Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Farm Report: June of '08 (Part II, Clearwater & Lakewood)
So we're back on The Farm Report. Currently there are four Phillies minor league teams playing baseball although two others are about to get started. The Gulf Coast League (GCL) Phillies kick off their 2008 season on June 18 with a game against the GCL Blue Jays, while the Williamsport Crosscutters play Mahoning Valley on June 17th. We'll get to see a good number of the 52 players the Phillies took in the 2008 Draft that day. The GCL team is really going to be interesting to watch.
The Phillies begin a three-game series tonight in Florida. Brett Myers vs. some guy I've never heard of. Let's turn to the minors.
As I mentioned yesterday, the minor league system consists of a number of steps that players have to pass through in order to make their way to the major leagues. The Double-A Reading Phillies and Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs are the final two stops players have to pass through in order to make the big leagues in Philadelphia. The two teams we are going to talk about today, the Advanced Single-A Clearwater Threshers and Single-A Lakewood Blue Claws, are the teams that currently hold players taken in the '06 and '07 Drafts. These players are a few years away from being MLB-ready. Guys like Adrian Cardenas won't have a shot at making the move to Philadelphia until '10. Let's start with ...
Clearwater Threshers. Current record: 26-33. Standings: 6th of 6 teams in in the Florida State League's Western Division, thirteen and one-half games back of the Ft. Meyers Miracles. Players of note: Adrian Cardenas (2B/SS), Quintin Berry (OF), Joe Savery (P) and Kyle Drabek (P).
The crown jewels of the Phillies 2006 and 2007 Drafts - first-rounders Kyle Drabek and Joe Savery, as well as Supplemental first-rounder Adrian Cardenas - are currently sunning themselves in Clearwater, Florida, waiting to move up to Reading and join the Reading Phillies. Kyle Drabek is still recovering from an arm injury and will hopefully rejoin the team shortly. Before his injury last season he was 5-1 with a 4.33 ERA in Lakewood. After a so-so start with the GCL Phillies in '06, Drabek really seemed to have put things together in Lakewood (7.66 K/9). I'd like to see what he'll do in Clearwater. The jury is still out on him.
Adrian Cardenas, who was picked after Drabek in the sandwich round in '06, is off to a terrific start. It is stunning that a player so talented fell to the Phillies in the sandwich round that season. At the moment Cardenas has an OPS of .909, which would rank him second in the entire FSL behind Daniel Valencia of the Ft. Myers Miracles (.938). Cardenas is also fifth in the FSL in OBP at .397. While Cardenas' has just four home runs and twelve RBIs, remember that the FSL is a very pitching-oriented league. Two things that impress me about him: in addition to the power at the plate, Cardenas is quick (4 for 4 in steals this season, 20 of 27 last season; five triples in '06 and '07 combined) and he shows good bat control (17 walks to 21 K's this season). Add in Cardenas defensive abilities ... Cardenas' skills are limitless. He's easily the best position player the Phillies have in the minors and probably their second-best prospect after Carlos Carrasco.
Phillies fans are finally getting their first extended look at Joe Savery. The Phillies first pick in '07, he played sparringly in Williamsport last season, posting a 2-3 record with an impressive 2.73 ERA. The Phillies high command liked what they saw enough to jump Savery over Single-A Lakewood to Clearwater. So far he's off to a solid start, not that you could tell with his 2-7 record and 4.61 ERA, but his numbers are far more impressive. His strikeout rate is 7.54 per nine innings and he owns a 2-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Unlike Carrasco and Outman, two players the Phillies have elected to move along slowly, Savery appears to be MLB ready sooner rather than later. I could see the Phillies jumping Savery to Reading before the end of this season and giving him a chance at making the Phillies roster in '10.
Finally, Quintin Berry is really catching my eye in Clearwater. Currently he is second in the FSL in stolen bases at 19 (in 24 tries). If he could improve his ability to get on base (he currently has a .335 OBP), he'd be deadly. Let's move to the Jersey Shore and scope out the ...
Lakewood Blue Claws. Current record: 33-26. Standings: 3rd of 8 teams in in the South Atlantic League's Northern Division, two games behind of the Lake County Captains. Players of note: Dominic Brown (OF), D'Arby Myers (OF), Freddy Galvis (SS), Karl Bolt (1B), Travis Mattair (3B), and Drew Naylor (P).
Here is something that I just realized. The Blue Claws are the only Phillies affiliate right now with the winning record and not in last place. That's pretty sad.
Now, this is just a personal opinion, but I think the Phillies 2007 Draft was pretty good and yielded a lot of talent. While the '06 Draft yielded a clear superstar in Cardenas (the jury is still out on Drabek), I think the '07 Draft will yield a greater dividend of talent in terms of depth as opposed to quality. I can't see Naylor, Savery or Mattair making the kind of contribution that Cardenas will, but each will contribute to the Phillies roster as role players or fourth and fifth starters. In the end that depth will be as important as Cardenas will be. (Can you tell I think this guy is pretty good?)
Let's start with Dominic Brown. Brown is a player who really impresses me. Last season in Williamsport he stole 14 bases in 21 tries and posted an impressive .356 OBP while hitting 5 triples. This season he's surprised me by hitting five home runs (curiously, no triples, but 12 doubles) with an OBP of .362 and 11 steals in 12 tries. Brown is fast and shows good instinicts. I like the fact that in his last ten games he's walked 7 times and struckout just once. Discipline at the plate and speed. Brown could make a very effective leadoff hitter one day.
Airforce grad Karl Bolt and Travis Mattair man each end of the Phillies corner infield. Bolt, a first baseman, got off to an impressive start in the GCL with 8 home runs, 4 triples and 10 doubles and 31 RBI in just 57 games, an impressive feat given how pitcher-friendly the league is. He's off to a less-powerful start in Lakewood, with three home runs and seven doubles. So far Bolt is striking out way too much: 31 times in 37 games. Add in that he draws just 7 walks and you've got a recipe for disaster. Mattair, who played with Bolt in the GCL last season, is also struggling in Lakewood. His On-Base Percentage is an abysmal .322 and he has just one home run and 21 RBI in 52 games. Like Bolt, Mattair has wiffed a lot: 51 times in 52 games.
D'Arby Myers, who played in Williamsport in '07 and in the GCL in '06, is really struggling right now. His batting average is a beyond awful .189 and he's struckout 45 times in 50 games. Myers has speed to burn: 7 of 8 steals this season, 11 of 17 last season, but he's going to get few chances to showcase it unless he improves the OBP of .243 he has this season and the .286 he had last.
So who is the best position player in Lakewood? Say hello to Mr. Freddy Galvis. Ignore Galvis' .288 OBP in Lakewood and his .255 OBP in Williamsport. Galvis is a defensive superstar and has a lot of speed to burn: 9 steals in 10 tries in '08, 9 steals in 13 tries in '07. Galvis's defensive abilities are so impressive that when the team talked about what to do when Jimmy Rollins went down, Galvis' name was floated around by some members of the organization. A player this talented and this raw is still figuring things out at the plate. He'll improve and become a steady MLBer.
Finally we come to Drew Naylor. The Brisbane, Australia, native was the Phillies best hurler in Williamsport: 8-6, 3.28 ERA, 9.35 K/9, 2.70 BB/9, 3.46 K/BB ratio, 1.14 WHIP. Those are exceptional numbers and it will be interesting to see if Naylor can sustain those numbers in the long haul. So far this season he's burning up the South Atlantic League: 5-2, 2.61 ERA, 9.91 K/9, 2.18 BB/9, 4.55 K/BB ratio, 0.97 WHIP. Wow. If Naylor can keep that up, he's going to become a dominant MLB pitcher.
So in the end, I think that the current group of players at Lakewood will produce several talents who could play important supporting roles on the Phillies. Brown and Naylor are near-locks to make it to the majors, while Galvis ought to, and between Mattair, Bolt and Myers, one of the three ought to make it to the majors. That should be four major leaguers right there. While these guys might not contribute as dramatically as I expect Cardenas to do (I expect Cardenas to be a consistent, 25-30 home run, 100 RBI, 40-50 double type of player), they will perform important roles with the Phillies in the future.
So that's the Farm Report as I see it this first week of June, 2008. Enjoy your day. Tomorrow, I think I'll talk a little about Shane Victorino.
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The Phillies begin a three-game series tonight in Florida. Brett Myers vs. some guy I've never heard of. Let's turn to the minors.
As I mentioned yesterday, the minor league system consists of a number of steps that players have to pass through in order to make their way to the major leagues. The Double-A Reading Phillies and Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs are the final two stops players have to pass through in order to make the big leagues in Philadelphia. The two teams we are going to talk about today, the Advanced Single-A Clearwater Threshers and Single-A Lakewood Blue Claws, are the teams that currently hold players taken in the '06 and '07 Drafts. These players are a few years away from being MLB-ready. Guys like Adrian Cardenas won't have a shot at making the move to Philadelphia until '10. Let's start with ...
Clearwater Threshers. Current record: 26-33. Standings: 6th of 6 teams in in the Florida State League's Western Division, thirteen and one-half games back of the Ft. Meyers Miracles. Players of note: Adrian Cardenas (2B/SS), Quintin Berry (OF), Joe Savery (P) and Kyle Drabek (P).
The crown jewels of the Phillies 2006 and 2007 Drafts - first-rounders Kyle Drabek and Joe Savery, as well as Supplemental first-rounder Adrian Cardenas - are currently sunning themselves in Clearwater, Florida, waiting to move up to Reading and join the Reading Phillies. Kyle Drabek is still recovering from an arm injury and will hopefully rejoin the team shortly. Before his injury last season he was 5-1 with a 4.33 ERA in Lakewood. After a so-so start with the GCL Phillies in '06, Drabek really seemed to have put things together in Lakewood (7.66 K/9). I'd like to see what he'll do in Clearwater. The jury is still out on him.
Adrian Cardenas, who was picked after Drabek in the sandwich round in '06, is off to a terrific start. It is stunning that a player so talented fell to the Phillies in the sandwich round that season. At the moment Cardenas has an OPS of .909, which would rank him second in the entire FSL behind Daniel Valencia of the Ft. Myers Miracles (.938). Cardenas is also fifth in the FSL in OBP at .397. While Cardenas' has just four home runs and twelve RBIs, remember that the FSL is a very pitching-oriented league. Two things that impress me about him: in addition to the power at the plate, Cardenas is quick (4 for 4 in steals this season, 20 of 27 last season; five triples in '06 and '07 combined) and he shows good bat control (17 walks to 21 K's this season). Add in Cardenas defensive abilities ... Cardenas' skills are limitless. He's easily the best position player the Phillies have in the minors and probably their second-best prospect after Carlos Carrasco.
Phillies fans are finally getting their first extended look at Joe Savery. The Phillies first pick in '07, he played sparringly in Williamsport last season, posting a 2-3 record with an impressive 2.73 ERA. The Phillies high command liked what they saw enough to jump Savery over Single-A Lakewood to Clearwater. So far he's off to a solid start, not that you could tell with his 2-7 record and 4.61 ERA, but his numbers are far more impressive. His strikeout rate is 7.54 per nine innings and he owns a 2-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Unlike Carrasco and Outman, two players the Phillies have elected to move along slowly, Savery appears to be MLB ready sooner rather than later. I could see the Phillies jumping Savery to Reading before the end of this season and giving him a chance at making the Phillies roster in '10.
Finally, Quintin Berry is really catching my eye in Clearwater. Currently he is second in the FSL in stolen bases at 19 (in 24 tries). If he could improve his ability to get on base (he currently has a .335 OBP), he'd be deadly. Let's move to the Jersey Shore and scope out the ...
Lakewood Blue Claws. Current record: 33-26. Standings: 3rd of 8 teams in in the South Atlantic League's Northern Division, two games behind of the Lake County Captains. Players of note: Dominic Brown (OF), D'Arby Myers (OF), Freddy Galvis (SS), Karl Bolt (1B), Travis Mattair (3B), and Drew Naylor (P).
Here is something that I just realized. The Blue Claws are the only Phillies affiliate right now with the winning record and not in last place. That's pretty sad.
Now, this is just a personal opinion, but I think the Phillies 2007 Draft was pretty good and yielded a lot of talent. While the '06 Draft yielded a clear superstar in Cardenas (the jury is still out on Drabek), I think the '07 Draft will yield a greater dividend of talent in terms of depth as opposed to quality. I can't see Naylor, Savery or Mattair making the kind of contribution that Cardenas will, but each will contribute to the Phillies roster as role players or fourth and fifth starters. In the end that depth will be as important as Cardenas will be. (Can you tell I think this guy is pretty good?)
Let's start with Dominic Brown. Brown is a player who really impresses me. Last season in Williamsport he stole 14 bases in 21 tries and posted an impressive .356 OBP while hitting 5 triples. This season he's surprised me by hitting five home runs (curiously, no triples, but 12 doubles) with an OBP of .362 and 11 steals in 12 tries. Brown is fast and shows good instinicts. I like the fact that in his last ten games he's walked 7 times and struckout just once. Discipline at the plate and speed. Brown could make a very effective leadoff hitter one day.
Airforce grad Karl Bolt and Travis Mattair man each end of the Phillies corner infield. Bolt, a first baseman, got off to an impressive start in the GCL with 8 home runs, 4 triples and 10 doubles and 31 RBI in just 57 games, an impressive feat given how pitcher-friendly the league is. He's off to a less-powerful start in Lakewood, with three home runs and seven doubles. So far Bolt is striking out way too much: 31 times in 37 games. Add in that he draws just 7 walks and you've got a recipe for disaster. Mattair, who played with Bolt in the GCL last season, is also struggling in Lakewood. His On-Base Percentage is an abysmal .322 and he has just one home run and 21 RBI in 52 games. Like Bolt, Mattair has wiffed a lot: 51 times in 52 games.
D'Arby Myers, who played in Williamsport in '07 and in the GCL in '06, is really struggling right now. His batting average is a beyond awful .189 and he's struckout 45 times in 50 games. Myers has speed to burn: 7 of 8 steals this season, 11 of 17 last season, but he's going to get few chances to showcase it unless he improves the OBP of .243 he has this season and the .286 he had last.
So who is the best position player in Lakewood? Say hello to Mr. Freddy Galvis. Ignore Galvis' .288 OBP in Lakewood and his .255 OBP in Williamsport. Galvis is a defensive superstar and has a lot of speed to burn: 9 steals in 10 tries in '08, 9 steals in 13 tries in '07. Galvis's defensive abilities are so impressive that when the team talked about what to do when Jimmy Rollins went down, Galvis' name was floated around by some members of the organization. A player this talented and this raw is still figuring things out at the plate. He'll improve and become a steady MLBer.
Finally we come to Drew Naylor. The Brisbane, Australia, native was the Phillies best hurler in Williamsport: 8-6, 3.28 ERA, 9.35 K/9, 2.70 BB/9, 3.46 K/BB ratio, 1.14 WHIP. Those are exceptional numbers and it will be interesting to see if Naylor can sustain those numbers in the long haul. So far this season he's burning up the South Atlantic League: 5-2, 2.61 ERA, 9.91 K/9, 2.18 BB/9, 4.55 K/BB ratio, 0.97 WHIP. Wow. If Naylor can keep that up, he's going to become a dominant MLB pitcher.
So in the end, I think that the current group of players at Lakewood will produce several talents who could play important supporting roles on the Phillies. Brown and Naylor are near-locks to make it to the majors, while Galvis ought to, and between Mattair, Bolt and Myers, one of the three ought to make it to the majors. That should be four major leaguers right there. While these guys might not contribute as dramatically as I expect Cardenas to do (I expect Cardenas to be a consistent, 25-30 home run, 100 RBI, 40-50 double type of player), they will perform important roles with the Phillies in the future.
So that's the Farm Report as I see it this first week of June, 2008. Enjoy your day. Tomorrow, I think I'll talk a little about Shane Victorino.
Labels: Cardenas, Drabek, Minors, MLB Draft, Savery
Monday, June 09, 2008
Farm Report: June of '08 (Part I, Lehigh Valley & Reading)
Let's begin with a quick recap of this weekend's Braves - Phillies series. Friday night's game, which saw the Phillies snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, might just be the moment that Phillies fans look back upon and say that was the decisive game of the season. Kelly Johnson's error in the top end of the ninth allowed the Phillies to tie the game at 2-2, then Shane Victorino hit the decisive home run and threw out a Braves base-runner trying to tie the game up. The 4-3 win was the most exciting game of the season for the Phillies.
So as the smoke clears from the weekend, the Phillies find themselves sitting in first place, 3 & 1/2 games ahead of the Marlins at 39-26, their best record at this time of the year since '95 and probably their finest start since the '93 team went 40-25 to start the season. The Phillies also hold the second-best record in the N.L. after the Cubs and sit 6 & 1/2 games ahead of the Braves and 7 & 1/2 games ahead of the Mets.
Hey Mets fans, reind me again: wasn't some guy supposed to gaurantee you a division title? I forget.
The Farm Report Returns ... Inspired by the 2008 MLB Draft on Thursday and Friday, I decided that I'd revisit the Phillies minor leagues today and tomorrow with quick looks at how the Phillies minor league teams are doing and how some of our favorite players ("Phuture Phillies"?) are faring.
First, a word on how the minors work. Looking for the players the Phillies just drafted in Lakewood and Clearwater and Reading this summer? Don't. Draftees into the Phillies system will be sent to either Clearwater to play with the Gulf Coast League (GCL) Phillies or to Williamsport to play with the Short-Season Single-A Crosscutters in the New York - Penn League (NYPL). Typically high schoolers go to the GCL while college grads go to the NYPL. So expect to see Anthony Hewitt, Zach Collier, Anthony Grose and Jason Knapp in Clearwater while guys like Vance Worley head off to Williamsport. The minors are structured as follows:
Rookie League (e.g. GCL Phillies) - typical entry point for High School draftees.
Short-Season Single-A (e.g. the NYPL's Crosscutters) - typical entry point for College draftees.
Single-A (for the Phillies, the South Atlantic League's Lakewood Blue Claws) - usually the first full season in the minors for the players who survive the GCL or NYPL.
Advanced Single-A (for the Phillies, the Florida State League's Clearwater Threshers) - usually the second full season in the minors for the Phillies prospects.
Double-A (for the Phillies, the Eastern League's Reading Phillies) - usually the third full season in the minors for the Phillies prospects, although some players can advance here from Single-A or some are held back for development.
Triple-A (for the Phillies, the International League's Lehigh Valley IronPigs) - usually the fourth and final full year in the minors for the Phillies prospects, although oftentimes players spend extra time here developing or they advance here quickly.
Players like Hewitt and Collier and Grose and Knapp will probably start around July 1 with the GCL Phillies and play sixty or so games until the start of September. Some in need of further development might play winter ball somewhere. In 2009 Hewitt, et al., will graduate to the Jersey Shore and play with the Blue Claws in Lakewood. Given that these guys are all high schoolers, the Phillies will bring them along slowly, sending them to Clearwater in '10, followed by Reading in '11 or '12 and Lehigh Valley in '12 or '13. That's why people like ESPN's Keith Law forecast a looong development investment for guys like Hewitt. Opening Day, 2014, might be the first time we see Anthony Hewitt or any of the others wear the Red Pinstripes.
More advanced college players like Pedro Alvarez, the Vanderbilt third baseman who the Pittsburgh Pirates took with the #2 pick of the draft, in contrast will have a quicker path through the system: likely beginning at the State College Spikes in the NYPL, followed by the Single-A Hickory Crawdads in '09, skipping to the Double-A Altoona Curve in '10, then finishing in Triple-A Indianapolis in '11 and starting at third base for the Pirates in late '11 or early '12. That's the difference between the approaches teams that need MLB-ready talent now like the Pirates and the Phillies, who can afford to take time developing talent.
So let's start with the Phillies MLB-ready talent factory in Allentown with the Lehigh Valley IronPigs.
Lehigh Valley IronPigs. Current record: 21-41. Standings: 6th of 6 teams in in the International League's Northern Division, seventeen games back of the Scranton / Wilkes-Barre Yankees. Players of note: Jason Jamarillo (C), T.J. Bohn (OF), Travis Blackley (P), and J.A. Happ (P).
The IronPigs, the Phillies brand-spanking new Triple-A affiliate in the Lehigh Valley area, got off to a less than auspicious 6-30 start this season and have clawed their way back to ... well, not respectability. Let's try "mediocrity" ... with a 15-11 record since mid-May. The IronPigs are awful and it is pretty clear that there is little MLB-ready talent currently in Allentown. Jason Jamarillo, the IronPigs catcher, is making little argument for the job of Chris Coste, with his meager .667 OPS and three home runs and seventeen RBI this season. Jamarillo is the most highly touted catching prospect in the Phillies system, but he's really struggling at the plate while Coste, a player who scouts routinely passed on and paid little attention to, continues to play well in Philly. As long as Jamarillo struggles through this season, Coste and Carlos Ruiz are set in Philadelphia. T.J. Bohn played briefly with the Phillies at the end of May but recently rejoined the team. His .522 OPS is a testament to how little talent is actually located on the IronPigs roster.
Pitcher Travis Blackley, whom the Phillies took in the Rule 5 Draft last season from the San Francisco Giants farm system, didn't make the Phillies roster but found his way to Triple-A to develop. Blackley is 1-3 with a 5.65 ERA and has struckout 30 hitters (7.36 K/9) and walked 22 (5.4 BB/9) in thirty-six and two-thirds of an inning. Blackley has talent but needs to figure out how to control his stuff. If you can't keep hitters from walking in the International League, you won't be able to do that in the National League.
Far and away the Phillies best player on the IronPigs roster is J.A. Happ. Happ's pedestrian 3-5 record masks an impressive 3.86 ERA (impressively low and doubley impressive given how little help Happ gets) and some nice stats. Happ has 81 strikeouts in 77 innings of work (9.47 K/9) and he allowed 30 walks (2.70 K/BB ratio). If anyone from the Phillies rotation goes down or if Adam Eaton needs to be pulled in August and September, Happ is the guy to take his spot.
Reading Phillies. Current record: 22-34. Standings: 6th of 6 teams in in the Eastern League's Southern Division, eleven games back of Harrisburg. Players of note: Jason Donald (SS), Greg Golson (OF), Jeremy Slayden (OF), Andrew Carpenter (P), Carlos Carrasco (P), and Josh Outman (P).
There is a lot of talent on the Reading Phillies roster and I think that the '09 Lehigh Valley IronPigs are going to be a pretty decent team. I'm pretty bullish on the arms that the Phillies have coming up through their system and Reading is where the talent is at. Carpenter is just 2-7 with a 6.94 ERA but he is pitching better than that. It is also worth remembering that Carpenter pitched very well in Clearwater in '07: 17-6, 3.20 ERA, 6.40 K/9, 2.93 BB/9.
After Carpenter, the Phillies have two other terrific talents: Carrasco and Outman. Let's start with Carrasco, who has been rated as the best prospect in the Phillies system. Currently Carrasco has been blowing away the opposition in Reading. His 4-4 record and 3.91 ERA masks some scary numbers: 72 strikeouts in 73 & 2/3 innings, or 8.80 K/9. He also possesses a 2.57 K/BB ratio. Carrasco has an exceptional arm and is clearly destined to take the place of Jamie Moyer or Adam Eaton in Philadelphia in 2009. He might actually be major-league ready right now.
Outman is a curious case of someone who posts numbers equally good, if not better than Carrasco, and yet doesn't earn the same respect. Outman's issue right now is control: he has a 2-6 record and a 3.61 ERA but he's getting a lot of strikeouts and a lot of walks. How many players strikeout over ten batters per nine innings of work? Outman does: 10.3 K/9 (53 Ks in 46 & 1/3 innings). How many can find success despite allowing over five walks an inning? Outman does: 5.05 BB/9 (26 walks). Once Outman gains control he'll return to being the pitcher who matched Carrasco stride-for-stride in '06 and '07. I predict seeing Outman in Philadelphia in '10.
The Reading Phillies position players are an interesting bunch. First there is Greg Golson, the talented former high schooler from Texas that the Phillies are trying to make into a major leaguer and might yet succeed, but for Golson's inability to avoid striking out again and again and again. Golson is a strikeout artist and has K'd a whopping 73 times so far this year. Sadly, the strikeouts detract from the fact that Golson is fast (16 steals in 19 tries) and has power (13 doubles and 7 home runs in just 57 games).
Then these is Jeremy Slayden, the slow-footed slugging rightfielder from Georgia Tech who tore up the Florida State League last season. This season Slayden has struggled a little with good competition, but he's generally played well. His 5 home runs and 40 RBI aren't that impressive, but when coupled with his .355 OBP, they make a strong argument for Slayden to advance to the IronPigs in '09.
Finally, Jason Donald. The talented shortstop from the University of Arizona is the big surprise of the Phillies system. More of a defensively oriented player, Donald has an impressive .399 OBP and has displayed a lot of speed (7 for 9 in steals, 3 triples) and power (4 home runs, 10 doubles, and a .444 slugging percentage). He's a terrific player and could be backing up Jimmy Rollins next year.
Tomorrow: Clearwater and Lakewood. Today is an off-day for the Phillies.
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So as the smoke clears from the weekend, the Phillies find themselves sitting in first place, 3 & 1/2 games ahead of the Marlins at 39-26, their best record at this time of the year since '95 and probably their finest start since the '93 team went 40-25 to start the season. The Phillies also hold the second-best record in the N.L. after the Cubs and sit 6 & 1/2 games ahead of the Braves and 7 & 1/2 games ahead of the Mets.
Hey Mets fans, reind me again: wasn't some guy supposed to gaurantee you a division title? I forget.
The Farm Report Returns ... Inspired by the 2008 MLB Draft on Thursday and Friday, I decided that I'd revisit the Phillies minor leagues today and tomorrow with quick looks at how the Phillies minor league teams are doing and how some of our favorite players ("Phuture Phillies"?) are faring.
First, a word on how the minors work. Looking for the players the Phillies just drafted in Lakewood and Clearwater and Reading this summer? Don't. Draftees into the Phillies system will be sent to either Clearwater to play with the Gulf Coast League (GCL) Phillies or to Williamsport to play with the Short-Season Single-A Crosscutters in the New York - Penn League (NYPL). Typically high schoolers go to the GCL while college grads go to the NYPL. So expect to see Anthony Hewitt, Zach Collier, Anthony Grose and Jason Knapp in Clearwater while guys like Vance Worley head off to Williamsport. The minors are structured as follows:
Rookie League (e.g. GCL Phillies) - typical entry point for High School draftees.
Short-Season Single-A (e.g. the NYPL's Crosscutters) - typical entry point for College draftees.
Single-A (for the Phillies, the South Atlantic League's Lakewood Blue Claws) - usually the first full season in the minors for the players who survive the GCL or NYPL.
Advanced Single-A (for the Phillies, the Florida State League's Clearwater Threshers) - usually the second full season in the minors for the Phillies prospects.
Double-A (for the Phillies, the Eastern League's Reading Phillies) - usually the third full season in the minors for the Phillies prospects, although some players can advance here from Single-A or some are held back for development.
Triple-A (for the Phillies, the International League's Lehigh Valley IronPigs) - usually the fourth and final full year in the minors for the Phillies prospects, although oftentimes players spend extra time here developing or they advance here quickly.
Players like Hewitt and Collier and Grose and Knapp will probably start around July 1 with the GCL Phillies and play sixty or so games until the start of September. Some in need of further development might play winter ball somewhere. In 2009 Hewitt, et al., will graduate to the Jersey Shore and play with the Blue Claws in Lakewood. Given that these guys are all high schoolers, the Phillies will bring them along slowly, sending them to Clearwater in '10, followed by Reading in '11 or '12 and Lehigh Valley in '12 or '13. That's why people like ESPN's Keith Law forecast a looong development investment for guys like Hewitt. Opening Day, 2014, might be the first time we see Anthony Hewitt or any of the others wear the Red Pinstripes.
More advanced college players like Pedro Alvarez, the Vanderbilt third baseman who the Pittsburgh Pirates took with the #2 pick of the draft, in contrast will have a quicker path through the system: likely beginning at the State College Spikes in the NYPL, followed by the Single-A Hickory Crawdads in '09, skipping to the Double-A Altoona Curve in '10, then finishing in Triple-A Indianapolis in '11 and starting at third base for the Pirates in late '11 or early '12. That's the difference between the approaches teams that need MLB-ready talent now like the Pirates and the Phillies, who can afford to take time developing talent.
So let's start with the Phillies MLB-ready talent factory in Allentown with the Lehigh Valley IronPigs.
Lehigh Valley IronPigs. Current record: 21-41. Standings: 6th of 6 teams in in the International League's Northern Division, seventeen games back of the Scranton / Wilkes-Barre Yankees. Players of note: Jason Jamarillo (C), T.J. Bohn (OF), Travis Blackley (P), and J.A. Happ (P).
The IronPigs, the Phillies brand-spanking new Triple-A affiliate in the Lehigh Valley area, got off to a less than auspicious 6-30 start this season and have clawed their way back to ... well, not respectability. Let's try "mediocrity" ... with a 15-11 record since mid-May. The IronPigs are awful and it is pretty clear that there is little MLB-ready talent currently in Allentown. Jason Jamarillo, the IronPigs catcher, is making little argument for the job of Chris Coste, with his meager .667 OPS and three home runs and seventeen RBI this season. Jamarillo is the most highly touted catching prospect in the Phillies system, but he's really struggling at the plate while Coste, a player who scouts routinely passed on and paid little attention to, continues to play well in Philly. As long as Jamarillo struggles through this season, Coste and Carlos Ruiz are set in Philadelphia. T.J. Bohn played briefly with the Phillies at the end of May but recently rejoined the team. His .522 OPS is a testament to how little talent is actually located on the IronPigs roster.
Pitcher Travis Blackley, whom the Phillies took in the Rule 5 Draft last season from the San Francisco Giants farm system, didn't make the Phillies roster but found his way to Triple-A to develop. Blackley is 1-3 with a 5.65 ERA and has struckout 30 hitters (7.36 K/9) and walked 22 (5.4 BB/9) in thirty-six and two-thirds of an inning. Blackley has talent but needs to figure out how to control his stuff. If you can't keep hitters from walking in the International League, you won't be able to do that in the National League.
Far and away the Phillies best player on the IronPigs roster is J.A. Happ. Happ's pedestrian 3-5 record masks an impressive 3.86 ERA (impressively low and doubley impressive given how little help Happ gets) and some nice stats. Happ has 81 strikeouts in 77 innings of work (9.47 K/9) and he allowed 30 walks (2.70 K/BB ratio). If anyone from the Phillies rotation goes down or if Adam Eaton needs to be pulled in August and September, Happ is the guy to take his spot.
Reading Phillies. Current record: 22-34. Standings: 6th of 6 teams in in the Eastern League's Southern Division, eleven games back of Harrisburg. Players of note: Jason Donald (SS), Greg Golson (OF), Jeremy Slayden (OF), Andrew Carpenter (P), Carlos Carrasco (P), and Josh Outman (P).
There is a lot of talent on the Reading Phillies roster and I think that the '09 Lehigh Valley IronPigs are going to be a pretty decent team. I'm pretty bullish on the arms that the Phillies have coming up through their system and Reading is where the talent is at. Carpenter is just 2-7 with a 6.94 ERA but he is pitching better than that. It is also worth remembering that Carpenter pitched very well in Clearwater in '07: 17-6, 3.20 ERA, 6.40 K/9, 2.93 BB/9.
After Carpenter, the Phillies have two other terrific talents: Carrasco and Outman. Let's start with Carrasco, who has been rated as the best prospect in the Phillies system. Currently Carrasco has been blowing away the opposition in Reading. His 4-4 record and 3.91 ERA masks some scary numbers: 72 strikeouts in 73 & 2/3 innings, or 8.80 K/9. He also possesses a 2.57 K/BB ratio. Carrasco has an exceptional arm and is clearly destined to take the place of Jamie Moyer or Adam Eaton in Philadelphia in 2009. He might actually be major-league ready right now.
Outman is a curious case of someone who posts numbers equally good, if not better than Carrasco, and yet doesn't earn the same respect. Outman's issue right now is control: he has a 2-6 record and a 3.61 ERA but he's getting a lot of strikeouts and a lot of walks. How many players strikeout over ten batters per nine innings of work? Outman does: 10.3 K/9 (53 Ks in 46 & 1/3 innings). How many can find success despite allowing over five walks an inning? Outman does: 5.05 BB/9 (26 walks). Once Outman gains control he'll return to being the pitcher who matched Carrasco stride-for-stride in '06 and '07. I predict seeing Outman in Philadelphia in '10.
The Reading Phillies position players are an interesting bunch. First there is Greg Golson, the talented former high schooler from Texas that the Phillies are trying to make into a major leaguer and might yet succeed, but for Golson's inability to avoid striking out again and again and again. Golson is a strikeout artist and has K'd a whopping 73 times so far this year. Sadly, the strikeouts detract from the fact that Golson is fast (16 steals in 19 tries) and has power (13 doubles and 7 home runs in just 57 games).
Then these is Jeremy Slayden, the slow-footed slugging rightfielder from Georgia Tech who tore up the Florida State League last season. This season Slayden has struggled a little with good competition, but he's generally played well. His 5 home runs and 40 RBI aren't that impressive, but when coupled with his .355 OBP, they make a strong argument for Slayden to advance to the IronPigs in '09.
Finally, Jason Donald. The talented shortstop from the University of Arizona is the big surprise of the Phillies system. More of a defensively oriented player, Donald has an impressive .399 OBP and has displayed a lot of speed (7 for 9 in steals, 3 triples) and power (4 home runs, 10 doubles, and a .444 slugging percentage). He's a terrific player and could be backing up Jimmy Rollins next year.
Tomorrow: Clearwater and Lakewood. Today is an off-day for the Phillies.
Labels: Minors
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
The Bourn Trade
This is a late post, but a late post is better than a never post ... Last night's 6-4 loss to the Diamondbacks evens the series at 1-1 and saw Randy "Big Unit" Johnson post his 286th career victory, good enough to tie former Phillies great Robin Roberts at 27th all-time. Good work, Randy Johnson. It is unfortunate that Adam Eaton notched his first loss of the season after beginning the year quite well.
Tonight: Micah Owings (4-1, 4.41 ERA) vs. Kyle Kendrick (2-2, 5.01 ERA). Good luck, Kyle.
Prediction: Diamondbacks 8, Phillies 2. Kendrick is done is three innings or less.
Today's topic will be a brief evaluation of the Michael Bourn - Brad Lidge trade between the Phillies and Astros from this off-season and how the trade looks from one month plus into the 2008 season. A little recap: back on November 7 of last year the Phillies and Astros struck up a deal wherein the Phillies shipped Michael Bourn, their fourth outfielder in 2007, to the Astros along with prospect Mike Costanzo and middle reliever Geoff Geary in exchange for Closer Brad Lidge and Infielder Eric Bruntlett. The Phillies, jammed with Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino and Pat Burrell in the outfield, had no room for the speedy Bourn, who had wowed Phillies fans with 18 steals in 19 attempts in 2007. What they needed as a closer to get Brett Myers back into the rotation, thus improving the Phillies pitching staff in a two-for-the-price-one deal.
Reaction was generally mixed. Click here for a piece by Baseball Prospectus' Nate Silver blasting the Phillies for making the deal.
Well, I thought I might take a few moments to discuss how the deal is shaping up at the moment.
What the Astros Got:
Michael Bourn: currently the Astros starting centerfielder. So far this season he's wowed observers with 13 steals in 13 attempts. That means he's stolen 31 bases in 32 attempts the last two seasons combined. At his current pace of base-stealing, Bourn will steal 70-75 bases this season, a pretty nice total. Additionally, Bourn is one of the best defensive centerfielders in the National League. According to Relative Zone Rating (RZR), Bourn is the third-best in the N.L. with an RZR of .965. Bourn is also leading the N.L. in assists with three.
Before you get too impressed by Bourn's stats, let me just print a number that tells you all that you need to know about Bourn's abilities as a lead-off hitter:
.275
That's not Bourn's Batting Average. That's Bourn's On-Base Percentage. .275 ... At the moment Bourn is hitting .194, an absurdly low total with brings down his respectable .100 walks per plate appearance. I think Bourn's problem is that he strikes out waaaay too much: 28 times in 120 plate appearances. This might be a fluke: Bourn's Batting Average on Balls Put Into Play (BA/BIP) is just .234, nearly one hundred points lower than what he did last season with the Phillies: .330. He's going to have to hit better to be a more viable threat to steal bases and score runs. Despite those 13 steals, Bourn's scored just 14 runs, a pretty small total in my opinion. It is too soon to liken Bourn to Vince Coleman, the speedy outfielder who was the 1985 Rookie of the Year with the St. Louis Cardinals when he stole 110 bases but posted an anemic .320 OBP. Coleman was a fast player (he led the National League in stolen bases six consecutive seasons from 1985 to 1990), but he was hampered by his inability to get on base. His career OBP was just .324. Bourn is shaping up to be a speed demon who doesn't get on base enough.
Geoff Geary: Geary is having a solid season with the Astros, having tossed 14 innings with a 0-1 record and an ERA of 1.93. Geary's numbers are interesting because he's struck 15 batters out and walked eight, both are high numbers. Can a relief pitcher continue to keep giving batters free passes and then blow fastballs past them? I am skeptical, but at the moment Geary is the biggest part of the Lidge deal to actually be contributing to the Astros.
Mike Costanzo: this part of the deal is a little tough to evaluate because Costanzo was shipped back east to Baltimore as part of the Miguel Tejada deal. We'll start with Costanzo, who is currently playing with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides in the International League, and has struggled a little this season, with three home runs and nine RBI. His OPS is just .696. This is a big drop-off from the 27 home runs and 86 RBI he had in Double-A Reading last season. Costanzo's future potential is considerable, however, so don't be surprised to see him produce for the Orioles in 2008 and beyond.
Tejada, if you want to include him in the deal, has hit five home runs and 25 RBI and is powering the Astros offense. Costanzo's addition, which helped to bring Tejada's, might be the biggest part of the deal for the Astros, though Geary's impact clearly seems to be the most significant.
What the Phillies Got:
Brad Lidge: has been quite good as the Phillies closer since he returned from his pre-season knee injury. Lidge is currently 1-0 with an ERA of 0.00 and seven saves in seven tries. Naturally, Lidge's performance isn't sustainable, but he's gotten quite a few strikeouts (13 in 15 innings of work, or 7.8 K/9) although his walk rate (6 walks, or 3.6 BB/9) is very high as well. Lidge should save 35-40 games for the Phillies and give the team the reliable closer it needs to make a push on the N.L. East.
Eric Bruntlett: since Jimmy Rollins went down, Bruntlett has filled in as the Phillies starting shortstop and has done a decent job. Sort of a throw-in piece to the deal to give it some balance, Bruntlett has been pressed into service as the Phillies starting shortstop with 2007 N.L. MVP Jimmy Rollins on the D.L. Bruntlett's performance initially was bad (four errors in the field, an On Base Percentage of just .296), but he's improved of late. In games 1 & 2 of this series with the D-Backs, Bruntlett has two runs score, six RBI and a double, a triple and a home run on four-for-ten hitting.
Analysis: Time will tell how Bourn, et al. for Lidge, et al. impact the Phillies and Astros. Will Lidge be in a Phillies uniform in 2009? Will Bourn turn around, post a .300+ batting average and get on base enough to steal 100 or more bases? Will Geary struggle? Will Bruntlett turn into an effective middle-infielder? Will Costanzo get to Camden Yards, go on a tear and ultimately make the Orioles the real winners of this deal? Time shall tell.
Tonight: Micah Owings (4-1, 4.41 ERA) vs. Kyle Kendrick (2-2, 5.01 ERA). Good luck, Kyle.
Prediction: Diamondbacks 8, Phillies 2. Kendrick is done is three innings or less.
Today's topic will be a brief evaluation of the Michael Bourn - Brad Lidge trade between the Phillies and Astros from this off-season and how the trade looks from one month plus into the 2008 season. A little recap: back on November 7 of last year the Phillies and Astros struck up a deal wherein the Phillies shipped Michael Bourn, their fourth outfielder in 2007, to the Astros along with prospect Mike Costanzo and middle reliever Geoff Geary in exchange for Closer Brad Lidge and Infielder Eric Bruntlett. The Phillies, jammed with Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino and Pat Burrell in the outfield, had no room for the speedy Bourn, who had wowed Phillies fans with 18 steals in 19 attempts in 2007. What they needed as a closer to get Brett Myers back into the rotation, thus improving the Phillies pitching staff in a two-for-the-price-one deal.
Reaction was generally mixed. Click here for a piece by Baseball Prospectus' Nate Silver blasting the Phillies for making the deal.
Well, I thought I might take a few moments to discuss how the deal is shaping up at the moment.
What the Astros Got:
Michael Bourn: currently the Astros starting centerfielder. So far this season he's wowed observers with 13 steals in 13 attempts. That means he's stolen 31 bases in 32 attempts the last two seasons combined. At his current pace of base-stealing, Bourn will steal 70-75 bases this season, a pretty nice total. Additionally, Bourn is one of the best defensive centerfielders in the National League. According to Relative Zone Rating (RZR), Bourn is the third-best in the N.L. with an RZR of .965. Bourn is also leading the N.L. in assists with three.
Before you get too impressed by Bourn's stats, let me just print a number that tells you all that you need to know about Bourn's abilities as a lead-off hitter:
.275
That's not Bourn's Batting Average. That's Bourn's On-Base Percentage. .275 ... At the moment Bourn is hitting .194, an absurdly low total with brings down his respectable .100 walks per plate appearance. I think Bourn's problem is that he strikes out waaaay too much: 28 times in 120 plate appearances. This might be a fluke: Bourn's Batting Average on Balls Put Into Play (BA/BIP) is just .234, nearly one hundred points lower than what he did last season with the Phillies: .330. He's going to have to hit better to be a more viable threat to steal bases and score runs. Despite those 13 steals, Bourn's scored just 14 runs, a pretty small total in my opinion. It is too soon to liken Bourn to Vince Coleman, the speedy outfielder who was the 1985 Rookie of the Year with the St. Louis Cardinals when he stole 110 bases but posted an anemic .320 OBP. Coleman was a fast player (he led the National League in stolen bases six consecutive seasons from 1985 to 1990), but he was hampered by his inability to get on base. His career OBP was just .324. Bourn is shaping up to be a speed demon who doesn't get on base enough.
Geoff Geary: Geary is having a solid season with the Astros, having tossed 14 innings with a 0-1 record and an ERA of 1.93. Geary's numbers are interesting because he's struck 15 batters out and walked eight, both are high numbers. Can a relief pitcher continue to keep giving batters free passes and then blow fastballs past them? I am skeptical, but at the moment Geary is the biggest part of the Lidge deal to actually be contributing to the Astros.
Mike Costanzo: this part of the deal is a little tough to evaluate because Costanzo was shipped back east to Baltimore as part of the Miguel Tejada deal. We'll start with Costanzo, who is currently playing with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides in the International League, and has struggled a little this season, with three home runs and nine RBI. His OPS is just .696. This is a big drop-off from the 27 home runs and 86 RBI he had in Double-A Reading last season. Costanzo's future potential is considerable, however, so don't be surprised to see him produce for the Orioles in 2008 and beyond.
Tejada, if you want to include him in the deal, has hit five home runs and 25 RBI and is powering the Astros offense. Costanzo's addition, which helped to bring Tejada's, might be the biggest part of the deal for the Astros, though Geary's impact clearly seems to be the most significant.
What the Phillies Got:
Brad Lidge: has been quite good as the Phillies closer since he returned from his pre-season knee injury. Lidge is currently 1-0 with an ERA of 0.00 and seven saves in seven tries. Naturally, Lidge's performance isn't sustainable, but he's gotten quite a few strikeouts (13 in 15 innings of work, or 7.8 K/9) although his walk rate (6 walks, or 3.6 BB/9) is very high as well. Lidge should save 35-40 games for the Phillies and give the team the reliable closer it needs to make a push on the N.L. East.
Eric Bruntlett: since Jimmy Rollins went down, Bruntlett has filled in as the Phillies starting shortstop and has done a decent job. Sort of a throw-in piece to the deal to give it some balance, Bruntlett has been pressed into service as the Phillies starting shortstop with 2007 N.L. MVP Jimmy Rollins on the D.L. Bruntlett's performance initially was bad (four errors in the field, an On Base Percentage of just .296), but he's improved of late. In games 1 & 2 of this series with the D-Backs, Bruntlett has two runs score, six RBI and a double, a triple and a home run on four-for-ten hitting.
Analysis: Time will tell how Bourn, et al. for Lidge, et al. impact the Phillies and Astros. Will Lidge be in a Phillies uniform in 2009? Will Bourn turn around, post a .300+ batting average and get on base enough to steal 100 or more bases? Will Geary struggle? Will Bruntlett turn into an effective middle-infielder? Will Costanzo get to Camden Yards, go on a tear and ultimately make the Orioles the real winners of this deal? Time shall tell.
Labels: Bourn, Bruntlett, Bullpen, Geary, Lidge, Minors, Pitching, Speed, State of the Phillies
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
The Diamondbacks Series & Jeremy Slayden
From my perspective here is the remarkable thing about last night's 11-4 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks in the desert of the American Southwest: the Phillies didn't hit a single home run.
For those too bleary-eyed to stay up last night (or are too fixated on the Flyers impending series against the Pittsburgh Penguins) the Phillies defeated the Diamondbacks, the best team in the majors right now, 11-4 thanks to 17 hits and a nice outing from Jamie Moyer (seven innings pitched, two runs allowed, five strikeouts and zero walks). The victory kept the Phillies in first place and gave them a win to lead off their seven game road stand. As of this morning the Phillies own the N.L. East by a game:
N.L. East
1. Phillies: 19-14
2. Florida: 17-14 (1.0 Games Back)
3. Mets: 16-14 (1.5 Games Back)
4. Braves: 15-15 (2.5 Games Back)
5. Nationals: 14-18 (4.5 Games Back)
As I noted, the Phillies clocked 17 hits and not one was a home run. You know it is a good night at the plate when your pitcher (Moyer) goes 2-for-3 with a double and an RBI. Even more remarkable: Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell combined to go 1-for-9. Yes, it was a good night in the desert.
Tonight it is Adam Eaton vs. Randy Johnson. Read my post from yesterday to gain a better sense of the quasi-remarkable season that Eaton is having. Eaton will be hard-pressed to notch his first win of the season though against the Big Unit, who is pitching a lot better than his stats suggest: 1-1, 4.79 ERA. Johnson's DIPS ERA is 3.84, which is nearly a run better. The simple problem is that the D-Backs aren't playing good enough defense behind him. They've converted just 68.3% of the balls Johnson has allowed to be put into play into outs. Johnson is, as always, a formidable strikeout pitcher: 22 strikeouts in 20 and two-thirds of an inning of work. This is a mismatch that heavily favors the D-Backs.
Nice post on yesterday's game from the Inquirer's Todd Zolecki.
Quick look at a minor-leaguer of note: Jeremy Slayden. An eighth round pick in the 2005 Draft out of Georgia Tech, Slayden hasn't caught the attention of publications like Baseball America or has really registered in the minds of most fans. That's a shame because Slayden is a real talent:
w/ Double-A Reading ('08): OPS: .903 / HR: 3 / RBI: 20 / Doubles: 7 / OBP: .386 / ISO: .197
w/ Single-A Clearwater ('07): OPS: .834 / HR: 14 / RBI: 73 / Doubles: 24 / OBP: .376 / ISO: .171
w/ Single-A Lakewood ('06): OPS: .891 / HR: 10 / RBI: 81 / Doubles: 44 / OBP: .381 / ISO: .200
Even in the pitching-friendly Florida State League (FSL), Slayden mashed the heck out of the ball. He's one of those players who doesn't get a lot of ink because he wasn't highly drafted, he isn't flashy and pro scouts likely have a low opinion of his abilities. "Slow-footed slugger" is probably the most commonly written description of Slayden in the notebooks of scouts.
Slayden's rise through the Phillies system is a testament to the idea that a player's performance trumps the assumptions made. Perhaps Jeremy Slayden is a slow-footed slugger, but he wields a powerful bat. You'll see him in Philadelphia later this year, or early next.
For those too bleary-eyed to stay up last night (or are too fixated on the Flyers impending series against the Pittsburgh Penguins) the Phillies defeated the Diamondbacks, the best team in the majors right now, 11-4 thanks to 17 hits and a nice outing from Jamie Moyer (seven innings pitched, two runs allowed, five strikeouts and zero walks). The victory kept the Phillies in first place and gave them a win to lead off their seven game road stand. As of this morning the Phillies own the N.L. East by a game:
N.L. East
1. Phillies: 19-14
2. Florida: 17-14 (1.0 Games Back)
3. Mets: 16-14 (1.5 Games Back)
4. Braves: 15-15 (2.5 Games Back)
5. Nationals: 14-18 (4.5 Games Back)
As I noted, the Phillies clocked 17 hits and not one was a home run. You know it is a good night at the plate when your pitcher (Moyer) goes 2-for-3 with a double and an RBI. Even more remarkable: Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell combined to go 1-for-9. Yes, it was a good night in the desert.
Tonight it is Adam Eaton vs. Randy Johnson. Read my post from yesterday to gain a better sense of the quasi-remarkable season that Eaton is having. Eaton will be hard-pressed to notch his first win of the season though against the Big Unit, who is pitching a lot better than his stats suggest: 1-1, 4.79 ERA. Johnson's DIPS ERA is 3.84, which is nearly a run better. The simple problem is that the D-Backs aren't playing good enough defense behind him. They've converted just 68.3% of the balls Johnson has allowed to be put into play into outs. Johnson is, as always, a formidable strikeout pitcher: 22 strikeouts in 20 and two-thirds of an inning of work. This is a mismatch that heavily favors the D-Backs.
Nice post on yesterday's game from the Inquirer's Todd Zolecki.
Quick look at a minor-leaguer of note: Jeremy Slayden. An eighth round pick in the 2005 Draft out of Georgia Tech, Slayden hasn't caught the attention of publications like Baseball America or has really registered in the minds of most fans. That's a shame because Slayden is a real talent:
w/ Double-A Reading ('08): OPS: .903 / HR: 3 / RBI: 20 / Doubles: 7 / OBP: .386 / ISO: .197
w/ Single-A Clearwater ('07): OPS: .834 / HR: 14 / RBI: 73 / Doubles: 24 / OBP: .376 / ISO: .171
w/ Single-A Lakewood ('06): OPS: .891 / HR: 10 / RBI: 81 / Doubles: 44 / OBP: .381 / ISO: .200
Even in the pitching-friendly Florida State League (FSL), Slayden mashed the heck out of the ball. He's one of those players who doesn't get a lot of ink because he wasn't highly drafted, he isn't flashy and pro scouts likely have a low opinion of his abilities. "Slow-footed slugger" is probably the most commonly written description of Slayden in the notebooks of scouts.
Slayden's rise through the Phillies system is a testament to the idea that a player's performance trumps the assumptions made. Perhaps Jeremy Slayden is a slow-footed slugger, but he wields a powerful bat. You'll see him in Philadelphia later this year, or early next.
Labels: Eaton, Minors, Moyer, Slayden
Friday, May 02, 2008
Phillies Notes
First of all, let me lead off by noting that I haven't been posting for a week. I got kind of burned out from thinking about the Phillies last week and I needed a quick break. This week ahead prepare for a solid, five-post week on the Phillies. Sometimes I just need a quick break to get re-inspired.
Well, the Phillies managed to escape the month of April with a winning record for the first time since they went 16-12 in April, 2003. Their 15-13 record won't make Mets and Braves fans weep, but it is - combined with yesterday's 3-2 win over the Padres - enough to give the Phillies sole possession for first place in the N.L. East this morning, a half-game better than the Mets and Florida Marlins. The Braves sit three back at 12-15.
Last April the Phillies really survived a major crisis when they got off to the 4-11 start and saw the team come close to imploding: they lost their closer, suffered catastrophic injuries and their manager had a major meltdown. This April has been another crisis averted: Brad Lidge went down before the season started, the Phillies saw the 2007 N.L. MVP miss nearly the entire month with injuries, and starting center fielder Shane Victorino missed time too. Still, the team has survived and found itself sitting in first place, displaying real grit and determination.
What of the mighty Mets? Well, Jose Reyes is struggling badly with a .307 OBP and three caught stealings in nine tries. Carlos Delgado has an OPS of .620. On the pitching side, while Johan Santana has been as good as advertised - although his Fielding Independent ERA is 4.00, partly a product of the surprisingly high number of home runs he's allowed this season - the rest of the Mets pitchers are struggling badly. Oliver Perez and John Maine have allowed nearly as many walks as strikeouts and Pedro has made just one start. Looks like the Phillies are still the team to beat.
Keep an eye on the Braves, despite their sub-.500 record. John Smoltz and Tom Glavine have ERAs below 3.00 (2.00 for Smoltz and 2.60 for Glavine) and Tim Hudson is pitching well. As soon as Chuck James (7.62 ERA) works out his issues and the Braves get a little more solid at the plate, they'll start winning and outdistance the Mets. The key, I think, for the Braves is Mark Teixeira. The Braves need him to step up his performance and get more extra-base hits. Once Teixeira begins to produce, the Braves will finally have an offense to match their pitching staff.
The return of Shane Victorino to the Phillies lineup is welcome. As a team the Phillies are really struggling to steal bases and hit triples. At the moment they've stolen just 12 bases in 17 tries and they've hit just three triples. Once J.Roll returns and Victorino gets his groove on, the Phillies will finally have the speed to challenge the opposition. They've already hit an astonishing 42 home runs, but they cannot continue to rely on the long ball exclusively to score runs. One of the keys to the Phillies success in 2007 was that they were ruthlessly efficient in stretching the defense with a lot of successful steals and triples.
Here is a scary thought, Mets and Braves fans: the Phillies success in hitting home runs is partly because Chase Utley (11) and Pat Burrell (8) are on a major tear. Ryan Howard has hit just 6 this season, a low total. Once Howard begins hitting home runs the Phillies could have three 40+ home run guys on their roster. Yikes.
Giants vs. Phillies. The Phillies continue the second half of their six game homestand against N.L. West teams with a three game series against the San Francisco Giants. This will be the first time the Phillies have faced off with former Phillie center fielder Aaron Rowand. The 13-16 Giants are playing well in Year One of A.B. (After Barry.) These are going to be some rough years for Giants fans. They have an old team built around the idea of making a last run on the World Series for Bonds and nearly zero talent in their farm system. Right now they are riding their pitching staff and they are lucky to have some real talent there. Sunday is going to feature a terrific pitching duel between Cole Hamels (3-3, 2.70 ERA) and Tim Lincecum (4-1, 1.73 ERA). Lincecum and Matt Cain (Brett Myers foe Saturday night) are very good hurlers and will help keep the Giants competitive while they rebuild.
Offensively the Giants have moved far, far away from Barryball. They've hit just 16 home runs, but they've stole 33 bases so far. Interestingly, their top base-stealer has just six, so they really run a balanced speed game. As for Rowand: he's hitting .326 but his OBP is only .366. He's also hit just 2 home runs and 14 RBI. His production is going to fall off as the season progresses and he gets less and less lucky in putting the ball into play. The Phillies may miss his intensity, but they won't miss his bat. At all.
Minors Update. The Lehigh Valley IronPigs, the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, is off to a 3-24 start - yes you read that right: three wins and twenty-four losses - in International League play. As a team the IronPigs are dead-last in the IL in OPS (at .573 they are over one hundred points worse than the next-worst team, the Columbus Clippers) and in ERA. Travis Blackley is 0-3 with a 6.64 ERA and Jason Durbin is 0-5 with a 9.61 ERA. The IronPigs big power slugger, Brennan King, is hitting .204 with just one home run and five RBIs.
The Phillies two hot prospects at Lehigh Valley, Jason Jamarillo and J.A. Happ, are on different tracks. J.A. Happ is 0-3, but has actually pitched well: he has an ERA of 3.51 and has struck out 37 hitters in 33 and one-thirds of an inning. Happ has largely been done in by the fact that the IronPigs are awful. Happ might still earn a call-up with the Phillies if Kendrick struggles.
The highly touted Jason Jamarillo has some issues: .193 Batting Average, 2 Home Runs, 3 RBI. I'd say that Chris Coste's job as the backup catcher is very safe.
Over in Berks County, the Reading Phillies are 13-12 and sit three games out of first place in the Eastern League's Southern Division. Outfielder Gregory Golson is off to a terrific start: .320 batting average, 6 doubles, 2 triples, 2 home runs and 15 RBI and eight steals in eleven tries in twenty-five games. Jeremy Slayden, the powerful outfielder who I think is vastly under-rated by scouts and pundits, is hitting .310 with three home runs, twenty RBI and seven doubles.
In Clearwater the Threshers are 9-17 and sit in the Florida State League's Western division's cellar. Prospects Adrian Cardenas and Joe Savery are doing well: Savery has a 2.92 ERA and Cardenas is hitting .347. Finally, over at the Jersey Shore, the Lakewood Blue Claws are 13-13.
Monday, more!
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Well, the Phillies managed to escape the month of April with a winning record for the first time since they went 16-12 in April, 2003. Their 15-13 record won't make Mets and Braves fans weep, but it is - combined with yesterday's 3-2 win over the Padres - enough to give the Phillies sole possession for first place in the N.L. East this morning, a half-game better than the Mets and Florida Marlins. The Braves sit three back at 12-15.
Last April the Phillies really survived a major crisis when they got off to the 4-11 start and saw the team come close to imploding: they lost their closer, suffered catastrophic injuries and their manager had a major meltdown. This April has been another crisis averted: Brad Lidge went down before the season started, the Phillies saw the 2007 N.L. MVP miss nearly the entire month with injuries, and starting center fielder Shane Victorino missed time too. Still, the team has survived and found itself sitting in first place, displaying real grit and determination.
What of the mighty Mets? Well, Jose Reyes is struggling badly with a .307 OBP and three caught stealings in nine tries. Carlos Delgado has an OPS of .620. On the pitching side, while Johan Santana has been as good as advertised - although his Fielding Independent ERA is 4.00, partly a product of the surprisingly high number of home runs he's allowed this season - the rest of the Mets pitchers are struggling badly. Oliver Perez and John Maine have allowed nearly as many walks as strikeouts and Pedro has made just one start. Looks like the Phillies are still the team to beat.
Keep an eye on the Braves, despite their sub-.500 record. John Smoltz and Tom Glavine have ERAs below 3.00 (2.00 for Smoltz and 2.60 for Glavine) and Tim Hudson is pitching well. As soon as Chuck James (7.62 ERA) works out his issues and the Braves get a little more solid at the plate, they'll start winning and outdistance the Mets. The key, I think, for the Braves is Mark Teixeira. The Braves need him to step up his performance and get more extra-base hits. Once Teixeira begins to produce, the Braves will finally have an offense to match their pitching staff.
The return of Shane Victorino to the Phillies lineup is welcome. As a team the Phillies are really struggling to steal bases and hit triples. At the moment they've stolen just 12 bases in 17 tries and they've hit just three triples. Once J.Roll returns and Victorino gets his groove on, the Phillies will finally have the speed to challenge the opposition. They've already hit an astonishing 42 home runs, but they cannot continue to rely on the long ball exclusively to score runs. One of the keys to the Phillies success in 2007 was that they were ruthlessly efficient in stretching the defense with a lot of successful steals and triples.
Here is a scary thought, Mets and Braves fans: the Phillies success in hitting home runs is partly because Chase Utley (11) and Pat Burrell (8) are on a major tear. Ryan Howard has hit just 6 this season, a low total. Once Howard begins hitting home runs the Phillies could have three 40+ home run guys on their roster. Yikes.
Giants vs. Phillies. The Phillies continue the second half of their six game homestand against N.L. West teams with a three game series against the San Francisco Giants. This will be the first time the Phillies have faced off with former Phillie center fielder Aaron Rowand. The 13-16 Giants are playing well in Year One of A.B. (After Barry.) These are going to be some rough years for Giants fans. They have an old team built around the idea of making a last run on the World Series for Bonds and nearly zero talent in their farm system. Right now they are riding their pitching staff and they are lucky to have some real talent there. Sunday is going to feature a terrific pitching duel between Cole Hamels (3-3, 2.70 ERA) and Tim Lincecum (4-1, 1.73 ERA). Lincecum and Matt Cain (Brett Myers foe Saturday night) are very good hurlers and will help keep the Giants competitive while they rebuild.
Offensively the Giants have moved far, far away from Barryball. They've hit just 16 home runs, but they've stole 33 bases so far. Interestingly, their top base-stealer has just six, so they really run a balanced speed game. As for Rowand: he's hitting .326 but his OBP is only .366. He's also hit just 2 home runs and 14 RBI. His production is going to fall off as the season progresses and he gets less and less lucky in putting the ball into play. The Phillies may miss his intensity, but they won't miss his bat. At all.
Minors Update. The Lehigh Valley IronPigs, the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, is off to a 3-24 start - yes you read that right: three wins and twenty-four losses - in International League play. As a team the IronPigs are dead-last in the IL in OPS (at .573 they are over one hundred points worse than the next-worst team, the Columbus Clippers) and in ERA. Travis Blackley is 0-3 with a 6.64 ERA and Jason Durbin is 0-5 with a 9.61 ERA. The IronPigs big power slugger, Brennan King, is hitting .204 with just one home run and five RBIs.
The Phillies two hot prospects at Lehigh Valley, Jason Jamarillo and J.A. Happ, are on different tracks. J.A. Happ is 0-3, but has actually pitched well: he has an ERA of 3.51 and has struck out 37 hitters in 33 and one-thirds of an inning. Happ has largely been done in by the fact that the IronPigs are awful. Happ might still earn a call-up with the Phillies if Kendrick struggles.
The highly touted Jason Jamarillo has some issues: .193 Batting Average, 2 Home Runs, 3 RBI. I'd say that Chris Coste's job as the backup catcher is very safe.
Over in Berks County, the Reading Phillies are 13-12 and sit three games out of first place in the Eastern League's Southern Division. Outfielder Gregory Golson is off to a terrific start: .320 batting average, 6 doubles, 2 triples, 2 home runs and 15 RBI and eight steals in eleven tries in twenty-five games. Jeremy Slayden, the powerful outfielder who I think is vastly under-rated by scouts and pundits, is hitting .310 with three home runs, twenty RBI and seven doubles.
In Clearwater the Threshers are 9-17 and sit in the Florida State League's Western division's cellar. Prospects Adrian Cardenas and Joe Savery are doing well: Savery has a 2.92 ERA and Cardenas is hitting .347. Finally, over at the Jersey Shore, the Lakewood Blue Claws are 13-13.
Monday, more!
Labels: Braves, Bruntlett, Burrell, Hamels, Mets, Minors, Myers, Pitching, Rollins, Utley, Victorino
Monday, April 14, 2008
Farm Report Preview: the Minors in 2008
The Farm Report, a semi-regular focus on the Phillies minor league system, was born out of Cole Hamels meteroic rise through the Phillies system in 2006. Much-discussed by others, Hamels burst upon the scene in an explosion that largely took me by surprise and made me realize that I knew practically nothing about the Phillies minor-leaguers. In recent years we've seen many prospects move through the system and become productive members of the Phillies roster: Chase Utley, Chris Coste, Hamels, Carlos Ruiz, Ryan Howard, etc. The Phillies have an under-appreciate farm system that has been producing most of the team's stars. I resolved to never let another minor-league hot-shot catch me by surprise again.
With the 2008 Season under way I thought that I'd take a break from talking about the activity at Citizens Bank to focus on the Phillies four active minor league teams*.
* The Phillies actually have six established minor league teams: the four mentioned above as well as the Short-Season Single-A Williamsport Crosscutters and the Rookie League Gulf Coast League Phillies. The Crosscutters and GCL Phillies don't get their seasons started until the MLB Draft this summer because their rosters are filled out by the Draft.
We start first in beautiful Allentown, Pennsylvania ...
I. The Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Triple-A). The IronPigs begin their inaugural season as the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, the third move of the Phillies Triple-A site in the last three years. Previously the Phillies Triple-A team in the International League (IL) had been the Scranton Red Barons (now the Yankees Triple-A team), and then the Ottawa Lynx last season. The Lynx are now defunct - the final Canadian team in the fourteen-team IL - and the team moved to the Lehigh Valley area and was redubbed the "IronPigs" in honor of the Allentown-area's rich steel industry heritage.
I hope that the fans in Allentown aren't expecting a great baseball team because the 2008 IronPigs will likely struggle. The '07 Lynx finished the regular season with a 55-88 record, worst in the IL, and many of the same players return from a team that posted the highest ERA in the IL and featured the worst OPS in the IL.
Notable prospects:
Jason Jamarillo - Catcher
J.A. Happ - Pitcher
Jason Jamarillo is a player that really wasn't on my radar until he was listed on Baseball America's list of Top Ten Phillies prospects at #10. Jamarillo, a second-round pick by the Phillies in the 2004 Draft, was a 2005 South Atlantic League (SAL) All-Star with the Lakewood Blue Claws. He also also a 2007 mid-season All Star with the Lynx last season, hitting .271 (.350 OBP), with six home runs, 56 RBI and 52 Runs Scored. Jamarillo seems like a solid and dependable catcher, the sort of player who might be backing Carlos Ruiz up in 2009, or later this season if Ruiz or Chris Coste go down. What impresses me about Jamarillo is his bat control: 1.58 K/BB ratio at the plate ... J.A. Happ, who was picked in the third round of the 2004 Draft after Jamarillo, will be in his second season in Triple-A this year, having gone 4-6 w
ith a 5.02 ERA with the Lynx in 2007. Happ's sole major league appearance was a catastrophic drubbing at the hands of the New York Mets last June at what might have been the low point in the season for the Phillies. The experience seemed to kill Happ for 2007, as he had swiftly risen through the ranks of the Phillies minor league system in 2005 and 2006, posting a 2.81 ERA with a 4.05 K/BB ratio with the Clearwater Threshers and a 2.64 ERA with a 2.79 K/BB ratio with the Reading Phillies. Can Happ regain his form with the IronPigs? He's the most likely minor league candidate to make the Phillies rotation and contribute in any meaningful way this season ... After that the IronPigs roster looks a little thin of talent. Never fear, people of Allentown, because future members of the IronPigs include ...
II. Reading Phillies (Double-A). If you live in the Reading metro area my advice to you right now is to go down to the Reading Phillies stadium and buy yourself some tickets. A lot of tickets. A slew of future major leaguers will be playing in beautiful Berks County, Pennsylvania, and you shouldn't miss out on seeing the stars of tomorrow ... Today.
Notable prospects:
Carlos Carrasco - Pitcher
Joshua Outman - Pitcher
Andrew Carpenter - Pitcher
Greg Golson - Outfield
Jeremy Slayden - Outfield
Jason Donald - Infield
Lou Marson - Catcher
Carlos Carrasco is the consensus pick by the experts as the Phillies top propect and Outman is right behind. Don't be surprised to see both occupying the #3 and #4 slots in the Phillies rotation as early as Opening Day 2009. Donald is a terrific prospect to occupy shortstop or second base in the event that Jimmy Rollins or Chase Utley go down and Slayden is a major talent flying under the radar of most people. Let's start with Carlos Carrasco ... Carrasco is the consensus pick as the gem of the Phillies farm system these days. Baseball Prospectus (click here for Baseball Prospectus' article on the Phillies top prospects), Baseball America (click here for Baseball America's write-up on the Phillies) and Top Prospect Alert (click here for Top Prospect Alert's article on the Phillies prospects) all rank Carrasco #1 in the Phillies system, and Keith Law of ESPN made Carrasco the only Phillie prospect on his list of the Top 100 Prospects in the minor leagues right now. Carrasco was spectacular in 2006 along with Outman and Matthew Maloney, as the trio smashed the opposition on their way to a 2006 SAL title. Carrasco went 12-6 with a 2.26 ERA and 159 strikeouts in 159 innings in 2006. Carrasco advanced into Advanced Single-A with the Threshers early last season and dominated again, going 6-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 53 strikeouts in 69 innings. Carrasco struggled in Double-A with the Reading Phillies, going 6-4, but seeing his ERA spike two runs to 4.86. His formitable K/BB ratio dropped:
K/BB ratio:
Single-A ('06): 2.45
Advanced-A ('07): 2.41
Double-A ('07): 1.06
as long as possible, so don't expect to see him in Philadelphia with Brett Myers and Cole Carrasco needs to work on his control more and expect him to go back to those terrifyingly good numbers he posted in Si
ngle-A and Advanced-A ball soon. The Phillies want to protect CarrascoHamels until 2009 at the earliest. It seems likely that he'll spend most of 2008 in Reading before getting the call to go to Allentown until later in the season ... Vastly underrated is Josh Outman, a talented pitcher who was Carrasco and Maloney's teammate in Lakewood in 2006, where he went 14=6 with a 2.95 ERA. Outman joined Carrasco in Clearwater and was every bit as impressive, going 10-4 with a 2.45 ERA. Impressively, Outman struck-out 117 batters in 117 innings of work. Like Carrasco, Outman joined the Reading Phillies and struggled a little, going 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA. In many respects though, Outman out-pitched Carrasco in Reading: his K/BB ratio was 1.47. Despite his obvious talent and proven track record, Outman has largely flown under the radar of most observers, ranking fourth in Baseball America's, Baseball Prospectus' and Top Prospect Alert's looks at the Phillies farm system ... Andrew Carpenter is the third pitcher in the Reading Phillies rotation and he ought not to be ignored. Carpenter, who ranks ninth on Baseball America's list of Phillies prospects, went 17-6 with a 3.20 ERA in 2007 with the Threshers. Durable, tough, Carpenter got stronger as the '07 season wore on, going 10-2 with a 2.05 ERA after the Florida State League mid-season All Star Game. Not quite the strikeout pitcher Outman or Carrasco are, Carpenter is a solid pitcher who doesn't allow many walks (2.93 BB/9) ... Gregory Golson first selection in the draft out of John enters his fifth season in the minor leagues, hoping to finally make the majors after battling his way from rookie ball in 2004, when he was the Phillies draft choice out of Connally High School in Texas. Golson is an extremely talented individual who might make a great major-leaguer one day, but for a massive problem with his game. Let's start with Golson's pluses. The guy is fast. In 2007 he stole 25 of 33 bases (76%) with the Clearwater Threshers and hit three triples. After joining the Reading Phillies later in the season Golson hit two more triples and stole all five bases he attempted. Golson went to Arizona to play in the Arizona Winter League and was eight-for-eight in steals with the Peoria Saguaros and hit three more triples. All of this was on the heels of a season in 2006 where he stole 30 of 40 bases and hit six triples with Lakewood and Clearwater. Golson has speed. And Golson has some power at the plate: he hit fifteen home runs in 136 games last season. Golson has power. What Gregory Golson does not struck-out 173 times in 571 minor league At-Bats and drew just 23 walks. As a consequence player-of-comparison, had a minor league have is the ability to get on base. In 2007 Golson's .273 batting average looked much less impressive when compared to his .305 OBP. In 2006 Golson K'd 160 times in 546 At Bats and walked just 30 times. His OBP was a mind-bogglingly awful .277 ... Golson's usefulness to the Phillies, beyond being an occasional pinch-hitter and defensive substitution, is rather limited. Before Golson can hope of being Michael Bourn II (who had a minor league OBP of .377) , he needs to learn how to draw walks and avoid striking out. When he does that, he'll shine ... How Jeremy Slayden has flown under the radar of the pundits - he appears on no Top Ten list for Baseball America, for Baseball Prospectus or for Top Prospect Alert - and Billy Beane and the Oakland A's, I'll never understand. The 2005 Draft choice out of Georgia Tech had a break-out season in 2007, smashing 14 home runs and 73 RBI in 118 games in the pitching-friendly Florida State League with the Threshers. Slayden's OPS+ was a robust 117. Slayden has exceptional slugging skills (.171 ISO in 2007), draws walks (60 in '07, coupled with a .376 OBP), and even occasionally steals bases and moves speedily (seven-of-eight in steals and four triples in 2007). Despite hitting so well at the plate, Slayden doesn't strikeout as much as a player like Greg Golson. Slayden might not be the best defensive outfielder in the Phillies system, but he's the classic Moneyball walks-and-home runs player. Perhaps Slayden has never appeared on the radar of Billy Beane, but he ought to. I hope Slayden, who is probably my favorite Phillies minor leaguer, makes the Phillies eventually ... Jason Donald is an interesting case. Completely ignored by Baseball America, he's #8 on Baseball Prospectus' list and #10 on Top Prospect Alert's. The 2006 draft pick out of the University of Arizona is extremely talented middle infielder and ought to have a bright future in the Phillies organization backing up Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley in 2009. Donald began his minor league career in the New York - Penn League (NYPL) with the Batavia Muckdogs (the Phillies former Short-Season Single-A franchise) and did some impressive work: .347 OBP, 12 steals in 13 tries, two triples ... He joined the Lakewood Blue Claws and found himself in the awkward position of playing the same position - shortstop - as the Phillies highly touted prospect Adrian Cardenas (see, Clearwater). The Phillies liked Donald enough they shifted Cardenas over the second base in Lakewood and let Donald play short. Donald responded with a .409 OBP and three triples (though, bizarrely, he was caught stealing five of seven times). Donald played well enough that the Phillies moved him to Clearwater to play with the Threshers. Again, Donald played well: .386 OBP and five triples. In Clearwater, where he spent most of the season, Donald actually developed something of a power stroke, posting a .191 Isolated Power (ISO) at the plate, impressive in the FSL, where the league average for ISO was .122 ... It is a little difficult to evaluate Donald's defensive skills (see, Freddy Galvis, below) but he seems to be a solid player. If Eric Bruntlett struggles as the backup middle infielder, it would not surprise me at all to see Donald in Philadelphia by the end of the season. At a minimum, he'll be a member of the IronPigs ... Finally, we come to Lou Marson, the talented catcher who is on the Reading Phillies roster. Marson caught Maloney, Outman and Carrasco in '06 when the Blue Claws obliterated the opposition on their way to the SAL title and he continued to catch them in 2007 with the Threshers. Along the way he's posted some solid stats, including a .373 OBP with Clearwater last season and an impressive .336 batting average with runners in scoring position (BA/RISP). I'd expect to see Marson on the Phillies roster in 2010 ... As you can see, there is a lot of talent currently in the Phillies system at Reading. Reading residents are lucky that so many terrific players who will be occupying important roles with the Phillies in 2009 and 2010 currently on the Reading Phillies roster right now.
III. Clearwater Threshers (Advanced Single-A). After Reading the second treasure trove of Phillies prospects sit in Clearwater. The Phillies have three terrific prospects who could have every bit as significant of an impact on the Phillies as Carrasco, Outman and Donald, although the prospects laboring under the hot Florida sun this year won't factor into the Phillies plans until 2010, at least.
Notable Prospects:
Joe Savery - Pitcher
Kyle Drabek - Pitcher
Adrian Cardenas - Infielder
We'll start with Joe Savery, the Phillies first selection in the 2007 Draft out of Rice University. The left-handed Savery went 2-3 with a 2.73 ERA with the Williamsport Crosscutters last season. Savery didn't surrender a single home run and struck-out 22 in 26 innings of work (7.5 K/9). Savery also allowed 13 walks, or 4.4 BB/9, which suggests that he's either still trying to get his control down or that he's going to be the type of pitcher who tosses a lot of pitchers because he tends to work the corners ... Kyle Drabek, the Phillies first selection in the 2006 Draft out of high school in Texas, will be hurling alongside Savery. Drabek threw well for the Lakewood Blue Claws before going down with an injury: amassing a 5-1 record with a 4.33 ERA. Drabek allowed 1.5 HR/9, 3.83 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 and had a 2:1 K/BB ratio. He had the added benefit of pitching in 2006 for the Gulf Coast League Phillies so he had some experience coming into 2007. The Phillies have high hopes for Savery and Drabek to contribute to the Phillies in 2010 and beyond or to be valuable trade bait in the event that the Phillies need to make a push for the playoffs ... The prize of the Threshers roster i
s Adrian Cardenas, the exceptionally talented high schooler from Florida whom the Phillies took in the supplemental round of 2006 Draft after Drabek. Cardenas, who destroyed high school pitching in Florida and accumulated awards like they were going out of style, has gotten off to a swift start in his first two seasons of minor league ball. Last season with the Blue Claws he had an OBP of .354 and hit 9 home runs and 30 doubles (.417 Slugging Percentage), along with 79 RBI and showed a lot of speed: 20 steals in 27 tries. Cardenas also posted impressive numbers in 2006 when he was drafted out of high school, stealing 13 of 16 bases in the Gulf Coast League and hitting four triples with a batting average of .318. He's a fast player who makes contact, plays terrific defense and has a little power. In terms of position players, Cardenas is clearly the prize pick in the Phillies system. Baseball America to Chase put him as the best position player in the Phillies system and second-best as a prospect to Carrasco, an opinion Baseball Prospectus and Top Prospect Alert shared. He bears a striking resemblenceUtley and will likely man a position in the outfield in 2010 or 2011 at Citizens Bank Ballpark ... After Savery, Drabek and Cardenas, the quality of the talent in Clearwater falls off a little. It is possible that while the quantity of talent isn't as deep in Clearwater, the quality might be better in the long run, as the Threshers might produce three terrific players.
IV. Lakewood Blue Claws (Single-A). Finally, we come to the Lakewood Blue Claws, who will be featuring players entering their first full season of minor league baseball in 2008. Nearly all of the players on the Blue Claws roster will be 2007 Draft choices who cut their teeth in Clearwater and Williamsport last season after they were drafted.
Notable Prospects:
Dominic Brown - Outfield
Travis Mattair - Third Base
Karl Bolt - First Base
Tyler Mach - Second Base
Freddy Galvis - Shortstop
Dominic Brown usually graduate to Single-A ball, not Short-Season Single-A in their second year) and played very well, stealing 14 of 21 bases and hitting five triples. Brown seems to have a lot of speed and a knack for getting on base, as he hit .295 in 2007 (.356 makes a nice starting point for our analysis of the Blue Claws roster. The 2006 Draft pick played in Williamsport last season (why, I am unsure, as Rookie LeaguersOBP) and managed to score 43 runs with a team that really struggled at the plate. Brown is the only prospect on the Blue Claws roster to earn much recognition from the pundits, ranking #6 on Baseball America's list, the second-best position player after Cardenas. Many have compared him to Darryl Strawberry ... The shame of it is that there is plenty of other talent on the Blue Claws. Freddy Galvis, the talented shortstop, deserves mention here as perhaps the finest defensive player in the Phillies system. Galvis can't hit - an abysmal .255 OBP in 2007 with the Crosscutters - but he can field and has won praise for his terrific fielding, being called the Phillies best defensive infielder by Baseball America. In a pre-season interview with the Daily News' Bill Conlon, Phillies minor league director Steve Noworyta stated that if the Phillies had to find a replacement in 2008 for Jimmy Rollins and if defense were the primary consideration, Galvis would be promoted to Philly over the other infield prospects in their system, quite a statement ... Karl Bolt, a 2007 draft pick out of the U.S. Air Force Academy, is another Jeremy Slayden-type who has flown under the radar of the scouts and pundits. Bolt was astonishing with the Gulf Coast League Phillies, hitting eight home runs and 31 RBI in 57 games. Bolt's Isolated Power (ISO) at the plate was a terrific .203. Bolt's OPS+ was 115, an impressive total in the weak-hitting GCL ... Another Blue Claw I am very impressed by is Tyler Mach, their new second baseman, who had a .362 OBP in the NYPL last season and hit five home runs and 38 RBI in 65 games. What really impresses me is that Mach drew 21 walks against 33 strikeouts, despite being a power-oriented hitter ... And finally, Travis Mattair, who struggled a little in the GCL last season (.297 OBP) but has great promise, and might be a worthy heir to Mike Schmidt as a Phillies Third Baseman ...
Conclusions: The Phillies systems don't really rate much notice from the pundits the way the Angels and their focus on high school players and the A's and their much derided fixation on college players occupy the attention of the punditry around Draft time. It is hard to argue with the development of players that the Phillies have made from within their system: Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Victorino, Ruiz, Utley, Myers ... These are all homegrown players, homegrown talent that honed their skills in Scranton and Reading and Clearwater on their way to Philadelphia. I doubt anyone beyond Happ or Jamarillo will make much of an impact from the farm system in 2008, but starting in 2009 and 2010, there will be an influx of talented players arriving in Philadelphia. Imagine a Phillies roster with Adrian Cardenas hitting behind Utley, J.Roll and Howard. Imagine Greg Golson stealing bases. Imagine Hamels and Myers getting teamed up with Outman and Carrasco in the rotation. The groundwork has been laid for a team that might not be merely good, but great in 2010. We shall see, but the future is bright, says I.
The interesting thing looking at the Phillies system is where the talent is distributed. The team's phobia about pitching, born out of four long seasons of watching home runs sail out of Citizens bank Ballpark, was to respond by devoting tremendous resources to getting pitching. Right there in the upper three levels of the Phillies system is a glut of pitching: Carrasco, Outman, Carpenter, Drabek, Savery, Happ. The team's realization that they needed to restock the position players within the system led to the Drafting of Donald and Cardenas in '06 but a real focus on position players in '07, when Mach, Galvis, and Mattair were taken.
So that's the farm report. We'll revisit this in a few weeks. Tomorrow I'll recap the Cubs & Phillies and give some thoughts on the week ahead.
With the 2008 Season under way I thought that I'd take a break from talking about the activity at Citizens Bank to focus on the Phillies four active minor league teams*.
* The Phillies actually have six established minor league teams: the four mentioned above as well as the Short-Season Single-A Williamsport Crosscutters and the Rookie League Gulf Coast League Phillies. The Crosscutters and GCL Phillies don't get their seasons started until the MLB Draft this summer because their rosters are filled out by the Draft.
We start first in beautiful Allentown, Pennsylvania ...
I. The Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Triple-A). The IronPigs begin their inaugural season as the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, the third move of the Phillies Triple-A site in the last three years. Previously the Phillies Triple-A team in the International League (IL) had been the Scranton Red Barons (now the Yankees Triple-A team), and then the Ottawa Lynx last season. The Lynx are now defunct - the final Canadian team in the fourteen-team IL - and the team moved to the Lehigh Valley area and was redubbed the "IronPigs" in honor of the Allentown-area's rich steel industry heritage.
I hope that the fans in Allentown aren't expecting a great baseball team because the 2008 IronPigs will likely struggle. The '07 Lynx finished the regular season with a 55-88 record, worst in the IL, and many of the same players return from a team that posted the highest ERA in the IL and featured the worst OPS in the IL.
Notable prospects:
Jason Jamarillo - Catcher
J.A. Happ - Pitcher
Jason Jamarillo is a player that really wasn't on my radar until he was listed on Baseball America's list of Top Ten Phillies prospects at #10. Jamarillo, a second-round pick by the Phillies in the 2004 Draft, was a 2005 South Atlantic League (SAL) All-Star with the Lakewood Blue Claws. He also also a 2007 mid-season All Star with the Lynx last season, hitting .271 (.350 OBP), with six home runs, 56 RBI and 52 Runs Scored. Jamarillo seems like a solid and dependable catcher, the sort of player who might be backing Carlos Ruiz up in 2009, or later this season if Ruiz or Chris Coste go down. What impresses me about Jamarillo is his bat control: 1.58 K/BB ratio at the plate ... J.A. Happ, who was picked in the third round of the 2004 Draft after Jamarillo, will be in his second season in Triple-A this year, having gone 4-6 w
ith a 5.02 ERA with the Lynx in 2007. Happ's sole major league appearance was a catastrophic drubbing at the hands of the New York Mets last June at what might have been the low point in the season for the Phillies. The experience seemed to kill Happ for 2007, as he had swiftly risen through the ranks of the Phillies minor league system in 2005 and 2006, posting a 2.81 ERA with a 4.05 K/BB ratio with the Clearwater Threshers and a 2.64 ERA with a 2.79 K/BB ratio with the Reading Phillies. Can Happ regain his form with the IronPigs? He's the most likely minor league candidate to make the Phillies rotation and contribute in any meaningful way this season ... After that the IronPigs roster looks a little thin of talent. Never fear, people of Allentown, because future members of the IronPigs include ...II. Reading Phillies (Double-A). If you live in the Reading metro area my advice to you right now is to go down to the Reading Phillies stadium and buy yourself some tickets. A lot of tickets. A slew of future major leaguers will be playing in beautiful Berks County, Pennsylvania, and you shouldn't miss out on seeing the stars of tomorrow ... Today.
Notable prospects:
Carlos Carrasco - Pitcher
Joshua Outman - Pitcher
Andrew Carpenter - Pitcher
Greg Golson - Outfield
Jeremy Slayden - Outfield
Jason Donald - Infield
Lou Marson - Catcher
Carlos Carrasco is the consensus pick by the experts as the Phillies top propect and Outman is right behind. Don't be surprised to see both occupying the #3 and #4 slots in the Phillies rotation as early as Opening Day 2009. Donald is a terrific prospect to occupy shortstop or second base in the event that Jimmy Rollins or Chase Utley go down and Slayden is a major talent flying under the radar of most people. Let's start with Carlos Carrasco ... Carrasco is the consensus pick as the gem of the Phillies farm system these days. Baseball Prospectus (click here for Baseball Prospectus' article on the Phillies top prospects), Baseball America (click here for Baseball America's write-up on the Phillies) and Top Prospect Alert (click here for Top Prospect Alert's article on the Phillies prospects) all rank Carrasco #1 in the Phillies system, and Keith Law of ESPN made Carrasco the only Phillie prospect on his list of the Top 100 Prospects in the minor leagues right now. Carrasco was spectacular in 2006 along with Outman and Matthew Maloney, as the trio smashed the opposition on their way to a 2006 SAL title. Carrasco went 12-6 with a 2.26 ERA and 159 strikeouts in 159 innings in 2006. Carrasco advanced into Advanced Single-A with the Threshers early last season and dominated again, going 6-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 53 strikeouts in 69 innings. Carrasco struggled in Double-A with the Reading Phillies, going 6-4, but seeing his ERA spike two runs to 4.86. His formitable K/BB ratio dropped:
K/BB ratio:
Single-A ('06): 2.45
Advanced-A ('07): 2.41
Double-A ('07): 1.06
as long as possible, so don't expect to see him in Philadelphia with Brett Myers and Cole Carrasco needs to work on his control more and expect him to go back to those terrifyingly good numbers he posted in Si
ngle-A and Advanced-A ball soon. The Phillies want to protect CarrascoHamels until 2009 at the earliest. It seems likely that he'll spend most of 2008 in Reading before getting the call to go to Allentown until later in the season ... Vastly underrated is Josh Outman, a talented pitcher who was Carrasco and Maloney's teammate in Lakewood in 2006, where he went 14=6 with a 2.95 ERA. Outman joined Carrasco in Clearwater and was every bit as impressive, going 10-4 with a 2.45 ERA. Impressively, Outman struck-out 117 batters in 117 innings of work. Like Carrasco, Outman joined the Reading Phillies and struggled a little, going 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA. In many respects though, Outman out-pitched Carrasco in Reading: his K/BB ratio was 1.47. Despite his obvious talent and proven track record, Outman has largely flown under the radar of most observers, ranking fourth in Baseball America's, Baseball Prospectus' and Top Prospect Alert's looks at the Phillies farm system ... Andrew Carpenter is the third pitcher in the Reading Phillies rotation and he ought not to be ignored. Carpenter, who ranks ninth on Baseball America's list of Phillies prospects, went 17-6 with a 3.20 ERA in 2007 with the Threshers. Durable, tough, Carpenter got stronger as the '07 season wore on, going 10-2 with a 2.05 ERA after the Florida State League mid-season All Star Game. Not quite the strikeout pitcher Outman or Carrasco are, Carpenter is a solid pitcher who doesn't allow many walks (2.93 BB/9) ... Gregory Golson first selection in the draft out of John enters his fifth season in the minor leagues, hoping to finally make the majors after battling his way from rookie ball in 2004, when he was the Phillies draft choice out of Connally High School in Texas. Golson is an extremely talented individual who might make a great major-leaguer one day, but for a massive problem with his game. Let's start with Golson's pluses. The guy is fast. In 2007 he stole 25 of 33 bases (76%) with the Clearwater Threshers and hit three triples. After joining the Reading Phillies later in the season Golson hit two more triples and stole all five bases he attempted. Golson went to Arizona to play in the Arizona Winter League and was eight-for-eight in steals with the Peoria Saguaros and hit three more triples. All of this was on the heels of a season in 2006 where he stole 30 of 40 bases and hit six triples with Lakewood and Clearwater. Golson has speed. And Golson has some power at the plate: he hit fifteen home runs in 136 games last season. Golson has power. What Gregory Golson does not struck-out 173 times in 571 minor league At-Bats and drew just 23 walks. As a consequence player-of-comparison, had a minor league have is the ability to get on base. In 2007 Golson's .273 batting average looked much less impressive when compared to his .305 OBP. In 2006 Golson K'd 160 times in 546 At Bats and walked just 30 times. His OBP was a mind-bogglingly awful .277 ... Golson's usefulness to the Phillies, beyond being an occasional pinch-hitter and defensive substitution, is rather limited. Before Golson can hope of being Michael Bourn II (who had a minor league OBP of .377) , he needs to learn how to draw walks and avoid striking out. When he does that, he'll shine ... How Jeremy Slayden has flown under the radar of the pundits - he appears on no Top Ten list for Baseball America, for Baseball Prospectus or for Top Prospect Alert - and Billy Beane and the Oakland A's, I'll never understand. The 2005 Draft choice out of Georgia Tech had a break-out season in 2007, smashing 14 home runs and 73 RBI in 118 games in the pitching-friendly Florida State League with the Threshers. Slayden's OPS+ was a robust 117. Slayden has exceptional slugging skills (.171 ISO in 2007), draws walks (60 in '07, coupled with a .376 OBP), and even occasionally steals bases and moves speedily (seven-of-eight in steals and four triples in 2007). Despite hitting so well at the plate, Slayden doesn't strikeout as much as a player like Greg Golson. Slayden might not be the best defensive outfielder in the Phillies system, but he's the classic Moneyball walks-and-home runs player. Perhaps Slayden has never appeared on the radar of Billy Beane, but he ought to. I hope Slayden, who is probably my favorite Phillies minor leaguer, makes the Phillies eventually ... Jason Donald is an interesting case. Completely ignored by Baseball America, he's #8 on Baseball Prospectus' list and #10 on Top Prospect Alert's. The 2006 draft pick out of the University of Arizona is extremely talented middle infielder and ought to have a bright future in the Phillies organization backing up Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley in 2009. Donald began his minor league career in the New York - Penn League (NYPL) with the Batavia Muckdogs (the Phillies former Short-Season Single-A franchise) and did some impressive work: .347 OBP, 12 steals in 13 tries, two triples ... He joined the Lakewood Blue Claws and found himself in the awkward position of playing the same position - shortstop - as the Phillies highly touted prospect Adrian Cardenas (see, Clearwater). The Phillies liked Donald enough they shifted Cardenas over the second base in Lakewood and let Donald play short. Donald responded with a .409 OBP and three triples (though, bizarrely, he was caught stealing five of seven times). Donald played well enough that the Phillies moved him to Clearwater to play with the Threshers. Again, Donald played well: .386 OBP and five triples. In Clearwater, where he spent most of the season, Donald actually developed something of a power stroke, posting a .191 Isolated Power (ISO) at the plate, impressive in the FSL, where the league average for ISO was .122 ... It is a little difficult to evaluate Donald's defensive skills (see, Freddy Galvis, below) but he seems to be a solid player. If Eric Bruntlett struggles as the backup middle infielder, it would not surprise me at all to see Donald in Philadelphia by the end of the season. At a minimum, he'll be a member of the IronPigs ... Finally, we come to Lou Marson, the talented catcher who is on the Reading Phillies roster. Marson caught Maloney, Outman and Carrasco in '06 when the Blue Claws obliterated the opposition on their way to the SAL title and he continued to catch them in 2007 with the Threshers. Along the way he's posted some solid stats, including a .373 OBP with Clearwater last season and an impressive .336 batting average with runners in scoring position (BA/RISP). I'd expect to see Marson on the Phillies roster in 2010 ... As you can see, there is a lot of talent currently in the Phillies system at Reading. Reading residents are lucky that so many terrific players who will be occupying important roles with the Phillies in 2009 and 2010 currently on the Reading Phillies roster right now.III. Clearwater Threshers (Advanced Single-A). After Reading the second treasure trove of Phillies prospects sit in Clearwater. The Phillies have three terrific prospects who could have every bit as significant of an impact on the Phillies as Carrasco, Outman and Donald, although the prospects laboring under the hot Florida sun this year won't factor into the Phillies plans until 2010, at least.
Notable Prospects:
Joe Savery - Pitcher
Kyle Drabek - Pitcher
Adrian Cardenas - Infielder
We'll start with Joe Savery, the Phillies first selection in the 2007 Draft out of Rice University. The left-handed Savery went 2-3 with a 2.73 ERA with the Williamsport Crosscutters last season. Savery didn't surrender a single home run and struck-out 22 in 26 innings of work (7.5 K/9). Savery also allowed 13 walks, or 4.4 BB/9, which suggests that he's either still trying to get his control down or that he's going to be the type of pitcher who tosses a lot of pitchers because he tends to work the corners ... Kyle Drabek, the Phillies first selection in the 2006 Draft out of high school in Texas, will be hurling alongside Savery. Drabek threw well for the Lakewood Blue Claws before going down with an injury: amassing a 5-1 record with a 4.33 ERA. Drabek allowed 1.5 HR/9, 3.83 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 and had a 2:1 K/BB ratio. He had the added benefit of pitching in 2006 for the Gulf Coast League Phillies so he had some experience coming into 2007. The Phillies have high hopes for Savery and Drabek to contribute to the Phillies in 2010 and beyond or to be valuable trade bait in the event that the Phillies need to make a push for the playoffs ... The prize of the Threshers roster i
s Adrian Cardenas, the exceptionally talented high schooler from Florida whom the Phillies took in the supplemental round of 2006 Draft after Drabek. Cardenas, who destroyed high school pitching in Florida and accumulated awards like they were going out of style, has gotten off to a swift start in his first two seasons of minor league ball. Last season with the Blue Claws he had an OBP of .354 and hit 9 home runs and 30 doubles (.417 Slugging Percentage), along with 79 RBI and showed a lot of speed: 20 steals in 27 tries. Cardenas also posted impressive numbers in 2006 when he was drafted out of high school, stealing 13 of 16 bases in the Gulf Coast League and hitting four triples with a batting average of .318. He's a fast player who makes contact, plays terrific defense and has a little power. In terms of position players, Cardenas is clearly the prize pick in the Phillies system. Baseball America to Chase put him as the best position player in the Phillies system and second-best as a prospect to Carrasco, an opinion Baseball Prospectus and Top Prospect Alert shared. He bears a striking resemblenceUtley and will likely man a position in the outfield in 2010 or 2011 at Citizens Bank Ballpark ... After Savery, Drabek and Cardenas, the quality of the talent in Clearwater falls off a little. It is possible that while the quantity of talent isn't as deep in Clearwater, the quality might be better in the long run, as the Threshers might produce three terrific players.IV. Lakewood Blue Claws (Single-A). Finally, we come to the Lakewood Blue Claws, who will be featuring players entering their first full season of minor league baseball in 2008. Nearly all of the players on the Blue Claws roster will be 2007 Draft choices who cut their teeth in Clearwater and Williamsport last season after they were drafted.
Notable Prospects:
Dominic Brown - Outfield
Travis Mattair - Third Base
Karl Bolt - First Base
Tyler Mach - Second Base
Freddy Galvis - Shortstop
Dominic Brown usually graduate to Single-A ball, not Short-Season Single-A in their second year) and played very well, stealing 14 of 21 bases and hitting five triples. Brown seems to have a lot of speed and a knack for getting on base, as he hit .295 in 2007 (.356 makes a nice starting point for our analysis of the Blue Claws roster. The 2006 Draft pick played in Williamsport last season (why, I am unsure, as Rookie LeaguersOBP) and managed to score 43 runs with a team that really struggled at the plate. Brown is the only prospect on the Blue Claws roster to earn much recognition from the pundits, ranking #6 on Baseball America's list, the second-best position player after Cardenas. Many have compared him to Darryl Strawberry ... The shame of it is that there is plenty of other talent on the Blue Claws. Freddy Galvis, the talented shortstop, deserves mention here as perhaps the finest defensive player in the Phillies system. Galvis can't hit - an abysmal .255 OBP in 2007 with the Crosscutters - but he can field and has won praise for his terrific fielding, being called the Phillies best defensive infielder by Baseball America. In a pre-season interview with the Daily News' Bill Conlon, Phillies minor league director Steve Noworyta stated that if the Phillies had to find a replacement in 2008 for Jimmy Rollins and if defense were the primary consideration, Galvis would be promoted to Philly over the other infield prospects in their system, quite a statement ... Karl Bolt, a 2007 draft pick out of the U.S. Air Force Academy, is another Jeremy Slayden-type who has flown under the radar of the scouts and pundits. Bolt was astonishing with the Gulf Coast League Phillies, hitting eight home runs and 31 RBI in 57 games. Bolt's Isolated Power (ISO) at the plate was a terrific .203. Bolt's OPS+ was 115, an impressive total in the weak-hitting GCL ... Another Blue Claw I am very impressed by is Tyler Mach, their new second baseman, who had a .362 OBP in the NYPL last season and hit five home runs and 38 RBI in 65 games. What really impresses me is that Mach drew 21 walks against 33 strikeouts, despite being a power-oriented hitter ... And finally, Travis Mattair, who struggled a little in the GCL last season (.297 OBP) but has great promise, and might be a worthy heir to Mike Schmidt as a Phillies Third Baseman ...
Conclusions: The Phillies systems don't really rate much notice from the pundits the way the Angels and their focus on high school players and the A's and their much derided fixation on college players occupy the attention of the punditry around Draft time. It is hard to argue with the development of players that the Phillies have made from within their system: Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Victorino, Ruiz, Utley, Myers ... These are all homegrown players, homegrown talent that honed their skills in Scranton and Reading and Clearwater on their way to Philadelphia. I doubt anyone beyond Happ or Jamarillo will make much of an impact from the farm system in 2008, but starting in 2009 and 2010, there will be an influx of talented players arriving in Philadelphia. Imagine a Phillies roster with Adrian Cardenas hitting behind Utley, J.Roll and Howard. Imagine Greg Golson stealing bases. Imagine Hamels and Myers getting teamed up with Outman and Carrasco in the rotation. The groundwork has been laid for a team that might not be merely good, but great in 2010. We shall see, but the future is bright, says I.
The interesting thing looking at the Phillies system is where the talent is distributed. The team's phobia about pitching, born out of four long seasons of watching home runs sail out of Citizens bank Ballpark, was to respond by devoting tremendous resources to getting pitching. Right there in the upper three levels of the Phillies system is a glut of pitching: Carrasco, Outman, Carpenter, Drabek, Savery, Happ. The team's realization that they needed to restock the position players within the system led to the Drafting of Donald and Cardenas in '06 but a real focus on position players in '07, when Mach, Galvis, and Mattair were taken.
So that's the farm report. We'll revisit this in a few weeks. Tomorrow I'll recap the Cubs & Phillies and give some thoughts on the week ahead.
Labels: Cardenas, Carrasco, Drabek, Minors, Outman, Savery
Monday, February 18, 2008
What about Josh?
Recently I appeared on Philly Sports Talk Now with Jim and Rich and they asked me who in the Phillies minor league system might be ready to step in this season and make an impact for the team, since some of their pitching appeared to be so lackluster. Carlos Carrasco was mentioned and I noted that Carrasco seemed to be major-league ready. I neglected to mention another pitcher who is generally flying under the radar screen of most observers and even Phillies fans: Josh Outman. Outman might just be as good as Carrasco, not that anyone is noticing …
Outman, taken in the 2005 Draft out of Central Missouri State, will enter his fourth year in the Phillies system in 2008, most likely beginning the season in Double-A Reading before making the move to the Phillies new Triple-A affiliate in Allentown. Outman began his career in Batavia, throwing for the Muckdogs and going 2-1 with a 2.76 ERA (9.5 K/9) before he moved along to Lakewood, the Phillies Single-A affiliate, to be teamed with Matthew Maloney and Carrasco. The three made a fearsome trio, guiding the Blue Claws to a victory in the South Atlantic League (SAL):
Maloney: 16-9, 2.03, 9.6 K/9
Outman: 14-6, 2.45, 9.3 K/9
Carrasco: 12-6, 2.26, 9.0 K/9
Maloney, who has since been dealt to the Cincinnati Reds in a deal the team will likely come to regret, was invited to Double-A ball for 2007, while Outman and Carrasco started the season in Advanced Single-A Clearwater, playing for the Threshers. Maloney and Carrasco – generally rated as the sole Top 100 prospect in the Phillies system – have earned notice for their skills, but Outman has curiously been over-looked by scouts. Carrasco pitched well in Clearwater (6-2, 2.84) and advanced to Reading for Double-A ball. In Double-A, Carrasco has struggled a little, going 6-4, but seeing his formidable strikeout and walk totals stall:
K / BB ratio:
2006 (LAK): 2.44
2007 (CLE): 2.41
2007 (RED): 1.06
Carrasco’s ERA jumped from 2.84 in Clearwater to 4.86 in Reading. Part of all of that is the general advantage pitchers have in the Florida State League (FSL), of which Clearwater is a member. But a bigger factor he is that Carrasco has been challenged for the first time in his minor league career. How he responds will be interesting.
Outman, likewise, pitched well in FSL ball (10-4, 2.45 ERA, 2.16 K/BB ratio) and earned the invite to Reading. What has caught my eye is that Outman has out-pitched Carrasco in Reading. While his record was just 2-3, with a 4.50 ERA, his strikeout-to-walk ratio was an impressive 1.47. Outman seems to have weathered the change a little better. What has also caught my eye is the fact that Outman has been pitching in Arizona League baseball this winter and has turned on some solid numbers. In five games pitched he’s tossed thirteen and two-thirds innings with a 3.95 ERA and thirteen strikeouts to three walks.
So Outman is a formitable prospect and just as ready for the majors as Carrasco, in my opinion. According to Top Prospect Alert, Outman ranks as the Phillies fourth-best prospect and third-best pitching prospect after Carrasco and 2007 first-round draft pick Joe Savery. Since Kyle Kendrick made the jump in the Phillies hour of need from Double-A to the majors last season, it wouldn't be outside of the realm of possibility to see Carrasco or Outman make the jump to Philadelphia in 2008. For all of the attention given to Carrasco, Outman could turn out to be the mainstay in the Phillies rotation for years and years to come.
(3) comments
Outman, taken in the 2005 Draft out of Central Missouri State, will enter his fourth year in the Phillies system in 2008, most likely beginning the season in Double-A Reading before making the move to the Phillies new Triple-A affiliate in Allentown. Outman began his career in Batavia, throwing for the Muckdogs and going 2-1 with a 2.76 ERA (9.5 K/9) before he moved along to Lakewood, the Phillies Single-A affiliate, to be teamed with Matthew Maloney and Carrasco. The three made a fearsome trio, guiding the Blue Claws to a victory in the South Atlantic League (SAL):
Maloney: 16-9, 2.03, 9.6 K/9
Outman: 14-6, 2.45, 9.3 K/9
Carrasco: 12-6, 2.26, 9.0 K/9
Maloney, who has since been dealt to the Cincinnati Reds in a deal the team will likely come to regret, was invited to Double-A ball for 2007, while Outman and Carrasco started the season in Advanced Single-A Clearwater, playing for the Threshers. Maloney and Carrasco – generally rated as the sole Top 100 prospect in the Phillies system – have earned notice for their skills, but Outman has curiously been over-looked by scouts. Carrasco pitched well in Clearwater (6-2, 2.84) and advanced to Reading for Double-A ball. In Double-A, Carrasco has struggled a little, going 6-4, but seeing his formidable strikeout and walk totals stall:
K / BB ratio:
2006 (LAK): 2.44
2007 (CLE): 2.41
2007 (RED): 1.06
Carrasco’s ERA jumped from 2.84 in Clearwater to 4.86 in Reading. Part of all of that is the general advantage pitchers have in the Florida State League (FSL), of which Clearwater is a member. But a bigger factor he is that Carrasco has been challenged for the first time in his minor league career. How he responds will be interesting.
Outman, likewise, pitched well in FSL ball (10-4, 2.45 ERA, 2.16 K/BB ratio) and earned the invite to Reading. What has caught my eye is that Outman has out-pitched Carrasco in Reading. While his record was just 2-3, with a 4.50 ERA, his strikeout-to-walk ratio was an impressive 1.47. Outman seems to have weathered the change a little better. What has also caught my eye is the fact that Outman has been pitching in Arizona League baseball this winter and has turned on some solid numbers. In five games pitched he’s tossed thirteen and two-thirds innings with a 3.95 ERA and thirteen strikeouts to three walks.
So Outman is a formitable prospect and just as ready for the majors as Carrasco, in my opinion. According to Top Prospect Alert, Outman ranks as the Phillies fourth-best prospect and third-best pitching prospect after Carrasco and 2007 first-round draft pick Joe Savery. Since Kyle Kendrick made the jump in the Phillies hour of need from Double-A to the majors last season, it wouldn't be outside of the realm of possibility to see Carrasco or Outman make the jump to Philadelphia in 2008. For all of the attention given to Carrasco, Outman could turn out to be the mainstay in the Phillies rotation for years and years to come.
Labels: Carrasco, Minors, Outman, Pitching, Rotation
Thursday, November 08, 2007
More on Trade(s)
Baseball Prospectus notes that the White Sox farm system is pretty barren. Their second-best prospect is Gio Gonzalez, whom they acquired from the Phillies as part of the Freddy Garcia deal. I'm going to note once more that a deal where the Phillies acquire Joe Crede and Jon Garland for a smattering of minor-league prospects would suit both teams well: the Phillies would get a much-needed third baseman and a top-line starter while the White Sox would get 3-4 prospects to restock their farm system.
The coverage of the Phillies - Astros deal has been pretty favorable. ESPN's Jerry Crasnick takes a positive view of the deal. The Philly Inquirer's Jim Salisbury seems to agree. Lots of comments over at Todd Zolecki's The Zo Zone.
(2) comments
The coverage of the Phillies - Astros deal has been pretty favorable. ESPN's Jerry Crasnick takes a positive view of the deal. The Philly Inquirer's Jim Salisbury seems to agree. Lots of comments over at Todd Zolecki's The Zo Zone.
Labels: Minors
The Lidge Trade, Gold Gloves and Future Deals...
You may have noticed that A Citizens Blog has throttled down to 2-3 posts a week from the customary 5. Simply put, I’ve been busy and there hasn’t been much to talk about. Presently I am working on the Season In Review series, but work has been a disaster of late and I’ve been tired. I also turn sedentary in the winter time, so being energetic isn’t happening.
Let’s start with the winter meetings … Lots of deals get done at the Winter Meeting of the GM’s every year and I’d expect this year to be no different. The Phillies are in the market for pitching help and for a new third baseman. So far they’ve taken the first step to address their bullpen issues by dealing Geoff Geary, Michael Bourn and Mike Costanzo to the Houston Astros for Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett.
The Phillies give up … Michael Bourn, a fast player who wowed the Phillies by swiping 18 bases in 19 tries. In one particularly memorable game Bourn entered the game as a pinch-runner for Pat Burrell and proceeded to swipe second base, then third base, and scored on a weak grounder by Wes Helms because he was simply too fast to catch.
The thing about Bourn was that he was going to be the Phillies fourth outfielder in 2008, a defensive replacement / designated runner. Shane Victorino is going to slide into Aaron Rowand’s slot in centerfield and Jayson Werth seems destined to play rightfield for the Phillies. Both Victorino and Werth are quick but pack some power in their bats. Bourn is a one-trick pony: he runs very, very fast. I’m sure as a full-time player with the Astros he’ll steal 50-60 bases, but he’s a little like Vince Coleman, a speedster whose On-Base and Slugging Percentages weren’t so good. I’m sure Chris Roberson can fulfill the fourth outfielder slot for the Phillies just as well.
The Phillies give up … Geoff Geary, a solid set-up man whom the Phillies can ill-afford to part with. Last season Geary’s stats weren’t so great: 3-2, 4.41 ERA, 1.05 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, and 5.0 K/9. He benefited from strong defense behind him: the Phillies DER behind him was .704, so his defense-neutral stats say that he pitched worse than his ERA: his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA was 4.93. That is a great deal higher than it was his last two seasons: 3.48 FIP in 2005 and 3.58 in 2006. Is Geary slipping or have the Phillies just lost the man they need to set up Lidge’s ninth inning saves? Time shall tell.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
DER – Defense Efficiency Ratio: (Batters Faced – (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) / (Batters Faced – (Home Runs, Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) How often fielders convert balls put into play into outs.
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
Zone Rating (ZR): Is a stat which measures a player’s defensive ability by measuring plays they should have made. Admittedly, this is a stat left open to subjective opinions.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
And the Phillies give up … Mike Costanzo, the Phillies second-round pick (first overall) in the 2005 Draft is a Philly native, so it is a shame he’ll never be able to play for his hometown team. After working his way from Short-Season Single-A in 2005 to Advanced Single-A in 2006 to Double-A in 2007, Costanzo seemed poised to travel north to Allentown to play with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs in 2008. A third baseman, he is not in the Phillies plans for 2008 because he needs time in Triple-A to develop his skills. Costanzo is a solid prospect and one of the few potential everyday players being developed in the Phillies system. As a Reading Phillie he had a .368 OBP with 27 Home Runs and 86 RBI. He had a 116 OPS+ in the Eastern League. He might be the piece of the puzzle that the Phillies miss the most.
The Phillies get … Bruntlett, a classic light-hitting utility infielder. Say hello to the new Abraham Nunez.
The Phillies also get … Lidge, the prize of the deal. Lidge succeeded Billy Wagner as the Astros closer – hey, the second time that the Phillies have taken the Astros closer – and converted 29 of 33 saves in 2004, 42 of 46 in 2005, 32 of 38 in 2006 and just 19 of 27 in 2007. On the surface it looks like Lidge slipped in 2007, but his FIP ERA was right near what it was in 2006: 3.73 to 3.70. I love that Lidge gets a lot of strikeouts: 16.5 K/9 in 2004 (157 strikeouts in 94 & 2/3 innings!), 13.6 in 2005, and 11.9 in 2006 & 2007. He’s a strikeout machine like Wagner was, not a finesse-oriented closer like Tom Gordon. Just what this team needs. The only big minus I have about Lidge is that he gives up a lot of walks: 4.1 BB/9 the last two seasons.
Generally, I give the trade a qualified thumbs up. I think it will benefit the Phillies in the short-term, but I fear that trading Costanzo might come back to haunt the Phillies.
Let’s move onto the Phillies other needs … The market for bats at third is going to be pretty thin this season. You’re choices are going to be A-Rod, Mike Lowell, and … That’s about it. A-Rod’s $30 million prices him out of the Phillies budget, so Mike Lowell is pretty much it for the Phillies. Expect to see Lowell pursed by the Yankees pretty aggressively and for the Red Sox to spend money to keep him out of the Bronx.
The Phillies prospects for obtaining Lowell’s services are pretty bleak, in my opinion.
So the Phillies will likely turn to another trade. Much talk has been made of the Phillies dealing for the Rockies Garrett Atkins, because the Rockies have a very talented prospect poised to play third base, but I am skeptical that the Rockies would break-up any part of their formidable roster after their astonishing run to the World Series. No, expect the Rockies to keep Atkins or demand a King’s Ransom for his services.
I’ve said this in the past, but a key factor in whether or not a deal gets done is whether or not teams have done business in the past. The White Sox and Phillies have had numerous deals with one another since Pat Gillick took over the reins as Phillies GM: Jim Thome-for-Aaron Rowand, Gio Gonzalez/Gavin Floyd-for-Freddy Garcia, Tadahito Iguchi-for-Mike Dubee, etc. There has been a lot of traffic between the South Side of Chicago and Philly now for the last few months, so it is reasonable to assume that it will continue.
The Phillies have twin concerns: pitching and a bat at third base. Expect the team to attempt to pull-off a deal where they’ll ship some minor-league players to Chicago in exchange for Joe Crede and Jon Garland.
Crede had a terrible season in 2007 (.258 OBP, 4 Home Runs and 22 RBI in just 47 Games), but he’s a powerful bat (30 Home Runs, 31 Doubles, 94 RBI, and .223 ISO in 2006) who would be a definite upgrade over Wes Helms (5 Home Runs, 39 RBI, .297 OBP in 112 Games). Garland, a Jon Lieber-type pitcher who doesn’t surrender many walks or home runs (2.46 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9), would fit in well with the Phillies rotation and would be a good arm to round out the Phillies rotation in 2008 (Hamels, Moyer, Eaton, Myers and Garland), assuming that Brett Myers returns to the rotation.
What could the Phillies offer from their meager farm system? Greg Golson, currently playing Double-A ball with Mike Costanzo’s old team in Reading, is a position player with enough skills to entice teams. Jeremy Slayden, a slow-footed slugger from Advanced Single-A Clearwater, is a talented player who has limited prospects of playing with the newly speedy Phillies. Slayden would fit right in the American League. The White Sox seem intent on gobbling up Phillies pitching, so why not package J.D. Durbin or J.A. Happ or Kyle Drabek as part of the deal? Or Kyle Kendrick, now that the Phillies can return Myers to the rotation. He's a proven starter the Phillies can shop. The Phillies could probably part with three or four of these players and easily continue to nurture talent in the minors. Crede and Garland would be key parts to the Phillies 2008 season, while Durbin, Kendrick, et al, would go a long way towards helping the White Sox rebuilding program.
Forget free agency or a trade with the Twins for Johan Santana, this is the deal that the Phillies are going to make this off-season and it is the only one that makes sense. Moving along …
It’s almost time for award season. AL and NL Rookie of the Year on Monday, Managers of the Year next Wednesday, the AL Cy Young on Tuesday, the NL Cy Young next Thursday, then the AL MVP on Monday the 19th and the NL MVP on the 20th. I’ll predict the awards on Monday. So far baseball has handed out some awards: the Gold Gloves were awarded the other day and I was pleasantly surprised.
Two Phillies won awards: Jimmy Rollins and Aaron Rowand. I hate raining on the parade of a Phillie, but how in the world did Aaron Rowand win this award? This has to be a reward for meritorious play in 2005 with the White Sox, because Rowand is terrible these days. According to The Hardball Times Relative Zone Rating (RZR), Rowand was sixth of seven NL centerfielders in 2007 in RZR and ninth of eleven in 2006. Shane Victorino easily bested Rowand in centerfield in 2006, turning in better RZR numbers, committing fewer errors and getting more assists per inning played. In 2007, Rowand played nearly all of the Phillies defensive innings, but there were a multitude of players who turned in better performances. File this one under: “Huh?”
Jimmy Rollins got the Gold Glove for short, which again, I am skeptical about. Rollins finished ninth of fourteen N.L. shortstops in RZR. J.Roll displayed some nice range, with 65 plays on balls hit outside of his zone, but the Pirates Jack Wilson had 78 in 300 fewer innings of work. To J.Roll’s credit he was third in Fielding Percentage and second in double plays started, but I am not sure that he really was the best defensive shortstop in the N.L.
To my pleasant surprise baseball chose not to award Derek Jeter with a Gold Glove for the first time in recent memory. The decision to award Kevin “The Greek God of Walks” Youkilis the Gold Glove for first base was astonishing: Youkilis, a DH-type, led the AL in RZR at first base. Alright, being the best defensive first baseman isn’t much to boast about, but it is something and it strikes me that the pundits got it exactly right. Well done.
I’ll complete my current projects soon enough. Keep reading…
(4) comments
Let’s start with the winter meetings … Lots of deals get done at the Winter Meeting of the GM’s every year and I’d expect this year to be no different. The Phillies are in the market for pitching help and for a new third baseman. So far they’ve taken the first step to address their bullpen issues by dealing Geoff Geary, Michael Bourn and Mike Costanzo to the Houston Astros for Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett.
The Phillies give up … Michael Bourn, a fast player who wowed the Phillies by swiping 18 bases in 19 tries. In one particularly memorable game Bourn entered the game as a pinch-runner for Pat Burrell and proceeded to swipe second base, then third base, and scored on a weak grounder by Wes Helms because he was simply too fast to catch.
The thing about Bourn was that he was going to be the Phillies fourth outfielder in 2008, a defensive replacement / designated runner. Shane Victorino is going to slide into Aaron Rowand’s slot in centerfield and Jayson Werth seems destined to play rightfield for the Phillies. Both Victorino and Werth are quick but pack some power in their bats. Bourn is a one-trick pony: he runs very, very fast. I’m sure as a full-time player with the Astros he’ll steal 50-60 bases, but he’s a little like Vince Coleman, a speedster whose On-Base and Slugging Percentages weren’t so good. I’m sure Chris Roberson can fulfill the fourth outfielder slot for the Phillies just as well.
The Phillies give up … Geoff Geary, a solid set-up man whom the Phillies can ill-afford to part with. Last season Geary’s stats weren’t so great: 3-2, 4.41 ERA, 1.05 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, and 5.0 K/9. He benefited from strong defense behind him: the Phillies DER behind him was .704, so his defense-neutral stats say that he pitched worse than his ERA: his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA was 4.93. That is a great deal higher than it was his last two seasons: 3.48 FIP in 2005 and 3.58 in 2006. Is Geary slipping or have the Phillies just lost the man they need to set up Lidge’s ninth inning saves? Time shall tell.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
DER – Defense Efficiency Ratio: (Batters Faced – (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) / (Batters Faced – (Home Runs, Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) How often fielders convert balls put into play into outs.
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
Zone Rating (ZR): Is a stat which measures a player’s defensive ability by measuring plays they should have made. Admittedly, this is a stat left open to subjective opinions.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
And the Phillies give up … Mike Costanzo, the Phillies second-round pick (first overall) in the 2005 Draft is a Philly native, so it is a shame he’ll never be able to play for his hometown team. After working his way from Short-Season Single-A in 2005 to Advanced Single-A in 2006 to Double-A in 2007, Costanzo seemed poised to travel north to Allentown to play with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs in 2008. A third baseman, he is not in the Phillies plans for 2008 because he needs time in Triple-A to develop his skills. Costanzo is a solid prospect and one of the few potential everyday players being developed in the Phillies system. As a Reading Phillie he had a .368 OBP with 27 Home Runs and 86 RBI. He had a 116 OPS+ in the Eastern League. He might be the piece of the puzzle that the Phillies miss the most.
The Phillies get … Bruntlett, a classic light-hitting utility infielder. Say hello to the new Abraham Nunez.
The Phillies also get … Lidge, the prize of the deal. Lidge succeeded Billy Wagner as the Astros closer – hey, the second time that the Phillies have taken the Astros closer – and converted 29 of 33 saves in 2004, 42 of 46 in 2005, 32 of 38 in 2006 and just 19 of 27 in 2007. On the surface it looks like Lidge slipped in 2007, but his FIP ERA was right near what it was in 2006: 3.73 to 3.70. I love that Lidge gets a lot of strikeouts: 16.5 K/9 in 2004 (157 strikeouts in 94 & 2/3 innings!), 13.6 in 2005, and 11.9 in 2006 & 2007. He’s a strikeout machine like Wagner was, not a finesse-oriented closer like Tom Gordon. Just what this team needs. The only big minus I have about Lidge is that he gives up a lot of walks: 4.1 BB/9 the last two seasons.
Generally, I give the trade a qualified thumbs up. I think it will benefit the Phillies in the short-term, but I fear that trading Costanzo might come back to haunt the Phillies.
Let’s move onto the Phillies other needs … The market for bats at third is going to be pretty thin this season. You’re choices are going to be A-Rod, Mike Lowell, and … That’s about it. A-Rod’s $30 million prices him out of the Phillies budget, so Mike Lowell is pretty much it for the Phillies. Expect to see Lowell pursed by the Yankees pretty aggressively and for the Red Sox to spend money to keep him out of the Bronx.
The Phillies prospects for obtaining Lowell’s services are pretty bleak, in my opinion.
So the Phillies will likely turn to another trade. Much talk has been made of the Phillies dealing for the Rockies Garrett Atkins, because the Rockies have a very talented prospect poised to play third base, but I am skeptical that the Rockies would break-up any part of their formidable roster after their astonishing run to the World Series. No, expect the Rockies to keep Atkins or demand a King’s Ransom for his services.
I’ve said this in the past, but a key factor in whether or not a deal gets done is whether or not teams have done business in the past. The White Sox and Phillies have had numerous deals with one another since Pat Gillick took over the reins as Phillies GM: Jim Thome-for-Aaron Rowand, Gio Gonzalez/Gavin Floyd-for-Freddy Garcia, Tadahito Iguchi-for-Mike Dubee, etc. There has been a lot of traffic between the South Side of Chicago and Philly now for the last few months, so it is reasonable to assume that it will continue.
The Phillies have twin concerns: pitching and a bat at third base. Expect the team to attempt to pull-off a deal where they’ll ship some minor-league players to Chicago in exchange for Joe Crede and Jon Garland.
Crede had a terrible season in 2007 (.258 OBP, 4 Home Runs and 22 RBI in just 47 Games), but he’s a powerful bat (30 Home Runs, 31 Doubles, 94 RBI, and .223 ISO in 2006) who would be a definite upgrade over Wes Helms (5 Home Runs, 39 RBI, .297 OBP in 112 Games). Garland, a Jon Lieber-type pitcher who doesn’t surrender many walks or home runs (2.46 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9), would fit in well with the Phillies rotation and would be a good arm to round out the Phillies rotation in 2008 (Hamels, Moyer, Eaton, Myers and Garland), assuming that Brett Myers returns to the rotation.
What could the Phillies offer from their meager farm system? Greg Golson, currently playing Double-A ball with Mike Costanzo’s old team in Reading, is a position player with enough skills to entice teams. Jeremy Slayden, a slow-footed slugger from Advanced Single-A Clearwater, is a talented player who has limited prospects of playing with the newly speedy Phillies. Slayden would fit right in the American League. The White Sox seem intent on gobbling up Phillies pitching, so why not package J.D. Durbin or J.A. Happ or Kyle Drabek as part of the deal? Or Kyle Kendrick, now that the Phillies can return Myers to the rotation. He's a proven starter the Phillies can shop. The Phillies could probably part with three or four of these players and easily continue to nurture talent in the minors. Crede and Garland would be key parts to the Phillies 2008 season, while Durbin, Kendrick, et al, would go a long way towards helping the White Sox rebuilding program.
Forget free agency or a trade with the Twins for Johan Santana, this is the deal that the Phillies are going to make this off-season and it is the only one that makes sense. Moving along …
It’s almost time for award season. AL and NL Rookie of the Year on Monday, Managers of the Year next Wednesday, the AL Cy Young on Tuesday, the NL Cy Young next Thursday, then the AL MVP on Monday the 19th and the NL MVP on the 20th. I’ll predict the awards on Monday. So far baseball has handed out some awards: the Gold Gloves were awarded the other day and I was pleasantly surprised.
Two Phillies won awards: Jimmy Rollins and Aaron Rowand. I hate raining on the parade of a Phillie, but how in the world did Aaron Rowand win this award? This has to be a reward for meritorious play in 2005 with the White Sox, because Rowand is terrible these days. According to The Hardball Times Relative Zone Rating (RZR), Rowand was sixth of seven NL centerfielders in 2007 in RZR and ninth of eleven in 2006. Shane Victorino easily bested Rowand in centerfield in 2006, turning in better RZR numbers, committing fewer errors and getting more assists per inning played. In 2007, Rowand played nearly all of the Phillies defensive innings, but there were a multitude of players who turned in better performances. File this one under: “Huh?”
Jimmy Rollins got the Gold Glove for short, which again, I am skeptical about. Rollins finished ninth of fourteen N.L. shortstops in RZR. J.Roll displayed some nice range, with 65 plays on balls hit outside of his zone, but the Pirates Jack Wilson had 78 in 300 fewer innings of work. To J.Roll’s credit he was third in Fielding Percentage and second in double plays started, but I am not sure that he really was the best defensive shortstop in the N.L.
To my pleasant surprise baseball chose not to award Derek Jeter with a Gold Glove for the first time in recent memory. The decision to award Kevin “The Greek God of Walks” Youkilis the Gold Glove for first base was astonishing: Youkilis, a DH-type, led the AL in RZR at first base. Alright, being the best defensive first baseman isn’t much to boast about, but it is something and it strikes me that the pundits got it exactly right. Well done.
I’ll complete my current projects soon enough. Keep reading…
Labels: Base-Stealing, Bourn, Bullpen, Geary, Gordon, Minors, Off-Season, Speed, Third Base, Wagner
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
The 2007 Farm Report: Part I (GCL, Williamsport & Lakewood)
I devoted a little time this season to discussing the progress of minor leaguers in the Phillies system because I hadn’t previously done so and thus the meteoric rise of players like Michael Bourn, Cole Hamels and Ryan Howard caught me by surprise. Had I scoped out their minor league stats and paid attention to them there, I would have had more to say when they made their debuts with the Phillies.
This season has to be rated as something of a disappointment for the Phillies, when looking at their minor league teams. In 2006 there was a lot of reason to be cheery about the Phillies minor league prospects. The 2006 Lakewood Blue Claws, the Phillies Class-A affiliate in the South Atlantic League (SAL), won the 2006 SAL title. Three of the Phillies six minor league teams led their league in ERA in 2006: Lakewood, the Short-Season Single-A Batavia Muckdogs, and the Triple-A Scranton Red Barons. The 2007 Phillies farm teams weren’t so good. The Advanced Single-A Clearwater Threshers and Blue Claws posted winning records, but the other four teams did not. Ominously, the Phillies new Triple-A team, the Ottawa Lynx, in particular looked awful, going 55-88 and falling 29 games behind the Red Barons, now the Yankees Triple-A affiliate.
Here are the high-lights, but mostly low-lights, from the Phillies three low minor league teams:
Gulf Coast League Phillies – The GCL Phillies season kicked off right after the 2007 MLB Draft when the Phillies assigned their draft picks to either Rookie League or Short-Season Class-A ball. Primarily high schoolers were assigned to the GCL Phillies squad, who proceeded to post a 28-32 record in the GCL North, finishing fourteen and a half games behind the GCL Yankees, who at 42-17 had the best record in the GCL.
The 2007 GCL Phillies were nothing spectacular, finishing thirteenth of sixteen teams in terms of runs scored per game (4.15 R/G vs. the GCL average of 4.62), and a respectable eighth in terms of runs allowed per game (4.47 R/G). Looking over the numbers, it appears that the GCL Phillies pitching was pretty lousy, but they were saved by decent fielding. The GCL Phillies were slightly better than the league average in Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER), .643 vs. .639, and they committed 92 errors. (The GCL Reds led the GCL with 127.)
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
DER – Defense Efficiency Ratio: (Batters Faced – (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) / (Batters Faced – (Home Runs, Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) How often fielders convert balls put into play into outs.
DER – Defense Efficiency Ratio: (Batters Faced – (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) / (Batters Faced – (Home Runs, Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) How often fielders convert balls put into play into outs.
Fielding Percentage: (Putouts + Assists) / (Putouts + Assists + Errors). How often the player successfully handled the ball.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate. Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF).
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate. Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF).
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
Travis Mattair and Travis D’Arnaud, the Phillies supplemental first-round and second-round picks respectively, didn’t play particularly well …
Mattair, a graduate of Southridge High School in Kennwick, Washington, and the Phillies third pick and 83rd overall, hit .235 / .297 / .340 with a .637 OPS and 3.29 RC/G. Mattair, a third baseman who also DH’d for the GCL Phillies, posted disappointing numbers. His OPS was under the league average (.691) and the team average (.678). Mattair struck out five times as often as he walked: 58 to 12, or 4.83 K/BB ratio.
D’Arnaud, the Phillies second pick and the 37th overall, hit even worse: .241 / .278 / .348, with a 2.69 RC/G and .626 OPS. Like Mattair, D’Arnaud was pretty shaky making contact on the field of play: 23 K’s vs. 4 BB’s, or 5.75 K/BB ratio. Both of these guys will have to step things up if they want to make the majors.
The GCL Phillies best players were Arlon Quioz, the GCL Phillies centerfielder who hit .272 / .378 / .364 and stole 20 of 25 bases with the GCL Phillies, and Karl Bolt, an Air Force Academy graduate who hit .256 / .336 / .459, with an impressive .795 OPS and 5.30 RC/G. Quiroz led the GCL Phillies with a 5.62 RC/G, by the way. I am very impressed by Bolt, who struck out just 34 times in 233 plate appearances. Bolt displayed real power at the plate, hitting eight home runs. Playing in large stadiums in the damp summer Florida air, GCL players don’t typically hit for power, but Bolt did:
ISO
Karl Bolt: .203
GCL Phillies: .117
GCL Avg.: .107
Of the GCL Phillies pitching, the less said the better. Miguel Matos was the best of a bad bunch, going 6-3 with a 3.36 ERA. Nobody stands out from the Phillies as being particularly talented here. It is worth noting that it appears that the Phillies invested heavily in position players and college pitchers, so the poor quality of the Phillies GCL pitching isn’t really a cause for worry. The Phillies aren’t counting on these guys to fill out the rotation in 2012.
Moving along to beautiful Williamsport … the 2007 Williamsport Crosscutters, the Phillies new
Short-Season Single-A affiliate (replacing the Batavia Muckdogs), finished the season at 34-42, finishing thirteen games behind the Auburn Doubledays, the Toronto Blue Jays team. Despite the disappointing finish, the Crosscutters actually have quite a bit of talent on their roster. Of the Phillies first eleven picks in the 2007 Draft that signed with the team, nine were college players. Mattair and D’Arnaud were the sole high schoolers the Phillies picked before round eleven. This is where the bulk of the Phillies 2007 Draft cut their teeth.
Offensively, the Crosscutters were a disappointment, scoring just 4.07 R/G, twelfth of fourteen teams and well off the league average of 4.52. Defensively, they were much better, allowing just 4.28 R/G, fifth-best in the New York – Penn League (NYPL). The Crosscutters team ERA was a very good 3.57 ERA, fifth in the NYPL and better than the league average of 3.89, and they did better than the league averages in home runs allowed, walks allowed and strikeouts:
NYPL / Williamsport
HR/9: 0.52 / 0.41
BB/9: 3.52 / 3.04
K/9: 7.86 / 7.94
I ran the numbers on Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and determined that the Crosscutters FIP was 3.55 in 2007, 0.02 better than their ERA. This was a team with a lot of pitching talent. We begin with Joe Savery, the Phillies first-round pick … nineteenth overall … out of Rice University, pitched well enough, going 2-3 with a 2.77 ERA in just seven starts. Savery will obviously be in the uniform of the Lakewood Blue Claws in 2008 and has a very bright future ahead of him, although it is difficult to evaluate him on just twenty-six innings of work in the NYPL.
Clearly, the Phillies best pitcher was Drew Naylor, the twenty-one year-old right-hander who led the NYPL in strikeouts with 97 on his way to an 8-6 record with a 3.29 ERA. In 93 innings of work Naylor allowed just three home runs, or 0.29 HR/9 and had a 3.46 K/BB ratio. His FIP reveals just how well he pitched: he out-pitched his “real” ERA by nearly a third of a run, 2.94 FIP.
Close behind Naylor were the Crosscutters other main starters, Tyson Brummett and Chance Chapman. Brummett, the Phillies seventh round pick out of UCLA (233rd overall), and Chapman, the Phillies eighth round pick (263rd overall), were talented pitchers taken out of UCLA and Oral Roberts respectively. Brummett went 5-5 with a 3.39 ERA while Chapman went 5-3 with a 2.08 ERA. Their FIP ERAs are much closer. Here are the Crosscutters four main starters FIP ERAs:
Starters FIP:
Chapman: 2.92
Naylor: 2.94
Brummett: 3.16
Savery: 3.51
Moving on to the Phillies position players … Check out the Phillies top performers in terms of Runs Created per 27 Outs:
RC/G:
Mach: 5.73
Spencer: 5.38
Brown: 5.37
Rizzotti: 5.11
Mitchell: 4.00
Durant: 3.79
Taylor: 3.40
Myers: 2.70
We’ll start with Mach. Tyler Mach was the Crosscutters best position player in a lot of respects. Taken in the fourth round, 143rd overall, out of Oklahoma State, Mach is going to be an extremely talented member of the Phillies one day. Mach hit five home runs and had 38 RBIs. He displayed impressive bat control, notching just 33 strikeouts against 21 walks.
After Mach the Phillies had a number of other impressive performers:
OPS:
Tyler Mach: .803
Matthew Spencer: .789
Dominic Brown: .756
Matthew Rizzotti: .741
Derek Mitchell: .701
Mike Durant: .666
Michael Taylor: .665
D’Arby Myers: .582
Team: .662
NYPL: .697
Spencer, Mach, Taylor and Rizzotti were taken in sequence in the third, fourth, fifth and sixth rounds. Aside from Taylor, who struggled a little, each one played quite well and made a compelling case to advance on to play with the Lakewood Blue Claws in 2008.
Rizzotti, in particular, is an intriguing player, standing at six-foot-five inches, weighing in at 235 pounds, and having graduated from that baseball hotbed, Manhattan College, a three-time Mid-Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) First-Team selection and the 2005 MAAC Rookie and Player of the Year. Though he hit just two home runs and had 27 RBIs, he seems to be extremely talented and could turn into a tremendous player. Though he struck out 63 times with the Crosscutters, he did manage to draw thirty walks. He seems like the prototypical slugger-with-a-good-eye. How did Billy Beane and the Oakland A’s not snatch him up?
Despite their sub-.500 record, the 2007 Crosscutters were loaded with talent and played quite well.
Moving along, we journey from north-central Pennsylvania to the Jersey Shore, where the 2007 Lakewood Blue Claws play. After
the 2006 season, where the Blue Claws went 84-55 (.604) and won the SAL title 3-1 over the Augusta Green Jackets, there was bound to be a let-down. With last year’s trio of Matthew Maloney, Josh Outman and Carlos Carrasco having moved on to Clearwater and Reading, the Blue Claws pitching staff was all-new in 2007.
Still, the 2007 Blue Claws were an extremely talented team on the mound, finishing fourth of sixteen teams in team ERA at 3.75. By far the Phillies best pitcher was the unfortunately named Antonio Bastardo, who was a blistering 9-0 with a 1.87 ERA in just fifteen starts as a Blue Claw. Kyle Drabek, the Phillies first selection in the 2006 Draft, pitched alright as a Blue Claw, going 5-1 with a 4.33 ERA. Drabek got a decent number of strikeouts (7.66 K/9), but allowed a lot of walks (3.83 BB/9) and a large number of home runs (1.50 HR/9) before injuring his arm. Drabek might still develop into a stellar pitcher, but these are issues he needs to sort out.
The rest of the Blue Claws rotation is a far cry from the glory days of 2006. Carlos Monasteros (11-11, 4.62 ERA), Darren Byrd (9-11, 4.04 ERA) and Edgar Garcia (4-9, 4.12 ERA) are a far-cry from the stellar performance Matt Maloney, Josh Outman and Carlos Carrasco turned in last season.
In terms of position players, the Blue Claws have a number of talents on the roster. Foremost amongst them is Adrian Cardenas, the Phillies supplemental first-round pick in the 2007 Draft, who has excelled and might be the best position-player prospect in the Phillies system right now. Cardenas had a .384 OBP with thirteen steals in sixteen attempts in Rookie League ball in 2006 and built on that with a .354 OBP and nineteen steals in twenty-six tries in 2007 with the Blue Claws. There are a lot of things to like about Cardenas: he’s got speed (thirty doubles, nineteen steals) and power (1.048 OPS+) and he reminds me a lot of Chase Utley. He even plays the same position as Utley: second base. Cardenas switched after playing shortstop, his high school position, in the Gulf Coast League. Cardenas is so athletic he could play any position aside from pitcher or catcher. I see him manning left field for the Phillies in 2009 or 2010.
Quintin Berry also turned in an impressive performance in 2007: .395 OBP, 55 steals in 73 tries. Berry has a lot of speed and has really shown a lot of control with his bat at the plate. His nearly .400 OBP is a product of a good eye at the plate: 61 walks to 85 strikeouts. Berry’s walks per plate appearance (BB/PA) is .104, an impressive total (i.e., he drew a walk every tenth time he got to the plate). Berry’s Runs Created per 27 Outs (5.93) is better than Cardenas’ (4.96). Berry and Cardenas are rays of hope for the future in the Phillies system.
GCL Phillies: .117
GCL Avg.: .107
Of the GCL Phillies pitching, the less said the better. Miguel Matos was the best of a bad bunch, going 6-3 with a 3.36 ERA. Nobody stands out from the Phillies as being particularly talented here. It is worth noting that it appears that the Phillies invested heavily in position players and college pitchers, so the poor quality of the Phillies GCL pitching isn’t really a cause for worry. The Phillies aren’t counting on these guys to fill out the rotation in 2012.
Moving along to beautiful Williamsport … the 2007 Williamsport Crosscutters, the Phillies new
Short-Season Single-A affiliate (replacing the Batavia Muckdogs), finished the season at 34-42, finishing thirteen games behind the Auburn Doubledays, the Toronto Blue Jays team. Despite the disappointing finish, the Crosscutters actually have quite a bit of talent on their roster. Of the Phillies first eleven picks in the 2007 Draft that signed with the team, nine were college players. Mattair and D’Arnaud were the sole high schoolers the Phillies picked before round eleven. This is where the bulk of the Phillies 2007 Draft cut their teeth.Offensively, the Crosscutters were a disappointment, scoring just 4.07 R/G, twelfth of fourteen teams and well off the league average of 4.52. Defensively, they were much better, allowing just 4.28 R/G, fifth-best in the New York – Penn League (NYPL). The Crosscutters team ERA was a very good 3.57 ERA, fifth in the NYPL and better than the league average of 3.89, and they did better than the league averages in home runs allowed, walks allowed and strikeouts:
NYPL / Williamsport
HR/9: 0.52 / 0.41
BB/9: 3.52 / 3.04
K/9: 7.86 / 7.94
I ran the numbers on Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and determined that the Crosscutters FIP was 3.55 in 2007, 0.02 better than their ERA. This was a team with a lot of pitching talent. We begin with Joe Savery, the Phillies first-round pick … nineteenth overall … out of Rice University, pitched well enough, going 2-3 with a 2.77 ERA in just seven starts. Savery will obviously be in the uniform of the Lakewood Blue Claws in 2008 and has a very bright future ahead of him, although it is difficult to evaluate him on just twenty-six innings of work in the NYPL.
Clearly, the Phillies best pitcher was Drew Naylor, the twenty-one year-old right-hander who led the NYPL in strikeouts with 97 on his way to an 8-6 record with a 3.29 ERA. In 93 innings of work Naylor allowed just three home runs, or 0.29 HR/9 and had a 3.46 K/BB ratio. His FIP reveals just how well he pitched: he out-pitched his “real” ERA by nearly a third of a run, 2.94 FIP.
Close behind Naylor were the Crosscutters other main starters, Tyson Brummett and Chance Chapman. Brummett, the Phillies seventh round pick out of UCLA (233rd overall), and Chapman, the Phillies eighth round pick (263rd overall), were talented pitchers taken out of UCLA and Oral Roberts respectively. Brummett went 5-5 with a 3.39 ERA while Chapman went 5-3 with a 2.08 ERA. Their FIP ERAs are much closer. Here are the Crosscutters four main starters FIP ERAs:
Starters FIP:
Chapman: 2.92
Naylor: 2.94
Brummett: 3.16
Savery: 3.51
Moving on to the Phillies position players … Check out the Phillies top performers in terms of Runs Created per 27 Outs:
RC/G:
Mach: 5.73
Spencer: 5.38
Brown: 5.37
Rizzotti: 5.11
Mitchell: 4.00
Durant: 3.79
Taylor: 3.40
Myers: 2.70
We’ll start with Mach. Tyler Mach was the Crosscutters best position player in a lot of respects. Taken in the fourth round, 143rd overall, out of Oklahoma State, Mach is going to be an extremely talented member of the Phillies one day. Mach hit five home runs and had 38 RBIs. He displayed impressive bat control, notching just 33 strikeouts against 21 walks.
After Mach the Phillies had a number of other impressive performers:
OPS:
Tyler Mach: .803
Matthew Spencer: .789
Dominic Brown: .756
Matthew Rizzotti: .741
Derek Mitchell: .701
Mike Durant: .666
Michael Taylor: .665
D’Arby Myers: .582
Team: .662
NYPL: .697
Spencer, Mach, Taylor and Rizzotti were taken in sequence in the third, fourth, fifth and sixth rounds. Aside from Taylor, who struggled a little, each one played quite well and made a compelling case to advance on to play with the Lakewood Blue Claws in 2008.
Rizzotti, in particular, is an intriguing player, standing at six-foot-five inches, weighing in at 235 pounds, and having graduated from that baseball hotbed, Manhattan College, a three-time Mid-Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) First-Team selection and the 2005 MAAC Rookie and Player of the Year. Though he hit just two home runs and had 27 RBIs, he seems to be extremely talented and could turn into a tremendous player. Though he struck out 63 times with the Crosscutters, he did manage to draw thirty walks. He seems like the prototypical slugger-with-a-good-eye. How did Billy Beane and the Oakland A’s not snatch him up?
Despite their sub-.500 record, the 2007 Crosscutters were loaded with talent and played quite well.
Moving along, we journey from north-central Pennsylvania to the Jersey Shore, where the 2007 Lakewood Blue Claws play. After
the 2006 season, where the Blue Claws went 84-55 (.604) and won the SAL title 3-1 over the Augusta Green Jackets, there was bound to be a let-down. With last year’s trio of Matthew Maloney, Josh Outman and Carlos Carrasco having moved on to Clearwater and Reading, the Blue Claws pitching staff was all-new in 2007.Still, the 2007 Blue Claws were an extremely talented team on the mound, finishing fourth of sixteen teams in team ERA at 3.75. By far the Phillies best pitcher was the unfortunately named Antonio Bastardo, who was a blistering 9-0 with a 1.87 ERA in just fifteen starts as a Blue Claw. Kyle Drabek, the Phillies first selection in the 2006 Draft, pitched alright as a Blue Claw, going 5-1 with a 4.33 ERA. Drabek got a decent number of strikeouts (7.66 K/9), but allowed a lot of walks (3.83 BB/9) and a large number of home runs (1.50 HR/9) before injuring his arm. Drabek might still develop into a stellar pitcher, but these are issues he needs to sort out.
The rest of the Blue Claws rotation is a far cry from the glory days of 2006. Carlos Monasteros (11-11, 4.62 ERA), Darren Byrd (9-11, 4.04 ERA) and Edgar Garcia (4-9, 4.12 ERA) are a far-cry from the stellar performance Matt Maloney, Josh Outman and Carlos Carrasco turned in last season.
In terms of position players, the Blue Claws have a number of talents on the roster. Foremost amongst them is Adrian Cardenas, the Phillies supplemental first-round pick in the 2007 Draft, who has excelled and might be the best position-player prospect in the Phillies system right now. Cardenas had a .384 OBP with thirteen steals in sixteen attempts in Rookie League ball in 2006 and built on that with a .354 OBP and nineteen steals in twenty-six tries in 2007 with the Blue Claws. There are a lot of things to like about Cardenas: he’s got speed (thirty doubles, nineteen steals) and power (1.048 OPS+) and he reminds me a lot of Chase Utley. He even plays the same position as Utley: second base. Cardenas switched after playing shortstop, his high school position, in the Gulf Coast League. Cardenas is so athletic he could play any position aside from pitcher or catcher. I see him manning left field for the Phillies in 2009 or 2010.
Quintin Berry also turned in an impressive performance in 2007: .395 OBP, 55 steals in 73 tries. Berry has a lot of speed and has really shown a lot of control with his bat at the plate. His nearly .400 OBP is a product of a good eye at the plate: 61 walks to 85 strikeouts. Berry’s walks per plate appearance (BB/PA) is .104, an impressive total (i.e., he drew a walk every tenth time he got to the plate). Berry’s Runs Created per 27 Outs (5.93) is better than Cardenas’ (4.96). Berry and Cardenas are rays of hope for the future in the Phillies system.
All in all, the low minor league teams had so-so seasons. Their high minor league counterparts weren't as good. We'll talk a little about that on Friday.
Labels: Cardenas, Drabek, Minors
