Tuesday, May 08, 2007
Third Base - Helms, Bell & Nunez
The Philadelphia Phillies have had some pretty good third basemen in their history. Scott Rolen was pretty good during his six years in a Phillies uniform. Dick Allen had some years of talent and turmoil manning the hot corner for the Phillies in the mid-to-late 1960’s. (Coincidentally, both men won the Rookie of the Year award: Rolen in 1997 and Allen in 1964.) And that Mike Schmidt guy back in the 1970’s and 1980’s was pretty darn good too.
So it is somewhat ironic then that the Phillies real Achilles Heel r
ight now – beyond their pitching woes – is the terrible play that the team is getting this year from their third baseman. Since Rolen left via trade during the middle of the 2002 campaign, the Phillies have been searching in vain for a solution for their woes at third base. First the Phillies played Placido Polanco, one of the players acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals in the Rolen deal at third. In the off-season the Phillies signed David Bell and brought him on-board. A strong fielder but a poor hitter, Bell struggled for much of his time in Philadelphia – ranking second in terms of grounding into double plays in 2005 – before getting dealt to the Milwaukee Brewers in 2006 midseason and leaving baseball thereafter. In Bell’s place the Phillies played Abraham Nunez, a light-hitting utility infielder who didn’t ground into as many double plays, but also proved to be utterly incompetent at the plate in nearly every other aspect.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). If you use ESPN’s version be advised that it is pitifully is out-of-date, however. James adjusted RC after the 2004 season ended.
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
Fielding Percentage (FPct): (Putouts + Assists) / (Putouts + Assists + Errors). How often the player successfully handled the ball.
In the off-season the Phillies signed former Marlins and Brewers infielder Wes Helms to be their new third baseman. Nunez, a switch-hitter, was kept on to back Helms up. With the month of April done it is becoming clear that the Phillies have major issues with their two third basemen.
First, Helms. Theoretically Helms appeared to be a safe bet to improve over what Bell and Nunez did in 2006. Playing first base, third base and pinch-hitting for the Marlins in 2006, Helms hit ten home runs with 47 RBIs. Helms sabremetric stats looked similarly impressive. Despite the relative lack of playing time (just 278 plate appearances in 2006), Helms had 48 Runs Created, or 8.1 per 27 Outs. His .246 Isolated Power at the plate was very good and suggested that he’d led a powerful bat to the Phillies lineup to go with Pat Burrell, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley. Helms posted much, much better stats in 2006 than Bell and Nunez:
ISO:
Helms: .246
Bell: .120*
Nunez: .062
* Bell’s stats all as Phillie.
RC/27:
Helms: 8.1
Bell: 4.8
Nunez: 2.9
Oh, and Wes Helms hit .281 with Runners In Scoring Position (BA/RISP) in 2006, something that the Phillies struggled somewhat at, including Bell (.247) and Nunez (.211).
So Wes Helms must be doing a great job so far this season, right? Not even close. Take a quick gander at the numbers and prepare to be shocked:
Home Runs: 0
ISO: .066
Runs Created: 4
RC/27: 1.8
Oh, and his BA/RISP: .147 … That is a .231 decline in his slugging percentage from .575 to .344, and a .180 point decline in his isolated power, from .246 to .066. Helms OBP declined .074 from .390 to .316. There are simply no words to describe what kind of a collapse this is on Helms part.
In retrospect, Helms numbers hid the fact that he was a little lucky in 2006 (26.3% of the balls he put into play were line-drives in 2006, and his batting average with balls put into play was .394, both abnormally high numbers) and difficult to predict. Remember, many of his at-bats were pinch-hitting opportunities.
But still, this is a major, major downgrade for the Phillies, going from the mostly light-hitting Bell to the entirely light-hitting Helms.
So what’s the solution? Play Abraham Nunez? Yeah, that’s not really an option …
Nunez has played a little so far this season and it hasn’t been good. In 37 plate appearances this season he’s 6-for-33 (.182) with just one double. His OBP is just .229, which is very low. Sadly, it is higher than his slugging percentage, which stands at a paltry .212. His Isolated Power stands at a laughable .030. Nunez, mind you, has never had any power to his swing:
ISO:
2004: .083
2005: .076
2006: .062
2007: .030
Now little has Nunez contributed to the Phillies offense? His Runs Created stand at zero. He’s creating 0.2 per 27 Outs. It would take a team of nine Abraham Nunez’s five games to score a run.
Oh, and he has a .111 BA/RISP.
The reason why I don’t like Abraham Nunez is his propensity for hitting ground balls. About 74% of the balls he put into play this season were grounders, 62% last season. Helms is hitting a lot of grounders this season too – 49% – and as a consequence Helms and Nunez have ground into five and two double plays respectively. At this rate the Phillies third baseman will almost certainly ground into 24 or more double plays this season, just as many as David Bell did in 2005.
Defensively, I cannot say how well Helms is doing, although it does strike me that he’s made a lot of errors – four – already this season. Helms .930 fielding percentage is much worse than Bell’s .945 in 2006.
I think this is a major area of concern for the team. How can they continue to tolerate such lousy production from the third base position? This is something the Phillies will have to address, and soon.
(2) comments
So it is somewhat ironic then that the Phillies real Achilles Heel r
ight now – beyond their pitching woes – is the terrible play that the team is getting this year from their third baseman. Since Rolen left via trade during the middle of the 2002 campaign, the Phillies have been searching in vain for a solution for their woes at third base. First the Phillies played Placido Polanco, one of the players acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals in the Rolen deal at third. In the off-season the Phillies signed David Bell and brought him on-board. A strong fielder but a poor hitter, Bell struggled for much of his time in Philadelphia – ranking second in terms of grounding into double plays in 2005 – before getting dealt to the Milwaukee Brewers in 2006 midseason and leaving baseball thereafter. In Bell’s place the Phillies played Abraham Nunez, a light-hitting utility infielder who didn’t ground into as many double plays, but also proved to be utterly incompetent at the plate in nearly every other aspect.Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). If you use ESPN’s version be advised that it is pitifully is out-of-date, however. James adjusted RC after the 2004 season ended.
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
Fielding Percentage (FPct): (Putouts + Assists) / (Putouts + Assists + Errors). How often the player successfully handled the ball.
In the off-season the Phillies signed former Marlins and Brewers infielder Wes Helms to be their new third baseman. Nunez, a switch-hitter, was kept on to back Helms up. With the month of April done it is becoming clear that the Phillies have major issues with their two third basemen.
First, Helms. Theoretically Helms appeared to be a safe bet to improve over what Bell and Nunez did in 2006. Playing first base, third base and pinch-hitting for the Marlins in 2006, Helms hit ten home runs with 47 RBIs. Helms sabremetric stats looked similarly impressive. Despite the relative lack of playing time (just 278 plate appearances in 2006), Helms had 48 Runs Created, or 8.1 per 27 Outs. His .246 Isolated Power at the plate was very good and suggested that he’d led a powerful bat to the Phillies lineup to go with Pat Burrell, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley. Helms posted much, much better stats in 2006 than Bell and Nunez:
ISO:
Helms: .246
Bell: .120*
Nunez: .062
* Bell’s stats all as Phillie.
RC/27:
Helms: 8.1
Bell: 4.8
Nunez: 2.9
Oh, and Wes Helms hit .281 with Runners In Scoring Position (BA/RISP) in 2006, something that the Phillies struggled somewhat at, including Bell (.247) and Nunez (.211).
So Wes Helms must be doing a great job so far this season, right? Not even close. Take a quick gander at the numbers and prepare to be shocked:
Home Runs: 0
ISO: .066
Runs Created: 4
RC/27: 1.8
Oh, and his BA/RISP: .147 … That is a .231 decline in his slugging percentage from .575 to .344, and a .180 point decline in his isolated power, from .246 to .066. Helms OBP declined .074 from .390 to .316. There are simply no words to describe what kind of a collapse this is on Helms part.
In retrospect, Helms numbers hid the fact that he was a little lucky in 2006 (26.3% of the balls he put into play were line-drives in 2006, and his batting average with balls put into play was .394, both abnormally high numbers) and difficult to predict. Remember, many of his at-bats were pinch-hitting opportunities.
But still, this is a major, major downgrade for the Phillies, going from the mostly light-hitting Bell to the entirely light-hitting Helms.
So what’s the solution? Play Abraham Nunez? Yeah, that’s not really an option …
Nunez has played a little so far this season and it hasn’t been good. In 37 plate appearances this season he’s 6-for-33 (.182) with just one double. His OBP is just .229, which is very low. Sadly, it is higher than his slugging percentage, which stands at a paltry .212. His Isolated Power stands at a laughable .030. Nunez, mind you, has never had any power to his swing:
ISO:
2004: .083
2005: .076
2006: .062
2007: .030
Now little has Nunez contributed to the Phillies offense? His Runs Created stand at zero. He’s creating 0.2 per 27 Outs. It would take a team of nine Abraham Nunez’s five games to score a run.
Oh, and he has a .111 BA/RISP.
The reason why I don’t like Abraham Nunez is his propensity for hitting ground balls. About 74% of the balls he put into play this season were grounders, 62% last season. Helms is hitting a lot of grounders this season too – 49% – and as a consequence Helms and Nunez have ground into five and two double plays respectively. At this rate the Phillies third baseman will almost certainly ground into 24 or more double plays this season, just as many as David Bell did in 2005.
Defensively, I cannot say how well Helms is doing, although it does strike me that he’s made a lot of errors – four – already this season. Helms .930 fielding percentage is much worse than Bell’s .945 in 2006.
I think this is a major area of concern for the team. How can they continue to tolerate such lousy production from the third base position? This is something the Phillies will have to address, and soon.
Labels: Bell, Fielding, Helms, Nunez
Thursday, April 19, 2007
Glove Week!, Part IV: The Phillies Infield 2004-2006
We'll lead-off with a brief discussion of the disaster that the Phillies are devolving into as we speak. Coming on the heels of Charlie Manuel's break-down with Howard Eskin, the team announced that they would move Brett Myers to the bullpen to be the team's set-up guy and closer when Tom Gordon wasn't available. The move reeks of desperation and makes me question Manuel and Gillick's sanity. Yes, the bullpen stinks, but why move a top-flight starter and potential Cy Young Award candidate to the bullpen? This team never plays well in April to begin with and I am sure that the lousy weather is hurting the Phillies and preventing them from hitting their stride. This team will win a lot of games in June and July, they just need to be patient and not do something stupid like this. Why not swing some trades to acquire bullpen arms? Sending a top-flight starter to the bullpen? That's what a dumb team does to make it look to the fans that they are actually doing something.
Yesterday we talked a little about the Phillies outfield defense, which has largely been a mixed bag of sorts for the Phillies over the last several years. Average-to-below average defenders (Burrell and Abreu), disappointments (Rowand) and pleasant surprises (Michaels and Victorino) have typified the Phillies defense in the outfield. Things are different in the infield, where the Phillies have some stellar performers. I’m not saying that the Phillies are as good as the $100,000 Infield*, but they are darn good and might have one of the best infields in baseball, especially defensively.
* The $100,000 Infield refers to the 1909 – 1914 Philadelphia Athletics infield, which consisted of Frank "Home Run" Baker, Eddie Collins, Stuffy McInnis, and Jack Berry. According to the Bill James Historical Abstract the $100,000 Infield consistently ranks atop the all-time lists of Infield units. This is, by the way, a topic I’ll be exploring in the not-so-distant future.
Let’s start with David Bell at third base … Cover your ears, those who have heard this speech before, but … David Bell, whatever his faults as a hitter, is one of the finest fielding third basemen in the game. When the Phillies signed him in 2003 to succeed Scott Rolen at third base, they probably didn’t realize that their effort to replace Rolen offensively would be a flop, but Bell was every bit the talented fielder that Rolen is.
Here is how Bell did in terms of Plus / Minus:
2006: +8 (tied for eighth in MLB)
2005: +24 (ranked first in MLB)
2004: +22 (ranked third in MLB)
2003: +6
Between 2004-2006, Bell was +54, which was good for fourth amongst all major leaguers. Scott Rolen was second at +61. Oh, and Bell's relative range factor was well above 1.000 for 2003-2005:
2003: 1.075
2004: 1.065
2005: 1.079
Let’s continue with Zone Rating … In 2005 David Bell finished second in the N.L. in ZR at .757, just behind the Astros Morgan Ensberg (.769). It isn’t fair to compare Bell to Rolen that season because Rolen was injured and missed so much time, but it bears mentioning that Bell was one of the best third basemen in the N.L. that season. Bell was tops in the N.L. in Balls Outside of Zone (OOZ) with 80. Bell did make 21 errors that season to Ensberg’s 15, but 2/3 of Bell’s errors were of the fielding variety, as opposed to 7 throwing errors. Bell’s seven throwing errors weren’t bad at all.
The difference between David Bell and, say, the Marlins Mike Lowell, is a great example of why you cannot look at fielding percentage or errors to judge a player’s fielding abilities. Lowell was a technically proficient fielder in 2005, committing just six errors to Bell’s twenty-one, and had a much better fielding percentage (.983 to .951). The problem is that David Bell fielded 80 balls outside of his zone to Lowell’s 39. That’s forty or so additional outs that Bell provided the Phillies defense better than Mike Lowell. That’s why Bell is such a great fielder. Range.
Bell slumped a little in 2006. His Zone Rating (.683), prior to his trade to the Milwaukee Brewers, would have ranked him eighth of twelve N.L. third basemen. It was much worse than Scott Rolen, whose .764 led the N.L. Bell’s range, however, was decently good. Rolen fielded 66 balls outside of his zone in 1,215 innings of work. Bell fielded 35 in 781 innings. Had Bell played as many innings as Rolen, he would have had 55 balls played, which is pretty good and fairly close to Rolen.
Abraham Nunez, Bell’s successor at third base, was a horror show last season. His .667 ZR would have ranked him tenth of twelve third basemen. His Range Factor, 2.66, was worse than Bell’s 2.78 despite playing behind substantially the same pitching staff.
We’ll close out our discussion of David Bell by noting that he was pretty good in 2004. Bell finished second in fielding balls out of his zone with 73, 13 behind the N.L. leader … you guessed it, Scott Rolen. Bell committed a lot of errors (23) that season (Rolen? He committed 8) but he still made a lot of plays in the field. Keeping Henry Chadwick’s admonition (see, Part I) to keep track of plays made rather than mistakes avoided, you’d have to say that David Bell was a pretty darn good defensive third baseman. Let’s hope Wes Helms does as good a job.
Range Factor... Bell / Rolen
2006: 2.78 / 3.04
2005: 2.84 / 3.20
2004: 2.88 / 3.06
Moving on to Chase Utley at Second Base … There are big, big difference between second and third base. If you play third you’ve got to have lightning quick reflexes and a strong arm. To play second you have to have quick reflexes and good footwork, as opposed to a powerful arm. Turning the double play and getting to balls hit into the gap is key to playing second base … Fortunately the Phillies are blessed / have been blessed with terrific play at second in Chase Utley and, before him, Placido Polanco.
Let’s start with Utley. The best second baseman in the N.L. (any doubt?), Utley is a sterling defensive player as well as being a major offensive force. What does Plus/Minus say?
2006: +19 (third in MLB)
2005: +26 (second in MLB)
2004: +7
Relative Range Factor: 1.024 in 2004 and 1.073 in 2005.
In 2006 he finished fourth of twelve 2B’s in ZR and was second in the N.L. in plays outside of his zone with 43. He was also third in assists. The previous season Utley finished second of nine N.L. 2B’s in ZR at .849. In abbreviated play in 2004, Utley finished in the bottom-half in terms of ZR.
What makes Utley so great? He’s not perfect – 17 errors in 2006 and 15 in 2005 – but he’s got great range and makes nice throws. He turns the double play well too. Few are better at getting to the ball and making plays.
As I noted, Placido Polanco was the Phillies second baseman in 2004 and 2005 prior to being dealt to the Detroit Tigers in the middle of the ’05 campaign. Polanco was consistently good in the field, though I was always mystified how someone with such good range factor numbers could rank as inconsistently in terms of ZR as he.
First, Plus / Minus ...
2006: unk (not ranked in top ten)
2005: +13 (ranked 9th in MLB)
2004: -4 (ranked 21st)
2003: +18 (ranked third in MLB)
Relative Range Factor:
2005: 1.058
2004: 1.134
2003: 1.038
In 2004 Polanco finished dead-last (!) in the N.L. in ZR. In 2005, had he kept up his trend in fielding, he would have finished with a tremendous .881 ZR (Mark Grudzielanek of the St. Louis Cardinals actually finished first with a .853 … Check out the comparison:
Range Factor … Utley / Polanco
2006: 5.14 / 5.24*
2005: 5.06 / 5.15
2004: 4.90 / 5.42
* As Detroit Tiger.
Let’s wrap up with a few quick thoughts on J.Roll. Off to a blistering hot start in 2007, J.Roll plays the most important defensive position in baseball … shortstop.
2006: +12 (7th in MLB)
2005: +23 (4th in MLB)
2004: +5 (14th in MLB)
2003: +12 (3rd in MLB)
Oddly, J.Roll’s numbers aren’t good. Consider:
Relative Range Factor:
2005: .956
2004: .927
2003: .978
Rollins numbers in terms of RRF is Derek Jeter-like. Now consider ZR...
Zone Rating ... Jimmy Rollins:
2006: .828 / 8th of 13
2005: .784 / 15th of 15
2004: .841 / 3rd of 11
Inconsistent, to say the least. But there are things to like about J.Roll. In 2004, when people were busy declaring Jack Wilson the greatest shortstop in baseball, J.Roll committed fewer errors than Wilson (9 to 16).
Range Factor ... J.Roll
2006: 4.30
2005: 4.11
2004: 4.00
Alright ... Tomorrow I'll discuss defense and first base. Every position has its own wrinkles and variations in the field. First base has a lot of issues that I hadn't comptemplated before until recently. So I have some thoughts on Ryan Howard's defense tomorrow. Before I go, enjoy Fielding Win Shares per 1,000 Innings, a pretty good look at how each of the Phillies contributed in 2004-2006 …
2004 / 2005 / 2006
Bobby Abreu: 2.65 / 2.71 / 2.59
David Bell: 3.47 / 3.63 / 3.59
Pat Burrell: 2.45 / 2.47 / 2.53
Marlon Byrd: 3.32 / --- / ---
Doug Glanville: 5.13 / --- / ---
Ryan Howard: --- / 1.70 / 0.86
Kenny Lofton: --- / 5.13 / ---
Jason Michaels: 3.89 / 6.30 / ---
Abraham Nunez: --- / --- / 3.56
Placido Polanco: 5.48 / 6.01 / ---
Jimmy Rollins: 3.49 / 3.61 / 4.43
Aaron Rowand: --- / --- / 4.22
Jim Thome: 1.10 / 1.61 / ---
Chase Utley: 3.89 / 4.32 / 3.58
Shane Victorino: --- / --- / 4.79
(0) comments
Yesterday we talked a little about the Phillies outfield defense, which has largely been a mixed bag of sorts for the Phillies over the last several years. Average-to-below average defenders (Burrell and Abreu), disappointments (Rowand) and pleasant surprises (Michaels and Victorino) have typified the Phillies defense in the outfield. Things are different in the infield, where the Phillies have some stellar performers. I’m not saying that the Phillies are as good as the $100,000 Infield*, but they are darn good and might have one of the best infields in baseball, especially defensively.
* The $100,000 Infield refers to the 1909 – 1914 Philadelphia Athletics infield, which consisted of Frank "Home Run" Baker, Eddie Collins, Stuffy McInnis, and Jack Berry. According to the Bill James Historical Abstract the $100,000 Infield consistently ranks atop the all-time lists of Infield units. This is, by the way, a topic I’ll be exploring in the not-so-distant future.
Let’s start with David Bell at third base … Cover your ears, those who have heard this speech before, but … David Bell, whatever his faults as a hitter, is one of the finest fielding third basemen in the game. When the Phillies signed him in 2003 to succeed Scott Rolen at third base, they probably didn’t realize that their effort to replace Rolen offensively would be a flop, but Bell was every bit the talented fielder that Rolen is.
Here is how Bell did in terms of Plus / Minus:
2006: +8 (tied for eighth in MLB)
2005: +24 (ranked first in MLB)
2004: +22 (ranked third in MLB)
2003: +6
Between 2004-2006, Bell was +54, which was good for fourth amongst all major leaguers. Scott Rolen was second at +61. Oh, and Bell's relative range factor was well above 1.000 for 2003-2005:
2003: 1.075
2004: 1.065
2005: 1.079
Let’s continue with Zone Rating … In 2005 David Bell finished second in the N.L. in ZR at .757, just behind the Astros Morgan Ensberg (.769). It isn’t fair to compare Bell to Rolen that season because Rolen was injured and missed so much time, but it bears mentioning that Bell was one of the best third basemen in the N.L. that season. Bell was tops in the N.L. in Balls Outside of Zone (OOZ) with 80. Bell did make 21 errors that season to Ensberg’s 15, but 2/3 of Bell’s errors were of the fielding variety, as opposed to 7 throwing errors. Bell’s seven throwing errors weren’t bad at all.
The difference between David Bell and, say, the Marlins Mike Lowell, is a great example of why you cannot look at fielding percentage or errors to judge a player’s fielding abilities. Lowell was a technically proficient fielder in 2005, committing just six errors to Bell’s twenty-one, and had a much better fielding percentage (.983 to .951). The problem is that David Bell fielded 80 balls outside of his zone to Lowell’s 39. That’s forty or so additional outs that Bell provided the Phillies defense better than Mike Lowell. That’s why Bell is such a great fielder. Range.
Bell slumped a little in 2006. His Zone Rating (.683), prior to his trade to the Milwaukee Brewers, would have ranked him eighth of twelve N.L. third basemen. It was much worse than Scott Rolen, whose .764 led the N.L. Bell’s range, however, was decently good. Rolen fielded 66 balls outside of his zone in 1,215 innings of work. Bell fielded 35 in 781 innings. Had Bell played as many innings as Rolen, he would have had 55 balls played, which is pretty good and fairly close to Rolen.
Abraham Nunez, Bell’s successor at third base, was a horror show last season. His .667 ZR would have ranked him tenth of twelve third basemen. His Range Factor, 2.66, was worse than Bell’s 2.78 despite playing behind substantially the same pitching staff.
We’ll close out our discussion of David Bell by noting that he was pretty good in 2004. Bell finished second in fielding balls out of his zone with 73, 13 behind the N.L. leader … you guessed it, Scott Rolen. Bell committed a lot of errors (23) that season (Rolen? He committed 8) but he still made a lot of plays in the field. Keeping Henry Chadwick’s admonition (see, Part I) to keep track of plays made rather than mistakes avoided, you’d have to say that David Bell was a pretty darn good defensive third baseman. Let’s hope Wes Helms does as good a job.
Range Factor... Bell / Rolen
2006: 2.78 / 3.04
2005: 2.84 / 3.20
2004: 2.88 / 3.06
Moving on to Chase Utley at Second Base … There are big, big difference between second and third base. If you play third you’ve got to have lightning quick reflexes and a strong arm. To play second you have to have quick reflexes and good footwork, as opposed to a powerful arm. Turning the double play and getting to balls hit into the gap is key to playing second base … Fortunately the Phillies are blessed / have been blessed with terrific play at second in Chase Utley and, before him, Placido Polanco.
Let’s start with Utley. The best second baseman in the N.L. (any doubt?), Utley is a sterling defensive player as well as being a major offensive force. What does Plus/Minus say?
2006: +19 (third in MLB)
2005: +26 (second in MLB)
2004: +7
Relative Range Factor: 1.024 in 2004 and 1.073 in 2005.
In 2006 he finished fourth of twelve 2B’s in ZR and was second in the N.L. in plays outside of his zone with 43. He was also third in assists. The previous season Utley finished second of nine N.L. 2B’s in ZR at .849. In abbreviated play in 2004, Utley finished in the bottom-half in terms of ZR.
What makes Utley so great? He’s not perfect – 17 errors in 2006 and 15 in 2005 – but he’s got great range and makes nice throws. He turns the double play well too. Few are better at getting to the ball and making plays.
As I noted, Placido Polanco was the Phillies second baseman in 2004 and 2005 prior to being dealt to the Detroit Tigers in the middle of the ’05 campaign. Polanco was consistently good in the field, though I was always mystified how someone with such good range factor numbers could rank as inconsistently in terms of ZR as he.
First, Plus / Minus ...
2006: unk (not ranked in top ten)
2005: +13 (ranked 9th in MLB)
2004: -4 (ranked 21st)
2003: +18 (ranked third in MLB)
Relative Range Factor:
2005: 1.058
2004: 1.134
2003: 1.038
In 2004 Polanco finished dead-last (!) in the N.L. in ZR. In 2005, had he kept up his trend in fielding, he would have finished with a tremendous .881 ZR (Mark Grudzielanek of the St. Louis Cardinals actually finished first with a .853 … Check out the comparison:
Range Factor … Utley / Polanco
2006: 5.14 / 5.24*
2005: 5.06 / 5.15
2004: 4.90 / 5.42
* As Detroit Tiger.
Let’s wrap up with a few quick thoughts on J.Roll. Off to a blistering hot start in 2007, J.Roll plays the most important defensive position in baseball … shortstop.
2006: +12 (7th in MLB)
2005: +23 (4th in MLB)
2004: +5 (14th in MLB)
2003: +12 (3rd in MLB)
Oddly, J.Roll’s numbers aren’t good. Consider:
Relative Range Factor:
2005: .956
2004: .927
2003: .978
Rollins numbers in terms of RRF is Derek Jeter-like. Now consider ZR...
Zone Rating ... Jimmy Rollins:
2006: .828 / 8th of 13
2005: .784 / 15th of 15
2004: .841 / 3rd of 11
Inconsistent, to say the least. But there are things to like about J.Roll. In 2004, when people were busy declaring Jack Wilson the greatest shortstop in baseball, J.Roll committed fewer errors than Wilson (9 to 16).
Range Factor ... J.Roll
2006: 4.30
2005: 4.11
2004: 4.00
Alright ... Tomorrow I'll discuss defense and first base. Every position has its own wrinkles and variations in the field. First base has a lot of issues that I hadn't comptemplated before until recently. So I have some thoughts on Ryan Howard's defense tomorrow. Before I go, enjoy Fielding Win Shares per 1,000 Innings, a pretty good look at how each of the Phillies contributed in 2004-2006 …
2004 / 2005 / 2006
Bobby Abreu: 2.65 / 2.71 / 2.59
David Bell: 3.47 / 3.63 / 3.59
Pat Burrell: 2.45 / 2.47 / 2.53
Marlon Byrd: 3.32 / --- / ---
Doug Glanville: 5.13 / --- / ---
Ryan Howard: --- / 1.70 / 0.86
Kenny Lofton: --- / 5.13 / ---
Jason Michaels: 3.89 / 6.30 / ---
Abraham Nunez: --- / --- / 3.56
Placido Polanco: 5.48 / 6.01 / ---
Jimmy Rollins: 3.49 / 3.61 / 4.43
Aaron Rowand: --- / --- / 4.22
Jim Thome: 1.10 / 1.61 / ---
Chase Utley: 3.89 / 4.32 / 3.58
Shane Victorino: --- / --- / 4.79
Labels: Bell, Fielding, Nunez, Rollins, Utley
Monday, February 12, 2007
Nunez v. Helms
As I’ve noted, in broken record fashion in the past, the Phillies had a terrific defensive but horrifically offensively challenged third baseman the last several years with David Bell. Now, after three and a half years, the David Bell era is over and the Phillies move ahead with Abraham Nunez and Wes Helms as their prospective third base duo. The Phillies seem set to have Helms as the starter and back him up with Nunez, though I suspect that Nunez will get a lot of playing time in 2007.
Both right-handed hitters, Helms and Nunez have a few similarities. Both were used as utility infielders in 2007 by their respective teams. Nunez played 74 games at third, pinch-hit 41 times and played second and short a half-dozen times each. Helms pinch-hit 52 times, played 89 games at first base and another 24 at third for the Florida Marlins.
Here is how Bell, Nunez and Helms fared playing third in 2007:
Field Pct. / Range Factor
Bell: .945 / 2.78
Nunez: .959 / 2.66
Helms: .938 / 2.86
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
Fielding Percentage: (Putouts + Assists) / (Putouts + Assists + Errors). How often the player successfully handled the ball.
Range Factor: (Putouts + Assists) * 9 / IP. Essentially measures how much a player is involved in defensive plays.
Gross Productive Average (GPA): (1.8 * .OBP + .SLG) / 4 = .GPA. Invented by The Hardball Times Aaron Gleeman, GPA measures a players production by weighing his ability to get on base and hit with power. This is my preferred all-around stat.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). If you use ESPN’s version be advised that it is pitifully is out-of-date, however. James adjusted RC after the 2004 season ended.
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
Take some of Helms numbers in context: after all, he played a fraction (94 & 1/3) of the innings that Bell (781 & 1/3) and Nunez (632) did. Still, it suggests that he’ll play alright at third. Nunez is an individual whose reputation rests squarely on his ability to field the ball. The Pirates and Cardinals, his two previous teams, did not sign him for his ability to hit the ball. He’s the ultimate utility infielder. I suspect that his performance at third in 2007 was rather poor, and that even here Helms will be either an upgrade or simply no worse.
Helms will be a massive upgrade over Nunez offensively. There really is no good way to dress up Nunez offensive output. It is horrible. Let’s start with the raw stats. Nunex hit .211 with two home runs and 32 RBI in 322 At-Bats. Look a little deeper into the numbers and the picture is actually worse: Nunez GPA was just .205 in 2006. .205!!!! His On-Base Percentage was .303 and his slugging percentage was a mind-bogglingly awful .273. Nunez Isolated Power at the plate was just .062 … He had just 14 extra-base hits in those 322 At-Bats. Nunez contribution to the Phillies offense was pretty much nil. He had 27 Runs Created in 2006, and if you break that down by how many Outs he made, then you discover that he scored 1.98 per 27 outs. An entire team of Abraham Nunez’s would scored basically 2 runs a game, or 321 over the course of a season. The Phillies actually scored 865.
In fact, it is a minor miracle that the Phillies led the N.L. in runs scored with Nunez playing in half of their games. To be a successful offense with that anchor on the team? They are doing something very right.
One interesting fact I discovered: Jason Weitzel of the excellent Beerleaguer argued that Nunez addition helped the Phillies lineup by putting someone with speed in and removing the slow-footed David Bell, who grounded into a lot of double plays. Nunez, in contrast, with his speed, avoided hitting into double plays and benefited the Phillies offense. Initially I thought that this argument had merit: Bell had ground into 11 double plays in 324 At-Bats in 2006 with the Phillies, while Nunez hit into 7. Then I discovered this stunning gem of a stat: in 2006, of the balls put into play by David Bell, 44% were grounders. Of the balls that Nunez put into play, 62% were ground balls.
I firmly believe that Nunez was extraordinarily lucky that he did not ground into more double plays in 2007. In reality, he ought to be absurdly prone to hitting into the 6-4-3 double play. Maybe Nunez’s speed and base-running skills enabled him to avoid the 6-4-3 (Bill James did rate Nunez a good base-runner at +3, while Wes Helms was a -4), but I doubt it. Based on Helms batted ball stats I think the Phillies can rest easy: just 38% of Helms batted balls were grounders (the league average was 44%, by the way), and he hit line-drives 26% of the time.
I think the Phillies offense will operate much, much smoother in 2007 with the addition of Wes Helms to the Phillies lineup. I am looking forward to seeing the overall improvement that the team will show thanks to their third base upgrade.
(0) comments
Both right-handed hitters, Helms and Nunez have a few similarities. Both were used as utility infielders in 2007 by their respective teams. Nunez played 74 games at third, pinch-hit 41 times and played second and short a half-dozen times each. Helms pinch-hit 52 times, played 89 games at first base and another 24 at third for the Florida Marlins.
Here is how Bell, Nunez and Helms fared playing third in 2007:
Field Pct. / Range Factor
Bell: .945 / 2.78
Nunez: .959 / 2.66
Helms: .938 / 2.86
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined:
Fielding Percentage: (Putouts + Assists) / (Putouts + Assists + Errors). How often the player successfully handled the ball.
Range Factor: (Putouts + Assists) * 9 / IP. Essentially measures how much a player is involved in defensive plays.
Gross Productive Average (GPA): (1.8 * .OBP + .SLG) / 4 = .GPA. Invented by The Hardball Times Aaron Gleeman, GPA measures a players production by weighing his ability to get on base and hit with power. This is my preferred all-around stat.
Isolated Power (ISO): .SLG - .BA = .ISO. Measures a player’s raw power by subtracting singles from their slugging percentage.
On-Base Percentage (OBP): How often a player gets on base. (H + BB + HBP) / (Plate Appearances)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): Total Bases / At-Bats = Slugging Percentage. Power at the plate.
Runs Created (RC): A stat originally created by Bill James to measure a player’s total contribution to his team’s lineup. Here is the formula: [(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times ((S * 1.125) + (D * 1.69) + (T * 3.02) + (HR * 3.73) + (.29 * (BB + HBP – IBB)) + (.492 * (SB + SF + SH)) – (.04 * K))] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF). If you use ESPN’s version be advised that it is pitifully is out-of-date, however. James adjusted RC after the 2004 season ended.
RC/27: Runs Created per 27 outs, essentially what a team of 9 of this player would score in a hypothetical game.
Take some of Helms numbers in context: after all, he played a fraction (94 & 1/3) of the innings that Bell (781 & 1/3) and Nunez (632) did. Still, it suggests that he’ll play alright at third. Nunez is an individual whose reputation rests squarely on his ability to field the ball. The Pirates and Cardinals, his two previous teams, did not sign him for his ability to hit the ball. He’s the ultimate utility infielder. I suspect that his performance at third in 2007 was rather poor, and that even here Helms will be either an upgrade or simply no worse.
Helms will be a massive upgrade over Nunez offensively. There really is no good way to dress up Nunez offensive output. It is horrible. Let’s start with the raw stats. Nunex hit .211 with two home runs and 32 RBI in 322 At-Bats. Look a little deeper into the numbers and the picture is actually worse: Nunez GPA was just .205 in 2006. .205!!!! His On-Base Percentage was .303 and his slugging percentage was a mind-bogglingly awful .273. Nunez Isolated Power at the plate was just .062 … He had just 14 extra-base hits in those 322 At-Bats. Nunez contribution to the Phillies offense was pretty much nil. He had 27 Runs Created in 2006, and if you break that down by how many Outs he made, then you discover that he scored 1.98 per 27 outs. An entire team of Abraham Nunez’s would scored basically 2 runs a game, or 321 over the course of a season. The Phillies actually scored 865.
In fact, it is a minor miracle that the Phillies led the N.L. in runs scored with Nunez playing in half of their games. To be a successful offense with that anchor on the team? They are doing something very right.
One interesting fact I discovered: Jason Weitzel of the excellent Beerleaguer argued that Nunez addition helped the Phillies lineup by putting someone with speed in and removing the slow-footed David Bell, who grounded into a lot of double plays. Nunez, in contrast, with his speed, avoided hitting into double plays and benefited the Phillies offense. Initially I thought that this argument had merit: Bell had ground into 11 double plays in 324 At-Bats in 2006 with the Phillies, while Nunez hit into 7. Then I discovered this stunning gem of a stat: in 2006, of the balls put into play by David Bell, 44% were grounders. Of the balls that Nunez put into play, 62% were ground balls.
I firmly believe that Nunez was extraordinarily lucky that he did not ground into more double plays in 2007. In reality, he ought to be absurdly prone to hitting into the 6-4-3 double play. Maybe Nunez’s speed and base-running skills enabled him to avoid the 6-4-3 (Bill James did rate Nunez a good base-runner at +3, while Wes Helms was a -4), but I doubt it. Based on Helms batted ball stats I think the Phillies can rest easy: just 38% of Helms batted balls were grounders (the league average was 44%, by the way), and he hit line-drives 26% of the time.
I think the Phillies offense will operate much, much smoother in 2007 with the addition of Wes Helms to the Phillies lineup. I am looking forward to seeing the overall improvement that the team will show thanks to their third base upgrade.
Labels: Bell, Helms, Nunez, Third Base
