Wednesday, March 05, 2008
Spring Training
There was a nice little article in the February 25, 2008, edition of The Sporting News entitled “Producing Happy Campers” (pages 44-45) about Spring Training. The article noted a few small differences between the Phillies and Mets last year where the Phillies edged the Mets on seemingly innocuous matters: the Phillies were caught stealing just 19 times in 157 attempts, while the Mets were caught 46 times in 252 tries. Phillies pitchers had a better fielding percentage than Mets pitchers did: .970 to .961 … The differences, so slight, might have amounted to an extra win in the standings, and in the Phillies case that one play successfully made, that one mistake avoided, gave the Phillies the N.L. East and sent the Mets home. And the seeds for that success were planted in the bright sunshine of Spring Training.
Last season I credited the Phillies phenomenal success in stealing bases and their general abilities on the bases to the tutelage of first base coach Davey Lopes, who preached a doctrine of aggressiveness to a team that had been slower and more methodical on the bases in the past. That emphasis on speed was what honed the blade of the Phillies razor, I thought, and thus I heaped the lions share of credit on Lopes.
The Sporting News article makes the case for bench coach Jimy Williams as The Man behind the Phillies success in 2007. Praised by Braves manager Bobby Cox as “the best in the game”, Williams will basically run the Phillies until the team gets north in April. Williams teaching is important because the Phillies utilize young players a lot. I think one of the things that is lost in all of the talk about the Phillies playoff chances this season is that the future is brighter for the Phillies than it is for the older Mets. All of the key Phillies are young – Kyle Kendrick is 22, Cole Hamels is 23, Shane Victorino, Brett Myers and Ryan Madson are 26, Ryan Howard is 27, and Jayson Werth, Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Ruiz and Chase Utley are all 28 – and are committed to the team for 2008, 2009 and most for 2010. In some way or another all of these players are products of either the Phillies farm system or extensive teaching with Williams. Williams turned Victorino from a fast player into a major threat to steal bases. 24-year old Michael Bourn, now with the Houston Astros, was a major help to the Phillies last season.
Here is a link to the article, which was pretty interesting stuff.
Meanwhile, Spring Training rolls along, with the Phillies dropping a 10-1 decision to the Atlanta Braves, watching as Kyle Kendrick served up seven runs in two and 2/3 of an inning of work. Suddenly Kendrick's spot as the #4 starter doesn't look so secure ...
Eric Brunlett is hitting .429 ... Not bad. This year's candidate for surprising new addition?
Labels: Speed, Spring Training
Monday, March 03, 2008
Spring Baseball
Pitching … Thus far the Phillies team ERA sits at a hefty 6.25. The team has tossed 36 innings and surrendered 25 earned runs (I’m not including the numbers from yesterday’s tie in the mix). They’ve surrendered 2.00 home runs per nine innings, 4.50 walks per nine innings and 6.50 strikeouts per nine innings and have a 1.44 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Two pitching performances have stood out as being outstanding:
Jamie Moyer, the ageless wonder, hurled three innings on the first day of spring training and surrendered just one hit, didn’t allow a run, a home run or a walk and struck-out three hitters. Not bad.
Travis Blackley, the Phillies Rule 5 Draftee fighting for a roster spot, tossed three shut-out innings as well, allowing just on hit, no walks or home runs, and struck-out two hitters. This performance thus far strongly suggests that Blackley is in the running to make the Phillies Opening Day roster and stay with the team in 2008.
Carlos Carrasco, the Phillies highly-touted rookie, tossed three innings and struck-out three, allowing just three hits and no runs against the Yankees. Nice job.
Performances that ought to worry Phillies fans … Temporary closer Tom Gordon has pitched two-thirds of an inning and allowed two runs on two hits and a walk … In two innings of work, Adam Eaton surrendered five hits (one a home run) and two runs.
As yet there isn’t a whole lot of data to extract positive clues from, but the preliminary outcomes suggest that the Phillies pitching is going to have some weak points.
Over on the offensive side, many Phillies hitters are off to big starts. Carlos Ruiz is hitting .667 on four-of-six at the plate with two doubles and an RBI. Pedro Feliz is hitting .571 on four-of-seven hitting with two doubles and an RBI. Ryan Howard is four-for-ten with two doubles and a home run and three RBI, while Chase Utley is three-for-eight with three doubles and two RBI.
Some Phillies are struggling – Pat Burrell is one-for-six and Jimmy Rollins is one-for-seven – but these are traditionally slow-starting hitters. Wes Helms – zero-for-six – has lost his position as the third baseman and won’t mount much of an argument to reclaim it with this spring performance.
Quick Eagles discussion … The Birds have made some nice moves in free agency, inking Chris Clemons and Assante Samuel to deals to strengthen the defensive unit. Samuel is a real shut-down corner who will strengthen the Eagles pass-rush by locking down wideouts. I hope the Eagles resist the temptation to deal Lito Shepard and keep him and Sheldon Brown to play next to Samuel. Having three Pro Bowl quality cornerbacks can’t hurt in a division where you play Plaxico Burress and T.O., can it? Clemons is a little under-sized and may not be able to fight through the rigors on the NFL regular season as a starter, but the team seemed committed to a rotation-style strategy on the defensive line … I’ve been very impressed by the splash that the Cleveland Browns have made this off-season, keeping Derek Anderson and Jamal Lewis, their quarterback and running back respectively, and acquiring game-breaking wideout Donte Stallworth, the former Eagle. The Eagles – Browns game this year is going to be a big, big battle.
Labels: Batting, Blackley, Burrell, Carrasco, Gordon, Helms, Howard, Moyer, Pitching, Rollins, Spring Training, State of the Phillies
Friday, February 29, 2008
Outman, Savery & Feliz
Savery: 1 IP, 5 Earned Runs, 4 Hits, 1 Walk, 2 Strikeouts.
Outman: 1 & 2/3 IP, 4 Earned Runs, 5 Hits, 0 Walks, 2 Strikeouts.
Both will do better next time. Remember, Savery was pitching college baseball this time last year and he got burned facing quality major league hitters. Outman is still in the minors and won’t be MLB ready until mid-season or the fall. Savery, Outman and Carlos Carrasco are going to be big additions to the Phillies rotation in 2009 and 2010.
On the plus side, Feliz is now 4-for-5 with the Phillies!
Meanwhile, the Phillies decided to slice off discussion about moving Brett Myers to the bullpen by electing to name him their Opening Day starter, a decision that may (or may not) have reportedly angered Cole Hamels.
The decision is largely symbolic: Opening Day is just one game in 162. Getting the nod for Opening Day is an acknowledgment of who someone regards as the team’s best pitcher, and I can understand why Hamels might be upset.
This will be the second Opening Day in a row for Myers, who started Opening Day for the Phillies last season and pitched a good game – out-pitching Braves starter John Smoltz in most respects – before getting the no-decision in the Braves comeback victory. (Incidentally, Jon Lieber hurled Opening Day for the Phillies in 2005 and 2006.) Hamels, the Phillies front-runner for the Cy Young Award and the team’s acknowledged ace pitcher, probably ought to have gotten the nod, but the team decided that the ability to take the focus off the bullpen and onto Myers role as a starter out-weighed the negatives.
It’s hard to compare the numbers Myers and Hamels turned in last season because Myers numbers as a closer are going to be different: fewer innings, the ability to hurl the ball knowing you have just a few outs to get, pitching with runners on, etc. I elected to compare Myers 2006 campaign with Hamels 2007 campaign:
Myers ’06 / Hamels ‘07
W – L: 12-7 / 15-5
ERA: 3.91 / 3.39
FIP: 4.17 / 3.80
HR/9: 1.32 / 1.23
BB/9: 2.86 / 2.11
K/9: 8.59 / 8.68
K/BB: 3.00 / 4.11
Slight edge to Hamels here, but Myers was very, very good was when was the starter, so this is a dynamic 1-2 punch the Phillies have here.
Labels: Carrasco, Feliz, Hamels, Moyer, Myers, Outman, Savery, Spring Training
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
It May Be Cold in Philadelphia ...
Today’s game with the Reds features Jamie Moyer taking the mound for the Phillies. The Phillies want Ryan Madson, Clay Condrey and Travis Blackley to take the mound as well today. Obviously Moyer and Madson will be on the Phillies 25-man roster when the team heads north to
Coming up … Thanks to the rain-out minor-leaguers Savery and Josh Outman, a pitcher I am very high on, are now slated to pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates tomorrow and Friday. Adam Eaton makes his first start since being left off the Phillies playoff roster on Saturday in
In other Phillies news, The Phillies named Brett Myers their Opening Day starter, a wise move given all of the talk swirling around about Brad Lidge’s injury. Just remove any talk of Myers going to the bullpen, keep him focused on being a starter this season.
A brief word about the craziness of yesterday … I posted a brief piece yesterday arguing that the Mets acquisition of Johan Santana doesn’t make them the team to beat in the N.L. East. Usually those who post comments on my blog post a handful of observations that are interesting and informative. To my stunned amazement, I got somewhere around 120-130 comments on my blog after a Mets Blog posted a link to my post and the majority of the comments were exceptional in their nastiness and their anger towards me. Many of the comments were vulgar and contradictory. In one particularly bizarre moment, after I commented on the profanity of Mets fans, one commenter assailed me for not censoring the comments and stated the profanity was actually MY fault (i.e., I allowed it to be posted) and that I shouldn’t blame Mets fans for a profanity laden comment a Mets fan posted. Wow. Only in New York … Or maybe the Soviet Union …
I’ve bristled over the years at the suggestion that Phillies fans are a bunch of loud-mouthed brutes. The booing of Santa Claus all those years ago, for example, is an incident constantly thrown back at Philly sports fans as prima facie evidence of their idioticy. Well, there are Philly sports fans who are calm and friendly people. I count myself as one of them, so I resent the stereotype. I will try to resist the temptation to believe that all Mets fans are boorish nuts, but their comments on my blog leave me with little alternative.
That said, some of the better reasoned comments revolved around my criticism of John Maine. Apparently my main sin in my post was to argue that John Maine isn’t a good pitcher, or more accurately, that Maine isn't the great pitcher that Mets fans seem to think he is. Jeez, fellas. He’s pitched just 324 innings in his career so far. He had a decent season last year, but he was hardly the world-beater that Mets fans have built him up in their minds. He’s a young pitcher with a lot to learn. The Bill James Handbook, for example, predicts Maine will go 12-11 with a 4.05 ERA in 2008. You’re assailing me for believing that a pitcher with a single full season of experience is going to struggle next year. Disagree with my conclusions, but don't call me an idiot for not seeing the world from your perspective.
Which leads me to another point. Disagree with me people, but don’t be disagreeable about it. That's really what bothers me about the flame war that erupted on my blog yesterday.
I realized, and felt a little sorry for them when I did, that the psychosis of Mets fans is on display here: for not agreeing with the conventional wisdom that Johan Santana guarantees the pennant to the Mets before the first pitch of spring training (that is why games are played on grass, not on paper), I was angrily savaged by a bunch of guys who live in their parents basement in Long Island. There is an angry desperation in their words. They HAVE to believe that Johan Santana makes them into the best team in baseball. They HAVE to beat down everyone who disagrees with them. They HAVE to have the world agree with them … Why? Well, I think the collapse of the Mets last season was so tragic and the acquisition of Santana so dramatic, Mets fans NEED to feel that their team is the best team there is. It is reassuring to them. They’ve had heartbreak before: 1989, when the great late-80’s Mets teams cracked up, ’02, last season … I don’t think Mets fans could, emotionally, survive another collapse. That's why they attacked me.
Good luck fellas.
Labels: Eaton, Kenderick, Myers, Odds 'n Ends, Pitching, Rotation, Savery, Spring Training
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
The Journey North: Are the Phillies Ready?
It doesn’t seem like the Phillies are prepared, mentally, for the long haul of the season ahead. They’ve been sloppy this pre-season. They don’t seem like they are hitting the ball well and there have been a raft of injuries.
1. Freddy Garcia, the Phillies major off-season acquisition, may or may not be prepared to start the season due to a biceps injury. I tend to think that Garcia will be ready to go, but a major injury (or even just a long-term nagging one) to Garcia would be a major blow to the Phillies, who brought Garcia to Philadelphia in exchange for two outstanding pitching prospects, knowing that they were just renting him for the ’07 campaign. This is garcia’s walk year and he’ll probably expect to command millions upon millions of dollars on the open market. Dollars the Phillies cannot match, so they need Garcia to be healthy to justify the price they paid.
Ironically, the likely replacement for Garcia and Adam Eaton, the Phillies other major acquisition, Jon Lieber, is out indefinitely with an abdominal muscle, precluding the Phillies from swinging a deal to ship him somewhere in exchange for a middle relief pitcher.
2. Carlos Ruiz was also suffering from a biceps injury, but is expected back soon. Ruiz uncertain status might be good news for many Chris Coste fans out there in the blogging world: Ruiz’s status might encourage the Phillies to keep Coste with the team when it heads north.
3. Ryan Howard. Disturbingly, the 2006 N.L. MVP has been slumping at the plate recently, going 0-for-17, and apparently losing his temper when he talked with a sports writer. Howard is 12-for-52 this spring with just two home runs. Coming off of a season in which he clubbed 58 home runs, perhaps a little of a let-down was to be expected, but I think that Ryan Howard might be in for a bigger decline than we all anticipated. Between teams pitching around him and the natural regression to the mean, Howard might slump into the 35-40 home run range … If I played major league baseball, I’d be estatic hitting just ten home runs, but Ryan Howard and the Phillies would be very, very disappointed.
The 2007 Bill James Handbook doesn’t see much of a chance for Howard to slump, however: they project Ryan Howard to hit 56 home runs, 148 RBIs and have 167 Runs Created in 2007, basically what he had in 2006 (58, 149, 138). I can’t help but wonder if that is wildly optimistic.
4. Aaron Rowand & Pat Burrell are both really struggling (.169 with a home run, three doubles and eight RBIs, and .178 with a home run, three doubles and seven RBIs, respectively). Burrell I am less worried about: he’s never had a particularly high batting average because he draws a lot of walks. For Rowand, who drew 18 walks in 2006, this is a major, major cause for concern. Rowand could be a major, major anchor on the Phillies offense. Let’s hope his defense makes up for it.
A few weeks ago I was feeling very optimistic as the Phillies broke camp. Best offense in the majors, a revamped pitching staff … this team was primed to contend. Now I look and I wonder if the Phillies pitching will be healthy, and I see major problems with the Phillies 4, 5, & 6 hitters.
Hmmm….
Labels: Burrell, Garcia, Howard, Predictions, Rollins, Rowand, Ruiz, Spring Training
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Spring Training So Far....
It’s just Spring Training! That said …
1. This Shane Victorino is doing a nice job. He’s hitting .439 (18-of-41), with twelve runs scored and five batted in. Victorino has stolen four bases in six tries as well. Power? A conspicuous absence in Victorino’s recent past, but he’s hit one home run and three doubles (.585 Slugging Percentage). Good sign for Victorino, who is likely to step up and be the Phillies right fielder and #2 hitter.
2. Michael Bourn is making a terrific argument for staying with the team when it treks up north in two weeks. He’s hitting .389 (14-for-36), with fourteen runs scored. What has me very impressed are his speed scores: so far he’s five-for-five in terms of stolen bases and two of his fourteen hits are triples. You could hardly argue for a stronger spring on Bourn’s part, particularly considering that Chris Roberson, Bourn’s presumptive competitor, is zero-for-ten (.000 batting average) with a single stolen base and three runs scored.
3. Pat Burrell isn’t doing me any favors with his weak spring. Five-for-twenty-five (.200), with three doubles and a home run, three runs scored and four RBIs. I’d expect him to be doing better than that, although I haven’t an idea what his OBP is and his Isolated Power at the plate is a robust .240.
4. If Pat Burrell is struggling, then Aaron Rowand is tanking this spring. Five-for-thirty-nine (.128!!!!!), with two runs scored and five RBIs. Rowand is displaying no speed on the base paths and no power at the plate (.103 ISO). If this portends for Rowand’s 2007 campaign, then the Phillies have a major, major problem.
5. I have a bad feeling about the status of Chris Coste with the team. Bourn is playing well, as is Karim Garcia, and the apparently the team had a meeting with Coste … I see a cold spring in Ottawa in Coste’s future, which is too bad given how well he played with the team in 2006.
6. Jamie Moyer is pitching well for the Phillies, leading the team this spring in innings pitched with a 2.51 ERA. Adam Eaton is also pitching the ball well. Scouts, I’ve read, think he’s really hurling the ball well.
So it’s just Spring Training. But it gives us something to talk about …
Labels: Spring Training
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Phillies Baseball Begins
Labels: Drabek, Pitching, Spring Training
