Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Brotherly Love: Phillies vs. A's Preview
Once upon a time, Philadelphia had two baseball teams. They played in different stadiums, in different leagues, and had different fans. If you came from the city’s blue-collar, predominately Italian neighborhoods and were a Democrat, you went to the Baker Bowl* to root for the Phillies. If you were Irish, middle-class and a Republican, you journeyed to Shibe Park and rooted for the Athletics. While Phillies fans sat through decades of defeats – between 1918 and 1948 the team had a losing record every season but one, a 78-76 campaign in 1932 – the Athletics had a few good teams.
* The Phillies and A’s shared Shibe Park starting in 1938.
Owned by the mild-mannered Connie Mack, the Philadelphia Athletics won the American League pennant in 1902, 1905, 1910, 1911, 1913 and 1914, winning the World Series in ’10, ’11 and ’13. Forced to disband his team, which featured the $100,000 Infield of Home Run Baker, Eddie Collins, Jack Barry and Stuffy McInnis, due to finances after losing the ’14 World Series to the Boston Braves, Mack returned the A’s to glory in the late 1920’s. The A’s finished second to the mighty New York Yankees in ’27 and ’28 before dethroning them in 1929, featuring a team that might be one of the finest in baseball history. (Click here for a terrific story that ran in Sports Illustrated a few years ago about the ’29 – ’31 Athletics and how their greatness has been lost to history.)
The ’29 A’s repeated as champs in ’30 and won the A.L. pennant again in ’31 before returning to mediocrity. As the cross-town Phillies rose in the late ‘40s, the A’s plodded along before they joined baseball’s westward movement and left Philadelphia after the ’54 season for Kansas City, where they became the western-most franchise in baseball before the Dodgers and Giants moved to the West Coast in 1958. The A’s would sit in Kansas City for another decade, existing as a virtual farm team of the New York Yankees, selling them stars like Roger Maris and Clete Boyer, before leaving for the San Francisco Bay Area in 1967, whereupon they became the Oakland Athletics.
Today, many Philadelphia sports fans don’t know about the A’s and their history in Philadelphia, which is too bad. Even before I read Moneyball and came to admire Billy Beane, the A’s were my second-favorite team in baseball. How could you not love Philadelphia’s other baseball team, those long-lost sons living on the West Coast? The A’s turbulent history, their decades of terrible baseball interwoven with two great dynasties (’10 – ’14 and ’29 – ’31), symbolizes how fleeting triumph and success were to Philadelphia in the early-1900s. As much as the Phillies struggles with racial issues in the latter half of the century mirror society’s own struggles with race, the Athletics symbolize how the city of Philadelphia struggled along to find success but was so frequently over-shadowed by that behemoth to the north of us: New York City.
Before I dive too much into tonight's Phillies - A's preview, I want to include a link to the Philadelphia A's Historical Society website. I love the work that they've done. I haven't had a chance to visit their Museum, which is located in Hatboro, but I plan to one of these days. Their web site is phenomenal and is a terrific resource of information. These guys are an under-appreciated treasure.
So the Phillies swing out to the West Coast to do battle with the Oakland A's before heading to Dallas, Texas, to take on the Rangers. The A's - Phillies matchup ought to be a good one, only the third time in history that these two teams have met. The A's, of course, are well-known throughout baseball for their pioneering Moneyball-approach to the game, which has enabled them to remain competitive despite having a fraction of the payroll of the rest of baseball. These days the A's are a different team from the walks-and-homers squad that Miguel Tejada and Jason Giambi led to division titles between 2000 and 2003. Peter Gammons forecasted this back in '04 when he noted that the market at the time was under-valuing fielding and that teams like the A's were moving to emphasize the fielding component of the game.
Sure enough, fielding, not walks-and-homers, is the A's forte these days. At +28 Fielding Plays, the A's are the top defensive team in the A.L., a fact that helps keep the A's team ERA at 3.41, lowest in the A.L. after the White Sox. The A's ought to send their best pitcher to the mound tonight, Joe Blanton. This will be an interesting game partly because Blanton has been on the radar of a number of MLB teams as a trading prospect. I believe that the Reds were connected to Blanton at one time or another. Don't be surprised if the Phillies swing a trade for the enormously talented Blanton later this season. He would be a terrific fit for the Phillies: in 2007 he allowed just 40 walks and 16 home runs in 230 innings of work (1.6 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9).
Offensively the A's aren't what they were in the early part of the decade. Their .330 OBP is below league average and their .378 slugging percentage is one of the worst in the A.L. This is a team that is still maturing. I'm not sure that Jack Cust (11 Home Runs, 34 RBI, .416 OBP) is the answer, but they need more bats to protect him.
I'll comment again tomorrow, but that is all for today.
(6) comments
* The Phillies and A’s shared Shibe Park starting in 1938.
Owned by the mild-mannered Connie Mack, the Philadelphia Athletics won the American League pennant in 1902, 1905, 1910, 1911, 1913 and 1914, winning the World Series in ’10, ’11 and ’13. Forced to disband his team, which featured the $100,000 Infield of Home Run Baker, Eddie Collins, Jack Barry and Stuffy McInnis, due to finances after losing the ’14 World Series to the Boston Braves, Mack returned the A’s to glory in the late 1920’s. The A’s finished second to the mighty New York Yankees in ’27 and ’28 before dethroning them in 1929, featuring a team that might be one of the finest in baseball history. (Click here for a terrific story that ran in Sports Illustrated a few years ago about the ’29 – ’31 Athletics and how their greatness has been lost to history.)
The ’29 A’s repeated as champs in ’30 and won the A.L. pennant again in ’31 before returning to mediocrity. As the cross-town Phillies rose in the late ‘40s, the A’s plodded along before they joined baseball’s westward movement and left Philadelphia after the ’54 season for Kansas City, where they became the western-most franchise in baseball before the Dodgers and Giants moved to the West Coast in 1958. The A’s would sit in Kansas City for another decade, existing as a virtual farm team of the New York Yankees, selling them stars like Roger Maris and Clete Boyer, before leaving for the San Francisco Bay Area in 1967, whereupon they became the Oakland Athletics.
Today, many Philadelphia sports fans don’t know about the A’s and their history in Philadelphia, which is too bad. Even before I read Moneyball and came to admire Billy Beane, the A’s were my second-favorite team in baseball. How could you not love Philadelphia’s other baseball team, those long-lost sons living on the West Coast? The A’s turbulent history, their decades of terrible baseball interwoven with two great dynasties (’10 – ’14 and ’29 – ’31), symbolizes how fleeting triumph and success were to Philadelphia in the early-1900s. As much as the Phillies struggles with racial issues in the latter half of the century mirror society’s own struggles with race, the Athletics symbolize how the city of Philadelphia struggled along to find success but was so frequently over-shadowed by that behemoth to the north of us: New York City.
Before I dive too much into tonight's Phillies - A's preview, I want to include a link to the Philadelphia A's Historical Society website. I love the work that they've done. I haven't had a chance to visit their Museum, which is located in Hatboro, but I plan to one of these days. Their web site is phenomenal and is a terrific resource of information. These guys are an under-appreciated treasure.
So the Phillies swing out to the West Coast to do battle with the Oakland A's before heading to Dallas, Texas, to take on the Rangers. The A's - Phillies matchup ought to be a good one, only the third time in history that these two teams have met. The A's, of course, are well-known throughout baseball for their pioneering Moneyball-approach to the game, which has enabled them to remain competitive despite having a fraction of the payroll of the rest of baseball. These days the A's are a different team from the walks-and-homers squad that Miguel Tejada and Jason Giambi led to division titles between 2000 and 2003. Peter Gammons forecasted this back in '04 when he noted that the market at the time was under-valuing fielding and that teams like the A's were moving to emphasize the fielding component of the game.
Sure enough, fielding, not walks-and-homers, is the A's forte these days. At +28 Fielding Plays, the A's are the top defensive team in the A.L., a fact that helps keep the A's team ERA at 3.41, lowest in the A.L. after the White Sox. The A's ought to send their best pitcher to the mound tonight, Joe Blanton. This will be an interesting game partly because Blanton has been on the radar of a number of MLB teams as a trading prospect. I believe that the Reds were connected to Blanton at one time or another. Don't be surprised if the Phillies swing a trade for the enormously talented Blanton later this season. He would be a terrific fit for the Phillies: in 2007 he allowed just 40 walks and 16 home runs in 230 innings of work (1.6 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9).
Offensively the A's aren't what they were in the early part of the decade. Their .330 OBP is below league average and their .378 slugging percentage is one of the worst in the A.L. This is a team that is still maturing. I'm not sure that Jack Cust (11 Home Runs, 34 RBI, .416 OBP) is the answer, but they need more bats to protect him.
I'll comment again tomorrow, but that is all for today.
Labels: Batting, Pitching, Trade Deadline
Monday, June 23, 2008
'77 vs '08: Which is better?
Well, the Phillies pretty much got their asses kicked by the Angels and their pitching staff. This weekend's sweep at the hands of the Angels caps a five-game losing streak. The Phillies have lost seven of their last eight games since they clocked the Cardinals 20-2 on Friday the 13th of June. They need to righten ship and it will be interesting to see what they do against the A's in Oakland starting tomorrow night, which starts a six-game road trip to the Bay Area and deep into the heart of Texas for the Phillies. More on that tomorrow. Today's topic:
The Daily News Bill Conlin just published a pretty good piece comparing the '77 Phillies offense to the '08 Phillies. I thought it was worth following up with my own thoughts on the subject.
A little bit of history: the '77 team was a monster, the second consecutive Phillies team to win 101 games and was generally regarded as being better than its '76 predecessor, which got swept by the Big Red Machine in the '76 NLCS. The '77 team, which was managed by Danny Ozark, seemed fated to face-off with the Yankees in a rematch of the 1950 World Series, but the '77 team fell to the L.A. Dodgers 3-1 in the NLCS. The '78 team won 90 games and returned to the NLCS but were once more unceremoniously beaten by the Dodgers 3-to-1. Danny Ozark was dumped by the Phillies in '79 after failing to win the N.L. East and the team marched on to its climactic date with history in '80.
The '77 team was probably the best team in Phillies history after the '80 (and possibly '81) team(s), so it is worth looking at the '08 team and wondering if we are looking at a team that will occupy the pantheon of legendary Phillies teams. Here is Conlin's article:
The Daily News Bill Conlin just published a pretty good piece comparing the '77 Phillies offense to the '08 Phillies. I thought it was worth following up with my own thoughts on the subject.
A little bit of history: the '77 team was a monster, the second consecutive Phillies team to win 101 games and was generally regarded as being better than its '76 predecessor, which got swept by the Big Red Machine in the '76 NLCS. The '77 team, which was managed by Danny Ozark, seemed fated to face-off with the Yankees in a rematch of the 1950 World Series, but the '77 team fell to the L.A. Dodgers 3-1 in the NLCS. The '78 team won 90 games and returned to the NLCS but were once more unceremoniously beaten by the Dodgers 3-to-1. Danny Ozark was dumped by the Phillies in '79 after failing to win the N.L. East and the team marched on to its climactic date with history in '80.
The '77 team was probably the best team in Phillies history after the '80 (and possibly '81) team(s), so it is worth looking at the '08 team and wondering if we are looking at a team that will occupy the pantheon of legendary Phillies teams. Here is Conlin's article:
Bill Conlin: Phillies' 2008 offense might be better than 1977 powerhouse
Daily News Sports ColumnistTODAY'S EXERCISE: Match up the best offensive Phillies team you've seen in days of yore with a 2008 offense that might be the best in franchise history. But first, some observations:Psychological trauma, sports- team-collapse variety, often leaves reality gaps in our memories.
Black Friday of 1977 - Game 3 of the NLCS against the Dodgers - is known as "The 10-Minute Collapse." But the actual moment of truth, Manny Mota's two-out fly to the warning track in left that Greg Luzinski failed to catch, was more like 10 seconds, counting the wild relay throw that set up the rest of the inning.A black hole of denial surrounds that loss. The Phillies had two more possible home games to atone for the baseball crimes committed while squandering that 5-3 lead. And Steve Carlton vs. Tommy John in Game 4 seemed to flip the odds back in the Phils' favor. But the veteran lefthander outpitched Lefty in a swirling mist of rain. Thirty-one years later, The 10-Minute Collapse is all that remains.
In Game 6 of 1993, what if Joe Carter had popped up? Was there a guarantee that Curt Schilling would have beaten the talented Blue Jays in a Game 7?But this is about offense, the run-scoring kind, not the kind of offense that scars our souls.
It comes down to either a '77 team that won 101 games or the '93 upstarts who won 97 on the way to an easy NL East title. One will face off with a 21st century attack that appears headed for special status.Each was prolific. But their approaches to offense could not have been more different. The scalawags and rascals of '93 took a grinding, relentless approach to the business of scoring 877 runs. One number tells most of it: an on base-percentage of .351, commendable for an individual, but insane for an entire team.
Unlike the 2008 mashers, who specialize in late-inning lightning, the 1977 team ended a lot of games early. After the Phils sent a pitcher to an early shower one night, a scout cracked, "The least this team could do is wait until the fans got to their seats." And the '77 team could longball an opponent from any spot in the lineup - even No. 9. Carlton batted .268 with three homers and 15 RBI. Larry Christenson also hit three with 13 RBI.The 77ers hit .279 as a team, pounded 186 homers and finished with a .346 OBP and .448 slugging average.
But they accomplished those numbers playing in Veterans Stadium, a so-called "neutral" ballpark. The Pirates, Cardinals and Reds played in similar all-purpose yards. There was no interleague play, no Rockies or D-backs, no spate of new retro-parks, most with hitter-friendly dimensions. Suffice it to say, these Phillies would not be on the scoring and homer pace they are on playing by '77 parameters. And Mike Schmidt's Phillies might have put up epic numbers playing in Citizens Bank Park.But the structures of both teams are similar enough for side-by-side comparisons regardless of ballpark and era gaps. In fact, some key 2008 stats are on track to wind up eerily similar. This team projects to hit a club- record 235 homers. That team hit 186, led by Greg Luzinski's 39 and Mike Schmidt's 38, and a total of seven players homered in double figures. Chase Utley, Pat Burrell and Ryan Howard are already in double figures with 97 games remaining. Pedro Feliz, Jason Werth, Geoff Jenkins and Chris Coste are on track for double-digit dongs and could make seven, as well.
Those Phillies scored 847 runs. These Phillies are on an 857 pace. That's close. As for the dreaded strikeouts, the '77 gang whiffed an economical 806 times. Charlie Manuel's Big Wind Machine is headed for 1,054. But . . . An amazing seven National League teams have struck out more this season than the Phils' to-date total of 423. Take away Howard's obscene 87 and you're looking at Club Contact.In their 65th game of the 1977 season, the Phils engaged basically the same Big Red Machine that swept them in the '76 LCS (Hello, Rockies). It was 9-9 after six. Christenson gave up seven and Ron Reed gave up a pair. But the Phils scored six unanswered runs while Tug McGraw was finishing with three scoreless innings.
PITA (Pitchers In Traction Again) would be aghast at such abuse.But Tugger was not the headline. My piece saluted "The Mouse That Roared." In the seventh inning, shortstop Larry Bowa pounced on a fastball from former teammate Joe Hoerner and ripped it to left-center for the only grand slam of his career. It was a grab-a-towel-and-fan-your-fainted-teammate moment.
Another thing stands out from that Game 65: The victory left the second-place Phils with an underwhelming 36-29 record. They trailed the Cubs by an alarming 6 1/2 games.General manager Paul Owens had been unhappy with the production at the top of Danny Ozark's lineup. Second baseman Ted Sizemore had been a great No. 2 hitter behind Lou Brock in St. Louis, but the slap hitter didn't have a great basestealer to protect here.
The trade deadline in 1977 was June 15. The Phils were in Cincinnati and the press box emptied when the Reds announced they had just traded for Mets ace Tom Seaver. Owens and Minister of Trade Hugh Alexander quietly returned to the hotel the homeward-bound Phils already had checked out of and completed a far more significant deal. The Pope sent some top prospects to the Cardinals for rightfielder Bake McBride.McBride - "Shake and Bake" - was soon leading off for a lineup that finally was stabilized. Garry Maddox, never comfortable leading off, batted No. 2. Sizemore's weak bat was moved to the back of the order.
McBride and Maddox put up numbers similar to those Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino have been putting up this season. You'll agree Mike Schmidt and Chase Utley are a fine match in the No. 3 hole. Ditto Luzinski and Howard batting cleanup. The Bull hit .309 and drove in a career-high 130 runs. Despite his troubles, Howard is on pace for 122.Like Charlie Manuel, Ozark was blessed with a versatile bench and his reserve outfield and pinch-hitting options included Jay Johnstone, Jerry Martin and Ollie Brown. His infield reserves included unselfish Terry Harmon and walking-baseball encyclopedia Davey Johnson, a pennant-winning manager in waiting. Tim McCarver caught Lefty. Bob Boone caught everybody else.
The Phillies made up for a quiet 1977 hurricane season. After the All-Star Game, they were a Category 5 baseball storm. They had cut the Cubs' lead to 2 1/2 games by taking three of four going into the break. But by July 29 they had sagged to third place, three out of the lead and had been downgraded to a Tropical Fraud.But on Aug. 23, they led the Pirates by 7 1/2 games. They had cracked the race open with the hottest stretch in franchise history, going 21-2 with a 13-game winning streak between losses to go 33 games over .500. In one stretch, they scored 10 runs in four straight games.
The Phillies' current 12-2 run and weekend sweep of the Braves is starting to look eerily similar to the '77 drive from chaser to chasee.Both teams had extreme longball power. But a complementary ability to extend innings and add on runs when the longball is lacking is a shared characteristic.
The game has changed immeasurably since 1977, making comparisons almost pointless. But good hitters are good hitters in any era. Mike Schmidt never had the kind of so-hot-it's-silly roll Chase Utley has been on so far this year. But how many of those frequent warning-track flies No. 20 hit in the Vet and similar cookie-cutter stadiums would be into the flowers and beyond in the Money Pit?If I had to pick the one Phillies lineup I would least like to face, it would be . . .
The 1977 Phillies playing in Citizens Bank Park. But that's a fantasy reach, isn't it?Charlie Manuel's team playing in the Vet, the Money Pit or even in Yellowstone Park represents a dry-mouth game for any pitching staff.
You are watching the most potent Phils lineup of my time. And yours.
It's a nice article and I agree with a lot, but with a few comments. I'll start with a broad overview of the Phillies lineups in '77 and in '08 and what numbers they produced. First, here is the '77 lineup:
RF - Bake McBride (11 Home Runs, 55 Runs Scored, 149 OPS+, 27 steals in 31 tries)
SS- Larry Bowa (.313 OBP, 32 steals in 35 tries)
3B- Mike Schmidt (38 Home Runs, 101 RBI, 151 OPS+)
LF- Greg Luzinski (39 Home Runs, 130 RBI, 156 OPS+)
1B- Rich Hebner (18 Home Runs, 62 RBI, 126 OPS+)
CF- Garry Maddox (14 Home Runs, 74 RBI, 22 steals in 28 tries)
C- Bob Boone (11 Home Runs, 66 RBI)
2B- Ted Sizemore (.345 OBP, 25 Grounded Into Double Play)
Pitcher
And here is the '08 Phillies:
SS- Jimmy Rollins (6 Home Runs, 33 Runs Scored, 14 steals in 14 tries, 110 OPS+)
CF- Shane Victorino (.347 OBP, 14 steals in 17 tries)
2B- Chase Utley (22 Home Runs, 62 RBI, 152 OPS+)
1B- Ryan Howard (19 Home Runs, 63 RBI, 105 OPS+)
LF- Pat Burrell (18 Home Runs, 47 RBI, 159 OPS+)
RF - Geoff Jenkins (
3B- Pedro Feliz (.316 OBP, 10 GIDP, 8 Home Runs, 33 RBI)
C- Carlos Ruiz (.311 OBP, 8 GIDP, 2 Home Runs, 20 RBI)
Pitcher
The '77 Phillies hit 186 Home Runs, 56 Triples, 286 Doubles, 135 steals in 203 tries (66.5% success rate), and scored 847 runs (5.23 runs per game).
The '08 Phillies are on a pace to hit 225 Home Runs, 26 Triples, 315 Doubles, 112 steals in 127 tries (88.1% success rate), and score 860 runs (5.31 runs per game).
Obviously the '77 and '08 teams have to be viewed through the prism of their respective times. Baseball in the 1970's was a game that balanced speed with power. The '77 Pirates, for example, stole 260 bases and hit 133 Home Runs. Baseball in 2008 is gradually moving towards a greater embrace of speed (home runs are down, stolen bases ought to be more frequent soon as teams shift tactics), but right now power is still where it is at. The OPS of the N.L. in '77 was .724. The OPS of the N.L. this season is .741.
That makes a good point of departure: how well did the '77 and '08 teams do compared with the rest of the league? How much did they exceed the league average? Well, the '08 Phillies have an adjusted OPS (team OPS / lg OPS = OPS+) of 108, which is second in the league after the Cubs (110 OPS+). The '77 Phillies have an OPS+ of 114, which tied them with the Cincinnati Reds. Advantage: '77 Phillies. The exceeded the league standard by a wider margin. Yes, the '08 Phillies have some nice power, but they are doing that in an era where power rules.
Okay, let's compare various aspects of each team. Speed? Well, the obvious temptation there is to award it to the '77 team. They stole 135 bases and ran 203 times during the season and hit twice as many triples as what the '08 team is projected to hit. Obviously they were faster, right? Not so fast. First off, obviously the '07 team was a little faster than '08: Victorino and Rollins are doing a nice job this year but they lack Michael Bourn and his exceptional 18 of 19 steals. The '77 team ranked fourth of twelve teams in successful steals. The '08 team ranks sixth of sixteen teams. That's pretty comparable. What pops out is the relative success rate: 88% success rate of the '08 team. The '08 team has been caught just 7 times and are on pace to be caught just 15 times this season. The '77 team was caught 68 times, which was fifth in the N.L. Sure, Bake McBride (27 for 31) and Larry Bowa (32 for 35) were great, but the rest of the team was just 76 for 137 (55%). Ted Sizemore, who hit in the #2 slot for much of the early part of the season, was caught on 11 of his 19 steal attempts.
The '08 team, even excluding Rollins and Victorino, has an impressive steal rate: 23 in 27 tries. Chase Utley is six-for-six. Eric Bruntlett, who filled in during J.Roll's stint on the DL, was six-for-seven. Jayson Werth? He's seven-for-eight. As for triples, both Victorino and J.Roll have missed time. I think that the speed numbers of the '08 are going to climb as the season progresses and you'll see the '08 team finish in the top three in the N.L. in triples and steals. Advantage: actually I'm giving it to the '08 team, narrowly.
The Vet vs. Citizens Bank: there is a big difference in terms of the stadiums the two teams play in. First, there is The Vet, the massive concrete bowl that the Phillies played three and a half decades in. The general consensus of thought is that The Vet was a park that suppressed offense and made things easier for pitchers. Citizens Bank, with its short fences, is seen as a hitters park, so the '08 team gets an artificial bump here. So you'd expect the numbers to reflect that, right? Except ...
The '77 Phillies scored 5.59 runs per game at home. They are very difficult to beat at The Vet, winning 60 of 81 games there. They averaged just 4.86 runs on the road.
So what do you think of the '08 team? Probably out-score themselves pretty heavily at Citizens Bank, right? The '08 Phillies average 5.13 runs per game at home. They average 5.59 runs on the road. Surprised? I was.
In the final analysis, it is a little too early to see how the '08 and '77 Phillies stack up to each other. It is just the middle of June and it is worth remembering that Bake McBride, who helped spark the Phillies to the '77 pennant, wasn't acquired until June 15th of '77. Will the Phillies swing a deal and bring in another bat? Will they be forced to deal someone to get pitching help? We'll have to see. My take on the '77 and '08 teams is that they defy easy explanations. The '08 team is a lot quicker and more balanced than they are given credit for, but the '77 Phillies were a more powerful group than they've been recognized for being. It is a close call but in the end ... I agree with Conlin and give it to the '08 Phillies. Let's see if they hold onto their title ...
Labels: '77, Batting, Bourn, Power-Hitting, Rollins, Speed, Victorino
Friday, June 20, 2008
Small Ball vs. Big Ball: Angels vs. Phillies Preview
Big Ball vs. Small Ball.
East Coast vs. West Coast.
Urban vs. SoCal.
Today begins a three-game series at Citizens Bank Ballpark between the Phillies and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, as the team formerly known as the California Angels and Anaheim Angels prefers to be called these days. I've very intrigued by the differences and contrasts provided by today's series. In terms of geography and culture, Philadelphia and Metro L.A. couldn't be further apart, the former being a gritty East Coast city featuring a fierce, blue-collar work ethic and artery-clogging cheesesteaks vs. the latter, a West Coast city with pretty people who dine on healthy cuisine and only healthy cuisine. The contrast in styles on the baseball diamond is astonishing too: the Phillies are probably the closest thing that the National League has to a Moneyball team, a team that emphasizes walks and home runs over bunts and steals, while the Angels are the epitome of small ball, always fighting and clawing for runs in the dirt, a delicious contrast to SoCal's effete image.
Trace the Angels small ball attitude back to their manager, Mike Scioscia, the former Dodgers catcher and Upper Darby native who brought a classically National League perspective to managing the Angels. Since taking over the Angels in 2000, Scioscia has guided the team to a 745-621 record (.545), four playoff berths ('02, '04, '05, and '07), and a World Series title in 2002. Scioscia's weapons have been bunting and stealing bases.
The 2008 Angels are an interesting crew, clearly better than the rest of the A.L. West, but still just a few games ahead of the surprising Oakland A's, whom the Angels can be expected to out-spend nearly two and a half to one this season (Angels payroll: $118 million to the A's $47 million dollar payroll). The Angels are a good team, but they feel like one that is under-achieving. Offensively, the Angels rank ninth in the fourteen team A.L. in home runs and tenth in slugging percentage. That partly helps to explain why they rank eleventh in runs scored.
What really explains the Angels struggles is this: they are really struggling at small ball this year.
What is small ball? Generally, small ball tends to be three things: 1) Bunting, with an emphasis on sacrifice bunting to move runners over; 2) Base-stealing; and 3) Clutch hitting. The '02 Angels were masters of this approach: their .290 batting average with runners in scoring position was tied for best in the A.L.; they stole 117 bases, which was third-best in the A.L.; and they led the A.L. in sacrifice hits with 49. That's a team that successfully executes a small ball approach to baseball.
The '08 Angels? Not so much. While they rank third in the A.L. in steals again, their 55 steals are off-set by the fact that they have been caught 22 times, so their 71% success rate means they aren't getting much benefit from running on the bases. Oh, and the Boston Red Sox, that Moneyball team, has more stolen bases, with 64. Surprisingly, the Angels rank twelfth in sacrifice hits with just 11. Finally, the Angels are ninth in batting average with runners in scoring position (BA/RISP) at .268, which is just a little better than the A.L. average of .267. The Angels problem is that they aren't getting guys on base: the team OBP is an awful .318. Garrett Anderson's OBP is .287. Torii Hunter, the team's marque free agent signing during the off-season, has just nine home runs and 33 RBI. Vlad Guerrero, the team's usually reliable slugger, has really struggled in '08: ten home runs and 35 RBI. Assuming that Vlad plays in 90% of the Angels games and continues at his current pace, he ought to have 80-85 RBI this season, which is terrible production from your clean-up hitter.
The Phillies are quite the contrast: the Phillies Isolated Power at the plate (Slugging Percentage minus Batting Average, which is basically Slugging Percentage without singles) is .187, which is very, very high. The Angels ISO is an atrocious .128. The big difference to me between the two teams is how the Phillies work the count harder than the Angels: the Angels 3.63 pitches per plate appearance were the fewest in the A.L., while the Phillies 3.8 P/PA is the N.L. average (typically in years past the Phillies finished #1 or #2).
While the Phillies have a lot of power at the plate (103 home runs to the Angels 61 homers) they aren't entirely without speed: Jimmy Rollins is 14-for-14 in steals and Shane Victorino is 14 of 17. The Phillies are a nice blend of speed and power as compared to the Angels reliance on speed and clutch-hitting.
The strength of the Angels is their pitching staff. The Angels have a pretty formidable rotation, although their pitching staff has been pretty average. The Angels 3.99 ERA is partly the product of really good defense. The Angels tend to pitch to contact: their 2.9 walks per game rate is one of the lowest in the American League, but their 6.0 strikeouts per game is also below the A.L. average as well.
Tonight the Angels send Ervin Santana to the mound against Adam Eaton, which is a major mismatch. Santana has been very good this season: 8-3, 3.40 ERA. His fielding independent pitching (FIP) ERA is terrific: 3.35. Santana has a nearly 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.9-to-1). He's tough to homer off of too: 0.89 HR/9. Looks like the Mets traded for the wrong Santana.
Joe Saunders goes Saturday night for the Angels against Brett Myers. Saunders record is 10-3 with a 3.06 ERA, which obscures the fact that he's not pitching particularly well. The Angels have been converting 75.6% of the balls Saunders allows to be put into play into outs, a major reason why his FIP ERA is over a run higher (4.36) than his "real" ERA. Saunders K/BB ratio is just a pedestrian 2-to-1 and he gets 4.7 strikeouts per nine innings. He also allows many more home runs (1.12 HR/9) than his compatriots.
Finally, Jered Weaver, the Angels ace hurler, takes the mound Sunday to finish the series against Cole Hamels. Weaver, who went 13-7 with a 3.91 ERA last season, is just 6-7 with a 4.73 ERA this season. Weaver is a nice illustration of the fact that won-loss records and ERAs are bad tools to measure pitchers performances upon. Weaver's numbers are virtually identical this year when compared to last year:
2007 / 2008
FIP: 4.14 / 4.13
HR/9: 0.9 / 1.2
BB/9: 2.5 / 2.4
K/9: 6.4 / 6.5
And yet the casual observer would wonder why Weaver is struggling this season after being so good last year ...
The battle between Weaver and Hamels on Sunday is going to be worth the price of admission. Young, talented pitchers, the top aces for playoff-caliber teams ...
Defensively the Angels are good, but not great. They've allowed just 16 unearned runs. Their defensive outfield is surprisingly below-average: Torii Hunter ranks 11th of 12 A.L. Centerfielders in Relative Zone Rating (RZR). Garrett Anderson and Vlad Guerrero likewise rank near the bottom in RZR in leftfield and rightfield. I expected such talented players to have much better skills. The Angels infield collectively ranks third of fourteen teams in RZR.
This will be an interesting series. Is it a World Series preview? Maybe. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see these two teams playing in October. Cheesesteaks vs. Fish Tacos.
I like the Phillies to take two of three from the Angels.
East Coast vs. West Coast.
Urban vs. SoCal.
Today begins a three-game series at Citizens Bank Ballpark between the Phillies and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, as the team formerly known as the California Angels and Anaheim Angels prefers to be called these days. I've very intrigued by the differences and contrasts provided by today's series. In terms of geography and culture, Philadelphia and Metro L.A. couldn't be further apart, the former being a gritty East Coast city featuring a fierce, blue-collar work ethic and artery-clogging cheesesteaks vs. the latter, a West Coast city with pretty people who dine on healthy cuisine and only healthy cuisine. The contrast in styles on the baseball diamond is astonishing too: the Phillies are probably the closest thing that the National League has to a Moneyball team, a team that emphasizes walks and home runs over bunts and steals, while the Angels are the epitome of small ball, always fighting and clawing for runs in the dirt, a delicious contrast to SoCal's effete image.
Trace the Angels small ball attitude back to their manager, Mike Scioscia, the former Dodgers catcher and Upper Darby native who brought a classically National League perspective to managing the Angels. Since taking over the Angels in 2000, Scioscia has guided the team to a 745-621 record (.545), four playoff berths ('02, '04, '05, and '07), and a World Series title in 2002. Scioscia's weapons have been bunting and stealing bases.
The 2008 Angels are an interesting crew, clearly better than the rest of the A.L. West, but still just a few games ahead of the surprising Oakland A's, whom the Angels can be expected to out-spend nearly two and a half to one this season (Angels payroll: $118 million to the A's $47 million dollar payroll). The Angels are a good team, but they feel like one that is under-achieving. Offensively, the Angels rank ninth in the fourteen team A.L. in home runs and tenth in slugging percentage. That partly helps to explain why they rank eleventh in runs scored.
What really explains the Angels struggles is this: they are really struggling at small ball this year.
What is small ball? Generally, small ball tends to be three things: 1) Bunting, with an emphasis on sacrifice bunting to move runners over; 2) Base-stealing; and 3) Clutch hitting. The '02 Angels were masters of this approach: their .290 batting average with runners in scoring position was tied for best in the A.L.; they stole 117 bases, which was third-best in the A.L.; and they led the A.L. in sacrifice hits with 49. That's a team that successfully executes a small ball approach to baseball.
The '08 Angels? Not so much. While they rank third in the A.L. in steals again, their 55 steals are off-set by the fact that they have been caught 22 times, so their 71% success rate means they aren't getting much benefit from running on the bases. Oh, and the Boston Red Sox, that Moneyball team, has more stolen bases, with 64. Surprisingly, the Angels rank twelfth in sacrifice hits with just 11. Finally, the Angels are ninth in batting average with runners in scoring position (BA/RISP) at .268, which is just a little better than the A.L. average of .267. The Angels problem is that they aren't getting guys on base: the team OBP is an awful .318. Garrett Anderson's OBP is .287. Torii Hunter, the team's marque free agent signing during the off-season, has just nine home runs and 33 RBI. Vlad Guerrero, the team's usually reliable slugger, has really struggled in '08: ten home runs and 35 RBI. Assuming that Vlad plays in 90% of the Angels games and continues at his current pace, he ought to have 80-85 RBI this season, which is terrible production from your clean-up hitter.
The Phillies are quite the contrast: the Phillies Isolated Power at the plate (Slugging Percentage minus Batting Average, which is basically Slugging Percentage without singles) is .187, which is very, very high. The Angels ISO is an atrocious .128. The big difference to me between the two teams is how the Phillies work the count harder than the Angels: the Angels 3.63 pitches per plate appearance were the fewest in the A.L., while the Phillies 3.8 P/PA is the N.L. average (typically in years past the Phillies finished #1 or #2).
While the Phillies have a lot of power at the plate (103 home runs to the Angels 61 homers) they aren't entirely without speed: Jimmy Rollins is 14-for-14 in steals and Shane Victorino is 14 of 17. The Phillies are a nice blend of speed and power as compared to the Angels reliance on speed and clutch-hitting.
The strength of the Angels is their pitching staff. The Angels have a pretty formidable rotation, although their pitching staff has been pretty average. The Angels 3.99 ERA is partly the product of really good defense. The Angels tend to pitch to contact: their 2.9 walks per game rate is one of the lowest in the American League, but their 6.0 strikeouts per game is also below the A.L. average as well.
Tonight the Angels send Ervin Santana to the mound against Adam Eaton, which is a major mismatch. Santana has been very good this season: 8-3, 3.40 ERA. His fielding independent pitching (FIP) ERA is terrific: 3.35. Santana has a nearly 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.9-to-1). He's tough to homer off of too: 0.89 HR/9. Looks like the Mets traded for the wrong Santana.
Joe Saunders goes Saturday night for the Angels against Brett Myers. Saunders record is 10-3 with a 3.06 ERA, which obscures the fact that he's not pitching particularly well. The Angels have been converting 75.6% of the balls Saunders allows to be put into play into outs, a major reason why his FIP ERA is over a run higher (4.36) than his "real" ERA. Saunders K/BB ratio is just a pedestrian 2-to-1 and he gets 4.7 strikeouts per nine innings. He also allows many more home runs (1.12 HR/9) than his compatriots.
Finally, Jered Weaver, the Angels ace hurler, takes the mound Sunday to finish the series against Cole Hamels. Weaver, who went 13-7 with a 3.91 ERA last season, is just 6-7 with a 4.73 ERA this season. Weaver is a nice illustration of the fact that won-loss records and ERAs are bad tools to measure pitchers performances upon. Weaver's numbers are virtually identical this year when compared to last year:
2007 / 2008
FIP: 4.14 / 4.13
HR/9: 0.9 / 1.2
BB/9: 2.5 / 2.4
K/9: 6.4 / 6.5
And yet the casual observer would wonder why Weaver is struggling this season after being so good last year ...
The battle between Weaver and Hamels on Sunday is going to be worth the price of admission. Young, talented pitchers, the top aces for playoff-caliber teams ...
Defensively the Angels are good, but not great. They've allowed just 16 unearned runs. Their defensive outfield is surprisingly below-average: Torii Hunter ranks 11th of 12 A.L. Centerfielders in Relative Zone Rating (RZR). Garrett Anderson and Vlad Guerrero likewise rank near the bottom in RZR in leftfield and rightfield. I expected such talented players to have much better skills. The Angels infield collectively ranks third of fourteen teams in RZR.
This will be an interesting series. Is it a World Series preview? Maybe. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see these two teams playing in October. Cheesesteaks vs. Fish Tacos.
I like the Phillies to take two of three from the Angels.
Labels: Batting, Eaton, Hamels, Myers, Pitching, Playoffs, Power-Hitting, Speed
Monday, June 16, 2008
Ghosts of '15: Red Sox vs. Phillies Preview
Few may remember, but I want to note that the Phillies and Red Sox have met before, prior to inter-league play, as the Red Sox and Phillies take to the field for a three game set that might be a World Series preview. These two teams squared off once before in the World Series, waaaay back in 1915, when the Phillies were led by Grover Cleveland Alexander, and the Red Sox had a roster featuring Centerfielder Tris Speaker and an unknown pitcher / hitter named Babe Ruth.
The ’15 World Series was played in the deadball era prior to the Roaring ‘20s. Boston won the Series four games to one, but out-scored the Phillies 12-10. The series featured terrific pitching from Alexander, who won Game One for the Phillies, but the Phillies were out-matched. In Game Two, with President Woodrow Wilson watching (the first U.S. President to watch a World Series game), the Red Sox won 2-1, and went on to win the final three games of the Series as well. The Phillies defeat in Game Two marked the beginning of an eleven-game post-season losing streak for the Phillies, who would also lose four consecutive games in the ’50 World Series and three consecutive games in the ’76 NLCS to the Reds before beating the Dodgers in Game One of the ’77 NLCS 7-5.
Could the ’08 World Series feature the Red Sox and Phillies once more? The way both teams are playing, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least. After obliterating the St. Louis Cardinals 20-2 on Friday night the Phillies enter this series having dropped two straight to the surprising Cardinals, but still hold a three-game lead over the Florida Marlins in the N.L. East and are playing terrific baseball. The Red Sox, meanwhile, sit two and a half games ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays in the A.L. East. Two division leaders going head-to-head.
The Red Sox are a formidable team but are lacking their big gun, DH David Ortiz (a.k.a., Big Papi), as well as pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka and Curt Schilling. Despite the absence of so many important players, the Red Sox muscle on and currently have the second-best offense in the American League (371 runs scored, 5.15 runs per game, an American League-leading .356 OBP). Losing Big Papi's bat hurts (13 home runs, 43 RBI, .234 Isolated Power - ISO* - at the plate), but the Red Sox have a diverse offense. Jacob Ellsbury, the team's lead-off hitter, does a terrific job getting on base (.373 OBP), but has a lot of speed (33 of 36 steals attempted). Kevin Youkilis, the Greek God of Walks, plays great defense at first base and sets the table very well (.376 OBP). Right now Manny Ramirez is picking up the slack: 15 home runs, 49 RBI, .248 ISO. Mike Lowell (10 home runs, 36 RBI, .224 ISO) and J.D. Drew (11 home runs, 38 RBI, .256 ISO) are playing well too. It's a powerful, deep lineup.
*ISO: .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
The Moneyball-era Red Sox aren't the Red Sox of old, stacked with bats and lacking in pitching and defense. The Red Sox play defense very well (.703 Defense Efficiency Ratio, or DER, Balls Put Into Play that are converted into outs) and they have a nasty pitching staff: 3.83 ERA (fourth-best in the A.L.). The injuries to Schilling and Matsuzaka however have stretched the Red Sox staff. This weekend they send to the mound Bartolo Colon (4-1, 3.41 ERA), rookie Justin Masterson (3-1, 2.90 ERA, 31 career innings pitched) and Jon Lester. Josh Beckett, the Red Sox best pitcher, isn't slated to take the mound in this series.
It is a testament to the Red Sox eye for talent that they've cobbled together a staff that is really pitching nicely. Colon, seemingly washed up at the start of the season, has pitched well in his starts with the Red Sox, allowing just 7 walks in 29 innings of work. Lester, slated to pitch Tuesday night against Jamie Moyer, is just a month removed from tossing a beautiful nine-inning, two walk no-hitter against the Royals that saw him strikeout nine. Once the game gets to the bullpen, Jonathan Papelbon (2.08 ERA, 19 saves) and Hideki Okajima (3.24 ERA) are a nearly unstoppable duo.
The Phillies, meanwhile, send Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick to the mound in this series. Hamels is one of the best pitchers in the N.L. (6-4, 3.27 ERA), hurling 86 strikeouts in 99 innings (7.82 K/9). It will be interesting to see how Hamels handles the Red Sox in his first start against them.
After Hamels, Moyer takes the mound against Lester tomorrow night, then Kyle Kendrick on Wednesday. Moyer and Kendrick might not strike observers as being pitchers who might have success against the Red Sox, but I like them in these games because both Kendrick and Moyer pitch to contact. The Red Sox love to work the count against pitchers, so guys like Moyer and Kendrick might have success coming in to them aggressively. Just a hunch, but Moyer and Kendrick might actually have more success against the Red Sox hitters than people think.
On the Phillies side, Chase Utley (22 home runs, 61 RBI, .401 OBP) and Pat Burrell (18 home runs, 47 RBI, .425 OBP) are tearing things up. Overall, the Phillies have the second-best offense in the N.L. (381 runs scored, 5.37 per game) and do a great job mashing the ball (.188 ISO). Like the Red Sox, the Phillies have a deep roster with lots of power. Ryan Howard, meanwhile, continues to be mired in his struggles and is a notable exception. So far in June Howard's OBP is .313 with just two home runs and 16 RBI in 14 games.
Keep your eye on Jimmy Rollins: he's had success in the past against the Red Sox (career .915 OPS against the Sox) and he's off to a nice start since returning from the D.L. So far J.Roll is 13/13 stealing bases.
More tomorrow ...
The ’15 World Series was played in the deadball era prior to the Roaring ‘20s. Boston won the Series four games to one, but out-scored the Phillies 12-10. The series featured terrific pitching from Alexander, who won Game One for the Phillies, but the Phillies were out-matched. In Game Two, with President Woodrow Wilson watching (the first U.S. President to watch a World Series game), the Red Sox won 2-1, and went on to win the final three games of the Series as well. The Phillies defeat in Game Two marked the beginning of an eleven-game post-season losing streak for the Phillies, who would also lose four consecutive games in the ’50 World Series and three consecutive games in the ’76 NLCS to the Reds before beating the Dodgers in Game One of the ’77 NLCS 7-5.
Could the ’08 World Series feature the Red Sox and Phillies once more? The way both teams are playing, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least. After obliterating the St. Louis Cardinals 20-2 on Friday night the Phillies enter this series having dropped two straight to the surprising Cardinals, but still hold a three-game lead over the Florida Marlins in the N.L. East and are playing terrific baseball. The Red Sox, meanwhile, sit two and a half games ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays in the A.L. East. Two division leaders going head-to-head.
The Red Sox are a formidable team but are lacking their big gun, DH David Ortiz (a.k.a., Big Papi), as well as pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka and Curt Schilling. Despite the absence of so many important players, the Red Sox muscle on and currently have the second-best offense in the American League (371 runs scored, 5.15 runs per game, an American League-leading .356 OBP). Losing Big Papi's bat hurts (13 home runs, 43 RBI, .234 Isolated Power - ISO* - at the plate), but the Red Sox have a diverse offense. Jacob Ellsbury, the team's lead-off hitter, does a terrific job getting on base (.373 OBP), but has a lot of speed (33 of 36 steals attempted). Kevin Youkilis, the Greek God of Walks, plays great defense at first base and sets the table very well (.376 OBP). Right now Manny Ramirez is picking up the slack: 15 home runs, 49 RBI, .248 ISO. Mike Lowell (10 home runs, 36 RBI, .224 ISO) and J.D. Drew (11 home runs, 38 RBI, .256 ISO) are playing well too. It's a powerful, deep lineup.
*ISO: .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
The Moneyball-era Red Sox aren't the Red Sox of old, stacked with bats and lacking in pitching and defense. The Red Sox play defense very well (.703 Defense Efficiency Ratio, or DER, Balls Put Into Play that are converted into outs) and they have a nasty pitching staff: 3.83 ERA (fourth-best in the A.L.). The injuries to Schilling and Matsuzaka however have stretched the Red Sox staff. This weekend they send to the mound Bartolo Colon (4-1, 3.41 ERA), rookie Justin Masterson (3-1, 2.90 ERA, 31 career innings pitched) and Jon Lester. Josh Beckett, the Red Sox best pitcher, isn't slated to take the mound in this series.
It is a testament to the Red Sox eye for talent that they've cobbled together a staff that is really pitching nicely. Colon, seemingly washed up at the start of the season, has pitched well in his starts with the Red Sox, allowing just 7 walks in 29 innings of work. Lester, slated to pitch Tuesday night against Jamie Moyer, is just a month removed from tossing a beautiful nine-inning, two walk no-hitter against the Royals that saw him strikeout nine. Once the game gets to the bullpen, Jonathan Papelbon (2.08 ERA, 19 saves) and Hideki Okajima (3.24 ERA) are a nearly unstoppable duo.
The Phillies, meanwhile, send Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick to the mound in this series. Hamels is one of the best pitchers in the N.L. (6-4, 3.27 ERA), hurling 86 strikeouts in 99 innings (7.82 K/9). It will be interesting to see how Hamels handles the Red Sox in his first start against them.
After Hamels, Moyer takes the mound against Lester tomorrow night, then Kyle Kendrick on Wednesday. Moyer and Kendrick might not strike observers as being pitchers who might have success against the Red Sox, but I like them in these games because both Kendrick and Moyer pitch to contact. The Red Sox love to work the count against pitchers, so guys like Moyer and Kendrick might have success coming in to them aggressively. Just a hunch, but Moyer and Kendrick might actually have more success against the Red Sox hitters than people think.
On the Phillies side, Chase Utley (22 home runs, 61 RBI, .401 OBP) and Pat Burrell (18 home runs, 47 RBI, .425 OBP) are tearing things up. Overall, the Phillies have the second-best offense in the N.L. (381 runs scored, 5.37 per game) and do a great job mashing the ball (.188 ISO). Like the Red Sox, the Phillies have a deep roster with lots of power. Ryan Howard, meanwhile, continues to be mired in his struggles and is a notable exception. So far in June Howard's OBP is .313 with just two home runs and 16 RBI in 14 games.
Keep your eye on Jimmy Rollins: he's had success in the past against the Red Sox (career .915 OPS against the Sox) and he's off to a nice start since returning from the D.L. So far J.Roll is 13/13 stealing bases.
More tomorrow ...
Labels: Batting, Hamels, Kenderick, Moyer, Pitching
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Phillies - Braves Series Preview
Sorry for the late afternoon post, but I've been busy. Better late than never, right? Alright, five things to keep in mind about the Braves & Phillies series tonight ...
1. The Braves are a lot better than their 19-18 record suggests. I like to follow teams Pythagorean Win-Loss records and compare them to their 'real' records to predict which teams are lucky and due for a fall or resurgence. Looking at records so far this season I'm seeing the Braves as a team that is poised to make a resurgence. As of this morning, this is where the N.L. East standings sit:
1. Florida: 23-15
2. Philadelphia: 21-18
3. New York: 19-17
4. Atlanta: 19-18
5. Washington: 16-23
Here are the Pythagorean Win-Loss records:
1. Atlanta: 23-14
2. Philadelphia: 21-18
3. Florida: 20-18
4. New York: 19-17
5. Washington: 16-23
The Mets, Phillies and Nationals are all hitting their pythagorean win-loss records right on the mark, but the Marlins are over-performing by three games and the Braves are under-performing by four. Why is that? Well, the Braves have a terrible record in close (i.e., games decided by two runs or less) games at 4-10. When they start getting those break landing their way, I think that the Braves will start winning and will validate my prediction that they'll win the N.L. East in 2008.
2. The Braves have a darn good pitching staff. Of the Phillies five starters, four boast ERAs of 4.93 or above:
Cole Hamels: 3.36
Kyle Kendrick: 4.93
Jamie Moyer: 5.02
Brett Myers: 5.33
Adam Eaton: 5.40
lower than 3.00. Compare that to the Braves starters: Tim Hudson (2.54) and John Smoltz (2.00) have ERAsJair Jurrgens, who tossed just thirty innings in relief for the Tigers last season, is 4-3 with a 3.10 ERA. Braves pitchers rank fourth in the N.L. in strikeouts per nine innings (7.26), while the Phillies rank twelfth (6.09). The Braves also rank first (or last, depending on how you view it ... let's just say "best") in OPS against at .664.
Bizarrely, Phillies starters have turned in slightly more (19 to 18) Quality Starts (a start where a pitcher tossed six or more innings and surrenders three or fewer runs) than the Braves. Go figure.
3. The Braves field well. Their fielding percentage is just seventh in the N.L. to the Phillies fourteenth, but they were also second in Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER), meaning that Braves fielders converted balls put into play into outs 71.8% of the time, second to just the Cubs at 72%.
4. The Braves can hit. They have a better OPS than the Phillies (.789 to .755), a slightly better batting average with runners in scoring position (.250 to .249 BA/RISP), and have scored more runs per game (4.89 to 4.74).
5. The Braves are going to sweep this series. Sorry, Phillies fans, but the Braves are a sleeping giant.
(13) comments
1. The Braves are a lot better than their 19-18 record suggests. I like to follow teams Pythagorean Win-Loss records and compare them to their 'real' records to predict which teams are lucky and due for a fall or resurgence. Looking at records so far this season I'm seeing the Braves as a team that is poised to make a resurgence. As of this morning, this is where the N.L. East standings sit:
1. Florida: 23-15
2. Philadelphia: 21-18
3. New York: 19-17
4. Atlanta: 19-18
5. Washington: 16-23
Here are the Pythagorean Win-Loss records:
1. Atlanta: 23-14
2. Philadelphia: 21-18
3. Florida: 20-18
4. New York: 19-17
5. Washington: 16-23
The Mets, Phillies and Nationals are all hitting their pythagorean win-loss records right on the mark, but the Marlins are over-performing by three games and the Braves are under-performing by four. Why is that? Well, the Braves have a terrible record in close (i.e., games decided by two runs or less) games at 4-10. When they start getting those break landing their way, I think that the Braves will start winning and will validate my prediction that they'll win the N.L. East in 2008.
2. The Braves have a darn good pitching staff. Of the Phillies five starters, four boast ERAs of 4.93 or above:
Cole Hamels: 3.36
Kyle Kendrick: 4.93
Jamie Moyer: 5.02
Brett Myers: 5.33
Adam Eaton: 5.40
lower than 3.00. Compare that to the Braves starters: Tim Hudson (2.54) and John Smoltz (2.00) have ERAsJair Jurrgens, who tossed just thirty innings in relief for the Tigers last season, is 4-3 with a 3.10 ERA. Braves pitchers rank fourth in the N.L. in strikeouts per nine innings (7.26), while the Phillies rank twelfth (6.09). The Braves also rank first (or last, depending on how you view it ... let's just say "best") in OPS against at .664.
Bizarrely, Phillies starters have turned in slightly more (19 to 18) Quality Starts (a start where a pitcher tossed six or more innings and surrenders three or fewer runs) than the Braves. Go figure.
3. The Braves field well. Their fielding percentage is just seventh in the N.L. to the Phillies fourteenth, but they were also second in Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER), meaning that Braves fielders converted balls put into play into outs 71.8% of the time, second to just the Cubs at 72%.
4. The Braves can hit. They have a better OPS than the Phillies (.789 to .755), a slightly better batting average with runners in scoring position (.250 to .249 BA/RISP), and have scored more runs per game (4.89 to 4.74).
5. The Braves are going to sweep this series. Sorry, Phillies fans, but the Braves are a sleeping giant.
Labels: Batting, Braves, Eaton, Fielding, Hamels, Kenderick, Moyer, Myers, Pitching
Monday, March 03, 2008
Spring Baseball
Spring Training is under way and the Phillies are 2-2 with a 7-7 tie with the Yankees thrown into the mix. Here are some preliminary observations …
Pitching … Thus far the Phillies team ERA sits at a hefty 6.25. The team has tossed 36 innings and surrendered 25 earned runs (I’m not including the numbers from yesterday’s tie in the mix). They’ve surrendered 2.00 home runs per nine innings, 4.50 walks per nine innings and 6.50 strikeouts per nine innings and have a 1.44 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Two pitching performances have stood out as being outstanding:
Jamie Moyer, the ageless wonder, hurled three innings on the first day of spring training and surrendered just one hit, didn’t allow a run, a home run or a walk and struck-out three hitters. Not bad.
Travis Blackley, the Phillies Rule 5 Draftee fighting for a roster spot, tossed three shut-out innings as well, allowing just on hit, no walks or home runs, and struck-out two hitters. This performance thus far strongly suggests that Blackley is in the running to make the Phillies Opening Day roster and stay with the team in 2008.
Carlos Carrasco, the Phillies highly-touted rookie, tossed three innings and struck-out three, allowing just three hits and no runs against the Yankees. Nice job.
Performances that ought to worry Phillies fans … Temporary closer Tom Gordon has pitched two-thirds of an inning and allowed two runs on two hits and a walk … In two innings of work, Adam Eaton surrendered five hits (one a home run) and two runs.
As yet there isn’t a whole lot of data to extract positive clues from, but the preliminary outcomes suggest that the Phillies pitching is going to have some weak points.
Over on the offensive side, many Phillies hitters are off to big starts. Carlos Ruiz is hitting .667 on four-of-six at the plate with two doubles and an RBI. Pedro Feliz is hitting .571 on four-of-seven hitting with two doubles and an RBI. Ryan Howard is four-for-ten with two doubles and a home run and three RBI, while Chase Utley is three-for-eight with three doubles and two RBI.
Some Phillies are struggling – Pat Burrell is one-for-six and Jimmy Rollins is one-for-seven – but these are traditionally slow-starting hitters. Wes Helms – zero-for-six – has lost his position as the third baseman and won’t mount much of an argument to reclaim it with this spring performance.
Quick Eagles discussion … The Birds have made some nice moves in free agency, inking Chris Clemons and Assante Samuel to deals to strengthen the defensive unit. Samuel is a real shut-down corner who will strengthen the Eagles pass-rush by locking down wideouts. I hope the Eagles resist the temptation to deal Lito Shepard and keep him and Sheldon Brown to play next to Samuel. Having three Pro Bowl quality cornerbacks can’t hurt in a division where you play Plaxico Burress and T.O., can it? Clemons is a little under-sized and may not be able to fight through the rigors on the NFL regular season as a starter, but the team seemed committed to a rotation-style strategy on the defensive line … I’ve been very impressed by the splash that the Cleveland Browns have made this off-season, keeping Derek Anderson and Jamal Lewis, their quarterback and running back respectively, and acquiring game-breaking wideout Donte Stallworth, the former Eagle. The Eagles – Browns game this year is going to be a big, big battle.
(2) comments
Pitching … Thus far the Phillies team ERA sits at a hefty 6.25. The team has tossed 36 innings and surrendered 25 earned runs (I’m not including the numbers from yesterday’s tie in the mix). They’ve surrendered 2.00 home runs per nine innings, 4.50 walks per nine innings and 6.50 strikeouts per nine innings and have a 1.44 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Two pitching performances have stood out as being outstanding:
Jamie Moyer, the ageless wonder, hurled three innings on the first day of spring training and surrendered just one hit, didn’t allow a run, a home run or a walk and struck-out three hitters. Not bad.
Travis Blackley, the Phillies Rule 5 Draftee fighting for a roster spot, tossed three shut-out innings as well, allowing just on hit, no walks or home runs, and struck-out two hitters. This performance thus far strongly suggests that Blackley is in the running to make the Phillies Opening Day roster and stay with the team in 2008.
Carlos Carrasco, the Phillies highly-touted rookie, tossed three innings and struck-out three, allowing just three hits and no runs against the Yankees. Nice job.
Performances that ought to worry Phillies fans … Temporary closer Tom Gordon has pitched two-thirds of an inning and allowed two runs on two hits and a walk … In two innings of work, Adam Eaton surrendered five hits (one a home run) and two runs.
As yet there isn’t a whole lot of data to extract positive clues from, but the preliminary outcomes suggest that the Phillies pitching is going to have some weak points.
Over on the offensive side, many Phillies hitters are off to big starts. Carlos Ruiz is hitting .667 on four-of-six at the plate with two doubles and an RBI. Pedro Feliz is hitting .571 on four-of-seven hitting with two doubles and an RBI. Ryan Howard is four-for-ten with two doubles and a home run and three RBI, while Chase Utley is three-for-eight with three doubles and two RBI.
Some Phillies are struggling – Pat Burrell is one-for-six and Jimmy Rollins is one-for-seven – but these are traditionally slow-starting hitters. Wes Helms – zero-for-six – has lost his position as the third baseman and won’t mount much of an argument to reclaim it with this spring performance.
Quick Eagles discussion … The Birds have made some nice moves in free agency, inking Chris Clemons and Assante Samuel to deals to strengthen the defensive unit. Samuel is a real shut-down corner who will strengthen the Eagles pass-rush by locking down wideouts. I hope the Eagles resist the temptation to deal Lito Shepard and keep him and Sheldon Brown to play next to Samuel. Having three Pro Bowl quality cornerbacks can’t hurt in a division where you play Plaxico Burress and T.O., can it? Clemons is a little under-sized and may not be able to fight through the rigors on the NFL regular season as a starter, but the team seemed committed to a rotation-style strategy on the defensive line … I’ve been very impressed by the splash that the Cleveland Browns have made this off-season, keeping Derek Anderson and Jamal Lewis, their quarterback and running back respectively, and acquiring game-breaking wideout Donte Stallworth, the former Eagle. The Eagles – Browns game this year is going to be a big, big battle.
Labels: Batting, Blackley, Burrell, Carrasco, Gordon, Helms, Howard, Moyer, Pitching, Rollins, Spring Training, State of the Phillies
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Anti-1964?
Is 2007 shaping up to be the anti-1964 for the Phillies. Too far back, too far out of it, the Phillies have begun to climb into the playoff race. I checked out Baseball Prospectus’ playoff odds this morning and discovered that the Phillies now stand a 42% of making the playoffs, an improvement over just a few days ago.
Playoff Odds:
Mets: 95.4%
D-Backs: 76.3%
Cubs: 71.4%
Padres: 69.9%
Phillies: 42.2%
Brewers: 28.8%
Dodgers: 13.2%
Rockies: 1.8%
At this juncture the Phillies are fighting a two-pronged offensive, trying to catch the Mets for the N.L. East, and trying to catch the Padres / D-Backs for the wildcard. As I watch this playoff race unfold, I wonder if the Diamondbacks might end up being the team that the Phillies are pitted against for the wildcard. The Padres play a soft schedule down the stretch and the D-backs are forced to match up with the Dodgers and Rockies. I could see the end of the season come down to the D-Backs and the Rockies series on September 28-30.
Anyway, this playoff run has been exceptional. The Phillies are currently riding a six game winning streak and have survived major pitching woes these last few days, from a bad return start yesterday from Cole Hamels (3 IP, 3 Runs) to a melt-down by the Phillies bullpen Monday night. Meanwhile, the Mets have dropped five consecutive games and look like a sinking ship. Can the Phillies luck continue?
A few odds ‘n ends bits of information … The Phillies lead the N.L. in runs scored in September with 97 runs, three more than the Brewers … The Phillies are second in stolen bases with 20, 2 fewer than the Dodgers. Impressively, the Phillies have been caught just once this month, a 95% success rate … the Phillies, conversely are 13 th in ERA. This team continues to win with offense, offense and offense.
(2) comments
Playoff Odds:
Mets: 95.4%
D-Backs: 76.3%
Cubs: 71.4%
Padres: 69.9%
Phillies: 42.2%
Brewers: 28.8%
Dodgers: 13.2%
Rockies: 1.8%
At this juncture the Phillies are fighting a two-pronged offensive, trying to catch the Mets for the N.L. East, and trying to catch the Padres / D-Backs for the wildcard. As I watch this playoff race unfold, I wonder if the Diamondbacks might end up being the team that the Phillies are pitted against for the wildcard. The Padres play a soft schedule down the stretch and the D-backs are forced to match up with the Dodgers and Rockies. I could see the end of the season come down to the D-Backs and the Rockies series on September 28-30.
Anyway, this playoff run has been exceptional. The Phillies are currently riding a six game winning streak and have survived major pitching woes these last few days, from a bad return start yesterday from Cole Hamels (3 IP, 3 Runs) to a melt-down by the Phillies bullpen Monday night. Meanwhile, the Mets have dropped five consecutive games and look like a sinking ship. Can the Phillies luck continue?
A few odds ‘n ends bits of information … The Phillies lead the N.L. in runs scored in September with 97 runs, three more than the Brewers … The Phillies are second in stolen bases with 20, 2 fewer than the Dodgers. Impressively, the Phillies have been caught just once this month, a 95% success rate … the Phillies, conversely are 13 th in ERA. This team continues to win with offense, offense and offense.
Labels: Base-Stealing, Batting, Hamels, Odds 'n Ends, Pitching, Playoffs, Rotation, Speed
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Pat the Bat
Despite their best efforts to the contrary the Phillies actually won last night's game against the Florida Marlins despite a horrific ninth-inning meltdown that saw Brett Myers allow four runs and some terrible defensive work by Carlos Ruiz, who ought to have tagged Hanley Ramirez out at the plate to end the game, but did not. Despite their best efforts to lose the game, the Phillies dug-out a 8-7 win, but it was an ugly, ugly win that raises many more questions about the Phillies than it answers.
I decided today to take a quick … emphasis on quick … look at the performance of Pat Burrell thus far this year. After a slow start – one home run in April, in 72 At-Bats – Burrell has picked things up and has hit four home runs in May. Not exactly on a tear, but vastly improving himself. The interesting thing about Burrell’s performance thus far in 2007 is that while he is getting a lot of heat from critics he really is playing pretty well. In many respects, this is one of his finer seasons.
Let’s start with walks. Pat Burrell is a bases on balls machine:
BB/PA
2004: .146
2005: .148
2006: .173
2007: .218
That tremendous ability to draw walks is the reason why his On-Base-Percentage (OBP) is an astonishing .418. How many power hitters draw more walks than strikeouts?
Has Burrell lost any pop? I don’t think so. His slow start in terms of home runs ignores the fact that he’s hit eight doubles as well and his Isolated Power at the plate is .205, off of his .244 from 2006 and his .223, but still pretty good and well above the league average. He’s still a player with a lot of pop in his stroke.
Thus far this season Burrell is hitting well in the clutch, hitting .303, compared to last season’s .222. Believe in clutch hitting or not, but that’s a factor.
Finally, Burrell is actually a better contributor – narrowly – to the Phillies this season than in 2005 or 2006. In 2005 he had 110 Runs Created. At his current pace he’ll have 113. Despite all of the attention given to Jimmy Rollins and to Shane Victorino’s running, Burrell is a better contributor to the Phillies offense:
RC27:
Rowand: 7.61
Utley: 7.52
Burrell: 7.20
Rollins: 5.97
Victorino: 5.42
Alright, tomorrow we'll talk a little about Jamie Moyer.
(3) comments
I decided today to take a quick … emphasis on quick … look at the performance of Pat Burrell thus far this year. After a slow start – one home run in April, in 72 At-Bats – Burrell has picked things up and has hit four home runs in May. Not exactly on a tear, but vastly improving himself. The interesting thing about Burrell’s performance thus far in 2007 is that while he is getting a lot of heat from critics he really is playing pretty well. In many respects, this is one of his finer seasons.
Let’s start with walks. Pat Burrell is a bases on balls machine:
BB/PA
2004: .146
2005: .148
2006: .173
2007: .218
That tremendous ability to draw walks is the reason why his On-Base-Percentage (OBP) is an astonishing .418. How many power hitters draw more walks than strikeouts?
Has Burrell lost any pop? I don’t think so. His slow start in terms of home runs ignores the fact that he’s hit eight doubles as well and his Isolated Power at the plate is .205, off of his .244 from 2006 and his .223, but still pretty good and well above the league average. He’s still a player with a lot of pop in his stroke.
Thus far this season Burrell is hitting well in the clutch, hitting .303, compared to last season’s .222. Believe in clutch hitting or not, but that’s a factor.
Finally, Burrell is actually a better contributor – narrowly – to the Phillies this season than in 2005 or 2006. In 2005 he had 110 Runs Created. At his current pace he’ll have 113. Despite all of the attention given to Jimmy Rollins and to Shane Victorino’s running, Burrell is a better contributor to the Phillies offense:
RC27:
Rowand: 7.61
Utley: 7.52
Burrell: 7.20
Rollins: 5.97
Victorino: 5.42
Alright, tomorrow we'll talk a little about Jamie Moyer.
Labels: Batting, Burrell, Power-Hitting
Monday, April 23, 2007
What's Wrong With the Phillies?, Part I: Clutch Hitting
We'll lead-off with a little discussion of the Phillies 2-1 series victory over the Cincinnati Reds, which concluded with a 9-3 win yesterday. Were it not for a horrific collapse by closer Tom Gordon on Friday night that transformed a 1-0 lead into a 2-1 loss, the Phillies would have emerged with a sweep and would be 7-10 right now, within striking distance of a .500 record.
The Phillies, by the way, will have to go 5-3 to finish the month to have a 11-14 record, which is basically what they've had the last two Aprils (10-14).
It was basically a good weekend for the Phillies, topped off by Cole Hamels stunning complete-game, 15-strikeout dominaton of the Reds on Saturday night. Aside from a fluke home run, Hamels utterly dominated the Reds lineup, mixing curveballs and changeups with his blazing hot fastball. It was one of the most dominating performances I've seen a pitcher hurl. The highlight of the game was the dramatic 5-4-3 triple play, the first one the Phillies have turned in eight years and the first in the majors in 2007. Finally some good glovework to go along with a nice pitching performance.
Back to Hamels. How good is he right now? For every walk he allows he's throwing five and a half strikeouts. 33 strikeouts and six walks. With Myers in the bullpen, Hamels is the Phillies best pitcher without a doubt. This is his opportunity to show the baseball world that he's a dominant hurler. Alright, let's get to today's topic ... I am watching Baseball Tonight the other day and I hear John Kruk complaining about the Phillies inability to drive in runners in scoring position. To hear Kruk tell it, the Phillies overriding Achilles heel, what is killing the team the most, is their inability to drive in runners from second and third.
There are a lot of reasons why the Phillies are struggling right now. Tomorrow we are going to talk about two that are pretty obvious: starting pitching (not as good as advertised, though getting better: see, Hamels, Cole) and the bullpen (as lousy as everyone feared: see, Gordon, Tom). These reasons, not the Phillies inability to drive in runners sitting on base, are the reasons why the Phillies enter the latter half of the month of April with a 6-11 record.
Clutch hitting.
Long one of the cherished beliefs held by traditionalists, clutch hitting’s very existence is a cherished belief, an article of faith held by major leaguers. When the game is on the line, the stars shined. It made sense, until a researcher at SmithKline French named Dick Cramer used the company computers at night to prove that clutch hitting didn’t exist. (see, Moneyball, page 79) As Baseball Between the Numbers states: “Sabremetricians have conducted dozens, if not hundreds, of studies on clutch hitting, going back to Dick Cramer … All of them have come to the same conclusion: Clutch-hitting ability either doesn’t exist at all or is so rare that it is hardly worth talking about.” (see, page 15) I agree with that assessment and want to make a few observations about what these facts mean for the Phillies:
-Clutch-hitting is important for some teams, like the L.A. Dodgers or the Anaheim Angels or the Colorado Rockies. Teams built around base-stealing, bunting and all of that fun stuff. In 2006, for example, the Rockies hit 157 home runs, under the N.L. average of 178 (an amazing stat given how exceptionally friendly Coors Field is to home run hitters), but led the N.L. in sacrifice hits (a.k.a., bunts) with 119. The Dodgers had 153 homers, but stole a lot of bases – 128, 33 more than the N.L. average of 95. Both teams relied on their leadoff guys to get on base, then the Rockies bunted them over while the Dodgers had them steal second or third, and relied on the RBI guys to drive them in with timely hits. The Rockies did not particularly do this well – their .267 BA/RISP is just .003 better than the N.L. average, and partly accounts for why the Rockies scored just 813 runs, despite having 1,518 At-Bats with runners in scoring position, best in the N.L. The Dodgers excelled at this and were rewarded handsomely, hitting .286, which was by far the best in the N.L. (the Braves were second with .275) and accounts for why the small-balling Dodgers scored 820 runs in 2006.
(The Angels, by the way, looked like a clone of the Dodgers statistically…)
The Phillies followed the opposite tack offensively. They hit 216 home runs, second-best in the N.L., stole just 92 bases and sac bunted just 57 times. The Phillies, to put it bluntly, sucked at driving in runners in scoring position, hitting just .255, which was better than the Reds, Nats and Astros. Didn’t hurt them offensively though. They scored 865 runs in 2006, which was the best in the N.L.
Why? I’ve made this point before – so cover your ears if you’ve heard it – but small-ball teams need to build links in a chain to score runs. Gotta get on base, gotta steal second base, gotta get a good hit up the middle to round third and run for home … Lots of thing have to click to score one run. The Phillies? Let’s see … Jimmy Rollins strikes out, Shane Victorino flies out, Chase Utley walks and Ryan Howard hits a two-run home run. That’s two runs right there. The Dodgers have to have Furcal and Garciaparra and Kent all clicking together. I’m reminded of the scene in the movie Heat where Jon Voight warns Robert DeNiro that Al Pacino’s cop has lots of chances to catch DeNiro while DeNiro will lose if he slips up. “He can hit or miss,” Voight warns, “You can’t miss once.” The Phillies can hit or miss, they can take their shots at will and rely that sooner or later things will click. The Dodgers (and the Rockies and the Angels) can’t afford to miss. An out is poison, a base not taken is a disaster, an RBI lost is a fatal failure. The Dodgers are DeNiro's master thief, unable to make a mistake; while the Phillies are Al Pacino's cop, someone who can patiently bide their time, waiting for their opportunity to land the killer blow.
So the Phillies success in 2006 suggests that clutch-hitting is vastly, vastly over-rated. If it mattered then why did one of the worst clutch-hitting teams in the N.L. score the most runs? Why does it matter now?
Answer: It Doesn’t. As I write this the Phillies have scored 4.46 runs per game, which is pretty good. Better than the league average (4.22) and good enough for sixth in the N.L. And they are struggling in terms of clutch hitting, batting just .191 BA/RISP … .191 is bad too … The league average is .242 and just two teams trail the Phillies: the Pirates (.178) and the Nats (.168). Yet the Phillies have opportunities to score runs.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers keep relying on that clutch hitting. Their .264 BA/RISP is fourth-best in the N.L., and yet they are just a little above the league average for runs scored with 4.40. The real difference between the Dodgers and Phillies is that the Phillies have .139 Isolated Power at the plate, while the Dodgers are .124, behind the league average of .135. That’s the Phillies bread-and-butter and they aren’t doing particularly well at it. I blame the weather, which has thrown many of the Phillies off their home run stride. Wait a few weeks and watch the balls sail off the Phillies bats and see the Phillies close the offensive gap with the Mets, the N.L.’s powerhouse at 5.85 runs per game. So maybe the weather is the real issue here, and not the Phillies struggles.
As an aside, I’d like to note who is hitting well in the clutch: Shane Victorino is hitting .429 with runners on second and/or third. Well done. Pat Burrell, that target of ridicule and shame by many fans, is a .357 hitter in the clutch. Chase Utley? .077 … That is no misprint: .077 …
Oh., I use the terms “clutch-hitting” interchangeably with “batting average with runners in scoring position” for this article. This is a little inaccurate because clutch-hitting is really defined as hitting in later innings with runners on … I used the word “clutch” because many treat it as being interchangeable and … well, I’d have gotten carpal-tunnel syndrome if I bothered to computate the numbers otherwise.
Tomorrow, pitching. Probably talk about Cole Hamels again. I am eager to see what Adam Eaton will do against the Astros hitting tonight.
(0) comments
The Phillies, by the way, will have to go 5-3 to finish the month to have a 11-14 record, which is basically what they've had the last two Aprils (10-14).
It was basically a good weekend for the Phillies, topped off by Cole Hamels stunning complete-game, 15-strikeout dominaton of the Reds on Saturday night. Aside from a fluke home run, Hamels utterly dominated the Reds lineup, mixing curveballs and changeups with his blazing hot fastball. It was one of the most dominating performances I've seen a pitcher hurl. The highlight of the game was the dramatic 5-4-3 triple play, the first one the Phillies have turned in eight years and the first in the majors in 2007. Finally some good glovework to go along with a nice pitching performance.
Back to Hamels. How good is he right now? For every walk he allows he's throwing five and a half strikeouts. 33 strikeouts and six walks. With Myers in the bullpen, Hamels is the Phillies best pitcher without a doubt. This is his opportunity to show the baseball world that he's a dominant hurler. Alright, let's get to today's topic ... I am watching Baseball Tonight the other day and I hear John Kruk complaining about the Phillies inability to drive in runners in scoring position. To hear Kruk tell it, the Phillies overriding Achilles heel, what is killing the team the most, is their inability to drive in runners from second and third.
There are a lot of reasons why the Phillies are struggling right now. Tomorrow we are going to talk about two that are pretty obvious: starting pitching (not as good as advertised, though getting better: see, Hamels, Cole) and the bullpen (as lousy as everyone feared: see, Gordon, Tom). These reasons, not the Phillies inability to drive in runners sitting on base, are the reasons why the Phillies enter the latter half of the month of April with a 6-11 record.
Clutch hitting.
Long one of the cherished beliefs held by traditionalists, clutch hitting’s very existence is a cherished belief, an article of faith held by major leaguers. When the game is on the line, the stars shined. It made sense, until a researcher at SmithKline French named Dick Cramer used the company computers at night to prove that clutch hitting didn’t exist. (see, Moneyball, page 79) As Baseball Between the Numbers states: “Sabremetricians have conducted dozens, if not hundreds, of studies on clutch hitting, going back to Dick Cramer … All of them have come to the same conclusion: Clutch-hitting ability either doesn’t exist at all or is so rare that it is hardly worth talking about.” (see, page 15) I agree with that assessment and want to make a few observations about what these facts mean for the Phillies:
-Clutch-hitting is important for some teams, like the L.A. Dodgers or the Anaheim Angels or the Colorado Rockies. Teams built around base-stealing, bunting and all of that fun stuff. In 2006, for example, the Rockies hit 157 home runs, under the N.L. average of 178 (an amazing stat given how exceptionally friendly Coors Field is to home run hitters), but led the N.L. in sacrifice hits (a.k.a., bunts) with 119. The Dodgers had 153 homers, but stole a lot of bases – 128, 33 more than the N.L. average of 95. Both teams relied on their leadoff guys to get on base, then the Rockies bunted them over while the Dodgers had them steal second or third, and relied on the RBI guys to drive them in with timely hits. The Rockies did not particularly do this well – their .267 BA/RISP is just .003 better than the N.L. average, and partly accounts for why the Rockies scored just 813 runs, despite having 1,518 At-Bats with runners in scoring position, best in the N.L. The Dodgers excelled at this and were rewarded handsomely, hitting .286, which was by far the best in the N.L. (the Braves were second with .275) and accounts for why the small-balling Dodgers scored 820 runs in 2006.
(The Angels, by the way, looked like a clone of the Dodgers statistically…)
The Phillies followed the opposite tack offensively. They hit 216 home runs, second-best in the N.L., stole just 92 bases and sac bunted just 57 times. The Phillies, to put it bluntly, sucked at driving in runners in scoring position, hitting just .255, which was better than the Reds, Nats and Astros. Didn’t hurt them offensively though. They scored 865 runs in 2006, which was the best in the N.L.
Why? I’ve made this point before – so cover your ears if you’ve heard it – but small-ball teams need to build links in a chain to score runs. Gotta get on base, gotta steal second base, gotta get a good hit up the middle to round third and run for home … Lots of thing have to click to score one run. The Phillies? Let’s see … Jimmy Rollins strikes out, Shane Victorino flies out, Chase Utley walks and Ryan Howard hits a two-run home run. That’s two runs right there. The Dodgers have to have Furcal and Garciaparra and Kent all clicking together. I’m reminded of the scene in the movie Heat where Jon Voight warns Robert DeNiro that Al Pacino’s cop has lots of chances to catch DeNiro while DeNiro will lose if he slips up. “He can hit or miss,” Voight warns, “You can’t miss once.” The Phillies can hit or miss, they can take their shots at will and rely that sooner or later things will click. The Dodgers (and the Rockies and the Angels) can’t afford to miss. An out is poison, a base not taken is a disaster, an RBI lost is a fatal failure. The Dodgers are DeNiro's master thief, unable to make a mistake; while the Phillies are Al Pacino's cop, someone who can patiently bide their time, waiting for their opportunity to land the killer blow.
So the Phillies success in 2006 suggests that clutch-hitting is vastly, vastly over-rated. If it mattered then why did one of the worst clutch-hitting teams in the N.L. score the most runs? Why does it matter now?
Answer: It Doesn’t. As I write this the Phillies have scored 4.46 runs per game, which is pretty good. Better than the league average (4.22) and good enough for sixth in the N.L. And they are struggling in terms of clutch hitting, batting just .191 BA/RISP … .191 is bad too … The league average is .242 and just two teams trail the Phillies: the Pirates (.178) and the Nats (.168). Yet the Phillies have opportunities to score runs.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers keep relying on that clutch hitting. Their .264 BA/RISP is fourth-best in the N.L., and yet they are just a little above the league average for runs scored with 4.40. The real difference between the Dodgers and Phillies is that the Phillies have .139 Isolated Power at the plate, while the Dodgers are .124, behind the league average of .135. That’s the Phillies bread-and-butter and they aren’t doing particularly well at it. I blame the weather, which has thrown many of the Phillies off their home run stride. Wait a few weeks and watch the balls sail off the Phillies bats and see the Phillies close the offensive gap with the Mets, the N.L.’s powerhouse at 5.85 runs per game. So maybe the weather is the real issue here, and not the Phillies struggles.
As an aside, I’d like to note who is hitting well in the clutch: Shane Victorino is hitting .429 with runners on second and/or third. Well done. Pat Burrell, that target of ridicule and shame by many fans, is a .357 hitter in the clutch. Chase Utley? .077 … That is no misprint: .077 …
Oh., I use the terms “clutch-hitting” interchangeably with “batting average with runners in scoring position” for this article. This is a little inaccurate because clutch-hitting is really defined as hitting in later innings with runners on … I used the word “clutch” because many treat it as being interchangeable and … well, I’d have gotten carpal-tunnel syndrome if I bothered to computate the numbers otherwise.
Tomorrow, pitching. Probably talk about Cole Hamels again. I am eager to see what Adam Eaton will do against the Astros hitting tonight.
Labels: Base-Stealing, Batting, Bunting, Burrell, Clutch-Hitting, Speed, Utley, Victorino
Monday, March 12, 2007
2007 Phillies Season Preview
Instead of doing usual, massive three-part season preview that rehashes things we already talked about in my season in review last year, I am going to write a single look ahead at the Phillies 2007 season and hopefully cover some new ground. We start with …
I. The Starting Rotation. Undoubtedly the new Phillies rotation is a good deal stronger than it was in 2006 or any season in recent memory. This is very good news because the 2007 Phillies are going to sink or swim based on how their rotation holds up. Gone (sort of) are disappointing veteran performers like Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle. Failed starter Ryan Madson is back in the bullpen where he belongs. Gone is ace-to-be Gavin Floyd, busy rehabbing his career in Chicago with the White Sox as part of the Freddy Garcia deal. In short, the Phillies starting rotation looks nothing like it did on Opening Day 2006. Aside from Brett Myers not one of the Phillies five front-line pitchers was in a Phillies uniform on Opening Day last year.
I. The Starting Rotation. Undoubtedly the new Phillies rotation is a good deal stronger than it was in 2006 or any season in recent memory. This is very good news because the 2007 Phillies are going to sink or swim based on how their rotation holds up. Gone (sort of) are disappointing veteran performers like Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle. Failed starter Ryan Madson is back in the bullpen where he belongs. Gone is ace-to-be Gavin Floyd, busy rehabbing his career in Chicago with the White Sox as part of the Freddy Garcia deal. In short, the Phillies starting rotation looks nothing like it did on Opening Day 2006. Aside from Brett Myers not one of the Phillies five front-line pitchers was in a Phillies uniform on Opening Day last year.
I am going to stop right here. Whenever I forget to define stats I post in this blog I get emails from people utterly baffled by what a mean when I note that a player's FIP was 3.91 in 2006, which was lower than his 3.74 FIP in 2005. To understand what I am talking about when it comes to pitching stats, here are definitions:
WHIP – Walks plus hits by innings pitched: (BB + H) / IP = WHIP
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
WHIP – Walks plus hits by innings pitched: (BB + H) / IP = WHIP
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
DER – Defense Efficiency Ratio: (Batters Faced – (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) / (Batters Faced – (Home Runs, Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) How often fielders convert balls put into play into outs.
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
The upgrade from ’06 to ‘07 is tremendous. The Phillies are going into battle with a fearsome staff. The team’s ace is going to be young Cole Hamels, the aggressive 23-year old pitcher who was 9-8 with a 4.08 ERA in 2006. After a choppy start Hamels improved as the season wore on, developing pin-point control to go with his blazing-quick fastball. Impressively Hamels struck-out 26% of the batters he faced, 145 in 132 & 1/3 innings pitched. While struggling at times with allowing walks in the beginning of the season, Hamels quickly settled in and cut-down on the free passes he issued. Hamels strikeout/walk ratio went from 1.83 prior to the All-Star Break to 4.20 after.
Pre / Post All-Star Break
ERA: 5.44 / 3.39
HR/9: 1.01 / 1.44
BB/9: 4.84 / 2.46
K/9: 8.87 / 10.37
My belief is that Hamels will improve and quickly establish himself as the Phillies ace pitcher in 2007.
Complimenting Hamels is Brett Myers, who will hopefully avoid problems with the criminal justice system in 2007. Myers went 12-7 with a 3.91 ERA in 2006 and is poised to improve on that in 2007. Myers makes a great compliment to Hamels. In fact, Hamels and Myers posted remarkably similar stats in 2006:
Hamels / Myers
HR/9: 1.29 / 1.32
BB/9: 3.26 / 2.86
K/9: 9.86 / 8.59
What is exciting about Myers is watching him continue to refine his skill and become a better and better pitcher. After going 11-11 with a 5.52 ERA in 2004, Myers has settled down, lowered the number of home runs he surrendered, and become a much more effective pitcher. The last two seasons he’s been 25-15 with a 3.81 ERA. Myers gets three strikeouts for every walk, and can get even better.
Freddy Garcia is the Phillies biggest off-season acquisition. What pitcher will show up in 2007? The Garcia who went 14-8 with a 3.87 ERA while helping the White Sox win their first World Series in … well, a loooong time, in 2005? Or the guy who went 17-9, but with a 4.53 ERA. Aside from issuing a few more home runs in 2006 than he did in the White Sox magical season in ’05, Garcia was pretty consistent last year. He numbers did not change much:
2005 / 2006
HR/9: 1.03 / 1.33
BB/9: 2.37 / 2.00
K/9: 5.76 / 5.62
What the Phillies are getting in Freddy Garcia – and they probably won’t have it in 2008 because Garcia will command on the open market more than the Phillies can hope to spend – is a pitcher who doesn’t give up many walks. Over the last several seasons Garcia has cut down on the free passes, from 2.74 in 2004, to 2.37 in 2005, to 2.00 last season. Not allowing home runs and walks is the hallmark of a good pitcher and Garcia has the tools to succeed at Citizens Bank Ballpark.
Adam Eaton, the number four starter, is an open question-mark. A former Phillies first-rounder, Eaton was signed in the off-season from the Texas Rangers. Eaton, who had been dealt by the team to the San Diego Padres back in 1999, has a checkered past history and could either make the Phillies a formidable staff or a strong staff with a hole in it:
To-wit, Eaton went just 7-6 with a 5.12 ERA in 2006. He struck out just 5.95 batters per nine innings and walked 3.32 per nine. The season before Eaton did a little better. Certainly his 11-5 record looked much better (as did his 4.27 ERA), and he struck out more batters (6.99 K/9), but he gave up a large number of walks (3.08 BB/9). The season previous to that, Eaton was 11-14 with a 4.61 ERA but he got strikeouts (6.92 K/9) and he cut-down on the walks (2.35 BB/9). He’s a talented player with great stuff in his arsenal of pitches, but I am not entirely sure that he’ll put things together and be a dominant pitcher. The other issue, of course, is durability. Eaton was injured in 2006, which is why he hurled just 65 innings in 2006. Can he be a durable pitcher for the Phillies? Or will their depth be challenged?
Finally we come to Jamie Moyer, the Phillies 44-year old fifth starting pitcher who was acquired late in the season and went 5-2 with a 4.03 ERA with the Phillies. I am sure one day that someone will write a biography of Moyer’s life or will make a movie or something because if nobody does, it will be a shame. At the age of 44 Moyer is starting over with the Phillies after being a Seattle Mariner for ten seasons. He’s had a remarkable career, particularly of late, getting his first twenty-game win season when he was 38, and getting his second at 40.
Never much of a strikeout artist (5.35 K/9 in his career), Moyer did it by keeping guys from getting walks, keeping them from hitting home runs, and letting his fielders do the work. Moyer’s arrival on the team coincided with a rise in the team DER for the month of September to .707, much better than what the team did in the regular season. The team’s DER behind Moyer was phenomenal – .735 – much better than what it was behind Cole Hamels (.700) or Brett Myers (.689). You have to give credit, at least a little, to Moyer for controlling the situation with his off-speed pitches and other junk. Moyer seems penciled in as the Phillies fifth starter and will get a work-out this season.
After Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Eaton and Garcia, there is Jon Lieber, who is in the walk year of his three-year, $21 mil deal with the Phillies. I’ve been greatly frustrated with Lieber, a pitcher whose signing I applauded in 2004. Alas, Lieber has gone just 26-24 with the Phillies, with a 4.51 ERA. I had expected him to be stingy with allowing walks (and to his credit he was – 1.51 BB/9) and with home runs (which he was not, allowing 1.39 HR/9 … sixty in two seasons). Lieber’s strategy of throwing lots of groundball outs really didn’t work too well when the Phillies defense decided to tank in 2006. Lieber’s struggles with the Phillies aren’t really his fault … well, not entirely, but he simply didn’t develop into the pitcher that me and many other assumed he’d be when the Phillies inked the deal back in ’04.
At the moment Lieber is occupying a netherworld, the sixth starter on a team that needs five. It seems likely that he’ll be relegated to the bullpen as a long-inning relief artist / emergency starter if Adam Eaton or Jamie Moyer go down. I tend to think that the Phillies will deal him … maybe even as I write this … to some pitching-desperate team in exchange for prospects or outfield help for the Phillies. We shall see …
Should the Phillies trade Jon Lieber, expect the Phillies to turn to their farm system and bring up Scott Mathieson, should there be a good for help in the rotation. Matheson is a talented 23-year old right-hander who went 1-4 with a 7.47 ERA with the Phillies in 2006. If Mathieson is pressed into duty thanks to an injury to Eaton or Moyer, I hope he will do better.
II. The Bullpen. The conventional wisdom on the ’06 Phillies was that their bullpen, expected to be a weakness, turned into an unexpected strength. Yes, I would agree that the Phillies did surprise people with having a good – but not great – bullpen last season. However, I also don’t believe that the Phillies ‘pen was that good. Yes, it ranked third in the N.L. in ERA amongst relief pitchers. However, I think that the bullpen was a beneficiary of good defense, or luck … or both. The Phillies ’07 bullpen has a lot of issues, beginning with closer Tom Gordon.
I had been skeptical of Gordon when he signed with the Phillies to replace Billy Wagner given that he was fairly old for a baseball player – he was entering his eighteenth MLB season – and had recently been a set-up man, not a closer, for the Yankees. He hadn’t been used exclusively as a closer since he played with the Cubs in 2001. Could he make the transition to relief artist? I was skeptical, but for half of the season Tom Gordon proved me wrong. Pre-All Star Break Gordon went 3-3 with 21 saves and a 2.17 ERA. He actually made the 2006 All-Star Game as one of the Phillies three representatives, and their sole pitcher. The second half of the season was a major disaster, however, as Gordon went 0-1 with just 13 saves and a 5.32 ERA.
Will Gordon return and duplicate his first-half performance or his second? My money is on his second-half performance and I fear that Gordon’s inability to close games could sabotage the Phillies right out of the gate. Simply put, for the Phillies to do something this season they need to get out of the gate quick and avoid some of the sluggish starts they’ve had in the past. Having Gordon struggle at the outset of the season would be a disaster.
After Gordon the Phillies have Ryan Madson, a player whom Phillies bloggers ("phloggers"?) have long been high on. Madson did two stints in the Phillies rotation as a starter, a job that he most definitely did not excel at, going 8-5, but with a 6.28 ERA. Ryan was moved back to the bullpen where he pitched better, but still probably suffered from the whole starting experience. The differences between Ryan Madson the reliever and Ryan Madson the starter in ’06 were stark:
Relief / Starter
HR/9: 1.02 / 1.49
BB/9: 2.66 / 3.69
K/9: 7.77 / 6.08
K/BB: 2.92 / 1.61
ERA: 4.50 / 6.28
WHIP: 1.48 / 1.78
Ryan will step into the role of being the Phillies set-up man, typically pitching the seventh or eighth innings to set Tom Gordon up to close out Phillies victories. I wonder, however, if Ryan can step into the role of closing games should Tom Gordon struggle.
Another key piece of the Phillies relief corps puzzle is Geoff Geary. Geary went 7-1 with a 2.96 ERA in 2006, setting up several saves for Tom Gordon. Geary is a groundball oriented pitcher who keeps the ball in the park, avoid allowing walks and gets his share of strikeouts. It is hard to not be impressed by what he did in 2006:
HR/9: 0.59
BB/9: 1.97
K/9: 5.91
K/BB: 3.00
WHIP: 1.35
Geary was durable too, appearing in 81 games for the Phillies and hurling 91 & 1/3 innings of work. More than Ryan Madson, perhaps more than Tom Gordon, Geoff Geary was the top Phillies reliever in 2006. Look who had the best Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA amongst the relief artists in 2006:
FIP:
Geary: 3.48
Castro: 3.69
Gordon: 3.86
White: 4.40
Madson: 4.93
Oh, and by the way, Geary had 10 Win Shares to Gordon’s 8 in 2006.
Fabio Castro, acquired by the team midseason from the Texas Rangers, will play a big role for the team in 2007. A young player – just 22 – Castro is a good left arm to balance out Madson and Geary, a pair of righties. He certainly pitched well with the Phillies in ’06, appearing in 16 games with hurling an ERA of 1.54. Despite hurling a number of innings at Citizens Bank, Castro allowed just one home run and struck out 5.01 batters per nine innings and allowed 2.31 walks per nine.
It will be interesting to see what Castro can do in the future. 2006 was his rookie campaign, and he only pitched seventeen and one-third innings of Double-A or Triple-A ball. In 2005 he hurled 79 innings in Winston-Salem and struck out 75 batters, with a 5-5 record and a 2.28 ERA. He’s got skills and it will be interesting to see how he develops them. Fabio Castro might supplant Madson and – perhaps – Geary as the Phillies main set-up man.
Also rejoining the Phillies ‘pen after having been acquired in midseason from the Cincinnati Reds is Rick White, who 3-1 with a 4.34 ERA with the Phillies. White pitched okay with the Phillies, surrendering just 0.72 home runs per nine innings, however he also allowed 3.61 walks per nine innings. I’m not particularly high on White because he surrendered so many walks in 2006, a terrible trait in a pitcher and particularly one who is supposed to close games out.
That is the bullpen. I have confidence in Geary and Madson to set up the save for Gordon, but I have major problems believing that Gordon can get the job done in ‘07. I suppose we’ll see …
III. The Position Players. You have to give the Phillies offense a lot of credit in 2006. They led the N.L. in runs scored with 865, and it was a good thing too, because the Phillies pitchers gave up 812 runs. Their 865 runs were 94 runs better than the N.L. average of 771. Why were the Phillies so successful? To get a real good feel for how the Phillies offense functions take a quick gander at how many types of hits they had vs. the league averages:
National League / Phillies (Phillies +/-)
Singles: 954 / 967 (+13)
Doubles: 302 / 294 (-8)
Triples: 35 / 41 (+6)
Home Runs: 178 / 216 (+38)
Walks: 538 / 626 (+88)
Strikeouts: 1089 / 1203 (+114)
Sac. Hits: 74 / 57 (-17)
Stolen Bases Att.: 133 / 117 (-16)
Now I know that many people could make a compelling case for the Small Ball tactics practiced by the Anaheim Angels or the Los Angeles Dodgers (or the Colorado Rockies), but the Phillies “Big Ball” tactics seem to be successful. The Phillies milked counts and drew walks and waited for the 400-foot home run. The Phillies were third in the N.L. in pitches per plate appearance at 3.82, better than the league average of 3.76. In contrast to the Angels the Phillies don’t try to steal bases (despite having two great base-runners on the team in Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley), they don’t sacrifice bunt, and they don’t hit well in the clutch (.250 BA/RISP, thirteenth in the National League). Sure, playing 50% of their games at Citizens Bank Ballpark helps the Phillies power numbers, but the Phillies offensive model works well on the road as well and is a convincing blueprint for teams for how to win ball games.
When you can hit the ball 400-feet, who really cares about how you hit in the clutch? The links in the chain that the Angels must assemble to manufacture a run or two are irrelevant to the Phillies, who have a collection of guys capable of going yard at any time. This sort of modern power offense renders no lead truly safe and makes the game very, very exciting.
I know people wring their hands a lot about strikeouts, but the Phillies suggest that strikeouts aren’t that big of a deal. Note that three Phillies, Ryan Howard (181), Chase Utley (132), and Pat Burrell (131), ranked in the Top Ten in strikeouts in the N.L. in 2006. I think the real stat people ought to look at, to scrutinize, is pitches per plate appearance. The Phillies most successful hitters in 2006 were guys who milked counts and made pitchers work to get them out, guys like Pat Burrell (4.32), Ryan Howard (4.07 P/PA), Chase Utley (3.96) and David Dellucci (3.96).
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
The upgrade from ’06 to ‘07 is tremendous. The Phillies are going into battle with a fearsome staff. The team’s ace is going to be young Cole Hamels, the aggressive 23-year old pitcher who was 9-8 with a 4.08 ERA in 2006. After a choppy start Hamels improved as the season wore on, developing pin-point control to go with his blazing-quick fastball. Impressively Hamels struck-out 26% of the batters he faced, 145 in 132 & 1/3 innings pitched. While struggling at times with allowing walks in the beginning of the season, Hamels quickly settled in and cut-down on the free passes he issued. Hamels strikeout/walk ratio went from 1.83 prior to the All-Star Break to 4.20 after.
Pre / Post All-Star Break
ERA: 5.44 / 3.39
HR/9: 1.01 / 1.44
BB/9: 4.84 / 2.46
K/9: 8.87 / 10.37
My belief is that Hamels will improve and quickly establish himself as the Phillies ace pitcher in 2007.
Complimenting Hamels is Brett Myers, who will hopefully avoid problems with the criminal justice system in 2007. Myers went 12-7 with a 3.91 ERA in 2006 and is poised to improve on that in 2007. Myers makes a great compliment to Hamels. In fact, Hamels and Myers posted remarkably similar stats in 2006:
Hamels / Myers
HR/9: 1.29 / 1.32
BB/9: 3.26 / 2.86
K/9: 9.86 / 8.59
What is exciting about Myers is watching him continue to refine his skill and become a better and better pitcher. After going 11-11 with a 5.52 ERA in 2004, Myers has settled down, lowered the number of home runs he surrendered, and become a much more effective pitcher. The last two seasons he’s been 25-15 with a 3.81 ERA. Myers gets three strikeouts for every walk, and can get even better.
Freddy Garcia is the Phillies biggest off-season acquisition. What pitcher will show up in 2007? The Garcia who went 14-8 with a 3.87 ERA while helping the White Sox win their first World Series in … well, a loooong time, in 2005? Or the guy who went 17-9, but with a 4.53 ERA. Aside from issuing a few more home runs in 2006 than he did in the White Sox magical season in ’05, Garcia was pretty consistent last year. He numbers did not change much:
2005 / 2006
HR/9: 1.03 / 1.33
BB/9: 2.37 / 2.00
K/9: 5.76 / 5.62
What the Phillies are getting in Freddy Garcia – and they probably won’t have it in 2008 because Garcia will command on the open market more than the Phillies can hope to spend – is a pitcher who doesn’t give up many walks. Over the last several seasons Garcia has cut down on the free passes, from 2.74 in 2004, to 2.37 in 2005, to 2.00 last season. Not allowing home runs and walks is the hallmark of a good pitcher and Garcia has the tools to succeed at Citizens Bank Ballpark.
Adam Eaton, the number four starter, is an open question-mark. A former Phillies first-rounder, Eaton was signed in the off-season from the Texas Rangers. Eaton, who had been dealt by the team to the San Diego Padres back in 1999, has a checkered past history and could either make the Phillies a formidable staff or a strong staff with a hole in it:
To-wit, Eaton went just 7-6 with a 5.12 ERA in 2006. He struck out just 5.95 batters per nine innings and walked 3.32 per nine. The season before Eaton did a little better. Certainly his 11-5 record looked much better (as did his 4.27 ERA), and he struck out more batters (6.99 K/9), but he gave up a large number of walks (3.08 BB/9). The season previous to that, Eaton was 11-14 with a 4.61 ERA but he got strikeouts (6.92 K/9) and he cut-down on the walks (2.35 BB/9). He’s a talented player with great stuff in his arsenal of pitches, but I am not entirely sure that he’ll put things together and be a dominant pitcher. The other issue, of course, is durability. Eaton was injured in 2006, which is why he hurled just 65 innings in 2006. Can he be a durable pitcher for the Phillies? Or will their depth be challenged?
Finally we come to Jamie Moyer, the Phillies 44-year old fifth starting pitcher who was acquired late in the season and went 5-2 with a 4.03 ERA with the Phillies. I am sure one day that someone will write a biography of Moyer’s life or will make a movie or something because if nobody does, it will be a shame. At the age of 44 Moyer is starting over with the Phillies after being a Seattle Mariner for ten seasons. He’s had a remarkable career, particularly of late, getting his first twenty-game win season when he was 38, and getting his second at 40.
Never much of a strikeout artist (5.35 K/9 in his career), Moyer did it by keeping guys from getting walks, keeping them from hitting home runs, and letting his fielders do the work. Moyer’s arrival on the team coincided with a rise in the team DER for the month of September to .707, much better than what the team did in the regular season. The team’s DER behind Moyer was phenomenal – .735 – much better than what it was behind Cole Hamels (.700) or Brett Myers (.689). You have to give credit, at least a little, to Moyer for controlling the situation with his off-speed pitches and other junk. Moyer seems penciled in as the Phillies fifth starter and will get a work-out this season.
After Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Eaton and Garcia, there is Jon Lieber, who is in the walk year of his three-year, $21 mil deal with the Phillies. I’ve been greatly frustrated with Lieber, a pitcher whose signing I applauded in 2004. Alas, Lieber has gone just 26-24 with the Phillies, with a 4.51 ERA. I had expected him to be stingy with allowing walks (and to his credit he was – 1.51 BB/9) and with home runs (which he was not, allowing 1.39 HR/9 … sixty in two seasons). Lieber’s strategy of throwing lots of groundball outs really didn’t work too well when the Phillies defense decided to tank in 2006. Lieber’s struggles with the Phillies aren’t really his fault … well, not entirely, but he simply didn’t develop into the pitcher that me and many other assumed he’d be when the Phillies inked the deal back in ’04.
At the moment Lieber is occupying a netherworld, the sixth starter on a team that needs five. It seems likely that he’ll be relegated to the bullpen as a long-inning relief artist / emergency starter if Adam Eaton or Jamie Moyer go down. I tend to think that the Phillies will deal him … maybe even as I write this … to some pitching-desperate team in exchange for prospects or outfield help for the Phillies. We shall see …
Should the Phillies trade Jon Lieber, expect the Phillies to turn to their farm system and bring up Scott Mathieson, should there be a good for help in the rotation. Matheson is a talented 23-year old right-hander who went 1-4 with a 7.47 ERA with the Phillies in 2006. If Mathieson is pressed into duty thanks to an injury to Eaton or Moyer, I hope he will do better.
II. The Bullpen. The conventional wisdom on the ’06 Phillies was that their bullpen, expected to be a weakness, turned into an unexpected strength. Yes, I would agree that the Phillies did surprise people with having a good – but not great – bullpen last season. However, I also don’t believe that the Phillies ‘pen was that good. Yes, it ranked third in the N.L. in ERA amongst relief pitchers. However, I think that the bullpen was a beneficiary of good defense, or luck … or both. The Phillies ’07 bullpen has a lot of issues, beginning with closer Tom Gordon.
I had been skeptical of Gordon when he signed with the Phillies to replace Billy Wagner given that he was fairly old for a baseball player – he was entering his eighteenth MLB season – and had recently been a set-up man, not a closer, for the Yankees. He hadn’t been used exclusively as a closer since he played with the Cubs in 2001. Could he make the transition to relief artist? I was skeptical, but for half of the season Tom Gordon proved me wrong. Pre-All Star Break Gordon went 3-3 with 21 saves and a 2.17 ERA. He actually made the 2006 All-Star Game as one of the Phillies three representatives, and their sole pitcher. The second half of the season was a major disaster, however, as Gordon went 0-1 with just 13 saves and a 5.32 ERA.
Will Gordon return and duplicate his first-half performance or his second? My money is on his second-half performance and I fear that Gordon’s inability to close games could sabotage the Phillies right out of the gate. Simply put, for the Phillies to do something this season they need to get out of the gate quick and avoid some of the sluggish starts they’ve had in the past. Having Gordon struggle at the outset of the season would be a disaster.
After Gordon the Phillies have Ryan Madson, a player whom Phillies bloggers ("phloggers"?) have long been high on. Madson did two stints in the Phillies rotation as a starter, a job that he most definitely did not excel at, going 8-5, but with a 6.28 ERA. Ryan was moved back to the bullpen where he pitched better, but still probably suffered from the whole starting experience. The differences between Ryan Madson the reliever and Ryan Madson the starter in ’06 were stark:
Relief / Starter
HR/9: 1.02 / 1.49
BB/9: 2.66 / 3.69
K/9: 7.77 / 6.08
K/BB: 2.92 / 1.61
ERA: 4.50 / 6.28
WHIP: 1.48 / 1.78
Ryan will step into the role of being the Phillies set-up man, typically pitching the seventh or eighth innings to set Tom Gordon up to close out Phillies victories. I wonder, however, if Ryan can step into the role of closing games should Tom Gordon struggle.
Another key piece of the Phillies relief corps puzzle is Geoff Geary. Geary went 7-1 with a 2.96 ERA in 2006, setting up several saves for Tom Gordon. Geary is a groundball oriented pitcher who keeps the ball in the park, avoid allowing walks and gets his share of strikeouts. It is hard to not be impressed by what he did in 2006:
HR/9: 0.59
BB/9: 1.97
K/9: 5.91
K/BB: 3.00
WHIP: 1.35
Geary was durable too, appearing in 81 games for the Phillies and hurling 91 & 1/3 innings of work. More than Ryan Madson, perhaps more than Tom Gordon, Geoff Geary was the top Phillies reliever in 2006. Look who had the best Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA amongst the relief artists in 2006:
FIP:
Geary: 3.48
Castro: 3.69
Gordon: 3.86
White: 4.40
Madson: 4.93
Oh, and by the way, Geary had 10 Win Shares to Gordon’s 8 in 2006.
Fabio Castro, acquired by the team midseason from the Texas Rangers, will play a big role for the team in 2007. A young player – just 22 – Castro is a good left arm to balance out Madson and Geary, a pair of righties. He certainly pitched well with the Phillies in ’06, appearing in 16 games with hurling an ERA of 1.54. Despite hurling a number of innings at Citizens Bank, Castro allowed just one home run and struck out 5.01 batters per nine innings and allowed 2.31 walks per nine.
It will be interesting to see what Castro can do in the future. 2006 was his rookie campaign, and he only pitched seventeen and one-third innings of Double-A or Triple-A ball. In 2005 he hurled 79 innings in Winston-Salem and struck out 75 batters, with a 5-5 record and a 2.28 ERA. He’s got skills and it will be interesting to see how he develops them. Fabio Castro might supplant Madson and – perhaps – Geary as the Phillies main set-up man.
Also rejoining the Phillies ‘pen after having been acquired in midseason from the Cincinnati Reds is Rick White, who 3-1 with a 4.34 ERA with the Phillies. White pitched okay with the Phillies, surrendering just 0.72 home runs per nine innings, however he also allowed 3.61 walks per nine innings. I’m not particularly high on White because he surrendered so many walks in 2006, a terrible trait in a pitcher and particularly one who is supposed to close games out.
That is the bullpen. I have confidence in Geary and Madson to set up the save for Gordon, but I have major problems believing that Gordon can get the job done in ‘07. I suppose we’ll see …
III. The Position Players. You have to give the Phillies offense a lot of credit in 2006. They led the N.L. in runs scored with 865, and it was a good thing too, because the Phillies pitchers gave up 812 runs. Their 865 runs were 94 runs better than the N.L. average of 771. Why were the Phillies so successful? To get a real good feel for how the Phillies offense functions take a quick gander at how many types of hits they had vs. the league averages:
National League / Phillies (Phillies +/-)
Singles: 954 / 967 (+13)
Doubles: 302 / 294 (-8)
Triples: 35 / 41 (+6)
Home Runs: 178 / 216 (+38)
Walks: 538 / 626 (+88)
Strikeouts: 1089 / 1203 (+114)
Sac. Hits: 74 / 57 (-17)
Stolen Bases Att.: 133 / 117 (-16)
Now I know that many people could make a compelling case for the Small Ball tactics practiced by the Anaheim Angels or the Los Angeles Dodgers (or the Colorado Rockies), but the Phillies “Big Ball” tactics seem to be successful. The Phillies milked counts and drew walks and waited for the 400-foot home run. The Phillies were third in the N.L. in pitches per plate appearance at 3.82, better than the league average of 3.76. In contrast to the Angels the Phillies don’t try to steal bases (despite having two great base-runners on the team in Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley), they don’t sacrifice bunt, and they don’t hit well in the clutch (.250 BA/RISP, thirteenth in the National League). Sure, playing 50% of their games at Citizens Bank Ballpark helps the Phillies power numbers, but the Phillies offensive model works well on the road as well and is a convincing blueprint for teams for how to win ball games.
When you can hit the ball 400-feet, who really cares about how you hit in the clutch? The links in the chain that the Angels must assemble to manufacture a run or two are irrelevant to the Phillies, who have a collection of guys capable of going yard at any time. This sort of modern power offense renders no lead truly safe and makes the game very, very exciting.
I know people wring their hands a lot about strikeouts, but the Phillies suggest that strikeouts aren’t that big of a deal. Note that three Phillies, Ryan Howard (181), Chase Utley (132), and Pat Burrell (131), ranked in the Top Ten in strikeouts in the N.L. in 2006. I think the real stat people ought to look at, to scrutinize, is pitches per plate appearance. The Phillies most successful hitters in 2006 were guys who milked counts and made pitchers work to get them out, guys like Pat Burrell (4.32), Ryan Howard (4.07 P/PA), Chase Utley (3.96) and David Dellucci (3.96).
Now, before I go any further, here are some offensive stats in need of definition:
Gross Productive Average (GPA): (1.8 * .OBP + .SLG) / 4 = .GPA. Invented by The Hardball Times Aaron Gleeman, GPA measures a players production by weighing his ability to get on base and hit with power. This is my preferred all-around stat.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Walks per plate appearance (BB/PA): BB / PA = .BB/PA Avg
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). If you use ESPN’s version be advised that it is pitifully is out-of-date, however. James adjusted RC after the 2004 season ended.
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Walks per plate appearance (BB/PA): BB / PA = .BB/PA Avg
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). If you use ESPN’s version be advised that it is pitifully is out-of-date, however. James adjusted RC after the 2004 season ended.
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
Naturally, any discussion of the Phillies offense begins with Ryan Howard, who almost single-handedly carried the Phillies to the playoffs in 2006, shattering the club record for home runs with 58 on his way to also hitting 149 RBIs, scoring 104 runs, drawing 108 walks and taking 383 total bases. Howard’s 58 Home Runs and 149 RBIs led the N.L.
I suppose that you’d have to describe Ryan Howard’s rise to the top in the majors as “meteoric”. After playing a little in 2004, he jumped into the role of the Phillies first baseman following the injuries Jim Thome suffered in 2005. In just 88 games Howard had 22 Home Runs and 63 RBIs and was the 2005 N.L. Rookie of the Year.
This past season the Phillies cleared the way for Howard to become their first baseman by dealing Jim Thome to the White Sox in the off-season and then they made him into the team superstar by dealing Bobby Abreu to the Yankees. Howard responded by going on a tear, hitting 14 home runs and 41 RBIs in August alone. Teams wisely elected to pitch around Howard, who saw his walks spike from 22 in August to 35 in September. Ryan Howard’s walks went from 31 before the All-Star Break to 77 after.
Howard is now one of the two best pure hitters in the N.L., the other being Albert Pujols, an individual destined to become Howard’s arch-nemesis. They are different hitters in that Pujols is a little faster on the bases and isn’t as dependant on the home run as Howard – Pujols had 49 home runs in 83 extra-base hits, Howard had 58 home runs in his 84 extra-base hits – but they are more alike than not. Obviously Pujols, the runner-up for the MVP last season, is bitter about losing to Howard, so this rivalry is off to a hot start.
I expect Howard to respond by putting up great numbers once more in 2007. After his Rookie of the Year performance in '05, I had feared a sophomore slump and he ended up posting one of the greatest seasons in baseball history, shattering the Phillies former single-season mark for home runs set by Mike Schmidt, and winning yet another award. No slump here. The only question is whether teams will actually pitch to Ryan Howard in 2007. If Pat Burrell and Aaron Rowand make teams regret that decision by hitting home runs and getting RBIs, then Ryan Howard will get lots of opportunities, but I expect Howard to see his home run totals drop off to 40 or so and to see him draw 150-170 walks in 2007. Howard will post Barry Bonds-like .500 - .550 OBP numbers in 2007 because teams won’t want Howard to sting them for a big 450-foot home run.
After Ryan Howard we turn our attention to J.Roll … 2006 was an exceptional year for Jimmy Rollins. His assault on Joe DiMaggio's consecutive game hitting streak came to an end at the beginning of the season and he suffered through his usual slump at the start of the season, but he became an exceptional player in the second-half of the season. His 25 home runs were a personal best, eleven better than his previous career-high of 14 in 2001 and 2004. His 45 doubles were also a career-high. Jimmy Rollins went from being a merely a fast player with some pop to being probably the best lead-off hitter in the N.L., with a unique combination of speed and power at the plate. The big difference in J.Roll’s career is the fact that he worked with Tony Gwynn to improve his batting eye and decrease the number of strikeouts he had. The work with Gwynn was a major success, as J.Roll’s strikeout rate dipped from 108, 103 and 113 to 73, 71 and 80 the last three seasons. Check out the differences. First look at J.Roll’s three seasons with 100+ strikeouts:
GPA / ISO / Runs Created:
2001: .250 / .145 / 96
2002: .233 / .135 / 72
2003: .241 / .124 / 78
Then see what he’s been able to do since Gwynn worked with him:
GPA / ISO / Runs Created:
2004: .270 / .166 / 108
2005: .260 / .141 / 100
2006: .270 / .201 / 114
Tremendous. J.Roll went from 20, 17 & 19 Win Shares to 24, 21 & 25.
Jimmy Rollins has speed to burn: he led the N.L. in steals once and in triples three times. With Davey Lopes manning first base, expect the Phillies to use Rollins more aggressively on the base paths. The problem is that the Phillies have talked about using J.Roll as the team’s fifth hitter behind Ryan Howard to provide Howard some protection in the lineup. I think that would be a major mistake. J.Roll is a unique weapon that the Phillies have: a dangerous lead-off hitter would can steal a base or take you deep. Leave J.Roll at lead-off.
Next is Shane Victorino. Shane is probably the Phillies best defensive outfielder (more on that later), but only a so-so hitter. There are a lot of things I don’t like about the way that Victorino hits. To start, he drew just 24 walks in 462 plate appearances, or .052 BB/PA. That’s pretty lousy. When he did put the ball into play, he didn’t do much with it either, hitting just six home runs. Check out some of his stats … GPA: .259; ISO: .127; Runs Created: 58 / RC27: 5.15. Victorino’s .414 slugging percentage was the worst of any Phillie 2006 except for light-hitting third basemen David Bell and Abraham Nunez.
The only plus Victorino has going for him at the plate is that he is fast, which is why the team intends to bat him first or second in 2007. Victorino didn’t try many steals (seven attempts, four successful), but he hit eight triples, and was +14 in base-running (see, The 2007 Bill James Handbook), meaning that he took 14 extra bases over the average base runner.
The Phillies believe that Victorino’s speed and defensive skills out-weigh his slugging hitting. I tend to agree. Victorino is a great player and might improve greatly at the plate. 2006 was, after all, his first real year in the majors. He had played in just a handful of games prior to ’06. Additionally, I’d note that 41 of Victorino’s appearances were as a pinch-hitter, which is a tough job to do, coming into a game cold. I am willing to assume that Victorino is going to be a much, much better player in 2007.
After Victorino comes Chase Utley, probably the Phillies best overall player. Yes, Ryan Howard is the Phillies best hitter, but Chase Utley is every bit as valuable as he is, but Chase plays a difficult defensive position and plays it well, and Chase has speed on the base-paths, something Ryan Howard does not.
How great was Chase Utley’s 2006 season? Well, he hit 32 home runs, 40 doubles, 102 RBIs, scored 131 runs (best in the N.L.), and stole 15 bases in 19 attempts. Utley’s GPA was a robust .302 and his Isolated Power was .218. He had 122 Runs Created, or 7.03 per 27 Outs. Not impressed? Well, Chase also was the second-best base-runner in the majors in 2006, according to Bill James, rating a +27 on the bases.
This is a player who did everything well. Yes, the Phillies would struggle with Ryan Howard down, but Chase Utley is the real key player for the Phillies. Without him the Phillies would lose their second most-lethal offensive threat, their best base-runner, and a key defensive player. The Phillies are very, very lucky to have Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley, two talented middle infielders who field well, and have speed and power at the plate.
Right behind Chase Utley and Ryan Howard is Pat Burrell, the Phillies former superstar and MVP-of-the-future. People are very critical of Pat Burrell and the team seemed to give up hope in him at points in the ’06 campaign. To be sure, Pat Burrell has had a rocky history with the Phillies, but a lot of the criticism of him is utterly unwarranted. He’s a talented player and a deadly bat to have in the lineup, but the Phillies treat him as if he’s a problem case, benching him for no reason and trying like mad to trade him to the San Francisco Giants and/or Baltimore Orioles.
Let’s start at the beginning. Pat Burrell played in 144 games for the Phillies in 2006, hitting 29 home runs and 95 RBIs. This was coming off a year in which he quietly hit 32 home runs and had 117 RBIs, which nearly led the league. And yet the Phillies benched him several times in favor of David Dellucci and Jeff Conine, believing they would help protect Ryan Howard in the lineup better.
The idea that Burrell slumped in 2006 is ludicrous. He posted nearly as many home runs (29) as in 2006 (32), and nearly as many doubles (24) as he had in ’06 (29). And he did it in 100 fewer At-Bats in 2006 compared with 2005. The Phillies shot themselves in the foot in September by sitting Burrell in favor of Conine and Dellucci (especially with respect to Conine), because Burrell is one of the best hitters on the team after Ryan Howard. Only Ryan Howard had a higher isolated power at the plate. Nobody on the team worked counts as aggressively as Pat Burrell did. His 4.32 pitches per plate appearance led the Phillies and the National League. This is a player that made pitchers fight aggressively for every out and stung them when they made a mistake. So why the hostility?
There is a progression to Burrell’s career that is sad to see: the path from golden boy whose promise was boundless (2000-2002), to the dreadful slump (2003), then his recovery (2004) and return to grace (2005), followed by the uncertainty of whether or not the Phillies still believe in him. I think these numbers illustrate that:
Win Shares / ISO
2000: 12 / .203
2001: 17 / .211
2002: 25 / .262
2003: 9 / .195
2004: 14 / .198
2005: 24 / .223
2006: 15 / .244
Career: 116 / .221
Burrell is a great player and I think that the numbers back me up on this. If Burrell can continue to play and contribute there is no reason why he can’t continue to be a 30 Home Run / 100+ RBI guy well into the future. Certainly, I think it would be a big, big mistake to replace him.
Following Burrell is probably going to be Aaron Rowand, the Phillies centerfielder, in the sixth slot. Rowand turned out to be a major disappointment to the Phillies in 2006. His fielding wasn’t up to par (see Part V, below), and he turned in a terrible performance at the plate.
How weak a hitter was Rowand? Well, let’s see … He was the least choosey hitter on the team (after Mike Lieberthal), averaging just 3.4 pitches per plate appearance. In 445 trips to the plate he drew just 18 walks! His .040 BB/PA is comically low compared to the rest of the Phillies regulars (players with 200 or more plate appearances in 2006):
BB/PA:
Abreu: .208
Burrell: .172
Howard: .153
Nunez: .111
Dellucci: .093
Bell: .088
Utley: .085
Rollins: .075
Victorino: .052
Coste: .047
Rowand: .040
Lieberthal: .035
Rowand relied on getting on base the old-fashioned way, with getting hits. He didn’t do too great of a job at that either, hitting just .262. His total On-Base Percentage was just .321. The only regulars with worse OBPs were Lieberthal and Nunez.
Did Rowand make up for his inability to draw walks and get on base with a lot of power at the plate? Not really. He hit just 12 home runs and 24 doubles in 2006. His Isolated Power at the plate was .163, not a terrible number (hey, Abraham Nunez’s was .062), but not great either. I think that the Phillies assumed that Rowand was going to be a bigger bat than he really is. In 2004 Rowand hit .310 with 24 home runs and 38 doubles for the White Sox, on his way to scoring 94 runs for the team. That season, in which his ISO was .234, was largely a fluke. Rowand’s ISO dropped to .137 in 2005, a season where he hit just 13 home runs and 30 doubles despite playing 17 more games than in 2004.
Rowand isn’t a particularly fast player either, stealing just ten bases in fourteen tries and hitting only three triples. Perhaps his lack of stolen bases is an outgrowth of his inability to draw walks. You can’t steal first base after all. In ’04 & ’05 he stole 33 bases in 43 tries, seasons where he had many, many more hits and actually got to spend some time on the base-paths. To his credit, Rowand is a very good base-runner, posting a +13 in 2006, despite not really having much of an opportunity to be on base.
After Rowand is the Phillies new third baseman, Wes Helms. Mike Schmidt and Scott Rolen, Wes Helms is not. A quiet player who turned in some solid years in Atlanta, Milwaukee and Florida, Helms turned in … well, quietly … a solid year with the Marlins in 2006, hitting ten home runs and forty-seven RBIs in just 278 plate appearances. Helms appeared in 140 games, but was a pinch-hitter in 52 and a pinch-runner in 3 more. His playing time was pretty limited, but he made the most of it when he had it. Helms Isolated Power was .246, slightly better than Burrell’s .244. Helms Runs Created per 27 Outs was much better than Burrell’s too: 7.06 to 6.18
Extrapolated to a full season, Helms might have hit 25 home runs and 30 or so doubles in 2006. If the Phillies can get that – 25 home runs, 30 doubles, 80-90 Runs Created – from Helms, they’ll get a bargain, a big-time hitter in the seventh hole, extending the reach of the Phillies murderers row deep into the bottom of the lineup and preventing opposing pitchers from having a respite from the onslaught of hitters patiently working the count and hitting home runs. If Helms can do the 25 / 30 / 80-90 thing, the Phillies will score 900+ runs in 2007.
Finally, hitting eighth – just above the pitchers – is Phillies catcher Rod Barajas. I posted in the past that I am not really a fan of the Phillies signing Barajas when they have two perfectly talented catchers sitting on the bench who could do the job as good – or better – for far less cash. But I am not Pat Gillick. He sees value in Barajas and who am I to argue?
Barajas is a 31-year old catcher entering his eighth MLB season. He hit .256 with the Texas Rangers in 2006, along with 11 home runs and 41 RBIs. For whatever reason, Barajas showed an absolute phobia of drawing a walk in ’06. His BB/PA was an Aaron Rowand-like .046. The result was a stunningly low .298 OBP. Power, not average, is where Barajas makes his living at the plate. In addition to the 11 home runs, he also hit 20 doubles in 2006. Here are Barajas power numbers from his three seasons as a Texas Ranger:
ISO
2004: .204
2005: .212
2006: .154
I am assuming that those numbers are partly a product of playing in a hitter environment like the Ballpark at Arlington. His ISO for his three previous seasons as an Arizona Diamondback were much less impressive:
2001: .114
2002: .123
2003: .109
The other thing that bothers me from looking at his power numbers was that he had dropped nearly sixty points from ’05 to ’06. Does this portend a dramatic decline in Barajas skills?
I suppose that it is a good thing to have your catcher be a slugger rather than a singles-hitting OBP machine like the A’s Jason Kendall when you have him hitting in the 8-slot, just ahead of the pitcher. Imagine the scenario: Aaron Rowand strikes out to start the inning, Wes Helms singles to center, bringing up the catcher. In the old days, it would have been Sal Fasano striding to the plate. Fasano would have grounded into a 6-4-3 double play to end the inning and put the pitcher as the lead-off hitter in the next inning. Instead, the Phillies will have Barajas, who might hit a home run or a double and possibly score Helms. According to the data from The 2007 Hardball Times Baseball Annual, just 31% of the balls Barajas put into play were grounders, well off of the 44% the average player hit. Barajas put 51% of the balls put into play into the outfield as fly-balls.
Barajas is designed to avoid the 6-4-3 double play and allow the Phillies to have the pitcher bat and minimize the damage he does to the team. Provided that he matches his totals from 2004 & 2005 (15 home runs, 26 doubles, 58 RBI & 21 home runs, 24 doubles, 60 RBI), Barajas is going to be a solid addition to the Phillies lineup.
I suppose that you’d have to describe Ryan Howard’s rise to the top in the majors as “meteoric”. After playing a little in 2004, he jumped into the role of the Phillies first baseman following the injuries Jim Thome suffered in 2005. In just 88 games Howard had 22 Home Runs and 63 RBIs and was the 2005 N.L. Rookie of the Year.
This past season the Phillies cleared the way for Howard to become their first baseman by dealing Jim Thome to the White Sox in the off-season and then they made him into the team superstar by dealing Bobby Abreu to the Yankees. Howard responded by going on a tear, hitting 14 home runs and 41 RBIs in August alone. Teams wisely elected to pitch around Howard, who saw his walks spike from 22 in August to 35 in September. Ryan Howard’s walks went from 31 before the All-Star Break to 77 after.
Howard is now one of the two best pure hitters in the N.L., the other being Albert Pujols, an individual destined to become Howard’s arch-nemesis. They are different hitters in that Pujols is a little faster on the bases and isn’t as dependant on the home run as Howard – Pujols had 49 home runs in 83 extra-base hits, Howard had 58 home runs in his 84 extra-base hits – but they are more alike than not. Obviously Pujols, the runner-up for the MVP last season, is bitter about losing to Howard, so this rivalry is off to a hot start.
I expect Howard to respond by putting up great numbers once more in 2007. After his Rookie of the Year performance in '05, I had feared a sophomore slump and he ended up posting one of the greatest seasons in baseball history, shattering the Phillies former single-season mark for home runs set by Mike Schmidt, and winning yet another award. No slump here. The only question is whether teams will actually pitch to Ryan Howard in 2007. If Pat Burrell and Aaron Rowand make teams regret that decision by hitting home runs and getting RBIs, then Ryan Howard will get lots of opportunities, but I expect Howard to see his home run totals drop off to 40 or so and to see him draw 150-170 walks in 2007. Howard will post Barry Bonds-like .500 - .550 OBP numbers in 2007 because teams won’t want Howard to sting them for a big 450-foot home run.
After Ryan Howard we turn our attention to J.Roll … 2006 was an exceptional year for Jimmy Rollins. His assault on Joe DiMaggio's consecutive game hitting streak came to an end at the beginning of the season and he suffered through his usual slump at the start of the season, but he became an exceptional player in the second-half of the season. His 25 home runs were a personal best, eleven better than his previous career-high of 14 in 2001 and 2004. His 45 doubles were also a career-high. Jimmy Rollins went from being a merely a fast player with some pop to being probably the best lead-off hitter in the N.L., with a unique combination of speed and power at the plate. The big difference in J.Roll’s career is the fact that he worked with Tony Gwynn to improve his batting eye and decrease the number of strikeouts he had. The work with Gwynn was a major success, as J.Roll’s strikeout rate dipped from 108, 103 and 113 to 73, 71 and 80 the last three seasons. Check out the differences. First look at J.Roll’s three seasons with 100+ strikeouts:
GPA / ISO / Runs Created:
2001: .250 / .145 / 96
2002: .233 / .135 / 72
2003: .241 / .124 / 78
Then see what he’s been able to do since Gwynn worked with him:
GPA / ISO / Runs Created:
2004: .270 / .166 / 108
2005: .260 / .141 / 100
2006: .270 / .201 / 114
Tremendous. J.Roll went from 20, 17 & 19 Win Shares to 24, 21 & 25.
Jimmy Rollins has speed to burn: he led the N.L. in steals once and in triples three times. With Davey Lopes manning first base, expect the Phillies to use Rollins more aggressively on the base paths. The problem is that the Phillies have talked about using J.Roll as the team’s fifth hitter behind Ryan Howard to provide Howard some protection in the lineup. I think that would be a major mistake. J.Roll is a unique weapon that the Phillies have: a dangerous lead-off hitter would can steal a base or take you deep. Leave J.Roll at lead-off.
Next is Shane Victorino. Shane is probably the Phillies best defensive outfielder (more on that later), but only a so-so hitter. There are a lot of things I don’t like about the way that Victorino hits. To start, he drew just 24 walks in 462 plate appearances, or .052 BB/PA. That’s pretty lousy. When he did put the ball into play, he didn’t do much with it either, hitting just six home runs. Check out some of his stats … GPA: .259; ISO: .127; Runs Created: 58 / RC27: 5.15. Victorino’s .414 slugging percentage was the worst of any Phillie 2006 except for light-hitting third basemen David Bell and Abraham Nunez.
The only plus Victorino has going for him at the plate is that he is fast, which is why the team intends to bat him first or second in 2007. Victorino didn’t try many steals (seven attempts, four successful), but he hit eight triples, and was +14 in base-running (see, The 2007 Bill James Handbook), meaning that he took 14 extra bases over the average base runner.
The Phillies believe that Victorino’s speed and defensive skills out-weigh his slugging hitting. I tend to agree. Victorino is a great player and might improve greatly at the plate. 2006 was, after all, his first real year in the majors. He had played in just a handful of games prior to ’06. Additionally, I’d note that 41 of Victorino’s appearances were as a pinch-hitter, which is a tough job to do, coming into a game cold. I am willing to assume that Victorino is going to be a much, much better player in 2007.
After Victorino comes Chase Utley, probably the Phillies best overall player. Yes, Ryan Howard is the Phillies best hitter, but Chase Utley is every bit as valuable as he is, but Chase plays a difficult defensive position and plays it well, and Chase has speed on the base-paths, something Ryan Howard does not.
How great was Chase Utley’s 2006 season? Well, he hit 32 home runs, 40 doubles, 102 RBIs, scored 131 runs (best in the N.L.), and stole 15 bases in 19 attempts. Utley’s GPA was a robust .302 and his Isolated Power was .218. He had 122 Runs Created, or 7.03 per 27 Outs. Not impressed? Well, Chase also was the second-best base-runner in the majors in 2006, according to Bill James, rating a +27 on the bases.
This is a player who did everything well. Yes, the Phillies would struggle with Ryan Howard down, but Chase Utley is the real key player for the Phillies. Without him the Phillies would lose their second most-lethal offensive threat, their best base-runner, and a key defensive player. The Phillies are very, very lucky to have Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley, two talented middle infielders who field well, and have speed and power at the plate.
Right behind Chase Utley and Ryan Howard is Pat Burrell, the Phillies former superstar and MVP-of-the-future. People are very critical of Pat Burrell and the team seemed to give up hope in him at points in the ’06 campaign. To be sure, Pat Burrell has had a rocky history with the Phillies, but a lot of the criticism of him is utterly unwarranted. He’s a talented player and a deadly bat to have in the lineup, but the Phillies treat him as if he’s a problem case, benching him for no reason and trying like mad to trade him to the San Francisco Giants and/or Baltimore Orioles.
Let’s start at the beginning. Pat Burrell played in 144 games for the Phillies in 2006, hitting 29 home runs and 95 RBIs. This was coming off a year in which he quietly hit 32 home runs and had 117 RBIs, which nearly led the league. And yet the Phillies benched him several times in favor of David Dellucci and Jeff Conine, believing they would help protect Ryan Howard in the lineup better.
The idea that Burrell slumped in 2006 is ludicrous. He posted nearly as many home runs (29) as in 2006 (32), and nearly as many doubles (24) as he had in ’06 (29). And he did it in 100 fewer At-Bats in 2006 compared with 2005. The Phillies shot themselves in the foot in September by sitting Burrell in favor of Conine and Dellucci (especially with respect to Conine), because Burrell is one of the best hitters on the team after Ryan Howard. Only Ryan Howard had a higher isolated power at the plate. Nobody on the team worked counts as aggressively as Pat Burrell did. His 4.32 pitches per plate appearance led the Phillies and the National League. This is a player that made pitchers fight aggressively for every out and stung them when they made a mistake. So why the hostility?
There is a progression to Burrell’s career that is sad to see: the path from golden boy whose promise was boundless (2000-2002), to the dreadful slump (2003), then his recovery (2004) and return to grace (2005), followed by the uncertainty of whether or not the Phillies still believe in him. I think these numbers illustrate that:
Win Shares / ISO
2000: 12 / .203
2001: 17 / .211
2002: 25 / .262
2003: 9 / .195
2004: 14 / .198
2005: 24 / .223
2006: 15 / .244
Career: 116 / .221
Burrell is a great player and I think that the numbers back me up on this. If Burrell can continue to play and contribute there is no reason why he can’t continue to be a 30 Home Run / 100+ RBI guy well into the future. Certainly, I think it would be a big, big mistake to replace him.
Following Burrell is probably going to be Aaron Rowand, the Phillies centerfielder, in the sixth slot. Rowand turned out to be a major disappointment to the Phillies in 2006. His fielding wasn’t up to par (see Part V, below), and he turned in a terrible performance at the plate.
How weak a hitter was Rowand? Well, let’s see … He was the least choosey hitter on the team (after Mike Lieberthal), averaging just 3.4 pitches per plate appearance. In 445 trips to the plate he drew just 18 walks! His .040 BB/PA is comically low compared to the rest of the Phillies regulars (players with 200 or more plate appearances in 2006):
BB/PA:
Abreu: .208
Burrell: .172
Howard: .153
Nunez: .111
Dellucci: .093
Bell: .088
Utley: .085
Rollins: .075
Victorino: .052
Coste: .047
Rowand: .040
Lieberthal: .035
Rowand relied on getting on base the old-fashioned way, with getting hits. He didn’t do too great of a job at that either, hitting just .262. His total On-Base Percentage was just .321. The only regulars with worse OBPs were Lieberthal and Nunez.
Did Rowand make up for his inability to draw walks and get on base with a lot of power at the plate? Not really. He hit just 12 home runs and 24 doubles in 2006. His Isolated Power at the plate was .163, not a terrible number (hey, Abraham Nunez’s was .062), but not great either. I think that the Phillies assumed that Rowand was going to be a bigger bat than he really is. In 2004 Rowand hit .310 with 24 home runs and 38 doubles for the White Sox, on his way to scoring 94 runs for the team. That season, in which his ISO was .234, was largely a fluke. Rowand’s ISO dropped to .137 in 2005, a season where he hit just 13 home runs and 30 doubles despite playing 17 more games than in 2004.
Rowand isn’t a particularly fast player either, stealing just ten bases in fourteen tries and hitting only three triples. Perhaps his lack of stolen bases is an outgrowth of his inability to draw walks. You can’t steal first base after all. In ’04 & ’05 he stole 33 bases in 43 tries, seasons where he had many, many more hits and actually got to spend some time on the base-paths. To his credit, Rowand is a very good base-runner, posting a +13 in 2006, despite not really having much of an opportunity to be on base.
After Rowand is the Phillies new third baseman, Wes Helms. Mike Schmidt and Scott Rolen, Wes Helms is not. A quiet player who turned in some solid years in Atlanta, Milwaukee and Florida, Helms turned in … well, quietly … a solid year with the Marlins in 2006, hitting ten home runs and forty-seven RBIs in just 278 plate appearances. Helms appeared in 140 games, but was a pinch-hitter in 52 and a pinch-runner in 3 more. His playing time was pretty limited, but he made the most of it when he had it. Helms Isolated Power was .246, slightly better than Burrell’s .244. Helms Runs Created per 27 Outs was much better than Burrell’s too: 7.06 to 6.18
Extrapolated to a full season, Helms might have hit 25 home runs and 30 or so doubles in 2006. If the Phillies can get that – 25 home runs, 30 doubles, 80-90 Runs Created – from Helms, they’ll get a bargain, a big-time hitter in the seventh hole, extending the reach of the Phillies murderers row deep into the bottom of the lineup and preventing opposing pitchers from having a respite from the onslaught of hitters patiently working the count and hitting home runs. If Helms can do the 25 / 30 / 80-90 thing, the Phillies will score 900+ runs in 2007.
Finally, hitting eighth – just above the pitchers – is Phillies catcher Rod Barajas. I posted in the past that I am not really a fan of the Phillies signing Barajas when they have two perfectly talented catchers sitting on the bench who could do the job as good – or better – for far less cash. But I am not Pat Gillick. He sees value in Barajas and who am I to argue?
Barajas is a 31-year old catcher entering his eighth MLB season. He hit .256 with the Texas Rangers in 2006, along with 11 home runs and 41 RBIs. For whatever reason, Barajas showed an absolute phobia of drawing a walk in ’06. His BB/PA was an Aaron Rowand-like .046. The result was a stunningly low .298 OBP. Power, not average, is where Barajas makes his living at the plate. In addition to the 11 home runs, he also hit 20 doubles in 2006. Here are Barajas power numbers from his three seasons as a Texas Ranger:
ISO
2004: .204
2005: .212
2006: .154
I am assuming that those numbers are partly a product of playing in a hitter environment like the Ballpark at Arlington. His ISO for his three previous seasons as an Arizona Diamondback were much less impressive:
2001: .114
2002: .123
2003: .109
The other thing that bothers me from looking at his power numbers was that he had dropped nearly sixty points from ’05 to ’06. Does this portend a dramatic decline in Barajas skills?
I suppose that it is a good thing to have your catcher be a slugger rather than a singles-hitting OBP machine like the A’s Jason Kendall when you have him hitting in the 8-slot, just ahead of the pitcher. Imagine the scenario: Aaron Rowand strikes out to start the inning, Wes Helms singles to center, bringing up the catcher. In the old days, it would have been Sal Fasano striding to the plate. Fasano would have grounded into a 6-4-3 double play to end the inning and put the pitcher as the lead-off hitter in the next inning. Instead, the Phillies will have Barajas, who might hit a home run or a double and possibly score Helms. According to the data from The 2007 Hardball Times Baseball Annual, just 31% of the balls Barajas put into play were grounders, well off of the 44% the average player hit. Barajas put 51% of the balls put into play into the outfield as fly-balls.
Barajas is designed to avoid the 6-4-3 double play and allow the Phillies to have the pitcher bat and minimize the damage he does to the team. Provided that he matches his totals from 2004 & 2005 (15 home runs, 26 doubles, 58 RBI & 21 home runs, 24 doubles, 60 RBI), Barajas is going to be a solid addition to the Phillies lineup.
Expect the Phillies to approach their 865 runs scored in 2006 and possibly exceed it in 2007. 900 runs? A possibility.
IV. The Bench. In recent history the Phillies have had a pretty good bench. Placido Polanco was backed up by Chase Utley at second base in 2003 and 2004. Jason Michaels was the Phillies fourth outfielder for a while and he is now a very good starter for the Indians. Ryan Howard backed up Jim Thome for the first half of 2005. Just this past year the Phillies surprised me and showed a lot of bench strength, sending in Chris Coste, Carlos Ruiz, David Dellucci and others to deliver timely hits. Their bench was very, very strong. Dellucci spelled Pat Burrell in left field often and hit 13 home runs in just 301 plate appearances. Ruiz and Coste combined to hit ten home runs and have 46 Runs Created to go with Dellucci’s 43. This was a hidden strength for the 2006 Phillies.
This season will most likely see some of those characters back: Ruiz is slated to be the backup catcher and Coste, if he makes the team (and he should), will be the designated pinch hitter and third-string catcher. And there are some new faces.
First and foremost is Jayson Werth. The talented outfielder missed the entire 2006 campaign with injuries and played sparingly with the Dodgers before that. Werth is versatile, having played 64 games in left field, 43 in right and 30 in center field in 2005. He seems fated to follow in the role that Jason Michaels occupied for the Phillies, that of the multi-position fourth outfielder. Werth is capable of playing all three positions, something the Phillies need if Pat Burrell or Aaron Rowand go down with injuries in 2007, a virtually certainty.
As a hitter Werth is solid, although I am unsure how the layoff in 2006 will affect his game. It is difficult to get a read on Werth’s hitting: his OBP was a constant .338 in 2004 and 2005, but his slugging percentage went from .486 to .374. He hit 16 home runs in 2004 and just 7 in 2005. I doubt this was a product of a decline in his game and rather a product of the Dodgers moving the fences back at Dodgers Stadium. (He hit 11 home runs at home in 2004 and just one in 2005.) I think he’ll thrive and show a lot of power at Citizens when he gets to play, and I predict that Werth will get to make appearances in maybe as many as 50% of the Phillies games.
The catching situation will be interesting. The Phillies primary catcher is going to be Barajas, the former Texas Ranger, with Carlos Ruiz backing up him and Chris Coste available to step in as a super-utility man, capable of playing the infield and at catcher. Essentially the Phillies are going to have three catchers.
Coste, a long-time minor leaguer who didn’t make his major league debut until he was 33-years old, in particular surprised people in 2006, hitting seven home runs with 32 RBIs. Coste’s stats are a little weaker when you consider how lucky he was: despite drawing just ten walks in his 213 plate appearances, he had an OBP of .376, which means that a lot of his batted balls landed for hits when they probably wouldn’t have. Consider that 29% of Coste’s batted balls were Line-Drives, and that is significant because three-quarters of Line-Drives usually fall in for hits. The typical major-leaguer gets about 20% of his hits as Line-Drives. I wouldn’t expect the same level of production from Coste in 2007 that the Phillies got in ’06. He’s a solid player and makes a great bat off the bench, but he needs to work on drawing more walks, or he won’t enjoy the same success he had in 2006.
Ruiz has a lot of Phillies fans intrigued. He played sparingly in ’06 but hit well (three home runs and ten RBIs in just 78 plate appearances). Ruiz played very well at Triple-A Scranton before getting the call to Philadelphia, hitting 16 home runs with 69 RBI in 100 games with the Red Barons. He hit for power (.198 ISO), and for average (.301 GPA). I think he’ll make a great #2 option for the Phillies at catcher and will actually be a more reliable hitter than Coste.
After Ruiz, Coste and Werth is going to be Chris Roberson or Michael Bourn. The Phillies will probably play Roberson as their fifth outfielder instead of Bourn, though Bourn is very talented and appears to be the Phillies centerfielder of the future. Roberson is a talented player who appeared in 57 games with the Phillies, fifteen as a pinch-hitter and sixteen as a pinch-runner. He’s got speed – stealing all three of the bases he tried to take as a Phillie and taking another 25 of 34 as a member of the Phillies Scranton Triple-A affiliate – but he has little power and had an OBP of just .214 with the Phillies. If the Phillies want, they might go instead with Bourn (see my recent post on the Bourn v. Roberson issue), a blazing fast player who successfully stole forty-five of the fifty steals he attempted in the minors in 2006. Bourn might be a riskier move, but a better one in the long-term.
Finally, rounding out the Phillies bench, are Danny Sandoval and Abraham Nunez. Nunez isn’t much of a hitter: his OBP was a terrible .303 and his slugging percentage was a beyond-terrible .273 in 2006. There seems little doubt that the Phillies want to expose Nunez to as few opportunities to gum-up their offense as they can, so Helms will be the starter at third base. Don’t expect Nunez to play much and even when he does, don’t expect him to contribute anything at all. Nunez career GPA is just .220.
I am frankly surprised that Danny Sandoval has finally battled his way to the majors and is poised to be the Phillies backup middle infielder. At the age of 28, he’s played in a handful of major league games and has been in the minors since 1998. He’s not a great power hitter (single-season high of eight home runs). Sandoval also never really became a speedster on the base-paths. In 2005 he was caught in half of the twenty-two steals he attempted in Scranton, a factor that probably explains why he attempted just two steals in 2006 as a Red Baron. Tellingly, the Phillies never used him as a pinch-runner in 2006. I wouldn’t expect to see Danny Sandoval play much at all in 2007.
That’s the Phillies bench, a mixed bag of solid hitters with pop like Ruiz, Coste and Werth, speedsters like Bourn and Roberson, and light-hitting defensive utility infielders like Nunez and Sandoval. It is probably the equal of last year’s bench, which contributed mightily to the Phillies success. I expect them to do the same again.
V. Fielding. I wasn’t surprised at all when John Dewan, author of The Fielding Bible, published his 2006 team Plus / Minus stats in The 2007 Hardball Times Baseball Annual and I saw that the Phillies finished thirteenth in the National League and twenty-second overall in team Plus / Minus. I had known, throughout the season, that the Phillies were a bad fielding team and wouldn’t rank well. That was probably news to the average fan who saw things like Aaron Rowand running into a wall to make a catch and assumed that the Phillies were a defensive powerhouse thanks to Aaron Rowand’s addition to the team. To the contrary, the Phillies went from being the best Plus / Minus team in all of baseball in 2005 to being one of the worst. After going +108 in 2005 – which led the second-best N.L. team, the Houston Astros, by a whopping 58 plays – the Phillies dropped to -33 in 2006. That’s a swing of 141 plays. Basically, the team was a play worse in every game they played from 2006.
IV. The Bench. In recent history the Phillies have had a pretty good bench. Placido Polanco was backed up by Chase Utley at second base in 2003 and 2004. Jason Michaels was the Phillies fourth outfielder for a while and he is now a very good starter for the Indians. Ryan Howard backed up Jim Thome for the first half of 2005. Just this past year the Phillies surprised me and showed a lot of bench strength, sending in Chris Coste, Carlos Ruiz, David Dellucci and others to deliver timely hits. Their bench was very, very strong. Dellucci spelled Pat Burrell in left field often and hit 13 home runs in just 301 plate appearances. Ruiz and Coste combined to hit ten home runs and have 46 Runs Created to go with Dellucci’s 43. This was a hidden strength for the 2006 Phillies.
This season will most likely see some of those characters back: Ruiz is slated to be the backup catcher and Coste, if he makes the team (and he should), will be the designated pinch hitter and third-string catcher. And there are some new faces.
First and foremost is Jayson Werth. The talented outfielder missed the entire 2006 campaign with injuries and played sparingly with the Dodgers before that. Werth is versatile, having played 64 games in left field, 43 in right and 30 in center field in 2005. He seems fated to follow in the role that Jason Michaels occupied for the Phillies, that of the multi-position fourth outfielder. Werth is capable of playing all three positions, something the Phillies need if Pat Burrell or Aaron Rowand go down with injuries in 2007, a virtually certainty.
As a hitter Werth is solid, although I am unsure how the layoff in 2006 will affect his game. It is difficult to get a read on Werth’s hitting: his OBP was a constant .338 in 2004 and 2005, but his slugging percentage went from .486 to .374. He hit 16 home runs in 2004 and just 7 in 2005. I doubt this was a product of a decline in his game and rather a product of the Dodgers moving the fences back at Dodgers Stadium. (He hit 11 home runs at home in 2004 and just one in 2005.) I think he’ll thrive and show a lot of power at Citizens when he gets to play, and I predict that Werth will get to make appearances in maybe as many as 50% of the Phillies games.
The catching situation will be interesting. The Phillies primary catcher is going to be Barajas, the former Texas Ranger, with Carlos Ruiz backing up him and Chris Coste available to step in as a super-utility man, capable of playing the infield and at catcher. Essentially the Phillies are going to have three catchers.
Coste, a long-time minor leaguer who didn’t make his major league debut until he was 33-years old, in particular surprised people in 2006, hitting seven home runs with 32 RBIs. Coste’s stats are a little weaker when you consider how lucky he was: despite drawing just ten walks in his 213 plate appearances, he had an OBP of .376, which means that a lot of his batted balls landed for hits when they probably wouldn’t have. Consider that 29% of Coste’s batted balls were Line-Drives, and that is significant because three-quarters of Line-Drives usually fall in for hits. The typical major-leaguer gets about 20% of his hits as Line-Drives. I wouldn’t expect the same level of production from Coste in 2007 that the Phillies got in ’06. He’s a solid player and makes a great bat off the bench, but he needs to work on drawing more walks, or he won’t enjoy the same success he had in 2006.
Ruiz has a lot of Phillies fans intrigued. He played sparingly in ’06 but hit well (three home runs and ten RBIs in just 78 plate appearances). Ruiz played very well at Triple-A Scranton before getting the call to Philadelphia, hitting 16 home runs with 69 RBI in 100 games with the Red Barons. He hit for power (.198 ISO), and for average (.301 GPA). I think he’ll make a great #2 option for the Phillies at catcher and will actually be a more reliable hitter than Coste.
After Ruiz, Coste and Werth is going to be Chris Roberson or Michael Bourn. The Phillies will probably play Roberson as their fifth outfielder instead of Bourn, though Bourn is very talented and appears to be the Phillies centerfielder of the future. Roberson is a talented player who appeared in 57 games with the Phillies, fifteen as a pinch-hitter and sixteen as a pinch-runner. He’s got speed – stealing all three of the bases he tried to take as a Phillie and taking another 25 of 34 as a member of the Phillies Scranton Triple-A affiliate – but he has little power and had an OBP of just .214 with the Phillies. If the Phillies want, they might go instead with Bourn (see my recent post on the Bourn v. Roberson issue), a blazing fast player who successfully stole forty-five of the fifty steals he attempted in the minors in 2006. Bourn might be a riskier move, but a better one in the long-term.
Finally, rounding out the Phillies bench, are Danny Sandoval and Abraham Nunez. Nunez isn’t much of a hitter: his OBP was a terrible .303 and his slugging percentage was a beyond-terrible .273 in 2006. There seems little doubt that the Phillies want to expose Nunez to as few opportunities to gum-up their offense as they can, so Helms will be the starter at third base. Don’t expect Nunez to play much and even when he does, don’t expect him to contribute anything at all. Nunez career GPA is just .220.
I am frankly surprised that Danny Sandoval has finally battled his way to the majors and is poised to be the Phillies backup middle infielder. At the age of 28, he’s played in a handful of major league games and has been in the minors since 1998. He’s not a great power hitter (single-season high of eight home runs). Sandoval also never really became a speedster on the base-paths. In 2005 he was caught in half of the twenty-two steals he attempted in Scranton, a factor that probably explains why he attempted just two steals in 2006 as a Red Baron. Tellingly, the Phillies never used him as a pinch-runner in 2006. I wouldn’t expect to see Danny Sandoval play much at all in 2007.
That’s the Phillies bench, a mixed bag of solid hitters with pop like Ruiz, Coste and Werth, speedsters like Bourn and Roberson, and light-hitting defensive utility infielders like Nunez and Sandoval. It is probably the equal of last year’s bench, which contributed mightily to the Phillies success. I expect them to do the same again.
V. Fielding. I wasn’t surprised at all when John Dewan, author of The Fielding Bible, published his 2006 team Plus / Minus stats in The 2007 Hardball Times Baseball Annual and I saw that the Phillies finished thirteenth in the National League and twenty-second overall in team Plus / Minus. I had known, throughout the season, that the Phillies were a bad fielding team and wouldn’t rank well. That was probably news to the average fan who saw things like Aaron Rowand running into a wall to make a catch and assumed that the Phillies were a defensive powerhouse thanks to Aaron Rowand’s addition to the team. To the contrary, the Phillies went from being the best Plus / Minus team in all of baseball in 2005 to being one of the worst. After going +108 in 2005 – which led the second-best N.L. team, the Houston Astros, by a whopping 58 plays – the Phillies dropped to -33 in 2006. That’s a swing of 141 plays. Basically, the team was a play worse in every game they played from 2006.
Defensive stats defined:
Range Factor (RF): (Putouts + Assists) * 9 / IP. Essentially measures how much a player is involved in defensive plays.
Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER): (Batters Faced – (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) / (Batters Faced – (Home Runs, Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) How often fielders convert balls put into play into outs.
The ’06 Phillies were much worse than the league average in Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER) at .683 (.010 behind the league average). They threw out 27% of base-stealers, a little worse than the league average of 28%. They were about average in terms of errors and double plays.
Why the drop-off? I tend to think that a number of the Phillies played over their heads defensively in 2005, so the resulting fall-off last season took them by surprise. The Phillies do have a number of excellent defenders on the roster. Chief amongst them were the Phillies double-play duo of Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley. Chase Utley continued to solidify his credentials for being the best second baseman in the majors with his +19, third amongst second basemen, in 2006. J.Roll tied for seventh in the majors amongst shortstops at +12. The two helped the Phillies convert 42% of their double play opportunities. The Phillies might be blessed with the strongest middle infield in baseball. Both of these guys are Gold Glove candidates.
Over in right field the Phillies have Shane Victorino, their talented outfielder with a cannon for an arm. Filling in for Aaron Rowand in center field in 2006, Victorino had as many assists as Rowand – six – in 343 fewer innings of play. In just 156 innings in right field Victorino had three assists, just two fewer than Bobby Abreu had in 690 more innings of work. Victorino’s Range Factor was better than Rowand in centerfield (2.70 vs. 2.57), better than Pat Burrell in leftfield (2.14 vs. 1.93), and better than Bobby Abreu in rightfield (2.37 vs. 1.95). He played 814 & 2/3 innings in the outfield in 2006 and didn’t commit a single throwing or fielding error. It would not surprise me if Shane Victorino won the Gold Glove for right field in 2007. In fact, I expect it.
That said, the Phillies have a number of players who struggled in the field. Ryan Howard is one. Ryan stunned people in 2005 when he went +16 after taking over the first base job from Jim Thome and becoming Rookie of the Year. This past season Howard went -8, a massive swing of 24 plays against. Naturally, his performance at the plate more than overshadowed his struggles at first, but you still want to be as complete a player as you can be. Ryan Howard was probably never going to win the Gold Glove, but the decline is a problematic. It also strengthens the arguments – that I don’t agree with – made by Albert Pujols supporters for why their man (who led all MLB first basemen in Plus / Minus at +19) ought to have won the MVP last season.
Over in left field, the Phillies have Pat Burrell, once a solid left fielder with a great arm, but now a poor defender. Over in center field the Phillies have Aaron Rowand, perhaps the best defensive outfielder in baseball in 2005, but someone who struggled last season, plunging from +30 in '06 to -4 in '07 in Plus / Minus. In contrast to the smooth-fielding Victorino, Rowand made five errors in 2006 (two throwing, three fielding). While everyone applauded Rowand’s grit and gasped in amazement at his catch and throw against the Braves earlier in the season, the day-to-day performance Rowand turned in left something to be desired. The Phillies are going to need Rowand to regain his 2005 form to become an elite defensive team once more.
The biggest wildcard the Phillies defense has is over at third base, where Wes Helms and Abraham Nunez will be the Phillies corner defenders. Previously the Phillies were blessed and cursed with David Bell, a weak hitter but strong fielder who provided the Phillies with stellar play at third base. In fact, Bell tied for third in Plus / Minus from 2004-2006 at +54, just a few behind Adrian Beltre (+64) and Scott Rolen (+61), for all third basemen. Now the Phillies enter a new era without Bell’s quick feet and strong arm. Helms seems destined to be the starter over Nunez, which has definite advantages for the Phillies offensively, but is a major unknown to the Phillies defense because he played the position so little in 2006.
Nunez played third for the Phillies late in the 2006 season and we have no Plus / Minus data to look at, I’d note that Nunez Range Factor (2.66) was a little worse than Bell’s (2.78). I have a sneaking suspicion that Nunez’s defensive stats from late in 2006 were very poor, but I have nothing to back that up.
Finally, at catcher the Phillies are going to have three on the roster. Gone are Sal Fasano and long-time Phillie Mike Lieberthal. In their place are Barajas, Ruiz and possibly Coste.
As I noted above, the Phillies aren’t exactly getting Barajas to be a real offensive threat in their lineup. They are getting him to settle down the Phillies pitchers and keep guys like Carlos Beltran from stealing second base. Barajas did a nice job in 2006, throwing out 28% of the runners who tried to steal on him. Teams only tried 0.58 steals a game on Barajas. Teams tried to steal on Coste and Ruiz 0.64 and 0.66 times a game, better than the team average of 1.01, which suggests to me that either Coste and Ruiz caught a lot of games against the Atlanta Braves – who almost never stole bases in 2006 – or they had arms that opposing teams respected. Mike Lieberthal threw out 33% of the guys who tried to steal on him, but teams ran on him much more. Coste and Ruiz 19% and 15% rates of throwing out would-be base-stealers isn’t as interesting as the fact that teams ran on Lieberthal more. Take what you want from that. Overall, I’d say that Barajas, Ruiz and Coste are going to do a nice job holding runners to first base.
And that’s what a good catcher does.
VI. The Outlook Ahead. People are always pessimistic when it comes to the Phillies and I understand why. This is a franchise that always disappoints its fans.
Fans in the 1950s thought that the Wiz Kids were harbingers of future success. They weren’t.
Fans in the 1960s watched the ’64 squad blow a massive lead with just days left in the season.
Fans in the 1970s watched the team struggle to reach the World Series and lose the NLCS three consecutive seasons.
Fans in the 1980s watched the team win their sole World Series and then collapse back into obscurity.
Fans in the 1990s watched the team enjoy a brief, fleeting moment of success in ’93, then watch the team spiral into irrelevance.
Now, in this decade, we’ve watched the Phillies botch their move into their new ballpark with disappointing runs towards the playoffs that came up short.
This team has a bad habit of disappointing the good fans of Philadelphia, who have suffered through decades of bitter disappointment and have a fool me once / fool me twice mentality towards this team.
Maybe this will be different. I am cautiously optimistic about the 2007 Philadelphia Phillies. This team has the best rotation in the N.L. East and maybe even the entire NL – although the Dodgers would give them a run for their money on that score. Armed with the big guns of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell and Jimmy Rollins, there isn’t a reason in the world for the 2007 Phillies not to have the best offense in the N.L. once more. Aside from a weak bullpen (specifically, a weak closer), this team is stacked.
So why can’t the Phillies win World Series? This is a stunning thought for people to contemplate, but I don’t see why not. I think the ’06 Cardinals were an absurdly weak team that peaked at exactly the right time. The Phillies were a game and a half better than the Redbirds in the regular season. A stronger finish and the Phillies might have made the playoffs and blitzed to the World Series. Hey, their 45-30 Post All-Star record was the best in the N.L.
So what can stop the Phillies? Pessimism. The natural malaise that fans who have been fooled too many times feel when they see this team promise their fans, as so many unfaithful spouses do, that this time will be different. The jilted fans reply, like the long-suffering victims naturally do, with: “Show me.”
Well, I think this season will be different. I’m sure I predicted this in the past, but it feels like there is a real chance now. The pitching is there, the hitting is there and the fielding in there. This is the best team in the N.L. East and I don’t see why they couldn’t best the field in the N.L. and make it into the 2007 World Series. This team is different, this year feels different. I hope I am not disappointed.
Projected Opening Day Roster:
Lineup:
SS – Jimmy Rollins
RF – Shane Victorino
2B – Chase Utley
1B – Ryan Howard
LF – Pat Burrell
CF – Aaron Rowand
3B – Wes Helms
C – Rod Barajas
This team has a bad habit of disappointing the good fans of Philadelphia, who have suffered through decades of bitter disappointment and have a fool me once / fool me twice mentality towards this team.
Maybe this will be different. I am cautiously optimistic about the 2007 Philadelphia Phillies. This team has the best rotation in the N.L. East and maybe even the entire NL – although the Dodgers would give them a run for their money on that score. Armed with the big guns of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell and Jimmy Rollins, there isn’t a reason in the world for the 2007 Phillies not to have the best offense in the N.L. once more. Aside from a weak bullpen (specifically, a weak closer), this team is stacked.
So why can’t the Phillies win World Series? This is a stunning thought for people to contemplate, but I don’t see why not. I think the ’06 Cardinals were an absurdly weak team that peaked at exactly the right time. The Phillies were a game and a half better than the Redbirds in the regular season. A stronger finish and the Phillies might have made the playoffs and blitzed to the World Series. Hey, their 45-30 Post All-Star record was the best in the N.L.
So what can stop the Phillies? Pessimism. The natural malaise that fans who have been fooled too many times feel when they see this team promise their fans, as so many unfaithful spouses do, that this time will be different. The jilted fans reply, like the long-suffering victims naturally do, with: “Show me.”
Well, I think this season will be different. I’m sure I predicted this in the past, but it feels like there is a real chance now. The pitching is there, the hitting is there and the fielding in there. This is the best team in the N.L. East and I don’t see why they couldn’t best the field in the N.L. and make it into the 2007 World Series. This team is different, this year feels different. I hope I am not disappointed.
Projected Opening Day Roster:
Lineup:
SS – Jimmy Rollins
RF – Shane Victorino
2B – Chase Utley
1B – Ryan Howard
LF – Pat Burrell
CF – Aaron Rowand
3B – Wes Helms
C – Rod Barajas
P – Pitcher
Bench:
OF – Jayson Werth
OF – Chris Roberson
IF – Danny Sandoval
IF – Abraham Nunez
C – Carlos Ruiz
IF / C – Chris Coste
Pitching Staff:
SP – Cole Hamels
SP – Brett Myers
SP – Jamie Moyer
SP – Freddy Garcia
SP – Adam Eaton
RP – Ryan Madson
RP – Fabio Castro
RP – Rick White
RP – Geoff Geary
RP – Jon Lieber / Alfonso Alfonseca
RP – Tom Gordon
(I am assuming that the Phillies carry 14 position players and 11 pitchers. They will likely carry 13 position players and 12 pitchers, in which case I’d designate Sandoval for the minors and ensure Alfonseca of a spot in the ‘pen.)
PLAY BALL!
Bench:
OF – Jayson Werth
OF – Chris Roberson
IF – Danny Sandoval
IF – Abraham Nunez
C – Carlos Ruiz
IF / C – Chris Coste
Pitching Staff:
SP – Cole Hamels
SP – Brett Myers
SP – Jamie Moyer
SP – Freddy Garcia
SP – Adam Eaton
RP – Ryan Madson
RP – Fabio Castro
RP – Rick White
RP – Geoff Geary
RP – Jon Lieber / Alfonso Alfonseca
RP – Tom Gordon
(I am assuming that the Phillies carry 14 position players and 11 pitchers. They will likely carry 13 position players and 12 pitchers, in which case I’d designate Sandoval for the minors and ensure Alfonseca of a spot in the ‘pen.)
PLAY BALL!
Labels: Batting, Fielding, Managing, Pitching, Predictions
