Tuesday, November 30, 2004
D-fens
I was surprised that the most feedback I got from my multi-part season in review was my first post on defense. It isn’t a topic we think about much and the argument I made, that the Phillies defense had declined in 2004 and that decline hurt the team, caught some people by surprise. Who had ever thought of the Phillies defense as being either good or important to the team’s chances? Was that why the Phillies pitching had taken a tumble in 2004? I certainly think it was a significant factor, perhaps one greater than the Phillies move to Citizen’s Bank Ballpark.
I tried to track the decline of the Phillies defense between the 2003 & 2004 seasons and here is what I got…
Team ZR by position: (2004 / 2003 / Difference)
1B: .821 / .853 (-.032)
2B: .832 / .850 (-.018)
3B: .783 / .787 (-.004)
SS: .860 / .843 (+.017)
RF: .877 / .897 (-.020)
LF: .869 / .871 (-.002)
CF: .857 / .883 (-.026)
Team: .851 (6th) / .859 (2nd) (-.008)
Aside from the improved play of Jimmy Rollins at short, there was an across-the-board decline on every front for the Phillies defense. The decline at first base, where Thome is more of a liability than an asset, was especially striking to me. When Thome took over the job in 2003, he was a downgrade compared with Travis Lee, but he more than made up for the loss of Lee’s glove by his bat (and then some). In 2004 Thome seemed to really decline at the plate (.294 Post-All Star GPA, .346 Pre-All Star), but he also seemed to decline on the field:
First Basemen:
2001: Travis Lee, .896
2002: Travis Lee, .864
2003: Jim Thome, .852
2004: Jim Thome, .817 (-.035 from ‘03)
It is a pity that ESPN doesn’t have month-by-month ZR stats so I could confirm my suspicion that Thome played worse defensively as the season wore on … Given that Thome seemed to decline so badly at the end of the ’04 campaign, I think there is troubling evidence that Thome might be arriving at the twilight of his career a little faster than anticipated.
Even though the Phillies had been second in the NL in ZR in ’03, they actually played better defense in 2002 & 2001. Check out the Phillies stats from those years:
Team ZR by position: (2002 / 2001)
1B: .862 / .888
2B: .826 / .862
3B: .814 / .821
SS: .857 / .853
RF: .925 / .876
LF: .887 / .870
CF: .851 / .884*
Team: .863 (4th) / .869 (1st)
Despite the declining to fourth in the NL, the ’02 Phillies played better defense than the ’03 team …
Team ZR:
2001: .869
2002: .863 (-.006)
2003: .859 (-.004)
2004: .851 (-.008)
* If I could frighten everyone for a moment … the Phillies sterling .884 ZR in center in ’01 is courtesy of our friend Doug Glanville. Glanville played 1,310 & 2/3 innings for the Phillies in centerfield (about 91% of the Phillies centerfield innings). He may have been a black hole at the plate (a laughable .285 OBP in 2001), but he did have a good glove, way back when…
Curious about what the strengths of the Phillies were during those years (2001-2004), I broke ZR down by infield or outfield (ESPN.com’s ZR numbers allow you to do that for 2002-2004, but strangely not for 2001). The Phillies outfield has always been so-so:
Outfield:
2002: .884 (6th)
2003: .884 (5th)
2004: .867 (8th)
’04 vs. ’02: -.017
Nothing too impressive there. But check out the Phillies infield…
Infield:
2002: .838 (1st)
2003: .832 (2nd)
2004: .824 (5th)
’04 vs. ’02: -.014
Remember, 2002 was a year in which they finished fourth in ZR, but they had the best infield defense in the NL that year.
Conclusions: I think the infield defense is the key for the Phillies because they need to bring in as many groundball pitchers as possible. So getting those 4-3, 6-3 and 5-3 groundouts is vital and I think that was a big reason why the Phillies pitching had trouble in ’04.
I’ll reiterate my argument that the Phillies need to deal Bell and install Utley at third. Last year Bell and Thome played most games for the Phillies and I think that the decline in the quality of the Phillies infield is obvious. I wouldn’t dream of advocating the Phillies deal Thome, but Bell had a career year in ’04 and I see him as a major defensive liability at third. I think Utley would be a defensive upgrade and just as good, if not a better, bat than Bell.
I’m doing some more work on the subject, so stay tuned … I also have some other logs on the fire ...
I tried to track the decline of the Phillies defense between the 2003 & 2004 seasons and here is what I got…
Team ZR by position: (2004 / 2003 / Difference)
1B: .821 / .853 (-.032)
2B: .832 / .850 (-.018)
3B: .783 / .787 (-.004)
SS: .860 / .843 (+.017)
RF: .877 / .897 (-.020)
LF: .869 / .871 (-.002)
CF: .857 / .883 (-.026)
Team: .851 (6th) / .859 (2nd) (-.008)
Aside from the improved play of Jimmy Rollins at short, there was an across-the-board decline on every front for the Phillies defense. The decline at first base, where Thome is more of a liability than an asset, was especially striking to me. When Thome took over the job in 2003, he was a downgrade compared with Travis Lee, but he more than made up for the loss of Lee’s glove by his bat (and then some). In 2004 Thome seemed to really decline at the plate (.294 Post-All Star GPA, .346 Pre-All Star), but he also seemed to decline on the field:
First Basemen:
2001: Travis Lee, .896
2002: Travis Lee, .864
2003: Jim Thome, .852
2004: Jim Thome, .817 (-.035 from ‘03)
It is a pity that ESPN doesn’t have month-by-month ZR stats so I could confirm my suspicion that Thome played worse defensively as the season wore on … Given that Thome seemed to decline so badly at the end of the ’04 campaign, I think there is troubling evidence that Thome might be arriving at the twilight of his career a little faster than anticipated.
Even though the Phillies had been second in the NL in ZR in ’03, they actually played better defense in 2002 & 2001. Check out the Phillies stats from those years:
Team ZR by position: (2002 / 2001)
1B: .862 / .888
2B: .826 / .862
3B: .814 / .821
SS: .857 / .853
RF: .925 / .876
LF: .887 / .870
CF: .851 / .884*
Team: .863 (4th) / .869 (1st)
Despite the declining to fourth in the NL, the ’02 Phillies played better defense than the ’03 team …
Team ZR:
2001: .869
2002: .863 (-.006)
2003: .859 (-.004)
2004: .851 (-.008)
* If I could frighten everyone for a moment … the Phillies sterling .884 ZR in center in ’01 is courtesy of our friend Doug Glanville. Glanville played 1,310 & 2/3 innings for the Phillies in centerfield (about 91% of the Phillies centerfield innings). He may have been a black hole at the plate (a laughable .285 OBP in 2001), but he did have a good glove, way back when…
Curious about what the strengths of the Phillies were during those years (2001-2004), I broke ZR down by infield or outfield (ESPN.com’s ZR numbers allow you to do that for 2002-2004, but strangely not for 2001). The Phillies outfield has always been so-so:
Outfield:
2002: .884 (6th)
2003: .884 (5th)
2004: .867 (8th)
’04 vs. ’02: -.017
Nothing too impressive there. But check out the Phillies infield…
Infield:
2002: .838 (1st)
2003: .832 (2nd)
2004: .824 (5th)
’04 vs. ’02: -.014
Remember, 2002 was a year in which they finished fourth in ZR, but they had the best infield defense in the NL that year.
Conclusions: I think the infield defense is the key for the Phillies because they need to bring in as many groundball pitchers as possible. So getting those 4-3, 6-3 and 5-3 groundouts is vital and I think that was a big reason why the Phillies pitching had trouble in ’04.
I’ll reiterate my argument that the Phillies need to deal Bell and install Utley at third. Last year Bell and Thome played most games for the Phillies and I think that the decline in the quality of the Phillies infield is obvious. I wouldn’t dream of advocating the Phillies deal Thome, but Bell had a career year in ’04 and I see him as a major defensive liability at third. I think Utley would be a defensive upgrade and just as good, if not a better, bat than Bell.
I’m doing some more work on the subject, so stay tuned … I also have some other logs on the fire ...
Comments:
Post a Comment
