Michael/Male/26-30. Lives in United States/Pennsylvania/Wexford/Christopher Wren, speaks English. Spends 20% of daytime online. Uses a Fast (128k-512k) connection. And likes baseball /politics.
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United States, Pennsylvania, Wexford, Christopher Wren, English, Michael, Male, 26-30, baseball , politics.

Wednesday, September 19, 2007


Is 2007 shaping up to be the anti-1964 for the Phillies. Too far back, too far out of it, the Phillies have begun to climb into the playoff race. I checked out Baseball Prospectus’ playoff odds this morning and discovered that the Phillies now stand a 42% of making the playoffs, an improvement over just a few days ago.

Playoff Odds:
Mets: 95.4%
D-Backs: 76.3%
Cubs: 71.4%
Padres: 69.9%
Phillies: 42.2%
Brewers: 28.8%
Dodgers: 13.2%
Rockies: 1.8%

At this juncture the Phillies are fighting a two-pronged offensive, trying to catch the Mets for the N.L. East, and trying to catch the Padres / D-Backs for the wildcard. As I watch this playoff race unfold, I wonder if the Diamondbacks might end up being the team that the Phillies are pitted against for the wildcard. The Padres play a soft schedule down the stretch and the D-backs are forced to match up with the Dodgers and Rockies. I could see the end of the season come down to the D-Backs and the Rockies series on September 28-30.

Anyway, this playoff run has been exceptional. The Phillies are currently riding a six game winning streak and have survived major pitching woes these last few days, from a bad return start yesterday from Cole Hamels (3 IP, 3 Runs) to a melt-down by the Phillies bullpen Monday night. Meanwhile, the Mets have dropped five consecutive games and look like a sinking ship. Can the Phillies luck continue?

A few odds ‘n ends bits of information … The Phillies lead the N.L. in runs scored in September with 97 runs, three more than the Brewers … The Phillies are second in stolen bases with 20, 2 fewer than the Dodgers. Impressively, the Phillies have been caught just once this month, a 95% success rate … the Phillies, conversely are 13 th in ERA. This team continues to win with offense, offense and offense.

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Good stuff. 42.2% is almost as good as flipping a coin, much better than rolling the dice.
If we miss the playoffs, and once again we hear people within the organization say things like "Oh, we were so close!" or "We'll keep at it and try and replicate this next year!" To that I say: HOGWASH. This team had several games where they should have flat out closed the door, or win the series. The Atlanta game comes to mind, the two games against the Pirates come to mind, or even our pitiful start (AGAIN) -- if we don't make the playoffs, we were not OH so close, we were typical Phillies baseball.
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