A CITIZEN'S BLOG

Cardinals – Red Sox! What a terrific match-up in the series: two high-powered, high-scoring teams who had to come from behind to with their respective LCS. Poetic that the Red Sox get a chance to break the curse once and for all against one of the teams that helped them write their eighty-six year tale of woe. The Cards beat the Sox in both the ’46 and ’67 World Series in seven games.

Here are a few general numbers:

GPA / OBP / SLG / ISO / RC27
Boston: .280 / .360 / .472 / .190 / 6.05
St. Louis: .270 / .344 / .460 / .182 / 5.50

Roughly even, though it must be noted that the Cards will naturally lag because they can’t employ a DH like the Red Sox did with David Ortiz all year.

Runs / HR / 2B / Total Bases
Boston: 949 / 222 / 373 / 2,702
St. Louis: 855 / 214 / 319 / 2,553

If the Cards utilized a DH, I’m sure the numbers would be dead-even, or even a little to the Cards advantage. Compared against their respective leagues:

Boston:
OBP: 1st
SLG: 1st
HR: 4th
2B: 1st
TB: 1st
RC27: 1st
ISO: 2nd

St. Louis:
OBP: 4th
SLG: 1st
HR: 3rd
2B: 2nd
TB: 2nd
RC27: 1st
ISO: 2nd

Offensively, I think a slight edge has to be given to the Red Sox here. Both teams slug the ball, but the Red Sox are a little better at drawing walks: they'll wear on the Cards starters.

The big 4 have been terrific for the Cards, but I think that the Red Sox lineup is deeper and that gives them the edge. In the ALCS the Yankees wilted when their big 4 slipped because the rest of their lineup couldn’t come through. The Red Sox survived an awful series from Johnny Damon because everyone was a threat: in game six of the ALCS, Boston’s four runs were scored by their 6-9 hitters: Cabrera, a light-hitting defensive specialist, has an OBP of .370 in the playoffs with eight RBIs in ten games. The Cards Big 4, in contrast, have 16 of their 18 home runs, and 37 of their 54 RBIs. The Cards look a little like the Yankees. If the Big 4 don't click on all cylinders, look out.

The only big difference between the two teams is in their approach to the running game: the Cardinals were aggressive base-stealers in the regular season, attempting 158 steals, 111 successfully. The Red Sox were more cautious: 98 attempts, 68 successful. Both teams had similar success rates: 70% for the Cards, 69% for the Red Sox. This could be a factor: I’ve seen the Cards run themselves out of big innings because of their aggressiveness on the base-paths.

Pitching:

WHIP / ERA / BAA
Boston: 1.29 / 4.18 / .255
St. Louis: 1.25 / 3.75 / .251

Interestingly, the Red Sox and Cards rank #1 & #2 in the MLB in WHIP. Otherwise, both teams are, again, pretty dead even. Not much separates them. Again, because of the differences between the NL and AL the Cards slight edge looks insignificant: in addition to being #1 in the MLB in WHIP, the Cards were #2 in the NL in ERA and BAA. The Red Sox were #1 in the AL in WHIP, and #3 in ERA and #1 in BAA. The Cards strength lies in their bullpen, while the Red Sox starting pitching gives them the edge.

I give a slight edge to the Red Sox on this one. I think their battle-hardened starters can go deep into the game, while I think that a lot of the Cards starters will be nervous. I could see the Red Sox jumping to a big lead in a few games.

Fielding:

ZR / Fielding Percentage
Boston: .829 / .981
St. Louis: .859 / .985

This is actually a big variance. On ZR the Cards were second in the MLB, the Red Sox were 30th.

Out of 30 teams.

The difference is less stark on fielding percentage, but still big: the Cards are a top fielding team, the Red Sox one of the bottom-feeders. Accurate? The big July trade bringing in Cabrera and Mientkiewicz significantly upgraded the Red Sox defense, so it is impossible to know of the gap between the two teams has been bridged. Advantage St. Louis, but the Red Sox seemed to be playing very good defense of late.

I suppose a big question mark is what the Red Sox intend to do with Ortiz during the games in St. Louis. They can’t do without his 41 home runs, 47 doubles, 139 RBI’s and .380 OBP. First base seems to be the option: Ortiz logged 260 innings this year at first base and wasn’t awful: his .797 ZR was better than Millar’s .789 …

I say Red Sox in six. Curt Schilling will close out the series in Boston on October 30 with a big win. He’ll be the series MVP too.