Wednesday, November 03, 2004
Ryan Madson: Good or Great?
One of the few bright spots on the Phillies pitching staff in 2004 was Ryan Madson. The rookie played in 52 games for the Phillies and generally pitched well ... well, aside from his only start of the season, when he gave up six runs on three home runs in two-thirds of an inning in Chicago. But generally Madson pitched well and became beloved by most Phillies bloggers for his strong performance. Data suggests that Madson probably won't have a season as strong as this in 2005, but he might be uniquely suited to succeed pitching at Citizens.
Here are Madson's 2004 numbers:
W-L: 9-3
WHIP: 1.13
ERA: 2.34
Madson significantly out-performed the Phillies pitching staff:
Team WHIP: 1.36 (Madson: -0.23)
Team ERA: 4.45 (Madson: -2.11)
The secret of Madson's success in 2004 was his ability to make hitters ground out: Madson had a ground ball/fly ball ratio of nearly two-to-one: 1.92, much better than the Phillies team ratio of 1.09, second worst in the majors after the Dodgers 1.07 ... Madson, despite the disasterous start in Chicago, gave up comparitively few home runs: 0.7 per nine innings, better than the team's 1.3 per nine. Madson's ability to throw ground ball outs is a powerful argument for the Phillies to use him more in 2005 as either a starter, or increasing his work in the bullpen.
Meanwhile, it must be noted that Madson is unlikely to repeat his stellar 2004: according to Hardball Times' stat page, Madson was the recipient of unusually good defense from the Phillies. Consider the varience between his actual ERA and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA:
ERA: 2.34
FIP: 3.60
variance: +1.22
FIP is a stat designed to figure out what a pitcher would have done with an average defense playing behind him. And the Phillies did play terrific defense with Madson: their DER* is .727 with him on the mound, as opposed to the team average of .703 ... clearly, defense helped Madson greatly in 2004, more than any other Phillies pitcher (despite getting terrific defense, Billy Wagner's FIP increases just 0.06, though the Phillies had a .764 DER with him on the mound), which makes you wonder if Madson's formitable performance in 2005 can be repeated. We'll see, but the California-born right-hander has certainly earned a big role on the Phillies pitching staff for '05.
* Defense Effeciency Ratio: percentage of balls put into play the the pitchers fielders convert into outs.
Here are Madson's 2004 numbers:
W-L: 9-3
WHIP: 1.13
ERA: 2.34
Madson significantly out-performed the Phillies pitching staff:
Team WHIP: 1.36 (Madson: -0.23)
Team ERA: 4.45 (Madson: -2.11)
The secret of Madson's success in 2004 was his ability to make hitters ground out: Madson had a ground ball/fly ball ratio of nearly two-to-one: 1.92, much better than the Phillies team ratio of 1.09, second worst in the majors after the Dodgers 1.07 ... Madson, despite the disasterous start in Chicago, gave up comparitively few home runs: 0.7 per nine innings, better than the team's 1.3 per nine. Madson's ability to throw ground ball outs is a powerful argument for the Phillies to use him more in 2005 as either a starter, or increasing his work in the bullpen.
Meanwhile, it must be noted that Madson is unlikely to repeat his stellar 2004: according to Hardball Times' stat page, Madson was the recipient of unusually good defense from the Phillies. Consider the varience between his actual ERA and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA:
ERA: 2.34
FIP: 3.60
variance: +1.22
FIP is a stat designed to figure out what a pitcher would have done with an average defense playing behind him. And the Phillies did play terrific defense with Madson: their DER* is .727 with him on the mound, as opposed to the team average of .703 ... clearly, defense helped Madson greatly in 2004, more than any other Phillies pitcher (despite getting terrific defense, Billy Wagner's FIP increases just 0.06, though the Phillies had a .764 DER with him on the mound), which makes you wonder if Madson's formitable performance in 2005 can be repeated. We'll see, but the California-born right-hander has certainly earned a big role on the Phillies pitching staff for '05.
* Defense Effeciency Ratio: percentage of balls put into play the the pitchers fielders convert into outs.
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