A CITIZEN'S BLOG

I was playing around with the pythagorean records of teams from the 2004 season, curious to see if the Phillies did better or worse than they should have. Last season the Phillies finished with 86 wins and under-performed their Pythagorean record by four games (they should have won 90). I think we all held out hopes that the additions of Milton, Worrell and Wagner would push the Phillies over the top, that they'd at least break the 90 win threshold. This year there was no doubt that the Phillies were undeserving of a playoff berth:

NL East: Pythagorean Wins (Actual Win variance)
Atlanta: 96 (0)
Philadelphia: 87 (-1)
Florida: 83 (0)
New York Mets: 76 (-5)
Montreal: 65 (+2)

The Marlins and Braves did what was expected, the Phillies and Mets actually over-performed, and the Expos should have been a little better.

Curious, I ran the numbers for a few other teams and here is what I found: the Cardinals and Dodgers slightly out performed their Pythagorean record by three games, and the Houston Astros got exactly what they were projected to get: 92 wins. The Cubs under-performed their Pythagorean record by five games. (They should have beaten the Astros by two games.) I think the Cubs, if they can resolve the Sammy Sosa situation, have a chance to make the playoffs in ’05 and be a pretty good team.

Over in the AL, the Oakland A’s have some cause for concern in 2005: they over-performed their Pythagorean record by five games. They should have finished the season with 86 wins, instead of 91. The Twins also over-performed by four games. I wonder if these teams are due for a let-down in ’05 … as for the battle of the titans between the Red Sox and Yankees, while the Yankees won the AL East by three games the Red Sox were clearly superior:

Pythagorean record:
Red Sox: 98-64
Yankees: 89-73

Actual record:
Red Sox: 98-64
Yankees: 101-61

The Yankees twelve game variance is, incidentally, the biggest in history, the previous record being 11 games by one of the Reds teams of the ‘70s. (1976 Reds, but don’t quote me.)

It will be interesting to see what changes are made in the Bronx in the off-season, because this team was clearly out-gunned by the Red Sox last year and won’t win against them in 2005.