Friday, October 12, 2007
Blueprint for 2008
With the 2007 season over, I am busy writing my Year in Review and mulling over what the 2008 version of the Phillies is going to look like. I have some thoughts on who will return and who is as good as gone from the Phillies. Here they are:
Starting Pitching. The Phillies will need five starters for 2008. Pencil in Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer into slots #1 and #2. That’s two. Kyle Kendrick seems to have a firm grasp on the #3 slot. The logic choice, partly due to his contract, for #4 would be Adam Eaton, which means that the Phillies need a fifth starter for the rotation again. Possibilities here include trade deals involving Jon Garland, Rich Harden, Dontrelle Willis, and, tantalizingly, Johan Santana. Expect this to be the area where the Phillies devote the bulk of the $20 million or so they have to spend this off-season to, and also expect the Phillies to deal something from their minor league system to acquire pitching.
The Bullpen. Pencil in Brett Myers as the Phillies closer for 2008. It’s a job that he’s proven himself to be quite good at and it would give the Phillies the lights-out closer they desperate need and lacked for years. Setting up Myers are J.C. Romero, who needs to be re-signed, and Geoff Geary. Perhaps Ryan Madson can work his way back here. The other three slots in the Phillies bullpen are up for grabs. Look for the Phillies to spend some time and money to upgrade these slots.
The problem, as Pat Gillick has noted, is that pitching is at a premium in the major leagues and when you want to buy it off the open market (i.e., free agency), you tend to pay outrageous prices. It’s basic economics. Expect pitching to once again be at a premium in the off-season, and expect the Phillies to be forced to over-pay. Either in bringing free agents to town or in affecting a trade to secure help in the bullpen.
Third Base. Wes Helms was not the answer. He hit just five home runs and had a mere 39 RBI. He hit .198 with runners in scoring position. His On-Base Percentage was .297. Utility infielder (calling him “light-hitting” would imply that he hits something) Abraham Nunez isn’t the answer either, because the Phillies elected to not exercise their $2.5 million dollar option for him for 2008. The Phillies need someone who can play the hot-corner and provide some pop to the lineup. I wonder if Tadahito Iguchi, the Phillies acquisition from the White Sox, can do the job. He’s not a power-hitter – just a .138 ISO – but he’s a good contact hitter who has some speed and makes good decisions. After getting a fifth starter, this is where the Phillies will spend some dough. I wonder: Mike Lowell as a Phillie?
Who’ll be back. Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, Kyle Lohse, Adam Eaton, Brett Myers, J.C. Romero (hopefully), Geoff Geary, Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz, Tadahito Iguchi, Michael Bourn, Pat Burrell, Wes Helms. That’s basically sixteen of the Phillies twenty-five players right there. Notable is how young the core of the Phillies roster is: Cole Hamels is 23. Bourn is 24. Werth is 29. Kendrick is 23. Myers is 28. Victorino is 27. You get the idea.
What is really exciting about the 2008, 2009, 2010 Phillies is that the core of the team is 30 or younger and these guys are going to be around for years. If the Phillies can hold off the Braves and Mets, this could be a dynasty in the making, a team a lot like the mid-1990’s Cleveland Indians, which dominated their division with a young core of talent.
Who’s Gone. Abraham Nunez, Rod Barajas, Antonio Alfonseca, Jose Mesa, Jon Lieber, Freddy Garcia, Kyle Lohse. Lieber won’t be back despite pitching some strong performances in 2008. The team that signs him will be getting one heck of a pitcher, but that won’t be the Phillies. (The Mets?) Garcia, likewise, won’t be back because he can command millions on the open market place despite his arm injury last season. I see him in a Yankees uniform in 2008. Lohse is being represented by Scott Boras, so count on him leaving the Phillies and signing a mega-deal ($12-14 mil) for some team desperate for pitching. Nunez, the non-hitting utility infielder, is gone now that the Phillies won't exercise their option. The Phillies have also declined options on catcher Rod Barajas (4 Home Runs, 10 RBI), which is addition by subtraction as far as I am concerned.
On the bubble. Aaron Rowand. Will the Phillies re-sign him? Will they over-pay? My guess is that the Phillies will let Rowand walk rather than sign him to the $10 to $11 million a year he’ll command on the open market (Gary Matthews, Jr. inked a 5-year, $50 million deal last season, can Rowand be expected to ask for less?), and that’s not completely a bad thing. I’ll expand upon this next week a little, but Rowand has some flaws as a ballplayer. Sure, the fans and his teammates love his passion, fire and walk-through walls mentality. However, Rowand's got some flaws in his game. E.g., Rowand’s 47 walks (.069 BB/PA) is a rarity for his career. He’s a free-swinging hitter who rarely works counts, rarely draws walks and is the most consistent producer of outs on the Phillies roster after Jimmy Rollins, and he lacks Rollins speed on the base-paths. Rowand’s ability to get on base is predicated on his ability to get a hit, and players who are purely dedicated to hits at the plate tend to be inconsistent. Rowand had a good year at the plate – he hit .309, better than the .262 and .270 he hit in 2006 and 2005 – but that’s probably a fluke. Rowand’s BB/PA over the last few seasons is utterly abysmal: .040 in 2006, .050 in 2005, .056 in 2004 … And Rowand’s defensive skills have been a disappointment after he was so good manning center field for the White Sox in 2005. No … I see Shane Victorino or Michael Bourn as the Phillies starting center fielder on Opening Day, 2008.
Farm Hands. Lost in all of this talk is the Phillies farm system. They’ve got a lot of great talent sitting down in Ottawa and Reading and Clearwater and you can expect to see a lot of it up in Philadelphia in 2008. Mike Costanzo, who hit .270 with 27 Home Runs and 89 RBI in 2007 with the Reading Phillies, will probably being playing with the Lehigh Valley Ironpigs in 2008, the Phillies new Triple-A affiliate. A mid-season call up is a definite possibility. Carlos Carrasco, the Phillies spectacular pitcher who finished the season in Double-A Reading, cold head to Philadelphia by mid-season as well. Carrasco is the top prospect in the Phillies system and could wind up being their fifth starter ultimately. Costanzo, Carrasco, Josh Outman, Jason Donald, Adrian Cardenas, and Kyle Drabek are all potential minor-league trade bait for help on the mound.
These are all very preliminary thoughts. I’ll expand on some this week coming up a little.
Posting schedule:
Monday: Aaron Rowand
Tuesday: Will Johan Santana be a Phillie?
Wednesday: No Post
Thursday: Musings on Citizens Bank Ballpark
Friday: Chris Coste
(8) comments
Starting Pitching. The Phillies will need five starters for 2008. Pencil in Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer into slots #1 and #2. That’s two. Kyle Kendrick seems to have a firm grasp on the #3 slot. The logic choice, partly due to his contract, for #4 would be Adam Eaton, which means that the Phillies need a fifth starter for the rotation again. Possibilities here include trade deals involving Jon Garland, Rich Harden, Dontrelle Willis, and, tantalizingly, Johan Santana. Expect this to be the area where the Phillies devote the bulk of the $20 million or so they have to spend this off-season to, and also expect the Phillies to deal something from their minor league system to acquire pitching.
The Bullpen. Pencil in Brett Myers as the Phillies closer for 2008. It’s a job that he’s proven himself to be quite good at and it would give the Phillies the lights-out closer they desperate need and lacked for years. Setting up Myers are J.C. Romero, who needs to be re-signed, and Geoff Geary. Perhaps Ryan Madson can work his way back here. The other three slots in the Phillies bullpen are up for grabs. Look for the Phillies to spend some time and money to upgrade these slots.
The problem, as Pat Gillick has noted, is that pitching is at a premium in the major leagues and when you want to buy it off the open market (i.e., free agency), you tend to pay outrageous prices. It’s basic economics. Expect pitching to once again be at a premium in the off-season, and expect the Phillies to be forced to over-pay. Either in bringing free agents to town or in affecting a trade to secure help in the bullpen.
Third Base. Wes Helms was not the answer. He hit just five home runs and had a mere 39 RBI. He hit .198 with runners in scoring position. His On-Base Percentage was .297. Utility infielder (calling him “light-hitting” would imply that he hits something) Abraham Nunez isn’t the answer either, because the Phillies elected to not exercise their $2.5 million dollar option for him for 2008. The Phillies need someone who can play the hot-corner and provide some pop to the lineup. I wonder if Tadahito Iguchi, the Phillies acquisition from the White Sox, can do the job. He’s not a power-hitter – just a .138 ISO – but he’s a good contact hitter who has some speed and makes good decisions. After getting a fifth starter, this is where the Phillies will spend some dough. I wonder: Mike Lowell as a Phillie?
Who’ll be back. Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, Kyle Lohse, Adam Eaton, Brett Myers, J.C. Romero (hopefully), Geoff Geary, Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz, Tadahito Iguchi, Michael Bourn, Pat Burrell, Wes Helms. That’s basically sixteen of the Phillies twenty-five players right there. Notable is how young the core of the Phillies roster is: Cole Hamels is 23. Bourn is 24. Werth is 29. Kendrick is 23. Myers is 28. Victorino is 27. You get the idea.
What is really exciting about the 2008, 2009, 2010 Phillies is that the core of the team is 30 or younger and these guys are going to be around for years. If the Phillies can hold off the Braves and Mets, this could be a dynasty in the making, a team a lot like the mid-1990’s Cleveland Indians, which dominated their division with a young core of talent.
Who’s Gone. Abraham Nunez, Rod Barajas, Antonio Alfonseca, Jose Mesa, Jon Lieber, Freddy Garcia, Kyle Lohse. Lieber won’t be back despite pitching some strong performances in 2008. The team that signs him will be getting one heck of a pitcher, but that won’t be the Phillies. (The Mets?) Garcia, likewise, won’t be back because he can command millions on the open market place despite his arm injury last season. I see him in a Yankees uniform in 2008. Lohse is being represented by Scott Boras, so count on him leaving the Phillies and signing a mega-deal ($12-14 mil) for some team desperate for pitching. Nunez, the non-hitting utility infielder, is gone now that the Phillies won't exercise their option. The Phillies have also declined options on catcher Rod Barajas (4 Home Runs, 10 RBI), which is addition by subtraction as far as I am concerned.
On the bubble. Aaron Rowand. Will the Phillies re-sign him? Will they over-pay? My guess is that the Phillies will let Rowand walk rather than sign him to the $10 to $11 million a year he’ll command on the open market (Gary Matthews, Jr. inked a 5-year, $50 million deal last season, can Rowand be expected to ask for less?), and that’s not completely a bad thing. I’ll expand upon this next week a little, but Rowand has some flaws as a ballplayer. Sure, the fans and his teammates love his passion, fire and walk-through walls mentality. However, Rowand's got some flaws in his game. E.g., Rowand’s 47 walks (.069 BB/PA) is a rarity for his career. He’s a free-swinging hitter who rarely works counts, rarely draws walks and is the most consistent producer of outs on the Phillies roster after Jimmy Rollins, and he lacks Rollins speed on the base-paths. Rowand’s ability to get on base is predicated on his ability to get a hit, and players who are purely dedicated to hits at the plate tend to be inconsistent. Rowand had a good year at the plate – he hit .309, better than the .262 and .270 he hit in 2006 and 2005 – but that’s probably a fluke. Rowand’s BB/PA over the last few seasons is utterly abysmal: .040 in 2006, .050 in 2005, .056 in 2004 … And Rowand’s defensive skills have been a disappointment after he was so good manning center field for the White Sox in 2005. No … I see Shane Victorino or Michael Bourn as the Phillies starting center fielder on Opening Day, 2008.
Farm Hands. Lost in all of this talk is the Phillies farm system. They’ve got a lot of great talent sitting down in Ottawa and Reading and Clearwater and you can expect to see a lot of it up in Philadelphia in 2008. Mike Costanzo, who hit .270 with 27 Home Runs and 89 RBI in 2007 with the Reading Phillies, will probably being playing with the Lehigh Valley Ironpigs in 2008, the Phillies new Triple-A affiliate. A mid-season call up is a definite possibility. Carlos Carrasco, the Phillies spectacular pitcher who finished the season in Double-A Reading, cold head to Philadelphia by mid-season as well. Carrasco is the top prospect in the Phillies system and could wind up being their fifth starter ultimately. Costanzo, Carrasco, Josh Outman, Jason Donald, Adrian Cardenas, and Kyle Drabek are all potential minor-league trade bait for help on the mound.
These are all very preliminary thoughts. I’ll expand on some this week coming up a little.
Posting schedule:
Monday: Aaron Rowand
Tuesday: Will Johan Santana be a Phillie?
Wednesday: No Post
Thursday: Musings on Citizens Bank Ballpark
Friday: Chris Coste
Labels: Alfonseca, Bourn, Burrell, Eaton, Gordon, Hamels, Kenderick, Mesa, Moyer, Myers, Nunez, Pitching, Rollins, Romero, Rotation, Rowand, Victorino
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
X-Files, Part II
Today we’ll continue to look at former Phillies and what they are up to now. Today we are talking about 2005 alumni:
Jim Thome
Placido Polanco
Jason Michaels
Billy Wagner
Vicente Padilla
The Phillies as it turns out, let a lot of key (or formerly key) players walk during (Polanco) the 2005 campaign, but especially after. The interesting thing about the shifts in personnel is that, unlike the departures of Kevin Millwood and Eric Milton via free agency in 2004, the Phillies engineered their moves in 2005. They traded every player on the list above aside from Wagner. Let’s start with Jim Thome:
Dealt to the White Sox in exchange for Aaron Rowand, Thome was suddenly made expendable by Ryan Howard’s formidable 2005 campaign. About nine years younger and significantly cheaper, Ryan Howard became an attractive option for the Phillies at first base and gave the team the opportunity to shop Thome for help in center field. The team eagerly pulled the trigger on the deal, especially in light of Thome’s injury-plagued ’05 season (7 Home Runs, 30 RBI, .207 batting average in 59 games), to grab Aaron Rowand, the White Sox terrific center fielder.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). If you use ESPN’s version be advised that it is pitifully is out-of-date, however. James adjusted RC after the 2004 season ended.
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
Since joining the White Sox, Thome has largely regained his pre-’05 form. In 2006 he bombed 42 home runs and had 109 RBIs, which is basically what he had in 2004: 42 Home Runs, 105 RBIs. In many respects Thome’s ’06 campaign was much better than ’04: he hit better in the clutch (.203 BA/RISP in 2004 to .336 in 2006) and produced runs at a greater clip (7.0 Runs Created per 27 Outs in 2004 vs. 9.6 in 2006). No doubt being freed from having to play first base helped as Thome.
Remarkably, Thome might be doing a better job this season: his OBP is an ungodly .470. His RC/27 is a robust 10.7 … meaning a hypothetical team of nine Jim Thome’s would ring up 10.7 runs a game. Yikes.
In the long run, the Thome-Rowand deal probably helped the Phillies. As good as Jim Thome was with the White Sox, Ryan Howard was just as good. In the long run, Howard is going to give the Phillies six, seven, eight years (provided they can keep him) of service. And Rowand is having a terrific year at the plate as well this season, after a generally disappointing 2006. Rowand is either going to give the Phillies a terrific center fielder for a few more years to come or he’ll give the team valuable trade bait. As painful as it is to watch Jim Thome ring up the runs in Chicago, I doubt he’d be as productive with the Phillies (moving to the DH has been big for him…) and the team would have lost Ryan Howard.
The move that cost the Phillies in 2005 was Jason Michaels. Michaels was a terrific #4 outfielder for the team for years, consistently able to provide the Phillies with a nice bat off the bench and a strong defensive presence in the outfield. He played all three outfield slots well. He was the ideal guy.
Unfortunately the Phillies dealt him to the Cleveland Indians for Arthur Rhodes, a player who will almost certainly never play for the Phillies again and who, when he did, barely benefited the team: 0-5, 5.32 ERA in 2006. In exchange the Phillies gave up a talented player:
Michaels struggled in 2006: .326 OBP, down from .399 in 2005 and .364 in 2004 with the Phillies … .246 BA/RISP, down from .284 and .295 in ’04 and ’05 … 4.7 RC/27 in 2006, down from 5.8 and 6.4 … He’s rebounded significantly in 2007, raising his OBP to .341 and has hit five home runs. His BA/RISP is .379 this season and he’s creating runs at a 6.6 clip. Defensively, Michaels is doing well: his Zone Rating would rank third amongst left fielders if he qualified. He’s a solid fielder and hitter. The Phillies made a serious mistake letting him go.
Placido Polanco, whom the Phillies dealt to the Tigers in exchange for Robinson Tejada, is an interesting case. On one hand Polanco’s departure opened things up for Chase Utley to seize the starting job and become the best second baseman in baseball, however, Polanco would be welcome on the Phillies roster now at third base, where the team has a crying need for help. The versatile Polanco played third when he joined the Phillies after the Scott Rolen deal in 2003.
Polanco has been a consistently good performer in Detroit:
RC/27
2005: 7.6
2006: 5.4
2007: 7.8
What impresses me, and what the Phillies could use on their roster right now, is Polanco’s skill with runners on:
BA/RISP:
2005: .381
2006: .396
2007: .423
Polanco’s also a pretty good fielder too: in 540 innings he’s committed zero errors at second base. His fielding percentages in 2005 and 2006 were .993 and .989 with the Tigers. The solid hitting, the clutch bat, the strong fielding … Polanco would be a major upgrade over the Wes Helms / Abraham Nunez mess the Phillies have.
On the other hand, you have to say that this deal was a success for the Phillies. Sure, they didn’t get anything for Polanco in the long run (Tejada has … how should I say this politely? … Legal problems) but in allowing Polanco to leave they allowed Chase Utley to become the best second baseman in the game. Can’t argue with that …
Briefly, I’ll discuss Padilla and Wagner … The Phillies had little choice but to allow Billy Wagner to go. Wagner was clearly unimpressed with the direction the Phillies were on and the lure of playing in New York for the Mets was too much for him to ignore. As a Phillie Wagner was what the team needed after the Jose Mesa era: a lights-out closer who’d get a 1, 2, 3 ninth-inning night after night. As a Phillie Wagner saved 59 of 66 opportunities. As a Met, he’s converted on 55 of 61. Pretty similar. I haven’t noticed any decline in his skills:
K/9 BB/9
2004: 12.5 / 1.3 (as Phillie)
2005: 11.2 / 2.6 (ditto)
2006: 12.3 / 2.7 (as Met)
2007: 12.6 / 2.6 (ditto)
His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), on the other hand, is rising:
FIP:
2004: 2.28
2005: 2.56
2006: 2.87
2007: 3.20
The Phillies clearly miss Wagner now, with their merry-go-round of Tom Gordon, Brett Myers and Antonio Alfonseca. This defection has hurt the Phillies, but it was a decision that was purely out of their control.
The decision to deal Vicente Padilla is simply indefensible. Dealt to the Texas Rangers for Ricardo Rodriguez prior to the 2006 season, the Phillies promptly cut Rodriguez in Spring Training while Padilla went 15-10 with a 4.50 ERA. While Padilla is struggling this season (3-8, 6.57 ERA), this trade was still a blunder. The Phillies dealt away a player they had invested significant time and money developing for … nothing. Ouch.
Tomorrow, the 2006 X-Files.
An off-day for the Phillies today before they square up for a three-game series with the Cincinnati Reds, arguably the worst team in the majors right now. Sadly, the Phillies won't get to pick on Eric Milton, but they ought to cleanup on the Reds pitching otherwise. Kyle Kenderick makes the start for the Phillies tonight, his third career big league start.
Speaking of starting pitching, J.D.Durbin will make his MLB debut against the Mets this weekend during the double-header. Durbin is 2-4 with a 4.55 ERA this season. He's been almost entirely off my radar screen as a player, never really getting a mention as a top Phillies prospect, so I wonder how he'll do. In the long run, I suspect that the Phillies will move Brett Myers back into the rotation when he returns soon, as the Phillies don't want two rookies who started the season in the minors filling their rotation. It is just as well: Antonia Alfonseca is doing quite well as the team's closer these days.
(1) comments
Jim Thome
Placido Polanco
Jason Michaels
Billy Wagner
Vicente Padilla
The Phillies as it turns out, let a lot of key (or formerly key) players walk during (Polanco) the 2005 campaign, but especially after. The interesting thing about the shifts in personnel is that, unlike the departures of Kevin Millwood and Eric Milton via free agency in 2004, the Phillies engineered their moves in 2005. They traded every player on the list above aside from Wagner. Let’s start with Jim Thome:
Dealt to the White Sox in exchange for Aaron Rowand, Thome was suddenly made expendable by Ryan Howard’s formidable 2005 campaign. About nine years younger and significantly cheaper, Ryan Howard became an attractive option for the Phillies at first base and gave the team the opportunity to shop Thome for help in center field. The team eagerly pulled the trigger on the deal, especially in light of Thome’s injury-plagued ’05 season (7 Home Runs, 30 RBI, .207 batting average in 59 games), to grab Aaron Rowand, the White Sox terrific center fielder.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). If you use ESPN’s version be advised that it is pitifully is out-of-date, however. James adjusted RC after the 2004 season ended.
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
Since joining the White Sox, Thome has largely regained his pre-’05 form. In 2006 he bombed 42 home runs and had 109 RBIs, which is basically what he had in 2004: 42 Home Runs, 105 RBIs. In many respects Thome’s ’06 campaign was much better than ’04: he hit better in the clutch (.203 BA/RISP in 2004 to .336 in 2006) and produced runs at a greater clip (7.0 Runs Created per 27 Outs in 2004 vs. 9.6 in 2006). No doubt being freed from having to play first base helped as Thome.
Remarkably, Thome might be doing a better job this season: his OBP is an ungodly .470. His RC/27 is a robust 10.7 … meaning a hypothetical team of nine Jim Thome’s would ring up 10.7 runs a game. Yikes.
In the long run, the Thome-Rowand deal probably helped the Phillies. As good as Jim Thome was with the White Sox, Ryan Howard was just as good. In the long run, Howard is going to give the Phillies six, seven, eight years (provided they can keep him) of service. And Rowand is having a terrific year at the plate as well this season, after a generally disappointing 2006. Rowand is either going to give the Phillies a terrific center fielder for a few more years to come or he’ll give the team valuable trade bait. As painful as it is to watch Jim Thome ring up the runs in Chicago, I doubt he’d be as productive with the Phillies (moving to the DH has been big for him…) and the team would have lost Ryan Howard.
The move that cost the Phillies in 2005 was Jason Michaels. Michaels was a terrific #4 outfielder for the team for years, consistently able to provide the Phillies with a nice bat off the bench and a strong defensive presence in the outfield. He played all three outfield slots well. He was the ideal guy.
Unfortunately the Phillies dealt him to the Cleveland Indians for Arthur Rhodes, a player who will almost certainly never play for the Phillies again and who, when he did, barely benefited the team: 0-5, 5.32 ERA in 2006. In exchange the Phillies gave up a talented player:
Michaels struggled in 2006: .326 OBP, down from .399 in 2005 and .364 in 2004 with the Phillies … .246 BA/RISP, down from .284 and .295 in ’04 and ’05 … 4.7 RC/27 in 2006, down from 5.8 and 6.4 … He’s rebounded significantly in 2007, raising his OBP to .341 and has hit five home runs. His BA/RISP is .379 this season and he’s creating runs at a 6.6 clip. Defensively, Michaels is doing well: his Zone Rating would rank third amongst left fielders if he qualified. He’s a solid fielder and hitter. The Phillies made a serious mistake letting him go.
Placido Polanco, whom the Phillies dealt to the Tigers in exchange for Robinson Tejada, is an interesting case. On one hand Polanco’s departure opened things up for Chase Utley to seize the starting job and become the best second baseman in baseball, however, Polanco would be welcome on the Phillies roster now at third base, where the team has a crying need for help. The versatile Polanco played third when he joined the Phillies after the Scott Rolen deal in 2003.
Polanco has been a consistently good performer in Detroit:
RC/27
2005: 7.6
2006: 5.4
2007: 7.8
What impresses me, and what the Phillies could use on their roster right now, is Polanco’s skill with runners on:
BA/RISP:
2005: .381
2006: .396
2007: .423
Polanco’s also a pretty good fielder too: in 540 innings he’s committed zero errors at second base. His fielding percentages in 2005 and 2006 were .993 and .989 with the Tigers. The solid hitting, the clutch bat, the strong fielding … Polanco would be a major upgrade over the Wes Helms / Abraham Nunez mess the Phillies have.
On the other hand, you have to say that this deal was a success for the Phillies. Sure, they didn’t get anything for Polanco in the long run (Tejada has … how should I say this politely? … Legal problems) but in allowing Polanco to leave they allowed Chase Utley to become the best second baseman in the game. Can’t argue with that …
Briefly, I’ll discuss Padilla and Wagner … The Phillies had little choice but to allow Billy Wagner to go. Wagner was clearly unimpressed with the direction the Phillies were on and the lure of playing in New York for the Mets was too much for him to ignore. As a Phillie Wagner was what the team needed after the Jose Mesa era: a lights-out closer who’d get a 1, 2, 3 ninth-inning night after night. As a Phillie Wagner saved 59 of 66 opportunities. As a Met, he’s converted on 55 of 61. Pretty similar. I haven’t noticed any decline in his skills:
K/9 BB/9
2004: 12.5 / 1.3 (as Phillie)
2005: 11.2 / 2.6 (ditto)
2006: 12.3 / 2.7 (as Met)
2007: 12.6 / 2.6 (ditto)
His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), on the other hand, is rising:
FIP:
2004: 2.28
2005: 2.56
2006: 2.87
2007: 3.20
The Phillies clearly miss Wagner now, with their merry-go-round of Tom Gordon, Brett Myers and Antonio Alfonseca. This defection has hurt the Phillies, but it was a decision that was purely out of their control.
The decision to deal Vicente Padilla is simply indefensible. Dealt to the Texas Rangers for Ricardo Rodriguez prior to the 2006 season, the Phillies promptly cut Rodriguez in Spring Training while Padilla went 15-10 with a 4.50 ERA. While Padilla is struggling this season (3-8, 6.57 ERA), this trade was still a blunder. The Phillies dealt away a player they had invested significant time and money developing for … nothing. Ouch.
Tomorrow, the 2006 X-Files.
An off-day for the Phillies today before they square up for a three-game series with the Cincinnati Reds, arguably the worst team in the majors right now. Sadly, the Phillies won't get to pick on Eric Milton, but they ought to cleanup on the Reds pitching otherwise. Kyle Kenderick makes the start for the Phillies tonight, his third career big league start.
Speaking of starting pitching, J.D.Durbin will make his MLB debut against the Mets this weekend during the double-header. Durbin is 2-4 with a 4.55 ERA this season. He's been almost entirely off my radar screen as a player, never really getting a mention as a top Phillies prospect, so I wonder how he'll do. In the long run, I suspect that the Phillies will move Brett Myers back into the rotation when he returns soon, as the Phillies don't want two rookies who started the season in the minors filling their rotation. It is just as well: Antonia Alfonseca is doing quite well as the team's closer these days.
Labels: Alfonseca, Durbin, Kenderick, Michaels, Myers, Padilla, Polanco, Rhodes, Rowand, Thome, Wagner
Friday, April 06, 2007
Predictability
Predictably the Phillies season opened with the team being swept by the Atlanta Braves. Predictably the media is chortling over the highly touted Phillies stumbles, predictably resurrecting Jimmy Rollins claim that the Phillies are the team to beat in the N.L. East. Predictably the Phillies bullpen stumbled badly. Predictably Charlie Manuel made decisions that seemed sound but promptly blew up in his face. Predictably one of the Phillies major off-season acquisitions, Adam Eaton, was destroyed in his first start with the team.
Well, that just figures.
The ’07 Phillies opened the campaign with a 0-3 start to the Atlanta Braves. Yesterday’s game was a fiasco from start to end. Eaton went just four and two-thirds, surrendering eight runs (seven earned), on seven hits and four walks. Astonishingly, the bullpen actually successfully shut the braves down, holding them to a pair of hits and a walk while striking out nine Braves for the rest of the game. Expect to see a lot more of Antonio Alfonseca in the future after the struggles of Gordon and Madson in the first two games as Charlie Manuel searches for a solution.
As for Charlie Manuel, people will predictably assail his decision-making, asking why he chose to leave Brett Myers in on Opening Day to face Edgar Renteria. I wouldn’t fault Manuel at all, he’s a smart guy who made a solid decision on opening day: your pitcher is virtually unhittable, so why not leave him in and see what he can do against a light-hitting shortstop?
The weakness of the 2007 Phillies lies in their porous bullpen. That’s pretty apparent, so I’d expect to see Pat Gillick move immediately to shore up this weak point. Yesterday, for example, they acquired minor-leaguer Francisco Rosario from the Toronto Blue Jays for cash. Perhaps Gillick will try to deal Aaron Rowand to the Padres again for Scott Linebrick?
So the Phillies are off to an 0-3 start. You can’t put too much stock into the opening series of the season. The Pittsburgh Pirates are 3-0 right now and does anyone expect them to win the N.L. Central? Take a deep breath and relax Phillies fans. The season is a marathon, not a sprint.
So what is next for the Red Pinstripes? A trip to Florida to duel with the Marlins, themselves 2-1. Going tonight for the Phillies is Jamie Moyer, exactly the tonic the Phillies need, a veteran pitcher who will be unfazed by the yelling and screaming and will concentrate on what the Phillies really need: a win.
Have a nice weekend, everyone!
(2) comments
Well, that just figures.
The ’07 Phillies opened the campaign with a 0-3 start to the Atlanta Braves. Yesterday’s game was a fiasco from start to end. Eaton went just four and two-thirds, surrendering eight runs (seven earned), on seven hits and four walks. Astonishingly, the bullpen actually successfully shut the braves down, holding them to a pair of hits and a walk while striking out nine Braves for the rest of the game. Expect to see a lot more of Antonio Alfonseca in the future after the struggles of Gordon and Madson in the first two games as Charlie Manuel searches for a solution.
As for Charlie Manuel, people will predictably assail his decision-making, asking why he chose to leave Brett Myers in on Opening Day to face Edgar Renteria. I wouldn’t fault Manuel at all, he’s a smart guy who made a solid decision on opening day: your pitcher is virtually unhittable, so why not leave him in and see what he can do against a light-hitting shortstop?
The weakness of the 2007 Phillies lies in their porous bullpen. That’s pretty apparent, so I’d expect to see Pat Gillick move immediately to shore up this weak point. Yesterday, for example, they acquired minor-leaguer Francisco Rosario from the Toronto Blue Jays for cash. Perhaps Gillick will try to deal Aaron Rowand to the Padres again for Scott Linebrick?
So the Phillies are off to an 0-3 start. You can’t put too much stock into the opening series of the season. The Pittsburgh Pirates are 3-0 right now and does anyone expect them to win the N.L. Central? Take a deep breath and relax Phillies fans. The season is a marathon, not a sprint.
So what is next for the Red Pinstripes? A trip to Florida to duel with the Marlins, themselves 2-1. Going tonight for the Phillies is Jamie Moyer, exactly the tonic the Phillies need, a veteran pitcher who will be unfazed by the yelling and screaming and will concentrate on what the Phillies really need: a win.
Have a nice weekend, everyone!
Labels: Alfonseca, Managing, Moyer, Rowand
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Antonio Alfonseca
As some of you might have noticed, I haven’t been posting as often as I typically do. Winter weather and job stresses have kept me a little behind the curve, added in with the fact that I’ve already discussed, ad naseum, many of the major topics of the upcoming season. In the lead-up to the new season I’ll be posting 3-4 times a week instead of the typical 5 days a week, and I’ll have a consolidated Season Preview post that I’ll put up the week before the season kicks off and leave there for a week without any follow-ups.
Today’s topic … and this will be a bigger focus of mine in the coming days … is the bullpen and the Phillies new acquisition, Antonio Alfonseca.
A ten-year veteran of the MLB, Alfonseca was once a top-flight closer but is currently looking to rehab his career with the Phillies. If successful I am sure he’ll parlay his success into a long-term deal, but in the here and now his career is sort of on the line.
Alfonseca broke into the majors during the Marlins historic World Series victory in 1997. For the next seven seasons Alfonseca got a lot of work, pitching 60+ innings a season, good work for a reliever. In 1998 he saved eight of fourteen chances for the historically bad Marlins, and then saved 21 of 25 the next season. From 2000-2002 he was a full-time closer. In 2000 he saved forty-five of forty-nine chances for the Marlins. His 45 saves ranked him first in the N.L. The next season he saved 28 of 34 chances for the marlins before leaving for the Cubs in 2002.
His career took an ill turn in Chicago. He blew nine of his twenty-eight save opportunities in 2002 and saw his ERA spike. Since 2002 he hasn’t had a single save, returning to the role of set-up man. Since ’02 he’s blown seven save chances. His ERA has spiked:
1999: 3.24
2000: 4.24
2001: 3.06
2002: 4.00
His he struggled in Chicago:
2003: 5.83
2004: 2.57
2005: 4.94
2006: 5.63
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
Alfonseca has bounced from team-to-team since. He spent ’03 with the Cubs, playing on the team that blew the NLCS in historic fashion to his old team, the marlins. The next season he rebounded and posted a nice ERA as the Braves set-up guy (recording a career-high 13 holds), but his return to the Marlins didn’t work out (1-1, two blown saves, 4.94 ERA). Then he played for the Rangers last season. The numbers aren’t encouraging:
HR/9: 1.69
BB/9: 3.93
K/9: 2.81
ERA: 5.63
FIP: 6.39
I haven’t a clue what sort of numbers he’ll post with the Phillies but I am not encouraged. From where I sit, he’s got lots of issues with his pitching (when you issue seven walks to five strikeouts, you are really struggling as a pitcher), and isn’t a good bet to return to his old 1999-2002 form. On the other hand, if he rebounds than the Phillies got to steal a great set-up guy and potential fill-in closer for next to nothing. I guess we'll see.
(2) comments
Today’s topic … and this will be a bigger focus of mine in the coming days … is the bullpen and the Phillies new acquisition, Antonio Alfonseca.
A ten-year veteran of the MLB, Alfonseca was once a top-flight closer but is currently looking to rehab his career with the Phillies. If successful I am sure he’ll parlay his success into a long-term deal, but in the here and now his career is sort of on the line.
Alfonseca broke into the majors during the Marlins historic World Series victory in 1997. For the next seven seasons Alfonseca got a lot of work, pitching 60+ innings a season, good work for a reliever. In 1998 he saved eight of fourteen chances for the historically bad Marlins, and then saved 21 of 25 the next season. From 2000-2002 he was a full-time closer. In 2000 he saved forty-five of forty-nine chances for the Marlins. His 45 saves ranked him first in the N.L. The next season he saved 28 of 34 chances for the marlins before leaving for the Cubs in 2002.
His career took an ill turn in Chicago. He blew nine of his twenty-eight save opportunities in 2002 and saw his ERA spike. Since 2002 he hasn’t had a single save, returning to the role of set-up man. Since ’02 he’s blown seven save chances. His ERA has spiked:
1999: 3.24
2000: 4.24
2001: 3.06
2002: 4.00
His he struggled in Chicago:
2003: 5.83
2004: 2.57
2005: 4.94
2006: 5.63
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
ERA – Earned Run Average: (Earned Runs * 9) / IP = ERA
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP) + League Factor Evaluates a pitching by how he would have done with an average defense behind him by keeping track of things that a pitcher can control (walks, strikeouts, home runs allowed) as opposed to things he cannot (hits allowed, runs allowed).
HR/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings: (HR * 9) / IP
K/9 – Strikeouts per nine innings: (K * 9) / IP
BB/9 – Walks per nine innings: (BB * 9) / IP
Alfonseca has bounced from team-to-team since. He spent ’03 with the Cubs, playing on the team that blew the NLCS in historic fashion to his old team, the marlins. The next season he rebounded and posted a nice ERA as the Braves set-up guy (recording a career-high 13 holds), but his return to the Marlins didn’t work out (1-1, two blown saves, 4.94 ERA). Then he played for the Rangers last season. The numbers aren’t encouraging:
HR/9: 1.69
BB/9: 3.93
K/9: 2.81
ERA: 5.63
FIP: 6.39
I haven’t a clue what sort of numbers he’ll post with the Phillies but I am not encouraged. From where I sit, he’s got lots of issues with his pitching (when you issue seven walks to five strikeouts, you are really struggling as a pitcher), and isn’t a good bet to return to his old 1999-2002 form. On the other hand, if he rebounds than the Phillies got to steal a great set-up guy and potential fill-in closer for next to nothing. I guess we'll see.
Labels: Alfonseca, Bullpen, Pitching
