Tuesday, January 18, 2005
Ryan Howard: Insurance Policy
Phillies bloggers have spent a good deal of the offseason debating about what to do with the Phillies phenom of the future, Ryan Howard. 2004 was (and 2005 continues to be) a good year of Ryan Howard, demolishing AA pitching at Reading …
(in 102 Games)
.386 OBP
.647 SLG
.335 GPA
37 HR
102 RBI
86 Runs Created
… then he breezed through Triple-A Scranton …
(in 29 Games)
.362 OBP
.604 SLG
.314 GPA
9 HR
29 RBI
21 Runs Created
…and played well during his callup with the Phillies…
(in 19 Games)
.333 OBP
.564 SLG
.291 GPA
2 HR
5 RBI
7 Runs Created
… so what now? Howard is 26 and wants to play MLB baseball full-time. His natural position, first base, is occupied by a future Hall of Famer. The Phillies have discussed dealing him, and Howard himself seems eager to leave to play first base in the majors. Should the Phillies deal him? I say no:
Let’s start by discussing the exceptional talent that Howard possesses. He is a lot like a younger version of Jim Thome: he hits for power, gets on base and plays first base. Although projecting stats for players with scant MLB experience is difficult, here is what Bill James projects Howard will do if he plays with the Phillies in 2005:
Games: 112 / Injury Risk: Low
HR: 34
2B: 26
OBP: .335
SLG: .561
GPA: .291
Runs: 76
RBI: 104
Runs Created: 82
That he’d be a productive bat, even if he falls short of these numbers, there is no question. Can the Phillies afford to keep him, with Thome entrenched at first? I say yes: as insurance for 2005. Thome is rated as a high injury risk in the 2005 Bill James Handbook, projected to miss something like 20-30 games. Thome already missed 19 last season and 15 in 2002 (remarkably, he missed just 3 in 2003), so he’s hardly Cal Ripken, Jr. It seems likely that Howard will get to start a dozen to two dozen games at first in 2005, to say nothing of DH-ing during interleague games and coming off the bench to pinch hit. Howard could play up to fifty or sixty games for the Phillies, and if Thome goes down with an injury, maybe more. Imagine if the Phillies dealt Howard and then lost Thome for the season? They’d be finished.
What other positions could Howard play? At the moment the Phillies outfield is full, but Kenny Lofton in centerfield is a transitory solution at best. The Phillies could move Pat Burrell to center and put Howard in leftfield. All indications are that Howard is athletic enough to play in the corners of the outfield.
My point is that I think the Phillies need to keep Howard, have him play off the bench and as a part-time starter in 2005 and find a spot for him in 2006. Third base? Left field? He is a tremendous talent, and it would be short-sighted for the Phillies to let him go, particularly with guys like Thome, Bell and Abreu entering their mid-30’s. I think keeping Howard is sound decision-making for the future and a prudent insurance policy for the present.
(in 102 Games)
.386 OBP
.647 SLG
.335 GPA
37 HR
102 RBI
86 Runs Created
… then he breezed through Triple-A Scranton …
(in 29 Games)
.362 OBP
.604 SLG
.314 GPA
9 HR
29 RBI
21 Runs Created
…and played well during his callup with the Phillies…
(in 19 Games)
.333 OBP
.564 SLG
.291 GPA
2 HR
5 RBI
7 Runs Created
… so what now? Howard is 26 and wants to play MLB baseball full-time. His natural position, first base, is occupied by a future Hall of Famer. The Phillies have discussed dealing him, and Howard himself seems eager to leave to play first base in the majors. Should the Phillies deal him? I say no:
Let’s start by discussing the exceptional talent that Howard possesses. He is a lot like a younger version of Jim Thome: he hits for power, gets on base and plays first base. Although projecting stats for players with scant MLB experience is difficult, here is what Bill James projects Howard will do if he plays with the Phillies in 2005:
Games: 112 / Injury Risk: Low
HR: 34
2B: 26
OBP: .335
SLG: .561
GPA: .291
Runs: 76
RBI: 104
Runs Created: 82
That he’d be a productive bat, even if he falls short of these numbers, there is no question. Can the Phillies afford to keep him, with Thome entrenched at first? I say yes: as insurance for 2005. Thome is rated as a high injury risk in the 2005 Bill James Handbook, projected to miss something like 20-30 games. Thome already missed 19 last season and 15 in 2002 (remarkably, he missed just 3 in 2003), so he’s hardly Cal Ripken, Jr. It seems likely that Howard will get to start a dozen to two dozen games at first in 2005, to say nothing of DH-ing during interleague games and coming off the bench to pinch hit. Howard could play up to fifty or sixty games for the Phillies, and if Thome goes down with an injury, maybe more. Imagine if the Phillies dealt Howard and then lost Thome for the season? They’d be finished.
What other positions could Howard play? At the moment the Phillies outfield is full, but Kenny Lofton in centerfield is a transitory solution at best. The Phillies could move Pat Burrell to center and put Howard in leftfield. All indications are that Howard is athletic enough to play in the corners of the outfield.
My point is that I think the Phillies need to keep Howard, have him play off the bench and as a part-time starter in 2005 and find a spot for him in 2006. Third base? Left field? He is a tremendous talent, and it would be short-sighted for the Phillies to let him go, particularly with guys like Thome, Bell and Abreu entering their mid-30’s. I think keeping Howard is sound decision-making for the future and a prudent insurance policy for the present.
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