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Michael/Male/26-30. Lives in United States/Pennsylvania/Wexford/Christopher Wren, speaks English. Spends 20% of daytime online. Uses a Fast (128k-512k) connection. And likes baseball /politics.
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United States, Pennsylvania, Wexford, Christopher Wren, English, Michael, Male, 26-30, baseball , politics.

Friday, October 12, 2007

Blueprint for 2008 

With the 2007 season over, I am busy writing my Year in Review and mulling over what the 2008 version of the Phillies is going to look like. I have some thoughts on who will return and who is as good as gone from the Phillies. Here they are:

Starting Pitching. The Phillies will need five starters for 2008. Pencil in Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer into slots #1 and #2. That’s two. Kyle Kendrick seems to have a firm grasp on the #3 slot. The logic choice, partly due to his contract, for #4 would be Adam Eaton, which means that the Phillies need a fifth starter for the rotation again. Possibilities here include trade deals involving Jon Garland, Rich Harden, Dontrelle Willis, and, tantalizingly, Johan Santana. Expect this to be the area where the Phillies devote the bulk of the $20 million or so they have to spend this off-season to, and also expect the Phillies to deal something from their minor league system to acquire pitching.

The Bullpen. Pencil in Brett Myers as the Phillies closer for 2008. It’s a job that he’s proven himself to be quite good at and it would give the Phillies the lights-out closer they desperate need and lacked for years. Setting up Myers are J.C. Romero, who needs to be re-signed, and Geoff Geary. Perhaps Ryan Madson can work his way back here. The other three slots in the Phillies bullpen are up for grabs. Look for the Phillies to spend some time and money to upgrade these slots.

The problem, as Pat Gillick has noted, is that pitching is at a premium in the major leagues and when you want to buy it off the open market (i.e., free agency), you tend to pay outrageous prices. It’s basic economics. Expect pitching to once again be at a premium in the off-season, and expect the Phillies to be forced to over-pay. Either in bringing free agents to town or in affecting a trade to secure help in the bullpen.

Third Base. Wes Helms was not the answer. He hit just five home runs and had a mere 39 RBI. He hit .198 with runners in scoring position. His On-Base Percentage was .297. Utility infielder (calling him “light-hitting” would imply that he hits something) Abraham Nunez isn’t the answer either, because the Phillies elected to not exercise their $2.5 million dollar option for him for 2008. The Phillies need someone who can play the hot-corner and provide some pop to the lineup. I wonder if Tadahito Iguchi, the Phillies acquisition from the White Sox, can do the job. He’s not a power-hitter – just a .138 ISO – but he’s a good contact hitter who has some speed and makes good decisions. After getting a fifth starter, this is where the Phillies will spend some dough. I wonder: Mike Lowell as a Phillie?

Who’ll be back. Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, Kyle Lohse, Adam Eaton, Brett Myers, J.C. Romero (hopefully), Geoff Geary, Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz, Tadahito Iguchi, Michael Bourn, Pat Burrell, Wes Helms. That’s basically sixteen of the Phillies twenty-five players right there. Notable is how young the core of the Phillies roster is: Cole Hamels is 23. Bourn is 24. Werth is 29. Kendrick is 23. Myers is 28. Victorino is 27. You get the idea.

What is really exciting about the 2008, 2009, 2010 Phillies is that the core of the team is 30 or younger and these guys are going to be around for years. If the Phillies can hold off the Braves and Mets, this could be a dynasty in the making, a team a lot like the mid-1990’s Cleveland Indians, which dominated their division with a young core of talent.

Who’s Gone. Abraham Nunez, Rod Barajas, Antonio Alfonseca, Jose Mesa, Jon Lieber, Freddy Garcia, Kyle Lohse. Lieber won’t be back despite pitching some strong performances in 2008. The team that signs him will be getting one heck of a pitcher, but that won’t be the Phillies. (The Mets?) Garcia, likewise, won’t be back because he can command millions on the open market place despite his arm injury last season. I see him in a Yankees uniform in 2008. Lohse is being represented by Scott Boras, so count on him leaving the Phillies and signing a mega-deal ($12-14 mil) for some team desperate for pitching. Nunez, the non-hitting utility infielder, is gone now that the Phillies won't exercise their option. The Phillies have also declined options on catcher Rod Barajas (4 Home Runs, 10 RBI), which is addition by subtraction as far as I am concerned.

On the bubble. Aaron Rowand. Will the Phillies re-sign him? Will they over-pay? My guess is that the Phillies will let Rowand walk rather than sign him to the $10 to $11 million a year he’ll command on the open market (Gary Matthews, Jr. inked a 5-year, $50 million deal last season, can Rowand be expected to ask for less?), and that’s not completely a bad thing. I’ll expand upon this next week a little, but Rowand has some flaws as a ballplayer. Sure, the fans and his teammates love his passion, fire and walk-through walls mentality. However, Rowand's got some flaws in his game. E.g., Rowand’s 47 walks (.069 BB/PA) is a rarity for his career. He’s a free-swinging hitter who rarely works counts, rarely draws walks and is the most consistent producer of outs on the Phillies roster after Jimmy Rollins, and he lacks Rollins speed on the base-paths. Rowand’s ability to get on base is predicated on his ability to get a hit, and players who are purely dedicated to hits at the plate tend to be inconsistent. Rowand had a good year at the plate – he hit .309, better than the .262 and .270 he hit in 2006 and 2005 – but that’s probably a fluke. Rowand’s BB/PA over the last few seasons is utterly abysmal: .040 in 2006, .050 in 2005, .056 in 2004 … And Rowand’s defensive skills have been a disappointment after he was so good manning center field for the White Sox in 2005. No … I see Shane Victorino or Michael Bourn as the Phillies starting center fielder on Opening Day, 2008.

Farm Hands. Lost in all of this talk is the Phillies farm system. They’ve got a lot of great talent sitting down in Ottawa and Reading and Clearwater and you can expect to see a lot of it up in Philadelphia in 2008. Mike Costanzo, who hit .270 with 27 Home Runs and 89 RBI in 2007 with the Reading Phillies, will probably being playing with the Lehigh Valley Ironpigs in 2008, the Phillies new Triple-A affiliate. A mid-season call up is a definite possibility. Carlos Carrasco, the Phillies spectacular pitcher who finished the season in Double-A Reading, cold head to Philadelphia by mid-season as well. Carrasco is the top prospect in the Phillies system and could wind up being their fifth starter ultimately. Costanzo, Carrasco, Josh Outman, Jason Donald, Adrian Cardenas, and Kyle Drabek are all potential minor-league trade bait for help on the mound.

These are all very preliminary thoughts. I’ll expand on some this week coming up a little.

Posting schedule:
Monday:
Aaron Rowand
Tuesday: Will Johan Santana be a Phillie?
Wednesday: No Post
Thursday: Musings on Citizens Bank Ballpark
Friday: Chris Coste

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Monday, October 08, 2007

Phillies - Rockies Series Review 

What a horrible week for Phillies baseball. After Sunday ended with the Phillies triumph over the Mets for the N.L. East crown, nothing went right for the Phillies.

First, the San Diego Padres blew a lead to the Colorado Rockies and sent to the Rockies to the playoffs as the N.L. wildcard. The Rockies had concluded their season with victories in 14 of 15 games. They were the only team in baseball playing with more confidence and more momentum than the Phillies.

Then the Phillies dropped both of the opening games at home, before going onto Colorado and dropping the final game of the series 2-1 Saturday Night (late, I might add, I stayed up until 12:30 AM to watch it) in the Mile-High City. The quick exit tarnished the Phillies September run and has left a sour taste in the mouths of Phillies phandom.

Let’s go back and give a few reasons why the Phillies lost in the first place. Good pitching always defeats good hitting and vice versa, said Yogi Berra. Good pitching was the difference here. The Rockies managed to hold the Phillies to eight runs and a .274 OBP, about eighty points under the Phillies season average. The Phillies .366 slugging percentage was ninety-two points lower. The Phillies OPS in the series was just .640, compared to their .812 in the regular season.

More stats of note: in their 27 innings of work, the Rockies struck-out 26 Phillies and issued 12 walks.

As I poured through the numbers it became apparent that the Phillies never got going against the Rockies hitters. They hit poorly in the clutch: 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position (.091 BA/RISP), but part of that was that the Phillies rarely had runners in scoring position. Aside from their five home runs, there were just two Phillies hits for extra-bases: a triple of Jimmy Rollins and a double by Carlos Ruiz. The Phillies also only stole three bases.

Every Phillies hitter struggled. Aside from hitting solo home runs in Game One, Aaron Rowand and Pat Burrell were virtually automatic outs. Rowand was 1-for-12 and Burrell was 2-for-11. Throw out those home runs they hit, and the two went 1-for-21 with no runs, no RBI and seven strike-outs.

Chase Utley was 2-for-11 with five strikeouts. Ryan Howard was 3-for-12 with seven strikeouts. The supporting cast wasn’t a help either: Wes Helms was 0-for-2, Jayson Werth was 0-for-3, and Greg Dobbs was 0-for-3. Jimmy Rollins went 2-for-11, but he also had a triple, a home run, hit four RBI, had a stolen base and drew two walks. Out of all of the Phillies, he played the best.

The Phillies pitchers deserve some of the blame for the debacle, but you have to acknowledge that Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer pitched well. Moyer, in particular, was a surprise since he hadn’t beaten the Rockies in his career, his start in Denver this season had gone so poorly, and his soft-tossing style seemed to promise hits sailing into the outfield. Yet Jamie Moyer tried to keep the Phillies in the series with a brilliant performance in Game Three, allowing just one run on five hits and two walks in six innings of work.

Cole Hamels pitched well in Game One, allowing just three runs in six and two-thirds of an inning of work, tagging seven strikeouts and allowing just three hits and four walks. He seemed in control of the game and had he gotten some run support from his brethren, he might have won Game One for the Phillies.

The rest of the Phillies pitching staff is another story entirely. Kyle Kendrick pitched poorly in Game Two and Kyle Lohse allowed the pivotal home run in Game Two that effectively sank the Phillies chances in the series. J.C. Romero failed the Phillies in the eighth inning Saturday Night. Jose Mesa’s ERA in the series was 81.00. ‘Nuff said.

Simply put, the Phillies couldn’t hold a candle to the Rockies pitching staff, which is vastly under-rated and under-appreciated. As I watched the Rockies on Saturday Night, I thought: poor Diamondbacks. They don’t have a chance. The Rockies pitching staff is very good and was the real difference-maker. If they pitch this well against the D-backs more punch-less offense, I don’t see how the Rockies could lose.

What of Charlie Manuel? He certainly made mistakes in the series. His decision in Game Three to take out Tom Gordon and put J.C. Romero in can be second-guessed. His decision in Game Two to intentionally walk Yorvit Torrealba was baffling and came back to bite the Phillies when Seth Smith hit an infield single to load the bases, then Manuel brought in Lohse to surrender the pivotal grand slam to Kaz Matsui. The walk to Torrealba looms large as a blunder, but allowing Romero to pitch while saving Brett Myers for the ninth-inning and extra-innings seemed like a reasonable strategy in Game Three, and bringing in Lohse to pitch to Matsui seemed like a good move given that Kendrick had thrown a number of pitches by that juncture. I don’t think you can pin this loss in the series on Charlie Manuel. That would be unfair.

The odd thing I noticed in the pages of the Philadelphia Inquirer was how upbeat the coverage of the Phillies was. Despite the tragic sweep, the people who cover this team seem to be optimistic about its future. E.g., check out Jim Salisbury's take. It’s players seem to be optimistic. The fans need to be too. This is only the beginning of the Phillies run, not the end.

In summing up, let me just comment on the stunning fact that three of the four divisional series were sweeps: the Rockies over the Phillies, the Diamondbacks over the Cubs, the Red Sox over the Angels. I’d like to add that I got every one of those series wrong. The Cubs are a much stronger team on paper than the Diamondbacks and I was certain they’d take the series, especially with the momentum they’ve been playing with. Lou Pinella’s decision to pull Carlos Zambrano in Game One of their series looks to be the thread that unwound the Cubs tapestry. Burdened by decades of history and expectations, they folded quietly. Wait ‘til next year.

Over in the American League, I was stunned by how the Red Sox pitching utterly dominated the Angels. I really thought that the Angels would have an edge here, but they did not. Josh Beckett’s nine-inning, four-hit, eight-strikeout masterpiece in Game One set the tone. Meanwhile, the Yankees kept alive, but I think the Indians will win the series regardless. That one will go to five games.

Alright, so here is the posting schedule for the week coming up:

Tuesday: Rockies – Diamondbacks Analysis
Wednesday: Bring Back Charlie Manuel?
Thursday: Speed & the Phillies in 2007
Friday: The Blueprint for 2008

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