Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Phillies - Braves Series Preview
Sorry for the late afternoon post, but I've been busy. Better late than never, right? Alright, five things to keep in mind about the Braves & Phillies series tonight ...
1. The Braves are a lot better than their 19-18 record suggests. I like to follow teams Pythagorean Win-Loss records and compare them to their 'real' records to predict which teams are lucky and due for a fall or resurgence. Looking at records so far this season I'm seeing the Braves as a team that is poised to make a resurgence. As of this morning, this is where the N.L. East standings sit:
1. Florida: 23-15
2. Philadelphia: 21-18
3. New York: 19-17
4. Atlanta: 19-18
5. Washington: 16-23
Here are the Pythagorean Win-Loss records:
1. Atlanta: 23-14
2. Philadelphia: 21-18
3. Florida: 20-18
4. New York: 19-17
5. Washington: 16-23
The Mets, Phillies and Nationals are all hitting their pythagorean win-loss records right on the mark, but the Marlins are over-performing by three games and the Braves are under-performing by four. Why is that? Well, the Braves have a terrible record in close (i.e., games decided by two runs or less) games at 4-10. When they start getting those break landing their way, I think that the Braves will start winning and will validate my prediction that they'll win the N.L. East in 2008.
2. The Braves have a darn good pitching staff. Of the Phillies five starters, four boast ERAs of 4.93 or above:
Cole Hamels: 3.36
Kyle Kendrick: 4.93
Jamie Moyer: 5.02
Brett Myers: 5.33
Adam Eaton: 5.40
lower than 3.00. Compare that to the Braves starters: Tim Hudson (2.54) and John Smoltz (2.00) have ERAsJair Jurrgens, who tossed just thirty innings in relief for the Tigers last season, is 4-3 with a 3.10 ERA. Braves pitchers rank fourth in the N.L. in strikeouts per nine innings (7.26), while the Phillies rank twelfth (6.09). The Braves also rank first (or last, depending on how you view it ... let's just say "best") in OPS against at .664.
Bizarrely, Phillies starters have turned in slightly more (19 to 18) Quality Starts (a start where a pitcher tossed six or more innings and surrenders three or fewer runs) than the Braves. Go figure.
3. The Braves field well. Their fielding percentage is just seventh in the N.L. to the Phillies fourteenth, but they were also second in Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER), meaning that Braves fielders converted balls put into play into outs 71.8% of the time, second to just the Cubs at 72%.
4. The Braves can hit. They have a better OPS than the Phillies (.789 to .755), a slightly better batting average with runners in scoring position (.250 to .249 BA/RISP), and have scored more runs per game (4.89 to 4.74).
5. The Braves are going to sweep this series. Sorry, Phillies fans, but the Braves are a sleeping giant.
(8) comments
1. The Braves are a lot better than their 19-18 record suggests. I like to follow teams Pythagorean Win-Loss records and compare them to their 'real' records to predict which teams are lucky and due for a fall or resurgence. Looking at records so far this season I'm seeing the Braves as a team that is poised to make a resurgence. As of this morning, this is where the N.L. East standings sit:
1. Florida: 23-15
2. Philadelphia: 21-18
3. New York: 19-17
4. Atlanta: 19-18
5. Washington: 16-23
Here are the Pythagorean Win-Loss records:
1. Atlanta: 23-14
2. Philadelphia: 21-18
3. Florida: 20-18
4. New York: 19-17
5. Washington: 16-23
The Mets, Phillies and Nationals are all hitting their pythagorean win-loss records right on the mark, but the Marlins are over-performing by three games and the Braves are under-performing by four. Why is that? Well, the Braves have a terrible record in close (i.e., games decided by two runs or less) games at 4-10. When they start getting those break landing their way, I think that the Braves will start winning and will validate my prediction that they'll win the N.L. East in 2008.
2. The Braves have a darn good pitching staff. Of the Phillies five starters, four boast ERAs of 4.93 or above:
Cole Hamels: 3.36
Kyle Kendrick: 4.93
Jamie Moyer: 5.02
Brett Myers: 5.33
Adam Eaton: 5.40
lower than 3.00. Compare that to the Braves starters: Tim Hudson (2.54) and John Smoltz (2.00) have ERAsJair Jurrgens, who tossed just thirty innings in relief for the Tigers last season, is 4-3 with a 3.10 ERA. Braves pitchers rank fourth in the N.L. in strikeouts per nine innings (7.26), while the Phillies rank twelfth (6.09). The Braves also rank first (or last, depending on how you view it ... let's just say "best") in OPS against at .664.
Bizarrely, Phillies starters have turned in slightly more (19 to 18) Quality Starts (a start where a pitcher tossed six or more innings and surrenders three or fewer runs) than the Braves. Go figure.
3. The Braves field well. Their fielding percentage is just seventh in the N.L. to the Phillies fourteenth, but they were also second in Defense Efficiency Ratio (DER), meaning that Braves fielders converted balls put into play into outs 71.8% of the time, second to just the Cubs at 72%.
4. The Braves can hit. They have a better OPS than the Phillies (.789 to .755), a slightly better batting average with runners in scoring position (.250 to .249 BA/RISP), and have scored more runs per game (4.89 to 4.74).
5. The Braves are going to sweep this series. Sorry, Phillies fans, but the Braves are a sleeping giant.
Labels: Batting, Braves, Eaton, Fielding, Hamels, Kenderick, Moyer, Myers, Pitching
Monday, May 12, 2008
The Need for Speed
The Phillies emerge from a so-so trip out to the West which saw the team drop four of even games against the Diamondbacks and Giants with an off-day before starting up a three-game series with the Atlanta Braves tomorrow. I’ll preview the Phillies – Braves series tomorrow.
Despite losing two of three to the Giants over the weekend, I
think the Phillies are returning a stronger team than they left Philadelphia as. Jimmy Rollins has returned to the roster and extended trips to the West Coast have to be draining on the Phillies. Up next: the Braves and then an inter-league series with the Toronto Blue Jays, a rematch of the 1993 World Series …
I wanted to talk a little about speed and the Phillies … There are basically two things we look at to measure speed in baseball: stolen bases and triples. The stolen base is a measure of speed because the player attempting to steal has to traverse the area from first to second while the ball is still within the baseball diamond area. You have to be fast to go from a dead-stop to a run and accomplish that. We also look at triples because players need to be quick to leg out the extra 90 feet to take this from a double to a three-bagger. We usually don’t count doubles because usually doubles are the product of hard-hit balls to distant portions of the ballpark rather than speed.
As those who read sabremetric publications like The Hardball Times or
Baseball Prospectus, or who read Michael Lewis’ Moneyball, know the stolen base isn’t typically a strategy held in high esteem by the sabremetrics community. I’ve often argued that where you stand on the stolen base is a pretty good indication about whether or not you stand on the Catholic or Protestant divide of baseball, the old schoolers or the sabremetricians. To the old school, Small Ballers, the argument for the stolen base is basically this: you’ve got to be aggressive and do little things like bunt, hit-and-run and, yes, steal, to get that extra base to get into position to score and to claw out those runs.
The counter-argument is basically that base-stealing is counter-productive because the penalty for being caught stealing out-weighs the benefits. Better to play safer station-to-station baseball, advancing runners with singles, doubles and the mighty home run. Consider this …
According to Baseball Prospectus’ Run Expectancy Matrix (see, Table 4-1.1 of Baseball Between the Numbers), a team with a runner on first and no outs can expect to score 0.9259 runs in an inning. Let’s say that runner attempts to steal second base. There are two possible outcomes:
If he’s safe, the run expectancy matrix improves to 1.1596, an improvement of 0.2337 …
If he’s out, the run expectancy matrix declines to 0.2866, a decline of 0.6393 …
Your position can increase by a quarter of a run, or it can decline by two-thirds of a run. The guys at Baseball Prospectus ran the numbers and determined that a stolen base adds 0.1593 runs to a team’s total, while a caught stealing subtracts 0.3687 runs from a team’s total.
If you play the numbers, the BP guys argue, then stealing bases is a losing strategy unless you can be successful around 73% of the time.
The 2007 Phillies were a remarkable successful team in this respect, successfully stealing 138 bases in 157 tries, for a 88% success rate. Applying the
numbers above, the Phillies added 22 runs to their offense with base-stealing though they lost 7 runs with the caught stealings. Total net gain: 15 runs. The New York Mets, the Phillies competition last season, led the majors with 200 stolen bases, but their aggressive base-running only netted them an extra 15 runs as well because they were caught stealing 46 times (in fact, they were actually a tenth of a run behind the Phillies). While it isn’t conventional sabremetric wisdom, I think that the stolen base was a successful strategy and helped the Phillies improve their offense in ‘07. I think that most of the credit for that belongs to First Base Coach Davey Lopes, who was brought onto the team last season to help Charlie Manuel. Taking players like Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn and Chris Roberson aside, he made them all into aggressive base-runners who stole bases by the bushel. J.Roll and Victorino finished fifth and sixth respectively in terms of stolen bases in the N.L. in 2007, with J.Roll swiping 41 in 47 tries (87.2% success) and Victorino taking 37 of 41 (90.2%). Michael Bourn, in limited playing time, stole 18 of 19 bases (94.7%).
Applying BP’s numbers, that meant that J.Roll’s running added 4.32 runs, Victorino added 4.42 runs, and Bourn added 2.50 runs. Compare those totals to that of the Mets Jose Reyes, who led the N.L. in steals with 78 in 99 attempts (78.8%), but whose manic base-running only added 4.68 runs.
Lopes also helped press Jimmy Rollins in the basepaths to leg out more triples. J.Roll, who had previously led the N.L. in triples three times, led the N.L. in triples once again, but he hit 20 in ‘07, eight more than his previous season highs in ’01 and ’04. With Lopes counsel, the Phillies went from eighth in stolen bases in 2006 to second last season, and from sixth in triples to first last season.
Now, one thing that I thought when I looked at the Phillies base-stealing totals was that Lopes tutelage helped the Phillies run the bases well. Well … the Phillies base-running stats yield some interesting facts. While the Phillies over-all gained +104 bases in 2007 with their aggressiveness on the bases, they gained 100 of those 104 via base-stealing. The Phillies rated a +4 based on pure running on the bases according to the 2007 Bill James Handbook … As an aside, I’ll note that the Mets likewise struggled, posting an MLB-best +111, of which all but three were a product of base-stealing … It is kind of an interesting thing: that the two fastest teams in baseball were actually average base-running teams. The best MLB in running the bases in 2007 was, of all teams, the Kansas City Royals at +60. The best team in the N.L. was the Atlanta Braves at +40.
What else? The Phillies made 24 base-running outs, which was pretty average (the N.L. average was 22.6) … Phillies base-runners scored about 29% of the time, a little bit better than the MLB average of 28%.
One way of looking at what Lopes did was to look at the improvements Victorino and Rollins made in ’07 over their ’06 stats. (Not enough data to look at Bourn.) Unfortunately, while there is data on Victorino, there isn’t much. Victorino made a base-running out and was +14 in base-running in ’06. Last season he made four base-running outs and was +36, but James sub-divides base-running (+7) from base-stealing (+29). Looking at Victorino’s numbers, I cannot say that there is anything to support m theory that Lopes influence made the team better, more aggressive base-runners or improved the team in any better.
The numbers are much different with Rollins: in ’06 Rollins was a mere +9 in base-running and made four base-running outs. In ’07, Rollins was a whopping +61. While +29 of that was base-stealing, even more – +32 – was honest-to-goodness base-running. Additionally, Rollins didn’t make a single base-running out. It is difficult to draw conclusions from numbers relating to one player, but it seems likely to me that Lopes influence made Rollins a better threat running the bases and helped make him the 2007 N.L. MVP. Given how critical Rollins play was to the Phillies success last season, then Lopes – it could be argued – played a vital role in securing the Phillies the N.L. East title by making J.Roll into an aggressive base-runner.
The Phillies have had numerous set-backs this season and I wondered how the setbacks were affecting the Phillies totals. First, the Phillies dealt Michael Bourn to the Astros in the Brad Lidge deal, thus losing their fourth outfielder and their primary defensive replacement / pinch-runner. Then Lopes was diagnosed with cancer and took a leave of absence from the team. Finally, Rollins and Victorino both went down during big portions of the month of April. Rollins only just made his return to the lineup Friday night against the San Francisco Giants.
At th
e moment the Phillies top base-stealer is – surprise, surprise – Jayson Werth with six steals in seven tries. Victorino is right behind him with five in six tries, while J.Roll has swiped just two. Collectively the Phillies have 21 steals in 26 attempts (80.7%). The Phillies have also only hit five triples so far this season. Astonishingly, Ryan Howard (1) has out-tripled Jimmy Rollins (0). That will change …
Overall, the Phillies rank ninth in stolen bases and eleventh in triples. The Phillies poor showing in both categories is largely a product of Rollins and Lopes being away from the team. Rollins is already back in the lineup and Davey Lopes ought to re-join the team shortly. I’d expect to see the Phillies get much, much more aggressive on the bases and start to really stretch opposing defenses. It is worth noting that despite the Phillies injuries the team has emerged from April with a winning record and sits, at 21-18, just three games out of first place at the moment. With J.Roll back, look for the Phillies to start positing some big speed numbers to balance their awesome power stats.
Phillies – Braves tomorrow.
(3) comments
Despite losing two of three to the Giants over the weekend, I
think the Phillies are returning a stronger team than they left Philadelphia as. Jimmy Rollins has returned to the roster and extended trips to the West Coast have to be draining on the Phillies. Up next: the Braves and then an inter-league series with the Toronto Blue Jays, a rematch of the 1993 World Series …I wanted to talk a little about speed and the Phillies … There are basically two things we look at to measure speed in baseball: stolen bases and triples. The stolen base is a measure of speed because the player attempting to steal has to traverse the area from first to second while the ball is still within the baseball diamond area. You have to be fast to go from a dead-stop to a run and accomplish that. We also look at triples because players need to be quick to leg out the extra 90 feet to take this from a double to a three-bagger. We usually don’t count doubles because usually doubles are the product of hard-hit balls to distant portions of the ballpark rather than speed.
As those who read sabremetric publications like The Hardball Times or
Baseball Prospectus, or who read Michael Lewis’ Moneyball, know the stolen base isn’t typically a strategy held in high esteem by the sabremetrics community. I’ve often argued that where you stand on the stolen base is a pretty good indication about whether or not you stand on the Catholic or Protestant divide of baseball, the old schoolers or the sabremetricians. To the old school, Small Ballers, the argument for the stolen base is basically this: you’ve got to be aggressive and do little things like bunt, hit-and-run and, yes, steal, to get that extra base to get into position to score and to claw out those runs.The counter-argument is basically that base-stealing is counter-productive because the penalty for being caught stealing out-weighs the benefits. Better to play safer station-to-station baseball, advancing runners with singles, doubles and the mighty home run. Consider this …
According to Baseball Prospectus’ Run Expectancy Matrix (see, Table 4-1.1 of Baseball Between the Numbers), a team with a runner on first and no outs can expect to score 0.9259 runs in an inning. Let’s say that runner attempts to steal second base. There are two possible outcomes:
If he’s safe, the run expectancy matrix improves to 1.1596, an improvement of 0.2337 …
If he’s out, the run expectancy matrix declines to 0.2866, a decline of 0.6393 …
Your position can increase by a quarter of a run, or it can decline by two-thirds of a run. The guys at Baseball Prospectus ran the numbers and determined that a stolen base adds 0.1593 runs to a team’s total, while a caught stealing subtracts 0.3687 runs from a team’s total.
If you play the numbers, the BP guys argue, then stealing bases is a losing strategy unless you can be successful around 73% of the time.
The 2007 Phillies were a remarkable successful team in this respect, successfully stealing 138 bases in 157 tries, for a 88% success rate. Applying the
numbers above, the Phillies added 22 runs to their offense with base-stealing though they lost 7 runs with the caught stealings. Total net gain: 15 runs. The New York Mets, the Phillies competition last season, led the majors with 200 stolen bases, but their aggressive base-running only netted them an extra 15 runs as well because they were caught stealing 46 times (in fact, they were actually a tenth of a run behind the Phillies). While it isn’t conventional sabremetric wisdom, I think that the stolen base was a successful strategy and helped the Phillies improve their offense in ‘07. I think that most of the credit for that belongs to First Base Coach Davey Lopes, who was brought onto the team last season to help Charlie Manuel. Taking players like Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn and Chris Roberson aside, he made them all into aggressive base-runners who stole bases by the bushel. J.Roll and Victorino finished fifth and sixth respectively in terms of stolen bases in the N.L. in 2007, with J.Roll swiping 41 in 47 tries (87.2% success) and Victorino taking 37 of 41 (90.2%). Michael Bourn, in limited playing time, stole 18 of 19 bases (94.7%).Applying BP’s numbers, that meant that J.Roll’s running added 4.32 runs, Victorino added 4.42 runs, and Bourn added 2.50 runs. Compare those totals to that of the Mets Jose Reyes, who led the N.L. in steals with 78 in 99 attempts (78.8%), but whose manic base-running only added 4.68 runs.
Lopes also helped press Jimmy Rollins in the basepaths to leg out more triples. J.Roll, who had previously led the N.L. in triples three times, led the N.L. in triples once again, but he hit 20 in ‘07, eight more than his previous season highs in ’01 and ’04. With Lopes counsel, the Phillies went from eighth in stolen bases in 2006 to second last season, and from sixth in triples to first last season.
Now, one thing that I thought when I looked at the Phillies base-stealing totals was that Lopes tutelage helped the Phillies run the bases well. Well … the Phillies base-running stats yield some interesting facts. While the Phillies over-all gained +104 bases in 2007 with their aggressiveness on the bases, they gained 100 of those 104 via base-stealing. The Phillies rated a +4 based on pure running on the bases according to the 2007 Bill James Handbook … As an aside, I’ll note that the Mets likewise struggled, posting an MLB-best +111, of which all but three were a product of base-stealing … It is kind of an interesting thing: that the two fastest teams in baseball were actually average base-running teams. The best MLB in running the bases in 2007 was, of all teams, the Kansas City Royals at +60. The best team in the N.L. was the Atlanta Braves at +40.
What else? The Phillies made 24 base-running outs, which was pretty average (the N.L. average was 22.6) … Phillies base-runners scored about 29% of the time, a little bit better than the MLB average of 28%.
One way of looking at what Lopes did was to look at the improvements Victorino and Rollins made in ’07 over their ’06 stats. (Not enough data to look at Bourn.) Unfortunately, while there is data on Victorino, there isn’t much. Victorino made a base-running out and was +14 in base-running in ’06. Last season he made four base-running outs and was +36, but James sub-divides base-running (+7) from base-stealing (+29). Looking at Victorino’s numbers, I cannot say that there is anything to support m theory that Lopes influence made the team better, more aggressive base-runners or improved the team in any better.
The numbers are much different with Rollins: in ’06 Rollins was a mere +9 in base-running and made four base-running outs. In ’07, Rollins was a whopping +61. While +29 of that was base-stealing, even more – +32 – was honest-to-goodness base-running. Additionally, Rollins didn’t make a single base-running out. It is difficult to draw conclusions from numbers relating to one player, but it seems likely to me that Lopes influence made Rollins a better threat running the bases and helped make him the 2007 N.L. MVP. Given how critical Rollins play was to the Phillies success last season, then Lopes – it could be argued – played a vital role in securing the Phillies the N.L. East title by making J.Roll into an aggressive base-runner.
The Phillies have had numerous set-backs this season and I wondered how the setbacks were affecting the Phillies totals. First, the Phillies dealt Michael Bourn to the Astros in the Brad Lidge deal, thus losing their fourth outfielder and their primary defensive replacement / pinch-runner. Then Lopes was diagnosed with cancer and took a leave of absence from the team. Finally, Rollins and Victorino both went down during big portions of the month of April. Rollins only just made his return to the lineup Friday night against the San Francisco Giants.
At th
e moment the Phillies top base-stealer is – surprise, surprise – Jayson Werth with six steals in seven tries. Victorino is right behind him with five in six tries, while J.Roll has swiped just two. Collectively the Phillies have 21 steals in 26 attempts (80.7%). The Phillies have also only hit five triples so far this season. Astonishingly, Ryan Howard (1) has out-tripled Jimmy Rollins (0). That will change …Overall, the Phillies rank ninth in stolen bases and eleventh in triples. The Phillies poor showing in both categories is largely a product of Rollins and Lopes being away from the team. Rollins is already back in the lineup and Davey Lopes ought to re-join the team shortly. I’d expect to see the Phillies get much, much more aggressive on the bases and start to really stretch opposing defenses. It is worth noting that despite the Phillies injuries the team has emerged from April with a winning record and sits, at 21-18, just three games out of first place at the moment. With J.Roll back, look for the Phillies to start positing some big speed numbers to balance their awesome power stats.
Phillies – Braves tomorrow.
Labels: Base-Stealing, Bourn, Rollins, Speed, Victorino
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
The Bourn Trade
This is a late post, but a late post is better than a never post ... Last night's 6-4 loss to the Diamondbacks evens the series at 1-1 and saw Randy "Big Unit" Johnson post his 286th career victory, good enough to tie former Phillies great Robin Roberts at 27th all-time. Good work, Randy Johnson. It is unfortunate that Adam Eaton notched his first loss of the season after beginning the year quite well.
Tonight: Micah Owings (4-1, 4.41 ERA) vs. Kyle Kendrick (2-2, 5.01 ERA). Good luck, Kyle.
Prediction: Diamondbacks 8, Phillies 2. Kendrick is done is three innings or less.
Today's topic will be a brief evaluation of the Michael Bourn - Brad Lidge trade between the Phillies and Astros from this off-season and how the trade looks from one month plus into the 2008 season. A little recap: back on November 7 of last year the Phillies and Astros struck up a deal wherein the Phillies shipped Michael Bourn, their fourth outfielder in 2007, to the Astros along with prospect Mike Costanzo and middle reliever Geoff Geary in exchange for Closer Brad Lidge and Infielder Eric Bruntlett. The Phillies, jammed with Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino and Pat Burrell in the outfield, had no room for the speedy Bourn, who had wowed Phillies fans with 18 steals in 19 attempts in 2007. What they needed as a closer to get Brett Myers back into the rotation, thus improving the Phillies pitching staff in a two-for-the-price-one deal.
Reaction was generally mixed. Click here for a piece by Baseball Prospectus' Nate Silver blasting the Phillies for making the deal.
Well, I thought I might take a few moments to discuss how the deal is shaping up at the moment.
What the Astros Got:
Michael Bourn: currently the Astros starting centerfielder. So far this season he's wowed observers with 13 steals in 13 attempts. That means he's stolen 31 bases in 32 attempts the last two seasons combined. At his current pace of base-stealing, Bourn will steal 70-75 bases this season, a pretty nice total. Additionally, Bourn is one of the best defensive centerfielders in the National League. According to Relative Zone Rating (RZR), Bourn is the third-best in the N.L. with an RZR of .965. Bourn is also leading the N.L. in assists with three.
Before you get too impressed by Bourn's stats, let me just print a number that tells you all that you need to know about Bourn's abilities as a lead-off hitter:
.275
That's not Bourn's Batting Average. That's Bourn's On-Base Percentage. .275 ... At the moment Bourn is hitting .194, an absurdly low total with brings down his respectable .100 walks per plate appearance. I think Bourn's problem is that he strikes out waaaay too much: 28 times in 120 plate appearances. This might be a fluke: Bourn's Batting Average on Balls Put Into Play (BA/BIP) is just .234, nearly one hundred points lower than what he did last season with the Phillies: .330. He's going to have to hit better to be a more viable threat to steal bases and score runs. Despite those 13 steals, Bourn's scored just 14 runs, a pretty small total in my opinion. It is too soon to liken Bourn to Vince Coleman, the speedy outfielder who was the 1985 Rookie of the Year with the St. Louis Cardinals when he stole 110 bases but posted an anemic .320 OBP. Coleman was a fast player (he led the National League in stolen bases six consecutive seasons from 1985 to 1990), but he was hampered by his inability to get on base. His career OBP was just .324. Bourn is shaping up to be a speed demon who doesn't get on base enough.
Geoff Geary: Geary is having a solid season with the Astros, having tossed 14 innings with a 0-1 record and an ERA of 1.93. Geary's numbers are interesting because he's struck 15 batters out and walked eight, both are high numbers. Can a relief pitcher continue to keep giving batters free passes and then blow fastballs past them? I am skeptical, but at the moment Geary is the biggest part of the Lidge deal to actually be contributing to the Astros.
Mike Costanzo: this part of the deal is a little tough to evaluate because Costanzo was shipped back east to Baltimore as part of the Miguel Tejada deal. We'll start with Costanzo, who is currently playing with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides in the International League, and has struggled a little this season, with three home runs and nine RBI. His OPS is just .696. This is a big drop-off from the 27 home runs and 86 RBI he had in Double-A Reading last season. Costanzo's future potential is considerable, however, so don't be surprised to see him produce for the Orioles in 2008 and beyond.
Tejada, if you want to include him in the deal, has hit five home runs and 25 RBI and is powering the Astros offense. Costanzo's addition, which helped to bring Tejada's, might be the biggest part of the deal for the Astros, though Geary's impact clearly seems to be the most significant.
What the Phillies Got:
Brad Lidge: has been quite good as the Phillies closer since he returned from his pre-season knee injury. Lidge is currently 1-0 with an ERA of 0.00 and seven saves in seven tries. Naturally, Lidge's performance isn't sustainable, but he's gotten quite a few strikeouts (13 in 15 innings of work, or 7.8 K/9) although his walk rate (6 walks, or 3.6 BB/9) is very high as well. Lidge should save 35-40 games for the Phillies and give the team the reliable closer it needs to make a push on the N.L. East.
Eric Bruntlett: since Jimmy Rollins went down, Bruntlett has filled in as the Phillies starting shortstop and has done a decent job. Sort of a throw-in piece to the deal to give it some balance, Bruntlett has been pressed into service as the Phillies starting shortstop with 2007 N.L. MVP Jimmy Rollins on the D.L. Bruntlett's performance initially was bad (four errors in the field, an On Base Percentage of just .296), but he's improved of late. In games 1 & 2 of this series with the D-Backs, Bruntlett has two runs score, six RBI and a double, a triple and a home run on four-for-ten hitting.
Analysis: Time will tell how Bourn, et al. for Lidge, et al. impact the Phillies and Astros. Will Lidge be in a Phillies uniform in 2009? Will Bourn turn around, post a .300+ batting average and get on base enough to steal 100 or more bases? Will Geary struggle? Will Bruntlett turn into an effective middle-infielder? Will Costanzo get to Camden Yards, go on a tear and ultimately make the Orioles the real winners of this deal? Time shall tell.
Tonight: Micah Owings (4-1, 4.41 ERA) vs. Kyle Kendrick (2-2, 5.01 ERA). Good luck, Kyle.
Prediction: Diamondbacks 8, Phillies 2. Kendrick is done is three innings or less.
Today's topic will be a brief evaluation of the Michael Bourn - Brad Lidge trade between the Phillies and Astros from this off-season and how the trade looks from one month plus into the 2008 season. A little recap: back on November 7 of last year the Phillies and Astros struck up a deal wherein the Phillies shipped Michael Bourn, their fourth outfielder in 2007, to the Astros along with prospect Mike Costanzo and middle reliever Geoff Geary in exchange for Closer Brad Lidge and Infielder Eric Bruntlett. The Phillies, jammed with Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino and Pat Burrell in the outfield, had no room for the speedy Bourn, who had wowed Phillies fans with 18 steals in 19 attempts in 2007. What they needed as a closer to get Brett Myers back into the rotation, thus improving the Phillies pitching staff in a two-for-the-price-one deal.
Reaction was generally mixed. Click here for a piece by Baseball Prospectus' Nate Silver blasting the Phillies for making the deal.
Well, I thought I might take a few moments to discuss how the deal is shaping up at the moment.
What the Astros Got:
Michael Bourn: currently the Astros starting centerfielder. So far this season he's wowed observers with 13 steals in 13 attempts. That means he's stolen 31 bases in 32 attempts the last two seasons combined. At his current pace of base-stealing, Bourn will steal 70-75 bases this season, a pretty nice total. Additionally, Bourn is one of the best defensive centerfielders in the National League. According to Relative Zone Rating (RZR), Bourn is the third-best in the N.L. with an RZR of .965. Bourn is also leading the N.L. in assists with three.
Before you get too impressed by Bourn's stats, let me just print a number that tells you all that you need to know about Bourn's abilities as a lead-off hitter:
.275
That's not Bourn's Batting Average. That's Bourn's On-Base Percentage. .275 ... At the moment Bourn is hitting .194, an absurdly low total with brings down his respectable .100 walks per plate appearance. I think Bourn's problem is that he strikes out waaaay too much: 28 times in 120 plate appearances. This might be a fluke: Bourn's Batting Average on Balls Put Into Play (BA/BIP) is just .234, nearly one hundred points lower than what he did last season with the Phillies: .330. He's going to have to hit better to be a more viable threat to steal bases and score runs. Despite those 13 steals, Bourn's scored just 14 runs, a pretty small total in my opinion. It is too soon to liken Bourn to Vince Coleman, the speedy outfielder who was the 1985 Rookie of the Year with the St. Louis Cardinals when he stole 110 bases but posted an anemic .320 OBP. Coleman was a fast player (he led the National League in stolen bases six consecutive seasons from 1985 to 1990), but he was hampered by his inability to get on base. His career OBP was just .324. Bourn is shaping up to be a speed demon who doesn't get on base enough.
Geoff Geary: Geary is having a solid season with the Astros, having tossed 14 innings with a 0-1 record and an ERA of 1.93. Geary's numbers are interesting because he's struck 15 batters out and walked eight, both are high numbers. Can a relief pitcher continue to keep giving batters free passes and then blow fastballs past them? I am skeptical, but at the moment Geary is the biggest part of the Lidge deal to actually be contributing to the Astros.
Mike Costanzo: this part of the deal is a little tough to evaluate because Costanzo was shipped back east to Baltimore as part of the Miguel Tejada deal. We'll start with Costanzo, who is currently playing with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides in the International League, and has struggled a little this season, with three home runs and nine RBI. His OPS is just .696. This is a big drop-off from the 27 home runs and 86 RBI he had in Double-A Reading last season. Costanzo's future potential is considerable, however, so don't be surprised to see him produce for the Orioles in 2008 and beyond.
Tejada, if you want to include him in the deal, has hit five home runs and 25 RBI and is powering the Astros offense. Costanzo's addition, which helped to bring Tejada's, might be the biggest part of the deal for the Astros, though Geary's impact clearly seems to be the most significant.
What the Phillies Got:
Brad Lidge: has been quite good as the Phillies closer since he returned from his pre-season knee injury. Lidge is currently 1-0 with an ERA of 0.00 and seven saves in seven tries. Naturally, Lidge's performance isn't sustainable, but he's gotten quite a few strikeouts (13 in 15 innings of work, or 7.8 K/9) although his walk rate (6 walks, or 3.6 BB/9) is very high as well. Lidge should save 35-40 games for the Phillies and give the team the reliable closer it needs to make a push on the N.L. East.
Eric Bruntlett: since Jimmy Rollins went down, Bruntlett has filled in as the Phillies starting shortstop and has done a decent job. Sort of a throw-in piece to the deal to give it some balance, Bruntlett has been pressed into service as the Phillies starting shortstop with 2007 N.L. MVP Jimmy Rollins on the D.L. Bruntlett's performance initially was bad (four errors in the field, an On Base Percentage of just .296), but he's improved of late. In games 1 & 2 of this series with the D-Backs, Bruntlett has two runs score, six RBI and a double, a triple and a home run on four-for-ten hitting.
Analysis: Time will tell how Bourn, et al. for Lidge, et al. impact the Phillies and Astros. Will Lidge be in a Phillies uniform in 2009? Will Bourn turn around, post a .300+ batting average and get on base enough to steal 100 or more bases? Will Geary struggle? Will Bruntlett turn into an effective middle-infielder? Will Costanzo get to Camden Yards, go on a tear and ultimately make the Orioles the real winners of this deal? Time shall tell.
Labels: Bourn, Bruntlett, Bullpen, Geary, Lidge, Minors, Pitching, Speed, State of the Phillies
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
The Diamondbacks Series & Jeremy Slayden
From my perspective here is the remarkable thing about last night's 11-4 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks in the desert of the American Southwest: the Phillies didn't hit a single home run.
For those too bleary-eyed to stay up last night (or are too fixated on the Flyers impending series against the Pittsburgh Penguins) the Phillies defeated the Diamondbacks, the best team in the majors right now, 11-4 thanks to 17 hits and a nice outing from Jamie Moyer (seven innings pitched, two runs allowed, five strikeouts and zero walks). The victory kept the Phillies in first place and gave them a win to lead off their seven game road stand. As of this morning the Phillies own the N.L. East by a game:
N.L. East
1. Phillies: 19-14
2. Florida: 17-14 (1.0 Games Back)
3. Mets: 16-14 (1.5 Games Back)
4. Braves: 15-15 (2.5 Games Back)
5. Nationals: 14-18 (4.5 Games Back)
As I noted, the Phillies clocked 17 hits and not one was a home run. You know it is a good night at the plate when your pitcher (Moyer) goes 2-for-3 with a double and an RBI. Even more remarkable: Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell combined to go 1-for-9. Yes, it was a good night in the desert.
Tonight it is Adam Eaton vs. Randy Johnson. Read my post from yesterday to gain a better sense of the quasi-remarkable season that Eaton is having. Eaton will be hard-pressed to notch his first win of the season though against the Big Unit, who is pitching a lot better than his stats suggest: 1-1, 4.79 ERA. Johnson's DIPS ERA is 3.84, which is nearly a run better. The simple problem is that the D-Backs aren't playing good enough defense behind him. They've converted just 68.3% of the balls Johnson has allowed to be put into play into outs. Johnson is, as always, a formidable strikeout pitcher: 22 strikeouts in 20 and two-thirds of an inning of work. This is a mismatch that heavily favors the D-Backs.
Nice post on yesterday's game from the Inquirer's Todd Zolecki.
Quick look at a minor-leaguer of note: Jeremy Slayden. An eighth round pick in the 2005 Draft out of Georgia Tech, Slayden hasn't caught the attention of publications like Baseball America or has really registered in the minds of most fans. That's a shame because Slayden is a real talent:
w/ Double-A Reading ('08): OPS: .903 / HR: 3 / RBI: 20 / Doubles: 7 / OBP: .386 / ISO: .197
w/ Single-A Clearwater ('07): OPS: .834 / HR: 14 / RBI: 73 / Doubles: 24 / OBP: .376 / ISO: .171
w/ Single-A Lakewood ('06): OPS: .891 / HR: 10 / RBI: 81 / Doubles: 44 / OBP: .381 / ISO: .200
Even in the pitching-friendly Florida State League (FSL), Slayden mashed the heck out of the ball. He's one of those players who doesn't get a lot of ink because he wasn't highly drafted, he isn't flashy and pro scouts likely have a low opinion of his abilities. "Slow-footed slugger" is probably the most commonly written description of Slayden in the notebooks of scouts.
Slayden's rise through the Phillies system is a testament to the idea that a player's performance trumps the assumptions made. Perhaps Jeremy Slayden is a slow-footed slugger, but he wields a powerful bat. You'll see him in Philadelphia later this year, or early next.
For those too bleary-eyed to stay up last night (or are too fixated on the Flyers impending series against the Pittsburgh Penguins) the Phillies defeated the Diamondbacks, the best team in the majors right now, 11-4 thanks to 17 hits and a nice outing from Jamie Moyer (seven innings pitched, two runs allowed, five strikeouts and zero walks). The victory kept the Phillies in first place and gave them a win to lead off their seven game road stand. As of this morning the Phillies own the N.L. East by a game:
N.L. East
1. Phillies: 19-14
2. Florida: 17-14 (1.0 Games Back)
3. Mets: 16-14 (1.5 Games Back)
4. Braves: 15-15 (2.5 Games Back)
5. Nationals: 14-18 (4.5 Games Back)
As I noted, the Phillies clocked 17 hits and not one was a home run. You know it is a good night at the plate when your pitcher (Moyer) goes 2-for-3 with a double and an RBI. Even more remarkable: Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell combined to go 1-for-9. Yes, it was a good night in the desert.
Tonight it is Adam Eaton vs. Randy Johnson. Read my post from yesterday to gain a better sense of the quasi-remarkable season that Eaton is having. Eaton will be hard-pressed to notch his first win of the season though against the Big Unit, who is pitching a lot better than his stats suggest: 1-1, 4.79 ERA. Johnson's DIPS ERA is 3.84, which is nearly a run better. The simple problem is that the D-Backs aren't playing good enough defense behind him. They've converted just 68.3% of the balls Johnson has allowed to be put into play into outs. Johnson is, as always, a formidable strikeout pitcher: 22 strikeouts in 20 and two-thirds of an inning of work. This is a mismatch that heavily favors the D-Backs.
Nice post on yesterday's game from the Inquirer's Todd Zolecki.
Quick look at a minor-leaguer of note: Jeremy Slayden. An eighth round pick in the 2005 Draft out of Georgia Tech, Slayden hasn't caught the attention of publications like Baseball America or has really registered in the minds of most fans. That's a shame because Slayden is a real talent:
w/ Double-A Reading ('08): OPS: .903 / HR: 3 / RBI: 20 / Doubles: 7 / OBP: .386 / ISO: .197
w/ Single-A Clearwater ('07): OPS: .834 / HR: 14 / RBI: 73 / Doubles: 24 / OBP: .376 / ISO: .171
w/ Single-A Lakewood ('06): OPS: .891 / HR: 10 / RBI: 81 / Doubles: 44 / OBP: .381 / ISO: .200
Even in the pitching-friendly Florida State League (FSL), Slayden mashed the heck out of the ball. He's one of those players who doesn't get a lot of ink because he wasn't highly drafted, he isn't flashy and pro scouts likely have a low opinion of his abilities. "Slow-footed slugger" is probably the most commonly written description of Slayden in the notebooks of scouts.
Slayden's rise through the Phillies system is a testament to the idea that a player's performance trumps the assumptions made. Perhaps Jeremy Slayden is a slow-footed slugger, but he wields a powerful bat. You'll see him in Philadelphia later this year, or early next.
Labels: Eaton, Minors, Moyer, Slayden
Monday, May 05, 2008
Adam Eaton Rocks & Phillies vs. Diamondbacks
Okay, the title is a little tongue-in-cheek, but it is partly true. Don’t look now Phillies fans but Adam Eaton, the disaster who had a 6.29 ERA last season, the guy who was pitching so bad that the Phillies left him off their playoff roster with the Colorado Rockies despite the fact that the Phillies are paying him $24 million dollars over the next three seasons … Isn’t pitching half bad this season.
Let’s take you back to a year ago. In the 2006-2007 off-season the Phillies signed Eaton, a former Phillies draft pick the team had sent west to the San Diego Padres in a trade years earlier, to a three-year, $24 million dollar deal (someone correct me if the numbers are off on that figure). In a pitching-thin marketplace, Eaton was one of the better talents out there, having gone 7-4 with a 5.12 ERA the previous season with the Texas Rangers. Eaton, who had spent the previous six seasons with the Padres after breaking in during the ’00 season, had started just thirteen games for the Rangers and had given up 11 home runs. He struggled, but had put up good numbers from ’00 – ’05 for the Padres and the Phillies desperately wanted to augment their leaky pitching staff. So the red pinstripes cut a check and Eaton came back to the team that saw enough in him to take him in the draft.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined with respect to pitching stats:
Earned Run Average (ERA): Runs Allowed * 9 / Innings Pitched = What a pitcher would give up if they hurled a nine-inning game.
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): (((13 * HR) + (3 * BB) – (2 * K)) / IP) + League Factor. Basically a measure of how a pitcher would have done if he had an average defense behind him.
Defense Independent Pitching Statistic (DIPS): The more sophisticated version of FIP developed by Voros McCracken that takes into account park factors and other considerations.
Home Runs per 9 Innings (HR/9): (HR * 9) / IP
Walks per 9 Innings (BB/9): (BB * 9) / IP
Strikeouts per 9 Innings (K/9): (K * 9) / IP
The end result was disaster. A 10-10 record that was largely the product of run support, as it was built on an ERA of 6.29. Eaton walked 71 hitters (3.95 BB/9) and gave up 30 home runs (1.67 HR/9). Opponents grounded into 19 double plays against him, more a product of them having so many runners on base than Eaton’s skills. Eaton’s 97 strikeouts in 161 and two-thirds of an inning (5.4 K/9) were respectable, but when coupled with his walk rate, they gave him a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1.37 (K/BB). Eaton was so bad that he earned just one Win Share in 2007, two below what a bench player would have earned. (In contrast, Cole Hamels earned 15 in 2007.) The Phillies, in the playoffs despite Eaton’s struggles, took no chances and left Eaton off the team’s playoff roster against the Rockies. In the off-season the team tried everything they could think of to scrap together pitching talent on the cheap, taking Travis Blackley from San Francisco in the Rule 5 Draft, and signing Chad Durbin from the Detroit Tigers. Neither Blackley nor Durbin could oust Eaton from the job, however, and Eaton returned to the Phillies rotation for 2008.
The numbers don’t really reflect it, but Eaton’s been pretty good this season: yeah he doesn’t have a win yet, but he also doesn’t have a loss. His six starts were all no-decisions. There are a few things that impress me though once you look inside of the numbers:
First off, Eaton’s average Game Score for this season has been 48. His average Game Score in 2007 was 42. Game Score is a stat devised by Bill James where a pitcher begins with a score of 50 and then is awarded or subtracted points for various events: add a point for a strikeout, subtract one for a walk, subtract four points for a run allowed, etc.
Second, four of Eaton’s six starts have been Quality Starts. A Quality Start is a start where the pitcher allows three or less runs and makes it six innings or more. Eaton tossed just 9 of those in 30 starts last season.
The reason for Eaton’s success this season has been that he’s cut down on the extra-base hits. Eaton’s slugging percentage allowed is just .402, far less than the .520 he allowed in 2007. So far this season he’s allowed three home runs in 34 and one-third of an inning (0.79 HR/9). As a result, Eaton’s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA has dropped this season to 4.09, nearly two runs better than last season’s 5.93 FIP. Incidentially, Eaton’s 4.09 FIP is just behind the 4.00 FIP posted by a certain Mets pitcher who we’ll call Johan S. … And Eaton's FIP is better than the Mets John Maine (4.71), the much-vaunted pitcher who Mets fans acted like I was crazy for believing wasn't the Second Coming.
What about DIPS, you ask? Well, Eaton's DIPS is a little worse: 4.35. Still, that's better than his real ERA and takes park factors into account. Additionally, Eaton's DIPS is better than Oliver Perez (4.38), Maine (4.86), Jamie Moyer (4.82) and the Giants Matt Cain (4.63).
It is a little too soon to hand out the Cy Young award to Eaton, however. He needs to improve his strikeout and walk ratios before he can be called out of the woods. His K/BB ratio this season is 1.46, barely improved over last season.
The inability to get strikeouts is where Eaton has struggled over the last few seasons. In Eaton’s first six seasons with the Padres his strikeouts per nine innings rate was 6.00 or better:
K/9:
2000: 6.00
2001: 8.41
2002: 6.75
2003: 7.18
2004: 6.91
2005: 7.00
Since then he’s been sub-6.00:
K/9:
2006 (Rangers): 5.95
2007 (Phillies): 5.40
2008 (Phillies): 5.34
He needs to improve that, and soon.
Here’s a little-known fact about Adam Eaton: there probably isn’t a pitcher in baseball tougher to get a steal off of. In 2007 fifteen baserunners tried to steal a base off Eaton. Nine failed, a success rate of just 40%. The previous season, in Texas, two in seven were successful. So far this season: one successful steal in three tries.
I had almost forgotten, but the Phillies begin a big four-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight in the desert of Arizona, the start of a week-long roadtrip that will take the Phillies to the Bay Area to play the Giants again. Cole Hamels and Tim Lincecum are set to rematch Friday Night after last night’s 6-5 Phillies win netted a no-decision for both pitchers.
I would consider a 2-2 split of the Phillies – Diamondbacks series to be a major victory for the Phillies. The 21-10 D-Backs are clearly the best team in baseball right now and boast the best pitching staff in the majors. How good is the D-Backs 1-2 punch of Brandon Webb (7-0, 2.49 ERA, 3.00 DIPS) and Dan Haren (4-1, 3.12 ERA, 3.34 DIPS)? Fortunately for the Phillies, they miss Haren and have to face just Webb in this series. Adam Eaton squares off with the Big Unit (1-1, 4.79 ERA, 3.84 DIPS) tomorrow night. The D-Backs are second in the N.L. in runs scored and lead the N.L. in slugging percentage and triples. Not surprisingly, their team ERA is also best in the majors. They have a number of talented players who are really producing well and they rely on no one person to be successful. While the D-Backs have hit 36 home runs, nobody has hit more than 7. They are balanced and deep. Young, fast, aggressive, the D-Backs are built to be a powerhouse for a long time to come. This will be a tough series for the Phillies to win. If I had to bet on which game the phillies could win, I’d bet on tonight’s Jamie Moyer vs. Max Scherzer matchup.
Tomorrow: I’ll talk a little about last night’s game and a little about the Reading Phillies Jeremy Slayden.
(3) comments
Let’s take you back to a year ago. In the 2006-2007 off-season the Phillies signed Eaton, a former Phillies draft pick the team had sent west to the San Diego Padres in a trade years earlier, to a three-year, $24 million dollar deal (someone correct me if the numbers are off on that figure). In a pitching-thin marketplace, Eaton was one of the better talents out there, having gone 7-4 with a 5.12 ERA the previous season with the Texas Rangers. Eaton, who had spent the previous six seasons with the Padres after breaking in during the ’00 season, had started just thirteen games for the Rangers and had given up 11 home runs. He struggled, but had put up good numbers from ’00 – ’05 for the Padres and the Phillies desperately wanted to augment their leaky pitching staff. So the red pinstripes cut a check and Eaton came back to the team that saw enough in him to take him in the draft.
Confused about what I’m talking about? Here are the stats I refer to defined with respect to pitching stats:
Earned Run Average (ERA): Runs Allowed * 9 / Innings Pitched = What a pitcher would give up if they hurled a nine-inning game.
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): (((13 * HR) + (3 * BB) – (2 * K)) / IP) + League Factor. Basically a measure of how a pitcher would have done if he had an average defense behind him.
Defense Independent Pitching Statistic (DIPS): The more sophisticated version of FIP developed by Voros McCracken that takes into account park factors and other considerations.
Home Runs per 9 Innings (HR/9): (HR * 9) / IP
Walks per 9 Innings (BB/9): (BB * 9) / IP
Strikeouts per 9 Innings (K/9): (K * 9) / IP
The end result was disaster. A 10-10 record that was largely the product of run support, as it was built on an ERA of 6.29. Eaton walked 71 hitters (3.95 BB/9) and gave up 30 home runs (1.67 HR/9). Opponents grounded into 19 double plays against him, more a product of them having so many runners on base than Eaton’s skills. Eaton’s 97 strikeouts in 161 and two-thirds of an inning (5.4 K/9) were respectable, but when coupled with his walk rate, they gave him a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1.37 (K/BB). Eaton was so bad that he earned just one Win Share in 2007, two below what a bench player would have earned. (In contrast, Cole Hamels earned 15 in 2007.) The Phillies, in the playoffs despite Eaton’s struggles, took no chances and left Eaton off the team’s playoff roster against the Rockies. In the off-season the team tried everything they could think of to scrap together pitching talent on the cheap, taking Travis Blackley from San Francisco in the Rule 5 Draft, and signing Chad Durbin from the Detroit Tigers. Neither Blackley nor Durbin could oust Eaton from the job, however, and Eaton returned to the Phillies rotation for 2008.
The numbers don’t really reflect it, but Eaton’s been pretty good this season: yeah he doesn’t have a win yet, but he also doesn’t have a loss. His six starts were all no-decisions. There are a few things that impress me though once you look inside of the numbers:
First off, Eaton’s average Game Score for this season has been 48. His average Game Score in 2007 was 42. Game Score is a stat devised by Bill James where a pitcher begins with a score of 50 and then is awarded or subtracted points for various events: add a point for a strikeout, subtract one for a walk, subtract four points for a run allowed, etc.
Second, four of Eaton’s six starts have been Quality Starts. A Quality Start is a start where the pitcher allows three or less runs and makes it six innings or more. Eaton tossed just 9 of those in 30 starts last season.
The reason for Eaton’s success this season has been that he’s cut down on the extra-base hits. Eaton’s slugging percentage allowed is just .402, far less than the .520 he allowed in 2007. So far this season he’s allowed three home runs in 34 and one-third of an inning (0.79 HR/9). As a result, Eaton’s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA has dropped this season to 4.09, nearly two runs better than last season’s 5.93 FIP. Incidentially, Eaton’s 4.09 FIP is just behind the 4.00 FIP posted by a certain Mets pitcher who we’ll call Johan S. … And Eaton's FIP is better than the Mets John Maine (4.71), the much-vaunted pitcher who Mets fans acted like I was crazy for believing wasn't the Second Coming.
What about DIPS, you ask? Well, Eaton's DIPS is a little worse: 4.35. Still, that's better than his real ERA and takes park factors into account. Additionally, Eaton's DIPS is better than Oliver Perez (4.38), Maine (4.86), Jamie Moyer (4.82) and the Giants Matt Cain (4.63).
It is a little too soon to hand out the Cy Young award to Eaton, however. He needs to improve his strikeout and walk ratios before he can be called out of the woods. His K/BB ratio this season is 1.46, barely improved over last season.
The inability to get strikeouts is where Eaton has struggled over the last few seasons. In Eaton’s first six seasons with the Padres his strikeouts per nine innings rate was 6.00 or better:
K/9:
2000: 6.00
2001: 8.41
2002: 6.75
2003: 7.18
2004: 6.91
2005: 7.00
Since then he’s been sub-6.00:
K/9:
2006 (Rangers): 5.95
2007 (Phillies): 5.40
2008 (Phillies): 5.34
He needs to improve that, and soon.
Here’s a little-known fact about Adam Eaton: there probably isn’t a pitcher in baseball tougher to get a steal off of. In 2007 fifteen baserunners tried to steal a base off Eaton. Nine failed, a success rate of just 40%. The previous season, in Texas, two in seven were successful. So far this season: one successful steal in three tries.
I had almost forgotten, but the Phillies begin a big four-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight in the desert of Arizona, the start of a week-long roadtrip that will take the Phillies to the Bay Area to play the Giants again. Cole Hamels and Tim Lincecum are set to rematch Friday Night after last night’s 6-5 Phillies win netted a no-decision for both pitchers.
I would consider a 2-2 split of the Phillies – Diamondbacks series to be a major victory for the Phillies. The 21-10 D-Backs are clearly the best team in baseball right now and boast the best pitching staff in the majors. How good is the D-Backs 1-2 punch of Brandon Webb (7-0, 2.49 ERA, 3.00 DIPS) and Dan Haren (4-1, 3.12 ERA, 3.34 DIPS)? Fortunately for the Phillies, they miss Haren and have to face just Webb in this series. Adam Eaton squares off with the Big Unit (1-1, 4.79 ERA, 3.84 DIPS) tomorrow night. The D-Backs are second in the N.L. in runs scored and lead the N.L. in slugging percentage and triples. Not surprisingly, their team ERA is also best in the majors. They have a number of talented players who are really producing well and they rely on no one person to be successful. While the D-Backs have hit 36 home runs, nobody has hit more than 7. They are balanced and deep. Young, fast, aggressive, the D-Backs are built to be a powerhouse for a long time to come. This will be a tough series for the Phillies to win. If I had to bet on which game the phillies could win, I’d bet on tonight’s Jamie Moyer vs. Max Scherzer matchup.
Tomorrow: I’ll talk a little about last night’s game and a little about the Reading Phillies Jeremy Slayden.
Labels: Blackley, Durbin, Eaton, Hamels, Moyer, Pitching, Rotation
Friday, May 02, 2008
Phillies Notes
First of all, let me lead off by noting that I haven't been posting for a week. I got kind of burned out from thinking about the Phillies last week and I needed a quick break. This week ahead prepare for a solid, five-post week on the Phillies. Sometimes I just need a quick break to get re-inspired.
Well, the Phillies managed to escape the month of April with a winning record for the first time since they went 16-12 in April, 2003. Their 15-13 record won't make Mets and Braves fans weep, but it is - combined with yesterday's 3-2 win over the Padres - enough to give the Phillies sole possession for first place in the N.L. East this morning, a half-game better than the Mets and Florida Marlins. The Braves sit three back at 12-15.
Last April the Phillies really survived a major crisis when they got off to the 4-11 start and saw the team come close to imploding: they lost their closer, suffered catastrophic injuries and their manager had a major meltdown. This April has been another crisis averted: Brad Lidge went down before the season started, the Phillies saw the 2007 N.L. MVP miss nearly the entire month with injuries, and starting center fielder Shane Victorino missed time too. Still, the team has survived and found itself sitting in first place, displaying real grit and determination.
What of the mighty Mets? Well, Jose Reyes is struggling badly with a .307 OBP and three caught stealings in nine tries. Carlos Delgado has an OPS of .620. On the pitching side, while Johan Santana has been as good as advertised - although his Fielding Independent ERA is 4.00, partly a product of the surprisingly high number of home runs he's allowed this season - the rest of the Mets pitchers are struggling badly. Oliver Perez and John Maine have allowed nearly as many walks as strikeouts and Pedro has made just one start. Looks like the Phillies are still the team to beat.
Keep an eye on the Braves, despite their sub-.500 record. John Smoltz and Tom Glavine have ERAs below 3.00 (2.00 for Smoltz and 2.60 for Glavine) and Tim Hudson is pitching well. As soon as Chuck James (7.62 ERA) works out his issues and the Braves get a little more solid at the plate, they'll start winning and outdistance the Mets. The key, I think, for the Braves is Mark Teixeira. The Braves need him to step up his performance and get more extra-base hits. Once Teixeira begins to produce, the Braves will finally have an offense to match their pitching staff.
The return of Shane Victorino to the Phillies lineup is welcome. As a team the Phillies are really struggling to steal bases and hit triples. At the moment they've stolen just 12 bases in 17 tries and they've hit just three triples. Once J.Roll returns and Victorino gets his groove on, the Phillies will finally have the speed to challenge the opposition. They've already hit an astonishing 42 home runs, but they cannot continue to rely on the long ball exclusively to score runs. One of the keys to the Phillies success in 2007 was that they were ruthlessly efficient in stretching the defense with a lot of successful steals and triples.
Here is a scary thought, Mets and Braves fans: the Phillies success in hitting home runs is partly because Chase Utley (11) and Pat Burrell (8) are on a major tear. Ryan Howard has hit just 6 this season, a low total. Once Howard begins hitting home runs the Phillies could have three 40+ home run guys on their roster. Yikes.
Giants vs. Phillies. The Phillies continue the second half of their six game homestand against N.L. West teams with a three game series against the San Francisco Giants. This will be the first time the Phillies have faced off with former Phillie center fielder Aaron Rowand. The 13-16 Giants are playing well in Year One of A.B. (After Barry.) These are going to be some rough years for Giants fans. They have an old team built around the idea of making a last run on the World Series for Bonds and nearly zero talent in their farm system. Right now they are riding their pitching staff and they are lucky to have some real talent there. Sunday is going to feature a terrific pitching duel between Cole Hamels (3-3, 2.70 ERA) and Tim Lincecum (4-1, 1.73 ERA). Lincecum and Matt Cain (Brett Myers foe Saturday night) are very good hurlers and will help keep the Giants competitive while they rebuild.
Offensively the Giants have moved far, far away from Barryball. They've hit just 16 home runs, but they've stole 33 bases so far. Interestingly, their top base-stealer has just six, so they really run a balanced speed game. As for Rowand: he's hitting .326 but his OBP is only .366. He's also hit just 2 home runs and 14 RBI. His production is going to fall off as the season progresses and he gets less and less lucky in putting the ball into play. The Phillies may miss his intensity, but they won't miss his bat. At all.
Minors Update. The Lehigh Valley IronPigs, the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, is off to a 3-24 start - yes you read that right: three wins and twenty-four losses - in International League play. As a team the IronPigs are dead-last in the IL in OPS (at .573 they are over one hundred points worse than the next-worst team, the Columbus Clippers) and in ERA. Travis Blackley is 0-3 with a 6.64 ERA and Jason Durbin is 0-5 with a 9.61 ERA. The IronPigs big power slugger, Brennan King, is hitting .204 with just one home run and five RBIs.
The Phillies two hot prospects at Lehigh Valley, Jason Jamarillo and J.A. Happ, are on different tracks. J.A. Happ is 0-3, but has actually pitched well: he has an ERA of 3.51 and has struck out 37 hitters in 33 and one-thirds of an inning. Happ has largely been done in by the fact that the IronPigs are awful. Happ might still earn a call-up with the Phillies if Kendrick struggles.
The highly touted Jason Jamarillo has some issues: .193 Batting Average, 2 Home Runs, 3 RBI. I'd say that Chris Coste's job as the backup catcher is very safe.
Over in Berks County, the Reading Phillies are 13-12 and sit three games out of first place in the Eastern League's Southern Division. Outfielder Gregory Golson is off to a terrific start: .320 batting average, 6 doubles, 2 triples, 2 home runs and 15 RBI and eight steals in eleven tries in twenty-five games. Jeremy Slayden, the powerful outfielder who I think is vastly under-rated by scouts and pundits, is hitting .310 with three home runs, twenty RBI and seven doubles.
In Clearwater the Threshers are 9-17 and sit in the Florida State League's Western division's cellar. Prospects Adrian Cardenas and Joe Savery are doing well: Savery has a 2.92 ERA and Cardenas is hitting .347. Finally, over at the Jersey Shore, the Lakewood Blue Claws are 13-13.
Monday, more!
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Well, the Phillies managed to escape the month of April with a winning record for the first time since they went 16-12 in April, 2003. Their 15-13 record won't make Mets and Braves fans weep, but it is - combined with yesterday's 3-2 win over the Padres - enough to give the Phillies sole possession for first place in the N.L. East this morning, a half-game better than the Mets and Florida Marlins. The Braves sit three back at 12-15.
Last April the Phillies really survived a major crisis when they got off to the 4-11 start and saw the team come close to imploding: they lost their closer, suffered catastrophic injuries and their manager had a major meltdown. This April has been another crisis averted: Brad Lidge went down before the season started, the Phillies saw the 2007 N.L. MVP miss nearly the entire month with injuries, and starting center fielder Shane Victorino missed time too. Still, the team has survived and found itself sitting in first place, displaying real grit and determination.
What of the mighty Mets? Well, Jose Reyes is struggling badly with a .307 OBP and three caught stealings in nine tries. Carlos Delgado has an OPS of .620. On the pitching side, while Johan Santana has been as good as advertised - although his Fielding Independent ERA is 4.00, partly a product of the surprisingly high number of home runs he's allowed this season - the rest of the Mets pitchers are struggling badly. Oliver Perez and John Maine have allowed nearly as many walks as strikeouts and Pedro has made just one start. Looks like the Phillies are still the team to beat.
Keep an eye on the Braves, despite their sub-.500 record. John Smoltz and Tom Glavine have ERAs below 3.00 (2.00 for Smoltz and 2.60 for Glavine) and Tim Hudson is pitching well. As soon as Chuck James (7.62 ERA) works out his issues and the Braves get a little more solid at the plate, they'll start winning and outdistance the Mets. The key, I think, for the Braves is Mark Teixeira. The Braves need him to step up his performance and get more extra-base hits. Once Teixeira begins to produce, the Braves will finally have an offense to match their pitching staff.
The return of Shane Victorino to the Phillies lineup is welcome. As a team the Phillies are really struggling to steal bases and hit triples. At the moment they've stolen just 12 bases in 17 tries and they've hit just three triples. Once J.Roll returns and Victorino gets his groove on, the Phillies will finally have the speed to challenge the opposition. They've already hit an astonishing 42 home runs, but they cannot continue to rely on the long ball exclusively to score runs. One of the keys to the Phillies success in 2007 was that they were ruthlessly efficient in stretching the defense with a lot of successful steals and triples.
Here is a scary thought, Mets and Braves fans: the Phillies success in hitting home runs is partly because Chase Utley (11) and Pat Burrell (8) are on a major tear. Ryan Howard has hit just 6 this season, a low total. Once Howard begins hitting home runs the Phillies could have three 40+ home run guys on their roster. Yikes.
Giants vs. Phillies. The Phillies continue the second half of their six game homestand against N.L. West teams with a three game series against the San Francisco Giants. This will be the first time the Phillies have faced off with former Phillie center fielder Aaron Rowand. The 13-16 Giants are playing well in Year One of A.B. (After Barry.) These are going to be some rough years for Giants fans. They have an old team built around the idea of making a last run on the World Series for Bonds and nearly zero talent in their farm system. Right now they are riding their pitching staff and they are lucky to have some real talent there. Sunday is going to feature a terrific pitching duel between Cole Hamels (3-3, 2.70 ERA) and Tim Lincecum (4-1, 1.73 ERA). Lincecum and Matt Cain (Brett Myers foe Saturday night) are very good hurlers and will help keep the Giants competitive while they rebuild.
Offensively the Giants have moved far, far away from Barryball. They've hit just 16 home runs, but they've stole 33 bases so far. Interestingly, their top base-stealer has just six, so they really run a balanced speed game. As for Rowand: he's hitting .326 but his OBP is only .366. He's also hit just 2 home runs and 14 RBI. His production is going to fall off as the season progresses and he gets less and less lucky in putting the ball into play. The Phillies may miss his intensity, but they won't miss his bat. At all.
Minors Update. The Lehigh Valley IronPigs, the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, is off to a 3-24 start - yes you read that right: three wins and twenty-four losses - in International League play. As a team the IronPigs are dead-last in the IL in OPS (at .573 they are over one hundred points worse than the next-worst team, the Columbus Clippers) and in ERA. Travis Blackley is 0-3 with a 6.64 ERA and Jason Durbin is 0-5 with a 9.61 ERA. The IronPigs big power slugger, Brennan King, is hitting .204 with just one home run and five RBIs.
The Phillies two hot prospects at Lehigh Valley, Jason Jamarillo and J.A. Happ, are on different tracks. J.A. Happ is 0-3, but has actually pitched well: he has an ERA of 3.51 and has struck out 37 hitters in 33 and one-thirds of an inning. Happ has largely been done in by the fact that the IronPigs are awful. Happ might still earn a call-up with the Phillies if Kendrick struggles.
The highly touted Jason Jamarillo has some issues: .193 Batting Average, 2 Home Runs, 3 RBI. I'd say that Chris Coste's job as the backup catcher is very safe.
Over in Berks County, the Reading Phillies are 13-12 and sit three games out of first place in the Eastern League's Southern Division. Outfielder Gregory Golson is off to a terrific start: .320 batting average, 6 doubles, 2 triples, 2 home runs and 15 RBI and eight steals in eleven tries in twenty-five games. Jeremy Slayden, the powerful outfielder who I think is vastly under-rated by scouts and pundits, is hitting .310 with three home runs, twenty RBI and seven doubles.
In Clearwater the Threshers are 9-17 and sit in the Florida State League's Western division's cellar. Prospects Adrian Cardenas and Joe Savery are doing well: Savery has a 2.92 ERA and Cardenas is hitting .347. Finally, over at the Jersey Shore, the Lakewood Blue Claws are 13-13.
Monday, more!
Labels: Braves, Bruntlett, Burrell, Hamels, Mets, Minors, Myers, Pitching, Rollins, Utley, Victorino
Monday, April 28, 2008
Pirates 5, Phillies 1 - Two Out of Three Ain't Bad ...
1. It rains.
2. The Phillies lose.
Case-in-point: the last Phillies - Pirates game I attended was Sunday, August 19, 2007, at PNC Park. After leading the game 4-0 going into the bottom of the seventh inning, the Pirates reeled off seven runs in the bottom of seventh on their way to a 8-4 win. The game took several hours to complete as we sat through several rain delays. A loss and rain.
So last week, for my birthday, my wife handed me two tickets to the Phillies and Pirates. Brett Myers vs. Paul Maholm. The tickets were great: Section 29, right along the third base line.
Rain? Defeat? Would we be greeted by either yesterday?
12:30 PM – My wife and I step onto the light rail train that connects Pittsburgh’s South Hills suburbs with Downtown. Our train is jammed with Pittsburgh Penguins fans on their way to watch the Penguins down the New York Rangers in Game Two of their conference semifinal series 2-0. After an uncomfortable ride we exit at Wood Street Station and head towards PNC Park. It is a glorious day in Pittsburgh: temperatures in the high-70s, bright sunshine. Not believing my luck, I slathered sunscreen on my face before we left. So no rain this time.
1:05 PM – My wife & I arrive
at PNC Park. Sadly I’ve never been to Citizens Bank Ballpark, but I’ve been to a dozen or so games at PNC since it opened in April of 2001. The ballpark is pretty nice – instead of the concrete bowl that typified stadium construction in the 1970’s (see, Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia, Three Rivers Stadium in Pittsburgh, and Riverfront Stadium in Cincinnati), PNC is one of the numerous stadiums that correctly chose to utilize an open design to give fans a view of the downtown city area as well as of the Allegheny River. On a hot summer day, when you get tired of watching the Pirates lose, you can turn your attention to watching the boats glide by on the river. My wife & I cross the Roberto Clemente Bridge and enter PNC by the centerfield entrance. Stopping outside the bullpen area, I snap a few pictures of Carlos Ruiz catching Brett Myers before the game. I take the 
opportunity to don my Pat Burrell jersey. Wearing the opposition’s jersey in a passionate sports town is inadvisable typically – woe be the fool who wears an Eagles jersey to the Steelers game at Heinz Field – but with Pittsburgh’s apathy towards the Pirates in its sixteenth year, I figure I can get away with it. In any case there are legions of people standing around wearing Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels jerseys. We cross underneath the bleachers in leftfield and take our seats in Section 29, along the third base line.
1st Inning – After a 1-2-3 Phillies first, the Pirates Nate McLouth smacks a leadoff home run to rightfield over the head of So Taguchi. Half of my sections stands and applauds while the other half, wearing Phillies jerseys and t-shirts, sits on its hands. Pirates 1, Phillies 0.
2nd Inning – Pat Burrell draws a walk. Forget the 400 foot home runs, this is the play that excites me. Burrell is my favorite player because Phillies fans just don't appreciate what he does. Watching the patient, savvy Burrell work the count off the Pirates Paul Maholm is great stuff. It’s a pity that Burrell never became the next Mike Schmidt and struggled to put up decent numbers in ’03 and ’04. Since he regained his form in ’04, Burrell has been
a terrific player. How many other players in baseball hit 30 Home Runs, 95-100 RBI, and have OBPs near .400? Naturally Pedro Feliz grounds into the inning-ending double play. On the other half of the inning Myers gets three strikeouts. Not bad. Still 1-0 Pirates.
3rd Inning – Ruiz walks with one out and the Phillies try to have Myers bunt Ruiz to second, a strategy that fails miserably when Myers bunts into the inning-ending double play. Ouch. Worryingly, I notice that the Phillies have hit into two double plays in three innings and haven’t gotten a hit. It’s not that Pirates starter Maholm is throwing a great game – in reality he’s tossed as many balls as strikes – but the Phillies hitters are grounding and popping out. It’s just not their day. Meanwhile Myers gets McLouth and Jason Bay to strike-out in the bottom half of the inning, his fifth K of the day. 1-0 Pirates.
1:05 PM – My wife & I arrive
at PNC Park. Sadly I’ve never been to Citizens Bank Ballpark, but I’ve been to a dozen or so games at PNC since it opened in April of 2001. The ballpark is pretty nice – instead of the concrete bowl that typified stadium construction in the 1970’s (see, Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia, Three Rivers Stadium in Pittsburgh, and Riverfront Stadium in Cincinnati), PNC is one of the numerous stadiums that correctly chose to utilize an open design to give fans a view of the downtown city area as well as of the Allegheny River. On a hot summer day, when you get tired of watching the Pirates lose, you can turn your attention to watching the boats glide by on the river. My wife & I cross the Roberto Clemente Bridge and enter PNC by the centerfield entrance. Stopping outside the bullpen area, I snap a few pictures of Carlos Ruiz catching Brett Myers before the game. I take the 
opportunity to don my Pat Burrell jersey. Wearing the opposition’s jersey in a passionate sports town is inadvisable typically – woe be the fool who wears an Eagles jersey to the Steelers game at Heinz Field – but with Pittsburgh’s apathy towards the Pirates in its sixteenth year, I figure I can get away with it. In any case there are legions of people standing around wearing Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels jerseys. We cross underneath the bleachers in leftfield and take our seats in Section 29, along the third base line.1st Inning – After a 1-2-3 Phillies first, the Pirates Nate McLouth smacks a leadoff home run to rightfield over the head of So Taguchi. Half of my sections stands and applauds while the other half, wearing Phillies jerseys and t-shirts, sits on its hands. Pirates 1, Phillies 0.
2nd Inning – Pat Burrell draws a walk. Forget the 400 foot home runs, this is the play that excites me. Burrell is my favorite player because Phillies fans just don't appreciate what he does. Watching the patient, savvy Burrell work the count off the Pirates Paul Maholm is great stuff. It’s a pity that Burrell never became the next Mike Schmidt and struggled to put up decent numbers in ’03 and ’04. Since he regained his form in ’04, Burrell has been
a terrific player. How many other players in baseball hit 30 Home Runs, 95-100 RBI, and have OBPs near .400? Naturally Pedro Feliz grounds into the inning-ending double play. On the other half of the inning Myers gets three strikeouts. Not bad. Still 1-0 Pirates.3rd Inning – Ruiz walks with one out and the Phillies try to have Myers bunt Ruiz to second, a strategy that fails miserably when Myers bunts into the inning-ending double play. Ouch. Worryingly, I notice that the Phillies have hit into two double plays in three innings and haven’t gotten a hit. It’s not that Pirates starter Maholm is throwing a great game – in reality he’s tossed as many balls as strikes – but the Phillies hitters are grounding and popping out. It’s just not their day. Meanwhile Myers gets McLouth and Jason Bay to strike-out in the bottom half of the inning, his fifth K of the day. 1-0 Pirates.
4th Inning – Taguchi, Werth and Utley all make outs, bringing the Pirates to the plate. With two outs the struggling Adam LaRoche steps to the plate. The stadium PA blasts the fans with country music, leading me to deduce that LaRoche is a fan. After listening to the musical cues of hip-hop as each Pirate strode to the plate, LaRoche’s country is a pleasant brake. LaRoche then lines a single to the outfield out of the reach of Utley and Shortstop Eric Bruntlett. LaRoche advances to second on a wild pitch. Third baseman Jose Bautista laces a single to the outfield. Despite a nice throw from Jayson Werth, LaRoche is safe at home. Pirates 2, Phillies 0. Bautista steals second base, setting the Pirates up again to score. Pirates Shortstop Luis Rivas singles to centerfield. Again Jayson Werth charges the ball and delivers a perfect throw to the plate, just in time to gun down Bautista at home. Pirates 2-0.
5th Inning – After a pop-out
by Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell doubles to give the Phillies life (see, left). Alas, Feliz, who hits a hard ball to third, cannot advance Burrell. Two outs. Then Bruntlett surprises me with a clutch hit to bring Burrell home. Pirates 2, Phillies 1. Those were the only two hits the Phillies got all day. Bruntlett is caught stealing, but the Phillies are on the board. In the Pirates half of the inning, the wheels come off Myers train. After walking Maholm, Myers serves up McLouth is second home run of the day with a weak shot to the rightfield bleachers. Pirates 4, Phillies 0. With Myers slated to hit in the top of the sixth inning, Charlie Manuel leaves Myers in to try and pitch himself out of this mess, which he does, but not after giving up a single to Bay. Still: Pirates 4, Phillies 1.
6th Inning – Hit the showers, Brett Myers. After Ruiz grounds out, Manuel sends Brad Harman to the plate to bat for him. Harman walks, but Taguchi and
Werth both make outs. Myers line for the day: 5 Innings Pitched, 5 Strikeouts, 8 Hits, 1 Walk, 2 Home Runs and – most importantly – four runs allowed. In the bottom of the sixth, Rudy Seanez enters the game and promptly allows two singles by LaRoche and Bautista to put runners at first and third. The Phillies manage to turn a double play – their only of the day – on Rivas, but LaRoche scores again. Pirates 5, Phillies 1.
7th Inning – Ryan Howard walks and Pat Burrell hits a deep drive to centerfield, causing the crowd to gasp and stand up from their seats, but it is an out. Feliz is retired and the Phillies spoil another opportunity to score. The bullpen isn’t making me happy. Ryan Madson is in for Seanez and surrenders a single and a walk. After Jason Bay steals third base, there is a runner ninety feet from home plate for LaRoche, the Pirates struggling slugger. Alas, for Pirates fans, LaRoche strikes out. Still 5-1, Pirates.
8th Inning – Ruiz and Bruntlett fly
out. Manuel pulls Madson for a pinch-hitter, sending Chris Coste to the plate. Coste launches a fly ball down the leftfield line that seems to be just inches to the left of the foul pole. Excitement finally builds in the air around the Phillies fans. Alas, Coste strikes out. Mighty Chris has struck out. Incidentially, it was just the second strikeout for Maholm all day. Groans from Phillies fans now coming to the realization that they are poised to have to endure a 300-mile trip on the turnpike with sunburn and a Phillies loss on their minds. Clay Condrey is in for Madson in the eighth and eventually retires the side after surrendering a lead off double to Bautista. Still, 5-1 Pirates.
9th Inning – Last chance. Taguchi lines out to third where Bautista makes a nice leaping grab. Just two outs left. Jayson Werth flies out to the warning track below the rightfield bleachers, prompting a gasp from my wife. Just one out left. Finally, Chase Utley, to a chorus of “M-V-P” chants from the Phillies section, launches a fly ball to the leftfield area. That’s it. Final Score: Pirates 5, Phillies 1. Paul Maholm gets the two-hit, one-run complete game despite allowing more walks (4) than strikeouts (2).
My wife and I
gather our stuff and proceed to head towards the exit. On our way out one of the ushers pleasantly asks my wife & I if we want our photograph taken. We pause for a minute while she snaps our picture, then walk around a little to let the crowd thin out a little. (The pic of my wife & I failed to download, but on the left is a pic I snapped moments after the game went final.) I snap a picture of the Pirates fans heading over the Clemente Bridge to catch public transit in the downtown area of Pittsburgh (most Phillies fans are heading in the opposite direction to the parking lot to grab their cars. My wife and I head back to Wood Street to catch the train. With the Penguins and Rangers deep into the third period of a tight game, the train is mostly empty as we ride south to our house. As we sit down I listen to a train rider ask another rider what the score was. At being told it was a 5-1 Pirates victory there is surprise. Probably the only person not surprised is me. The Pirates always win whenever I go see them play the Phillies. No rain, but a big, fat "L" in the ledger.
Back in my house I slather Aloe Vera on my sunburned face and download the pictures from my digital camera. What a nice day. Too bad the Phillies only come over once a year. There’s always next year. Next time, I'll take a little rain.
5th Inning – After a pop-out
by Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell doubles to give the Phillies life (see, left). Alas, Feliz, who hits a hard ball to third, cannot advance Burrell. Two outs. Then Bruntlett surprises me with a clutch hit to bring Burrell home. Pirates 2, Phillies 1. Those were the only two hits the Phillies got all day. Bruntlett is caught stealing, but the Phillies are on the board. In the Pirates half of the inning, the wheels come off Myers train. After walking Maholm, Myers serves up McLouth is second home run of the day with a weak shot to the rightfield bleachers. Pirates 4, Phillies 0. With Myers slated to hit in the top of the sixth inning, Charlie Manuel leaves Myers in to try and pitch himself out of this mess, which he does, but not after giving up a single to Bay. Still: Pirates 4, Phillies 1.6th Inning – Hit the showers, Brett Myers. After Ruiz grounds out, Manuel sends Brad Harman to the plate to bat for him. Harman walks, but Taguchi and
Werth both make outs. Myers line for the day: 5 Innings Pitched, 5 Strikeouts, 8 Hits, 1 Walk, 2 Home Runs and – most importantly – four runs allowed. In the bottom of the sixth, Rudy Seanez enters the game and promptly allows two singles by LaRoche and Bautista to put runners at first and third. The Phillies manage to turn a double play – their only of the day – on Rivas, but LaRoche scores again. Pirates 5, Phillies 1.7th Inning – Ryan Howard walks and Pat Burrell hits a deep drive to centerfield, causing the crowd to gasp and stand up from their seats, but it is an out. Feliz is retired and the Phillies spoil another opportunity to score. The bullpen isn’t making me happy. Ryan Madson is in for Seanez and surrenders a single and a walk. After Jason Bay steals third base, there is a runner ninety feet from home plate for LaRoche, the Pirates struggling slugger. Alas, for Pirates fans, LaRoche strikes out. Still 5-1, Pirates.
8th Inning – Ruiz and Bruntlett fly
out. Manuel pulls Madson for a pinch-hitter, sending Chris Coste to the plate. Coste launches a fly ball down the leftfield line that seems to be just inches to the left of the foul pole. Excitement finally builds in the air around the Phillies fans. Alas, Coste strikes out. Mighty Chris has struck out. Incidentially, it was just the second strikeout for Maholm all day. Groans from Phillies fans now coming to the realization that they are poised to have to endure a 300-mile trip on the turnpike with sunburn and a Phillies loss on their minds. Clay Condrey is in for Madson in the eighth and eventually retires the side after surrendering a lead off double to Bautista. Still, 5-1 Pirates.9th Inning – Last chance. Taguchi lines out to third where Bautista makes a nice leaping grab. Just two outs left. Jayson Werth flies out to the warning track below the rightfield bleachers, prompting a gasp from my wife. Just one out left. Finally, Chase Utley, to a chorus of “M-V-P” chants from the Phillies section, launches a fly ball to the leftfield area. That’s it. Final Score: Pirates 5, Phillies 1. Paul Maholm gets the two-hit, one-run complete game despite allowing more walks (4) than strikeouts (2).
My wife and I
gather our stuff and proceed to head towards the exit. On our way out one of the ushers pleasantly asks my wife & I if we want our photograph taken. We pause for a minute while she snaps our picture, then walk around a little to let the crowd thin out a little. (The pic of my wife & I failed to download, but on the left is a pic I snapped moments after the game went final.) I snap a picture of the Pirates fans heading over the Clemente Bridge to catch public transit in the downtown area of Pittsburgh (most Phillies fans are heading in the opposite direction to the parking lot to grab their cars. My wife and I head back to Wood Street to catch the train. With the Penguins and Rangers deep into the third period of a tight game, the train is mostly empty as we ride south to our house. As we sit down I listen to a train rider ask another rider what the score was. At being told it was a 5-1 Pirates victory there is surprise. Probably the only person not surprised is me. The Pirates always win whenever I go see them play the Phillies. No rain, but a big, fat "L" in the ledger.Back in my house I slather Aloe Vera on my sunburned face and download the pictures from my digital camera. What a nice day. Too bad the Phillies only come over once a year. There’s always next year. Next time, I'll take a little rain.
Labels: Bruntlett, Bunting, Burrell, Coste, Howard, Myers, Pitching, Ruiz, Taguchi, Utley, Werth
