Thursday, January 31, 2008
Pedro Feliz
Ask any real baseball fan who is the greatest third baseman of all-time is and they’ll name a Phillie: Mike Schmidt. This is an important position on the field symbolically for the Phillies and the recent history the position has for the team is sad: Scott Rolen was supposed to be Schmidt’s heir as the face of the team, and he was exceptionally talented at the plate and in the field, but his attitude and feuds got him shipped westward to St. Louis, and, more recently, to the frozen north of Canada.
The Phillies signed David Bell in 2003 to fill the void, but Bell was a disaster offensively at the plate (though a superstar with his glove). In 2007 the team wanted to turn over a new leaf, but they didn't get it.
Simply put, the Phillies are getting awful production from their third baseman and the problems reached a nadir here in the Post-Scott Rolen, Post-David Bell era.
Wes Helms. Abraham Nunez. Greg Dobbs. Russell Branyan. These were the faces the Phillies tried to utilize to fill the void Bell and Rolen’s departures have caused. How well did they do? No team in baseball, aside from maybe the Pittsburgh Pirates, got worse production from their third basemen.
While division rivals Marlins (i.e. Miguel Cabrera), the Mets (i.e., David Wright) and the Braves (i.e. Chipper Jones) ranked #1, #2 and #3 respectively in OPS for third basemen in 2007, the Phillies ranked sixteenth of sixteen teams:
NL East 3B OPS: (rank)
Marlins: .956 (1st)
Mets: .951 (2nd)
Braves: .944 (3rd)
Nationals: .794 (7th)
Phillies: .688 (16th)
The Phillies 3B’s also ranked sixteenth in runs scored, fourteenth in RBIs, fifteenth in home runs and sixteenth in extra-base hits. They did well in an area where nobody wants to do well: the Phillies 3B’s ranked third in grounding into double plays. Helms, for example, hit .246 (.297 OBP), with just five home runs and thirty-nine RBI, while grounding into ten double plays. Here comes Pedro Feliz, who signed a two-year deal worth a little over $8 mil to play for the Phillies. The right-handed hitting Feliz had an OPS of just .708 in 2007. The problem with Feliz’s game is that he’s a free-swinger who doesn’t bother to work counts. He saw just 3.3 pitches per plate appearance in 2007. It shows in his OBP, which has been below .300 for the last three seasons:
OBP:
2004: .305
2005: .295
2006: .282
2007: .290
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF).
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
This is, simply put, awful. Wes Helms, who flopped at third base after the Phillies signed him from the Marlins, posted a better OBP … The no-hitting Abraham Nunez had a better OBP too: .318 … What Feliz brings to the table that Nunez and, to a lesser extent Helms and Dobbs lack, is power. Not a lot of power, mind you, but more than what the Phillies have been seeing from their third basemen. Feliz’s isolated power at the plate (ISO) was .165 in 2007. The Phillies 3B’s had an ISO of .113, so unquestionably Feliz would be an upgrade, if his 2004-2007 performances hold steady. He’s a consistent 30+ double / 20+ home run hitter.
According to the 2008 Bill James Handbook, Feliz will hit 18 home runs and 70 RBI for the Phillies in 2008. Feliz will have 59 Runs Created, which is basically what he’s done for the last several seasons, or 4.26 Runs Created per 27 Outs. These aren’t great numbers, and would make Feliz one of the Phillies weakest offensive performers, but they are better than those Wes Helms or Abraham Nunez would have given the Phillies in 2008. For the record, Helms projects at 5.02 and Nunez at 3.17.
So the bottom-line is that I'm not impressed by Feliz's skills. Why am I not unhappy with the Phillies decision to sign him? Well, given that Feliz will be hitting #7 or #8 in the lineup, Feliz's ability to draw walks and get on base isn't all that important. Drawing a walk with two outs and the pitcher on-deck is tantamont to gauranteeing that J.Roll will lead-off the next inning. It isn't setting up Cole Hamels for an RBI situation. Down in the lower spots of the lineup you need someone with a little pop to their bat to sting the opposition with a solo-shot home run, because you aren't really setting your team up for the big inning when the pitcher is going to bat. Feliz's ability to slug the ball is superior to that of Helms and Nunez, so this is a signing that makes a lot of sense. If he hits a few more solo home runs than Nunez & Helms, his presence will help the Phillies offense. I think Feliz will hit 25-to-30 home runs in 2008. He may only have 65-70 RBI, but he'll sting the opposition with a few late home runs and that might help the Phillies here and there.
Welcome to Philly, Pedro Feliz.
(9) comments
The Phillies signed David Bell in 2003 to fill the void, but Bell was a disaster offensively at the plate (though a superstar with his glove). In 2007 the team wanted to turn over a new leaf, but they didn't get it.
Simply put, the Phillies are getting awful production from their third baseman and the problems reached a nadir here in the Post-Scott Rolen, Post-David Bell era.
Wes Helms. Abraham Nunez. Greg Dobbs. Russell Branyan. These were the faces the Phillies tried to utilize to fill the void Bell and Rolen’s departures have caused. How well did they do? No team in baseball, aside from maybe the Pittsburgh Pirates, got worse production from their third basemen.
While division rivals Marlins (i.e. Miguel Cabrera), the Mets (i.e., David Wright) and the Braves (i.e. Chipper Jones) ranked #1, #2 and #3 respectively in OPS for third basemen in 2007, the Phillies ranked sixteenth of sixteen teams:
NL East 3B OPS: (rank)
Marlins: .956 (1st)
Mets: .951 (2nd)
Braves: .944 (3rd)
Nationals: .794 (7th)
Phillies: .688 (16th)
The Phillies 3B’s also ranked sixteenth in runs scored, fourteenth in RBIs, fifteenth in home runs and sixteenth in extra-base hits. They did well in an area where nobody wants to do well: the Phillies 3B’s ranked third in grounding into double plays. Helms, for example, hit .246 (.297 OBP), with just five home runs and thirty-nine RBI, while grounding into ten double plays. Here comes Pedro Feliz, who signed a two-year deal worth a little over $8 mil to play for the Phillies. The right-handed hitting Feliz had an OPS of just .708 in 2007. The problem with Feliz’s game is that he’s a free-swinger who doesn’t bother to work counts. He saw just 3.3 pitches per plate appearance in 2007. It shows in his OBP, which has been below .300 for the last three seasons:
OBP:
2004: .305
2005: .295
2006: .282
2007: .290
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF).
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
This is, simply put, awful. Wes Helms, who flopped at third base after the Phillies signed him from the Marlins, posted a better OBP … The no-hitting Abraham Nunez had a better OBP too: .318 … What Feliz brings to the table that Nunez and, to a lesser extent Helms and Dobbs lack, is power. Not a lot of power, mind you, but more than what the Phillies have been seeing from their third basemen. Feliz’s isolated power at the plate (ISO) was .165 in 2007. The Phillies 3B’s had an ISO of .113, so unquestionably Feliz would be an upgrade, if his 2004-2007 performances hold steady. He’s a consistent 30+ double / 20+ home run hitter.
According to the 2008 Bill James Handbook, Feliz will hit 18 home runs and 70 RBI for the Phillies in 2008. Feliz will have 59 Runs Created, which is basically what he’s done for the last several seasons, or 4.26 Runs Created per 27 Outs. These aren’t great numbers, and would make Feliz one of the Phillies weakest offensive performers, but they are better than those Wes Helms or Abraham Nunez would have given the Phillies in 2008. For the record, Helms projects at 5.02 and Nunez at 3.17.
So the bottom-line is that I'm not impressed by Feliz's skills. Why am I not unhappy with the Phillies decision to sign him? Well, given that Feliz will be hitting #7 or #8 in the lineup, Feliz's ability to draw walks and get on base isn't all that important. Drawing a walk with two outs and the pitcher on-deck is tantamont to gauranteeing that J.Roll will lead-off the next inning. It isn't setting up Cole Hamels for an RBI situation. Down in the lower spots of the lineup you need someone with a little pop to their bat to sting the opposition with a solo-shot home run, because you aren't really setting your team up for the big inning when the pitcher is going to bat. Feliz's ability to slug the ball is superior to that of Helms and Nunez, so this is a signing that makes a lot of sense. If he hits a few more solo home runs than Nunez & Helms, his presence will help the Phillies offense. I think Feliz will hit 25-to-30 home runs in 2008. He may only have 65-70 RBI, but he'll sting the opposition with a few late home runs and that might help the Phillies here and there.
Welcome to Philly, Pedro Feliz.
Labels: Dobbs, Feliz, Helms, Nunez, Third Base
Monday, December 03, 2007
BCS BS
Alright … Today I was supposed to post my Season in Review for Pitching, but I’ve gotten a little bit behind because it turns out there was a lot more I wanted to say about pitching than I intended. So we’re going to comment on a few odds ‘n ends sort of things before talking about subjects other than baseball.
No movement on the Aaron Rowand front. No movement on any front, really. This has been a sloooowwwww off-season. Eventually Rowand will sign a massive 5 or 6 year deal worth $70-80 million, but not any time soon. I think teams are waiting to see how the Yankees and Mets play out their negotiations with the Twins for Johan Santana before they jump. Once Santana is unloaded and the A’s decide what they want for Dan Haren, I think you’ll see Rowand, Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse finally find homes.
Don’t count on the Phillies being too active. Now that they have Brad Lidge on the roster, I honestly think they might be out of moves. With Mike Lowell back in Boston, there are no available third basemen for them to scoop up, and with Jon Garland in Anaheim, I think their target for a trade for starting pitching is gone. This is the roster that the Phillies will probably go to Opening Day with.
Too bad Randy Wold inked a one-year deal with the Padres, because I wanted to see if the Phillies could re-sign him and bring him home. Oh well.
So the Eagles season is basically finished with their 28-24 loss to the Seattle Seahawks yesterday. After this loss and last week’s 31-28 loss to the Patriots, the 5-7 Eagles don’t have much of a shot. The NFC East title is out of reach, about to be claimed by the Cowboys. The Eagles have to win next Sunday’s game with the New York Giants because a loss to them means that the Eagles can’t catch them for wildcard slot #1. After the Giants there are three teams locked in at 6-6 (Minnesota, Detroit and Arizona) and then there are a slew of 5-7 teams with the Eagles. The Eagles aren’t a lost cause – they beat Detroit and Minnesota earlier in the season, remember, so they own tie-breakers – but the road is pretty tough. They basically have to win every game from here on out. My gut tells me that we’ll soon see Kevin Kolb making his NFL debut.
College Football: another year, another BCS controversy. Isn’t about time to junk this idiotic idea? I know college football doesn’t want to kill the BCS because it means the end of the traditional bowl system, but the fact that you have a two-loss team like LSU and a pretender like Ohio State battling it out for the National Title while the undefeated Hawaii Warriors aren’t playing for a National Title is absurd.
After all of those seasons watching teams forced to play in other bowls rather than meeting for a climatic championship game (Penn State and Nebraska in 1994, Michigan and Nebraska in 1997), the BCS was meant to preserve the lucrative bowl system and still get a consensus #1 vs. #2 match-up. Does it ever really accomplish that? Honestly, I think there was less controversy about the National Champ before the BCS, back when Miami would go 12-0 and you’d say, “Yes, that’s the best team, no question.”
This year’s match-up features Ohio State, a Big Ten team with a soft schedule that didn’t have the burden of playing in a conference title game, against LSU, a team with two losses. If Ohio State wins, the Big Ten gets away with highway robbery: they get a national champ despite having a conference full of mediocre teams that play nobody and not having their team leap through the hurdle of a conference championship game.
If LSU wins, then it is chaos. Utter, utter chaos. How do you give LSU the title if Hawaii wins the Sugar Bowl? How do the Tigers get to be #1 when the Warriors went undefeated? How does one-loss Kansas get to be excluded when two loss LSU wins it?
Other teams have finished their regular seasons undefeated and never been given a chance at a National Title game: Utah in 2004 and Boise State last season in particular come to mind. Both of those teams proved they deserved to be in their games with impressive wins over their opponents.
Some of the match-ups are absurd: how did USC and Illinois get into a BCS bowl? Why did the people who run the Rose Bowl take Illinois over Missouri? Afraid of competition for USC if they took Missouri? I won’t even watch the Rose Bowl this year, it is a real snoozer of a match-up. Why is Arizona State relegated to the Holiday Bowl?
My alma mater, Pitt, helped to make the weekend controversial with their 13-9 win over the West Virginia Mountaineers on Saturday. The Panthers, who limped into the game with a 4-7 record, were 28 point underdogs to WVU and still managed to win the game thanks to some tough running by tailback LaSean McCoy run 38 times for 148 yards, Pitt’s defense made terrific plays – they held WVU’s vaunted rushing attack to just 183 net yards – and WVU’s kicker missed two chip-shot field goals. It really fills you with confidence about Pitt’s 2008 prospects since McCoy and starting QB Pat Bostick are both freshmen.
How about some love for the Big East? WVU nearly played for a National Title. They went 5-0 in Bowl games in 2006. Connecticut had one of the best defenses in the country. Cincinnati was terrific, as was Rutgers. The Big East is clearly a great conference and definitely a better one than the Big Ten. Hey, at least one of our teams didn’t lose to a Division I-AA school.
(1) comments
No movement on the Aaron Rowand front. No movement on any front, really. This has been a sloooowwwww off-season. Eventually Rowand will sign a massive 5 or 6 year deal worth $70-80 million, but not any time soon. I think teams are waiting to see how the Yankees and Mets play out their negotiations with the Twins for Johan Santana before they jump. Once Santana is unloaded and the A’s decide what they want for Dan Haren, I think you’ll see Rowand, Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse finally find homes.
Don’t count on the Phillies being too active. Now that they have Brad Lidge on the roster, I honestly think they might be out of moves. With Mike Lowell back in Boston, there are no available third basemen for them to scoop up, and with Jon Garland in Anaheim, I think their target for a trade for starting pitching is gone. This is the roster that the Phillies will probably go to Opening Day with.
Too bad Randy Wold inked a one-year deal with the Padres, because I wanted to see if the Phillies could re-sign him and bring him home. Oh well.
So the Eagles season is basically finished with their 28-24 loss to the Seattle Seahawks yesterday. After this loss and last week’s 31-28 loss to the Patriots, the 5-7 Eagles don’t have much of a shot. The NFC East title is out of reach, about to be claimed by the Cowboys. The Eagles have to win next Sunday’s game with the New York Giants because a loss to them means that the Eagles can’t catch them for wildcard slot #1. After the Giants there are three teams locked in at 6-6 (Minnesota, Detroit and Arizona) and then there are a slew of 5-7 teams with the Eagles. The Eagles aren’t a lost cause – they beat Detroit and Minnesota earlier in the season, remember, so they own tie-breakers – but the road is pretty tough. They basically have to win every game from here on out. My gut tells me that we’ll soon see Kevin Kolb making his NFL debut.
College Football: another year, another BCS controversy. Isn’t about time to junk this idiotic idea? I know college football doesn’t want to kill the BCS because it means the end of the traditional bowl system, but the fact that you have a two-loss team like LSU and a pretender like Ohio State battling it out for the National Title while the undefeated Hawaii Warriors aren’t playing for a National Title is absurd.
After all of those seasons watching teams forced to play in other bowls rather than meeting for a climatic championship game (Penn State and Nebraska in 1994, Michigan and Nebraska in 1997), the BCS was meant to preserve the lucrative bowl system and still get a consensus #1 vs. #2 match-up. Does it ever really accomplish that? Honestly, I think there was less controversy about the National Champ before the BCS, back when Miami would go 12-0 and you’d say, “Yes, that’s the best team, no question.”
This year’s match-up features Ohio State, a Big Ten team with a soft schedule that didn’t have the burden of playing in a conference title game, against LSU, a team with two losses. If Ohio State wins, the Big Ten gets away with highway robbery: they get a national champ despite having a conference full of mediocre teams that play nobody and not having their team leap through the hurdle of a conference championship game.
If LSU wins, then it is chaos. Utter, utter chaos. How do you give LSU the title if Hawaii wins the Sugar Bowl? How do the Tigers get to be #1 when the Warriors went undefeated? How does one-loss Kansas get to be excluded when two loss LSU wins it?
Other teams have finished their regular seasons undefeated and never been given a chance at a National Title game: Utah in 2004 and Boise State last season in particular come to mind. Both of those teams proved they deserved to be in their games with impressive wins over their opponents.
Some of the match-ups are absurd: how did USC and Illinois get into a BCS bowl? Why did the people who run the Rose Bowl take Illinois over Missouri? Afraid of competition for USC if they took Missouri? I won’t even watch the Rose Bowl this year, it is a real snoozer of a match-up. Why is Arizona State relegated to the Holiday Bowl?
My alma mater, Pitt, helped to make the weekend controversial with their 13-9 win over the West Virginia Mountaineers on Saturday. The Panthers, who limped into the game with a 4-7 record, were 28 point underdogs to WVU and still managed to win the game thanks to some tough running by tailback LaSean McCoy run 38 times for 148 yards, Pitt’s defense made terrific plays – they held WVU’s vaunted rushing attack to just 183 net yards – and WVU’s kicker missed two chip-shot field goals. It really fills you with confidence about Pitt’s 2008 prospects since McCoy and starting QB Pat Bostick are both freshmen.
How about some love for the Big East? WVU nearly played for a National Title. They went 5-0 in Bowl games in 2006. Connecticut had one of the best defenses in the country. Cincinnati was terrific, as was Rutgers. The Big East is clearly a great conference and definitely a better one than the Big Ten. Hey, at least one of our teams didn’t lose to a Division I-AA school.
Labels: Odds 'n Ends, Rowand, Third Base, Wolf
Thursday, November 08, 2007
The Lidge Trade, Gold Gloves and Future Deals...
You may have noticed that A Citizens Blog has throttled down to 2-3 posts a week from the customary 5. Simply put, I’ve been busy and there hasn’t been much to talk about. Presently I am working on the Season In Review series, but work has been a disaster of late and I’ve been tired. I also turn sedentary in the winter time, so being energetic isn’t happening.
Let’s start with the winter meetings … Lots of deals get done at the Winter Meeting of the GM’s every year and I’d expect this year to be no different. The Phillies are in the market for pitching help and for a new third baseman. So far they’ve taken the first step to address their bullpen issues by dealing Geoff Geary, Michael Bourn and Mike Costanzo to the Houston Astros for Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett.
The Phillies give up … Michael Bourn, a fast player who wowed the Phillies by swiping 18 bases in 19 tries. In one particularly memorable game Bourn entered the game as a pinch-runner for Pat Burrell and proceeded to swipe second base, then third base, and scored on a weak grounder by Wes Helms because he was simply too fast to catch.
The thing about Bourn was that he was going to be the Phillies fourth outfielder in 2008, a defensive replacement / designated runner. Shane Victorino is going to slide into Aaron Rowand’s slot in centerfield and Jayson Werth seems destined to play rightfield for the Phillies. Both Victorino and Werth are quick but pack some power in their bats. Bourn is a one-trick pony: he runs very, very fast. I’m sure as a full-time player with the Astros he’ll steal 50-60 bases, but he’s a little like Vince Coleman, a speedster whose On-Base and Slugging Percentages weren’t so good. I’m sure Chris Roberson can fulfill the fourth outfielder slot for the Phillies just as well.
The Phillies give up … Geoff Geary, a solid set-up man whom the Phillies can ill-afford to part with. Last season Geary’s stats weren’t so great: 3-2, 4.41 ERA, 1.05 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, and 5.0 K/9. He benefited from strong defense behind him: the Phillies DER behind him was .704, so his defense-neutral stats say that he pitched worse than his ERA: his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA was 4.93. That is a great deal higher than it was his last two seasons: 3.48 FIP in 2005 and 3.58 in 2006. Is Geary slipping or have the Phillies just lost the man they need to set up Lidge’s ninth inning saves? Time shall tell.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
DER – Defense Efficiency Ratio: (Batters Faced – (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) / (Batters Faced – (Home Runs, Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) How often fielders convert balls put into play into outs.
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
Zone Rating (ZR): Is a stat which measures a player’s defensive ability by measuring plays they should have made. Admittedly, this is a stat left open to subjective opinions.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
And the Phillies give up … Mike Costanzo, the Phillies second-round pick (first overall) in the 2005 Draft is a Philly native, so it is a shame he’ll never be able to play for his hometown team. After working his way from Short-Season Single-A in 2005 to Advanced Single-A in 2006 to Double-A in 2007, Costanzo seemed poised to travel north to Allentown to play with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs in 2008. A third baseman, he is not in the Phillies plans for 2008 because he needs time in Triple-A to develop his skills. Costanzo is a solid prospect and one of the few potential everyday players being developed in the Phillies system. As a Reading Phillie he had a .368 OBP with 27 Home Runs and 86 RBI. He had a 116 OPS+ in the Eastern League. He might be the piece of the puzzle that the Phillies miss the most.
The Phillies get … Bruntlett, a classic light-hitting utility infielder. Say hello to the new Abraham Nunez.
The Phillies also get … Lidge, the prize of the deal. Lidge succeeded Billy Wagner as the Astros closer – hey, the second time that the Phillies have taken the Astros closer – and converted 29 of 33 saves in 2004, 42 of 46 in 2005, 32 of 38 in 2006 and just 19 of 27 in 2007. On the surface it looks like Lidge slipped in 2007, but his FIP ERA was right near what it was in 2006: 3.73 to 3.70. I love that Lidge gets a lot of strikeouts: 16.5 K/9 in 2004 (157 strikeouts in 94 & 2/3 innings!), 13.6 in 2005, and 11.9 in 2006 & 2007. He’s a strikeout machine like Wagner was, not a finesse-oriented closer like Tom Gordon. Just what this team needs. The only big minus I have about Lidge is that he gives up a lot of walks: 4.1 BB/9 the last two seasons.
Generally, I give the trade a qualified thumbs up. I think it will benefit the Phillies in the short-term, but I fear that trading Costanzo might come back to haunt the Phillies.
Let’s move onto the Phillies other needs … The market for bats at third is going to be pretty thin this season. You’re choices are going to be A-Rod, Mike Lowell, and … That’s about it. A-Rod’s $30 million prices him out of the Phillies budget, so Mike Lowell is pretty much it for the Phillies. Expect to see Lowell pursed by the Yankees pretty aggressively and for the Red Sox to spend money to keep him out of the Bronx.
The Phillies prospects for obtaining Lowell’s services are pretty bleak, in my opinion.
So the Phillies will likely turn to another trade. Much talk has been made of the Phillies dealing for the Rockies Garrett Atkins, because the Rockies have a very talented prospect poised to play third base, but I am skeptical that the Rockies would break-up any part of their formidable roster after their astonishing run to the World Series. No, expect the Rockies to keep Atkins or demand a King’s Ransom for his services.
I’ve said this in the past, but a key factor in whether or not a deal gets done is whether or not teams have done business in the past. The White Sox and Phillies have had numerous deals with one another since Pat Gillick took over the reins as Phillies GM: Jim Thome-for-Aaron Rowand, Gio Gonzalez/Gavin Floyd-for-Freddy Garcia, Tadahito Iguchi-for-Mike Dubee, etc. There has been a lot of traffic between the South Side of Chicago and Philly now for the last few months, so it is reasonable to assume that it will continue.
The Phillies have twin concerns: pitching and a bat at third base. Expect the team to attempt to pull-off a deal where they’ll ship some minor-league players to Chicago in exchange for Joe Crede and Jon Garland.
Crede had a terrible season in 2007 (.258 OBP, 4 Home Runs and 22 RBI in just 47 Games), but he’s a powerful bat (30 Home Runs, 31 Doubles, 94 RBI, and .223 ISO in 2006) who would be a definite upgrade over Wes Helms (5 Home Runs, 39 RBI, .297 OBP in 112 Games). Garland, a Jon Lieber-type pitcher who doesn’t surrender many walks or home runs (2.46 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9), would fit in well with the Phillies rotation and would be a good arm to round out the Phillies rotation in 2008 (Hamels, Moyer, Eaton, Myers and Garland), assuming that Brett Myers returns to the rotation.
What could the Phillies offer from their meager farm system? Greg Golson, currently playing Double-A ball with Mike Costanzo’s old team in Reading, is a position player with enough skills to entice teams. Jeremy Slayden, a slow-footed slugger from Advanced Single-A Clearwater, is a talented player who has limited prospects of playing with the newly speedy Phillies. Slayden would fit right in the American League. The White Sox seem intent on gobbling up Phillies pitching, so why not package J.D. Durbin or J.A. Happ or Kyle Drabek as part of the deal? Or Kyle Kendrick, now that the Phillies can return Myers to the rotation. He's a proven starter the Phillies can shop. The Phillies could probably part with three or four of these players and easily continue to nurture talent in the minors. Crede and Garland would be key parts to the Phillies 2008 season, while Durbin, Kendrick, et al, would go a long way towards helping the White Sox rebuilding program.
Forget free agency or a trade with the Twins for Johan Santana, this is the deal that the Phillies are going to make this off-season and it is the only one that makes sense. Moving along …
It’s almost time for award season. AL and NL Rookie of the Year on Monday, Managers of the Year next Wednesday, the AL Cy Young on Tuesday, the NL Cy Young next Thursday, then the AL MVP on Monday the 19th and the NL MVP on the 20th. I’ll predict the awards on Monday. So far baseball has handed out some awards: the Gold Gloves were awarded the other day and I was pleasantly surprised.
Two Phillies won awards: Jimmy Rollins and Aaron Rowand. I hate raining on the parade of a Phillie, but how in the world did Aaron Rowand win this award? This has to be a reward for meritorious play in 2005 with the White Sox, because Rowand is terrible these days. According to The Hardball Times Relative Zone Rating (RZR), Rowand was sixth of seven NL centerfielders in 2007 in RZR and ninth of eleven in 2006. Shane Victorino easily bested Rowand in centerfield in 2006, turning in better RZR numbers, committing fewer errors and getting more assists per inning played. In 2007, Rowand played nearly all of the Phillies defensive innings, but there were a multitude of players who turned in better performances. File this one under: “Huh?”
Jimmy Rollins got the Gold Glove for short, which again, I am skeptical about. Rollins finished ninth of fourteen N.L. shortstops in RZR. J.Roll displayed some nice range, with 65 plays on balls hit outside of his zone, but the Pirates Jack Wilson had 78 in 300 fewer innings of work. To J.Roll’s credit he was third in Fielding Percentage and second in double plays started, but I am not sure that he really was the best defensive shortstop in the N.L.
To my pleasant surprise baseball chose not to award Derek Jeter with a Gold Glove for the first time in recent memory. The decision to award Kevin “The Greek God of Walks” Youkilis the Gold Glove for first base was astonishing: Youkilis, a DH-type, led the AL in RZR at first base. Alright, being the best defensive first baseman isn’t much to boast about, but it is something and it strikes me that the pundits got it exactly right. Well done.
I’ll complete my current projects soon enough. Keep reading…
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Let’s start with the winter meetings … Lots of deals get done at the Winter Meeting of the GM’s every year and I’d expect this year to be no different. The Phillies are in the market for pitching help and for a new third baseman. So far they’ve taken the first step to address their bullpen issues by dealing Geoff Geary, Michael Bourn and Mike Costanzo to the Houston Astros for Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett.
The Phillies give up … Michael Bourn, a fast player who wowed the Phillies by swiping 18 bases in 19 tries. In one particularly memorable game Bourn entered the game as a pinch-runner for Pat Burrell and proceeded to swipe second base, then third base, and scored on a weak grounder by Wes Helms because he was simply too fast to catch.
The thing about Bourn was that he was going to be the Phillies fourth outfielder in 2008, a defensive replacement / designated runner. Shane Victorino is going to slide into Aaron Rowand’s slot in centerfield and Jayson Werth seems destined to play rightfield for the Phillies. Both Victorino and Werth are quick but pack some power in their bats. Bourn is a one-trick pony: he runs very, very fast. I’m sure as a full-time player with the Astros he’ll steal 50-60 bases, but he’s a little like Vince Coleman, a speedster whose On-Base and Slugging Percentages weren’t so good. I’m sure Chris Roberson can fulfill the fourth outfielder slot for the Phillies just as well.
The Phillies give up … Geoff Geary, a solid set-up man whom the Phillies can ill-afford to part with. Last season Geary’s stats weren’t so great: 3-2, 4.41 ERA, 1.05 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, and 5.0 K/9. He benefited from strong defense behind him: the Phillies DER behind him was .704, so his defense-neutral stats say that he pitched worse than his ERA: his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA was 4.93. That is a great deal higher than it was his last two seasons: 3.48 FIP in 2005 and 3.58 in 2006. Is Geary slipping or have the Phillies just lost the man they need to set up Lidge’s ninth inning saves? Time shall tell.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
DER – Defense Efficiency Ratio: (Batters Faced – (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) / (Batters Faced – (Home Runs, Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) How often fielders convert balls put into play into outs.
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
Zone Rating (ZR): Is a stat which measures a player’s defensive ability by measuring plays they should have made. Admittedly, this is a stat left open to subjective opinions.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
And the Phillies give up … Mike Costanzo, the Phillies second-round pick (first overall) in the 2005 Draft is a Philly native, so it is a shame he’ll never be able to play for his hometown team. After working his way from Short-Season Single-A in 2005 to Advanced Single-A in 2006 to Double-A in 2007, Costanzo seemed poised to travel north to Allentown to play with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs in 2008. A third baseman, he is not in the Phillies plans for 2008 because he needs time in Triple-A to develop his skills. Costanzo is a solid prospect and one of the few potential everyday players being developed in the Phillies system. As a Reading Phillie he had a .368 OBP with 27 Home Runs and 86 RBI. He had a 116 OPS+ in the Eastern League. He might be the piece of the puzzle that the Phillies miss the most.
The Phillies get … Bruntlett, a classic light-hitting utility infielder. Say hello to the new Abraham Nunez.
The Phillies also get … Lidge, the prize of the deal. Lidge succeeded Billy Wagner as the Astros closer – hey, the second time that the Phillies have taken the Astros closer – and converted 29 of 33 saves in 2004, 42 of 46 in 2005, 32 of 38 in 2006 and just 19 of 27 in 2007. On the surface it looks like Lidge slipped in 2007, but his FIP ERA was right near what it was in 2006: 3.73 to 3.70. I love that Lidge gets a lot of strikeouts: 16.5 K/9 in 2004 (157 strikeouts in 94 & 2/3 innings!), 13.6 in 2005, and 11.9 in 2006 & 2007. He’s a strikeout machine like Wagner was, not a finesse-oriented closer like Tom Gordon. Just what this team needs. The only big minus I have about Lidge is that he gives up a lot of walks: 4.1 BB/9 the last two seasons.
Generally, I give the trade a qualified thumbs up. I think it will benefit the Phillies in the short-term, but I fear that trading Costanzo might come back to haunt the Phillies.
Let’s move onto the Phillies other needs … The market for bats at third is going to be pretty thin this season. You’re choices are going to be A-Rod, Mike Lowell, and … That’s about it. A-Rod’s $30 million prices him out of the Phillies budget, so Mike Lowell is pretty much it for the Phillies. Expect to see Lowell pursed by the Yankees pretty aggressively and for the Red Sox to spend money to keep him out of the Bronx.
The Phillies prospects for obtaining Lowell’s services are pretty bleak, in my opinion.
So the Phillies will likely turn to another trade. Much talk has been made of the Phillies dealing for the Rockies Garrett Atkins, because the Rockies have a very talented prospect poised to play third base, but I am skeptical that the Rockies would break-up any part of their formidable roster after their astonishing run to the World Series. No, expect the Rockies to keep Atkins or demand a King’s Ransom for his services.
I’ve said this in the past, but a key factor in whether or not a deal gets done is whether or not teams have done business in the past. The White Sox and Phillies have had numerous deals with one another since Pat Gillick took over the reins as Phillies GM: Jim Thome-for-Aaron Rowand, Gio Gonzalez/Gavin Floyd-for-Freddy Garcia, Tadahito Iguchi-for-Mike Dubee, etc. There has been a lot of traffic between the South Side of Chicago and Philly now for the last few months, so it is reasonable to assume that it will continue.
The Phillies have twin concerns: pitching and a bat at third base. Expect the team to attempt to pull-off a deal where they’ll ship some minor-league players to Chicago in exchange for Joe Crede and Jon Garland.
Crede had a terrible season in 2007 (.258 OBP, 4 Home Runs and 22 RBI in just 47 Games), but he’s a powerful bat (30 Home Runs, 31 Doubles, 94 RBI, and .223 ISO in 2006) who would be a definite upgrade over Wes Helms (5 Home Runs, 39 RBI, .297 OBP in 112 Games). Garland, a Jon Lieber-type pitcher who doesn’t surrender many walks or home runs (2.46 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9), would fit in well with the Phillies rotation and would be a good arm to round out the Phillies rotation in 2008 (Hamels, Moyer, Eaton, Myers and Garland), assuming that Brett Myers returns to the rotation.
What could the Phillies offer from their meager farm system? Greg Golson, currently playing Double-A ball with Mike Costanzo’s old team in Reading, is a position player with enough skills to entice teams. Jeremy Slayden, a slow-footed slugger from Advanced Single-A Clearwater, is a talented player who has limited prospects of playing with the newly speedy Phillies. Slayden would fit right in the American League. The White Sox seem intent on gobbling up Phillies pitching, so why not package J.D. Durbin or J.A. Happ or Kyle Drabek as part of the deal? Or Kyle Kendrick, now that the Phillies can return Myers to the rotation. He's a proven starter the Phillies can shop. The Phillies could probably part with three or four of these players and easily continue to nurture talent in the minors. Crede and Garland would be key parts to the Phillies 2008 season, while Durbin, Kendrick, et al, would go a long way towards helping the White Sox rebuilding program.
Forget free agency or a trade with the Twins for Johan Santana, this is the deal that the Phillies are going to make this off-season and it is the only one that makes sense. Moving along …
It’s almost time for award season. AL and NL Rookie of the Year on Monday, Managers of the Year next Wednesday, the AL Cy Young on Tuesday, the NL Cy Young next Thursday, then the AL MVP on Monday the 19th and the NL MVP on the 20th. I’ll predict the awards on Monday. So far baseball has handed out some awards: the Gold Gloves were awarded the other day and I was pleasantly surprised.
Two Phillies won awards: Jimmy Rollins and Aaron Rowand. I hate raining on the parade of a Phillie, but how in the world did Aaron Rowand win this award? This has to be a reward for meritorious play in 2005 with the White Sox, because Rowand is terrible these days. According to The Hardball Times Relative Zone Rating (RZR), Rowand was sixth of seven NL centerfielders in 2007 in RZR and ninth of eleven in 2006. Shane Victorino easily bested Rowand in centerfield in 2006, turning in better RZR numbers, committing fewer errors and getting more assists per inning played. In 2007, Rowand played nearly all of the Phillies defensive innings, but there were a multitude of players who turned in better performances. File this one under: “Huh?”
Jimmy Rollins got the Gold Glove for short, which again, I am skeptical about. Rollins finished ninth of fourteen N.L. shortstops in RZR. J.Roll displayed some nice range, with 65 plays on balls hit outside of his zone, but the Pirates Jack Wilson had 78 in 300 fewer innings of work. To J.Roll’s credit he was third in Fielding Percentage and second in double plays started, but I am not sure that he really was the best defensive shortstop in the N.L.
To my pleasant surprise baseball chose not to award Derek Jeter with a Gold Glove for the first time in recent memory. The decision to award Kevin “The Greek God of Walks” Youkilis the Gold Glove for first base was astonishing: Youkilis, a DH-type, led the AL in RZR at first base. Alright, being the best defensive first baseman isn’t much to boast about, but it is something and it strikes me that the pundits got it exactly right. Well done.
I’ll complete my current projects soon enough. Keep reading…
Labels: Base-Stealing, Bourn, Bullpen, Geary, Gordon, Minors, Off-Season, Speed, Third Base, Wagner
Monday, August 06, 2007
Cold Play @ the Hot Corner
Grit. What a gritty performance from the Phillies in overcoming a 6-0 deficit to win over the Brewers 8-6 in Milwaukee and to cheat the Brewers from getting a series sweep. The Phillies were down 4-0 in the first inning, then 6-0 in the fifth, before entering the top of the ninth inning behind 6-1. The victory was keyed by a surprising player: Wes Helms, one of the Phillies much-maligned third baseman, who doubled home the winning runs in the top of the eleventh inning.
The victory does a lot for the Phillies, keeping them in the N.L. East hunt, just five games out of first place, and two and a half games out of the wildcard. For those interested in their recent history, at this point in 2006 the Phillies were 54-57 (today: 58-53, an improvement of four games), and the ’06 Phillies were twelve and a half games out of first place, although interestingly, the Phillies were just two and a half games out of the wildcard, which is exactly where they are right now!
Up next for the Phillies: an off-day. Tuesday starts a brand-new series for the Phillies, as they host the Florida Marlins and the new-look Atlanta Braves, then travel to Washington D.C. and Pittsburgh. I’ll actually be at the August 19th game in Pittsburgh against the Pirates at PNC Park. The Braves series is extremely important for the Phillies. They need to leap-frog the Braves to get into second and lock aim on the Mets. Psychologically, they cannot afford to be swept.
Rod Barajas is on the DL now too. Current tally of Phillies on the DL: nine, including, Freddy Garcia, Jon Lieber, Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn, Ryan Madson, Chase Utley, etc. That the Phillies would be in the N.L. East race with all of these guys out is a shocker.
Well, speaking of our friend, Mr. Helms, I thought that I might look at the play the Phillies are getting from their third basemen this season. Because the Phillies had the greatest third baseman of all-time, Mike Schmidt, on the team in the 1970’s & 1980’s, this is a position that gets a little scrutiny from time-to-time. Living in Schmidt’s shadow was problematic for Scot Rolen, for example, who was supposed to be the next Schmidt, but that never happened. The Phillies are not getting good play from their third basemen these days:
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
On-Base Percentage plus Slugging (OPS): OBP + SLG.
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF).
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
The Phillies rank fifteenth in the N.L. in OPS from third basemen at .700, just .002 better than the Padres. That is well-below the N.L. average of .788 (interestingly enough, A.L. 3B’s are much worse at .758 OPS). The Phillies 3B’s have the second-lowest slugging percentage at .375 (worst Cincinnati: .365), and they have the fourth-lowest On-Base Percentage at .325 (worse: San Francisco: .292; San Diego: .293, and the Nats at .321). Not surprisingly, the Marlins and Braves have two of the best 3B’s in the N.L., Miguel Cabrera (9.8 Runs Created / 27 Outs) and Chipper Jones (8.6 RC/27), followed by the Mets David Wright (7.9 RC/27).
So far the Phillies have used three players to play the hot corner:
Runs Created / 27 Outs:
Greg Dobbs: 4.7
Abraham Nunez: 3.2
Wes Helms: 3.0
To say the least, none of the three have covered themselves in glory. Dobbs is the strongest of the three, but I use that word loosely. Helms and Nunez are the primary targets of ire here. Helms was acquired from the Marlins to compete for the job of every day third baseman, and right now Helms isn’t making much or an argument for him to be considered a bench player. Helms is hitting just .192 with runners in scoring position and has just four home runs. Ouch.
But Helms is a super-star compared to Nunez, a player that I cannot fathom is still on the Phillies roster. Nunez is hitting .236 BA/RISP. What I hate about seeing Nunez’s bat in the Phillies lineup is how utterly devoid of power Nunez is at the plate. He hasn’t hit a home run in 208 plate appearances in 2007 … just two in 581 plate appearances as the Phillie total … and 63.6% of the balls he puts into play are gounrd-balls. Double play alert! Nunez has grounded into seven double plays in 2007, which is astonishing in that he doesn’t get to hit that often. Aaron Rowand has hit into fourteen, but he has more than double the plate appearances (463).
Defensively Nunez is pretty good … gotta give credit where credit is due … if he played enough innings his Relative Zone Rating (RZR) would be third in the N.L. (.754), just after Rolen (.757) and the San Francisco Giants Pedro Feliz (.766). Nunez is better, defensively speaking, then hitters like Wright (.727), Jones (.628), and Cabrera (.640). Helms is surprisingly ok with the glove too: .698.
So this is a position that the Phillies need to take a long, hard look at in 2008. Are Abraham Nunez, Wes Helms and Greg Dobbs the answer? I think not. I’m not sure that the Phillies want to give rookie Mike Costanzo, currently the starting third baseman of the Double-A Reading Phillies, the job either. Costanzo has done well in Reading (22 home runs, 66 RBI, .358 OBP), but this is a job for a veteran presence in the Phillies lineup.
Alright, tomorrow, a review of the month of July.
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The victory does a lot for the Phillies, keeping them in the N.L. East hunt, just five games out of first place, and two and a half games out of the wildcard. For those interested in their recent history, at this point in 2006 the Phillies were 54-57 (today: 58-53, an improvement of four games), and the ’06 Phillies were twelve and a half games out of first place, although interestingly, the Phillies were just two and a half games out of the wildcard, which is exactly where they are right now!
Up next for the Phillies: an off-day. Tuesday starts a brand-new series for the Phillies, as they host the Florida Marlins and the new-look Atlanta Braves, then travel to Washington D.C. and Pittsburgh. I’ll actually be at the August 19th game in Pittsburgh against the Pirates at PNC Park. The Braves series is extremely important for the Phillies. They need to leap-frog the Braves to get into second and lock aim on the Mets. Psychologically, they cannot afford to be swept.
Rod Barajas is on the DL now too. Current tally of Phillies on the DL: nine, including, Freddy Garcia, Jon Lieber, Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn, Ryan Madson, Chase Utley, etc. That the Phillies would be in the N.L. East race with all of these guys out is a shocker.
Well, speaking of our friend, Mr. Helms, I thought that I might look at the play the Phillies are getting from their third basemen this season. Because the Phillies had the greatest third baseman of all-time, Mike Schmidt, on the team in the 1970’s & 1980’s, this is a position that gets a little scrutiny from time-to-time. Living in Schmidt’s shadow was problematic for Scot Rolen, for example, who was supposed to be the next Schmidt, but that never happened. The Phillies are not getting good play from their third basemen these days:
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
On-Base Percentage plus Slugging (OPS): OBP + SLG.
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF).
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
The Phillies rank fifteenth in the N.L. in OPS from third basemen at .700, just .002 better than the Padres. That is well-below the N.L. average of .788 (interestingly enough, A.L. 3B’s are much worse at .758 OPS). The Phillies 3B’s have the second-lowest slugging percentage at .375 (worst Cincinnati: .365), and they have the fourth-lowest On-Base Percentage at .325 (worse: San Francisco: .292; San Diego: .293, and the Nats at .321). Not surprisingly, the Marlins and Braves have two of the best 3B’s in the N.L., Miguel Cabrera (9.8 Runs Created / 27 Outs) and Chipper Jones (8.6 RC/27), followed by the Mets David Wright (7.9 RC/27).
So far the Phillies have used three players to play the hot corner:
Runs Created / 27 Outs:
Greg Dobbs: 4.7
Abraham Nunez: 3.2
Wes Helms: 3.0
To say the least, none of the three have covered themselves in glory. Dobbs is the strongest of the three, but I use that word loosely. Helms and Nunez are the primary targets of ire here. Helms was acquired from the Marlins to compete for the job of every day third baseman, and right now Helms isn’t making much or an argument for him to be considered a bench player. Helms is hitting just .192 with runners in scoring position and has just four home runs. Ouch.
But Helms is a super-star compared to Nunez, a player that I cannot fathom is still on the Phillies roster. Nunez is hitting .236 BA/RISP. What I hate about seeing Nunez’s bat in the Phillies lineup is how utterly devoid of power Nunez is at the plate. He hasn’t hit a home run in 208 plate appearances in 2007 … just two in 581 plate appearances as the Phillie total … and 63.6% of the balls he puts into play are gounrd-balls. Double play alert! Nunez has grounded into seven double plays in 2007, which is astonishing in that he doesn’t get to hit that often. Aaron Rowand has hit into fourteen, but he has more than double the plate appearances (463).
Defensively Nunez is pretty good … gotta give credit where credit is due … if he played enough innings his Relative Zone Rating (RZR) would be third in the N.L. (.754), just after Rolen (.757) and the San Francisco Giants Pedro Feliz (.766). Nunez is better, defensively speaking, then hitters like Wright (.727), Jones (.628), and Cabrera (.640). Helms is surprisingly ok with the glove too: .698.
So this is a position that the Phillies need to take a long, hard look at in 2008. Are Abraham Nunez, Wes Helms and Greg Dobbs the answer? I think not. I’m not sure that the Phillies want to give rookie Mike Costanzo, currently the starting third baseman of the Double-A Reading Phillies, the job either. Costanzo has done well in Reading (22 home runs, 66 RBI, .358 OBP), but this is a job for a veteran presence in the Phillies lineup.
Alright, tomorrow, a review of the month of July.
Labels: Dobbs, Fielding, Helms, Nunez, Power-Hitting, Third Base
Monday, February 12, 2007
Nunez v. Helms
As I’ve noted, in broken record fashion in the past, the Phillies had a terrific defensive but horrifically offensively challenged third baseman the last several years with David Bell. Now, after three and a half years, the David Bell era is over and the Phillies move ahead with Abraham Nunez and Wes Helms as their prospective third base duo. The Phillies seem set to have Helms as the starter and back him up with Nunez, though I suspect that Nunez will get a lot of playing time in 2007.
Both right-handed hitters, Helms and Nunez have a few similarities. Both were used as utility infielders in 2007 by their respective teams. Nunez played 74 games at third, pinch-hit 41 times and played second and short a half-dozen times each. Helms pinch-hit 52 times, played 89 games at first base and another 24 at third for the Florida Marlins.
Here is how Bell, Nunez and Helms fared playing third in 2007:
Field Pct. / Range Factor
Bell: .945 / 2.78
Nunez: .959 / 2.66
Helms: .938 / 2.86
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
Fielding Percentage: (Putouts + Assists) / (Putouts + Assists + Errors). How often the player successfully handled the ball.
Range Factor: (Putouts + Assists) * 9 / IP. Essentially measures how much a player is involved in defensive plays.
Gross Productive Average (GPA): (1.8 * .OBP + .SLG) / 4 = .GPA. Invented by The Hardball Times Aaron Gleeman, GPA measures a players production by weighing his ability to get on base and hit with power. This is my preferred all-around stat.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). If you use ESPN’s version be advised that it is pitifully is out-of-date, however. James adjusted RC after the 2004 season ended.
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
Take some of Helms numbers in context: after all, he played a fraction (94 & 1/3) of the innings that Bell (781 & 1/3) and Nunez (632) did. Still, it suggests that he’ll play alright at third. Nunez is an individual whose reputation rests squarely on his ability to field the ball. The Pirates and Cardinals, his two previous teams, did not sign him for his ability to hit the ball. He’s the ultimate utility infielder. I suspect that his performance at third in 2007 was rather poor, and that even here Helms will be either an upgrade or simply no worse.
Helms will be a massive upgrade over Nunez offensively. There really is no good way to dress up Nunez offensive output. It is horrible. Let’s start with the raw stats. Nunex hit .211 with two home runs and 32 RBI in 322 At-Bats. Look a little deeper into the numbers and the picture is actually worse: Nunez GPA was just .205 in 2006. .205!!!! His On-Base Percentage was .303 and his slugging percentage was a mind-bogglingly awful .273. Nunez Isolated Power at the plate was just .062 … He had just 14 extra-base hits in those 322 At-Bats. Nunez contribution to the Phillies offense was pretty much nil. He had 27 Runs Created in 2006, and if you break that down by how many Outs he made, then you discover that he scored 1.98 per 27 outs. An entire team of Abraham Nunez’s would scored basically 2 runs a game, or 321 over the course of a season. The Phillies actually scored 865.
In fact, it is a minor miracle that the Phillies led the N.L. in runs scored with Nunez playing in half of their games. To be a successful offense with that anchor on the team? They are doing something very right.
One interesting fact I discovered: Jason Weitzel of the excellent Beerleaguer argued that Nunez addition helped the Phillies lineup by putting someone with speed in and removing the slow-footed David Bell, who grounded into a lot of double plays. Nunez, in contrast, with his speed, avoided hitting into double plays and benefited the Phillies offense. Initially I thought that this argument had merit: Bell had ground into 11 double plays in 324 At-Bats in 2006 with the Phillies, while Nunez hit into 7. Then I discovered this stunning gem of a stat: in 2006, of the balls put into play by David Bell, 44% were grounders. Of the balls that Nunez put into play, 62% were ground balls.
I firmly believe that Nunez was extraordinarily lucky that he did not ground into more double plays in 2007. In reality, he ought to be absurdly prone to hitting into the 6-4-3 double play. Maybe Nunez’s speed and base-running skills enabled him to avoid the 6-4-3 (Bill James did rate Nunez a good base-runner at +3, while Wes Helms was a -4), but I doubt it. Based on Helms batted ball stats I think the Phillies can rest easy: just 38% of Helms batted balls were grounders (the league average was 44%, by the way), and he hit line-drives 26% of the time.
I think the Phillies offense will operate much, much smoother in 2007 with the addition of Wes Helms to the Phillies lineup. I am looking forward to seeing the overall improvement that the team will show thanks to their third base upgrade.
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Both right-handed hitters, Helms and Nunez have a few similarities. Both were used as utility infielders in 2007 by their respective teams. Nunez played 74 games at third, pinch-hit 41 times and played second and short a half-dozen times each. Helms pinch-hit 52 times, played 89 games at first base and another 24 at third for the Florida Marlins.
Here is how Bell, Nunez and Helms fared playing third in 2007:
Field Pct. / Range Factor
Bell: .945 / 2.78
Nunez: .959 / 2.66
Helms: .938 / 2.86
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
Fielding Percentage: (Putouts + Assists) / (Putouts + Assists + Errors). How often the player successfully handled the ball.
Range Factor: (Putouts + Assists) * 9 / IP. Essentially measures how much a player is involved in defensive plays.
Gross Productive Average (GPA): (1.8 * .OBP + .SLG) / 4 = .GPA. Invented by The Hardball Times Aaron Gleeman, GPA measures a players production by weighing his ability to get on base and hit with power. This is my preferred all-around stat.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). If you use ESPN’s version be advised that it is pitifully is out-of-date, however. James adjusted RC after the 2004 season ended.
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
Take some of Helms numbers in context: after all, he played a fraction (94 & 1/3) of the innings that Bell (781 & 1/3) and Nunez (632) did. Still, it suggests that he’ll play alright at third. Nunez is an individual whose reputation rests squarely on his ability to field the ball. The Pirates and Cardinals, his two previous teams, did not sign him for his ability to hit the ball. He’s the ultimate utility infielder. I suspect that his performance at third in 2007 was rather poor, and that even here Helms will be either an upgrade or simply no worse.
Helms will be a massive upgrade over Nunez offensively. There really is no good way to dress up Nunez offensive output. It is horrible. Let’s start with the raw stats. Nunex hit .211 with two home runs and 32 RBI in 322 At-Bats. Look a little deeper into the numbers and the picture is actually worse: Nunez GPA was just .205 in 2006. .205!!!! His On-Base Percentage was .303 and his slugging percentage was a mind-bogglingly awful .273. Nunez Isolated Power at the plate was just .062 … He had just 14 extra-base hits in those 322 At-Bats. Nunez contribution to the Phillies offense was pretty much nil. He had 27 Runs Created in 2006, and if you break that down by how many Outs he made, then you discover that he scored 1.98 per 27 outs. An entire team of Abraham Nunez’s would scored basically 2 runs a game, or 321 over the course of a season. The Phillies actually scored 865.
In fact, it is a minor miracle that the Phillies led the N.L. in runs scored with Nunez playing in half of their games. To be a successful offense with that anchor on the team? They are doing something very right.
One interesting fact I discovered: Jason Weitzel of the excellent Beerleaguer argued that Nunez addition helped the Phillies lineup by putting someone with speed in and removing the slow-footed David Bell, who grounded into a lot of double plays. Nunez, in contrast, with his speed, avoided hitting into double plays and benefited the Phillies offense. Initially I thought that this argument had merit: Bell had ground into 11 double plays in 324 At-Bats in 2006 with the Phillies, while Nunez hit into 7. Then I discovered this stunning gem of a stat: in 2006, of the balls put into play by David Bell, 44% were grounders. Of the balls that Nunez put into play, 62% were ground balls.
I firmly believe that Nunez was extraordinarily lucky that he did not ground into more double plays in 2007. In reality, he ought to be absurdly prone to hitting into the 6-4-3 double play. Maybe Nunez’s speed and base-running skills enabled him to avoid the 6-4-3 (Bill James did rate Nunez a good base-runner at +3, while Wes Helms was a -4), but I doubt it. Based on Helms batted ball stats I think the Phillies can rest easy: just 38% of Helms batted balls were grounders (the league average was 44%, by the way), and he hit line-drives 26% of the time.
I think the Phillies offense will operate much, much smoother in 2007 with the addition of Wes Helms to the Phillies lineup. I am looking forward to seeing the overall improvement that the team will show thanks to their third base upgrade.
Labels: Bell, Helms, Nunez, Third Base
