<$BlogRSDUrl$>

Michael/Male/26-30. Lives in United States/Pennsylvania/Wexford/Christopher Wren, speaks English. Spends 20% of daytime online. Uses a Fast (128k-512k) connection. And likes baseball /politics.
This is my blogchalk:
United States, Pennsylvania, Wexford, Christopher Wren, English, Michael, Male, 26-30, baseball , politics.

Friday, December 10, 2004

Chasing the Braves 

I was looking over Yahoo! Sports yesterday when I saw an article about the continued decline of the Atlanta Braves, who look set to depart company with J.D. Drew, Jared Wright (now a Yankee) and Russ Ortiz. I was reminded of the story of two guys in the woods whose campsite is attacked by a bear. One man is lacing up his sneakers while the other, panicked, watches. “What are you doing?” he asks. “You can’t out-run a bear!” The man responds: “I don’t have to out-run the bear. I have to out-run you.” The Phillies don’t have to get much better than they were in 2004, they have have to stay where they are while the Braves decline.

We all predicted that the Braves would hurt from losing players like Gary Sheffield and Greg Maddux, but they've continued to roll on and accumulate division titles. This free agency cycle might be different: here is what Ortiz, Wright and Drew did in 2004:

Ortiz: 4.83 FIP ERA / 6.3 K/9 / 11 Win Shares (1 above average)
Wright: 3.31 FIP ERA / 7.7 K/9 / 13 Win Shares (4 above average
Drew: .342 GPA / .264 ISO / .436 OBP / 126 Runs Created / 34 Win Shares (17 above average)
Total: 58 Win Shares (22 above average)

Losing Drew is going to hurt. 2004 might have been Drew’s unrepeatable career year, but I doubt the Braves are going to find anyone who can come even within .100 of Drew’s GPA stats for 2005. Let’s say these losses cost the Braves 22 games: they’d take a tumble to 74-88. Now, that isn’t likely to happen, but I can’t see the Braves winning 96 games next year. I think they could lose about 10-15 games off their season totals for next year. That would leave the gate wide-open for the Phillies to walk through.

The Phillies haven't had the sort of losses that the Braves have suffered:

Phillies Leaving…
Milton: 8 Win Shares (-1 above average)
Millwood: 5 Win Shares (-2 above average)
Polanco: 17 Win Shares (2 above average)
Byrd: 5 Win Shares (-5 above average)
Total: 35 Win Shares (-6 above average)

(I’m assuming that Byrd will be dealt and that Polanco won’t stay…)

The Phillies replaced them with …
Lidle: (as Red) 3 Win Shares (-4 above average)
(as Phillie) 4 Win Shares (1 above average)
Lieber: 11 Win Shares (2 above average)
Lofton: 8 Win Shares (0 above average)
Utley: 8 Win Shares (0 above average)
Total: 36 Win Shares (-1 above average)

Not great, but they could still keep Polanco and they might get someone of value for Byrd. If Lidle pitches like he did with the Phillies, then they have improved over last year. 88, 90 or even 92 wins are a possible goal for this team.

Which leaves the rest … the Marlins are losing Carl Pavano (20 WS / 9 WSAA) and are replacing him with Al Leiter (12 WS / 4 WSAA). I don’t see the Fish adding anyone else of value, cash-strapped as they are. I think they’ll equal their 83 wins from last year. The Mets? They lost Leiter and spent a fortune to sign Kris Benson. (Benson's wife recently was quoted in SI as saying that she'd basically sleep with anyone remotely connected to the Mets organization if her husband were unfaithful. How about just divorcing him?) Kris Benson? Good luck. I see a battle to stay in fourth for these guys. The Nats? They certainly signed some guys, but Cristian Guzman (16 WS / -1 WSAA), Vinny Castilla (15 WS / -1 WSAA) and Jose Guillen (21 WS / 6 WSAA) aren’t going to turn things around in our nation’s capitol. Washington: first in war, first in peace, last in the National League East.

Here is my (very) preliminary 2005 prediction:

2005 NL East:
Philadelphia: 88-74
Florida: 84-78
Atlanta: 80-82
New York Mets: 73-89
Washington: 71-91

The Phillies are fairly lucky: they compete against a team in a New York market, but that team is arguably the most incompetent in baseball. The Nats seem intent on spending money to show they are serious about something, but what that something happens to be is unclear. The Fish? Too cheap. The Braves? Becoming the Fish. I wonder if this is why the Phillies didn’t feel a need to sign a stud pitcher in the off-season: even doing nothing there is an opening here for the Phillies wide enough to drive a truck through.

More on Monday....

Comments:
You have an interesting blog here. Some of the things people put are kind of strange. Another cool site I like is a affiliate marketing help site that is about information marketing and a little other stuff.

Anyway, I like your blog and will proably be back.

Take care.
 
I have a eastern mountain sports site. It pretty much covers eastern mountain sports related stuff. Check it out if you get time :-)
 
Hey blogger do you know that you can make cash from your blog?

Its so simple a child could do it!

This goes for anyone reading this too.

You can make up to $0.40 per visit with this nice affiliate program called Zangocash

Its one of the best programs out there at the minute and can suit any blogger or webmaster!

To sign up and start earning money right away!

Just click this link below
how to make money with google adsense

So why not start earning today!
 
Hey, you have a great blog here! I'm definitely going to bookmark you!

I have a Ultimate Marketing site/blog. It pretty much covers marketing related stuff.

Come and check it out if you get time :-)
 
Last month I made $12,124 with Google Adsense...Click
here for free on how you can do the same!

 
Greetings! I can see that you have put alot of thought and effort into your blog. very helpful information. Thank You.

Your friend,

web site affiliate program
 
The fact is that the INTERNET is making people RICH! Shouldn't YOU be one of them? Click here: FIND OUT NOW!
 
Are you tired of getting nice compliments on your blog, when really your not makeng the kind of money that you deserve? Now you can join a completely FREE program. No buying and No selling. FREE to join. All you do is refer customers. To get started fast, click here: Home business site. It pretty much covers Home business related stuff and it's FREE to join.
 
Your 'MALL OF THE WORLD!' 2 business from home opportunity work features a vast selection of the same products you'll find in some of the BIGGEST and most successful retail stores!
 
http://www.online-money-making-opportunities.com
 
Are you tired of getting nice compliments on your blog, when really you're not makeng the kind of money that you deserve? Now you can join a completely FREE program. No buying and No selling. FREE to join. All you do is refer customers. To get started fast, click here: free testdrive online site. It pretty much covers free testdrive online related stuff and it's FREE to join.
 
The fact is that the INTERNET is making people RICH! Shouldn't YOU be one of them? Click here: FIND OUT NOW!
 
The fact is that the INTERNET is making people RICH! Shouldn't YOU be one of them? Click here: FIND OUT NOW!
 
Greetings! I can see that you have put alot of thought and effort into your blog. very helpful information. Thank You.

Your friend,

web affiliate program
 
Sweet site man.
I zoned into your site, I dig it.
cheers to your site,
Petey
co lasers in dermatology
http://exclusive-information.net/

Regards,
Gerald E.
http://exclusive-information.net/
co lasers in dermatology
 
Hey just to let you know that yes I am promoting this but if you dont want to save at the pump then dont go to the site but I believe no matter who you are gas is just to expensive.

The goverment is using it and many other huge company's. This is not just some fly by night company or product. This is the real deal.
 
yahoo sports fantasy baseballAny one using the phrase "easy as taking candy from a baby, has never tried taking candy from a baby before.yahoo sports fantasy baseball
 
baseball com fantasy yahooAny one using the phrase "easy as taking candy from a baby, has never tried taking candy from a baby before.baseball com fantasy yahoo
 
Hi my friends! I'm writing to you because I just came across a business that I think has great potential. It lets you save money on almost everything. Make money from almost everything, Including home loans- plus... help lower your taxes--best of all--it requires absolutely no investment. I thought you might be interested and like to check it out...

Here I have a low cost network marketing site/blog. It successfully covers low cost network marketing related stuff and almost everything else!

Come and check it out if you get time, Scott.
 
cbs fantasy baseballAny one using the phrase "easy as taking candy from a baby, has never tried taking candy from a baby before.cbs fantasy baseball
 
Post a Comment

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?