A CITIZEN'S BLOG

Pitching stats are interesting to read because, unlike batting stats, so much of how well pitchers do depends on the fielders behind him. Attempts have been made to divorce things like Batting Average Allowed and WHIP from a pitcher’s stats because they don’t accurately reflect how a pitcher … well … pitched. Which is where DIPS, Defense Independent Pitching Statistic comes in.

Any of you how read Moneyball know the story of DIPS well: paralegal Voros McCracken noticed that Greg Maddux had been giving up a lot of hits during the ’99 season while teammate Kevin Millwood had been doing well. Looking at the numbers for the subsequent season, Millwood had gotten slammed and Maddux had done well. It made McCracken wonder what the true measure of a pitcher was. Were things like ERAs inaccurate because they depended on the quality of the fielders behind him? McCracken sat down and created a statistic that evaluated players based on how well they controlled things like how many walks they gave up, how many strikeouts, and how many home runs allowed – all things a pitcher can control – rather than things like runs and hits allowed. Ta-da … DIPS.

The problem with DIPS is that it is way too complicated to replicate without a computer program crunching the numbers. Whenever I crunch baseball numbers I typically used Hardball Times Fielding Independent Pitching stat because the formula is so easy to understand and to calculate:

((13*HR+3*BB-2*K) / IP ) + League Factor [I use 3.20]

I can do it in thirty seconds on my TI-85 graphing calculator (I guess I got something out of college algebra after all). However, I do think DIPS is the more accurate stat, so whenever I get a chance to discuss the Phillies DIPS stats, I jump at the chance. Thankfully, Futility Infielder recently published its complete 2004 DIPS stats for all of the public to see. Click here for the numbers.

Here is how the Phillies did, compared to their actual ERAs:

Rotation: ERA / DIPS (variance)
Milton: 4.75 / 5.18 (+0.43)
Millwood: 4.85 / 3.75 (-1.10)
Padilla: 4.53 / 4.46 (-0.07)
Myers: 5.52 / 5.02 (-0.50)
Wolf: 4.28 / 4.50 (+0.22)

Split Teams*: ERA / DIPS (variance)
Lidle: 4.90 / 4.47 (-0.43)
Abbott: 6.47 / 6.95 / (+0.48)

* Lidle and Abbott pitched part of the year with other teams, so their stats include innings they pitched with the Reds (Lidle) and the Devil Rays (Abbott).

Bullpen: ERA / DIPS (variance)
Madson: 2.34 / 3.55 (+1.21)
Wagner: 2.42 / 2.45 (+0.03)
Worrell: 3.68 / 3.82 (+0.15)
Telemaco: 4.31 / 5.67 (+1.36)
Cormier: 3.56 / 4.18 (+0.63)

I found a few things interesting:

-I maintained that Kevin Millwood had gotten a raw deal last year and I think I’m justified in believing so. His DIPS ERA is over a run lower than his actual ERA because he was the one Phillies starting pitcher who didn’t give up many home runs. The 1.10 variance between Millwood’s ERA and his DIPS ERA is actually the sixth largest in the MLB. The simple problem he had in 2004 was that Phillies fielders couldn’t get to the balls put into play. Millwood had the fifth highest BA for balls put into play (BA/BIP) in 2004: .327 … Millwood’s DIPS ERA is actually one of the thirty best in the MLB in 2004. I think the Indians got a great deal when they signed him.

-The Phillies decision to let Milton go, despite a 14-6 record and 161 strikeouts, was the correct one. The man gave up 43 home runs in 2004. That’s one every twenty batters he faced. Yikes. The only reason why his ERA didn’t climb north of 5.00 was because the Phillies gave him great defense: .263 BA/BIP. While the Phillies decision to let him go was their smartest of the off-season, the Reds decision to bring him into a park as home run friendly as Great American makes me question the Reds sanity.

When the Reds traded for Ken Griffey Jr in 2000 I really thought they were building a dynasty on the Ohio. What in the heck happened? Since they won 96 games in ’99 they’ve been snake-bit and without a clue. Bringing Milton into town is going to be a catastrophic decision on their part. This guy could give up 50+ home runs in 2005!

-Notice that the Phillies bullpen all out-performed their DIPS ERAs. I don’t think this will be a big deal in 2005, but one of the things that held the team together last year was that the bullpen seemed able to enter the game and shut the opposition down at critical moments. Was that a mirage?

I’m particularly interested to see what Ryan Madson does in 2005. He had a heck of a season (aside from his start in Chicago), but 1.21 is a huge difference between actual ERA and DIPS.

-For those who doubt the wisdom of the Phillies management, the signing of Yankees hurler Jon Lieber might make you all believers in 2005. Lieber posted one of the top thirty DIPS ERAs in the majors in 2004, with 3.77 (done in the American League, mind you). There was a 0.56 variance between Lieber’s actual ERA, one of the largest in the MLB. Lieber pitched very well for the Yankees and it looks like his season basically flew under the radar of the MLB establishment. This was a smart move by the Phillies.