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Michael/Male/26-30. Lives in United States/Pennsylvania/Wexford/Christopher Wren, speaks English. Spends 20% of daytime online. Uses a Fast (128k-512k) connection. And likes baseball /politics.
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Thursday, July 01, 2004

3 v. 3 ... 

A little while ago I had a conversation with someone about how the Cardinals
"Big Three" of Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds stacked up against the Phils Burrell, Thome and Abreu trio. I suspected that Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds were probably a little better statistically than Burrell, Thome and Abreu, a reasonable assumption give how much attention the Cards offensive unit gets. How do they actually stack up?:

OBP / SLG / GPA / ISO
Thome: .420 / .708 / .366 / .400
Abreu: .439 / .571 / .340 / .268
Burrell: .391 / .498 / .300 / .216



OBP / SLG / GPA / ISO
Pujols: .401 / .596 / .329 / .296
Rolen: .416 / .621 / .342 / .279
Edmonds: .377 / .542 / .305 / .269

Generally speaking, the Phils come out ahead although Burrell is the weakest of the six and the Cards are all closely matched statistically: there is a big difference between Burrell and Thome and/or Abreu.

Secondary Average:
Thome: .580 / Abreu: .563 / Burrell: .404
Pujols: .466 / Edmonds: .443 / Rolen: .404

Again, the Cards are all about the same, while Thome (and Abreu, due to his ability to steal bases, a skill Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds all lack) is head-and-shoulders above the others.

RC27:
Thome: 10.29
Abreu: 9.88
Burrell: 6.99

Rolen: 9.31
Pujols: 8.00
Edmonds: 7.38

Again, more of the same, although I hadn't expected Rolen to come out ahead statistically over Pujols. What really caught my eye about Pujols was this:

Abreu's skill at controlling the plate is impressive: despite hitting for power he still walks more often than he strikes out. Thome and Burrell sacrifice a lot of contact for power:

BB / K ratio:
Abreu: 1.15
Thome: 0.72
Burrell: 0.63

Unsurprisingly, Rolen and Edmonds are strikeout artists:
BB / K ratio:
Rolen: 0.69
Edmonds: 0.58

But look at Pujols:
BB / K ratio:
Puhols: 2.09

I did a double-take when I saw that and immediately went to look it up: 48 BB's, 22 K's. Wow. I'm extraordinarily impressed by Pujols ability to consistently make contact with the ball. It isn't just good: it is phenomenal.

Statistically, I'd give the edge to the Phils, and the difference becomes starker when you add in a fourth: David Bell is having a good year for the Phils:

OBP / SLG / GPA / ISO / SecAvg
Bell: .364 / .478 / .283 / .201 / .337

The Cards fourth hitter is Reggie Sanders, the ex-Pirate ... ex-everyone. Sanders looks a lot less impressive:

OBP / SLG / GPA / ISO / SecAvg
Sanders: .284 / .471 / .246 / .223 / .315

His OBP is pretty lousy, so when he isn't clobbering doubles and home runs, he's a pretty much automatic out. Not coincidentally, Sanders contributes far less to the Cards offense than Bell does for the Phils:

RC27:
Bell: 5.95
Sanders: 4.87

(Of note- Bell: 0.80 BB / K ; Sanders: 0.18 BB / K)

In the final analysis, it must be said that the Phils middle of the order looks clearly superior to that of the Cards. Overall, the two teams are remarkably close (lead-off guys Renteria and Rollins have roughly similar BA's & OBP's), but the Phils look to be the superior team offensively. Now if they could improve their pitching...

(Team-work!)
(Stats current as of July 1, 2004.)

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