A CITIZEN'S BLOG

I was three years old when the Eagles lost Super Bowl XV to the Oakland Raiders 27-10. (By the way, ESPN Classic ran the highlights of the game last Saturday Night at 7:00.) People older than I still talk about how disappointing that game was to watch, how surprising it was that the Eagles of Jaws and Vermeil and Harold Carmichael lost to the Raiders. Since then the team hasn't been back: 24 years of lousy records (mid-'80s), teams that didn't live up to their potential (late-'80s, early-'90s), teams that had lousier records (late-'90s) and teams that made it to the cusp of the Super Bowl, only to fall short (the Andy Reid era, pre-2004). Sunday the Eagles will play the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XXXIX. It will be a terrific game. Here are my thoughts:

Eagles Defense v. Patriots Offense

Hard not to be impressed by what we all saw against the Falcons, isn't it? The Eagles defensive unit was aggressive and tough. They'll have to be, facing off with the Patriots offense.

I'm always impressed by Tom Brady. The man has a great arm, makes great decisions and is surrounded by terrific talent. The Patriots may not have great individual performers, but they are smart and solid and they get the job done. The addition of Corey Dillon has given Brady a lot of weapons to work with. His wideouts are never dominating individual players, but they collectively form an impressive whole: they always get open, they always make the catch and they always do little things like block and run precise routes well. And the Patriots line is pretty good too: tough and aggressive. Few flaws here. The best thing the Eagles can do is try and replicate what the Steelers did on Halloween: stuff the run (the Steelers had an easier time doing that: Corey Dillon missed that game), and try to hit Brady as much as possible.

Mission: Impossible? I think the Eagles can stymie the Patriots offense and hold their own defensively. Since Jeremiah Trotter moved to middle linebacker the Eagles have played commanding run defense, so I don't think they will be out-muscled the way the Steelers were. Unlike the Steelers, the Eagles secondary is terrific in coverage and hard-hitting, so the Eagles won't give up the Big Play to Brady. I'd look for Brady to hit lots of short six, seven, eight yard routes and try to control the clock with Dillon. I think the Patriots will choose to manage risk against the Eagles blitz and play conservative against a unit with few weaknesses. This might be the hardest defense the Patriots have seen all year, so it will be interesting to see how they do.

Brian Dawkins will be critical to the Eagles chances: he'll be asked to drop into coverage, pressure Brady on blitzes and function as a fourth linebacker against Dillon. If you are looking for a potential MVP candidate for the game, look at Dawkins.

Eagles Offense v. Patriots Defense

This is going to be the critical matchup of the Super Bowl. Will T.O. play? What effect will he have? Will the Eagles depleted offense be able to move the ball against the strong Patriots unit?

-T.O.: Will T.O. play? Ugh. This is the $64,000 question, isn't it? I worry about the distraction this is having on the Eagles gameplan for Sunday.

I hear that he’s going to play. He says he’s going to play. I can’t see him either playing, or having much of an effect on the game. I know he wants in there, but I think he’s foolish to risk injuring his leg for the sake of getting to play in the big game. I see T.O. as the Eagles #4 wideout, and he’ll probably make a catch or two, but that’s about all.

-I see few holes in the Patriots D aside from some weakness in the defensive backfield. I was impressed watching the Steelers game: time and again the Steelers, one of the NFL's top rushing teams, would pound the line with Duce or Bettis and the Patriots would shoot through the gaps and knock the play for no gain. The Patriots ability to penetrate the line and disrupt offensive timing is what the Eagles need to avoid. McNabb is a great QB, but he's going to need the time to establish a rhythm and get the rest of the team past the initial "we're playing in the Super Bowl" jitters. Controlling the line of scrimmage, stopping the pass rush and attacking the Patriots pass defense is going to be critical. Watch the Eagles offensive line and see if they can hold off the Patriots front seven. That is critical.

The Eagles chief flaw on offense is that they simply cannot establish a power running game, something we've all fretted about, but the Eagles were able to escape. I love Brian Westbrook, but he can carry the ball only 15-20 times a game before running out of gas. And in any case, he's best on the perimeter or in the open field. Dorsey Levens is a terrific B-back, but he's just too slow to be a full-timer. This could be the game where the Eagles finally miss Correll Buckhalter (remember him?).

I also hate seeing Chad Lewis out of the Eagles lineup. One thing I thought might give the Eagles an edge was LJ Smith and Lewis stretching the defense and forcing the Patriots linebackers to play in coverage, rather than blitzing. With Lewis out, this will increase pressure on LJ to be a weapon. If the Eagles can spread the ball around and spread the Patriots defense, I think they'll have success. If the Eagles can make the Patriots linebacking corps play back, they'll win. If they let the Patriots get pressure on McNabb and force him to rely on the Eagles wideouts, the Patriots will have success.

I have a bad feeling about this matchup: the Eagles offense isn't a one-man team, but not having Lewis, T.O. and Buckhalter in the big game is problematic for me: losing each player costs the Eagles an opportunity to do different things. Losing Lewis frees up the Patriots linebackers. Losing T.O. takes the pressure off of a weaker secondary. Losing Buckhalter means the Eagles don't have a true tailback to establish a power running game.

The game will be one or lost on the Eagles ability to take the fight to the Pats front seven.

Mark my words.

Intangibles

Hey, remember the Patriots - Eagles game back in week two of the 2003 season? The Eagles lost 31-10 in what was (arguably) the worst game of the Andy Reid era. The thing that I remembered the most about that game was how desperate both teams were to win, wanting to avoid an 0-2 start to their seasons. I wonder if the ghosts of that game will come back to haunt the birds. (McNabb went 18 for 46, 186 yards and threw two picks in that game.)

I've actually been listening to a little AM sports talk for the last two weeks and what I've heard has been irritating me: the Eagles don't stand a chance. The oddsmakers agree and have the Eagles as six-point underdogs. Grr... I don't buy the idea that the Patriots are that much better than the Eagles. I think both teams are roughly equal in terms of talent and the usual strategic advantage the Pats enjoy with Belichick & Co. planning out the game simply doesn't exist here. Andy Reid and Jim Johnson are just as smart and just as creative as Belichick when it comes to devising strategy, maybe more so. No disrespect to Tony Dungy and Bill Cowher, but neither is a particularly smart coach or a particularly innovative thinker. Now Belichick has met his match. This will be the best planned defense Brady sees all year. What happens if their field general falters in the clutch?

Bottom-line, don't expect one side to out-coach the other. These two teams are led by some of the game's most innovative thinkers. This will be a real chess-match.

As for history, there is a lot of talk about the Patriots "dynasty", but it is interesting how little credit the Eagles are gettting for their run: 59-21 (.738) in the regular season (66-25, .725, inc. the playoffs), five consecutive playoff berths, four consecutive division titles and four consecutive berths in the conference title game between 2000-2004. With a bit better luck, the Eagles might be playing for their second or third Super Bowl title in four or five years (I think the '02 team would have trounced the Oakland Raiders). This era might be one of the two or three finest in the team's history. What about the Eagles dynasty? If the Eagles win I think you'll hear a lot of talk along those lines: the whole team will be back in 2005 essentially intact. Even if the Birds lose in Super Bowl XXXIX, there is no reason to expect they won't be back next year. Or the year after that.

Conclusions

I'd like to predict an Eagles victory. I really would, but I just don't see it happening. Oh, I think it will be a close game and the Pats might need Adam Vinateri to win it just like in '02 and '04, but I think the Patriots will win. With a 100% healthy T.O., well ... I'd probably go with my heart and pick the Birds. But my gut tells me that the Patriots are just a little better. The veteran edge is what tips the balance.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Eagles 24