Tuesday, January 22, 2008
New Faces, Part IV: Brad Lidge
Let’s continue our look at the newest Phillies by taking a quick look at the Phillies newest closer: Brad Lidge.
After the Phillies starting rotation struggled as badly as it did in 2007, the Phillies clearly needed to move Brett Myers from the closer role back into the rotation to give Cole Hamels support. The move was a wise one. While Myers performed admirably as the closer in 2007 – 4.33 ERA, 5-7 with 21 saves in 24 tries – Myers is more valuable to the Phillies as a starter, where he can throw 200+ innings a season instead of the 68 he threw for the Phillies last season. To fill the void, the Phillies went out and snapped up Brad Lidge from the Houston Astros, the second time in four seasons the Phillies pilfered the Astros closer (see: Wagner, Billy).
The trade itself was somewhat controversial, with some critics arguing that the Astros got the better end of the deal by acquiring Michael Bourn, Mike Costanzo and Geoff Geary, while others (myself included) felt that the Phillies had made a good decision, acquiring something they needed – a closer – while parting with things they didn’t need – a reserve outfielder, a minor league third baseman, and a middle reliever. Now the Phillies turn to Lidge. What exactly are they getting?
The first thing that jumps out at you when you look at Lidge’s stats is what a power pitcher he is. Lidge struck out 31% of the batters he faced in 2007. That’s nearly double the MLB average of 17%. That’s better than Jake Peavy (27%) and Hamels (24%), and Myers (28%). Lidge has always been a strikeout kinda guy:
K/9:
2004: 14.92
2005: 13.11
2006: 12.48
2007: 11.82
career: 12.59
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
Lidge has been effective in his career too: after moving into the closers role in 2004 when Wagner left, Lidge began saving games at an impressive rate:
Saves / Opportunities
2004: 29 / 33 (88%)
2005: 42 / 46 (91%)
2006: 32 / 38 (84%)
2007: 19 / 27 (70%)
’04 – ’07: 122 / 144 (85%)
While Lidge blew eight saves in 2007 after blowing fourteen in the previous three seasons combined, I think this was an anomaly. Lidge’s ERA was actually better in 2007 than the previous season (5.28 vs. 3.36). Lidge’s walk and strikeout rates remained constant.
Let’s compare Lidge to Billy Wagner, who hurled for the Phillies in ’04 & ’05, and was the man Lidge succeeded in 2004 with the Astros. Just look at Wagner and Lidge’s stats for 2007:
Wagner / Lidge
ERA: 2.63 / 3.36
FIP: 2.95 / 3.73
HR/9: 0.79 / 1.20
BB/9: 2.90 / 4.03
K/9: 10.53 / 11.82
Wagner, with his 100+ mph fastballs, is well-known as a strikeout pitcher who wracks up a lot of K’s, so it is interesting to me that Lidge actually out K’s Wagner.
I think Lidge will pitch well for the Phillies and the Phillies rotation will be bolstered with the return of Brett Myers to help Cole Hamels. Who knows, maybe the bullpen will be a strength for the Phillies in 2008?
(4) comments
After the Phillies starting rotation struggled as badly as it did in 2007, the Phillies clearly needed to move Brett Myers from the closer role back into the rotation to give Cole Hamels support. The move was a wise one. While Myers performed admirably as the closer in 2007 – 4.33 ERA, 5-7 with 21 saves in 24 tries – Myers is more valuable to the Phillies as a starter, where he can throw 200+ innings a season instead of the 68 he threw for the Phillies last season. To fill the void, the Phillies went out and snapped up Brad Lidge from the Houston Astros, the second time in four seasons the Phillies pilfered the Astros closer (see: Wagner, Billy).
The trade itself was somewhat controversial, with some critics arguing that the Astros got the better end of the deal by acquiring Michael Bourn, Mike Costanzo and Geoff Geary, while others (myself included) felt that the Phillies had made a good decision, acquiring something they needed – a closer – while parting with things they didn’t need – a reserve outfielder, a minor league third baseman, and a middle reliever. Now the Phillies turn to Lidge. What exactly are they getting?
The first thing that jumps out at you when you look at Lidge’s stats is what a power pitcher he is. Lidge struck out 31% of the batters he faced in 2007. That’s nearly double the MLB average of 17%. That’s better than Jake Peavy (27%) and Hamels (24%), and Myers (28%). Lidge has always been a strikeout kinda guy:
K/9:
2004: 14.92
2005: 13.11
2006: 12.48
2007: 11.82
career: 12.59
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
Lidge has been effective in his career too: after moving into the closers role in 2004 when Wagner left, Lidge began saving games at an impressive rate:
Saves / Opportunities
2004: 29 / 33 (88%)
2005: 42 / 46 (91%)
2006: 32 / 38 (84%)
2007: 19 / 27 (70%)
’04 – ’07: 122 / 144 (85%)
While Lidge blew eight saves in 2007 after blowing fourteen in the previous three seasons combined, I think this was an anomaly. Lidge’s ERA was actually better in 2007 than the previous season (5.28 vs. 3.36). Lidge’s walk and strikeout rates remained constant.
Let’s compare Lidge to Billy Wagner, who hurled for the Phillies in ’04 & ’05, and was the man Lidge succeeded in 2004 with the Astros. Just look at Wagner and Lidge’s stats for 2007:
Wagner / Lidge
ERA: 2.63 / 3.36
FIP: 2.95 / 3.73
HR/9: 0.79 / 1.20
BB/9: 2.90 / 4.03
K/9: 10.53 / 11.82
Wagner, with his 100+ mph fastballs, is well-known as a strikeout pitcher who wracks up a lot of K’s, so it is interesting to me that Lidge actually out K’s Wagner.
I think Lidge will pitch well for the Phillies and the Phillies rotation will be bolstered with the return of Brett Myers to help Cole Hamels. Who knows, maybe the bullpen will be a strength for the Phillies in 2008?
Labels: Bullpen, Lidge, Myers, Pitching, Wagner
Thursday, November 08, 2007
The Lidge Trade, Gold Gloves and Future Deals...
You may have noticed that A Citizens Blog has throttled down to 2-3 posts a week from the customary 5. Simply put, I’ve been busy and there hasn’t been much to talk about. Presently I am working on the Season In Review series, but work has been a disaster of late and I’ve been tired. I also turn sedentary in the winter time, so being energetic isn’t happening.
Let’s start with the winter meetings … Lots of deals get done at the Winter Meeting of the GM’s every year and I’d expect this year to be no different. The Phillies are in the market for pitching help and for a new third baseman. So far they’ve taken the first step to address their bullpen issues by dealing Geoff Geary, Michael Bourn and Mike Costanzo to the Houston Astros for Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett.
The Phillies give up … Michael Bourn, a fast player who wowed the Phillies by swiping 18 bases in 19 tries. In one particularly memorable game Bourn entered the game as a pinch-runner for Pat Burrell and proceeded to swipe second base, then third base, and scored on a weak grounder by Wes Helms because he was simply too fast to catch.
The thing about Bourn was that he was going to be the Phillies fourth outfielder in 2008, a defensive replacement / designated runner. Shane Victorino is going to slide into Aaron Rowand’s slot in centerfield and Jayson Werth seems destined to play rightfield for the Phillies. Both Victorino and Werth are quick but pack some power in their bats. Bourn is a one-trick pony: he runs very, very fast. I’m sure as a full-time player with the Astros he’ll steal 50-60 bases, but he’s a little like Vince Coleman, a speedster whose On-Base and Slugging Percentages weren’t so good. I’m sure Chris Roberson can fulfill the fourth outfielder slot for the Phillies just as well.
The Phillies give up … Geoff Geary, a solid set-up man whom the Phillies can ill-afford to part with. Last season Geary’s stats weren’t so great: 3-2, 4.41 ERA, 1.05 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, and 5.0 K/9. He benefited from strong defense behind him: the Phillies DER behind him was .704, so his defense-neutral stats say that he pitched worse than his ERA: his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA was 4.93. That is a great deal higher than it was his last two seasons: 3.48 FIP in 2005 and 3.58 in 2006. Is Geary slipping or have the Phillies just lost the man they need to set up Lidge’s ninth inning saves? Time shall tell.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
DER – Defense Efficiency Ratio: (Batters Faced – (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) / (Batters Faced – (Home Runs, Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) How often fielders convert balls put into play into outs.
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
Zone Rating (ZR): Is a stat which measures a player’s defensive ability by measuring plays they should have made. Admittedly, this is a stat left open to subjective opinions.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
And the Phillies give up … Mike Costanzo, the Phillies second-round pick (first overall) in the 2005 Draft is a Philly native, so it is a shame he’ll never be able to play for his hometown team. After working his way from Short-Season Single-A in 2005 to Advanced Single-A in 2006 to Double-A in 2007, Costanzo seemed poised to travel north to Allentown to play with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs in 2008. A third baseman, he is not in the Phillies plans for 2008 because he needs time in Triple-A to develop his skills. Costanzo is a solid prospect and one of the few potential everyday players being developed in the Phillies system. As a Reading Phillie he had a .368 OBP with 27 Home Runs and 86 RBI. He had a 116 OPS+ in the Eastern League. He might be the piece of the puzzle that the Phillies miss the most.
The Phillies get … Bruntlett, a classic light-hitting utility infielder. Say hello to the new Abraham Nunez.
The Phillies also get … Lidge, the prize of the deal. Lidge succeeded Billy Wagner as the Astros closer – hey, the second time that the Phillies have taken the Astros closer – and converted 29 of 33 saves in 2004, 42 of 46 in 2005, 32 of 38 in 2006 and just 19 of 27 in 2007. On the surface it looks like Lidge slipped in 2007, but his FIP ERA was right near what it was in 2006: 3.73 to 3.70. I love that Lidge gets a lot of strikeouts: 16.5 K/9 in 2004 (157 strikeouts in 94 & 2/3 innings!), 13.6 in 2005, and 11.9 in 2006 & 2007. He’s a strikeout machine like Wagner was, not a finesse-oriented closer like Tom Gordon. Just what this team needs. The only big minus I have about Lidge is that he gives up a lot of walks: 4.1 BB/9 the last two seasons.
Generally, I give the trade a qualified thumbs up. I think it will benefit the Phillies in the short-term, but I fear that trading Costanzo might come back to haunt the Phillies.
Let’s move onto the Phillies other needs … The market for bats at third is going to be pretty thin this season. You’re choices are going to be A-Rod, Mike Lowell, and … That’s about it. A-Rod’s $30 million prices him out of the Phillies budget, so Mike Lowell is pretty much it for the Phillies. Expect to see Lowell pursed by the Yankees pretty aggressively and for the Red Sox to spend money to keep him out of the Bronx.
The Phillies prospects for obtaining Lowell’s services are pretty bleak, in my opinion.
So the Phillies will likely turn to another trade. Much talk has been made of the Phillies dealing for the Rockies Garrett Atkins, because the Rockies have a very talented prospect poised to play third base, but I am skeptical that the Rockies would break-up any part of their formidable roster after their astonishing run to the World Series. No, expect the Rockies to keep Atkins or demand a King’s Ransom for his services.
I’ve said this in the past, but a key factor in whether or not a deal gets done is whether or not teams have done business in the past. The White Sox and Phillies have had numerous deals with one another since Pat Gillick took over the reins as Phillies GM: Jim Thome-for-Aaron Rowand, Gio Gonzalez/Gavin Floyd-for-Freddy Garcia, Tadahito Iguchi-for-Mike Dubee, etc. There has been a lot of traffic between the South Side of Chicago and Philly now for the last few months, so it is reasonable to assume that it will continue.
The Phillies have twin concerns: pitching and a bat at third base. Expect the team to attempt to pull-off a deal where they’ll ship some minor-league players to Chicago in exchange for Joe Crede and Jon Garland.
Crede had a terrible season in 2007 (.258 OBP, 4 Home Runs and 22 RBI in just 47 Games), but he’s a powerful bat (30 Home Runs, 31 Doubles, 94 RBI, and .223 ISO in 2006) who would be a definite upgrade over Wes Helms (5 Home Runs, 39 RBI, .297 OBP in 112 Games). Garland, a Jon Lieber-type pitcher who doesn’t surrender many walks or home runs (2.46 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9), would fit in well with the Phillies rotation and would be a good arm to round out the Phillies rotation in 2008 (Hamels, Moyer, Eaton, Myers and Garland), assuming that Brett Myers returns to the rotation.
What could the Phillies offer from their meager farm system? Greg Golson, currently playing Double-A ball with Mike Costanzo’s old team in Reading, is a position player with enough skills to entice teams. Jeremy Slayden, a slow-footed slugger from Advanced Single-A Clearwater, is a talented player who has limited prospects of playing with the newly speedy Phillies. Slayden would fit right in the American League. The White Sox seem intent on gobbling up Phillies pitching, so why not package J.D. Durbin or J.A. Happ or Kyle Drabek as part of the deal? Or Kyle Kendrick, now that the Phillies can return Myers to the rotation. He's a proven starter the Phillies can shop. The Phillies could probably part with three or four of these players and easily continue to nurture talent in the minors. Crede and Garland would be key parts to the Phillies 2008 season, while Durbin, Kendrick, et al, would go a long way towards helping the White Sox rebuilding program.
Forget free agency or a trade with the Twins for Johan Santana, this is the deal that the Phillies are going to make this off-season and it is the only one that makes sense. Moving along …
It’s almost time for award season. AL and NL Rookie of the Year on Monday, Managers of the Year next Wednesday, the AL Cy Young on Tuesday, the NL Cy Young next Thursday, then the AL MVP on Monday the 19th and the NL MVP on the 20th. I’ll predict the awards on Monday. So far baseball has handed out some awards: the Gold Gloves were awarded the other day and I was pleasantly surprised.
Two Phillies won awards: Jimmy Rollins and Aaron Rowand. I hate raining on the parade of a Phillie, but how in the world did Aaron Rowand win this award? This has to be a reward for meritorious play in 2005 with the White Sox, because Rowand is terrible these days. According to The Hardball Times Relative Zone Rating (RZR), Rowand was sixth of seven NL centerfielders in 2007 in RZR and ninth of eleven in 2006. Shane Victorino easily bested Rowand in centerfield in 2006, turning in better RZR numbers, committing fewer errors and getting more assists per inning played. In 2007, Rowand played nearly all of the Phillies defensive innings, but there were a multitude of players who turned in better performances. File this one under: “Huh?”
Jimmy Rollins got the Gold Glove for short, which again, I am skeptical about. Rollins finished ninth of fourteen N.L. shortstops in RZR. J.Roll displayed some nice range, with 65 plays on balls hit outside of his zone, but the Pirates Jack Wilson had 78 in 300 fewer innings of work. To J.Roll’s credit he was third in Fielding Percentage and second in double plays started, but I am not sure that he really was the best defensive shortstop in the N.L.
To my pleasant surprise baseball chose not to award Derek Jeter with a Gold Glove for the first time in recent memory. The decision to award Kevin “The Greek God of Walks” Youkilis the Gold Glove for first base was astonishing: Youkilis, a DH-type, led the AL in RZR at first base. Alright, being the best defensive first baseman isn’t much to boast about, but it is something and it strikes me that the pundits got it exactly right. Well done.
I’ll complete my current projects soon enough. Keep reading…
(4) comments
Let’s start with the winter meetings … Lots of deals get done at the Winter Meeting of the GM’s every year and I’d expect this year to be no different. The Phillies are in the market for pitching help and for a new third baseman. So far they’ve taken the first step to address their bullpen issues by dealing Geoff Geary, Michael Bourn and Mike Costanzo to the Houston Astros for Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett.
The Phillies give up … Michael Bourn, a fast player who wowed the Phillies by swiping 18 bases in 19 tries. In one particularly memorable game Bourn entered the game as a pinch-runner for Pat Burrell and proceeded to swipe second base, then third base, and scored on a weak grounder by Wes Helms because he was simply too fast to catch.
The thing about Bourn was that he was going to be the Phillies fourth outfielder in 2008, a defensive replacement / designated runner. Shane Victorino is going to slide into Aaron Rowand’s slot in centerfield and Jayson Werth seems destined to play rightfield for the Phillies. Both Victorino and Werth are quick but pack some power in their bats. Bourn is a one-trick pony: he runs very, very fast. I’m sure as a full-time player with the Astros he’ll steal 50-60 bases, but he’s a little like Vince Coleman, a speedster whose On-Base and Slugging Percentages weren’t so good. I’m sure Chris Roberson can fulfill the fourth outfielder slot for the Phillies just as well.
The Phillies give up … Geoff Geary, a solid set-up man whom the Phillies can ill-afford to part with. Last season Geary’s stats weren’t so great: 3-2, 4.41 ERA, 1.05 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, and 5.0 K/9. He benefited from strong defense behind him: the Phillies DER behind him was .704, so his defense-neutral stats say that he pitched worse than his ERA: his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA was 4.93. That is a great deal higher than it was his last two seasons: 3.48 FIP in 2005 and 3.58 in 2006. Is Geary slipping or have the Phillies just lost the man they need to set up Lidge’s ninth inning saves? Time shall tell.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
DER – Defense Efficiency Ratio: (Batters Faced – (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) / (Batters Faced – (Home Runs, Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) How often fielders convert balls put into play into outs.
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
Zone Rating (ZR): Is a stat which measures a player’s defensive ability by measuring plays they should have made. Admittedly, this is a stat left open to subjective opinions.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
And the Phillies give up … Mike Costanzo, the Phillies second-round pick (first overall) in the 2005 Draft is a Philly native, so it is a shame he’ll never be able to play for his hometown team. After working his way from Short-Season Single-A in 2005 to Advanced Single-A in 2006 to Double-A in 2007, Costanzo seemed poised to travel north to Allentown to play with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs in 2008. A third baseman, he is not in the Phillies plans for 2008 because he needs time in Triple-A to develop his skills. Costanzo is a solid prospect and one of the few potential everyday players being developed in the Phillies system. As a Reading Phillie he had a .368 OBP with 27 Home Runs and 86 RBI. He had a 116 OPS+ in the Eastern League. He might be the piece of the puzzle that the Phillies miss the most.
The Phillies get … Bruntlett, a classic light-hitting utility infielder. Say hello to the new Abraham Nunez.
The Phillies also get … Lidge, the prize of the deal. Lidge succeeded Billy Wagner as the Astros closer – hey, the second time that the Phillies have taken the Astros closer – and converted 29 of 33 saves in 2004, 42 of 46 in 2005, 32 of 38 in 2006 and just 19 of 27 in 2007. On the surface it looks like Lidge slipped in 2007, but his FIP ERA was right near what it was in 2006: 3.73 to 3.70. I love that Lidge gets a lot of strikeouts: 16.5 K/9 in 2004 (157 strikeouts in 94 & 2/3 innings!), 13.6 in 2005, and 11.9 in 2006 & 2007. He’s a strikeout machine like Wagner was, not a finesse-oriented closer like Tom Gordon. Just what this team needs. The only big minus I have about Lidge is that he gives up a lot of walks: 4.1 BB/9 the last two seasons.
Generally, I give the trade a qualified thumbs up. I think it will benefit the Phillies in the short-term, but I fear that trading Costanzo might come back to haunt the Phillies.
Let’s move onto the Phillies other needs … The market for bats at third is going to be pretty thin this season. You’re choices are going to be A-Rod, Mike Lowell, and … That’s about it. A-Rod’s $30 million prices him out of the Phillies budget, so Mike Lowell is pretty much it for the Phillies. Expect to see Lowell pursed by the Yankees pretty aggressively and for the Red Sox to spend money to keep him out of the Bronx.
The Phillies prospects for obtaining Lowell’s services are pretty bleak, in my opinion.
So the Phillies will likely turn to another trade. Much talk has been made of the Phillies dealing for the Rockies Garrett Atkins, because the Rockies have a very talented prospect poised to play third base, but I am skeptical that the Rockies would break-up any part of their formidable roster after their astonishing run to the World Series. No, expect the Rockies to keep Atkins or demand a King’s Ransom for his services.
I’ve said this in the past, but a key factor in whether or not a deal gets done is whether or not teams have done business in the past. The White Sox and Phillies have had numerous deals with one another since Pat Gillick took over the reins as Phillies GM: Jim Thome-for-Aaron Rowand, Gio Gonzalez/Gavin Floyd-for-Freddy Garcia, Tadahito Iguchi-for-Mike Dubee, etc. There has been a lot of traffic between the South Side of Chicago and Philly now for the last few months, so it is reasonable to assume that it will continue.
The Phillies have twin concerns: pitching and a bat at third base. Expect the team to attempt to pull-off a deal where they’ll ship some minor-league players to Chicago in exchange for Joe Crede and Jon Garland.
Crede had a terrible season in 2007 (.258 OBP, 4 Home Runs and 22 RBI in just 47 Games), but he’s a powerful bat (30 Home Runs, 31 Doubles, 94 RBI, and .223 ISO in 2006) who would be a definite upgrade over Wes Helms (5 Home Runs, 39 RBI, .297 OBP in 112 Games). Garland, a Jon Lieber-type pitcher who doesn’t surrender many walks or home runs (2.46 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9), would fit in well with the Phillies rotation and would be a good arm to round out the Phillies rotation in 2008 (Hamels, Moyer, Eaton, Myers and Garland), assuming that Brett Myers returns to the rotation.
What could the Phillies offer from their meager farm system? Greg Golson, currently playing Double-A ball with Mike Costanzo’s old team in Reading, is a position player with enough skills to entice teams. Jeremy Slayden, a slow-footed slugger from Advanced Single-A Clearwater, is a talented player who has limited prospects of playing with the newly speedy Phillies. Slayden would fit right in the American League. The White Sox seem intent on gobbling up Phillies pitching, so why not package J.D. Durbin or J.A. Happ or Kyle Drabek as part of the deal? Or Kyle Kendrick, now that the Phillies can return Myers to the rotation. He's a proven starter the Phillies can shop. The Phillies could probably part with three or four of these players and easily continue to nurture talent in the minors. Crede and Garland would be key parts to the Phillies 2008 season, while Durbin, Kendrick, et al, would go a long way towards helping the White Sox rebuilding program.
Forget free agency or a trade with the Twins for Johan Santana, this is the deal that the Phillies are going to make this off-season and it is the only one that makes sense. Moving along …
It’s almost time for award season. AL and NL Rookie of the Year on Monday, Managers of the Year next Wednesday, the AL Cy Young on Tuesday, the NL Cy Young next Thursday, then the AL MVP on Monday the 19th and the NL MVP on the 20th. I’ll predict the awards on Monday. So far baseball has handed out some awards: the Gold Gloves were awarded the other day and I was pleasantly surprised.
Two Phillies won awards: Jimmy Rollins and Aaron Rowand. I hate raining on the parade of a Phillie, but how in the world did Aaron Rowand win this award? This has to be a reward for meritorious play in 2005 with the White Sox, because Rowand is terrible these days. According to The Hardball Times Relative Zone Rating (RZR), Rowand was sixth of seven NL centerfielders in 2007 in RZR and ninth of eleven in 2006. Shane Victorino easily bested Rowand in centerfield in 2006, turning in better RZR numbers, committing fewer errors and getting more assists per inning played. In 2007, Rowand played nearly all of the Phillies defensive innings, but there were a multitude of players who turned in better performances. File this one under: “Huh?”
Jimmy Rollins got the Gold Glove for short, which again, I am skeptical about. Rollins finished ninth of fourteen N.L. shortstops in RZR. J.Roll displayed some nice range, with 65 plays on balls hit outside of his zone, but the Pirates Jack Wilson had 78 in 300 fewer innings of work. To J.Roll’s credit he was third in Fielding Percentage and second in double plays started, but I am not sure that he really was the best defensive shortstop in the N.L.
To my pleasant surprise baseball chose not to award Derek Jeter with a Gold Glove for the first time in recent memory. The decision to award Kevin “The Greek God of Walks” Youkilis the Gold Glove for first base was astonishing: Youkilis, a DH-type, led the AL in RZR at first base. Alright, being the best defensive first baseman isn’t much to boast about, but it is something and it strikes me that the pundits got it exactly right. Well done.
I’ll complete my current projects soon enough. Keep reading…
Labels: Base-Stealing, Bourn, Bullpen, Geary, Gordon, Minors, Off-Season, Speed, Third Base, Wagner
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
X-Files, Part II
Today we’ll continue to look at former Phillies and what they are up to now. Today we are talking about 2005 alumni:
Jim Thome
Placido Polanco
Jason Michaels
Billy Wagner
Vicente Padilla
The Phillies as it turns out, let a lot of key (or formerly key) players walk during (Polanco) the 2005 campaign, but especially after. The interesting thing about the shifts in personnel is that, unlike the departures of Kevin Millwood and Eric Milton via free agency in 2004, the Phillies engineered their moves in 2005. They traded every player on the list above aside from Wagner. Let’s start with Jim Thome:
Dealt to the White Sox in exchange for Aaron Rowand, Thome was suddenly made expendable by Ryan Howard’s formidable 2005 campaign. About nine years younger and significantly cheaper, Ryan Howard became an attractive option for the Phillies at first base and gave the team the opportunity to shop Thome for help in center field. The team eagerly pulled the trigger on the deal, especially in light of Thome’s injury-plagued ’05 season (7 Home Runs, 30 RBI, .207 batting average in 59 games), to grab Aaron Rowand, the White Sox terrific center fielder.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). If you use ESPN’s version be advised that it is pitifully is out-of-date, however. James adjusted RC after the 2004 season ended.
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
Since joining the White Sox, Thome has largely regained his pre-’05 form. In 2006 he bombed 42 home runs and had 109 RBIs, which is basically what he had in 2004: 42 Home Runs, 105 RBIs. In many respects Thome’s ’06 campaign was much better than ’04: he hit better in the clutch (.203 BA/RISP in 2004 to .336 in 2006) and produced runs at a greater clip (7.0 Runs Created per 27 Outs in 2004 vs. 9.6 in 2006). No doubt being freed from having to play first base helped as Thome.
Remarkably, Thome might be doing a better job this season: his OBP is an ungodly .470. His RC/27 is a robust 10.7 … meaning a hypothetical team of nine Jim Thome’s would ring up 10.7 runs a game. Yikes.
In the long run, the Thome-Rowand deal probably helped the Phillies. As good as Jim Thome was with the White Sox, Ryan Howard was just as good. In the long run, Howard is going to give the Phillies six, seven, eight years (provided they can keep him) of service. And Rowand is having a terrific year at the plate as well this season, after a generally disappointing 2006. Rowand is either going to give the Phillies a terrific center fielder for a few more years to come or he’ll give the team valuable trade bait. As painful as it is to watch Jim Thome ring up the runs in Chicago, I doubt he’d be as productive with the Phillies (moving to the DH has been big for him…) and the team would have lost Ryan Howard.
The move that cost the Phillies in 2005 was Jason Michaels. Michaels was a terrific #4 outfielder for the team for years, consistently able to provide the Phillies with a nice bat off the bench and a strong defensive presence in the outfield. He played all three outfield slots well. He was the ideal guy.
Unfortunately the Phillies dealt him to the Cleveland Indians for Arthur Rhodes, a player who will almost certainly never play for the Phillies again and who, when he did, barely benefited the team: 0-5, 5.32 ERA in 2006. In exchange the Phillies gave up a talented player:
Michaels struggled in 2006: .326 OBP, down from .399 in 2005 and .364 in 2004 with the Phillies … .246 BA/RISP, down from .284 and .295 in ’04 and ’05 … 4.7 RC/27 in 2006, down from 5.8 and 6.4 … He’s rebounded significantly in 2007, raising his OBP to .341 and has hit five home runs. His BA/RISP is .379 this season and he’s creating runs at a 6.6 clip. Defensively, Michaels is doing well: his Zone Rating would rank third amongst left fielders if he qualified. He’s a solid fielder and hitter. The Phillies made a serious mistake letting him go.
Placido Polanco, whom the Phillies dealt to the Tigers in exchange for Robinson Tejada, is an interesting case. On one hand Polanco’s departure opened things up for Chase Utley to seize the starting job and become the best second baseman in baseball, however, Polanco would be welcome on the Phillies roster now at third base, where the team has a crying need for help. The versatile Polanco played third when he joined the Phillies after the Scott Rolen deal in 2003.
Polanco has been a consistently good performer in Detroit:
RC/27
2005: 7.6
2006: 5.4
2007: 7.8
What impresses me, and what the Phillies could use on their roster right now, is Polanco’s skill with runners on:
BA/RISP:
2005: .381
2006: .396
2007: .423
Polanco’s also a pretty good fielder too: in 540 innings he’s committed zero errors at second base. His fielding percentages in 2005 and 2006 were .993 and .989 with the Tigers. The solid hitting, the clutch bat, the strong fielding … Polanco would be a major upgrade over the Wes Helms / Abraham Nunez mess the Phillies have.
On the other hand, you have to say that this deal was a success for the Phillies. Sure, they didn’t get anything for Polanco in the long run (Tejada has … how should I say this politely? … Legal problems) but in allowing Polanco to leave they allowed Chase Utley to become the best second baseman in the game. Can’t argue with that …
Briefly, I’ll discuss Padilla and Wagner … The Phillies had little choice but to allow Billy Wagner to go. Wagner was clearly unimpressed with the direction the Phillies were on and the lure of playing in New York for the Mets was too much for him to ignore. As a Phillie Wagner was what the team needed after the Jose Mesa era: a lights-out closer who’d get a 1, 2, 3 ninth-inning night after night. As a Phillie Wagner saved 59 of 66 opportunities. As a Met, he’s converted on 55 of 61. Pretty similar. I haven’t noticed any decline in his skills:
K/9 BB/9
2004: 12.5 / 1.3 (as Phillie)
2005: 11.2 / 2.6 (ditto)
2006: 12.3 / 2.7 (as Met)
2007: 12.6 / 2.6 (ditto)
His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), on the other hand, is rising:
FIP:
2004: 2.28
2005: 2.56
2006: 2.87
2007: 3.20
The Phillies clearly miss Wagner now, with their merry-go-round of Tom Gordon, Brett Myers and Antonio Alfonseca. This defection has hurt the Phillies, but it was a decision that was purely out of their control.
The decision to deal Vicente Padilla is simply indefensible. Dealt to the Texas Rangers for Ricardo Rodriguez prior to the 2006 season, the Phillies promptly cut Rodriguez in Spring Training while Padilla went 15-10 with a 4.50 ERA. While Padilla is struggling this season (3-8, 6.57 ERA), this trade was still a blunder. The Phillies dealt away a player they had invested significant time and money developing for … nothing. Ouch.
Tomorrow, the 2006 X-Files.
An off-day for the Phillies today before they square up for a three-game series with the Cincinnati Reds, arguably the worst team in the majors right now. Sadly, the Phillies won't get to pick on Eric Milton, but they ought to cleanup on the Reds pitching otherwise. Kyle Kenderick makes the start for the Phillies tonight, his third career big league start.
Speaking of starting pitching, J.D.Durbin will make his MLB debut against the Mets this weekend during the double-header. Durbin is 2-4 with a 4.55 ERA this season. He's been almost entirely off my radar screen as a player, never really getting a mention as a top Phillies prospect, so I wonder how he'll do. In the long run, I suspect that the Phillies will move Brett Myers back into the rotation when he returns soon, as the Phillies don't want two rookies who started the season in the minors filling their rotation. It is just as well: Antonia Alfonseca is doing quite well as the team's closer these days.
(1) comments
Jim Thome
Placido Polanco
Jason Michaels
Billy Wagner
Vicente Padilla
The Phillies as it turns out, let a lot of key (or formerly key) players walk during (Polanco) the 2005 campaign, but especially after. The interesting thing about the shifts in personnel is that, unlike the departures of Kevin Millwood and Eric Milton via free agency in 2004, the Phillies engineered their moves in 2005. They traded every player on the list above aside from Wagner. Let’s start with Jim Thome:
Dealt to the White Sox in exchange for Aaron Rowand, Thome was suddenly made expendable by Ryan Howard’s formidable 2005 campaign. About nine years younger and significantly cheaper, Ryan Howard became an attractive option for the Phillies at first base and gave the team the opportunity to shop Thome for help in center field. The team eagerly pulled the trigger on the deal, especially in light of Thome’s injury-plagued ’05 season (7 Home Runs, 30 RBI, .207 batting average in 59 games), to grab Aaron Rowand, the White Sox terrific center fielder.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). If you use ESPN’s version be advised that it is pitifully is out-of-date, however. James adjusted RC after the 2004 season ended.
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
Since joining the White Sox, Thome has largely regained his pre-’05 form. In 2006 he bombed 42 home runs and had 109 RBIs, which is basically what he had in 2004: 42 Home Runs, 105 RBIs. In many respects Thome’s ’06 campaign was much better than ’04: he hit better in the clutch (.203 BA/RISP in 2004 to .336 in 2006) and produced runs at a greater clip (7.0 Runs Created per 27 Outs in 2004 vs. 9.6 in 2006). No doubt being freed from having to play first base helped as Thome.
Remarkably, Thome might be doing a better job this season: his OBP is an ungodly .470. His RC/27 is a robust 10.7 … meaning a hypothetical team of nine Jim Thome’s would ring up 10.7 runs a game. Yikes.
In the long run, the Thome-Rowand deal probably helped the Phillies. As good as Jim Thome was with the White Sox, Ryan Howard was just as good. In the long run, Howard is going to give the Phillies six, seven, eight years (provided they can keep him) of service. And Rowand is having a terrific year at the plate as well this season, after a generally disappointing 2006. Rowand is either going to give the Phillies a terrific center fielder for a few more years to come or he’ll give the team valuable trade bait. As painful as it is to watch Jim Thome ring up the runs in Chicago, I doubt he’d be as productive with the Phillies (moving to the DH has been big for him…) and the team would have lost Ryan Howard.
The move that cost the Phillies in 2005 was Jason Michaels. Michaels was a terrific #4 outfielder for the team for years, consistently able to provide the Phillies with a nice bat off the bench and a strong defensive presence in the outfield. He played all three outfield slots well. He was the ideal guy.
Unfortunately the Phillies dealt him to the Cleveland Indians for Arthur Rhodes, a player who will almost certainly never play for the Phillies again and who, when he did, barely benefited the team: 0-5, 5.32 ERA in 2006. In exchange the Phillies gave up a talented player:
Michaels struggled in 2006: .326 OBP, down from .399 in 2005 and .364 in 2004 with the Phillies … .246 BA/RISP, down from .284 and .295 in ’04 and ’05 … 4.7 RC/27 in 2006, down from 5.8 and 6.4 … He’s rebounded significantly in 2007, raising his OBP to .341 and has hit five home runs. His BA/RISP is .379 this season and he’s creating runs at a 6.6 clip. Defensively, Michaels is doing well: his Zone Rating would rank third amongst left fielders if he qualified. He’s a solid fielder and hitter. The Phillies made a serious mistake letting him go.
Placido Polanco, whom the Phillies dealt to the Tigers in exchange for Robinson Tejada, is an interesting case. On one hand Polanco’s departure opened things up for Chase Utley to seize the starting job and become the best second baseman in baseball, however, Polanco would be welcome on the Phillies roster now at third base, where the team has a crying need for help. The versatile Polanco played third when he joined the Phillies after the Scott Rolen deal in 2003.
Polanco has been a consistently good performer in Detroit:
RC/27
2005: 7.6
2006: 5.4
2007: 7.8
What impresses me, and what the Phillies could use on their roster right now, is Polanco’s skill with runners on:
BA/RISP:
2005: .381
2006: .396
2007: .423
Polanco’s also a pretty good fielder too: in 540 innings he’s committed zero errors at second base. His fielding percentages in 2005 and 2006 were .993 and .989 with the Tigers. The solid hitting, the clutch bat, the strong fielding … Polanco would be a major upgrade over the Wes Helms / Abraham Nunez mess the Phillies have.
On the other hand, you have to say that this deal was a success for the Phillies. Sure, they didn’t get anything for Polanco in the long run (Tejada has … how should I say this politely? … Legal problems) but in allowing Polanco to leave they allowed Chase Utley to become the best second baseman in the game. Can’t argue with that …
Briefly, I’ll discuss Padilla and Wagner … The Phillies had little choice but to allow Billy Wagner to go. Wagner was clearly unimpressed with the direction the Phillies were on and the lure of playing in New York for the Mets was too much for him to ignore. As a Phillie Wagner was what the team needed after the Jose Mesa era: a lights-out closer who’d get a 1, 2, 3 ninth-inning night after night. As a Phillie Wagner saved 59 of 66 opportunities. As a Met, he’s converted on 55 of 61. Pretty similar. I haven’t noticed any decline in his skills:
K/9 BB/9
2004: 12.5 / 1.3 (as Phillie)
2005: 11.2 / 2.6 (ditto)
2006: 12.3 / 2.7 (as Met)
2007: 12.6 / 2.6 (ditto)
His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), on the other hand, is rising:
FIP:
2004: 2.28
2005: 2.56
2006: 2.87
2007: 3.20
The Phillies clearly miss Wagner now, with their merry-go-round of Tom Gordon, Brett Myers and Antonio Alfonseca. This defection has hurt the Phillies, but it was a decision that was purely out of their control.
The decision to deal Vicente Padilla is simply indefensible. Dealt to the Texas Rangers for Ricardo Rodriguez prior to the 2006 season, the Phillies promptly cut Rodriguez in Spring Training while Padilla went 15-10 with a 4.50 ERA. While Padilla is struggling this season (3-8, 6.57 ERA), this trade was still a blunder. The Phillies dealt away a player they had invested significant time and money developing for … nothing. Ouch.
Tomorrow, the 2006 X-Files.
An off-day for the Phillies today before they square up for a three-game series with the Cincinnati Reds, arguably the worst team in the majors right now. Sadly, the Phillies won't get to pick on Eric Milton, but they ought to cleanup on the Reds pitching otherwise. Kyle Kenderick makes the start for the Phillies tonight, his third career big league start.
Speaking of starting pitching, J.D.Durbin will make his MLB debut against the Mets this weekend during the double-header. Durbin is 2-4 with a 4.55 ERA this season. He's been almost entirely off my radar screen as a player, never really getting a mention as a top Phillies prospect, so I wonder how he'll do. In the long run, I suspect that the Phillies will move Brett Myers back into the rotation when he returns soon, as the Phillies don't want two rookies who started the season in the minors filling their rotation. It is just as well: Antonia Alfonseca is doing quite well as the team's closer these days.
Labels: Alfonseca, Durbin, Kenderick, Michaels, Myers, Padilla, Polanco, Rhodes, Rowand, Thome, Wagner
