A CITIZEN'S BLOG

I’m working on a few subject posts, so today I’m treating everyone to a few random thoughts swirling around in my head … Before I go any further, I want to thank A Fistfull of Hughs and Willets Point, two new blogs devoted to the Cubs and Mets respectively, for linking to A Citizen's Blog. Check them out as soon as you get a chance. I'll update my blogroll today.

Back to baseball ... Tim Hudson's status is the big issue at the Winter Meetings I see. I tend to think that the A’s will deal Tim Hudson to the Dodgers soon, deal Zito mid-season (Orioles?) and lock up a long-term deal with Mark Mulder for a lot less than they’d have to pay Hudson. The Big Three haven’t been what they used to be:

Hudson: 3.64 FIP ERA; 2.58 g/f; 16 Win Shares (6 WSAA)
Mulder: 4.75 FIP ERA; 2.02 g/f; 15 Win Shares (3 WSAA)
Zito: 4.73 FIP ERA; 0.84 g/f; 12 Win Shares (1 WSAA)

Glossary:
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching ERA
G/F: Groundball / Flyball ratio
WSAA: Win Shares Above Average

Hudson is still a super-star and he should fetch the A’s high-value. While that goundball-to-flyball ratio has Phillies fans drooling, I suspect he’ll end up in LA pitching for the Dodgers … I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I think that Paul DePodesta is building a jauggernaut in the City ‘o Angels. If the Dodgers sign Adrian Beltre or Carlos Beltran, I think they will return in 2005 as the favorites in the NL West and my pick to win the NL. DePodesta has the right strategy and like Theo Epstein he’s got the cash to compete. The Dodgers are going to be good in 2005. 100 Wins good. This is a team that could be dominant for years to come … Marlon Byrd is apparently on the choping block and the Phillies are looking to deal him straight up for the Brewers Scott Podsednik. Color me unimpressed: Podsednik spent years in the minors, had a decent season in 2003, and looked awful last year:

Podsednik: .231 GPA / .313 OBP / .364 SLG
Byrd: .209 GPA / .287 OBP / .321 SLG

Plus, do the Phillies need another reserve centerfielder? The Phillies can do better than that … Kevin Millwood is apparently headed to St. Louis or Atlanta for the very reasonable price of $3 million a year. Let’s hope its St. Louis, because I think that he’ll have a good season next year: Millwood’s FIP ERA was 3.83, much lower than Wolf, Padilla, Myers or Milton. Millwood didn’t give up many home runs (0.9 hr/9innings), and generally was the victim of substandard defense (.673 DER, .027 below the team average). I don’t want the Phillies to see him four or five times next year.

Charlie Manuel says that Lofton will be hitting second, after Jimmy Rollins. Here is the Phillies projected 2005 lineup:

SS Rollins: .264 GPA / .166 ISO
CF Lofton: .260 GPA / .120 ISO
LF Abreu: .321 GPA / .242 ISO
1B Thome: .316 GPA / .307 ISO
RF Burrell: .272 GPA / .199 ISO
3B Bell: .271 GPA / .167 ISO
2B Utley: .250 GPA / .202 ISO
C Lieberthal: .262 GPA / .176 ISO
Pitcher

David Wells is a Red Sox: isn’t that hilarious, given Wells well-documented obsession with Babe Ruth and his history with the Yankees? Who wouldn’t want to see Wells start Game Seven of the 2005 ALCS against the Yankees in the Bronx? Who wouldn’t pay $10,000 a ticket to be there for that? … According to The Hardball Times, the Mets are trying to acquire Manny Ramirez. Snort. Kris Benson, Manny … the Mets sure know how to build a stable team, don’t they? … Speaking of THT: Aaron Gleeman and Studes have nice articles analyzing the current free agent deals. Read ‘em. …

-Non-baseball odds ‘n ends … I came close with my prediction for this weekend’s Eagles-Redskins game (24-14; actual score: 17-14). I’m slightly surprised at how many Eagles games I’ve been able to see this year: I’ve seen eight or nine games, which is rare for me since live in Pittsburgh. I suppose I have the Eagles three NFC championship games and the acquisition of T.O. to thank for the increased exposure … It is great that they are 12-1, but I wasn’t overly impressed by yesterday’s performance. McNabb was o.k., and the Eagles looked really penned in by the Redskins defense: T.O. had just six catches for 46 yards, and Westbrook had just 59 yards rushing. This was one of their worst performances of the season, a cut above the Pittsburgh game and a little worse than the Ravens game … So if the Eagles beat the Cowboys next Sunday, or if the Falcons lose to the Carolina Panthers on satuday night, the Eagles clinch homefield throughout the playoffs. Sweet … During last night’s game my wife turned to me and said: “What are the chances of an Eagles-Steelers Super Bowl?” I waved my hands: “So-so … the Steelers would have to get past the Patriots and Colts first.” She replied: “If they did, I bet you’d love throwing a Super Bowl party for that…” I just smiled. Yes I would … Speaking of the Steelers, I still think that the Patriots will win homefield advantage: with games against the two worst teams in the NFL (Miami and the 49ers, combined record: 4-22), the Pats will almost certainly go 15-1 this season, and I think the Steelers will lose one game. They have a tougher record with the Ravens, Giants and Bills coming up … I’m stunned that there are three 12-1 teams in the NFL. In this age of parity and free agency, to see four teams (I’m including the Colts in the ranks of the elite) so throughly dominate the rest of the competition is stunning stuff. Good management counts for something, and the Eagles, Pats, Steelers and Colts got it. That is what separates them from the Vikings of the NFL … I still stand by my prediction that the Eagles will go 14-2: at a minimum, they’ll win one of the last three games of the season and set a new franchise record for wins with 13. I’d dearly love to see them go 15-1, but that may not be feasible, particularly if the Falcons lose to the Panthers. Why play McNabb, TO, Westbrook, Kearse and the rest of the D-line if they’ve got the conference title?

-I got started on an interesting book yesterday. I began reading Richard Ben Cramer’s Joe DiMaggio. Cramer is a spectacular writer. He wrote the best book I’ve ever read: What It Takes (which won the Pulitzer Prize in 1992), a biography of six 1988 Presidential candidates (Gary Hart, Dick Gephardt, Joe Biden, Mike Dukakis, George Bush* & Bob Dole). Cramer also wrote the best piece I’ve ever read in Sports Illustrated: a 1995 profile of Cal Ripken, Jr. that I liked reading so much I cut it out of the magazine and have saved it for all of those years.

* (Our current President makes a short cameo in an early chapter where he’s berating someone. Cramer decribes him as the family “hot-head”.)

I’ve covered the first part of Joe DiMaggio, which deals with his life in San Francisco until he signed with the Yankees before the 1936 season. I’m not sure how to describe Cramer’s writing style. It is different, unique, it’s … amazing to read. You want to turn the next page. You don’t want to quit reading. I’m looking forward to reading the rest of the book.

-My wife & I watched a little of VH1’s America’s Next Top Model marathon. (Neither of us are proud to admit that...) Truly, intelligence is a handicap in the fashion world. We were watching the episode where the girls went to Tokyo and my wife made a joke about the girls calling people “Tokyosians”. Literally, two minutes later one of the girls actually said that these didn’t know or understand the “Tokyosian”. I'm not making that up.

I suppose sometimes pretty boxes are empty inside.

-Desperate Housewives was good: nice plot twist at the end with Carlos going to jail instead of Gabrielle. I enjoy the show a lot and not just for all of the hot, sweaty nakedness, which is what the media focuses on. It’s a soapy show, definitely, but the writers have also hit upon a universal theme that everyone can relate too: the harried life of suburbanites, the compromises people make and the difficulties of making your way through life when things are much more complicated and difficult than they ever were before. The show is clever, well-written, has characters everyone can relate to (aside from trophy wife Gabrielle) and it keeps you guessing each week.

Tomorrow look for some “regular” content.