A CITIZEN'S BLOG

I was looking at the Hardball Times ’04 stats for clues about the upcoming season the other day. They had an interesting stat that I’ve never really paid attention to before: batting average of balls put into play (BABIP).

Here’s how the sixteen NL teams did in BABIP in 2004:

Colorado: .317
Atlanta: .313
St. Louis: .313
San Diego: .305
Milwaukee: .304
Pittsburgh: .301
Philadelphia: .300
Cincinnati: .297
Florida: .297
Houston: .297
Chicago: .295
Los Angeles: .294
San Francisco: .293
Arizona: .289
New York: .284
Montreal: .274
NL average: .298

What does it mean? I’m not sure exactly. Let’s assume that this is something few (if any) batters can control. Think about pitching stats: a pitcher can’t control where the ball goes to, can he? Similarly, a batter can’t significantly control where the ball goes when he's at the plate. (At least this is my theory.) So BABIP tracks a little bit of luck? So maybe that means that teams like St. Louis, Atlanta and Colorado were lucky in 2004. The hits that fell into the gaps for doubles in 2004 won’t in 2005. This might portend fall-offs for the Braves, Cards and Rocks at the plate this season. Given that the Braves lost J.D. Drew, their best offensive threat in the off-season, that might be very likely with the Braves.

The good news for the Phillies is that their .300 BABIP basically tracks the NL average of .298, which suggests to me that the Phillies have a stable attack that will remain unchanged in ’05.

I could also see massive improvement with the Mets as well: adding Beltran will help and the Mets seemed a little unlucky in ’04.

There you go. More tomorrow.