Friday, February 22, 2008
Thoughts on Ryan Howard
It took me a little while to digest the news of Ryan Howard’s $10 million-dollar arbitration award. The judgment of the arbitration panel might have immediate and far-reaching consequences for baseball, the Phillies and Ryan Howard. Here are a few things that pop to mind:
-Ryan Howard’s salary has just jumped by a factor of 11, from $900,000 to $10,000,000 … I wish I got a pay increase of that magnitude.
-Does the contested arbitration hearing mean that Howard is a goner when he becomes a free agent? Far from it. I actually think that the arbitration hearing makes it more likely, not less, that the Phillies are going to be able to re-sign Howard. Think about it: had the Phillies won the arbitration, Howard would have been smarting from the arbitrator’s ruling and probably would have sought to test his marketability when the time came. I think that Howard now might be a little more willing to re-sign because he’s getting an extra $3 million bucks now. Sure his team opposed his salary request, but the arbitrator sided with him and now his worth has been established. Precedent is set. If the Phillies take a conciliatory line in negotiations – understanding that re-signing Howard is going to cost them $100 - $120 million over the next seven to ten years – they ought to be able to get Howard on-board with a multi-year deal and take care of business this season or early next.
-This is the first time the Phillies have gone to arbitration since they did against Travis Lee in 2001.
-This is, as near as I can tell, the first time they’ve lost in arbitration.
-Now precedent has been set in terms of future arbitration awards. If Ryan Howard got $10 million, Prince Fielder can command $10 million, or more. Lots of players could see their salaries increase, which would probably drive prices higher in the free agency market.
Here is a link to ESPN's Jayson Stark's report on Howard's victory.Todd Zolecki has a nice piece in the Inquirer about Howard's victory as well. Zolecki posted a few times on the issue in the recent past. Today's post argues that re-signing Ryan Howard has just become more difficult because the arbitration ruling is making Howard more likely to ask for A-Rod type money, something I don't entirely agree with. (At $7 million or at $10 million, Ryan Howard was going to ask for more than what Alfonso Soriano got from the Cubs in 2007.) Yesterday's post is about Howard's jublient reaction to the news.
The Inquirer's Jim Salisbury has a nice analysis of Howard's award here.
Labels: Free Agency, Howard
Monday, February 11, 2008
Dollars and Sense
The Phillies 2007-2008 off-season has been fairly calm and peaceful. No blockbuster trades (Bourn, et al for Lidge doesn’t qualify), no major free agent signings, no problems with a member of the team, no shakeup in the front office … The Phillies had a pretty calm off-season and basically return the same team that won the N.L. East in 2007, winning 89 games along the way. The only issue that is looming is the team’s pending salary arbitration with Ryan Howard, which is scheduled to be heard on February 20th.
This is a big deal too. Ryan Howard, the 2006 N.L. MVP, is a star and a vital part of the Phillies roster. He’s 28 and had blasted 129 home runs is what basically amounts to just two and a half seasons. He’s a bona fide superstar, a player who gets his name noticed by the media – no small feat playing in Philadelphia as opposed to New York – and is in many ways the face of the Phillies. Without his massive, towering home runs, the Phillies would be hard-pressed to move runners along and score runs without his home runs. Not impossible, mind you, but Ryan Howard makes scoring runs a lot easier.
So Howard is important, if not vital, to the Phillies ability to score runs on the field. There is also the thorny issue of race relations. The Phillies history in this regard is pretty grim. They were the last National League team to integrate – and even then they did so grudgingly and their sole black player was a utility infielder. No team was harder on Jackie Robinson. The team’s refusal to integrate following their successful 1950 pennant race cost them dearly when the Braves, Giants and Dodgers utilized integration to spring-board to greatness in the 1950’s. In the 1960’s the racial divide between Dick Allen and the Phillies mostly white fan base boiled over and saw Allen quit Philadelphia in a huff.
Now the Phillies have a black superstar and there is the awkward question of how will the team react when its most valuable black player wants more money. The Phillies inked a long-term extension with Chase Utley last year (7 years, $85 mil), so if the Phillies don’t try and lock Ryan Howard up now, things could be tense and the Phillies might lose Howard to free agency following the 2009 season (which, I believe, would be Howard’s walk year. Correct me if I am wrong). How would it look if the team gave a long-term deal to Chase Utley, a white player, and they didn’t ink Howard to a long-term deal as well? … Although, to be fair to the Phillies, Chase Utley was willing to sign a discounted deal in exchange for a long-term contract. Had Utley tested the free agency waters, he would have been able to sign a multi-year megadeal with the Yankees or the Mets or the Red Sox, but he took a discount to stay with the Phillies, something Ryan Howard, who wants to be paid like Albert Pujols (he’s seeking $10 mil in arbitration, which would be a record, and as much as $20 mil a year in the long-term), doesn’t seem willing to do.
Which makes for a nice lead in to our next topic … Pujols vs. Howard. Howard seems to be fixated on the idea of being compared with Pujols, perhaps the finest player in the National League, a future Hall of Famer, and perennial MVP candidate. Howard himself defeated Pujols for the MVP in 2006 amidst much acrimony by Pujols, who plainly felt he was the better player, and the pundits, who argued that Pujols was the stronger player. One area that the pundits really seemed to focus on was the difference between Pujols and Howard defensively. I have a feeling that the Phillies will make Howard’s defensive abilities at first base a major issue in arbitration.
First base defense is usually a non-issue. First baseman are typically your slow-footed sluggers who would be too slow to play in the outfield and too awkward to play the infield. In the N.L. in particular, since there is no DH, this is where the sluggers like Howard and Pujols go to.
The difference between Howard’s skills and Pujols are considerable, however. In the last two seasons – I’m just comparing those since those are the two full seasons Ryan Howard played – Albert Pujols has been one of the top defensive first baseman in the game. In 2006 he ranked second in the N.L. in Relative Zone Rating (RZR), at .831 to the Dodgers Nomar Garciaparra’s .835 … Ryan Howard was further down the list at seventh, with a .789 RZR. Pujols got to 93 balls hit outside of his zone to Howard’s respectable 51. That is a difference, right there, of 42 plays, or outs, Pujols made and Howard didn’t. Howard committed fourteen errors to Pujols six.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here is a definition of RZR:
Relative Zone Rating (RZR): Is a stat which measures a player’s defensive ability by measuring plays they should have made. Admittedly, this is a stat left open to subjective opinions.
Last year, Pujols led the N.L. in RZR at .843 … Ryan Howard was sixth at .723 … Pujols once more bested Howard, getting to 51 balls hit outside of his zone to Howard’s 21. Pujols made eight errors to Howard’s twelve. Dave Pinto’s Probablistic Model of Range (PMR), a nice stat that measures how many plays a player makes vs. how many they are projected to make based on various factors like the pitchers, the park, etc., rates Albert Pujols very well (about 14% above-average in 2006 and 13% in 2007) vs. Howard (9% below in 2006 and 5% below in 2007).
This is a major difference between the two players and this is the weakest area of Howard’s game. Once George Will argued against the exclusion of a Phillie – Richie Ashburn – from the Hall of Fame by noting Ashburn’s defensive achievements in the 1950’s and asking why denying a double on defense was valued so much more than hitting one at the plate. In comparing Howard and Pujols, Pujols defensive skills and their value is a major factor. If they both give the Phillies and Cardinals 300-320 bases at the plate a year, why not note that Pujols gives the Cards another 50-60 with his glove while Howard gives the Phillies 10-20?
Will the Phillies exploit this area in arbitration on the 20th? Will this lead to soreness on Howard’s part? We shall see.
(7) comments
This is a big deal too. Ryan Howard, the 2006 N.L. MVP, is a star and a vital part of the Phillies roster. He’s 28 and had blasted 129 home runs is what basically amounts to just two and a half seasons. He’s a bona fide superstar, a player who gets his name noticed by the media – no small feat playing in Philadelphia as opposed to New York – and is in many ways the face of the Phillies. Without his massive, towering home runs, the Phillies would be hard-pressed to move runners along and score runs without his home runs. Not impossible, mind you, but Ryan Howard makes scoring runs a lot easier.
So Howard is important, if not vital, to the Phillies ability to score runs on the field. There is also the thorny issue of race relations. The Phillies history in this regard is pretty grim. They were the last National League team to integrate – and even then they did so grudgingly and their sole black player was a utility infielder. No team was harder on Jackie Robinson. The team’s refusal to integrate following their successful 1950 pennant race cost them dearly when the Braves, Giants and Dodgers utilized integration to spring-board to greatness in the 1950’s. In the 1960’s the racial divide between Dick Allen and the Phillies mostly white fan base boiled over and saw Allen quit Philadelphia in a huff.
Now the Phillies have a black superstar and there is the awkward question of how will the team react when its most valuable black player wants more money. The Phillies inked a long-term extension with Chase Utley last year (7 years, $85 mil), so if the Phillies don’t try and lock Ryan Howard up now, things could be tense and the Phillies might lose Howard to free agency following the 2009 season (which, I believe, would be Howard’s walk year. Correct me if I am wrong). How would it look if the team gave a long-term deal to Chase Utley, a white player, and they didn’t ink Howard to a long-term deal as well? … Although, to be fair to the Phillies, Chase Utley was willing to sign a discounted deal in exchange for a long-term contract. Had Utley tested the free agency waters, he would have been able to sign a multi-year megadeal with the Yankees or the Mets or the Red Sox, but he took a discount to stay with the Phillies, something Ryan Howard, who wants to be paid like Albert Pujols (he’s seeking $10 mil in arbitration, which would be a record, and as much as $20 mil a year in the long-term), doesn’t seem willing to do.
Which makes for a nice lead in to our next topic … Pujols vs. Howard. Howard seems to be fixated on the idea of being compared with Pujols, perhaps the finest player in the National League, a future Hall of Famer, and perennial MVP candidate. Howard himself defeated Pujols for the MVP in 2006 amidst much acrimony by Pujols, who plainly felt he was the better player, and the pundits, who argued that Pujols was the stronger player. One area that the pundits really seemed to focus on was the difference between Pujols and Howard defensively. I have a feeling that the Phillies will make Howard’s defensive abilities at first base a major issue in arbitration.
First base defense is usually a non-issue. First baseman are typically your slow-footed sluggers who would be too slow to play in the outfield and too awkward to play the infield. In the N.L. in particular, since there is no DH, this is where the sluggers like Howard and Pujols go to.
The difference between Howard’s skills and Pujols are considerable, however. In the last two seasons – I’m just comparing those since those are the two full seasons Ryan Howard played – Albert Pujols has been one of the top defensive first baseman in the game. In 2006 he ranked second in the N.L. in Relative Zone Rating (RZR), at .831 to the Dodgers Nomar Garciaparra’s .835 … Ryan Howard was further down the list at seventh, with a .789 RZR. Pujols got to 93 balls hit outside of his zone to Howard’s respectable 51. That is a difference, right there, of 42 plays, or outs, Pujols made and Howard didn’t. Howard committed fourteen errors to Pujols six.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here is a definition of RZR:
Relative Zone Rating (RZR): Is a stat which measures a player’s defensive ability by measuring plays they should have made. Admittedly, this is a stat left open to subjective opinions.
Last year, Pujols led the N.L. in RZR at .843 … Ryan Howard was sixth at .723 … Pujols once more bested Howard, getting to 51 balls hit outside of his zone to Howard’s 21. Pujols made eight errors to Howard’s twelve. Dave Pinto’s Probablistic Model of Range (PMR), a nice stat that measures how many plays a player makes vs. how many they are projected to make based on various factors like the pitchers, the park, etc., rates Albert Pujols very well (about 14% above-average in 2006 and 13% in 2007) vs. Howard (9% below in 2006 and 5% below in 2007).
This is a major difference between the two players and this is the weakest area of Howard’s game. Once George Will argued against the exclusion of a Phillie – Richie Ashburn – from the Hall of Fame by noting Ashburn’s defensive achievements in the 1950’s and asking why denying a double on defense was valued so much more than hitting one at the plate. In comparing Howard and Pujols, Pujols defensive skills and their value is a major factor. If they both give the Phillies and Cardinals 300-320 bases at the plate a year, why not note that Pujols gives the Cards another 50-60 with his glove while Howard gives the Phillies 10-20?
Will the Phillies exploit this area in arbitration on the 20th? Will this lead to soreness on Howard’s part? We shall see.
Labels: Fielding, Free Agency, Howard
Friday, November 16, 2007
Chock Full 'o News...
I’ve been pretty busy lately, slaving away at my Season in Review series. I wanted to make some comments about all of the big, big news out there in the baseball world.
-Barry Bonds is federally indicted. I’ll admit off the top that I have a bias against Bonds. He’s a jerk. He’s an angry, ego-centric, embittered a-hole. His contempt for the fans is something I think is disgraceful. However, I would agree with one of my colleagues at work: character is not a prerequisite for the Hall of Fame.
That said, Bonds legacy is in tatters, regardless of how his trial turns out. Bonds has expressed bitterness over his historic 756 home run ball being displayed with an asterisk. Now Bonds has to contend with the fact that his pursuit of the home run record led him to jail. It would be a fitting dénouement to his story.
Oh, and Bonds is in trouble, because the Feds rarely proceed to trial unless they feel it is a sure thing. If they moved to indict Bonds, they must have some pretty good information.
Make no mistake about it: Bonds career is over. Nobody is going to touch him for 2008 with this criminal indictment hanging over his head. He’s done. Who wants to sign a 43-year old baseball player with a pending criminal indictment? No team will want to deal with that kind of agony. That’s it. Goodbye.
-Alex Rodriguez is going to ink a 10-year, $275 million deal with the Yankees. I’m pretty surprised given that the Yankees High Command basically said, “hit the road, jack” when A-Rod opted out of his contract. The Yankees have their big bat in the lineup and the biggest free agent is off the market just days before Thanksgiving.
One column that I read argued that A-Rod is now baseball’s golden boy because the game needs for A-Rod to break Bond’s current record of 762 home runs and do it soon. If A-Rod really does play the next ten years, he could do it. He’s 244 from tying right now. I’m sure baseball would love to see A-Rod break it: a star about whom doping accusations have never been made, plays in New York City and is charismatic and interesting. Baseball, say hello to your new golden boy.
-The Phillies managed to re-sign J.C. Romero to a 3-year deal. He’ll be the set-up man for new closer Brad Lidge now that Geoff Geary went to Houston as part of the deal that brought Lidge here. I’m not a fan of Romero’s: his DIPS ERA was 4.11 in 2007, a full 2.87 runs higher than his ERA. He allows a LOT of walks (25 in 36 innings with the Phillies), too many in my opinion, to be a successful pitcher. I’m worried that he’ll get shelled this season.
-I wonder which of the big free agent centerfielders will be the first to sign: Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones or Rowand? My money is on Hunter inking the first deal to set the market. Jones will go second and Rowand will benefit from the fact that teams desperate for a bat will give him big, big money. Kinda like Carlos Lee from last season.
-We’ll have to see another big deal in the first week of December. With the Twins trying to move Johan Santana to the highest bidder in all likelihood, there have to be some mega-deals out there. With the dearth of pitching on the market, trades are going to be the only way that teams build up their rotations. Mark my words: the Phillies will contact the White Sox about a deal for Jon Garland and soon.
-The Phillies won’t pursue Mike Lowell. They’ll focus on pitching and try to snare a third baseman as an add-on to any trade.
-The Phillies might go out and re-sign Randy Wolf if the price the White Sox mention for Garland is too high. Wolf had a so-so year for the Dodgers (9-6, 4.73 ERA), but I actually think he pitched rather well, surrendering just ten home runs in 102 & 2/3 innings (0.87 HR/9) and getting a lot of strikeouts (8.24 K/9). I think he’d be a solid pickup if the Phillies can’t get Garland.
(2) comments
-Barry Bonds is federally indicted. I’ll admit off the top that I have a bias against Bonds. He’s a jerk. He’s an angry, ego-centric, embittered a-hole. His contempt for the fans is something I think is disgraceful. However, I would agree with one of my colleagues at work: character is not a prerequisite for the Hall of Fame.
That said, Bonds legacy is in tatters, regardless of how his trial turns out. Bonds has expressed bitterness over his historic 756 home run ball being displayed with an asterisk. Now Bonds has to contend with the fact that his pursuit of the home run record led him to jail. It would be a fitting dénouement to his story.
Oh, and Bonds is in trouble, because the Feds rarely proceed to trial unless they feel it is a sure thing. If they moved to indict Bonds, they must have some pretty good information.
Make no mistake about it: Bonds career is over. Nobody is going to touch him for 2008 with this criminal indictment hanging over his head. He’s done. Who wants to sign a 43-year old baseball player with a pending criminal indictment? No team will want to deal with that kind of agony. That’s it. Goodbye.
-Alex Rodriguez is going to ink a 10-year, $275 million deal with the Yankees. I’m pretty surprised given that the Yankees High Command basically said, “hit the road, jack” when A-Rod opted out of his contract. The Yankees have their big bat in the lineup and the biggest free agent is off the market just days before Thanksgiving.
One column that I read argued that A-Rod is now baseball’s golden boy because the game needs for A-Rod to break Bond’s current record of 762 home runs and do it soon. If A-Rod really does play the next ten years, he could do it. He’s 244 from tying right now. I’m sure baseball would love to see A-Rod break it: a star about whom doping accusations have never been made, plays in New York City and is charismatic and interesting. Baseball, say hello to your new golden boy.
-The Phillies managed to re-sign J.C. Romero to a 3-year deal. He’ll be the set-up man for new closer Brad Lidge now that Geoff Geary went to Houston as part of the deal that brought Lidge here. I’m not a fan of Romero’s: his DIPS ERA was 4.11 in 2007, a full 2.87 runs higher than his ERA. He allows a LOT of walks (25 in 36 innings with the Phillies), too many in my opinion, to be a successful pitcher. I’m worried that he’ll get shelled this season.
-I wonder which of the big free agent centerfielders will be the first to sign: Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones or Rowand? My money is on Hunter inking the first deal to set the market. Jones will go second and Rowand will benefit from the fact that teams desperate for a bat will give him big, big money. Kinda like Carlos Lee from last season.
-We’ll have to see another big deal in the first week of December. With the Twins trying to move Johan Santana to the highest bidder in all likelihood, there have to be some mega-deals out there. With the dearth of pitching on the market, trades are going to be the only way that teams build up their rotations. Mark my words: the Phillies will contact the White Sox about a deal for Jon Garland and soon.
-The Phillies won’t pursue Mike Lowell. They’ll focus on pitching and try to snare a third baseman as an add-on to any trade.
-The Phillies might go out and re-sign Randy Wolf if the price the White Sox mention for Garland is too high. Wolf had a so-so year for the Dodgers (9-6, 4.73 ERA), but I actually think he pitched rather well, surrendering just ten home runs in 102 & 2/3 innings (0.87 HR/9) and getting a lot of strikeouts (8.24 K/9). I think he’d be a solid pickup if the Phillies can’t get Garland.
Labels: 756, Free Agency, Pitching, Romero, Rowand, Wolf
Monday, November 05, 2007
Monday Morning...
Former Phillies Triple-A Manager John Russell is getting the nod to succeed Jim Tracy as the Pittsburgh Pirates Manager for 2008 and beyond. Good luck, John, you’ll need it.
Apparently Curt Schilling has indicated that the Detroit Tigers and Phillies are on his short-list of teams he’d like to play for in 2008. I wouldn’t mind seeing the Phillies do a one-year deal for $11-13 million for Schilling. If Schilling is great, then it is money well-spent. Moyer, Schilling, Hamels, that is a deadly 1-2-3. And the team gets a pitcher with a proven track record in the playoffs. If not, then the Phillies cut their ties with him and turn to Carlos Carrasco and Josh Outman in 2009. Win-win.
Scott Boras apparently thinks that his guy (A-Rod) is going to get $30-35 million a season. Good luck. That pretty much rules the cash-strapped Phillies out of the mix and makes the Anaheim Angels the front-runner for the soon-to-be 2007 AL MVP's services.
The Arizona Fall League is well underway and the Peoria Saguaros, which has Phillies like 3B Mike Costanzo, OF Greg Golson and P Joe Savery on the roster are off to a 7-15 start. Ugh.
One of the reasons why I am opposed to the Phillies investing major amounts of money on free agent pitchers is that they have lots of talent currently in the pipeline and the success of the Boston Red Sox teaches us that teams are better-off developing their own talent from within rather than buying it on the marketplace. Teams are going to overpay if they pursue Freddy Garcia and Kyle Lohse, because the scarcity of quality pitching means that many dollars will be pursuing few goods on the market. Savery, Outman and Carrasco are going to be Major League-ready in 2009. Why make a major investment in free agents when cheap, home-grown talent will be ready in a year?
A turn to Football: Andy Reid needs to take a sabbatical from coaching and deal with his issues. It was painfully obvious that the Eagles play-calling has gotten absurdly predictable. The Cowboys leaped on every screen the Eagles tried to run to Westbrook and got into McNabb’s face all night. They never bothered to establish a running game and looked out of sync all night. With games coming up against the Redskins, Dolphins and Patriots, the Eagles need to revamp some things and return to the winning football they played at the end of 2006, when Marty Mornhinweg called the plays and the Eagles actually established a running game. Bottom-line, unless they keep Tom Brady and the Patriots off the field when they play, it is going to be a 52-7 Patriots laugher.
A turn to History: The Hardball Times John Brattain wrote a nice article ("Ghosts of World Series Past") about the 1950 World Series, which featured the Philadelphia Phillies in what was probably the hardest fought sweep in World Series history. Readers of this blog know that I wrote a series about the 1950 Wiz Kids last fall. Click here for the article about the World Series.
(0) comments
Apparently Curt Schilling has indicated that the Detroit Tigers and Phillies are on his short-list of teams he’d like to play for in 2008. I wouldn’t mind seeing the Phillies do a one-year deal for $11-13 million for Schilling. If Schilling is great, then it is money well-spent. Moyer, Schilling, Hamels, that is a deadly 1-2-3. And the team gets a pitcher with a proven track record in the playoffs. If not, then the Phillies cut their ties with him and turn to Carlos Carrasco and Josh Outman in 2009. Win-win.
Scott Boras apparently thinks that his guy (A-Rod) is going to get $30-35 million a season. Good luck. That pretty much rules the cash-strapped Phillies out of the mix and makes the Anaheim Angels the front-runner for the soon-to-be 2007 AL MVP's services.
The Arizona Fall League is well underway and the Peoria Saguaros, which has Phillies like 3B Mike Costanzo, OF Greg Golson and P Joe Savery on the roster are off to a 7-15 start. Ugh.
One of the reasons why I am opposed to the Phillies investing major amounts of money on free agent pitchers is that they have lots of talent currently in the pipeline and the success of the Boston Red Sox teaches us that teams are better-off developing their own talent from within rather than buying it on the marketplace. Teams are going to overpay if they pursue Freddy Garcia and Kyle Lohse, because the scarcity of quality pitching means that many dollars will be pursuing few goods on the market. Savery, Outman and Carrasco are going to be Major League-ready in 2009. Why make a major investment in free agents when cheap, home-grown talent will be ready in a year?
A turn to Football: Andy Reid needs to take a sabbatical from coaching and deal with his issues. It was painfully obvious that the Eagles play-calling has gotten absurdly predictable. The Cowboys leaped on every screen the Eagles tried to run to Westbrook and got into McNabb’s face all night. They never bothered to establish a running game and looked out of sync all night. With games coming up against the Redskins, Dolphins and Patriots, the Eagles need to revamp some things and return to the winning football they played at the end of 2006, when Marty Mornhinweg called the plays and the Eagles actually established a running game. Bottom-line, unless they keep Tom Brady and the Patriots off the field when they play, it is going to be a 52-7 Patriots laugher.
A turn to History: The Hardball Times John Brattain wrote a nice article ("Ghosts of World Series Past") about the 1950 World Series, which featured the Philadelphia Phillies in what was probably the hardest fought sweep in World Series history. Readers of this blog know that I wrote a series about the 1950 Wiz Kids last fall. Click here for the article about the World Series.
Labels: 1950, Free Agency, Odds 'n Ends
Friday, November 02, 2007
Free Agents
Today’s a Friday and I haven’t gotten a chance to put together a discussion of the Phillies other three minor league teams yet. I’m also working on my Season in Review series right now, so there are a lot of logs in the fire.
So far the following Phillies have declared Free Agency:
Kyle Lohse
Freddy Garcia
Rod Barajas
J.C. Romero
Antonio Alfonseca
Jose Mesa
Abraham Nunez
Aaron Rowand
Jon Lieber
Obviously the Phillies have no interest in re-signing Nunez and Barajas since they declined their options in both players. Garcia is out of the Phillies price range, so he’s a goner, and Mesa, Alfonseca and Lieber are players whom the Phillies likely regard as too old and possessing declining skills. There are only three players who the Phillies would be interested in re-signing. Lohse, Romero and Rowand.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
Kyle Lohse – I believe Scott Boras is Lohse’s agent, so the chances of the Phillies re-signing Lohse is slim-to-none. A talented pitcher on a market which is nearly devoid of quality pitching, Boras knows he’ll be able to command a king’s ransom for Lohse’s services. Expect Boras to leverage Lohse solid 2007 campaign (9-12, 4.62 ERA as a Red and Phillie) into big bucks. $10 million plus is not outside the realm of possibility here.
Chances of re-signing with the Phillies: 5%.
J.C. Romero – Here is a player the Phillies would dearly love to keep. I’m actually not that impressed by Romero’s stats, however. As a Phillie he gave up 25 walks in 36 innings of work, which means he’d give up 6.25 walks per nine innings pitched. Romero pitched waaaay worse than his 1.24 ERA as a Phillie suggests. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA is 3.98, over three times higher than his official ERA. Romero has consistently allowed a lot of walks throughout his career in the major leagues. As a Minnesota Twin in 2004 and 2005 he gave up 4.6 BB/9 and 5.7 BB/9 respectively, and as an Anaheim Angel in 2006 he gave up 4.8 BB/9. I know that the Phillies want to bring him back, but I am unimpressed.
Romero made 1.6 million in 2007 and while I think that the chances of bringing him back are good, the scarcity of quality pitching might drive Romero’s asking price too high for the Phillies blood.
Chances of re-signing with the Phillies: 20%.
Aaron Rowand – the Phillies want to bring Rowand back, but it isn’t going to happen. The Phillies won’t, after the Pat Burrell experience, ink a deal longer than three or four years, while Rowand appears fixed on five or six, and they won’t go higher than $10 million a year, while Rowand looks like he wants to go into the $12-14 million dollar range. Expect the Phillies to go through the motions of re-signing Rowand, but they have cheaper options on their roster who would do the job well and they want to commit some of that money to a long-term deal for Ryan Howard and securing more pitching this off-season. Don’t be surprised to see Shane Victorino or Michael Bourn manning centerfield in 2008.
Chances of re-signing with the Phillies: 1%.
Have a nice weekend!
(0) comments
So far the following Phillies have declared Free Agency:
Kyle Lohse
Freddy Garcia
Rod Barajas
J.C. Romero
Antonio Alfonseca
Jose Mesa
Abraham Nunez
Aaron Rowand
Jon Lieber
Obviously the Phillies have no interest in re-signing Nunez and Barajas since they declined their options in both players. Garcia is out of the Phillies price range, so he’s a goner, and Mesa, Alfonseca and Lieber are players whom the Phillies likely regard as too old and possessing declining skills. There are only three players who the Phillies would be interested in re-signing. Lohse, Romero and Rowand.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
Kyle Lohse – I believe Scott Boras is Lohse’s agent, so the chances of the Phillies re-signing Lohse is slim-to-none. A talented pitcher on a market which is nearly devoid of quality pitching, Boras knows he’ll be able to command a king’s ransom for Lohse’s services. Expect Boras to leverage Lohse solid 2007 campaign (9-12, 4.62 ERA as a Red and Phillie) into big bucks. $10 million plus is not outside the realm of possibility here.
Chances of re-signing with the Phillies: 5%.
J.C. Romero – Here is a player the Phillies would dearly love to keep. I’m actually not that impressed by Romero’s stats, however. As a Phillie he gave up 25 walks in 36 innings of work, which means he’d give up 6.25 walks per nine innings pitched. Romero pitched waaaay worse than his 1.24 ERA as a Phillie suggests. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA is 3.98, over three times higher than his official ERA. Romero has consistently allowed a lot of walks throughout his career in the major leagues. As a Minnesota Twin in 2004 and 2005 he gave up 4.6 BB/9 and 5.7 BB/9 respectively, and as an Anaheim Angel in 2006 he gave up 4.8 BB/9. I know that the Phillies want to bring him back, but I am unimpressed.
Romero made 1.6 million in 2007 and while I think that the chances of bringing him back are good, the scarcity of quality pitching might drive Romero’s asking price too high for the Phillies blood.
Chances of re-signing with the Phillies: 20%.
Aaron Rowand – the Phillies want to bring Rowand back, but it isn’t going to happen. The Phillies won’t, after the Pat Burrell experience, ink a deal longer than three or four years, while Rowand appears fixed on five or six, and they won’t go higher than $10 million a year, while Rowand looks like he wants to go into the $12-14 million dollar range. Expect the Phillies to go through the motions of re-signing Rowand, but they have cheaper options on their roster who would do the job well and they want to commit some of that money to a long-term deal for Ryan Howard and securing more pitching this off-season. Don’t be surprised to see Shane Victorino or Michael Bourn manning centerfield in 2008.
Chances of re-signing with the Phillies: 1%.
Have a nice weekend!
Labels: Free Agency, Lohse, Pitching, Romero, Rowand
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Retreads, Returns and Rumors …
Lots of news and rumors being thrown around out there. First off, the Cleveland Indians are just a game away from the World Series after last night's 7-3 win over the Red Sox in Cleveland. Tomorrow night the Red Sox send Josh Beckett to the mound against the Indians. Remember that Beckett hurled a seven-strikeout, four-hit performance in game one of the series. I'm predicting a Red Sox win tomorrow and that the series will go to a seventh game.
Let's see, the Phillies re-signed their entire coaching staff for 2008. Good move. I think you have to give credit to a lot of the people that helped Charlie Manuel out in 2007 in coaching the team. Specifically, I’d single out Rich Dubee, the Phillies pitching coach, and Davey Lopes for praise here.
Dubee oversaw an absolute disaster in 2007, watching thirteen different pitchers log starts, nine different pitchers log saves, and twenty-eight pitch at least 1/3 of an inning. Credit Dubee with getting rookies called up from the minors like Kyle Kendrick prepared to pitch in the majors. It was an impressive performance and Dubee deserves a lot of credit for what he did in 2007. I think, under his tutelage, a more stable Phillies rotation will be able to excel and improve on their 4.73 ERA.
Lopes has been a person whom I’ve lavished a lot of praise upon in 2007. He really took charge and worked guys like Shane Victorino and Michael Bourn to become lethal base-stealers. That emphasis on speed and better base-running skills was a big factor in the Phillies scoring an N.L.-best 892 runs in 2007. In fact, the Phillies 892 runs is better than every other team in the Major Leagues aside from the Yankees (969). Even with a pitcher batting ninth, the Phillies bested 13 of 14 A.L. teams. Lopes energy and passion for base-stealing and better base-running I think sharpened the Phillies focus and made them better players.
Second, there are rumors that Curt Schilling and Scott Rolen are interested in returning to the Phillies. This is a possibility, though I highly doubt it. With Rolen, his departure from the team was rather acrimonious and while there is a new regime calling the shots, I can’t see the Phillies having much interest in bringing him back. His skills are clearly in decline – he hit eight home runs and 58 RBIs in 112 games in 2007 – and he left the Phillies under bad circumstances back in 2002. It's just a bad fit and I don't see why the Phillies would go that route.
Curt Schilling is a more likely fit, given how badly the Phillies need pitching. Schilling’s departure in 2000 was less an angry divorce than mutual breakup, and he’s still got skills. He was just 9-8 in 2007, but his ERA was under 4.00: 3.87 in the American League. Schilling’s ability to toss strikes would be a major asset to the Phillies. Schilling allowed just 23 walks in 151 innings in 2007: 1.37 BB/9! Plus, Schilling was usually on good relations with management and helped them during the J.D. Drew saga. I could see Schilling returning to Philly on a one or two-year deal.
Get set for yet another “The Phillies are Trading Pat Burrell” sweepstakes this fall. Desperate to unload Burrell and his $14 million dollar salary, the Phillies have apparently advertised that they are willing to kick in some of Burrell's salary to make the deal happen. If Burrell does leave, I see him heading down I-95 to Baltimore and playing the DH slot for the Orioles in exchange for the O’s sending Miguel Tejada north to play third for the Phillies. The Orioles DH in 2007, Aubrey Huff, hit just 15 Home Runs and had a .337 OBP. Burrell would well exceed that.
According to news reports, Aaron Rowand has asked the Phillies for a six-year deal worth $84 million dollars ($14 million a year), while the Phillies have countered with three-years and $30 million. In terms of amount and length of deal, the two sides are far apart. Very far apart. I really can’t see the Phillies going longer than four years and more than $10-11 million a year after the Pat Burrell experience. If Rowand re-signs with the Phillies it will be a 4-year deal worth $44 million or something in that range. Rowand could easily fetch over $12 million or more and over five years on the open market. My gut tells me he’ll take the money.
Mike Lowell is interested in the Phillies, or so he says. He might just be posturing with the Red Sox.
Chase Utley and Aaron Rowand were named to The Sporting News National League squad, a slap in the face to Jimmy Rollins, who is a viable MVP candidate. If he doesn't win the N.L. MVP award, he'll be fired up in 2008. I agree with Utley, but Rowand was far from the N.L.'s best center fielder.
More tomorrow.
(3) comments
Let's see, the Phillies re-signed their entire coaching staff for 2008. Good move. I think you have to give credit to a lot of the people that helped Charlie Manuel out in 2007 in coaching the team. Specifically, I’d single out Rich Dubee, the Phillies pitching coach, and Davey Lopes for praise here.
Dubee oversaw an absolute disaster in 2007, watching thirteen different pitchers log starts, nine different pitchers log saves, and twenty-eight pitch at least 1/3 of an inning. Credit Dubee with getting rookies called up from the minors like Kyle Kendrick prepared to pitch in the majors. It was an impressive performance and Dubee deserves a lot of credit for what he did in 2007. I think, under his tutelage, a more stable Phillies rotation will be able to excel and improve on their 4.73 ERA.
Lopes has been a person whom I’ve lavished a lot of praise upon in 2007. He really took charge and worked guys like Shane Victorino and Michael Bourn to become lethal base-stealers. That emphasis on speed and better base-running skills was a big factor in the Phillies scoring an N.L.-best 892 runs in 2007. In fact, the Phillies 892 runs is better than every other team in the Major Leagues aside from the Yankees (969). Even with a pitcher batting ninth, the Phillies bested 13 of 14 A.L. teams. Lopes energy and passion for base-stealing and better base-running I think sharpened the Phillies focus and made them better players.
Second, there are rumors that Curt Schilling and Scott Rolen are interested in returning to the Phillies. This is a possibility, though I highly doubt it. With Rolen, his departure from the team was rather acrimonious and while there is a new regime calling the shots, I can’t see the Phillies having much interest in bringing him back. His skills are clearly in decline – he hit eight home runs and 58 RBIs in 112 games in 2007 – and he left the Phillies under bad circumstances back in 2002. It's just a bad fit and I don't see why the Phillies would go that route.
Curt Schilling is a more likely fit, given how badly the Phillies need pitching. Schilling’s departure in 2000 was less an angry divorce than mutual breakup, and he’s still got skills. He was just 9-8 in 2007, but his ERA was under 4.00: 3.87 in the American League. Schilling’s ability to toss strikes would be a major asset to the Phillies. Schilling allowed just 23 walks in 151 innings in 2007: 1.37 BB/9! Plus, Schilling was usually on good relations with management and helped them during the J.D. Drew saga. I could see Schilling returning to Philly on a one or two-year deal.
Get set for yet another “The Phillies are Trading Pat Burrell” sweepstakes this fall. Desperate to unload Burrell and his $14 million dollar salary, the Phillies have apparently advertised that they are willing to kick in some of Burrell's salary to make the deal happen. If Burrell does leave, I see him heading down I-95 to Baltimore and playing the DH slot for the Orioles in exchange for the O’s sending Miguel Tejada north to play third for the Phillies. The Orioles DH in 2007, Aubrey Huff, hit just 15 Home Runs and had a .337 OBP. Burrell would well exceed that.
According to news reports, Aaron Rowand has asked the Phillies for a six-year deal worth $84 million dollars ($14 million a year), while the Phillies have countered with three-years and $30 million. In terms of amount and length of deal, the two sides are far apart. Very far apart. I really can’t see the Phillies going longer than four years and more than $10-11 million a year after the Pat Burrell experience. If Rowand re-signs with the Phillies it will be a 4-year deal worth $44 million or something in that range. Rowand could easily fetch over $12 million or more and over five years on the open market. My gut tells me he’ll take the money.
Mike Lowell is interested in the Phillies, or so he says. He might just be posturing with the Red Sox.
Chase Utley and Aaron Rowand were named to The Sporting News National League squad, a slap in the face to Jimmy Rollins, who is a viable MVP candidate. If he doesn't win the N.L. MVP award, he'll be fired up in 2008. I agree with Utley, but Rowand was far from the N.L.'s best center fielder.
More tomorrow.
Labels: Burrell, Free Agency, Rowand
