A CITIZEN'S BLOG

I almost had a heart-attack reading the headline at THT: “Around the Majors: Phillies sign Milton”. WHAT?!?!?! Never mind what a bad idea that was, how was that possible since the Phillies had rejected arbitration with him. It was just a misprint: Eric Milton inked a three year, $25.5 mil deal with the Reds. With Milton in Cincinnati, and Kevin Millwood poised to signing with the Cleveland Indians, it looks like the Phillies #1 and #2 starters have found homes in Ohio. Here’s why the Reds got a bad deal, and why the Indians could make a good one …

Milton / Reds

Let’s start with Milton’s 2004 stats …

ERA: 4.75
FIP ERA: 5.38
DER: .737 (team: .703)
G/F ratio: 0.57
HR/9: 1.9
K/9: 7.2
BB/9: 3.4

Glossary:
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching: [13*HR+3*BB-2*K / IP + League Factor]
DER – Defense Efficiency Ratio: % of balls put into play fielders turn into outs.
G/F – Groundball-to-Flyball ratio.
Hr/9 – Home Runs allowed per nine innings.
ZR (Zone Rating): Is a stat which measures a player’s defensive ability by measuring plays they should have made. Admittedly, this is a stat left open to subjective opinions.

The two numbers that jump out at me are the terrific defense he got in 2004 from the Phillies, and the number of flyballs and home runs he surrendered. Milton got great play from a very good Phillies defense that was sixth in the NL in Zone Rating and second in fielding percentage. The Reds were ninth in ZR and thirteenth in fielding percentage, not bad but a definate downgrade. The quality of defense that Milton is leaving is going to unmask a lot of his flaws as a pitcher. That +5.00 FIP ERA is going to be closer to his actual ERA in 2005, I bet.

Park Factor: when Great American opened I was stunned to see how many home runs were hit. Surprisingly, according to ESPN’s Park Factors page, Great American had a home run factor of just 1.048, thirteenth in baseball. (This gives me great confidence that Citizen’s home run reputation will be unmasked as much ado about nothing in 2005.) So Milton is probably leaving a place that accentuated his flyball flaws (Citizen's was fifth in baseball in homers), but he’s hardly going to Safeco field. He’ll give up home runs, and he’ll give up a lot. Remember, Milton surrendered 43 home runs in 2004, but just 20 were at Citizens Bank. Milton gave up 23 home runs on the road, despite facing fewer batters there.

Not good, Cincinnati. Not good. You guys are getting a bad deal.

Millwood / Indians

ERA: 4.85
FIP ERA: 3.82
DER: .673 (team: .703)
G/F ratio: 1.10
HR/9: 0.9
K/9: 8.0
BB/9: 3.3

Millwood pitched a lot better than he looked in 2004. The Phillies seemed to give up a lot of cheap hits with him on the mound for some reason. Give Millwood credit: he didn’t give up a lot of flyballs and he didn’t surrender many home runs in a stadium built for shattering home run records. Millwood’s K-to-BB ratio was a sterling 2.5 to 1. My sole worry for Millwood is the poor quality of the Indians defense: 12th (of 14) in the AL in ZR. Ouch.

Still, I think Millwood will pitch well as an Indian and he could give the Tribe a lot of help in the weak AL Central. I’m hardly guaranteeing a pennant, but a healthy Millwood could give Cleveland a leg up on Minnesota or Chicago.

Sorry Reds fans, you'll soon see why our team didn't offer arbitration.