Monday, May 05, 2008
Adam Eaton Rocks & Phillies vs. Diamondbacks
Okay, the title is a little tongue-in-cheek, but it is partly true. Don’t look now Phillies fans but Adam Eaton, the disaster who had a 6.29 ERA last season, the guy who was pitching so bad that the Phillies left him off their playoff roster with the Colorado Rockies despite the fact that the Phillies are paying him $24 million dollars over the next three seasons … Isn’t pitching half bad this season.
Let’s take you back to a year ago. In the 2006-2007 off-season the Phillies signed Eaton, a former Phillies draft pick the team had sent west to the San Diego Padres in a trade years earlier, to a three-year, $24 million dollar deal (someone correct me if the numbers are off on that figure). In a pitching-thin marketplace, Eaton was one of the better talents out there, having gone 7-4 with a 5.12 ERA the previous season with the Texas Rangers. Eaton, who had spent the previous six seasons with the Padres after breaking in during the ’00 season, had started just thirteen games for the Rangers and had given up 11 home runs. He struggled, but had put up good numbers from ’00 – ’05 for the Padres and the Phillies desperately wanted to augment their leaky pitching staff. So the red pinstripes cut a check and Eaton came back to the team that saw enough in him to take him in the draft.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined with respect to pitching stats:
Earned Run Average (ERA): Runs Allowed * 9 / Innings Pitched = What a pitcher would give up if they hurled a nine-inning game.
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): (((13 * HR) + (3 * BB) – (2 * K)) / IP) + League Factor. Basically a measure of how a pitcher would have done if he had an average defense behind him.
Defense Independent Pitching Statistic (DIPS): The more sophisticated version of FIP developed by Voros McCracken that takes into account park factors and other considerations.
Home Runs per 9 Innings (HR/9): (HR * 9) / IP
Walks per 9 Innings (BB/9): (BB * 9) / IP
Strikeouts per 9 Innings (K/9): (K * 9) / IP
The end result was disaster. A 10-10 record that was largely the product of run support, as it was built on an ERA of 6.29. Eaton walked 71 hitters (3.95 BB/9) and gave up 30 home runs (1.67 HR/9). Opponents grounded into 19 double plays against him, more a product of them having so many runners on base than Eaton’s skills. Eaton’s 97 strikeouts in 161 and two-thirds of an inning (5.4 K/9) were respectable, but when coupled with his walk rate, they gave him a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1.37 (K/BB). Eaton was so bad that he earned just one Win Share in 2007, two below what a bench player would have earned. (In contrast, Cole Hamels earned 15 in 2007.) The Phillies, in the playoffs despite Eaton’s struggles, took no chances and left Eaton off the team’s playoff roster against the Rockies. In the off-season the team tried everything they could think of to scrap together pitching talent on the cheap, taking Travis Blackley from San Francisco in the Rule 5 Draft, and signing Chad Durbin from the Detroit Tigers. Neither Blackley nor Durbin could oust Eaton from the job, however, and Eaton returned to the Phillies rotation for 2008.
The numbers don’t really reflect it, but Eaton’s been pretty good this season: yeah he doesn’t have a win yet, but he also doesn’t have a loss. His six starts were all no-decisions. There are a few things that impress me though once you look inside of the numbers:
First off, Eaton’s average Game Score for this season has been 48. His average Game Score in 2007 was 42. Game Score is a stat devised by Bill James where a pitcher begins with a score of 50 and then is awarded or subtracted points for various events: add a point for a strikeout, subtract one for a walk, subtract four points for a run allowed, etc.
Second, four of Eaton’s six starts have been Quality Starts. A Quality Start is a start where the pitcher allows three or less runs and makes it six innings or more. Eaton tossed just 9 of those in 30 starts last season.
The reason for Eaton’s success this season has been that he’s cut down on the extra-base hits. Eaton’s slugging percentage allowed is just .402, far less than the .520 he allowed in 2007. So far this season he’s allowed three home runs in 34 and one-third of an inning (0.79 HR/9). As a result, Eaton’s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA has dropped this season to 4.09, nearly two runs better than last season’s 5.93 FIP. Incidentially, Eaton’s 4.09 FIP is just behind the 4.00 FIP posted by a certain Mets pitcher who we’ll call Johan S. … And Eaton's FIP is better than the Mets John Maine (4.71), the much-vaunted pitcher who Mets fans acted like I was crazy for believing wasn't the Second Coming.
What about DIPS, you ask? Well, Eaton's DIPS is a little worse: 4.35. Still, that's better than his real ERA and takes park factors into account. Additionally, Eaton's DIPS is better than Oliver Perez (4.38), Maine (4.86), Jamie Moyer (4.82) and the Giants Matt Cain (4.63).
It is a little too soon to hand out the Cy Young award to Eaton, however. He needs to improve his strikeout and walk ratios before he can be called out of the woods. His K/BB ratio this season is 1.46, barely improved over last season.
The inability to get strikeouts is where Eaton has struggled over the last few seasons. In Eaton’s first six seasons with the Padres his strikeouts per nine innings rate was 6.00 or better:
K/9:
2000: 6.00
2001: 8.41
2002: 6.75
2003: 7.18
2004: 6.91
2005: 7.00
Since then he’s been sub-6.00:
K/9:
2006 (Rangers): 5.95
2007 (Phillies): 5.40
2008 (Phillies): 5.34
He needs to improve that, and soon.
Here’s a little-known fact about Adam Eaton: there probably isn’t a pitcher in baseball tougher to get a steal off of. In 2007 fifteen baserunners tried to steal a base off Eaton. Nine failed, a success rate of just 40%. The previous season, in Texas, two in seven were successful. So far this season: one successful steal in three tries.
I had almost forgotten, but the Phillies begin a big four-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight in the desert of Arizona, the start of a week-long roadtrip that will take the Phillies to the Bay Area to play the Giants again. Cole Hamels and Tim Lincecum are set to rematch Friday Night after last night’s 6-5 Phillies win netted a no-decision for both pitchers.
I would consider a 2-2 split of the Phillies – Diamondbacks series to be a major victory for the Phillies. The 21-10 D-Backs are clearly the best team in baseball right now and boast the best pitching staff in the majors. How good is the D-Backs 1-2 punch of Brandon Webb (7-0, 2.49 ERA, 3.00 DIPS) and Dan Haren (4-1, 3.12 ERA, 3.34 DIPS)? Fortunately for the Phillies, they miss Haren and have to face just Webb in this series. Adam Eaton squares off with the Big Unit (1-1, 4.79 ERA, 3.84 DIPS) tomorrow night. The D-Backs are second in the N.L. in runs scored and lead the N.L. in slugging percentage and triples. Not surprisingly, their team ERA is also best in the majors. They have a number of talented players who are really producing well and they rely on no one person to be successful. While the D-Backs have hit 36 home runs, nobody has hit more than 7. They are balanced and deep. Young, fast, aggressive, the D-Backs are built to be a powerhouse for a long time to come. This will be a tough series for the Phillies to win. If I had to bet on which game the phillies could win, I’d bet on tonight’s Jamie Moyer vs. Max Scherzer matchup.
Tomorrow: I’ll talk a little about last night’s game and a little about the Reading Phillies Jeremy Slayden.
(3) comments
Let’s take you back to a year ago. In the 2006-2007 off-season the Phillies signed Eaton, a former Phillies draft pick the team had sent west to the San Diego Padres in a trade years earlier, to a three-year, $24 million dollar deal (someone correct me if the numbers are off on that figure). In a pitching-thin marketplace, Eaton was one of the better talents out there, having gone 7-4 with a 5.12 ERA the previous season with the Texas Rangers. Eaton, who had spent the previous six seasons with the Padres after breaking in during the ’00 season, had started just thirteen games for the Rangers and had given up 11 home runs. He struggled, but had put up good numbers from ’00 – ’05 for the Padres and the Phillies desperately wanted to augment their leaky pitching staff. So the red pinstripes cut a check and Eaton came back to the team that saw enough in him to take him in the draft.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined with respect to pitching stats:
Earned Run Average (ERA): Runs Allowed * 9 / Innings Pitched = What a pitcher would give up if they hurled a nine-inning game.
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): (((13 * HR) + (3 * BB) – (2 * K)) / IP) + League Factor. Basically a measure of how a pitcher would have done if he had an average defense behind him.
Defense Independent Pitching Statistic (DIPS): The more sophisticated version of FIP developed by Voros McCracken that takes into account park factors and other considerations.
Home Runs per 9 Innings (HR/9): (HR * 9) / IP
Walks per 9 Innings (BB/9): (BB * 9) / IP
Strikeouts per 9 Innings (K/9): (K * 9) / IP
The end result was disaster. A 10-10 record that was largely the product of run support, as it was built on an ERA of 6.29. Eaton walked 71 hitters (3.95 BB/9) and gave up 30 home runs (1.67 HR/9). Opponents grounded into 19 double plays against him, more a product of them having so many runners on base than Eaton’s skills. Eaton’s 97 strikeouts in 161 and two-thirds of an inning (5.4 K/9) were respectable, but when coupled with his walk rate, they gave him a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1.37 (K/BB). Eaton was so bad that he earned just one Win Share in 2007, two below what a bench player would have earned. (In contrast, Cole Hamels earned 15 in 2007.) The Phillies, in the playoffs despite Eaton’s struggles, took no chances and left Eaton off the team’s playoff roster against the Rockies. In the off-season the team tried everything they could think of to scrap together pitching talent on the cheap, taking Travis Blackley from San Francisco in the Rule 5 Draft, and signing Chad Durbin from the Detroit Tigers. Neither Blackley nor Durbin could oust Eaton from the job, however, and Eaton returned to the Phillies rotation for 2008.
The numbers don’t really reflect it, but Eaton’s been pretty good this season: yeah he doesn’t have a win yet, but he also doesn’t have a loss. His six starts were all no-decisions. There are a few things that impress me though once you look inside of the numbers:
First off, Eaton’s average Game Score for this season has been 48. His average Game Score in 2007 was 42. Game Score is a stat devised by Bill James where a pitcher begins with a score of 50 and then is awarded or subtracted points for various events: add a point for a strikeout, subtract one for a walk, subtract four points for a run allowed, etc.
Second, four of Eaton’s six starts have been Quality Starts. A Quality Start is a start where the pitcher allows three or less runs and makes it six innings or more. Eaton tossed just 9 of those in 30 starts last season.
The reason for Eaton’s success this season has been that he’s cut down on the extra-base hits. Eaton’s slugging percentage allowed is just .402, far less than the .520 he allowed in 2007. So far this season he’s allowed three home runs in 34 and one-third of an inning (0.79 HR/9). As a result, Eaton’s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA has dropped this season to 4.09, nearly two runs better than last season’s 5.93 FIP. Incidentially, Eaton’s 4.09 FIP is just behind the 4.00 FIP posted by a certain Mets pitcher who we’ll call Johan S. … And Eaton's FIP is better than the Mets John Maine (4.71), the much-vaunted pitcher who Mets fans acted like I was crazy for believing wasn't the Second Coming.
What about DIPS, you ask? Well, Eaton's DIPS is a little worse: 4.35. Still, that's better than his real ERA and takes park factors into account. Additionally, Eaton's DIPS is better than Oliver Perez (4.38), Maine (4.86), Jamie Moyer (4.82) and the Giants Matt Cain (4.63).
It is a little too soon to hand out the Cy Young award to Eaton, however. He needs to improve his strikeout and walk ratios before he can be called out of the woods. His K/BB ratio this season is 1.46, barely improved over last season.
The inability to get strikeouts is where Eaton has struggled over the last few seasons. In Eaton’s first six seasons with the Padres his strikeouts per nine innings rate was 6.00 or better:
K/9:
2000: 6.00
2001: 8.41
2002: 6.75
2003: 7.18
2004: 6.91
2005: 7.00
Since then he’s been sub-6.00:
K/9:
2006 (Rangers): 5.95
2007 (Phillies): 5.40
2008 (Phillies): 5.34
He needs to improve that, and soon.
Here’s a little-known fact about Adam Eaton: there probably isn’t a pitcher in baseball tougher to get a steal off of. In 2007 fifteen baserunners tried to steal a base off Eaton. Nine failed, a success rate of just 40%. The previous season, in Texas, two in seven were successful. So far this season: one successful steal in three tries.
I had almost forgotten, but the Phillies begin a big four-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight in the desert of Arizona, the start of a week-long roadtrip that will take the Phillies to the Bay Area to play the Giants again. Cole Hamels and Tim Lincecum are set to rematch Friday Night after last night’s 6-5 Phillies win netted a no-decision for both pitchers.
I would consider a 2-2 split of the Phillies – Diamondbacks series to be a major victory for the Phillies. The 21-10 D-Backs are clearly the best team in baseball right now and boast the best pitching staff in the majors. How good is the D-Backs 1-2 punch of Brandon Webb (7-0, 2.49 ERA, 3.00 DIPS) and Dan Haren (4-1, 3.12 ERA, 3.34 DIPS)? Fortunately for the Phillies, they miss Haren and have to face just Webb in this series. Adam Eaton squares off with the Big Unit (1-1, 4.79 ERA, 3.84 DIPS) tomorrow night. The D-Backs are second in the N.L. in runs scored and lead the N.L. in slugging percentage and triples. Not surprisingly, their team ERA is also best in the majors. They have a number of talented players who are really producing well and they rely on no one person to be successful. While the D-Backs have hit 36 home runs, nobody has hit more than 7. They are balanced and deep. Young, fast, aggressive, the D-Backs are built to be a powerhouse for a long time to come. This will be a tough series for the Phillies to win. If I had to bet on which game the phillies could win, I’d bet on tonight’s Jamie Moyer vs. Max Scherzer matchup.
Tomorrow: I’ll talk a little about last night’s game and a little about the Reading Phillies Jeremy Slayden.
Labels: Blackley, Durbin, Eaton, Hamels, Moyer, Pitching, Rotation
Monday, March 03, 2008
Spring Baseball
Spring Training is under way and the Phillies are 2-2 with a 7-7 tie with the Yankees thrown into the mix. Here are some preliminary observations …
Pitching … Thus far the Phillies team ERA sits at a hefty 6.25. The team has tossed 36 innings and surrendered 25 earned runs (I’m not including the numbers from yesterday’s tie in the mix). They’ve surrendered 2.00 home runs per nine innings, 4.50 walks per nine innings and 6.50 strikeouts per nine innings and have a 1.44 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Two pitching performances have stood out as being outstanding:
Jamie Moyer, the ageless wonder, hurled three innings on the first day of spring training and surrendered just one hit, didn’t allow a run, a home run or a walk and struck-out three hitters. Not bad.
Travis Blackley, the Phillies Rule 5 Draftee fighting for a roster spot, tossed three shut-out innings as well, allowing just on hit, no walks or home runs, and struck-out two hitters. This performance thus far strongly suggests that Blackley is in the running to make the Phillies Opening Day roster and stay with the team in 2008.
Carlos Carrasco, the Phillies highly-touted rookie, tossed three innings and struck-out three, allowing just three hits and no runs against the Yankees. Nice job.
Performances that ought to worry Phillies fans … Temporary closer Tom Gordon has pitched two-thirds of an inning and allowed two runs on two hits and a walk … In two innings of work, Adam Eaton surrendered five hits (one a home run) and two runs.
As yet there isn’t a whole lot of data to extract positive clues from, but the preliminary outcomes suggest that the Phillies pitching is going to have some weak points.
Over on the offensive side, many Phillies hitters are off to big starts. Carlos Ruiz is hitting .667 on four-of-six at the plate with two doubles and an RBI. Pedro Feliz is hitting .571 on four-of-seven hitting with two doubles and an RBI. Ryan Howard is four-for-ten with two doubles and a home run and three RBI, while Chase Utley is three-for-eight with three doubles and two RBI.
Some Phillies are struggling – Pat Burrell is one-for-six and Jimmy Rollins is one-for-seven – but these are traditionally slow-starting hitters. Wes Helms – zero-for-six – has lost his position as the third baseman and won’t mount much of an argument to reclaim it with this spring performance.
Quick Eagles discussion … The Birds have made some nice moves in free agency, inking Chris Clemons and Assante Samuel to deals to strengthen the defensive unit. Samuel is a real shut-down corner who will strengthen the Eagles pass-rush by locking down wideouts. I hope the Eagles resist the temptation to deal Lito Shepard and keep him and Sheldon Brown to play next to Samuel. Having three Pro Bowl quality cornerbacks can’t hurt in a division where you play Plaxico Burress and T.O., can it? Clemons is a little under-sized and may not be able to fight through the rigors on the NFL regular season as a starter, but the team seemed committed to a rotation-style strategy on the defensive line … I’ve been very impressed by the splash that the Cleveland Browns have made this off-season, keeping Derek Anderson and Jamal Lewis, their quarterback and running back respectively, and acquiring game-breaking wideout Donte Stallworth, the former Eagle. The Eagles – Browns game this year is going to be a big, big battle.
(2) comments
Pitching … Thus far the Phillies team ERA sits at a hefty 6.25. The team has tossed 36 innings and surrendered 25 earned runs (I’m not including the numbers from yesterday’s tie in the mix). They’ve surrendered 2.00 home runs per nine innings, 4.50 walks per nine innings and 6.50 strikeouts per nine innings and have a 1.44 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Two pitching performances have stood out as being outstanding:
Jamie Moyer, the ageless wonder, hurled three innings on the first day of spring training and surrendered just one hit, didn’t allow a run, a home run or a walk and struck-out three hitters. Not bad.
Travis Blackley, the Phillies Rule 5 Draftee fighting for a roster spot, tossed three shut-out innings as well, allowing just on hit, no walks or home runs, and struck-out two hitters. This performance thus far strongly suggests that Blackley is in the running to make the Phillies Opening Day roster and stay with the team in 2008.
Carlos Carrasco, the Phillies highly-touted rookie, tossed three innings and struck-out three, allowing just three hits and no runs against the Yankees. Nice job.
Performances that ought to worry Phillies fans … Temporary closer Tom Gordon has pitched two-thirds of an inning and allowed two runs on two hits and a walk … In two innings of work, Adam Eaton surrendered five hits (one a home run) and two runs.
As yet there isn’t a whole lot of data to extract positive clues from, but the preliminary outcomes suggest that the Phillies pitching is going to have some weak points.
Over on the offensive side, many Phillies hitters are off to big starts. Carlos Ruiz is hitting .667 on four-of-six at the plate with two doubles and an RBI. Pedro Feliz is hitting .571 on four-of-seven hitting with two doubles and an RBI. Ryan Howard is four-for-ten with two doubles and a home run and three RBI, while Chase Utley is three-for-eight with three doubles and two RBI.
Some Phillies are struggling – Pat Burrell is one-for-six and Jimmy Rollins is one-for-seven – but these are traditionally slow-starting hitters. Wes Helms – zero-for-six – has lost his position as the third baseman and won’t mount much of an argument to reclaim it with this spring performance.
Quick Eagles discussion … The Birds have made some nice moves in free agency, inking Chris Clemons and Assante Samuel to deals to strengthen the defensive unit. Samuel is a real shut-down corner who will strengthen the Eagles pass-rush by locking down wideouts. I hope the Eagles resist the temptation to deal Lito Shepard and keep him and Sheldon Brown to play next to Samuel. Having three Pro Bowl quality cornerbacks can’t hurt in a division where you play Plaxico Burress and T.O., can it? Clemons is a little under-sized and may not be able to fight through the rigors on the NFL regular season as a starter, but the team seemed committed to a rotation-style strategy on the defensive line … I’ve been very impressed by the splash that the Cleveland Browns have made this off-season, keeping Derek Anderson and Jamal Lewis, their quarterback and running back respectively, and acquiring game-breaking wideout Donte Stallworth, the former Eagle. The Eagles – Browns game this year is going to be a big, big battle.
Labels: Batting, Blackley, Burrell, Carrasco, Gordon, Helms, Howard, Moyer, Pitching, Rollins, Spring Training, State of the Phillies
Thursday, February 07, 2008
Number Five
Spring Training is almost upon us Phillies fans! Hard to believe that the preliminary stages of the 2008 season are just days away.
With the Mets acqusition of Johan Santana and the Braves revamped rotation, I've been mulling over pitchers and how important they'll be to the Phillies in 2008. The Phillies 2008 rotation looks like this, I think:
1. Cole Hamels
2. Brett Myers
3. Jamie Moyer
4. Kyle Kendrick
5. ?
Hamels and Myers are poised to be the Phillies primary starters (give Hamels the edge to start Opening Day), while Jamie Moyer will undoubtedly return for his 2,000th baseball season, still tossing sub-80 mph fastballs and changeups, the solid #3 guy in the rotation (although I think the Phillies might be better off trying to start Moyer behind Hamels, as they make a nice ying-yang combo for hitters to transition from). Kendrick seems to have earned a spot as the #4 starter with his solid (10-4, 3.87 ERA) season last year. So the question is: who will be the #5 starter?
Last year’s #5 starter, Adam Eaton, struggled … a lot. While Eaton’s 10-10 record was pretty respectable, his 6.29 ERA was not. So bad was Adam Eaton’s season that the Phillies banished him from the roster for the National League Divisional Series against the Rockies. Eaton’s immense salary – he’s in the second year of a three year, $21+ million dollar contract – guarantees that he’s going to figure into the Phillies plans for 2008. Whether that is as a starting pitcher or as a reliever, a role the Phillies envisioned for Jon Lieber last season when he was unseated by Eaton as a starter, remains to be seen.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
No doubt 2007 was a season that Adam Eaton wants to forget … Eaton surrendered 71 walks and 30 home runs in just 161 & two-thirds of an inning pitched, while striking out just 97 batters. The nearly 1:1 ratio of walks to strikeouts (actually 1.36-to-1) is very atypical of Eaton, although his K/BB ratio has been trending downwards over the years: 2.94 in 2004, 2.27 in 2005, and 1.79 in 2006. Part of Eaton’s problem was that he gave up thirty home runs … incidentally, the “Citizens Bank Ballpark” explanation doesn’t really help explain why Eaton gave up so many dingers in ’07: his 1.88 HR/9 rate at home was enormous, but his 1.48 HR/9 rate on the road wasn’t much better … which I think led Eaton into making bad pitches. A pitcher so used to hurling at Petco (in 2004 and 2005) might need some time to adjust.
The 2008 Bill James Handbook says that Eaton will do better in ’08: 8-10, 4.89 ERA (and 1.29 HR/9, 3.31 BB/9 and 6.46 K/9). Tangotiger’s Marcels system locks Eaton in at 10-8 with a 5.39 ERA (and 1.40 HR/9, 3.6 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9) in 2008.
But Eaton isn’t the only candidate. There are two others, Chad Durbin and Travis Blackley. I want to talk about Blackley, the Phillies Rule 5 draftee from the San Francisco Giants. Blackley has just thirty-four innings of major league experience. He threw just eight and two-thirds of an inning for the Giants last season before being exposed in the Rule 5 draft. Blackley’s scant MLB experience is too small of a sample to look at, so we’ll look at what Blackley did with the Giants Triple-A franchise in Fresno, California, and with the Seattle Mariners Double-A franchise in Tacoma, Washington.
In San Antonio in the Texas League in 2006, Blackley threw 144 innings and finished with a 8-11 record and a 4.06 ERA. Defense or park effects helped Blackley’s numbers a little here, however, because his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA was somewhat higher: 4.68 … I mention park effects because it seems like San Antonio was the most pitcher-friendly park in the Texas League, and Fresno in the Pacific Coast League (PCL) wasn’t too far behind … Blackley’s numbers were quite good: 6.25 K/9, 2.81 BB/9, 1.13 HR/9. He seemed to have good control. After being traded to the Giants, Blackley went into their farm system and arrived in Fresno. His performance left something to be desired: 10-8, with a 4.66 ERA. Blackley’s FIP was an Adam Eaton-esque 5.08, and his strikeout and walk rates were worse than the PCL averages:
Blackley / PCL
BB/9: 3.77 / 3.45
K/9: 6.71 / 7.03
So will Blackley unseat Eaton? The numbers don’t support it, but if the Phillies want to develop him they’ll have to leave him on their roster in 2008 or else ship him back to the Giants. My gut tells me that Blackley will find his way into the Phillies bullpen.
Finally, we come to Chad Durbin. Durbin, who played on the Detroit Tigers American League-pennant winning squad in 2006, found his way onto the Phillies roster this off-season and is trying to unseat Eaton. Durbin’s numbers (8-7, 4.72 ERA, 4.65 K/9, 3.00 BB/9 and 1.48 HR/9), don’t exactly support him either. As bad as Eaton’s 5.93 FIP was in 2007, Durbin’s wasn’t much better: 5.73!
Marcels rates Durbin at 6-6 with a 4.67 ERA in 2008. Bill James rated Durbin at 4-6, 5.00 ERA and 1.4 HR/9, 3.4 BB/9, 6.0 K/9.
Incidentially, Bill James had no prediction for Blackley because he didn't toss many MLB innings.
I think Eaton has the edge in this race for two reasons:
1. The Phillies have already invested significant amounts of money into Eaton and it would be humiliating to the team to see Eaton, their big free agent in 2007, riding the pine while a guy making the MLB minimum is starting in his place.
2. It isn't obvious to me that Blackley or Durbin would be better choices. Sure, Eaton got shelled, but he's put up good numbers in the past and could do so again.
I'd like to see Blackley be given the shot, but the smart money here is on Adam Eaton.
(3) comments
With the Mets acqusition of Johan Santana and the Braves revamped rotation, I've been mulling over pitchers and how important they'll be to the Phillies in 2008. The Phillies 2008 rotation looks like this, I think:
1. Cole Hamels
2. Brett Myers
3. Jamie Moyer
4. Kyle Kendrick
5. ?
Hamels and Myers are poised to be the Phillies primary starters (give Hamels the edge to start Opening Day), while Jamie Moyer will undoubtedly return for his 2,000th baseball season, still tossing sub-80 mph fastballs and changeups, the solid #3 guy in the rotation (although I think the Phillies might be better off trying to start Moyer behind Hamels, as they make a nice ying-yang combo for hitters to transition from). Kendrick seems to have earned a spot as the #4 starter with his solid (10-4, 3.87 ERA) season last year. So the question is: who will be the #5 starter?
Last year’s #5 starter, Adam Eaton, struggled … a lot. While Eaton’s 10-10 record was pretty respectable, his 6.29 ERA was not. So bad was Adam Eaton’s season that the Phillies banished him from the roster for the National League Divisional Series against the Rockies. Eaton’s immense salary – he’s in the second year of a three year, $21+ million dollar contract – guarantees that he’s going to figure into the Phillies plans for 2008. Whether that is as a starting pitcher or as a reliever, a role the Phillies envisioned for Jon Lieber last season when he was unseated by Eaton as a starter, remains to be seen.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
No doubt 2007 was a season that Adam Eaton wants to forget … Eaton surrendered 71 walks and 30 home runs in just 161 & two-thirds of an inning pitched, while striking out just 97 batters. The nearly 1:1 ratio of walks to strikeouts (actually 1.36-to-1) is very atypical of Eaton, although his K/BB ratio has been trending downwards over the years: 2.94 in 2004, 2.27 in 2005, and 1.79 in 2006. Part of Eaton’s problem was that he gave up thirty home runs … incidentally, the “Citizens Bank Ballpark” explanation doesn’t really help explain why Eaton gave up so many dingers in ’07: his 1.88 HR/9 rate at home was enormous, but his 1.48 HR/9 rate on the road wasn’t much better … which I think led Eaton into making bad pitches. A pitcher so used to hurling at Petco (in 2004 and 2005) might need some time to adjust.
The 2008 Bill James Handbook says that Eaton will do better in ’08: 8-10, 4.89 ERA (and 1.29 HR/9, 3.31 BB/9 and 6.46 K/9). Tangotiger’s Marcels system locks Eaton in at 10-8 with a 5.39 ERA (and 1.40 HR/9, 3.6 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9) in 2008.
But Eaton isn’t the only candidate. There are two others, Chad Durbin and Travis Blackley. I want to talk about Blackley, the Phillies Rule 5 draftee from the San Francisco Giants. Blackley has just thirty-four innings of major league experience. He threw just eight and two-thirds of an inning for the Giants last season before being exposed in the Rule 5 draft. Blackley’s scant MLB experience is too small of a sample to look at, so we’ll look at what Blackley did with the Giants Triple-A franchise in Fresno, California, and with the Seattle Mariners Double-A franchise in Tacoma, Washington.
In San Antonio in the Texas League in 2006, Blackley threw 144 innings and finished with a 8-11 record and a 4.06 ERA. Defense or park effects helped Blackley’s numbers a little here, however, because his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA was somewhat higher: 4.68 … I mention park effects because it seems like San Antonio was the most pitcher-friendly park in the Texas League, and Fresno in the Pacific Coast League (PCL) wasn’t too far behind … Blackley’s numbers were quite good: 6.25 K/9, 2.81 BB/9, 1.13 HR/9. He seemed to have good control. After being traded to the Giants, Blackley went into their farm system and arrived in Fresno. His performance left something to be desired: 10-8, with a 4.66 ERA. Blackley’s FIP was an Adam Eaton-esque 5.08, and his strikeout and walk rates were worse than the PCL averages:
Blackley / PCL
BB/9: 3.77 / 3.45
K/9: 6.71 / 7.03
So will Blackley unseat Eaton? The numbers don’t support it, but if the Phillies want to develop him they’ll have to leave him on their roster in 2008 or else ship him back to the Giants. My gut tells me that Blackley will find his way into the Phillies bullpen.
Finally, we come to Chad Durbin. Durbin, who played on the Detroit Tigers American League-pennant winning squad in 2006, found his way onto the Phillies roster this off-season and is trying to unseat Eaton. Durbin’s numbers (8-7, 4.72 ERA, 4.65 K/9, 3.00 BB/9 and 1.48 HR/9), don’t exactly support him either. As bad as Eaton’s 5.93 FIP was in 2007, Durbin’s wasn’t much better: 5.73!
Marcels rates Durbin at 6-6 with a 4.67 ERA in 2008. Bill James rated Durbin at 4-6, 5.00 ERA and 1.4 HR/9, 3.4 BB/9, 6.0 K/9.
Incidentially, Bill James had no prediction for Blackley because he didn't toss many MLB innings.
I think Eaton has the edge in this race for two reasons:
1. The Phillies have already invested significant amounts of money into Eaton and it would be humiliating to the team to see Eaton, their big free agent in 2007, riding the pine while a guy making the MLB minimum is starting in his place.
2. It isn't obvious to me that Blackley or Durbin would be better choices. Sure, Eaton got shelled, but he's put up good numbers in the past and could do so again.
I'd like to see Blackley be given the shot, but the smart money here is on Adam Eaton.
Labels: Blackley, Eaton, Pitching, Rotation
