A CITIZEN'S BLOG

When the 2004 baseball previews came out the Phillies were the consensus pick for the NL East championship. The team, bolstered by Thome, Bell and Millwood in 2003 had added Worrell, Wagner and Milton in the off-season and looked like a lock to win the division and finally end the Atlanta Braves decade-long lock on the division. Instead the Phillies faltered, were rarely in first, and imploded spectacularly in late July against the Florida Marlins. The Phillies spent the final two months of the season attempting to restore a little respectability to the season. They finished second with an 86-76 record (remarkably, the third time in four years they posted an 86-76 record). Manager Larry Bowa was fired and the team hired ex-Indians skipper Charlie Manuel to helm the team. As we speak the Phillies are in the thick of the free agent market, attempting to bolster the roster for another run at the Braves in 2005.

Since the imposition of the three-division format in 1995, the Phillies are one of just four NL teams to fail to make the playoffs (our friends in Pittsburgh and Milwaukee can join in our torment, while fans in Montreal probably don’t care anymore). Why? The Phillies don't suffer from small-marketitis like the Expos, Pirates and Brewers. Philly is a terrific place to play and a terrific place to live. The Braves have been losing players for years and should have been a good deal weaker in 2004. This team is too talented to fail to reach the playoffs.

NL East: Record / Payroll
Atlanta Braves: 96-66; $88,507,788
Philadelphia Phillies: 86-76, $93,219,167
Florida Marlins: 83-79, $42,118,042
New York Mets: 71-91; $95,754.304
Montreal Expos: 67-95; $43,197,500

So what went wrong? I can pin-point a few things:

-Bowa. I was never a big fan of Larry Bowa. While most rank-and-file Phillies fans love him for his firey temper and old-school temperment, Phillies bloggers just roll their eyes at the sight of the close-minded skipper running a talented team into the ground with his yelling and obsession with "manufacturing" runs. As I said in Part III, the Phillies were the perfect National League Moneyball team, a collection of OBP machines and sluggers. So why did they waste so many outs? The example I remember most, in a game between the Red Sox & Phillies, Bowa sent Placido Polanco to steal second with Bobby Abreu up and Jim Thome on-deck, costing the Phillies an out at a decisive juncture of the game. Bowa's petulent off-season whining that Citizen's Bank Ballpark hurt the Phillies and cost him his job was the surest indicator to me that Citizen's Bank Ballpark didn't hurt the Phillies in 2004, and that he would have been fired regardless.

Bowa was an old school yeller and screamer motivator. On a team full of veterans, many of whom have been to the playoffs several times, I can't imagine this going over well. To a man they probably rolled their eyes and tuned him out. When the troops feel contempt for their leader, the battle is over.

Recently I re-read parts of Moneyball, and in particular Michael Lewis' complaints about the baseball establishment closing their minds to the A's brand of baseball. I couldn't help but think that Lewis was trying to talk to "old school" guys like Bowa, to try and convince them that their strategies were doomed to failure, but find that his words fell on deaf ears.

-Wade. At the All-Star break I was wondering who the Phillies planned on acquiring for the stretch run to jump-start the team. The Dodgers added Steve Finley. The Cardinals got Larry Walker. The Cubs added Nomar. The Astros got Carlos Beltran. The Marlins made a trade with the Dodgers that was widely panned by bloggers, but praised by baseball writers.

Who did the Phillies add in their race for the pennant? They depleted their minor league system to add a few bullpen guys. Then the Phillies sank like a stone.

Call it a failure of imagination. I give Ed Wade credit for being a good GM. I think that the Phillies have drafted well (look at how many players are home-grown: Burrell, Lieberthal, Rollins) and have made some shrewd moves. The Rolen trade wasn't as bad as everyone thought. But I simply cannot figure out why Ed Wade doesn't make any bold moves. I say give the Marlins credit, because they at least tried a trade with the Dodgers to jump-start their season, even though it backfired. The Phillies were like bad poker player, glumly glaring at the mediocre hand they were dealt, unwilling to deal it for fear someone will steal their cards and actually make use of them ... When the team struggled, management did nothing. I remember when Billy Beane dealt Jeremy Giambi to the Phillies in 2002: we all thought that the A's had made a bone-headed deal, but it sparked the A's to a big second-half. It shook the team up.

Make a big deal at the 2005 deadline Ed.

Milton, Millwood, Myers, Padilla, Wolf, Abbott, Lidle ... more generally, the failure of the Phillies pitching staff to develop into the top-flight rotation they could be. The Phillies pitching saw their ERAs spike during the summer, a time which coincided with the Phillies collapse:

Team ERA:
April: 3.33
May: 3.86
June: 5.84
July: 4.79
August: 5.08
September: 3.74
October: 3.33

Team Record:
June-August: 38-45
Rest of year: 48-31

As I outlined in Part II, the Phillies need to let deadwood like Milton walk and avoid bringing in expensive flyball hurlers. The rotation needs to improve next year and put 2004 out of their minds. Repeat after me fellas: "Citizens Bank Ballpark is my friend ... Citizens Bank Ballpark is my friend ... Citizens Bank Ballpark is my friend ..."

Don't blame Citizen's Bank Ballpark and don't blame the Phillies offense. This is a talented core of players and I think they could ... I think they should win the NL East next year.

The decline and fall of the defense ... I complained in Part I that the Phillies defense has been declining for some time. I think that the decline of the Phillies from top-tier to middle-tier defensively has hurt the quality of the Phillies pitching. The Phillies should think about their defensive alignment a lot more in the future.

Ten Solutions:

• 1. Give Jimmy Rollins the lead-off job and ink him to a long-term contract. He had a .360 OBP leading off in 2004, had a .299 GPA after the All-Star break, and he's probably the best shortstop in the NL.
• 2. Emphasize the walk. An Army officer stationed at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, told author-journalist Robert D. Kaplan that "attrition of the same adds up to big change." Walks lead to runs. They wear out pitcher's arms and they put runners on base. Surely, it is no surprise that the top teams in drawing walks: the Giants, the Phillies, the Red Sox, etc., were also the top teams in scoring runs. If the Phillies can continue to milk pitchers for walks, they'll continue to be one of the NL's top teams offensively.
• 3. Deal Bell and give Burrell some more time.
• 4. For the sake of the Phillies declining defense, re-sign Polanco.
• 5. Get a decent centerfielder. More to the point, sign Steve Finley before Carlos Beltran inks a 10-year deal with the Yankees and the price for Finley goes through the roof.
• 6. Let Milton go. Re-sign Millwood if you can, but don't over-pay. In fact, don't over-pay for any starting pitching next year. The rotation is better than anyone thinks.
• 7. Give Gavin Floyd and Ryan Madson some innings as starters.
• 8. Put Chase Utley at third or keep him on the bench.
• 9. Bring up Ryan Howard. And keep him! He, Utley and Burrell are the Phils future.
• 10. Let Charlie Manuel do his thing. This team should win 90-93 games next year.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone...