Monday, October 04, 2004
Nostradamus I am not …
The A’s and Giants were going to make the playoffs said I … the gods of baseball begged to differ. (I hope nobody out there relies on my predictions to place bets. Bet against me and you’ll do fine…) With the Phils season at rest, and the playoff matchups set …
Twins at Yankees: I’m not impressed by the Yankees and their poor pitching staff. As someone (I thought it was Aaron Gleeman, but I think I am wrong) noted in Hardball Times, their actual win v. Pythagorean win variance is enormous (10, I think), which tells me that this team has been getting by on luck, mystique and little else. I say the Twins in four.
Red Sox at Angels: This will be an interesting series because the teams are very closely matched. While the Angels are playing with momentum, I like the balance the Red Sox have: pitching, defense, hitting … they seem to be the most complete team in the AL. I like the Red Sox in five.
Dodgers at Cardinals: This is the most intriguing matchup in the post-season. The Dodgers are definite underdogs, given how fearsome the Cardinals foursome of Walker, Pujols, Edmonds and Rolen looked in the regular season, but I don’t think that the Cards rotation looks as good as it does on paper. There is no over-powering starter that they can rely on. Plus, we’ve seen teams with impressive win totals falter in the playoffs: Seattle’s 116 flop in ’01 comes to mind … This will be pretty even. I say Cards in five, but it will be close.
Astros at Braves: For years I’ve searched for reasons to loathe the Atlanta Braves. They textbook baseball: great pitching, good defense, solid hitting. Aside from John Rocker and Deion Sanders, they have had no irritating personalities on their roster. Their fans? Always been perfectly polite, calm and intelligent in person and on the ‘net. So I hate the Braves for the wrong reason: they win too much. That said, these teams are fairly evenly matched. I like the Braves in five.
Personal note: I wanted to mention that I passed the July, 2004 bar examination, and I’ll be sworn in shortly as an attorney here in Pennsylvania. Let's hope I make a better lawyer than baseball pundit …
Twins at Yankees: I’m not impressed by the Yankees and their poor pitching staff. As someone (I thought it was Aaron Gleeman, but I think I am wrong) noted in Hardball Times, their actual win v. Pythagorean win variance is enormous (10, I think), which tells me that this team has been getting by on luck, mystique and little else. I say the Twins in four.
Red Sox at Angels: This will be an interesting series because the teams are very closely matched. While the Angels are playing with momentum, I like the balance the Red Sox have: pitching, defense, hitting … they seem to be the most complete team in the AL. I like the Red Sox in five.
Dodgers at Cardinals: This is the most intriguing matchup in the post-season. The Dodgers are definite underdogs, given how fearsome the Cardinals foursome of Walker, Pujols, Edmonds and Rolen looked in the regular season, but I don’t think that the Cards rotation looks as good as it does on paper. There is no over-powering starter that they can rely on. Plus, we’ve seen teams with impressive win totals falter in the playoffs: Seattle’s 116 flop in ’01 comes to mind … This will be pretty even. I say Cards in five, but it will be close.
Astros at Braves: For years I’ve searched for reasons to loathe the Atlanta Braves. They textbook baseball: great pitching, good defense, solid hitting. Aside from John Rocker and Deion Sanders, they have had no irritating personalities on their roster. Their fans? Always been perfectly polite, calm and intelligent in person and on the ‘net. So I hate the Braves for the wrong reason: they win too much. That said, these teams are fairly evenly matched. I like the Braves in five.
Personal note: I wanted to mention that I passed the July, 2004 bar examination, and I’ll be sworn in shortly as an attorney here in Pennsylvania. Let's hope I make a better lawyer than baseball pundit …
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