Wednesday, April 02, 2008
Phillies Preview 2008: Pitching
Enough with the Phillies offense. Let’s move along to the Phillies pitchers. Before I start talking any jargon, here are the stats, defined: Earned Run Average (ERA): Earned Runs (ER) Allowed * 9 / Innings Pitched (IP) = What a pitcher would give up if they hurled a nine-inning game. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): (((13 * HR) + (3 * BB) – (2 * K)) / IP) + League Factor. Basically a measure of how a pitcher would have done if he had an average defense behind him. A stat related to this is DER, or Defense Efficiency Ratio. That’s basically how often fielders converted balls put into play by the pitcher into outs. I might also talk about Defense Independent Pitching Statistic (DIPS): The more sophisticated version of FIP developed by Voros McCracken that takes into account park factors and other considerations. DIPS is the stat that revolutionized our understanding of pitching when it came out less than a decade ago. Basically DIPS stands for the proposition that pitchers cannot control the outcomes of balls they allow to be put into play, and thus, ought to be judged in a neutral manner. Finally, Home Runs per 9 Innings (HR/9): (HR * 9) / IP; Walks per 9 Innings (BB/9): (BB * 9) / IP; and Strikeouts per 9 Innings (K/9): (K * 9) / IP … Enough numbers. Back to the Phillies … The Phillies didn’t exactly light the world on fire with their pitching in 2007. The team threw just five shutouts, tied with the Pirates for second-fewest in the N.L … The worst: the Marlins with four. The best: the Padres with a whopping 20 … As a team the Phillies had an ERA of 4.73, much worse than the 4.43 league average. The Phillies FIP was slightly worse than that: 4.76, which ranks fifteenth in the N.L., worse than everyone save the Washington Nationals. The Phillies struck out 16% of the batters they faced, a little off the N.L. average of 17%, and they allowed 10% of those hitters to walk, again, a little off the N.L. average of 9%. The .451 slugging percentage the Phillies pitchers allowed was also worse than the N.L. average of .424 … I suppose that I ought to drop a few words here about the effect Citizens Bank Ballpark has on the Phillies and their pitching. A few years ago, when Citizens Bank opened, I argued pretty vigorously that it wasn’t a hitters park. After four years of data to look at, I am prepared to pretty much drop that argument. Citizens Bank’s Park Factor … hold on, a definition is in order here: “Park Factor” means you take the difference between what a team and its opponents do at home and what they do on the road, divide it and arrive at a number. 100 is neutral. Over 100 favors hitters. Under 100 favors pitchers … for 2007 was 103 for runs scored (3% easier to score a run), 145 for Home Runs (45% easier to hit a home run), and 101 for Batting Average (1% easier to get a hit). Citizens seems to compress hitting doubles (93) and triples (88). Interestingly, it might actually help pitchers in terms of generating strikeouts – 103 Park Factor – and compressing walks – 94 Park Factor – both generally things that we examine when we look at the quality of pitching. Generally speaking, however, the consensus is that a pitcher is going to have a harder go of it at Citizens than at any other ballpark in the N.L., with the possible exceptions of Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, Coors Field in Denver, and Chase Field in Phoenix because of those home runs … And indeed, allowing those massive home runs has been a problem for the Phillies over the last several years. When the team brought groundball pitcher extraordinaire Jon Lieber to the team in ’05, I thought the move was a savvy one. And then Lieber gave up 33 home runs that first season with the Phillies. Last year the Phillies allowed 1.22 home runs per nine innings (HR/9). The N.L. Average was 1.04. Getting pitchers who can take care of business is a tricky business for the Phillies and something that the team is still trying to figure out. If the Rockies unlocked the mystery of Coors Field, however, than surely so can the Phillies.
So what is the Phillies pitching staff going to look like in 2008? Here are the probable starters and relievers:
Pitching Staff:
SP – Cole Hamels
SP – Brett Myers
SP – Jamie Moyer
SP – Kyle Kendrick
SP – Adam Eaton
RP – Chad Durbin
RP – Clay Condrey
RP – Ryan Madson
RP – J.C. Romero
RP – Tom Gordon
RP – Brad Lidge
Let’s begin with the guys that take the mound at the start of a game. The Phillies starters struggled in 2007, despite a revamped rotation that featured high-priced talent like former White Sox hurler Freddy Garcia and former Padre (and former Phillies draft pick) Adam Eaton. Injuries soon forced Brett Myers, the team’s Opening Day starter to the bullpen as the new closer, while Garcia struggled before going on the Disabled List. Suddenly the Phillies deep rotation looked thin as the team was forced to bring Double-A pitcher Kyle Kendrick to the show to fill the gap in the summer last year when Jon Lieber joined Garcia on the Disabled List. The team that began the season with six starters was suddenly down to three. The patchwork rotation did seem to work as the season progressed. Still, statistically, the Phillies starters posted some terrible numbers. As a team the Phillies tied for eleventh in the N.L. in Quality Starts in ’07 … a Quality Start is a start where the Phillies pitcher goes at least six innings and allow three or fewer runs … The Phillies had 74 of those in 2007. Just three teams had fewer: the Cardinals (70), the Nationals (60), and the Marlins (49). The Phillies starters rank twelfth in the N.L. in ERA and OBP-allowed and in terms of slugging percentage allowed, they ranked fifteenth. Phillies pitchers did rank first in the N.L. in run support at 6.05, which helps to explain why the team won games despite their pitchers struggling so much. Whereas the San Diego Padres were accustomed to winning 2-1 games, the Phillies were usually locked in 7-5 shoot-outs.
The 2008 Phillies starting rotation is set with Cole Hamels and Myers occupying the #1 and #2 slots, followed closely by Jamie Moyer, Kendrick and Eaton at # 3, 4 & 5 respectively. Let’s start with Hamels … The Phillies are fortunate to have Cole Hamels, their star, their ace pitcher, who takes the mound tonight against the Nationals. Since he joined the Phillies staff in May of 2006, after a whirlwind sprint through the Phillies minor league system, Hamels has been a critical part of the team’s success. After going 9-8 with a 4.08 ERA that year, Hamels put everything together in his sophomore season and went 15-5 with a 3.39 ERA in 2007. Had Hamels not been injured and missed five or six starts, he might have figured more prominently in the Cy Young Award voting (though Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb were the clear #1 and #2 for the award last season). Hamels steadying pitching meant everything to the Phillies last season. His fifteen strikeout performance against the Reds on April 21 was not only tied for the second-best pitching performance in the N.L. in 2007 – utilizing Bill James Game Score pitching stat, which awards and detracts points for certain events – but it was a vital game in that it helped snap the Phillies out of their 4-11 start and help get them started on making up ground on the Mets. Overall, Hamels struck-out 23.8% of the batter he faced and finished third in the N.L. in terms of strikeouts per nine innings with 8.69. Not impressed yet? Don’t think Hamels will factor in the N.L. Cy Young award voting now that the mighty Johan Santana is here to grapple with defending champ Jake Peavy? Check this out: Hamels 4.12 strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) ration was better than Cy Young award winner Peavy’s 3.53 … And contrary to the image of Hamels as a fire-baller who just goes to the mound hurling 95 mph heat, Hamels threw the second-highest percentage of sliders in the N.L. last season: 34.5% … Batters hit just .200 with runners in scoring position against Hamels, second-best in the N.L. after the Braves John Smoltz. Hamels is dominating and will be an integral part of the Phillies rotation until at least 2010, or longer if the Phillies can sign him to a long-term deal … You have to admire the work Brett Myers did last season with the Phillies. The team’s Opening Day starter last season and this season, Myers said nary a peep when he was yanked from the rotation and sent to the bullpen to bolster the team’s closer situation when Tom Gordon faltered. Myers put up good numbers in the bullpen, saving 21 of 24 games for the Phillies and striking out 83 batters in just 68 and two-thirds innings of work … I thought it was kind of interesting to compare the performance Myers did with the Phillies last year with what Smoltz did with the Atlanta Braves from ’01 – ’04, when he moved from the Braves rotation to become their lights out closer (saving 154 of 168 games for the Braves). No longer having to pace himself, Smoltz fired the fastballs by hitters in the eighth and ninth innings during those years. Similarly, Myers turned up the strikeout quotient from 8.69 K/9 in ’05 to 8.59 K/9 in ’06 to 10.88 last season … Myers was an excellent starter for the Phillies in’05 (13-8, 3.72 ERA) and ’06 (12-7, 3.91 ERA), and he should return to that form in 2008. As you can see, his strikeout rates were consistently high both of those seasons, and his walk rate was a modest 2.84 and 2.86 in ’05 and ’06. The only flaw Myers has as a pitcher is the surprisingly high number of home runs he surrendered in those two seasons: 60. This is surprising to me because Myers tends to get many, many more groundballs than flyballs when balls are put into play. Amongst the Phillies pitchers he was very prone towards grounders:
2007 G/F ratio:
Geoff Geary: 1.57
Kyle Kendrick: 1.55
Jon Lieber: 1.52
Brett Myers: 1.32
Cole Hamels: 1.13
Jamie Moyer: 1.08
Adam Eaton: 1.06
Kyle Lohse: 0.95
I tend to think pitchers like Myers or ex-Phillie Jon Lieber possess the tools to be a successful pitcher for the team because groundball pitchers don’t allow home runs and give their defenses the ability to make outs. At Citizens Bank Ballpark these skills are musts … There is a lot of diversity in the baseball world, however, and I admit that the numbers don’t sway you one way or the other. Brandon Webb, who pitches in the offense-friendly confines of Chase Field (111 Home Run and Run Factor in 2007), had a groundball/flyball ratio of 3.34 in 2007, which was basically the largest ratio of any pitcher in baseball. Webb is a pretty good pitcher: second in the Cy Young Voting and a previous winner of the award. Jake Peavy has a G/F ratio of just 1.24. Then there is this really good pitcher named Johan Santana. Last season Johan Santana’s G/F was 0.92. So there is a lot of diversity in the pitching world and there is no one way to be effective … Back to Myers. I really think that Myers will pull out all of the stops and will turn in a stunning performance this season, rivaling that of Hamels. The two are a terrific one-two punch. If I had to guess what each will do this season …
Hamels: 17-9, 3.75 ERA
Myers: 16-8, 3.85 ERA
But the Phillies rotation consists of more than Hamels, Myers and hoping for an off-day. Right after them is this guy named Moyer … It’s hard not to love what Jamie Moyer does. This will be his twenty-second season in the major leagues in a career that began with the Chicago Cubs in 1986 (I was nine years old and still in elementary school) and has seen him face 15,102 batters, win 230 games, and strikeout 2,125 hitters. At age 45 Moyer is beginning what might actually be his final season in the big leagues (it is the final season in a two-year deal he signed with the Phillies after he was dealt to the team from the Seattle Mariners in 2006) as he searches for that elusive World Series ring. Moyer has lasted so long in the majors because of his pitching style: he is a soft-tossing lefty like the Boston / Milwaukee Braves Warren Spahn, or the Atlanta Braves Tom Glavine. I think a few numbers will nicely illustrate what kind of a pitcher Moyer is: last season his fastball averaged 81.1 miles per hour, which made his the slowest in the National League. Moyer threw his fastball just 37.1% of the time, the lowest percentage of fastballs of any N.L. pitcher. Moyer’s favored pitch was the changeup, which he threw 28.2% of the time, the third-highest percentage of any N.L. pitcher. Crafty 'ol Jamie Moyer … Overall, Moyer’s results weren’t great in 2007. He posted a winning record at 14-12, but his ERA was 5.01. He allowed 30 home runs, or 1.35 HR/9, and the slugging percentage against him was a whopping .483 … Moyer increased his strikeout rate last season to 133 in 199 and one-thirds innings (6.0 K/9), which was a substantial jump over what he did in his final full season with the Seattle Mariners in 2005 (4.59 K/9). Moyer’s near 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio (2.01 K/BB in 2007) is a consistent trend of his throughout his career (1.86 in ’06 with the Mariners, and 1.96 in ’05) … Consistency is a nice theme when writing about Moyer. His 18 Quality Starts lead the Phillies and was roughly the same percentage of Quality Starts per start as Cole Hamels: 55% to 57% … The Bill James Handbook projects Moyer to go 11-10 with a 4.31 ERA in 2008. I think that’s about right. The Phillies have Moyer on the roster to provide veteran leadership and playoff experience (Moyer pitched well in the Phillies Game 3 loss to the Rockies in the NLDS last season), and to eat up 180-200 innings … Kyle Kendrick, victim of Brett Myers hilarious practical joke in the preseason, is set as the Phillies #4 starter, quite a jump for a guy who was in Double-A this time last season and probably didn’t expect to make it to Philadelphia until 2009. Kendrick’s career began a little early when injuries in the rotation forced him to Philly. Once here Kendrick made the most of his opportunity, going 10-4 with a 3.87 ERA. With 13 Quality Starts in 20 Starts, his 65% QS percentage was substantially better than Cole Hamels or Jamie Moyer last season. Bravo … But beneath the exterior or Kendrick’s success are some problems. Kendrick allowed a lot of balls to be put into play in 2007. Of the 499 batters he faced last year, he allowed 409 to put the ball into play. Kendrick struck-out an absurdly low percentage of batters: 49 in 121 innings, or 3.64 K/9. To his credit he didn’t walk many either: 1.85 BB/9. The key to Kendrick’s success was that Phillies fielders did a nice job converting those balls put into play into outs: they posted a .719 DER behind Kendrick, a groundball oriented pitcher. Thankfully for Kyle, he’s got a Gold Glove winner at shortstop and a future Gold Glove winner over at second base. What if the Phillies fielders don’t do that for Kendrick next season? Pitchers who rely on fielders rather than getting strike-outs tend to be very inconsistent and often get hammered. Their numbers yo-yo from season to season because the fluctuations in the quality of their defense, not their own abilities, decide the numbers. In Kendrick’s case he was also the product of excellent run support: a whopping 7.74 per nine innings pitched. That support helped Kendrick to tie for fourth in the National League in “Cheap Wins” (Bill James stat) with four. While Kendrick’s ERA was a solid 3.87, his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA was a more robust – and Adam Eaton-like – 4.90. DIPS, a stat I trust a little more because it takes into account Park Factors, pegged Kendrick’s “real” ERA at 4.85, which was worse than what Jamie Moyer did (4.73) and much worse than Cole Hamels (3.63). My sense is that Kendrick will pitch nowhere near as well as he did last season and his ERA will hover in the 4.50 – 4.70 range. Kendrick has already struggled in the preseason, allowing 14 runs in seven and two-thirds of an inning of work (16.43 ERA). The Bill James Handbook declined to issue predictions for Kendrick based on one season of data, but I’ll make my own: 8-10, with a 4.65 ERA in 2008 … How bad was Adam Eaton in 2007? I think the raw stats alone tell the story: 10-10, 6.29 ERA, .520 slugging percentage against, 71 walks and 30 home runs allowed in 161 and two-third innings pitched (3.95 BB/9, 1.67 HR/9). His 10-10 record, which looks pretty decent - and, incidentally, Bill James credits Eaton with five of those ten wins as “Cheap Wins” - is a nice illustration why wins and losses are largely irrelevant when judging a pitcher’s abilities. Eaton got a lot of run support – 5.62 runs per nine innings pitched – and he survived that way. Eaton did pitch roughly as badly as his ERA indicates. His FIP ERA was 5.93 and his DIPS ERA was 5.69. Eaton’s problem was not like Kendrick’s in that he relies too much on his fielders – the team’s .691 DER was pretty average – but that he allowed far too many home runs and walks last year. Given that he only threw 65 innings with the Texas Rangers in 2006, I wonder if the Phillies knew what they were getting when they acquired Eaton in 2007. I think the team focused too much on Eaton’s strong 11-5, 4.27 ERA performance as a member of the San Diego Padres in ’05, failing to take into account the “Petco Park” factor … The Bill James Handbook pegs Eaton’s performance at 8-10 with a 4.89 ERA in 2008, which I think is a reasonable projection … In the event that Eaton or Kendrick struggle and the Phillies find a need to fill the gap, they will most likely turn their attention towards Chad Durbin, the former Detroit Tigers player, who is slated to begin the season in the bullpen, but seems likely to join the rotation at some juncture of the season. Durbin pitched in 36 games for the Tigers last season, starting 19 of them. Durbin’s record was a so-so 8-7 with a 4.72 ERA. Durbin failed to pry away the #5 starting job from Adam Eaton in spring training – partly because the Phillies have $21 million dollars invested in Eaton over the 2007-2009 seasons – but the job might still be his. Durbin threw 127 innings with the Tigers in 2007 and will need to improve on some areas of his game to be a viable starter in the National League. Durbin’s K/BB ratio was a less than stellar 1.35. He allowed far too many walks – 3.45 BB/9 – to be a successful pitcher. Durbin also allowed a fair number of home runs (1.48 HR/9) at Comerica Park (which had a Home Run Factor of 114 in 2007), which makes me wonder how many dingers Durbin will give up in 2008 … Durbin’s high 4.72 ERA masks a worse FIP ERA of 5.73 and a DIPS ERA of 5.48. The reason why Durbin’s ERA was “just” 4.72 last season was because the White Sox played terrific defense behind him, converting .731 of the balls he allowed to be put into play to become outs. The Bill James Handbook gives a pessimistic 4-6, 5.00 ERA assessment of Durbin might be right on the money … Moving deeper into the bullpen … I feel like I ought to cover the bullpen as a separate topic from the starting pitching because the two have very different roles. The starter typically needs to get those 6 or 7 innings in, keep the Phillies in the lead, then turn over the game in the eighth inning to the bullpen so they can clamp down on the opposition for the final two innings. That concentration on preserving leads and focusing narrowly on just an inning or two is very, very different from the mentality of the starter, who needs to pace himself and survive more challenges. The Phillies bullpen, I might add, was a major reason why the Phillies made the playoffs in 2007 … Check out the relief corps ERA and Innings Pitching in September of last year:
Innings Pitched / ERA
Romero: 15.2 / 0.00
Geary: 17.0 / 2.65
Myers: 18 / 3.00
Condrey: 12.1 / 3.65
Gordon: 16 / 3.94
Yes, you read that correctly. In fifteen and two-thirds of an innings pitched, J.C. Romero didn’t allow a single run. Zip. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Romero, Geary, Myers, Condrey and Gordon threw a combined 78 innings, or 30% of the Phillies September innings. While Jimmy Rollins was winning the MVP award, the bullpen was quietly winning the Phillies their first playoff berth in fourteen years … The Phillies primary set up options are going to be Condrey, Romero, Ryan Madson and Tom Gordon. Let’s talk about them next … Ryan Madson has been with the Phillies since he caught the eye of Phillies bloggers with his exceptional performance out of the bullpen in 2004: 9-3, 2.34 ERA. The nine Win Shares he had during his rookie season remains a career high. After that season Madson has had a somewhat uneven career with the Phillies. He struggled a little more in 2005, as his ERA rose to 4.14, as did the number of home runs allowed (0.70 in ’04 to 1.14 in ’05). However he was still a solid pitcher and his strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) went from 2.89 in ’04 to 3.16 in ’05. The Phillies elected to give Madson a chance to become a starter in 2006, but he flopped in the role. He started 17 games and finished the season with an ERA of 5.69. His home runs spiked (1.34 HR/9), the slugging percentage allowed jumped nearly ninety points to .516, and his K/BB ration dropped below 2.00 to just 1.98. Back in the bullpen, Madson was largely back to his ’04 form, going 2-2 with a 3.05 ERA. His Home Runs allowed went from 1.34 to 0.80. Madson’s K/BB ration dropped (1.87), but he still clearly pitched better in his role in the bullpen … J.C. Romero, a cast-off from the Red Sox last season, was a startlingly welcome addition to the Phillies bullpen down the stretch. In 51 games with the Phillies Romero went 1-2 with a 1.24 ERA. But just those numbers don’t even come close to giving you the full story about Romero’s extraordinary season with the Phillies in 2007. Romero faced 143 batters in a Phillies uniform and threw 597 pitches. In that time he allowed just one home run (0.25 HR/9) and a .191 slugging percentage against. Romero is one of those pitchers who throws a lot of pitches because he doesn’t want to give a batter a chance to hit anything at all. Consider this: Romero threw 4.17 pitches per batter. How does that compare with some of the rest of the Phillies?:
Pitches / Batters Faced:
Romero: 4.2
Myers: 4.1
Hamels: 3.8
Gordon: 3.8
Madson: 3.7
Eaton: 3.7
Moyer: 3.6
Kendrick: 3.5
The consequence is that of the 143 batters Romero faced, he walked 25 (19%) and struck-out 31 (22%). To give you comparison, remember that 9% of batters in the N.L. walked and 17% struck-out last season. Romero is an opposite extreme to Kendrick. Just 61% of the batters he faced put the ball into play. That is pretty remarkable. Here is another remarkable fact: of the 87 batters who put balls into play against Romero, 64% of those were groundballs. The N.L. average for groundballs is 43% … Do I expect Romero to repeat a lot of those stats again in 2007? His 0.00 September ERA is an impossibility. While he did generally pitch well in 2007, Romero’s FIP ERA was 3.98, nearly three runs (specifically, 2.75 more) than his “real” ERA. A stunning 83.3% of the balls put into play behind Romero were turned into outs. Simply put, that will not happen again. A 3.00 ERA for Romero is far more likely this season … I wonder how many other baseball teams boast two pitchers over the age of 40 on their rosters. The Phillies do with 45-year old Jamie Moyer and with 40-year old reliever Tom Gordon on the roster. Gordon, whose career began so long ago in 1988 with the Kansas City Royals, arrived in Philadelphia in 2006 to replace Billy Wagner as the team’s closer. Gordon, who had been setting up Mariano Rivera’s saves for the Yankees for the past several seasons, was a worrisome choice to replace the fire-balling Wagner. Was he up to the task? Well, Gordon actually did well in the first half of 2006, and was one of the Phillies three representatives in the All-Star Game in Pittsburgh. He saved 34 of 39 games for the Phillies with a 3-4 record and a 3.34 ERA. Gordon may not be firing 100 mph fastballs at hitters, but he was effective: 10.3 K/9, 3.09 K/BB ratio, just the sort of numbers you want from your setup man … Gordon struggled a little in 2007, seeing his ERA balloon to 4.72 and blowing five of eleven save opportunities. The closer job he lost to Brett Myers and the team brought in Brad Lidge this season to occupy the role. Gordon still will function as the Phillies set-up man, however, a nice counterpoint to the left-handed Romero. I like Gordon a lot and I think he’ll be effective, although I wonder if he might cede the set-up man role to Ryan Madson as the season wears on if he struggles. Gordon’s FIP ERA, which was 2.37 in ’04 and 3.55 in ’05 with the Yankees, remained at 3.86 in 2006, but spiked to 5.07. Fluke? Or age finally catching up to Gordon. Gordon many fewer strikeouts in 2007, but then he faced many fewer batters in ’07 than he had the year before and was battling injuries. The fifty point spike in his slugging percentage allowed might be a fluke or it might portend struggles to come. We shall see. I will go out on a limb and give a pessimistic assessment, and say that Ryan Madson will likely step into Gordon’s role as eighth inning setup guy for Brad Lidge by the time we get to the end of the season. Certainly Gordon’s performance in the ninth inning of Opening Day against the Nationals has done little to persuade me otherwise … Clay Condrey went 5-0 in 2007 with the Phillies, an excellent illustration of the reason why sabremetricians tend to ignore won-lost records in evaluating pitchers. Condrey did so with an ERA of 5.04 and a FIP of 4.31. Condrey’s 1.68 K/BB ratio was pretty uninspiring. He surrendered more walks than the N.L. average and got fewer strikeouts. I don’t expect to see too much from Condrey except in mop-up duty here and there … Finally we wrap up with Brad Lidge. Lidge was the Phillies biggest off-season acquisition, secured at the cost of a viable prospect (Mike Costanzo), one of the Phillies best base-stealers (Michael Bourn) and a reliable relief pitcher (Geoff Geary). The acquisition of Lidge is a major risk for the Phillies. They surrendered good talent to secure him as the team’s closer, a role Lidge occupied for the Astros from 2004 – 2007. In his first two years on the job Lidge was 71 of 79 saves with a 2.06 ERA. Then Lidge surrendered a post-season home run and hasn’t been the same. His ERA spiked to 5.28 in 2006 and he blew 6 of 38 save opportunities. Last year his ERA lowered to 3.36, but he blew 8 of 27 save opportunities. Can Lidge recapture that ’04 – ’05 magic? I think he can and the trick will be to lower those walk rates. For a closer Lidge allows a decent number of walks: 30 in 2007 (4.03 BB/9), 36 in 2006 (4.32 BB/9). He needs to lower that so that his phenomenal strikeout rate ca catch up. Check out Lidge’s strikeout rate between ’04 – ’07:
K/9:
2004: 14.93
2005: 13.12
2006: 12.48
2007: 11.82
Those are staggering numbers, not even ones that Billy Wagner, Lidge’s predecessor at both the Astros and Phillies closer could accomplish … Lidge begins the season on the D.L. and ought to return back shortly. His presence in the Phillies bullpen is essential to the Phillies long-term prospects because a bullpen-by-committee approach won’t work and Gordon probably can’t shoulder the load. If you are looking for a reason why the Phillies might miss the playoffs, look no further than Lidge’s balky knee … So there you are. That is the Phillies pitching preview. I’m sorry that it took me as long as it did, but it is done. Now, on to the fielders.
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So what is the Phillies pitching staff going to look like in 2008? Here are the probable starters and relievers:
Pitching Staff:
SP – Cole Hamels
SP – Brett Myers
SP – Jamie Moyer
SP – Kyle Kendrick
SP – Adam Eaton
RP – Chad Durbin
RP – Clay Condrey
RP – Ryan Madson
RP – J.C. Romero
RP – Tom Gordon
RP – Brad Lidge
Let’s begin with the guys that take the mound at the start of a game. The Phillies starters struggled in 2007, despite a revamped rotation that featured high-priced talent like former White Sox hurler Freddy Garcia and former Padre (and former Phillies draft pick) Adam Eaton. Injuries soon forced Brett Myers, the team’s Opening Day starter to the bullpen as the new closer, while Garcia struggled before going on the Disabled List. Suddenly the Phillies deep rotation looked thin as the team was forced to bring Double-A pitcher Kyle Kendrick to the show to fill the gap in the summer last year when Jon Lieber joined Garcia on the Disabled List. The team that began the season with six starters was suddenly down to three. The patchwork rotation did seem to work as the season progressed. Still, statistically, the Phillies starters posted some terrible numbers. As a team the Phillies tied for eleventh in the N.L. in Quality Starts in ’07 … a Quality Start is a start where the Phillies pitcher goes at least six innings and allow three or fewer runs … The Phillies had 74 of those in 2007. Just three teams had fewer: the Cardinals (70), the Nationals (60), and the Marlins (49). The Phillies starters rank twelfth in the N.L. in ERA and OBP-allowed and in terms of slugging percentage allowed, they ranked fifteenth. Phillies pitchers did rank first in the N.L. in run support at 6.05, which helps to explain why the team won games despite their pitchers struggling so much. Whereas the San Diego Padres were accustomed to winning 2-1 games, the Phillies were usually locked in 7-5 shoot-outs.
The 2008 Phillies starting rotation is set with Cole Hamels and Myers occupying the #1 and #2 slots, followed closely by Jamie Moyer, Kendrick and Eaton at # 3, 4 & 5 respectively. Let’s start with Hamels … The Phillies are fortunate to have Cole Hamels, their star, their ace pitcher, who takes the mound tonight against the Nationals. Since he joined the Phillies staff in May of 2006, after a whirlwind sprint through the Phillies minor league system, Hamels has been a critical part of the team’s success. After going 9-8 with a 4.08 ERA that year, Hamels put everything together in his sophomore season and went 15-5 with a 3.39 ERA in 2007. Had Hamels not been injured and missed five or six starts, he might have figured more prominently in the Cy Young Award voting (though Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb were the clear #1 and #2 for the award last season). Hamels steadying pitching meant everything to the Phillies last season. His fifteen strikeout performance against the Reds on April 21 was not only tied for the second-best pitching performance in the N.L. in 2007 – utilizing Bill James Game Score pitching stat, which awards and detracts points for certain events – but it was a vital game in that it helped snap the Phillies out of their 4-11 start and help get them started on making up ground on the Mets. Overall, Hamels struck-out 23.8% of the batter he faced and finished third in the N.L. in terms of strikeouts per nine innings with 8.69. Not impressed yet? Don’t think Hamels will factor in the N.L. Cy Young award voting now that the mighty Johan Santana is here to grapple with defending champ Jake Peavy? Check this out: Hamels 4.12 strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) ration was better than Cy Young award winner Peavy’s 3.53 … And contrary to the image of Hamels as a fire-baller who just goes to the mound hurling 95 mph heat, Hamels threw the second-highest percentage of sliders in the N.L. last season: 34.5% … Batters hit just .200 with runners in scoring position against Hamels, second-best in the N.L. after the Braves John Smoltz. Hamels is dominating and will be an integral part of the Phillies rotation until at least 2010, or longer if the Phillies can sign him to a long-term deal … You have to admire the work Brett Myers did last season with the Phillies. The team’s Opening Day starter last season and this season, Myers said nary a peep when he was yanked from the rotation and sent to the bullpen to bolster the team’s closer situation when Tom Gordon faltered. Myers put up good numbers in the bullpen, saving 21 of 24 games for the Phillies and striking out 83 batters in just 68 and two-thirds innings of work … I thought it was kind of interesting to compare the performance Myers did with the Phillies last year with what Smoltz did with the Atlanta Braves from ’01 – ’04, when he moved from the Braves rotation to become their lights out closer (saving 154 of 168 games for the Braves). No longer having to pace himself, Smoltz fired the fastballs by hitters in the eighth and ninth innings during those years. Similarly, Myers turned up the strikeout quotient from 8.69 K/9 in ’05 to 8.59 K/9 in ’06 to 10.88 last season … Myers was an excellent starter for the Phillies in’05 (13-8, 3.72 ERA) and ’06 (12-7, 3.91 ERA), and he should return to that form in 2008. As you can see, his strikeout rates were consistently high both of those seasons, and his walk rate was a modest 2.84 and 2.86 in ’05 and ’06. The only flaw Myers has as a pitcher is the surprisingly high number of home runs he surrendered in those two seasons: 60. This is surprising to me because Myers tends to get many, many more groundballs than flyballs when balls are put into play. Amongst the Phillies pitchers he was very prone towards grounders:
2007 G/F ratio:
Geoff Geary: 1.57
Kyle Kendrick: 1.55
Jon Lieber: 1.52
Brett Myers: 1.32
Cole Hamels: 1.13
Jamie Moyer: 1.08
Adam Eaton: 1.06
Kyle Lohse: 0.95
I tend to think pitchers like Myers or ex-Phillie Jon Lieber possess the tools to be a successful pitcher for the team because groundball pitchers don’t allow home runs and give their defenses the ability to make outs. At Citizens Bank Ballpark these skills are musts … There is a lot of diversity in the baseball world, however, and I admit that the numbers don’t sway you one way or the other. Brandon Webb, who pitches in the offense-friendly confines of Chase Field (111 Home Run and Run Factor in 2007), had a groundball/flyball ratio of 3.34 in 2007, which was basically the largest ratio of any pitcher in baseball. Webb is a pretty good pitcher: second in the Cy Young Voting and a previous winner of the award. Jake Peavy has a G/F ratio of just 1.24. Then there is this really good pitcher named Johan Santana. Last season Johan Santana’s G/F was 0.92. So there is a lot of diversity in the pitching world and there is no one way to be effective … Back to Myers. I really think that Myers will pull out all of the stops and will turn in a stunning performance this season, rivaling that of Hamels. The two are a terrific one-two punch. If I had to guess what each will do this season …
Hamels: 17-9, 3.75 ERA
Myers: 16-8, 3.85 ERA
But the Phillies rotation consists of more than Hamels, Myers and hoping for an off-day. Right after them is this guy named Moyer … It’s hard not to love what Jamie Moyer does. This will be his twenty-second season in the major leagues in a career that began with the Chicago Cubs in 1986 (I was nine years old and still in elementary school) and has seen him face 15,102 batters, win 230 games, and strikeout 2,125 hitters. At age 45 Moyer is beginning what might actually be his final season in the big leagues (it is the final season in a two-year deal he signed with the Phillies after he was dealt to the team from the Seattle Mariners in 2006) as he searches for that elusive World Series ring. Moyer has lasted so long in the majors because of his pitching style: he is a soft-tossing lefty like the Boston / Milwaukee Braves Warren Spahn, or the Atlanta Braves Tom Glavine. I think a few numbers will nicely illustrate what kind of a pitcher Moyer is: last season his fastball averaged 81.1 miles per hour, which made his the slowest in the National League. Moyer threw his fastball just 37.1% of the time, the lowest percentage of fastballs of any N.L. pitcher. Moyer’s favored pitch was the changeup, which he threw 28.2% of the time, the third-highest percentage of any N.L. pitcher. Crafty 'ol Jamie Moyer … Overall, Moyer’s results weren’t great in 2007. He posted a winning record at 14-12, but his ERA was 5.01. He allowed 30 home runs, or 1.35 HR/9, and the slugging percentage against him was a whopping .483 … Moyer increased his strikeout rate last season to 133 in 199 and one-thirds innings (6.0 K/9), which was a substantial jump over what he did in his final full season with the Seattle Mariners in 2005 (4.59 K/9). Moyer’s near 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio (2.01 K/BB in 2007) is a consistent trend of his throughout his career (1.86 in ’06 with the Mariners, and 1.96 in ’05) … Consistency is a nice theme when writing about Moyer. His 18 Quality Starts lead the Phillies and was roughly the same percentage of Quality Starts per start as Cole Hamels: 55% to 57% … The Bill James Handbook projects Moyer to go 11-10 with a 4.31 ERA in 2008. I think that’s about right. The Phillies have Moyer on the roster to provide veteran leadership and playoff experience (Moyer pitched well in the Phillies Game 3 loss to the Rockies in the NLDS last season), and to eat up 180-200 innings … Kyle Kendrick, victim of Brett Myers hilarious practical joke in the preseason, is set as the Phillies #4 starter, quite a jump for a guy who was in Double-A this time last season and probably didn’t expect to make it to Philadelphia until 2009. Kendrick’s career began a little early when injuries in the rotation forced him to Philly. Once here Kendrick made the most of his opportunity, going 10-4 with a 3.87 ERA. With 13 Quality Starts in 20 Starts, his 65% QS percentage was substantially better than Cole Hamels or Jamie Moyer last season. Bravo … But beneath the exterior or Kendrick’s success are some problems. Kendrick allowed a lot of balls to be put into play in 2007. Of the 499 batters he faced last year, he allowed 409 to put the ball into play. Kendrick struck-out an absurdly low percentage of batters: 49 in 121 innings, or 3.64 K/9. To his credit he didn’t walk many either: 1.85 BB/9. The key to Kendrick’s success was that Phillies fielders did a nice job converting those balls put into play into outs: they posted a .719 DER behind Kendrick, a groundball oriented pitcher. Thankfully for Kyle, he’s got a Gold Glove winner at shortstop and a future Gold Glove winner over at second base. What if the Phillies fielders don’t do that for Kendrick next season? Pitchers who rely on fielders rather than getting strike-outs tend to be very inconsistent and often get hammered. Their numbers yo-yo from season to season because the fluctuations in the quality of their defense, not their own abilities, decide the numbers. In Kendrick’s case he was also the product of excellent run support: a whopping 7.74 per nine innings pitched. That support helped Kendrick to tie for fourth in the National League in “Cheap Wins” (Bill James stat) with four. While Kendrick’s ERA was a solid 3.87, his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA was a more robust – and Adam Eaton-like – 4.90. DIPS, a stat I trust a little more because it takes into account Park Factors, pegged Kendrick’s “real” ERA at 4.85, which was worse than what Jamie Moyer did (4.73) and much worse than Cole Hamels (3.63). My sense is that Kendrick will pitch nowhere near as well as he did last season and his ERA will hover in the 4.50 – 4.70 range. Kendrick has already struggled in the preseason, allowing 14 runs in seven and two-thirds of an inning of work (16.43 ERA). The Bill James Handbook declined to issue predictions for Kendrick based on one season of data, but I’ll make my own: 8-10, with a 4.65 ERA in 2008 … How bad was Adam Eaton in 2007? I think the raw stats alone tell the story: 10-10, 6.29 ERA, .520 slugging percentage against, 71 walks and 30 home runs allowed in 161 and two-third innings pitched (3.95 BB/9, 1.67 HR/9). His 10-10 record, which looks pretty decent - and, incidentally, Bill James credits Eaton with five of those ten wins as “Cheap Wins” - is a nice illustration why wins and losses are largely irrelevant when judging a pitcher’s abilities. Eaton got a lot of run support – 5.62 runs per nine innings pitched – and he survived that way. Eaton did pitch roughly as badly as his ERA indicates. His FIP ERA was 5.93 and his DIPS ERA was 5.69. Eaton’s problem was not like Kendrick’s in that he relies too much on his fielders – the team’s .691 DER was pretty average – but that he allowed far too many home runs and walks last year. Given that he only threw 65 innings with the Texas Rangers in 2006, I wonder if the Phillies knew what they were getting when they acquired Eaton in 2007. I think the team focused too much on Eaton’s strong 11-5, 4.27 ERA performance as a member of the San Diego Padres in ’05, failing to take into account the “Petco Park” factor … The Bill James Handbook pegs Eaton’s performance at 8-10 with a 4.89 ERA in 2008, which I think is a reasonable projection … In the event that Eaton or Kendrick struggle and the Phillies find a need to fill the gap, they will most likely turn their attention towards Chad Durbin, the former Detroit Tigers player, who is slated to begin the season in the bullpen, but seems likely to join the rotation at some juncture of the season. Durbin pitched in 36 games for the Tigers last season, starting 19 of them. Durbin’s record was a so-so 8-7 with a 4.72 ERA. Durbin failed to pry away the #5 starting job from Adam Eaton in spring training – partly because the Phillies have $21 million dollars invested in Eaton over the 2007-2009 seasons – but the job might still be his. Durbin threw 127 innings with the Tigers in 2007 and will need to improve on some areas of his game to be a viable starter in the National League. Durbin’s K/BB ratio was a less than stellar 1.35. He allowed far too many walks – 3.45 BB/9 – to be a successful pitcher. Durbin also allowed a fair number of home runs (1.48 HR/9) at Comerica Park (which had a Home Run Factor of 114 in 2007), which makes me wonder how many dingers Durbin will give up in 2008 … Durbin’s high 4.72 ERA masks a worse FIP ERA of 5.73 and a DIPS ERA of 5.48. The reason why Durbin’s ERA was “just” 4.72 last season was because the White Sox played terrific defense behind him, converting .731 of the balls he allowed to be put into play to become outs. The Bill James Handbook gives a pessimistic 4-6, 5.00 ERA assessment of Durbin might be right on the money … Moving deeper into the bullpen … I feel like I ought to cover the bullpen as a separate topic from the starting pitching because the two have very different roles. The starter typically needs to get those 6 or 7 innings in, keep the Phillies in the lead, then turn over the game in the eighth inning to the bullpen so they can clamp down on the opposition for the final two innings. That concentration on preserving leads and focusing narrowly on just an inning or two is very, very different from the mentality of the starter, who needs to pace himself and survive more challenges. The Phillies bullpen, I might add, was a major reason why the Phillies made the playoffs in 2007 … Check out the relief corps ERA and Innings Pitching in September of last year:
Innings Pitched / ERA
Romero: 15.2 / 0.00
Geary: 17.0 / 2.65
Myers: 18 / 3.00
Condrey: 12.1 / 3.65
Gordon: 16 / 3.94
Yes, you read that correctly. In fifteen and two-thirds of an innings pitched, J.C. Romero didn’t allow a single run. Zip. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Romero, Geary, Myers, Condrey and Gordon threw a combined 78 innings, or 30% of the Phillies September innings. While Jimmy Rollins was winning the MVP award, the bullpen was quietly winning the Phillies their first playoff berth in fourteen years … The Phillies primary set up options are going to be Condrey, Romero, Ryan Madson and Tom Gordon. Let’s talk about them next … Ryan Madson has been with the Phillies since he caught the eye of Phillies bloggers with his exceptional performance out of the bullpen in 2004: 9-3, 2.34 ERA. The nine Win Shares he had during his rookie season remains a career high. After that season Madson has had a somewhat uneven career with the Phillies. He struggled a little more in 2005, as his ERA rose to 4.14, as did the number of home runs allowed (0.70 in ’04 to 1.14 in ’05). However he was still a solid pitcher and his strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) went from 2.89 in ’04 to 3.16 in ’05. The Phillies elected to give Madson a chance to become a starter in 2006, but he flopped in the role. He started 17 games and finished the season with an ERA of 5.69. His home runs spiked (1.34 HR/9), the slugging percentage allowed jumped nearly ninety points to .516, and his K/BB ration dropped below 2.00 to just 1.98. Back in the bullpen, Madson was largely back to his ’04 form, going 2-2 with a 3.05 ERA. His Home Runs allowed went from 1.34 to 0.80. Madson’s K/BB ration dropped (1.87), but he still clearly pitched better in his role in the bullpen … J.C. Romero, a cast-off from the Red Sox last season, was a startlingly welcome addition to the Phillies bullpen down the stretch. In 51 games with the Phillies Romero went 1-2 with a 1.24 ERA. But just those numbers don’t even come close to giving you the full story about Romero’s extraordinary season with the Phillies in 2007. Romero faced 143 batters in a Phillies uniform and threw 597 pitches. In that time he allowed just one home run (0.25 HR/9) and a .191 slugging percentage against. Romero is one of those pitchers who throws a lot of pitches because he doesn’t want to give a batter a chance to hit anything at all. Consider this: Romero threw 4.17 pitches per batter. How does that compare with some of the rest of the Phillies?:
Pitches / Batters Faced:
Romero: 4.2
Myers: 4.1
Hamels: 3.8
Gordon: 3.8
Madson: 3.7
Eaton: 3.7
Moyer: 3.6
Kendrick: 3.5
The consequence is that of the 143 batters Romero faced, he walked 25 (19%) and struck-out 31 (22%). To give you comparison, remember that 9% of batters in the N.L. walked and 17% struck-out last season. Romero is an opposite extreme to Kendrick. Just 61% of the batters he faced put the ball into play. That is pretty remarkable. Here is another remarkable fact: of the 87 batters who put balls into play against Romero, 64% of those were groundballs. The N.L. average for groundballs is 43% … Do I expect Romero to repeat a lot of those stats again in 2007? His 0.00 September ERA is an impossibility. While he did generally pitch well in 2007, Romero’s FIP ERA was 3.98, nearly three runs (specifically, 2.75 more) than his “real” ERA. A stunning 83.3% of the balls put into play behind Romero were turned into outs. Simply put, that will not happen again. A 3.00 ERA for Romero is far more likely this season … I wonder how many other baseball teams boast two pitchers over the age of 40 on their rosters. The Phillies do with 45-year old Jamie Moyer and with 40-year old reliever Tom Gordon on the roster. Gordon, whose career began so long ago in 1988 with the Kansas City Royals, arrived in Philadelphia in 2006 to replace Billy Wagner as the team’s closer. Gordon, who had been setting up Mariano Rivera’s saves for the Yankees for the past several seasons, was a worrisome choice to replace the fire-balling Wagner. Was he up to the task? Well, Gordon actually did well in the first half of 2006, and was one of the Phillies three representatives in the All-Star Game in Pittsburgh. He saved 34 of 39 games for the Phillies with a 3-4 record and a 3.34 ERA. Gordon may not be firing 100 mph fastballs at hitters, but he was effective: 10.3 K/9, 3.09 K/BB ratio, just the sort of numbers you want from your setup man … Gordon struggled a little in 2007, seeing his ERA balloon to 4.72 and blowing five of eleven save opportunities. The closer job he lost to Brett Myers and the team brought in Brad Lidge this season to occupy the role. Gordon still will function as the Phillies set-up man, however, a nice counterpoint to the left-handed Romero. I like Gordon a lot and I think he’ll be effective, although I wonder if he might cede the set-up man role to Ryan Madson as the season wears on if he struggles. Gordon’s FIP ERA, which was 2.37 in ’04 and 3.55 in ’05 with the Yankees, remained at 3.86 in 2006, but spiked to 5.07. Fluke? Or age finally catching up to Gordon. Gordon many fewer strikeouts in 2007, but then he faced many fewer batters in ’07 than he had the year before and was battling injuries. The fifty point spike in his slugging percentage allowed might be a fluke or it might portend struggles to come. We shall see. I will go out on a limb and give a pessimistic assessment, and say that Ryan Madson will likely step into Gordon’s role as eighth inning setup guy for Brad Lidge by the time we get to the end of the season. Certainly Gordon’s performance in the ninth inning of Opening Day against the Nationals has done little to persuade me otherwise … Clay Condrey went 5-0 in 2007 with the Phillies, an excellent illustration of the reason why sabremetricians tend to ignore won-lost records in evaluating pitchers. Condrey did so with an ERA of 5.04 and a FIP of 4.31. Condrey’s 1.68 K/BB ratio was pretty uninspiring. He surrendered more walks than the N.L. average and got fewer strikeouts. I don’t expect to see too much from Condrey except in mop-up duty here and there … Finally we wrap up with Brad Lidge. Lidge was the Phillies biggest off-season acquisition, secured at the cost of a viable prospect (Mike Costanzo), one of the Phillies best base-stealers (Michael Bourn) and a reliable relief pitcher (Geoff Geary). The acquisition of Lidge is a major risk for the Phillies. They surrendered good talent to secure him as the team’s closer, a role Lidge occupied for the Astros from 2004 – 2007. In his first two years on the job Lidge was 71 of 79 saves with a 2.06 ERA. Then Lidge surrendered a post-season home run and hasn’t been the same. His ERA spiked to 5.28 in 2006 and he blew 6 of 38 save opportunities. Last year his ERA lowered to 3.36, but he blew 8 of 27 save opportunities. Can Lidge recapture that ’04 – ’05 magic? I think he can and the trick will be to lower those walk rates. For a closer Lidge allows a decent number of walks: 30 in 2007 (4.03 BB/9), 36 in 2006 (4.32 BB/9). He needs to lower that so that his phenomenal strikeout rate ca catch up. Check out Lidge’s strikeout rate between ’04 – ’07:
K/9:
2004: 14.93
2005: 13.12
2006: 12.48
2007: 11.82
Those are staggering numbers, not even ones that Billy Wagner, Lidge’s predecessor at both the Astros and Phillies closer could accomplish … Lidge begins the season on the D.L. and ought to return back shortly. His presence in the Phillies bullpen is essential to the Phillies long-term prospects because a bullpen-by-committee approach won’t work and Gordon probably can’t shoulder the load. If you are looking for a reason why the Phillies might miss the playoffs, look no further than Lidge’s balky knee … So there you are. That is the Phillies pitching preview. I’m sorry that it took me as long as it did, but it is done. Now, on to the fielders.
Labels: Bullpen, Durbin, Eaton, Gordon, Hamels, Kenderick, Lidge, Madson, Moyer, Myers, Pitching, Predictions, Rotation
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Phillies Season Preview 2008: Batting
The Phillies 2008 season kicks off next Monday with Brett Myers taking the mound at 3:05 PM against the Washington Nationals in Citizens Bank Ballpark. I thought that I might give my two cents about this season and how it is going to unfold. If you’ve read my predictions for the National League you’ll know that I am projecting the Phillies to finish second in the N.L. East, edging out the Mets, but finishing behind the Braves and that the Phillies will flame out in the first round against the Diamondbacks. I’ve gotten a very negative reaction from Mets fans …
This will be an interesting season to watch: will the Phillies build on their division title in 2007? Or will last season prove to be a fluke? This will be an important year for the team, but not pivotal. The ’08 Phillies are a young team and will contend in 2009, in 2010 and 2011. The future is bright. Brighter, certainly, then the aging Mets.
The ’08 Phillies look like a team that will win 88-93 or so games, which will put them into the mix for the post-season. The D-Backs boasted the best record in the N.L. last season and that was just 90-72, only a game better than the Phillies. Even with Johan Santana hurling fastballs for the Mets the Phillies have a very good opportunity to make the playoffs this season. With the core of their ’08 team returning, the Phillies remain the team to beat in the N.L. East. Let’s start with the bats:
First off, here are some terms so that you are not totally confused about what I’m talking about. Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage. On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances). Walks per plate appearance (BB/PA): BB / PA = .BB/PA Avg. Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate. Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
Ordinarily I like to post a massive piece taking everything together, but I’ve found myself deluged at work and desperately trying to finish this project. I’m going to post my thoughts on batting first, then try and finish pitching and fielding later this week. Back to the Phillies …
The 2008 Phillies will have no problem scoring runs. The Phillies 892 runs scored in 2007 led the National league by a margin of 32 over the Colorado Rockies. The Phillies also led the N.L. in On-Base Percentage (.354), in Slugging Percentage (.458), and in triples (41). They finished second in home runs (213), in stolen bases (138). The Phillies lineup is only slightly changed from last season. Gone is Centerfielder Aaron Rowand and his surprisingly productive bat. Rowand hit 27 Home Runs, 45 Doubles, 89 RBI and scored 105 runs in 2007. His 100 Runs Created were a career high for Rowand, a talented hitter who doesn’t draw walks much (just 18 in 2006, 47 last season) and tends to see inconsistent results. In his place the Phillies intend to shift Shane Victorino over the centerfield (more on that later), and platoon Jayson Werth and Geoff Jenkins in rightfield. Werth and Jenkins will slide into Rowand’s slot and platoon as the #6 hitter. Pedro Feliz replaces the ineffectual trio of Wes Helms, Abraham Nunez and Greg Dobbs as the Phillies everyday third baseman, while Carlos Ruiz takes the reins as the regular catcher, a job he’s had off-and-on for the last two seasons.
Probable Lineup:
SS – Jimmy Rollins
CF – Shane Victorino
2B – Chase Utley
1B – Ryan Howard
LF – Pat Burrell
RF – Jayson Werth / Geoff Jenkins
3B – Pedro Feliz
C – Carlos Ruiz
P – Pitcher
Jimmy Rollins, the 2007 N.L. MVP, leads off for the Phillies in 2008. Rollins was spectacular in 2007, posting a career-high 124 Runs Created, and leading the league in triples for the fourth time in his career. Rollins batted .296 (.345 OBP), hit 30 home runs, 20 triples, 38 doubles, scored 139 runs, batted in 94, and stole 41 of the 47 bases he tried to steal. Simply put, Rollins was the catalyst for the Phillies N.L.-best offense. When Rollins first joined the Phillies he was primarily there for his speed. In his first season he stole 46 bases in 54 tries. Rollins still retained his speed: his 20 triples was a career high, and the 41 steals were fifth-best in the N.L. Rollins is also a superb baserunner: he didn’t make a single baserunning out last season and gained an extra 32 bases with his savvy running, according to the 2008 Bill James Handbook … 2007 was the culmination of a long maturation in Rollins game that began in 2004 when he underwent the tutelage of Tony Gwynn, the legendary contact hitter, prior to the 2004 season. After striking out 108, 103 and 113 times during his first three MLB seasons, Rollins has lowered that to 73, 71, 80 and 85 in ‘07, becoming a much better contact hitter. In addition to making contact, Rollins has also refined his power stroke. Prior to 2006, Rollins career-high for home runs had been 14. He hit 25 in 2006 and 30 last season, major increases in his raw power at the plate:
ISO:
2001: .145
2002: .135
2003: .124
2004: .166
2005: .141
2006: .201
2007: .235
Having a guy at the top of the order with so much speed and power at the plate is a rare combination and remind many of Rickey Henderson when he helped the Oakland A’s and Toronto Blue Jays to World Series titles in 1989 and 1993 respectively … as an aside, Rickey Henderson’s MVP campaign in 1990 – 28 home runs, 119 runs scored, 65 steals in 75 tries, a .439 OBP – compares very much to J.Roll’s ’07 campaign … Much was made about the fact that Rollins led the N.L. in outs last year with 527, but much less was made over the fact that Rollins also led the N.L. in plate appearances with 778. Rollins gained nearly as many bases as MVP-runner up Matt Holliday (386 to 380), and played a more-challenging defensive position well. Holliday also plays in a much more offensive-friendly park … Without Rollins exceptional production, the Phillies would have been sunk in 2007. How will J.Roll perform in 2008? Well, the 2008 Bill James Handbook projects a decline for Jimmy Rollins in 2008: 21 Home Runs, 10 triples, 41 doubles, 120 runs scored, 76 RBI, .339 OBP, 35 steals in 45 tries, and 108 Runs Created. No doubt that Rollins won’t quite achieve what he did last season, but I think he’ll hit more like 12-15 triples, and 22-25 home runs. He’ll still be a major threat and a major reason why the Phillies are a playoff contender … Next is Shane Victorino, a talent the Phillies stole from the San Diego Padres in the Rule 5 Draft in 2004. After playing most of the season in a part-time role in ‘06 (injuries to Aaron Rowand got him into centerfield for some time, then Victorino got some playing time after Bobby Abreu was dealt to the Yankees), Victorino got to become the Phillies everyday rightfielder in 2007 but missed about a month of the season with injuries. The Flyin’ Hawaiian (Victorino grew up on Maui) is a superb defensive outfielder (more on that later) and a speed demon. Victorino hit eight triples in 2006, a taste for the Phillies of what he would accomplish in 2007. Victorino hit another three triples and stole 37 of the 41 bases he tried to steal. Victorino does have to become a smarter player on the basepaths, however: he made four baserunning outs in 2007 and gained just seven extra bases with his running. Victorino also doesn’t have Rollins power at the plate: he hit just twelve home runs in 2007. His isolated power at the plate was just .142. He gives the Phillies exactly what they need in the two slot: a fast guy who gets on base (.347 OBP) and has a little power. The 2008 Bill James Handbook, by the way, projects Victorino to pretty much repeat his performance last season: 20 doubles, 5 triples, 12 home runs, 25 steals in 32 tries, a .336 OBP and 64 Runs Created … Consistency thy name is Chase Utley. I have a feeling that I’ll be writing a lot about Mr. Utley in the coming weeks for the 2008 season because he is my odds-on favorite to be the Phillies candidate for the MVP award, and if the Phillies are in the 2008 playoff hunt, he WILL be one of the top candidates. Had Utley not have missed a month of the season last year with a broken hand I think he might have actually beaten J.Roll out for the award. Chase Utley is a nearly perfect player: he’s a power hitter with speed who gets on base, hits well in the clutch and is the best fielder at a challenging defensive position. Last season Utley was third in the N.L. in batting average (.332), fifth in On-Base Percentage (.410), seventh in slugging percentage (.566), first in Hit By Pitches (25), first in Runs Created per 27 Outs (8.1), and he finished third in doubles (48, but he almost certainly would have bested Matt Holiday’s 50 had he not been injured). Simply put, Utley’s MVP candidacy died when he lost a month of the season after being hit by a pitch on July 26th against the Nationals. Had he not he probably would have edged Rollins out based on the fact that Utley’s adjusted OPS was better than his – 145 to 118 – and was even better than Ryan Howard’s 144 … Since taking the second base job in 2005 when Placido Polanco was dealt to the Tigers, Utley has been astonishingly consistent. Look at his three-year totals for Home Runs (28, 32, 22), for Doubles (39, 40, 48), for RBI (105, 102, 103) and OBP (.376, .379, .410). When the stakes are high Utley shines. Look at Utley’s BA/RISP:
2005: .309
2006: .308
2007: .304
I think 2008 will be Utley’s season to shine. He consistently plays a tough defensive position well, hits for power and average and runs the bases well. If Utley manages the feat he’d be the third Phillie to win the MVP award in three years, feat a trio of teammates haven’t done in the National League since Mort Cooper, Stan Musial and Marty Marion did it in ’42 – ’44 … I should note that Roger Maris, Mickey Mantle and Elston Howard did it from ’61 – ’63 in the American League … I think Utley’s chances are good … Here’s a fun fact: in 2007 Chase Utley finished eighth in OPS (On-Base Percentage plus Slugging Percentage) in the National League against sliders (1.086), against changeups (1.067), and against fastballs (.977). That’s consistency … Well, we’ve discussed one MVP and a potential MVP, so let’s discuss the other MVP on the Phillies roster: Ryan Howard. The $10 Million dollar man had failed to add an award to his mantle for the first time last season after being named the 2005 Rookie of the Year and 2006 National League MVP, but he still powered the Phillies with 47 home runs and 136 RBI. Off to a terrific start this spring it will be interesting to see if the Phillies and Howard can kiss and make up, or is the split between the two irreconcilable? If Howard were to flee the Phillies as a free agent and leave for Los Angeles or New York, the calamity the Phillies would be faced with would be awful. In the here and now, Howard powers the Phillies attack with his big bat. Last season Howard was second in the N.L. in home runs (three behind Prince Fielder), second in RBI (one behind Matt Holliday), fourth in walks (107), fifth in slugging percentage (.584), and first in strikeouts … In the last three seasons Ryan Howard has struck out 380 times in 1,700 plate appearances, meaning that he strikes-out 28.2% of the time. I personally think the strikeout is over-rated. An out is an out is an out. What is the big deal if the scorers card reads “K” or “F-7”? Arguably a strikeout is better than a walk: it takes a minimum of three pitches but usually five or six to actually strikeout. A pop-fly could be one pitch or two. What’s better: an out that uses up the pitchers arm? Or a quick out on a contact play? I’ll take the strikeout. The criticism that Howard strikes out too much is nonsense, I believe. Howard’s 4.20 pitches per plate appearance were third-best in the N.L. after Pat Burrell and Todd Helton … Howard plays a vital role in the Phillies offense because he ability to bash the 400-foot home run clears the bases and gives the Phillies the big innings that power them to 7-4 victories. I look for Howard to top 50+ home runs again this season and to hit 140-150 RBI. Is a second MVP award out of reach? Not really. Ryan Howard has the ability to build on his MVP campaign in 2006 with an even better one in 2008. He also has, according to the 2008 Bill James Handbook, an 11% chance of hitting 700 or home runs, which means that he could challenge Barry Bonds 762 home runs one day in the future. At 129 in just two and a half MLB seasons, he’s well on his way … Pat Burrell enters the sixth and final year of a deal that he signed in the wake of his spectacular 2002 season, when he seemed to step into Scott Rolen’s shoes and become the focal point of the franchise. Burrell hit 37 home runs, 39 doubles and 116 RBI with a .376 OBP that season, a real breakthrough for the first overall pick in the 1998 Draft, and numbers that seemed to cement the powerful, athletic Burrell as the face of the franchise. He was going to do what Scott Rolen couldn’t or wouldn’t: become the greatest Phillie since Mike Schmidt. With the announcement that the Phillies had acquired Jim Thome heading into the ’03 season, the sky seemed the limit for Burrell. Schmidt, as I recall, predicted the duo would hit 100+ home runs together … Instead, Burrell’s horrific 2003 campaign, where he hit just 21 home runs and 64 RBI, and saw his adjusted OPS fall from 146 to 90, destroyed his promising future … Burrell’s Win Shares plunged from 25 to 9 … It was a terrible decline for a player who had once seemed like the next superstar on a team that hadn’t had one in twenty years. He spent nearly all season in 2004 regaining his stroke. Burrell’s OBP rebounded to .365, but his raw power at the plate remained flat: .195 ISO in 2003, .198 ISO in 2004. Burrell had 117 RBI in 2005, a career-high, but his production wasn’t quite the same. He still put up great numbers in ’05 – ’07, but he became a different player statistically – more of an OBP threat, more of a defensive liability – and the trauma of ’03 – ’04 remained in the minds of Phillies fans ... The shame of it is that while Pat Burrell isn’t the same player that he was in 2002, he’s a critical cog in the Phillies offense. In 2007 Pat Burrell hit 30 home runs, had 97 RBI, drew a whopping 114 walks and posted an OBP of .400 … Burrell was third in the N.L. in walks and ninth in On-Base Percentage. His 4.22 pitches per plate appearance were second to just the Rockies Todd Helton at 4.36. Burrell is no-longer an aggressive free-swinger at the plate. He’s a cautious, meticulous player. Unfortunately people buy into the image of the swaggering free swinger, so Burrell’s contributions go entirely unnoticed. The fact that he takes 63.8% of the pitches he sees – fourth in the N.L. – means that Burrell isn’t up there hacking away heroically. Interestingly, 40% of Burrell’s plate appearances ended in walks or strikeouts: outcomes where the ball was never put into play. The fact that he is often removed for a defensive substitution now is another blow to his image as the swaggering heir to Mike Schmidt. The fact is that after Ryan Howard, Burrell might be the most powerful bat the Phillies have in their lineup:
HR/AB:
Howard: 11.3
Burrell: 15.7
Rollins: 23.9
Utley: 24.9
After Howard, whose bat moves runners off the bases more efficiently? No, Phillies fans don’t trust Pat Burrell because he isn’t the heroic leader of the team anymore. Nobody who draws a walk 20% of the time he goes to the plate can be a leader, can he? … What can Burrell do in 2008? I see another 110-120 walk season with 30-35 home runs, 95-105 RBI and little respect in store for Burrell this season. I also think he’ll get off to a nice start too, because his OPS in the second half of the season last years was 1.010, seventh-best in the N.L. … The Phillies plan to platoon Jayson Weth and Geoff Jenkins in rightfield in 2008. Werth, the former Dodger, joined the Phillies last season enjoyed impressive success as the Phillies fourth outfielder, hitting 8 home runs with 49 RBI and 43 runs scored in limited action (just 304 plate appearances). Werth’s 55 Runs Created in 183 Outs meant that Werth had 8.11 Runs Created per 27 Outs, one of the best percentages in all of baseball, had he earned enough plate appearances to qualify. What was impressive about Werth’s performance was how he consistently got hits when he put the ball into play (.386 BA/BIP), worked counts to draw walks (.145 walks per plate appearance, which helped his OBP to a staggering .404) and the fact that he didn’t ground into a single double play last season. That’s right. Not a one. Zip. Zero. Zilch. Werth also hit an astonishing .379 with runners in scoring position. Naturally, I don’t expect Werth to entirely replicate his impressive .298 batting average in 2008, but his OBP ought to be in that .360 - .370 range again. Not just an OBP machine, Werth has impressive skill at the plate in terms of power: his 22 extra-base hits might not sound impressive, but given his limited action they were impressive. Werth;s Isolated Power at the plate was an impressive .161 … Jenkins, a left-handed hitter, will join the right-handed Werth in the outfield platoon. Geoff Jenkins was a long-time member of the Milwaukee Brewers and no longer fit into their plans. Might Jenkins acquisition, like Werth’s and Greg Dobbs and Chris Coste’s and David Dellucci’s, be another savvy move made by the Phillies high-command to rescue a seemingly washed up player from the slag heap and find a useful role? Jenkins isn’t the solid get-on-base with some power guy that Werth is. Jenkins is a slugger: his 32 walks in 464 plate appearances gave him an average .069 BB/PA. Jenkins hit 21 home runs and 24 doubles for the Brewers and posted a .216 isolated power last season. I hope, in comparing Werth and Jenkins, that the Phillies give more playing time to Werth and utilize Jenkins in later innings as a pinch-hitter when his capacity to stroke 400-foot home runs might be more useful. Jenkins and Werth give the Phillies a flexible platoon to replace Rowand, who used to hit in the sixth slot. I know there was much hand-wringing from Phillies fans over Rowand’s departure in the off-season, but it is silly. The Phillies could never have offered Rowand the money that the Giants, so desperate to move out of the Barry Bonds era, could have. Inking Rowand, an over-rated defensive outfielder who enjoyed a career year at the plate last season to a long-term deal would have been foolish. Check out the numbers the Bill James Handbook projects Jenkins, Werth and Rowand to post this season:
Runs Created / 27 Outs (Projected):
Jayson Werth: 6.12
Aaron Rowand: 5.63
Geoff Jenkins: 5.29
Rowand was a free-swinger who surprised everyone with an impressive .345 BA/BIP last season. Werth, and to a lesser-extent Jenkins, are savvier hitters at the plate than Rowand. Hard as it may be for Phillies fans to accept, the Phillies will hit better with Werth and Jenkins than Rowand … Moving along to the seventh slot in the Phillies lineup we encounter Pedro Feliz. The Phillies got awful production out of their third basemen in 2007, a sad fact for a team that featured the greatest third baseman of all-time just a quarter century ago. Greg Dobbs, Wes Helms and Abraham Nunez all played significant time and all, to varying degrees, failed to deliver consistent production. Helms, acquired from the Florida Marlins, was a flop, hitting .198 with runners in scoring position, just 24 extra-base hits (and just five of those were home runs), a horrible .297 OBP and an OPS+ of 88. Nunez had an OBP of .318 and an OPS of 79. Dobbs hit better last season (see below) but remains more of a pinch-hitter type of player than an every day player. The Phillies hope all of that changes with Feliz, a former San Francisco Giant. I’m frankly not impressed by the move, despite Feliz’s hot start in spring training. Perhaps Feliz will post better numbers playing in a cozy park like Citizens Bank, but some of the numbers suggest that Feliz will have issues. Let’s start with the fact that Feliz has had a sub-.300 OBP each of the last three seasons: .290 in ’07, .282 in ’06, and .295 in ’05. So the Phillies didn’t acquire Feliz for his capacity to get on base – his .049 BB/PA was the third-worst in the National League last season – can Feliz hit the ball? Well, Feliz has hit 84 home runs over the last four seasons, but that isn’t that impressive in this modern age. Disturbingly, Feliz’s isolated power has been on a trend downwards: .209 in 2004, .172 in 2005, .184 in 2006, and .165 last season. Feliz hit well with runners in scoring position last season – .310 – but in every other respect, his performance last season ought not to fill Phillies fans with hope. It should fill them with dread … Finally we get down to the catchers slot. With Rod Barajas gone the catchers slot firmly belongs to Carlos Ruiz. After being over-shadowed by Chris Coste, the thirty-something minor-leaguer (whose book I am busy reading and will shortly post a review of) who burst onto the scene in 2006, Ruiz got a lot of playing time last year and made the most of it. He hit just six home runs, but hit an impressive 29 doubles and two triples in 429 plate appearances. Surprisingly for a catcher, he was successful in six of his seven stolen base attempts. Ruiz displayed a good eye at the plate, drawing 42 walks against 49 strikeouts. His .280 batting average with runners in scoring position was pretty good. The only real surprise when looking at Ruiz’s stats was that he grounded into 17 double plays, an awfully high percentage for a guy who doesn’t play more than 70-80% of the time … That’s the Phillies starting lineup, a fearsome collection of bats that will score 850-to-900 runs next season. Here is what the Phillies bench will probably look like:
Bench:
OF – So Taguchi
IF/ OF – Greg Dobbs
IF – Wes Helms
IF – Eric Buntlett
IF / C- Chris Coste
Of the Phillies bench players, the first bat off the bench (after Jenkins or Werth) will be Greg Dobbs, who hit ten home runs and 55 RBI in 2007 in very limited action. Dobbs, who never got to play much in Seattle, finally got a chance to show what he can do. The Phillies like Dobbs a lot because he can play first base, he can play third, and he can play in the outfield. He’s the sort of versatile guy you want on your team … Chris Coste is a great story – give me a few days and I’ll finally get finished typing my review of his book, The 33-Year old Rookie – a career Minor Leaguer who jumped around in the Red Sox, Pirates and Indians systems before finding his way to Philadelphia in 2006. Pressed into duty with the injuries to Mike Lieberthal and Sal Fasano, Coste stunned observers by hitting .328 (.376 OBP) along with 7 home runs and 32 RBI in just 213 plate appearances. Coste played more sparingly in 2007, getting about 80 fewer turns at the plate and hitting .279. Coste’s OPS fell from .881 to .730 last season. The only thing I don’t like about Coste is his refusal to draw walks. He drew just four last season in 137 plate appearances and ten in 213 in 2006. Usually, I think an inability to draw walks is fatal to a player’s performance, but I still like seeing Chris Coste’s #27 on the Phillies roster. His defense improved last year (more on that later) and he became a more rounded player. He seems fated to be the Phillies backup catcher and a dangerous bat off the bench … Eric Bruntlett was a throw-in piece to the Brad Lidge deal and he seems fated to play the role of the new Abraham Nunez: the light-hitting defensive player you never want to see holding a bat at the plate in the bottom of the ninth. Bruntlett played sparingly with the Astros over the last few years and when he did he contributed little to the team’s offense. Bruntlett’s OPS for the last several years has been .705 in 2005, .695 in 2006, and .629 last season … So Taguchi joins the Phillies after spending the last several years with the St. Louis Cardinals as their reserve outfielder / pinch-hitter / pinch-runner. Taguchi is this year’s Michael Bourn, the speedy outfielder who stole 18 of 19 bases in a largely pinch-runner / defensive replacement role in 2007 for the Phillies. Taguchi has hit just 19 home runs in his MLB career, but has stolen 36 of 48 bases. Disturbingly, in exceedingly limited play last year Taguchi grounded into ten double plays … Securing the Phillies final roster slot will be Wes Helms. Based on comments from General Manager Pat Gillick the Phillies seem likely to bring 14 position players and 11 pitchers north with them, but the Phillies might go with 12 pitchers and 13 position players if they feel that they need a deeper bullpen. If they go with 12 pitchers then Helms won’t have a job anymore. (That’s good news for Clay Condrey, who seems likely to make the team only if Helms doesn’t.) I personally would prefer to see Condrey make the team over Helms. Helms was awful in 2007, hitting just five home runs and 39 RBI (and 24 Runs Created). The Phillies brought him onto the team after his strong part-time performance with the Marlins in 2006, when he posted a .390 OBP and 45 Runs Created in just 240 At-Bats. Helms OBP collapsed almost 100 points to .297 last year and he didn’t hit for power at all. The consequence was the Phillies had a light-hitting power hitter who grounded into a lot of double plays: ten. Perhaps 2007 was a fluke, but I am skeptical. Helms will have to do a lot better in ’08 to justify a roster spot, especially since the Phillies have a third baseman – Pedro Feliz – and a capable backup – Greg Dobbs – already.
What kind of a performance will the Phillies turn in this season? I’m going to project them to hit about 200 home runs, to steal 100-110 bases, to hit 320-330 doubles, and to score 900 runs. Ryan Howard will top 50 home runs and Chase Utley will make a powerful statement to MVP voters with an OBP over .400, a .300+ Batting Average, 110 RBI, 25 or so Home Runs, and 50 Doubles. If you are looking for a player to surprise you, I’d take a look at Shane Victorino. I think he’ll improve his OBP this season and will steal 45 to 50 bases, as well as hit 7 to 10 triples.
So those are the hitters. I ought to post the pitchers on Thursday and the Fielders on Friday or Saturday. No guarantees.
(4) comments
This will be an interesting season to watch: will the Phillies build on their division title in 2007? Or will last season prove to be a fluke? This will be an important year for the team, but not pivotal. The ’08 Phillies are a young team and will contend in 2009, in 2010 and 2011. The future is bright. Brighter, certainly, then the aging Mets.
The ’08 Phillies look like a team that will win 88-93 or so games, which will put them into the mix for the post-season. The D-Backs boasted the best record in the N.L. last season and that was just 90-72, only a game better than the Phillies. Even with Johan Santana hurling fastballs for the Mets the Phillies have a very good opportunity to make the playoffs this season. With the core of their ’08 team returning, the Phillies remain the team to beat in the N.L. East. Let’s start with the bats:
First off, here are some terms so that you are not totally confused about what I’m talking about. Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage. On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances). Walks per plate appearance (BB/PA): BB / PA = .BB/PA Avg. Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate. Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
Ordinarily I like to post a massive piece taking everything together, but I’ve found myself deluged at work and desperately trying to finish this project. I’m going to post my thoughts on batting first, then try and finish pitching and fielding later this week. Back to the Phillies …
The 2008 Phillies will have no problem scoring runs. The Phillies 892 runs scored in 2007 led the National league by a margin of 32 over the Colorado Rockies. The Phillies also led the N.L. in On-Base Percentage (.354), in Slugging Percentage (.458), and in triples (41). They finished second in home runs (213), in stolen bases (138). The Phillies lineup is only slightly changed from last season. Gone is Centerfielder Aaron Rowand and his surprisingly productive bat. Rowand hit 27 Home Runs, 45 Doubles, 89 RBI and scored 105 runs in 2007. His 100 Runs Created were a career high for Rowand, a talented hitter who doesn’t draw walks much (just 18 in 2006, 47 last season) and tends to see inconsistent results. In his place the Phillies intend to shift Shane Victorino over the centerfield (more on that later), and platoon Jayson Werth and Geoff Jenkins in rightfield. Werth and Jenkins will slide into Rowand’s slot and platoon as the #6 hitter. Pedro Feliz replaces the ineffectual trio of Wes Helms, Abraham Nunez and Greg Dobbs as the Phillies everyday third baseman, while Carlos Ruiz takes the reins as the regular catcher, a job he’s had off-and-on for the last two seasons.
Probable Lineup:
SS – Jimmy Rollins
CF – Shane Victorino
2B – Chase Utley
1B – Ryan Howard
LF – Pat Burrell
RF – Jayson Werth / Geoff Jenkins
3B – Pedro Feliz
C – Carlos Ruiz
P – Pitcher
Jimmy Rollins, the 2007 N.L. MVP, leads off for the Phillies in 2008. Rollins was spectacular in 2007, posting a career-high 124 Runs Created, and leading the league in triples for the fourth time in his career. Rollins batted .296 (.345 OBP), hit 30 home runs, 20 triples, 38 doubles, scored 139 runs, batted in 94, and stole 41 of the 47 bases he tried to steal. Simply put, Rollins was the catalyst for the Phillies N.L.-best offense. When Rollins first joined the Phillies he was primarily there for his speed. In his first season he stole 46 bases in 54 tries. Rollins still retained his speed: his 20 triples was a career high, and the 41 steals were fifth-best in the N.L. Rollins is also a superb baserunner: he didn’t make a single baserunning out last season and gained an extra 32 bases with his savvy running, according to the 2008 Bill James Handbook … 2007 was the culmination of a long maturation in Rollins game that began in 2004 when he underwent the tutelage of Tony Gwynn, the legendary contact hitter, prior to the 2004 season. After striking out 108, 103 and 113 times during his first three MLB seasons, Rollins has lowered that to 73, 71, 80 and 85 in ‘07, becoming a much better contact hitter. In addition to making contact, Rollins has also refined his power stroke. Prior to 2006, Rollins career-high for home runs had been 14. He hit 25 in 2006 and 30 last season, major increases in his raw power at the plate:
ISO:
2001: .145
2002: .135
2003: .124
2004: .166
2005: .141
2006: .201
2007: .235
Having a guy at the top of the order with so much speed and power at the plate is a rare combination and remind many of Rickey Henderson when he helped the Oakland A’s and Toronto Blue Jays to World Series titles in 1989 and 1993 respectively … as an aside, Rickey Henderson’s MVP campaign in 1990 – 28 home runs, 119 runs scored, 65 steals in 75 tries, a .439 OBP – compares very much to J.Roll’s ’07 campaign … Much was made about the fact that Rollins led the N.L. in outs last year with 527, but much less was made over the fact that Rollins also led the N.L. in plate appearances with 778. Rollins gained nearly as many bases as MVP-runner up Matt Holliday (386 to 380), and played a more-challenging defensive position well. Holliday also plays in a much more offensive-friendly park … Without Rollins exceptional production, the Phillies would have been sunk in 2007. How will J.Roll perform in 2008? Well, the 2008 Bill James Handbook projects a decline for Jimmy Rollins in 2008: 21 Home Runs, 10 triples, 41 doubles, 120 runs scored, 76 RBI, .339 OBP, 35 steals in 45 tries, and 108 Runs Created. No doubt that Rollins won’t quite achieve what he did last season, but I think he’ll hit more like 12-15 triples, and 22-25 home runs. He’ll still be a major threat and a major reason why the Phillies are a playoff contender … Next is Shane Victorino, a talent the Phillies stole from the San Diego Padres in the Rule 5 Draft in 2004. After playing most of the season in a part-time role in ‘06 (injuries to Aaron Rowand got him into centerfield for some time, then Victorino got some playing time after Bobby Abreu was dealt to the Yankees), Victorino got to become the Phillies everyday rightfielder in 2007 but missed about a month of the season with injuries. The Flyin’ Hawaiian (Victorino grew up on Maui) is a superb defensive outfielder (more on that later) and a speed demon. Victorino hit eight triples in 2006, a taste for the Phillies of what he would accomplish in 2007. Victorino hit another three triples and stole 37 of the 41 bases he tried to steal. Victorino does have to become a smarter player on the basepaths, however: he made four baserunning outs in 2007 and gained just seven extra bases with his running. Victorino also doesn’t have Rollins power at the plate: he hit just twelve home runs in 2007. His isolated power at the plate was just .142. He gives the Phillies exactly what they need in the two slot: a fast guy who gets on base (.347 OBP) and has a little power. The 2008 Bill James Handbook, by the way, projects Victorino to pretty much repeat his performance last season: 20 doubles, 5 triples, 12 home runs, 25 steals in 32 tries, a .336 OBP and 64 Runs Created … Consistency thy name is Chase Utley. I have a feeling that I’ll be writing a lot about Mr. Utley in the coming weeks for the 2008 season because he is my odds-on favorite to be the Phillies candidate for the MVP award, and if the Phillies are in the 2008 playoff hunt, he WILL be one of the top candidates. Had Utley not have missed a month of the season last year with a broken hand I think he might have actually beaten J.Roll out for the award. Chase Utley is a nearly perfect player: he’s a power hitter with speed who gets on base, hits well in the clutch and is the best fielder at a challenging defensive position. Last season Utley was third in the N.L. in batting average (.332), fifth in On-Base Percentage (.410), seventh in slugging percentage (.566), first in Hit By Pitches (25), first in Runs Created per 27 Outs (8.1), and he finished third in doubles (48, but he almost certainly would have bested Matt Holiday’s 50 had he not been injured). Simply put, Utley’s MVP candidacy died when he lost a month of the season after being hit by a pitch on July 26th against the Nationals. Had he not he probably would have edged Rollins out based on the fact that Utley’s adjusted OPS was better than his – 145 to 118 – and was even better than Ryan Howard’s 144 … Since taking the second base job in 2005 when Placido Polanco was dealt to the Tigers, Utley has been astonishingly consistent. Look at his three-year totals for Home Runs (28, 32, 22), for Doubles (39, 40, 48), for RBI (105, 102, 103) and OBP (.376, .379, .410). When the stakes are high Utley shines. Look at Utley’s BA/RISP:
2005: .309
2006: .308
2007: .304
I think 2008 will be Utley’s season to shine. He consistently plays a tough defensive position well, hits for power and average and runs the bases well. If Utley manages the feat he’d be the third Phillie to win the MVP award in three years, feat a trio of teammates haven’t done in the National League since Mort Cooper, Stan Musial and Marty Marion did it in ’42 – ’44 … I should note that Roger Maris, Mickey Mantle and Elston Howard did it from ’61 – ’63 in the American League … I think Utley’s chances are good … Here’s a fun fact: in 2007 Chase Utley finished eighth in OPS (On-Base Percentage plus Slugging Percentage) in the National League against sliders (1.086), against changeups (1.067), and against fastballs (.977). That’s consistency … Well, we’ve discussed one MVP and a potential MVP, so let’s discuss the other MVP on the Phillies roster: Ryan Howard. The $10 Million dollar man had failed to add an award to his mantle for the first time last season after being named the 2005 Rookie of the Year and 2006 National League MVP, but he still powered the Phillies with 47 home runs and 136 RBI. Off to a terrific start this spring it will be interesting to see if the Phillies and Howard can kiss and make up, or is the split between the two irreconcilable? If Howard were to flee the Phillies as a free agent and leave for Los Angeles or New York, the calamity the Phillies would be faced with would be awful. In the here and now, Howard powers the Phillies attack with his big bat. Last season Howard was second in the N.L. in home runs (three behind Prince Fielder), second in RBI (one behind Matt Holliday), fourth in walks (107), fifth in slugging percentage (.584), and first in strikeouts … In the last three seasons Ryan Howard has struck out 380 times in 1,700 plate appearances, meaning that he strikes-out 28.2% of the time. I personally think the strikeout is over-rated. An out is an out is an out. What is the big deal if the scorers card reads “K” or “F-7”? Arguably a strikeout is better than a walk: it takes a minimum of three pitches but usually five or six to actually strikeout. A pop-fly could be one pitch or two. What’s better: an out that uses up the pitchers arm? Or a quick out on a contact play? I’ll take the strikeout. The criticism that Howard strikes out too much is nonsense, I believe. Howard’s 4.20 pitches per plate appearance were third-best in the N.L. after Pat Burrell and Todd Helton … Howard plays a vital role in the Phillies offense because he ability to bash the 400-foot home run clears the bases and gives the Phillies the big innings that power them to 7-4 victories. I look for Howard to top 50+ home runs again this season and to hit 140-150 RBI. Is a second MVP award out of reach? Not really. Ryan Howard has the ability to build on his MVP campaign in 2006 with an even better one in 2008. He also has, according to the 2008 Bill James Handbook, an 11% chance of hitting 700 or home runs, which means that he could challenge Barry Bonds 762 home runs one day in the future. At 129 in just two and a half MLB seasons, he’s well on his way … Pat Burrell enters the sixth and final year of a deal that he signed in the wake of his spectacular 2002 season, when he seemed to step into Scott Rolen’s shoes and become the focal point of the franchise. Burrell hit 37 home runs, 39 doubles and 116 RBI with a .376 OBP that season, a real breakthrough for the first overall pick in the 1998 Draft, and numbers that seemed to cement the powerful, athletic Burrell as the face of the franchise. He was going to do what Scott Rolen couldn’t or wouldn’t: become the greatest Phillie since Mike Schmidt. With the announcement that the Phillies had acquired Jim Thome heading into the ’03 season, the sky seemed the limit for Burrell. Schmidt, as I recall, predicted the duo would hit 100+ home runs together … Instead, Burrell’s horrific 2003 campaign, where he hit just 21 home runs and 64 RBI, and saw his adjusted OPS fall from 146 to 90, destroyed his promising future … Burrell’s Win Shares plunged from 25 to 9 … It was a terrible decline for a player who had once seemed like the next superstar on a team that hadn’t had one in twenty years. He spent nearly all season in 2004 regaining his stroke. Burrell’s OBP rebounded to .365, but his raw power at the plate remained flat: .195 ISO in 2003, .198 ISO in 2004. Burrell had 117 RBI in 2005, a career-high, but his production wasn’t quite the same. He still put up great numbers in ’05 – ’07, but he became a different player statistically – more of an OBP threat, more of a defensive liability – and the trauma of ’03 – ’04 remained in the minds of Phillies fans ... The shame of it is that while Pat Burrell isn’t the same player that he was in 2002, he’s a critical cog in the Phillies offense. In 2007 Pat Burrell hit 30 home runs, had 97 RBI, drew a whopping 114 walks and posted an OBP of .400 … Burrell was third in the N.L. in walks and ninth in On-Base Percentage. His 4.22 pitches per plate appearance were second to just the Rockies Todd Helton at 4.36. Burrell is no-longer an aggressive free-swinger at the plate. He’s a cautious, meticulous player. Unfortunately people buy into the image of the swaggering free swinger, so Burrell’s contributions go entirely unnoticed. The fact that he takes 63.8% of the pitches he sees – fourth in the N.L. – means that Burrell isn’t up there hacking away heroically. Interestingly, 40% of Burrell’s plate appearances ended in walks or strikeouts: outcomes where the ball was never put into play. The fact that he is often removed for a defensive substitution now is another blow to his image as the swaggering heir to Mike Schmidt. The fact is that after Ryan Howard, Burrell might be the most powerful bat the Phillies have in their lineup:
HR/AB:
Howard: 11.3
Burrell: 15.7
Rollins: 23.9
Utley: 24.9
After Howard, whose bat moves runners off the bases more efficiently? No, Phillies fans don’t trust Pat Burrell because he isn’t the heroic leader of the team anymore. Nobody who draws a walk 20% of the time he goes to the plate can be a leader, can he? … What can Burrell do in 2008? I see another 110-120 walk season with 30-35 home runs, 95-105 RBI and little respect in store for Burrell this season. I also think he’ll get off to a nice start too, because his OPS in the second half of the season last years was 1.010, seventh-best in the N.L. … The Phillies plan to platoon Jayson Weth and Geoff Jenkins in rightfield in 2008. Werth, the former Dodger, joined the Phillies last season enjoyed impressive success as the Phillies fourth outfielder, hitting 8 home runs with 49 RBI and 43 runs scored in limited action (just 304 plate appearances). Werth’s 55 Runs Created in 183 Outs meant that Werth had 8.11 Runs Created per 27 Outs, one of the best percentages in all of baseball, had he earned enough plate appearances to qualify. What was impressive about Werth’s performance was how he consistently got hits when he put the ball into play (.386 BA/BIP), worked counts to draw walks (.145 walks per plate appearance, which helped his OBP to a staggering .404) and the fact that he didn’t ground into a single double play last season. That’s right. Not a one. Zip. Zero. Zilch. Werth also hit an astonishing .379 with runners in scoring position. Naturally, I don’t expect Werth to entirely replicate his impressive .298 batting average in 2008, but his OBP ought to be in that .360 - .370 range again. Not just an OBP machine, Werth has impressive skill at the plate in terms of power: his 22 extra-base hits might not sound impressive, but given his limited action they were impressive. Werth;s Isolated Power at the plate was an impressive .161 … Jenkins, a left-handed hitter, will join the right-handed Werth in the outfield platoon. Geoff Jenkins was a long-time member of the Milwaukee Brewers and no longer fit into their plans. Might Jenkins acquisition, like Werth’s and Greg Dobbs and Chris Coste’s and David Dellucci’s, be another savvy move made by the Phillies high-command to rescue a seemingly washed up player from the slag heap and find a useful role? Jenkins isn’t the solid get-on-base with some power guy that Werth is. Jenkins is a slugger: his 32 walks in 464 plate appearances gave him an average .069 BB/PA. Jenkins hit 21 home runs and 24 doubles for the Brewers and posted a .216 isolated power last season. I hope, in comparing Werth and Jenkins, that the Phillies give more playing time to Werth and utilize Jenkins in later innings as a pinch-hitter when his capacity to stroke 400-foot home runs might be more useful. Jenkins and Werth give the Phillies a flexible platoon to replace Rowand, who used to hit in the sixth slot. I know there was much hand-wringing from Phillies fans over Rowand’s departure in the off-season, but it is silly. The Phillies could never have offered Rowand the money that the Giants, so desperate to move out of the Barry Bonds era, could have. Inking Rowand, an over-rated defensive outfielder who enjoyed a career year at the plate last season to a long-term deal would have been foolish. Check out the numbers the Bill James Handbook projects Jenkins, Werth and Rowand to post this season:
Runs Created / 27 Outs (Projected):
Jayson Werth: 6.12
Aaron Rowand: 5.63
Geoff Jenkins: 5.29
Rowand was a free-swinger who surprised everyone with an impressive .345 BA/BIP last season. Werth, and to a lesser-extent Jenkins, are savvier hitters at the plate than Rowand. Hard as it may be for Phillies fans to accept, the Phillies will hit better with Werth and Jenkins than Rowand … Moving along to the seventh slot in the Phillies lineup we encounter Pedro Feliz. The Phillies got awful production out of their third basemen in 2007, a sad fact for a team that featured the greatest third baseman of all-time just a quarter century ago. Greg Dobbs, Wes Helms and Abraham Nunez all played significant time and all, to varying degrees, failed to deliver consistent production. Helms, acquired from the Florida Marlins, was a flop, hitting .198 with runners in scoring position, just 24 extra-base hits (and just five of those were home runs), a horrible .297 OBP and an OPS+ of 88. Nunez had an OBP of .318 and an OPS of 79. Dobbs hit better last season (see below) but remains more of a pinch-hitter type of player than an every day player. The Phillies hope all of that changes with Feliz, a former San Francisco Giant. I’m frankly not impressed by the move, despite Feliz’s hot start in spring training. Perhaps Feliz will post better numbers playing in a cozy park like Citizens Bank, but some of the numbers suggest that Feliz will have issues. Let’s start with the fact that Feliz has had a sub-.300 OBP each of the last three seasons: .290 in ’07, .282 in ’06, and .295 in ’05. So the Phillies didn’t acquire Feliz for his capacity to get on base – his .049 BB/PA was the third-worst in the National League last season – can Feliz hit the ball? Well, Feliz has hit 84 home runs over the last four seasons, but that isn’t that impressive in this modern age. Disturbingly, Feliz’s isolated power has been on a trend downwards: .209 in 2004, .172 in 2005, .184 in 2006, and .165 last season. Feliz hit well with runners in scoring position last season – .310 – but in every other respect, his performance last season ought not to fill Phillies fans with hope. It should fill them with dread … Finally we get down to the catchers slot. With Rod Barajas gone the catchers slot firmly belongs to Carlos Ruiz. After being over-shadowed by Chris Coste, the thirty-something minor-leaguer (whose book I am busy reading and will shortly post a review of) who burst onto the scene in 2006, Ruiz got a lot of playing time last year and made the most of it. He hit just six home runs, but hit an impressive 29 doubles and two triples in 429 plate appearances. Surprisingly for a catcher, he was successful in six of his seven stolen base attempts. Ruiz displayed a good eye at the plate, drawing 42 walks against 49 strikeouts. His .280 batting average with runners in scoring position was pretty good. The only real surprise when looking at Ruiz’s stats was that he grounded into 17 double plays, an awfully high percentage for a guy who doesn’t play more than 70-80% of the time … That’s the Phillies starting lineup, a fearsome collection of bats that will score 850-to-900 runs next season. Here is what the Phillies bench will probably look like:
Bench:
OF – So Taguchi
IF/ OF – Greg Dobbs
IF – Wes Helms
IF – Eric Buntlett
IF / C- Chris Coste
Of the Phillies bench players, the first bat off the bench (after Jenkins or Werth) will be Greg Dobbs, who hit ten home runs and 55 RBI in 2007 in very limited action. Dobbs, who never got to play much in Seattle, finally got a chance to show what he can do. The Phillies like Dobbs a lot because he can play first base, he can play third, and he can play in the outfield. He’s the sort of versatile guy you want on your team … Chris Coste is a great story – give me a few days and I’ll finally get finished typing my review of his book, The 33-Year old Rookie – a career Minor Leaguer who jumped around in the Red Sox, Pirates and Indians systems before finding his way to Philadelphia in 2006. Pressed into duty with the injuries to Mike Lieberthal and Sal Fasano, Coste stunned observers by hitting .328 (.376 OBP) along with 7 home runs and 32 RBI in just 213 plate appearances. Coste played more sparingly in 2007, getting about 80 fewer turns at the plate and hitting .279. Coste’s OPS fell from .881 to .730 last season. The only thing I don’t like about Coste is his refusal to draw walks. He drew just four last season in 137 plate appearances and ten in 213 in 2006. Usually, I think an inability to draw walks is fatal to a player’s performance, but I still like seeing Chris Coste’s #27 on the Phillies roster. His defense improved last year (more on that later) and he became a more rounded player. He seems fated to be the Phillies backup catcher and a dangerous bat off the bench … Eric Bruntlett was a throw-in piece to the Brad Lidge deal and he seems fated to play the role of the new Abraham Nunez: the light-hitting defensive player you never want to see holding a bat at the plate in the bottom of the ninth. Bruntlett played sparingly with the Astros over the last few years and when he did he contributed little to the team’s offense. Bruntlett’s OPS for the last several years has been .705 in 2005, .695 in 2006, and .629 last season … So Taguchi joins the Phillies after spending the last several years with the St. Louis Cardinals as their reserve outfielder / pinch-hitter / pinch-runner. Taguchi is this year’s Michael Bourn, the speedy outfielder who stole 18 of 19 bases in a largely pinch-runner / defensive replacement role in 2007 for the Phillies. Taguchi has hit just 19 home runs in his MLB career, but has stolen 36 of 48 bases. Disturbingly, in exceedingly limited play last year Taguchi grounded into ten double plays … Securing the Phillies final roster slot will be Wes Helms. Based on comments from General Manager Pat Gillick the Phillies seem likely to bring 14 position players and 11 pitchers north with them, but the Phillies might go with 12 pitchers and 13 position players if they feel that they need a deeper bullpen. If they go with 12 pitchers then Helms won’t have a job anymore. (That’s good news for Clay Condrey, who seems likely to make the team only if Helms doesn’t.) I personally would prefer to see Condrey make the team over Helms. Helms was awful in 2007, hitting just five home runs and 39 RBI (and 24 Runs Created). The Phillies brought him onto the team after his strong part-time performance with the Marlins in 2006, when he posted a .390 OBP and 45 Runs Created in just 240 At-Bats. Helms OBP collapsed almost 100 points to .297 last year and he didn’t hit for power at all. The consequence was the Phillies had a light-hitting power hitter who grounded into a lot of double plays: ten. Perhaps 2007 was a fluke, but I am skeptical. Helms will have to do a lot better in ’08 to justify a roster spot, especially since the Phillies have a third baseman – Pedro Feliz – and a capable backup – Greg Dobbs – already.
What kind of a performance will the Phillies turn in this season? I’m going to project them to hit about 200 home runs, to steal 100-110 bases, to hit 320-330 doubles, and to score 900 runs. Ryan Howard will top 50 home runs and Chase Utley will make a powerful statement to MVP voters with an OBP over .400, a .300+ Batting Average, 110 RBI, 25 or so Home Runs, and 50 Doubles. If you are looking for a player to surprise you, I’d take a look at Shane Victorino. I think he’ll improve his OBP this season and will steal 45 to 50 bases, as well as hit 7 to 10 triples.
So those are the hitters. I ought to post the pitchers on Thursday and the Fielders on Friday or Saturday. No guarantees.
Labels: Burrell, Coste, Dobbs, Feliz, Helms, Howard, Power-Hitting, Predictions, Rollins, Ruiz, State of the Phillies, Utley, Victorino, Werth
Monday, March 24, 2008
Stay Tuned
Yeah, I was supposed to post my Season Preview for the Phillies today but I am a little behind. Stay tuned, I expect to post Wednesday. Hopefully.
In the meanwhile, check out this article from The Hardball Times talking about the Bobby Abreu deal. If you want to skip to the conclusions: the Phillies got nothing for Abreu but got to dump his salary on the only team in the MLB that could take it.
Also, apparently Adam Eaton has won the #5 starter job from Chad Durbin and Travis Blackley, apparently pitching well enough to take the job. Count on Durbin, who will move to the bullpen, to get some starts if / when Eaton and Kyle Kendrick struggle.
(1) comments
In the meanwhile, check out this article from The Hardball Times talking about the Bobby Abreu deal. If you want to skip to the conclusions: the Phillies got nothing for Abreu but got to dump his salary on the only team in the MLB that could take it.
Also, apparently Adam Eaton has won the #5 starter job from Chad Durbin and Travis Blackley, apparently pitching well enough to take the job. Count on Durbin, who will move to the bullpen, to get some starts if / when Eaton and Kyle Kendrick struggle.
Labels: Durbin, Eaton, Kenderick, Odds 'n Ends, Pitching, Predictions, Rotation
Monday, March 17, 2008
National League Predictions, 2008
Last Monday I took a look at the American league. Today I look at the 2008 National League and make some predictions. Next Monday will be my official Phillies preview with all of my thoughts on the individual players themselves.
Let's talk about the N.L. Much has been made in recent years of the supposed gap in terms of talent between the American League and the National League. The deal which saw the Marlins send Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Detroit supposedly cinched the deal. The A.L. rules. Well, I’m not so sure, and not because Johan Santana wears a Mets as opposed to a Twins uniform. There is a lot of great baseball to be played in the Senior Circuit (the N.L. began in 1876, while the A.L. started in 1901) and I think that the next World Series champion will be an N.L. team.
Let's talk about the N.L. Much has been made in recent years of the supposed gap in terms of talent between the American League and the National League. The deal which saw the Marlins send Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Detroit supposedly cinched the deal. The A.L. rules. Well, I’m not so sure, and not because Johan Santana wears a Mets as opposed to a Twins uniform. There is a lot of great baseball to be played in the Senior Circuit (the N.L. began in 1876, while the A.L. started in 1901) and I think that the next World Series champion will be an N.L. team.
Okay, because we go any further I am going to define a bunch of numbers that appear in this post so that you, friendly baseball fan, won't get confused and convinced that I am talking in gibberish. Here are some stats I refer to defined with respect to hitters: Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage. On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances). Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate. Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF).
Good so far? Okay, here are the stats I refer to with respect to fielding stats: Zone Rating (ZR): Is a stat which measures a player’s defensive ability by measuring plays they should have made. Admittedly, this is a stat left open to subjective opinions. Fielding Percentage: (Putouts + Assists) / (Putouts + Assists + Errors). How often the player successfully handled the ball. Range Factor: (Putouts + Assists) * 9 / IP. Essentially measures how much a player is involved in defensive plays. Unearned Run Average (UERA): (Unearned Runs Allowed * 9) / IP. Basically how many unearned runs a defense allows.
Not too confused? Okay, here are the stats I refer to defined with respect to pitching stats: Earned Run Average (ERA): Runs Allowed * 9 / Innings Pitched = What a pitcher would give up if they hurled a nine-inning game. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): (((13 * HR) + (3 * BB) – (2 * K)) / IP) + League Factor. Basically a measure of how a pitcher would have done if he had an average defense behind him. Home Runs per 9 Innings (HR/9): (HR * 9) / IP. Walks per 9 Innings (BB/9): (BB * 9) / IP. Strikeouts per 9 Innings (K/9): (K * 9) / IP.
Enough with the numbers. This is going to be a great baseball season. Let’s begin our analysis with …
N.L. East
1. Atlanta Braves
2. Philadelphia Phillies (Wildcard)
3. New York Mets
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins
The N.L. East … I’m sure most readers of my blog probably saw the order I ranked these teams at and assumed that I made a mistake. Surely Mike meant to switch #1 and #3? How can anyone in their right mind not see that the New York Mets are a lock, a shoo-in, to win the N.L. East? Might as well not even play the regular season! Just give up now and spare yourself the humiliation of defeat! … No. I looked at the numbers and came to the realization that the Atlanta Braves are the toughest team in the N.L. East, probably even the entire league. They will win the division. Quite easily, I might add. Their 2007 third-place finish was an aberration and not consistent with how well the Braves played last season. The ’07 Braves had a better runs scored / runs allowed differential (+77) than the Phillies (+71) and the Mets (+54). (Yes: the Mets probably ought to have finished third in the East instead of needing a 5-12 swan dive to blow a sure thing.) The ‘08 Braves are even better and will win 95-100 games. Why am I so confident in the Braves? Simply put, they’ve gone back to the formula that served them so well in the 1990s when Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine delivered twenty win seasons and division titles to Hotlanta. They’ve assembled the best pitching staff they’ve had in years in Atlanta with Smoltz, Glavine (returned from the Mets after a five-year stint in Queens), Tim Hudson and Chuck James. Look at how the 2008 Bill James Handbook projects the four to pitch in 2008:
Smoltz: 17-7, 3.22 ERA
Hudson: 15-9, 3.67 ERA
Glavine: 11-10, 3.99 ERA
James: 12-8, 3.86 ERA
Any team facing that rotation should weep. Added in is the problem that the Braves will have a healthy Chipper Jones (Bill James Handbook projects: 105 Runs Created in ‘08) and a full season from Mark Teixeira, who hit 17 home runs and 56 RBI in just 54 games with the Braves in ’07 (Handbook projection for 2008: 36 HR, 120 RBI, 121 Runs Created). True the Braves lost the talented defensive wiz Andruw Jones, a big reason why their pitchers did so well for so long, but they made up for it with the acquisition of Mark Kotsay from the A’s. Kotsay's .899 Zone Rating (ZR) was roughly comparable to Jones' .921, which suggests that their defense will continue to be very good. The ’08 Braves clearly improved on the ’07 squad and will be contenders … I won’t discuss the Phillies too much here – that’s what my season preview next Monday is for – but the Phillies made solid, marginal improvements to their roster by adding Brad Lidge and moving Brett Myers back into the rotation and they boast three potential MVP candidates in Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. I think the Phillies are good enough to make the playoffs, and sabremetrics guru Bill James agrees, holding the Phillies to be one of the two best teams in the National League … So why don’t I like the New York Mets? Well, for one thing they weren’t as good as they looked in 2007. As I discussed a little above, their Pythagorean win – loss record should have given them 86 wins instead of 88 and would have placed them third in the division. The question is: does the acquisition of Johan Santana alter the problems the Mets have? Absolutely not. Sure, the Mets now have a terrific starting pitcher who will contend for the Cy Young Award. However, the Mets 88 wins in 2007 were built on unexpectedly strong performances from John Maine (15-10, 3.91 ERA) and Oliver Perez (15-10, 3.56 ERA). Count on Maine and Perez to regress closer to average in 2008. Additionally, the team lost Tom Glavine, an experienced starter, to the Braves. Basically, the Mets rotation is going to consist of Maine, Perez, Santana and Pedro Martinez, provided that Pedro’s arm holds up. Good luck. Offensively the Mets have real issues on the field. Carlos Delgado is in decline after a lackluster season which saw him hit just 24 home runs and 87 RBI. Jose Reyes struggled down the stretch in ’07, so I am not sure if he’ll be in the right mental frame of mind next year. Oh, and injuries are a major issue here. With several key players in their late 30s and even 40s, they could really be done in if a key player like Carlos Beltran went down. Basically, the Mets have a few great players – Santana, David Wright, Beltran, Reyes, and maybe Pedro – surrounded by talent that ranges from average to mediocre. The Braves and Phillies have more depth than the Mets and their across-the-board strength gives them the edge in the regular season. Watch how the Mets would collapse without Beltran or Reyes in the lineup. Sure, the Mets might be tough to beat in a best-of-five – I sure wouldn’t want to face Santana and Pedro in a short series – but they don’t have the horses to go through 162 games and emerge victorious … The gap between the Mets and the Washington Nationals is enormous. The Nationals, since they moved to our nation’s capitol, have really struggled to turn things around. They’ve added a lot of hitters recently (Austin Kearns, Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes - adding quality outfielders seems to be a speciality of General Manager Jim Bowden), but their rotation is still absurdly bad. The Nationals will score a few more runs this season than they did in their dead-last 673 in 2007, but they still will allow a lot of runs. Their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA was the worst in the N.L. in 2007. Don’t expect that to improve in 2008 beyond a game or two … Speaking of not improving: the ’07 Florida Marlins were the worst defensive team in the N.L. last season (0.61 Unearned Run Average – UERA) and one of the worst pitching-wise as well (4.68 FIP, better than just the Phillies and Nationals). Take away their best hitter (Miguel Cabrera) and their best pitcher (Dontrelle Willis) and, well … There’s always 2011, Marlins fans. Sure the Marlins will reap a benefit in the long run by taking some good prospects like the Tigers Cameron Maybin, and they already have talent in Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez, but this is a 55-107 kind of team.
Other views: Click here for Baseball Prospectus' 2008 N.L. East preview. If you are interested in reading some blogs from fellow N.L. East bloggers, might I suggest ... For those interested in what Braves fans are saying, Braves Nation is a nice place to stop off at. Braves bloggers are a low-key, curiously dispassionate crew, so talking with them is pretty enjoyable. After the Mets won the N.L. East in '06 there was a glut of Mets bloggers out there on the internet. The signing of Johan Santana has evidentially prompted a new legion to hang out their shingle as well. MetsBlog is probably the best, well, Mets Blog out there, but the Mets bloggers run the risk of becoming Cubs bloggers are their worst: pathetic, ignorant, angry. In the unlikely event that you want to read about what Marlins fans are saying, scope out FishStripes. If you are into baseball in our nation's capitol, check out Nationals Power. Moving along ...
N.L. Central
1. Chicago Cubs
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
The N.L. Central … As fate would have it, 2008 marks the 100th Anniversary of the Chicago Cubs last World Series title. No pressure, Cubs fans. Is this the year that the Cubs win it all? Who knows. The ’06 Cardinals, winners of just 83 regular season games, were arguably the most unlikely World Series winner in two decades. Why not the Cubbies? … The ’08 Cubs are the best team in a bad division. The N.L. Central was probably the worst in baseball last year and might be again, perhaps eclipsed only by the A.L. West. The Cubs 85 wins were good enough to win the division and get them to the playoffs for the first time since 2003. 83-85 wins could be good enough to win in 2008 once more. The Cubs have quality pitching with Carlos Zambrano, Rich Hill, Ted Lilly and former Phillie Jon Lieber on the mound – Lieber, in particular, could be a spectacular find for the Cubs – and solid bats in their lineup: Aramis Ramirez, Derek Lee, and Alfonso Soriano. The big three of Soriano, Lee and Ramirez are all capable of producing 100+ Runs Created and Lilly, Zambrano and Hill are all capable of winning twenty games. Their ERAs last season were all under 4.00 and they all notched impressive strikeout totals. The Cubs, you may not be aware, surrendered the second-fewest runs in the N.L. in 2007: just 690. The problem the Cubs have is that the team is badly built: After the big three of Soriano, Lee and Ramirez, their lineup is pretty lousy. They have nobody to set the table. A team boasting those bats shouldn’t struggle to score runs. And yet the ’07 Cubs did. Their On-Base Percentages and Slugging Percentages were under the National League average. New centerfielder Felix Pie had an OBP of .271 in 2007. Hopefully he'll improve, but the Cubs don't have players that can get on base and set the table for the Big Three. As for power: the Big Three hit 81 of the Cubs 151 home runs, or 53%, in 2007. A team this shallow in terms of depth could falter against stronger competition … Thankfully for the North Siders, the best they have to play against are the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew, led by Prince Fielder (50 Home Runs, 119 RBI, 35 Doubles), actually led the N.L. Central for most of the season before faltering in the late summer, and might compete against the Cubs once more. They return nearly the same team to the field in 2008 that they fielded in 2007. The Brewers, who led the N.L. in Isolated Power at the plate at .194, will hit a lot of home runs, but need consistent table-setters to make Prince Fielder’s solo shots into two or three-run homers (the Brewers team OBP was a below-average .329) and they need to support their pitching staff with better defense. Ben Sheets and Jeff Suppan did a surprisingly nice job for the Brewers in 2007 (Suppan: 12-12, 4.62 ERA, Sheets: 12-5, 3.82 ERA), but their team Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER, the percentage of balls put into play turned into outs) was an absurdly bad .680. Third baseman - and undeserving 2007 Rookie of the Year - Ryan Braun committed a whopping 25 errors in 2007. Wisely, the Brewers moved him to leftfield, where he could do less damage, but this is a shoddy unit. These guys are too flawed to win consistently … The St. Louis Cardinals have gone a long way from their World Series title in 2006. The ’07 Cardinals fell apart and the team appears to be in transition. Gone are Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen, mainstays of the team over the last decade. Chris Duncan (21 Home Runs, 70 RBI) and Rick Ankiel (11 Home Runs, 39 RBI in 47 games) are the new outfielders along with centerfielder Skip Schumaker. The pitching staff is a mess. Chris Carpenter is back, but I wonder about the rest of the unit. As bad as Kip Wells was last season (7-17, 5.70 ERA), Brad Looper wasn’t much better (12-12, 4.94 ERA). I wonder, as I project the Cardinals for a third-place finish, if I am giving them too much credit. If Albert Pujols (32 Home Runs, 38 Doubles, .429 OBP, 103 RBI) is healthy, the Cardinals can go .500. Without Pujols, this team will challenge the Pirates for the cellar. They need recent signee, and former Phillie, Kyle Lohse to come up big. Good luck … I think that the day Ken Griffey Jr. retires will be the happiest day in the lives of many a Cincinnati Reds fan. When Griffey joined the Reds in 2000 it seemed that they had robbed Pat Gillick and the Mariners blind. They snared Griffey for a handful of players, didn’t have to give up defensive superstar Pokey Reese and added a formidable bat to a team that won 96 games the previous year. Griffey’s career has been one continuous disaster after another. His 144 games last season was the most he played since 2000, though he still ended the season on the D.L. His numbers at the plate are still solid (.372 OBP, 30 Home Runs and 93 RBI last season), but he’s a nightmare in rightfield. Worse, his karma has thoroughly permeated the Reds organization. That is too bad, because the ’08 Reds have some talent. Aaron Harang (16-6, 3.73) and Bronson Arroyo (9-15, 4.23 ERA) are a terrific one-two punch on the mound and put up good numbers despite pitching in one of the friendliest hitters parks in baseball. Unfortunately, the rest of the Reds pitching staff is mediocre and their fielding is equally forgettable. The Reds will hit lots and lots of homers, but they need to concentrate their resources on securing quality pitching. They might lap the Cards for third, but they won’t do much better than .500 … Former Phillies GM Ed Wade is busy trying to rebuild the Houston Astros into a contender and I wish him luck. Wade has worked some decent deals thus far, shipping closer Brad Lidge to the Phillies for Michael Bourn, minor leaguer Mike Costanzo (whom he promptly redealt to the Orioles) and Geoff Geary, then dealing for Orioles third baseman Miguel Tejada. Bourn is a solid player and Wade won’t regret that part of the deal, but the acquisition of Tejada gives him two slow, declining sluggers in Tejada and Carlos Lee on his roster. The Bill James Handbook projects Tejada, age 32, to hit just 24 Home Runs, while Lee, also 32, projects better, but both players are entering the twilight of their careers. The effort to win now might cost Ed Wade in the long run. He also needs to focus on his pitching and defense more. Both were substandard in 2007, and the weakness of his pitching staff is especially compounded by the problem that they had one of the finest pitchers in baseball on the staff in 2007: Roy Oswalt, 14-7 with 3.18 ERA. My friends at Philly Sports Talk Now picked the Astros to win the Central, but I think this could be a sixth place team … Will this be the year that the Pittsburgh Pirates finally finish above .500? This is a subject that I often find myself debating as I live here in the Western Pennsylvania area and have watched the Pirates struggle through year after year of misery on the field. My guess is that the Pirates will finish below .500 for the zillionth time since they lost the 1992 NLCS to the Atlanta Braves. That’s not to say that there is hope on the horizon for the Pirates, however. The team’s investment in pitching might really start to pay dividends in the future. Tom Gorzelanny (14-10, 3.88 ERA) and Ian Snell (9-12, 3.76 ERA) were brilliant and Matt Morris, an acquisition derided by most of the media, will give them a quality third arm. If Zach Duke (3-8, 5.53 ERA) and Paul Maholm (10-15, 5.02 ERA) turn their careers around, this could be a rotation as good as any in the N.L. That said, they need improved production from their position players. Jason Bay (21 home runs, 84 RBI) and Adam LaRoche (21 home runs, 88 RBI) both struggled at the plate and Freddy Sanchez needs to draw more walks (just 32, or .049 BB/PA) to be an effective table-setter. This was a bad unit in 2007 – particularly defensively – and it is pretty much unchanged in 2008. If Bay and LaRoche hit and if Maholm and Duke improve … this could be a dark horse team. .500 is a possibility and a division title is not impossible in the topsy-turvy world of the N.L. Central.
Other views: Click here for Baseball Prospectus' 2008 N.L. Central preview. Want to read a good Pirates blog? Check out Honest Wagner. I also like Red Reporter.
N.L. West
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. San Diego Padres
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
5. San Francisco Giants
The N.L. West … The West is Best. Team-for-team, the N.L. West is the best division in baseball, in my opinion. Any one of these teams could win the division and any team might finish dead-last and still have a .500 record. I think the Arizona Diamondbacks are the best of the bunch. With everyone yapping about how the Mets bought the pennant with Santana, everyone has ignored the fact that the D-backs have a better rotation than the Mets could hope for. Brandon Webb (18-10, 3.01 ERA), Randy "The Big Unit" Johnson and Dan Haren (15-9, 3.07 ERA) gives the D-backs three very good pitchers. This is a rotation that comes close to equaling the Braves for the best in the N.L. Yes, the D-backs starting lineup is weak. And yes, I am baffled about how they posted the best record in the N.L. despite being out-scored by 20 runs in 2007, but I like the D-backs strength on the mound and I think they’ll hit better than they did last season in 2008. This is a young team that has tasted success and wants some more … I was astonished by the San Diego Padres collapse last season: they had led the N.L. West for a good deal of the season then collapsed down the stretch not once but three times: first losing to the Diamondbacks in early September to surrender the division lead, then blowing a lead over the Brewers in the final weekend to allow the Rockies to catch up, then with Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy on the mound they still lost managed to lose. What a heart-breaking season, but the Padres offensive woes spelled their doom and will continue to haunt the team. There is a lot to like about the ’08 Padres though – any team featuring multiple Cy Young Award winners (Peavy, 19-6, 2.54 ERA and Greg Maddux, 14-11, 4.14 ERA) is going to have good pitching. Chris Young wasn’t too bad either on the mound in 2008: 9-8, with a 3.12 ERA. Peavy, Young and Maddux had three of the top seven fielding independent pitching (FIP) ERAs in the N.L. in ’08. Peavy had an astonishing 143 Pitching Runs Created, best in the N.L. (second: Brandon Webb with 129). This is a great pitching staff with a tremendous closer on the mound: Trevor Hoffman. The Padres are the ultimate pitching-and-defense oriented team: their 3.74 team FIP was the only one in the majors under 4.00 … Their .701 DER was above-average and one of the best in the N.L. Simply put, this team can prevent people from scoring runs: their 666 runs allowed was the fewest in the National League. Offensively, the Padres are pretty punchless at the plate. What surprises me about the Padres is that for a team that has such a good pitching staff and plays in such an extreme pitchers park (75 Run Factor, meaning it was 25% harder to score a run at Petco than anywhere else, and a home run factor of 71), I don’t know why the Padres don’t add more speed (just 55 stolen bases, worst in the N.L.) and better contact hitters (.322 OBP, second-worst in the N.L. after the D-backs). Surprisingly, the Padres hit with some power: their .160 isolated power at the plate was actually slightly better than the N.L. average. This team needs more speed and more table-setters. Their big off-season acquisition was to bring in a declining Jim Edmonds. Maybe Edmonds will rejuvenate his career in SD, but I think this team will fall a little short of the D-backs … What an exceptional season the Colorado Rockies had in 2007. They won 21 of 22 games to make the World Series before falling to the Red Sox. The great tragedy of the Phillies season was that they, the team of destiny, ran headlong into a team whose destiny was greater. Offensively the Rockies are fearsome. Matt Holiday would have been a deserving MVP winner if Jimmy Rollins hadn’t won. Troy Tolowitzki had one of the best seasons a Rookie has ever had. And the Rockies weren’t simple sluggers either. Holliday and Todd Helton had OBPs of .405 and .434 respectively. They even played a little small ball, leading the N.L. in 83 sacrifice hits. Defensively the Rockies are very good too. I wonder if their pitching will continue to excel. In the recent past the Rockies have seen their team ERA, which once was typically the worst in the N.L., improve to respectability. Last year’s team had a team ERA of 4.32, better than the N.L. average. The problem that I have with it is that the Rockies largely stitched it together with an assortment of spare parts here and there. Jeff Francis was great (17-9, 4.22 ERA), but the rest of the staff was a smattering of talent. Can the Rockies put things together again? I am going to say no. Third place … I feel like repeating my analysis of the Padres when I talk about the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Bill James Handbook projects Jason Schmidt, Brad Penny and Derek Lowe to go 10-6, 3.41 ERA; 12-10, 3.83 ERA; and 13-11, 3.78 ERA respectively. This is a rotation that is very strong and could be exceptional with the addition of Japanese player H Kuroda. Again, with the Padres, the Dodgers have a punchless offense that needs improvement. Perhaps free agent signee Andruw Jones will shake off his struggles last season (.222 BA) and perform well, but the Dodgers need some solid offensive firepower to move the runners around the bases. Their team .131 isolated power at the plate was the worst in the N.L. and nicely illustrates the problem teams have when they rely too heavily on timely hitting and speed to score runs. Still, the Dodgers could really surprise some people. I could even see this team in the playoffs … Finally we come to the San Francisco Giants, now entering Year 1 A.B., or After Barry. Bonds and his problematic pursuit of the home runs records has largely sucked the oxygen out of the Giants for years. They had built the team with veteran players to compliment Bonds and help him get to that elusive World Series ring, a task they nearly accomplished in 2002. Now the Giants can start to look towards their future. The thing that astonishes me is that when you look at their lineup, however, is that they have to be the oldest team in the National League. Over at shortstop is Omar Vizquel (41). Second baseman Ray Durham is 36, as are first baseman Rich Aurilla and leftfielder Dave Roberts. Rightfielder Randy Winn is 34. Catcher Bengie Molina is 33. Former Phillie Aaron Rowand is 30. Aside from third baseman Kevin Frandsen (the young pup of the group at age 26) not a single position starter is under 30. Yikes. This team is going to be bad. Last year, even with Bonds drawing intentional walks and clubbing home runs, they were still awful. The Giants scored the second-fewest runs in the N.L. and ranked fourteenth in isolated power and On-Base Percentage. In other words, they didn’t get on base and they didn’t hit for power. Defensively the Giants were pretty good and their pitching staff is the future of the team. Barry Zito has taken over as the face of the Giants turned in a solid performance (11-13, 4.53 ERA) which doesn’t really justify his contract. The real stars of the staff were Matt Cain, who went 7-16 despite posting an ERA of 3.65 (not surprisingly, he led the N.L. in tough losses with eight), and rookie Rim Lincecum, who went 7-5 with a 4.00 ERA. Like Cain, who’s eight tough losses obscure good pitching, Lincecum’s twelve no-decisions obscure good pitching too. Lincecum’s 9.22 strikeouts per nine innings was impressive and remind me a great deal of Cole Hamels. In the long run the Giants will improve, but they’ve got a ways to go and need to hope that their pitchers can win lots of 2-1 games. I think the Giants could contend, but I am skeptical. The A.B. era was something that should have begun years ago but the Giants wanted him to break the record in their uniform. Now they are paying the price.
Other views:
Click here for Baseball Prospectus' 2008 N.L. West preview. One of the best blogs on the 'Net is Geoff Young's Ducksnorts. I also like AZ Snakepit, a Diamondbacks Blog.
Playoff Race … will largely evolve into a battle between the Cubs and Brewers for the N.L. Central title, while the Diamondbacks and Braves cruise to easy wins in their races. The Phillies, Mets, Padres and Rockies will battle fiercely for the wildcard. The Rockies, and then the Mets, will falter down the stretch, making this into a two team race. The Phillies, with their superior offense, will hold off the pitching-heavy Padres for the final playoff slot …
Dark Horse team: Dodgers. Strong pitching staff might help them motor to the post-season.
NLDS:
Diamondbacks over Phillies, 3-2
Braves over Cubs, 3-1
The Phillies fall in the decisive fifth game to Brandon Webb in the heat of the Arizona desert, despite putting up a valiant battle. Meanwhile, the Braves steamroll the Cubs hitters with their rotation of pitchers.
NLCS:
Braves over Diamondbacks, 4-2. And the Braves return to the World Series for the first time since 1999 (nearly a decade!) by outlasting the D-backs. The advantage the Braves have is that they have a deeper rotation than the D-backs, who lacked the presence of Brandon Webb in the first two games of the series.
Awards:
N.L. MVP: Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies. Utley will win his first MVP award and the third for a member of the Phillies in as many years, something that hasn’t happened in the N.L. since the St. Louis Cardinals had three different winners in three years between 1942 – 1944. Why will Utley win the award? Simply put, he’s a consistent hitter who does everything well: he gets on base (.410 OBP in 2007), he hits for average (.332), he has speed (nine steals in ten tries, as well as five triples), he hits for power (48 doubles and 22 home runs in 2007 while missing a month of the season), and he plays a difficult defensive position well. He’s the best second baseman in baseball and probably the best all-around player in the National League. He had 28 Wins Shares in 2007 despite missing thirty plus games. Runners up: Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals; Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies; and Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers.
N.L. Cy Young: Brandon Webb, Starting Pitcher, Diamondbacks. Something that is very interesting about Brandon Webb: in the last two years he’s tossed nine complete games. Webb completed four starts in 2007 and Jake Peavy, the man who won the ’07 Cy Young from him, finished none. Webb was the second-best pitcher in the N.L. in ’07, but he’ll excel in 2008 with a better offense around him and more support in the rotation. Webb will win twenty games, post an ERA at or lower than 3.00, and will strikeout 200+ hitters again. Regardless of what Peavy does, what Webb does is more impressive because he does it at a hitters park as opposed to the cavernous pitchers domain of Petco in San Diego. Look for Santana to struggle in the early going with a sore arm. Runners up: Johan Santana, Starting Pitcher, Mets; Cole Hamels, Starting Pitcher, Phillies; John Smoltz, Starting Pitcher, Braves.
Rookie of the Year: Cameron Maybin, Outfield, Marlins. Expect the talented Mr. Maybin to get 162 games with the Marlins. Why not? These guys could field 5 or 6 rookies in their Opening Day roster.
World Series … The Atlanta Braves – yes those boring, dreary Atlanta Braves – will win their first World Series title since 1995 by defeating the Cleveland Indians once more in a dramatic, exciting series that sees arguably the two best pitching teams in the major leagues dueling for supremacy. I like the Braves in this series because they boast four terrific pitchers and are backed up by a solid collection of fielders and hitters. Call it Braves in six.
Next Monday: Phillies Preview! Read all about it!
Labels: National League, Predictions, State of the Phillies
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Podcast!
Last night I appeared on Philly Sports Talk Now to discuss the 2008 season and the Phillies. My thanks again to Jim Dogg and Rich for having me on their show. I always have a blast. Click here for the podcast.
(3) comments
Labels: Odds 'n Ends, Predictions, State of the Phillies
Monday, March 10, 2008
American League Predictions, 2008
Even though spring training is only half over I was too anxious to post my predictions. I am posting my A.L. predictions today and then I intend on posting the N.L. next week.
What can I say about the American League in 2008? The Junior Circuit went 137-115 against the N.L. in 2007, continuing the A.L.’s dominance of recent history. This has all been well-documented: since the Cincinnati Reds upset the Oakland A’s in the 1990 World Series four games to zip, the A.L. team has won eleven of the last sixteen World Series. I note, additionally, that the last three N.L. victories were all considered upsets: Diamondbacks over the Yankees in ’01, Marlins over the Yankees in ’03, and the Cardinals over the Tigers in ’06. Each of the four A.L. playoff teams last year won more games than any other N.L. team: the Indians and Red Sox won 96 games and the Angels and Yankees won 94. The N.L.’s best record in 2007 belonged to the Diamondbacks, who went a measly 90-72. The talent lays in the A.L. and if you had to bet on who will win the World Series, bet on an A.L. team, although with Santana journeying to Queens and the N.L., perhaps the talent flight has abated?
What can I say about the American League in 2008? The Junior Circuit went 137-115 against the N.L. in 2007, continuing the A.L.’s dominance of recent history. This has all been well-documented: since the Cincinnati Reds upset the Oakland A’s in the 1990 World Series four games to zip, the A.L. team has won eleven of the last sixteen World Series. I note, additionally, that the last three N.L. victories were all considered upsets: Diamondbacks over the Yankees in ’01, Marlins over the Yankees in ’03, and the Cardinals over the Tigers in ’06. Each of the four A.L. playoff teams last year won more games than any other N.L. team: the Indians and Red Sox won 96 games and the Angels and Yankees won 94. The N.L.’s best record in 2007 belonged to the Diamondbacks, who went a measly 90-72. The talent lays in the A.L. and if you had to bet on who will win the World Series, bet on an A.L. team, although with Santana journeying to Queens and the N.L., perhaps the talent flight has abated?
Okay, before we go any further I am going to define a bunch of numbers that appear in this post so that you, friendly baseball fan, won't get confused and convinced that I am talking in gibberish. Here are some stats I refer to defined with respect to hitters:
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage. On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances). Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate. Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF).
Good so far? Okay, here are the stats I refer to with respect to fielding stats: Zone Rating (ZR): Is a stat which measures a player’s defensive ability by measuring plays they should have made. Admittedly, this is a stat left open to subjective opinions. Fielding Percentage: (Putouts + Assists) / (Putouts + Assists + Errors). How often the player successfully handled the ball. Range Factor (RF): (Putouts + Assists) * 9 / IP. Essentially measures how much a player is involved in defensive plays. Unearned Run Average (UERA): (Unearned Runs Allowed * 9) / IP. Basically how many unearned runs a defense allows.
Not too confused? Okay, here are the stats I refer to defined with respect to pitching stats: Earned Run Average (ERA): Runs Allowed * 9 / Innings Pitched = What a pitcher would give up if they hurled a nine-inning game. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): (((13 * HR) + (3 * BB) – (2 * K)) / IP) + League Factor. Basically a measure of how a pitcher would have done if he had an average defense behind him. Home Runs per 9 Innings: (HR/9): (HR * 9) / IP. Walks per 9 Innings (BB/9): (BB * 9) / IP. Strikeouts per 9 Innings (K/9): (K * 9) / IP.
Good so far? Okay, here are the stats I refer to with respect to fielding stats: Zone Rating (ZR): Is a stat which measures a player’s defensive ability by measuring plays they should have made. Admittedly, this is a stat left open to subjective opinions. Fielding Percentage: (Putouts + Assists) / (Putouts + Assists + Errors). How often the player successfully handled the ball. Range Factor (RF): (Putouts + Assists) * 9 / IP. Essentially measures how much a player is involved in defensive plays. Unearned Run Average (UERA): (Unearned Runs Allowed * 9) / IP. Basically how many unearned runs a defense allows.
Not too confused? Okay, here are the stats I refer to defined with respect to pitching stats: Earned Run Average (ERA): Runs Allowed * 9 / Innings Pitched = What a pitcher would give up if they hurled a nine-inning game. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): (((13 * HR) + (3 * BB) – (2 * K)) / IP) + League Factor. Basically a measure of how a pitcher would have done if he had an average defense behind him. Home Runs per 9 Innings: (HR/9): (HR * 9) / IP. Walks per 9 Innings (BB/9): (BB * 9) / IP. Strikeouts per 9 Innings (K/9): (K * 9) / IP.
Survived that? Okay, let's move along to the actual predictions. Does the A.L. Rule? That’s the party line and I’m not entirely convinced. N.L. teams are a lot better than people think. Still, there is a lot of talent in the American League and we begin with the …
A.L. East
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles
The A.L. East. Ho-hum, another year and the same story basically that we’ve seen for the last decade or so. The Red Sox and Yankees battle it out for the top spot, the Blue Jays bring up the rear and the Rays and Orioles never even sniff .500 … Stop me if you’ve heard all of this before … The Boston Red Sox are loaded. They basically are returning the exact same team that went 36-16 by June 1, spent 172 days in first place last year after capturing it on April 18th, and won the A.L. East in a walk on their way to their second World Series title in four years, and just their second since Babe Ruth joined the Yankees. Their Opening Day roster ought to have 22 of their 25 players from the World Series team on the roster. Win the World Series? There is no reason to believe that the Red Sox can’t do it again in 2008. And 2009. And 2010. This is a fearsome team without any weaknesses. You want pitching? Their team ERA of 3.87 was the best in the A.L. Fielding? Their team DER of .706 tied for the best in the A.L. Offense? They were third in runs scored. Their .362 team OBP was only bettered by the Yankees. Worried because the Red Sox missed out on Santana and might lose Curt Schilling? Don’t be. The Red Sox have Josh Beckett (20-7, 3.27 ERA), Dice-K Matsuzaka (15-12, 4.40 ERA), Tim Wakefield (17-12, 4.76 ERA) and the highly touted Jon Lester waiting in the wings. If they get deep into a game with a lead, it is in the bag: the Red Sox bullpen of Jonathan Papelbon (37 saves, 1.85 ERA) and Hideki Okajima (2.22 ERA) is nearly unbeatable. Defensively the Red Sox are exceptional, and that’s with Manny Ramirez in leftfield. At the plate the Red Sox return Mike Lowell (21 home runs, 120 RBI), Kevin Youkilis (16 home runs, 83 RBI, .390 OBP), and Manny (20 home runs, 88 RBI), as well as David Ortiz. Ortiz is an exceptional hitter. His .445 OBP was the best in the A.L. in 2007. Despite being a DH, he is a legitimate MVP candidate because what he does with the bat. Great team, could win 100 games, ought to win the division in a walk … 2007 was the first time in ten years that the New York Yankees failed to capture the A.L. East crown. It was really a stunning development, as the Yankees had pretty easily cruised to nine consecutive division titles between 1998 and 2006. This off-season the Yankees underwent big changes at the top as the Bronx management bid good-bye to Joe Torre and installed Joe Girardi as manager. This is part of a larger trend within the Yankees management towards getting the team younger and building the team’s farm system. The Yankees reluctance to deal Joba Chamberlain and Philip Hughes must be seen in the context of the team wanting to get back to their successful 1996-2000 teams, which featured grinders at the plate like Paul O’Neill and Tino Martinez as opposed to their more star-studded teams that flamed out in the playoffs. Those teams were sound fundamentally, played tough defense and boasted formidable pitching. The Yankees of recent vintage have been loaded with bats but struggle to prevent runs. I like the direction the Yankees are moving in - they could be great in '09 - but I wonder if ’08 will be an off-year for them. While teams like the White Sox and Tigers made big strides and the Indians and Red Sox have superior pitching and defensive alignments, while the Yankees comparatively did little, I can’t see the ’08 Yankees doing any better than the wildcard … Someone argued recently that if the Toronto Blue Jays played in the N.L. East rather than the A.L. East, they’d easily win the division. Maybe, maybe not (the 2008 N.L. East will be pretty good), but the Blue Jays would definitely be a playoff contender. Instead they seem cursed to sit in third place, in the shadow of the Red Sox and Yankees. The thing that most impresses me about the Blue Jays is their impressive pitching and fielding. The Jays tied the Red Sox for the best Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER) in the American League at .706, meaning that they converted 70.6% of the balls put into play by their pitchers into outs. John Dewan’s Plus / Minus system rated them the best defense in baseball last season, making 92 more plays than the average team would have made. As for pitching, the Blue Jays 4.00 ERA was second to just the Boston Red Sox. Leading the way are Roy Halladay (16-7, 3.71 ERA) and A.J. Burnett (10-8, 3.75 ERA), two of the better starting pitchers in the American League. The Jays problem is that they don’t score many runs – just 753 last season. J.P. Riccardi, the former Billy Beane disciple, has built a terrific pitching and defense team, but the Blue Jays can’t figure out how to score runs and they need to do so if they are going to contend. Want to know why Toronto won't contend? Well, the Blue Jays first baseman is Lyle Overbay, who hit a mere ten home runs (a mere .151 isolated power - ISO - at the plate) and had an OBP of just .315. Simply put, first base is not a position where you can afford to have a player hitting for neither power nor average. The Blue Jays two best hitters are Frank Thomas (26 home runs, 95 RBI, age: 40) and Scott Rolen (8 home runs, 58 RBI with the Cardinals, age: 33), who are both older and are probably in major decline. The fact that Thomas led the Blue Jays in homers with just 26 is pretty bad. Simply put, the Blue Jays need to add some hitters to their lineup to be competitive with the Red Sox and Yankees … I picked the Tampa Bay Rays to beat out – if you can use those words to describe finishing in fourth place – the Orioles and I think that the Rays might be one of the most interesting teams in baseball. The least successful of the four expansion teams created in the 1990’s (the Marlins have two World Series titles, the Diamondbacks have one, and the Rockies have a pair of playoff berths to speak of), the Rays are desperately trying to break through and make an impact. I’m not sure they’ll do it, but the numbers from their ’07 campaign are interesting. Did you know that the Rays had the worst ERA in the A.L. last year? 5.54. However, the Rays led the A.L. in strikeouts: 1,194. How bizarre is that? Let’s start with their pitching. How awful were the Rays? They allowed a whopping 944 runs in 2007, 76 more than the Oroles. They allowed an A.L.-worst 199 home runs, they converted just 57% of their save opportunities, and their FIP ERA was 4.78, second-worst in the A.L. James Shields and Scott Kazmir pitched well for the Rays (12-8, 3.85 ERA and 13-9, 3.48 ERA, respectively) but the quality of their pitching staff drops off tremendously after that. Some of the pitchers how struggled in a big way last year will be back: Edwin Jackson (5-15, 5.76 ERA) and Andy Sonnanstine (6-10, 5.85 ERA), for example. Troy Percival will attempt to anchor their leaky bullpen. In order for this team to be competitive, they need to dramatically improve their pitching staff. Dramatically improve it. Defensively the Rays also need to make some strides. They were awful. While John Dewan’s Plus / Minus system rated the Blue Jays as the top team in the majors, it ranked the Ray the worst. Their -107 Plus / Minus rating was awful, as was their .657 DER. They also committed 117 errors, second worst in the A.L. Their leaky defense is a big reason why their pitchers struggled. The .648 DER behind Kazmir hurt his performance badly. Offensively the Rays have some talent, but that has been something people have been saying for years. Their hitters struck out 1,324 times in 2007, but the real problem is that their hitters, while having some power at the plate – .165 isolated power – had no table-setters: .336 OBP. The Rays have a lot of talent at the plate but they aren’t maximizing it. I say fourth place and not fifth, but only because the Orioles are more messed up than the Rays … I’ve been reading a lot of late about the Baltimore Orioles teams of the 1960’s and 1970’s. It is astonishing to me about how dominant those teams were – year-in and year-out they had power at the plate, great pitching and terrific defense – and now you look at the current Orioles and you understand how fans who grew up in the ‘60s and ‘70s must be furious at the decline of the team. Since they went to the playoffs in ’97 the Orioles have been consistently bad, posting one losing season after another. Unable to spend like the Red Sox and Yankees, they’ve also been unable to find a niche and exploit it like the Blue Jays have in managing to finish third for most of this time. No, the Orioles have finished fourth because they’ve managed to be incompetent in building their team. They’ve brought aging players in to bolster the team, squandered young talent, and have generally enraged their loyal fans. Perhaps now the Orioles are turning over a new leaf: the team’s decision to ship Miguel Tejada to the Astros and Erik Bedard to the Mariners for prospects might herald a new dawn for the Eastern Shore Birds. Losing Bedard will hurt in the short-term (his 3.33 FIP was the third-best in the A.L., and he struck out 221 batters, or a major-league leading 30% of the hitters he faced), but it was the right thing to do. Losing Tejada won’t hurt the Orioles a bit either: he is clearly in the declining portion of his career. Will the Orioles struggle in 2008? No doubt. They might be the worst team in the A.L., but there are better days on the horizon, Orioles fans.
A.L. Central
1. Cleveland Indians
2. Detroit Tigers (Wildcard)
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Kansas City Royals
The A.L. Central … The conventional wisdom is that the baseball team in Motown vastly improved themselves in the 2007 – 2008 off-season and that the Cleveland Indians, the 2007 A.L. Central champs, are going to be left in the dust. Sure the Indians kept their roster intact (23 of their 25 Opening Day guys played for the Indians in the ALCS) and didn’t make any splashy moves (signing Jamey Carroll doesn’t qualify). They also didn’t lose anyone either. The Indians return with a team that is both young and good and promises to do even better this season than it did last. The key to the Indians is their pitching staff. Last year’s Cy Young Award winner, C.C. Sabathia (19-7, 3.21 ERA), anchors the rotation and is the best individual pitcher in the A.L. with Santana gone. Sabathia’s 3.27 FIP was the second-best in the A.L., and his 1.5 walks per nine innings (BB/9) was also second-best. Sabathia is a strikeout pitcher with terrific control. His 5.65 K/BB ratio in 2007 was the best in the A.L., better than a strikeout over Santana (4.52). Right after Sabathia is Fausto Carmona (19-8, 3.06 ERA), who had the highest groundball / flyball ratio of any pitcher in the American league last year: 3.47. That G/F ratio helped Carmona induce a whopping 1.34 double plays per nine innings pitched. The .352 slugging percentage against Carmona was the third-lowest in the American League. Right after Carmona is Paul Byrd (15-8, 4.59 ERA), whose 1.3 BB/9 was the best in the A.L. This is a tough rotation to get through and a major reason why the Indians had arguably the best pitching staff in the A.L. in 2007 along with the Red Sox and Blue Jays. While their 4.05 team ERA was third in the A.L. behind the Red Sox and Blue Jays, their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA was actually better than the Red Sox: 4.12 vs. 4.24. In terms of preventing runs the Indians just need to get a little more solid in their glove work. Their 0.28 Unearned Run Average (UERA) was pretty low, but they were the league average in terms of John Dewan’s Plus / Minus and Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER). Offensively the Indians weren’t overwhelming at the plate like the Yankees, but they were very, very solid. Indians hitters were very disciplined at the plate, working counts and getting on base. Their 3.94 pitches per plate appearance was second-best in the A.L. after, you guessed it, the Red Sox. Travis Hafner (24 home runs, 100 RBI, .385 OBP) and V Martinez (25 home runs, 114 RBI, .374 OBP) paced the Indians attack, but their most valuable player was Centerfielder Grady Sizemore: .390 OBP, 33 steals in 43 tries, 24 home runs, 118 runs scored, 34 doubles, 101 walks. Power, speed, defense, Sizemore has it all. Sizemore’s 123 Runs Created and 124 Base Runs (BR is a little like RC) ranked him sixth and fourth in the American League respectively. If Sizemore plays anything like what he did in 2007, the Indians are going to be difficult to beat. First place again, until someone persuades me differently … I always try and resist being enamored of teams that make big moves in the off-season because moves that look good on paper rarely turn out in the regular season. Remember the ’02 New York Mets? Well, the ’08 Detroit Tigers could be a great team, but they have a real potential to disappoint. I tend to think that they’ll be a good team, but they could also struggle. The ’07 Tigers scored 887 runs. Now the ’08 Tigers return with basically the same lineup except they now have Miguel Cabrera (34 Home Runs, 119 RBI, 38 Doubles, .966 OPS) playing third base. Yikes. The Tigers scored a lot of runs thanks to timely hitting in 2007 (.311 BA/RISP, about eighteen points higher than the Yankees) and now will have some additional power in their lineup. However, I would be nervous, Tigers fans, over the fact that seven of their nine position players are over the age of 32:
CF – Chris Granderson: 27
LF – Jacque Jones: 33
RF – Magglio Ordonez: 34
1B – Carlos Guillen: 32
2B – Placido Polanco: 32
3B – Miguel Cabrera: 25
SS – Edgar Renteria: 32
C – Ivan Rodriguez: 36
DH – Gary Sheffield: 39
In particular, Ordonez and Sheffield – critical cogs in their offense – are due for major declines in 2008, in my opinion. Don’t be surprised to see Cabrera hitting home runs in droves and for the Tigers to still struggle at the plate. Their .311 BA/RISP is not going to be repeated in 2008. The key to the Tigers play in 2008 is going to be whether or not Granderson can repeat what he did in 2007: 23 home runs, 23 triples, 38 doubles, 26 steals in 27 tries, .361 OBP, 122 runs scored. With Granderson’s speed and power pacing their attack, the Tigers are deadly at the plate. Fielding: Granderson played well in centerfield, with a .921 Zone Rating (ZR) and 85 plays on balls outside of his zone. Second baseman Placido Polanco also had a fielding percentage of 1.000 in 2007. That’s right: 1,209 innings of work, 294 putouts, 389 assists, and not a single error. Nice work. But even with glove stars like Granderson and Polanco, the Tigers defense was substandard in 2007. They need to do better and might actually be worse with Brad Inge sitting on the bench. Pitching-wise, Dontrelle Willis might be the bigger addition for the Tigers, however, helping to stabilize a rotation that was actually below-average in 2007 (4.57 ERA). Willis, who had an off-year in 2007 (10-15, 5.17 ERA), will benefit from the change in scenery and will do well paired with Justin Verlander (18-6, 3.66 ERA). Jeremy Bonderman needs to do better than his 5.01 ERA. Their bullpen is weak too. Don’t be surprised to see the Tigers try and pry Joe Nathan off of the Twins, or Joe Blanton from the A’s. I look at the ’08 Tigers and I see a team that might be better in 2008, but it also might not … I was sorely tempted to rank the Chicago White Sox first in the A.L. Central and make them a playoff team, but I am wary about making such a bold prediction. I’ll play it safe and say 83-86 wins and third place for the ChiSox, but the truth is that the ’08 White Sox might be very, very good. They made a lot of good moves in the off-season. Nothing as flashy as the deals made by the Mets and Tigers, but ones that will pay off in the long run. Goodbye Darin Erstad (4 home runs, 32 RBI, .310 OBP), Jon Garland (10-13, 4.23 ERA), and Scott Podsednik (2 home runs, 11 RBI, .290 OBP). The elimination of Erstad and Podsednik alone qualifies as addition by subtraction. In their place the White Sox bolstered their bullpen by adding Scott Linebrink (3.80 ERA) and Octavio Dotel (4.11 ERA, 11 saves in 15 tries in 2007). Orlando Cabrera, gained in the Garland deal, bolsters a bad defense (-76 plays according to John Dewan’s Plus / Minus system) with his glove work (4.42 Range Factor, .983 Fielding Percentage). Finally, the White Sox stole Nick Swisher from the Oakland A’s. After the Tigers, the White Sox might be the most improved team in baseball. (Yes, more improved than the Mets.) I noticed that nearly all of these moves made by the White Sox basically flew under the radar of the baseball establishment. The only thing that would worry me is the fact that, like the Tigers, the White Sox have some older key players, such as Jermaine Dye (34), Jim Thome (37), and Paul Konerko (32). Catcher A.J. Pierzynski and Third Baseman Joe Crede are 31 and 30 respectively. The play of Dye will be key in 2008. He slumped badly in ’07, hitting 28 home runs and 78 RBI with an OBP of just .317. With Dye went the White Sox offense. As a team they ranked dead-last in the A.L. in OBP at .318. The White Sox lineup has some pop – second in the American league in home runs – but they hit a lot of solo home runs. Despite hitting 190 homers, the White Sox finished last in the A.L. in runs scored with 693. White Sox hitters hit the fewest singles in the A.L.: 882, and the fewest doubles: 249. The teams decision to re-emphasize “small ball” in 2007 was a tragic mistake. The team’s 41 sacrifice bunts squandered outs they could ill afford, and the 45 times they were caught stealing hurt too. They need to hit more consistently and set the table more in 2008. They also need to get more consistent play from their starting pitchers to get the team into position to hand off their leads to strong bullpens. I look for former Phillie Gavin Floyd to have a good season for them to have success. That weakness in their pitching staff is the only reason why I am not ranking them ahead of the Tigers. That, and their defense was terrible in 2007 … Here is the reason why the Minnesota Twins won’t do worse than their 79-83 record from 2007. They signed Adam Everett. ‘Nuff said. Adam Everett, as sabremetricians know, is one of the finest defensive players in all of baseball. Not as flashy or as adored by the media like the Yankees Derek Jeter, but a great player. Between 2005 and 2007, Adam Everett rated a whopping +92 under John Dewan’s Plus / Minus system, meaning that Everett made 92 more plays than an average player would have made in that time. Assuming that a play equals half a run, that’s 45 or so runs Everett saved with his glove over the last three years, phenomenal work on his part. And yet Everett attracted scant attention on the free agency market, allowing the Twins to scarf him up. This team is going to be fine, Johan Santana or no Johan Santana, because they make moves like that. This is, in my estimation, a young team that is going to be able to win baseball games. Francisco Liriano, who went 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA in 2006 before being injured and missing 2007, will be able to pick up the slack. The team also has star closer Joe Nathan (37 of 41 saves, 1.88 ERA in 2007), who is available to nail down victories, or the ability to snare prospects when the Twins ship him to a team like the Angels or Mariners, desperate to win. At the plate the Twins may miss Torii Hunter’s bat, but they’ve got terrific weapons in Joe Mauer (.382 OBP in 2007), and Justin Morneau (31 home runs, 111 RBI, .343 OBP). The Twins will have to win a lot of 3-2 games, but they have the ability and guys like Mauer and Morneau can help them squeeze out the runs. Losing Santana will hurt, but this team can do .500 … When thinking about the Kansas City Royals I am reminded of the line from Rounders when Matt Damon said if you look around a card table and can’t pick out the sucker, then you’re it. I wonder if the Royals approach their season the same way. Look around the table: the stacked Indians, the improved Tigers and White Sox, the still-dangerous Twins. The Royals are the suckers. Sadly, once upon a time (okay, it was 1975 – 1985) the Royals were actually a pretty good team. Just a few years after their creation in ’69, Whitey Herzog led them to a 91-71 finish in ’75, then three consecutive division titles (and three consecutive ALCS losses to the Yankees), becoming the Phillies victim in the ’80 World Series, more near-misses in ’81 and ’84 before stunning the Cardinals in the ’85 World Series. Since then there have been few highs for Royals fans: 100+ losses four of the last six seasons and the strengthening of the division from being a collection of doormats to real contenders. The Royals have some talent on the roster – Third Baseman Alex Gordon and Leftfielder Mark Teahan stand out – but the team needs to expand their payroll and build their farm system. I will note that the teams decision to award Gil Meche a $55 million-dollar deal, much maligned at the time, doesn’t look so crazy when you consider that Meche posted a respectable 3.67 ERA in 2007. Maybe the Royals are moving in the right direction after all …
A.L. West
1. Anaheim Angels
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Texas Rangers
4. Oakland A’s
The A.L. West … Basically, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (or whatever the heck their name is) cannot fail to make the playoffs. It’s virtually impossible. It is very possible that none of the other teams in their division will have a winning record, so the Angels could waltz into the playoffs with a 82-80 record quite easily. I’m not a huge fan of the Angels, that collection of small ballers that led the American League in sacrifice hits and was second in stolen bases in 2007. I don’t like the way they play baseball and I don’t think the team is particularly good. The sad fact is that the Halos are poised to dominate the A.L. West for years to come because the division is so weak now and management has very deep pockets. The ’08 Angels feature a solid pitching staff consisting of John Lackey (19-9, 3.01 ERA, but a 3.66 FIP), Jered Weaver (13-7, 4.30 ERA) and new addition Jon Garland (10-13, 4.23 ERA). The below-average defense is sapped by the team’s decision to ship Orlando Cabrera to the White Sox in the Garland deal. Any team featuring Vlad Guerrero and Torii Hunter in the outfield won’t be totally bad, however. Speaking of Hunter, he was the Angels big acquisition in the off-season, as the team forked out $90 million over six years for the declining star. Hunter hit .287 with 28 home runs and 107 RBI in 2007 for the Twins, but he also was caught nine of the twenty-seven times he tried to steal, grounded into 17 double plays, and struck out 101 times. Hunter turns 32 this season and the Bill James Handbook projects a decline. Certainly this is a deal that the Angels will regret – as they regretted their decision to sign Gary Matthews, Jr. the previous year – as Hunter gets into 2010, 2011 and 2012. The Angels lack of power is the reason why they aren’t likely to get past the first round of the playoffs and probably won’t do better than third or fourth in the East or Central divisions. You can’t always move the ball with bunts and steals and clutch hitting. The Angels wait for the perfect bunting situation and they are still waiting. The sad fact is that the rest of the division is so weak that the Angels are a near-lock to make the playoffs … I’ve always liked the Seattle Mariners. The ’07 team was a major surprise, actually challenging the Angels for the division before fading down the stretch. They were an absurdly lucky team last year, winning 88 games despite being outscored by 19 runs! Their Pythagorean win-loss record ought to have been 79-83. In case you are wondering how the A.L. West would have looked:
“Real”:
1. Anaheim: 94-68
2. Seattle: 88-74
3. Oakland: 76-86
4. Texas: 75-87
“Pythagorean”: (Games Under / Over)
1. Anaheim: 90-72 (-4)
2. Oakland: 79-83 (+3)
3. Seattle: 79-83 (-9)
4. Texas: 78-84 (+3)
That doesn’t auger well for 2008. Unfortunately the Mariners decided to bet their farm system on a playoff push in 2008 by sending loads of prospects to the Orioles for Erik Bedard (13-5, 3.16 ERA), so the Mariners can team him with Felix Hernandez, the phenom who stunned the Red Sox by out-pitching Dice-K Matsuzaka in his TV debut before settling into a mediocre 14-7 with a 3.92 ERA. The Mariners are hoping that Bedard and a rejuvenated King Felix can give the team a big one-two punch in 2008. The Mariners also made the bone-headed decision to give millions to Carlos Silva (13-14, 4.19 ERA), one of the few decent – and by that I mean better than awful – arms on the free agency market. I think the Mariners real problem is that they don’t muster much offense (794 runs scored, exactly the A.L. average) and their fielding is surprisingly poor – a .675 DER, thirteenth in the A.L., higher only than the Tampa Bay Rays. Ichiro Suzuki will continue to be a hitting dynamo (.351 batting average, second-best in the A.L.), but the Mariners can’t score runs unless Adrian Beltre re-discovers what made his 2004 season with the Dodgers so amazing (48 home runs, 121 RBI, 120 Runs Created). Since ‘04, Beltre has been a bust:
Runs Created
2004: 120
2005: 75
2006: 85
2007: 79
Perhaps the Mariners should have realized that Beltre’s 2004 season was a big anomaly compared to his career between 1999 and 2003:
Runs Created:
1999: 84
2000: 85
2001: 60
2002: 74
2003: 66
I’ll stop beating up on the Mariners, but their massive contract to Beltre has a major blunder that the team is going to be paying for years to come. I see the Mariners winning 75-80 games at best and second place … Lots of former Phillies on the Texas Rangers roster. Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, and Robinson Tejada are likely to be three of the Rangers five starting pitchers, while Marlon Byrd patrols their outfield. The ’07 Rangers struggled through a difficult season but seem like they are headed in the right direction finally. Even without Mark Teixeira, the Rangers are going to hit a lot of home runs at the Ballpark at Arlington. Their problem is that they need to improve their pitching staff – their 4.89 FIP ERA was the worst in the A.L. – and they need to play better defense. Their 0.56 UERA was worst in the A.L. The Rangers need to be more technically sound before they can think about contending … The Oakland A’s are in the midst of a rebuilding project after their sputtering 76-86 finish in 2007. Gone are pitcher Dan Haren (15-9, 3.07 ERA) and outfielder Nick Swisher (22 home runs, 78 RBI, .381 OBP), as well as Mike Piazza, Mark Kotsay and Shannon Stewart. Look for Billy Beane to deal Joe Blanton (14-10, 3.95 ERA) to a contender (White Sox?) before the season is done. Swisher and Blanton, of course, were major figures in Michael Lewis’ book Moneyball (see, pages 113-114), so the 2007-2008 campaigns are a major turning point for the A’s. Can the A’s compete in the A.L. West even with their depleted roster? Anything is possible, but I am a skeptic. Even with Jack Cust, the A’s are unlikely to even equal their 76 wins from last season. This is a 70-72 win team. In the long run, however, the future is bright for the A’s.
The Playoff Race … will go along with a fierce race in the A.L. East between the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox that sees the Red Sox pull away in August to capture the A.L. East crown, while the Angels have the West locked up around Labor Day. Meanwhile, in the Central, the White Sox, Indians and Tigers hold a spirited battle, all the while looking in their rear-view mirror at the Blue Jays and Yankees. When the season shakes out, the Indians narrowly take first place, the Tigers shift their attention in time and take the wildcard and the Yankees sit out the post-season for the first time since 1993.
Dark horse team: Minnesota Twins. Remember when Alex Rodriguez fled the Seattle Mariners and they ended up winning 116 games the next season? I’m not saying that the Twins are going to do that, but shedding the aging Torii Hunter and losing Johan Santana might not be the catastrophe that everyone seems to believe that it is. They seem to be stout defensively with Everett and might be as good with Liriano on the mound as Santana. Maybe a wildcard contender?
The playoffs …
ALDS:
Boston over Detroit, 3-1
Cleveland over Anaheim, 3-0
The Tigers improved hitting is no match for the Red Sox pitching, as the Tigers fall in four. Meanwhile, the Indians make swift work of the Angels, who lack a real offensive threat to challenge the Indians robust pitching staff.
ALCS:
Cleveland over Boston, 4-3
In an upset, the Indians manage to stave off the Red Sox and win the series in four games, with C.C. Sabathia out-dueling Beckett to win the critical seventh game. This will be a dramatic series and the most memorable in baseball since the ’04 ALCS.
Awards:
A.L. MVP: David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox. The great hero of the ’04 ALCS, the tremendous presence at the plate that he is, Ortiz is the best player in the A.L. who does not pitch. Yes, he doesn’t play defense, but no team expects more of Ortiz and he’s always delivered the clutch hits, he’s always hit the big three-run bomb when the Red Sox need him. Ortiz will probably club 40+ home runs, 120+ RBI, draw 110-120 walks, 50+ doubles, and lead the A.L. in most offensive categories. Runners up: Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees; Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Tigers, and Grady Sizemore, CF, Indians.
A.L. Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia, Starting Pitcher, Indians. I actually think a pretty good argument can be made for Sabathia for MVP, but pitchers never get considered. That said, with Johan Santana gone the path for Sabathia to take his second consecutive Cy Young is pretty clear. Runners up: Dice-K Matsuzaka, Starting Pitcher, Red Sox; Jonathan Papelbon, Closer, Red Sox; Fausto Cardamona, Starting Pitcher, Indians.
A.L. Rookie of the Year: Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays. Longoria will enter the Rays lineup and hit 30 Home Runs and 80-90 RBI. Runner up: Mike Costanzo, 1B, Baltimore Orioles.
More on the N.L. next Monday …
Labels: American League, Predictions
