A CITIZEN'S BLOG

We’ll start our 2005 previews with the American League … Today: the AL East.

Proj. Standings:
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Devil Rays

On paper the Yankees are the stronger team. A-Rod, Jeter, Matsui, Sheffield, Big Unit, Rivera, Mussina … these guys should be a jauggernaut, but I’m going with the Red Sox. It is hard to evaluate team chemistry, but the Red Sox have it. This is a team that plays much bigger than the sum of its parts. Unlike the Yankees, the Red Sox don’t rely on their 1-4 hitters to produce offense. They are deep 1-9 and on the bench. Their pitching is phenomenal, better than the Yankees (yes, even with Big Unit), I think. These guys won’t choke under the pressure, and I suspect the Yankees bandwagon has only served to spur them to want to win … As for the Yankees … don’t you just think that these guys are going to implode? Seriously. This team is too expensive, too talented not to win the World Series. If they don’t play .600 baseball all season long I think things will be rough in the Bronx. The mix of egos and the strain of blowing it against the Red Sox last year is too much. I’ll also chime in that the Yankees aren’t deep enough to produce runs with the consistency of the Red Sox. As we saw in the ALCS, when the Big Four go cold the Yankees are in trouble. This is a team with below-average defense, which will cost them. Remember: the Yankees out-performed their pythagorean win-loss record by 12 games in 2004. Their 101 wins were a mirage. The '04 team had holes and so does this one … Can one of the second-tier teams catch the Yankees and Red Sox? I think the Orioles could have the talent to close the gap and make a run on second place. I don’t think the acquisition of Sammy Sosa matters much, aside from putting fans in the seats, but the Orioles have some terrific players, including a potential MVP candidate in Miguel Tejada (2005 proj: .344 OBP / .499 SLG, 108 Runs Created). Watch and see if the Orioles can keep within a game or two of the Yankee / Red Sox jauggernauts in late summer. It could happen … I’m very intruiged to see what the Toronto Blue Jays will do in the next few years. The team is poised to expand their payroll and have cleaned house, with some good young talent on the roster. I don’t think they’ll be very good this year, but I expect them to make a splash in the winter deals for 2006 and they could have a hand in some deals this summer … Abandon all hope, ye Devil Rays fans. Despite a brief run in the summer, this franchise has been baseball’s leper colony: love the weather in Tampa but hate the team. They have some terrific talent on the roster, but things just won’t change for this team unless the Yankees and Red Sox implode and force themselves to rebuild.

Tomorrow: AL Central