A CITIZEN'S BLOG

This Phillies have had a lot of luck over the last few seasons finding rookies to step up and make contributions to the team in unexpected ways. Ryan Howard stepped into the breach and became the 2005 Rookie of the Year. Chris Coste came out of nowhere – actually North Dakota – to make the majors after a decade in the minor leagues and gave the Phillies some timely hitting down the stretch. Michael Bourn? His performance last season is legendary around A Citizens Blog: 18 of 19 stolen bases.

So who is the next Michael Bourn? Two candidates emerge:

Chris Roberson. I already talked about Roberson replacing Bourn a few weeks ago. Roberson and Bourn are very similar players in many respects. Roberson, the Phillies first-round pick in the 2001 Draft, was likely to make the Phillies roster as the Phils fifth outfielder until Bourn impressed the Phillies brass enough they decided to take a chance on him. Now with Bourn gone, Roberson has his chance back.

Roberson, currently playing with the Naranjeros de Hermosillo (the Hermosillo Oranges? – my Spanish is a little rusty) in the Winter Liga Mexicana del Pacifico (Mexican Winter League) has a chance of approaching Bourn’s output. He’s fast – 19 steals in 28 tries with Triple-A Ottawa in 2007, and 25 steals in 34 tries with Triple-A Scranton in 2006 – and swings a pretty good bat: .349 OBP in ’06, .313 OBP in ’07.

Bonus points for Roberson: he’s a native of Oakland, California, just like Jimmy Rollins.

The other candidate for Bourn-status is Greg Golson, the Phillies first-round pick in the 2004 Draft. Golson is an interesting case if he actually manages to make it to Philadelphia. Basically, he has no concept about working counts and drawing walks, and would therefore have to be utilized exclusively as a defensive replacement / pinch-runner. While Golson hit .285 with the Clearwater Threshers in 2007, his OBP was just .322. He managed to draw just 21 walks and struck-out 124 times.

Promoted to Double-A Reading, Golson struck-out 49 times in 153 At-Bats. Okay, that’s bad. Even worse – he managed to draw just two walks. Yes, he drew two walks in 37 games and struck-out 49 times. That’s atrocious and a virtual guarantee that Golson won’t make it in the majors. His track-record is that he’s a free-swinger. Golson struck-out 107 times with Single-A Lakewood in 2006, walking just 19 times. Golson also struck-out 53 times with Clearwater and walked 11 times in 2006.

The pity is that Golson’s got tools. In 2006 he stole thirty bases in forty tries, hit six triples and thirteen home runs. In 2007 he took thirty of thirty-eight bases, hit 15 home runs and five triples. Were it not for his chronic inability to get on base consistently, Golson would be a good bet to make the Phillies roster later in the season. Is there hope for Golson? Sure, he’s stolen all eight of the bases he’s tried for and he’s hit three triples thus far in the Arizona Winter League. Good. He’s also drawn eight walks in 27 games! Cutting that K/BB ratio down from 5-to-1 to 3-to-1 isn’t great news, but it is improvement.

If I had to place money on Roberson or Golson, I'd put it on Roberson, who might benefit more from the advice and counsel of First Base coach Davey Lopes and becomes an impressive base-stealing threat himself. I'm sure Roberson won't go 18 for 19 in steals next season, but he'll do well and might be a big help for the Phillies in 2008.

Season in Review is tentatively scheduled for publishing on Thursday or Friday. Stay Tuned.

Labels: Base-Stealing, Bourn, Golson, Roberson, Speed

With the trade of Michael Bourn to the Astros as part of the Brad Lidge deal and with Aaron Rowand’s near-certain departure in free agency, the Phillies 2008 Outfield is going to look very different than it did in 2007. Over in Left Field will be Pat Burrell once more, while Shane Victorino will probably keep his current slot in Right Field because of his terrific arm. Jayson Werth, the talented former Dodger who hit .298 with 8 home runs and 49 RBI in limited action in 2007, will likely get the Center Field slot. Greg Dobbs, who had 55 RBI in equally limited playing time in 2007, seems slated to be the Phillies fourth outfielder and primary pinch-hitting weapon.

The Phillies need a new reserve outfielder to back Dobbs, who played 86 games in the infield in 2007 and seems likely to get significant time there in 2008 as well. The speedy Bourn filled the role to a T, entering numerous games as a defensive substitution and being a pinch runner 35 times. Bourn’s speed was electrifying.

Enter the Phillies newest speed man, Chris Roberson.

Roberson, the Phillies ninth-round selection in the 2001 Draft, seemed destined to be the Phillies fifth outfielder in 2007, but Charlie Manuel and the Phillies high command gave the job to Bourn in a surprise move. Roberson returned to Ottawa to play for the Lynx, the Phillies Triple-A affiliate in the International League. Roberson played well: hitting .266 (.313 OBP), scoring 64 runs with 48 RBI in 113 games. Roberson drew 31 walks, hit 21 doubles and 3 triples, and stole 19 of 28 bases. Needing help with Bourn and Victorino down with injuries, the Phillies recalled Roberson and utilized him for several games.

With Bourn gone, it seems likely that Roberson will get some playing time in 2008. The question is: Can Chris Roberson be Michael Bourn?

Let’s look at Bourn’s resume: in 2006 he played with the Phillies Double-A and Triple-A affiliates. In Double-A Reading, Bourn had a .350 OBP and stole 30 of 34 bases he attempted. In Triple-A Scranton (the Phillies previous Triple-A affiliate), Bourn had a .368 OBP and stole 15 of 16 bases. When he joined the Phillies in 2007, Bourn pretty much held to that line of performance, with a .348 OBP and 18 of 19 steals.

Roberson’s performance in the minors hasn’t been so good. In contrast to Bourn in 2006, Roberson’s Triple-A performance in 2007 was fifty-five points lower and his stolen base success rate was much lower: 68% to 94%. Roberson did better in 2006 with Scranton: hitting .292 (.349 OBP) and stealing 25 of 34 bases (73%).

It seems to me, looking at Roberson’s minor league stats, that he used to run more before the Phillies minor league instructors put a stop to it. In 2005, with the Reading Phillies, he stole 34 of 48 bases. In 2004, with the Clearwater Threshers, he stole 16 of 28 bases. In 2003, as a member of the Lakewood Blue Claws, he stole 59 of 75 bases. In 2002, as a member of the Batavia Muckdogs, he stole 17 of 25 bases. His steal rate has consistently been about 70-75% and his OBP has been a solid .350 - .360. Those are good stats and auger well for his performance in 2008.

Davey Lopes, the Phillies first base coach and designated speed instructor, will no doubt work with Roberson in 2008 Spring Training and develop his technique. Perhaps Chris Roberson won’t achieve the same number of wow plays that Bourn did in 2007, but he’ll be a solid runner and will give the Phillies another terrific threat to take second base.

Labels: Base-Stealing, Bourn, Outfield, Roberson

Labels: Base-Stealing, Roberson

With the trading deadline past, I have a couple of thoughts …

… Generally speaking the Phillies made some good moves at the deadline. While I hate sending Matt Maloney to the Reds for Kyle Lohse, the team did a nice job acquiring Tadahito Iguchi from the White Sox and Julio Mateo from the Mariners. Iguchi is a good hitter who can play defense and is a nice stopgap for Chase Utley being injured. When Utley returns, Iguchi will make a nice bench replacement.

Mateo has barely pitched in 2007, but he has a good track-record on the field. In 2006 he went 9-4 with a 4.14 ERA as the Mariners set-up man. You can’t argue with those results. The best part about the deals for Mateo and Igushi are that the Phillies really didn’t surrender a darn thing to get either of them. Aside from losing Maloney, the Phillies didn’t surrender a single plum prospect.

… Aaron Rowand is still a Phillie. I honestly thought he’d be traded, but either the injuries to Bourn and Victorino killed a deal or the Phillies felt that keeping him for the season and letting him walk at the end – I believe they get a first-round pick in the 2008 Draft for him – was the better call. Probably the right decision, given the message that trading him would have sent to the team.

… You could make an All-Star team out of the guys who have been on the Phillies DL in 2007: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Brett Myers, Tom Gordon, Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn, Jon Lieber, Jayson Werth. The injuries to Victorino and Bourn sting. That is a lot of speed gone from the lineup right there: specifically, fifty steals in fifty-four attempts (Victorino: 32 in 35 tries, Bourn: 18 in 19 tries). Will the Phillies lack of speed hurt in the coming days with games against the Cubs and Brewers? Chris Roberson has been recalled: will he get a chance to run?

…Much has been made of the Braves decision to acquire Mark Teixeira from the Rangers along with Octavio Dotel. I’m not sure that the braves did that much to strength themselves. Dotel is a capable closer and Teixeira will supply some pop to their lineup, but the Braves mortgaged a little of their future in the deal and seem a little desperate. I think the Braves real problem is that they aren’t good enough defensively to help their pitching staff and adding Dotel and Teixeira doesn’t help.

… The Red Sox made some nice deals, adding Eric Gagne was huge. What is interesting to me was how quiet the Yankees were at the deadline. Are they conceding defeat to the Red Sox?

…Truly the Pittsburgh Pirates haven’t a clue what they are doing. Why are earth are they trading for an aging pitcher with a massive salary when the team is young and plays in a small market with a tiny payroll? I haven’t a clue. This is incompetence.

Tomorrow, I’ll finally get around to talking about the Williamsport Crosscutters. I promise.

Labels: Bourn, Braves, Iguchi, Roberson, Rowand, Trade Deadline, Victorino

Last year I promised to devote more time in the future to discussing the Phillies farm system. Well, a little less than a month into the year I thought that I might take a moment and talk a little about the Ottawa Lynx.

As I noted a few months ago, the Ottawa Lynx are the Phillies new Triple-A affiliate, replacing the Scranton Red Barons in the International League (IL), the fourteen team Triple-A league that services MLB teams like the Yankees (now the Red Barons parent team), and other teams like the Pawtucket Red Sox, the Richmond Braves, and the Toledo Mud Hens (the Detroit Tigers Triple-A team). The Phillies presence in Canada is temporary, as the Lynx are slated to move south of the border to Allentown and become the Allentown Iron Pigs in 2008.

There’s a lot of pathos and drama surrounding the minors, which makes for interesting subject matter. Bull Durham, one of the best movies about baseball ever made, deals with players trying to make their way out of the Carolina League and into the big time. A lot of players make their way to Triple-A and flame out, never to achieve their golden dream of becoming a major league baseball player. Others get their taste of glory and fall back to earth, desperately trying to claw their way back into the majors. Triple-A is a pretty tough place to be. Close, but not yet.

A word about stats … It is difficult to evaluate stats from the minor leagues and especially with the low-level minor leaguers. For players in Rookie League or Short Season Single-A ball, power is difficult to show at that level. A “power hitter” of the future might have three or four home runs over the course of a season. Chase Utley, for example, hit two home runs in forty games in Single-A Batavia in 2000. Triple-A stats approximate major league stats a little better, but they are still a little off.

Many of the names on the Lynx roster are familiar to Phillies fans … Chris Roberson, Danny Sandoval, Chris Coste, Zach Segovia, Fabo Castro, Eude Brito, etc. In the case of players like Sandoval, Coste and Roberson, you worry that they fall into the category of players who got to the majors and never returned. In Coste’s case, this is particularly tragic given that Coste has been fighting and clawing his way towards the majors for years and years.

As I write this, the Lynx have been on a roll, having won seven of their last eight games. After defeating Syracuse 4-3 on April 14th, the Lynx were snowed out of their game on April 15th, and then took three games against Charlotte before falling to Gavin Floyd – remember him? – on April 20th by a score of 3-1. The Lynx responded by shelling the Red Barons 17-4 the next day, an impressive rout that saw the Lynx rally from a 3-0 first inning deficit by scoring six runs in the bottom of the first. The Lynx went on to outscore the Red Barons 17-1 after they got their three runs to start the game. The Lynx have two more games against the Red Barons, tonight and tomorrow at 7PM.

At the moment the Lynx are 8-6 and sit in third place in the IL’s Northern Division, just two games behind the Rochester Red Wings, the Baltimore Orioles affiliate. The Red Barons, by the way, are 7-10 and sit four and a half games out of first place.

Let’s discuss a few players of note …

Chris Coste. Coste became a favorite of bloggers and myself with his exceptional story in 2006. The thirty-three year-old Coste, a native of Fargo, North Dakota, had spent years and years in the minors attempting to claw his way into the show. He finally got his chance in 2006 when the Phillies dealt the light-hitting Sal Fasano to the Yankees and watched Mike Lieberthal spend much of the season on the D.L. Carlos Ruiz and Coste were brought in to split the catching duties and both turned in spectacular performances. As a Phillie, Coste hit .328 (.376 OBP), with seven home runs and 32 RBIs in just 65 games. What made this performance all the more impressive was the fact that Coste had hit .177 in Scranton before coming up to the majors, including two home runs and fourteen RBIs in 39 games played. Not too shabby.

The Phillies decision to bring in Rod Barajas and award Ruiz the backup job meant that Coste was the odd man out. The 34-year old from the plains of middle America was sent back up to the frigid north to play with the Lynx. At the moment Coste is playing alright primarily as the Lynx DH and occasional catcher. He’s hitting .225 (.340 OBP), with zero home runs and three doubles.

Chris Roberson. I’ll state that I am stunned so see Roberson in a Lynx uniform in 2007. After journeying up to the majors to play with the Phillies last season, I was certain that the Phillies would award the fifth outfielder job to Roberson, who pinch-hit and, more importantly, pinch-run numerous times in 2006 for the Phillies. The Phillies decision to make Michael Bourn the #5 outfielder was a shock to me. Expect to see Bourn get a lot of time substituting for Pat Burrell in left field and occasionally hitting for the Phillies.

Roberson, meanwhile, is back to the minors. He’s not exactly proving the Phillies were wrong keeping him in the minors either. He’s hitting .207 (.262 OBP) with two doubles and a triple. His .537 OPS is worst on the team.

The Pitchers … Brian Mazone (2-1, 1.90 ERA) and J.A. Happ (1-0, 1.08 ERA) are both off to great starts this season with the Lynx. Zach Segovia (0-2, 4.85 ERA) appears to be a little rattled after his disastrous start against the Florida Marlins where he surrendered five runs in five innings of work. The Phillies might want to keep some of their pitchers in the minors and not expose them to being shelled in MLB games until a later date.

It seems like, for all of the struggles of the Phillies MLB staff, there are a lot of talented arms in the Phillies system. Happ, Mazone and Segovia in Ottawa, Matthew Maloney with the Reading Phillies, Josh Outman, Andrew Carpenter and Carlos Carrasco in Clearwater, and Kyle Drabek in Lakewood with the Blue Claws. It will be interesting to see if those guys will transform the Phillies into a pitching powerhouse in 2009, 2010 and beyond.

Labels: Coste, Minors, Roberson

Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter.

-Dave Berry

Speed in baseball has been on my mind a lot these days. The Phillies have lived and breathed the long ball in recent years and appear – partly thanks to the presence of new first base coach Davey Lopes – to be emphasizing speed in their training and pre-season strategy these days. This isn’t a bad development in my judgment, as long as the Phillies don’t become the Anaheim Angels, because the Phillies probably ought to diversify their offensive philosophy a little. Few teams can get away playing exclusively small ball and win, and few teams can simply play station-to-station baseball expect to do the same. According to Steve Boros, the Oakland A’s manager in ‘82, the key to winning isn’t just base-stealing or just hitting home runs: “You can’t win with only stolen bases. Few teams win with only power, because they eventually can be pitched to. The great modern teams [Big Red Machine, mid-‘70’s A’s] had a blend of speed and power.” Diversity. Teams without at least some diversity will get into trouble because they can't threaten the opposition at either aspect of the game.

The Phillies will have a nice blend of speed and power in 2007. They are coming off of a season where they were third in the National League in Home Runs with 216 and ranked eighth in stolen bases with 92. The Phillies don’t utilize the stolen base as often as some teams, but they are faster than your average squad of slow-footed sluggers. The Atlanta Braves, for example, led the N.L. in home runs with 222 and stole just 52 bases, worst in the N.L. No surprise then that the Braves were never seriously in the playoff race.

Even with Bobby Abreu (20 steals in 24 attempts) wearing the blue pinstripes instead of the red, the 2007 Phillies have a lot of speed to burn. Specifically, they have six players – three starters and three bench players – who will challenge the arms of defenders in the field. First … a word about what I mean about “speed”. I categorize two plays as being "speed" plays: the stolen base and the triple. The steal is obvious – a player has to cover ninety feet while the ball is being delivered to home and beat out the throw from the catcher. This is a play that Mark McGwire did not excel at. The triple is also a speed play as well because a player has to cover 3/4 of the field while the ball is in play. I don’t consider the double a display of speed because many players can cover the distance without any trouble if they drive the ball hard enough. The triple, that extra ninety feet of distance, is the mark of a fast, fast player.

The Phillies fastest player in lead-off hitter Jimmy Rollins, who stole 36 bases in 40 tries in 2006. Rollins is a real speedster, having taken 207 bases in 259 attempts in his career. His 36 steals were ninth in the N.L. in 2006. Rollins also hit nine triples, which was good for ninth in the N.L. Rollins has 61 career triples and has led the N.L. in three-baggers three times: ’01, ’02 & ’04. That aggressive speed on the bases is what makes Rollins the Phillies best speed threat.

But will Rollins still be stealing bases with frequency in 2007? The team has floated the possibility of batting Rollins fifth in the order to provide support for Ryan Howard. I am not sure that is the best of options, but having a player with Rollins unique blend of power and speed that low in the lineup would lengthen the Phillies lineup and give some options for the team, e.g., having Rollins steal a base to give the Phillies a runner in scoring position for Pat Burrell and Aaron Rowand and to prevent the double play. However, I am opposed to the move because J.Roll is more valuable as a lead-off hitter. I expect Rollins to try for 50-60 steals in 2007.

Expect to see Chase Utley run a little more as well. Utley might be the Phillies most complete player, hitting 32 home runs, 40 doubles and stealing 15 bases along with hitting four triples. He’s quick, he hits hard and he plays – like Jimmy Rollins at shortstop – a tough defensive position: second base. It is astonishing that the Phillies have a middle infield that features good defensive players with both speed and power to their game.

Finally, we come to Shane Victorino. Victorino is an interesting player, probably the Phillies best defensive outfielder, and could be a major speed threat in 2007. Victorino attempted seven steals and was successful just four times, not a good percentage. However, Victorino also hit eight triples. I think he’s got a lot of speed and talent. Expect to see Victorino hit second (or perhaps first if the Phillies move Rollins to fifth in the lineup) and expect to see him try 30 or so steals in 2007.

Speed from the Bench: The Phillies seem to be set with Danny Sandoval and Chris Roberson to come off the bench to help out in the infield and outfield respectively, while Michael Bourn could (and should) get some playing time. I am wary about rehashing ground that I’ve already covered with my post on Bourn vs. Roberson, but I’ll have a few points to make …

Michael Bourn has a lot of speed and I would be very, very interested to see how he’d do if he got some playing time. As a Reading Phillie and Scranton Red Baron he got a lot of playing time and displayed speed to burn. Bourn got 87 hits as a Reading Phillie. Fifteen went for extra-bases and six of those were triples. As a Red Baron he got 43 hits, thirteen for extra-bases and seven were triples. Total, thirteen of Bourn’s twenty-eight extra-base hits were three-baggers, and 10% of Bourn’s hits were triples (13 of 130).

On those mundane occasions where he only drew a walk, Bourn was still looking to test the defense with a steal. He attempted fifty steals in 2005 and 2006, going roughly 1/3 of the chances he had to do so:

Times on Base* / Attempted Steals
Scranton (’06): 55 / 16
Reading (’06): 113 / 34
Reading (’05): 185 / 50

* defined as singles, doubles and walks. Naturally, there were probably occasions where Bourn drew a walk or hit a single and second base was closed. And stealing third is an atypical play in baseball.

Roberson and Sandoval used to incorporate speed into their game, but not any more. Sandoval, who will turn 28 this year, has been trying to break into the majors for years and finally did it in 2006.

Sandoval got around, starting the year in Reading (Double-A), then moving to Scranton (Triple-A), playing in 28 games for the Phillies, and then traveling in Venezuela to play in the Venezuelan Winter League. I wouldn’t categorize his speed numbers as being particularly good: with the Reading Phillies and Scranton Red Barons he attempted a total of four steals, despite having been on base 109 times. Only one of his 97 hits was a triple. As a Phillie he had 8 hits in 38 At-Bats, but just a double as his sole extra-base hit and without any steals. In Winter League ball with Pastora de los Llanos, Sandoval tried to run more. He was on base 54 times and attempted nine steals. Unfortunately he was successful just five times. He also failed to hit a triple.

Base-stealing had once been a vital part of Sandoval’s game: in 2005 with the Red Barons he had tried to steal 22 times, but had been caught 11 times. I suspect those struggles compelled either Sandoval or the Phillies minor league instructors to curtail his running on the bases.

I’ll try not to rehash any old points I made about Roberson, but he doesn’t really take advantage of his speed the way that Bourn does. Roberson was on-base 103 times with the Red Barons and attempted 34 steals. Not bad, and comparable to what Bourn did. Roberson only had two triples and 14 doubles in 2006. What it tells me is that Roberson is a more timid runner than Bourn, who tried to stretch doubles into triples with far more frequency. Like Sandoval, Roberson played some Winter League ball, playing in the Mexican League with Naranjeros de Hermosillo where he only hit one triple and attempted nineteen steals in 94 times on base. His efforts at base-stealing were somewhat for naught, as he was caught nine times in nineteen tries.

His efforts at being quick on the base-paths used to be there a little more: in 2005 he tried 48 steals after having been on base 189 times. He hit eight triples in Reading, but that is much less impressive when you realize that he did that while getting 172 hits and where 47 for extra-bases. Roberson is fast, but just not as fast as Bourn.

So there are my thoughts on speed. Expect to see the Phillies get more aggressive on the bases, trying to stretch some doubles into triples and trying to challenge the arms of catchers more by stealing bases.

Mind you this base-stealing strategy isn't one that I am enamored of. Base-stealing runs counter to the central tenents of sabremetrics theory: when teams have a runner on first with no outs, they can expect to score .9227 runs in an inning. If that runner successfully steals second, their run scoring probability rises to 1.1629. If that runner is caught, their run probability drops to .2877. In other words, a successful steal makes you just 26% more likely to score a run, while being caught stealing makes you 69% less likely. This is why I am skeptical that teams like the Rockies, the Dodgers or the Angels can really be successful in the long-term employing this small ball approach. I am open-minded enough to agree that diversity on offense can only help the Phillies and I am willing to say that the Phillies should run more, stretch more doubles into triples, try and take that extra base with a steal. Just so long as the Phillies don’t forget that their identity is the power offense. Doubles. Home Runs. Walks.

Let’s see what the Phillies do.

Labels: Base-Stealing, Bourn, Roberson, Rollins, Sandoval, Speed, Utley, Victorino

Now that Spring Training is finally upon us, we can start to talk about training camp battles between veterans fighting to keep their jobs and rookies trying to break their way into the lineup. The Phillies have a few battles of note, specifically Chris Coste’s efforts to remain on the Phillies roster, efforts that seem increasingly futile given management’s lack of interest in keeping Coste on the team. There are a few battles in the bullpen as well, but today I want to focus on another interesting battle I see shaping up between Chris Roberson and Michael Bourn over the Phillies fifth outfielder position. The Phillies will probably award Roberson the job, but I want to argue that Michael Bourn would do the job better.

Let’s start with the basics … Roberson ended the 2006 season with the Phillies, frequently appearing as a pinch-runner or a pinch-hitter for the Phillies. Roberson played before that in Triple-A Scranton as a part of the Red Barons. Roberson went to Mexico to play in winter league ball with the Naranjeros de Hermosillo, where he played somewhat well. (More on that later.) Meanwhile, Bourn moved fast, starting the season in Double-A ball before moving on to Scranton and closing out the ’06 campaign in Philadelphia with the Phillies. Roberson is 27 and was the Phillies ninth-round pick in the ’01 Draft. Bourn is 24 and is the Phillies fourth-round pick in the ’03 Draft.

With the Phillies set to feature Shane Victorino, Aaron Rowand and Pat Burrell with the versatile Jayson Werth as the fourth outfielder, the Phillies need to add a fifth outfielder to the mix. The competition seems to be between Roberson and Bourn for that spot with Roberson being seen as having the inside track due to his greater experience. I submit that would be a mistake. Bourn would be a superior player.

Roberson has a lot going for him: he played decently as a Phillie, successfully stealing all three bases he attempted in 2006. Roberson didn’t display a lot of promise at the plate however. I would worry about a player who hit .195 and didn’t draw a walk in 41 At-Bats. As a Red Baron he hit .292 (.248 GPA, .074 ISO), getting 83 hits in 284 At-Bats. He stole 25 of the 34 bases he attempted. Similarly, Roberson displayed an inability to draw a walk in Scranton, getting just 23 free passes while striking out 57 times.

Roberson decided to refine his skills in the Mexican League and hit .277. Impressively, and perhaps this heralds a refinement of his game, Roberson drew 36 walks and struck-out only 37 times. Disturbingly he was caught nine of the nineteen times he tried to steal.

Bourn, however, played even more sparingly than Roberson, going one-for-eight with the Phillies and getting caught two of his three steal attempts. Bourn displayed tremendous speed with Reading and Scranton, an aspect of Roberson’s game that he seems to be phasing out. Bourn successfully stole 45 of the 50 bases he attempted, including fifteen of sixteen (94%) with the Red Barons. Bourn hit well in Scranton (.272 GPA, .145 ISO) and displayed a great affinity for drawing walks than Roberson.

Interestingly, on the issue of speed, Bourn and Roberson both played in Reading in 2005 and posted similar speed stats … Bourn succeeded on 38 of 50 tries, and hit eight triples, while Roberson stole 34 of 48 bases and also hit eight triples.

Defensively, I’d give a slight edge to Bourn, who rates a little better playing outfield for the Red Barons than Roberson did. According to Minor League Baseball Splits, Roberson played 551 defensive innings for the Red Barons and rated a +8. Bourn played 238 innings and rated a +8 as well, but did so in less time.

So who would be the better outfielder for the Phillies? I submit Bourn, a player who seems to have retained his speed more than Roberson, is a more consistent hitter than Roberson, packs more of a punch at the plate than Roberson and is probably as good, or a better defensive player than Roberson. Having Bourn on staff as the fifth outfielder would help the Phillies by providing speed in pinch-runner situations, which would be the biggest benefit for the team. I hope the team decides to make Michael Bourn their fifth outfielder for 2007, but I suspect he'll start the season in Ottawa with the Lynx. That's too bad. I was looking forward to Bourn getting to exhibit his skills at Citizens, but that can wait for another season.

Labels: Bourn, Outfield, Roberson