A CITIZEN'S BLOG

Today’s a Friday and I haven’t gotten a chance to put together a discussion of the Phillies other three minor league teams yet. I’m also working on my Season in Review series right now, so there are a lot of logs in the fire.

So far the following Phillies have declared Free Agency:

Kyle Lohse
Freddy Garcia
Rod Barajas
J.C. Romero
Antonio Alfonseca
Jose Mesa
Abraham Nunez
Aaron Rowand
Jon Lieber

Obviously the Phillies have no interest in re-signing Nunez and Barajas since they declined their options in both players. Garcia is out of the Phillies price range, so he’s a goner, and Mesa, Alfonseca and Lieber are players whom the Phillies likely regard as too old and possessing declining skills. There are only three players who the Phillies would be interested in re-signing. Lohse, Romero and Rowand.

Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP

Kyle Lohse – I believe Scott Boras is Lohse’s agent, so the chances of the Phillies re-signing Lohse is slim-to-none. A talented pitcher on a market which is nearly devoid of quality pitching, Boras knows he’ll be able to command a king’s ransom for Lohse’s services. Expect Boras to leverage Lohse solid 2007 campaign (9-12, 4.62 ERA as a Red and Phillie) into big bucks. $10 million plus is not outside the realm of possibility here.

Chances of re-signing with the Phillies: 5%.

J.C. Romero – Here is a player the Phillies would dearly love to keep. I’m actually not that impressed by Romero’s stats, however. As a Phillie he gave up 25 walks in 36 innings of work, which means he’d give up 6.25 walks per nine innings pitched. Romero pitched waaaay worse than his 1.24 ERA as a Phillie suggests. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA is 3.98, over three times higher than his official ERA. Romero has consistently allowed a lot of walks throughout his career in the major leagues. As a Minnesota Twin in 2004 and 2005 he gave up 4.6 BB/9 and 5.7 BB/9 respectively, and as an Anaheim Angel in 2006 he gave up 4.8 BB/9. I know that the Phillies want to bring him back, but I am unimpressed.

Romero made 1.6 million in 2007 and while I think that the chances of bringing him back are good, the scarcity of quality pitching might drive Romero’s asking price too high for the Phillies blood.

Chances of re-signing with the Phillies: 20%.

Aaron Rowand – the Phillies want to bring Rowand back, but it isn’t going to happen. The Phillies won’t, after the Pat Burrell experience, ink a deal longer than three or four years, while Rowand appears fixed on five or six, and they won’t go higher than $10 million a year, while Rowand looks like he wants to go into the $12-14 million dollar range. Expect the Phillies to go through the motions of re-signing Rowand, but they have cheaper options on their roster who would do the job well and they want to commit some of that money to a long-term deal for Ryan Howard and securing more pitching this off-season. Don’t be surprised to see Shane Victorino or Michael Bourn manning centerfield in 2008.

Chances of re-signing with the Phillies: 1%.

Have a nice weekend!

Labels: Free Agency, Lohse, Pitching, Romero, Rowand

What a horrible week for Phillies baseball. After Sunday ended with the Phillies triumph over the Mets for the N.L. East crown, nothing went right for the Phillies.

First, the San Diego Padres blew a lead to the Colorado Rockies and sent to the Rockies to the playoffs as the N.L. wildcard. The Rockies had concluded their season with victories in 14 of 15 games. They were the only team in baseball playing with more confidence and more momentum than the Phillies.

Then the Phillies dropped both of the opening games at home, before going onto Colorado and dropping the final game of the series 2-1 Saturday Night (late, I might add, I stayed up until 12:30 AM to watch it) in the Mile-High City. The quick exit tarnished the Phillies September run and has left a sour taste in the mouths of Phillies phandom.

Let’s go back and give a few reasons why the Phillies lost in the first place. Good pitching always defeats good hitting and vice versa, said Yogi Berra. Good pitching was the difference here. The Rockies managed to hold the Phillies to eight runs and a .274 OBP, about eighty points under the Phillies season average. The Phillies .366 slugging percentage was ninety-two points lower. The Phillies OPS in the series was just .640, compared to their .812 in the regular season.

More stats of note: in their 27 innings of work, the Rockies struck-out 26 Phillies and issued 12 walks.

As I poured through the numbers it became apparent that the Phillies never got going against the Rockies hitters. They hit poorly in the clutch: 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position (.091 BA/RISP), but part of that was that the Phillies rarely had runners in scoring position. Aside from their five home runs, there were just two Phillies hits for extra-bases: a triple of Jimmy Rollins and a double by Carlos Ruiz. The Phillies also only stole three bases.

Every Phillies hitter struggled. Aside from hitting solo home runs in Game One, Aaron Rowand and Pat Burrell were virtually automatic outs. Rowand was 1-for-12 and Burrell was 2-for-11. Throw out those home runs they hit, and the two went 1-for-21 with no runs, no RBI and seven strike-outs.

Chase Utley was 2-for-11 with five strikeouts. Ryan Howard was 3-for-12 with seven strikeouts. The supporting cast wasn’t a help either: Wes Helms was 0-for-2, Jayson Werth was 0-for-3, and Greg Dobbs was 0-for-3. Jimmy Rollins went 2-for-11, but he also had a triple, a home run, hit four RBI, had a stolen base and drew two walks. Out of all of the Phillies, he played the best.

The Phillies pitchers deserve some of the blame for the debacle, but you have to acknowledge that Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer pitched well. Moyer, in particular, was a surprise since he hadn’t beaten the Rockies in his career, his start in Denver this season had gone so poorly, and his soft-tossing style seemed to promise hits sailing into the outfield. Yet Jamie Moyer tried to keep the Phillies in the series with a brilliant performance in Game Three, allowing just one run on five hits and two walks in six innings of work.

Cole Hamels pitched well in Game One, allowing just three runs in six and two-thirds of an inning of work, tagging seven strikeouts and allowing just three hits and four walks. He seemed in control of the game and had he gotten some run support from his brethren, he might have won Game One for the Phillies.

The rest of the Phillies pitching staff is another story entirely. Kyle Kendrick pitched poorly in Game Two and Kyle Lohse allowed the pivotal home run in Game Two that effectively sank the Phillies chances in the series. J.C. Romero failed the Phillies in the eighth inning Saturday Night. Jose Mesa’s ERA in the series was 81.00. ‘Nuff said.

Simply put, the Phillies couldn’t hold a candle to the Rockies pitching staff, which is vastly under-rated and under-appreciated. As I watched the Rockies on Saturday Night, I thought: poor Diamondbacks. They don’t have a chance. The Rockies pitching staff is very good and was the real difference-maker. If they pitch this well against the D-backs more punch-less offense, I don’t see how the Rockies could lose.

What of Charlie Manuel? He certainly made mistakes in the series. His decision in Game Three to take out Tom Gordon and put J.C. Romero in can be second-guessed. His decision in Game Two to intentionally walk Yorvit Torrealba was baffling and came back to bite the Phillies when Seth Smith hit an infield single to load the bases, then Manuel brought in Lohse to surrender the pivotal grand slam to Kaz Matsui. The walk to Torrealba looms large as a blunder, but allowing Romero to pitch while saving Brett Myers for the ninth-inning and extra-innings seemed like a reasonable strategy in Game Three, and bringing in Lohse to pitch to Matsui seemed like a good move given that Kendrick had thrown a number of pitches by that juncture. I don’t think you can pin this loss in the series on Charlie Manuel. That would be unfair.

The odd thing I noticed in the pages of the Philadelphia Inquirer was how upbeat the coverage of the Phillies was. Despite the tragic sweep, the people who cover this team seem to be optimistic about its future. E.g., check out Jim Salisbury's take. It’s players seem to be optimistic. The fans need to be too. This is only the beginning of the Phillies run, not the end.

In summing up, let me just comment on the stunning fact that three of the four divisional series were sweeps: the Rockies over the Phillies, the Diamondbacks over the Cubs, the Red Sox over the Angels. I’d like to add that I got every one of those series wrong. The Cubs are a much stronger team on paper than the Diamondbacks and I was certain they’d take the series, especially with the momentum they’ve been playing with. Lou Pinella’s decision to pull Carlos Zambrano in Game One of their series looks to be the thread that unwound the Cubs tapestry. Burdened by decades of history and expectations, they folded quietly. Wait ‘til next year.

Over in the American League, I was stunned by how the Red Sox pitching utterly dominated the Angels. I really thought that the Angels would have an edge here, but they did not. Josh Beckett’s nine-inning, four-hit, eight-strikeout masterpiece in Game One set the tone. Meanwhile, the Yankees kept alive, but I think the Indians will win the series regardless. That one will go to five games.

Alright, so here is the posting schedule for the week coming up:

Tuesday: Rockies – Diamondbacks Analysis
Wednesday: Bring Back Charlie Manuel?
Thursday: Speed & the Phillies in 2007
Friday: The Blueprint for 2008

Labels: Dobbs, Gordon, Hamels, Helms, Howard, Kenderick, Lohse, Managing, Mesa, Playoffs, Power-Hitting, Rollins, Romero, Rowand, Utley, Werth

If you look at the world in a glass half-full manner, you could point out that Game Two of the NLDS represented a certain improvement for the Phillies: after going 4-for-29 (.138 BA) with two runs against the Rockies pitchers in Game One, the Phillies managed to score five runs and 9-for-35 (.257 BA). Ryan Howard hit a home run and Jimmy Rollins had a home run, a triple and four RBI … But the Phillies glass is not half-full. It’s nearly dry.

Even for an optimist like myself there really is no way to spin yesterday’s 10-5 loss to the Colorado Rockies as anything but a disaster. Losing the first two games in a best-of-five series at home? The Phillies have dug themselves a hole that they aren’t likely to climb out of.

The culprit last night was the Phillies Achilles Heel, their pitching. Kyle Kendrick got rocked, allowing five hits, two walks and five runs while getting a mere two strikeouts in just three and two-thirds of an inning of work. I had more confidence in Kendrick than was warranted by his pedestrian stats. While there is no disgrace in surrendering home runs to Matt Holliday and Troy Tulowitzki, Kendrick is also culpable for Kazuo Matsui’s devastating grand slam off Kyle Lohse in the fourth inning that might end up being the nail that sealed the Phillies fate. The massive blast from a player who hit four home runs all season shattered the Phillies for the rest of the game. Matsui’s triple in the sixth inning pretty much put the game out of reach for the Phillies.

The Rockies pitching, so good in Game One, was just good enough to win Game Two. They gave the Phillies chances to get back into the game – specifically I turn my eye to the Phillies bases-loaded situation in the bottom of the eighth inning when Carlos Ruiz grounded into an inning-ending 5-3 ground-out to leave the score at 10-5 – but they were better than the Phillies battered pitchers. Kendrick got rocked, Lohse surrendered the devastating grand slam, and Jose Mesa got hammered for another three runs. It was a horrifying game for the Phillies, who can ill-afford another performance like this from their hurlers.

So let’s look forward to Game Three on Saturday at 9:37 PM Eastern time in Denver, Colorado. Jamie Moyer vs. Ubaldo Jimenez.

The numbers are against the Phillies in Game Three. Jamie Moyer is 0-4 with a 5.54 ERA in his career against the Rockies. In his only start this season against the Rockies, in Colorado on July 7th, Moyer went five and one-third innings and gave up eight hits, three walks and five runs, while getting just two strikeouts on his way to losing 6-3 to the Rockies. Let’s hope history doesn’t repeat itself.

History isn’t entirely out of the Phillies reach. In the modern wildcard era four teams have rallied from 0-2 deficits to come back and win their series. It hasn’t happened, however, since 2003:

1995: Seattle Mariners dropped their first two games to the New York Yankees and rallied to win the series.

1999: The Cleveland Indians blew out the Boston Red Sox 11-1 in Game Two to take a 2-0 lead in the ALDS, then watched as the Red Sox won the next three games 9-3, 23-7 and 12-8 in an explosion of offense after scoring just three runs in the first two games.

2001: The Oakland A’s took the first two games of the ALDS in New York 5-3 and 2-0. This is the series that the Phillies must hope to emulate, because the Yankees went on to win games three and four 1-0 and 9-2 in Oakland, then they won the fifth game in New York 5-3.

2003: Once more, the A’s took a 2-0 lead in the ALDS, having won game one 5-4 in dramatic fashion when catcher Ramon Hernandez bunted to score Eric Chavez in the bottom of the twelfth inning. The Red Sox took the next two games in Fenway and then eked out a 4-3 win in Oakland to face the Yankees in the ALCS.

The ’01 A’s – Yankees series gives the Phillies the best hope to emulate. A team has lost both of the opening games at home and rallied to win the road games. The key is going to be a fast start for Game Three. The Phillies have to jump on Jimenez in the first inning and give Jamie Moyer a cushion.

Now the series is going to shift to Coors Field in Denver. Coors is unlike any other ballpark in baseball.

The idea that Coors Field is a haven for home run hitters is something of a misnomer that needs to be corrected. If you look at the 2006 Park Factor numbers for Coors Field, the park’s Home Run Factor was 114, in other words: a team / player was 14% more likely to hit a home run at Coors Field than in a neutral ballpark. That ranked Coors Field just seventh amongst sixteen National League ballparks. Not so bad. Once you look at batting average park factor numbers, the conclusions shift more dramatically: Coors rates a 111, which is tops in the National League. Run Factor was 115, also tops in the N.L.

When you looked at the numbers spread for 2004 – 2006, there was an event bigger change: Coors park factor was 115 for batting average, and 128 for runs scored, which was 10 and 18 points higher, respectively, than the other N.L. parks. Coors Home Run park factor was just 112, ranking them sixth of sixteen N.L. parks.

The thin air in Denver results in the ball carrying a great distance through the air, faster and longer than it would closer to sea level. As noted in Baseball Between the Numbers chapter on Coors Field (Chapter 8.2: “How Much Does Coors Field Really Matter?”), a ball hit in Denver will travel 300 feet about 0.3 seconds faster than it would in Boston, and thus cut down on the range of an outfielder by eight or nine feet. This won’t pose an issue for Shane Victorino or Aaron Rowand, but in the late innings of a game, if the Phillies are leading and don’t need Pat Burrell’s bat, Charlie Manuel should replace Burrell with a defensive replacement like Chris Roberson. To leave Burrell in the bottom of the ninth of a one-run Phillies lead would be criminal.

This also suggests that Jamie Moyer is probably the worst pitcher to have the ball for the Phillies for Game Three. Of the Phillies four starting pitchers he is the most fly-ball oriented:

G/F ratio:
Moyer: 1.08
Hamels: 1.13
Lohse: 1.27
Kendrick: 1.55

Don’t be surprised if Moyer doesn’t make it out of the first inning.

The pressure is going to be on Charlie Manuel to win the next three games. I thought it might be interesting to compare and contrast Manuel and Clint Hurdle, the Rockies skipper. The two have contrasting styles, though their philosophies are evolving: Hurdle has embraced the small-ball approach to baseball, while Manuel, an American League manager, is moving from “Moneyball” to a hybrid approach. Here are some differences between the two taken from last season's Bill James Baseball Handbook:

Manuel / Hurdle (2006)
SBA: 117 / 135
SacA: 79 / 155
DS: 49 / 22
PR: 42 / 17
RM: 69 / 109

SBA: Stolen Bases Attempted; SacA: Sacrifice Bunts Attempted; DS: Defensive Substitutions; PR: Pinch-Runners; RM: Runners Moving.

A few definite traits emerge in each manager: Hurdle’s Rockies led the N.L. in sacrifice bunts attempted. This is a weapon Hurdle likes to employ more and more as a manager: he attempted 44 in 2002, when he managed 140 games as the Rockies skipper, then he tried 82 in 2003, 126 in 2004, 114 in 2005 and 155 last season. For a team that plays in a home run hitters haven, these are a lot of attempts to play small ball.

Employing speed seems to be the trend in Hurdle’s managing style: in 2006 he had runners moving 109 times, and in 2005 he did the same 119 times. The previous two seasons he had the runners moving 26 and 52 times. The Phillies tend to stay put with Charlie Manuel: 69 runners moving in 2006, 76 in 2005. I suspect that is changing a little though: the Phillies ran more in 2007 and actually finished second in the N.L. in stolen bases thanks to the presence of guys like Michael Bourn and Shane Victorino in the lineup to supplement Jimmy Rollins.

Hurdle also tends to stick with his starting pitchers longer. Hurdle’s 52 “slow hooks” of his starting pitchers ranked him first in the N.L., alhtough he made a wise decision by yanking the struggling Franklin Morales from the game yesterday. Charlie Manuel’s 43 slow hooks was pretty average.

Hurdle’s 22 defensive substitutions ranked him next-to-last in the N.L., while Manuel’s 49 ranked in the middle. I think this suggests that Manuel won't leave Burrell in the game if he can at all help it.

Prediction: the Phillies 2007 campaign comes to an end with a 7-3 loss to the Rockies. I hate to say it, but the history is pretty much against us.

Labels: Burrell, Hamels, Howard, Kenderick, Lohse, Moyer, Pitching, Playoffs, Predictions, Rollins, Rotation, Victorino

The Phillies tremendous 5-2 victory last evening over the Atlanta Braves could … could … be the critical moment of the 2007 season, as the Mets lost again to the Washington Nationals and saw their lead over the Phillies evaporate to just one game. Alas, the San Diego Padres hammered the Giants 11-3 to maintain their one-game lead over the Phillies. With just four games left, the Phillies sit on the razor’s edge, a mere one game out of first place in the N.L. East and one game out of the wildcard lead.

The game showcased how differently the Phillies and Braves are now, compared to just recently. Gaffes like Chipper Jones’ failure to tag Chase Utley and then his wide throw to first on Aaron Rowand, which allowed Utley to score and set up Ryan Howard and Rowand scoring when Greg Dobbs singled them in later, were mistakes that you’d see the Phillies make. Mental, bone-headed lapses in judgment that would break a game wide-open.

Kyle Lohse also out-pitched Tim Hudson, who actually pitched quite well himself. Lohse handicapped Braves hitters all night long, striking out five and not allowing a walk. Aside from the home run he allowed off the bat of Mark Teixeira, it was a near-perfect performance. Hudson pitched well too, but was utterly done in by Jones error.

Also, the Phillies bullpen entered the game and nailed the Braves coffin shut with three strikeouts. The Braves bullpen, in contrast, allowed the Phillies to tack on an insurance run when Shane Victorino hammered an insurance home run to make the game 5-2 in the seventh inning. The tough pitching, the good fielding, the mistake-free baseball, it is like the Braves have regressed to become the Phillies of old. This year feels different.

I think Phillies phandom knows that too. Watching the game on TV last night, I loved seeing the intensity in the crowd. Citizens Bank Ballpark was rocking. If the Phillies make the playoffs, Citizens Bank is going to be a difficult place for the Cubs or Diamondbacks or Padres to come and win a game or two.

I also saw that the Colorado Rockies have won ten games in a row and would probably be the most unlikely playoff team in decades if they close the gap and take the wildcard. Their last nine wins have been against the Padres and Dodgers too: very good teams they are competing with for the playoffs. These Rockies have been amazing over the last week. Overall, they are 17-7 in September. The Rockies September surge augers well for their chances to compete in 2008.

The Mets, in contrast, have really opened the door for the Phillies with their 4-9 swoon since September 14th. What’s wrong with the Mets? Their pitching has really been shelled of late. They allowed 32 runs to the Nationals in this series. 32 runs!!!! Tonight the Mets have Pedro on the mound. If he collapses, I think the Mets could be ruined mentally.

We shall see.

Labels: Braves, Bullpen, Fielding, Lohse, Mets, Pitching, Rowand, Utley

Another exceedingly rare afternoon post … So the Phillies are just a game and a half out now. Suddenly the powers that be are taking notice of the red pinstripes. Even with this weekend’s series against the Mets, the NL East is out of reach (they’d have to sweep the Mets and get a heck of a lot of luck the rest of the way), but the Phillies are hanging tough in the wildcard race still. With Cole Hamels coming back soon, the Phillies are only getting stronger.

Tonight is the battle of the soft-tossing, 40+ lefty twins, Jamie Moyer and Tom Glavine. I find myself resisting the urge to write too many lauditory posts about Moyer. If I blogged the Mets I’d probably do the same with Glavine. I love walking Moyer work with that fastball that doesn’t qualify even remotely as “fast”, the easy motion to the plate, and watching teams pop the ball up or tap weak grounders back to the mound. I love the confidence and leadership that Moyer has brought to the Phillies and the impact his soft, slow pitches have on games.

I like seeing Jamie Moyer go against the Mets this evening because he might disrupt their timing for the rest of the series. Moyer and Hamels make a much more enjoyable ying-and-yang combination to spring on the opposition. Kyle Lohse goes against Pedro Martinez on Saturday. I am eager to see if the Phillies can get to Pedro, who has looked solid but not overpowering thus far this season. He’s gone just five innings in both of his first two starts, so I am unsure if the Mets will let him pitch or treat him with caution on Saturday. I think, with a big national audience, that the Mets will unleash Pedro and see what he can do against the Phillies.

I worry about the Sunday match-up which sends Adam Eaton to the mound. This is the game where the Mets have the clear edge.

According to Baseball Prospectus’ Playoff Odds report, here are the odds of the following teams making the playoffs:

Mets: 99.8%
Diamondbacks: 90.9%
Cubs: 57.9%
Padres: 51.3%
Brewers: 40.7%
Dodgers: 24.8%
Phillies: 18.9%
Rockies: 11.9%
Braves: 1.9%
Cardinals: 1.5%

The Reds have a sub-1% chance and the Pirates, Astros, Giants, Marlins and Nationals are 100% of the luck according to BP. It is mildly unfair that these weak NL Central teams actually have a chance at making the playoffs when a deserving team like the Phillies or Dodgers or Padres might not make it. The Cubs, for example, are on a pace to win 84 or 85 games, while the Padres are on pace to win 87 games and the Phillies 86 games. C’est la vie.

Over in the A.L., the field is basically set, according to BP:

Red Sox: 99.9%
Angels: 99.8%
Indians: 97.5%
Yankees: 89.5%
Tigers: 12.2%

The Mariners, Blue Jays and Twins all have sub-1% chances (specifically, the Twins have a 0.00017% chance of making the playoffs). By the way, the Tigers are on pace to win 88 games, raising the possibility that the A.L. will feature a team with 90 or more wins that does not make the playoffs, vs. the N.L. with a team that barely has a .500 record. That’s kinda sad.

Here is a modest proposal for the MLB: remember 1994 when the Texas Rangers led the A.L. West at the time of the strike with a less-than-robust 52-62 record? The Rangers were on-pace to win 74 games that season and probably wouldn’t have finished the season with a winning record (they would have had to have gone 30-18 just to finish at 82-80). Baseball ought to have a .500 or better requirement to make the playoffs. If one of the teams wins a division with a sub-.500 record, then there ought to be a second wildcard. That is more fair than taking the chance that a team will win the World Series and suck in the regular season. Otherwise, than geography counts for more than the quality of your play in the regular season.

Labels: Eaton, Hamels, Lohse, Mets, Moyer, Odds 'n Ends, Pitching, Playoffs

Lohse-for-Maloney. I hate this deal. Horrible, horrible, horrible. What was Pat Gillick thinking? This team has a terrible habit of dealing valuable prospects for mid-level pitchers at the trading deadline. It is almost a fetish this team has.

What did the Phillies get? Well, they have a pitcher who is 6-12 with a 4.58 ERA. 1.1 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, and 5.5 K/9 … Decent stats, but nothing to shake a stick at. His FIP ERA is 4.47 … Who exactly are the Phillies going to demote to make room for Lohse? Eaton? Durbin? Hamels and Moyer are out and Kyle kenderick has been pitching very well, so this is a deal that doesn’t exactly make sense – sure the rotation is a little thin at times, but the team had patched things together.

Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP

The Phillies have up an absurdly strong prospect. Maloney was the pitcher of the year in the South Atlantic League in 2006 and has been thoroughly dominant at every level of the minors he’s pitched at. He’ll be a front-line starter with the Reds in 2009 for sure, if not sooner. The Phillies mortgaged a little of their future with this deal. It had better pay off.

Simply put: Kyle Lohse is not the impact pitcher who can alter a pennant race. He’s a talented pitcher with some experience, he’s got some decent stats, but the idea that Lohse justifies the Phillies dealing away one of their prime minor league prospects is absurd.

Not too many other deals so far, aside from Mark Teixeira going to the Braves, who coughed up some talent to get him. Teixeira will help the Braves for sure, but I don’t think that the Braves are getting the impact player they are assuming they are.

Prediction for today: Jermaine Dye to the Yankees, and Eric Gagne to the Tigers.

Labels: Lohse, Minors, Trade Deadline