A CITIZEN'S BLOG

Well, Part Deux of the 2004 season is about to start with the Phils up in Queens to play the Mets for four games and then it is on to Atlanta for a two game series. At the risk of sounding like a broken record: this series is critical for the Phils. Just two games separate the fourth place Mets from the first place Phils. This is a very fluid race, and the Phil's 8-6 record in their homestand is starting to look like a lost opportunity to gain some breathing room on the rest of the division. They need to come up big in New York to keep in front. With most of their games left against NL East foes, the Phils need to dramatically improve on their 17-22 record against the division. (And probably half of those 17 wins are against the Expos.)

Looming on the horizon are the Marlins: 3rd place, not playing particularly well, this team simply has an uncanny nack for beating the Phils. They have our number. Before the end of the month the Phils have two series against them and you cannot help but think that those six games are vital to the Phils post-season chances: both to exercise some demons (and gain confidence) and to put away a rival.

The Citizen's Report and Phillies Fan have both published their midseason reviews. Much to my surprise, Bill seems optimistic about the Phils chances. He makes a compelling case, but I think the odds are stacked against the Phils. Here is my prediction:

1. New York Mets 90-72
2. Philadelphia Phillies 87-75
3. Florida Marlins 84-78
4. Atlanta Braves 82-80
5. Montreal Expos 62-100

Here is basically how I think things will end up, based on what I've seen:

NL East: Mets
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Padres
NL Wildcard: Cubs

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Twins
AL West: A's
AL Wilcard: Red Sox

World Series: A's vs. the Cards.