A CITIZEN'S BLOG

Yesterday was truly a black day for Philadelphia sports, an infamy perpetrated upon the fandom that will have reverberations for decades to come. I’ve lived through the Eagles losing the final game at the Vet, the Phillies losing the ’93 World Series, the Charles Barkley trade, and the fog bowl in Chicago, and I can say, without hyperbole, that this is a 1,000 times worse …

… I refer of course to the Phillies decision to give Doug Glanville salary arbitration. More on that later…

The Phillies made decisions on whom to offer salary arbitration to yesterday and the results were mixed:

Offered arbitration: Doug Glanville & Placido Polanco
Not offered arbitration: Eric Milton & Kevin Millwood
Re-signed: Rheal Cormier

Offering arbitration to Polanco means that the Phillies are somewhat serious about keeping him around, and it also shows that the team isn’t entirely out of its mind (see, infra, my discussion of Glanville). I want Polanco to stay around: he’s capable of playing 2B, SS and 3B, so he’s got some range. He isn’t just some light-hitting utility infielder either: .260 GPA / .345 OBP, decent power (.143 ISO / .441 SLG). Polanco has some clutch ability too: .270 BA w/ RISP / .363 OBP leading off an inning. He’s a good glove too: 5.6 Fielding Win Shares per 1,000 innings. Jimmy Rollins had 3.6 Fielding Win Shares per 1,000 innings.*

* Many thanks for Tom at Balls, Sticks & Stuff for putting fielding stats in perspective with his Fielding Win Shares per 1,000 innings stat. I promise only to borrow it for this piece.

I want to see Polanco re-signed and I want to see him manning second base for the Phillies in 2005. I think this decision to offer him arbitration is good news that the organizations realizes what a critical cog he really is.

Good move.

Not offering arbitration to Millwood … well, I understand why not: there is a lot of mileage on that arm and he didn’t particularly pitch well for the Phillies since the ’03 All-Star break. But I’m not convinced that his rough time in 2004 was his fault: true, Millwood had an ERA of 4.85 in 2004, but his FIP ERA is 3.83. The problem Millwood had in 2004 was that the Phillies didn’t field well behind him: his .673 DER was terrible (in contrast, Milton had a .737 DER) and well below the team average of .700 … Millwood generally pitched well: 8.0 K/9, just 0.9 home runs per 9 innings. Millwood also kept the ball down: 1.12 groundball-to-flyball ratio. Because his salary was $11 million in 2004, I understand if the Phillies don’t bring him back, but I think Millwood could pitch well for another team.

Probably a good move.

Re-signing Cormier … I hadn’t realized how good Cormier was until I looked at his stats. He threw 81 innings for the Phils in 2004 and pitched well: 3.56 ERA (higher FIP: 4.21), a sterling 1.76 g/f ratio, just 0.8 home runs/9. Cormier benefited from a good defense (.744 DER), but some of that was his work. Just 16% of Cormier’s pitches put into play were line-drives: most looked to be boring 6-3, 5-3, and 4-3 groundouts. Just what the Phillies needed.

Good move.

Not offering arbitration to Milton means that he can’t re-sign with the Phillies until May 1, and that essentially means he’s gone, gone, gone. Most likely we’ll see Milton in the Bronx in 2005, trying to help buy Steinbrenner another pennant. As far as I am concerned, there is no downside here … Milton was an awful pitcher in 2004. 4.75 ERA. 5.39 FIP ERA (team: 4.55). Milton can’t blame poor defense for his poor pitching either, because the Phillies had a sterling .737 DER behind him in 2004. His 0.57 G/F ratio was worse than any other pitcher on the Phillies staff. His 1.9 home runs per 9 innings was the worst amongst the starters after Paul Abbott.

The best move made so far.

Offering arbitration to Glanville … I applauded the Phillies decisions to this point. Let’s review Glanville’s 2004 stats, shall we?

.210 BA / .244 OBP / .172 GPA / .265 SLG / .056 ISO / .243 BA w/ RISP … -0.4 Batting Win Shares (yes, a negative win share) and 1.8 Fielding Win Shares (5.12 per 1,000 innings). I don’t think his glove justifies keeping him around. He’s a terrible bat off the bench, very impatient at the plate (3.68 pitcher per plate appearance: well below the 3.84 team average). If the Phillies are forced to start him in centerfield because of injuries, he’s a guaranteed 0-for-4 with two or three strikeouts. If the Phillies want a decent fifth outfielder, keep Byrd. Glanville isn’t the answer.

So will we survive this infamy? We can but hope. But on the balance I’d say that I liked four of the Phillies five personnel decisions that were made Tuesday. So far management has been savvy in their decision-making. Let’s hope that continues.