Thursday, May 19, 2005
Wednesday, May 18, 2005
The Phillies have had some remarkable luck this season against the Cards, haven't they? We'll see if that trend continues this evening.
Been thrilling to watch Bobby Abreu club the ball out of the park these last few games. Since he hit his first home run against the Cubbies on May8 he's upped his OBP sixty points and his slugging percentage nearly 200 points. As a consequence the Phils have jumped in slugging percentage and ISO: the Phillies are actually 14th now is ISO and are starting to improve. I think the Phillies will catch fire at the plate when Ryan Howard gets an opportunity to show what he can do.
Monday, May 16, 2005
To give you an idea about some of the problems the pen is having, check out this comparison of the rotation and the bullpen. For the purposes of fairness, I'm including Gavin Floyd in the "starters" circle though he has pitched badly in relief following his sterling start against the Cardinals. Check out the numbers:
Rotation / Team
ERA: 4.58 / 4.86
WHIP: 1.337 / 1.392
BB/9: 3.05 / 3.15
K/9: 6.52 / 6.84
HR/9: 1.38 / 1.39
FIP number: 1.560 / 1.537
I'm sorely tempted to subtract Floyd's 22 earned runs, 12 walks to 4 strikeouts and 4 home runs in 14 innings to bolster my argument, but there you are. Since the Phillies have groundballer types that don't log many strikeouts in their rotation, their FIP number is a little high and their K/9 is low. Delete Padilla and Floyd and those numbers look better. While Lieber's FIP is nearly two runs higher than his actual ERA (a product of the good- .762 DER -defense of him), Lidle and Myers are hurling very well:
Lidle is out-pitching his "real" ERA by over a run (3.16 FIP v. 4.43 ERA), but has been done-in by shoddy D (.678 DER).
Myers has been fabulous: averaging 11 K's per 9 innings, not issuing walks and being stingy with the home runs. I caution that his FIP ERA is one and a third runs higher than his "real" ERA, but he's having a great year.
Now scope out the bullpen:
Bullpen / Team
ERA: 5.57 / 4.86
WHIP: 1.531 / 1.392
BB/9: 3.40 / 3.15
K/9: 7.65 / 6.84
HR/9: 1.42 / 1.39
FIP number: 1.479 / 1.537
Blowing leads, surrendering home runs ... the bullpen has been a little bad and a little unlucky.
While the relievers have been pitching poorly, I caution that the 'pen has had poor defense. Worrell's 9.82 ERA looks awful, but he's had a .537 DER behind him. Adams, Cormier and Madson have all had substandard defense.
So the bullpen's been pitching badly, but I think they'll get better. The rotation has been ok, but it'll get a little worse.
Next up: the Braves. Let's hope we take 2 of 3, because it would be terrible to have a losing record on a homestand.