A CITIZEN'S BLOG

By 6:00 PM on Sunday the Philadelphia region will either be giddy with happiness at the Eagles first Super Bowl berth in 24 years, or slumped over in dark melancholy at the Eagles fourth consecutive defeat in the NFC title game. But there will still be another game yet to play that day, the AFC title game between the Steelers and Patriots. I'm sure it will be a good one. The Steelers and Pats were a combined 31-3 this season (inc. the playoffs and their game against each other), a terrific record of achievement. Here's how they stack up:

DEFENSE:

The Steelers played well on paper defensively in 2004:

Rushing defense: 81.2 ypg, 1st in the AFC
Passing defense: 177.2 ypg, 3rd in the AFC
Points Allowed: 15.7 ppg, 1st the AFC
Takeaways: 28, tied for 7th in the AFC

Make no mistake about it, the Steelers played some good football and made some big plays in 2004. Then again, the Steelers impressive defensive performance was (partly) a product of their opponants: they played the Baltimore Ravens, the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals all twice each. Six of their sixteen wins were against four of the AFC's five worst scoring offenses. The Steelers also didn't face the AFC's top three scoring teams: the Chiefs, the Chargers and the Colts.

In contrast, the Patriots look a little worse on paper:

Rushing defense: 98.3 ypg, 5th in the AFC
Passing defense: 212.5 ypg, 10th in the AFC
Points Allowed: 16.3 ppg, 2nd in the AFC
Takeaways: 30, tied for 3rd in the AFC

Worse than the Stillers, but the Patriots played a higher caliber of opponants in 2004, holding the Colts in 24, the Chiefs to 19 and the Rams to 22. The Patriots occasionally gave up yardage to opponants, but forced turnovers and generally left opponants frustrated. Beating Peyton Manning twice in a season is impressive stuff. If the Patriots are weak anywhere defensively, it is in their secondary, a vulnerability the Steelers seem unable to exploit given their run-oriented nature and Big Ben's poor performance against the Jets.

Advantage: slight edge to the Patriots.

OFFENSE:

The Steelers and Patriots are two very different teams on offense:

Steelers:
Rushing yards: 154.0, 1st in the AFC
Passing yards: 170.0, 15th in the AFC
Scoring: 23.3, 8th in AFC
Third Down Conversions: 42.9%, 4th in AFC

For all of the talk about Big Ben, the Steelers key players in 2004 were Duce and Bettis. Their ability to run the ball was impressive and critical to the Steelers season. The Steelers inability to throw the ball with success is surprising with all of the hoopla over Big Ben: the Steelers were a little better than the Ravens throwing the ball.

Patriots:
Rushing yards: 133.4, 6th in the AFC
Passing yards: 224.3, 6th in the AFC
Scoring: 27.3, 4th in AFC
Third Down Conversions: 45.1%, 3rd in AFC

The Pats are a very balanced team. Having Corey Dillon in the lineup is the biggest difference between this game and the Steelers 34-20 win on Halloween. With Dillon in the game I don't think the Steelers can afford to tee-off on Brady and play blitz the QB. Meanwhile, the Patriots mission, especially with Big Ben struggling, is clear: stop Duce, stop Bettis. Put eight guys in the box and make Big Ben air the ball out, especially if the weather is lousy.

Advantage: the balance of the Patriots wins out.

INTANGIBLES:

This is the fifth time in a decade that the AFC title game is going to be played in Pittsburgh. Bill Cowher is a dropped hail mary from being 0-4 in those games. I've never been a big fan of Cowher: his teams always seem to get out-coached and out-fought in the playoffs.

I think Bill Belichick, in contrast, is a genius. The Patriots never seem out of it: they always seem aggressive, intelligent and cohesive. They execute flawlessly. Man-for-man the Steelers might have more raw talent, but Belichick makes better use of his. Belichick is the reason why the Pats are favorites to win despite having to some to cold, snowy Heinz Field to face 57,000+ screaming Steelers fans.

Advantage: Patriots (coaching strategy trumps homefield).

Prediction: Patriots 24-21.