A CITIZEN'S BLOG

One of the most interesting things about the 2005 Bill James Handbook are James injury projections for the 2005 season. Sure as the sun will come up tomorrow, some sort of injury is going to crop up that will cost the Phillies a player or two. James has made some projections for 2005:

Projected Starting Lineup: Games / Injury Risk
SS Rollins: 158 Games / Low Injury Risk
CF Lofton: 105 Games / Low Injury Risk
LF Abreu: 156 Games / High Injury Risk
1B Thome: 137 Games / High Injury Risk
LF Burrell: 151 Games / High Injury Risk
3B Bell: 148 Games / Medium Injury Risk
2B Utley: 155 Games / Low Injury Risk
C Lieberthal: 125 Games / High Injury Risk
IF Polanco: 136 Games / High Injury Risk

Some thoughts: Lieberthal isn’t much of a surprise. Catchers are injury prone and need to take some time off to rest their weary knees. I looked it up and the NL’s most durable catcher in 2004 was the Dodgers & Marlins Paul Lo Duca, who played in 143 games. Lieberthal himself played in 131, which was one of the best. Mercifully, the Phillies have one of the best backup catchers in the biz, Todd Pratt … The number(s) that did jump out at me were intertwined: Thome’s projected 137 games, and the “high” injury risk attached to the Phillies Big Three of Abreu, Thome and Burrell.

First, Thome. He played in 143 games in 2004 and turns 35 next August. Thome is still enormously productive (42 home runs, .396 OBP, .581 SLG), but this will be his 15 MLB season. I tend to agree with James, there is an enormus liklihood that he’ll suffer a serious injury in 2005.

Second, the Big Three. While Burrell and Abreu are projected to be more durable bats for the Phillies in 2005, the fact that all three are rated high injury risks is troubling. Where would the Phillies be without any of them? They accounted for 44% of the Phillies home runs, 36% of their RBIs, and 28% of the team hits, despite missing a total of 57 games (Thome: 19, Burrell: 35, and Abreu: 3). It seems likely that Thome and one of the other two will suffer an injury in 2005 that will require a long stint on the DL. With the Phillies luck, Abreu will be the one who goes down with an injury.

But, as I said, these are just projections. Nobody can see the future. (I loved the quote from Yogi Berra that James stuck on page 385: “Prediction is difficult – especially of the future.”) But I think the lesson I’ve been getting is that you can’t fight the probabilities. If a player is likely to decline statistically, he will. If a player is likely to strike out in X situation, he will. If Thome is projected to miss 25 games, he’ll miss somewhere between 20-30. If the Phillies big three are high injury risks, they’ll probably lose one.

Just play the numbers.