A CITIZEN'S BLOG

Pitcher Eric Milton is an interesting question mark for the Phillies, one visitors to A Citizens Blog have asked me about in emails: "Will the Phillies re-sign him?" The organization has been fairly cryptic on the matter, so it is impossible to tell. His $9 million dollar salary might make that difficult. Milton and Kevin Millwood together accounted for $20 million of the Phillies $93 million-dollar payroll in 2004, a season in which they collectively went 23-12, with an ERA of 4.79 and a WHIP of 1.39. The duo didn't succeed in hurling the Phillies to the World Series as anticipated and now both are free agents. Given Millwood's arm problems the Phillies aren't likely to resign him, so the question becomes: is it worth re-signing Milton? Will he be the Phillies ace in 2005? I say probably not:

Milton had what could best be described as a mediocre season in 2004: 14-6 record, 1.35 WHIP and an ERA of 4.75. He was a pretty fair microcosim of the Phillies pitching in 2004. The team had a 1.36 WHIP and an ERA of 4.45. Milton's 2004 numbers were right in line with his career ones: 1.29 WHIP / 4.76 ERA. So why not re-sign him? He had a winning record, correct?

A closer look at the numbers reveals a significant problem, which was that he was the beneficiary of considerable run support and terrific defense from the Phillies.

First the run support issue: the Phillies scored 6.54 runs per start when Milton pitched, a fantastic number. The Phillies usually provided their starters with 5.17 runs per start. The Braves Russ Ortiz benefitted from just 5.14 runs per start on his way to posting a 15-9 record. Milton's 14 wins would probably be much smaller had the Phillies bats provided him with fewer runs to work with.

The argument was made during the season that many of the Phillies starters had their ERAs and WHIPs negatively impacted by how hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Ballpark is. The idea that Citizen's impacted Milton's numbers is a load of bunk: of the Phillies starters Padilla, Wolf, Millwood and Lidle all had better road ERAs than Milton, who was only slightly better than Myers on the road. Despite having a road ERA of 5.12, Milton went 8-3 in his road starts, a terrific instance of when a win-loss record isn't an accurate measure of a pitcher's abilities.

Despite the conventional wisdom that Citizen's impacted his pitching, Milton actually pitched well at Citizen's in 2004:

Citizen's WHIP / ERA
Milton: 1.29 / 4.40
Millwood: 1.45 / 4.95
Wolf: 1.41 / 4.95
Myers: 1.36 / 5.77
Lidle: 1.05 / 3.06
Padilla: 1.38 / 4.96
Abbott: 1.52 / 4.68

However, Milton's run of luck at Citizens probably won't continue in 2005. No other Phillies starter had a smaller groundball / flyball ratio:

Milton: 0.57
Wolf: 0.81
Abbott: 0.93
Millwood: 1.12
Padilla: 1.16
Myers: 1.39
Lidle: 1.48

Given how often Milton's pitches turn into flyballs, he is a bad bet to continue hurling at Citizens.

Milton was also the beneficiary of exemplary defense:

DER / FIP
Millwood: .673 / 3.83
Milton: .737 / 5.39
Wolf: .713 / 4.58
Lidle: .741 / 3.70
Padilla: .713 / 4.65
Abbott: .735 / 7.89
Myers: .707 / 5.21
NL average: .695 / 4.31

What the stats mean ... DER (Defense Effeciency Ratio): Percentage of balls put into play that the pitcher's fielders converted into outs (minus home runs). FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching): I'll let Hardball Times own definition speak for itself: "Essentially an approximation of what the pitcher's ERA would be with an "average" defense behind him. The formula is (13xHR + 3xBB - 2xK)/IP plus a league-specific factor (around 3.20). It works like DIPS ERA, if you're familiar with that, but it's a lot easier to compute and explain." Click here for the Phillies pitching stats.

Anyway, the numbers speak for themselves: aside from Paul Abbott, Milton was arguably the Phillies worst pitcher in 2004. He benefitted from considerable fielding by the Phillies and would have had an absurdly large ERA with an average team fielding behind him. Phillies fielders effectively converted balls put into play into outs for Milton.

In the final analysis, Milton was fortunate to have a mediocre season in 2004, because his 2005 will only get worse. He isn't the Phillies ace and he shouldn't be given a salary to reflect that. The Phillies would better spend their time pursuing other pitchers if they want to upgrade the starting pitching via the free agent market. If Steinbrenner wants to throw money at him, the Phillies should just let him. Don't bring Eric Milton back, Ed Wade. You'll regret it ...

Links from the last several days ... Aaron Gleeman argues in favor of a new curse: the Twins decision to let David Ortiz go to the Red Sox after the 2002 season. Ortiz had the climatic hit in Games 4 & 5 of the ALCS and he clutch hitting was sorely missed by the Twins in the ALDS. Ben Jacobs goes through the Red Sox roster, player-by-player, citing their contributions (or lack thereof). Brian Gunn analyzes the Cardinals failure in the World Series ... Bill Buckner hopes that Red Sox fans will get off his back now ... Jim Leyland as the Phillies manager? I doubt it. He'll be in New York with the Mets, I think. This is Charlie Manuel's job to lose ... Todd Helton a Yankee? Watch out Boston, Steinbrenner is finally making some smart decisions ... Aaron rates the free agent first basemen, not exactly a position the Phillies need help at. Yesterday he rated the catchers and said some nice things about Todd Pratt. Not much else going on.