A CITIZEN'S BLOG

Sorry for the late post, but my computer hiccuped this morning. It's doing alright now. Let’s take a quick look at the Phillies newest rightfielder, the long-time Milwaukee Brewer Geoff Jenkins.

The 33-year old Jenkins will be entering his eleventh MLB season and the first one not in a Brewers uniform in 2008. Last season Jenkins had 21 home runs, 64 RBI and struck out 116 times in 420 At-bats. Is that a lot of strikeouts? Yeah. Jenkins struck out about 25% of the time in terms of plate appearances. The MLB average is 17%.

As I looked over his numbers I thought to myself that Jenkins is not the sort of player to please Billy Beane or Davy Lopes. Why would Billy Beane pass on him? Well, Jenkins saw his On-Base Percentage (OBP) drop from .357 to a dreadful .319 in 2007. Part of it is batting average (he saw his BA drop from .292 in 2005 to .271 in ‘06 and .255 last season), but a good deal is his inability to draw walks. Just 32 in 2007. Jenkins struggles to draw walks resulted in his Runs Created to drop from 87 to 76 to just 60 from ’05 to ’07.

Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF).
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game: (RC/Outs) * 27

Why wouldn’t Davy Lopes want Jenkins on his team? Well, he is the classic American League DH-type player that Lopes complained was draining the life from baseball. In 1,234 career games Jenkins has stolen 31 bases. (Incidentially, 11 of Jenkins 31 career steals were in 2000. In the last seven years he’s stolen 14 bases, or an average of 2 per season. Ouch. Jenkins has also hit just 22 triples. Climbing deeper in the numbers, according to Bill James Baserunning stats (see, 2008 Bill James Handbook), Jenkins was a disaster for the Brewers in 2007, posting a -10 bases. In 17 opportunities to move from first base to third, Jenkins succeeded just once. He failed all five opportunities he had to move from second to home and both chances to go from first to home.

Yes, Jenkins appears to have a slow-footed slugger who might start having extreme difficulties getting on base if his decline in OBP portends a trend instead of an anomaly.

According to the Bill James Handbook, Jenkins will have a .341 OBP and a robust .200 Isolated Power at the plate. In 120 games Jenkins will hit 18 home runs with 62 RBI, and he’ll have a 5.23 Runs Created per 27 Outs. Compares alright with the rest of the Phillies lineup’s projections for 2008:

RC/27:
Howard: 10.04
Utley: 7.23
Burrell: 6.40
Werth: 6.12
Ruiz: 5.66
J.Roll: 5.62
Jenkins: 5.23
Victorino: 5.03
Helms: 5.02
Dobbs: 4.92

The Phillies will platoon Jenkins, a left-handed hitter, with Jayson Werth, a righty, in 2008. Certainly compared with Werth, who just re-upped with the Phillies for $1.7 million in 2008, Jenkins doesn’t compare. Werth had an OBP of .404 in 2007 and had nearly as many Runs Created (57) as Jenkins in half the plate appearances. Check out the differences in their Runs Created per 27 Outs:

2007:
Werth: 8.55
Jenkins: 5.00


So let's hope that Werth plays more than Jenkins in 2008.

Alright, this week was a sparse week for A Citizens Blog but we are going to start upping the posts and the quality of content. Next week I plan to talk a little about Brad Lidge and Chad Durbin, two of the Phillies newest pitchers.

Labels: Jenkins, Outfield

With Geoff Jenkins and Jayson Werth destined to split time along with Shane Victorino and Pat Burrell in the outfield, the competition for the coveted fifth outfielder slot is between Taguchi and Chris Snelling, the former Tampa Bay Davil Ray. Let’s talk a little about Snelling today since we talked about Taguchi the other day.

It is frustrating evaluating Snelling because we have precious little to go on. Thus far in his MLB career, Snelling has just 221 major league At-Bats. He’s hit just six home runs and nine doubles, so he’s no power hitter. He does seem to have a good eye, however: his 34 walks are pretty good, and his career OBP of .357 is a good 117 points higher than his batting average. According to the 2008 Bill James Handbook, Snelling will hit .253 (.350 OBP), with 7 home runs and 43 RBI. He’ll also have a 4.53 Runs Created per 27 Outs. That’s all pretty respectable.

Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF).
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
Fielding Percentage: (Putouts + Assists) / (Putouts + Assists + Errors). How often the player successfully handled the ball.
Range Factor: (Putouts + Assists) * 9 / IP. Essentially measures how much a player is involved in defensive plays.

Defensively we know, again, pretty little about Snelling’s skills. He played 129 innings of left field with the Washington Nationals and seemed to do well: his fielding percentage was 1.000, and his range factor was 2.02, which would have ranked him in the middle of the pack amongst left fielders in the MLB. Snelling also played 38 & 2/3 innings of centerfield for the Oakland A’s and likewise had a 1.000 fielding percentage and 2.09 range factor, which wasn’t so good (although the sample size is much too small).

So what are Snelling’s chances of making the Phillies roster? Not good. He’s basically competing for one slot only, that fifth outfielder slot where the Phillies are looking for someone with defensive skills and with speed. On both counts, I think So Taguchi has the edge over Snelling. He played more innings in the field and has pretty good stats (2.82 range factor in centerfield for the Cardinals in 2007), and he’s demonstrated speed on the base-paths. Taguchi has 36 steals in 48 attempts in his career, against Snelling’s two in six attempts.

In the final analysis, I think that Chris Snelling will play MLB baseball in 2008, but it won’t be in a Philadelphia Phillies uniform.

Labels: Outfield, Snelling

Time to look at some of the Phillies new faces and new reserve outfielder So Taguchi is a great place to start. The 38-year old Taguchi was part of the St. Louis Cardinals 2006 World Series winning team and might help to bring some veteran leadership to a team that is comparatively young.

What are the Phillies getting in Taguchi? Well, they are getting a guy who is versatile. In 2006 Taguchi played 63 games in centerfield, 41 in leftfield, 8 in rightfield, pinch-hit 38 times, pinch-ran 8 times and also played a game at second base. Not bad. Defensively Taguchi is pretty solid, making a lot of plays on balls hit near or outside of his zone in 2007. Expect to see Taguchi a lot in 2008 as a defensive substitution for Pat Burrell in left.

The Phillies also are getting a guy who is a solid contact kind of hitter. Taguchi struck-out just 9% of the time he strode to the plate, about twice as good as the N.L. average. To be sure, the Phillies aren’t getting someone who is going to swat 30+ home runs – Taguchi’s isolated power at the plate registered just .078, which is pretty bad. Taguchi got some hits and drew some walks in 2007. Taguchi’s biggest plus is his speed. In his career to date he’s swiped 36 bases in 48 tries, a good 75% success rate.

One red flag: 50% of Taguchi’s balls put into play were groundballs in 2006 (MLB average: 43%). As a consequence, Taguchi grounded into ten double plays in 2007, a relatively high number for a guy who had just 340 plate appearances.

Finally, the Phillies are getting a guy who isn’t white or black. The Phillies were the last N.L. team to integrate and their refusal to do so crippled the team and prevented it from contending in the 1950’s. The team’s historical race relations haven’t been good. Asian-American fans and Asian markets are going to be enormous in the coming decades in baseball and it makes sense for the Phillies to be a part of that and recruit Asian players. I’m not laboring under the delusion that millions of Japanese baseball fans are going to be at bars in Tokyo shrieking: “Taguchi!” but it is nice to see the Phillies diversify their lineup a little.

Labels: Outfield, Taguchi

With Aaron Rowand now a member of the San Francisco Giants the Phillies are going to shift their outfielders for 2008, moving former rightfielder Shane Victorino to centerfield and moving Jayson Werth up from the bench to start in rightfield. While Phillies fans are no doubt wailing over Rowand’s loss, they should take heart: the addition of Werth will likely make the Phillies outfield better, all while being cheaper.

Werth, the Baltimore Orioles first-round pick in the 1997 Draft, had a long history in the minors before eventually making his MLB debut. After being picked by the Orioles, Werth was eventually dealt north of the border to the Toronto Blue Jays, where he made his MLB debut in 2002. After injuries limited his playing time, Werth found his way to Los Angeles where he played for the Dodgers in 2004 and 2005. Werth hit 16 home runs and 47 RBIs in limited action with the Dodgers in 2004.

Werth found his way to the Phillies as a free agent during the 2006-2007 off-season. In 2007 Werth initially played as a pinch-hitter but soon found himself mixed into the Phillies lineup as a defensive replacement, replacing Pat Burrell in leftfield several times, and finally getting some time in rightfield with the injuries to Michael Bourn and Shane Victorino later in the year.

The performance that Werth turned in was impressive. In just 255 At-Bats, Werth managed to hit eight home runs and 49 RBI. His On-Base Percentage* was a robust .404. Werth is a terrific hitter with terrific plate discipline. In 2007, he was 4.6 pitches per plate appearance. This was easily the best on the Phillies roster, even better than Pat Burrell and Ryan Howard (4.2 each). This is the kind of hitter you want in your lineup - always working the count, getting on base, wearing the pitcher down.

* On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)

Werth also batted .379 with runners in scoring position, again the best on the Phillies. In many respects, Werth was the Phillies most productive hitter. Check out runs created per 27 Outs:

Werth: 8.11
Utley: 7.88
Howard: 7.76
Burrell: 6.54
Rollings: 6.25
Rowand: 5.88
Victorino: 4.87

Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF).
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.

Interestingly, despite having 304 plate appearances in 2007, Werth never once grounded into a double play. Rowand grounded into 18.

Seen this way, the Phillies offense would function better with Werth than with Rowand, but let's look at fielding, where Rowand is supposed to be a Gold Glover. Who was the better fielder? This is a little tough, because Werth is taking over right and Rowand played center, but I think a case can be made that the Phillies new alignment will be stronger. Victorino is a talented outfielder with a terrific arm. When he played centerfield in 2006, after Rowand got hurt, he actually played better, with a perfect fielding percentage and greater range.

Victorino played well in rightfield in 2007, but Werth was pretty good. In terms of arms, Werth notched 7 assists in 2007 in rightfield in just 446 innings of work. Victorino, who finished second in the N.L. in assists amongst RF's, had 10 in double the innings.

Dave Pinto's Probabilistic Model of Range (PMR) also rates Werth the best RF in all of baseball in 2007, with a 114.32 ratio ... What is PMR, you might ask? I was afraid you would. Basically it takes a model of outs a player should have made, vs. what they really did. The difference between them is divided so that a score above 100 means they did better than expected, while a score below 100 means they did worse. Werth's 114.32 was by far the best in the major leagues. Victorino's 108.72 was second. Rowand had a 99.27.

In the final analysis, the Phillies might be better off with Rowand gone and his $12 million dollar committed toward bolstering the Phillies rotation and bullpen. Werth, if he plays close to his 2007 level, will wow Phillies fans in 2008 with terrific hitting and great fielding. Watch, he'll be great.

Labels: Fielding, Outfield, Werth

With the trade of Michael Bourn to the Astros as part of the Brad Lidge deal and with Aaron Rowand’s near-certain departure in free agency, the Phillies 2008 Outfield is going to look very different than it did in 2007. Over in Left Field will be Pat Burrell once more, while Shane Victorino will probably keep his current slot in Right Field because of his terrific arm. Jayson Werth, the talented former Dodger who hit .298 with 8 home runs and 49 RBI in limited action in 2007, will likely get the Center Field slot. Greg Dobbs, who had 55 RBI in equally limited playing time in 2007, seems slated to be the Phillies fourth outfielder and primary pinch-hitting weapon.

The Phillies need a new reserve outfielder to back Dobbs, who played 86 games in the infield in 2007 and seems likely to get significant time there in 2008 as well. The speedy Bourn filled the role to a T, entering numerous games as a defensive substitution and being a pinch runner 35 times. Bourn’s speed was electrifying.

Enter the Phillies newest speed man, Chris Roberson.

Roberson, the Phillies ninth-round selection in the 2001 Draft, seemed destined to be the Phillies fifth outfielder in 2007, but Charlie Manuel and the Phillies high command gave the job to Bourn in a surprise move. Roberson returned to Ottawa to play for the Lynx, the Phillies Triple-A affiliate in the International League. Roberson played well: hitting .266 (.313 OBP), scoring 64 runs with 48 RBI in 113 games. Roberson drew 31 walks, hit 21 doubles and 3 triples, and stole 19 of 28 bases. Needing help with Bourn and Victorino down with injuries, the Phillies recalled Roberson and utilized him for several games.

With Bourn gone, it seems likely that Roberson will get some playing time in 2008. The question is: Can Chris Roberson be Michael Bourn?

Let’s look at Bourn’s resume: in 2006 he played with the Phillies Double-A and Triple-A affiliates. In Double-A Reading, Bourn had a .350 OBP and stole 30 of 34 bases he attempted. In Triple-A Scranton (the Phillies previous Triple-A affiliate), Bourn had a .368 OBP and stole 15 of 16 bases. When he joined the Phillies in 2007, Bourn pretty much held to that line of performance, with a .348 OBP and 18 of 19 steals.

Roberson’s performance in the minors hasn’t been so good. In contrast to Bourn in 2006, Roberson’s Triple-A performance in 2007 was fifty-five points lower and his stolen base success rate was much lower: 68% to 94%. Roberson did better in 2006 with Scranton: hitting .292 (.349 OBP) and stealing 25 of 34 bases (73%).

It seems to me, looking at Roberson’s minor league stats, that he used to run more before the Phillies minor league instructors put a stop to it. In 2005, with the Reading Phillies, he stole 34 of 48 bases. In 2004, with the Clearwater Threshers, he stole 16 of 28 bases. In 2003, as a member of the Lakewood Blue Claws, he stole 59 of 75 bases. In 2002, as a member of the Batavia Muckdogs, he stole 17 of 25 bases. His steal rate has consistently been about 70-75% and his OBP has been a solid .350 - .360. Those are good stats and auger well for his performance in 2008.

Davey Lopes, the Phillies first base coach and designated speed instructor, will no doubt work with Roberson in 2008 Spring Training and develop his technique. Perhaps Chris Roberson won’t achieve the same number of wow plays that Bourn did in 2007, but he’ll be a solid runner and will give the Phillies another terrific threat to take second base.

Labels: Base-Stealing, Bourn, Outfield, Roberson

What a bizarre victory for the Phillies last night – Rowand’s bloop single in the eighth inning tied the game at 2-2 and set up Ryan Howard’s massive tenth inning home run to win the game. It was exciting to watch and yet another crucial victory for the Phillies in as many days in a vital series for them to win. The two wins have boosted the Phillies to just four games behind the Mets. If the Phillies do win the next two games, they are just two behind the Mets in the N.L. East race.

Good times to be a Phillies fan …

I wanted to take a quick gander at the Phillies outfield defense today. To be blunt, it is the worst in the N.L. According to Relative Zone Rating (RZR), the Phillies rank dead-last, sixteenth of sixteen teams in terms of Zone Rating in the outfield:

1. New York: .912
2. Washington: .896
3. Atlanta: .895
4. Chicago: .891
5. Arizona: .8906. Florida: .888
7. Los Angeles: .881
8. Colorado: .877
9. San Diego: .877
10. Houston: .869
11. Cincinnati: .867
12. Milwaukee: .865
13. Pittsburgh: .862
14. San Francisco: .856
15. St. Louis: .855
16. Philadelphia: .849
N.L. Average: .877

Zone Rating (ZR): Is a stat which measures a player’s defensive ability by measuring plays they should have made. Admittedly, this is a stat left open to subjective opinions.

Why so bad? Well, over in left field the Phillies have Pat Burrell, who is desperately in need to being traded to an American League team this off-season and becoming a DH. Burrell’s .779 RZR in left field is the worst, by far, I might add, of any NL left fielder. The Cardinals Chris Duncan comes closest at .792.

The best left fielder? The Diamondbacks Eric Byrnes at .927.

In centerfield, Aaron Rowand continues to disappoint. His .845 RZR is better than the declining Jim Edmonds (.841), but he compares much worse to his rivals: Andruw Jones (.931), Carlos Beltran (.917), Juan Pierre (.900), and Mike Cameron (.893). I’m not sure why, but Rowand seems to really struggle in the outfield and hasn’t played the same since being the best center fielder in the A.L. in 2005.

Right field is the only place where the Phillies are getting real production from their outfielders. Shane Victorino ranks fourth of eleven N.L. right fielders at .897 RZR. Combined with his impressive throwing abilities (ten assists), I think the Phillies have a legit shot at seeing Victorino win the 2007 Gold Glove for right field. We’ll see.

Alright, a pretty short update, but it is better than none. Still digging out of a time-consuming mess at work …

Labels: Burrell, Fielding, Outfield, Rowand, Victorino

Yesterday I talked a little about Shane Victorino’s path to the majors, which included leaving beautiful Maui for the life of a minor-leaguer in rural small towns in America, being subject to a pair of Rule 5 drafts, before finally joining the Phillies and moving in to become the team’s right fielder. Today we are going to talk a little about what to expect from Victorino in 2007. While Victorino has played a little in the majors before – a few games in 2003 as a Padre and a handful as a Phillie in ’05 before basically becoming the team’s right fielder in ’06 – this will be the first time that Victorino starts a season as the team’s starting outfielder and it will be interesting to see how he does as a full-time starter.

What did Victorino do in 2006: he hit .287 with a .346 OBP and a .414 Slugging Percentage. His OPS+ was 92, meaning that he was somewhat below average for an N.L. hitter (100 is average). He hit six home runs, eight triples and 19 doubles. There are thing I like about Victorino that might be of interest to fans and fantasy players: hitting eight triples is a mark of a player with a lot of speed. The Phillies didn’t have Victorino run much in ’06 (seven attempted steals, of which four were successful), but with new First Base coach Davey Lopes on the team, expect the Phillies to send Victorino to second base more often.

What is interesting to me about Victorino’s ’06 campaign was how often he put the ball into play. Of Victorino’s 462 plate appearances in 2006, just 12% ended in strikeouts, well under the major league average of 17%, and better than such Phillies as Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell, etc. Victorino doesn’t draw enough walks for my liking – 24 in 2006 – but he’s a good contact hitter.

I looked at Victorino’s minor league stats and the story is confirmed there:

K / PA
1999 (Rookie): 12%
2000 (Single-A): 16%
2001 (Single-A+): 12%
2002 (Double-A): 9%
2003 (Double-A): 14%

With the Scranton Red Barons Victorino struck-out just 13% of the time. The high percentage of balls put into play meant that Victorino got a lot of hits when they fell. Victorino rode a nice batting average with balls put into play (BABIP) to success in the minors. In Scranton, for example, Victorino’s BABIP was .336, pretty nice. As a result Victorino had 98 Runs Created, or 7.29 per 27 Outs. If he can duplicate that in the majors, he’ll be doing very, very well.

Any predictions about Victorino’s season-line? First, I’d note that The 2007 Bill James Handbook rates Victorino as a “low” risk for sustaining an injury. The Handbook goes on to project Victorino playing in 147 games, hitting .266 with a .319 OBP and a .401 Slugging Percentage. Victorino will steal 11 bases in 17 attempts and hit 12 home runs and eight triples. Interestingly, The Handbook states that Victorino will strikeout just 75 times in 538 At-Bats, which is a pretty nice percentage. I think some of those numbers are going to be low: I think Victorino will hit ten or more triples, and he’ll steal 20-25 bases. I also think he’ll increase his on-base percentage somewhat.

Defensively Victorino is a superstar, something that I don’t think many people have considered or thought about. He had 11 assists playing in the Phillies outfield and his Range Factor numbers were far superior to his teammates and to the league averages for the position. If your league utilizes individual defensive stats (and I don’t know of one that does), Victorino is a keeper.

In the final analysis, Shane Victorino is a player that I am cautiously optimistic about for 2007. Fantasy leaguers, he might make a nice late-round sleeper pick for your team. I expect some good things from him in 2007.

Labels: Minors, Outfield, Predictions, Victorino

Now that Spring Training is finally upon us, we can start to talk about training camp battles between veterans fighting to keep their jobs and rookies trying to break their way into the lineup. The Phillies have a few battles of note, specifically Chris Coste’s efforts to remain on the Phillies roster, efforts that seem increasingly futile given management’s lack of interest in keeping Coste on the team. There are a few battles in the bullpen as well, but today I want to focus on another interesting battle I see shaping up between Chris Roberson and Michael Bourn over the Phillies fifth outfielder position. The Phillies will probably award Roberson the job, but I want to argue that Michael Bourn would do the job better.

Let’s start with the basics … Roberson ended the 2006 season with the Phillies, frequently appearing as a pinch-runner or a pinch-hitter for the Phillies. Roberson played before that in Triple-A Scranton as a part of the Red Barons. Roberson went to Mexico to play in winter league ball with the Naranjeros de Hermosillo, where he played somewhat well. (More on that later.) Meanwhile, Bourn moved fast, starting the season in Double-A ball before moving on to Scranton and closing out the ’06 campaign in Philadelphia with the Phillies. Roberson is 27 and was the Phillies ninth-round pick in the ’01 Draft. Bourn is 24 and is the Phillies fourth-round pick in the ’03 Draft.

With the Phillies set to feature Shane Victorino, Aaron Rowand and Pat Burrell with the versatile Jayson Werth as the fourth outfielder, the Phillies need to add a fifth outfielder to the mix. The competition seems to be between Roberson and Bourn for that spot with Roberson being seen as having the inside track due to his greater experience. I submit that would be a mistake. Bourn would be a superior player.

Roberson has a lot going for him: he played decently as a Phillie, successfully stealing all three bases he attempted in 2006. Roberson didn’t display a lot of promise at the plate however. I would worry about a player who hit .195 and didn’t draw a walk in 41 At-Bats. As a Red Baron he hit .292 (.248 GPA, .074 ISO), getting 83 hits in 284 At-Bats. He stole 25 of the 34 bases he attempted. Similarly, Roberson displayed an inability to draw a walk in Scranton, getting just 23 free passes while striking out 57 times.

Roberson decided to refine his skills in the Mexican League and hit .277. Impressively, and perhaps this heralds a refinement of his game, Roberson drew 36 walks and struck-out only 37 times. Disturbingly he was caught nine of the nineteen times he tried to steal.

Bourn, however, played even more sparingly than Roberson, going one-for-eight with the Phillies and getting caught two of his three steal attempts. Bourn displayed tremendous speed with Reading and Scranton, an aspect of Roberson’s game that he seems to be phasing out. Bourn successfully stole 45 of the 50 bases he attempted, including fifteen of sixteen (94%) with the Red Barons. Bourn hit well in Scranton (.272 GPA, .145 ISO) and displayed a great affinity for drawing walks than Roberson.

Interestingly, on the issue of speed, Bourn and Roberson both played in Reading in 2005 and posted similar speed stats … Bourn succeeded on 38 of 50 tries, and hit eight triples, while Roberson stole 34 of 48 bases and also hit eight triples.

Defensively, I’d give a slight edge to Bourn, who rates a little better playing outfield for the Red Barons than Roberson did. According to Minor League Baseball Splits, Roberson played 551 defensive innings for the Red Barons and rated a +8. Bourn played 238 innings and rated a +8 as well, but did so in less time.

So who would be the better outfielder for the Phillies? I submit Bourn, a player who seems to have retained his speed more than Roberson, is a more consistent hitter than Roberson, packs more of a punch at the plate than Roberson and is probably as good, or a better defensive player than Roberson. Having Bourn on staff as the fifth outfielder would help the Phillies by providing speed in pinch-runner situations, which would be the biggest benefit for the team. I hope the team decides to make Michael Bourn their fifth outfielder for 2007, but I suspect he'll start the season in Ottawa with the Lynx. That's too bad. I was looking forward to Bourn getting to exhibit his skills at Citizens, but that can wait for another season.

Labels: Bourn, Outfield, Roberson

I was participating on Philly Sports Talk with Rich and Jim Dogg recently when I was asked what I felt the Phillies biggest flaw was going to be in 2007. I mulled the question over and chose to give a response that probably surprised a lot of people: the outfield. Most people might guess the bullpen or the starting rotation, but the more I thought about it, the more I wondered if the outfield might be the weakest link in the Phillies chain in 2007.

In the past the Phillies have always been pretty strong in their outfield, boasting formidable offensive forces like Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell, along with strong role players like Jason Michaels and Kenny Lofton. In 2006 the Phillies shifted their offensive alignment, first bringing in Aaron Rowand to play centerfield and then sending Abreu to the Yankees. The Phillies also sat Pat Burrell often and actively sought to deal him to the Baltimore Orioles and to the San Francisco Giants. Unless something earth-shaking occurs, the Phillies seem set to go with Rowand, Burrell and Shane Victorino in 2007 as their offensive alignment.

What’s wrong with these three guys? Well, simply put, each one of them has a flaw. Pat Burrell can’t play defense and can’t run. Rowand and Victorino can’t hit.

Defensively, I am working with a lot of conjecture and speculation, but I think we can safely make three points:

1. Pat Burrell is rapidly becoming a lousy left fielder.
2. Aaron Rowand had an average season in 2006, which was terrible because the Phillies aren’t paying him to be an average center fielder.
3. Shane Victorino was probably the Phillies strongest defensive outfielder in 2006. He might have had one of the strongest arms in baseball.

Offensively, Victorino hit just six home runs in 2006 and had a slugging percentage of .414. He’s a fairly light-hitting (.127 ISO) outfielder playing on a team that is basically built around the long-ball. He doesn’t hit the ball very far, and he isn’t that great about getting on base: .346, which is largely a product of a .287 batting average. Aside from his good batting average, Victorino does a bad job getting on base. He drew just 24 walks in 462 plate appearances in 2006.

Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
Gross Productive Average (GPA): (1.8 * .OBP + .SLG) / 4 = .GPA. Invented by The Hardball Times Aaron Gleeman, GPA measures a players production by weighing his ability to get on base and hit with power. This is my preferred all-around stat.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
Walks per plate appearance (BB/PA): BB / PA = .BB/PA Avg
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). If you use ESPN’s version be advised that it is pitifully is out-of-date, however. James adjusted RC after the 2004 season ended.
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.

As Victorino is basically Abreu’s replacement, I’d note the massive difference between the two at the plate in 2006:

Runs Created per 27 Outs:
Abreu: 8.36
Victorino: 5.15

The reason why is fairly simple: Bobby Abreu forced the opposing pitcher to make 4.47 pitches every time he went to the plate. Shane Victorino forced the pitcher to make just 3.42 pitches per plate appearance.

Rowand was worse: 4.02 RC/27. While he displayed more power at the plate than Victorino (.163 ISO), Rowand was a free-swinger who was even less choosey than Victorino (3.40 P/PA). Rowand grounded into nearly three times the double plays as Victorino (13 to 5) in 17 fewer plate appearances. Rowand was also, not surprisingly, worse at drawing walks:
BB/PA:
Victorino: .052
Rowand: .040

Pat Burrell is an offensive force: 6.18 RC/27, .244 ISO … I am a big fan of Burrell’s because I love how he’s combined patience at the plate with power. He hit 29 home runs and 24 doubles in 2006, and still managed to draw a walk every sixth plate appearance (.172 BB/PA). He may be sliding defensively, but he’s still a great offensive player. Here is how the Bill James Handbook thinks these three will do in 2007:

Victorino: 67 Runs Created / .244 GPA / .135 ISO
Rowand: 71 Runs Created / .258 GPA / .160 ISO
Burrell: 87 Runs Created / .290 GPA / .230 ISO

Given that outfield is typically a position you trade defense for offense, I’m not sure the Phillies can get away with having two defensive-oriented outfielders on the same team. I’m also not sure that the Phillies have a particularly strong unit assembled here. The New York Mets are blessed with a strong defensive center fielder named Carlos Beltran. But unlike Rowand, Beltran is an offensive monster at the plate, with a 9.05 RC/27. Certainly compared with the Mets, the Phillies have a weak outfield, but generally I worry about the level of production that the Phillies will get from Victorino, Rowand and Burrell in 2007. This could be the factor that keeps the Phillies from challenging the Mets next season.

Labels: Burrell, Outfield, Rowand, Victorino