A CITIZEN'S BLOG

The 2008 MLB Draft began yesterday afternoon with the Tampa Bay Rays taking shortstop Tim Beckham with the #1 Overall Pick, perhaps the last time the Rays will be in that position for a long time. The Phillies were busy with nine picks in the first six rounds. Here are a few thoughts:

In a draft that was deep on corner infielders and catcher prospects, as well as college players, the Phillies weren't afraid to be different. Their first four picks and six of their first seven, were high school players. The Phillies first three picks were high school players projected as outfielders. The Phillies chose:

Round:
1. Anthony Hewitt (SS/OF) - Salisbury, High School
1A. Zach Collier (OF) - Chino Hills High School
2. Anthony Grose (OF) - Bellflower High School
2. Jason Knapp (RHP) - North Hunterdon High School
3. Vance Worley (RHP) - Long Beach State College
3A. Jonathan Pettibone (RHP) - Esperanza High School
4. Trevor May (RHP) - Kelso High School
5. Jeremy Hamilton (1B) - Wright State
6. Colby Shreve (RHP) - Southern Nevada Community College

Obviously your attention is drawn to Hewitt and Collier, a pair of talented outfielders with a lot of raw tools who are anywhere from 4-6 years of development away from the major leagues. I wouldn't expect to see them crack the Phillies lineup until 2013 or so at the earliest. But both players are interesting picks in that they break with the Phillies recent focus on pitching and they also buck the trend in baseball towards drafting MLB-ready college kids who could crack lineups by 2010. The Phillies took two guys with a lot of raw talent who could anchor the Phillies outfield in the future. Hewitt looks like a future compliment to Ryan Howard and Chase Utley in the lineup as a #5 hitter, while Collier looks like a future #2 hitter who has been compared with the Angels Garrett Anderson.

It is interesting to me that the Phillies were able to snare the two guys they really wanted, Hewitt and Collier, after it looked like the team might have to choose between them. Keith Law of ESPN thought that Collier was going to slide to the Minnesota Twins at #27, but then Collier slid out of the first round and fell to them in the supplemental first round. The focus, especially from small market teams, on college-ish MLB-ready talent really might pay dividends as the Phillies secured a pair of first-round guys who probably would have gone much higher in the draft in previous years.

According to Baseball America, second-round pick Jason Knapp had an outstanding outwork with the team and the Phillies considered taking him in the Supplemental First Round at #34, but he fell to them in the second round at #71. What impresses me about Knapp is his size: six-foot-five, 215 lbs, which hopefully means that his fastball will come screaming down on hitters like Randy Johnson. Knapp and fellow-second rounder Anthony Grose are raw talents like Collier and Hewitt, which means that the Phillies are going to have a lot of work ahead of them in terms of talent development, but nearly all of these players are guys rated by the talent experts as having big upsides. Grose looks like a lead-off guy with a lot of speed and terrific defensive abilities. Some have compared him to the Dodgers Juan Pierre.

Starting with Knapp, the Phillies took four pitchers with their next five picks. The one who really interests me is May, a Washington State High Schooler who apparently has a fastball clocked in the high-90s and a devastating knuckle-curveball. Can the Phillies keep him from attending Washington State University?

-Generally I thought this was a very good draft for the Phillies. If their first four picks turn out well, the farm system could be dramatically restocked. This is a risky draft which could lay the foundations for great things in 2013-2014, or it could be a disaster and a wasted opportunity. We'll see.

Look for the Phillies to stock up on some mid-level pitchers today and a few project-type players. I think you'll see the Phillies take some catchers and middle infielders in the mid-level rounds today ....

-I thought ESPN's coverage of the Draft was pretty good but there was too much filler at the end and the failure to cover beyond the first round and supplemental first round left an incomplete picture to the viewer. In the future I'd like to see ESPN try and expand their coverage, perhaps starting the first round earlier in the day than two o'clock and following into the second and third rounds.

ESPN's panel was good - any panel featuring Peter Gammons is going to be good - but I would have liked to have seen more of Baseball America's Jim Callis or ESPN's Keith Law. Chris Singleton did a nice job as the token player giving the draftee's perspective on the system amidst the pundits, but he seemed like he had big stretches of time where he had nothing to say. One of the reasons why the NFL Draft does so well is because Mel Kiper, Jr., is there on Draft Day to deliver the definitive word on who this guy from Central Appalachian State is. I would like to see Law, a knowledgeable and articulate presence, on the panel as the expert on all things talent.

-Ed Wade and the Astros earned scorn for taking catcher Jason Castro with the #10 pick. I hope Wade knows what he's doing.

-The Pirates decision to take Pedro Alvarez is a real watershed moment for the Pirates. Either the team has helped itself by laying the foundation for future success - Alvarez has been compared to Manny Ramirez and is the powerful RBI-machine that the Pirates badly need in the middle of their lineup - or they have just doomed themselves to disaster. A year removed from a draft that earned them scorn for ducking on taking a Scott Boras client because of signability issues, they stepped up to the plate and took Alvarez, a major talent who also has Boras negotiating on his behalf. Also given that Pirates GM Neal Huntington is Boras former nemesis ... well, this is a big moment for the Pirates. They need to sign Alvarez and they have little leverage in these negotiations. They are a small-market team that needs to develop talent quickly. This will be interesting ...

Oh yeah, the Phillies played some baseball yesterday, wrapping up a four-game series with the Reds with their third win, a 5-0 shutout by Cole Hamels. The big moment in the game was Manager Charlie Manuel's decision to bench 2007 N.L. MVP Jimmy Rollins for failing to run out a pop fly that turned into a single after a silly little-league-type error by the Reds. It was a gutsy decision which could have blown up on everyone had Rollins reacted badly. Instead, the message was received by Rollins and he took it with a lot of dignity. Manuel's hold on the clubhouse was secure and Rollins displayed a lot of humility and maturity in accepting responsibility and putting team harmony first. This is the kind of moment that separates championship teams from also-rans.

The Phillies went 8-2 on their homestand and sit two and a half games in first heading into a road trip with the Atlanta Braves. More later on today ...

Labels: Braves, Managing, MLB Draft, Rollins, State of the Phillies

The Draft is just over two hours away. I'm 90% convinced that the Phillies will take High School shortstop Anthony Hewitt at #24. He's an exceptional talent and benefit from grooming within the Phillies system. Adrian Cardenas, another talented high schooler in need of grooming, is doing quite well at Clearwater with the Advanced Single-A Threshers. Imagine a future Phillies infield filled with Hewitt, Cardenas, Utley and Ryan Howard ...

Baseball Prospectus projects that the Phillies will pass on Hewitt and take Zach Collier, an outfielder from Chino Hills High School in California. Others say the Phillies will go with Andrew Cashner, a six foot six relief ace from Texas Christian who almost certainly would have a shorter path to the major leagues than Hewitt or Collier. I'm banking on the Phillies being more interested in developing a player in the long-term. That's why I am going with Hewitt, whom is the person Baseball America says is going at #24.

I really liked this article from SI's Tom Verducci about why the MLB Draft is so important now that we live in the post-steroids era.

Meanwhile ... Don't be fooled by Brett Myers performance last evening. Yes, he surrendered just one hit and one run in seven and one-third of an inning. Yes, he struck eight Reds out. He also surrendered six walks. Volquez, in contrast, tossed a third of an inning less than Myers and got the same number of strikeouts. He allowed just two hits and walked just two Phillies. Even when Myers held onto the no-hitter it struck me that Volquez was still out-pitching him.

Losing John Smoltz has to be a bitter blow to the Atlanta Braves, weakening their rotation and costing them a key veteran in their search to return to the playoffs for the first time since '05. I think Smoltz will return in '09, but it will be his final season. This loss will really hurt though. I'm not sure that the Braves will survive and catch up to the Mets and Phillies.

Speaking of the Braves, anyone notice the extreme home/road split that the Braves have? The Braves are 24-8 at home and 7-21 on the road. Compare the winning percentages:

N.L. East: (Home Pct / Road Pct / Diff.)
Atlanta: .750 / .250 / +.500
New York: .607 / .433 / +.174
Phillies: .606 / .536 / +.070
Marlins: .600 / .500 / +.100
Nats: .448 / .366 / +.082

The only team that comes as close to matching the Braves variance is the Reds, whose .655 home winning percentage is .333 higher than their .322 road winning percentage (although last night's game helped matters). If the Braves were homebodies, they'd be unbeatable.

I'll comment on the Draft later.

Labels: Braves, Cardenas, Marlins, Mets, MLB Draft, Nationals

Sorry for the late afternoon post, but I've been busy. Better late than never, right? Alright, five things to keep in mind about the Braves & Phillies series tonight ...

1. The Braves are a lot better than their 19-18 record suggests. I like to follow teams Pythagorean Win-Loss records and compare them to their 'real' records to predict which teams are lucky and due for a fall or resurgence. Looking at records so far this season I'm seeing the Braves as a team that is poised to make a resurgence. As of this morning, this is where the N.L. East standings sit:

1. Florida: 23-15
2. Philadelphia: 21-18
3. New York: 19-17
4. Atlanta: 19-18
5. Washington: 16-23

Here are the Pythagorean Win-Loss records:

1. Atlanta: 23-14
2. Philadelphia: 21-18
3. Florida: 20-18
4. New York: 19-17
5. Washington: 16-23

The Mets, Phillies and Nationals are all hitting their pythagorean win-loss records right on the mark, but the Marlins are over-performing by three games and the Braves are under-performing by four. Why is that? Well, the Braves have a terrible record in close (i.e., games decided by two runs or less) games at 4-10. When they start getting those break landing their way, I think that the Braves will start winning and will validate my prediction that they'll win the N.L. East in 2008.

2. The Braves have a darn good pitching staff. Of the Phillies five starters, four boast ERAs of 4.93 or above:

Cole Hamels: 3.36
Kyle Kendrick: 4.93
Jamie Moyer: 5.02
Brett Myers: 5.33
Adam Eaton: 5.40

lower than 3.00. Compare that to the Braves starters: Tim Hudson (2.54) and John Smoltz (2.00) have ERAsJair Jurrgens, who tossed just thirty innings in relief for the Tigers last season, is 4-3 with a 3.10 ERA. Braves pitchers rank fourth in the N.L. in strikeouts per nine innings (7.26), while the Phillies rank twelfth (6.09). The Braves also rank first (or last, depending on how you view it ... let's just say "best") in OPS against at .664.

Bizarrely, Phillies starters have turned in slightly more (19 to 18) Quality Starts (a start where a pitcher tossed six or more innings and surrenders three or fewer runs) than the Braves. Go figure.

3. The Braves field well. Their fielding percentage is just seventh in the N.L. to the Phillies fourteenth, but they were also second in Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER), meaning that Braves fielders converted balls put into play into outs 71.8% of the time, second to just the Cubs at 72%.

4. The Braves can hit. They have a better OPS than the Phillies (.789 to .755), a slightly better batting average with runners in scoring position (.250 to .249 BA/RISP), and have scored more runs per game (4.89 to 4.74).

5. The Braves are going to sweep this series. Sorry, Phillies fans, but the Braves are a sleeping giant.

Labels: Batting, Braves, Eaton, Fielding, Hamels, Kenderick, Moyer, Myers, Pitching

First of all, let me lead off by noting that I haven't been posting for a week. I got kind of burned out from thinking about the Phillies last week and I needed a quick break. This week ahead prepare for a solid, five-post week on the Phillies. Sometimes I just need a quick break to get re-inspired.

Well, the Phillies managed to escape the month of April with a winning record for the first time since they went 16-12 in April, 2003. Their 15-13 record won't make Mets and Braves fans weep, but it is - combined with yesterday's 3-2 win over the Padres - enough to give the Phillies sole possession for first place in the N.L. East this morning, a half-game better than the Mets and Florida Marlins. The Braves sit three back at 12-15.

Last April the Phillies really survived a major crisis when they got off to the 4-11 start and saw the team come close to imploding: they lost their closer, suffered catastrophic injuries and their manager had a major meltdown. This April has been another crisis averted: Brad Lidge went down before the season started, the Phillies saw the 2007 N.L. MVP miss nearly the entire month with injuries, and starting center fielder Shane Victorino missed time too. Still, the team has survived and found itself sitting in first place, displaying real grit and determination.

What of the mighty Mets? Well, Jose Reyes is struggling badly with a .307 OBP and three caught stealings in nine tries. Carlos Delgado has an OPS of .620. On the pitching side, while Johan Santana has been as good as advertised - although his Fielding Independent ERA is 4.00, partly a product of the surprisingly high number of home runs he's allowed this season - the rest of the Mets pitchers are struggling badly. Oliver Perez and John Maine have allowed nearly as many walks as strikeouts and Pedro has made just one start. Looks like the Phillies are still the team to beat.

Keep an eye on the Braves, despite their sub-.500 record. John Smoltz and Tom Glavine have ERAs below 3.00 (2.00 for Smoltz and 2.60 for Glavine) and Tim Hudson is pitching well. As soon as Chuck James (7.62 ERA) works out his issues and the Braves get a little more solid at the plate, they'll start winning and outdistance the Mets. The key, I think, for the Braves is Mark Teixeira. The Braves need him to step up his performance and get more extra-base hits. Once Teixeira begins to produce, the Braves will finally have an offense to match their pitching staff.

The return of Shane Victorino to the Phillies lineup is welcome. As a team the Phillies are really struggling to steal bases and hit triples. At the moment they've stolen just 12 bases in 17 tries and they've hit just three triples. Once J.Roll returns and Victorino gets his groove on, the Phillies will finally have the speed to challenge the opposition. They've already hit an astonishing 42 home runs, but they cannot continue to rely on the long ball exclusively to score runs. One of the keys to the Phillies success in 2007 was that they were ruthlessly efficient in stretching the defense with a lot of successful steals and triples.

Here is a scary thought, Mets and Braves fans: the Phillies success in hitting home runs is partly because Chase Utley (11) and Pat Burrell (8) are on a major tear. Ryan Howard has hit just 6 this season, a low total. Once Howard begins hitting home runs the Phillies could have three 40+ home run guys on their roster. Yikes.

Giants vs. Phillies. The Phillies continue the second half of their six game homestand against N.L. West teams with a three game series against the San Francisco Giants. This will be the first time the Phillies have faced off with former Phillie center fielder Aaron Rowand. The 13-16 Giants are playing well in Year One of A.B. (After Barry.) These are going to be some rough years for Giants fans. They have an old team built around the idea of making a last run on the World Series for Bonds and nearly zero talent in their farm system. Right now they are riding their pitching staff and they are lucky to have some real talent there. Sunday is going to feature a terrific pitching duel between Cole Hamels (3-3, 2.70 ERA) and Tim Lincecum (4-1, 1.73 ERA). Lincecum and Matt Cain (Brett Myers foe Saturday night) are very good hurlers and will help keep the Giants competitive while they rebuild.

Offensively the Giants have moved far, far away from Barryball. They've hit just 16 home runs, but they've stole 33 bases so far. Interestingly, their top base-stealer has just six, so they really run a balanced speed game. As for Rowand: he's hitting .326 but his OBP is only .366. He's also hit just 2 home runs and 14 RBI. His production is going to fall off as the season progresses and he gets less and less lucky in putting the ball into play. The Phillies may miss his intensity, but they won't miss his bat. At all.

Minors Update. The Lehigh Valley IronPigs, the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, is off to a 3-24 start - yes you read that right: three wins and twenty-four losses - in International League play. As a team the IronPigs are dead-last in the IL in OPS (at .573 they are over one hundred points worse than the next-worst team, the Columbus Clippers) and in ERA. Travis Blackley is 0-3 with a 6.64 ERA and Jason Durbin is 0-5 with a 9.61 ERA. The IronPigs big power slugger, Brennan King, is hitting .204 with just one home run and five RBIs.

The Phillies two hot prospects at Lehigh Valley, Jason Jamarillo and J.A. Happ, are on different tracks. J.A. Happ is 0-3, but has actually pitched well: he has an ERA of 3.51 and has struck out 37 hitters in 33 and one-thirds of an inning. Happ has largely been done in by the fact that the IronPigs are awful. Happ might still earn a call-up with the Phillies if Kendrick struggles.

The highly touted Jason Jamarillo has some issues: .193 Batting Average, 2 Home Runs, 3 RBI. I'd say that Chris Coste's job as the backup catcher is very safe.

Over in Berks County, the Reading Phillies are 13-12 and sit three games out of first place in the Eastern League's Southern Division. Outfielder Gregory Golson is off to a terrific start: .320 batting average, 6 doubles, 2 triples, 2 home runs and 15 RBI and eight steals in eleven tries in twenty-five games. Jeremy Slayden, the powerful outfielder who I think is vastly under-rated by scouts and pundits, is hitting .310 with three home runs, twenty RBI and seven doubles.

In Clearwater the Threshers are 9-17 and sit in the Florida State League's Western division's cellar. Prospects Adrian Cardenas and Joe Savery are doing well: Savery has a 2.92 ERA and Cardenas is hitting .347. Finally, over at the Jersey Shore, the Lakewood Blue Claws are 13-13.

Monday, more!

Labels: Braves, Bruntlett, Burrell, Hamels, Mets, Minors, Myers, Pitching, Rollins, Utley, Victorino

The conventional wisdom out there is that the Mets have basically guaranteed themselves a 2008 N.L. East division title with their acquisition of Johan Santana. Suddenly Santana turns to Mets mediocre rotation into one of the best pitching staffs in the National Leagie. I beg to differ. The Mets may have upgraded themselves considerably – and they now definitely have a leg up on the opposition – however, even with Santana, the Mets don’t have the best starting rotation in the N.L. East.

I’m going to use pitching projections from the 2008 Bill James Handbook here because James predictions are uncannily accurate and they make as good a starting reference point as anything …

Let’s start with the Mets …

Win – Loss Record / ERA / K/BB ratio
Johan Santana: 16-8 / 3.00 / 4.00
Pedro Martinez: 10-4 / 2.88 / 4.65
John Maine: 12-11 / 4.05 / 2.08
Oliver Perez: 9-12 / 4.69 / 2.34
Oliver Hernandez: 8-7 / 3.95 / 2.31

Now Pedro’s numbers are based on his throwing just 125 innings, so I guess this presumes that he might still have some nagging injuries. That’s a reasonable presumption. The teaming of Pedro and Santana really might be deadly, but the rest of the Mets rotation looks pretty spotty. Maine and Perez had great, but largely fluky seasons in 2007. The Mets will have a great 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, but that's it.

Let’s move onto the Phillies …

Cole Hamels: 15-7 / 3.33 / 3.75
Brett Myers: 6-5 (29 saves) / 4.17 / 2.51
Jamie Moyer: 11-10 / 4.31 / 2.09
Adam Eaton: 8-10 / 4.89 / 1.94
Kyle Kendrick: unk.

The projections for the Phillies are a little screwy because they have Myers as the Phillies closer and there is no data for Kendrick to gain an accurate idea about because he’s pitched just one season. My gut tells me that Myers would probably have an ERA closer to 4.00 and his win-loss would be close to Hamels 15-7 if they ran his numbers as a starter … Hamels numbers strongly suggest that he’ll turn in another strong season and might be a player in the Cy Young race if he tosses enough innings … Eaton will be better than he was in 2007, but only with Adam Eaton would a 4.89 ERA be considered an improvement (2007 ERA: 6.29).

Basically, the Phillies rotation will be solid, but not great, though if Hamels and Santana cancel each other out, then the Phillies might have a slight edge here if Pedro struggles.

Let's move on to the Braves.

John Smoltz: 17-7 / 3.22 / 4.06
Tim Hudson: 15-9 / 3.67 / 2.19
Chuck James: 12-8 / 3.86 / 2.38
Tom Glavine: 11-10 / 3.99 / 1.59
Buddy Carlyle: 7-6 / 4.11 / 2.97

If the 2008 Atlanta Braves rotation isn’t the best in the N.L. East, I’ll eat my hat. Say whatever you want about the Braves, but they do know how to assemble pitching staffs and they’ve assembled another good one with their ’08 team. Glavine might not be the Cy Young Award winner he used to be, but he’ll be hurling behind a good defense and he’ll do what he does best: get lots and lots of pop-fly outs. Smoltz and Hudson look like Cy Young contenders, and James looks like a solid #3.

Clearly the Braves are tops here. It’s the ‘90s all over again.

Labels: Braves, Eaton, Hamels, Kenderick, Mets, Moyer, Myers, Pitching, Rotation

The Phillies tremendous 5-2 victory last evening over the Atlanta Braves could … could … be the critical moment of the 2007 season, as the Mets lost again to the Washington Nationals and saw their lead over the Phillies evaporate to just one game. Alas, the San Diego Padres hammered the Giants 11-3 to maintain their one-game lead over the Phillies. With just four games left, the Phillies sit on the razor’s edge, a mere one game out of first place in the N.L. East and one game out of the wildcard lead.

The game showcased how differently the Phillies and Braves are now, compared to just recently. Gaffes like Chipper Jones’ failure to tag Chase Utley and then his wide throw to first on Aaron Rowand, which allowed Utley to score and set up Ryan Howard and Rowand scoring when Greg Dobbs singled them in later, were mistakes that you’d see the Phillies make. Mental, bone-headed lapses in judgment that would break a game wide-open.

Kyle Lohse also out-pitched Tim Hudson, who actually pitched quite well himself. Lohse handicapped Braves hitters all night long, striking out five and not allowing a walk. Aside from the home run he allowed off the bat of Mark Teixeira, it was a near-perfect performance. Hudson pitched well too, but was utterly done in by Jones error.

Also, the Phillies bullpen entered the game and nailed the Braves coffin shut with three strikeouts. The Braves bullpen, in contrast, allowed the Phillies to tack on an insurance run when Shane Victorino hammered an insurance home run to make the game 5-2 in the seventh inning. The tough pitching, the good fielding, the mistake-free baseball, it is like the Braves have regressed to become the Phillies of old. This year feels different.

I think Phillies phandom knows that too. Watching the game on TV last night, I loved seeing the intensity in the crowd. Citizens Bank Ballpark was rocking. If the Phillies make the playoffs, Citizens Bank is going to be a difficult place for the Cubs or Diamondbacks or Padres to come and win a game or two.

I also saw that the Colorado Rockies have won ten games in a row and would probably be the most unlikely playoff team in decades if they close the gap and take the wildcard. Their last nine wins have been against the Padres and Dodgers too: very good teams they are competing with for the playoffs. These Rockies have been amazing over the last week. Overall, they are 17-7 in September. The Rockies September surge augers well for their chances to compete in 2008.

The Mets, in contrast, have really opened the door for the Phillies with their 4-9 swoon since September 14th. What’s wrong with the Mets? Their pitching has really been shelled of late. They allowed 32 runs to the Nationals in this series. 32 runs!!!! Tonight the Mets have Pedro on the mound. If he collapses, I think the Mets could be ruined mentally.

We shall see.

Labels: Braves, Bullpen, Fielding, Lohse, Mets, Pitching, Rowand, Utley

The Phillies were idle last night but their playoff chances got a big, big boost when the Mets and Padres dropped games to the Nationals and Giants respectively. Now the Phillies sit a mere two games out of the N.L. East and the Phillies and Padres are tied for the wildcard. This is it, the Phillies officially control their own destiny. Win-out and the worst they can do is force a one-game playoff with the Padres.

As a result, the math has dramatically improved for the Phillies playoff chances. The Phillies now hold a 47-27% edge over the Padres, nearly two-to-one, in the wildcard race. Overall, the Phillies are 56% to make the playoffs. This is astonishing luck for the Phillies to see two teams, the Padres and Mets, falter so dramatically down the stretch. This is the anti-1964.

Well, after such a productive off-day, now the Phillies have to take to the field tonight against the Atlanta Braves.

Readers of this blog know it is no secret that I loathe and despise the Braves. Their bland domination of the N.L. East over the last decade has killed interest in baseball in the National League, in my opinion, and has been a real detriment to baseball. Their General Manager, John Schuerholz, poured fuel on the fire with his smug, self-congratulatory book Built To Win, a ego-stroking tome that contains patently dishonest baseball arguments (e.g., the Red Sox World Series title “proves” Moneyball doesn’t work). It is ironic to me that Joe Morgan blasted Billy Beane for “writing” Moneyball and dishonestly casting himself the hero, when Schuerholz wrote a book and dishonestly cast himself as a genius.

I can’t really complain I dislike Braves fans the way I loathe Mets fans: they are generally polite and nice, well-spoken. The stereotypical Southerner, warm and friendly. And the Braves strategy has been successful. Their starting pitching – Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, John Smoltz – has been some of the best in history. Bill James has written that the Braves rotation of the mid-1990’s was probably the best in recent history, or all-time. I find that difficult to argue with. I wish the Phillies were about assemble a collection of arms like the Braves have.

While the Braves will finish the season with a winning record, unlike last year’s 79-83 campaign, they will once again fail to win the N.L. East and will almost certainly finish in third place for the second consecutive season. The Braves won eleven consecutive N.L. East titles between 1995 and 2005 … and fourteen division titles if you throw out the strike-shortened season in 1994 when they trailed the Montreal Expos and include their 1991, 1992 and 1993 N.L. West division titles under the old two division format.

Such a run of dominance hasn’t been seen in baseball since some guys named Babe Ruth, Lou Gerhig, Joe DiMaggio and Mickey Mantle put together some good seasons from 1921 to 1964, winning 28 American League pennants and 20 World Series titles with a team in the Bronx that used to be called the Highlanders.

But those days are over. These Braves are on the decline, but they pose a major threat to the Phillies as they begin their series together today at Citizens Bank Ballpark. Reduced to playing the role of spoiler, I think there is some chance the Braves will spoil the Phillies race for the playoffs.

So what is wrong with the Braves this season? Simply put, their once-vaunted pitching staff looks like a shell of its old self. While Smoltz and Tim Hudson are a formidable one-two paring (14-7, 2.97 ERA and 16-8, 3.33 ERA respectively), the rest of the Braves pitching is a shambles. Chuck James, 11-10, 4.10 ERA, has been atrocious. His FIP ERA is a whopping 5.26, over a run more than his “real” ERA. Buddy Carlyle, 8-6, 5.16 ERA, has been equally bad, as is Kyle Davies, 4-9, 5.76 ERA. Both Carlyle and Davies have absurdly high FIPs: 5.16 and 5.76. When three of your top five starters have 5.00+ FIPs, you have a flawed pitching staff. The three have been shelled for sixty home runs in 346 innings, or 1.56 HR/9. Smoltz and Hudson, in contrast, have given up just 24 home runs in 404 innings of work, or 0.54 HR/9.

The Braves have had other issues in the bullpen. Mike Gonzalez, whom they acquired from the Pirates in exchange for Adam LaRoche, hurled just seventeen innings out of the bullpen. Bob Wickman, their closer, was a horror show, blowing six of twenty-six tries. Rafael Soriano has been a little better – eight of eleven – but he’s also given up twelve home runs. Lacking a go-to closer, the Braves have squandered leads and blown games late.

The shame of it is that their offense is quite good and the team added a lot of firepower with Mark Teixeira, although they may pay a price when they dealt Jarrod Saltalamacchia to the Rangers as part of the deal. Teixeria has hit 13 home runs and has 45 RBIs as a Brave in just 46 games. His OPS is a whopping 1.016 and he is leading the Braves in Runs Created per 27 Outs at 11.8. He has made the Braves offense very dangerous and has helped to deal with the impact the struggling Andruw Jones – .221 batting average, 26 home runs and 92 RBIs – is having on the Braves offense.

Examining the runs scored – runs allowed differential, I noticed something funny. The Braves, not the Phillies and Mets, have the best run differential in the N.L. East. In fact, if you went by Pythagorean win-loss records, the Braves would hold a two game edge in the N.L. East race:

Braves: +77, 86-70
Mets: +67, 84-72
Phillies: +61, 84-72
Marlins: -105, 68-88
Nationals: -114, 66-90

This is a product of the Mets being 21-14 in one-run games, while the Phillies are 14-23 and the Braves are 17-24.

Tonight, Jamie Moyer vs. Chuck James. Moyer, the cagey veteran seems to have a clear edge here over James. Tomorrow, Kyle Lohse vs. Tim Hudson and Thursday, it is Adam Eaton vs. John Smoltz.

Let's see what happens ...

Labels: Braves

A few odds ‘n ends today … it feels like a stream of consciousness kinda day … Last night’s 8-2 loss to the Rockies didn’t help the Phillies playoff chances, especially given that the Padres won. Remember fellas, these games against the Rockies are important because you are battling with them too for the playoffs. Don’t look towards the Mets series this weekend quite yet …

Look for the Phillies to run a lot this weekend vs. the Mets. Bourn will be in the lineup, and he and Victorino and J.Roll will be looking to victimize Paul Lo Duca again and again. The game in August where the Phillies came from behind to upset the Mets 10-9 still is fresh in the Phillies memories: the Phillies fueled that comeback with three steals against Lo Duca at the end of the game. I think the Phillies will come out of the series with seven or eight stolen bases.

Looks like the Braves wheeling-and-dealing blew up in their faces. They shipped a major prospect to the Rangers and got Mark Teixeira at the trading deadline, a move that was near universally applauded by the baseball world as being something that would help them win now, even if it would cost them in the long run in terms of prospects. Well, since acquiring Teixeira the Braves have gone 17-20 and have stayed in third place, but now sit nine games behind the Mets instead of three and a half. Ouch. With Andruw Jones sure to leave the team in the off-season as a free agent, you have to wonder how impressive the 2008 Atlanta Braves are going to be …

The AL playoff picture is basically set. The Angels are a near-lock to win the AL West, while the Indians and Red Sox hold comfy leads. The Yankees hold the wildcard by four games on the Tigers, which is do-able for the Tigers, but not likely. The Yankees are playing well and the Tigers don’t feel like they can get traction. Red Sox and Yankees in the ALCS again? Maybe. I’m sure that baseball is praying that the Indians don’t go far in the playoffs: Boston, Anaheim / Los Angeles, and New York are MAJOR markets for TV dollars. Cleveland? Not so much.

Don’t you just feel like the Cubs are this year’s version of the Cardinals? I could easily see the Cubs making the playoffs and then blitzing their way to the World Series. They’ve seemed to come on at the end of the season and they’ve got some real weapons. Hey, it’s only been 99 years since their last World Series title …

Tomorrow: why Chase Utley is the NL MVP.

Labels: American League, Base-Stealing, Bourn, Braves, Mets, Playoffs, Speed

With the trading deadline past, I have a couple of thoughts …

… Generally speaking the Phillies made some good moves at the deadline. While I hate sending Matt Maloney to the Reds for Kyle Lohse, the team did a nice job acquiring Tadahito Iguchi from the White Sox and Julio Mateo from the Mariners. Iguchi is a good hitter who can play defense and is a nice stopgap for Chase Utley being injured. When Utley returns, Iguchi will make a nice bench replacement.

Mateo has barely pitched in 2007, but he has a good track-record on the field. In 2006 he went 9-4 with a 4.14 ERA as the Mariners set-up man. You can’t argue with those results. The best part about the deals for Mateo and Igushi are that the Phillies really didn’t surrender a darn thing to get either of them. Aside from losing Maloney, the Phillies didn’t surrender a single plum prospect.

… Aaron Rowand is still a Phillie. I honestly thought he’d be traded, but either the injuries to Bourn and Victorino killed a deal or the Phillies felt that keeping him for the season and letting him walk at the end – I believe they get a first-round pick in the 2008 Draft for him – was the better call. Probably the right decision, given the message that trading him would have sent to the team.

… You could make an All-Star team out of the guys who have been on the Phillies DL in 2007: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Brett Myers, Tom Gordon, Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn, Jon Lieber, Jayson Werth. The injuries to Victorino and Bourn sting. That is a lot of speed gone from the lineup right there: specifically, fifty steals in fifty-four attempts (Victorino: 32 in 35 tries, Bourn: 18 in 19 tries). Will the Phillies lack of speed hurt in the coming days with games against the Cubs and Brewers? Chris Roberson has been recalled: will he get a chance to run?

…Much has been made of the Braves decision to acquire Mark Teixeira from the Rangers along with Octavio Dotel. I’m not sure that the braves did that much to strength themselves. Dotel is a capable closer and Teixeira will supply some pop to their lineup, but the Braves mortgaged a little of their future in the deal and seem a little desperate. I think the Braves real problem is that they aren’t good enough defensively to help their pitching staff and adding Dotel and Teixeira doesn’t help.

… The Red Sox made some nice deals, adding Eric Gagne was huge. What is interesting to me was how quiet the Yankees were at the deadline. Are they conceding defeat to the Red Sox?

…Truly the Pittsburgh Pirates haven’t a clue what they are doing. Why are earth are they trading for an aging pitcher with a massive salary when the team is young and plays in a small market with a tiny payroll? I haven’t a clue. This is incompetence.

Tomorrow, I’ll finally get around to talking about the Williamsport Crosscutters. I promise.

Labels: Bourn, Braves, Iguchi, Roberson, Rowand, Trade Deadline, Victorino

… The Phillies lost their 10,000th game. As I predicted, Adam Eaton bore the loss for number ten thousand. I think the significance of 10,000 losses is somewhat overplayed, but it does give the Phillies a little immortality and a little media attention when they seem to warrant so little from the national media.


They are the losingest [is that a word?] team in baseball history, the first team to lose so many games. Quite a distinction to have isn’t it? Sports Illustrated had a nice little piece in last week’s issue containing quotes from the Phillies recent past about the team’s futility. The principle lure of the Chicago Cubs is their futility, the lovable losers who haven’t won a World Series since 1908. The Boston Red Sox built their identity for the better part of eighty years on the fact that they traded away the greatest player in baseball history. Both teams are beloved by their long-suffering fans. An entire movie – Fever Pitch – was built around the idea that a seemingly sane and normal guy put his love of the Red Sox before his relationships with women. Stephen King has written often about the Red Sox in his books. Books, documentaries, websites devoted to the Red Sox and Cubs abound.


Why haven’t the Phillies built a similar following? There are a few possibilities: Philadelphia, the blue-collar town it is, isn’t full of narcissistic writers the way New England is. The Phillies have no one traumatic event that shook the team to the core like the Babe Ruth deal, Bill Buckner’s error, or Bucky Dent’s home run. Unlike the Cubs, the Phillies haven’t always played in attractive stadiums full of ivy on the outfield walls (admit it Cubs fans, 90% of the appeal of Cubs baseball is Wrigley Field). Add in that the Cubs actually were a strong team at the turn of the century and won the World Series twice (1907 & 1908), as compared to the fact that the Phillies didn’t win until 1980 – thus becoming the last of the original sixteen teams to win the World Series, and it doesn’t surprise anyone that the Phillies barely register on the radar of the national media.


The fact that the Phillies get notice for their futility only is something that irks me. Here are the all-time leaders in losses:


Philadelphia Phillies: 10,000
Boston/Milwaukee/Atlanta Braves: 9,677
Chicago Cubs: 9,421
Pittsburgh Pirates: 9,336
Cincinnati Reds: 9,335
St. Louis Cardinals: 9,152


I thought it was interesting that nobody is mocking the St. Louis Cardinals for losing over 9,000 games in their long history, or the Braves for being closer to 10,000 losses than 9,000. The Philadelphia Phillies have existed since 1883. They’ve lost a lot of games. They’ve also won a lot: 8,805. The Mets have only been around since 1962 and they’ve already lost 3,775 games. The Mariners? Been around for thirty years and have lost 2,541 games. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays will hit 1,000 losses this season for certain and they’ve only been around for a decade. They have a worse winning percentage than the Phillies!: .399 vs. .468 … As do the Texas Rangers: .467 vs. .468 … And the Colorado Rockies: .465 vs. .468 …

… The Phillies are still in the playoff hunt. Right at that .500 mark (okay, a game below it) and they are still holding on, just six games behind the Mets, despite some serious stumbles along the way. After the Phillies weather this series in San Diego with the Padres, they have some smooth sailing coming up: Nats and Pirates at home, then the Cubbies in Wrigley. The Phillies don’t get to match-up again with the Braves until August 10 and the Mets until August 27. I know it is encoded in the DNA of Phillies fans to be pessimistic and anxious about the team’s prospects, but people shouldn’t.

The Mets, by the way, have amazing resiliency. After looking vulnerable in mid-June, they’ve been playing some good ball of late. The stretch in late-June / early-July where they were playing 18 games in 17 days actually turned out well: one postponement, ten wins and seven losses. I was wrong. These guys are for real. Damn…

… The Phillies signed first-round pick Joe Savery. Savery is off to beautiful Williamsport, PA to join the Crosscutters in the New York – Penn League. Unfortunately Savery has missed the first month of their season and probably won’t get more than four or five starts in before the Crosscutters season sends on September 7th.

The Crosscutters are 14-15, by the way, and sit three games out of first place in their division. Their top player thus far this season has been Tyler Mach, their second baseman and the Phillies fourth-round pick (143rd overall) in the draft. In 21 games, Mach has 15 extra-base hits. Keep an eye on him.

Schedule for next week:

Monday: Thoughts on 756
Tuesday: Small-Ball Index
Wednesday: Farm Report - Lakewood
Thursday: Is the Phillies Starting Pitching Bad?
Friday: Farm Report - Clearwater

Labels: Braves, Mets, Odds 'n Ends, Playoffs, State of the Phillies

I figured that I’d give some second-half predictions to whet everyone’s appetites.

The American League … The Yankees will make a late-season run on the Red Sox, but the Red Sox will take the A.L. East by a couple of games … Over in the A.L. Central, the Twins will likewise make a run late in the season and make the playoff-race into a three-way affair like last season. The Twins, Tigers and Indians will battle it out, but in the end, the Tigers will capture the division and the Indians will squeeze the Twins for the wildcard. The White Sox, meanwhile, will be gutted. Expect to see the Red Sox and Yankees compete for the services of Jermaine Dye and/or Jose Contreras prior to the July 31 deadline … In the A.L. West, the Anaheim Angels will cruise to victory and make the playoffs easily. Yes, the A’s will make a run, as they always do, in the second-half of the season, but they start too far behind to make a real impact. My dark horse team here is the Seattle Mariners, who are playing well and have some terrific talent on the roster.

So it will be the Red Sox, the Tigers, the Indians and the Angels. Interestingly, just one of those teams – the Tigers – made the playoffs last season. How is that for parity?

The National League … In the Central, I could see any team – aside from the Reds – making a run on the division title. The N.L. Central is the worst division in baseball and it shows. I like the Brewers to take the flag over the Cubs and Cardinals. The small-market, small-payroll Brewers have succeeded where the high-priced Cubs have failed thanks to shrewd moves and a realization that power-hitting, working the count and pitching will trump small-ball in the long-run … Out West, in the N.L. West, I like the Los Angeles Dodgers to take the N.L. West crown. Expect the Dodgers, with their deep farm system, to be buyers at the trading deadline and expect them to add some offense to their roster. Miguel Cabrera? Dye? I expect to see the Dodgers aggressive at the deadline. The Padres will coast into the wildcard in second place, followed by the D-backs and Rockies. The N.L. West is a deep division and probably the best in baseball. The only division close is the … N.L. East. Okay, so do I think the Phillies are going to make the playoffs? Yes. I also expect to see Pat Burrell and Michael Bourn traded prior to July 31. Here is my old prediction … The Phillies narrowly edge out the Atlanta Braves for the N.L. East crown. The decisive moment is the Phillies – Braves series on Sept. 25-27 at Citizens, where the Phillies take 2 of 3 and gain the decisive edge heading into the stretch run. The Braves lose out and fall out of the wildcard as well. The Mets implode down the stretch and barely finish above .500.

So the Phillies, Padres, Dodgers and Brewers. In the case of the Brewers and Phillies, these are two teams that have not yet made the playoffs under the new format.

Trading Deadline Buyers: Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Braves.
Trading Deadline Sellers: Marlins, White Sox, Rangers, Cardinals, Blue Jays.

N.L. MVP: Chase Utley, Phillies
N.L. Cy Young: Brad Penny, Dodgers

A.L. MVP: Vlad Guerrero, Angels
A.L. Cy Young: Dan Haren, A’s

World Series: Dodgers vs. Angels.

Tomorrow: Cardinals vs. Phillies preview.

Labels: Braves, Mets, Predictions

With inter-league play finally completed, the Phillies can start to focus their attention on playing their fellow N.L. … and more specifically, N.L. East … rivals. The Phillies close out the first half of the 2007 season starting tonight in St. Louis with a three-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals, followed by a three-game set against the Cincinnati Reds at Citizens Bank Ballpark. After playing nineteen games in twenty days, the Phillies have days off sandwiched in between this series, which hopefully means that the team will roll into their next two series rested and ready.

The next few weeks will present the Phillies with some opportunities: the Cardinals and Reds, their next foes, both look terrible this season. The 32-37 Cardinals are struggling through a hard-luck season which has seen manager Tony LaRussa pick up a DUI in Spring Training, then pitcher Josh Hancock died in a car accident, all the while the team has played sub-.500 baseball. Even with Albert Pujols being his usual terrific self, the 2007 Cardinals are a shell of the team … which wasn’t even that good anyway … that won the N.L. Central and the World Series in 2006.

The Cardinals are doing nothing well, from hitting (their .130 ISO is one of the worst in the N.L., and they aren’t doing a good job about getting on base either) to pitching (their 4.60 Fielding Independent Pitching ERA is fifteenth in the N.L., better than just the Washington Nationals at 4.70) to fielding (.690 DER, .007 below the league average). The Cardinals are allowing 5.42 runs per game, worst in the National League. This team is terrible and seems like it needs an injection of youth or LaRussa and the rest of the Cardinals high command risk seeing their 2006 championship become a fluke, an afterthought the same way the Florida Marlins ’97 title was.

The Reds are even riper fruit for the Phillies to pick. The 28-45 Reds are the worst team in the National League and don’t seem to have a prayer. Despite having a ton of talent – namely two terrific pitchers in Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo – the Reds are a total disaster. As usual, the Reds are able to hammer the ball (.180 ISO), but unlike in years past the Reds aren’t putting hitters on base (.321 OBP) and are hitting awfully with runners in scoring position (.230 BA/RISP). The Reds fielders are atrocious. Their surprisingly good pitching staff is being utterly undone by their terrible fielding (.677 DER). Expect the Reds to move Adam Dunn to a contender by the trading deadline, Reds fans. Also, expect the team to be unable to unload Ken Griffey, Jr., whose porous defense, declining hitting and shaky health have basically killed the Reds as a franchise since he arrived in 1999.

The week ahead is a golden opportunity to pick up four, five or even six easy wins and catch up to the Mets and Braves. The slumping Mets will likely roll into the Phillies series broken and weary. While the Phillies get the Cardinals this weekend, the Mets get the Oakland A’s. The Mets also have to play seven days in a row heading into next Friday night’s doubleheader with the Phillies. The Mets ought to be exhausted by the time they wrap up the series with the Phillies on Sunday afternoon.

Then the road doesn't get any easier. The Mets will ultimately play eighteen games in seventeen days before the All-Star Break rolls around. The Mets are 4-14 this month and seem to be collapsing. Their massive lead over the Phillies and Braves has dwindled to nothing. When these two teams play each other next Friday, expect to see the Mets with a worse record than the Phillies.

Labels: Braves, Mets, National League, Odds 'n Ends

Nice win last night over the Giants, even when you take into account Adam Eaton's six runs allowed in five innings of work. This West Coast swing to San Francisco and Arizona might be just what the Phillies needed most. The Phillies always seem to play N.L. West teams well. The Phillies play another three games in the City by the Bay this weekend. A 4-0 sweep is a little much to ask for, but the Phillies ought to walk away from this series with three wins or so.

Give credit to the new regime New York Mets. As Phillies fans we were used to the seeing the Mets bumble around, spending zillions of dollars while still managing to lose games. Remember the 2002 Mets? They spent $94 million dollars on free agents – Roberto Alomar, Mo Vaughn, Jeromy Burnitz – to win a whopping 75 games. The Phillies spent just $57 million to win 80 games that season.

I hate these new-look, competent, Mets. Since Omar Minaya was installed as General Manager and Willie Randolph became the team’s manager after the 2004 season the Mets have made a number of savvy moves. First they signed Pedro Martinez to be their ace hurler. Then they inked Carlos Beltran to be their star in center field. The next year they poached Bill Wagner from the Phillies to be their closer, signed Carlos Delgado as a free agent from the Marlins, and brought in Paul Lo Duca to catch. Finally armed with enough talent, they easily dethroned the Braves as division champs and basically ran away with the division title last season.

Thus far this season the Mets are locked in a tight race with the Braves for the N.L. East lead with the Phillies and Marlins lagging behind. As I looked at the numbers I wondered: Are the Mets really that good?

Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). If you use ESPN’s version be advised that it is pitifully is out-of-date, however. James adjusted RC after the 2004 season ended.
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
DER – Defense Efficiency Ratio: (Batters Faced – (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) / (Batters Faced – (Home Runs, Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) How often fielders convert balls put into play into outs.
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP

I want to focus my attention on their pitchers to start. With Pedro out and Tom Glavine and Orlando Hernandez well into their forties, the Mets rotation seems like it ought to have serious issues. The Mets Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is 4.05, worse than the league average of 3.97. The Mets are issuing a lot of walks – 107, or 4.1 per game, far worse than the league average. Yet to my stunned amazement, the Mets are actually leading the N.L. in ERA at 2.96 and are surrendering the fewest runs per game at 3.54. What gives?

I looked up the numbers and notice that the Mets are turning in a spectacular job with their gloves. As I write this, the Mets Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER) is .727, second-best in the N.L. after the Cubs (.733), and much better than the N.L. average of .697. So the Mets fielders are doing a nice job covering up the fact that the Mets hurlers have been making mistakes. Also, despite losing Pedro, the Mets hurlers are getting a lot of strikeouts: 7.5 per game, compared to the N.L. average of 6.7.

The Mets offense is a major force to be reckoned with here. They score 5.38 runs per game, second-best in the N.L. They are doing a lot of things right at the moment: the Mets OBP is well above the league average (.362 vs. .332) and their slugging percentage is an impressive .444, forty-five points higher than the league average. The 2007 Mets are doing nearly everything well – hitting for power, getting on base, leading the league in stolen bases, etc.

Individually the 2007 Mets probably boast the strongest lineup that the N.L. has seen in years. Despite some struggles by David Wright and, especially, Carlos Delgado, the Mets boast a brutal murderers row:

Runs Created / 27 Outs:
1. Jose Reyes: 9.9
2. David Wright: 4.8
3. Carlos Beltran: 8.8
4. Carlos Delgado:3.6
5. Moises Alou: 5.5
6. Shawn Green: 7.5
7. Paul Lo Duca: 2.9
8. Jose Valentin: 6.6

I think the 2007 Mets are easily capable of hitting the 900 run mark. If they played in the A.L. with a DH, I think we could honestly say they'd be a threat for 1,000 runs scored.

But can the Mets tremendous success at the plate get them past the fact that they have real issues with their pitching? I am not convinced that it can. I was interested to see, parusing The Hardball Times website, that the Mets are underperforming in the Pythagorean Win-Loss numbers. Here are the standings as of yesterday:

N.L. East:
1. Atlanta: 17-10
2. New York: 16-10
3. Florida: 13-14
4. Philadelphia: 12-15
5. Washington: 9-19

Now scope out the Pythagorean Standings:

N.L. East:
1. New York: 18-8
2. Atlanta: 15-12
3. Florida: 14-13
4. Philadelphia: 14-13
5. Washington: 7-21

The Braves are doing a nice job winning close games. They are 8-5 in games decided by 2 or less runs. The Mets are 4-3. The Phillies, in particular, are struggling at this at 3-8. Ordinarily when teams outperform their Pythagorean Win-Loss I assume that these teams will regress to the mean and struggle down the stretch. Not here. I am predicting that the Braves will win the N.L. East because of their sterling starting pitching and their revamped bullpen, featuring Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano, two pitchers the Braves acquired in the off-season who, along with closer Bob Wickman, are making the Braves bullpen pretty brutal to deal with. With Tim Hudson (3-0, 1.40 ERA) and John Smoltz (3-1, 3.96 ERA) hurling well, I think the Braves have the best pitching in the National League right now and have to be the favorites to take the N.L. East flag.

In the long run, the Mets reliance on offense will come back to bite them during the mid-summer when teams begin to hit their thin pitching staff more aggressively. Ultimately the Mets will start to struggle and will see the Braves take a commanding lead. The only team who can catch them are the Phillies, the only team capable to matching the Braves pitching factory.

Have a nice weekend ...

Labels: Braves, Eaton, Mets

My usual Opening Day post emphasizes how unimportant Opening Day is in the grand scheme of things. It is 1 game in 162. Teams lose on Opening Day and roll off 100 wins all of the time. Sure you want to start the season off right, just like the Mets did last night against the Cardinals, but opening the season 1-0 won’t make or break you. There is a symbolic quality to the first game of the year that just isn’t that important.

But we’ll start by scoping out tonight’s Phillies – Braves matchup. To my surprise the Phillies send Brett Myers to the mound tonight instead of Cole Hamels, the player I figured that the Phillies would make their Opening Day starter. Expect big things from Myers, whom many are projecting to be a Cy Young Award candidate in the wake of his strong performances at the beginning and end of 2006. He’ll be matched up against John Smoltz, the Braves ancient warhorse and the last player still on the roster from the 1991 World Series team.

Myers will pitch fine in 2007: 12-7 with a 3.91 ERA. Myers had a 3-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio, which is tremendous. Myers struck out 23% of the batters he faced and, when he allowed a ball to be put into play, he was more likely to have it be a harmless grounder than anything else: he allowed 46% of the balls put into play to be grounders, compared to the baseball average of 44%. Myers may not be the Phillies best pitcher … I think that honor goes to Cole Hamels, who also had a 3-to-1 K/BB ratio, but also struck out a greater percentage of opposing players – 26% – and improved dramatically as the season wore on … but he’s a sure bet, a veteran of five seasons with the Phillies who has experience. Myers also pitched the Braves well in 2006, going 1-1 with a 3.55 ERA in five starts against them, striking out 32 Braves in 33 innings of work.

(The Phillies are slated to send Hamels to the mound on Wednesday to face off with Tim Hudson.)

Smoltz, Myers counterpart, didn’t pitch the Phillies nearly as well, earning no-decisions in his two starts with a 3.86 ERA. Advantage: Phillies.

The Phillie hit the Braves vaunted pitching well in 2006, hitting 23 home runs and scoring 104 runs in 18 games. The Braves, in contrast, hit 28 home runs, but scored just 84 runs because they mustered just a .297 OBP against the Phillies pitching, while the Phillies got on base at a .368 clip. Naturally Ryan Howard hit the Braves well, hitting six home runs with 15 RBIs, as did Jimmy Rollins: 4 home runs, 14 RBIs. Aaron Rowand hit them surprisingly as well, with two home runs and a .348 OBP.

Aside from the departed Adam LaRoche, nobody hit the Phillies pitching well in 2006 on the Braves side, so offensively the Phillies figure to have an edge here as well.

Alright, enough speculation. Play Ball!

Labels: Braves, Hamels, Howard, Myers, Predictions, Rollins, Rowand

I’ll kick-off my 2007 "Know Thy Enemy" series with a look at the Bland Empire, the Atlanta Braves. I find it very cathartic that the Braves 1991-2005 run of success collapsed the year that their GM released a book promoting his own genius entitled “Built to Win”. The book itself was a nauseating collection of shoddy arguments, fuzzy logic and self-gratifying ego-massaging. No. I did not like that book.

But alas, the Braves are trying once more rise from the ashes, which is a forlorn hope. I refer to the Braves as the Bland Empire and I think they fit the bill quite nicely. No team did more to kill fan enthusiasm about baseball in the 1990's than the Braves, a collection of dull, colorless players whose passionless, mechanical domination of the N.L. East made the game a big yawn. I don't believe that Braves domination of the N.L. East was the product of their manager's genius either. Perhaps the Braves were built less to win, than the rest of the N.L. East was built to lose. The Braves record looks a lot less impressive taking into account the incompetence in Queens, New York, that mired the Mets in the 1990s, as well as the parsimonious ways of the Phillies and Marlins. Throw the hapless Expos into the mix and you’d have to say that the Braves won those division titles partly by default all of those years. Tellingly, the Braves would flop in the playoffs each and every time. Oh sure, they played in the World Series a few times in the early ‘90’s* (1991, 1992, 1995, 1996), but they won just one ('95) and since 1996 have played in just one World Series – 1999 – where they were easily beaten by the Yankees. Year-in and year-out, they dominate the N.L. East, partly thanks to the unbalanced schedule, and then flame-out in the playoffs. It is hard to be impressed by that.

* I think one of the reasons why the media rallied around the ’93 Phillies was the fact that the Braves were such a dull team and the Phillies restored some luster and character to the game that the Braves were bleeding out.

The 2006 Braves went 79-83, their first losing record since 1990, when they went 65-97. The psychological impact of the collapse will be felt for a long time if the Braves can’t mount a comeback in 2007. Was 2006 the end of the Braves dynasty?

I. Offense. A team that once prided itself on doing every phase of the game right suddenly found itself behaving like a one-dimensional squad of slow-footed sluggers. The Braves led the N.L. in home runs with 222 and Isolated Power at the plate at .184, but finished dead-last in bases stolen with just 52. These aren’t the Braves of Terry Pendleton and Fred McGriff. Their fastest player was Edgar Renteria, who stole just 17 bases. They also hit just 26 triples, another sign of the Braves lack of team speed. Yes, the Braves scored lots of runs – 849, second in the N.L. to the Phillies – but they lack the balance they used to have. Seeing the Braves rely on home runs to win games strikes me as odd … I expect to see the Braves win a lot of 7-6 games in 2007 and lose as many by that score too, even without Adam LaRoche.

II. Pitching. The Braves of the 1991 – 2005 era followed a fairly easy to understand and uncomplicated formula for success. Three parts pitching, two parts fielding and a pinch of offense. It got them far, but the team’s problem is that their pitching staff is in shambles these days. The Braves got started when their trio of talented pitchers – John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and John Avery – matured and turned into a formidable rotation. After adding Greg Maddux to the mix, the Braves rode them to their … umpteen division titles in the 1990s.

The problem is that the Braves haven’t done a particularly good job replacing them. Avery is loooong gone, but so are Glavine (now a Met) and Maddux (now a Padre). Smoltz is still with the team, but he is getting long in the tooth and is the Braves best pitcher. He went 16-9 with a 3.49 ERA in 2006 (his FIP* ERA was almost right on the money at 3.46), and had a dominating season.

* FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).

After Smoltz, however, the pitching staff is a mess. Tim Hudson started 35 games like Smoltz, but went only 13-12 with a 4.86 ERA. Let’s not mince words here: Hudson was terrible. His strikeout / walk ratio was under 2-to-1. He surrendered 25 home runs, a career high. Never a strikeout artist, Hudson is a groundball pitcher who relies on his fielders to make outs. They didn’t, so Hudson suffered. When Billy Beane unloaded Hudson on the Braves rather than see him walk in free agency, pundits assumed that the Braves had gotten the better part of the deal, acquiring a Cy Young candidate for a few minor leaguers. Now, two years later, it looks like Bill Beane swindled the Braves, getting talent for an over-paid pitcher who needed a top-flight defense to be successful.

The rest of the starting rotation is a mess. Injuries forced the braves to go with rookie Chuck James as their third starter. Surprisingly, james went 11-4, but his 3.78 ERA masked a FIP ERA that is 5.16. Bottom-line: the Braves played very good defense behind James (.753 DER*), but that won’t be repeated in 2007. He’ll get shelled, often.

* DER – Defense Efficiency Ratio: (Batters Faced – (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) / (Batters Faced – (Home Runs, Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) How often fielders convert balls put into play into outs.

The bullpen has been bolstered by the acquisition of Mike Gonzalez, a fairly arrogant move for the Braves. The deal, which sent talented first baseman Adam LaRoche to the Pirates, is the sort of deal teams thinking they can contend make. Gonzalez is a talented relief artist who saved all 24 games he could for the Pirates, surrendering just one home run in 54 innings of work. The problem is that Gonzalez is going to discover that his new team has as much use for his services as his old one: the Braves aren’t going to be handling Gonzalez leads to protect night-after-night, because they are going to be behind because their starting rotation is as porous. I can’t imagine the Braves improving on their 19-33 record in one-run games in 2006.

III. Fielding. It was a major surprise to me that the Braves defense profiled on as badly as it did in 2006. Atlanta’s .689 DER was .004 below the league average This team has Andruw Jones in centerfield. In 2006 Jones was +30, the second-best mark in the majors. Over in left field, Jason Lanerhans was +15, so this team has a lot of talent on defense and ought to have played better than they did. The problem the Braves have is that while their outfield defense is outstanding – the Braves +63 was the best in the majors by far – their infield was simply awful at a combined -48.

Edgar Renteria and Marcus Giles are an atrocious middle infield combination. The Red Sox made a savvy move by dumping Renteria after the ’05 season, another move that pundits applauded the Braves for making that turned out to backfire. Meanwhile, Chipper Jones is a shadow of his former self at third base.

I don’t see much hope for the braves to improve this season. Their infield returns intact, but for LaRoche, who might have been the strongest performer of the quartet. Their outfield is strong, but defense really starts in the infield.

IV. Outlook. I think most pundits are making the assumption that the Braves will improve on their 79-83 record and make a run at the Mets for the division title. I say they won’t. The sun has finally set on the Braves Empire. This is an aging team, with an ailing farm system, and a rotation that is thin and old. This team can’t keep up with the younger, more aggressive Phillies and Mets. The balance of power has finally shifted north. It was inevitable – all of the great empires of the world have risen, dominated the world and then fallen into the abyss … Rome, the Byzantines, the Aztecs, Venice, Spain, Sweden, Russia, Great Britain … all empires rise and then fall. It is inevitable. Now the Braves can fall into the abyss. It’s their turn.

Labels: Braves, Predictions