A CITIZEN'S BLOG

The Draft is just over two hours away. I'm 90% convinced that the Phillies will take High School shortstop Anthony Hewitt at #24. He's an exceptional talent and benefit from grooming within the Phillies system. Adrian Cardenas, another talented high schooler in need of grooming, is doing quite well at Clearwater with the Advanced Single-A Threshers. Imagine a future Phillies infield filled with Hewitt, Cardenas, Utley and Ryan Howard ...

Baseball Prospectus projects that the Phillies will pass on Hewitt and take Zach Collier, an outfielder from Chino Hills High School in California. Others say the Phillies will go with Andrew Cashner, a six foot six relief ace from Texas Christian who almost certainly would have a shorter path to the major leagues than Hewitt or Collier. I'm banking on the Phillies being more interested in developing a player in the long-term. That's why I am going with Hewitt, whom is the person Baseball America says is going at #24.

I really liked this article from SI's Tom Verducci about why the MLB Draft is so important now that we live in the post-steroids era.

Meanwhile ... Don't be fooled by Brett Myers performance last evening. Yes, he surrendered just one hit and one run in seven and one-third of an inning. Yes, he struck eight Reds out. He also surrendered six walks. Volquez, in contrast, tossed a third of an inning less than Myers and got the same number of strikeouts. He allowed just two hits and walked just two Phillies. Even when Myers held onto the no-hitter it struck me that Volquez was still out-pitching him.

Losing John Smoltz has to be a bitter blow to the Atlanta Braves, weakening their rotation and costing them a key veteran in their search to return to the playoffs for the first time since '05. I think Smoltz will return in '09, but it will be his final season. This loss will really hurt though. I'm not sure that the Braves will survive and catch up to the Mets and Phillies.

Speaking of the Braves, anyone notice the extreme home/road split that the Braves have? The Braves are 24-8 at home and 7-21 on the road. Compare the winning percentages:

N.L. East: (Home Pct / Road Pct / Diff.)
Atlanta: .750 / .250 / +.500
New York: .607 / .433 / +.174
Phillies: .606 / .536 / +.070
Marlins: .600 / .500 / +.100
Nats: .448 / .366 / +.082

The only team that comes as close to matching the Braves variance is the Reds, whose .655 home winning percentage is .333 higher than their .322 road winning percentage (although last night's game helped matters). If the Braves were homebodies, they'd be unbeatable.

I'll comment on the Draft later.

Labels: Braves, Cardenas, Marlins, Mets, MLB Draft, Nationals

Labels: Myers, Nationals, Rollins

Opening Day is finally here. I'm stunned. This spring has seemingly flown by and we are already into the 2008 Baseball season. At the moment I am furiously finishing my Season Preview series, of which I have yet to post about the Phillies pitching and fielding. I've been consumed at work in an exceptionally long trial that has left me physically exhausted. I hope to complete it today and post tomorrow or Wednesday.

Let's talk a little about Opening Day. Nationals vs. Phillies at 3:05 PM in Citizens Bank Ballpark. Somehow the timing doesn't feel right for me. Whenever I think of Opening Day I think of soft, warm breezes in the air, blooming flowers and a warm sun. It has been so cold this winter that it still feels like it is winter-time. Baseball somehow feels unnatural. I wonder if we'll have a repeat of last year, when cold weather in the Northeast United States resulted in havoc. (e.g., Snow in Cleveland.)

Well, if it feels like Opening Day or not, Brett Myers makes the start for the second consecutive Opening Day for the Phillies. I'm looking forward to seeing what Cole Hamels and Myers do together. They haven't played together since 2006 and in the only season where both started, Hamels was still a rookie. Teamed together, they both could win 20 games. They have that kind of talent.

Today we get our first look at the new-and-improved Washington Nationals. General Manager Jim Bowden has put together a team that reminds me a lot of his Cincinnati Reds teams: offensively inclined featuring great outfields. Well, the 2008 Nationals feature an outfield of Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns, three formitable players. Add them with Nick Johnson and Ryan Zimmerman, and the fact that the Nats are moving from RFK to a more hitter friendly park, and perhaps the Nats will actually score a few runs.

They'll need to because their pitching staff is awful. The Nats were one of the worst teams in baseball last year on the mound and that was with RFK turning 375 foot home runs into outs. Let's see how they do in cozier confines.

I think the Phillies start the season in an excellent state of mind: confident, calm, poised. My prediction: the Phillies take it 6-4, Brett Myers getting the win and Ryan Howard smashes a three-run bomb. Spring is finally here.

Labels: Hamels, Howard, Myers, Nationals

The Phillies have new unis that they’ll wear for home games. Apparently this is in honor of the team’s 125th Anniversary for 2008. To the right see J.Roll, Cole Hamels and former Phillies great Robin Roberts. I guess these will replace their usual home unis. What does everyone think? They don't look bad. In fact they actually bear little-to-no difference from the Phillies usual home uniforms with the red pinstripes.

The Washington Nationals are in the midst of turning themselves into the Trail (Jail) Blazers of the MLB (or would a more apt and geographically relevant comparison be to the Baltimore Ravens?) by adding El ijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge to their roster. Milledge adds some speed and Dukes adds some power to a lineup sorely lacking in both. The Nationals finished dead-last in runs scored in 2007, so adding Dukes and Milledge will help, despite whatever character negatives they bring to the table. I doubt that Dukes or Milledge will make the Nationals contenders, but they will help them win a few more games.

I am rather surprised to see the Red Sox emerge as the contender to bring Santana aboard. After getting outflanked on the A-Rod deal back in 2003-2004, they’ve done a nice job competing with the Yankees and look like they’ve outflanked the Yankees for once. The prospect of teaming Santana with Josh Beckett must be too tantalizing for Red Sox fans to contemplate, with a pair of Cy Young contenders teamed up with veteran ace Curt Schilling and Dice-K. That’s four potential 20-game winners on the same pitching staff.

The other thing to consider here is that the Yankees, who need to upgrade their pitching badly and sought Santana to bolster a pitching staff filled with aging stars like Andy Pettite, Roger Clemens and Mike Mussina and unproven talent like Chien-Ming Wang. If Santana does wind up in Beantown, the balance of power will continue to shift in the Red Sox direction.

The Santana situation is really sucking the air out of the Winter Meetings. There is virtually no other news to report. Aaron Rowand hasn't landed anywhere. Neither has Kyle Lohse or Carlos Silva. No other major deals are being discussed. Until the Red Sox and Twins consummate their deal, there is nothing much going to happen.

Labels: Hamels, Nationals, Rollins

What a weekend to be a Phillies fan as the crazy, see-saw battle for the N.L. East came to a peaceful end with the Phillies 6-1 victory over the Washington Nationals and the Mets 8-1 loss to the Florida Marlins. The victory, which gave possession of the N.L. East to the Phillies with an 89-73 record, means that the Phillies will play in the playoffs for the first time since 1993.

This has to be one of the most memorable seasons in Phillies history, ranking right up there with 1950, 1980 and 1993. The Phillies dramatic come-from-behind victory in the race for the division ought to erase memories of 1964. For once, the Phillies pulled off the dramatic, the astonishing, they delivered the fantastic comeback. The Mets 7-game collapse is just as dramatic as the Phillies in 1964. While the Mets incompetence played a part, we also have to give the lion’s share of the credit to the Phillies: terrific clutch play of Jimmy Rollins, the powerful lineup that features three potential MVP candidates in Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, the patched together rotation that includes just two of the Phillies five expected rotation starters, the leaky bullpen, the speed from Rollins, Bourn and Victorino. This was a team effort and the Phillies should be credited with tough play and mental grit. They won the N.L. East.

Tomorrow I’ll have some more thoughts on the 2007 playoff race, but I wanted to give everyone a snapshot of what I was thinking. Celebrate Phillies fans!

Labels: Bourn, Howard, Mets, Nationals, Playoffs, Rollins, Utley, Victorino

Has the tide turned in the Phillies favor? Will 2007 go down in history as the year that the Phillies erased the stain of 1964? Will the Phillies make the playoffs for the first time since 1993?

This is shaping up to be a historic season. After Jimmy Rollins boasted that the Phillies were the team to beat in the preseason, many dismissively wrote the Phillies off with their struggles out of the gate. Just a few weeks ago the Phillies were mostly given an outside chance to make the playoffs. Trailing in the wildcard race, well behind the Mets in the N.L. East race, the Phillies were a long-shot to make it. Just two weeks ago the Mets held a seven game lead on the Phillies. The Mets collapse these last two weeks is hardly as dramatic as 1964, but it is stunning. How could a team boasting such experience as the Mets, with so much talent, fall apart like this? The spirit and energy of Phillies fans was contagious, as they cheered wildly and waved towels. The Phillies fed off that energy and seemed to be playing with passion we’ve never seen before. Certainly, I’ve never seen the Phillies play like this since 1993. In the past we’ve seen the Phillies playing tentatively down the stretch, cautiously, fearful they’d come up short, reluctant to believe in themselves.

Not this year. Watching Brett Myers pump his fist as he strode off the mound with his 21st save of the year, you could see the passion and enthusiasm in the players and the fans. This team believes in itself. This team knows it can win. I haven’t seen a Phillies team with this much passion and heart since 1993.

The Mets, in contrast, look like the Phillies. Manager Willie Randolph looks like he’s been beaten. Watching him on ESPN last night he seemed tired and drained, too numb to rally the troops. His efforts to fire up his players during the game was almost pathetic, pounding the fists of players who looked too pessimistic and too nervous to think about victory, only the avoidance of defeat. Nobody wanted to look him in the eye. This is a beaten team.

According to Baseball Prospectus’ playoff odds, the Phillies hold a slight edge over the Mets for the N.L. East right now: 50.3% to 49.7%. Overall, the Phillies playoff chances are slightly better than the Mets: 59.1% to 58.5%.

Tonight, Saturday and Sunday: Phillies vs. Nationals. The Phillies are 10-5 against the Nationals this season and this seems to favor the Phillies. The last series they played the Phillies took three of four. Oh, and ace Cole Hamels goes for the Phillies tonight. The Mets, meanwhile, greet the Marlins at Shea Stadium, where the Fishstripes are aiming to be spoilers. This will be interesting.

It’s not in the bag by any means. The Phillies still have to win, and as a Phillies fan you have to remember the tragic history this team has. Decades of losing, a dynasty that failed to materialize in the 1950’s, the collapse of 1964, the teams of 1976-1978 that lost the NLCS three times, the decline of the championship team in the mid-to-late 1980’s, the ’93 team that lost on Joe Carter’s home run, the team’s recent failures. I hesitate to point out that history is against the Phillies.

But who cares about that? Live in the moment. October baseball beckons. My prediction: the Mets rally and win two of three, the Phillies also take two of three, and the Phillies and Mets duel in the 163rd game of the season Monday night, a one-game playoff to decide the N.L. East title. Enjoy!

Labels: Hamels, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Playoffs, Rollins

What a difference a day makes … the Phillies come-from-behind 7-6 win over the Nationals, coupled with the Mets 8-7 collapse against the Marlins means that the Phillies improved their playoff chances from 29% to 36% last night and moved to within 1.5 games of the Mets. The Mets still have the inside track on the N.L. East title – at their current paces, the Mets will finish at 90-72 and the Phillies will finish at 88-74 – but the Phillies are playing with momentum and they get six more cracks at the Nationals in the next twelve games.

I can’t believe that I didn’t preview the Nats – Phillies series … Here is a quickie preview of the next three games …

Tonight: Adam Eaton vs. Shawn Hill. This is a major mismatch for the Phillies. Hill is 4-4 with an impressive 3.01 ERA this season. In four career starts against the Phillies Hill is 2-1 with a 3.81 ERA. Adam Eaton, in contrast, has been the Phillies weakest pitcher this season and a major disappointment. He’s 9-9 with a 6.36 ERA thus far this season. In his sole start against the Nationals he was rocked for four runs in six and a third innings.

Saturday: Kyle Kenderick vs. Tim Redding. Like Hill, Redding has generally pitched well for a very bad team. He’s 3-5 with a 3.73 ERA. He won his sole start against the Phillies earlier in the year, going six innings and surrendering just two runs. Kenderick has been a surprise to me. I really didn’t think he was pitching well earlier in the season, but he’s 9-4 with a respectable 4.05 ERA. Kendrick doesn’t strike players out – just 3.5 K/9 – but he’s good about not allowing walks – 2.1 BB/9 – and he seems to give his fielders the best chance to make plays and get outs. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA is much higher than his actual ERA – 4.95 – and I wonder if Kendrick is one of those rare pitchers that influences balls put into play or if he’s just plain lucky.

Sunday: Joel Hanrahan is no match for Cole Hamels. He’s 4-3 with a 6.45 ERA and he has a nearly 1:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio (34 strikeouts to 33 walks). Should be an easy win for the Phillies.

Bottom-line, I think the Phillies will win Saturday and Sunday’s games in a walk, but I worry about tonight’s game. If Adam Eaton can pull together and turn in a solid performance, then Friday might just earn the Phillies a sweep.

Winning tonight is important too because Pedro Martinez goes for the Mets tonight in Florida and I think the Mets will probably play with a little fire tonight. The Phillies can’t afford to lose this game and fall behind the Mets. Every game counts.

Labels: Eaton, Hamels, Kenderick, Mets, Nationals

A year removed from their surprising 81-81 2005 campaign, the Washington Nationals played more at their level, coming in again – for the third consecutive season – in fifth place, but this time with a record ten games worse than last year at 71-91. The former Montreal Expos have settled into a difficult situation in our nation’s capitol. A terrible team that was basically a ward of the state when they were in Canada, the Nats are trying to rebuild and turn their franchise around but are finding it difficult given the problems with building a new stadium and competing financially with teams in New York, Philadelphia and Atlanta. Worse still was the Nats inability to leverage Alfonso Soriano at the trading deadline. Maybe the Phillies didn’t get a lot when they dealt Bobby Abreu, but they managed to shed his contract and get some talent. The Nats, never a playoff contender, failed to move Soriano and watched him walk to the Cubs and received nothing in return. No, the Nats have a very unenviable position and this year ought to be more of the same.

I. Offense. I suppose you have to take into account the fact that the Nationals play in an extreme pitchers park – RFK’s 86 Home Run Factor made it the third-hardest park to get a home run in during the ’06 campaign – but you also have to acknowledge the fact that the Nationals have a terrible offensive unit. The ’06 team scored 746 runs, below the N.L. average of 771. They ranked to the middle and bottom of the pack in terms of home runs, hits, total bases, etc.

The Nats seemed to play a style of play devoted to small ball: bunting, base-stealing, etc. They ranked second in the N.L. in terms of overall Manufactured Runs according to the 2007 Bill James Handbook, with 185 (thirteen behind the Colorado Rockies), and they were second in the N.L. in deliberately Manufactured Runs (“Type 1” Manufactured Runs) that are the product of bunting and base-stealing. Perhaps the team’s focus will change with Frank Robinson having moved on as the team’s coach, but I doubt it.

The big issue for the Nats is how they will replace Soriano. It is not easy replacing a guy who hit 46 home runs and stole 41 bases. Soriano had 121 Runs Created* with the Nats, ninth-best in the N.L. They will miss Soriano’s production in a big way.

* Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). If you use ESPN’s version be advised that it is pitifully is out-of-date, however. James adjusted RC after the 2004 season ended.

The ’07 Nats will have some bats in their lineup, however, beginning with Ryan Zimmerman, their Third Baseman and 2006 Rookie of the Year candidate. Zimmerman hit 20 home runs and had 110 RBIs and will need to duplicate that performance next season for the Nats to score 700+ runs. The biggest question mark about Zimmerman is whether or not Austin Kearns will have a monster season since the Nats stole him from the Reds. Unless Kearns and Zimmerman each hit 30+ home runs, and 100+ RBIs, then the Nats will be suck offensively.

II. Pitching. The 2006 Nats featured one of the worst pitching staffs in the majors despite playing in a park that is very, very friendly to pitchers. Ramon Ortiz, their primary starting pitcher, surrendered a 5.57 ERA in 2006 and led the majors in losses with 16. As an Angel in 2002, Ortiz surrendered forty home runs.

The rest of the staff isn’t much better. Their bullpen was twelfth in the N.L. in ERA, so leads weren’t even safe once they were gotten. Honestly, I can't say anything else about the Nats pitching because it is so lousy.

III. Defense. The Nats were okay defensively in 2006. Their .694 DER* was a touch better than the league average (.693), but they allowed five more unearned runs than the league average (69 vs. 64). They also converted fewer than the league average in double plays, had more errors and allowed a higher percentage of base-stealers (the Nats catchers caught 21% vs. the N.L. average of 28%). Really, they could use some work at nearly every facet of the game.

* DER – Defense Efficiency Ratio: (Batters Faced – (Hits + Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) / (Batters Faced – (Home Runs, Walks + Hit By Pitch + Strikeouts)) How often fielders convert balls put into play into outs.

One player they will miss is Soriano, who struggled at times in left field, but turned in a nice performance defensively, throwing 22 assists. Soriano was also the third-best LF in 2006 according to the +15 John Dewan, author of the Plus / Minus fielding system (see, the 2007 Bill James Handbook).

IV. Outlook. In a word: grim. No Soriano, no upgrades to the pitching staff … Yikes, this team could be bad. This team could be sub-70 wins bad, which is good news for the Phillies. The 2007 Nats are no threat, whatsoever, to the Phillies for primacy in the N.L. East. Sure, the Nats stung the Phillies a little late in the season, but the ’07 Nats can only hope to be spoilers, contention is out of their reach.

Labels: Nationals, Predictions