lots and lots of ground balls (681 groundballs to 524 flyballs, or a 1.30 G/F ratio, between ’05 and ’07). The high number of grounders would be the key to Lieber’s success in Philadelphia I felt after seeing what pitching at Citizens Bank Ballpark did to a number of the Phillies pitchers.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
DER – Defense Efficiency Ratio: (Batters Faced – (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) / (Batters Faced – (Home Runs, Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) How often fielders convert balls put into play into outs.
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
Lieber never really enjoyed the success that I thought he’d have in the red pinstripes. The quality of the defense behind him was never particularly good:
DER
2005: .722
2006: .697
2007: .672
Consistently, Lieber’s defense-neutral statistics showed that he threw better than his numbers indicated:
FIP / FIP compared to ERA
2005: 4.13 / -0.07
2006: 4.60 / -0.33
2007: 3.82 / -0.91
After being utilized as a long-reliever and trade bait after the Phillies acquired Adam Eaton and Freddy Garica, Lieber ended up being pressed into the rotation before he too went down. I think he pitched rather well: Lieber’s 3.82 FIP would have made him a top-12 pitcher in 2007. And, not that anyone noticed, but Lieber’s June 9th outing against the Kansas City Royals had the best game score* of any outing by an N.L. pitcher in 2007: Lieber notched a game score of 92 that night on his way to striking out eleven while scattering three hits in a nine-inning shutout.
* a state Bill James came up with assigning an overall number to a pitcher’s outing while evaluating how they pitched.
Instead, his pedestrian ERA in '07, age (38 in 2008), and arm trouble (missed 2003 season with surgery) resulted in having to take a 50% pay cut to return to Chicago. Re-signing him was apparently never in the Phillies plans.
So what are the Cubs getting? A pretty good #4 pitcher: the Bill James Handbook says that Lieber will go 10-8 with a 4.04 ERA in 2008, which I think is pretty reasonable and in-line with Lieber’s career stats. He could end up being a very durable starter for the Cubs and a valuable edition for the playoffs since he’s had some experience, playing with the Yankees in 2004.
Good luck in the Windy City, Jon Lieber. He might be a key piece of the puzzle for the Cubs as they gun for their first World Series title in 100 years. I'll miss seeing him pitcher for the Phillies.
(3) comments
When Jon Lieber signed with the Phillies in 2004 I applauded the move, though I had reservations about Lieber’s health. Lieber, in his three years with the Phillies largely did what I figured he’d do: he didn’t surrender a lot of walks (1.69 BB/9 in ’05, 1.28 in ’06 and 2.54 in ’07), he was pretty good about home runs (1.29 HR/9 from ’05 to ’07), and he got lots and lots of ground balls (681 groundballs to 524 flyballs, or a 1.30 G/F ratio, between ’05 and ’07). The high number of grounders would be the key to Lieber’s success in Philadelphia I felt after seeing what pitching at Citizens Bank Ballpark did to a number of the Phillies pitchers.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
DER – Defense Efficiency Ratio: (Batters Faced – (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) / (Batters Faced – (Home Runs, Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) How often fielders convert balls put into play into outs.
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
Lieber never really enjoyed the success that I thought he’d have in the red pinstripes. The quality of the defense behind him was never particularly good:
DER
2005: .722
2006: .697
2007: .672
Consistently, Lieber’s defense-neutral statistics showed that he threw better than his numbers indicated:
FIP / FIP compared to ERA
2005: 4.13 / -0.07
2006: 4.60 / -0.33
2007: 3.82 / -0.91
After being utilized as a long-reliever and trade bait after the Phillies acquired Adam Eaton and Freddy Garica, Lieber ended up being pressed into the rotation before he too went down. I think he pitched rather well: Lieber’s 3.82 FIP would have made him a top-12 pitcher in 2007. And, not that anyone noticed, but Lieber’s June 9th outing against the Kansas City Royals had the best game score* of any outing by an N.L. pitcher in 2007: Lieber notched a game score of 92 that night on his way to striking out eleven while scattering three hits in a nine-inning shutout.
* a state Bill James came up with assigning an overall number to a pitcher’s outing while evaluating how they pitched.
Instead, his pedestrian ERA in '07, age (38 in 2008), and arm trouble (missed 2003 season with surgery) resulted in having to take a 50% pay cut to return to Chicago. Re-signing him was apparently never in the Phillies plans.
So what are the Cubs getting? A pretty good #4 pitcher: the Bill James Handbook says that Lieber will go 10-8 with a 4.04 ERA in 2008, which I think is pretty reasonable and in-line with Lieber’s career stats. He could end up being a very durable starter for the Cubs and a valuable edition for the playoffs since he’s had some experience, playing with the Yankees in 2004.
Good luck in the Windy City, Jon Lieber. He might be a key piece of the puzzle for the Cubs as they gun for their first World Series title in 100 years. I'll miss seeing him pitcher for the Phillies.
Labels: Lieber, Pitching, Rotation
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
New Faces, Part IV: Brad Lidge
Let’s continue our look at the newest Phillies by taking a quick look at the Phillies newest closer: Brad Lidge.
After the Phillies starting rotation struggled as badly as it did in 2007, the Phillies clearly needed to move Brett Myers from the closer role back into the rotation to give Cole Hamels support. The move was a wise one. While Myers performed admirably as the closer in 2007 – 4.33 ERA, 5-7 with 21 saves in 24 tries – Myers is more valuable to the Phillies as a starter, where he can throw 200+ innings a season instead of the 68 he threw for the Phillies last season. To fill the void, the Phillies went out and snapped up Brad Lidge from the Houston Astros, the second time in four seasons the Phillies pilfered the Astros closer (see: Wagner, Billy).
The trade itself was somewhat controversial, with some critics arguing that the Astros got the better end of the deal by acquiring Michael Bourn, Mike Costanzo and Geoff Geary, while others (myself included) felt that the Phillies had made a good decision, acquiring something they needed – a closer – while parting with things they didn’t need – a reserve outfielder, a minor league third baseman, and a middle reliever. Now the Phillies turn to Lidge. What exactly are they getting?
The first thing that jumps out at you when you look at Lidge’s stats is what a power pitcher he is. Lidge struck out 31% of the batters he faced in 2007. That’s nearly double the MLB average of 17%. That’s better than Jake Peavy (27%) and Hamels (24%), and Myers (28%). Lidge has always been a strikeout kinda guy:
K/9:
2004: 14.92
2005: 13.11
2006: 12.48
2007: 11.82
career: 12.59
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
Lidge has been effective in his career too: after moving into the closers role in 2004 when Wagner left, Lidge began saving games at an impressive rate:
Saves / Opportunities
2004: 29 / 33 (88%)
2005: 42 / 46 (91%)
2006: 32 / 38 (84%)
2007: 19 / 27 (70%)
’04 – ’07: 122 / 144 (85%)
While Lidge blew eight saves in 2007 after blowing fourteen in the previous three seasons combined, I think this was an anomaly. Lidge’s ERA was actually better in 2007 than the previous season (5.28 vs. 3.36). Lidge’s walk and strikeout rates remained constant.
Let’s compare Lidge to Billy Wagner, who hurled for the Phillies in ’04 & ’05, and was the man Lidge succeeded in 2004 with the Astros. Just look at Wagner and Lidge’s stats for 2007:
Wagner / Lidge
ERA: 2.63 / 3.36
FIP: 2.95 / 3.73
HR/9: 0.79 / 1.20
BB/9: 2.90 / 4.03
K/9: 10.53 / 11.82
Wagner, with his 100+ mph fastballs, is well-known as a strikeout pitcher who wracks up a lot of K’s, so it is interesting to me that Lidge actually out K’s Wagner.
I think Lidge will pitch well for the Phillies and the Phillies rotation will be bolstered with the return of Brett Myers to help Cole Hamels. Who knows, maybe the bullpen will be a strength for the Phillies in 2008?
(4) comments
After the Phillies starting rotation struggled as badly as it did in 2007, the Phillies clearly needed to move Brett Myers from the closer role back into the rotation to give Cole Hamels support. The move was a wise one. While Myers performed admirably as the closer in 2007 – 4.33 ERA, 5-7 with 21 saves in 24 tries – Myers is more valuable to the Phillies as a starter, where he can throw 200+ innings a season instead of the 68 he threw for the Phillies last season. To fill the void, the Phillies went out and snapped up Brad Lidge from the Houston Astros, the second time in four seasons the Phillies pilfered the Astros closer (see: Wagner, Billy).
The trade itself was somewhat controversial, with some critics arguing that the Astros got the better end of the deal by acquiring Michael Bourn, Mike Costanzo and Geoff Geary, while others (myself included) felt that the Phillies had made a good decision, acquiring something they needed – a closer – while parting with things they didn’t need – a reserve outfielder, a minor league third baseman, and a middle reliever. Now the Phillies turn to Lidge. What exactly are they getting?
The first thing that jumps out at you when you look at Lidge’s stats is what a power pitcher he is. Lidge struck out 31% of the batters he faced in 2007. That’s nearly double the MLB average of 17%. That’s better than Jake Peavy (27%) and Hamels (24%), and Myers (28%). Lidge has always been a strikeout kinda guy:
K/9:
2004: 14.92
2005: 13.11
2006: 12.48
2007: 11.82
career: 12.59
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
Lidge has been effective in his career too: after moving into the closers role in 2004 when Wagner left, Lidge began saving games at an impressive rate:
Saves / Opportunities
2004: 29 / 33 (88%)
2005: 42 / 46 (91%)
2006: 32 / 38 (84%)
2007: 19 / 27 (70%)
’04 – ’07: 122 / 144 (85%)
While Lidge blew eight saves in 2007 after blowing fourteen in the previous three seasons combined, I think this was an anomaly. Lidge’s ERA was actually better in 2007 than the previous season (5.28 vs. 3.36). Lidge’s walk and strikeout rates remained constant.
Let’s compare Lidge to Billy Wagner, who hurled for the Phillies in ’04 & ’05, and was the man Lidge succeeded in 2004 with the Astros. Just look at Wagner and Lidge’s stats for 2007:
Wagner / Lidge
ERA: 2.63 / 3.36
FIP: 2.95 / 3.73
HR/9: 0.79 / 1.20
BB/9: 2.90 / 4.03
K/9: 10.53 / 11.82
Wagner, with his 100+ mph fastballs, is well-known as a strikeout pitcher who wracks up a lot of K’s, so it is interesting to me that Lidge actually out K’s Wagner.
I think Lidge will pitch well for the Phillies and the Phillies rotation will be bolstered with the return of Brett Myers to help Cole Hamels. Who knows, maybe the bullpen will be a strength for the Phillies in 2008?
Labels: Bullpen, Lidge, Myers, Pitching, Wagner
